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1
Kernen, Joakim. « Trends, cycles and institutions : -Job polarization and the business cycle in Europe ». Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Nationalekonomiska institutionen, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-367063.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This thesis studies the cyclical aspect of job polarization in Europe. Contributions include offering a comparison to the findings of previous research on the United States, and extending the analysis by introducing labor market institutions. The analysis is done in two parts, first showing that the observed link between job polarization and jobless recoveries in the US is observed in Europe, but not across all countries and business cycles. In Scandinavia, the process of job polarization appears smoother than the spurts observed in the US. The second part involves regression analyses of the relationship between labor market institutions, the business cycle and occupational employment. The results indicate that stricter labor market institutions are less robustly associated with Routine employment than other occupational groups and that Routine employment is more sensitive to the business cycle than other types of employment. Further, rigid labor market institutions may prevent some of the Routine decline associated with economic downturns, while not necessarily affecting the long run employment. Limitations of the analysis regards rough estimates of the key variables, number of observations and the lack of identification associated with cross-country analyses.
2
Phelps, Peter. « Euro area enlargement and the prospects for business cycle synchronisation of Central and Eastern European countries ». Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2013. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.648101.
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3
Belo, Daniel Filipe Tiago. « Tax policy stance over the business cycle : evidence from Europe ». Master's thesis, NSBE-UNL, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/11524.
Texte intégralRésumé :
A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and EconomicsWe contribute to the literature addressing the cyclical behavior of tax policy. Most recent studies have relied on tax revenues and adjusted measures of tax collections to analyze this issue. We argue that such methodology is insufficient to characterize tax policy cyclicality, as tax revenues move endogenously with the business cycle. Consequently, this topic is revisited by making use of the policy instrument, tax rate, as opposed to the policy outcome, tax revenues. Using data for 13 European countries, we find that tax policy has mostly been a-cyclical over the last 30 years.
4
Boewer, Uwe. « Synchronisation of business cycles in the enlarged European Union ». Diss., lmu, 2007. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:19-65057.
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5
Silva, Ricardo Fernando Ferreira Reis da. « Nonlinearities and synchronization of business cycles : a novel approach ». Master's thesis, Universidade de Aveiro, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10773/1772.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Mestrado em EconomiaEsta dissertação estuda os padrões de sincronização de ciclos económicos numa amostra composta por 18 países desenvolvidos e a Zona Euro ao longo do período 1970:1-2008:1. Para realizar este estudo, propomos um novo modelo de componentes não observáveis multivariado com markov-switching e interdependência de estados variável no tempo, no qual a sincronização é modelizada como uma componente comum variável no tempo entre os ciclos económicos. Para estimar o modelo, desenvolvemos um filtro de Kalman adequado, que permite a projecção das componentes não observáveis e a estimação dos hiperparâmetros por máxima verosimilhança. Propomos também um novo fullsample smoother para recalcular as componentes não observáveis do modelo com base em toda a informação amostral. Usamos este modelo para testar 3 hipóteses: se a criação da União Monetária Europeia promoveu um aumento na sincronização dos ciclos económicos entre os seus membros; se a integração promoveu uma mudança na filiação cíclica com o ciclo económico dos EUA; se existe o surgimento de um ciclo económico agregado da Zona Euro. Os resultados mostram que a sincronização cíclica dos países da Zona Euro com a Zona Euro agregada foi superior à dos restantes países. No entanto, para a maioria dos países da Zona Euro, a sincronização com a Zona agregada aumentou até ao início da década de 90, e diminuiu a partir desse período. Apesar de existir um ligeiro aumento na sincronização com a Zona Euro agregada para algumas economias participantes em torno do momento da introdução da moeda única, não somos capazes de detectar um “efeito Euro” claro. Por outro lado, para a maioria das economias, a introdução da moeda única é coincidente com uma redução na sincronização com o ciclo dos EUA. Finalmente, não encontramos evidência do surgimento de um ciclo económico agregado da Zona Euro. ABSTRACT: This dissertation studies the patterns of business cycle synchronization across a sample of 18 developed countries and the aggregate Euro Area over the period 1970:1-2008:1. To perform this study, we propose a novel multivariate unobservedcomponents model with markov-switching and time-varying state interdependence, in which synchronization is modelled as a time-varying common component between the business cycles. To estimate the model, we develop an adequate Kalman filter, which allows the projection of the unobserved components and the estimation of the hyperparameters by maximum likelihood. We also propose a new full-sample smoother to recompute the unobserved components of the model based on all in-sample information. We use this model to test 3 hypothesis: whether the creation of the European Monetary Union promoted an increase in business cycle synchronization among its members; whether the integration has promoted a change in the cyclical affiliation with the US business cycle; and whether there is an emergence of an aggregate Euro Area business cycle. The results show that synchronization between the Euro Area countries with the aggregate Euro Area has been higher than for the remaining countries. Nevertheless, for the majority of the Euro Area countries, synchronization with the aggregate Area increased until the beginning of the 1990s, and dropped from that period onwards. Moreover, despite the existence of a slight increase in synchronization with the aggregate Euro Area for some participant economies around the timing of the introduction of the common currency, we are not able to uncover a clear “Euro effect”. On the other hand, for most of the economies, the introduction of the common currency is shown to be coincident with a drop in synchronization with the US business cycle. Finally, we do not find evidence of the emergence of an aggregate Euro-Area business cycle.
6
Malek, Mansour Jeoffrey H. G. « Three essays in international economics ». Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/210878.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This thesis consists in a collection of research works dealing with various aspects of International Economics. More precisely, we focus on three main themes: (i) the existence of a world business cycle and the implications thereof, (ii) the likelihood of asymmetric shocks in the Euro Zone resulting from fluctuations in the euro exchange rate because of differences in sector specialization patterns and some consequences of such shocks, and (iii) the relationship between trade openness and growth influence of the sector specialization structure on that relationship.Regarding the approach pursued to tackle these problems, we have chosen to strictly remain within the boundaries of empirical (macro)economics - that is, applied econometrics. Though we systematically provide theoretical models to back up our empirical approach, our only real concern is to look at the stories the data can (or cannot) tell us. As to the econometric methodology, we will restrict ourselves to the use of panel data analysis. The large spectrum of techniques available within the panel framework allows us to utilize, for each of the problems at hand, the most suitable approach (or what we think it is).
