Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Bivariate Failure Return Period »
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Articles de revues sur le sujet "Bivariate Failure Return Period"
1
Kang, Ling, Shangwen Jiang, Xiaoyong Hu et Changwen Li. « Evaluation of Return Period and Risk in Bivariate Non-Stationary Flood Frequency Analysis ». Water 11, no 1 (4 janvier 2019) : 79. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w11010079.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The concept of a traditional return period has long been questioned in non-stationary studies, and the risk of failure was recommended to evaluate the design events in flood modeling. However, few studies have been done in terms of multivariate cases. To investigate the impact of non-stationarity on the streamflow series, the Yichang station in the Yangtze River was taken as a case study. A time varying copula model was constructed for bivariate modeling of flood peak and 7-day flood volume, and the non-stationary return period and risk of failure were applied to compare the results between stationary and non-stationary models. The results demonstrated that the streamflow series at the Yichang station showed significant non-stationary properties. The flood peak and volume series presented decreasing trends in their location parameters and the dependence structure between them also weakened over time. The conclusions of the bivariate non-stationary return period and risk of failure were different depending on the design flood event. In the event that both flood peak and volume are exceeding, the flood risk is smaller with the non-stationary model, which is a joint effect of the time varying marginal distribution and copula function. While in the event that either flood peak or volume exceed, the effect of non-stationary properties is almost negligible. As for the design values, the non-stationary model is characterized by a higher flood peak and lower flood volume. These conclusions may be helpful in long-term decision making in the Yangtze River basin under non-stationary conditions.
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Latif, Shahid, et Firuza Mustafa. « Bivariate Hydrologic Risk Assessment of Flood Episodes using the Notation of Failure Probability ». Civil Engineering Journal 6, no 10 (1 octobre 2020) : 2002–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.28991/cej-2020-03091599.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Floods are becoming the most severe and challenging hydrologic issue at the Kelantan River basin in Malaysia. Flood episodes are usually thoroughly characterized by flood peak discharge flow, volume and duration series. This study incorporated the copula-based methodology in deriving the joint distribution analysis of the annual flood characteristics and the failure probability for assessing the bivariate hydrologic risk. Both the Archimedean and Gaussian copula family were introduced and tested as possible candidate functions. The copula dependence parameters are estimated using the method-of-moment estimation procedure. The Gaussian copula was recognized as the best-fitted distribution for capturing the dependence structure of the flood peak-volume and peak-duration pairs based on goodness-of-fit test statistics and was further employed to derive the joint return periods. The bivariate hydrologic risks of flood peak flow and volume pair, and flood peak flow and duration pair in different return periods (i.e., 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years) were estimated and revealed that the risk statistics incrementally increase in the service lifetime and, at the same instant, incrementally decrease in return periods. In addition, we found that ignoring the mutual dependency can underestimate the failure probabilities where the univariate events produced a lower failure probability than the bivariate events. Similarly, the variations in bivariate hydrologic risk with the changes of flood peak in the different synthetic flood volume and duration series (i.e., 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years return periods) under different service lifetimes are demonstrated. Investigation revealed that the value of bivariate hydrologic risk statistics incrementally increases over the project lifetime (i.e., 30, 50, and 100 years) service time, and at the same time, it incrementally decreases in the return period of flood volume and duration. Overall, this study could provide a basis for making an appropriate flood defence plan and long-lasting infrastructure designs. Doi: 10.28991/cej-2020-03091599 Full Text: PDF
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Tosunoğlu, Fatih, Gianfausto Salvadori et Muhammet Yilmaz. « Multivariate Assessment of Low-Flow Hazards via Copulas : The Case Study of the Çoruh Basin (Turkey) ». Water 12, no 10 (13 octobre 2020) : 2848. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12102848.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Bivariate modeling and hazard assessment of low flows are performed exploiting copulas. 7-day low flows observed, respectively, in the upper, middle and lower parts of the Çoruh basin (Turkey) are examined, considering three pairs of certified stations located in different sub-basins. A thorough statistical analysis indicates that the GEV distribution can be used to model the marginal behavior of the low-flow. The joint distributions at each part are modeled via a dozen of copula families. As a result, the Husler–Reiss copula adequately fits the joint low flows in the upper part, while the t-Student copula turns out to best fit the other parts. In order to assess the low-flow hazard, these copulas are then used to compute joint return periods and failure probabilities under a critical bivariate “AND” hazard scenario. The results indicate that the middle and lower parts of the Çoruh basin are likely to experience the largest drought hazards. As a novelty, the statistical tools used allow to objectively quantify drought threatening in a thorough multivariate perspective, which involves distributional analysis, frequency analysis (return periods) and hazard analysis (failure probabilities).
