Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Climates changes »
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Articles de revues sur le sujet "Climates changes"
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Lelono, Eko Budi, et Robert J. Morley. « Oligocene Climate Changes of Java ». Scientific Contributions Oil and Gas 34, no 3 (14 mars 2022) : 169–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.29017/scog.34.3.803.
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The study of palynology performed on the Oligocene marine sediment of the East Java Sea provides excellent recovery which allows the construction of palynological succession which applies regionally (Lelono et. al., 2011). In fact, this succession is characterized by assemblages that suggest climatic changes. These assemblages are divided into two major groups including mangrove and hinterland. The hinterland pollen group shows the most interesting succession, with elements on the one hand suggesting everwet climates (Dacrydium and Casuarina), and seasonal elements on the other (Gramineae, Schoutenia and Malvacipollis diversus). Mangrove pollen however suggests strong environmental control since mangrove pollen shows different abundance variations in the two wells. The age of the studied succession is independently defined using combined marine micro-fossils of foraminifer and nannoplankton which indicate Early to Late Oligocene. Although for most of the Oligocene in Southeast Asia, seasonal climate assemblages are the rule, this study interpretes the appearence of everwet climates. The Early Oligocene is characterized by common rain forest elements, suggesting an everwet rain forest climate at that time. The early part of the Late Oligocene, however, contains much reduced rain forest elements, and the presence of regular Gramineae pollen, suggesting a more seasonal climate, whereas for the latest Late Oligocene, rain forest (and peat swamp) elements return in abundance, suggesting a very wet rain forest climate. In fact, Java region experienced the wettest climate during Oligocene which probably reflected a wet climate fringe to the eastern margin of Sundaland prior to the collision of the Australian and Asian plates at the Oligo-Miocene boundary.
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Zajch, Andrew, William A. Gough et Giacomo Chiesa. « Earth–Air Heat Exchanger Geo-Climatic Suitability for Projected Climate Change Scenarios in the Americas ». Sustainability 12, no 24 (18 décembre 2020) : 10613. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su122410613.
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Earth–air heat exchangers (EAHE) provide heating and cooling that is intrinsically tied to the climate of the surrounding environment. A climate-based approach was applied to 273 sites for both historical and projected climate conditions, with the latter being defined by three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) from the CMIP5 collection of Global Circulation Models (GCMs). Changes to heating and cooling degree hours as well as heating and cooling capacity were estimated and used to classify geo-climatic suitability. The analysis revealed cooler climates will retain their ability to provide cooling despite increasing cooling needs driven by warming temperatures. On the other hand, warmer, more tropical, climates will observe reduced suitability as cooling demand grows. The magnitude and variability of the changes in EAHE potential were greatest for the RCP8.5 scenario during the 2061–2090 time period, particularly for regions with a comparable mix of heating and cooling needs. Ultimately, the results demonstrate that future EAHE suitability is climate dependent, with cooler climates being relatively resistant to changes when compared to warmer climates. The results can be used by stakeholders to find useful climate analogs for their sites of interest to consider the potential impact of global climate change on EAHE usability.
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Dubois, Emmanuel, Marie Larocque, Sylvain Gagné et Marco Braun. « Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Recharge in Cold and Humid Climates : Controlling Processes and Thresholds ». Climate 10, no 1 (12 janvier 2022) : 6. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli10010006.
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Long-term changes in precipitation and temperature indirectly impact aquifers through groundwater recharge (GWR). Although estimates of future GWR are needed for water resource management, they are uncertain in cold and humid climates due to the wide range in possible future climatic conditions. This work aims to (1) simulate the impacts of climate change on regional GWR for a cold and humid climate and (2) identify precipitation and temperature changes leading to significant long-term changes in GWR. Spatially distributed GWR is simulated in a case study for the southern Province of Quebec (Canada, 36,000 km2) using a water budget model. Climate scenarios from global climate models indicate warming temperatures and wetter conditions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5; 1951–2100). The results show that annual precipitation increases of >+150 mm/yr or winter precipitation increases of >+25 mm will lead to significantly higher GWR. GWR is expected to decrease if the precipitation changes are lower than these thresholds. Significant GWR changes are produced only when the temperature change exceeds +2 °C. Temperature changes of >+4.5 °C limit the GWR increase to +30 mm/yr. This work provides useful insights into the regional assessment of future GWR in cold and humid climates, thus helping in planning decisions as climate change unfolds. The results are expected to be comparable to those in other regions with similar climates in post-glacial geological environments and future climate change conditions.
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Harrison, Susan, Marko J. Spasojevic et Daijiang Li. « Climate and plant community diversity in space and time ». Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117, no 9 (18 février 2020) : 4464–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1921724117.
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Climate strongly shapes plant diversity over large spatial scales, with relatively warm and wet (benign, productive) regions supporting greater numbers of species. Unresolved aspects of this relationship include what causes it, whether it permeates to community diversity at smaller spatial scales, whether it is accompanied by patterns in functional and phylogenetic diversity as some hypotheses predict, and whether it is paralleled by climate-driven changes in diversity over time. Here, studies of Californian plants are reviewed and new analyses are conducted to synthesize climate–diversity relationships in space and time. Across spatial scales and organizational levels, plant diversity is maximized in more productive (wetter) climates, and these consistent spatial relationships are mirrored in losses of taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity over time during a recent climatic drying trend. These results support the tolerance and climatic niche conservatism hypotheses for climate–diversity relationships, and suggest there is some predictability to future changes in diversity in water-limited climates.
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Kwon, Minsung, et Jang Hyun Sung. « Changes in Future Drought with HadGEM2-AO Projections ». Water 11, no 2 (12 février 2019) : 312. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w11020312.
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The standardized precipitation index (SPI)—a meteorological drought index—uses various reference precipitation periods. Generally, drought projections using future climate change scenarios compare reference SPIs between baseline and future climates. Here, future drought was projected based on reference precipitation under the baseline climate to quantitatively compare changes in the frequency and severity of future drought. High-resolution climate change scenarios were produced using HadGEM2-AO General Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios for Korean weather stations. Baseline and future 3-month cumulative precipitation data were fitted to gamma distribution; results showed that precipitation of future climate is more than the precipitation of the baseline climate. When future precipitation was set as that of the baseline climate instead of the future climate, results indicated that drought intensity and frequency will decrease because the non-exceedance probability for the same precipitation is larger in the baseline climate than in future climate. However, due to increases in regional precipitation variability over time, some regions with opposite trends were also identified. Therefore, it is necessary to understand baseline and future climates in a region to better design resilience strategies and mechanisms that can help cope with future drought.
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Bryson, Reid A. « Simulating Past and Forecasting Future Climates ». Environmental Conservation 20, no 4 (1993) : 339–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0376892900023547.
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Climatic change is not a new phenomenon, nor is it random, as most of the variation can be explained in terms of variations in the sunlight reaching the surface of the Earth. The solar energy reaching the surface is modified by the aerosols in the atmosphere, however, and that means primarily aerosols of volcanic origin.The climatic history of the Earth is divided up into episodes with abrupt beginnings and ends. Rapid changes from one climatic state to another are normal. The fluctuations within this century do not appear to be unusual in any respect.To the Author's knowledge there is no evidence that past climatic changes, including those of the last decades, are related to changes in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere—except perhaps for warmer nights in the North American mid-west. It is not possible to simulate past climates using carbon dioxide content as the main variable, but it is possible to do so using calculated solar radiation as modified by volcanic aerosols. This strongly suggests that forecasts of the climatic future based on carbon dioxide increases are suspect.Computerized models of the climate that can simulate decadal and century-long variations of climate as well as variations on the millennium scale, suggest that the climate will not warm dramatically in the next fifty years, but will, rather soon after that, begin a rather rapid change towards the next glacial climate.Changes in our global array of cultures, sufficient to affect the global climate in a way which we perceive as beneficial, probably are not possible within centuries without massive physical conflict. There are both winners and losers when the climate changes in a non-uniform pattern, as it always does. It is a well-known fact that a global change of 0.5°C in mean temperature, such as has happened in recent years, might produce some regions of 10°C change in either direction and some regions with no change at all, and additionally an array of rainfall changes of various magnitudes. Russians would welcome warming of their climate!The problems with attempting to modify the global climate in a particular direction are enormous and would be incredibly costly. This is compounded by our not knowing what the climate would do without intervention. Only one thing is truly clear, and it is that the present knowledge of the climatic effect of changing carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere is totally inadequate as a basis for initiating any global attempt to change the climate.The indicated action would appear to be to engage in some high-quality climatic research based on sound science before taking global risks greater than those that might arise from the putative ‘global warming’.
