Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Consumer behavior – Statistics – Periodicals »

Introduction. Despite the high importance of scientific schools in jurisprudence, there is a lack of objective data confirming or refuting the role of associations of this type for the social sciences. To determine the importance of long-term associations of scientists for conducting research, to demonstrate the effectiveness of various groups of journals that inform the legal community about the importance of collective cognitive activity. Theoretical Basis. Methods. Based on statistical research methods of publications published in the Scientific Electronic Library “eLIBRARY.RU”, the conclusion is made about the importance of scientific schools for conducting research activities in the fields of natural, technical, medical, agricultural and socio-humanitarian sciences. Results. A pattern has been revealed: if the object of study is a person as a biological unit (for medical sciences) or a social unit (for social sciences and humanities), the number of mentions of scientific schools in publications on the relevant topic is generally higher compared to natural, technical or agricultural sciences. The scientific school is of the highest importance for such a fundamental legal discipline as the history of state and law. According to the frequency of appeals to the phenomenon of the scientific school, the science of the history of state and law is closer to the historical sciences than to the legal ones. The importance of collective research in the field of law and collective knowledge of reality is not sufficiently communicated to practicing lawyers in periodicals aimed at the appropriate audience. Discussion and Conclusions. Complex self-regulating systems as objects of research, whose behavior is characterized by the property of low predictability, have another system as one of the tools and measurement parameters – the scientific school and its founder. The society is one of the most complex self-regulating systems, which explains the role played by the scientific school in the field of jurisprudence. Practitioners should be involved in the work of research teams, whose work contributes to increasing the degree of reliability of research results, increases the practical significance and accessibility for the consumer of scientific products.

The article presents the results of the study “Lifestyle of student youth: behavioral risks”, which was carried out in 2016–2017. The survey was conducted among college and university students aged 17–23 years. The particularities of influence of alcohol on the guideline beliefs of young people about sexuality and in particular on sexual behavior are revealed. Youth consuming alcohol beverages systematically is distinguished by a more liberal attitude towards sex and premarital sexual contacts, as well as broad guideline beliefs about the acceptability of various sexual activities, and a lower sexual culture. The results of a sociological survey indicate a high sexual activity of students. The low level of social culture and education, the immature system of sexual education, a large number of questionable sources of information on this topic are the causes of this problem. The article identifies the negative effects of alcohol consumption before intimacy, as well as the level of knowledge of young people on safe sex issues. An analysis of medical statistics indicates that alcohol and drugs that are consumed even periodically increase the potential risk of HIV infection. The extensive empirical material of the sociology sector of deviant behavior shows the main behavioral risks to the health of the youth: alcohol consumption, risky sexual behavior. Also, the role of prevention of risky sex among the young is indicated, which should be based on timely moral and ethical education. The need was emphasized for prevention of alcohol abuse to the extent of the spiritual and moral education of young people, as well as the propaganda of safe sexual behavior.

The article discusses the features of the influence of modern digital communications on consumer behavior. An analysis of research and publications of both domestic and foreign authors on the problems and trends of the impact of digitalization of society and the development of digital communications on consumer behavior is carried out. It is pointed out that, in general, the digitalization of society and the development of digital communications lead to a change in consumer behavior, requiring companies and marketers to adapt to new conditions and use modern technologies and methods of communication. Considering this, it is necessary to clearly understand the features of digital communication tools and their impact on consumer behavior, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of each of them. The aim of the research is to study the impact of modern digital communications on consumer behavior and consider the advantages and disadvantages of the main tools of modern digital communications. The object of the research is the impact of modern digital communications on consumer behavior. The subject of the research is digital communication tools. In the course of the research, the methods of questioning, structural and logical analysis, comparison and generalization of the findings were used. The methodological and informational basis comprise scientific works, materials of periodicals, Internet resources. The article analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of tools for influencing consumer behavior, such as: banner advertising, paid search advertising, video advertising, teaser advertising, SEO, external links, content optimization, SMS messaging, E-mail newsletters, mobile applications, price aggregators, social media marketing (SMM). Emphasis is placed on the statement that digital communications play an important role in shaping behavior of consumers, providing the latter with access to information, the ability to compare goods and services, interact with brands. All this helps companies attract new customers, retain existing ones, and increase sales.

This research piece examines how advertisements influence consumers' final purchase choices. Customers' attitudes and actions toward a product may be impacted by the advertising campaign's portrayal of the brand, its persuasiveness, and the presence of a celebrity endorsing the product. Advertising influences consumer behavior through shaping consumers' perceptions of the product. The research shows that consumers are greatly influenced by commercials that are both creative and well produced. Quality and cost are also taken into account since they have an effect on customer decisions. The point of advertising is to see how it affects consumers' purchasing decisions.