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Gu, Lei, Jie Chen, Jiabo Yin, Sylvia C. Sullivan, Hui-Min Wang, Shenglian Guo, Liping Zhang et Jong-Suk Kim. « Projected increases in magnitude and socioeconomic exposure of global droughts in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer climates ». Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24, no 1 (28 janvier 2020) : 451–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-451-2020.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Abstract. The Paris Agreement sets a long-term temperature goal to hold global warming to well below 2.0 ∘C and strives to limit it to 1.5 ∘C above preindustrial levels. Droughts with either intense severity or a long persistence could both lead to substantial impacts such as infrastructure failure and ecosystem vulnerability, and they are projected to occur more frequently and trigger intensified socioeconomic consequences with global warming. However, existing assessments targeting global droughts under 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C warming levels usually neglect the multifaceted nature of droughts and might underestimate potential risks. This study, within a bivariate framework, quantifies the change in global drought conditions and corresponding socioeconomic exposures for additional 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C warming trajectories. The drought characteristics are identified using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) combined with the run theory, with the climate scenarios projected by 13 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) under three representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The copula functions and the most likely realization are incorporated to model the joint distribution of drought severity and duration, and changes in the bivariate return period with global warming are evaluated. Finally, the drought exposures of populations and regional gross domestic product (GDP) under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are investigated globally. The results show that within the bivariate framework, the historical 50-year droughts may double across 58 % of global landmasses in a 1.5 ∘C warmer world, while when the warming climbs up to 2.0 ∘C, an additional 9 % of world landmasses would be exposed to such catastrophic drought deteriorations. More than 75 (73) countries' populations (GDP) will be completely affected by increasing drought risks under the 1.5 ∘C warming, while an extra 0.5 ∘C warming will further lead to an additional 17 countries suffering from a nearly unbearable situation. Our results demonstrate that limiting global warming to 1.5 ∘C, compared with 2 ∘C warming, can perceptibly mitigate the drought impacts over major regions of the world.
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Latif, Shahid, et Slobodan P. Simonovic. « Parametric Vine Copula Framework in the Trivariate Probability Analysis of Compound Flooding Events ». Water 14, no 14 (13 juillet 2022) : 2214. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w14142214.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The interaction between oceanographic, meteorological, and hydrological factors can result in an extreme flooding scenario in the low-lying coastal area, called compound flooding (CF) events. For instance, rainfall and storm surge (or high river discharge) can be driven by the same meteorological forcing mechanisms, tropical or extra-tropical cyclones, resulting in a CF phenomenon. The trivariate distributional framework can significantly explain compound events’ statistical behaviour reducing the associated high-impact flood risk. Resolving heterogenous dependency of the multidimensional CF events by incorporating traditional 3D symmetric or fully nested Archimedean copula is quite complex. The main challenge is to preserve all lower-level dependencies. An approach based on decomposing the full multivariate density into simple local building blocks via conditional independence called vine or pair-copulas is a much more comprehensive way of approximating the trivariate flood dependence structure. In this study, a parametric vine copula of a drawable (D-vine) structure is introduced in the trivariate modelling of flooding events with 46 years of observations of the west coast of Canada. This trivariate framework searches dependency by combining the joint impact of annual maximum 24-h rainfall and the highest storm surge and river discharge observed within the time ±1 day of the highest rainfall event. The D-vine structures are constructed in three alternative ways by permutation of the conditioning variables. The most appropriate D-vine structure is selected using the fitness test statistics and estimating trivariate joint and conditional joint return periods. The investigation confirms that the D-vine copula can effectively define the compound phenomenon’s dependency. The failure probability (FP) method is also adopted in assessing the trivariate hydrologic risk. It is observed that hydrologic events defined in the trivariate case produce higher FP than in the bivariate (or univariate) case. It is also concluded that hydrologic risk increases (i) with an increase in the service design life of the hydraulic facilities and (ii) with a decrease in return periods.
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Shiau, J. T. « Return period of bivariate distributed extreme hydrological events ». Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA) 17, no 1-2 (1 mai 2003) : 42–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00477-003-0125-9.
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Li, Qian, Liutong Chen, Zhengtao Yan et Yingjun Xu. « Exploration of Copula Models Use in Risk Assessment for Freezing and Snow Events : A Case Study in Southern China ». Sustainability 14, no 5 (23 février 2022) : 2568. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14052568.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Due to cold waves, low and extremely low temperatures occur every winter. Sudden cooling can cause freezing and snow disasters, which seriously affect transportation, power, safety, and other activities, resulting in serious economic losses. Based on precipitation and average temperature data from 258 national meteorological stations over the past 70 years, this study established a historical freezing and snow event data set, extracting the accumulated precipitation intensity (API) and accumulated temperature intensity (ATI). We selected the optimal distribution function and joint distribution function for each station and calculated the univariate and bivariate joint return periods. The return period accuracy plays an important role in risk assessment results. By comparing the calculations with the real return period for historical extreme events, we found that the bivariate joint return period based on a copula model was more accurate than the univariate return period. This is important for the prediction and risk assessment of freezing and snow disasters. Additionally, a risk map based on the joint return period showed that Jiangsu and Anhui, as well as some individual stations in the central provinces, were high-risk areas; however, the risk level was lower in Chongqing and the southern provinces.
