Thèses sur le sujet « Business cycles – Research »

"Différentes façons de conceptualiser les phénomènes cycliques en macroéconomie sont comparées et examinées sur le plan conceptuel. L´auteur explore plus particulièrement l´approche classique, " structuraliste ", monétaire, aussi connue comme " théorie autrichienne " et qui a bénéficié d´un regain d´intérêt de la part de la communauté académique récemment. L´auteur ajoute une dimension institutionnelle en effectuant une comparaison entre différents contextes institutionnels possibles, plus particulièrement par rapport aux tendances qu´ils peuvent manifester vers l´instabilité économique, la perturbation de l´équilibre intertemporel etc. La thèse contient plus particulièrement : un examen critique des arguments pour et contre le système bancaire concurrentiel aux réserves fractionnaires ; commentaire critique concernant une tentative récente d´incorporer certaines notions tirées de la théorie contemporaine du comportement devant le risque dans une théorie du cycle. Une attention particulière est également consacrée à des questions de méthodologie, et plus particulièrement : la légitimité de l´utilisation des notions de probabilité numérique ; la notion adéquate de " fondements microéconomiques " pour une théorie du cycle. "
The dissertation contains a critical examination of different conceptualizations of cyclical phenomena in the macro-economy ; it provides an in-depth exploration of the classical, monetary approach, also know as the Austrian theory of the business cycle, which regained academic respectability recently. The author adds a comparative institutional dimension by comparing different institutional contexts, in particular with respect to the tendencies they may manifest towards economic instability, intertemporal discoordination etc. The thesis further contains : a critical examination of the arguments for and against fractional reserve free banking ; a critical comment about a recent attempt to incorporate notions drawn from the contemporary theory of the behavior towards risk in a theory of the business cycle. Particular attention is also given to methodological questions, such as : the legitimacy of the use of numerical probability concepts ; the quest for adequate micro-foundations for a theory of the business cycle

Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, China has experienced ten business cyclical fluctuations. The economic growth was characterized by erratic ups and downs which lasted for several decades. With the economic reform and opening up to the outside world in 1978 as part of Deng Xiaoping’s market-oriented policy, the Chinese economy grew exponentially and the volatility of the GDP growth rate declined significantly. The macroeconomic control policies in the 1980s prevented large fluctuations in the country’s economic development, and smoothed the output volatility further. This study examines the output volatility in China and our result reveals the standard deviation of quarterly output growth rate has declined dramatically. Using the CUSUM squares test and the Quandt-Andrews breakpoint test to identify unknown structure breaks, we identified two structural breaks: 1994:1 towards destabilization and 1998:1 towards stabilization. We then examine the stochastic process for GDP and the result shows that the decrease in volatility can be traced primarily to a decrease in the standard deviation of output shocks. Following this, we reached two other conclusions. First, there is a strong relationship between movements in output volatility and the movements in inflation volatility. Both output and inflation volatilities increased significantly during the third and fourth quarter of 1994 and both dropped sharply after 1996, which followed a similar path over the period. Second, using the standard decomposition of GDP, the decrease in output volatility can be traced to a decrease in the volatility of consumption, investment, and net export, especially rural consumption expenditure and residential investment.

The successful design, implementation, deployment, and use of mobile software applications is rare. While many mobile apps are developed, few succeed. This design science research project builds and evaluates CrashApp™, a mobile application that connects lawyers and clients before, during, and after car accidents. The effective, widespread use of this app depends on satisfying the needs of three groups of stakeholders – the end-users (clients), the owners (lawyers), and the software developers. The research objective is to investigate the key differences among the three stakeholder groups on evaluation criteria for mobile app success. Evaluation strategies and methods are selected to collect data that measures each group’s satisfaction with the constructed application artefact. Research contributions are the identification of multiple stakeholder groups and the ability to design rich evaluation strategies that provide measures of application success. Practice contributions are the design and development of a useful mobile app that provides needed services to the client and effective client connections for the law firm to interact with the clients. The project produced an instantiation of the design artefact CrashApp™ mobile application, which was evaluated with a naturalistic evaluation approach, including the following methods and techniques: focus groups, focused surveys, usability surveys, and real life tests and assessments.

