Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Bankruptcy – Industrial organization »

Subject. The number of companies filing for bankruptcy is growing. More often, the reason relates to resource imbalance, which is manifested in the lack of capacity to build-up resources. One of the key drivers of growth and development of any modern company is the availability of capital, which determines its financial potential. Objectives. The purpose of the study is to develop a methodology for assessing the financial potential of a commercial organization (an industrial enterprise in particular), based on characteristics of its determining factors. Methods. I employ general scientific methods and techniques, like analysis, grouping, systematization, and modeling. Results. The proposed methodology for assessing the financial potential of an enterprise rests on a system of interrelated indicators. Each indicator characterizes a certain factor in the formation and destruction of financial potential. These indicators are expressed in relative units of measurement and reflect different aspects of organization's activities in terms of factors that shape its financial potential. Conclusions. The findings will help enrich the methodological tools of financial management of the organization, primarily when making decisions on investment and capital mobilization.

The domestic banking sector should become one of the main driving forces of the structural reorganization of the industrial and agricultural sectors. To implement this objective, it is necessary to develop a powerful banking system based on stable banking institutions. In such conditions, the ability to manage the financial stability of banking institutions, identify signs of instability and bankruptcy in a timely manner, and, if possible, try to neutralize or eliminate them is of great significance. The necessity of implement measures aimed to stabilize the banking system in conditions of the instability of the external environment is substantiated. Peculiarities of the reorganization of banking institutions as one of the effective measures intended to avoid bankruptcy and to stabilize the financial situation are revealed, attention is paid to the need to improve the solvency of domestic banks in the conditions of economic and political instability, as well as the global financial crisis. On the basis of statistical data, the analysis of the reasons for the reorganization and termination of the activity of banking institutions is carried out, the domestic banking market and the world tendencies are compared. According to the analysis of the unsatisfactory quality of banking assets, there have been identified 8 types of inadequate practices for portfolio management of loans and investments in bankrupt foreign banks, including liberalism in providing loans, significant shortcomings in financial reporting, excessive lending, incomplete documentation in the field of taxation. According to the results of the study, the possibilities of reorganization of the banking institution and termination of activity are summarized. In particular, preconditions for reorganization, purpose, and methodological principles of reorganization of commercial banks are highlighted. By its content, the form of reorganization can be unifying, distributive and reorganization can be performed through transformation. Unifying forms include mergers and acquisitions. The procedure of reorganization is complicated by the mechanism for implementation and reflection in accounting and depends on what conditions it will be implemented (what status will be obtained by the future financial and credit institution). In practice, there arises a problem of the complexity of combining the balances on the accounts of the legal predecessor and successor. To solve the problem, it is proposed to add additional records into the accounting registers and new subaccounts and analytical accounts for the accounting of assets and liabilities. The types of bankruptcy are characterized according to the classification criteria and their classification is specified in various aspects (legal, control, accounting) taking into account the requirements of accounting, analysis and preparation of the corresponding reporting. The legal aspect covers all proposed types of bankruptcy, since any type of bankruptcy concerns the rights and interests of legal entities and individuals. However, not all types of bankruptcy are inherent in the control or accounting aspects. The article substantiates the list of accounting objects for various types of reorganization (merger, transformation), since the procedure of reorganization includes transactions for the registration of successor companies); the attention is focused on the problems of displaying in the accounting of claim settlements and the need for their analytical detailing, which expands information capabilities of the register of creditors’ claims, increases the transparency of information for external users and reduces the risk of non-payment. A promising direction is the improvement of organization of management accounting using the system approach, so that accounting support for the process of reorganization should be considered together with the formation of the appropriate methodology, effective management and modern information technology. The accounting policy should ensure the possibility of formation of the accounting information for the forecast of risks and possible bankruptcy of the commercial bank.

