Thèses sur le sujet « China Shock »

This thesis aims to study the macroeconomic performance of China. China has been experiencing rapid economic growth and it has been changing gradually from a planned to a market economy since it initiated the well known “open door policy” combined with a “coastal development strategy” in 1978. However, rapid growth has occurred on the background of increasing regional disparity. Meanwhile, unemployment has increased significantly during last two decades, and has become one of the most pressing problems of the Chinese economy today. Moreover, another major challenge facing the Chinese economy is how to deal with various shocks, and to ensure the sustainability and balance of economic growth in the face of the increasing economic uncertainties associated with its deep reform and integration into the world trade and financial system. Based on the above concerns and literature review, this study, firstly, uses an augmented Solow-Swan model of Mankiw, Romer and Weil (1992) to assess the role FDI plays in underlying regional differences in economic growth across Chinese provinces over the reform period 1978-2008. My analysis indicates that the augmented Solow growth model appears to provide a good description of regional growth patterns in China over the period 1978-2008 and the data display conditional convergence. After controlling for FDI and other determinants of growth, provinces that were initially poor tend to grow faster and the evidence in favour of conditional convergence becomes even stronger after splitting the data into subsamples. I then focus on the study of the relationship between unemployment and growth at both national level and regional level in order to find out how unemployment affects China’s economic growth and economic reform progress overall. I find that Okun’s relationship does not hold in China universally and, furthermore, the nature of the observed relationship has changed during the transition progress. I argue that there are hump shaped relationships both between growth and unemployment and between the speed of transition and unemployment in China. The results are consistent with several theoretical and empirical studies in the literature. Finally, structural VAR methodology pioneered by Bayoumi and Eichengreen (1993) is used to identify and decompose supply and demand shocks to two variables, (the log of) output (annual real GDP) and (the log of) prices (annual GDP deflator). I then compute and discuss the correlation of such shocks across provinces and show how it has evolved over the four main sub-periods of China’s history. Moreover, I investigate which factors contribute to economic integration or divergence in the Chinese economy.

Au fur et à mesure de la croissance de l’économie chinoise, et de la progression de l’ouverture et de la réforme chinoise, la culture dans les entreprises à capitaux étrangers en Chine n’est plus homogène. Au contraire, de plus en plus d’employés présentant des divergences culturelles travaillent dans ces entreprises implantées sur le marché chinois. Leurs nationalités, langues, comportements et mentalités sont loin d’être identiques, provoquant inévitablement un clash socioculturel qui est beaucoup plus compliqué qu’avant à l’intérieur des entreprises à capitaux étrangers. D’où des problèmes qui entraînent une conséquence néfaste sur le développement de ces entreprises. En revanche, lorsque l’on parle de ce sujet, ce qui vient dans un premier temps à l’esprit, c’est souvent le choc culturel qui existe entre les Asiatiques et leurs collègues issus de l’Europe ou de l’Amérique du Nord, tout en négligeant qu'il existe également des différences culturelles entre les employés asiatiques eux-mêmes, parfois aussi grandes mais souvent beaucoup moins prises en considération aussi bien par les chercheurs scientifiques que par les professionnels. Les Asiatiques sont souvent considérés de manière très simplifiée par beaucoup de chercheurs des sciences sociales et humaines comme une seule catégorie culturelle dans laquelle les valeurs, façons de penser et comportements entre les peuples sont peu différents. Des termes très flous, comme la « culture orientale », ou la « culture asiatique », se trouvent facilement dans des travaux dans la comparaison culturelle. Malgré des raisons historiques et traditionnelles, comme l’influence forte du confucianisme, il existe quand même une diversité culturelle entre les peuples asiatiques. Et surtout la culture est évolutive et dynamique, ces peuples ne cessent de créer et développer leurs propres valeurs, façons de penser et comportements qui sont tous uniques et différents les uns des autres en fonction des circonstances intérieures et extérieures qui transforment les groupes sociaux. Afin de faire ressortir les différences culturelles entre les employés asiatiques au sein des entreprises à capitaux étrangers implantées sur le marché chinois, d’étudier et d’exploiter la transformation de cette diversité et ses représentations dans le travail, et pour essayer de trouver des perspectives permettant de fournir de l’inspiration et des résolutions par rapport aux problèmes originaires de cette divergence culturelle, nous avons choisi une méthodologie de recherche fondée sur des entretiens semi- directifs en profondeur avec des employés asiatiques de profils différents travaillant dans des entreprises à capitaux étrangers en Chine. Selon les résultats que nous avons obtenus au travers des entretiens, nous avons constaté que les différences culturelles existent non seulement entre les employés chinois et leurs voisins asiatiques, à savoir les employés coréens et japonais, mais également entre les employés chinois et les employés des diasporas chinoises, ainsi qu’entre les employés chinois eux-mêmes. Au travail, ces employés ont et manifestent des comportements et façons de penser divers par rapport à l’esprit collectiviste, à la hiérarchie et en face de l’incertitude. Pour conclure, une idée comme l’établissement d’une identité supranationale asiatique, autrement dit le cosmopolitisme asiatique, et les dangers à éviter, comme le nationalisme qui existe depuis longtemps en Asie, sont discutés dans la partie de conclusion
With the growth of the Chinese economy, its opening-up and its reform, culture in the foreign-invested enterprises in China is no longer homogeneous. On the contrary, more and more culturally different people work together in these enterprises operating on the Chinese market. Their nationalities, languages, behaviors and attitudes are far from being identical, causing an inevitable socio-cultural clash which is much more complicated than before within these foreign-invested enterprises. Hence the emergence of problems that lead to adverse consequences for the development of these enterprises.On the other hand, when talking about this, what first comes to mind, is often the cultural clash between Asians and their colleagues from Europe or North America, neglecting, at the same time that there are also cultural differences between Asian employees themselves, which are sometimes equally marked but often much less taken into consideration both by scientific researchers and by professionals.Asians are often considered by many researchers in social sciences, in a very simplified way, as a single category in which cultural values, ways of thinking and behaviors between people are very similar. Some vague terms such as "Oriental culture", or "Asian culture", are easily found in cultural comparison researches. Despite historical and traditional reasons, such as the strong influence of Confucianism, there is still a cultural diversity among Asian people. What’s more, culture is evolving in a dynamic way and these Asian people continue to create and develop, depending on the circumstances that transform internal and external social groups, their own values, ways of thinking and behaviors which are unique and different from one another. To highlight the cultural differences between Asian employees in the foreign-invested enterprises established in the Chinese market, to explore the transformation of this diversity and its representations in the working field, and to try to find prospects allowing to provide inspiration and resolutions to the problems originating from this cultural divergence, we chose a research methodology based on thorough semi-structured interviews with different profiles of Asian employees working in different foreign-invested enterprises in China.According to the results we obtained through these interviews, we found that cultural differences exist not only between Chinese employees and their Asian neighbors, in other words the Korean and Japanese employees, but also between Chinese employees and overseas Chinese employees, and even among Chinese employees themselves. When they are working together, these employees have and show different behaviors and ways of thinking in the field of collectivist mind, hierarchy and when facing uncertainty.In our conclusion, we question the idea of setting up a supranational Asian identity, in other words an Asian cosmopolitanism, and we mention the dangers which have to be avoided, such as the nationalism that has been existing in Asia for a long time

