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Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Currency crises – Models »

Auteur : Grafiati
Publié le 10 mars 2023

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Articles de revues sur le sujet "Currency crises – Models"

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Alaminos, David, Fernando Aguilar-Vijande et José Ramón Sánchez-Serrano. « Neural Networks for Estimating Speculative Attacks Models ». Entropy 23, no 1 (13 janvier 2021) : 106. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e23010106.

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Currency crises have been analyzed and modeled over the last few decades. These currency crises develop mainly due to a balance of payments crisis, and in many cases, these crises lead to speculative attacks against the price of the currency. Despite the popularity of these models, they are currently shown as models with low estimation precision. In the present study, estimates are made with first- and second-generation speculative attack models using neural network methods. The results conclude that the Quantum-Inspired Neural Network and Deep Neural Decision Trees methodologies are shown to be the most accurate, with results around 90% accuracy. These results exceed the estimates made with Ordinary Least Squares, the usual estimation method for speculative attack models. In addition, the time required for the estimation is less for neural network methods than for Ordinary Least Squares. These results can be of great importance for public and financial institutions when anticipating speculative pressures on currencies that are in price crisis in the markets.
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Rangvid, Jesper. « Second Generation Models of Currency Crises ». Journal of Economic Surveys 15, no 5 (décembre 2001) : 613–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-6419.00151.

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Chong, Terence T. L., et Isabel K. Yan. « Forecasting currency crises with threshold models ». International Economics 156 (décembre 2018) : 156–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2018.02.001.

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CAKMAK, Umut. « An Evaluation of the Currency Crises Models ». Ekonomik Yaklasim 18, no 62 (2007) : 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.5455/ey.10624.

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Alaminos, David, José Ignacio Peláez, M. Belén Salas et Manuel A. Fernández-Gámez. « Sovereign Debt and Currency Crises Prediction Models Using Machine Learning Techniques ». Symmetry 13, no 4 (12 avril 2021) : 652. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/sym13040652.

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Sovereign debt and currencies play an increasingly influential role in the development of any country, given the need to obtain financing and establish international relations. A recurring theme in the literature on financial crises has been the prediction of sovereign debt and currency crises due to their extreme importance in international economic activity. Nevertheless, the limitations of the existing models are related to accuracy and the literature calls for more investigation on the subject and lacks geographic diversity in the samples used. This article presents new models for the prediction of sovereign debt and currency crises, using various computational techniques, which increase their precision. Also, these models present experiences with a wide global sample of the main geographical world zones, such as Africa and the Middle East, Latin America, Asia, Europe, and globally. Our models demonstrate the superiority of computational techniques concerning statistics in terms of the level of precision, which are the best methods for the sovereign debt crisis: fuzzy decision trees, AdaBoost, extreme gradient boosting, and deep learning neural decision trees, and for forecasting the currency crisis: deep learning neural decision trees, extreme gradient boosting, random forests, and deep belief network. Our research has a large and potentially significant impact on the macroeconomic policy adequacy of the countries against the risks arising from financial crises and provides instruments that make it possible to improve the balance in the finance of the countries.
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Obstfeld, Maurice. « Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features ». European Economic Review 40, no 3-5 (avril 1996) : 1037–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0014-2921(95)00111-5.

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Abdushukurov, Nurilla. « The impact of currency crises on economic growth and foreign direct investment : The analysis of emerging and developing economies ». Russian Journal of Economics 5, no 3 (21 octobre 2019) : 220–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.5.38073.

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In this paper, the discussion centers on the possible effects of currency crises on different economic indicators, with special attention to economic growth and foreign direct investment. There is insufficient research on this topic to draw any firm conclusions about the associations between currency crises and aforementioned variables. In fact, it appears that the impact of currency crises on economic growth and foreign direct investment is negative respectively. However, this study indicates that foreign direct investment can be positively correlated with currency crises as contrary to the common belief. The current study analyzes these relationships through dynamic panel models. The annual panel data for 71 emerging and developing countries are extracted from reliable databases for the time period of 2005–2014. Generalized method of moments estimators are used to obtain efficient and consistent results so as to reach necessary conclusions. The majority of estimated coefficients are significant and unbiased statistically, and also consistent with the economic theories proposed. The main results indicate that the presence of a currency crisis in a particular economy has a negative impact on economic growth, while its effect on foreign investment inflows is most likely positive. Robustness tests demonstrate that used models in the study are both economically and econometrically robust and valid.
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Nagar, Venky, et Gwen Yu. « Accounting for Crises ». American Economic Journal : Macroeconomics 6, no 3 (1 juillet 2014) : 184–213. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.6.3.184.

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We provide among the first empirical evidence, consistent with recent macro global game crisis models, that shows that the precision of public signals can coordinate crises. In these models, self-fulfilling crises independent of fundamentals can occur only when publicly disclosed signals of fundamentals have high precision; poor fundamentals are the sole driver of crises only in low precision settings. We exploit a key publicly disclosed signal of fundamentals, namely accounting data, for 68 currency and systemic banking crises in 17 countries. We find that precrisis accounting signals of fundamentals are significantly lower only in low-precision countries. (JEL D82, E44, G01, G14, G21 L25, M40)
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Chionis, D., et P. Liargovas. « Currency crises in transition economies : An empirical analysis ». Acta Oeconomica 53, no 2 (juin 2003) : 175–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1556/aoecon.53.2003.2.3.

