Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Business education – Norway »

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to determine whether the type of mathematics skills developed at secondary school an effect on students’ later success in business studies. At many business schools in Norway, more students are applying than there are places available. The ranking of applications depends on the grade point average (GPA) level, irrespective of the level or type of mathematics studied at secondary school, where the students are free to choose practically orientated or theoretical mathematics. Design/methodology/approach A quantitative analysis (regression model) was applied using data for undergraduate students enrolled in business studies over a three–year period (2012–2014). Findings Students with a non-theoretical background in mathematics obtain systematically lower grades on many courses, especially in core business school subjects. Ranking applicants to business studies courses based on their GPA scores irrespective of their level of mathematics may lead to the admission of less able students. Research limitations/implications There is little information available concerning why students choose different paths in mathematics at upper secondary school, but the decision students make has an influence on their grades in business courses. Originality/value By requiring more knowledge of theoretical mathematics, students’ performance at business school will improve. Changing the admission criteria could improve the quality of graduates and reduce the dropout rate.

Purpose – The purpose of the present empirical study is to investigate the relationship between education in entrepreneurship and entrepreneurial behaviour and compare the effectiveness of frequently used entrepreneurship education teaching approaches. Design/methodology/approach – Hypotheses are derived from the “Theory of Planned Behaviour” (“TPB”), which suggests that education in entrepreneurship is positively related to attitude (“A”), subjective norm (“SN”) and perceived behavioural control (“PBC”); that the effect on A, SN and PBC is stronger for extensive courses in entrepreneurship than for more superficial forms of educational efforts; and that education only influences entrepreneurial intentions indirectly through the effect on A, SN and PBC. The hypotheses are tested using data from two different surveys, one from Belgium and one from Norway. Findings – None of the hypotheses are supported. However, the findings from the study indicate a strong direct relationship between participation in extensive education programmes in entrepreneurship and entrepreneurial intention. Research limitations/implications – Additional empirical evidence would be required to confirm these results and help to improve our understanding of the validity bounds of the TPB in the field of entrepreneurship. Practical implications – The findings indicate that educational programs or events of limited duration have a rather limited usefulness and that efforts should rather be directed on programs of longer duration. This would, for instance, speak for a re-orientation of some policies like those financing short seminars on venture creation for unemployed people. Originality/value – Using data from two different surveys, one from Belgium and one from Norway, this study raises questions about the sufficiency of the TPB.

Many students attend business and economics studies in Norway. Several skilled students with engineering background choose specialization in economics and business administration. This education provides many opportunities. The aim of this paper is to learn more about what these students emphasize in choice of jobs and career opportunities. This article provides support for the assumption that gender and personality traits (the Big Five) are linked to salary and career opportunities for business and economics students. Personal characteristics matter in students’ consideration of career possibilities, future wages, entrepreneurship, and contributions to society. Financial rewards are positively connected to the personality trait conscientiousness and negatively to agreeableness. Individuals with high score in the agreeableness want to help others. The trait openness is a good predictor for starting own business. There is still a gender gap. Women are not as concerned with high wages as men. Instead, the female students want to contribute more to society. The suggestions appear from a quasi-experiment involving 119 undergraduates from a university in Norway by asking them about their preferences and attitudes. The selected methods are factor analysis and linear regression modeling. The findings provide useful knowledge and information in the design and development of various study topics.

The unemployment rate in Norway is low. More than 30 per cent work in the public sector and there is a shortage of labour, especially in the health and education sectors. This article seeks to find out more about why some choose to study within health and education and pursue a career there while others put finances or business education as their priority. Which factors influence this choice? Students’ responses to questionnaires reveal that there are some significant differences. The results indicate a trade-off between high salaries and other job benefits. Compared to business and economics students, financial rewards count for less for those selecting public sector work. They accept lower wages in compensation for job security and personal contentment. Other factors that have implications for educational choices are personal characteristics (Big Five) and interests. Furthermore, there is a substantial gap between females selecting business and financial education and females who prefer a personal-oriented job in the public sector. The methods used in this paper are comparison of means (t-test) and standard linear regression.