Allt fler svenskar är utlandsstationerade i Kina (Sveriges Ambassad 2008) och att anpassa sig till den kinesiska kulturen kan vara påfrestande för en utlandstjänstgörande. Problematiken kring kulturanpassning har lett till att olika teorier testats och utvecklats (Black & Mendenhall 1991). En av de modeller som tagits fram är U-kurvan som beskriver individens anpassningsprocess genom faserna kulturchock och kulturanpassning (Zapf 1991). Individuella faktorer, som exempelvis språkkunskaper och kulturell erfarenhet har varit centrala inom forskningsområdet (Earley & Mosakowski 2004, Shay & Baack 2004) och denna studie undersöker därför företagsrelaterade faktorer då en utlandstjänstgörandes förmåga att utföra sina arbetsuppgifter påverkas av hur pass anpassad individen är till kulturen (Aycan 1997, Jun m. fl. 2001). Syftet med denna uppsats är därför att ta reda på hur en svensk utlandstjänstgörandes anpassningsprocess till den kinesiska kulturen påverkas av faktorerna företagsstorlek, bransch och verksamhetstid i Kina.

Materialet till undersökningen har huvudsakligen samlats in genom webbenkäter som skickats ut till utlandstjänstgörande svenskar i Kina. Resultaten visar att det är branschen i vilken den utlandstjänstgörandes företag verkar som har högst påverkan på en utlandstjänstgörandes anpassningsprocess. Undersökningen visade även att utlandstjänstgörande i företag med mindre än 50 anställda i detaljindustrin som etablerade sig i Kina under 1990-talet var bäst anpassade till den kinesiska kulturen. Då resultaten från studien presenterades i diagram framgick att i två fall av tre var den bästa anpassningsprocessen den som mest liknade en U-kurva vilket tyder på att den bästa anpassningsprocessen är den då en utlandstjänstgörande går igenom faserna på ett balanserat sätt. Detta är dock ingen slutsats som kan dras av undersökningen eftersom resultaten inte gällde för alla faktorer.