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This paper examines the causes of turbulence in foreign exchange markets by looking closely at the experience of four transition economies (Bulgaria, Romania, Russia, Ukraine). It considers the influence of macroeconomic variables in currency crises occurrence through the use of logit models. In an environment of deteriorating fundamentals the examined issue is whether or not some fundamentals are able to maximise the likelihood of currency crisis incidence.
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Sbracia, Massimo, et Andrea Zaghini. « Expectations and information in second generation currency crises models ». Economic Modelling 18, no 2 (avril 2001) : 203–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0264-9993(00)00034-1.

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Thèses sur le sujet "Currency crises – Models"

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Solomon, Raphael Haim Reuven. « Every bank run need not cause a currency crisis. models of twin crisis with imperfect information ». The Ohio State University, 2003. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1054309457.

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SROUR, SOLANGE. « CURRENCY CRISES AND CURRENCY BOARDS : A MODEL RELAXING THE CLASSICAL PPP ASSUMPTION ». PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2001. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=14076@1.

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COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIOR
O principal objetivo da dissertação é analisar crises de realinhamento da taxa de câmbio real. O modelo desenvolvido relaxa a hipótese da PPP, que é usual nos modelos de crises cambiais, e assume que o desequilíbrio da taxa de câmbio é derivado de choques exógenos no balanço de pagamentos. Este tipo de abordagem permite explicar crises que não são derivadas da adoção de políticas inconsistentes com o regime cambial fixo e sim resultado do processo de ajuste da economia. Um aspecto fundamental do modelo é a importância do grau de comprometimento do governo em relação ao câmbio fixo. A adoção de regimes de câmbio fixo com altos custos de saída, como o currency board, pode ser racionalizada através de um modelo simples como o apresentado.
The main objective of this dissertation is to analyze real exchange rate realignment crises. The model developed abandons the PPP hypothesis, which is common in the exchange rate crises models, and assumes that disequilibrium of the exchange rate is derived from exogenous shocks at the balance of payments. This type of approach allows us to explain crises that are not derived from the adoption of policies that are inconsistent with the fixed parity, but result from the process of adjusting the economy. A fundamental aspect of the model is the importance of the degree of commitment of the government in respect to the parity. The adoption of regimes of fixed exchange rate with high costs of exit, as currency boards, can be rationalized through a simple model as the one presented below.
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Špecián, Petr. « Interpretace fenoménu moderní měnové krize v rámci širších teoretických modelů ekonomiky ». Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2008. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-10443.

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The thesis is dealing with currency crisis phenomenon and its explanation within the wider framework of theoretical economics. It contains an analysis of present "mainstream" understanding of the currency crisis, an outline to the approaches to its modelling and also a brief historical overwiev. This thesis uses an analysis and also an application of relevant theories of L.Mises and J.M.Keynes to achieve its main objective. Finally it comes to the integration of currency crisis into the context of general economic course of events.
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Miyake, Adriana Keiko. « A economia brasileira ao longo da década de 1990 e a crise cambial de 1999 : um estudo econométrico baseado nos modelos de primeira e segunda geração ». Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo, 2006. https://tede2.pucsp.br/handle/handle/9289.

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Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:46Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Adriana Keiko Miyake.pdf: 3746552 bytes, checksum: 6dd1aaa0e7aa880c56b3871870d50940 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006-06-20
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
As transformações ocorridas nas últimas décadas na economia internacional provocaram graves crises monetárias e fmanceiras em diversos países, resultando em crises cambiais e no abandono do regime de câmbio fixo. O aumento do poder do capital financeiro sobre o produtivo, decorrente da maior abertura e da desregulamentação dos mercados financeiros, foi um dos fatores que aumentou a vulnerabilidade de economias menos preparadas para essas mudanças, como foi o caso de muitos países em desenvolvimento. Ainda, a abertura comercial ocorrida nesses países expôs seu setor produtivo à crescente concorrência externa de grandes empresas multinacionais. Aliada a esses fatores, a forma com que a política foi conduzida por seus respectivos governos contribuiu para a deflagração da cnse. A crise cambial brasileira, ocorrida no início de 1999, acarretou problemas para toda a economia brasileira. Diante disso, este trabalho procurou estudar os fatores que poderiam ser apontados como responsáveis por esse acontecimento, para que, no futuro, situações semelhantes sejam previstas com maior antecedência e para que medidas sejam tomadas para evitar este tipo de desfecho. Foi feito um acompanhamento da economia, ao longo da década de 1990, para se identificar as variáveis que levaram à crise cambial. A partir disso, foi utilizado um instrumental matemático (regressão do tipo Probit) para se chegar a um modelo econométrico que relacionasse essas variáveis à probabilidade de ocorrência de crise. Diferentemente do que ocorreu nos países do leste asiático, que suscitou o desenvolvimento dos modelos chamados de terceira geração, o resultado obtido no caso brasileiro se mostrou em conformidade com aspectos tanto dos modelos de primeira quanto de segunda geração
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Cabrol, Sébastien. « Les crises économiques et financières et les facteurs favorisant leur occurrence ». Thesis, Paris 9, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013PA090019.