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McGee, David. « Glacial–Interglacial Precipitation Changes ». Annual Review of Marine Science 12, no 1 (3 janvier 2020) : 525–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-010419-010859.
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Glacial–interglacial cycles have constituted a primary mode of climate variability over the last 2.6 million years of Earth's history. While glacial periods cannot be seen simply as a reverse analogue of future warming, they offer an opportunity to test our understanding of the response of precipitation patterns to a much wider range of conditions than we have been able to directly observe. This review explores key features of precipitation patterns associated with glacial climates, which include drying in large regions of the tropics and wetter conditions in substantial parts of the subtropics and midlatitudes. I describe the evidence for these changes and examine the potential causes of hydrological changes during glacial periods. Central themes that emerge include the importance of atmospheric circulation changes in determining glacial–interglacial precipitation changes at the regional scale, the need to take into account climatic factors beyond local precipitation amount when interpreting proxy data, and the role of glacial conditions in suppressing the strength of Northern Hemisphere monsoon systems.
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Ruget, F., J. C. Moreau, M. Ferrand, S. Poisson, P. Gate, B. Lacroix, J. Lorgeou, E. Cloppet et F. Souverain. « Describing the possible climate changes in France and some examples of their effects on main crops used in livestock systems ». Advances in Science and Research 4, no 1 (2 août 2010) : 99–104. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/asr-4-99-2010.
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Abstract. The effects of climate change on forage and crop production are an important question for the farmers and more largely for the food security in the world. Estimating the effect of climate change on agricultural production needs the use of two types of tools: a model to estimate changes in national or local climates and an other model using climatic data to estimate the effects on vegetation. In this paper, we will mainly present the effects of climate change on climatic features, the variability of criteria influencing crop production in various regions of France and some possible effects on crops.
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Chiesa, Giacomo. « Climatic potential maps of ventilative cooling techniques in Italian climates including resilience to climate changes ». IOP Conference Series : Materials Science and Engineering 609 (23 octobre 2019) : 032039. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1757-899x/609/3/032039.
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Barcellos, Afonso Lopes, Renata Da Silva Pereira Saccol, Nathalia Leal Carvalho et Luana Filippin Rosa. « A simple reflection on climate change ». Revista Eletrônica em Gestão, Educação e Tecnologia Ambiental 23 (1 juin 2019) : 18. http://dx.doi.org/10.5902/2236117034387.
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In order to discuss climate change and our role, this literature review was developed. The term climate change, climate change or climate change refers to global-scale climate change or Earth's regional climates over time. These variations refer to changes in temperature, precipitation, cloudiness and other climatic phenomena in relation to historical averages. Such variations can alter climatic characteristics in a way to change their didactic classification. These changes can be caused by processes internal to the Earth-atmosphere system, by external forces, or by the result of human activity. Therefore, it is understood that climate change can be either an effect of natural processes or arising from human action and so one should keep in mind what kind of climate change is being referred to.
Thèses sur le sujet "Climates changes"
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Bahadur, Aditya Vansh. « Policy climates and climate policies : analysing the politics of building resilience to climate change ». Thesis, University of Sussex, 2014. http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/48873/.
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This thesis seeks to examine the politics of building resilience to climate change by analysing the manner in which policy contexts and initiatives to build climate change resilience interact. For analysis, the ‘policy context' is broken into its three constituent parts- actors, policy spaces and discourses. This permits the addition of new knowledge on how discourses attached to resilience are dissonant with those prevailing in ossified policy environments in developing countries; the influence of actor networks, epistemic communities, knowledge intermediaries and policy entrepreneurs in helping climate change resilience gain traction in policy environments; and the dynamic interaction of interest, agendas and power within decision-making spaces attached to resilience-building processes. This analysis takes place by employing a case-study of a major, international climate change resilience initiative unfolding in two Indian cities. Using data gathered through a variety of rigorous qualitative research methods employed over 14 months of empirical inquiry the thesis highlights issues of politics and power to argue that they are significant determinants of processes to deal with climate impacts. More specifically, it expands current understandings of engaging with climate impacts by exposing gaps in resilience thinking and argues against a technocratic approach to designing and executing resilience policies. In doing so it also demonstrates that resilience, with its emphasis on systems thinking, dealing with uncertainty and community engagement brings new challenges for policy makers. As the study is located in the urban context, it highlights the manner in which fragmented urban policy environments, dense patterns of settlement in cities, urban livelihood patterns and prevailing epistemic cultures can pose obstacles for a policy initiative aimed at building resilience to climate change. Finally, the research underlines the importance of coupling resilience with local narratives of dealing with shocks and stresses, argues for genuine iteration and shared learning during decision-making and highlights the need to celebrate multiple visions of resilience. Findings from this research can help inform a growing number of policy initiatives aimed at deploying resilience to help those battling the exigencies of a changing climate in some of the world's most vulnerable areas.
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Rupper, Summer Burton. « Glacier sensitivity and regional climate : past and present / ». Thesis, Connect to this title online ; UW restricted, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/6728.
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Van, Niekerk Christiaan Hermanus. « Past and present climates : owl pellet composition as an indicator of local climatic change ». Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/52395.
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Thesis (MScAgric)--University of Stellenbosch, 2001.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: During Holocene times a considerable deposit of barn owl pellet material accumulated in the Hot Pot Cave at De Hoop Nature Reserve on the southern coast of the Western Cape Province, South Africa. An excavation of this accumulation has yielded information on barn owl prey species over the past some two millennia. Four distinct layers were excavated and radiocarbon-dated to AD 381, AD 615, AD 991 and AD 1417. The micromammalian cranial contents of these layers were compared to material from two pellet collections that represent modem bam owl predation at De Hoop (AD 2000). Comparisons were made from three perspectives: (1) physical size measurements of certain cranial parameters, (2) micromammal community species composition and (3) community structure indices, such as the Shannon-Wiener diversity index, Simpson's diversity index and the species equitability index. By extrapolating from known ecological distribution information of the relevant prey species, these data were used to recreate the local climate at the time of the accumulation of the layers. The results were compared to other palaeoclimate models for the region as a test of validity. It was found that the lower two layers of the sequence represented mild conditions with possibly more grass than in recent times, while the upper layers represented cool weather with a possible increase in scrub. AD 381 was found to be somewhat dry and mild, AD 615 to be the wettest level and possibly milder than AD 381, AD 991 to be the coolest of all the levels and dryest of the ancient levels, AD 1417 to be somewhat cool and probably drier than AD 615, but wetter than AD 381, and AD 2000 to be the mildest and dryest of all levels, with the artificial influence of nearby agricultural activities evident.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Tydens die Holoseen tydperk het 'n relatief groot hoeveelheid nonnietjie-uil bolusmateriaal versamel in Hot Pot Grot in die De Hoop Natuurreservaat aan die Wes-Kaapse suidkus, Suid- Afrika. Opgrawings van hierdie bolusversameling het waardevolle en insiggewende inligting aandie lig gebring rakende nonnetjie-uil prooi tydens ongeveer die afgelope tweeduisend jaar. Vier defnitiewe lae is opgegrawe en deur radiodatering is die lae se datums vasgestelop 381, 615, 991 en 1417 n.e. Deur gebruik te maak van kraniale kriteria. is die mikrosoogdier inhoud van die opgrawings vergelyk met dié van twee bolusversamelings wat die huidige uilprooi (2000 n.Ci) in De Hoop verteenwoordig. Die vergelykings is op drie maniere getref: (1) fisiese grootternates van sekere kraniale parameters, (2) species-samestelling van die mikrosoogdiergemeenskap en (3) gemeenskap-struktuur indekse nl. die Shannon-Wiener diversiteitsindeks, Simpson se diversiteitsindeks en die species-gelykheid indeks. Deur ekstrapolasie vanaf bekende ekologiese verspreidingsinligting rakende die betrokke species, is hierdie data gebruik om die klimaat van daardie tydperke te herskep op 'n streeksbasis en vergelyk met ander paleoklimaat-modelle om die geldigheid daarvan te beproef. Die resultate het getoon dat die onderste (oudste) twee lae warmer toestande met moontlik meer gras verteenwoordig, terwyl die boonste twee lae koeler weer met moontlik meer bosse verteenwoordig. Daar is verder gevind dat 381 n.e. redelik droog en warm was, 615 n.e. die natste laag en moontlik warmer as 381 n.e., 991 n.e. die koudste van al die lae en droogste van die grot-lae, 1417 n.e. redelik koel en moontlik droëer as 615 n.e., maar natter as 381 n.e., en 2000 n.C. die warmste en droogste van al die lae, met kunsmatige invloed van nabygeleë landbou aktiwiteite.