El objetivo principal de la investigación emprendida en la presente tesis doctoral es elaborar una técnica de construcción de un indicador económico compuesto o un conjunto de dichos indicadores que, correspondiendo al concepto teorético del ciclo económico (comercial), permitirán detectar y predecir los puntos de giro del ciclo económico.
Como el punto de partida hemos escogido la definición del ciclo económico propuesta por Burns y Mitchell (1946). Según nuestra opinión, el analisis dinámico factorial es el método idóneo para captar los puntos de giro del ciclo económico en el sentido de Burns y Mitchell. Por un lado, tiene en cuenta los movimientos comunes de varias series macroeconómicas que bajan y suben simultaneamente durante las fases de recesiones y expansiones, respectivamente. Por otro lado, refleja las asimetrías que existen entre las dos fases cíclicas, como, por ejemplo, las tasas de crecimiento y la volatilidad distintas durante las recesiones y expansiones. Ambos rasgos estan subrayados por Burns y Mitchell como características definitivas del ciclo económico.
El análisis dinámico factorial en su estado actual exige sin duda ciertas modificaciones y algunas extensiones para obtener las estimaciones insesgadas y consistentes de los indicadores económicos compuestos y para utilizar la información disponible de la mejor manera posible.
Nuestra investigación está dirigida, en primer lugar, hacia los economistas prácticos que han optado por utilizar el análisis dinámico factorial para la construcción del indicador del ciclo económico tanto a nivél regional como nacional.
La tesis esta compuesta por cinco capítulos donde el primer y el último capítulos son, respectivamente, la introducción y la conclusión. En ellos se exponen los objetivos del estudio y los resultados alcanzados en el curso de la investigación.
En el capítulo dos describimos varios metodos de análisis de las fluctuaciones económicas que han sido propuestos durante los últimos 20 años. Por un lado, consideramos los modelos con la dinámica nolineal, concretamente el cambio de regímenes o el Markov switching. Por otro lado, examinamos los modelos lineales del análisis dinámico factorial. Al final del capítulo analizamos el modelo del factor común latente con la dinámica nolineal (con cambios de regímenes) que está construido como una combinación de estos dos metodos principales.
En el capítulo tres introducimos un modelo general dinámico multifactorial con la dinámica lineal y nolineal. Este modelo permite captar la dimensión intertemporal (indicador avanzado versus indicador coincidente) de los factores comunes inobservables. Se examinan dos modelos dinámicos alternativos con un factor común inobservable avanzado y un factor común inobservable coincidente. En el primer modelo el factor común coincidente esta influido por el factor común avanzado a través del mecanismo de causalidad de Granger. Mientras que en el segundo modelo los dos factores estan relacionados via la matríz de las probabilidades de transición. Debido a que el factor avanzado contiene información sobre los cambios futuros de las fases cíclicas, ambos modelos permiten hacer predicciones de los puntos de giro del ciclo económico.
En el capítulo cuatro elaboramos las técnicas sumplementarias necesarias para resolver algunos problemas de datos que son bastante frecuentes en la actividad de un economista empírico. Los dos problemas más importantes son los cambios estructurales y la falta de observaciones, particularmente cuando los datos que estan disponibles con distintas frecuencias (por ejemplo: los datos mensuales y trimestrales). Estos problemas quiebran la continuidad de la serie temporal y reducen el número de observaciones válidas para el análisis estadístico. Se demuestra que estos problemas se resuelven modificando el modelo de análisis dinámico factorial, con lo que se obtienen estimaciones más eficientes de los parametros del modelo.
The main objective of our research undertaken in this thesis is to elaborate a technique of constructing a composite economic indicator or a set of such indicators which would correspond to the theoretical concept of business cycle and reflect a phenomenon which may be interpreted as the cyclical dynamics of the economy.
As a point of departure we have chosen the definition of business cycle proposed by Burns and Mitchell (1946). We believe that the most appropriate method to capture the Burns and Mitchell's cycle would be the dynamic factor analysis.
The dynamic factor analysis in its current state requires undoubtedly some refinements and extensions to obtain unbiased and consistent estimates of the composite economic indicators and to use the available information in the best possible way.
Our research is mostly oriented towards the practitioners who have opted for using the dynamic factor approach in the construction of the business cycle indicator both at the regional and national levels.
The thesis is comprised of five chapters where the first and the last chapters are the introduction and conclusion delineating the objectives of the study and summarizing the results achieved during research.
Chapter two describes various approaches to the analysis of economic fluctuations proposed during the last 20 years. On the one hand, it concentrates on models with nonlinear, namely Markov-switching, dynamics, on the other hand, it is concerned with dynamic factor models. Finally, it shows the combined techniques which unify these two principal approaches, thus, modeling common latent factor with regime-switching dynamics.
In chapter three we introduce a general multifactor dynamic model with linear and regime-switching dynamics. This model allows capturing the intertemporal (leading versus coincident) dimension of the latent common factors. Two alternative multifactor dynamic models with a leading and a coincident unobserved common factors are examined: a model where the common coincident factor is Granger-caused by the common leading factor and a model where the leading relationship is translated into a set of specific restrictions imposed on the transition probabilities matrix.
Chapter four concentrates on the supplementary devices which allow to overcome some data problems which are very frequent in the practitioner's life. Among the most prominent are the structural breaks and missing observations. It is shown that some of these troubles can be coped with by modifying the dynamic common factors models, which leads to more efficient estimates of the parameters of the models.

À STMicroelectronics, l'équipe de Business Intelligence est confrontée à exploiter quotidiennement des données et des informations pour créer des rapports d'activité afin de superviser la production. Dans une telle organisation industrielle, les produits changent régulièrement et les données peuvent rapidement devenir obsolètes. Par conséquent, au fil du temps, le nombre de rapports crées est de plus en plus important, tandis que les connaissances sur leur création sont perdues. Ceci est illustré dans une évaluation qualitative et quantitative de la partie principale du système de connaissances à STMicroelectronics.Ainsi, des problèmes d'obsolescence, de duplication, de non-centralisation et de prolifération continuent à surgir. Ce travail doit, donc, répondre à la question de recherche générale suivante:Comment assurer une capitalisation continue des connaissances métier?Pour répondre à cette question, un cycle d'amélioration continue pour la capitalisation des connaissances est proposé. Son objectif est de capitaliser efficacement et en permanence les connaissances, tout en ciblant les besoins métier et assurant une solution évolutive. Un système de Business Intelligence pour la Business Intelligence (BI4BI) est proposé. Comme la connaissance est intégrée non seulement dans les systèmes et les outils, mais aussi détenue par les humains et leurs pratiques, notre solution de capitalisation de connaissances proposée implique aussi les utilisateurs et les organisations: elle propose de recueillir les points de vue des utilisateurs pour les intégrer dans la représentation des connaissances et dans notre système BI4BI
At STMicroelectronics, the Business Intelligence team is daily confronted to exploit data and information to create reports about manufacturing activities in order to supervise it. In such an industrial organization, products change regularly and data can quickly become obsolete. Consequently, over time, the number of created reports is highly growing, while knowledge about their creation is lost. This is shown in a qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the main part of the STMicroelectronics' knowledge system.As a result, problems related to knowledge obsolescence, duplication, non-centralization and proliferation continuously arise. Therefore, this work addresses the general following research question:How to ensure a continuous expert knowledge capitalization?To answer this question, a continuous improvement cycle for knowledge capitalization is proposed. Its objective is to effectively and continuously capitalize expert knowledge while targeting business needs and providing an evolving solution. It is based on a Business Intelligence for Business Intelligence system (BI4BI). Since knowledge is embedded not only in systems and tools, but also in human minds and practices, our proposed knowledge capitalization solution also involves people and organizations: it proposes to collect users' feedbacks and insights to integrate them in knowledge representation and in our BI4BI tool