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Cette étude vise à mettre en lumière les différences et similarités existant entre les principales crises économiques et financières ayant frappé un échantillon de 21 pays avancés depuis 1981. Nous analyserons plus particulièrement la crise des subprimes que nous rapprocherons avec des épisodes antérieurs. Nous étudierons à la fois les années du déclenchement des turbulences (analyse typologique) ainsi que celles les précédant (prévision). Cette analyse sera fondée sur l’utilisation de la méthode CART (Classification And Regression Trees). Cette technique non linéaire et non paramétrique permet de prendre en compte les effets de seuil et les interactions entre variables explicatives de façon à révéler plusieurs contextes distincts explicatifs d’un même événement. Dans le cadre d‘un modèle de prévision, l’analyse des années précédant les crises nous indique que les variables à surveiller sont : la variation et la volatilité du cours de l’once d’or, le déficit du compte courant en pourcentage du PIB et la variation de l’openness ratio et enfin la variation et la volatilité du taux de change. Dans le cadre de l’analyse typologique, l’étude des différentes variétés de crise (année du déclenchement de la crise) nous permettra d’identifier deux principaux types de turbulence d’un point de vue empirique. En premier lieu, nous retiendrons les crises globales caractérisées par un fort ralentissement ou une baisse de l’activité aux Etats-Unis et une faible croissance du PIB dans les pays touchés. D’autre part, nous mettrons en évidence des crises idiosyncratiques propres à un pays donné et caractérisées par une inflation et une volatilité du taux de change élevées
The aim of this thesis is to analyze, from an empirical point of view, both the different varieties of economic and financial crises (typological analysis) and the context’s characteristics, which could be associated with a likely occurrence of such events. Consequently, we analyze both: years seeing a crisis occurring and years preceding such events (leading contexts analysis, forecasting). This study contributes to the empirical literature by focusing exclusively on the crises in advanced economies over the last 30 years, by considering several theoretical types of crises and by taking into account a large number of both economic and financial explanatory variables. As part of this research, we also analyze stylized facts related to the 2007/2008 subprimes turmoil and our ability to foresee crises from an epistemological perspective. Our empirical results are based on the use of binary classification trees through CART (Classification And Regression Trees) methodology. This nonparametric and nonlinear statistical technique allows us to manage large data set and is suitable to identify threshold effects and complex interactions among variables. Furthermore, this methodology leads to characterize crises (or context preceding a crisis) by several distinct sets of independent variables. Thus, we identify as leading indicators of economic and financial crises: variation and volatility of both gold prices and nominal exchange rates, as well as current account balance (as % of GDP) and change in openness ratio. Regarding the typological analysis, we figure out two main different empirical varieties of crises. First, we highlight « global type » crises characterized by a slowdown in US economic activity (stressing the role and influence of the USA in global economic conditions) and low GDP growth in the countries affected by the turmoil. Second, we find that country-specific high level of both inflation and exchange rates volatility could be considered as evidence of « idiosyncratic type » crises
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Mounoussamy, Julie. « Fondements théoriques et empiriques des crises monétaires ». Thesis, La Réunion, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017LARE0026.

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Les crises monétaires sont les premières crises financières de l'histoire économique. Elles se traduisent par l'élimination ou la substitution des monnaies nationales. L'objectif de cette thèse est de poser les fondements théoriques et empiriques des crises monétaires, mais également de proposer un cadre de prévention de ce type de crise qui sévit en zone euro depuis 2008. Les débats économiques et politiques actuels autour des questions de désintégration monétaire témoignent de la persistance et de l'ampleur de la crise, où la légitimité et la souveraineté de la monnaie unique est menacée à moyen long terme. Les divers plans de sauvetage et les politiques d'austérité dans les pays-membres en difficulté ne sont que les conséquences et les coûts directs d'une telle crise. Ces derniers doivent interpeller les autorités de supervision à une plus grande vigilance, ainsi qu'à une politique de prévention plus avisée. L'objectif de cette thèse est double : dans une première partie, nous analysons le concept, les fondements historiques et théoriques des crises monétaires, puis dressons une typologie de celles-ci. Dans une seconde partie, nous apportons une contribution empirique relative aux déterminants des crises monétaires en zone euro et proposons un outil de prévention des crises monétaires, grâce à la mise en place d'un système d'alerte avancée (Early Warning System), par l'approche économétrique de type logit multinomial. Pour ce faire, la détection et la mesure des mésalignements des taux de change réels à l'intérieur de la zone euro est cruciale, puisqu'il constitue l'indicateur premier des crises monétaires. L'estimation des taux de change d'équilibre permettent ainsi d'apprécier la sur ou sous-évaluation des monnaies, indispensable à la mise en place d'un système d'alerte avancée, à des fins de prévention des crises monétaires
Monetary crises are the first financial crises in economic history, which result in the elimination or substitution of national currencies. The aim of this thesis is to study the theoretical and empirical foundations of monetary crises. Furthermore, a framework for the prevention of such crises, raging in the Euro zone since 2008, is provided. The current economic and political debates about this issue reflect the persistence and the extent of this crisis, in which the Euro's legitimacy and sovereignty is threatened in the medium term. The various rescue plans and austerity policies in troubled member states are direct consequences and costs of this crisis. Consequently, supervisory authorities need to be more vigilant in strengthening their prevention policy. The purpose of this thesis is twofold: in the first part, we analyze the concept, the historical and theoretical foundations of monetary crises, and then develop a typology of them. In the second part, we provide an empirical contribution on the determinants of monetary crises in the euro area and propose a tool for preventing currency crises by setting up an Early Warning System, through the econometric approach of the multinomial logit model. As the primary indicator of monetary crises, the detection and measurement of real exchange rate misalignments within the euro area is decisive. The equilibrium exchange rates estimation allows the assessment of currency over- or undervaluation, which is essential for the implementation of an early warning system
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DE, SANTIS ROBERTA, et SANTIS Roberta DE. « Trade as international transmission mechanism of shocks : The case of Central Eastern European Countries ». Doctoral thesis, La Sapienza, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/11573/916890.

