Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Competition, International – Public opinion »

The battle for public opinion in the Islamic world is an ongoing priority for U.S. diplomacy. The current debate over why many Muslims hold anti-American views revolves around whether they dislike fundamental aspects of American culture and government, or what Americans do in international affairs. We argue, instead, that Muslim anti-Americanism is predominantly a domestic, elite-led phenomenon that intensifies when there is greater competition between Islamist and secular-nationalist political factions within a country. Although more observant Muslims tend to be more anti-American, paradoxically the most anti-American countries are those in which Muslim populations are less religious overall, and thus more divided on the religious–secular issue dimension. We provide case study evidence consistent with this explanation, as well as a multilevel statistical analysis of public opinion data from nearly 13,000 Muslim respondents in 21 countries.

Between 1927 and 1932, the policy-making elite of the British Government was presented with a difficult problem. Postwar attempts to explain the origins of the First World War had resulted in the belief that arms production and competition had largely been responsible for instigating the conflict. Such a view became accepted by the general public in Britain. Specifically, the pre-1914 naval competition between Germany and Great Britain was thought to be one of the key events that had contributed directly to the outbreak of the war. Such fears concerning naval armaments were touted by peace activists as having been instrumental in assuring the success of the Washington Naval Conference of 1921–22. Yet, this simple explanation does not adequately illustrate the intricate and complex connections that were made between naval armaments and other issues related to Britain's international affairs. Rather than the simple possession of naval arms, British leaders feared that other pressing issues would lead to a re-occurrence of hostilities. Questions concerning world oil supplies, reparations, war debts, tariffs, the value of the pound and the gold standard, and, particularly, belligerent rights and freedom of the seas, were all viewed as having the potential to generate another international conflict. Thus, the existence of armaments themselves was not Britain's primary security problem from the perspective of the policy-making elite. Rather, their common cause was how to protect Britain's position as the center of a world economic system. Safeguarding Britain's own stable position as a focus that provided leadership for the rest of the world was seen as the logical step to ensuring global stability. In order to create an atmosphere of goodwill and security that was necessary to prevent volatile issues from exploding, the British governing elite treated naval arms talks and naval armaments as a form of currency in the realm of international relations.

AbstractUnder pressure to choose between the U.S. and China, Southeast Asian countries have adopted a hedging strategy: deepening economic relations with China while strengthening security cooperation with the U.S. How does the region's public view this strategy? With tensions rising in South China Sea territorial disputes, are more nationalistic individuals more likely to oppose hedging? Using an original public opinion survey conducted in the Philippines, we find that while an overwhelming majority of respondents were concerned about the territorial disputes, more nationalistic Filipinos were no more concerned than less nationalistic ones. Further, more nationalistic Filipinos were more likely to view economic relations with China as important for the Philippines and to approve of Duterte's China policy, which follows the logic of hedging. These surprising findings suggest that under the shadow of great-power competition, the link between domestic politics and foreign policy is nuanced in the Philippines, and Southeast Asia in general.

Globalization and increased free trade between continents have led to the need to adapt port management to changes and opportunities that occurred. Ports under public administration have had to identify strategies to deal with more aggressive regional or international competition. The opinion of governments of developing countries about improving port performance is more involvement of the private sector. Therefore, countries have understood the need to change over ports administration system from the "public interest" into "public/private interest" category. This paper attempts to highlight the importance of structural reform in the ports due to national markets open up to international trade and the need to integrate the port into the local or regional logistic chain.

Germany is widely seen as a “dualized” economy driven by a powerful and stable “insider” coalition in the manufacturing sectors. In this article, that picture is challenged. An examination of the political economy of the outsider-friendly 2014 Minimum Wage Act, using public opinion data, document analysis, and qualitative interviews, shows how earlier dualizing reforms led to unintended negative feedback effects: First, public opinion reacted negatively to increasing inequality in the years preceding the introduction of the minimum wage. Second, a remarkable shift is found among trade unions toward support of a minimum wage, even in manufacturing. Although the threat of low-wage competition and flexibilization did play a role, trade union solidarity was at least as important. Those endogenous dynamics came together in a self-undermining process unfolding over a relatively short period of time. Potential alternative explanations are explored, including classical partisan politics, party competition, and employer preferences.

