Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Continuous time Bayesian network classifiers »

AbstractMost of the sampled data in complex industrial processes are sequential in time. Therefore, the traditional BN learning mechanisms have limitations on the value of probability and cannot be applied to the time series. The model established in Chap. 10.1007/978-981-16-8044-1_13 is a graphical model similar to a Bayesian network, but its parameter learning method can only handle the discrete variables. This chapter aims at the probabilistic graphical model directly for the continuous process variables, which avoids the assumption of discrete or Gaussian distributions.

Bayesian Network classifiers (BNCs) are Bayesian Network (BN) models specifically tailored for classification tasks. There is a wide range of existing models that vary in complexity and efficiency. All of them have in common the ability to deal with uncertainty in a very natural way, at the same time providing a descriptive environment. In this chapter, the authors focus on the family of semi-naïve Bayesian classifiers (naïve Bayes, AODE, TAN, kDB, etc.), motivated by the good trade-off between efficiency and performance they provide. The domain of the BNs is generally of discrete nature, but since the presence of continuous variables is very common, the chapter discusses more classical and novel approaches to handling numeric data. In this chapter the authors also discuss more recent techniques such as multi-dimensional and dynamic models. Last but not least, they focus on applications and recent developments, including some of the BNCs approaches to the multi-class problem together with other traditionally successful and cutting edge cases regarding real-world applications.

A basic task of machine learning and data mining is to automatically uncover <b>patterns</b> that reflect regularities in a data set. When dealing with a large database, especially when domain knowledge is not available or very weak, this can be a challenging task. The purpose of <b>pattern discovery</b> is to find non-random relations among events from data sets. For example, the “exclusive OR” (XOR) problem concerns 3 binary variables, A, B and C=A<img src="http://resources.igi-global.com/Marketing/Preface_Figures/x_symbol.png">B, i.e. C is true when either A or B, but not both, is true. Suppose not knowing that it is the XOR problem, we would like to check whether or not the occurrence of the compound event [A=T, B=T, C=F] is just a random happening. If we could estimate its frequency of occurrences under the random assumption, then we know that it is not random if the observed frequency deviates significantly from that assumption. We refer to such a compound event as an event association pattern, or simply a <b>pattern</b>, if its frequency of occurrences significantly deviates from the default random assumption in the statistical sense. For instance, suppose that an XOR database contains 1000 samples and each primary event (e.g. [A=T]) occurs 500 times. The expected frequency of occurrences of the compound event [A=T, B=T, C=F] under the independence assumption is 0.5×0.5×0.5×1000 = 125. Suppose that its observed frequency is 250, we would like to see whether or not the difference between the observed and expected frequencies (i.e. 250 – 125) is significant enough to indicate that the compound event is not a random happening.<div><br></div><div>In statistics, to test the correlation between random variables, <b>contingency table</b> with chi-squared statistic (Mills, 1955) is widely used. Instead of investigating variable correlations, pattern discovery shifts the traditional correlation analysis in statistics at the variable level to association analysis at the event level, offering an effective method to detect statistical association among events.</div><div><br></div><div>In the early 90’s, this approach was established for second order event associations (Chan & Wong, 1990). A higher order <b>pattern discovery</b> algorithm was devised in the mid 90’s for discrete-valued data sets (Wong & Yang, 1997). In our methods, patterns inherent in data are defined as statistically significant associations of two or more primary events of different attributes if they pass a statistical test for deviation significance based on <b>residual analysis</b>. The discovered high order patterns can then be used for classification (Wang & Wong, 2003). With continuous data, events are defined as Borel sets and the pattern discovery process is formulated as an optimization problem which recursively partitions the sample space for the best set of significant events (patterns) in the form of high dimension intervals from which probability density can be estimated by Gaussian kernel fit (Chau & Wong, 1999). Classification can then be achieved using Bayesian classifiers. For data with a mixture of discrete and continuous data (Wong & Yang, 2003), the latter is categorized based on a global optimization discretization algorithm (Liu, Wong & Yang, 2004). As demonstrated in numerous real-world and commercial applications (Yang, 2002), pattern discovery is an ideal tool to uncover subtle and useful patterns in a database. </div><div><br></div><div>In pattern discovery, three open problems are addressed. The first concerns learning where noise and uncertainty are present. In our method, noise is taken as inconsistent samples against statistically significant patterns. Missing attribute values are also considered as noise. Using a standard statistical <b>hypothesis testing</b> to confirm statistical patterns from the candidates, this method is a less ad hoc approach to discover patterns than most of its contemporaries. The second problem concerns the detection of polythetic patterns without relying on exhaustive search. Efficient systems for detecting monothetic patterns between two attributes exist (e.g. Chan & Wong, 1990). However, for detecting polythetic patterns, an exhaustive search is required (Han, 2001). In many problem domains, polythetic assessments of feature combinations (or higher order relationship detection) are imperative for robust learning. Our method resolves this problem by directly constructing polythetic concepts while screening out non-informative pattern candidates, using statisticsbased heuristics in the discovery process. The third problem concerns the representation of the detected patterns. Traditionally, if-then rules and graphs, including networks and trees, are the most popular ones. However, they have shortcomings when dealing with multilevel and multiple order patterns due to the non-exhaustive and unpredictable hierarchical nature of the inherent patterns. We adopt <b>attributed hypergraph</b> (AHG) (Wang & Wong, 1996) as the representation of the detected patterns. It is a data structure general enough to encode information at many levels of abstraction, yet simple enough to quantify the information content of its organized structure. It is able to encode both the qualitative and the quantitative characteristics and relations inherent in the data set.<br></div>