The numbers of Swedish expatriates in China are increasing (Swedish Embassy 2008) and adaption to the Chinese culture can be demanding for an individual. The complexity of cultural adjustments has led to different theories being tested and developed (Black & Mendenhall 1991). One of the models that have been developed is the U-curve, which describes the process of individual adaption through the two phase's culture shock and cultural adaption (Zapf 1991). Factors related to the individual, such as language skills and cultural experience have been central in research of cultural adaption and this study therefore examines company related factors because an individual's ability to perform his/her work tasks is affected by the individual's adjustment to the culture (Aycan 1997, Jun et al. 2001). The purpose of this study is therefore to verify how a Swedish expatriate's process of adaption to the Chinese culture is affected by the company related factors firm size, industry and time of operation in China.

The data of the study has mainly been collected by web surveys which were sent to Swedish expatriates in China. The results show that the industry has the largest influence on the adaption process. The study also showed that expatriates in companies with less than 50 employees in the retail- and manufacturing industry which were established in China during the 1990s, were the ones that were the most adjusted. When the results were presented as diagrams it showed that the best adaption process was the one that most reminded of a U-curve which indicates that the best adaption process occurs when the expatriate passes the phases in balance. However, this is not a conclusion that can be drawn from this study since these results are not valid for all the factors.

China’s rise and Russia’s fall shape today’s global political economy. This new great divergence originates from the different policies pursued in the transition from a command economy. Russia applied a ‘big-bang’ doctrine with rapid price liberalisation at its core. In contrast, a policy of experimentalist gradualism manifested in the dual track price system (DTPS) laid the foundations for China’s economic success. But the Chinese reform approach was highly contested in the 1980s and China came close to implementing a big bang. My dissertation sheds light on this critical crossroads by asking on what intellectual grounds China escaped a big bang in price reform; or to turn the question positively, on what intellectual grounds the DTPS was defended against the plans to implement a big bang. To derive an answer, the first part presents the broad historical and theoretical context of the 1980s Chinese price reform debate. In particular, I analyse the ancient Chinese tradition of price regulation, the US price control experience and controversies during and after the Second World War, and the Chinese Communists’ price policies in the Maoist period. Against this background, the second part conducts an in-depth study of the 1980s price reform debate drawing on more than 50 interviews with Chinese and foreign economists, previously unexplored archival evidence and a wealth of Chinese sources. I show that the DTPS emerged from bureaucratic practices and was justified by large-scale empirical research efforts conducted by young intellectuals, who had gained influence through their contribution to rural reform. In contrast, I find that the big bang reform approach was introduced to China by Eastern European émigré scholars and Western economists, and was promoted by a group of Chinese academic economists. I demonstrate how the DTPS was grounded in a pragmatic philosophy of economic policy-making deeply rooted in China’s bureaucratic tradition, which prevailed over the idealist stance underlying the panacea of a big bang.

The work in chapter 1 exploits the timing and public circulation of budget forecasts in Italian municipalities in order to produce empirical evidence of strategic behaviour by mayors on their promised investments. In particular, using a province fixed-effects model, mayors are shown to over-promise investments in election years by 20% more than over the rest of the term. The results are driven by mayors who are not term-limited, and also by those unaffiliated to national parties and with greater levels of education, in line with previous evidence produced over political budget cycles. Moreover, mayors who over-promise more in election years are those who engage in higher pre-electoral increases in investments, thus creating a bridge between traditional po- litical budget cycle and this strategic behaviour. Lastly, I present some suggestive evidence of a positive effect of the strategic behaviour on the probability of re-running and of being re-elected. There has been a recent surge of interest in the link between globalization and the political repercussions caused by increased exposure to low-cost import competition, which has found it to cause increased political polarization and a surge in vote for radical right-wing parties. The second chapter focuses on Italy, which is an interesting case study given its highly-exposed economy, and its multi-party system which includes radical right- and left-wing parties and also populist movements. In order to investigate the political effects caused by the trade shock de- termined by China's exogenous growth in productivity I construct an exhaustive database on the period between 1994 to 2016 and find that, in contrast to the related literature, there is no causal positive effect on the support for radical parties, nor is the rise in populist politics caused by increased exposure to the Chinese trade shock.

