Thèses sur le sujet « Demography – Economic aspects »

This thesis is a collection of three essays on the effect of demographic changes on the economy. In Chapter 1, I empirically document a non-monotonic effect of an aging workforce on the adoption of ICT (new technology) and on productivity which I rationalize using a task-based OLG model. Initially, the aging of the population has a positive effect on productivity as it reduces the labor supply and increases the capital stock triggering the adoption of new (labor-saving) technologies. However, as young workers (with a comparative advantage in the use of new technologies) become scarce, further aging depresses the adoption of new technologies and reduces productivity. The model also provides policy recommendations regarding the optimal retirement age. In Chapter 2, co-authored with Max Brès, we analyze the effect of a change in the age composition of consumers on sector aggregates. To identify the effect coming from the demand side of the economy, we use a shift-share IV approach and instrument the change in the age composition of demand with foreign demographics. We find that only middle-aged consumers are associated with higher prices, lower production, and lower productivity suggesting that the age composition of demand affects the economy through changes in the market structure. In Chapter 3, co-authored with Max Brès, we propose a model with age-specific search costs and elasticity of substitution to highlight the mechanisms behind the empirical results in Chapter 2. The model shows that an increase in the share of middle-aged consumers (who have high search costs and low elasticity of substitution) leads to an increase in both within-sector and between-sectors competition, increasing prices and reducing production and productivity. To capture general equilibrium effects and substitution across sectors, we nest the calibrated sector-level model within a multi-sector general equilibrium framework. We find that the general equilibrium model substantially dampens the sector-level effects due to lower substitution across sectors. Fitting the model using US demographic data, we find that in the period 1995-2004, as the share of middle-aged increased, the age demand channel contributed to a reduction in US GDP growth, while in the period 2005-2019, as the middle-aged grew old, the age demand channel had a positive effect on US GDP growth.
1 Workforce Aging and Technology Adoption 2 The effect of a change in the Age Composition of Consumers: a Shift- Share IV empirical approach 3 The effect of a change in the Age Composition of Consumers: a Theo-retical Framework

Thesis (DCom)--Stellenbosch University, 2000.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: It is remarkable that population, which is at the centre of the economic problem - the Wealth if not the Poverty of Nations - has received scant attention in economic research in South Africa. Which is probably why we can have a NEW - so designated in the Draft Report - population policy propounded by government (in 1997) which manifests little appreciation of the economics of population. This dissertation is an attempt to demonstrate why the void should be filled and to bring to light specific topics within the broader subject matter that could be fruitfully researched. The demographic scene in South Africa lends itself to a telling demonstration of the economic effects of population movements by way of contrasting the experience of the high fertility, youthful Black population - with a total fertility rate of around 37 after having been 6,75 in the 1950s - and that of the demographically older non-Blacks, among whom the Whites exhibit a fertility level way below the replacement rate of 2,1, while that of the Asians (Indians) and Coloureds has almost reached that rate. Since the former has a share of more than a dominant three-quarters in the aggregate South African population, the emphasis is inevitably on the economic consequences of rapid population growth and its attendant demographic magnitudes: fertility, mortality, migration, age and sex composition, spatial distribution and, what is called "economic quality" of the population as manifested in its supply of enterprise. The analysis is presented in the traditional supply and demand paradigm. Supply is examined by linking demographic forces to the five factors of production whose co-operation is responsible for the generation of the national product: entrepreneurship, (ordinary) labour, natural resources, technology and capital. The population has to generate an adequate supply of entrepreneurs, and the two human factors of production have to have one or more of the non-human factors at their disposal to accommodate the population economically. Proliferating human numbers can be destructive of natural resources, and in conflict with the formation of capital, the accumulation of technology and their potential economic welfare-enhancing operation. The demand aspects are analysed by linking on to the four macro demand components in the national accounts system: Household consumption, Government consumption, Investment (visa- vis saving) and foreign trade. Some of the issues discussed are: the stability deriving from a population elasticity of demand close to 1,0; the comparative significance of the population versus the affluence factor; the role of high fertility in the acquisition, at the election polls, of economic power via political power, and its consequences for the diversion of demand; the capital absorbed in "demographic investments"; and the significance of the South African factor endowment for its foreign trade. From the above analyses conclusions could be drawn about econormc growth, poverty, unemployment and the economic value of a life. In human populations, in sub-Saharan Africa at least, quantity is the adversary of quality.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Dit is merkwaardig dat Bevolking, wat aan die middelpunt staan van die Rykdom van Volkere indien nie van die Armoede nie, so weinig aandag in die ekonomiese literatuur van Suid-Afrika geniet. Dit is waarskynlik waarom die regering in 1997 'n NUWE bevolkingsbeleid - so gespesifiseer in die konsepwitskrif - kan voorstel wat weinig aanduiding toon van 'n waardering vir die Ekonomie van Demografiese tendense. Hierdie dissertasie is 'n poging om te demonstreer waarom die leemte gevul moet word, en om spesifieke onderwerpe, binne die breëre raamwerk, vir verdere ondersoek aan die lig te bring. Die demografiese toneel in Suid-Afrika leen homself tot 'n treffende demonstrasie van die ekonomiese gevolge van demografiese tendense by wyse van 'n kontrastering van die ondervinding van die snelgroeiende, jeugdige Swart bevolking - met 'n totale fertiliteitsyfer (TFS) van nagenoeg 3.7, nadat dit gedurende die vyftigerjare 6,75 was - en dié van die demografies-ouer nie-Swart bevolking, onder wie die Blankes, met 'n TFS wat reeds ver benede verplasingskoers van 2,1 is, en Asiërs (Indiërs) en Kleurlinge wat alreeds byna daardie peil bereik het. Aangesien eersgenoemde etniese groep ook nog 'n oorheersende aandeel van meer as driekwart in die totale SA bevolkingsgrootte het, is dit onvermydelik dat die nadruk sal val op die ekonomiese gevolge van snelle bevolkingsgroei met die daarmee samehangende demografiese groothede: fertiliteit, mortaliteit, migrasie, leeftyd- en geslagsamestelling, geografiese verspreiding en ook "ekonomiese kwaliteit" soos dit in die aanbod van ondernemerskap gemanifesteer word. Die analise word in die tradisionele vraag en aanbod paradigma aangebied. Aanbod word ontleed deur demografiese faktore te koppel met die vyf produksiefaktore waarvan die samewerking vir die skepping van die nasionale produk verantwoordelik is: ondernemers, arbeid, natuurlike hulpbronne, tegnologie en kapitaal. Die bevolking moet 'n voldoende aantalondernemers verwek, en die twee menslike produksiefaktore benodig die bystand van een of meer van die niemenslike faktore, om die bevolking ekonomies te kan akkommodeer. Vermenigvuldigende mensegetalle kan vernietigend inwerk op natuurlike hulpbronne en kan in konflik verkeer met kapitaalvorming en tegnologie-akkumulasie en hul ekonomiese welsynsbevorderende werking. Die vraag-aspekte word analiseer deur aan te sluit by die vier makro vraagkomponente in die nasionale boekhoudingstelsel : huishoudelike verbruik, regeringskonsumpsie, belegging (vis-a-vis besparing) en buitlandse handel. Aangeleenthede wat onder die loep geneem word, sluit, onder andere, die volgende in: stabiliteit wat voorspruit uit 'n bevolkingselastisiteit van vraag wat nagenoeg 1 is; die vergelykende invloed van ekonomiese oorvloed teenoor die menslike getallefaktor; die rol van hoë fertiliteit in die verkryging van ekonomiese mag deur middel van die stembus en sy gevolge vir die omleiding van vraag; die kapitaal wat in "demografiese beleggings" geabsorbeer word; en die betekenis van die Suid-Afrikaanse produksiefaktorbegunstiging vir sy internasionale handel. Uit bogenoemde ontledings kan gevolgtrekkinge gemaak word ten opsigte van ekonomiese groei, armoede, werkloosheid en die ekonomiese waarde van 'n menselewe. In menslike bevolkings - minstens sover dit sub-Sahara-Afrika betref - staan kwantiteit in 'n adversatiewe houding teenoor kwaliteit.