Abstract The relationships between software producing companies, their customers and other parties involved have growing importance in the turbulent and fast developing business environment of today. The software industry itself is characterized by the Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS), tailored, and Modified-Off-The-Shelf (MOTS) businesses modes. In this versatile context of cooperation, financing and acquisitions demand exact details of the ownership of the products, i.e. the Intellectual Property Rights of these products and services. Legal forms and contracting procedures are emerging as the critical issues for the development of the information technology industry. This study addresses the problem of how software contracting has been approached and what concepts and models have been presented to understand it. Further, the question of the role of inter-organisational relationships (business-to-business) and intra-organisational process evolution in software contracting is discussed. The domains of interest and of relevance in this research are software development process, business process, legal process, and the contracting process itself, and the evolving interaction between these processes. The focus of this study is especially on contracting and on analysing the process of contracting, i.e. the dynamics, dependencies and elements of process related issues. The empirical part of the study was completed by analysing twelve software producing companies - eight were Finnish firms established in Silicon Valley (USA) and the rest were local Finnish firms with international operations. Based on the empirical findings, a software-contracting model was elaborated to describe how the contracting processes form and evolve in the context of software business. The model gives more understanding of the evolving contract processes and relationships. Further, the research produced concepts of how to manage contracting processes in the software business. Contributions of this study are, first, the well-defined model for contracting process in a software developing company. The elaborated model gives new insight into the elements, interrelationships and governance structures included in the contracting process and the relationship development between cooperating companies. Software companies can compare their contractual situation with the model. This enables them to develop their own processes further to respond to the present-day requirements. Secondly, the study specifies and introduces three different generic contracting networks for COTS, tailored, and MOTS business modes of software developing companies. It was established that these three business modes have similarities as well as differences in the application of software contracting processes. The COTS business relied firmly on multiform licensing practices, whereas the tailored business saw the framework contract as the main contractual tool and interestingly the MOTS business employed combinations of these two previous forms, i.e. both licensing and framework contracts. This study evoked some interesting future research prospects. In order to create a more accurate overall view of the whole contracting process the research should be continued and take the interplay of both customer and supplier under closer scrutiny. Another important issue would be to examine the contracts used in these different business modes from a strict legal viewpoint and the possible transformation of the predominant legal practices.

The environmental uncertainty of federal politics and acquisition outsourcing in competitive markets requires an adaptive decision-analysis structure. Practitioners oriented toward exclusively static methods face severe challenges in understanding qualitative aspects of organizational governance. The purpose of this grounded theory study was to examine and understand behavioral relationship attributes within intuitive, choice, judgment, or preference decision-making processes. The problem addressed in this study was the detrimental effects of organizational citizenship behavior (OCB), compulsory citizenship behavior (CCB), and social exchange theory (SET) on the acquisition management relationship The OCB, CCB, SET dictates that sound business development, relationship acumen, emotional intelligence and perceptiveness transcend pure numerical quantification. Exhibition of relationship-based attributes influence and drive long-term contractual relationships and the sustainability of business organizations. The data collected included historical data and survey responses. Approximately 34,000 acquisition professionals comprised the population-sampling frame. The study sample consisted of 378 survey responses that yielded 294 qualifying respondents with 94 disqualifications that produced a 78% response rate. The Carnegie-Mellon behavioral survey guidelines underpinned questionnaire construction and affirmation of themes. Strauss and Corbin grounded theory and theme generation addressed behavioral decision making under the additive model that inform the development of an organizational social operations and business framework that accounts for intuitive judgment. The study may contribute to positive social change by orienting managers toward behavioral decision making, ensuring responsiveness to the public and federal governance

La lutte contre la destruction des écosystèmes et les efforts pour renforcer et renouveler les conditions de leur prise en charge collective reposent aujourd’hui sur trois fronts d’innovation disjoints : (1) la conception et l’utilisation de nouveaux outils d’évaluation des écosystèmes dans le champ de la conservation ; (2) le développement de nouvelles comptabilités socio-environnementales à l’échelle des organisations et (3) la mise à contribution des entreprises dans la protection du capital naturel. Cette thèse doctorale vise à les articuler en mobilisant la comptabilité comme pivot pour connecter les systèmes d’information écologique, les formes diverses d’organisation de l’action collective, et les initiatives et comptabilités des entreprises. Elle combine un travail de construction théorique et une recherche-intervention auprès d’une grande entreprise du secteur de l’environnement qui cherche à développer des activités de service dédiées à la qualité écologique des territoires. Nous proposons premièrement l’ouverture d’une nouvelle perspective d’innovation théorique et pratique, au croisement entre comptabilités et sciences de la conservation, et centrée sur la gestion collective de problèmes écologiques : le développement de « Comptabilités de Gestion pour les Ecosystèmes ». Nous montrons en quoi elles sont complémentaires de l’ensemble des autres types d’innovations comptables portant sur les écosystèmes. Nous proposons deuxièmement quatre grandes orientations organisationnelles et stratégiques pour penser et guider le développement de nouveaux modèles d’affaires de « services aux écosystèmes ». Afin de les compléter, nous ouvrons des pistes de conception de comptes et d’activités comptables pour accompagner une entreprise du secteur de l’environnement dans la négociation et la création collective de valeur écologique sur les territoires et dans la transformation de sa propre représentation et quantification de la valeur
Current efforts to halt the destruction of the planet’s ecosystems and to reinforce and renew their collective management reside on three distinct innovation fronts: (1) the design and use of new ecosystem assessment tools by conservation scientists and practitioners; (2) the development of new social and environmental accounting frameworks and tools at the level of organization; (3) the contribution of the private sector to natural capital protection and maintenance. This doctoral thesis aims to relate these three domains of innovation to one another by mobilizing the accounting discipline as a pivot to connect ecological information systems and tools, diverse forms of collective action for ecosystem management, and private sector initiatives and accounting innovations. The thesis combines a work of theoretical construction with the results of an action-research conducted in an environmental sector company that seeks to develop new services specifically designed for the management of ecological systems. We first propose a new theoretical and practical perspective at the junction of accounting and conservation science centered on the collective management of ecological issues: the development of Management Accounting for Ecosystems. We show why and how they are complementary to all the other domains of ecosystem accounting innovation. Secondly, we introduce four organizational and strategic directions to think and guide the development of new “services to ecosystems” business models. To complement them, we suggest new accounts and accounting practices to help environmental sector companies negotiate and co-create ecological value with other stakeholders, and transform their own representation and quantification of corporate value