The rural landscape of the People's Republic of China has changed dramatically from land collectivization in the 1950s to the decollectivization reforms initiated by Deng Xiaoping in 1979. By the mid-1980s each rural household had again become responsible for its own agricultural production, and food security began to improve, even within the most remote areas. To further this agrarian transition, in the late 1990s the central state devised the Western Development Strategy to advance its 'less developed' western regions, within which provincial governments subsidized cash crops. The aim of this thesis is first to examine the importance of cash crops and related subsidies for Han and minority nationality farmer households in Honghe Hani-Yi Autonomous Prefecture, Yunnan, China; second, to assess how extreme weather events affect these farmers' livelihoods and to investigate the coping mechanisms they employ. To answer this aim I draw on a conceptual framework that incorporates key elements from sustainable livelihoods, food security, and vulnerability and resilience to climate variability literatures. Focusing on four townships in Honghe Prefecture, southeast Yunnan, I completed statistical analyses of quantitative data regarding recent extreme weather events in the region and ethnographic fieldwork, including conversational interviews with farmers and semi-structured interviews with local officials completed in summer 2011. I find that state-sponsored cash crops do not always bring higher financial capital rewards and that cash crop farmers have been increasingly exposed to extreme precipitation and temperatures since the year 2000, which constrain their access to livelihood capitals, essential for (re)investing in cash cropping. In turn, farmers cope with and/or adapt to climate shocks according to their initial livelihood decision-making and the specifics of the event, while also being influenced by their location and ethnicity. In sum, I argue that farmers' vulnerability is rooted in social, temporal and spatial variables, many of which are not being considered by state officials.
Le paysage rural de la République Populaire de Chine s'est considérablement transformé depuis la collectivisation dans les années 50 jusqu'aux réformes de dé-collectivisation instauré par Deng Xiaoping en 1979. Au milieu des années 80, chaque ménage rural est redevenu responsable de sa propre production agricole et la sécurité alimentaire semble s'être améliorée, même dans les régions les plus reculées. Pour intensifier la transition agraire et le développement rural, l'état a commencé à la fin des années 90 à subventionner les cultures commerciales au niveau provincial, à travers sa « Stratégie de développement de l'ouest du pays ». L'objectif de ce mémoire est premièrement d'examiner l'importance des cultures commerciales subventionnées par l'état pour les agriculteurs, particulièrement issus des minorités ethniques (Yi, Hmong, Yao, et Zhuang) et de la majorité Han dans la Préfecture de Honghe, Yunnan; et deuxièmement d'évaluer les effets des phénomènes climatiques extrêmes sur leurs moyens d'existence et d'étudier les mécanismes de survie auxquels ils ont recours. Pour remplir cet objectif, j'utilise un cadre théorique incorporant les éléments clés des littératures sur les moyens d'existence durables, la sécurité alimentaire, ainsi que la vulnérabilité et la résilience à la variabilité du climat. Mes méthodes comprennent une analyse statistique des données quantitatives des récents phénomènes climatiques extrêmes dans la région et un travail ethnographique dans quatre cantons de la Préfecture de Honghe, notamment des entrevues non structurées avec les agriculteurs et semi-structurées avec les cadres locaux au cours de l'été 2011. Je constate que les cultures commerciales subventionnées par l'état ne s'accompagnent pas toujours d'une amélioration du capital financier des agriculteurs et que ces cultures sont de plus en plus exposées à de fortes précipitations et d'extrêmes températures, qui réduisent l'accès aux capitaux de subsistance, nécessaire au réinvestissement dans les cultures commerciales. Par conséquent, les agriculteurs développent des stratégies de survie et/ou d'adaptation selon leurs moyens d'existence choisis et le type de phénomènes climatiques, mais sont également affectés par leur emplacement et leur ethnicité. En somme, je remarque que l'accès des agriculteurs aux ressources est essentiellement fonction de trois variables : sociale, temporelle et spatiale ; celles-ci souvent ignorées par les cadres gouvernementaux.

Several reviews have shown that health problems are the single most common adverse event experienced by households in many low- and middle-income countries. There is a great deal of research documenting household health expenditure and its impact on poverty. However, evidence on the costs incurred by households outside of the health care system is at best scattered. The objective of this present study is to document the household response to illness in China using two large-scale panel household surveys and following a 'health shocks' approach. Health shocks are used to address endogeneity concerns associated with the use of alternative traditional health measures. In this manuscript, the impact of health shocks on household socio-economic status and welfare is analysed using a framework encompassing household income, medical expenditure, consumption patterns, coping strategies, and labour force supply. We find that health shocks lead to a significant increase in medical expenditure (significant for all types of shocks), and in the case of a health shock experienced by a household head, to a decrease in income ranging around five per cent of the total household income. This decrease in income is partly explained by a statistically significant reduction in labour force supply (work hours and labour force participation) from individuals who experienced a shock (larger for women and elderly). In addition, for rural-to-urban migrant workers, health shocks are associated with a higher probability of returning. However, spouses also increase their labour force supply in response, which helps avoiding large shortfalls in income. Significant coping strategies include increase in debts and remittances; and in some cases, sale of assets. On consumption, households are mostly able to maintain consumption levels following the occurrence of a health shock (with the exception of food consumption). Nonetheless, we find a significant large negative trailing impact on consumption in subsequent years. This is in line with the literature arguing that households are risk adverse and deploy ineffective coping strategies to avoid immediate shortfalls in consumption, which generate delayed costs in the long run. The results of the analyses carried out in this thesis highlight some of the potential channels of impoverishment due to health shocks, which might be of interest for policy makers, especially in China where a large-scale health system reform is currently taking place.