Today «business-education-science» coopetition is an innovative approach to achieving sustainable development goals on different levels of economy and in various spheres of human life. In particular, there is great potential in the context of the fourth, eighth, and ninth sustainable development goals. That is why the article aims to analyze key trends and empirically prove and formalize the impact of «business-education-science» coopetition on sustainable development. The key directions of multidisciplinary study on «business-education-science» coopetition for sustainable development are determined by bibliometric analysis of 6035 documents for 38 years using the Scopus database tools and VOSviewer software. The obtained results allowed to form 7 clusters of multidisciplinary studies on this issue. A comparative analysis of Ukraine and the top 10 countries' levels of sustainable development, innovation development, and business-education competition were conducted. Besides a dynamic analysis of sustainable and innovation development in Ukraine, a dynamic analysis of business and education coopetition in Ukraine, Finland, Denmark, and Sweden was made for 2012-2021. The sample from the top 10 countries in the Sustainable Development Rating in 2021 (Finland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Austria, Germany, France, Switzerland, Ireland, and Estonia) are formed for 10 past years (2012-2021) to investigate the relationship between the level of «business – education – science» coopetition and the level of sustainable development, in particular the scores of University-Industry Collaboration Indicator and Sustainable Development Index. The Shapiro-Wilk test for normal data and Pearson / Spearman correlation analysis was used at the first stage of empirical confirmation of the hypothesis about the impact of «business – education – science» coopetition on sustainable development. In the second stage, the regression model of system dynamic panel-data estimation (The Arellano–Bover / Blundell–Bond model) is built to formalize and determine this impact. Then Arellano-Bond test for zero autocorrelation in first-differenced errors is made to show that there is no present evidence that the model is misspecified. It is proved that if the level of «business – education – science» coopetition (on the example of the score of the University-Industry Collaboration Indicator) increases by 1%, the level of sustainable development (in particular, the score of the Sustainable Development Index) will increase on 0,04% too. The obtained results could be useful for business, education, science institutions, and governance for further research and strengthening sustainable and innovation development levels.

In the following article a discussion on the use of e-learning in education of convicts is presented. The topic discussed by the Author is connected with the fact that the use of new media in education at present has become a common solution applied also to educate inmates. E-learning is a current form of education andvocational training. It provides improvement of contemporary culture in education applied at penitentiary institutions to educate convicts. E-learning helps and lets prisoners obtain education and to update education differences. As a method of education, it requires users’ autonomy and self-discipline while working with the use of digital platforms. Education must respond to different needs expressed by the evolving knowledge society. It mainly concerns education of people at risk of social exclusion, e.g. convicts. It is related to the need of dealing with and solving problems that pertain to such issues as increasing possibilities of the media in the area of generating, processing and creating information. The aim of the article is also to describe the use of e-learning in European countries such as Sweden, Norway, Poland, Finland and Germany. These countries were selected for the analysis because they appreciate modern technologies in penitentiary work. They change and develop the solutions. The experience in the use of e-learning in penitentiary work with inmates in Sweden, Norway, Poland, Finland and Germany is different. The aim of the article is also to show how modern technology can be applied in working with convicts. E-learning becomes a tool used for preventing exclusion. Development of various technologies makes it possible to support convicts and prison staff members in the process involving correctional activities. Technologies offer a chance to return or to start work, to continue education, to meet the needs of one’s family, to have an active life in accordance with the social principles after leaving prison. E-learning provides people who have been isolated in prison with a real chance to acquire qualifications. Hence, social issues, family interests, individual interests, business and modern technological solutions are combined in the same field. Coherent and efficient activities come as a challenge to those who perform them and to the society; however, these activities support the process of social rehabilitation.