Defence date: 14 May 2007
Examining board: Prof. Mike Artis, University of Manchester, Supervisor ; Prof. Anindya Banerjee, EUI ; Prof. Jean Imbs, HEC Lausanne ; Dr Ayhan Kose, International Monetary Fund
Originally, the term business cycle referred to combination of periods of economic expansion and decline, however the concept has been enlarged to include fluctuations of growth around the trend, that is, combinations of periods when growth is higher than the long-term growth with periods when it is lower.

This thesis studies the self-fulfilling business cycles in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with financial market frictions. It consists of three papers. The first paper uncovers a series of belief shocks (a.k.a animal spirits) that drive the U.S. economy from both financial markets data and the structure of a financial accelerator model with borrowing constraint. It finds that the computed belief shocks are well identified and resemble the observable proxy in the real world. Furthermore, the model economy in which only sunspot shocks matter performs at least as well as a standard real business cycle model driven by technology shocks in replicating major U.S. business cycle facts and it outperforms the real business cycle model in some other dimensions. The second paper investigates the role of people's animal spirits in an estimated artificial economy with financial market frictions via Bayesian methods. It demonstrates that people's animal spirits are prime drivers of U.S. business cycle fluctuations. Animal spirits shocks account for well over a third of output fluctuations over the period from 1955 to 2014. Financial friction and technology shocks are considerably less important. It also finds that a substantial part of aggregate output's contraction during the Great Recession was caused by adverse shocks to expectations. The third paper follows the path of Adelman and Adelman (1959), applying the classical business cycle method proposed by Burns and Mitchell (1946) to evaluate the cyclical properties of an animal spirits model that is estimated in the second paper. In particular, the paper examines whether the model can reproduce qualitative features of U.S. business cycle. The results indicate an adequately high degree of coincidence in main macroeconomic aggregates between the business cycle features identified in actual time series data and those found in model economy.
Thesis (Ph.D.) (Research by Publication) -- University of Adelaide, School of Economics, 2018

碩士
世新大學
經濟學研究所(含碩專班)
91
Abstract It is known that although investors can obtain many kinds of financial information, it is still difficult to make an investment decision concerning optimal timing. Therefore, the understanding of macroeconomic business cycles is central to portfolio selections. The objective of this thesis aims at studying the relationship between the phases of business cycles and stock market performances of eight stocks of industries. First, I employ neo-classical theory of potential output to measure the output gap of GNP and identify the phases of business cycles from 1990Q1 to 2002Q3; and second, I investigate the financial performances of corresponding industry portfolio. To sum up, I have the following findings: 1. The stock performances during the business cycle phases A. The stock returns of the industry during booming have contradictory results during the recovering phase, and the longer you hold it, the larger you lose. B. During the beginning of recession, whatever the length of holding period, there is no significant difference among industries. C. When recession worsens, although most industries performs poorly, we find some stocks with longer holding periods get better performances; not only is the negative return decreasing, but also positive returns are observed in some of them. D. During recovery, almost all industries have better returns, and the longer you hold, the better returns you get. 2. As of the holding periods, the 4-week holding period has the best return in recovery; the next is recovery, the 4-week holding period performs badly when recession worsens. 3. When the economy is in the phase of booming, the best stock among all kinds of holding period is Electrical Machine and Equipment(電機重電類股), the worse is Finance and Insurance. 4. The optimal holding period for Electrical Machine and Equipment during the booming period is 26 weeks.