This thesis studies the effects of import competition from China and Eastern Europe on the health and fertility decisions of German individuals working in manufacturing. Individuals are matched with separate measures of exposure to competition from China and Eastern Europe, respectively. To isolate exogenous supply shocks from the origin, instrumental variables for competition from each of China and Eastern Europe are constructed. Results in Chapter 1 suggest that higher import competition worsens individual health via job displacement, wage decline, shortened employment duration, increased reliance on welfare and less future orientation, with Chinese import competition affecting individuals twice as much. Health declines as individuals increase their visits to the doctor, exercise less frequently and have a higher probability of developing chronic illness. Also, there is some evidence that individuals do not tend to become disabled but may be slowly pushed into chronic illness. Findings in Chapter 2 show that import competition negatively affects the individual’s probability of having children via reduced earnings, lower satisfaction with personal income and shortened employment duration. The chapter then investigates effects of import exposure by gender. Results show that male and female fertility choices differ upon rising import competition. Higher import exposure lowers female earnings and job autonomy, which in turn generates a lower opportunity cost of work, to the point where having children would become a more rewarding alternative for female workers. By contrast, increased import exposure negatively affects male workers’ fertility through reduced earnings and employment duration.

In the labor market, workers can increase their chances of meeting potential employers through costly search. My first chapter aims to empirically quantify the search intensity of workers, both employed and unemployed. My second chapter develops a theoretical model to study the optimal unemployment insurance with search intensity endogenously chosen by unemployed workers. I devote my third chapter to empirical identification of whether major illness leads to persistent household poverty in rural China. My first chapter studies the search behaviors both on and off the job, and the effect of search intensity on wage determination. Four determinants of wages are considered: productivity, workers’ bargaining power, competition between employers due to on-the-job search, and search intensity. I estimate the structural model using the 2001 panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), together with supplementary information from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS). The empirical results demonstrate that search intensity declines as the worker gets a wage rise from her current job. My second chapter addresses the efficiency issues arising from the externalities and hidden-action features of search effort. The solution to the social planner’s problem may not be decentralized in a competitive market. Calibration shows that the current US unemployment insurance (UI) system generates an 8.07% welfare loss relative to the socially optimal allocation. In the third chapter, I use a unique dataset on Chinese rural households to test whether severe illness can cripple a rural household’s economic resources leading to temporary and/or persistent poverty. When health shocks are assumed to be exogenous, in the sense that households cannot control the arrival rate of adverse health shocks by choosing the amount of medical expenditures, a Markov regime-switching regression model reveals no significant evidence that a severe illness causes persistent household poverty. To endogenize health shocks and choices on medical expenses, a dynamic structural model is employed. The structural estimates support the view that major illness leads to persistent household poverty.
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This paper expands the analysis of the effects of the China shock by assessing its positive effects via access to cheaper inputs and contrasting them with the negative effects through increased import competition in the output markets. We use longitudinal matched employer-employee data linked with customs firm-level data on outputs and inputs transactions for the 1995-2007 period. We find economically and statistically significant positive effects on employment arising from an increase in imports of inputs from China and non-significant effects on employment arising from an increase in imports of outputs from China. Both ordinary least squares regressions and an instrumental-variable strategy using the change in China’s share of U.S. imports by input and output indicate a positive and significant effect of the China input shock and a non-significant effect of the China output shock. As a placebo, we replicate the analysis for the period before the China shock (1995-2000) finding non-significant impact on Portuguese employment. Regarding firms’ adjustment mechanisms, we find that in response to this shock, firms adapted their temporary employment levels rather than adapting their permanent employment levels.
Esta dissertação expande a análise dos efeitos do choque vindo da China ao avaliar os seus efeitos positivos através do acesso a inputs mais baratos, fazendo a comparação com os efeitos negativos provenientes de um aumento na competição, a nível de importação, no mercado de outputs. Utilizamos dados longitudinais de empregador-empregado, junto com dados alfandegários a nível da firma, referentes a transações de outputs e inputs para 1995 a 2007. Encontramos efeitos positivos e (económica e estatisticamente) significativos do aumento das importações de inputs da China no emprego em Portugal e efeitos não significativos do aumento das importações de outputs da China. Quer as regressões em Minimos Quadrados Ordinarios, quer com varáveis instrumentais usando a alteração do peso das importações da China de inputs e outputs nos Estados Unidos indicam efeitos positivos do Choque da China via inputs e não significativos do Choque da China via outputs. Como placebo replicamos a analise para o período anterior ao Choque da China (1995-2000) encontrando um impacto não significativo no emprego. No que toca aos mecanismos de ajuste das empresas, os resultados sugerem que como resposta a este Choque, as empresas adaptaram os seus níveis de empregabilidade temporários em vez de adaptarem os seus níveis de empregabilidade permanentes.