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Romanova, Vanya. « Stability of the climate system and extreme climates in model experiments = Stabilität des Klimasystems und extreme Klimate in Modellexperimenten / ». Bremerhaven : Alfred-Wegener-Inst. für Polar- und Meeresforschung, 2005. http://www.gbv.de/dms/goettingen/495760498.pdf.
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Heard, Joshua Andrews. « Late Pleistocene and Holocene Aged Glacial and Climatic Reconstructions in the Goat Rocks Wilderness, Washington, United States ». PDXScholar, 2012. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/557.
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Eight glaciers, covering an area of 1.63 km2, reside on the northern and northeastern slopes of the Goat Rocks tallest peaks in the Cascades of central Washington. At least three glacial stands occurred downstream from these glaciers. Closest to modern glacier termini are Little Ice Age (LIA) moraines that were deposited between 1870 and 1899 AD, according to the lichenometric analysis. They are characterized by sharp, minimally eroded crests, little to no soil cover, and minimal vegetation cover. Glacier reconstructions indicate that LIA glaciers covered 8.29 km2, 76% more area than modern ice coverage. The average LIA equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of 1995 ± 70 m is ~150 m below the average modern ELA of 2149 ± 76 m. To satisfy climate conditions at the LIA ELA, the winter snow accumulation must have been 8 to 43 cm greater and mean summer temperatures 0.2 to 1.3 ºC cooler than they are now. Late Pleistocene to early Holocene (LPEH) aged moraines are located between 100 and 400 m below the LIA deposits. They have degraded moraine crests, few surface boulders, and considerable vegetation and soil cover. Volcanic ashes indicate LPEH moraines were deposited before 1480 AD while morphometric data suggest deposition during the late Pleistocene or early Holocene. The average LPEH ELA of 1904 ± 110 m is ~ 240 m and ~90 m below the modern and LIA ELAs, respectively. The climate change necessary to maintain a glacier with an ELA at that elevation for LPEH conditions requires the winter accumulation to increase by 47 to 48 cm weq and the mean summer temperature to cool by 1.4 to 1.5 ºC. Last glacial maximum (LGM) moraines are located more than 30 km downstream from modern glacial termini. They are characterized by hummocky topography, rounded moraine crests, complete vegetation cover, and well developed soil cover. Moraine morphometry, soil characteristics, and distance from modern glacial termini indicate that deposition occurred at least 15 ka BP during an expansive cooling event, the last being the LGM. The LGM ELA of 1230 m is ~920 m below the modern ELA. The climate change necessary to maintain a glacier with an ELA at that elevation for LGM conditions requires the mean summer temperature to cool by 5.6 ºC with no change in precipitation.
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Young, Seth Allen. « A chemostratigraphic investigation of the late Ordovician greenhouse to icehouse transition oceanographic, climatic, and tectonic implications / ». Columbus, Ohio : Ohio State University, 2008. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=osu1201628490.
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Tidwell, Amy C. « Assessing the impacts of climate change on river basin management a new method with application to the Nile river/ ». Diss., Atlanta, Ga. : Georgia Institute of Technology, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/19830.
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Thesis (Ph.D)--Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2007.Committee Chair: Georgakakos, Aris; Committee Member: Fu, Rong; Committee Member: Peters-Lidard, Christa; Committee Member: Roberts, Phil; Committee Member: Sturm, Terry; Committee Member: Webster, Don.
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Sandu, Suwin. « Assessment of carbon tax as a policy option for reducing carbon-dioxide emissions in Australia ». Electronic version, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/2100/535.
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University of Technology, Sydney. Faculty of Engineering.This research has analysed the economy-wide impacts of carbon tax as a policy option to reduce the rate of growth of carbon-dioxide emissions from the electricity sector in Australia. These impacts are analysed for energy and non energy sectors of the economy. An energy-oriented Input–Output framework, with ‘flexible’ production functions, based on Translog and Cobb-Douglas formulations, is employed for the analysis of various impacts. Further, two alternative conceptions of carbon tax are considered in this research, namely, based on Polluter Pays Principle (PPP) and Shared Responsibility Principle (SRP). In the first instance, the impacts are analysed, for the period 2005–2020, for tax levels of $10 and $20 per tonne of CO2, in a situation of no a-priori limit on CO2 emissions. The analysis shows that CO2 emissions from the electricity sector, when carbon tax is based on PPP, would be 211 and 152 Mt, for tax levels of $10 and $20, respectively (as compared to 250 Mt in the Base Case scenario, that is, the business-as-usual-case). The net economic costs, corresponding with these tax levels, expressed in present value terms, would be $27 and $49 billion, respectively, over the period 2005-2020. These economic costs are equivalent to 0.43 and 0.78 per cent of the estimated GDP of Australia. Further, most of the economic burden, in this instance, would fall on the electricity sector, particularly coal-fired electricity generators – large consumers of direct fossil fuel. On the other hand, in the case of a carbon tax based on SRP, CO2 emissions would be 172 and 116 Mt, for tax levels of $10 and $20, respectively. The corresponding net economic costs would be $47 (0.74 per cent of GDP) and $84 (1.34 per cent of GDP) billion, respectively, with significant burden felt by the commercial sector – large consumers of indirect energy and materials whose production would contribute to CO2 emissions. Next, the impacts are analysed by placing an a-priori limit on CO2 emissions from the electricity sector – equivalent to 108 per cent of the 1990 level (that is, 138 Mt), by the year 2020. Two cases are analysed, namely, early action (carbon tax introduced in 2005) and deferred action (carbon tax introduced in 2010). In the case of early action, the analysis suggests, carbon tax of $25 and $15, based on PPP and SRP, respectively, would be required to achieve the above noted emissions target. The corresponding tax levels in the case of deferred action are $51 and $26, respectively. This research also shows that the net economic costs, in the case of early action, would be $32 billion (for PPP) and $18 billion (for SRP) higher than those in the case of deferred action. However, this research has demonstrated, that this inference is largely due to the selection of particular indicator (that is, present value) and the relatively short time frame (that is, 2005–2020) for analysis. By extending the time frame of the analysis to the year 2040, the case for an early introduction of carbon tax strengthens. Overall, the analysis in this research suggests that an immediate introduction of carbon tax, based on SRP, is the most attractive approach to reduce the rate of growth of CO2 emissions from the electricity sector and to simultaneously meet economic and social objectives. If the decision to introduce such a tax is deferred, it would be rather difficult to achieve not only environmental objectives but economic and social objectives as well.
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Gramcianinov, Carolina Barnez. « Changes in South Atlantic Cyclones due Climate Change ». Universidade de São Paulo, 2018. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/14/14133/tde-03122018-151737/.