Doctorat en sciences économiques, Orientation économie
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
7
Crespo, Cuaresma Jesus, et Octavio Fernandez-Amador. « Business cycle convergence in EMU : A first look at the second moment ». Elsevier, 2013. http://epub.wu.ac.at/4128/1/JIMF_TP.pdf.
Texte intégralRésumé :
We analyse the dynamics of the standard deviation of demand and supply shocks as
well as of the demand component of GDP across countries in the European Monetary
Union (EMU). This analysis allows us to evaluate the patterns of cyclical comovement
in EMU and compare them the cyclical performance of the new members of the EU
and other OECD countries. We make use of sigma-convergence methods to identify
synchronization patterns in business cycles. The Eurozone has converged to a stable
lower level of dispersion across business cycles during the end of the 80s and the beginning
of the 90s. The new EU members have also experienced a strong pattern of
convergence from 1998 to 2005, when a strong divergence trend appears. An enlargement
of the EMU to 22 members would not significantly decrease its optimality as a
currency area. There is evidence for some Europe-specific characteristics as compared
to global comovements in business cycles. (authors' abstract)
8
Holm, Louise. « A non-stationary perspective on the European and Swedish business cycle / ». Göteborg : Dept. of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/2077/4445.
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Ugembe, Mendita Arnaldo. « Similitude das estruturas produtivas e ciclos económicos na União Europeia ». Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/11418.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Mestrado em Economia Monetária e FinanceiraEste trabalho tem como objetivo analisar a importância empírica da similitude das estruturas produtivas na sincronização dos ciclos económicos de 20 países da UE entre 2000 e 2007. A similitude das estruturas produtivas é medida através do índice de especialização de Krugman e do comércio intra-ramo (CIR), feito o controlo de outras variáveis que poderão também contribuir para o fenómeno em apreço, como a adesão ao euro. Relativamente à literatura anterior, testamos a importância de distinguir o comércio intra-ramo por tipos, designadamente se o efeito só é positivo no caso do CIR horizontal. Conclui-se que a similitude das estruturas produtivas contribui para a convergência dos ciclos económicos quando medida com o indicador de Krugman. No caso de se utilizar um indicador de CIR, o efeito positivo esperado ocorre somente quando este tem uma natureza horizontal, o que está em conformidade com a teoria.
This work aims to test the empirical importance of the similaritiy of production structures in business cycle synchronization in a cross-section of 20 EU countries between 2000 and 2007. The similarity of production structures was measured with the Krugman specialization index and an intra-industry trade (IIT) index, and it was done the control of other variables that may also contribute to the phenomenon in question, as joining to the Euro. Regarding to the previous literature, we tested the importance of distinguishing intra-industry trade by types, particularly if the effect is positive in the case of horizontal intra-industry trade. We conclude that the similarity of productive structures contributes to the business cycle synchronization when measured with the Krugman indicator. In the case of using an indicator of IIT, the expected positive effect occurs only when this has a horizontal differentiation, which is consistent with theory.
10
FRENDA, ANTONIO. « Estimating Business Cycle : from Bandpass Filters to Eurocoin Approach ». Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Bergamo, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10446/26712.
Texte intégralRésumé :
New Eurocoin (NE) is a synthetic and up-to-date statistics measure of the Euro-Area conjuncture. The target of NE is the medium to long-run component of the Euro Area GDP growth, that is published monthly by the Bank of Italy and CEPR. Estimations of NE are obtained through the generalized dynamic factor model.
It is a well-known result in the literature isolating the business cycle in integrated series that band-pass filter could deteriorate at the end of the sample, being less reliable for the most recent data. This is very relevant for economic policy. Altissimo, Cristadoro, Forni, Lippi, Veronese (2008) develop, through New Eurocoin Indicator, a method to obtain smoothing of a stationary time series so as to avoid the occurrence of end-of-sample deterioration and short-run fluctuations.
Since New Eurocoin indicator provides a summary index of the medium to long-run component (MLRG) of the GDP solely for the whole Euro area aggregate, the main contribution of this research is to propose some procedures to estimate the following disaggregated components of European GDP:
- Sectoral smoothed growths;
- MLRG concerning some countries belonging to the Euro Area;
- Expenditure components.
11
Tondl, Gabriele, et Iulia Traistaru-Siedschlag. « Regional Growth Cycle Convergence in the European Union ». Europainstitut, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2006. http://epub.wu.ac.at/568/1/document.pdf.
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This paper investigates the patterns and determinants of the co-movement of economic activity across regions in the European Union. Using a panel data of 208 EU-15 regions over the period 1989-2002 we estimate a system of four simultaneous equations to analyse the impact of regional trade integration, specialization and exchange rate volatility on correlations of regional growth cycles with the Euro area. We find that deeper trade integration with the Euro area had a strong direct positive effect on the synchronisation of regional growth cycles with the Euro area. Industrial specialisation and exchange rate volatility were sources of cyclical divergence. Industrial specialisation had however an indirect positive effect on growth cycles synchronisation via its positive effect on trade integration, while exchange rate volatility had an indirect additional negative effect on growth cycle correlations by reducing trade integration. Industrial specialisation had an indirect negative effect on growth cycle correlations by increasing the exchange rate volatility. The direct impact of trade integration on growth cycle correlations was stronger in the pre-EMU sub-period, while in the EMU subperiod, the negative direct effects of industrial specialisation and exchange rate volatility were stronger than in the pre-EMU sub-period. A distinct result is the positive and significant relationship between exchange rate volatility and growth cycle correlations in the pre-EMU sub-period, suggesting that over this period, country-specific exchange rate fluctuations acted as shock absorbers. Our analysis is relevant in the context of the discussion about the macroeconomic adjustment to region-specific shocks in the European Monetary Union. (authors' abstract)Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut
12
Sembenelli, Alessandro. « Industrial organization studies on market power and European integration ». Thesis, University of East Anglia, 2000. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.323264.