碩士
國立彰化師範大學
工業教育與技術學系
104
The purpose of this research is to investigate the culture difference, culture shock and study retention of students from China in the one of university of Taiwan. The Hofstede framework has been adapted to analyze culture difference between students of Taiwan and China through reviewing previous literature and previous empirical studies. The variables of culture difference, culture shock and study retention are also analyzed further by background variables. A convenience sampling was used for this study. The samples are based on China students of graduate degree and short-term exchange and the Quota sampling selected Taiwanese students in the same university located in the middle of Taiwan. Questionnaires are sent to total 1020 students including450 Chinese and 570 Taiwanese. The dataset was conducted by statistics analysis. The research finding has shown that there is a significant relationship between the Taiwan and China students in terms of culture difference and shock. Culture shock has a negatively relationship on the study retention. The results provided with further policy implications.

碩士
國立清華大學
經濟學系所
106
The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the asymmetric effects of house-price shock on urban residents’ consumption of mainland China. To the ends, we build a bivariate non-linear vector autoregression model developed by Kilian and Vigfusson (2011), using the average house price and per capita consumption of urban residents across mainland China during 2002Q1 to 2018Q1. Also, the results in various cities of different classes will be discussed. We examine the robustness of our results by proposing two assumptions. (1) House-price shock has an immediate impact on consumption; (2) House-prices shock has a lagging effect on consumption. Our findings suggest that there is no significant evidence on the asymmetry of the effects of house-price shock on urban residents’ consumption under two assumptions. In the discussion of the classification of cities, the results suggest that the asymmetric effects of house-price shock on consumption is more likely to be significant in first- and second-tier cities under assumption two.

This paper investigates the role of the global excess liquidity for macroeconomic variables, especially asset prices and external imbalance in China. We estimate structural VAR model and find evidence that the surge in global liquidity has limited effects on China's price level, output and asset prices. By inspecting the structural decomposition, we find that global output and inflation shocks affect domestic macroeconomic fluctuation. Using sign restrictions, we estimate the impacts of three structural shocks in driving the external imbalance and find that the global excess liquidity is a relevant factor while the shock to financial market may be a more important role in explaining the external imbalance than productivity shock.
Sun, Yun.
Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 57-63).
Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web.
Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.1
Chapter 1.1. --- Introduction --- p.2
Chapter 1.2. --- Theoretical background --- p.6
Chapter 2. --- Data and methodology --- p.14
Chapter 2.1. --- Data description --- p.14
Chapter 2.2. --- Methodology --- p.16
Chapter 3. --- Results and Interpretation --- p.21
Chapter 3.1. --- Domestic SVAR results --- p.21
Chapter 3.2. --- A global SVAR analysis for China --- p.35
Chapter 4. --- Three structural shocks and global imbalance --- p.47
Chapter 4.1. --- Sign restrictions analysis --- p.47
Chapter 4.2. --- Empirical Evidence --- p.50
Chapter 5. --- Conclusion --- p.54
Chapter A. --- Data --- p.64

碩士
大葉大學
設計暨藝術學院碩士班
103
The study primarily approaches personal spinal injury. Therefore, my artwork puts emphasis on the concepts of myself and personal impressions of the surroundings. Also, I intend to express personal body perception by creative way. During the process of the creation, I realized the relevance between art therapy and patients and experienced the shifts in people’s mood during the recovery process. I had a much more profound comprehension of Frida Kahlo in the process of exploring her artwork. From her artwork, I found out the resonance between body illness and pain, and took them as the main subject of my work. Key Words :Creation, Art therapy,Fridakahlo