The agro-industrial complex is the leading sector of the country’s economy, which forms its agri-food market, as well as its food and economic security. Enterprises of the agro-industrial complex are currently facing certain difficulties, which are caused by the imposed sanctions and problems of import substitution. The agro-industrial complex, like any other complex multi-level system, needs effective management. It can function and develop successfully only if its management makes timely and reasonable strategic and operational decisions and coordinates the activities of all structural divisions in order to achieve common goals. The difficulties mentioned above have shaped the need to develop new approaches for more efficient management of agricultural enterprises. One of the ways to improve management in agribusiness enterprises is to build a controlling system. Controlling integrates accounting, control, planning, and analysis into a single, self-managed system. The article features the concept and essence of controlling, which is the basis for the effective management of any agricultural enterprise. One of the main reasons for the introduction of controlling in the enterprises of the agro-industrial complex is the need for a system integration of various aspects of business process management in the organizational structure of the enterprise, as controlling provides a methodological and instrumental base to support the main management functions: planning, control, regulation, accounting, and analysis. The organization, production, and development of timely high-quality controlling not only determines the efficiency of the agro-industrial complex enterprise management, but also ensures the processes of making sound management decisions that are aimed at stabilizing the financial situation, smoothing the risks of bankruptcy, as well as the preservation of assets, intellectual property, and innovation.

На сегодняшний день применение ряда моделей диагностики состояния предприятия нецелесообразно в условиях российской экономики по следующим причинам. Во-первых, применение различных моделей приводит к противоречивым результатам. Во-вторых, прогнозная точность моделей значительно уменьшается при использовании для анализа финансового состояния данных за несколько лет до банкротства. В-третьих, зарубежные модели не учитывают специфику экономической ситуации и организацию предпринимательства в России, которые отличаются, в том числе, системами бухгалтерского учета и налогового законодательства, что находит отражение как в наборе факторов-признаков, так и в весовых коэффициентах при них. В-четвертых, в моделях используются данные за один год, и не учитываются изменения показателей в динамике за несколько лет. В-пятых, существующие модели используют в своем анализе ограниченный спектр показателей, определяющих ликвидность, платежеспособность, рентабельность и, как правило, являются расширенными или измененными западными моделями 60-80 гг. XX в. Круг факторов, определяющих риск потери степени устойчивости, заметно больше, это обусловливает необходимость совершенствования моделей его оценки за счет расширения его дополнительными параметрами. To date, the use of a number of models for diagnosing the state of an enterprise is impractical in the conditions of the Russian economy for the following reasons. First, the use of different models leads to conflicting results. Secondly, the predictive accuracy of the models is significantly reduced when using data for the analysis of the financial condition of several years before bankruptcy. Thirdly, foreign models do not take into account the specifics of the economic situation and the organization of entrepreneurship in Russia, which differ, among other things, in the systems of accounting and tax legislation, which is reflected both in the set of factor-signs and in the weight coefficients for them. Fourth, the models use data for one year, and do not take into account changes in indicators over several years. Fifth, the existing models use in their analysis a limited range of indicators that determine liquidity, solvency, profitability and, as a rule, are extended or modified Western models of the 60-80s. XX century. The range of factors that determine the risk of losing the degree of stability is much larger, this necessitates the improvement of models for its assessment by expanding it with additional parameters.

The main aspects of the project approach in the system of crisis management of financial stability of an industrial enterprise are considered in the article. Definitely main factors and signs of the crisis based on the diagnosis of indicators of the financial condition of the industrial enterprise. It is established that the assessment of financial stability is one of the priority tasks in the diagnosis of crisis enterprises, the condition of which is characterized by an increased probability of bankruptcy. The forecast value of the coefficient of financial stability, which can be used to develop a financial strategy of the enterprise or corrective anti-crisis management decisions, is determined. The article proposes a method of implementing a project approach in crisis management of the enterprise. In anti-crisis management of financial stability it is expedient to apply the project approach that will give the chance to implement measures for achievement of the concrete purpose, to coordinate actions of all divisions of the enterprise; to forecast in time and in expenses the project decision of a crisis situation according to the set criteria of quality of performance of works. In addition, the project approach has all the features of the crisis management system: a team of specialists is formed to perform the tasks of crisis management; strategies for increasing the competitiveness of the enterprise are developed; optimal ways (options) of realization of system of anti-crisis measures for the purpose of increase of stability of functioning of the enterprise are made. The advantages of the project approach in crisis management of financial stability are: assessment of the current state of the enterprise; use of the company's own resources in order to reduce the cost of implementing a system of anti-crisis measures; clear delineation and definition of personal (team) responsibilities and powers; systematic approaches to determining the phenomena and factors of the crisis, as well as to the development and implementation of anti-crisis programs, due to the involvement of specialists and managers of different levels and areas of activity, in accordance with the sources of threats; increasing control over the expenditure of funds and resources aimed at anti-crisis measures, the introduction of methods for their more effective use; more effective use of the time factor in the analysis of the situation and the implementation of anti-crisis measures; qualitative increase of the level of systems and methods of internal communications. The result of this approach should be overcoming the crisis (with the subsequent transition to operational management of the organization), assessing the effectiveness of crisis measures (actions, projects) and, if necessary, the introduction of a permanent monitoring system for crisis phenomena in the organization. introduction of methods of their more effective use; more effective use of the time factor in the analysis of the situation and the implementation of anti-crisis measures; qualitative increase of the level of systems and methods of internal communications. The result of this approach should be overcoming the crisis (with the subsequent transition to operational management of the organization), assessing the effectiveness of crisis measures (actions, projects) and, if necessary, the introduction of a permanent monitoring system for crisis phenomena in the organization. introduction of methods of their more effective use; more effective use of the time factor in the analysis of the situation and the implementation of anti-crisis measures; qualitative increase of the level of systems and methods of internal communications. The result of this approach should be overcoming the crisis (with the subsequent transition to operational management of the organization), assessing the effectiveness of crisis measures (actions, projects) and, if necessary, the introduction of a permanent monitoring system for crisis phenomena in the organization.