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Cyclones distribution and intensities impact directly on human activities, mainly due to their associated intense precipitation and winds. The main aim of this thesis is to understand changes in the cyclones originated in the South Atlantic focusing on their genesis and intensifying mechanisms. Cyclones are identified and tracked based on the relative vorticity field at 850 hPa computed from the winds. The characteristics of the cyclones are obtained by diagnostic variables sampled within a radial distance from each cyclone center and to produce a spatial distribution of the cyclone properties at the time of genesis. Also, cyclone centered composites are used to analyze the cyclone structure and the evolution of cyclones during their genesis. The climatology of cyclones was done using NCEP-CFSR and shows four main cyclogenesis regions in the South Atlantic Ocean: on the Southern Brazilian coast (SE-BR, 30°S), over the continent near the La Plata river discharge region (LA PLATA, 35°S), on the southeastern coast of Argentina (ARG, 40°S-55°S) and on the Southeastern Atlantic (SE-SAO, centered at 55°S and 10°W). To access changes in cyclone development, we used the CMIP5 HadGEM2-ES historical experiment (1980-2005) and RCP8.5 future projection (2074-2099). The HadGEM2-ES can represent the main South Atlantic characteristics of cyclones according to NCEP-CFSR climatology. However, there is an underestimation in cyclone frequency in the equatorward side of the storm track, particularly in the LA PLATA region. The HadGEM2-ES RCP8.5 future projection shows a general decrease of approximately 10% of cyclogenesis in the South Atlantic domain, which is mainly related to the poleward shift of the storm track. However, LA PLATA region presents a slight increase in its cyclogenetic activity (6.1 and 3.6%), in the summer and winter, respectively). The increase in genesis at 30°S over the continent is associated with the strengthening of the upper-level jet and the increase of warm and moisture advections at the same location. The enhance in the moisture transport from the tropics is also related to the intensification of the cyclone in the domain, mainly northward of 35°S. Finally, a downscaling using WRF was performed in an attempt to improve the climate model resolution. However the downscaling produces less and weaker cyclones in the NCEP-CFSR and HadGEM2-ES runs. The only region that presented an improvement was LA PLATA, due to the better representation of local features related to orography and moisture processes. The downscaled HadGEM2-ES RCP8.5 also shows an increase in cyclogenesis in the LA PLATA region and other locations. The HadGEM2-ES RCP8.5 projection and its downscaling shows that the cyclogenesis in some locations of South America is increasing, mainly due to the increase in the low-level moisture content and the strengthening of the equatorward flank of the upper-level jet. The cyclones in this locations will be slightly intense (between 20°S and 30°S) and will affect a narrow area close to the South American coast.A distribuição e intensidade dos ciclones afeta diretamente as atividades humanas devido a precipitação e fortes ventos associados a esses sistemas. O objetivo principal deste trabalho é entender as mudanças nos ciclones gerados no Atlântico Sul devido às mudanças climáticas, focando em seus mecanismos geradores e intensificadores. Os ciclones foram identificados e rastreados utilizando a vorticidade relativa em 850hPa, calculada a partir do campo de ventos horizontal. Também foram usadas composições centradas para a análise da estrutura e evolução dos ciclones durante seu desenvolvimento. A climatologia de ciclones feita com o NCEP-CFSR mostra quatro regiões ciclogenéticas principais no Oceano Atlântico Sul: na costa sul do Brasil (SE-BR, 30°S), sobre o continente próximo da desembocadura do Rio da Prata (LA PLATA, 35°S), na costa sudeste da Argentina (ARG, 40°S-55°S) e no Sudeste do Atlântico (SE-SAO, centrada em 55°S, 10°W). Para analisar as mudanças no desenvolvimento dos ciclones, nós utilizamos os experimentos histórico (1980-2005) e RCP8.5 (2074-2099) do HadGEM2-ES (CMIP5). O HadGEM2-ES é capaz de reapresentar as principais características dos ciclones do Atlântico Sul, quando comparado à climatologia. No entanto, existe uma subestimativa do número de ciclones no lado equatorial da região de máxima atividade ciclônica, principalmente na região LA PLATA. A projeção futura HadGEM2-ES no cenário RCP8.5 mostra uma redução de aproximadamente 10% na ciclogêneses no domínio do Atlântico Sul, principalmente associada ao deslocamento em direção ao polo da região de máxima atividade ciclônica. Porém, a região LA PLATA apresenta um pequeno aumento em sua atividade ciclogenética (6.1 e 3.6%), no verão e inverno, respectivamente). O aumento na ciclogênese em 30°S está associada ao fortalecimento do jato de altos níveis e ao aumento da advecção quente e de umidade nessa localidade. O aumento do transporte de umidade dos trópicos está associado também à intensificação dos ciclones observada na projeção futura, principalmente ao norte de 35°S. Por fim, uma regionalização com o modelo WRF foi usada para melhorar a resolução do modelo climático. Porém, as simulações regionais subestimaram os ciclones em número e intensidade. A única região que em as regionalizações apresentaram melhor desempenho foi a LA PLATA, devido a uma melhor representação de feições locais associadas a orografia e processos úmidos. A regionalização do cenário futuro RCP8.5 também apresentou aumento da ciclogênese do LA PLATA, mas para o inverno. Tanto a projeção RCP8.5 do HadGEM2-ES quanto sua regionalização mostram que a ciclogênese em algumas regiões da América do Sul está aumentando, principalmente devido ao aumento de umidade em baixos níveis da atmosfera e fortalecimento do lado ramo equatorial do jato de altos níveis. Os ciclones nessas localidades serão intensos (entre 20°S e 30°S) e tendem a afetar uma região mais próxima à costa.
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Van, Huyssteen Roelof Cornelis. « Regulatory aspects of carbon credits and carbon markets ». Thesis, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10948/5086.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Regulating carbon markets in order to fight the effects of climate change has in recent years become an integral part of many economies around the world. Ensuring that policymakers implement market-based climate change legislation according to international best practice is an essential part to guarantee that a carbon market system operates smoothly within a country’s economy. There are many opportunities that exist in South Africa towards developing a lucrative carbon market; however, the information to implement such a system is hard to come by and complex to analyse. This dissertation will aim to shed some light on this relatively new field of the law as it will provide an overview of international best practice within the carbon market sphere. Furthermore, this dissertation will examine the legal nature of a carbon credit; analyse international instruments regulating carbon markets and discuss existing South African policies and legislation related to climate change and carbon markets. This will lead to the ultimate objective of this dissertation: to propose a possible framework for the regulation of a South African carbon market based upon international best practice. This dissertation revealed the imperative need for South African policymakers to implement legislation to conform to international best practice within carbon markets. In this regard the dissertation also revealed that the infrastructure to regulate such a market already exists within South Africa. Only subtle changes to these infrastructure systems will be required in order for to accommodate a functioning carbon market. The study revealed that the only way to convince entities around the world to emit fewer emissions and to contribute towards the fight against climate change is to attach a monetary value to emissions. Associating a price to carbon is the only way to sanction entities that produce emissions and compensate entities that mitigate emissions. A carbon tax coupled with a carbon offset mechanism, as opposed to a emissions trading scheme, would be the best option with regards to establishing a South African carbon policy. This will ensure a fair playing field, as carbon tax liable entities would be held responsible to pay the same fixed price per ton of carbon that they emit. Coupling the carbon tax with a carbon offset mechanism, trading with carbon credits, will incentivise companies to invest in “greener” technologies and to emit fewer emissions. This dissertation revealed that international best practice in the carbon market sphere, still poses significant difficulties such as price volatility associated with carbon credits; validation and verification inconsistencies within the different carbon standards; and supply and demand fluctuations. These difficulties where highlighted in this dissertation and solutions relating to these difficulties were discussed. The time has come for South Africa to enter the carbon market sphere, whether it be through the introduction of a carbon tax or otherwise. This dissertation illustrates that the infrastructure and stakeholders associated to a South African carbon market needs to be developed. If, when and how the government will actually implement such a carbon market system, remains a question to be answered.
Livres sur le sujet "Climates changes"
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Keith, Lye. Equatorial climates. Austin, Tex : Raintree Steck-Vaughn, 1997.
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Francou, Bernard. Les glaciers, à l'épreuve du climat. Paris : IRD Éditions : Éditions Belin, 2007.
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Broecker, Wallace S. The glacial world according to Wally. Palisades,NY : Eldigio Press, 1995.
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Gritzner, Charles F. Changing climates. New York : Chelsea House Publishers, 2009.
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Gritzner, Charles F. Changing climates. New York : Chelsea House Publishers, 2010.
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Turney, Chris. Ice, mud and blood : Lessons from climates past. London : Macmillan, 2008.
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Martin, Beniston, dir. Mountain environments in changing climates. London : Routledge, 1994.
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Gebauer, Claudia. Changing climates : Translating adaptation in/to Rwanda. Berlin : LIT Verlag, 2017.
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1940-, Greenland David, Long-Term Ecological Research Program. Climatology Committee., University of Colorado, Boulder. Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research. et National Science Foundation (U.S.). Division of Biotic Systems and Resources., dir. The Climates of the long-term ecological research sites. Boulder, Colo : University of Colorado, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, 1987.
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Weidick, Anker. Neoglacial and historical glacier changes around Kangersuneq Fjord in southern West Greenland. Copenhagen : Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Danish Ministry of Climate and Energy, 2012.
Trouver le texte intégralChapitres de livres sur le sujet "Climates changes"
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Montmessin, F. « The Orbital Forcing of Climate Changes on Mars ». Dans Solar Variability and Planetary Climates, 457–72. New York, NY : Springer New York, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-48341-2_37.
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Panyushkina, Irina P. « Climate-Induced Changes in Population Dynamics of Siberian Scythians (700-250 B.C.) ». Dans Climates, Landscapes, and Civilizations, 145–54. Washington, D. C. : American Geophysical Union, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012gm001220.