Non-stationary continuous time Bayesian networks are introduced. They allow the parents set of each node in a continuous time Bayesian network to change over time. Structural learning of nonstationary continuous time Bayesian networks is developed under different knowledge settings. A macroeconomic dataset is used to assess the effectiveness of learning non-stationary continuous time Bayesian networks from real-world data.

Recent research in the field of composite materials has shown that it is theoretically possible to produce composite materials with macroscopic mechanical stiffness and loss properties that surpass those of conventional composites. This research explores the possibility of designing and fabricating these composite materials by embedding small volume fractions of negative stiffness inclusions in a continuous host material. Achieving high stiffness and loss from these materials by design, however, is a nontrivial task. This paper presents a hierarchical multiscale material model for these materi

In many applications, one can define a large set of features to support the classification task at hand. At test time, however, these become prohibitively expensive to evaluate, and only a small subset of features is used, often selected for their information-theoretic value. For threshold-based, Naive Bayes classifiers, recent work has suggested selecting features that maximize the expected robustness of the classifier, that is, the expected probability it maintains its decision after seeing more features. We propose the first algorithm to compute this expected same-decision probability for g

Recently there has been growing interest in learning probabilistic models that admit poly-time inference called tractable probabilistic models from data. Although they generalize poorly as compared to intractable models, they often yield more accurate estimates at prediction time. In this paper, we seek to further explore this trade-off between generalization performance and inference accuracy by proposing a novel, partially tractable representation called cutset Bayesian networks (CBNs). The main idea in CBNs is to partition the variables into two subsets X and Y, learn a (intractable) Bayesi

Exploration of a design space is the first step in identifying sets of high-performing solutions to complex engineering problems. For this purpose, Bayesian network classifiers (BNCs) have been shown to be effective for mapping regions of interest in the design space, even when those regions of interest exhibit complex topologies. However, identifying sets of desirable solutions can be difficult with a BNC when attempting to map a space where high-performance designs are spread sparsely among a disproportionately large number of low-performance designs, resulting in an imbalanced classifier. I

Abstract History matching is critical in subsurface flow modeling. It is to align the reservoir model with the measured data. However, it remains challenging since the solution is not unique and the implementation is expensive. The traditional approach relies on trial and error, which are exhaustive and labor-intensive. In this study, we propose a new workflow utilizing Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to automatically and accurately perform history matching. We deliver four novelties within the workflow: 1) the use of multi-resolution low-fidelity models to guarantee high-quality matc

Modern manufacturing processes are increasing becoming cyber-physical in nature, where a computational system monitors the system performance, provides real-time process control by analyzing sensor data collected regarding process and product characteristics, in order to increase the quality of the manufactured product. Such real-time process monitoring and control techniques are useful in precision and ultra-precision machining processes. However, the output product quality is affected by several uncertainty sources in various stages of the manufacturing process such as the sensor uncertainty

The objective of this work is a multiscale, set-based design method for mechanical components and their manufacturing processes and materials with interactive identification of feasible design regions. A unique aspect of the proposed method is the ability to adjust both material properties, through process planning, and part geometry, through exploration of various cellular structures (e.g., lattices, honeycombs), in order to achieve design goals. More specifically, the proposed design method can effectively explore the achievement of desired mechanical properties by controlling process condit

The paper presents a method for analyzing data from sensors and developing the predictive models based on learning methods. There are some methods, described on scientific literature, such as statistical methods (linear regression, logistic regression, and Bayesian models), advanced methods based on machine learning and data mining (decision trees and artificial neural networks) and survival models. All of these methods are intended to discover the correlation and covariance between biomedical parameters. This paper presents the decision tree method for predictive health modeling based on mach