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to describe the background for, the design of, and the implementation of Lesson Study in a teacher education program in Norway. Lesson Study was chosen as an intervention in an attempt to shift pre-service teachers’ focus from themselves to their pupils, attempting to strengthen their possibilities to learn more about the consequences of their instructional decisions for their pupils. Design/methodology/approach – The study used a time-lagged experiment where one group of second year pre-service teachers took part in their three-week field practice as usual (business-as-usual-condition), and one group, the following year, took part in Lesson Study cycles during their three-week field practice period. The students were recruited from four subject areas in both conditions: Math, Physical Education, Science, and English. Findings – The use of Lesson Study created more collaborative inquiry among the pre-service teachers. At its best, the pre-service teachers formulated research questions, took active part in observations, and used data (pupils’ work, interviews and observations) to inform their choices about how to create improved learning for their pupils. Research limitations/implications – The study is a small scale study due to the need to test before upscaling. Practical implications – The paper includes a description of how Lesson Study was implemented in a Teacher Education Department, and this can be valuable information for others who are attempting the same. Originality/value – This paper fulfills an identified need to learn more about pre-service teachers\ learning and lesson study in teacher education.

Defence date: 18 January 2005
Examining Board: Prof. Bo Stråth (European University Institute) - Supervisor ; Prof. Heinz-Gerhard Haupt (European University Institute) ; Prof. Anne-Hilde Nagel (University of Bergen) ; Prof. André Grelon (EHESS, LASMAS-Idl, Paris)
First made available online 09 January 2019

COVID-19, with its evolving concurrent variants, has been disrupting the working environments and every sphere of lives of individuals making the overall management in various field challenging. The first phase of the spread of virus in 2020, which led to complete lockdowns in many countries, had taught many lessons to all the sectors, organizations, and institutions. Though the initial impact of the pandemic largely had a negative impact on individuals and organizations, the following phases, especially with the discovery of multiple anti-COVID vaccines, saw greater and improved adaptability and efficient management among individuals, organizations, as well as international relations. It is evident that this disruption caused by the pandemic is fundamentally different from recessions; this situation requires break from the normal status quo and a new normal needs to be inculcated in various areas. To overcome the challenges posed by the pandemic, individuals and organizations need to be more vigorous and positive in their overall approach towards personal and professional management respectively. This book provides insights on trends and prospects in health, culture, business management, finance, design, architecture, education and technology that have occurred during the pandemic.

Abstract A historical account of the period 2001–2020 is presented by focusing on the shifting connotations of certain political catchphrases and words. These allow for a linked-up narrative covering areas such as politics and policy, business and investing, austerity and inequality, identity, climate change, crowd protests, flexible working, and online education. Key junctures are 9/11, the 2002 dot-com crash and the 2007–2008 financial crisis, the Occupy movements of 2011–2012, China’s economic policy from 2014 onwards, and the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020. Half the book is devoted to the unusually pervasive usage of the catchphrase ‘new normal’. Chapters are also given to ‘we are the 99%’ and the catchwords ‘austerity’ and ‘resilience’. Case studies of these catchphrases and words occupy much of the book. The final chapter makes conceptual inferences and proposes both a theory of political catchphrases and a distinctive approach to contemporary history. The source materials are predominantly from the UK and USA, but refer, naturally, to issues of global moment. The book would be of particular interest to students and researchers in politics and policy studies, contemporary social history, cultural studies and sociology, discourse analysis, and media studies. While following an academic format, it is written in an accessible style and would appeal to all who are alive to the momentous developments that are unfolding at present.