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Wood, Emily Nicole. « Analysis of SIS Patch Model and Development of a Modified SEIR Patch Model Applied to the Current Opiate Crisis ». The Ohio State University, 2020. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu15952391082538.

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Ndiritu, Gachiri Charles. « An Application of Multiple Regression in Exchange Rate Arrangements ». Thesis, University of the Western Cape, 2008. http://etd.uwc.ac.za/index.php?module=etd&action=viewtitle&id=gen8Srv25Nme4_1863_1263418792.

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This project "
An application of multiple regression in exchange rate arrangement"
focused on the processes followed by different countries when choosing an exchange rate regime for currency stabilization. It analyses the consequences faced by emerging markets as a result of changes in volatility of developed countries&rsquo
currencies (American Dollar, Japanese Yen, EURO, British Pound and the Canadian Dollar).

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Roelf, Nicholas Louis. « Decentralising the South African Police Service : Does South Africa's current public safety crisis and the de facto decentralising of policing necessitate a critical evaluation of its present policing model ? » Master's thesis, Faculty of Law, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/33014.

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Violent crime in South Africa has reached epidemic levels, and something needs to be done about it as a matter of urgency. While the huge socio-economic inequalities in South Africa remain the main cause of crime in South Africa, the focus of this dissertation is on the inefficient, ineffective and unaccountable South African Police Service (SAPS), and how its failings have contributed to the public safety crisis South Africa is faced with presently. In this dissertation I suggest that, given South Africa's current public safety crisis, institutional reform of SAPS is needed in order to adequately address this social ill and argue that it is worth revisiting the decentralised policing model proposed under the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa Act 200 of 1993 (Interim Constitution), as a partial solution. The public safety crisis effects every person in South Africa, whether directly or indirectly, however, it is the most vulnerable communities, on the socio-economic margins of the South African society, who suffer the most. The Cape Flats in Cape Town is used as a representative case study to show the failings of South Africa's current centralised policing model, highlighting how SAPS have proven to be ineffective in dealing with violent crime there. As a result of the failings of SAPS people are organising locally to ensure their own safety, including the creation of vigilante organisations. In Cape Town a de facto decentralised police service has been created, which in itself presents a serious problem however also reflects the demand for more localised and nuanced policing in South Africa.
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Livres sur le sujet "Currency crises – Models"

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Obstfeld, Maurice. The logic of currency crises. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, 1994.

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Obstfeld, Maurice. Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features. London : Centre for Economic Policy Research, 1996.

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Obstfeld, Maurice. Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, 1995.

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Obstfeld, Maurice. Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features. London : Centre for Economic Policy Research, 1996.

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Christian, Bordes-Marcilloux, Girardin E et Melitz Jacques, dir. European currency crises and after. Manchester : Manchester University Press, 1995.

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Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria. Current account reversals and currency crises : Empirical regularities. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, 1998.

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Berg, Andrew. Are currency crises predictable ? : A test. [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, Research Department, 1998.

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Sbracia, Massimo. Expectations and information in second generation currency crises models. Roma : Banca d'Italia, 2000.

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Sbracia, M. Expectations and information in second generation currency crises models. [Roma] : Banca d'Italia, 2000.

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Weber, Axel A. Sources of currency crises : An empirical analysis. Wien : Oesterreichische Nationalbank, 1998.

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Chapitres de livres sur le sujet "Currency crises – Models"

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Burnside, Craig, Martin Eichenbaum et Sergio Rebelo. « currency crises models ». Dans Banking Crises, 79–83. London : Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137553799_11.

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Burnside, Craig, Martin Eichenbaum et Sergio Rebelo. « Currency Crises Models ». Dans The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 1–5. London : Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_2177-1.

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Burnside, Craig, Martin Eichenbaum et Sergio Rebelo. « Currency Crises Models ». Dans The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2551–54. London : Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95189-5_2177.

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Rother, Björn. « Political-Economy Crisis Models ». Dans The Determinants of Currency Crises, 31–83. London : Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230233645_3.

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Fratzscher, Marcel. « Identifying the Role of Contagion in Currency Crises with Markov-Switching Models ». Dans Sovereign Risk and Financial Crises, 155–76. Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-09950-6_9.

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Zhuang, Juzhong. « Nonparametric EWS Models of Currency and Banking Crises for East Asia ». Dans Early Warning Systems for Financial Crises, 39–122. London : Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230501065_4.

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Metz, Christina E. « Currency Crisis Models With Small And Large Traders ». Dans Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 137–61. Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-55471-1_12.

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Metz, Christina E. « Solving Currency Crisis Models in Global Games - the Morris/Shin-Model (1998) ». Dans Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 53–61. Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-55471-1_5.

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Koo, Younghoon, Chang Seok Oh, Hyunsoo Joo, Seungjae Lee et Jose Antonio Tan. « A Parametric EWS Model of Currency Crises for East Asia ». Dans Early Warning Systems for Financial Crises, 123–51. London : Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230501065_5.

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Rocco, Claudio M., et José Alí Moreno. « A Support Vector Machine Model for Currency Crises Discrimination ». Dans Computational Intelligence in Economics and Finance, 171–81. Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-06373-6_6.