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Stamatatou, Nikoletta, Lampros Vasiliades et Athanasios Loukas. « Bivariate Flood Frequency Analysis Using Copulas ». Proceedings 2, no 11 (3 août 2018) : 635. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/proceedings2110635.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Flood frequency estimation for the design of hydraulic structures is usually performed as a univariate analysis of flood event magnitudes. However, recent studies show that for accurate return period estimation of the flood events, the dependence and the correlation pattern among flood attribute characteristics, such as peak discharge, volume and duration should be taken into account in a multivariate framework. The primary goal of this study is to compare univariate and joint bivariate return periods of floods that all rely on different probability concepts in Yermasoyia watershed, Cyprus. Pairs of peak discharge with corresponding flood volumes are estimated and compared using annual maximum series (AMS) and peaks over threshold (POT) approaches. The Lyne-Hollick recursive digital filter is applied to separate baseflow from quick flow and to subsequently estimate flood volumes from the quick flow timeseries. Marginal distributions of flood peaks and volumes are examined and used for the estimation of typical design periods. The dependence between peak discharges and volumes is then assessed by an exploratory data analysis using K-plots and Chi-plots, and the consistency of their relationship is quantified by Kendall’s correlation coefficient. Copulas from Archimedean, Elliptical and Extreme Value families are fitted using a pseudo-likelihood estimation method, verified using both graphical approaches and a goodness-of-fit test based on the Cramér-von Mises statistic and evaluated according to the corrected Akaike Information Criterion. The selected copula functions and the corresponding joint return periods are calculated and the results are compared with the marginal univariate estimations of each variable. Results indicate the importance of the bivariate analysis in the estimation of design return period of the hydraulic structures.
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Vandenberghe, S., M. J. van den Berg, B. Gräler, A. Petroselli, S. Grimaldi, B. De Baets et N. E. C. Verhoest. « Joint return periods in hydrology : a critical and practical review focusing on synthetic design hydrograph estimation ». Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 9, no 5 (31 mai 2012) : 6781–828. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-9-6781-2012.
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Abstract. Most of the hydrological and hydraulic studies refer to the notion of a return period to quantify design variables. When dealing with multiple design variables, the well-known univariate statistical analysis is no longer satisfactory and several issues challenge the practitioner. How should one incorporate the dependence between variables? How should the joint return period be defined and applied? In this study, an overview of the state-of-the-art for defining joint return periods is given. The construction of multivariate distribution functions is done through the use of copulas, given their practicality in multivariate frequency analysis and their ability to model numerous types of dependence structures in a flexible way. A case study focusing on the selection of design hydrograph characteristics is presented and the design values of a three-dimensional phenomenon composed of peak discharge, volume and duration are derived. Joint return period methods based on regression analysis, bivariate conditional distributions, bivariate joint distributions, and Kendal distribution functions are investigated and compared highlighting theoretical and practical issues of multivariate frequency analysis. Also an ensemble-based method is introduced. For a given design return period, the method chosen clearly affects the calculated design event. Eventually, light is shed on the practical implications of a chosen method.
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Requena, A. I., L. Mediero et L. Garrote. « A bivariate return period based on copulas for hydrologic dam design : accounting for reservoir routing in risk estimation ». Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 17, no 8 (1 août 2013) : 3023–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3023-2013.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Abstract. A multivariate analysis on flood variables is needed to design some hydraulic structures like dams, as the complexity of the routing process in a reservoir requires a representation of the full hydrograph. In this work, a bivariate copula model was used to obtain the bivariate joint distribution of flood peak and volume, in order to know the probability of occurrence of a given inflow hydrograph. However, the risk of dam overtopping is given by the maximum water elevation reached during the routing process, which depends on the hydrograph variables, the reservoir volume and the spillway crest length. Consequently, an additional bivariate return period, the so-called routed return period, was defined in terms of risk of dam overtopping based on this maximum water elevation obtained after routing the inflow hydrographs. The theoretical return periods, which give the probability of occurrence of a hydrograph prior to accounting for the reservoir routing, were compared with the routed return period, as in both cases hydrographs with the same probability will draw a curve in the peak-volume space. The procedure was applied to the case study of the Santillana reservoir in Spain. Different reservoir volumes and spillway lengths were considered to investigate the influence of the dam and reservoir characteristics on the results. The methodology improves the estimation of the Design Flood Hydrograph and can be applied to assess the risk of dam overtopping.