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13
Ozberki, Izzet Mehmet. « Is The Turkish Equity Market Integrated With European North American And Emerging Markets ». Master's thesis, METU, 2010. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12611962/index.pdf.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Modern portfolio theory stipulates that an investor can reduce systemic risk simply by diversifying its assets across national boundaries. Therefore, the issue of whether stock markets are cointegrated carries important implications for portfolio
diversification. This study aims to identify and model a relationship between four equity markets namely, Turkish, European, North American and emerging markets using cointegration technique. We investigated the existence of cointegrating equation between four stock market indices and also the existence of a structural break. During our investigation, we constructed a vector error correction model (VECM) to observe short and long run relationships between the four markets. We used daily data from the October 23, 1995 until November 20, 2009 and relevant Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) indices, namely MSCI Turkey, MSCI North America, MSCI Europe and MSCI Emerging Markets. Our first finding was that the Turkish equity markets are cointegrated with European, North American and emerging markets indicates that investing in the Turkish equity market does not provide an opportunity for risk diversification for international investors in the long run. It is only possible to
benefit from the discrepancies which may occur in the short run. Furthermore, we identified a structural break contemporaneous with crisis of November 2000.
14
Zhang, H. E. « The sustainability of European Monetary Union : evidence from business cycle synchronisation, monetary policy effectiveness and the Euro fiscal dividend ». Thesis, University of Bradford, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10454/7319.
Texte intégralRésumé :
EMU as the only functioning single currency area has been criticised as a non-optimal currency area since the Treaty on European Union was signed. Despite this, it has been seen as, probably, the most complete economic project that has ever been conducted by any group of governments. Through Dynamic Factor model and Panel VAR method, we are focusing on the issues of business cycle synchronisation, effectiveness of ECB monetary policy and the euro fiscal dividend, thus to advances the current studies on EMU through assessing whether it can be a sustainable system. For example, whether economic fluctuations can be effectively managed by implementing a single ECB monetary policy and financial market can be relied upon as a monitoring and enforcing device to discipline fiscal behaviour of Eurozone countries. Overall, we concluded that EMU could be more sustainable if it was just formed by its core members, leaving the periphery outside the single currency area. However, since the EU has recently conducted many rescue measures to save the Eurozone, we are unlikely to see those troubled countries to quit EMU, at least, at the present time. The sustainability of the current EMU can be improved if more intra-trade can be promoted to enhance business cycle convergence; hence, it will be more likely to have a union-wide appropriate monetary policy. This will also reduce the requirement of depending upon using fiscal measures to compensate the loss of monetary sovereignty. Moreover, fiscal activities can also be better monitored/enforced since the financial market has begun to adequately adjust the long-term interest rates on Eurozone government bonds according to the development in those countries fiscal stance.
15
Blessing, Jochen [Verfasser]. « Monetary and fiscal policy interaction in the enlarging European Economic and Monetary Union : Essays on business cycles and welfare / Jochen Blessing ». Berlin : Freie Universität Berlin, 2009. http://d-nb.info/1023496828/34.
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Chang, Michele M. « Crisis and credibility in the European monetary system / ». Diss., Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC IP addresses, 1998. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p9902292.
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Soares, Tiago de Menezes. « Comércio e ciclos na União Monetária Européia ». Universidade de São Paulo, 2007. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/12/12138/tde-18102007-133226/.
Texte intégralRésumé :
O objetivo deste estudo é investigar, através do estimador de diferenças em diferenças, se a adoção da união monetária européia ampliou tanto o comércio quanto a correlação bilateral dos ciclos econômicos entre seus membros, em comparação com outras economias da OCDE. A evidência apresentada sugere ser esse o caso, nos indicando que a união monetária, como processo último das teorias de integração, pode não ser um fim, mas sim um meio para o alcance da integração entre as economias.The goal of this paper is to investigate, by means of a simple difs-in-difs technique, whether the adoption of the monetary union among the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) has increased both bilateral trade and bilateral correlation of business cycles between them rather than amidst other OECD economies. We present evidence suggesting this to be the case, witch tells us that monetary union, as the last stage of the theories of economic integration, may not be an end by itself, but means of achieving the economic integration.
18
Rodrigues, Miguel João de Figueiredo. « Business Cycle Synchronization Between the Euro Area and The Central and Eastearn European Countries Member States of The Eu : A Markov switching Regime Model Approach ». Master's thesis, Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Porto, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10216/49826.
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Rodrigues, Miguel João de Figueiredo. « Business Cycle Synchronization Between the Euro Area and The Central and Eastearn European Countries Member States of The Eu : A Markov switching Regime Model Approach ». Dissertação, Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Porto, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10216/49826.
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20
Janeček, Daniel. « Konvergence hospodářských cyklů mezi eurozónou a novými členskými státy ». Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2008. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-10375.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The paper examines the degree of convergence between the business cycles of the new EU member states and eurozone. This convergence is a necessary condition for a troublefree operation of a monetary union. Several analyses have been used to assess the problem -- pure time series correlation, correlation of detrended time series and of lagged series, and above all impulse-response functions correlation and forecast error variance decomposition. Finally, the paper briefly assesses the evolution of business cycles convergence.
21
Polonyankina, Tatiana. « Má hospodářský cyklus dopad na vliv imigrace na evropský trh práce ? » Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2013. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-165416.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The thesis tests whether the impact of immigration on native workers differs depending on the business cycle. Previous studies proved that labour mobility and the effect of immigration differs with respect to the business cycle. For the expansionary years was found a sizable relocation of native workers to occupations with more interactive rather than manual content as a response to immigration. This is no longer the case for economy in recession period. However, there is null impact on native employment that does not change with the business cycle. The results were found for Spanish labour market and the conclusions about the employment all were found also for American labour market. The European labour market has been studied just in the period before crisis. Following the study about Spanish task specialization we would like to see if there is any change of impact of immigration on native task specialization in European Union. We split the data on the time period of expansion and the time period of economic crisis using the European Labour Force Survey. We would like to examine the effect of immigration on task specialization of natives on three groups of countries, West Europe, Germany and Middle and East Europe.