Cultural changes run through the historical development of human society. Only by having an insight into the cultural changes in the global information age can we grasp the development and future of contemporary culture. Contemporary culture has two major trends of globalization and informatization. This paper focuses on the background of informatization of contemporary culture. Currently, informatization associated with globalization has strengthened the interdependence of national economies, changed the international environment for their development, and enriched their ways of interaction. Under the unprecedented open international environment, the development of any country can no longer be carried out in a closed state. The influence of international public opinion on national development is becoming increasingly important. As a big developing country, China has to communicate with other countries in an all-round and multi-channel way so that the world can better understand China and China can create a good international public opinion environment for its own development. This paper will spread out expositions for three aspects: the informatization tide promoted the rise of the information culture industry; the informatization tide intensifies the cultural interaction and competition among countries; the informatization tide enriches cultural communication among countries.

Cultural changes run through the historical development of human society. Only by having an insight into the cultural changes in the global information age can we grasp the development and future of contemporary culture. Contemporary culture has two major trends of globalization and informatization. This paper focuses on the background of informatization of contemporary culture. Currently, informatization associated with globalization has strengthened the interdependence of national economies, changed the international environment for their development, and enriched their ways of interaction. Under the unprecedented open international environment, the development of any country can no longer be carried out in a closed state. The influence of international public opinion on national development is becoming increasingly important. As a big developing country, China has to communicate with other countries in an all-round and multi-channel way so that the world can better understand China and China can create a good international public opinion environment for its own development. This paper will spread out expositions for three aspects: the informatization tide promoted the rise of the information culture industry; the informatization tide intensifies the cultural interaction and competition among countries; the informatization tide enriches cultural communication among countries.

Students of race and politics in the U.S. have long asserted a relationship between the racial composition and public policies of states. A related but distinct line of research demonstrates a strong connection between white attitudes about the perceived recipients of social welfare spending—blacks and members of other minority groups—and support for these programs. This article bridges these lines of scholarship by asking how racial diversity shapes aggregate attitudes about minorities in the American states and how these opinions in turn influence welfare spending. Using public opinion data from the General Social Survey ( 1974–96), I find that diversity has a direct influence on welfare policy in the states, as well as an indirect influence through shaping majority-group racial attitudes. Diversity and racial attitudes are found to have these effects even when controlling for factors traditionally used to explain variation in state spending levels, such as party competition, lower class mobilization, ideology, and state capacity.

Malaysia is developing medical tourism as a tourism industry aimed at foreign tourists. For this tourism industry, Malaysia makes Indonesia as one of the tourist targets that are expected to bring foreign exchange for the country. Data shows that Indonesians are the largest contributor of tourists visiting Malaysia for treatment. This shows the trust of Indonesian citizens in the health services of the neighboring country. The concept of tourism communication mentions that to achieve the success of medical tourism at least several things are needed that can be fulfilled, namely: competitive prices, available human resources for medical services, the existence of research and development of medical capabilities, infrastructure development, state institutions that support medical tourism, a supportive market economy, the ability to bring together present-day medical technology with traditional, and tourist attractions. Things that are built through tourism communication itself are expected to produce a public opinion about tourist destinations, where this public opinion is the first step in the formation of a country’s brand. This study uses a survey method, which involves about 96 respondents who are on the islands of Sumatra and Java. Use descriptive analysis techniques to explore results. The results obtained by not all components in tourism communication for medical tourism are seen as influencing Indonesian opinion on Malaysian medical tourism. The strangest thing that comes to the view of the Indonesian people is Malaysia’s credibility on health services, the credibility of doctors, the equipment used, the ability to convey information, adequate infrastructure, and the beauty of tourist destinations. Most opinions state that Malaysia can show as a country that successfully develops tourist confidence in the health services offered. The implication of this research is that the opinion of foreign nationals in a country greatly affects the image of that country in the international world.

The purpose of the work is to identify the connotation, features of computational propaganda and reveal how computational propaganda uses new technologies to manipulate public opinion. The study’s hypothesis is the assumption that computational propaganda, as a new type of propaganda and manipulation of public opinion spawned in the era of artificial intelligence, stealthily and massively steers public opinion using new technologies to influence political and social processes. With the scientific methods such as event analysis and case-study, the work concludes that more and more governments, political parties, and strategic communication companies use social media as the digital platform, Internet bots as the automated executors, and algorithms as the computational technical guarantee, by participating in, guiding and creating controversial topics and events, to manipulate public opinion and win international competitions, policy debates, elections, etc.