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Actes de conférences sur le sujet "Currency crises – Models"

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Galić, Matej, Petra Popek Biškupec et Marko Galić. « ASSESSMENT OF MANAGEMENT CONTROLLING IN PANDEMIC TIMES ». Dans EU 2021 – The future of the EU in and after the pandemic. Faculty of Law, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.25234/eclic/18351.

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The emergence of coronavirus led to evident consequences for the global economy. During the previous financial crisis, organisations have already determined the elements of crisis management so they could met the new corona crisis readily. Global changes, like the current pandemic situation, provide a different view toward the future expectations. The pandemic has caused new way of functioning under special circumstances such as various restrictions in many European countries, restrictions on people’s mobility and other novelties that have encountered for the first time. Characteristics of this crisis include novelty and pressure in a business environment, which can reveal various vulnerabilities in organisations. Managers were affected by major business changes, and there appeared a need for rapid reorganisation of the current way of functioning. Management had to introduce new control systems that refer to their strategies for exchanging information and decision-making. In general, each crisis is a new opportunity for seeking modern and appropriate models and tools for business improvement. When business situations are challenging, managers are more oriented toward controlling. Therefore, organisations that focus on traditional management models are not very successful in normal circumstances, and even less so in a crisis. This study aims to examine the extent of the structure and function of management control systems in pandemic conditions in Croatian organisations. An overview of current systems in organizations was given, as well as management challenges of the pandemic situations. This study includes the analysis of management control system during the pandemic times. The research was conducted using survey method what referred to analyses of strategic plans, performance evaluation systems, and management controls for performance evaluation in Croatian organisations. The factor analysis of the main components was conducted in order to examine the contribution of predictor variables in explaining the broad-scope management control system. In order to examine the contribution of gender, age, work experience, education, company size, aggregation, timeliness, and integration for explaining of broad-scope the management control system hierarchical regression analysis was conducted. The results confirm that integration is significant predictor in the crisis controlling model, but at the same time, when the integration and timeliness should have positive connection, greater timeliness does not increase to the greater availability. This withdraws the conclusion that uncertainty of environment extents the speed of business processes. Despite of the equal integration during pandemic crises the remote working conditions caused the decrease of the promptness of reporting collected information, which requires new models of controlling in unpredictable situations.
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Leski, Florian, Michael Fruhwirth et Viktoria Pammer-Schindler. « Who Else do You Need for a Data-Driven Business Model ? Exploring Roles and Exchanged Values ». Dans Digital Support from Crisis to Progressive Change. University of Maribor Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18690/978-961-286-485-9.27.

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The increasing volume of available data and the advances in analytics and artificial intelligence hold the potential for new business models also in offline-established organizations. To successfully implement a data-driven business model, it is crucial to understand the environment and the roles that need to be fulfilled by actors in the business model. This partner perspective is overlooked by current research on datadriven business models. In this paper, we present a structured literature review in which we identified 33 relevant publications. Based on this literature, we developed a framework consisting of eight roles and two attributes that can be assigned to actors as well as three classes of exchanged values between actors. Finally, we evaluated our framework through three cases from one automotive company collected via interviews in which we applied the framework to analyze data-driven business models for which our interviewees are responsible.
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Adámek, Pavel, et Lucie Meixnerová. « Changes and Adaptations of Business Models Caused by the Crisis Scenario ». Dans Seventh International Scientific-Business Conference LIMEN Leadership, Innovation, Management and Economics : Integrated Politics of Research. Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans, Belgrade, Serbia, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.31410/limen.s.p.2021.9.

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Due to the fast-changing environment caused by the impact of the pandemic, a response to companies’ behavior is inevitable. These pan­demic crisis scenario triggers searching for changes, adjustment, and adap­tation of business models to seek new opportunities for competitive advan­tage. Therefore, the paper aims to analyze, identify and evaluate the impact of a pandemic on a firm´s business model, specifically to changes in its busi­ness elements. The research methodology applies a statistical apparatus mainly the Mann-Whitney U test, using the econometric software EViews for identifying the significance of individual business model elements within national economy sectors and branches before the pandemic and the cur­rent post-pandemic crisis. Data were obtained from 173 Czech and Slovak companies’ owners (executives). The findings represent the perception and view of businesses on the current post-pandemic crisis and their priorities changes in specific elements of business model
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Zharikov, Mikhail. « THE MODEL OF THE BRICS' SHARED INTEREST RATE TO CIRCULATE A DIGITAL CURRENCY ». Dans III International Conference Technology & Entrepreneurship in Digital Society. Real Economy Publishing House, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.17747/teds-2020-22-27.

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The purpose is to offer an approach to introducing a market interest rate to circulate a digital currency in the BRICS. The topic is time-relevant, since economics today faces difficult challenges posed by questions about price stability, future growth and money market equilibrium. A digital currency is a special issue today due to the outbreak of covid-19, which made many central banks think about contactless means of payment. The author revealed policy tools to circulate a hypothetical digital currency in the BRICS, needed for the pentalateral use. The theoretical significance is to lay the foundation for a model that can be used to set up a virtual regional money market for the BRICS. In practical terms the article recommends a set of policy decisions to overcome the coronavirus crisis of 2020.
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Ferenček, Aljaž. « Impact Assesment of Open Government Data ». Dans Digital Support from Crisis to Progressive Change. University of Maribor Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18690/978-961-286-485-9.56.