22
Fischerová, Veronika. « Politické cykly : Kupují si politici hlasy voličů vyššími výdaji ? » Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2015. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-193072.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The present thesis is concerned with the existence of political cycles in European Union member states between 1990 and 2013. These cycles are of two types: political business cycles and political budget cycles. The analysis was performed by means of the fixed effects method (using first differences) along with a visual analysis of data. The results obtained from three types of data sets show that two years before elections, inflation grows at 0.47%, unemployment rate at 0.5%, and structural balance at 0.8%. One of the data sets reveals that structural balance is reduced by 0.39% in election years. The visual analysis clearly demonstrates that there exist political business cycles in Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Poland and Sweden. Political budget cycles have been proven to exist in Belgium, France, Cyprus, Malta, Germany, Slovakia and the United Kingdom.
23
RIVOLTA, GIULIA. « ESSAYS ON MONETARY POLICY AND CYCLICAL CONVERGENCE IN THE EURO AREA ». Doctoral thesis, Università degli Studi di Milano, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2434/256711.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This work contributes to the literature about the Euro-area monetary policy analysing the effects of unconventional measures, the conduct of monetary policy by the European central bank and the effects of the crisis on the economic structures of member countries.
The first chapter deals with the effects of unconventional monetary policy measures implemented since 2007 to cope with the financial and sovereign debt crisis. The focus is on government bond yields as they as they became the direct expression of the sovereign debt crisis in the Euro area, and it deals with two aspects of the transmission mechanism: the first one is the expectational channel and the second one is the effect of liquidity injections. Results show that the effect of unconventional monetary policies are not unique inside the monetary union but vary across countries and over time. In particular, the unfolding of the European sovereign debt crisis completely changed the impact of liquidity injections as they led to a rise in interest rate spreads for highly indebted countries.
The second chapter analyzes the conduct of monetary policy in the Euro area over the period 1999-2013 by estimating several monetary policy reaction functions with time-varying coefficients and heteroskedastic error terms. This allows to evaluate whether relevant shifts in the conduct of monetary policy occurred and whether the current financial crisis had an influence on that. Results show that the sensitivity of the ECB towards inflation and output gap changed along the time span and mainly after 2008 as it also started to respond to new variables like bank loans and sovereign bond yield spreads.
The third chapter analyzes the effects of the recent economic crisis in the Euro area in light of international structural macroeconomic relationships. This is achieved through a conditional forecast exercise. By comparing the forecast with the actual path of the Euro-area variables it is possible to evaluate whether, given the effects of the crisis in US, pre-crisis structural macroeconomic relationship are able to explain Euro-area economic developments during the crisis. Results show that the effects of the crisis have been much more heterogeneous than what implied by structural relationships and the crisis shock suggesting that either a structural break or a strong idiosyncratic shock affected the Euro area after 2008. Finally, the sovereign debt crisis by itself seems not to be able to explain neither business-cycle and inflation heterogeneity, nor the recent recession and economic slack.
24
Alouini, Olfa. « Country size, growth and the economic and monetary union ». Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/16609.
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Der Zweck dieser Arbeit ist es, die Beziehung zwischen die Größe des Landes und das Wachstum auf internationaler Ebene und vergleichsweise in der Wirtschafts-und Währungsunion zu untersuchen und erarbeiten ihre Folgen für das Verhalten der wachstumsorientierte Finanzpolitik. Um ein globales Verständnis des Zusammenhangs zwischen Größe des Landes und das Wachstum in der EWU weiter verfolgen wir einen interdisziplinären Ansatz, einschließlich der makroökonomischen Modellierung (DSGE), Ökonometrie und Analyse der politischen Ökonomie. Die Kombination dieser Untersuchungen schließen wir, dass die Größe des Landes einen Einfluss auf die wirtschaftlichen Strukturen der Nationen, die Auswirkungen ihrer Politik und damit auf ihre Wachstumsdynamik hat. Aus diesem Grund ist es notwendig, die Bedeutung der Größe des Landes und ihre Folgen für die WWU wieder.The purpose of this dissertation is to investigate the relationship between country size and growth at the international level and comparatively in the Economic and Monetary Union, and to draw up its consequences for the conduct of growth-orientated fiscal policies. To further a global understanding of the link between country size and growth in the EMU, we follow an interdisciplinary approach, including macro-economic modelling (DSGE), econometrics and political economy analysis. Combining these analyses, we conclude that country size has an incidence on the economic structures of nations, the effects of their policies and therefore on their pace of growth. For this reason there is a need to reinstate the importance of country size and its consequences for the EMU.
25
GARNIER, Julien. « Aspects of business cycle transmission in Europe ». Doctoral thesis, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1814/4932.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Defence date: 28 February 2006Examining board: Prof. Mike Artis, supervisor, EUI ; Prof. Anindya Banerjee, EUI ; Prof. Lionel Fontaigné, CEPII, Paris ; Denise Osborne, University of Manchester
First made available online on 21 August 2019
26
Farroukh, Abed El Karim. « Business Cycles and Stock Market Returns Predictability Evidence from Continental Europe ». Master's thesis, 2016. https://repositorio-aberto.up.pt/handle/10216/83704.
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Farroukh, Abed El Karim. « Business Cycles and Stock Market Returns Predictability Evidence from Continental Europe ». Dissertação, 2016. https://repositorio-aberto.up.pt/handle/10216/83704.
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Gonçalves, Daniel Fernandes. « Business cycle dynamics across Europe : a cluster analysis ». Master's thesis, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10071/13216.