This thesis explores public attitudes towards international development cooperation. Noting the lack of previous academic treatment of this particular topic, it includes an overview of available polling data on relevant questions, followed by a review of more general literature pertaining to public opinion towards foreign policy, as a macro-level concept. Finding the macro-level perspective insufficient, the thesis then explores one particular model for understanding public opinion on the individual level. The final chapter discusses in some detail how one particular form of development assistance---child sponsorship---might influence public opinion. Claims that child sponsorship necessarily has detrimental effects on public opinion are found to have little foundation in either empirical studies or relevant theory. Conclusive statements concerning any effect child sponsorship might have on public opinion are not made, but the thesis does argue that public opinion towards development assistance can, under certain conditions, be considered reasonable.

The use of experimental methods in International Relations (I.R.) studies continues to be relatively unpopular, and especially so among the International Political Economy (IPE) research fraternity in Brazil. Notwithstanding, this paper is the product of an experimental survey administered among the undergraduate students\' population at the University of São Paulo in April 2014, in which the hypothesis that cultural proximity mattered to public opinion about trade partners was investigated and subsequently validated. In pretreatment tests, language, religion and social norms and values were identified as proxies for cultural proximity. These were incorporated into four treatment vignettes that described a potential trade partnership in terms of its economic gains as well as the cultural (dis)similarity of the partner country. With the addition of a control condition - having no economic or cultural information - the five vignettes were embedded into questionnaires administered to 503 students across 7 faculties. Treatment effects under all conditions confirmed that people\'s decisions were affected by the cultural indicators. Their contradictory response to descriptive questions however, implies that though their actions may be conducive with culturally influence, people\'s declarations will tend to suggest otherwise.
A utilização de métodos experimentais em estudos de Relações Internacionais (RI) continua sendo relativamente incomum e, particularmente, entre os pesquisadores de Economia Política Internacional (EPI) no Brasil. Não obstante, este trabalho foi o resultado de um survey experimental aplicado entre os alunos de graduação da Universidade de São Paulo em abril de 2014, cuja hipótese de que a proximidade cultural importava para a opinião pública no que tange os parceiros comerciais foi investigada e, posteriormente validada. Nos testes de pré-tratamento, a língua, a religião e as normas e os valores sociais foram identificados como os indicadores para a proximidade cultural. Estes indicadores foram incorporados em quatro vinhetas de tratamento, em que uma parceria comercial foi descrita em termos dos ganhos econômicos, bem como a (não) similaridade cultural do país parceiro. Com a adição de uma condição de controle - em que não havia nenhuma informação econômica ou cultural - as cinco vinhetas foram incluídas em questionários aplicados a 503 estudantes entre 7 faculdades. Havia efeitos do tratamento em todas as condições e, portanto, foi possível confirmar que as decisões das pessoas foram afetadas pelos indicadores culturais. No entanto, as respostas contraditórias às questões descritivas sugeriram que por mais que as ações do público tendem a demonstrar coerência com a influência de atributos culturais, suas declarações verbais tendem a apontar ao contrário.

The objectives of this dissertation were to: (1) discover whether commenters and non-commenters on an international marketing questionnaire differ based on sociodemographic, nationality, and personality characteristics; (2) determine whether commenters with greater life satisfaction are more likely to provide positive comments; (3) determine whether commenters differ in response styles due to their national background; and (4) discover whether commenters differ (based on sociodemo-graphic, nationality, and personality characteristics) in their propensity to comment on the design rather than on other questionnaire issues. An exploratory design was used to satisfy these objectives.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Cincinnati, 2009.
Advisor: Barbara A. Bardes. Title from electronic thesis title page (viewed July 29, 2009). Keywords: News Frames; media; president; public opinion. Includes abstract. Includes bibliographical references.