在全球化和改革開放的進程中，中國在各方面巳經取得了長足的進步，另一方面，外來衝擊也更容易侵入。在本文中我們主要關注世界上最大的兩個經濟體，中國和美國，通過貨幣政策所產生的聯繫。我們建立了若干個VAR 模型來分析美國貨幣政策的改變對於中國的影響以及意義。
我們發現，匯率波動是最主要的傳導渠道。基於這一點，文中的分析被劃分為兩個子時間段，以2005 年7 月的匯率改革為分隔點。在兩個時間段中，擴張性的美國貨幣政策衝擊都會引起流入中國的國際資本顯著增加，並以非FDI 的“熱錢"流入為主。在匯率改革之前，這一資本流入主要引起不可貿易品的需求增加，從而其相對價格提高，引起實際匯率升值，而對於經常賬戶和貿易收支的影響較小。相比之下，在匯率改革之後，這一資本流入引起的實際匯率升值主要通過名義匯率的調整來實現。雖然國內通貨膨脹壓力降低， 實際匯率波幅也沒有顯著上升，但是由於名義匯率變化對於出口的傳遞程度較高，貿易收支在短期內會明顯惡化。
為了增強分析的有效性和魯棒性，我們修改了VAR 的結構來觀察這一傳導機制隨著時間的演進。結果證明了最主要的轉折點出現在匯改附近，同時變量之間逐年的動態闕係也證明了以上的結論。
這些結果表明，在名義匯率和經常賬戶的穩定性，以及國內通貨膨脹的穩定性之間，存在著一個權衡關係。雖然對於浮動匯率制是否會帶來更高的實際匯率波動性本文並未發現很強的證據，但是我們觀察到它導致了經常賬戶更加劇烈的波動。在某些情況下，名義匯率升值甚至可以引起短暫的通貨緊縮現象，這在固定匯率制下是不會出現的。因此，邁向浮動匯率制的副作用不可被完全忽略，其中隱含的風險也在一定程度上說明了“浮動恐懼"這一普遍現象的合理性。
On the transition path to a more globalized and open economy, China has witnessed a great progress in many aspects; meanwhile, external shocks are more likely to invade. In this work we focus on the connection between two largest economies, China and the US, through the channel of monetary policy innovations. Several structural VAR models are developed to analyze what a change in monetary policy stance of US implies for the Chinese economy and why this is important.
The principal transmission channel is through adjustment in exchange rates. We divide our analysis into two sub-periods based on the exchange rate reform in July 2005. Across both periods following an expansionary US monetary policy shock there is a burst of capital inflows concentrated within the first year that are dominated by non-FDI inflows, i.e., “hot money“. Before the exchange rate reform, these capital inflows lead to a rise in the demand for non-tradable goods, driving up their relative price, thereby achieving a real exchange rate appreciation. The effect on trade balance is relatively small.
Comparatively, after the exchange rate reform, real exchange rate appreciates due to the surge of capital inflows more through changes in nominal exchange rate. The inflationary pressure is alleviated significantly, and the short-run volatility of real exchange rate slightly increases. However, the pass-through of nominal exchange rate changes into exports is much higher, resulting in a short-run deterioration in trade balance severely.
To verify the validity and enhance the robustness of our analysis, we revise the identifying VARs to investigate the evolution of transmission over time. We show that the most significant turning point of the transmission channel coincides with the exchange rate reform, and comparison among dynamics of variables on a year-by-year basis confirms the previous conclusions.
It seems that there is a trade-off between the stability of nominal exchange rate and the current account, on the one hand, and the stabilization of inflation, on the other hand. Although we find only weak evidence that a more free-floating nominal exchange rate will lead to higher volatility in the real exchange rate, it may introduce higher short-run volatility in the current account. In some cases the appreciation in nominal exchange rate even generates a transitory deflationary effect that is absent under the pegged system. Therefore, the side effects of stepping toward a flexible exchange rate regime must be considered; the potential risk it involves justifies the “fear of floating“ to some extent.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Yang, Minmin.
Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 101-110).
Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web.
Abstract also in Chinese.
Abstract --- p.i
Acknowledgement --- p.v
Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1
Chapter 1.1 --- Motivation --- p.1
Chapter 1.2 --- Contributions and Major Findings --- p.5
Chapter 1.3 --- Organization of the Thesis --- p.7
Chapter 2 --- Literature Review --- p.9
Chapter 2.1 --- Open Economy Theories --- p.9
Chapter 2.2 --- Empirical Research on International Transmission --- p.13
Chapter 2.3 --- China as an Open Economy --- p.15
Chapter 3 --- Theory --- p.18
Chapter 3.1 --- Traditional Theory --- p.18
Chapter 3.1.1 --- Transmission under Fixed Exchange Rate Regime --- p.19
Chapter 3.1.2 --- Transmission under Flexible Exchange Rate Regime --- p.25
Chapter 3.2 --- Specific Issues in China --- p.27
Chapter 3.2.1 --- Capital Control --- p.28
Chapter 3.2.2 --- Sterilization --- p.29
Chapter 3.2.3 --- Pass-through of Nominal Exchange Rate to Trade --- p.30
Chapter 3.3 --- Summary --- p.36
Chapter 4 --- Data and Methodology --- p.38
Chapter 4.1 --- Vector Autoregression --- p.38
Chapter 4.2 --- VARs models for the transmission of US monetary policy shocks to China --- p.41
Chapter 4.2.1 --- Benchmark VAR to IdentifyMonetary Policy Shocks in the US --- p.41
Chapter 4.2.2 --- Extend the Benchmark VAR to Include Chinese Variables --- p.45
Chapter 4.3 --- Data --- p.50
Chapter 5 --- Empirical Results --- p.57
Chapter 5.1 --- Overview --- p.57
Chapter 5.2 --- Transmission before the Exchange Rate reform --- p.59
Chapter 5.2.1 --- Capital Inflows --- p.59
Chapter 5.2.2 --- Exchange Rates and Prices --- p.62
Chapter 5.2.3 --- Trade and the Current Account --- p.64
Chapter 5.3 --- Transmission after the Exchange Rate Reform --- p.66
Chapter 5.3.1 --- Capital Inflows --- p.67
Chapter 5.3.2 --- Exchange Rates and Prices --- p.67
Chapter 5.3.3 --- Trade and the Current Account --- p.69
Chapter 5.4 --- Specific Issues in China --- p.70
Chapter 5.4.1 --- Capital Control --- p.71
Chapter 5.4.2 --- Sterilization --- p.71
Chapter 5.4.3 --- Pass-through of Nominal Exchange Rate to Trade --- p.72
Chapter 5.5 --- Summary --- p.77
Chapter 6 --- Robustness: Structural Break in the Transmission --- p.79
Chapter 6.1 --- Methodology --- p.80
Chapter 6.2 --- Empirical Results --- p.87
Chapter 6.3 --- Summary --- p.91
Chapter 7 --- Conclusion and Future Work --- p.92
Bibliography --- p.101