Cosmetics also known as make-up kit are care stuffs used to enhance or maintain appearance or odor of the person’s body. In twenty first century the use of cosmetic is common phenomenon throughout the world. The purpose of this study is to investigate factors that have impact on consumer purchasing behavior of cosmetic products in Dhaka city, Bangladesh. In this research cosmetic means personal care products. These include, skin moisturizers, perfumes, lipsticks, shampoos, toothpastes, after shave, soap and deodorants. Independent Variables were chosen after reviewing relevant and related literature of previous studies. A random sampling survey methodology was followed and 321 completed sample responses were collected for the study. Statistical tool SPSS 20.00 was used for data analysis. Descriptive statistics was implemented in order to describe the demographic characteristics; ten independent variables have been tested to find out their influence on consumer purchase decision. Factor analysis was used to find out major factors from those variables. The research results showed that three major factors named as consumer perception, external influence and psychological motive influence purchase decision of cosmetic products in Dhaka city. This result can guide marketers to understand the purchase behavior of cosmetic product users of Bangladesh which will also help them in better segmenting this market and implementing marketing mix more effectively.

Consumer complaints are continuously growing in Thailand; although consumer protection laws protect the Thai people while the current situation differs. Therefore, this research investigated the marketing ethics of consumer products from the perspective of Thai consumers and suggested the development of marketing ethics strategies for Thai businesses. This quantitative research used a questionnaire to collect data from 400 Thai consumers, which focused on personal factors, consumer buying behavior, problem & solution requirement, and satisfaction towards the marketing ethics of consumer products. The collected data were analyzed by descriptive statistics such as frequency, percentage, mean and standard deviation, and inference statistics to test the research hypotheses. The research results showed that the buying problems were high prices, deceptive advertising, selling prices over the price tag, defective/expired products, and below specification. Meanwhile, consumers required product replacement or money refunds as their preferred solution choices from producers at most. The hypotheses testing found that differences in personal factors (age and marital status) resulted in different preferences on marketing ethics of consumer products satisfaction, but the gender factor showed no differences. Meanwhile, consumer behavior factors (product type buying and buying frequency) and problem-solution requirement factor (no-any-action) resulted in different preferences on marketing ethics of consumer products satisfaction at a statistically significant difference of 0.05.

The behavior of e-customers is quite unpredictable, which raises additional questions about this topic. The purpose of the paper is to conduct research on e-customers, understand the impact of marketing actions on e-customer behavior and understand the unpredictability of e-customers. Research was conducted on the Mlinar web shop that sells cakes. 284 respondents/buyers had the opportunity to solve questionnaires about behavior after purchase and consumption of product. Different methods have been used in the analysis - descriptive statistics, multivariate analysis (reliability analysis, correlation analysis and linear regression) and analysis of variance (ANOVA). The results showed that most examinees were satisfied with online shopping on the Mlinar web shop and that they are impulsive when online shopping. Saving time is the main reason to buy on a web shop. Research proved that variables such as firm reputation/perceived value, e-satisfaction and online services positively affect the creation of e-loyalty in their users.

Abstract Context of sustainable consumption is based on conscious and rational behaving consumer. The retail industry, from suburban big-box stores to boutique shops, is among the most public of industries. Retailers employ millions and directly enable most consumer purchases. As such, they are in a unique position to advance sustainability by educating consumers and offering products with recycled content, durability, and ethical supply chains. In this article, we write about what leading retailers are doing or not doing to advance principals of sustainability in the products or services they sell, and how the consumers sustainably thing. The article is a part of Scientifics project VEGA 1/0874/14: Use of neuromarketing in visual merchandising of food industry. The main aim of our articele is through the selected statistics methods, to analyse an impact of sustainability on consumer decision and the processes in doing a good business in final visual merchandising. Through Apriori and association rules methods, we modelled a prototype of sustainable consumer on the basis of our questionnaire research, done in 2013 year and we mention a consumer behavior to food waste.

Marketers must be able to categorize consumers according to some definable characteristics in order to help tailor their marketing effort. Black consumers are usually grouped into one homogenous group even though some of them are immigrants. The segmenting of the different ethnic groups needs to be modified to include different cultures among the same ethnic group. This thesis compares the differences of these subgroups in beliefs, attitudes and past purchase behaviors in response to direct marketing advertising.