This book is used in a number of universities in Belgium, the Netherlands and on Dutch Caribbean islands. In the course of an international parenting program of different universities in Europe, participants inquired repeatedly about an English version of our book. This edition answers to that question. But how to translate the different meanings of the first part of the Dutch title into proper English? And also in such a way it can be well understood in other European countries as the special focus of this book? Let us take you shortly along our process of decision making, how to translate the above title. The second part of the title is the easiest to translate: A guide for professionals working with parents. Let us be clear from the start: This book is not about helping parents raising their children. About the content later more, but now shortly about the second part of the Dutch title which seems to have much more possibilities for translation. “Do you understand those parents?”, would be a first option. This can be read as an invitation to try and understand parents, parenthood or parenting of a person, a couple or a group. The first title part in the Dutch version often has an association of difficulty how to understand parents. Or even stronger: the underlying connotation of this question of quickly criticizing their actions and even the tendency to blame them. This question we often heard from students, social workers and from members of different professions in multidisciplinary consulting teams. Our question in reaction : “What is your view of these parents?” was very often followed by a rather negative view on their parenting, based on the assumption: “Why don’t they see the needs of their child?” Apparently for a professional it is more common to keep in mind the vulnerability of a child than that of a parent. The challenge for a great number of care workers who meet children and their parents seems obviously: how to be open minded towards parents? Professionally and parent focussed working with parents is, to our opinion, a question of perspective of the professional. We all tend to look at parents firstly from our professional view on the needs of a child, we call that the child-perspective. But parenthood is more than bringing up a child or knowing how to help them in their growth, also called parenting. Although parents themselves also see as their core business: raising and educating their own child, they are also individuals, partners, family members, and a number of other social roles as a member of the society. For that reason we did choose as the main title: “Do you see those parents?” For trying to take their perspective is primarily seeing their normal daily struggle, with their specific circumstances, their personalities, their histories, their beliefs, their doubts and weaknesses and, last but not least, their possibilities. So, this book does not consider the question: “How to help parents to become better educators?” We try to avoid the word parenting and if we do so in this book, we use it in the meaning of educating their child. But once again, that is not the main focus of this book. Trying to help professionals to support parents in their improving of strength in their parenthood is our first goal. Every family has its own culture, and every person is part of more cultures, local, regional, national and even international. Cultural aspects always count, also in parenthood, but discussing them all would result in a very different content of this book. We try to give general support to students and workers of very different professions and in very different countries and cultures. We do not mention those separately, but we focus in this book on aspects of parenthood which are more or less universal, without generalising parenthood in all different countries and cultures. Our experiences in working with parents was mainly in Holland and Western Europe, so our examples are mostly from this cultural background. We use them not as an example for others how to work, of how to treat parents, but to explain our use in practice of the theory on parenthood which inspired us for so many years. We hope that reading about the use of this theory and our experiences with it will offer support and inspiration to a great number of care workers and professionals in very different disciplines in their daily work. And especially for lecturers, teachers and trainers of students and coaches of professionals who work with children and subsequently with parents to help them to improve their professional attitude toward parents.

The Nordic countries—Finland, Denmark, Norway, and Sweden—offer interesting material to investigate gendering processes. In these societies, gender equality policy has long traditions and many propagated goals have been researched: women and men participate in paid work almost to the same extent; women make a significant contribution to family income, because it rests on a dual income model; public, low cost day-care is available to all children over one year of age; women’s level of education is exceeding that of men’s. Yet, the labour market is notoriously segregated both horizontally, meaning that men and women work in different occupations, and vertically meaning that men hold high ranking positions in public and private organisations. The focal phenomenon of this article, entrepreneurship shows even more profound segregation with women and men enterprising in different lines of business and within the same lines of business in different branches (Kovalainen, 1995; Spilling & Berg, 2000). Nordic experience shows that gaining access to men-only spaces does not bring the same prestige, make women equally influential, and powerful as men. Thus, the question remains what are the processes which hinder women entrepreneurs from achieving a significant position? The article offers one possible answer by reporting a study by Pietiläinen (2002) who set out to investigate what kinds of spaces for entrepreneurial action women business owners are offered in the Finnish information and communication technology (ICT) industry.