Texte intégralRésumé :
JEL Classification: E32, E37This dissertation aims to analyze the dynamics of business cycles across European countries between 1960Q1 and 2016Q1. For such purpose we identify country-groups of national deviation cycles through Hierarchical Agglomerative Clustering with the Ward’s method. The clustering technique suggests the existence of three country-groups, which include, aside from other countries, France and Spain in Cluster 1, United Kingdom and Denmark in Cluster 2 and Germany and Italy in Cluster 3. We execute an extensive analysis on business cycle stylized facts, synchronization and turning points detection over the clusters’ deviation cycles. Further on, we analyze the propagation of economic shocks through a VAR model, over which we study Granger-causalities, Impulse Response Functions and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition. Our results show that both Cluster 1 and Cluster 2 share similar cyclical characteristics when compared to Cluster 3. Nevertheless, Cluster 1 and Cluster 3 appear to be the most synchronous pair, and simultaneously verify the largest proportion of time spent in the same cyclical phase. We show that there has been an increasing business cycle synchronization in Europe since the beginning of the 90’s. The structural analysis shows that Cluster 1 and Cluster 2 have the strongest permanent cumulative shocks, whereas Cluster 3 induces not only the weakest impulses but also explains the smallest fraction of the counterparts’ forecast error variance decomposition. These conclusions question the "German Dominance" hypothesis and allow the identification of alternative major economic propellers in Europe.
A presente tese pretende analisar as dinâmicas dos ciclos económicos na Europa no período compreendido entre 1960Q1 e 2016Q1. Como tal, procedemos à identificação de grupos de ciclos económicos nacionais através de Clusterização Hierárquica Aglomerativa com o método de Ward. A Clusterização sugere a existência de três grupos que incluem, além de outros países, França e Espanha no Cluster 1, Reino Unido e Dinamarca no Cluster 2, e Alemanha e Itália no Cluster 3. Analisamos as principais características, sincronização e cronologia de pontos de inflexão dos ciclos económicos dos clusters. Estudamos ainda a propagação de choques económicos com um modelo VAR, sobre o qual concluímos sobre causalidade à Granger, funções de impulso-resposta e decomposição de variância. Os resultados mostram que o Cluster 1 e Cluster 2 apresentam maiores semelhanças nas características dos seus ciclos quando comparados ao Cluster 3. Simultaneamente, o Cluster 1 e Cluster 3 apresentam quer o maior nível de sincronização quer a maior fração de tempo partilhada na mesma fase cíclica. Concluímos também que o nível de sincronização dos ciclos económicos na Europa apresenta uma tendência crescente, especialmente após os anos 90. A análise estrutural conclui que o Cluster 1 e Cluster 2 produzem os choques permanentes mais fortes, enquanto que o Cluster 3 induz os impulsos mais fracos, além de explicar a menor parte da decomposição de variância do erro de previsão dos restantes. As presentes conclusões questionam a hipótese de "Domínio Alemão" e permitem a identificação de outros propulsores económicos na Europa.
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MUSSO, Alberto. « An analysis of the Euro area business cycle ». Doctoral thesis, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1814/5016.
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Defence date: 18 November 2005Examining Board: Prof. Mike Artis, supervisor ; Prof. Anindya Banerjee ; Prof. Denise Osborn, University of Manchester ; Prof. Gabriel Perez Quiroz, Economic Bureau of the President, Madrid
First made available online 5 September 2016
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Peng, Ciao-Ting, et 彭巧婷. « The European Business Cycle : a perspective in unemployment rate ». Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/f4kkv6.
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碩士淡江大學
產業經濟學系碩士班
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After the global financial turmoil, the euro-zone countries resulting in rising unemployment and other issues in recent years, issues related to the unemployment rate more attention. And comparison to other financial indicators, the unemployment rate can be described by the characteristics of the labor market. This study would like to know whether the euro area member states tend to cyclical fluctuations in consistency because monetary union strategy to achieve the effect of regional integration and an enabling environment for the formation of the single currency. In 1998 the European Commission published the initial 11 countries were analyzed for the study, observed after the league euro will affect the effect of regional integration in Europe. Based on the current account balance to GDP ratio of the average annual divided into two groups with surplus countries and deficit countries, which represent the core euro area economies and the peripheral economies. The results showed that, as from January 1993 to December 2001 the integration of the transition to the euro conversion period, euro area core countries are not synchronized with the periphery countries . After the release of euro during January 2002 to June 2012 period, the euro area core countries - Austria, France, Belgium, Finland, Germany, Luxembourg and Netherlands, the economic volatility in OECD countries showing positive cyclical synchronization . in conclusion, the core countries and the periphery countries constitution, structure and mode of development there are differences, preventing the performance of the business cycle synchronization, will affect the development of the monetary union.
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Rubina, Stanislav. « Assessment of Czech and European Business Cycle Co-movements ». Master's thesis, 2013. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-167696.
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Zienius, Rimas. « Economic growth and business cycles movements in Baltic and Western European countries ». Master's thesis, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10773/31500.