Thèses sur le sujet "Bivariate Failure Return Period"
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Isola, Matteo. « A methodology for the bivariate hydrological characterization of flood waves for river-related flood risks assessment ». Doctoral thesis, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/2158/1206050.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The Flood Directive 60/2007/EC requires the European countries to verify the
effectiveness of existing flood defence infrastructure to mitigate flood risks. The current
practice establishes that the river flood control structures must respect a basic requirement,
usually consisting of a certain safe freeboard under a design peak flow rate corresponding to a
certain probability of exceedance. This requirement has some critical issues. It is based on a
univariate frequency analysis of only flood peak, and therefore it assumes a perfect
correspondence between the probability of occurrence of the hydrological variable and the
failure of the flood-control structure. The thesis aims to define a methodology to overcome
these issues implementing a bivariate hydrological risk analysis for river-related flood risk. The
methodology is mainly focused on the overtopping failure for river levees. River levees are the
most common river flood-control structure. They are raised, predominantly earth, structures
(also called dykes, digues or embankments). The overtopping failure of a river levee caused
several flood disasters such as Elbe flood (2002), New Orleans flood (2005), Emilia Romagna
Flood (2017) or Arkansan flood (2019).
The proposed procedure is carried out through two steps: (i) the evaluation of
hydrological failure related to the overtopping risk for a levee; (ii) the estimation of the
probability of occurrence of the hydrological failure introducing the concept of the Bivariate
Failure Return Period.
The hydrological failure is determined considering the mutual interaction between a
bivariate hydrological load of peak discharge (Q) and the volume of the hydrograph (V), the
river conveyance, and the levee resistance with respect to overtopping. The bivariate
hydrological load considers an approximation of the real bivariate distribution of Q and V,
functional to determine the hydrological failure. The shape of the hydrographs is classified
concerning the overtopping introducing the Overtopping Hydrograph Shape Index (OHSI).
The hydrological failure condition is represented by a curve in Q-V space containing all the
hydrographs causing the initiation of the damage. This curve demonstrates that not only the
peak flow but also the volume of the hydrograph are essential variables to characterise the
overtopping failure.
The risk of overtopping failure is expressed by the probability of occurrence of the
hydrological failure within a new interpretation of the return period. Because of the
hydrological failure curve is a function in Q-V space, the return period is estimated in the
bivariate framework. Several definitions of the bivariate return period are available, each of
which gives a different interpretation of it. This critical issue is overcome introducing the
Bivariate Failure Return Period. The Bivariate Failure Return Period assesses the probability
of the failure curve of the hydraulic structure generating possible scenarios through a Monte
Carlo simulation. Two case studies are presented to demonstrate the applicability of the
methodology and the advantages of using it respect to the current practice. In the thesis, the methodology is also applied to the problem of flood damage estimation demonstrating the
flexibility and the validity of the proposed procedure. In this case, the hydrological failure
consists in equal-euro curve in Q-V space, which includes all the hydrographs causing the same
euro flood damages in a site.
The procedure proposed needs Q-V data at the target site where the risk is to be assessed
but most of the sites are ungauged. This issue is overcome by testing the bivariate regional
frequency analysis. It is applied to the case study of the entire Tuscany Region (Italy). By the
bivariate regional analysis, the Q-V series can be estimated at ungauged sites, and the
uncertainty is reduced at gauged sites.
Livres sur le sujet "Bivariate Failure Return Period"
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Ferreira, Marco, Adelmo Bertoldey et Scott Holan. Bayesian modelling of train door reliability. Sous la direction de Anthony O'Hagan et Mike West. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198703174.013.11.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This article discusses the results of a study in Bayesian reliability analysis concerning train door failures in a European underground system over a period of nine years. It examines failure data from forty underground trains, which were delivered to an European transportation company between November 1989 and March 1991. All of the trains were put in service from 20 March 1990 to 20 July 1992. Failure monitoring ended on 31 December 1998. The goal of the study was to find models able to assess the failure history and to predict the number of failures in future time intervals in order to help the company determine the reliability level of the train doors before warranty expiration. The article describes the development and application of a novel bivariate Poisson process as a natural way to extend the usual Poisson models for analysing the occurrence of failures in repairable systems.
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Comfort, Megan. ‘I’m the man and he’s the woman!’. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198810087.003.0005.
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This chapter discusses people’s accounts of the challenges they face when men return to the home from prison. These accounts highlight particular tensions related to shifting from a masculinity constructed in accordance with the punitive constraints and dictates of the penitentiary to one that must operate within the harsh social conditions of life for impoverished people in the ‘outside’ world. Paradoxically, although riddled with emotional distress and responding to a brutalizing environment, the masculinity enacted during the incarceration period brings elements of fulfillment to men as well as their partners, who themselves enact an incarceration-specific femininity. By contrast, once men are home, men’s and women’s understandings of what it means to ‘be a man’ shift to encompass behaviors and achievements that are difficult for men with conviction histories to attain. Thus, the profound dissatisfaction both parties feel about the failure to enact this manhood translates into conflict in the relationship.