Prior research has shown that both lead users and opinion leaders may propel the diffusion of innovation. This raises the question of whether lead users and opinion leaders are positioned similarly in social networks, which we address using a sample of 23 school classes consisting of 537 children. Research among children is very scarce in this particular domain. Our statistical analyses based on hierarchical linear modeling reveal two general results: first, lead users among children appear to possess a variety of links between clusters; second, opinion leaders are locally positioned within clusters of children and have many direct links. (authors' abstract)

碩士
長榮大學
資訊管理學系碩士班
101
In the era of customer orientation, enterprises need to do customer relationship management in order to improve customer service quality and enterprise competitiveness. And to do the customer relationship management, we must first understand customer purchasing behavior. Because the customer purchasing behavior has interactive, dynamic and many other features, to understand it by personal experience cannot meet the management needs. At present, large number of customer transaction data has been gathered and stored in databases, how to analyze the customer purchasing behavior information from large customer databases becomes one of the important research issues. The aim of this research is to investigate the customer purchasing behavior by multivariate approach. First of all, we run k-medoids clustering methods with the combination of association rules and RFM scores data and interpret the meaning of the outcome clusters. Then, the customer groups identified through the k-mean clustering method and traditional RFM scoring method are compared in order to understand the difference between these two methods. Finally, we conduct decision tree analysis to analyze what is the major variable determine the assignment of customer group in previous k-mean clustering analysis. The results of our research show that the combination of association rules and numerical data analysis can provide a new insight of customer purchasing behavior; and compared two different customer values identification methods provides a new perspective of customer value; and through the decision tree analysis, we understand the purchase amount (M) in the RFM model is a more important variable. By understanding the customer purchasing behavior and identify customer value, we will be able to provide enterprise to make appropriate marketing strategies for effective customer relationship management and enhance the competitiveness of enterprises.

AbstractThe impact of the Memorable Tourism Experiences (MTEs) on the behavior of a consumer offers substantial further research potential, despite the interest exemplified in recent academic work. The aim is to investigate the impact of the seven dimensions of MTEs with reference to the visitor’s inclination to return to specific location. An online survey was used. 720 visitors to the Greek island of Santorini formed the quantitative research convenience sample. Reliability analysis as well as descriptive statistics and structural Equation Modeling (SEM) were carried out with the use of SPSS AMOS 23. Research revealed that the dimensions of hedonism, novelty, involvement and meaningfulness impact heavily on the traveler’s intention to return to a destination. The work evaluates the significance of the different dimensions and identifies the location’s key elements of MTEs. On a theoretical level, it adds to the existing literature by shedding new light on the emerging and underexplored topic of MTEs dimensions’ impact on the desire to revisit a destination. Practically, the tourist businesses have guidelines at their disposal pertaining to budget allocations as well as relevant MTEs improvements.

The consumption of fabrics in 18th-Century Europe experienced a notable expansion - particularly in France, a major hub for the diffusion of clothing fashions across the continent. Driven by manufacturers and merchants, the supply of new product varieties has been highlighted in several French production areas. However, a general assessment of the scale and rates of product innovation in the market for fabrics has never been attempted. By varying the scales of analysis, from the statistics the French monarchy used to assess production in the various production areas to store inventories, we can try to estimate the secular movements of product innovation. Over the course of the 18th century, the market for medium or poor quality cloths appears to have been particularly dynamic: the proportion of new varieties at the end of the century approximated two-thirds of the stock. There was also a tendency to diversify the supply - which ended up making the "world of goods" difficult to read, many product innovations being present on the market only for a while.

The “un-contestable hegemony of consumer capitalism” (Gabriel & Lang, 2006, p. 2) as the prevailing ideology of our times locates it as the primary creator and driver of production, competition, innovation, value and, latterly, values. In 1995, Miller recognised that “consumption, rather than production, was the vanguard of history” (p. 1). In that same year, the United Nations issued alarming statistics highlighting the influence of marketing on materialism and the fact that inequality in consumption was far wider than expected, severely undermining the environmental resource base. The backdrop of social theory and political economy within which consumerism and consumption are framed is a fragmented and complex one which has an unstable nature influenced by a range of complicated macro environmental factors. It is a postmodern landscape characterised by an all-pervasive consumer culture, the imperative of consumer rights and the use of consumption as a source of meaning. This chapter attempts to present a critical examination of the dominant academic, political, cultural and ecological discourses which constitute and contribute to this debate. At the epicentre is a post-modern dilemma about the delusion of choice, the illusion of freedom and the imperative of control - shifting priority from conspicuous consumption to conscientious conscience consumption.