This chapter examines the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on university business education within the context of a post-pandemic era which has created the “new global normal.” The speed at which a nation's society and economy will recover in the “new global normal” shall largely determine the degree to which business organizations and university business education in different nations reinvent themselves to meet the new global transitions brought on by the pandemic. This will entail being more innovative with products, services, organizational structure, and business modeling than in the past. The chapter suggests university business education focuses on entrepreneurial leadership to combat post-pandemic uncertainty which is a complex situation requiring a delicate “balancing act” between practice and theory that considers its effect on global income inequality to be successful for all societies.

COVID-19 has brought about tremendous changes in all occupations. Education in general and business education, in particular, is no exception. In the normal course, business education entailed students being on the campus as the courses are full-time residential with physical attendance to enable interaction and discussion. With COVID-19 lockdown and restrictions, the usual way of doing business is disrupted. Hence, by adopting systematic literature with grounded approach, the aim of this chapter is to understand the disruptions, faculty, and student difficulties and sketch out the future trends in business education post COVID-19.

VUCA describes today's chaotic, turbulent, and rapidly changing education environment, which is the new educational normal. VUCA; volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity, terms coined for the military world also describes today's education world. As a result, educational leaders face the uncertainty of workforce reductions and budget cuts affecting the process of increasing student performance. In addition, rapid changes in technology are constant and ambiguity reigns as mandates for change increase In today's education world VUCA, the chaotic “new normal” is real. The financial crisis of 2008-2009, for example, rendered many businesses obsolete, and organizations throughout the world were plunged into turbulent economic environments. At the same time, rapid changes marched forward as technological developments like social media exploded, the world's population continued to simultaneously grow and age, and global disasters disrupted lives, economies, and businesses. In the new normal, higher education institutions are caught in a critically demanding and increasing unknown present and future characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity.

Abstract Norway is a rich country endowed with many natural resources including hydropower, oil and gas, wind power, fish, etc. Norway has nowadays a high technological and research based industry. The discovery of the first oil field in 1969 has been the driving force for the Norwegian economy, accounting for nearly 50% of exports and 30% of state revenue. Since then several technology-based industries have been created and developed not only around the oil and gas business, but also in other fields such as the Aluminium production. Thermal Spray has played an important role in the Norwegian industry, where it has been used for more than 40 years in many different applications (corrosion and wear protection in the offshore industry, aeronautical industry, etc). The Norwegian thermal spray producers and users have a long tradition in collaborating and also working with R&D institutes such as SINTEF and Universities (specially the The Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NTNU) in order to develop new and better coatings. Based on this collaboration the Norwegian Thermal Spray Group was established in 1995 and since then it has grown constantly. The members of the group are: Bandak AS, Castolin Services, CerPoTech, GBSGroup, HCStarck, Mantena, Mets AS, Norwegian armed force logistic division (LHK), Powder Tec AS, Scana, SprayService AS, SubseaDesign, Teknologisk Institute, Trio AF, Volvo Aero Norge, SINTEF and the Norwegian University of Science and Technology. The group includes materials suppliers, coating producers, end users, education and certifying, research institutes and Universities. The aim of the group is to develop thermal spray activities in Norway and find new solutions for existing and new challenges in surface protection.

Technology, with its rapid growth and vast impacts on all areas of human life, has increased well-being and facilitated daily tasks in our private life as well as in business and marketing, medical and healthcare services, and education. The global Covid-19 pandemic has shown the importance of Internet and technology to keep businesses running and reduce the problems emerging from social distancing and even saving lives through healthcare systems; likewise, educational systems speeded their technological facilities to run and develop normal educational activities. Although many studies had already acknowledged the necessity of using technology in education, the lack of facilities and knowledge of using technology in educational systems was reported in the beginning of the pandemic. The pandemic pushed educational systems to integrate technology into pedagogy by facilitating information transfer and communication. However, the challenge of enhancing the quality of information is still prevalent. This paper focuses on a bilateral necessity of integration of pedagogy and technology: while the potential of technology in educational systems is widely acknowledged, the practical usage of learning theories and pedagogical principles in designing digital services is far from a completed mission. Many user-experience (UX) studies determine technological, behavioral, social, and motivational factors to promote user-centric design to enhance the quality of content, while limited attention is given to pedagogical factors. We introduce integration of pedagogy into technology as a new paradigm in user-centric design, not only in the educational system but also in a general context. Mishra and Koehler (2006) introduced integration of technology into pedagogy (TP) through the Technological Pedagogical Content (TPACK) framework as required knowledge for teachers. This paper employs the TP concept in a broader context of Technological Pedagogical Content Design (TPCD), which utilizes the pedagogical element in the user-experience based practice to develop a user-centric design approach.