The outstanding characteristics of the population geography of the Sudan are seen in its vastness of the area, its low population density, its high population fertility, decreasing mortality rates and uneven distribution of developmental projects among its regions. All these have important effects upon the economic and de mographic characteristics of its population. They also underline the uneven distribution of the country's population, as a result of which large-scale migration movements occur. Three types of population movements in the Sudan are discussed; inter-provincial movements, rural-urban migration and seasonal migration for cotton picking in the Gezira scheme. In the discussion of the first type, the analysis covers issues related to the general levels of movements amongst the 18 provinces of the country, rates of in- and out-migration in each province and their net migration balances. Also, it discusses the spatial structure of the movement, and some gaining and losing provinces are singled out. The impacts of the movements and their selective nature are also revealed. Rural-urban migration to the capital city of Khartoum is studied using the 1983 census data, other published data and the author's 1988/89 survey of migrant households in the city. The scale of the migration and the characteristics of the migrants are analyzed. Additionally, the structure of the migrant households, literacy, occupation contrasts and links with the village are investigated. The reasons behind the migration decision and the reward of the rural-urban migration are also shown. Seasonal migration is discussed to disclose the nature of the movement and its patterns which are associated with the cotton picking operation in the Gezira scheme. The types of labour involved and labour market conditions are also investigated. The findings verified the seasonality of the movement to the scheme and the consistent relationship between migrants and tenants in the scheme.

This thesis explores the dialectical relationship between gender and international student mobility (ISM). The focus is on the experiences of Indian students across three space-time locations: before the students left India; while abroad in Toronto; and their return to New Delhi. The value of this research is two-fold. Firstly, my research helps to fill the lacuna in ISM research that examines the phenomenon through a gender optic. Secondly, there is increasing interest in Canada and other countries – evident in the media and government policy – in international students from India. The study is located at the nexus of gender and mobility scholarship; it adopts Gendered Geographies of Power as a foundational framework. The research employed a multi-sited, mixed-methods approach to data collection. The data collection in the field sites of Toronto, Canada and New Delhi, India consisted of in-depth semi-structured interviews and participant observations. An online survey was mounted for the duration of the fieldwork to gather data on the broader population of Indian students abroad. The results of this survey provide context for the discussion in three empirical chapters. The first of the three empirical chapters explores the impact of gender relations in shaping motivations to study abroad. The second chapter examines how relations of power in and across multiple spaces (re)shape the students‟ performances of gender identities in everyday life in Toronto. The final empirical chapter examines the students‟ experience of return mobility as they attempt to adapt to a different (but familiar) gender context again. My research contributes to the growing body of scholarship on ISM as well as that on gender and migration. By employing a gendered perspective, the indepth interviews as well as ethnographic research reveals the shifting subjectivities of the migrants as they simultaneously negotiate multiple ethnic and kinship interactions in their everyday lived experiences. Secondly, the online survey presents the gendered class configurations of the socio-economic background of the Indian international students. Lastly, the „return‟ experiences of the students are differentiated by gender: more women than men found it harder to (re)negotiate their gender-expected performances in New Delhi. Furthermore, the „return mobility‟ of men appears to be more permanent than the return mobility of women.

China is growing old before it is growing affluent. This situation is not unique to China; at least three other countries are in the same situation. While some of these had family planning campaigns, none had a one-child policy which implies that one-child policy is not the direct cause of this predicament. While China’s working-age share of the population has peaked, any shortages of low-skill labor currently observed in China are primarily caused by the hukou system and its barriers to labor mobility. A reform of the hukou system would secure ample supplies of migrant labor even in the face of mildly declining working-age share of the population. The absence of reforms could mean the arrival of a policy-induced Lewis Turning Point, prompting a premature and potentially counterproductive reorientation of industry. China does not yet possess an advantage in capital and technology intensive production and thus risks falling into the middle-income trap if the reorientation of industry takes place too early. If the Lewis Point can be postponed and the current rate of capital stock growth can be maintained for another decade or two, China might be able to avoid the middle-income trap. Both China’s and Japan’s current pension systems are unsustainable and their PAYGO nature is detrimental to long-run economic growth, especially so for aging societies. It is possible for China to make the system sustainable in the long if reforms are implemented while the transition costs are manageable. Although China is aging, the pace will be relatively slow until 2030. It will still take many years before the country is as old as Japan is a present. A low debt-to-GDP ratio also offers China more flexibility than Japan currently enjoys.
published_or_final_version
China Development Studies
Master
Master of Arts in China Development Studies

Dans un contexte de changements démographiques, ma thèse de doctorat vise à clarifier deux questions principales : i)comment évaluer le progrès des nations lorsque les populations diffèrent en taille, longévité et répartition des revenus ? et ii)quels sont les effets de la fécondité et de la mortalité sur la croissance économique en Afrique subsaharienne ? La première partie (chapitres 1 et 2) élucide la manière dont les changements en taille de la population, en longévité et en répartition des revenus pourraient être socialement évalués, tandis que la seconde partie (chapitre 3) fournit un cadre de politique publique et des éclairages sur les moyens de réaliser une dividende démographique dans le contexte de l’Afrique subsaharienne. J’adopte deux approches différentes pour aborder ces questions. La première partie utilise une méthode welfariste qui développe et applique (sur l’Afrique subsaharienne) des fonctions et critères d’évaluation sociale intertemporelle adaptés aux populations de taille et de durée de vie variables. La deuxième partie utilise une approche économétrique qui développe et estime un modèle d’équations simultanées des déterminants de la mortalité, de la fécondité et de la performance économique en utilisant des données de panel des pays de l’Afrique subsaharienne. Le chapitre 1 explore les principes axiomatiques et welfaristes d’évaluation du bien-être social dans un cadre intertemporel. Il apporte des réponses à certaines des limites des méthodes existantes dans la littérature, en proposant en particulier une fonction d’évaluation sociale qui échappe à la conclusion répugnante temporelle, qui est neutre vis-à-vis de la fragmentation des vies et qui satisfait la cohérence temporelle de niveau critique. Pour ce faire, nous caractérisons une fonction d’utilité intertemporelle de niveau critique qui évalue la vie de manière périodique. Pour palier les controverses sur l’actualisation ou pas des utilités à travers le temps, deux versions de la fonction sont développées, l’une avec actualisation et l’autre sans. Le chapitre 2 met l’accent sur la manière d’évaluer le progrès des nations lorsque les populations diffèrent en taille, en longévité et en répartition des revenus. Le cadre d’analyse est ensuite appliqué au contexte démographique (particulier) de l’Afrique subsaharienne. Les résultats indiquent que la contribution de la taille de la population au bien-être social dépend des considérations éthiques concernant le choix d’un niveau critique au-delà duquel une vie est considérée comme digne d’être vécue (ou améliorant le bien-être social). La durée de vie n’a pas un effet significatif sur le bien-être social avant la transition démographique. L’explosion démographique observée au cours du dernier siècle en Afrique subsaharienne a détérioré le bien-être social pour des valeurs de niveau critique supérieures à 180$ par année, soit environ la moitié du seuil bien connu de pauvreté d’un dollar par jour. Cela corrobore l’idée souvent émise selon laquelle le ralentissement de la croissance démographique en Afrique subsaharienne n’ élèverait pas seulement le niveau de vie moyen, mais augmenterait également le bien-être social en général. Le chapitre 3 développe et estime un modèle économétrique des déterminants conjointes de la fécondité, de la mortalité et de la performance économique en Afrique subsaharienne afin d’identifier les actions de politique publique pour accélérer la transition démographique dans la région et par conséquent réaliser son corollaire de dividende démographique. L’analyse s’appuie sur un modèle économétrique d’équations simultanées utilisant des données de panel multi-pays pour la période 1960-2010. Pour faire face au problème d’endogénéité, nous adoptons la méthode des variables instrumentales en exploitant différentes sources de variations exogènes du revenu par tête, de la fécondité et de la mortalité. Les résultats montrent que chaque année supplémentaire en espérance de vie à la naissance implique une croissance du revenu par tête de 13,1%. En outre, un doublement du revenu par tête entraîne une augmentation de la longévité de 6,3 ans. Toutefois, les relations entre la fécondité et le revenu par tête et l’espérance de vie à la naissance ressortent être ambigues en raison certainement de la dépendance des économies de l’Afrique subsaharienne aux ressources naturelles et au commerce international. Nos résultats soulignent la nécessité de promouvoir la transformation structurelle des économies de l’Afrique subsaharienne afin d’accélérer la transition démographique dans la région et réaliser une dividende démographique.
In a context of demographic changes, my PhD thesis aims to clarify two main questions: i)how the progress of nations can be evaluated when populations differ in size, longevity and income distribution? and ii)what are the effects of fertility and mortality on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)? The first part (chapters 1 and 2) elucidates how changes in population size, longevity and income distribution can be socially evaluated while the second part (chapter 3) provides a public policy framework and insights on how the demographic dividend can be captured in the Sub-Saharan Africa context. I adopt two different approaches to analyse these questions. The first part uses a welfarist method that develops and applies (to SSA) intertemporal social evaluation functions and criteria suitable to variable populations. The second part uses an econometric approach that develops and estimates a simultaneous equations model of the determinants of mortality, fertility and economic performance using country-level panel data from SSA. Chapter 1 explores the use of axiomatic and welfarist principles to assess social welfare in an intertemporal framework. It attempts to overcome some of the limits of existing methods in the literature, in particular by avoiding a temporal repugnant conclusion, by neither penalizing nor favoring life fragmentation, and by satisfying critical-level temporal consistency. It does this by characterizing a critical-level lifetime utility function that values life periodically. To address some of the controversies in discounting utilities across time, two alternative versions of the function are developed, one with discounting and one without. Chapter 2 focusses on how the progress of nations can be evaluated when populations differ in size, longevity and income distributions. The framework is applied to the (particular) demographic context of SSA. The findings indicate that the contribution of population size to social welfare depends on ethical considerations regarding the choice of a critical level above which a life is considered to be worth living (or social welfare improving). Length of life does not have a significant effect on social welfare prior to the demographic transition. SSA’s demographic explosion over the last century has worsened social welfare for critical-level values greater than $180 per year, i.e. roughly half the well-known dollar-a-day poverty line. This supports the often heard view that slowing down demographic growth in SSA may not only increase average living standards but may also raise overall social welfare. Chapter 3 develops and estimates an econometric model of the joint determinants of fertility, mortality and economic performance in SSA in order to identify public policy actions to accelerate the demographic transition in the region and consequently to achieve its corollary demographic dividend. The analysis builds on a simultaneous equations econometric model using multi-country panel data for the period 1960 - 2010. To deal with endogeneity, we use the instrumental variable approach, exploiting different sources of exogenous variations of per capita income, fertility and mortality. The results show that each additional year of life expectancy at birth implies a growth of per capita income of 13.1%. Also, a doubling of per capita income leads to a rise in longevity of 6.3 years. However the relationships between fertility and both per capita income and life expectancy at birth appear to be ambiguous probably due to the dependency of SSA economies on natural resources and international trade. Our findings point to the necessity of fostering the structural transformation of SSA economies in order to accelerate the demographic transition in the region and to capture the demographic dividend.