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Daly, Ivonne M., et Ali Al-Khafaji. Intensive care management in hepatic and other abdominal organ transplantation. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780199600830.003.0371.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Care of the transplant patient post-operatively requires a multidisciplinary approach. The goal of the intensivist is to create an ideal environment for the allograft to recover from its ischaemic insult and return to normal function. An understanding of the recipient’s pretransplant physiology is essential, as the pathological states associated with organ failure may persist for weeks to months after transplant. In particular, cardiac and renal disease may impact care in the immediate post-transplant period. An understanding of immune suppressive strategies will enable the intensivist to mitigate nephrotoxic side effects of these medications and anticipate specific vulnerabilities to infection. Attention to all the details of good critical care will give the allograft and the recipient the best chance for long-term survival. The intensivist must be able anticipate problems related to surgery and early signs of allograft recovery and dysfunction. Common post-operative complications are described in this chapter.
Chapitres de livres sur le sujet "Bivariate Failure Return Period"
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Vogel, Richard M. « The Return Period of a Reservoir System Failure ». Dans Engineering Reliability and Risk in Water Resources, 273–82. Dordrecht : Springer Netherlands, 1987. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-3577-8_15.
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Gordon, Joel. « "A Country of Failure" ». Dans Nasser's Blessed Movement. American University in Cairo Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.5743/cairo/9789774167782.003.0002.
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This chapter examines the background to the Free Officers' coup d'etat and the political bickering that followed by focusing on the parliamentary regime in its last years, between January 1950 and July 23, 1952. During this period, reform-minded members of the political establishment clashed with those who continued to play politics as usual. Their failures resulted in the end of liberalism in Egypt. The chapter first provides an overview of how competing interests, both foreign and national, doomed Egypt's parliamentary order from the outset before discussing the election of a Wafdist government in 1950 and its eventual failure. It then analyzes the events that served as a prelude to the Free Officers' rising around which disaffected liberals, progressives, communists, and the Muslim Brotherhood constructed a new savior myth: that a military junta would, after imposing constitutional reform, restore parliamentary life and then return to the barracks.
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Young, John W., et John Kent. « 15. The Return to Confrontation, 1979–80 ». Dans International Relations Since 1945, 363–76. Oxford University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/hepl/9780198807612.003.0015.
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This chapter examines why the United States and the Soviet Union returned to confrontation during the period 1979–80. Despite the slow progress of the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT II), there were at least some efforts to control strategic weapons. Short-range and intermediate-range nuclear weapons, in contrast, continued to grow in number and sophistication, particularly in Europe, where NATO and Warsaw Pact forces still prepared for war against each other, despite détente. The failure to control theatre nuclear weapons led to a new twist in the European arms race at the end of the 1970s which helped to undermine recent improvements in East–West relations. The chapter first considers NATO’s ‘dual-track’ decision regarding theatre nuclear weapons, before discussing the Iranian Revolution and the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan. It concludes with an assessment of the revival of the Cold War, focusing on the so-called Carter Doctrine.
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Young, John W., et John Kent. « 15. The Return to Confrontation, 1979–80 ». Dans International Relations Since 1945. Oxford University Press, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/hepl/9780199693061.003.0019.
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This chapter examines why the United States and the Soviet Union returned to confrontation during the period 1979–1980. Despite the slow progress of the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT II), there were at least some efforts to control strategic weapons. Short-range and intermediate-range nuclear weapons, in contrast, continued to grow in number and sophistication, particularly in Europe, where NATO and Warsaw Pact forces still prepared for war against each other, despite détente. The failure to control theatre nuclear weapons led to a new twist in the European arms race at the end of the 1970s which helped to undermine recent improvements in East–West relations. The chapter first considers NATO’s ‘dual track’ decision regarding theatre nuclear weapons before discussing the Iranian Revolution and the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan. It concludes with an assessment of the revival of the Cold War, focusing on the so-called Carter Doctrine.
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Shibata, Saori. « Japan’s Absent Mode of Regulation ». Dans Contesting Precarity in Japan, 109–28. Cornell University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.7591/cornell/9781501749926.003.0007.
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This chapter demonstrates that, despite the attempts at neoliberal reform, Japan's political economy has nevertheless been unable to return to sustainable levels of economic growth similar to those experienced before the bursting of the economic bubble in 1991. If one considers the three-year centered moving average of gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Japan in the period 1961–2018, Japan's economy has consistently struggled to rise above 2-percent annual-average growth for any three-year period since 1991. In part, this is a further consequence of the inability to achieve consensus around a new mode of regulation for Japan's national economy throughout this period. Thus, Japan suffers from the absence of a mode of regulation, and its efforts at liberalization have been unsuccessfully implemented—partly as a result of the opposition to efforts at reform. Japan's process of neoliberalization has therefore been impeded, incomplete, somewhat unsuccessful, and marked more by dissension and a failure to identify an alternative institutional compromise with which to secure a return to economic growth.
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Hopkin, Jonathan. « Conclusions ». Dans Anti-System Politics, 248–58. Oxford University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190699765.003.0009.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This concluding chapter addresses the implications of anti-system politics for the future of capitalism and democracy in the advanced countries. It argues that the current wave of anti-system support reflects the ultimate failure of the project of “market liberalism,” in that the limitations of the market logic have been laid bare by the financial crisis and the inability of the free market model to deliver prosperity and security. The answer to this crisis is likely to involve a reassertion of political authority over the market: either a revival of social democracy, the guiding ideology of the inclusive capitalism of the second half of the twentieth century, or a return to the nationalism and mercantilism of the interwar period.