PET (Polyethylene Terephthalate) waste is a crucial problem because of its high consumption as disposable packaging. Even used PET plastic is the most accessible type of plastic to recycle. So, recycling PET plastic waste is a solution to the problem of plastic waste that contributes to environmental safety while providing economic benefits towards a circular economy. In a circular economy, the consumer is the initial entity producing waste to be recycled. So that consumers can act as suppliers in reverse logistics, this study aims to analyze consumer behavior after PET consumption in terms of economic, social, environmental, and regulatory aspects. This study was conducted with a survey on household consumers with residence, education, and income variables. The survey results were presented using descriptive statistics, and the relationship between the variables was tested using the Chi-Square test. The survey results show an association between residence, education, and income variables with post-consumption consumer behavior. This research contributes to determining consumer behavior, leading to increased consumer engagement in the return of waste products in reverse logistics through implementing policies.

This study examines the influence of green marketing on consumer behavior, including purchasing habits, brand allegiance, and inclination to pay a premium. This research provides a clear definition of green marketing and examines different marketing strategies used by firms to advertise environmentally friendly products and services. A quantitative study approach was used, using a sample of 200 consumers who had previously made purchases of ecologically sustainable items or services. The acquired data was analyzed using regression analysis and qualitative statistics. Research findings demonstrate a substantial impact of environmental marketing on customer behavior. Consumers are inclined to choose ecologically friendly items and are prepared to pay a higher price for them when they are exposed to marketing strategies that promote environmental consciousness. Green marketing also enhances client loyalty. The results have substantial ramifications for organizations who are marketing eco-friendly goods and services.

Social media analytics records incorporate a various set of metrics and insights derived from diverse social media structures. It serves as a vital useful resource for businesses, entrepreneurs, and people looking for to realise consumer engagement, behavior, and the effectiveness in their on-line endeavors. Key additives of this facts encompass engagement metrics, follower growth, attain, and conversion charges. additionally,demographic statistics and sentiment evaluation provide valuable target audience insights, enabling personalized content material strategies. Competitor benchmarking and consumer remarks evaluation enhance strategic choice-making. Leveraging specialized tools and systems, social media analytics statistics empowers customers to optimize their on-line presence and advertising efforts

In the modern world, credit plays an important role in the economic system of any country. Its necessity is reflected in the formation of free funds, the availability of needs for them; in the interaction of both cash and non-cash turnover; in the influence on the processes of production, sale and use of products, in the organization of an increase in the scale of activities of market participants; as well as in the expansion of international cooperation and foreign economic relations. Within the framework of state economic relations, consumer lending increases consumer demand for services and durable goods, which accelerates their implementation and increases budget revenues. With the right lending system, the indicator of the difference in the financial condition of various social groups decreases, thereby reducing the social difference. The author of the article investigates the main factors influencing the development of consumer lending in Russia. The study is based on the analysis of data, statistics and economic indicators, as well as consideration of current trends in the banking sector and consumer behavior. The author of the article analyzes the influence of economic factors, regulation, changes in consumer preferences, and other key aspects on the dynamics of consumer lending in the country.

In the modern world, sustainable consumption is developing as one of the most influential areas in economic theory and practice. The concept of sustainability is gaining particular importance for economies and their future development. In sustainability research, the focus on food consumption, and specifically fruit consumption, is a relatively new approach. The main objective of the present study is to systematize and interpret the basic determinants of the behavior of consumers of food products, as well as of fruits, through the focus of the fundamental principle of sustainability and on this basis to deduce the manifesting dependencies. To clarify the determinants, it helps to consider various economic concepts - Engel's, Keynesian theory and other empirical works in the studied subject. Respondents of the study are households from Bulgaria. The analysis of fruit consumption in the context of sustainability is based on data on the budgets of Bulgarian households in the period 2009-2021, released by the National Statistical Institute. The specified twelve-year period ensures the tracking of the dynamics and trends in the studied economic phenomenon. The formulated hypothesis is tested using the method of linear regression and correlation using the statistical software - IBM SPSS Statistics. The results help reveal the relationships between household fruit expenditure and their income as economic determinants. On the basis of the obtained results, the importance of the change to sustainable patterns of consumption, specifically of fruits, for the economic well-being of households and for the future development of the economy is assessed.

This paper is evaluating the impact of uncertainty shocks that are affecting the household behavior in the European Union countries by employing a quantitative approach. By employing a Bayesian VAR model, this paper provides an answer on the importance of the uncertainty shocks on the household consumption choices by using impulse response functions and variance decompositions statistics. The relevance of the study is a major one as it quantifies the impact of the uncertainty pressure on choices consumers make during uncertain times such as the great recession or covid-19 health crisis. Given the current increased focus of the literature on behavioral economics and consumer welfare this paper will provide an answer on consumption by sector increase and decrease as a result of uncertainty shocks.