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The present dissertation has as main goal analyze the differences of economic growth dynamics between Baltic countries and Western European countries. With this purpose data from OECD database was studied for the countries of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Germany, France and United Kingdom. The analyzed period was the years from 1995 to 2017. The research consists of two main parts: analysis of the business cycle stages and the factors that affect GDP growth in Baltic and Western European countries. To identify business cycles stages we used the Hodrick-Prescott Filter and for the identifications and analysis of the variables affecting GDP growth we use GARCH and VAR models. The evidence shows different synchronization between Baltic and Western Europe countries business cycles. Baltic countries business cycles are more affected by local events, while Western European business cycles are affected by global economy growth. Moreover, it was find out those Baltic countries macroeconomic variables have higher instability compared with France, United Kingdom and Germany. Investment growth, share price growth and EU GDP growth have higher effect on GDP fluctuations in Baltic countries than in Western European countries. Using graphical analysis it was found that share price index decline, asset price decline and interest rate growth were signals for Baltic countries downturns period during 2008-2009 and 1998-1999.A presente dissertação tem como objetivo principal analisar as diferenças da dinâmica de crescimento económico existente entre os Países Bálticos e um conjunto de países da Europa Ocidental. Com este objetivo, foram estudadosos países da Lituânia, Letónia, Estónia, Alemanha, França e Reino Unido com base em dados retirados da base de dados da OCDE. O período analisado foi de 1995 a 2017. A investigação realizada divide-se em duas partes principais: análise das fases do ciclo de económico e dos fatores que afetam o crescimento do PIB nos Países Bálticos e nos Países da Europa Ocidental considerados. Para identificar as fases dos ciclos económicos foi utilizadoo filtro de Hodrick-Prescott e para a identificação e análise das variáveis que afetam o crescimento do PIB foram aplicados os modelos GARCH e VAR. As evidências mostram diferentes sincronizações entre os ciclos económicos dos países Bálticos e da Europa Ocidental. Os ciclos económicos dos Países Bálticos são mais afetados por eventos locais, enquanto os ciclos económicos da Europa Ocidental são afetados pelo crescimento da economia global. Além disso, pode-se concluir que as variáveis macroeconómicas dos Países Bálticos apresentam uma maior instabilidade em comparação com a França, o Reino Unido e a Alemanha. O crescimento do investimento, o aumento dos preços das ações e o crescimento do PIB da UE têm um maior efeito sobre as flutuações do PIB nos países Bálticos do que nos países da Europa Ocidental. Usando a análise gráfica, foi descoberto que o declínio do índice de preços e o declínio do preço dos ativos das taxas de juro foram sinais de desaceleração nos países Bálticos nos períodos de 2008-2009 e 1998-1999.
Mestrado em Economia
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Böwer, Uwe [Verfasser]. « Synchronisation of business cycles in the enlarged European Union / vorgelegt von Uwe Böwer ». 2007. http://d-nb.info/983270899/34.
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Gonçalves, Telma Catarina Martins. « A liquidez do mercado acionista antecipa o ciclo económico na Europa ? » Master's thesis, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10071/11619.
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Classificação JEL: E32, G10Pode a liquidez do mercado acionista antecipar a evolução do ciclo económico na Europa? A análise empírica, que incidiu sobre sete países europeus no período entre 1992 e 2012, sugere que a liquidez contém informação relevante sobre a evolução da economia. Verifica-se que a liquidez enfraquece antes da economia abrandar. Esse efeito é mais pronunciado quando se considera a liquidez de empresas de pequena dimensão, como se comprova para as empresas constituintes do Índice STOXX Europe 600 (STOXX 600). Em todos os ensaios empíricos realizados verificou-se uma relação de causalidade unidirecional, no sentido de a liquidez e a sua variação causarem «à Granger» a variação do Produto Interno Bruto. Aquelas conclusões vêm corroborar as obtidas no estudo pioneiro de Naes et al. (2011) para os EUA e para a Noruega e reforçam a importância de explorar a relação entre liquidez e variáveis macroeconómicas em outros mercados, bem como conhecer os fatores que a podem influenciar. Nessa perspetiva, e tendo em conta que a transparência é um determinante da liquidez e que a informação não financeira de cariz ambiental, social e de governo tem ganhado importância, testou-se a hipótese da liquidez das empresas que integram o Índice STOXX 600 ser sensível ao grau de divulgação daquela informação no que respeita à sua capacidade de antecipação do ciclo económico. Os resultados sugerem a verificação da hipótese. A resposta afirmativa à pergunta de investigação pode proporcionar a definição de políticas monetárias mais assertivas e contribuir para antecipar crises.
May the stock market's liquidity be a leading indicator of the business cycle in Europe? The empirical analysis, assessed on seven countries between 1992 and 2012, suggests that liquidity holds relevant information about the evolution of economy. It is observed that market liquidity weakens before the deceleration of economy. That effect is sharper when small firms’ liquidity is taken into account, as it was verified by STOXX Europe 600 Index (STOXX 600) stocks. In all the empirical essays undertaken there was a one-way Granger causality from market liquidity and its variation to the variation of the Gross Domestic Product. Those conclusions support the ones obtained by the pioneer study of Naes et al. (2011) made for the USA and Norway, and reinforce the importance of exploring the relation between liquidity and macroeconomic variables, as well as acknowledge the factors that might influence it. In view of this, and given that transparency is a liquidity determinant and also that non- financial information about environmental, social and governance issues has gained significance, it was tested the hypothesis of the STOXX 600 firms’ liquidity be sensitive to the degree of disclosure of that information, regarding the liquidity’s capacity to explain the evolution of the business cycle. The results suggest the verification of the hypothesis. The affirmative answer to the investigation's question may provide the definition of increasingly assertive monetary policies and contribute to the anticipation of crisis.
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Rodrigues, Miguel João de Figueiredo. « Business Cycle Synchronization Between the Euro Area and The Central and Eastearn European Countries Member States of The Eu : A Markov switching Regime Model Approach ». Master's thesis, 2007. https://repositorio-aberto.up.pt/handle/10216/112873.
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Rodrigues, Miguel João de Figueiredo. « Business Cycle Synchronization Between the Euro Area and The Central and Eastearn European Countries Member States of The Eu : A Markov switching Regime Model Approach ». Dissertação, 2007. https://repositorio-aberto.up.pt/handle/10216/112873.
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Paredes, José Alberto Martins. « Factos estilizados do ciclo de negócios na União Europeia 28 : uma análise comparada da República Checa, Alemanha, Itália, Holanda, Portugal e Reino Unido ». Master's thesis, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.14/23611.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Este trabalho tem como principal objetivo identificar as principais diferenças e semelhanças dos factos estilizados do ciclo de negócios das economias de 6 Estados Membros da União Europeia 28 – República Checa, Alemanha, Itália, Holanda, Portugal e Reino Unido – no período 1995-2015. A visão do ciclo de negócios assumida é neoclássica e Nova Keynesiana: o ciclo de negócios corresponde a flutuações de curto prazo da atividade económica em torno da sua tendência de longo prazo; as flutuações são causadas, na sua maioria, por choques do lado da procura e o mecanismo de propagação assenta, principalmente, na rigidez de preços e/ou falhas de mercado.