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Mortimer, Peter S. « Chronic peripheral oedema and lymphoedema ». Dans Oxford Textbook of Medicine, sous la direction de Jeremy Dwight, 3811–22. Oxford University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780198746690.003.0382.
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Lymph transport, not venous reabsorption, is the main process responsible for interstitial fluid drainage. Oedema develops when the microvascular filtration rate exceeds lymph drainage for a sufficient period, and any chronic oedema represents a failure of lymph drainage. In practice, any chronic oedema should be managed in the same way as lymphedema. The primary function of the lymphatic vessels is to drain the plasma filtrate within body tissues and return it to the blood circulation. Lymphatic vessels also have an important immune surveillance function, as they are the main drainage route from the tissues for immune active cells such as dendritic cells, lymphocytes, and macrophages. Intestinal lymphatics are responsible for fat absorption. Impaired lymphatic function leads to disturbed fluid homeostasis (swelling), dampened immune responses (infection), and disturbed fat homeostasis (increased peripheral fat deposition), all features of lymphoedema. Lymphatic vessels are also the preferential route for cancer spread.
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Tyler, Amanda L. « 5. Habeas corpus in the early United States ». Dans Habeas Corpus : A Very Short Introduction, 44–51. Oxford University Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/actrade/9780190918989.003.0006.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This chapter details the creation of American federal courts and their vesting with habeas jurisdiction. It likewise explores the failure of Thomas Jefferson to convince his Congress to enact a suspension to address the so-called Burr Conspiracy and how even the return of the British in the War of 1812 did not lead to a suspension, revealing an early reluctance to invoke the dramatic authority. The chapter concludes by exploring the continuing importance of the common law writ as a writ of liberty in slave cases, highlighting how judges in Northern abolitionist states used the common law writ to frustrate fugitive slave laws while often relying upon Lord Mansfield’s opinion in Somerset’s Case as support for a robust habeas writ in this context. The chapter concludes by noting that these cases laid the groundwork for a future expansive role for the writ that would come during the American Reconstruction period.
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Calvo-Gonzalez, Oscar. « The Control of Violence ». Dans Unexpected Prosperity, 21–45. Oxford University Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198853978.003.0002.
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This chapter explains why economic growth in Spain in the century and a half before 1950 was not sustained. The chapter provides evidence that the main shortcoming of economic growth in the period before 1950 was its instability. The high frequency of economic shrinking, as opposed to low rates of economic growth when the economy was expanding, is thus behind the failure to converge with more advanced economies. The chapter also draws on the insights from Douglass North and coauthors on the difference between limited and open access orders, to provide an account of why economic shrinking and inequality of opportunity remained the norm. A greater control of political violence was only achieved in the last quarter of the nineteenth century, and even then, only under a narrow elite bargain. When the political settlement between elites unraveled in the early twentieth century a return to violence ensued, undermining economic progress.
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Chotirmall, Sanjay H., et Helen Liddicoat. « Respiratory ». Dans The Pocketbook for PACES. Oxford University Press, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780199574186.003.0010.
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The MRCP PACES respiratory station offers an opportunity to demonstrate a slick examination technique that is performed on practically all patients. Respiratory diseases, after cardiovascular and musculoskeletal complaints, are the third most common cause for presentation to either the Emergency Department or the general practitioner (GP) and remains proof of the concept that ‘common things are common’. Respiratory disease can be generally divided into 3 major categories: airways, parenchymal and pleural disease. We have aimed to structure the following chapter to reflect this. Certain ‘high-yield’ or ‘favourites’ that recur in the PACES examination are covered in this section. During PACES, examiners assess your ability to both elicit and then correctly interpret physical signs. A general sense exists that a decision to pass or fail a candidate rests on an aura of competence (or incompetence!) during the clinical performance. In essence, the examiners are looking for you to demonstrate correct techniques whilst eliciting the signs and logical thinking when interpreting them. Therefore, eliciting the physical signs is only the first step; the interpretation and presentation are equally, if not more, important. With this in mind, the following useful general points should be considered: • The respiratory examination does not need to be a lengthy one. Start at the peripheries with the hands and then move to the back (unless specifically advised otherwise by your examiners). Traditionally the physical examination starts with the anterior chest but it is perfectly acceptable to do the back first then return to the front (most signs and clues to the diagnosis e.g. scars, will be detected by examining the posterior chest). • A 6-minute period is allowed for the examination portion of the station and it is our advice to spend the first 2 minutes examining the patient from a general perspective (including full inspection, hands and face) then the second 2 minutes on the posterior chest and the final 2 minutes on the anterior chest. As time is limited, palpate for features of pulmonary hypertension or right-sided heart failure at the anterior chest, before moving to the respiratory signs.