This presentation seeks to uncover if prosocial and pro-environmental outcomes of higher education in business and economics could be associated with business school activities in the field of Responsible Management Education (RME). These could include the teaching of business ethics, Corporate Social Responsibility and related subjects, as well as business school research and different practical ways of involving business schools in showing their commitment to RME. The presentation focuses on the UN PRME (Principles for Responsible Management Education) and how their implementation could support the prosocial and proenvironmental outcomes of higher education in business and economics. Recent and forthcoming research on the prosocial and pro-environmental outcomes of higher education in business and economics is reviewed, and based on the research results, the question of the 'new normal' in (business) ethics is posed: how should business schools frame their RME-related activities in the world, and to what extent are they currently being re-shaped by the challenges of the COVID pandemic and threats to the global, rules-based international order?

Растущая динамика на международных рынках, усиление конкуренции между компаниями и, в следствие, между рабочими кадрами, а также все более успешные позиции электронного рынка с огромными объёмами информации для клиентов в Интернете - основные причины пересмотра ведения не только бизнеса, но и перестройки экономики, а вместе с ней и перестройки подготовки будущих участников рынка. В статье рассматривается трансформация основы всех стран - экономики и образования в эпоху цифровизации. The growing dynamics in international markets, increased competition between companies and, as a result, between workforce, as well as the increasingly successful positions of the electronic market with huge volumes of information for customers on the Internet are the main reasons for the revision of not only business, but also the restructuring of the economy, and along with it, restructuring the preparation of future market participants. The article examines the transformation of the foundation of all countries - the economy and education in the era of digitalization.

Various efforts to prevent the spread of Covid-19 have been carried out, which resulted in the formation of a new normal life order for the community. Some of the adjustments include doing all activities from home, always washing hands, wearing a mask, and keeping a distance. New normal is also closely related to Information Technology (IT), where some activities are carried out through information technology assistance. Work From Home (WFH), online learning, online health consultations, and wedding receptions are conducted through a virtual room. However, in fact, there are still many who have not mastered and understood this, so this research explains the role of information technology, which is so important and quite influential in the fields of economy and business, education, health, religion, and the Internet of Things which is the core of current information technology.

The Masters of Enterprise Programme is a postgraduate programme whereby a student attempts to start a business during the course of their studies. Established in 2001, we have analysed the success of the 59 companies created from the course and found that as expected the start-up rate is higher than the general population. We also found that ratio of male to female founders (70-30) was similar to start-ups from the general population; however, the survival rate of ventures created from the programme was significantly higher. Also, a higher rate of the businesses were employing more than just the founder, implying they are what could be considered “Entrepreneurial” businesses rather than simply someone self- employed as might be normal in some careers. Despite many overseas students completing the course, only 3 of the businesses were founded outside the UK, suggesting the UK economy is benefitting from the ventures created. We also discuss other outcomes from the course such as these entrepreneurial students are often recruited by top corporates. We further discuss what we believe are the contributing pedagogic factors to its success. Keywords: Entrepreneurship and Enterprise Education, Employability, Start-ups, UK economy.

Abstract A novel coordinate system is proposed for the four-dimensional space of scores from the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI), a psychological questionnaire increasingly used in education and business as well as in psycholgical counseling. The new normal orthogonal basis proposed is consistent with the Jungian personality theory upon which the MBTI is based. The immediate motive is to find ways of improving the composition of student design teams.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.