This study determines how economic, political, and socio-demographic factors impact the parliamentary election outcomes in central and eastern European countries in transition period. A one-way fixed-effect method has been applied to analyze two main economic models. The dependent variables are share of the Western-oriented and traditional-oriented parties. Data of sixteen countries have been used in the thesis. According to the results of this study, it is possible to conclude that outcomes of parliamentary elections in central and eastern European countries depended on political and socio-demographic factors from I 990-2001. Factors such as loans, received from the United States, per capita in the pre-election year, as a measure of external pressure, and share of agriculture in GDP, as a measure of country`s level of development, demonstrate consistent significance in both variations of the model.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2004.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: HIV/AIDS is one of the biggest challenges faced by many countries in this century. The rate of infection is rapidly increasing and more and more people are getting ill and dying from AIDS. Of all the people living with AIDS in the world, seven out of ten live in Sub-Saharan Africa. Namibia is one of the top five most HIV/AIDS affected countries in the world. There is therefore no question about the urgent need to accelerate actions to reduce prevalence, expand care and support and extend access to treatment. AIDS is eroding decades of progress made in extending life expectancy; thus hundreds of adults are dying young or in early middle age. The national strategic plan (2004) on HIV/AIDS indicated that the average life expectancy in Namibia is now 42 years, when it could have been 60 without AIDS. A 2003 study on the impact of HIV/AIDS on Windhoek indicated that the antenatal HIV/AIDS prevalence rate in Windhoek for 2002 was 27%, while the national prevalence rate was estimated at 22.3%. The prevalence rate for Windhoek is expected to reach its peak at 38% during 2005. Even though HIV/AIDS will have a diminishing effect on population growth, Windhoek's population is expected to continue growing, particular as a result of inward migration, but at a slower pace. Similarly, HIV/AIDS will have an abating effect on GDP growth as the virus will mainly affect the economic active and available labour force of the population and result in increased labour costs and skilled labour shortages. The impact on the informal sector is potentially more damaging than on the formal economic sector, as the majority of micro- enterprises and informal businesses are build around one individual. As the breadwinner dies, household income and expenditures levels deteriorate and increase poverty levels, because households within the city are very dependent on family structures to support their income levels. Informal settlements are also more volatile to HIV transmission and the majority of HIV infected individuals are likely to be found within these areas as the populations is poorer, crowded, has fewer social services facilities and is more likely migratory compared to those in affluent formal settlements. Considering that the incubation period of HIV/AIDS from infection to death takes about ten years, the real impact of current HIV infections in Windhoek will only be experienced during 2010. Health services will have to attend to a greater demand for curative services as well as to social care and support programs. Social welfare programmes will need to find ways of caring for a large population of HIV/AIDS orphans. Municipalities can playa critically important role in addressing HIV/AIDS at a local level as they are at the interface of community and government. They are ideally placed to playa coordinating and facilitating role that is needed to make sure that partnerships are built to bring prevention and care programmes to every community affected by AIDS. Therefore, in order to succeed in confronting HIV/AIDS, it is important to work closely with all levels of government as well as working with local partners in civil society that are fighting HIV/AIDS at the community level. By taking action against HIV/AIDS, municipalities are securing the future of their towns and communities.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: MIV/VIGS is een van die grootste uitdagings wat baie lande hierdie eeu in die gesig staar. Die koers van infeksie is vinnig aan die toeneem en al hoe meer mense word siek en sterf as gevolg van VIGS. Van al die mense wat met VIGS lewe in die wêreld, bly sewe uit tien in sub-Sahara Afrika. Namibië is een van die vyf mees MIV/VIGS geaffekteerde lande in die wêreld. Derhalwe is daar geen twyfel rakende die noodsaaklikheid om daadwerklike aksies te bewerkstellig om die voorkoms te verminder, sorg en ondersteuning te verhoog en toegang na behandeling uit te brei. VIGS vernietig dekades van groei behaal in die verlenging van lewensverwagting; dus sterf honderde volwassenes vroeg of gedurende hul middeljare. Die nasionale strategiese plan (2004) rakende MIV/VIGS toon dat die gemiddelde lewensverwagting in Namibië huidiglik 42 jaar is instede van 60 sonder VIGS. 'n Studie onderneem gedurende 2003, rakende die effek van MIV/VIGS in Windhoek, dui aan dat die voorgeboorte MIV/VIGS voorkoms koers 27% vir 2002 was, terwyl die nasionale voorkoms koers slegs 22.3% was. Daar word verwag dat die voorkoms koers vir Windhoek sy maksimum van 38% sal bereik gedurende 2005. Alhoewel MIV/VIGS 'n negatiewe effek op bevolkingsgroei groei gaan het, sal Windhoek se inwoners getalle steeds groei, alhoewel teen 'n stadiger koers, as gevolg van inwaartse migrasie. Terselfdertyd, gaan MIV/VIGS 'n verminderde effek het op die groei van die Bruto Binnelandse Produk (BBP), omdat die virus hoofsaaklik die ekonomiese aktiewe en beskikbare arbeidsmag van die bevolking affekteer wat as gevolg hiervan 'n verhoging in arbeidskoste en tekort aan geskoolde arbeid het. Die effek op die informele sektore is potensieel meer skadelik as op die formele ekonomiese faktore, aangesien die meeste klein en informele besighede rondom een persoon gebou is. lndien die broodwinner sterf, versleg die vlakke van huishoudelike inkomste en uitgawes wat lei tot verhoogde armoede, omdat huishoudings in die stad baie afhanklik is op familie strukture om hulle inkomste te ondersteun. Informele vestigings is meer kwesbaar in die oordrag van MIV en die meerderheid van die MIV geïnfekteerde individue word gewoonlik in hierdie areas aangetref omdat die bevolking armer is, meer persone huisves, minder welsyn dienste fasiliteite het en meer swerwend is in vergelyking met die meer welgestelde formele vestigings. As in ag geneem word dat die ontkiemings periode van MIV/VIGS vanaf infeksie tot en met sterfte omtrent tien jaar neem, sal die werklike effek van die huidige VIGS besmettings in Windhoek slegs ervaar word gedurende 2010. Gesondheidsdienste sal moet aandag skenk aan 'n groter aanvraag vir geneeslike dienste sowel as sosiale sorg en ondersteunings programme. Gemeenskaplike welsyn programme sal maniere moet vind om vir 'n groot populasie van MIV/VIGS weeskinders te sorg. Munisipaliteite kan 'n belangrike rol speel in die aanspreek van die MIV/VIGS epidemie op 'n plaaslike vlak omdat hulle die skakel is tussen die gemeenskap en die regering. Hulle is ideaal geplaas om 'n koordineerende en fasiliterende rol te speel wat nodig is om seker te maak dat vennootskappe gebou word om voorkomings en versorgings programme te lewer aan elke gemeenskap wat deur MIV/VIGS geraak word. Dus, om sukses te behaal in die bekamping van MIV/VIGS , is dit belangrik om nou saam te werk met alle vlakke van die regering sowel as met plaaslike vennote in die gemeenskap wat MIV/VIGS bekamp op gemeenskapsvlak. Deur aksie te neem teen MIV/VIGS , kan munisipaliteite die toekoms van hulle dorpe en gemeenskappe verseker.