This study attempted to determine what specific course criteria pubic relations educators believed to be most important in an international public relations course. The researcher provided fifty-seven public relations educators with fifty statements covering potential areas an international public relations course could include. The statements covered the areas of business, media, culture, government and miscellaneous. Each public relations educators was asked to sort the statements according to how much he or she agreed or disagreed with them.The QMETHOD program was used to determine two factor groups from the nineteen responses received. The factor groups, Type I and Type II. Type I consisted of twelve public relations educators and Type II consisted of seven public relations educators.Public relations educators in both groups agreed that an international public relations course should teach students to follow global current events and public relations issues, should cover various countries and their cultural taboos, and teach students to identify social trends abroad.The researcher expected public relations educators to support an international public relations course structure which favored the study of a broad range of international public relations at both the undergraduate and graduate levels, and to achieve a consensus on statements relating to cultural sensitivity training. For the most part, the researcher's expectations were met. However, more technical skills issues (i.e., fundamental, pragmatic public relations knowledge needed to execute public relations plans) were raised than expected, and educators' views on the level at which international public relations should be taught differed from what the researcher had anticipated.
Department of Journalism

Thesis (MA (Political Science))--Stellenbosch University, 2010.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study explores public opinion on land reform in South Africa using data gathered by Ipsos-Markinor in nationally representative public opinion surveys conducted in 2004 and 2007, and by an elite survey conducted by Centre for International and Comparative Politics in 2007. This study explores whether public opinion on land reform reveals distinct trends that correlate with the selected socio-demographic variables of race, language, party affiliation and social status. It is hypothesised that there is an identifiable correlation between these independent variables and the opinions of respondents on land reform, with specific groups tending to support land reform whilst other groups tend to reject it. The data analyses yielded results that highlight distinct trends in public opinion on land reform. Responses are clustered around specific characteristics of the independent variables and point towards distinct groups having specific views on land reform. From this set of findings it is inferred that public opinion on land reform illustrates that certain groups of South Africans have contrasting views of how the rule of law and transformation should find expression in a democratic society. These fundamentally differing opinions on key elements of democracy illustrate that South Africans hold diverging opinions of what constitutes democracy, through adherence to either the liberal or the liberationist model of democracy. These models were previously identified as two distinct and diverging interpretations of democracy in South Africa and were labelled as such. These two models uphold sharply divergent normative prescriptions of democracy, as well as contrasting prescriptions for various policies of democratic consolidation, including that of land reform.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Openbare mening oor grondhervorming in Suid-Afrika word in hierdie studie ondersoek. Die ondersoek maak gebruik van data ingewin deur Ipsos-Markinor in nasionaal verteenwoordigende openbare meningsopnames uitgevoer in 2004 en 2007, asook ‘n elite opname wat in 2007 uitgevoer is deur die Sentrum vir Internationale en Vergelykende Politiek (CICP). Hierdie studie ondersoek die moontlikheid dat openbare mening ten opsigte van grondhervorming met geselekteerde sosio-demografiese veranderlikes (ras, taal, politieke affiliasie en sosiale status) korreleer. Die hipotese is dat daar ‘n identifiseerbare korrelasie is tussen hierdie onafhanklike veranderlikes en die menings van die respondente ten opsigte van grondhervorming en dat daar spesifieke groepe is wat grondhervorming ondersteun en ander nie. Analise van die data toon duidelike tendense in openbare mening oor die kwessie van grondhervorming. Menings korreleer wel met die onafhanklike veranderlikes en wys daarop dat bepaalde sosiale groepe uiteenlopende standpunte het oor grondhervorming. Uit hierdie stel bevindinge maak die navorser die afleiding dat daar, binne die Suid- Afrikaanse bevolking, groepe is met uiteenlopende menings oor hoe die oppergesag van die reg en transformasie binne ‘n demokrasie uitgeleef moet word. Hierdie fundamenteel kontrasterende menings ten opsigte van hierdie sleutelelemente van demokrasie, illustreer dat Suid-Afrikaners uiteenlopende menings oor demokrasie het in die vorm van ondersteuning van hetsy die liberale- of bevrydingsmodelle van demokrasie. Hierdie modelle is as twee duidelike en afsonderlike interpretasies van demokrasie voorgestel en beskryf. Hierdie twee modelle verteenwoordig skerp uiteenlopende normatiewe beskouinge oor demokrasie, en bied daarmee saam, botsende beleidsvoorskrifte aan vir demokratiese konsolidering, insluitende beleid oor grondhervorming.