Actes de conférences sur le sujet "Bivariate Failure Return Period"
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Ridolfi, Elena, Salvatore Grimaldi et Francesco Napolitano. « A bivariate analysis of temperature and rainfall series for snowfall return period estimation ». Dans PROCEEDINGS OF THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON NUMERICAL ANALYSIS AND APPLIED MATHEMATICS 2014 (ICNAAM-2014). AIP Publishing LLC, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4912475.
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Liu, Defu, Yan Song, Hongda Shi, Yifa Yu et Li Ma. « Poisson-Logistic Compound Bivariate Extreme Distribution and Its Application for Designing of Platform Deck Clearance ». Dans ASME 2003 22nd International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering. ASMEDC, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2003-37395.
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This paper proposes a new bivariate extreme probability model-Poisson-Logistic compound extreme distribution. Because the routes and frequencies of Typhoons vary each year, the frequencies of Typhoons occurring in certain sea areas also differ from year to year. This may cause a discrete distribution. Typhoon induced sea environments may be a kind of multivariate joint extreme distribution. By compounding the discrete distribution with a bivariate distribution of two extreme maritime factors, a new distribution-Poisson-Logistic compound bivariate extreme distribution is proposed in this paper. As one of the application example, a platform deck clearance can be estimated by compounding Typhoon induced maximum wave crest height and surge with 100 yrs joint occurring return period instead of traditional method, which proposed to use separate 100 yrs return period wave create height and surge.
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Liu, Wei, Sheng Dong et Xinjie Chu. « Study on Joint Return Period of Wind Speed and Wave Height Considering Lifetime of Platform Structure ». Dans ASME 2010 29th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. ASMEDC, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2010-20247.
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Summarize the definition of design return period in existent codes and industry criteria. Joint return periods of different ocean environmental conditions are determined from the view of project life and risk probability. Based on equivalent bivariate maximum entropy distribution, joint design parameters of wave height and wind speed are estimated occurred in some place of Bohai Sea. The calculating results show that even if the return value of each environmental factor, such as wave height or wind speed, is small, their combinations usually lead to larger joint return periods. This will make the investment of ocean platform lower.
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Vanem, Erik. « Bivariate Regional Frequency Analysis of Sea State Conditions ». Dans ASME 2021 40th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2021-61988.
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Abstract This paper presents a bivariate regional frequency analysis applied to data of extreme significant wave heights and concurrent wave period over an area in the North Atlantic Ocean. It extends previous regional frequency analysis on significant wave height to the bivariate case where the joint distribution of significant wave height and zero up-crossing wave period are analysed. This is believed to be an important extension, as the joint distribution is typically needed for marine design and other ocean engineering applications. The analysis presented in this paper is based on a bivariate index-wave/period approach and assumes a common regional growth curve within homogeneous regions of the overall area. One of the main benefits of performing a regional frequency analysis as opposed to at-site analysis based on data from one location only is that more accurate predictions of extreme conditions can be obtained, due to the increased number of observations that will effectively be available. Moreover, results for locations within the regions where no observations are available can be obtained by interpolation of the index wave/period and utilizing the regional growth curve. This paper outlines the various steps and modelling choices involved in a bivariate regional frequency analysis and presents the results of such an analysis applied to 30 years of data covering the North Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, it is shown how environmental contours can be constructed based on the outcome of the bivariate RFA, corresponding to one particular definition of a bivariate return period.
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Hu, Zhen, Zhifu Zhu et Xiaoping Du. « Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis for Bivariate Responses ». Dans ASME 2015 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece2015-53441.
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Time-dependent system reliability is measured by the probability that the responses of a system do not exceed prescribed failure thresholds over a period of time. In this work, an efficient time-dependent reliability analysis method is developed for bivariate responses that are general functions of random variables and stochastic processes. The proposed method is based on single and joint upcrossing rates, which are calculated by the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). The method can efficiently produce accurate upcrossing rates for the systems with two responses. The upcrossing rates can then be used for system reliability predictions with two responses. As the general system reliability may be approximated with the results from reliability analyses for individual responses and bivariate responses, the proposed method can be extended to reliability analysis for general systems with more than two responses. Two examples, including a parallel system and a series system, are presented.
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Tao, Shanshan, Sheng Dong et Yinghui Xu. « Design Parameter Estimation of Wave Height and Wind Speed With Bivariate Copulas ». Dans ASME 2013 32nd International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2013-10519.
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The data of annual extreme wave height and corresponding wind speed at a platform in Bohai Bay is hindcasted by a numerical model from 1970 to 1993. Common-used design probability distributions, such as Gumbel distribution, Weibull distribution, and lognormal distribution are applied to fit the data of extreme wave height and concomitant wind speed, respectively. Then the best-fitted marginal distributions of annual extreme wave height and wind speed can be selected. Bivariate normal copula and Frank copula are utilized to construct joint distribution of these two random variables. Based on empirical base shear equation of the on-site fixed jacket platform, the maximum base shear can be calculated under the same joint return period of the wave height and wind speed. The results show that the proposed joint probability models constructed by bivariate copulas result in lower the design environmental parameters because of the consideration of correlation between random variables. Eventually the investment cost of marginal oil fields could be relatively reduced.