博士
國立清華大學
經濟學系所
105
This dissertation studies the topics on firms' financial policy and investment policy and focuses on Taiwan’s publicly listed firms and unlisted firms. The first chapter aims to empirical study how the firms finance over the business cycles, and the second chapter attempts to explore the impact of stock market listing on firms’ investment policy. In the first chapter, our study is motivated by the finding in recent literature that expansion and contraction of “credit” (or debt) has played an important role in the genesis and severity of many business cycles, e.g., Koo (2009) and Jordà et al. (2013, 2015). However, among the studies regarding firm financing behavior over business cycles, no consensus has been reached on both theoretical and empirical fronts. In this chapter, we employ data on Taiwan’s 2838 publicly listed firms and 1289 unlisted firms over the 1986-2014 period to study the patterns of firm debt finance, equity finance and leverage ratio. Through our panel regressions of changes in firms’ debt and equity on firms’ sales, internal cash flow, tangibility of assets, and cyclical macro variables, we reach the following observations: (1) firms’ debt financing exhibits clear pro-cyclical pattern for both listed and unlisted firms while equity financing exhibits clear pro-cyclical pattern for unlisted firms but not listed firms, (2) the pro-cyclicality of debt financing is more prominent for medium to large-sized firms while the pro-cyclicality of equity financing is more prominent for small to medium-sized unlisted firms, and (3) younger firms and firms with lower leverage tend to exhibit stronger pro-cyclical pattern in equity financing but less pro-cyclical pattern in debt financing. As smaller-sized unlisted firms are usually with young age and with a lower leverage ratio and larger sized firms are usually more mature and with higher leverage, our above findings are consistent with each other and with the prediction of Berger and Udell (1998)’s “financial growth cycle theory of business”. In the second chapter, our study investigates how firms’ investment decisions are affected by stock market listing. On the one hand, low-cost capital obtained from the stock markets can relieve a firm financial constraints and induce listed firms to pursue investment activities, but on the other hand, stock market pressures induce listed firms to invest myopically. To help disentangle aforementioned opposing possibilities, we focus on R&D investment and employ a sample of listed and unlisted Taiwan firms over the period 1986-2014 to examine whether the difference between the investment behaviors of listed and unlisted firms are a direct result of their difference in market-listing status. Our empirical results show that the impact of a firm’s listing status on its R&D expenditures depends on its internal capital. The sensitivity of R&D investment to investment opportunities is higher in unlisted firms with large internal capital compared to listed firms with similar internal capital characteristics, while the difference between the R&D investment sensitivities to investment opportunities in listed and unlisted firms with small internal capital are insignificant. These findings suggest that due to the sufficient internal capital and the lack of stock market pressure, unlisted firms are better positioned for taking advantage of investment opportunities than listed firms.

碩士
國立中央大學
企業管理研究所
96
Many documents have discussed the anomalies of momentum strategy documented by Jegadeesh and Titman (1993), the most recent literature argued that macroeconomic variables can explain momentum profits. This paper refers to earnings momentum proposed by Chan, Jegadeesh and Lakonishok (1996) and investigates the relation of earnings momentum and business cycle. The empirical results show that it has earnings momentum in Taiwan''s stock market, and the three-month period as a holding period is the best. Earnings momentum strategy is applicable in the expansion period, and taking a short losers portfolio would be better in the recession period. Macroeconomic variables in the monitoring indicators total score (MIS), money supply (M1B) and stock price index (SPI) of earnings momentum strategies with a negative return to the relationship, and the unemployment rate (UR) shows a positive relationship.

碩士
國立中山大學
經濟學研究所
97
Taiwan business indicators are announced by CEPD(Council For Economic Planning And Development) , and divided into three categories – business monitoring indications, business expectation indicators and industrial business expectation survey. Business expectation indicators are further divided into the Composite Index of Leading Indicators and the Composite Index of Coincident Indicators. Leading indicators, which are expected to forecast business cycles, are widely used to monitor or even predict the fluctuations of economic activities. They are also used to provide early signals of economic trend and, therefore, considered as a tool to adjust the government’s economic policy. CEPD use the compilation of the USA National Bureau of Economic Research as a reference for a long time, and has announced Taiwan’s ex-business indicators since 1977 without making any revision in the past years, so they announced new business indicators in 2007. As we know, it is difficult to find the leading indicator to make the stable variable of predicting the business cycle, which raises doubts of whether the current leading indicators can done the work concisely. CEPD make the indicators a little bit subjective because of considering government’s policy and the meaning of containing widely economic fields and the convenience of static, so this research try to examine the effect of current seven leading indicators. This thesis focuses on leading indicators to investigate how the seven components are related to the general economy. Composite Index of Leading Indicators is made up of seven indicators in order to predict the business cycle. The seven indicators include Index of export orders, Monetary aggregates, M1B, Stock prices index, Index of producer''s inventory, Average monthly overtime in industry & services, Building permits, SEMI book –to–bill ratio. In the purpose of getting more sample data, we take Industrial production index, one of coincident indicators announced by CEPD as the variable of current economy.

碩士
國立中央大學
經濟學研究所
96
In this paper, we examine whether the current business leading indicator components can forecast business cycle effectively. This study proceeds with empirical analysis about seven business leading indicator components and business cycle published by CEPD (Council for Economic Planning and Development). In order to prevent business leading indicator components from the influence of short-term incidents and factors which can not forecast business cycle, this paper uses the Empirical Mode Decomposition, the primary method of Hilbert-Huang Transform developed by Huang, extracts the shortest-term fluctuations from the variables, and then compose new business leading indicator components. As a result, we find that there are only two leading indicator components, Index of Producer’s Inventory and Building Permit (including housing, mercantile, business and service, industrial warehousing), in empirical analysis under shorter lag periods VAR model, are effective leading indicators in Granger causality test. While under longer lag periods VAR model, all of the seven leading indicator components behave poor in Granger causality test. However, under shorter lag periods VAR model, there are three leading indicator components (including Index of Export Orders, Index of Producer’s Inventory, and Stock Price Index) are effective leading indicators in Granger causality test within seven modified leading indicator components recommended by this paper. Under longer lag periods VAR model, all of the seven leading indicator components behave well in Granger causality test, which can be business leading indicators. Finally, this paper uses out-of-sample test to evaluate the modified leading indicator components. This result proves that new business leading indicator components suggested by this paper forecast business cycle more accurately.