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) technology is receiving attention as an approach to reducing U.S. dependency on foreign oil and emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) from the transportation sector. Because plug-in vehicles require large batteries for energy storage, battery weight can have a significant impact on vehicle performance: Additional storage capacity increases the range that a PHEV can travel on electricity from the grid; however, the associated increased weight causes reduced efficiency in transforming electricity and gasoline into miles driven. We examine vehicle simulation models for PHEVs and identify trends in fuel consumption, operating costs, and GHG emissions as battery capacity is increased. We find that PHEVs with large battery capacity consume less gasoline than small capacity PHEVs when charged every 200 miles or less. When charged frequently, small capacity PHEVs are less expensive to operate and release fewer GHGs, but medium and large capacity PHEVs are more efficient for drivers that charge every 25–100 miles. While statistics on average commute length suggest that frequent charges are possible, answering the question of which PHEV designs will best help to achieve national goals will require a realistic understanding of likely consumer driving and charging behavior as well as future trends in electricity generation.

Social marketing is often used in public administration and in the activities of NGOs, for example in health care, traffic safety, anti-corruption etc, but there is a lack of case studies on the design of these campaigns, the methods used, as well as the results achieved. However, public administration and NGOs are not the only ones that can use social marketing to change the social order, since in business too, public opinion and action often affect and influence companies in various sectors that work in the public interest or manage state and municipal property. The aim of the study is to develop a concept for the implementation of social marketing campaigns, based on theoretical knowledge about social marketing and empirical data analysis. In order to achieve the objective of the study, the monographic method, the document analysis, the secondary data analysis, the contextual analysis and the quantitative data analysis to find out consumers' views on social marketing and what tools would encourage behaviour change. Based on the findings of the study, a concept was developed for the future implementation of social marketing campaigns. Findings. It was concluded that educational/informative materials, real experience stories, statistics and facts, increasing penalties and legal liability, as well as the introduction of new solutions, such as the deposit system for new groups of consumer goods, contribute to a change in social behavior. Company "Rigas mezi" needs to focus on reducing pollution, preserving and enhancing natural values and reducing forest fires. Based on the theoretical and practical research, the authors developed a social marketing impact process, which is presented as a theoretical social marketing impact scheme.

In the United States (U.S.), access to legal cannabis through regulated state markets is rapidly changing, but little is known about consumer behavior when states with legal access choose to restrict access due to public health or safety concerns. This exploratory study examines the Massachusetts recreational (“adult-use”) and medical cannabis markets before and during two major public health crises that changed consumer access: (1) the e-cigarette or vaping use-associated lung injury (“EVALI”) crisis and state requirements to stop vape product sales in the adult-use and medical markets from 9/24/2019-12/12/2019, and (2) the SARS-CoV-2 (“COVID-19”) crisis and state emergency order that temporarily halted all adult-use retail sales but not medical sales from 3/24/20-5/24/20. We used the Massachusetts seed-to-sale tracking system (i.e., Metrc) to run descriptive statistics examining medical sales for patients and all adult-use sales across the largest product segments: buds, vapes and concentrate (each), edibles, and other categories (i.e., prerolls, concentrate, infused nonedible, infused beverage, kief, shake/trim, suppository) spanning May 2019-December 2020. To account for classification changes in the dataset, sales for vape products and concentrate (each) product were summed into a single category. We further examined trends in registered patients and “per patient” spending across cannabis product types (i.e., monthly sales per product category divided by monthly registered patients). Our findings showed a decline in market share for the vape and concentrate (each) product category in the adult and medical markets during the EVALI crisis when sales were halted, while buds, followed by edibles and other products increased in market share during this time. After vape products could be sold again, the market share of vape and concentrate (each) products rose but did not return to pre-EVALI levels. We did not observe an overall shift in market share by product type in the medical market during the COVID-19 adult-use store closure. Although gross medical sales trended upward, increases in the medical market did not account for the vast majority of prior spending in the adult-use market during the market’s closure. The number of registered active patients also trended upward. From December 2020 to December 2021, there was a 56% increase in patients (59,173 to 92,148 patients), and we observed a marked increase following the temporary halt of adult-use sales. During and prior to halted adult-use sales, we observed an increase in per patient monthly spending for cannabis products. This was particularly salient for buds. Per patient monthly spending for buds peaked in May 2020. Study limitations include a single state sample and that this study does not examine changes to the illicit market. We cannot make any causal claims and any long-term implications of trends observed during the EVALI and COVID-19 crises are unknown. Our exploratory findings suggest that there are a range of consumer responses in the legal market in response to temporary loss of access, including evidence of consumers changing legal markets (i.e., adult-use to medical) and changing product types. More research is needed, particularly to understand potential concurrent changes in the illicit market during these crises.