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Public sector organizations produce and process increasing amounts of data and the number of research and initiatives on open data is also increasing. Defining the true value of OGD is challenging without knowing how it impacts society and its economy. While the analysis of the economic benefits of open data is one way to describe the effect of government openness, the impact of open data is measured also in social and political context. Feedback mechanisms that are currently used are mostly surveys, while the number of OGD use cases is increasing. This paper proposes a preliminary model for research on assessing impact areas of OGD in an automated manner by using text mining techniques on existing use cases.
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Abbas, Antragama Ewa, Wirawan Agahari, Montijn van de Ven, Anneke Zuiderwijk et Mark de Reuver. « Business Data Sharing through Data Marketplaces : A Systematic Literature Review ». Dans Digital Support from Crisis to Progressive Change. University of Maribor Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18690/978-961-286-485-9.6.

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Data marketplaces are expected to play a crucial role in tomorrow’s data economy but hardly achieve commercial exploitation. Currently, there is no clear understanding of the knowledge gaps in data marketplace research, especially neglected research topics that may contribute to advancing data marketplaces towards commercialization. This study provides an overview of the state of the art of data marketplace research. We employ a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) approach and structure our analysis using the Service-TechnologyOrganization-Finance (STOF) model. We find that the extant data marketplace literature is primarily dominated by technical research, such as discussions about computational pricing and architecture. To move past the first stage of the platform’s lifecycle (i.e., platform design) to the second stage (i.e., platform adoption), we call for empirical research in non-technological areas, such as customer expected value and market segmentation.
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Geiger, Manuel, Franziska Jago et Susanne Robra-Bissanzt. « Physical vs. Digital Interactions : Value Generation Within CustomerRetailer Interaction ». Dans Digital Support from Crisis to Progressive Change. University of Maribor Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18690/978-961-286-485-9.12.

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The traditional retail sector is currently facing major challenges, particularly due to digitalisation and the associated changes in customer behaviour, increasing demands in the service world, new technologies and other factors. The COVID19 pandemic has accelerated and intensified this process. From a retailer's point of view, it is essential to create value for the customer through digital interactions. In this article, a study based on the Value in Interaction Model investigates whether it is possible for physical retailers to make a digitally supported interaction as valuable as the direct contact in the store and what influence this has on the Perceived Relationship Quality. The results show that the difference in perceived value between the physical and digital retailer interaction is relatively small. This proves that when the interaction layers are actively designed with a focus on value, a digital interaction can be almost as valuable as the traditional in-store interaction.
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Ghorbanian Zolbin, Maedeh, Khadijah Kainat et Shahrokh Nikou. « Health Information Literacy : The Saving Grace During Traumatic Times ». Dans Digital Support from Crisis to Progressive Change. University of Maribor Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18690/978-961-286-485-9.22.

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t When it comes to engaging with health information in their daily lives, people face different challenges. In the context of COVID-19, the aim of this study is to determine whether health information literacy can assist people in making informed health-related decisions. An empirical study was conducted to investigate such an effect. Building on a dataset composed of 155 respondents, the research model was examined through structural equation modelling. The results showed that health information literacy – as an individual ability – not only influences health decision making but also has a direct impact on the awareness of the challenges imposed by the current pandemic situation. In addition, the results show that too much information leads to information fatigue, and consequently negatively impacts decision making. The findings of this paper show that the concept of health information literacy should be understood and developed separately from the health literacy concept. Theoretical contributions and practical implications are discussed.
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Rystemaj, Jonida, et Eniana Qarri. « THE RESPONSE OF THE ALBANIAN COMPETITION AUTHORITY TO THE COVID-19 CRISIS ». Dans International Jean Monnet Module Conference of EU and Comparative Competition Law Issues "Competition Law (in Pandemic Times) : Challenges and Reforms. Faculty of Law, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.25234/eclic/18825.

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The outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic was a shock for the global economy. It affected almost every country, but certainly in developing countries its impact was harder. The immediate effect was the shortage of several medical and paramedical equipment which were necessary to prevent the virus spread. This shortage was felt in Albanian markets as well and was rapidly followed by a sharp increase of prices in paramedical products. The consumers suffered the highly increased prices amongst fear that in absence of these products, their life was threatened. This behaviour of the market participants was considered suspicious by the Competition Authority which decided to initiate a preliminary investigation to find out whether this behaviour was abusive, or it normally reflected the sudden shortage and the state of emergency. The instigation of this procedure was based on several complaints reported in the media and complaints directly submitted by consumers to the Competition Authority. At the first glance, the traders were exploiting the health emergency to maximise their profits. Subsequently, the Competition Authority (CA) decided to apply some preliminary measures on the wholesale market operators. Furthermore, the CA intervened even in a case of a company in dominant position which was furnishing selected pharmacies. These interventions aimed at restoring somehow the distorted competition in paramedical and medical products. This article will try to shed light on the current market situation and on the effectiveness of the interventions of the CA. How should the Competition Authority behave to restore the distorted competition? Are the current introduced measures enough to help all market participants overcome this state of health emergency? These questions and other issues related with the peculiar situation will be addressed in the current article. The article will be organized as follows: First, a glimpse of the regulation of Albanian competition law will be given. Second, the situation under COVID-19 emergency will be elaborated taking into consideration the guidelines of Communication of the Commission on “Temporary Framework for assessing antitrust issues related to business cooperation in response to situations of urgency stemming from the current COVID-19 outbreak” (2020/C 116 I/02). Lastly, the evaluation of the measures introduced by the Competition authority will be analysed and recommendations will be provided.
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Đorđević, Bojan, et Sunčica Stanković. « The COVID-19 Pandemic, Government Response, and Serbian Stock Market : Evidence from ARDL Cointegration Model ». Dans 6th International Scientific Conference – EMAN 2022 – Economics and Management : How to Cope With Disrupted Times. Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans, Belgrade, Serbia, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.31410/eman.s.p.2022.59.