Wong, Chun Ming.
Thesis M.Phil. Chinese University of Hong Kong 2015.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 68-72).
Abstracts also in Chinese.
Title from PDF title page (viewed on 14, November, 2016).

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of political cooperation and conflict between countries on international trade in the context of China's rapid emergence as a global economic and trading power. The study develops a game-theoretical framework in which a bi-directional relationship exists between trade and conflict. The theoretical framework is used as a basis to identify the short- and long-term effects of moderate shocks in political conflict on merchandise goods trade between China and major trading partners between 1998-2018 using vector-auto-regression (VAR) models. The analysis is complemented by an examination of the effects of political shocks on trade disaggregated by product-type. The results suggest that although trade ties are not independent of conflict, they have not been affected by conflict significantly in this period, and the effects of political conflict on trade vary by product-type. The maintenance of a combination of healthy trade and low levels of conflict requires continued rules-based engagement between China and its trading partners to mitigate the extent to which political conflict has spill over consequences on trade ties.

This thesis is a collection of five self contained empirical macroeconomic papers on the asymmetric effects of energy price shocks on various economies. Chapter 1 formally determines the number of regime changes in the US natural gas market by employing a MS-VAR model. Estimated using Bayesian methods, three regimes are identified for the period 1980 - 2016, namely, before the Decontrol Act, after the Decontrol Act and the Recession. The results show that the natural gas market tends to be much more sensitive to market fundamental shocks occurring in a Recession regime than in the other regimes. Augmenting the model by incorporating the price of crude oil, the results reveal that the impacts of oil price shocks on natural gas prices are relatively small. Chapter 2 provides new empirical evidence on the asymmetric reactions of the U.S. natural gas market and the U.S. economy to its market fundamental shocks in different phases of the business cycle. To this end, we employ a ST-VAR model to capture the asymmetric responses depending on economic conditions. Our results indicate that in contrast to the prediction made by a linear VAR model, the STVAR model provides a plausible explanation to the behavior of the U.S. natural gas market, which asymmetrically reacts in bad times and good times. Chapter 3 examines the relationship between China's economic growth and global oil market fluctuations between 1992Q1 and 2015Q3. We find that: (1) the time varying parameter VAR with stochastic volatility provides a better fit as compared to it's constant counterparts; (2) the impacts of intertemporal global oil price shocks on China's output are often small and temporary in nature; (3) oil supply and specific oil demand shocks generally produce negative movements in China's GDP growth whilst oil demand shocks tend to have positive effects; (4) domestic output shocks have no significant impact on price or quantity movements within the global oil market. Chapter 4 examines the effects of world energy price shocks on China's macroeconomy. We propose a new index of primary commodity energy prices which accurately reflects both the structure of China's energy expenditure shares, as well as intertemporal fluctuations in international energy prices. The index is then in employed a sufficiently rich set of time varying BVARs, identified by a new set of agnostic sign restrictions. Uniformly sized positive energy price shocks are shown to consistently generate economic stagflation over the past two decades. Chapter 5 compares the macroeconomic effects of global oil and iron ore price shocks on the Australian economy. The main results suggest that, over the period 1990Q1 to 2014Q4, the oil shock has a relative larger impact than that of the iron ore shock on output and inflation while the iron ore shock is the dominant source of interest and exchange rate movements. The effects crucially depend on the underlying sources of oil or iron ore price shifts.