The identification of cases of deliberate or fictitious bankruptcy of industrial sector organizations in the management of state enterprises and organizations is of great importance in ensuring economic security. The paper is devoted to the methodology of timely prevention of bankruptcy of state industrial enterprises and organizations and law enforcement practice in the field of bankruptcy. In the framework of risk management, the article analyzes the existing mechanisms for monitoring and identifying possible deterioration of financial and economic activity and the probability of bankruptcy of state industrial enterprises and organizations. The purpose of the work is to determine directions of the system development of combating unfair management decisions during the bankruptcy procedure, as well as the establishment of tools to prevent the bankruptcy of state industrial enterprises and organizations. There had been used the formal legal method in the paper, methods of complex and interdisciplinary analysis, as well as General scientific methods, including the dialectical method and the method of system analysis. As a result of the study, the main problems of law enforcement and managerial practice in detecting offenses during bankruptcy procedures are considered and the necessary areas of management and regulatory regulation are identified, an approach to identifying the threat of bankruptcy and implementing anti-crisis measures when managing state industrial enterprises and organizations is determined. The study may be of interest to public authorities in determining the methodological and regulatory framework, as well as strategies to improve the efficiency of management of state enterprises and organizations, and ensure economic security.

An important characteristic of the functioning of any economy is its stability, which expresses the ability of the economic system of the country to resist, adapt and recover from the effects of negative external influences. Timely response of the system to the changes taking place can help reduce the severity of the crisis situation and increase its resilience. The aim of the work is to study the definition of theoretical aspects of the stability of the economic system and the disclosure of factors that affect it. The article reveals the concept of system as a general scientific concept, which is defined as a set of interconnected and properly arranged elements of a particular holistic formation. The concept of economic system is defined as a set of interconnected and appropriately ordered elements of the economy that form a certain integrity, the economic structure of society, which has a common goal. The views of various scholars on the interpretation of the concept of sustainability are analyzed, and a generalized definition is established as the ability of the system to independently maintain balance between the components of the internal environment under the influence of external influences. The groups of systemic stability, which are inherent in socio-economic regional systems, have been studied. Factors that may affect the economic stability of systems are considered. It was found that the task of maintaining the stability of the system is to use the complex interdependence of various factors and processes, to launch mechanisms of self-organization and bring the system on the trajectory of sustainable operation and development. Assessing the impact of factors on the stability of the economic system can be done using the analysis of indicators that relate to both external and internal environment. Alan Limited Liability Company was selected to carry out the analysis of industrial economic stability. Based on the data of the financial statements, the calculation of stability at the enterprise level was carried out and the level of probability of bankruptcy of the considered company was investigated. The authors’ opinion on the transformation of Ukraine’s economic model from export-oriented to foreign-sustainable is studied, for which one of the steps should be the development and implementation of the State Strategy for Internal Market Development.