A metodologia do trabalho engloba uma revisão da literatura e a realização de um estudo empírico. Na revisão de literatura são descritas as principais escolas macroeconómicas, numa perspetiva neoclássica, e a visão do ciclo de negócios respetiva, os factos estilizados do ciclo de negócios (muito emanados da economia americana) e, ainda, algumas das mais conhecidas técnicas de extração da componente cíclica das variáveis consideradas, justificando-se a escolha do filtro HP. A análise empírica, centra-se nas correlações entre as componentes cíclicas das diversas variáveis macroeconómicas e do PIB real, contemporâneo e desfasado, para cada uma das economias em análise, no período considerado.
Os resultados revelam que existem determinadas variáveis macroeconómicas, como as componentes da despesa, a balança de bens e serviços, o emprego, o desemprego, a produtividade do trabalho, os salários, o índice de preços dos ativos financeiros cotados em bolsa e os agregados monetários (principalmente o M1) que apresentam um comportamento relativamente semelhante em todos os países e consistente com a literatura existente. No entanto, as restantes variáveis, ou seja, a balança corrente, a poupança bruta, o crédito, as taxas de juro, a taxa de inflação e os saldos das contas do Estado têm um comportamento muito divergente de economia para economia, nem sempre consistente com o que consta na literatura. Adicionalmente, constata-se que as taxas de juro nominais de curto prazo têm uma correlação muito diferente nos Estados Membros mais e menos afetados pela crise. Os resultados questionam a adequação da política monetária, definida para a Zona Euro pelo Banco Central Europeu, aos vários Estados Membros e sugerem a necessidade de utilizar também a política fiscal, a par da política monetária, na estabilização do ciclo.The purpose of this work is to identify the main differences and similarities between the Stylized Facts of the Business Cycle of the economies of 6 European Member States - Czech Republic, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal and United Kingdom - in the period 1995-2015. The vision of the business cycle adopted is neoclassical and New Keynesian: the business cycle is seen as short-run fluctuations of the economy around its long-run growth trend; these fluctuations are mainly caused by demand side shocks and price rigidities and/or market failures are seen as the propagation mechanism of the business cycle. The methodology of this work comprises a literature review and an empirical study. In the literature review, the main macroeconomic schools of thought, from a neoclassical perspective, and their view of the business cycle, the stylized facts of business cycles and some of the most known filters used for the extraction of the cyclical component of variables, are described, and the use of the HP filter is justified. The empirical study focus is on the correlations between the cyclical components of each variable and the cyclical component of contemporaneous, leading or lagging real GDP. Results show that the main components of GDP, the balance of trade, the employment, the unemployment, the labor productivity, the salaries (nominal and real), the stock market and the monetary aggregates (mainly M1) exhibit a very similar behavior in all the economies, and very consistent with the existent literature. However, the other variables, which are, the current account balance, the gross savings, the credit, the short-term interest rates and the government account balances have a very dissonant behavior across the economies, not very much consistent with the literature. Furthermore, is possible to notice, that the short-term nominal interest rates have a completely different behavior in the Euro Zone´s Member States that were more affected by the crisis and the ones that were not so affected. Results raise questions on the adequacy of the monetary policy, defined for the Euro Zone by the European Central Bank, for the several Member States and / or on the need to have fiscal policy stabilizing the cycle alongside the monetary policy.
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Δημητρακοπούλου, Μαρία. « Ασυμμετρίες και διάχυση των οικονομικών κύκλων στη διευρυμένη Ευρώπη ». Thesis, 2006. http://nemertes.lis.upatras.gr/jspui/handle/10889/3830.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Στην παρούσα εργασία επιχειρούμε να διερευνήσουμε το βαθμό στον οποίο οι οικονομικοί κύκλοι μεταξύ των χωρών-μελών στη διευρυμένη Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση των 25 χωρών εμφανίζονται ή όχι συγχρονισμένοι και επιπλέον εξετάζουμε την πιθανότητα ύπαρξης ασυμμετριών. Το θεωρητικό πλαίσιο της ανάλυσής μας στηρίζεται στη Θεωρία της Άριστης Νομισματικής Περιοχής, στην οποία αναφερόμαστε εκτενώς, παρουσιάζοντας τόσο την παραδοσιακή όσο και τη σύγχρονη προσέγγισή της, ενώ παράλληλα θίγουμε και το ζήτημα της ενδογένειας των κριτηρίων. Στη συνέχεια, παραθέτουμε αναλυτικά ένα σημαντικό μέρος της σύγχρονης εμπειρικής βιβλιογραφίας που εξετάζει το ζήτημα που μας απασχολεί, ενώ παρουσιάζουμε και ορισμένες από τις μεθοδολογικές προσεγγίσεις που έχουν υιοθετηθεί από τους ερευνητές. Στο υπόδειγμα που αναπτύσσουμε, χρησιμοποιούμε στοιχεία χρονολογικών σειρών που αφορούν σε δυο μακροοικονομικές μεταβλητές, το πραγματικό ΑΕΠ και το επίπεδο τιμών και διερευνούμε σε πρώτη φάση το βαθμό συγχρονισμού των οικονομικών κύκλων στην ΕΕ-25. Ως σημείο αναφοράς ορίζουμε τις 15 χώρες-μέλη της Ευρωπαϊκής Ένωσης (ΕΕ-15), ενώ στο δείγμα μας μεταξύ των υπόλοιπων χωρών συμπεριλαμβάνουμε και τις υποψήφιες για ένταξη στην ΕΕ χώρες. Στόχος μας είναι να προσδιορίσουμε την έκταση στην οποία η πραγματική οικονομική δραστηριότητα σε κάθε μία από τις χώρες αυτές κινείται ή όχι προς την ίδια κατεύθυνση με την ΕΕ-15.