Nowadays, Android is one of the most popular operating systems for mobile devices. Therefore, an increasing number of exploits and malicious applications for Android are developed by attackers. Many Android applications have malicious or abnormal behaviour: stealing private information, subscribing to unwanted paid services, consuming a large amount of resources on the device and displaying unwanted advertisements. Students learning security need to understand the behaviour of such applications. In this paper, we propose an infrastructure for collecting information pertaining to application behaviour at runtime and exposing the malicious and atypical actions performed by Android applications. The purpose of this infrastructure is to provide a meaningful learning experience to students, as they study malicious applications. The infrastructure includes collectors at every level of the operating system and the behaviour information includes: the consumed resources (CPU, memory), the exchanged messages (SMSs, phone calls, packets), the state changes of the communication channels (WiFi, 3G, Bluetooth, NFC). Behaviour information is sent periodically from the collectors to a native application and can be visualised through a Graphical User Interface, directly on the mobile device. Students are allowed select any process in the system and investigate its behaviour in real time. They also can extract the behaviour information from the mobile device in order to perform statistical analysis on the data. Students are able compare the collected data for legitimate and malicious/abnormal applications and identify the malicious behaviour patterns. These patterns can be used to discover new malware, that is not yet detected by commercial antivirus solutions. The learning experience provided by our infrastructure is essential for developing practical security skills.