AbstractIdentifying and describing attitudes to immigration, let alone explaining them and their effects, is not a simple matter. In this chapter, we first outline the major scholarly works explaining attitudes to immigration. We identify six broad theoretical categories: economic interests, socialisation, psychological explanations, cueing, contact and context, and finally 'attitudinal embeddedness'. For each of these we present the key findings and consider the strengths and shortcomings of the literature, where applicable. We also sketch out existing research on the politics of immigration and the effects of attitudes to immigration on democratic politics, which we categorise as research on policy responsiveness, effects on party family support (notably the radical right), party competition, and polarisation. We end by considering future avenues for research.

For the purpose of this work, 16-year-old students gave their opinions on the usefulness of physics formulas from the school curriculum. The average students regarded below 30% of the presented formulas as useful, whereas for winners of a physics competition it was over 60%. Using the SMI Hi-Speed1250 eyetracker, a relationship between 52 students' eye fixation times on 16 presented formulas and their opinion on the formulas' usefulness was designated. For the best students, the Pearson correlation coefficient was close to zero. For average students, it was 0.6. Key words: physics formulas, public schools, school curriculum.

In this paper we present a language independent system to model Opinion Target Extraction (OTE) as a sequence labelling task. The system consists of a combination of clustering features implemented on top of a simple set of shallow local features. Experiments on the well known Aspect Based Sentiment Analysis (ABSA) benchmarks show that our approach is very competitive across languages, obtaining, at the time of writing, best results for six languages in seven different datasets. Furthermore, the results provide further insights into the behaviour of clustering features for sequence labeling tasks. Finally, we also show that these results can be outperformed by recent advances in contextual word embeddings and the transformer architecture. The system and models generated in this work are available for public use and to facilitate reproducibility of results.

Turkish health care system is going on health care transitions nowadays. Fundamental role of government in providing, financing and managing public services, including health care are changed. Health care marketers insist that competition and aggressive management will raise health care productivity. Health economist suggests that health is a public service and has a value. The Health Care System in Turkey is financed by public funds, compulsory insurance premiums and delivered (90%) by The Ministry of Health (MoH) that also manages the system. For the sustainability of universal access to health care special insurance programs according the rule of political economy should be built. Poor and severe ill people who cannot work and elderly may not get access to public medical insurance. So, for contributing to the nationwide public health care system rich people could give some extra insurance premium and obtain additional private insurance as well. Referral chain might be established in the country in between primary, secondary and tertiary care.

Several national and international organizations publish long term studies of possible future evolutions of primary and final energy consumption, installed power generation, adoption of new energy technologies and greenhouse gas emissions, for example, in the form of ‘scenarios’. Which scenario or combination of scenarios will come true depends on many factors, not least the choice of technologies to be developed and the amount of resources put into the development of the chosen technologies. Power generation equipment manufacturers thus have a strong influence on how the future of the energy world will unfold, through their technological choices and the investments they make to develop the technologies. However their own future also depends on how external factors evolve, including, for example, public opinion, economics, population growth, competitor technologies etc., which are also considered in the aforementioned scenarios. In this paper a discussion is made of the aspects of scenarios described in the literature that are relevant for technology strategic management within the time scales usually considered by commercial organizations. As a result, two scenarios are proposed, based on those presented by the International Energy Agency and on data from other sources.

One of the critical aspects of athletes’ fitness for effective competitive performance is the development of special cognitive qualities, in particular attention deficits. The development and enhancement of attention is important for increasing the effectiveness of sporting activities, and above all as a tool for controlling what happens when playing sports. However, original techniques of attention improvement in children are, to date, insufficient. The age of 8-10 is known to be a sensitive period for attention development. In our opinion, these are all strong arguments for developing a comprehensive methodology for developing young badminton players’ attention. During the pedagogical experiment, standard tests were used: the application of Gorbov’s tables, ‘Pyramid-tunnel’, the application of a Correction table; pedagogical observation and mathematical processing of the results using Microsoft Office Excel 2007. The credibility of disparities was calculated against Student’s criteria at significance level р . 0.05. The main constituents of attention for being successful in badminton are the scope, capability for shifting and keeping focus. The proposed integrated technique of attention improvement in young badminton players at the age of 8-10 caused a substantial improvement of sports achievements in the test group compared to the reference group. This shows that our methodology has a positive trend in the development of attention functions and is effective for young athletes.