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Ren, Diandong. « Changes in Extreme Precipitation in a Future Warming Climate ». Dans Storm-triggered Landslides in Warmer Climates, 155–207. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-08518-0_7.
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Karyono, Tri Harso. « Behavioural Changes May Affect Changes in Comfort Temperature of Indonesian People ». Dans Sustainable Houses and Living in the Hot-Humid Climates of Asia, 219–24. Singapore : Springer Singapore, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-8465-2_21.
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Weisse, Ralf, et Hans von Storch. « Past and future changes in wind, wave, and storm surge climates ». Dans Marine Climate and Climate Change, 165–203. Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-68491-6_5.
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McGlone, Matt S. « The response of New Zealand forest diversity to Quaternary climates ». Dans Past and Future Rapid Environmental Changes, 73–80. Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-60599-4_5.
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Paterson, Shona K., et Kristen Guida. « Bridging Gaps : Connecting Climate Change Risk Assessments with Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation Agendas ». Dans Creating Resilient Futures, 65–80. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-80791-7_4.
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AbstractChanging climates and increasing variability, in combination with maladaptive societal responses, present many threats and risks to both social and biophysical systems. The outcomes of such changes will progressively affect all aspects of ecosystem functioning including social, political, and economic landscapes. Coordination between the three frameworks that govern risk at national and subnational scales, climate change risk assessments, climate adaptation planning and disaster risk reduction (DRR), is often lacking or limited. This has resulted in a siloed and fragmented approach to climate action. By examining risk as a dynamic social construction that is reimagined and reinvented by society over time, this chapter explores how a greater degree of cohesion between these three frameworks might be achieved.
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Kovar-Eder, J., R. Givulescu, L. Hably, Z. Kvacek, D. Mihajlovic, J. Teslenko, H. Walther et E. Zastawniak. « Floristic Changes in the Areas Surrounding the Paratethys during Neogene Time ». Dans Cenozoic Plants and Climates of the Arctic, 347–69. Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-79378-3_23.
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Nayak, Sridhara, et Tetsuya Takemi. « Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Temperature and Precipitation Over India ». Dans Natural Disaster Science and Mitigation Engineering : DPRI reports, 121–42. Singapore : Springer Singapore, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2904-4_4.
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AbstractThis study explores a comprehensive assessment of future climate change in terms of the climatologies, distribution patterns, annual cycles, and frequency distributions of temperature and precipitation over India by analyzing 190 mega-ensemble experimental results. The results indicate that the annual mean surface temperatures over Indian regions are typically 25 ℃ or higher in the present climate (1951–2010) and are expected to increase by 3–5 ℃ in the future climate (2051–2110). Some desert regions in the west and tropical humid climate types in the central and south regions of the country show possible temperature increases of 4–5 ℃, while the temperatures over the subtropical humid climates in the north and east regions of the country show increases of 3–4 ℃. The precipitation amounts over the arid and semiarid climate types in the western region and over some tropical rainforest climate zones in the southwest region show increases of 0.5 mm d−1 in the future climate, and the precipitation amounts over the temperate, rainy climate types in the northeast region show increases of more than 1 mm d−1. This study also discusses future changes in various climatic variables, including vertical velocity, air temperature, specific humidity, cloud cover, and relative humidity.
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Shishov, Vladimir V., Alberto Arzac, Margarita I. Popkova, Bao Yang, Minhui He et Eugene A. Vaganov. « Experimental and Theoretical Analysis of Tree-Ring Growth in Cold Climates ». Dans Advances in Global Change Research, 295–321. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-15988-6_11.
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AbstractThe medium- and long-term projections of global climate models show the effects of global warming will be most pronounced in cold climate areas, especially in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The consequences could involve a higher probability of global natural disasters and a higher uncertainty as to plant response to climate risk. In this chapter, we describe life under a cold climate, particularly in relation to forest ecosystems, species distribution, and local conditions in the Northern Hemisphere. We analyze recent climate trends and how the ongoing and future climate changes can affect the sensitivity of conifer species, the most common tree form in the boreal regions. We combine experimental data and theoretical process-based simulations involving tree-ring width, tree-ring density, and wood anatomy. This combined approach permits assessing a longer tree-ring record that overlaps with direct instrumental climate observations. The latter are currently experiencing the divergence problem in which tree-ring growth has diverged from the trends of the main climatic drivers. Given that most process-based models are multidimensional, the parameterization described in this chapter is key for obtaining reliable tree growth simulations connected with a site-specific climate, tree species, and the individual trajectory of tree development. Our approach combining experimental and theoretical approaches in xylogenesis is of interest to forest ecologists, physiologists, and wood anatomists.
Actes de conférences sur le sujet "Climates changes"
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Zhou, Shijia, Siyao Peng et Barbara Plank. « CLIMATELI : Evaluating Entity Linking on Climate Change Data ». Dans Proceedings of the 1st Workshop on Natural Language Processing Meets Climate Change (ClimateNLP 2024), 215–22. Stroudsburg, PA, USA : Association for Computational Linguistics, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.18653/v1/2024.climatenlp-1.16.
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Krarti, Moncef. « Evaluation of the Energy Efficiency Effectiveness of Cool Roofs for Residential Applications ». Dans ASME 2014 8th International Conference on Energy Sustainability collocated with the ASME 2014 12th International Conference on Fuel Cell Science, Engineering and Technology. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/es2014-6613.
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This study determines the effects of cool roofs on a home’s energy use, specifically on heating and cooling energy end-uses. Representative cities were chosen for several ASHRAE US climate zones. A series of parametric simulations in EnergyPlus was carried out to assess the performance of cool roofs for selected prototypical residential building models using detailed simulation analysis. The simulation results are then correlated for each climate zone type to give an approximation of the best roof color per climate. The results are given based on total energy used as well as energy cost based on national average electricity and natural gas residential rates. This method allows builders and homeowners the choice between the most cost effective roofing type, and the most energy efficient in the case that they are not the same. Overall, it was found that in hot climates, it is more efficient to have a white roof, while a black roof benefits cooler climates. In mild and mixed climates, the effect of roof color was found rather are different for energy use and energy cost. Therefore the choice is determined by the owner’s requirements. In the cooler and milder climate zones, the analysis shows that the cost excess or savings is fairly small; usually under $10 difference per year. Hotter climates also have a relatively small effect, but more so than the cooler climates, with Phoenix especially showing a savings of $48.60 per year when a white roof is used over a black roof. Energy changes as low as only 4% in the as-built construction style, or as high as nearly 100% change in upgraded envelope cases were found. The study further finds that both the lack of an attic, and high efficiency envelopes increases the magnitude of the percent change in energy requirements.
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Gaudenyi, Tivadar. « LOESS OF SERBIA—FROM PALEOCLIMATE TO WINEYARDS ». Dans Book of Abstracts and Contributed Papers, 10. Geographical Institute "Jovan Cvijić" SASA, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.46793/csge5.05tg.
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Loess is a buff colored, clastic sedimentary rocky of eolian origin without stratification and laminations where the silt particles predominates (beside clay and sand). Gentle lithification with carbonate bonds makes them highly sensitive to water impacts which dissolute this rock. Its vertical breaking made steep slopes. Loess in the sedimentary record deposits are not homogenous sediments, but most contain paleosols or sand horizons which we denominated loess series or loess-paleosol sequences. In Serbia loess series are the most widespread eolian sediments on which the high quality chernozem-like soils are formed. It qualifies as parent rock the premium arable land and wineyards. According to the relief characteristics in the landscape we can distinguish plain loess and slope loess. Based on CaCO 3 content the most of Serbian series belongs to the classic loess series while in the Morava valley at a few places we can found a non-carbonated loess series. Only at Stari Slankamen (Koševac) we can found Lower Pleistocene loess at the other places the young part of Middle Pleistocene or just the Upper Plesitocene loess series are preserved in the sedimentary record. Loess series serve as a record of past climates and environmental conditions. Key aspects of loess and paleoclimate studies include stratigraphy and cyclicity deposits often show distinct layering that corresponds to different climatic periods. Within loess series, paleosols can provide additional information about past climates. The timing of loess deposition often correlates with glacial and interglacial cycles. Loess series can contain various proxies for past climates, such as mollusks, which provides information about past biotope proxies. Analysis of loess can help reconstruct past wind patterns and dust transport routes, offering insights into changes in atmospheric circulation and climate systems over time. The importance of loess studies help reconstruct past environments dynamics and climate conditions, providing a context for understanding past climate variability and change. Data from loess deposits can improve climate models by providing empirical evidence of past climate conditions, which helps refine predictions about future climate changes. Loess deposits have influenced human history by shaping agricultural practices and settlement patterns.