Attention to safety and health are of ever-increasing priority to industrial organizations. Good Safety is demanded by stockholders, employees, and the community while increasing injury costs provide additional motivation for safety and health excellence. Safety has always been a strong corporate value of DuPont and a vital part of its culture. As a result, DuPont has become a benchmark in safety and health performance. Since 1990, DuPont has re-engineered itself to meet global competition and address future vision. In the new re-engineered organizational structures, DuPont has also had to re-engineer its safety management systems. A special Discovery Team was chartered by DuPont senior management to determine the “best practices’ for safety and health being used in DuPont best-performing sites. A summary of the findings is presented, and five of the practices are discussed. Excellence in safety and health management is more important today than ever. Public awareness, federal and state regulations, and enlightened management have resulted in a widespread conviction that all employees have the right to work in an environment that will not adversely affect their safety and health. In DuPont, we believe that excellence in safety and health is necessary to achieve global competitiveness, maintain employee loyalty, and be an accepted member of the communities in which we make, handle, use, and transport products. Safety can also be the “catalyst” to achieving excellence in other important business parameters. The organizational and communication skills developed by management, individuals, and teams in safety can be directly applied to other company initiatives. As we look into the 21st Century, we must also recognize that new organizational structures (flatter with empowered teams) will require new safety management techniques and systems in order to maintain continuous improvement in safety performance. Injury costs, which have risen dramatically in the past twenty years, provide another incentive for safety and health excellence. Shown in the Figure 1, injury costs have increased even after correcting for inflation. Many companies have found these costs to be an “invisible drain” on earnings and profitability. In some organizations, significant initiatives have been launched to better manage the workers’ compensation systems. We have found that the ultimate solution is to prevent injuries and incidents before they occur. A globally-respected company, DuPont is regarded as a well-managed, extremely ethical firm that is the benchmark in industrial safety performance. Like many other companies, DuPont has re-engineered itself and downsized its operations since 1985. Through these changes, we have maintained dedication to our principles and developed new techniques to manage in these organizational environments. As a diversified company, our operations involve chemical process facilities, production line operations, field activities, and sales and distribution of materials. Our customer base is almost entirely industrial and yet we still maintain a high level of consumer awareness and positive perception. The DuPont concern for safety dates back to the early 1800s and the first days of the company. In 1802 E.I. DuPont, a Frenchman, began manufacturing quality grade explosives to fill America’s growing need to build roads, clear fields, increase mining output, and protect its recently won independence. Because explosives production is such a hazardous industry, DuPont recognized and accepted the need for an effective safety effort. The building walls of the first powder mill near Wilmington, Delaware, were built three stones thick on three sides. The back remained open to the Brandywine River to direct any explosive forces away from other buildings and employees. To set the safety example, DuPont also built his home and the homes of his managers next to the powder yard. An effective safety program was a necessity. It represented the first defense against instant corporate liquidation. Safety needs more than a well-designed plant, however. In 1811, work rules were posted in the mill to guide employee work habits. Though not nearly as sophisticated as the safety standards of today, they did introduce an important basic concept — that safety must be a line management responsibility. Later, DuPont introduced an employee health program and hired a company doctor. An early step taken in 1912 was the keeping of safety statistics, approximately 60 years before the federal requirement to do so. We had a visible measure of our safety performance and were determined that we were going to improve it. When the nation entered World War I, the DuPont Company supplied 40 percent of the explosives used by the Allied Forces, more than 1.5 billion pounds. To accomplish this task, over 30,000 new employees were hired and trained to build and operate many plants. Among these facilities was the largest smokeless powder plant the world had ever seen. The new plant was producing granulated powder in a record 116 days after ground breaking. The trends on the safety performance chart reflect the problems that a large new work force can pose until the employees fully accept the company’s safety philosophy. The first arrow reflects the World War I scale-up, and the second arrow represents rapid diversification into new businesses during the 1920s. These instances of significant deterioration in safety performance reinforced DuPont’s commitment to reduce the unsafe acts that were causing 96 percent of our injuries. Only 4 percent of injuries result from unsafe conditions or equipment — the remainder result from the unsafe acts of people. This is an important concept if we are to focus our attention on reducing injuries and incidents within the work environment. World War II brought on a similar set of demands. The story was similar to World War I but the numbers were even more astonishing: one billion dollars in capital expenditures, 54 new plants, 75,000 additional employees, and 4.5 billion pounds of explosives produced — 20 percent of the volume used by the Allied Forces. Yet, the performance during the war years showed no significant deviation from the pre-war years. In 1941, the DuPont Company was 10 times safer than all industry and 9 times safer than the Chemical Industry. Management and the line organization were finally working as they should to control the real causes of injuries. Today, DuPont is about 50 times safer than US industrial safety performance averages. Comparing performance to other industries, it is interesting to note that seemingly “hazard-free” industries seem to have extraordinarily high injury rates. This is because, as DuPont has found out, performance is a function of injury prevention and safety management systems, not hazard exposure. Our success in safety results from a sound safety management philosophy. Each of the 125 DuPont facilities is responsible for its own safety program, progress, and performance. However, management at each of these facilities approaches safety from the same fundamental and sound philosophy. This philosophy can be expressed in eleven straightforward principles. The first principle is that all injuries can be prevented. That statement may seem a bit optimistic. In fact, we believe that this is a realistic goal and not just a theoretical objective. Our safety performance proves that the objective is achievable. We have plants with over 2,000 employees that have operated for over 10 years without a lost time injury. As injuries and incidents are investigated, we can always identify actions that could have prevented that incident. If we manage safety in a proactive — rather than reactive — manner, we will eliminate injuries by reducing the acts and conditions that cause them. The second principle is that management, which includes all levels through first-line supervisors, is responsible and accountable for preventing injuries. Only when senior management exerts sustained and consistent leadership in establishing safety goals, demanding accountability for safety performance and providing the necessary resources, can a safety program