ABSTRACT The general goal of family and educational environment is to prepare the rising generation for public practice by gaining social experience and building a moral culture of behavior. Although they are different, both institutions are responsible for the upbringing of children. Part of the extracurricular work in physical education and sport are also sports activities organized and conducted by sports clubs in a certain type of sport. The article conducts a study on the impact of training and sports competition activities on the formation of morally responsible behavior in adolescent football players. Certain indicators are derived from each criterion being analyzed in order to determine the moral status of the contestants. The methods of pedagogical research discourse, inquiry, and expert evaluation, applied to two age groups (total respondents – 280 competitors, 22 coaches, 18 referees, and 4 football delegates) during the football championship 7 of the 2021/22 sports competition year in Stara Zagora region. The opinion of the coaches and delegates, the actions of the referees regarding disciplinary control, the behavior of the players before the start, during, and after the end of football matches, numbering 300, have been examined. The statistical methods for processing empirical data for the purpose of analyzing and presenting the results of the study are variational, cor-relational, comparative, and descriptive analyses, Van der Waerden test, and processing of textual information from matches played. The results obtained found positive and statistically analyzed changes in the behavior of the contestants according to the criteria and indicators studied and prove the formative impact of active sports activity on the moral culture of the personality. The inquiry analysis carried out by place of residence shows that the research effect on the behavior of contestants has greater values for those living in larger cities.

Abstract: The paper deals with Le Corbusier’s unbuilt project for Venice analyzing the meaning of the Civic Hospital within the cultural context between 1954, the year in which the new master plan started to take shape, and 1966, when an extraordinary ‘acqua alta’ put an end to city’s contemporary ambitions. In Venice’s quest for modernity, the master plan (1954-1962), the national competition for the San Giuliano district (1959), the national competition for the Hospital (1963) and the international one for the Tronchetto Island (1964-1965) represent key events in which conservatives and modernists found themselves face to face, and in relation to which Le Corbusier’s project has not yet been studied. Even though Le Corbusier’s Hospital was presented to the public opinion as a courageous and innovative project, this paper seeks to demonstrate that it was actually more in line with the conservative front because it brought back the “problem of Venice” to its insular dimension after more than a decade of attempts to solve it considering a wider regional frame. Resumen: El articulo trata sobre el proyecto, no cumplido, por Le Corbusier para Venecia incluyéndolo en el contexto cultural desarrollado entre el año 1954, en el que el nuevo master plan empezaba a coger forma, y el 1966, cuando una extraordinaria ‘acqua alta’ cortó los anhelos de modernidad del tiempo. Los acontecimientos clave de este periodo fueron: el master plan, el concurso nacional para el barrio de San Giuliano, el concurso nacional para el Hospital y el concurso internacional para la Isla de Tronchetto. Con respecto a estos el proyecto de Le Corbusier no había todavía estado analizado. El Hospital de Le Corbusier había estado presentado, en su tiempo, como un proyecto innovador. Lo que este articulo quiere demostrar es que, en realidad, representó una posición conservadora, pues volvió a llevar el problema de Venecia en sus medidas insulares después de mas diez años de intentos para solucionarlo a escala regional. Keywords: Venice; Civic Hospital; Le Corbusier; modernity; center and periphery. Palabras clave: Venice; Civic Hospital; Le Corbusier; modernidad; centro y periferia. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4995/LC2015.2015.1033

The Scenario Planning methodology has been applied by national and international institutions to long term studies of possible future evolutions of primary and final energy consumption, power generation capacity, emerging power generation technologies and green house gas emissions. Power generation equipment manufacturing companies are large enough to have considerable influence on how the future of the energy world will unfold, through their investment decisions in technology development. On the other hand, their future depends on external factors, out of their control, such as economics, demographics, public opinion, government policies, availability of natural resources and competitor technologies, not all of them explicitly considered in the scenarios published by those institutions. If robust technology development strategies are to be chosen, it is essential for a manufacturer, in the first place, to have as clear as possible an understanding not only of the published long-term scenarios, but also of the certainties and uncertainties regarding the driving factors that can significantly affect its future in particular. From this understanding, it should ideally create its own set of scenarios, against which it should test its strategies. In a previous paper the author discussed external factors and aspects of published scenarios, which are relevant for manufacturers within their usual planning time scales. From that discussion, two scenarios were proposed, as alternative ‘futures’ to the scenarios published by the International Energy Agency. The study was restricted to the OECD countries. In this paper, an extension of the previous work is presented, where some non-OECD countries are included and new external factors are considered, relevant in the context of these countries, which are China, Brazil and India.