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Sequera, Pedro, Osei Rhone, Jorge E. Gonza´lez, Amanuel T. Ghebreegziabher, Robert Bornstein et Bereket Lebassi. « Impacts of Climate Changes in the Northern Pacific Coast on Related Regional Scale Energy Demands ». Dans ASME 2011 5th International Conference on Energy Sustainability. ASMEDC, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/es2011-54708.
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For the past few decades sea surface temperatures across the globe have been increasing, causing changes in the global and regional climates. The focus of this study is to determine the impacts of these climate changes in coastal California region and possible linkages to energy infrastructure. The specific goal of this study is to determine the changes in cooling degree days (CDD) for the Northern Pacific Coast of the U.S., with emphasis on the California region for the years 1970 to 2007. Daily, monthly and annual temperature trends in months May, June, July, August and September are used to complement this analysis. Temperature data from more than 300 surface weather stations were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The work follows recent findings by the authors where the decreasing of maximum summer temperatures in two coastal air basins of California was attributed to the increase in sea breeze flow. This was caused by regional climate changes which led to induced sealand asymmetric warming and referred to as a reverse-reaction of global warming. This study aims to analyze temperature trends along the entire North Pacific Coast and over time, showing how it relates in the same temporal and spatial scales to changes in CDD. Finally, the study explores the possible correlations of decadal trends of CDD with actual summer peak electric utility data demonstrating how regional climate changes are affecting regional energy demands.
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Mihajlović, Jovan, Dragan Burić et Miroslav Doderović. « REVISED THORNTHWAITE CLIMATE CLASSIFICATION FOR MONTENEGRO (1961–2020) ». Dans Book of Abstracts and Contributed Papers, 18. Geographical Institute "Jovan Cvijić" SASA, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.46793/csge5.11jm.
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The main objective of this paper is to perform a bioclimatic delineation of regions with varying degrees of humidity in Montenegro using the Thornthwaite Moisture Index. A dataset spanning 60 years (1961–2020) was utilized, comprising air temperature and precipitation sums from 18 meteorological stations (MS). The homogeneity of the data was examined using the methods MASH v3.02 and MISH v1.02. For determining the climatic classification categories, the 60-year period (1961–2020) was divided into two standard climatic sub-periods: 1961–1990 and 1991–2020, to detect any changes in the spatial distribution of climates. The analysis was conducted on a multi-year monthly level. Calculations were performed using the software package PAST 4.13, and maps were drawn using QGIS 2.8.1. For the mathematical modeling of the cartographic representation of Thornthwaite’s climatic classification, the Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) geostatistical interpolation method was used. The hythergraph method was used for graphical representation of stations as typical representatives of climates in the Thornthwaite classification system. The results obtained for the 60-year period indicate that the Thornthwaite Moisture Index (PE) has values ranging from 631.5 (MS Crkvica), indicating a humid (A) climate with forest and persistent rain, to 95 (MS Pljevlja), indicating a humid (B) climate with forest vegetation. The majority of MS in Montenegro show values of this index that classify them into a humid (A) climate. The average value of the Thornthwaite Moisture Index (PE) at 18 MS for the 60-year period is 198.3, indicating that the climate of Montenegro during this period was humid with forest and persistent rain. According to the Thornthwaite Moisture Index (PE), the lowest effects were detected at stations in the north and northeast of Montenegro (MS Pljevlja, MS Berane, MS Bijelo Polje, MS Rožaje, and MS Plav), as well as at MS Ulcinj and MS Bar, while the highest effects were recorded at stations in the southwest and west of the territory. This can be related to the spatial distribution and precipitation regime in Montenegro. For each MS, Thornthwaite’s climatic formula was determined for the 60-year and two 30-year sub-periods, with changes in the climatic formula between the observed periods specifically marked.
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Sherman, Elisheva, et Lauren Neitzke Adamo. « CHANGING OCEANS AND CHANGING CLIMATES : EXAMINING DEEP-WATER CIRCULATION CHANGES ON GARDAR DRIFT ». Dans GSA Annual Meeting in Phoenix, Arizona, USA - 2019. Geological Society of America, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/abs/2019am-341324.
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Lohan, John, Niall Burke et Michael Greene. « Climate Variables That Influence the Thermal Performance of Horizontal Collector Ground Source Heat Pumps ». Dans ASME 8th Biennial Conference on Engineering Systems Design and Analysis. ASMEDC, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/esda2006-95589.
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The performance characteristics of new heat pumps are usually evaluated under standard test conditions in certified test laboratories prior to their market release. While this data allows potential customers an opportunity to compare different heat pumps under the same conditions it is difficult to assess how variations in operating conditions, particularly around horizontally oriented ground collectors impact on heat pump Coefficient Of Performance (COP). Indeed, harsh winter conditions of continental climates dictate that horizontal collectors are buried sufficiently deep enough to operate in a thermally stable environment, independent of the weather, but this is not as critical in milder maritime climates and shallower collectors that may be influenced by climate are used. This review paper therefore seeks to identify the key climate variables that have been shown to influence the efficiency of horizontal collector heat pump systems. The literature highlights the significant impact of soil moisture content on COP, but the extended relationship between climate, moisture content and COP has not been established. Historical climate data from both a continental and maritime climate is presented and key aspects of their respective weather patterns are compared to assess their capacity to influence soil condition and COP. A series of empirical models linking changes in soil moisture content to fluctuations in soil thermal conductivity, diffusivity and resistance are also presented so that the impact of climate on soil thermal energy content and heat transfer characteristics might be assessed. However, since no one study has experimentally determined the complex relationship between climate, soil heat transfer characteristics and heat pump performance, this paper concludes with an overview of an experimental test facility that allows this relationship to be established for horizontal collector heat pumps in maritime climates.
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Mall, Martin, Ulo Suursaar, Tomoya Shibayama et Ryota Nakamura. « Modeling Cyclone-Related Precipitation Changes in Future Climates Using WRF Model and CMIP5 Output Data ». Dans IGARSS 2019 - 2019 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium. IEEE, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/igarss.2019.8900309.
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Grekin, Rebecca, et Jacques de Chalendar. « Leveraging HVAC Set Point Changes for Operational Energy Performance Efficiency and Flexibility in Commercial Buildings : Experiments in a Moist Climate Zone ». Dans ASME 2023 17th International Conference on Energy Sustainability collocated with the ASME 2023 Heat Transfer Summer Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/es2023-107885.
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Abstract In this work, real-world demand flexibility experiments for Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems were conducted over the summer of 2022 in sections of a commercial building at a corporate campus in New Jersey (US Climate Zone 5A, Moist Cold). These experiments measured the decrease in cooling load observed associated with an increase in the temperature set point for the air discharged from eight central air handling units (AHU) serving approximately 17,500 square meters. It was found that using outside air enthalpies for estimating cooling loads in climates that have higher humidity is more accurate than using the mean daily temperatures, the parameter most used in the literature. For the median observed outside air enthalpy of 60 kJ/kg, it was found that temperature set point increases of 2°F (1.11°C) for the AHU discharge air temperature decreased expected cooling load by 3.5–11.9% per AHU. These results highlight the importance of considering outside air humidity in addition to temperature in flexibility models. These experiments also show that it is possible to implement load reduction techniques in buildings with limited controls, which reinforces the large potential for electricity and emissions savings from leveraging these opportunities across the US.
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Sosa, María Belén, Erica Correa et María Alicia Cantón. « Urban cooling strategies applying at neighborhood scale for facing heatwave events ». Dans XVII ENCONTRO NACIONAL DE CONFORTO NO AMBIENTE CONSTRUÍDO. ANTAC, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.46421/encac.v17i1.4139.