Many historically disadvantaged South Africans are entering into universities, where they are expected to perform academically not only to secure themselves a continued place at university, but also to secure themselves a place in the competitive job-market post university. Not only have these individuals been disadvantaged by an inferior schooling system, which is the legacy of apartheid, but they also struggle against the grasp of poverty, attempting to sustain themselves financially in order to afford the necessities for their survival, while still attempting to cope academically. Resilience has been presented as a process that helps individuals deal effectively with stressful events and adverse conditions. An attempt is therefore made to investigate whether resilience plays this role in the experience of disadvantaged students at university, where academic performance and adjustment represent the expected measures of coping. The aim of the study was therefore to explore the role of resilience constructs in the relationship between socio-economic and demographic variables and academic coping. The study is based within the broad framework of Psychofortology, which is the science of psychological strengths. The resilience constructs used included fortitude (measured by the Fortitude Questionnaire), hardiness (measured by the Personal Views Survey) and sense of coherence (measured by the Sense of Coherence Scale). Demographic variables included age, sex, language, town (urban/rural), with household income as an indicator of socio-economic status. Academic coping (outcome) was measured using students&rsquo
academic performance (average grade) and their adjustment to university (measured by the Student Adaptation to College Questionnaire). Participants included 164 third year Psychology students from the University of the Western Cape. Results indicate statistically significant relationships between various demographic and resilience variables
between various demographic and outcome variables
and between various resilience and outcome variables. Resilience variables were also found to play a role in the relationship between demographic and outcome variables, as various resilience variables emerged as significant predictors of outcome variables, or as having either direct, moderating, mediating or indirect effects on the relationship between demographic and outcome variables. Research suggesting the health-sustaining and stress-reducing (buffering) roles of resilience constructs, as well resilience constructs as influencing the perceptions of adverse conditions or stressors is therefore supported by these findings. Limitations of the study were also discussed, as well as recommendations for future research put forward.

Determining the effects of military service on those who volunteer is of vital importance in an age when service may lead to the loss of bodily function or life. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of military service with consideration for the demographic statuses of race, gender, and educational attainment on economic outcomes. Data for this study came from the Current Population Survey July 2010 with Veterans Supplement (N=83,000). Results from this study suggest that some veterans, namely those of minority racial status and lower educational attainment benefit from their military serve by achieving increased levels of household income as compared to similar non-veterans. Conversely, non-Hispanic White veterans and those with higher levels of educational attainment suffer negative consequences to levels of household income. Furthermore, differences among veterans were assessed. These results provide further insight into the experiences of veterans in the United States.

L'impact de l'activité économique et de l'augmentation de la population sur l'environnement soulève de profondes questions sur l'avenir des sociétés humaines et des ressources environnementales. En ceci, les "Limites de la Croissance" ("Limits to Growth", Meadows, Meadows, Behrens et Randers, 1974) mettent en garde les sociétés humaines contre la possibilité d'un effondrement social si les tendances actuelles d'exploitation de ressources naturelles et de dégradation de l'environnement suivent leur court. La richesse de la nature étant primordiale à la richesse des nations, cette thèse en sciences économiques au travers de quatre contributions théoriques et empiriques traite de la possibilité d'une cohabitation pacifique des sociétés humaines avec la nature et discute des politiques de conservation de la nature. Nos résultats théoriques et empiriques montrent d'une part que l'expansion de l'habitat humain se fait au détriment des autres espèces biologiques (animales et végétales). D'autre part, nous montrons que les efforts actuels de conservation des espèces biologiques sont fortement orientés vers des forets dont la richesse en biodiversité s'avère douteuse. Finalement, nous montrons qu'une utilisation de plus en plus croissante des énergies primaires, donc à forts impacts écologiques, est encore à attendre des pays en développement. En termes de politiques environnementales, nos travaux appellent davantage à la réduction de l'empreinte écologique des sociétés humaines. Ceci inclut : Une exploitation favorisant la régénération des forêts et non la réduction des aires déjà couvertes ; L'élargissement des aires protégées surtout dans les pays en développement ; Une incitation des individus à orienter les préférences vers la demande de biens à faibles empreintes écologiques
The impact of economic activities and increasing population on the environment raise profound interrogations towards the future of human societies and environmental resources. In this, the "Limits to Growth" (Meadows, Meadows, Behrens and Randers, 1974) warn human societies about the possibility of social collapse if current trends of exploitation of natural resources and environmental degradation remain unchanged. The wealth of nature being essential to the wealth of nations, this thesis in economics through four theoretical and empirical contributions addresses the possibility of a peaceful cohabitation between human and nature and discusses conservation policies of nature. Our theoretical and empirical results show on the one hand that human habitat is being expanded to the detriment of other biological species (animal and plant). On the other hand, we show that current efforts to conserve biological species are strongly oriented towards forests whose richness in biodiversity is doubtful. Finally, we show that an increasingly growing consumption of primary energies, therefore with strong ecological impacts, is still to be expected from developing countries. In terms of environmental policies, our work advocates for a reduction of the ecological footprint of human societies. This includes policies promoting forest regeneration and not the reduction of covered areas, expansion of protected areas, especially in developing countries and incentives for individuals to orient preferences towards the demand for goods with low ecological impacts

As the popularity for seafood in the United States continues to grow, information about consumer patterns of fishery products will be a valuable aid to various groups in the seafood industry. The primary objective of this dissertation is to provide quantitative information, notably own price, income, and household size elasticity measures, about consumer behavior relating to specific fish and shellfish products. The methodology used in this study is as follows: (1) organize and analyze at-home seafood consumption data for specific finfish and shellfish species by three product forms (canned, fresh and fresh frozen, and other prepared) from the 1981 Seafood Consumption Survey: (i) finfish -- cod, flounder (or sole), haddock, herring, mackerel, perch, pollock, salmon, sardines, snapper, tuna, whiting, total finfish, and (ii) shellfish -- clams, crabs, oysters, scallops, shrimp, and total shellfish; (2) identify and assess the factors that affect household expenditure on these products for home consumption, and (3) compare the results of this research to those from previously published works. Price and coupon value are the dominant factors in explaining the variation of household expenditure on seafood commodities for at-home consumption. All price elasticities are negative and in the inelastic range except for fresh and fresh frozen oysters and canned tuna. These results suggest that for almost all shellfish and finfish species, unit percentage changes in product availability lead to greater than unit percentage changes in product prices. Coupon values, as expected, have significant positive impacts on household expenditures for seafood commodities for at-home consumption. Except for scallops, all shellfish products are normal goods, while the nature of the income effects for finfish products is mixed. Generally, household size elasticities are not only positive but also less than unity. Significant differences exist in household expenditures for fishery products due to geographic region, urbanization, employment status and age of the household manager, race, and season. Finally, households spend significantly less on all categories of canned fishery products, but more on fresh and fresh frozen shellfish, at the supermarket and the grocery store than at other seafood outlets. Occupation and education of the household head and religious affiliation are not generally statistically important factors in explaining the variation in household expenditure on fish and shellfish products.
Ph. D.