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The existence of a real possibility that the current health crisis could lead to an economic crisis has prompted governments worldwide to make great efforts to sustain their markets. This paper explores the im­pact of COVID-19 and Serbian government anti-Covid activities on the do­mestic stock market using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Coin­tegration model. In its research, the paper considers the impact of the num­ber of newly infected and the number of deaths from coronavirus daily, as well as measures taken by governments to combat viruses on the represent­ative Belgrade stock exchange index BELEX15. The results showed a signifi­cant long-term negative impact on the number of deaths per day and inter­national travel control on the BELEX15 index. In terms of reducing the neg­ative consequences of the crisis caused by the global pandemic, these re­sults could be a good guideline for effective management of government measures.
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Rapports d'organisations sur le sujet "Currency crises – Models"

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Obstfeld, Maurice. Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, octobre 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w5285.

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Соловйов, Володимир Миколайович, et D. N. Chabanenko. Financial crisis phenomena : analysis, simulation and prediction. Econophysic’s approach. Гумбольдт-Клуб Україна, novembre 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.31812/0564/1138.

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With the beginning of the global financial crisis, which attracts the attention of the international community, the inability of existing methods to predict the events became obvious. Creation, testing, adaptation of the models to the concrete financial market segments for the purpose of monitoring, early prediction, prevention and notification of financial crises is gaining currency nowadays. Econophysics is an interdisciplinary research field, applying theories and methods originally developed by physicists in order to solve problems in economics, usually those including uncertainty or stochastic processes and nonlinear dynamics. Its application to the study of financial markets has also been termed statistical finance referring to its roots in statistical physics. The new paradigm of relativistic quantum econophysics is proposed.
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Chinn, Menzie, Michael Dooley et Sona Shrestha. Latin America and East Asia in the Context of an Insurance Model of Currency Crises. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, avril 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w7091.

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Cavallo, Eduardo A., Andrew Powell et María José González Jaramillo. Open configuration options Sudden Stops in Latin America and the Caribbean during COVID-19. Inter-American Development Bank, février 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003999.

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External capital accounts suffered during the COVID-19 crisis in Latin America and the Caribbean, but perhaps surprisingly the impacts were less severe than in previous crises. Gross capital inflows offset the outflows of residents, in sharp contrast to the global financial crisis of 2008/09 when residents repatriation of capital countered withdrawals from non-residents. In general, the result was relatively stable net capital inflows and modest current account adjustments. Still, some countries that had seen inflows fall prior to the crisis, reflecting weaker fundamentals, suffered Sudden Stops in net capital flows. Given accommodating global monetary policy, sound fundamentals ensured access to liquid international capital markets, reducing the impacts of Sudden Stops during the pandemic.
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Batyr, A. V., Володимир Миколайович Соловйов et E. P. Sedov. The Cyclic Surgings as One of the Reasons of the Modern Economical Crisis. Information Systems Management Institute, avril 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.31812/0564/1130.

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Since the problem of the world economical crisis is gaming importance nowadays, it becomes necessary to reveal its real nature and reasons, in order to act in the most adequate way. The cycle theory is a possible explanation for the current situation in the economy.We have carried out our own investigation, during which the economies of USA, United Kingdom and France in 1961-2007 were compared. The real GDP and unemployment dynamics were taken into consideration. We also paid attention to historical events of the period and Kondratiev’s empiric truths, in order to explain both the most powerful crises and the modern one.
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Soloviev, V. N., et Y. V. Romanenko. Economic analog of Heisenberg uncertainly principle and financial crisis. ESC "IASA" NTUU "Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute", mai 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.31812/0564/2463.

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The Heisenberg uncertainty principle is one of the cornerstones of quantum mechanics. The modern version of the uncertainty principle, deals not with the precision of a measurement and the disturbance it introduces, but with the intrinsic uncertainty any quantum state must possess, regardless of what measurement is performed. Recently, the study of uncertainty relations in general has been a topic of growing interest, specifically in the setting of quantum information and quantum cryptography, where it is fundamental to the security of certain protocols. The aim of this study is to analyze the concepts and fundamental physical constants in terms of achievements of modern theoretical physics, they search for adequate and useful analogues in the socio-economic phenomena and processes, and their possible use in early warning of adverse crisis in financial markets. The instability of global financial systems depending on ordinary and natural disturbances in modern markets and highly undesirable financial crises are the evidence of methodological crisis in modelling, predicting and interpretation of current socio-economic conditions.
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Vargas-Riaño, Carmiña Ofelia, et Julian Parra-Polania. Relevance of the collateral constraint form in the analysis of financial crisis interventions. Banco de la República, janvier 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/be.1190.

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We combine two modifications to the standard (current and total income) collateral constraint that has been commonly used in models that analyze financial crisis interventions. Specifically, we consider an alternative constraint stated in terms of future and disposable income. We find that in this case a state-contingent debt tax (effective during crisis only, as opposed to a macroprudential tax) increases debt capacity and lowers the probability of crisis. This shows one more instance to call the attention of academics and policymakers to the fact that the specific form of the borrowing constraint is crucial in determining the appropriate crisis intervention.
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Trapani, Paola. Collaborative Housing as a Response to the Housing Crisis in Auckland. Unitec ePress, juillet 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.34074/ocds.0821.