Introduction. Bankruptcy is the most important element of legal regulation of modern market relations. National economy has to be able to predict a potential default in the general system of anti-crisis management. Therefore, it needs advanced techniques and tools of anti-crisis diagnostics for the timely management solutions. Study objects and methods. The analytical information presented in this work is multi-tiered and reflects the all-Russian, industrywide, regional, regional-industry, and corporate levels. The research featured agricultural enterprises of the Kemerovo region. The information underwent three types of formatting: legislative, statistical, and diagnostic. Results and discussion. During the first stage, the authors assessed external factors and trends in individual components of anti-crisis diagnostics in a given economy sector against the background of all-Russian and industry-wide trends. Enterprises appeared sensitive to bankruptcy risk; the trend decreased in 2014–2018. The second stage involved developing of a selective-indicative model for diagnosing insolvency of Russian organizations. The model took into account regional and industrial traits and focuses on large and medium-sized agricultural enterprises in the region. The model selected general indicators from a set of studied parameters, formed from fifty financial ratios presented in twenty-two of the most well-known methods of anti-crisis analysis. Bankruptcy was diagnosed on the basis of preference matrix, according to the criterion of the active use of coefficients in analytical practice. A comparative analysis of bankruptcy criteria and indicators made it possible to define the degree of adequacy of the set of indicators. Four analytical vectors were defined after thematic grouping of the identified indicators: balance sheet liquidity (current liquidity ratio), property and capital structure (financial dependence and asset mobility ratios), security (working capital ratio with own circulating assets), efficiency (economic profitability, or loss ratio, and the ratio of business activity in the market). The equation of rating assessment of the insolvency probability demonstrated the total impact of these indicators, taking into account their individual “equity participation” in the aggregate of key parameters. Conclusion. The final set of general exponents of the diagnostic model can be qualified as a neuro-analogue of “classical” models that ignores the values of the regression coefficients, which are usually not adapted to Russian realities. The model built on the basis of bankruptcy indicators, taking into account their individual “equity participation” in the rating number, can be used as a flexible methodological tool for diagnosing bankruptcy in the national economy of Russia.

Holdings first appeared in world practice at the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century as a result of the prohibition of the trust system in the United States with "antitrust laws". In Azerbaijan, it can be said that the holding system began to gain importance after gaining independence in the 1990s. Recently, the constantly occurring processes of creation of new companies in Azerbaijan, organizational and legal restructuring of existing companies (mergers, joints, separation of independent companies), their destruction, and bankruptcy are accompanied by directing capital to such a sphere of the economy where its more profitable use is expected. One of the effective forms of capital centralization is the creation and functioning of complex economic systems that represent a group of interconnected organizations with a certain internal structure. That is why in the economic environment of Azerbaijan, the spread of consolidation of enterprises in the form of consolidated (holding) groups in large, medium, and small businesses has expanded. There are many reasons for this: the multi-profile business of the majority of medium and small enterprises, territorial and field divisions of enterprises, and trying to appear as a consolidated taxpayer. On the one hand, operational activity related to the market (marketing policy, market strategy) and financial independence is the need of the period. On the other hand, a single center of general management is still required [1,79].

AbstractScholars argue that the New Institutional Economics (NIE) has not yet provided causal explanations on how long institutions persist or why and how they suffer dramatic changes. Others state that evidence is still inconclusive to define a theoretical justification on how changes and development occur. This article focuses on the institutions of the electricity sector in Brazil, aiming to heighten the body of empirical research in NIE and produce satisfactory explanations that motivate theory refinement. Based on a qualitative approach, we find that the drivers of the first institutional change in Brazil's electricity sector were related to market protection and domestic industrial support. For the second institutional change, economic recession (country at state of bankruptcy, debt crisis, and high inflation rates) and reliability of utility services were the driving factors. We hope this study systematizes historical facts and helps create grounds for our understanding of institutional evolution and economic growth.