Financial aspects, environmental concerns and non-favorable public opinion are strongly conditioning the deployment of new Nuclear Energy Systems across Europe. Nevertheless, new possibilities are emerging to render competitive electricity from Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) owing to two factors: the first one, which is the fast growth of High Voltage lines interconnecting the European countries’ national electrical grids, this process being triggered by huge increase of the installed intermittent renewable electricity sources (Wind and PV); and the second one, determined by the carbon-free constraints imposed on the base load electricity generation. The countries that due to public opinion pressure can’t build new NPPs on their territory may find it profitable to produce base load nuclear electricity abroad, even at long distances, in order to comply with the European dispositions on the limitation of the CO2 emissions. In this study the benefits from operating at multinational level with the deployment of a fleet of PWRs and subsequently, at a proper time, the one of Lead Fast Reactors (LFRs) are analyzed. The analysis performed involves Italy (a country with a current moratorium on nuclear power on spite that its biggest utility operates NPPs abroad), and the countries from South East and Central East Europe potentially looking for introduction or expansion of their nuclear power programmes. According to the predicted evolution of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) a forecast of the electricity consumption evolution for the present century is derived with the assumption that a certain fraction of it will be covered by nuclear electricity. In this context, evaluated are material balances for the front and the back end of nuclear fuel cycle associated with the installed nuclear capacity. A key element of the analysis is the particular type of LFR assumed in the scenario, characterized by having a fuel cycle where only fission products and the reprocessing losses are sent for disposition and natural or depleted uranium is added to fuel in each reprocessing cycle. Such LFR could be referred to as “adiabatic reactor”. Owing to introduction of such reactors a substantive reduction in uranium consumption and final disposal requirements can be achieved. Finally, the impacts of the LFR and the economy of scale in nuclear fuel cycle on the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) are being evaluated, for scaling up from a national to a multinational dimension, illustrating the benefits potentially achievable through cooperation among countries.

The article analyzes the branding process in the context of the development of individual units of journalism. After all, in the current conditions of competition in the Ukrainian information space, it is important to apply and master new technologies for the development and promotion of media resources in the media market. The history of branding is presented and it is noted that branding is the key to the success of each media brand in using the necessary tools and technologies, which involves the branding process. It is necessary to know and understand not only the basic laws of branding, but also its possibilities as the main tool of Internet marketing and offline or digital marketing. It is emphasized that the personal brand should be considered as a tool that builds a reputation and a positive image in the information space, as well as allows you to get a variety of resources only using professional skills and knowledge. It is important not only to form your own audience, but also to meet its needs. The GORDON online publication is analyzed, because this media resource is a consequence of the influence of personal brand on the audience and rapid development in the context of promoting a particular media resource, and the main ideologue and co-founder of this publication is an example of how personal brand can affect audiences. and promote the development of a specific business project. It is noted that the reputation of Dmitry Gordon and his odious figure became the basis for the success of this online publication, and attitudes toward him may be different and often ambiguous, but his person is known to everyone in the post-Soviet space. Modern information space needs scandalous and odious personalities, because they are able to arrange a show, give people emotions. The author points out that branding is an extremely promising technology not only in the context of promoting and promoting a particular media resource or personal brand, but also promotes the comprehensive development of journalists as public opinion experts and potential speakers at international conferences not only in journalism, but also internet marketing.