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According to future projections based on current demographic growth trends, Auckland’s population will reach two million in 2033. Since the city is already afflicted by a serious housing crisis, at the beginning of 2017 the newly elected Mayor Phil Goff set up a task force. Formed by representatives of various stakeholders, it was given the task of producing a report with strategic and tactical guidelines to mitigate the situation. Unitec researchers were invited to respond to the report, which came out at the end of 2017, in the form of three think pieces towards the Building Better Homes, Towns and Cities National Science Challenge. This paper is a new iteration of one of these think pieces, focused on collaborative living, and expands on the new role that designers should play in this field. Its ideological position is that the house cannot and should not be considered as a commodity on the free market; nor should focus solely be on bringing down prices by increasing the number of houses on offer. Over time, housing might evolve to being more about social (use) value than exchange value. Other models of the production and consumption of household goods are documented throughout the world as alternatives to mainstream market logic, using collective procurement mechanisms to cut construction and marketing costs with savings of up to 30%. These experiments, not limited to achieving financially sustainable outcomes, are linked to new social practices of collaboration between neighbours. The sharing of spaces and equipment to complement private housing units also leads to social and environmental sustainability.
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Соловйов, В. М., et В. В. Соловйова. Моделювання мультиплексних мереж. Видавець Ткачук О.В., 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.31812/0564/1253.

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From the standpoint of interdisciplinary self-organization theories and synergetics analyzes current approaches to modeling socio-economic systems. It is shown that the complex network paradigm is the foundation on which to build predictive models of complex systems. We consider two algorithms to transform time series or a set of time series to the network: recurrent and graph visibility. For the received network designed dynamic spectral, topological and multiplex measures of complexity. For example, the daily values the stock indices show that most of the complexity measures behaving in a characteristic way in time periods that characterize the different phases of the behavior and state of the stock market. This fact encouraged to use monitoring and prediction of critical and crisis states in socio-economic systems.
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Rezaie, Shogofa, Fedra Vanhuyse, Karin André et Maryna Henrysson. Governing the circular economy : how urban policymakers can accelerate the agenda. Stockholm Environment Institute, septembre 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.51414/sei2022.027.

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We believe the climate crisis will be resolved in cities. Today, while cities occupy only 2% of the Earth's surface, 57% of the world's population lives in cities, and by 2050, it will jump to 68% (UN, 2018). Currently, cities consume over 75% of natural resources, accumulate 50% of the global waste and emit up to 80% of greenhouse gases (Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2017). Cities generate 70% of the global gross domestic product and are significant drivers of economic growth (UN-Habitat III, 2016). At the same time, cities sit on the frontline of natural disasters such as floods, storms and droughts (De Sherbinin et al., 2007; Major et al., 2011; Rockström et al., 2021). One of the sustainability pathways to reduce the environmental consequences of the current extract-make-dispose model (or the "linear economy") is a circular economy (CE) model. A CE is defined as "an economic system that is based on business models which replace the 'end-of-life' concept with reducing, alternatively reusing, recycling and recovering materials in production/distribution and consumption processes" (Kirchherr et al., 2017, p. 224). By redesigning production processes and thereby extending the lifespan of goods and materials, researchers suggest that CE approaches reduce waste and increase employment and resource security while sustaining business competitiveness (Korhonen et al., 2018; Niskanen et al., 2020; Stahel, 2012; Winans et al., 2017). Organizations such as the Ellen MacArthur Foundation and Circle Economy help steer businesses toward CE strategies. The CE is also a political priority in countries and municipalities globally. For instance, the CE Action Plan, launched by the European Commission in 2015 and reconfirmed in 2020, is a central pillar of the European Green Deal (European Commission, 2015, 2020). Additionally, more governments are implementing national CE strategies in China (Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2018), Colombia (Government of the Republic of Colombia, 2019), Finland (Sitra, 2016), Sweden (Government Offices of Sweden, 2020) and the US (Metabolic, 2018, 2019), to name a few. Meanwhile, more cities worldwide are adopting CE models to achieve more resource-efficient urban management systems, thereby advancing their environmental ambitions (Petit-Boix & Leipold, 2018; Turcu & Gillie, 2020; Vanhuyse, Haddaway, et al., 2021). Cities with CE ambitions include, Amsterdam, Barcelona, Paris, Toronto, Peterborough (England) and Umeå (Sweden) (OECD, 2020a). In Europe, over 60 cities signed the European Circular Cities Declaration (2020) to harmonize the transition towards a CE in the region. In this policy brief, we provide insights into common challenges local governments face in implementing their CE plans and suggest recommendations for overcoming these. It aims to answer the question: How can the CE agenda be governed in cities? It is based on the results of the Urban Circularity Assessment Framework (UCAF) project, building on findings from 25 interviews, focus group discussions and workshops held with different stakeholder groups in Umeå, as well as research on Stockholm's urban circularity potential, including findings from 11 expert interviews (Rezaie, 2021). Our findings were complemented by the Circular Economy Lab project (Rezaie et al., 2022) and experiences from working with municipal governments in Sweden, Belgium, France and the UK, on CE and environmental and social sustainability.
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