The aim of this thesis is to improve our understanding of the causes of organisational crisis. As crisis genesis research is still in its infancy, the main objective is to develop a theoretical framework that is well-grounded in data of crisis-causal processes. The first part of the literature review examines the need for crisis-causal research and comes to the following conclusions: Crises are significant phenomena for organisations. During crises, a company�s survival is threatened and its central functions are deeply affected. Although interest in crisis research developed strongly over the last decade, the field is still in a pre-paradigmatic stage that requires an inductive logic of inquiry. In addition, the majority of research in this field is focused on the consequences of crises. This preponderance towards crisis consequences leaves crisis-causal research under-theorised. Hence, theory-building on the genesis of organisational crisis represents an important gap that needs to be addressed. The second part of the literature review presents the small field of extant causal research on crises as well as on crisis-related phenomena such as disasters. Insights of these studies are used to pre-specify potentially relevant constructs as well as to develop methodological implications for the subsequent theory-building task. In this thesis a case study methodology is employed. Four cases of crisis-causal processes in large U.S. public companies were examined in-depth. Firstly, a within-case analysis was conducted. Secondly, the results of each case were compared in an across-case analysis. For both analyses, four analytical strategies were employed, namely a quantification strategy, a narrative strategy, a visual mapping strategy and, most importantly, a grounded theory strategy. The results of the analysis are five well-grounded constructs that aim to explain the crisis-causal process common across cases. These constructs are the building blocks for two theoretical frameworks developed in this thesis. While the first framework presents a simple graphic depiction of these constructs, the second framework demonstrates how these constructs are linked. In general, the results suggest that a crisis is caused by a combination of company-specific factors and underlying dynamics that evolve through three distinct phases in an exponential fashion: a phase of stability (pre-crisis stage), a phase of increasing instability (crisis onset) and a phase of resolution (crisis and its aftermath). By setting up positive feedback loops that continually magnify the severity of problems generated by events, a self-reinforcing vicious cycle is established that increases the onset of crisis at an exponentional rate. The results suggest that a crisis unfolds due to a problem structure which becomes increasingly intractable. This is accompanied by an increasing number of events that the organisation needs to deal with as it approaches the crisis point. In addition, three underlying dynamics were identified as crisis-contributing factors: a process of increasing denial, a process of decreasing degrees of freedom and a process of decreasing support of key players. The thesis closes with a summary and discussion of the results. It is illustrated to what extent the theory developed in this work links to concurring and conflicting findings of the extant body of crisis knowledge.

This dissertation extends the economics literature in industrial organization with three empirical essays on the strategic decisions of firms in imperfectly competitive markets. Using data from the U.S. airline industry, I combine reduced-form analysis with recent econometric advances in the estimation of dynamic games to examine the market-level and industry-level behavior of oligopolistic firms. The first essay presents a framework for sensitivity analysis in merger simulation. The second essay continues the market-level analysis of merger effects by examining how airline mergers influence price dispersion. The third essay shifts focus to industry-level investment behavior, examining the role played by bankruptcy policy in disciplining capital investment.

Dissertation

Defense date: 25/11/2010
Examining Board: Prof. Piero Gottardi, EUI Prof. Massimo Motta, Supervisor, Universitat Pompeu Fabra Prof. Patrick Rey, University of Toulouse Prof. Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, University of Mannheim
Soft bankruptcy allows a poor performing entrepreneur to renegotiate the terms of outstanding financial contracts, but at the same time it allows lenders to increase recovery rates. Hinging on this basic trade-off, the first Chapter of this thesis shows that a soft bankruptcy law designed as pure financial renegotiation may lead to investments that are biased towards the achievement of short-term results. However, if a soft bankruptcy code would encourage the entrepreneur to undertake a process of economic reorganization, the short-termism problem would be attenuated. Alternatively, the employment of contractual clauses that provide lenders with a tough punishment in case of entrepreneur's bad performance, like management turnover, can alleviate the short-term bias. In the second Chapter, I analyze technology adoption in a standardization consortium composed by a majority of vertically-integrated firms and a pure innovator, and its implications for social welfare. Like in most certification bodies, parties negotiate over the royalties after manufacturers' technology adoption and this generates a hold-up problem. Integrated operators can employ a standard with their inputs and circumvent the hold-up problem, or buy from the specialized firm and enjoy the cost-savings produced by its technology. I show that cross-licensing may lead to the inefficient exclusion of the pure innovator and that a policy of early-licensing commitments would result in efficient adoption choices. The third Chapter analyzes the profitability of vertical integration when downstream firms deal with suppliers of complementary intermediate goods with market power. The Chapter shows that the results in this setting are different from those of the models with substitute input-goods. In particular, vertical integration is not necessarily profitable, because the integrated firm faces the problem that the complementary input producer expropriates the higher profits earned downstream by the integrated chain. Interestingly, this effect is particularly strong the more efficient the integrated firm is.