碩士
國立臺北大學
經濟學系
106
The exchange rate of foreign currency exchange dollars was investigated from the American investor’s point of view to study the dollar risk factors and carry trade risk factor characteristics and the relationship to international interest rate difference. The data in this study is covered from November 1983 to November 2016. For the total samples and developed countries sample, we constructed six groups of investment portfolio according to forward premium, as the proxy as interest rate difference. In addition, this study compared the period in the recession and the expansion to verify if the relationship is robust. The empirical results show that there is a significant positive correlation between the dollar risk factor variables in the regression analysis (OLS), whether in expansion or recession. The relationship between the spread risk factor and the difference between the difference is in addition to the second set of spreads in the recession, the others are significant. This result is consistent with the results of Lustig et al. (2011), and the estimation of risk factors in the Fama-Macbeth regression analysis has no significant in the recession. While the dollar risk factor has a negative relationship with the spread payment.

碩士
國立屏東科技大學
科技管理研究所
102
This thesis investigates the effect of the change of business cycle on the relationship between R&;D expenditures, patents, royalty payment, and business performance, and the intermediary effect of patents. Related data, in 2008～2012, of 150 OTC companies are collected. The results from multiple regression analysis show that, with the moderating effect of the change of business cycle, R&;D expenditures have a significant effect on ROA and EPS. But no evidence shows that patents have a significant intermediary effect between R&;D expenditures and performance. It is also found that, with the moderating effect of the change of business cycle, the royalty payments has a significant effect on EPS, and patents have a significant intermediary effect between royalty payment and EPS.

碩士
中原大學
會計研究所
91
Due to the facts that the products of the information technology and electronic firms of Taiwan mainly for export purposes, these industries are facing against the keen competition with the international leading electronic firms. In order to maintain the competitive advantage of Taiwanese firms, all the relevant firms emphasized, the investment of R&D. According to Dertouzos(2001), the research and development was the key factor for high technology industry to maintain the competitive edge, this study attempts to investigate whether the heavy investment of research and development improves the competitive power and increases the profits of the information technology and electronic firms. Moreover, both Kane(1997) & Brockhoff and Pearson(1998) found that the decisions on research and development would be influenced by the fluctuations of business cycle, this work incorporates business cycle variable in order to investigate whether business cycle has any impacts on the research and development decisions of the information-technology and electronic industries in Taiwan. This study chooses the publicly listed companies of the information-technology and electronic industries from the second quarter of 1999 to the fourth quarter of 2002 to forma whole sample. This work also employs variance analysis and regression analysis to investigate the relation between the business cycle and the research & development, to explore the relation between the business cycle and the financial performance, and to find the impacts of the business cycle and research & development on the financial performance of the information-technology and electronic firms. The empirical results are summarized as follows： 1. This study found that the variation ratio of industrial production index was significantly negatively correlated with the intensity of research & development for the whole sample, (i.e., the intensity of research & development during the expansionary period was smaller than that of research & development during the contractionary period.) This work further examined the research and development of individual industry and found that although the industrial production index was still negatively associated with the intensity of research & development, yet the coefficient is significant only for the upstream and the downstream industry, moreover, the lagged gross profit has a significantly positive correlation with the intensity of research & development, which indicated the higher the lagged gross profit , the higher the intensity of research & development is. 2. This investigation found that the industrial production index had a significantly positive correlation with the financial performance of the whole sampling firms. This result indicated that the profitability of firms may change as business cycle fluctuates. However, this study further subdivided all the firms into different industries and found that the extent and time period of the impacts were different for individual industries. 3. This work found that different R&D groups had significant difference regarding financial performance. Furthermore, the financial performance of high R&D group was significantly superior to medium small R&D groups, which indicated that the greater the R&D investment, the better the competitive power and performance. 4. This study showed that different industries have significant different results regarding financial performance. Furthermore, the financial performance in the software industry was significant better than the other industries. 5. The intensity of research & development was significantly positively correlated with gross profits, while the intensity of R&D was negatively associated with the operating income and the rate of return on assets during the same period. Additionally, this work also found that there was a negatively interaction effect between business cycle and research & development for the downstream industries.

碩士
元智大學
管理研究所
97
Taiwan''s foundry industry ranked first in the world. Economic ups and downs but the semiconductor idustry,causing manufacturers have followed the growth of operating conditions or a recession,Taiwan''s foundry industry to face a highly competitive industry environment,can maintain its advantage,is the foundry industry in Taiwan an important issue。The purpose of this study the cost structure through various management and industry focus of the business cycle prediction, prediction of Taiwan into 6-inch,8 inch,12-inch wafer foundry industry development strategy for the future of the industry trends,provide as industry,government agencies,follow-up study From the future of reference in decision-making or research.。 In this study,use of Delphi for the five major Taiwan foundry industry are to do research,prediction time for 2009 ~ 2013.The results showed that by the conclusion of the study:(1)In addition to 6-inch manufacturing industry to other manufacturing cost and direct costs of raw materials accounted for the largest proportion of two things,more than are required for depreciation and other manufacturing cost。(2) business cycle,in order to compare the 2008,2009 Recession in the largest recovery to begin by the end of 2011。(3)Taiwan''s foundry industry segments for the 6-inch,8 inch, 12-inch wafer Industry, market demand and different development strategies, both the value of existence,the final will not go away,gradually tend to integrate or Strategic alliance development。 In this study,the overall management of meaning (1)6-inch wafer manufacturing, the use of idle capacity development epitaxial process, reduce the unit into This high-pressure and improve separation of components niche products to enhance sales productivity。 Micro-electro-mechanical or solar power towards silicon wafer Materials hair Show the formation of Polyhedrosis reduce operating risk business model。Middle and lower reaches of a strategic alliance to take on the establishment of operational risk assessments to form a district Every competitive advantage。(2) 8-inch wafer manufacturing,the new capacity utilization,release of excess production capacity will be resold,or transferred to the mainland Products for the lower-order to reduce costs,enhance return on assets。Towards the development of Micro-Electro-Mechanical and hair 0.11μm process technology Exhibition. Integration of upstream and downstream industries, service model,reduce the waste of resources,enhance the investment returns。(3) 12-inch wafer foundries Industry,the combination of first-line IDM companies to work together to reduce the R & D costs,new capacity utilization, reduce unit costs, Enhance the return on assets。Towards the 32nm or 22nm process technology research and development,separate industrial advantages,combined with the development of the supply chain meeting Generation facility (18 inches), widening the distance with the competitors。Integration of upstream and downstream industries,the provision of "open innovation platform",OIP,to reduce the waste of resources,improve investment returns。