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Vanem, Erik. « Adjusting Environmental Contours for Specified Expected Number of Unwanted Events ». Dans ASME 2020 39th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2020-19293.
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Abstract Environmental contours are applied in probabilistic structural reliability analysis to identify extreme environmental conditions that may give rise to extreme loads and responses. Typically, they are constructed to correspond to a certain return period and a probability of exceedance with regards to the environmental conditions that can again be related to the probability of failure of a structure. Thus, they describe events with a certain probability of being exceeded one or more times during a certain time period, which can be found from a certain percentile of the underlying distribution. In this paper, various ways of adjusting such environmental contours to account for the expected number of exceedances within a certain time period are discussed. Depending on how such criteria are defined, one may get more lenient or more stringent criteria compared to the classical return period.
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Renugadevi, A., S. Nallayarasu et S. Karunanithi. « Evaluation of Residual Life of Existing Offshore Platforms in Western Offshore, India ». Dans ASME 2021 40th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2021-62714.
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Abstract Western offshore oil field in India has nearly 300 offshore platforms for oil and gas exploration, of which almost 50% of platforms have outlived their life. Life extension of these platforms has become essential for further production activities. In many cases, design level analyses combined with ultimate strength assessment, life extension has been granted. However, risk-based assessment based on the probability of failure based on available reserve strength linked to additional life extension could be a logical method. The Reserve Strength Ratio (RSR) is defined as a ratio of reserve capacity of the jacket structure and the design level environmental loads (1 year or 5year or 10 year or 100-year return period). The encounter probability of these design storms for the life extension period has been established probability for the extension period has been used as a threshold to determining the required RSR using the probability of collapse. For the present study, four typical aged wellhead platforms with different water depths are selected, and RSR is evaluated by carrying out push over analysis. The Monte Carlo Simulation method is used to generate the statistical values of RSR. The probability of failure is then calculated by First Order Reliability Method (FORM) using MATLAB for different RSR values. Reassessment criteria for the existing offshore platforms have been described from the reliability analysis results based on probability failure and encounter probability.
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Tang, Hung-Jie, Ray-Yeng Yang, Tzu-Chieh Wen, Po-Hung Yeh et Chai-Cheng Huang. « Numerical Simulation of the Domino Effect of Mooring System Failure for an Aquaculture Net Cage Under Waves and Currents ». Dans ASME 2020 39th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2020-18232.
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Abstract Up to date, the mooring system failure of aquaculture net cage remains a continuing problem, especially the domino effect, which often leads to huge economic losses. Thus, this study aims to investigate the domino effect of a mooring system of a net cage under waves and currents. In this study, a time-domain numerical model based on the Morison equation and the lumped mass method is applied. A full-scale net cage system widely used in a local sea area is adopted. A 50 years return period waves with a strong following current is considered to be the design condition. It can be expected that the tension on the remaining upstream anchor increases dramatically when an upstream anchor is lost. Then, the domino effect occurs if the maximum tension on the remaining anchor exceeds its design condition. Therefore, in this simulation, the initial failure is considered to be a man-made event at a preset time, but the rest failures are resulted from exceeding the breaking strength of a rope. Both the current-only condition and the wave-current condition have been examined. The results including mooring line tension, volume reduction coefficient and rigid body motion are discussed. In addition, the results show that the failure sequence of anchor is different between the current-only condition and the wave-current condition.
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Algan, Neşe, Harun Bal et Koray Yıldırım. « Foreign Trade and Hysteresis Effect : An Essay on Foreign Trade Flows in the Turkish Economy ». Dans International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c14.02634.
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There is a wide literature that temporary shocks in real exchange rates and volatility will cause structural breaks in foreign trade. As a result of temporary shocks in real exchange rates, the real exchange rate elasticity of imports decreases. The decrease in the sensitivity of the import volume to real exchange rates and the failure to return to its former levels after the temporary shock is expressed as the hysteresis situation. In case the exchange rates return to their previous levels after the temporary shock, the main dynamic of hysteresis is that the firms exhibit the behavior of staying in the market due to sunk costs. In the study, foreign trade flows in the Turkish economy were analyzed for the period 2003Q1-2021Q2 by using the asymmetry hypothesis in order to test the hysteresis effects. According to the findings obtained from the asymmetry hypothesis, the absence of a decrease in the import volume during the period of depreciation of the domestic currency indicates the existence of the hysteresis effect. The fact that the firms exhibited the behavior of staying in the market in exchange rate depreciation in the Turkish economy means that sunk costs are extremely effective in hysteresis. Based on this information, as a solution to the hysteresis effects in foreign trade flows in the Turkish economy at the point of policymaking, reducing the sunk costs in market entry to reasonable levels and ensuring stability in exchange rates come to the fore as suggestions in terms of hysteresis.