A matched case-control study was carried out to identify the factors associated with the nutritional status of children in Livingstone district, Zambia. A trained field researcher collected data on demographic, feeding practices and socio-economic factors in matched groups of underweight children and normal weight children from the mothers/caregivers of the children. Interviews, using a structured pre-tested questionnaire, were used to obtain the data. All children aged from six to fifty-nine months admitted at Livingstone General Hospital during the months of October to December, 2003 with a weight for age below &ndash
2SD from the median of the reference population formed the underweight children (cases). The total was 47 children. The cases were then matched according to sex and age to 47 normal weight children attending the under five clinic at Livingstone General Hospital during the same months, with a weight for age above &ndash
2SD from the median of the reference population (controls). The final sample was 94 children. Weights were recorded using the same scale in the outpatient&rsquo
s department prior to admission and during the under five clinic session. Interviews then took place in a separate room after the clinic nurse had attended them. A separate visit was then made to the homes of the children on a different day. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were used to measure strengths of associations. Results revealed that the basic causes of underweight were the poor economic state of the country, unfavorable policies and insufficient government support in the areas of health, education, agriculture, housing and employment. Underlying causes were inadequate access to food, inadequate care of children, poor access to health services and unhealthy living environments, while immediate causes were poor food intake and disease. Low educational and literacy levels of the mothers/caregivers, unemployment and lack of sufficient finances to access basic necessities such as food, housing and health contributed to underweight.

La population - en son sens originel de processus de peuplement - est un sujet étonnamment absent de l'énorme volume d’études sur Adam Smith. Ce thème était au centre de la philosophie morale et de l'économie politique du 18e siècle, les deux domaines auxquels les contributions de Smith sont les plus connues. Son importance dans l’œuvre de Smith a été obscurcie au 20e siècle par une focalisation étroite sur les questions économiques dans la littérature secondaire. Pour une analyse intégrale de son œuvre, il est essentiel que la place centrale du peuplement soit révélée. Trois thèmes aujourd'hui considérés comme essentiels au projet de Smith sont ainsi intimement liés à la population : le lien entre division du travail et étendue du marché ; la théorie des quatre stades du progrès de la société ; et le lien entre développement rural et urbain, lui-même au centre du plaidoyer de Smith pour la liberté du commerce. Le marché est un concept aujourd'hui assimilé au fonctionnement du système économique capitaliste ; pour Smith, il décrivait la faculté de commercer, aux vecteurs essentiellement démographiques et géographiques. Le progrès de la société est à la fois cause et effet de la croissance de la population. En son sein se trouve l'interrelation symbiotique entre le développement rural et urbain que Smith appelait le «progrès naturel de l'opulence». Adopter l’optique smithienne plutôt que néo-malthusienne dans l'examen des dynamiques de population et de développement - y compris l'analyse de la transition démographique - conduit alors à une reconsidération fondamentale des interactions causales entre mortalité, fécondité, richesse et variables institutionnelles
Population - in its original sense of the process of peopling - is a topic surprisingly absent from the huge volume of scholarship on Adam Smith. This topic was central to 18th century moral philosophy and political economy, the two fields Smith most famously contributed to. Its importance in Smith’s work was obscured in the 20th century by a narrow focus on economic matters in the secondary literature. For an undivided analysis of Smith’s oeuvre it is crucial that the central position of the peopling process be brought to light. Three topics that are today recognised as essential to Smith’s project are thus intimately connected to population: the relation between the division of labour and the extent of the market; the stadial theory of progress; and the link between the development of town and country, itself central to Smith’s advocacy of the freedom of trade. The market is a concept read today through an institutional lens linking it to the functioning of the capitalist economic system; Smith conceived of it as facility for trade, with essentially demographic and geographic vectors. The progress of society is both cause and effect of the growth of population. At its core is the symbiotic interrelationship between rural and urban development that Smith called the “natural progress of opulence”. In turn, looking at dynamics of population and development - including the analysis of the demographic transition - through a Smithian rather than a neo-Malthusian lens leads to a fundamental reconsideration of causal interactions between mortality, fertility, wealth and institutional variables

L'Homme est le bénéficiaire ultime et l'intrant essentiel du développement et de la croissance. Le capital humain identifié comme moteur de la croissance économique est fortement lié à la variable démographique. L'institution familiale par ses décisions de fécondité et d'investissement en éducation de ses membres est un préambule pour la formation du capital humain. L'intérêt est porté, alors, à l'interaction entre la quantité et la qualité de l'Homme. Notre étude de la croissance économique est conduite par l'analyse de la fécondité comme variable de croissance économique. Elle cherche à dégager les influences de la fécondité notamment par ses interactions avec l'éducation dans l'explication des performances économiques. Grâce à des analyses: macro et microéconomique, nous vérifions la présence d'une association éducation-fécondité et sa contribution dans le processus de la croissance pour la Tunisie. Une analyse quantitative dynamique du lien entre la fécondité, l'éducation et la croissance économique aussi bien à long terme qu'à court terme au cours de la période 1963-2007 est entreprise employant les techniques de séries temporelles. Aussi, une analyse quantitative de la fécondité : naturelle, désirée, réelle, de l'écart et de la régulation est mise en œuvre par des modèles micro économétriques tels que ceux de choix discret, de comptage et de durée. Elle prouve que le comportement des ménages est guidé par l'arbitrage entre la quantité et la qualité d'enfants et met en évidence les déterminants économiques et socioculturels. Ces analyses permettent d'annoncer les politiques cadrant le comportement familial de fécondité dans le processus de développement
Human is the final benefit and the essential input of economic growth and development. Human capital as an economic growth driving force is strongly influenced by demographic variables. Family institution is a preliminary for human capital accumulation considering its fertility and education investment in its member's decision. Hence, human capital analysis leads necessary to endogenous population growth. Then, our interest is focused to human quantity and quality interaction. Our economic growth investigation is so conducted by analysing fertility as economic growth variable. Our essay is to put out fertility influences notably by its interaction with education in explaining economic performances. Referring to macro and micro economic family analysis, we verify education/fertility relationship and its contribution in the growth process in Tunisian case. A long and short dynamic quantitative analysis of fertility, education and growth equilibrium relationship over the period 1963-2007 is undertaken using times series technique. Although a quantitative analysis of actual, desired, their gap, natural and regulation fertility is applied using micro econometric models such as dichotomous model, count data model and duration model. It attests that Tunisian household behaviour is shaped by quantity-quality children trade-off and also highlights economic and sociocultural fertility determinants. These analyses give out policies matching family fertility behaviour in the development process

Defence date: 20 December 2006
Examining board: Prof. Giuseppe Bertola, supervisor, Università di Torino and EUI ; Prof. Alessandro Cigno, Università degli Studi di Firenze ; Prof. Jean-Pierre Laffargue, University of Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne ; Prof. Rick van der Ploeg, EUI
PDF of thesis uploaded from the Library digitised archive of EUI PhD theses completed between 2013 and 2017