碩士
國立成功大學
高階管理碩士在職專班(EMBA)
100
Abstract The subject is to make out the crisis and normal firms in the Working Capital Management in Taiwan which has conspicuous difference or not. The subject which each have 62speciments are go get from normal and crisis firms that from year 1998 to 2009. The theme is to probe into normal and crisis firm in financial ratios which to be related working capital. Beside add the business cycle factors which have firm difference or not. About period is to include the event occurred in which ahead and behind two years and four years ahead. And then also to probe into between the working capital and business cycle fluctuation which have firms’ causality at the boom circulate. The results can be showed as follows: 1. The normal and crisis firms in the financial ratios which to be related working capital have conspicuous difference in the even occurred which ahead and behind two years and ahead four years except Current ratio and the ratio which is Accounts receivable in Current assets/Total assets. 2. We also to probe into between the working capital and business cycle fluctuation which have conspicuous causality at the business cycle and the company’s classification. We can know the prosperity changes can to effect current ratios and cash turnover. This is to indicate the working capital can effect by business cycle fluctuation and company’s classification. Key words: Working Capital, Business cycle, Finance Ratio.

碩士
崑山科技大學
企業管理研究所
97
Behavioral Finance Theory and Financial Theory traditional main difference is the assumption that the decision-making process of investors and investor reaction to information, and behavioral finance school of psychology in an attempt to explore and explain the traditional school finance can not be explained by abnormal (market anomalies ). In this study, the stock market in Taiwan as the research object, research period from July 1986 to December 2007, a total of 138 months, mainly in the newly listed companies to explore the impact of long stock, short-term factors that over-paid, first of all, the three factor test The newly listed companies in Taiwan stock compensation over the interpretation of whether there is sufficient ability, and add emotional indicators - sunlight effect or its agent indicators - turnover rate, the overall environmental factors, business cycle factors and kinetic factors, in conclusion, this study will examine object into the electronic industry and non-electronic industries, and further explore whether the variables can explain the new listed company shares long-and short-term over-compensation, empirical results: Market risk factor in the short and long-term investment under the portfolio of IPOs are over-paid a significant positive impact on the scale of risk factors, indicators of investor sentiment - the sun and the effects of alternative investor sentiment indicators - the stock turnover rate of the short-term investments on IPOs combination of over-paid significant positive effects; in considering the momentum factor (MOM) under the elongation factor model, the kinetic energy factor, whether it is a month (1,1), three months (3,3), six (6 , 6) and twelve months (12,12), IPOs portfolio Jensen''s alpha in the short term under the positive effects are significant. IPOs in this study according to whether the attribution of the criteria in the electronics industry to distinguish between samples, in fact, evidence was found that: In considering the market size, the net market value of more than three risk, the short-and long-term, the electronics industry IPOs and non-electronics industry still has a significant positive to pay the excess; momentum factor to consider, whether K (1,1), K (3,3) K (6,6) and K (12,12), the momentum factor (MOM) is sufficient to explain the electronics industry and non-electronics industry short-term performance of IPOs, but the long-term, the momentum factor (HML) only in the K (12,12) under the IPOs of non-electronics industry pay a significant portfolio of positive effects.

碩士
國立高雄應用科技大學
人力資源發展系碩士班
102
Organizational life cycle theory is that any enterprise development stage will produce different phenomena and problems, leading enterprises in order to continue to grow and compete with their business strategy requires constant adjustment and correction, so that human resources management and remuneration system and operating environment and energy strategy interconnected, and according to its position in which the industry, tailored to make appropriate management activities, so that it can promote the enterprise's operations and enhance their competitiveness. The staff in the choice of corporate, payroll systems and human resource management systems are the most important considerations for awareness of the pay system and the level of human resource management system will influence the organizational performance. The study aims at investigating the related research among perception pay equity, human resources management strategy and organizational performance in different life cycle enterprise. The nethodologies in this study adopted are questionnaires.This research to the corporation employees in Taiwan in 2013 for survey distribution object.The formal questionnaire use purposive sampling.The entire population of 590 employees, and 516 valid question aires were collected, the effective returning response rate was 87.4%. The data were analyzed using the statistic methods of factor analysis, descriptive statistics, t–test, one-way ANOVA, Pearson’s product-moment correlation, and hierarchical regression analysis using a package of SPSS 18.0, the main findings of this study are summarized as follows: 1. Employees perceived the "human resources management strategy ," is better perception, less "perceived pay equity" 2. The human resource management strategy to employees ' human resources management program " is better perception 3. The staff organizational performance in "marketing performance " perception is better, "Operating innovation performance " is poor perception . 4. The employees of the business life cycle of perceived pay equity, organizational performance and human resource management strategies with significant differences, while the employees' perceptions is lower in the "recession" of organizational life cycle 5. The perceived pay equity can effectively predict organizational performance , where " entrepreneurship period" and can not predict , and " growing period ", " recession period " have good predictive effect 6. The perceived pay equity can effectively predict human resource management strategies , where " entrepreneurship period" and can not predict , and " growing period ", " recession period " have good predictive effect 7. The human resource management strategies can effectively predict organizational performance , all the business life cycle stages have good predictive results, but " entrepreneurial period" have poor predictive effect key words：business life cycle, perception pay equity, human resources management strategy , organizational performance