This rapid literature review collates available literature on the impact of the Ukraine crisis on international climate and environment commitments and considerations. The review draws on a range of sources predominantly blogs, opinion pieces and snap analyses. Given the nature of the conflict, its myriad impacts and uncertain end point, this report should be reviewed with a degree of caution. As the analysis draws heavily on opinion pieces and snap analyses, these will likely be outdated relatively quickly, and some assumptions shown to be flawed. Similarly, as events evolve, some analysis will become redundant. The impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on international climate and environment commitments and considerations will be complex and multifaceted and likely to evolve over time, key themes emerging in this report are as follows: Strategic cooperation or competition of states towards climate-related goals has long been anticipated to drive global political developments in the coming century. The nature of these volatile relationships has a determining factor on the scale, speed and final form of the transition to net zero, impacting politically, environmentally and economically. Climate change is not an isolated area of strategic concern; rather it should be understood as a pervasive condition with implications for most other areas of interstate competition and cooperation, from global trade to regulatory standards. In this sense, actors have climate-related incentives and imperatives to either cooperate or compete according to specific issue areas such as the economy or national security.

Democracy cannot prosper without democrats. The challenges facing the democratic transformation in Sudan are immense. This report signified the power-sharing intricacies that had been in place for over two years between the civilians and military. The 25 October coup put an end to that partnership. Nonetheless, people in Sudan are increasingly determined to regain their democratic transition. Building Democracy requires more than extending goodwill. It has always been said democracy cannot prosper without democrats. In context, International IDEA Sudan’s Programme saw the need to explore the perceptions of the main stakeholder in the democratic transition of Sudan, its people. The primary objective of this report is to study the perceptions among the Sudanese population of the motivations for and barriers to democratic participation. The study aims to generate a baseline of understanding to guide the design of further relevant civic education interventions. Methodologically, this was achieved using primary and secondary data sources: Primary data was collected through direct fieldwork using a structured questionnaire, interviews, focus group discussions and key informant interviews, as well as participatory observation. Secondary sources were collated in a desk review of existing academic and public opinion research, such as data from Afro-barometer and the International IDEA Global State of Democracy Indices.

In the spring of 2008, WIFO, KMU Forschung Austria, Prognos AG in Germany and convelop were jointly commissioned by the Austrian Federal Ministry for Transport, Innovation and Technology and the Austrian Federal Ministry of Economy, Family and Youth to perform a systems evaluation of the country's research promotion and funding activities. Based on their findings, six recommendations were developed for a change in Austrian RTDI policy as outlined below: 1. to move from a narrow to a broader approach in RTDI policy (links to education policy, consideration of the framework for innovation such as competition, international perspectives and mobility); 2. to move from an imitation to a frontrunner strategy (striving for excellence and market leadership in niche and high-quality segments, increasing market shares in advanced sectors and technology fields, and operating in segments of relevance for society); 3. to move from a fragmented approach to public intervention to a more coordinated and consistent approach(explicit economic goals, internal and external challenges and reasoning for public intervention); 4. to move from a multiplicity of narrowly defined funding programmes to a flexible, dynamic policy that uses a broader definition of its tasks and priorities (key technology and research segments as priority-action fields, adequate financing of clusters and centres of excellence); 5. to move from an unclear to a precisely defined allocation of responsibilities between ministries and other players in the field (high-ranking steering group at government level, monitoring by a Science, Research and Innovation Council); 6. to move from red-tape-bound to a modern management of public intervention (institutional separation between ministries formulating policies and agencies executing them, e.g., by "progressive autonomy").

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Evidence generated through responsible clinical research is one of the major pillars of the advancement of health care. In past decades there has been tremendous progress in the clinical research and development (R & D) environment globally, with increasing attention being paid to the health needs of people in resource-limited settings, where most of the preventable morbidity and mortality occurs. However, financial, social, ethical and regulatory challenges persist in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), and most clinical research today is still being conducted in and for high-income countries (HICs). The aim of this report is to provide balanced arguments to promote scientifically sound good quality clinical research in low-resource settings. The Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences (CIOMS) is an international, non-governmental, non-profit organization with the mission to advance public health through guidance on health research and policy including ethics, medical product development and safety. This report reflects the consensus opinion of the CIOMS Working Group on Clinical Research in Resource-Limited Settings, and was finalized in line with comments received during public consultation. The report is intended for governments and regulatory authorities, the research community and sponsors, as well as international organizations involved in funding or conducting research. The report provides a comprehensive set of recommendations to all major stakeholders. While it builds on the 2016 CIOMS International Ethical Guidelines for Health-related Research Involving Humans, it is not intended to supersede those guidelines.

Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.