Most developed nations are experiencing a transition towards higher median ages and slower population growth. Many developing nations are likely to experience similar transitions in the coming decades. The implications of such demographic changes for economic growth and standards of living, public finance, and international capital flows have been the subject of much discussion and research. This study seeks to make a contribution to the literature on the modelling of macroeconomic effects of demographic transition. Specifically, it seeks to adapt, extend and enhance two well-known modelling frameworks: the empirical MSG3 model (McKibbin and Wilcoxen, 1999) and the theoretical Blanchard (1985) model. The MSG3 model is an important tool in the multi-country, general equilibrium modelling literature and is well suited to the analysis of saving and investment, capital accumulation, economic growth, standards of living, international capital flows, and transition dynamics in a general equilibrium context. In this study, we report some of the efforts that have been made in using formal mathematical analysis, as well as empirical implementation and calibration, to adapt the MSG3 framework such that it becomes suitable for the analysis of population ageing. We also report some key findings from simulations based on the adapted MSG3 model. Some of these findings are consistent with those reported in previous studies. For example, other things being equal, a fall in the birth rate is likely to result in slower growth in labour supply and real output, as well as in per capita real GDP and consumption. Other findings help shed new light on old questions, especially those involving transitional dynamics. For example, the contrast between simulations with and without the presence of children in the model helps to clarify the effects of demographic change on investment and saving: if the transition to slower population growth is anticipated well in advance, the short-term saving response (a rise in saving) may outweigh the staggered investment response (a rise in investment) so that the country tends to export capital (experience current account surpluses) for a number of years. This study also makes contributions towards enhancing the Blanchard (1985) model, a seminal framework that has served as the conceptual basis of numerous analyses of policy changes and demographic shocks. The Blanchard model makes a simplifying assumption, namely that all individuals face a common mortality rate. To relax this assumption, we apply an overlapping generations approach to the Blanchard model. In the new resultant model, an individual's mortality rate rises with the person's age, and this age-mortality relationship is allowed to change over time. A version of this theoretical model is numerically implemented and simulated. The new discrete-time, cohort-based theoretical model is readily amenable to direct calibration with the use of historical data and authoritative projections. By incorporating variable (increasing) mortality rates, it is better equipped to capture key demographic features such as the population age structure, in comparison with a corresponding model based on the constant-mortality assumption. Results obtained from simulations of the empirical model indicate that such differences in demographic modelling translate into material differences in projections for important macroeconomic variables, including per capita output.

written by Cheung Man-Chun Doris.
Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2000.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 121-125).
Abstracts in English and Chinese.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS --- p.iii
LIST OF TABLES --- p.iv
LIST OF APPENDICES --- p.v
Chapter CHAPTER 1 --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1
Chapter CHAPTER 2 --- BACKGROUND OF AGEING IN SELECTED COUNTRIES
Chapter A. --- "Demographic Facts: World, More Developed and Less Developed Regions" --- p.6
Chapter B. --- "Demographic Facts: Germany, US, Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong" --- p.9
Chapter C. --- Demographic Changes of Hong Kong --- p.12
Chapter D. --- Fertility-dominated or Mortality-dominated ageing? --- p.14
Chapter CHAPTER 3 --- LITERATURE REVIEW
Chapter A. --- Ageing measurements --- p.16
Chapter B. --- Relationship between Savings and Investment --- p.17
Chapter C. --- Relationship between Ageing and Savings --- p.19
Chapter D. --- Relationship between Ageing and Growth --- p.23
Chapter E. --- Relationship between Savings and Growth --- p.24
Chapter F. --- Summary --- p.26
Chapter CHAPTER 4 --- EMPIRICAL SPECIFICATIONS AND DATA
Chapter A. --- Expectations of variables in Savings equation andin Growth equation --- p.30
Chapter B. --- Specifications for Panel Data Analysis
Chapter (i) --- The Data --- p.36
Chapter (ii) --- Methodology --- p.36
Chapter (iii) --- Specifications --- p.38
Chapter C. --- Specifications for Cross-sectional Analysis --- p.39
Chapter D. --- Pros and Cons of Using Panel and Cross-sectional Data --- p.40
Chapter CHAPTER 5 --- ESTIMATATION RESULTS
Chapter A. --- Cross-sectional Data Analysis
Chapter (i) --- How does Ageing Affect Savings? --- p.45
Chapter (ii) --- How does Ageing Affect Economic Growth? --- p.47
Chapter B. --- Panel Data Analysis
Chapter (i) --- How does Ageing Affect Savings? --- p.48
Chapter (ii) --- How does Ageing Affect Economic Growth? --- p.54
Chapter C. --- Comparison between the Results from the Analyses of the Cross-sectional Data and the Panel Data --- p.56
Chapter D. --- Reconciliation between the Conflicts --- p.57
Chapter (i) --- Difference in the Length of Estimation Periods --- p.59
Chapter (ii) --- Cross-sectional Effect vs. Time Series Effect --- p.60
Chapter (iii) --- Sampling Problems --- p.66
Chapter a) --- Results from Cutting Outliers (Full Samples) --- p.67
Chapter b) --- Results from Cutting Outliers (Non-poor Country Samples) --- p.69
Chapter c) --- Results from Entering both Ageing Variables Together (Full Samples) --- p.72
Chapter d) --- Results from Entering both Ageing Variables Together (Non-poor Countries Samples) --- p.73
Chapter E. --- Further Examination on the Impact of Ageing on the Economic Growth --- p.74
Chapter CHAPTER 6 --- CONCLUSION --- p.78
TABLES --- p.82
APPENDIX --- p.113
BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.121

The expansion of fruit, vegetable and horticultural (FVH) production in California and Andalucia has been contemporaneous with a decline in 'native' farm labor and restrictions on lower-skilled migration. Resulting increases in the populations of unauthorized farmworkers have contributed to mounting tension over the rights and numbers of migrants in Spain and the United States. Yet, the similarities in farm labor outcomes contrast with the distinct geographical, temporal, sociocultural and institutional conditions in which these labor markets have evolved. Using Californian and andaluz FVH as exemplars, the dissertation explores the problem and problematization of unauthorized migration in the United States and Spain from 1985 through 2005. Four primary themes -uncovered in interviews with migration researchers, advocates, union representatives, employers and migrants -guide assessment of the relationship between the reproduction of illegality and the regulation of migration and FVH production: the (1) recruitment and (2) retention of unauthorized farmworkers and the role of (3) interest groups and (4) the state in migration and farm labor policymaking. Legislation, mass media and US and Spanish census and survey data illustrate demographic, economic and political shifts over this period. The study illuminates the primary, but not always direct, role of policies and politics in the magnitude and composition of migration and settlement patterns in both countries. Laissez faire regulation and symbolic enforcement have shaped the ethnic, legal and gender composition of the farm labor market. Political and structural constraints, as well as economic pressures, have institutionalized illegality in FVH agriculture, subverting the cost of human rights to the price of food. Coupled with economic growth, this outsourcing in situ has spurred labor market intermediation and fostered poverty in rural communities; agreement on a farm labor fix has been limited, although not eclipsed, by public contestation over illegal migration.

In this analysis, I estimate the impact of the changing relative size of the adult male population, classified by age and education groups, on the earnings of employed males living in 502 Brazilian local labor markets during four time periods between 1970 and 2000. The effects of shifts in the age distribution of the working age population have been studied in relation to the effect of the baby-boom generation on the earnings of different cohorts in the United States. However, the question has received little attention in the context of the countries in Asia and Latin America, which are now experiencing substantial shifts in their age-education distributions. Taking advantage of the huge variation across Brazilian local labor markets, the models in this research suggest that age-education groups are not perfect substitutes, so that own-cohort-education size depresses earnings, as expected by the theory. Compositional shifts are influential, attesting that this approach represents a fruitful way of studying this central problem in economic development, going beyond the effects normally analyzed by formal labor market equations.
text