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Nowadays climate change is already affecting weather and climate extremes across the world, the scale of recent changes is unprecedented. Defined as prolonged periods of excessive heat, heatwaves are a specific type of extreme temperature event. Heatwaves are among the most dangerous of natural hazards. The study explored and analyzed how the implementation of heat-stress resilience strategies can create cooler settlements at neighborhood scale in arid contexts (Metropolitan Mendoza Area-Argentina). The methodology consists in an outdoor microclimate campaign and a computational model construction and statical validation for test outdoor cooling strategies (cool materials, street trees, densified, and the combination between them) in six scenarios. Results shows that combined strategies performance better, densified+cool materials+street trees, and cool materials+street trees. These scenarios can reduce temperatures for projected heatwave events by 3.8ºC in the maximum, 1.0ºC in the minimum and 2.1ºC in the average air temperatures; and 3.8ºC in the maximum, 0.8ºC in the minimum and 1.9ºC in the average air temperatures respectively. The main approach of the study is the evaluating of feasible strategies with the scope of generate neighborhood scale planning recommendations for cities with arid climates. Further studies would determinate which resilience strategy can be the most viable and cost-effective.
Rapports d'organisations sur le sujet "Climates changes"
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Näslund-Hadley, Emma, María Clara Ramos, Juan Roberto Paredes, Ángela Bolivar et Gustavo Wilches-Chaux. Our Climate is Changing. Inter-American Development Bank, janvier 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0006273.
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People used to take the weather and climate for granted -butnot anymore! They are both now studied intensively by scientists and discussed by celebrities and newscasters as they become increasingly important to our own daily lives. Every place on Earth has a climate. A climate includes factors that remain fairly constant for at least 30 years, such as temperature, humidity, the amount of water present in the air, and rainfall. The region between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn is called the intertropical (or equatorial) region. This is Earth's "waist" where there are no seasons. The weather tends to remain constant throughout the year. When discussing areas in these regions, instead of referring to seasonal weather changes, we might refer to them as having a rainy climate, meaning it rains frequently all year long. The weather in countries above and below the intertropical region are affected by seasons. For example, these climates may be rainy in the winter and dry in the summer. Weather refers to short-term conditions in a particular area that can quickly change, sometimes within minutes. Climate, however, does not normally change at a rapid pace. In fact, it can take years, decades, or even longer before changes in the climate can be felt.
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Kleman, Isabella. Onion storage diseases and their headspace volatiles. Faculty of Landscape Architecture, Horticulture and Crop Production Science, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.54612/a.602791tdo5.
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Onion, Allium cepa, is one of the world’s most commonly produced and consumed vegetables. In order to be available year round in temperate climates onions must be stored for several months. During this time parts of the harvested weight of bulbs are lost to storage diseases, sprouting and respiration leading to loss of carbohydrates and water. Diseases developing in storage may be difficult to spot at early stages as bulbs are typically stored in large bins. However, storage diseases can change the volatile metabolite profile of the infected onions. Electronic sensors that detect the concentration of specific volatile compounds in the air could be deployed in storage facilities to detect these changes. This would provide an early warning system that could detect diseases developing in storage bins before it becomes obvious to a human observer. In this way, some of the losses that occur during storage of onions could be prevented. This introductory paper discusses some of the available literature on the facets of onion production that are connected to storage disease development and the detection of said storage diseases using headspace sampling and analysis. The focus of the paper is mainly on onion production and storage of long day cultivars in relatively cold, temperate climates, as the use of short day cultivars and warm storage in warmer climates comes with different challenges and diseases.
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Lavender, B. Weathering the changes - climate change in Ontario. Natural Resources Canada/ESS/Scientific and Technical Publishing Services, 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.4095/212662.
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Lawrence, David, Mike Tercek, Amber Runyon et Jeneva Wright. Historical and projected climate change for Grand Canyon National Park and surrounding areas. National Park Service, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.36967/2301726.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Globally, anthropogenic climate change is one of the greatest threats to resources in protected areas. This report examines historical and projected climate change across the Greater Grand Canyon Landscape (GGCL), including Grand Canyon National Park. Grand Canyon National Park warmed significantly from 1895-2020 (annual mean increase of 1.89? F/century), with temperatures increasing at a faster rate from 1970-2020 (6.31? F/century). Warming occurred at all elevations and seasons across the GGCL, but rates differed spatially. Average annual total precipitation within Grand Canyon National Park did not change significantly over either period examined (1895-2020; 1970-2020). A variety of changes in the region of Grand Canyon National Park have been detected and attributed, at least in part, to anthropogenic climate change, including reduced soil moisture (and associated drought), reduced Colorado River flow, doubling of the area burned by wildfire across the western United States, reduced regeneration of low-elevation ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir as well as pinyon pine and juniper populations, northward shifts in many bird species distributions and declines of bird species occupancy in the Mojave Desert, and reduced bumble bee species richness and abundance (key pollinators). To help managers understand and plan around a range of plausible future climates, we present two plausible but contrasting climate futures for the Greater Grand Canyon Landscape, characterized at mid-century (2040-2069) and late-century (2070-2099). Examining multiple plausible futures avoids over-optimizing management strategies for a single projected future that may not occur. Overarching patterns that emerged from both climate futures include additional warming (average, as well as extreme temperatures), seasonal increases in extreme precipitation events, fewer freezing days and days with snow, and higher moisture deficit (a correlate with landscape dryness, conditions conducive to fire, and vegetation stress). The selected climate futures differed in terms of 1) the degree of warming, 2) whether winter precipitation increases or decreases, 3) whether annual precipitation increases or stays similar, 4) whether drought conditions increase or decrease, and 5) whether runoff increases or decreases. Runoff is projected to occur earlier under both climate futures and is projected to exhibit a more episodic pattern. Based on a literature review, projected changes to the physical, ecological, and cultural resource domains of the region resulting from anthropogenic climate change include: ? Increasing drought risk and aridification ? Reduced Colorado River flow ? Reduced groundwater infiltration ? Decreasing runoff (from snow or rain) in the spring, summer, and fall, and increasing runoff in the winter ? Increasing occurrence of large fires ? Increasing invasive grasses in the Mojave Desert ecosystems west of the park, providing more fuel for wildfire ? Exacerbated post-fire erosion and sediment in Grand Canyon watersheds ? Increased episodes of drought-induced tree mortality ? Upslope shifts of the elevational zones of pinyon-juniper woodland, ponderosa pine forest, and spruce-fir forest, as well as increases in non-forest areas and aboveground biomass declines ? Reduced abundance of riparian vegetation that tolerates water inundation ? Increasing invasive plant distribution and abundance, favoring their establishment and productivity ? Colonization of the GGCL by some bird species and extirpation of others ? Increasing non-native fish populations relative to native fishes ? Declining butterfly populations ? Increasing temperatures will increase visitation, especially during winter and shoulder seasons ? Exacerbation of existing threats to archeological resources, cultural landscapes, and historic structures, as well as emergent vulnerabilities related to climate change One goal of this work is to support the Resource Stewardship Strategy (RSS) process that Grand Canyon National Park plans to undertake. We anticipate that connecting the climate changes described here to the climate sensitivities of resources within the park will play a critical role in setting goals and strategies during development of the RSS, as well as proactively adapting to anticipated changes.
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Duffy, Katie, Kelly De Bruin, Loïc Henry, Clement Kyei, Anne Nolan et Brendan Walsh. Health impacts of climate change and mitigation policies in Ireland. ESRI, juillet 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.26504/rs188.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Recognition of the need to limit climate change has led countries to sign up to concerted efforts to decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These efforts culminated in the ratification of the Paris Agreement by Ireland and 196 other countries in 2015. This agreement, and the subsequent Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act of 2021, commit Ireland to a GHG emissions reduction goal of at least 55 per cent compared to 1990 levels by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050. These commitments to reduce GHG emissions through various Climate Action Plans will have considerable economic and societal ramifications, including on population health. For EU countries, the health implications of climate change are estimated to be extensive, while climate change may impede the sustainability of healthcare service provision. The changing climate, predicted to intensify, can exacerbate health impacts, especially in vulnerable demographic groups such as children, older people, and individuals with chronic diseases. However, in addition to the direct benefits for health from emission reductions (e.g., from fewer extreme weather events), emission reduction policies may also have co-benefits for health, e.g., the shift to more bicycle-based commuting through increased cycle lanes or the switch to lower meat consumption can help reduce emissions and improve health outcomes. Despite the growing evidence on the link between increasing temperatures, and likely emission reduction target policies, on health, little evidence exists on the health effects of climate change and associated mitigation actions in an Irish context. The aim of this report is to contribute to the understanding of the link between climate change and health by examining the impact of temperature changes on health and healthcare utilisation in Ireland. While there are multiple dimensions of climate change that may affect health (e.g., increasing temperature, increased precipitation, wildfires, etc.), temperature change is considered one of the principal health threats facing Ireland with respect to climate change. First the report undertakes an in-depth review of the literature on the link between temperature change and health, focusing on evidence from other regions with moderate climates that are similar to Ireland. It also provides an overview of the literature that has assessed the health benefits and co-benefits of climate change mitigation action. Second, the report utilises Met Éireann temperature data to develop Irish climate projections based on simulations performed by the Irish Centre for High-End Computing (ICHEC). Next, the research examines the impact of increases in temperature on use of emergency in-patient hospital care in Ireland. Finally, the report also outlines some of the potential health benefits and co-benefits of climate change mitigation actions, in Ireland.