碩士
國立成功大學
高階管理碩士在職專班(EMBA)
100
Abstract As the study of Corporate Social Responsibility （CSR） has conducted, the public puts more efforts and concerns on it. However, the past studies of CSR aim the relationship between CSR and the company performance. The purpose of this study is to discuss the relation among CSR, business cycle and turnover intention. The reasons of turnover intention might result from the image of the company, employees’ sense of achievement, staffs’ sense of honor, the identity, the business cycle and so on. In sum, it is not only the external but also the internal factors would cause high turnover. In this study, it emphasizes the influence of CSR and the business cycle on turnover intention. In order to investigate the effect of CSR and the business cycle on turnover intention, this project take Industrial Technology Research Institute（ITRI）as an example. It analyzes 431 valid questionnaires from employees by Descriptive Statistics, Factor Analysis, Reliability Analysis, ANOVA and Multiple Regression Analysis. The results go as follows. 1) The attitude of the company toward CSR has a negative influence on the employee turnover. That is, the higher the CSR recognition of the employee, the lower rate of the employee turnover. 2) The more prosperous the market is, the fewer the number of employee turnover is. Key Word：Corporate Social Responsibility（CSR）, Business Cycle, Turnover Intension

碩士
國立中正大學
會計與資訊科技所
96
After the digitization of business, the next step in the search to stay competitive has become mobile commerce. Not all firms are satisfied with operating the mobile commerce system efficiently to increase their competitive edge and gain profits. Some departments of firms failed to operate mobile commerce system successfully, which has caused huge extra costs and losses from ineffective processes. This research was made with the aid of the Gowin’s Vee concept mapping tools. A Delphi questionnaire will be further applied to solidify the research model on the factors affecting the implementation of the mobile commerce systems by business entities. Through the grounded theory, we worked out four elements, as well as 21 critical factors that affect the implementation of mobile commerce systems. The documentary analysis further helped us work out the six major stages in the system life cycle, and to build up the primary structure for the study. After the statistical analysis made through the Delphi Questionnaire, we additionally revised the research model to include four elements and 20 critical factors. One critical factor, “M-ized Equipment Consideration,” was removed. These key issues, categorized into the different stages of the system life cycle, require special attention from the industries and the system suppliers when considering the implementation of a mobile commerce system. A majority has reached a consensus, but a few still harbor differing opinions. Lastly, a case study was conducted to prove the suitability of “Factors that lead to the success of firms that have adopted Mobile Commerce.” “Managing personnel’s familiarity with the system,” was a key element added upon the recommendation of the companies studied. The findings from our study suggest that within the four elements of the Diamond Model, key elements focused on techniques and organization. Hence, firms are recommended to focus their resources on these two elements to ensure that the best results are achieved from the adaptation of the Mobile Commerce system. If one can precisely control the factors that lead to the success of every element during the implementation phase of the Mobile Commerce system, it will lead to a smoother implementation process. These are items that firms and system suppliers should attach great importance to at every stage of the life cycle when adopting the Mobile Commerce System.

碩士
中國科技大學
企業管理系
103
According to the 2013 annual white paper, Taiwan's industries are structured mainly with small & medium enterprises, the number of Taiwan's SMEs is 97% of all enterprises; sales value is about 30% of all enterprises; wherein operating for 10 years (or more) is about 50% percent of SMEs; employment of SMEs is nearly 80% nationwide, showing SMEs are not only the backbone of Taiwan's economy; SMEs can bring flexible operational characteristics in the economic slowdown, showing steady during economic fluctuations and to prevent the deterioration of the unemployment function. Nonetheless numerous entrepreneurs fought to put the development of the ranks of the newly created, but can get through the creation stage (seed stage and create stage), and enter the new institution-growing stable but it is limited. Venture survival is harder than entrepreneurship. In recent years, entrepreneurship rate is stable in Taiwan, but high exit rate. The newly created business is difficult to maintain, because one of the main cause of failure is unable to obtain critical resources, including human resources, capital, technology, etc., among which the shortage of funds is the most common challenges faced by start-up business. Business startups have more resources to entrepreneurs specializing in technology-based, and the remaining resources are quite limited, and the introduction of venture capital is one of the key factors in the success of the newly created business. This study is to investigate the venture capital for start-ups business operating performance in the lifecycle of seed, create stage for research purposes. Past literature, mostly the study focus on venture capital to maturity of all listed companies, 90% of venture capital investment plan focused on the business of expansion or maturity, but in the seed and the creation of the new companies is lack of cares. The study does not investigate the financial performance of the venture capital industry's successfully coaching companies after the listing of the newly cabinet. The study target the companies which are within 10 years for the establishment of small and medium enterprises, without parent company supports, and in the seed stage having venture capital investment. With venture capital firms in Taiwan have involved the initial public offerings of listed / cabinet company as the object of this study, more venture capital is in the seed or create a new record of involvement in the cause of business performance impact, and whether the venture capital intervention improve the newly created Division of operating performance. Research to create new business venture if there is participation in or creation of seed, as well as venture capital stake, the number of venture capital participation, venture capital directors and supervisors seats, seats of directors and supervisors of venture capital as a proportion of reference indicators to compare its operating performance. Positive results of this study showed that: (1) in seed stage there is a new record or create venture capital firm involved in the business, the performance of their performance than those without the newly created business performance in the seed stage venture capital companies or creating of participation have significant impact , (2) the creation of seed or there is a new venture capital firm involved in the record business, the venture capital company for business start-ups have a significant influence, and its effects have significant influence supervision. Key words: Initial public offerings, business start-ups, venture capital, corporate life cycle