A thesis submitted to the faculty of Humanities, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; in fulfillment of the requirements for the award of PhD in Demography and Population Studies. September, 2016.
Background: While there has been a significant global reduction in maternal mortality rates from 546 000 in 1990 to 287 000 in 2010 (Zureick-Brown et al., 2013;Merdad, et al., 2013), maternal mortality in Zambia continues to be above at 483 per 100 000 live births, eluding the millennium development target of 162 (CSO, 2012). Data on maternal mortality are not disaggregated by provinces. Various studies on maternal mortality conducted in Zambia (Ahmed et al., 1999; Banda et al., 2007; Hazemba & Siziya, 2009; Kilpatrick, Crabtree & Kemp, 2002) have evaluated maternal deaths at national level using direct death inquiry and though it is useful for international comparisons, neither one of these approaches are appropriate for evaluating maternal mortality in small districts where safe motherhood initiatives are often carried out. These studies have rarely included neighbourhood influence on maternal mortality risks. Moreover, no known study has attempted to use the Zambia Demographic and Health Survey maternal health indicators to evaluate maternal mortality by regions in Zambia. Yet, analyses of differentials within small districts provide an improved awareness of the social situation in which the risks are high for regional priority interventions. In addition, other researchers (Achia & Mageto 2015; Stephenson & Elfstrom 2012) have all posted that inclusion of neighbourhood level variables is helpful to understand several maternal health outcomes. Objective: Guided by the conceptual framework developed by McCarthy & Maine (1992), this study contributes the new method of use of the mean Maternal Death Risk Factor Index model to estimate the levels and differentials in the risks of maternal mortality by regions and enhance the understanding of determinants of maternal mortality risks. This model is helpful in that it highlights regional and socioeconomic differentials in maternal mortality risks and ranks regions according to their potential maternal mortality burdens. Benchmarks are set by using this model and indicators are used to identify probable high-risk areas or regions. Methodology: The study utilised existing data sources from the 2007 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and 2011-2013 Health Management Information System Routine Data (HMIS). Bivariate analysis was utilised to investigate the distribution and differentials in exposure to maternal mortality risks. Multilevel logistic regression was performed to investigate the independent and moderating functions of neighbourhood aspects on exposure to maternal mortality risks and the moderating functions of neighbourhood causes on the relationship between individual circumstances and exposure to maternal mortality risks. The mean Maternal Death Risk Factor Index (MDRFI) model that uses the history of individual women health indicators was used to predict maternal mortality and highlight regional and socioeconomic differentials of maternal mortality risks. The analysis was based on 5 410 women aged 15 to 49 who had a live birth in the five years prior to the 2007 Zambian Demographic and Health Surveys. The HMIS 2011-2013 data was also utilised for a comparative analysis and complementing DHS data on maternal health matters in Zambia. Results: The predicted maternal mortality ratios (MMRs) values by region showed larger regional disparities. All the seven rural regions had MMR above the national average (591/100 000 live births); the highest being in Northern Zambia (738 per 100 000 live births) and Central Zambia (679 per 100 000 live births). The predicted ratios in the two urban regions of Lusaka and Copper-belt were significantly below the national average. The findings of both bivariate and multivariate analyses showed that skilled birth attendance at delivery significantly lowered the risks of exposure to adverse pregnancy outcome. The likelihood of using skilled personnel at birth was advanced for women who resided in neighbourhoods, with advanced proportion of women who utilized skilled delivery at birth compared to women who lived in neighbourhoods that had a high proportion of women giving birth at home. The outcome from the multilevel analysis showed that the consequence of individual and neighbourhood influences on the exposure to high risk pregnancy in Zambia operates at different levels. Women with no education were found to be more exposed to high risk pregnancy than women with post primary education. The rate of women in the neighbourhood who utilized skilled birth attendance had a strong positive impact on the reduction of exposure to high risk pregnancy. In the analysis of autonomy level – although results indicated that women with low autonomy had higher odds of exposure to high risk pregnancy compared to women with high autonomy – the results were not significant, and therefore autonomy level in terms of exposure to high risk pregnancy was not supported in this study. Conclusion: The MDRFI model is much easier to use at any level and quicker to forecast interventions as well as prevent probable risks compared to the use of the sisterhood method. The model proposed here could serve as the basis for a new and better system of mortality estimation for populations with incomplete data. The results reveal a number of challenges to confront with the purpose of reducing maternal mortality in Zambia. Women’s high risk reproductive behaviours and the use of imperative fertility healthcare utilities have yet to increase considerably to result in a decrease in maternal deaths in the nation. The continuous disparities in maternal death hardship by province, rural-urban dwelling and socioeconomic position of the society further heightened the issue, making attempts to enhance maternal health and thereby decrease maternal deaths more demanding. Advancements to lower maternal mortality should either lessen the probability that a woman will become pregnant or lower the possibility that a pregnant woman will experience adverse reactions during pregnancy or childbirth or better the outcomes for women with complex pregnancies. This research makes it evident that programs to combat maternal mortality risks in the country require several avenues that embrace diverse protective measures looking beyond the individual level as women’s health is essentially affected by their social environment. The amount of differential at neighbourhood and individual level found in our study indicates the need to contextualise efforts to increase resources towards mitigating exposure to high risk pregnancy. Hence, adopting neighbourhood-specific strategies along with identifying and addressing neighbourhood factors affecting the exposure to high risk pregnancy would give better results. The use of multilevel analysis in this research has shown that individual and neighbourhood aspects are crucial components associated with the exposure to high risk pregnancy. The multilevel framework demonstrated crucial neighbourhood differentials in the exposure to high risk pregnancy. Improving quality and access to health services is essential if the most deprived are to benefit. The Ministry of Health should align its plans of action to Zambia’s development strategy articulated in its own Vision 2030. Neighbourhood health workers need to be involved in sensitising pregnant women about the risks of maternal mortality, for instance short birth interval, risky maternal age and danger signs during pregnancy. To close the gap in exposure to high risk pregnancy between neighbourhoods, interventions should aim at poverty reduction, increasing neighbourhood maternal education and facility delivery in deprived neighbourhoods. The model used in this study could serve as the basis for a new and better system of mortality estimation for populations with incomplete data and will be much easier to use at any level, as well as vital for quick forecasting of priority interventions.
GR2017

by Ho Sau Lan.
Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1991.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 82-85).
ABSTRACT
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
CONTENTS
LIST OF TABLES
CHAPTERS
Chapter 1. --- DEMOGRAPHIC PATTERN AND POPULATION POLICIES
Chapter 1.1 --- Introduction
Chapter 1.2 --- Current literature on China's demography
Chapter 1.3 --- Recent demographic trend in China
Chapter 1.4 --- Policies for controlling birth
Chapter 2. --- EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
Chapter 2.1 --- Explanations of the demographic transition
Chapter 2.2 --- Granger-causality
Chapter 2.3 --- Test specification
Chapter 2.4 --- Data specification
Chapter 2.5 --- Test procedure
Chapter 2.6 --- Empirical results
Chapter 2.7 --- Summary
Chapter 2.8 --- Problem of the tests
Chapter 3. --- FERTILITY CHANGE IN THE REFORM PERIOD1979-1987
Chapter 3.1 --- The economic reform
Chapter 3.2 --- Effects of the economic reform and other economic factors on fertility
Chapter 3.3 --- Data specification
Chapter 3.4 --- Statistical specification
Chapter 3.5 --- Empirical Results
Chapter 3.6 --- Summary
Chapter 4. --- CONCLUDTNG REMARKS
Chapter 5. --- APPENDIX A： GLOSSARY OF SOME DEMOGRAPHIC TERMS
Chapter 6. --- APPENDIX B： SOURCES OF DATA
Chapter 7. --- BIBLIOGRAPHY

This thesis attempts to examine the influence of social and economic activities on fertility regulation using data collected from two villages in rural Tamil Nadu, South India. Data collection was carried out through a year long semi-anthropological investigation relying on in-depth interviews, direct observation of activities, participant observation and a retrospective survey of activities apart from a household census to collect basic data on the structure of the population. The study found that society in the study area remains traditional in the sense that the rigid caste system still prevails. The higher castes control the land and thei^by control the labour market as well. However, there has been a redistribution of land in recent times, and with the advent of improved agricultural techniques, there has been a significant change in the economic structure of the area. There have also been several social changes of significance in the area. Foremost of these has been that the importance of primary education is now recognized and people's attitudes towards health has changed. People are now concerned about health and have developed faith in the modern system of medicine. As a result of improved health services, mortality in the area, especially infant and child mortality, has been declining. The increasing popularity of the family planning programme has led to an increase in the rate of acceptance of family planning methods. A relatively high level of agricultural productivity and other economic changes such as a diversification of activity patterns due to the advent of non-agricultural jobs have resulted in a rapid expansion of the cash economy. Availability of a wider range of goods and services has led to significant changes in consumption patterns and the people of the area no longer consider themselves as producers in a subsistence economy but as consumers in a cash economy. Changes in the consumption patterns and the expansion of the cash economy have led people to believe and accept the view that having children is a costly proposition and that having a large number of children is no longer of any economic value. Apart from this, with the aged depending more on themselves and less on their children, the concept of old age security is gradually losing importance and is^longer a prime motive for having a large family. Parental perceptions about the value of children have been further changed by the structure of the labour market and the way in which labour is hired and paid for. Intensification of agriculture and the introduction of multiple cropping has led to a high rate of labour force participation by the women and has also increased employment opportunities for the aged. Moreover, due to increasing school enrolment, children are available to a lesser extent for farm work. The nature of agricultural operations is such that, except during the dry summer months, there is a great deal of activity and both males and females aged contribute significantly to this activity. The activity patterns of the adults in the area are such that people now find that, in order to ensure that their income earning capacities are not affected and that they can continue to maintain a certain minimum standard of living, it is necessary to control fertility. Moreover, having a large number of children places a strain on the economic resources of the households and uncontrolled fertility is no longer considered socially acceptable. Because of the type of work, they now do and they way in which they have to live, parents find fertility control inevitable. Thus, the social and economic activities of people in the area have brought about an irreversible decline in fertility.