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Hadley, Stanton W., David J. Erickson III et Jose L. Hernandez Figueroa. Modeling U.S. Energy Use Changes with Global Climate Change. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), septembre 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/974607.
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Brandt, Leslie A., Cait Rottler, Wendy S. Gordon, Stacey L. Clark, Lisa O'Donnell, April Rose, Annamarie Rutledge et Emily King. Vulnerability of Austin’s urban forest and natural areas : A report from the Urban Forestry Climate Change Response Framework. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Northern Forests Climate Hub, octobre 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.32747/2020.7204069.ch.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The trees, developed green spaces, and natural areas within the City of Austin’s 400,882 acres will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of urban trees and natural and developed landscapes within the City Austin to a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and illustrated a range of projected future climates. We used this information to inform models of habitat suitability for trees native to the area. Projected shifts in plant hardiness and heat zones were used to understand how less common native species, nonnative species, and cultivars may tolerate future conditions. We also assessed the adaptability of planted and naturally occurring trees to stressors that may not be accounted for in habitat suitability models such as drought, flooding, wind damage, and air pollution. The summary of the contemporary landscape identifies major stressors currently threatening trees and forests in Austin. Major current threats to the region’s urban forest include invasive species, pests and disease, and development. Austin has been warming at a rate of about 0.4°F per decade since measurements began in 1938 and temperature is expected to increase by 5 to 10°F by the end of this century compared to the most recent 30-year average. Both increases in heavy rain events and severe droughts are projected for the future, and the overall balance of precipitation and temperature may shift Austin’s climate to be more similar to the arid Southwest. Species distribution modeling of native trees suggests that suitable habitat may decrease for 14 primarily northern species, and increase for four more southern species. An analysis of tree species vulnerability that combines model projections, shifts in hardiness and heat zones, and adaptive capacity showed that only 3% of the trees estimated to be present in Austin based on the most recent Urban FIA estimate were considered to have low vulnerability in developed areas. Using a panel of local experts, we also assessed the vulnerability of developed and natural areas. All areas were rated as having moderate to moderate-high vulnerability, but the underlying factors driving that vulnerability differed by natural community and between East and West Austin. These projected changes in climate and their associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for urban forest management, including the planting and maintenance of street and park trees, management of natural areas, and long-term planning.
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Abdullah, Hannah, Karim Elgendy et Hanne Knaepen. Climate Resilience in Cities of the EU’s Southern Neighbourhood : Opportunities for the EU Green Deal. The Royal Institute of International Affairs, novembre 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.55317/casc016.
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Cities in the Middle East and North Africa are already suffering the effects of climate change. Weak urban regulation, ineffective climate policies, limited decentralization and insufficient empowerment of local authorities and civil society further decrease urban resilience. Future climate scenarios and projected urban growth threaten the stability of the region; with potential negative knock-on effects on Europe. This CASCADES Spotlight Study examines climate vulnerabilities in urban areas in countries to the south of the EU and the wider Middle East and North Africa region and advocates for systemic approaches to addressing urban climate resilience by strengthening the water-energy-food nexus, as well as other enabling factors such as decentralization. It concludes with recommendations on how the European Green Deal can help cities in the region adapt to climate impacts, based on a water-energy-food nexus approach. Over the past two decades, the European Commission has stepped up its support for urban climate action and resilience. An increasing number of programmes financed under the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) South have addressed urban climate resilience in response to the region’s rapid urbanization and the high climate vulnerability of cities. The number of urban dwellers in the wider Middle East and North Africa region is estimated to reach 527 million in 2050, an increase of 72% compared to 2020. At the same time, climate impacts – including both slow onset changes and sudden disasters – are putting additional stress on urban infrastructure. This stress is aggravated by weak urban regulations that have created unsustainable development trends which undermine the potential benefits of urbanization and adversely affect urban climate resilience. The prevalence of highly centralized administrative systems and incomplete decentralization reforms hamper local capacity building and decision-making, which are prerequisites for effective adaptation and resilience. At the same time, climate impacts – including both slow onset changes and sudden disasters – are putting additional stress on urban infrastructure. This stress is aggravated by weak urban regulations that have created unsustainable development trends which undermine the potential benefits of urbanization and adversely affect urban climate resilience. The prevalence of highly centralized administrative systems and incomplete decentralization reforms hamper local capacity building and decision-making, which are prerequisites for effective adaptation and resilience. The convergence of the region’s harsh climatic conditions with rapid, unsustainable urbanization and the associated socio-economic burdens can exacerbate existing political instability, conflict-induced migration and poverty. These developments could cascade into the EU, altering security, trade and diplomatic relations with the Southern Neighbourhood. The EU’s evolving approach to working with local authorities on urban infrastructure and climate governance is a first step towards addressing the region’s intertwined urban and climate crises. However, this approach is still in the early stages and there is a need to reflect on lessons learned and how urban spaces, climates and governance are evolving in the region. This study suggests that the EU’s overwhelming focus on supporting cities in the region with energy efficiency and the transition to sustainable energy systems is not enough to strengthen urban climate resilience. In cities of the Southern Neighbourhood, which typically struggle with resource management and scarcity, climate resilience will increasingly depend on local capacities to formulate and implement nexus approaches, especially in the water, energy and food sectors. Based on case studies of three small and intermediary urban areas, the study advocates for a systemic approach to addressing urban climate resilience in Southern Neighbourhood cities. Considering the established effectiveness of applying a water-energy-food nexus approach to improving climate resilience, the paper stresses the need for local governments to explore nexus opportunities between the water, energy and food sectors in order to achieve resilient and sustainable urbanism, while also highlighting other enabling factors such as decentralization. It concludes by exploring how future external action around the European Green Deal and its ambitions for systemic transformation could benefit from stepping up cooperation with cities in the Southern Neighbourhood around the water-energy-food nexus.
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Sowa, Patience, Rachel Jordan, Wendi Ralaingita et Benjamin Piper. Higher Grounds : Practical Guidelines for Forging Learning Pathways in Upper Primary Education. RTI Press, mai 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.3768/rtipress.2021.op.0069.2105.
Texte intégralRésumé :
To address chronically low primary school completion rates and the disconnect between learners’ skills at the end of primary school and the skills learners need to thrive in secondary school identified in many low- and middle-income countries, more investment is needed to improve the quality of teaching and learning in upper primary grades. Accordingly, we provide guidelines for improving five components of upper primary education: (1) In-service teacher professional development and pre-service preparation to improve and enhance teacher quality; (2) a focus on mathematics, literacy, and core content-area subjects; (3) assessment for learning; (4) high-quality teaching and learning materials; and (5) positive school climates. We provide foundational guiding principles and recommendations for intervention design and implementation for each component. Additionally, we discuss and propose how to structure and design pre-service teacher preparation and in-service teacher training and ongoing support, fortified by materials design and assessment, to help teachers determine where learners are in developmental progressions, move learners towards mastery, and differentiate and support learners who have fallen behind. We provide additional suggestions for integrating a whole-school climate curriculum, social-emotional learning, and school-related gender-based violence prevention strategies to address the internal and societal changes learners often face as they enter upper primary.
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Ostoja, Steven, Tapan Pathak, Katherine Jarvis-Shean, Mark Battany et George Zhuang. Adapt - On-farm changes in the face of climate change : NRCS Area 3. USDA California Climate Hub, avril 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.32747/2018.7444387.ch.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The agricultural economy is more vulnerable to projected changes in climate in some California counties than in others. This flyer highlights on-farm adaptation strategies to mitigate some of the effects of increased winter temperatures and more frequent summer heatwaves. Projected conditions will put the most strain on heat intolerant crops and crops with high chill requirements. When crops with these characteristics also have a high market value or are grown in large acreage, counties can be at risk for
economic declines. Information on this flyer identifies the most vulnerable counties in California Area 3 for some key, climate-sensitive crops.