Αναλογιζόμενοι τους μηχανισμούς μέσω των οποίων μπορεί να προκαλείται αυτή η κυκλική συσχέτιση, προχωρούμε την ανάλυσή μας ένα βήμα πιο πέρα και εξετάζουμε την πιθανότητα ύπαρξης ασυμμετριών στις διαταραχές. Ακολουθώντας τη μεθοδολογία SVAR, εκτιμούμε για κάθε μία χώρα τα σχετικά υποδείγματα, επιδιώκοντας αρχικά να αναγνωρίσουμε τις διαρθρωτικές διαταραχές με τις οποίες έρχονται αντιμέτωπες οι εξεταζόμενες οικονομίες. Στη συνέχεια, υπολογίζουμε το βαθμό της συμμετρίας που παρουσιάζουν οι διαταραχές συνολικής ζήτησης και συνολικής προσφοράς ξεχωριστά για κάθε μία χώρα σε σχέση με τις αντίστοιχες διαταραχές στην ΕΕ-15.
Όσον αφορά στα αποτελέσματα της ανάλυσής μας, εστιάζουμε κυρίως στη συμπεριφορά που επιδεικνύουν τόσο τα νέα κράτη-μέλη όσο και οι υποψήφιες χώρες, ενώ επιχειρούμε και μια πρόβλεψη για το τι μέλλει γενέσθαι σε σχέση με την πολυσυζητημένη ευρωπαϊκή διεύρυνση.This paper seeks to explore the extent to which economic cycles between member states in the enlarged European Union of 25 countries appear or not synchronized and further examines the possible existence of asymmetries. The theoretical framework of our analysis is based on the Theory of Optimum Currency Area, to which we refer extensively, presenting both traditional and modern approach, while addressing the question of endogeneity criteria. Then, we present in detail an important part of modern empirical literature examining the issue before us, while also highlighting some of the methodological approaches adopted by researchers. In our model we use time-series data related to two macroeconomic variables, real GDP and price level and explore initially the degree of synchronization between business cycles in EU-25. As a point of reference we define the 15 member countries of the European Union (EU-15), whereas in our sample among the remaining countries we include the candidate countries for EU membership. Our goal is to determine the extent to which real economic activity in each of these countries is moving or not in the same direction with the EU-15. Considering the mechanisms by which this cyclic correlation can be caused, we proceed our analysis a step further and examine the possible existence of asymmetries in shocks. Following the SVAR methodology, we estimate for each country relevant models, seeking initially to identify the structural shocks experienced by the economies concerned. Then, we calculate the degree of symmetry of aggregate demand and aggregate supply shocks separately for each country in relation to the respective shocks in the EU-15. Regarding the results of our analysis, we focus mainly on the behaviour shown by both the new member states and candidate countries, while attempting a prediction about what happens next in relation to the much-discussed EU enlargement.
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FOUŇOVÁ, Michaela. « Postup při zpracování a realizaci projektu v rámci Strukturálních fondů ». Master's thesis, 2008. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-49754.
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The main aim of this dissertation is to provide a practical guide for entrepreneurs in the field of structure funds EU, describing of necessary information, which are important in area of project preparation, administration, realization and finalization. This guide should contribute to easier orientation of applicants in the structure funds area, improve quality of submitted projects and in consequence increase amount of drawing from structure funds EU in the Czech Republic.
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NORDI, FRANCESCA. « ESSAYS IN PUBLIC ECONOMICS AND POLICY ». Doctoral thesis, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/11570/3117245.
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Spatial interaction in local expenditures among Italian municipalities: evidence from Italy 2001-2011 - I estimate a spatial autoregressive dynamic panel data model, using information on 5,564 Italian municipalities over the period 2001-2011, exploiting their border contiguity as a measure of spatial neighborhood. I find a positive and statistically significant effect of neighboring expenditures on total, capital and current expenditures of a given municipality. These results are robust to the use of alternative weighting matrices for the definition of spatial neighbors and also when I employ a quasi-natural experimental approach, which exploits the exogenous variation in the neighbors’ spending induced by the devastating earthquake that in 2009 hit municipalities belonging to the Abruzzo region. Moreover, I do not find any evidence of yardstick competition when I take into account political effects, while I do find a negative relationship between spatial interaction and the size of the municipality. Thus, I conclude that spillover effects drive the strategic interactions in spending decisions among Italian municipalities.The political budget cycle of EU Funds’ spending process: Evidence from Italian municipalities - This article focuses on the dynamic of the European Structural funds’ utilization at municipal level. I investigate the presence of Political Budget Cycle (PBC) demonstrating that mayors exploit the possibility to implement projects in their territory in order to send out a signal for the electorate. I estimate the existence of a causal relationship between PBC and the probability to start or end at least one EU projects, between PBC and the number of projects started or ended and between PBC and fragmentation of the EU projects realized. I use information on 3,102 Italian municipalities over the period 2007-2014, also distinguishing between municipalities of Convergence objective regions and Competition and employment objective regions (objective’s European classification for EU Structural Funds). I find evidence of the existence of PBC in the dynamic of EU structural funds’ process, with differences related to the nature of projects realized linked to EU Objectives.
The employment protection legislation in Italy: different restricted firms’ reaction to a tax rate cut - This article investigates the effect that Italian Employment Protection Legislation can have on firms’ performance and in the level of their employment. I use a panel dataset at firm-level for the period 2005-2011 which contains data of Italian corporations. I exploit a tax rate cut occurred in 2008 (the Ires tax) to fix a pre and a post period and divide the dataset in treated and control group. Italian EPL, regulated by the Articolo 18 of the Statuto dei lavoratori (law n. 300/1970) fixes high level of constraints for firms over the threshold of 15 employees and lower level of constraints for firms above the threshold of 15 employees. I implement an identification strategy based on a discontinuity regression design and a difference-in-differences approach, even with an unconventional use of the dummy variable pre and post. I find a negative and statistically significant effect of EPL on profitability, measured by Roe and Roa, and on the level of employment. Firms less constraints by EPL, below the limit of 15 employees, show a positive reaction to the tax rate cut if compared to the firms above the limit of 15 employees.