This study argues that the slow progress of Turkey in the accession to the European Union is not simlpy due to a failure to comply with the "official" membership criteria. It is argued that European attitude towards these official requirements represents a double standard, which can be searched in the context of unspoken cultural and religious fears, that do not exist in the official criteria. It is argued that there are many positive reasons to Turkey's accession to the EU. There is the aspect of energy- security, demography, acting as a bridge between the West and the East, and keeping the European Union away from being Eurocentric. However, seen the recent developments in Turkey's accession negotiations with the EU, the current political climate in Europe suggests that cultural homogeneity of the European Union remains a strong desire. Turkey, being the "Other", suffers the consequences of this. And while Turkey can make changes to its economy and political system to fulfil the EU's accession criteria, there are two 'givens' that cannot be changed-namely, religion/culture and geography/physical location. Thus, understanding these fixed characteristics of Turkey, and their perception by the European Union is crucially important in understanding the European Union - Turkey process overall.

The concept of population ageing is a development issue that has received much attention due to the demographic transition that is occurring globally, marked by declining levels of fertility and mortality. Therefore, the implications of population ageing for older persons within the context of Social Development was examined from the perspective of government and non government officials. The study was confined to older persons and the policies and programmes implemented by the Department of Social Development. The study employed an exploratory research design within a qualitative paradigm. Semi-structured interviews and a questionnaire were distributed to officials in the nine provinces. Thirty six questionnaires were received and qualitative methods of data analysis were used to analyse and interpret the data. The main finding of the study is that there is congruence in what government officials and the non government officials view as implications for older persons. Central to this is that the issue of ageing does not receive attention on the agenda of government. The top five priorities for older persons are healthy ageing, economic security, community/home based care services for older persons, having care and support systems for older persons and an improved quality of life/poverty alleviation. Based on the demographic determinants of population ageing, the findings are that there will be an increased demand for services for older persons which might place a strain on the social assistance and health care programmes. The issue of ageing was viewed positively as an opportunity by government officials and pessimistically as a challenge by NGO’s. The most common problems in old age is a reliance on the younger generation and or the state for their care and support, abuse, high levels of illiteracy and the burden of care for their children and grandchildren. The future older person is likely to be in better health and better educated than the older person of today if the necessary public investments are made now in these areas. The study makes recommendations for the adoption of a South African plan of action on ageing, inter-sectoral budgeting, development of specialised programmes, review of current policies and legislation for older persons, strengthening the partnership with the NGO sector and facilitating ageing mainstreaming within government programmes.
Sociology
M.A. (Social Development)

Backyard gardens has been identified as one of the possible solutions to some of the issues surrounding poverty alleviation in the Bojanala Platinum District Municipality. The main objective of the study was to determine the economic contribution of backyard gardens in alleviation of poverty in rural communities of Bojanala Platinum District Municipality in the North West Province, South Africa. The study used purposive sampling for data collection from the study respondents which enabled the researcher to select a sample with experience and knowledge about the study variables. The questionnaire used as data collection instrument was pretested, validated and subjected to reliability test to improve the efficiency of the use of the questionnaire. The collected data was sorted, coded and analysed using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) Version 23.0 software. Frequency count and percentage were used to summarize the data into tables and graphs. The linear multiple regression model specification was employed to examine the demographic and socio-economic factors (predictors) that influence the generation of income from backyard gardens. Multinomial logistics regression model was also used to determine factors influencing the respondents’ objectives for the Backyard gardens, while the logit regression model was used to analyse determinants of the proportion of backyard land used for backyard farming by respondents/growers. The findings of the study are that: more females (68.2%) were involved in the study than males (31.8%); youth involved in the study were 27.7%; the majority (60.4%) of respondents are in the age group of 41-70 years of age; majority (69.5%) of respondents had matric education, 20.9% had tertiary education, and 3.6% had below matric education whilst 5.9% had no formal education; most of respondents are unemployed (86.6%); 32.2% of respondents are dependent on pension as their source of income, 12.3% depend on grant, 15% depend on monthly salaries, 0.5% depend on investments, 2.3% depend on remittance, and 18.6% depend on piece jobs, whilst 19.1% reported other source of income; majority (99%) of respondents reported that backyard garden contribute a significant proportion to both household income and food security, whilst 1.0% did not agree; 40% of the respondents could not manage to farm the whole garden area, while 60% were able to farm the entire garden area; the majority (70.9%) of respondents provide own solutions to their backyard garden challenges; majority (53.7%) of respondents reported that extension officers never visited their gardens, whilst 46.3% had extension visits on weekly, monthly and quarterly bases; 23.2% of the respondents created permanent employment while 34.1% of them created seasonal employment. The results of the OLS regression analysis showed that gender of respondents, with formal employment, ownership of a farm besides the Backyard garden (BYG) by respondent, farmers’ years of experience in farming and annual income from the sale of livestock by respondent had positive and statistically significant influence on the annual income from Backyard garden with all other factors held constant. The results of the multinomial regression analyses show that a unit change in number of years involved in backyard gardening (YRSBG) does not significantly change the odds of being classified in the 4th category of the outcome variable (Produce to help the needy, the poor, to feed the orphans, and for home based-cares around their communities = 4) relative to the first or second or third categories of the outcome variable, while controlling for the influence of the others. On the other hand a unit change in being employed (EMPLO) and involved in non-farm activities (NFA) do significantly change the odds of being classified in the 4th category of the outcome variable relative to the second or third categories of the outcome variable, while controlling the influence of the others. The Logit coefficient estimate associated with Age, Income per month from BYG, Engage in non-farm activities, Years of experience in gardening, Proportion of produce consumed, having a business plan, Own a farm besides BYG and to lease your backyard have statistically significant impact on respondents area of cultivation for BYG with other factors held constant. Policies to improve BYG in the district should be informed by the aforementioned variables from the results of the inferential analyses.
Agriculture
M. Sc. (Agriculture)

Spatial, temporal and population dynamics have influenced learner enrolments in Vhembe District primary schools in Limpopo, South Africa. Vhembe District primary schools have in recent years experienced closure of some of its primary schools due to declining learner enrolments. The dynamics of demographic factors such as migration, fertility and mortality cause fluctuations in the school-age population over time and across space. Poor economic development, the location of the district and the spatial distribution of primary schools make the situation in this rural-based district even more complex. The communities of Vhembe District are discontent about the state of affairs in the area regarding the provision of education and the closure of schools. The closure of schools destabilises the social cohesion amongst members of the community and disempowers them, while inadequate provision of primary school education makes them feel neglected and robbed of their constitutional right. This study investigated the causes of declining learner enrolment and the effect of the closure of schools on the communities. To achieve the objectives data came from questionnaires at household level and from interviews conducted with educators, circuit managers, officials in the Limpopo Education Department and traditional leaders. The study found that declining fertility and out-migration from the area are responsible for a declining school-age population. This is the reality and the communities of Vhembe District will have to live with it because overall learner enrolments continue to decline. Lack of a planning model in the former Venda territory led to an over-supply of primary schools thus schools in close proximity had to compete for learners. Poorly equipped schools and general development of the area exacerbate the problem and some members of the community perceive education in this district to be inferior. Younger economically active people are increasingly moving to places with better opportunities. This study offers some recommendations to alleviate the problems identified in Vhembe District. Application of a geographical approach to an adaptive strategy considers the natural environment in political, social and economic context. It suggests that education authorities could apply such a strategy to make the schools in rural areas more sustainable
Geography
D. Phil. (Geography)