be effective in an industrial environment. The third principle states that, while recognizing management responsibility, it takes the combined energy of the entire organization to reach sustained, continuous improvement in safety and health performance. Creating an environment in which employees feel ownership for the safety effort and make significant contributions is an essential task for management, and one that needs deliberate and ongoing attention. The fourth principle is a corollary to the first principle that all injuries are preventable. It holds that all operating exposures that may result in injuries or illnesses can be controlled. No matter what the exposure, an effective safeguard can be provided. It is preferable, of course, to eliminate sources of danger, but when this is not reasonable or practical, supervision must specify measures such as special training, safety devices, and protective clothing. Our fifth safety principle states that safety is a condition of employment. Conscientious assumption of safety responsibility is required from all employees from their first day on the job. Each employee must be convinced that he or she has a responsibility for working safely. The sixth safety principle: Employees must be trained to work safely. We have found that an awareness for safety does not come naturally and that people have to be trained to work safely. With effective training programs to teach, motivate, and sustain safety knowledge, all injuries and illnesses can be eliminated. Our seventh principle holds that management must audit performance on the workplace to assess safety program success. Comprehensive inspections of both facilities and programs not only confirm their effectiveness in achieving the desired performance, but also detect specific problems and help to identify weaknesses in the safety effort. The Company’s eighth principle states that all deficiencies must be corrected promptly. Without prompt action, risk of injuries will increase and, even more important, the credibility of management’s safety efforts will suffer. Our ninth principle is a statement that off-the-job safety is an important part of the overall safety effort. We do not expect nor want employees to “turn safety on” as they come to work and “turn it off” when they go home. The company safety culture truly becomes of the individual employee’s way of thinking. The tenth principle recognizes that it’s good business to prevent injuries. Injuries cost money. However, hidden or indirect costs usually exceed the direct cost. Our last principle is the most important. Safety must be integrated as core business and personal value. There are two reasons for this. First, we’ve learned from almost 200 years of experience that 96 percent of safety incidents are directly caused by the action of people, not by faulty equipment or inadequate safety standards. But conversely, it is our people who provide the solutions to our safety problems. They are the one essential ingredient in the recipe for a safe workplace. Intelligent, trained, and motivated employees are any company’s greatest resource. Our success in safety depends upon the men and women in our plants following procedures, participating actively in training, and identifying and alerting each other and management to potential hazards. By demonstrating a real concern for each employee, management helps establish a mutual respect, and the foundation is laid for a solid safety program. This, of course, is also the foundation for good employee relations. An important lesson learned in DuPont is that the majority of injuries are caused by unsafe acts and at-risk behaviors rather than unsafe equipment or conditions. In fact, in several DuPont studies it was estimated that 96 percent of injuries are caused by unsafe acts. This was particularly revealing when considering safety audits — if audits were only focused on conditions, at best we could only prevent four percent of our injuries. By establishing management systems for safety auditing that focus on people, including audit training, techniques, and plans, all incidents are preventable. Of course, employee contribution and involvement in auditing leads to sustainability through stakeholdership in the system. Management safety audits help to make manage the “behavioral balance.” Every job and task performed at a site can do be done at-risk or safely. The essence of a good safety system ensures that safe behavior is the accepted norm amongst employees, and that it is the expected and respected way of doing things. Shifting employees norms contributes mightily to changing culture. The management safety audit provides a way to quantify these norms. DuPont safety performance has continued to improve since we began keeping records in 1911 until about 1990. In the 1990–1994 time frame, performance deteriorated as shown in the chart that follows: This increase in injuries caused great concern to senior DuPont management as well as employees. It occurred while the corporation was undergoing changes in organization. In order to sustain our technological, competitive, and business leadership positions, DuPont began re-engineering itself beginning in about 1990. New streamlined organizational structures and collaborative work processes eliminated many positions and levels of management and supervision. The total employment of the company was reduced about 25 percent during these four years. In our traditional hierarchical organization structures, every level of supervision and management knew exactly what they were expected to do with safety, and all had important roles. As many of these levels were eliminated, new systems needed to be identified for these new organizations. In early 1995, Edgar S. Woolard, DuPont Chairman, chartered a Corporate Discovery Team to look for processes that will put DuPont on a consistent path toward a goal of zero injuries and occupational illnesses. The cross-functional team used a mode of “discovery through learning” from as many DuPont employees and sites around the world. The Discovery Team fostered the rapid sharing and leveraging of “best practices” and innovative approaches being pursued at DuPont’s plants, field sites, laboratories, and office locations. In short, the team examined the company’s current state, described the future state, identified barriers between the two, and recommended key ways to overcome these barriers. After reporting back to executive management in April, 1995, the Discovery Team was realigned to help organizations implement their recommendations. The Discovery Team reconfirmed key values in DuPont — in short, that all injuries, incidents, and occupational illnesses are preventable and that safety is a source of competitive advantage. As such, the steps taken to improve safety performance also improve overall competitiveness. Senior management made this belief clear: “We will strengthen our business by making safety excellence an integral part of all business activities.” One of the key findings of the Discovery Team was the identification of the best practices used within the company, which are listed below: ▪ Felt Leadership – Management Commitment ▪ Business Integration ▪ Responsibility and Accountability ▪ Individual/Team Involvement and Influence ▪ Contractor Safety ▪ Metrics and Measurements ▪ Communications ▪ Rewards and Recognition ▪ Caring Interdependent Culture; Team-Based Work Process and Systems ▪ Performance Standards and Operating Discipline ▪ Training/Capability ▪ Technology ▪ Safety and Health Resources ▪ Management and Team Audits ▪ Deviation Investigation ▪ Risk Management and Emergency Response ▪ Process Safety ▪ Off-the-Job Safety and Health Education Attention to each of these best practices is essential to achieve sustained improvements in safety and health. The Discovery Implementation in conjunction with DuPont Safety and Environmental Management Services has developed a Safety Self-Assessment around these systems. In this presentation, we will discuss a few of these practices and learn what they mean. Paper published with permission.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.