No large industrial company has ever grown as fast as Nokia did in the 1990s and few have fallen quite as rapidly: Nokia’s mobile phone business went from posting record results in 2007 to almost dragging the whole company into bankruptcy in 2012. The opening chapter sets the scene with a brief history of Nokia’s journey. Three different lines of theoretical reasoning which could explain Nokia’s decline are discussed: unavoidable Schumpeterian creative destruction, organizational evolution gone astray, and a failure of managerial volition. The CORE dimensions used in the analysis of each chapter are introduced: Cognition (what leaders saw, how they interpreted it, conclusions they drew, and decisions made); Organization (operational actions, managers’ responsibilities, and relationships in the firm); Relationships (interpersonal element of how leaders complement each other, how well they work together, and the ambitions they harbor); and Emotions (critical to the quality of strategic sense-making and collective commitment).

The problem of bankruptcy prevention is growing in importance under conditions of the decline of economic growth and quarantine restrictions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has significantly affected the domestic economy. In the second reading, the Ukrainian Parliament adopted amendments to the Code of Ukraine on the Bankruptcy Procedure, which banned moratorium on bankruptcy initiation by the creditors. Thus, there was approved “Draft Law on Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts to Regulate Certain Issues of Bankruptcy Procedures for the Period of Implementation of the Measures Aimed at Preventing the Emergence and Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic” No 4220. This moratorium was introduced in the framework of measures for business support due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Quarantine restrictions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have affected many businesses throughout the world. First of all, this is due to strict quarantine measures imposed by the governments of many countries: closure of shopping and entertainment centers, a ban on all public events, restrictions on the movement both within the country and when crossing its borders, reduction of production (due to the establishment of limits for the simultaneous stay of workers in one room), etc. Quarantine has ruined consumer sentiment and almost halted several industries including retail, hotel and restaurant business, air travel. The amount of budget revenues has decreased. As a result of quarantine, Ukrainian companies have frozen investments and production chains, and some of them are on the verge of bankruptcy. The main economic sign of bankruptcy is reduced to a single point. It is inability of the enterprise to meet the requirements of creditors. However, in order to avoid numerous bankruptcies on insignificant debts, the minimum amount of debt is determined, at which a bankruptcy case can be initiated. Macroeconomic efficiency of the institution of bankruptcy directly depends on the systemic nature of the relevant fragment of the national legislation, availability of the detailed representative economic statistics and the level of conceptual development of effective anti-crisis regulation. At the level of microeconomics, bankruptcy means not just stopping the local production process, i.e. the loss of a sustainable source of permanent income and social security. And at the level of macroeconomics there is the opposite situation; bankruptcy means rehabilitation of production from inefficient forms of its organization and inefficient management, overcoming cyclical recession and modernization of the technological base of production. A modern approach to the study of bankruptcy is associated with the definition of objective economic signs of corporate bankruptcy and specific signs of financial insolvency of the enterprise, assessment of the effectiveness of basic legal procedures for bankruptcy (supervision, external management, bankruptcy proceedings, and amicable settlement). Financial preconditions for insolvency and bankruptcy of the enterprise are analyzed in accordance with Methodical recommendations on detection of signs of insolvency of the enterprise and signs of concealment of bankruptcy, fictitious bankruptcy or bringing to bankruptcy; Methodology of in-depth analysis of the financial and economic condition of insolvent enterprises and organizations. Financial statements are the sources of information for analysis and detection of signs of bankruptcy. To predict the risk of bankruptcy, it is necessary to be guided by regulatory sources, data of accounting, statistical, operational accounting and reporting. Necessary information can also be obtained from documentary inspections, audits, orders, directives, economic and legal materials (contracts). To study the results of financial and economic activities of the object of study there can be used accounting data, which contains extensive analytical information. According to primary documents, it is possible to establish the causes of overspending, payment of fines, perpetrators, determine the legality and appropriateness of business transactions. The main sign of bankruptcy is inability of the company to comply with creditors’ claims within three months from the date of payment. After this period, creditors have the right to apply to the arbitral tribunal to declare the debtor company a bankrupt. Bankruptcy is the result of interaction of internal and external factors. Due to the limitations of the COVID-19 pandemic, 1/3 of the business destruction is associated with internal factors and 2/3 with external factors. Bankruptcy characterizes realization of catastrophic risks of the enterprise in the course of its financial activity, as a result of which it is unable to meet the requirements set by creditors and meet obligations to the budget. Among a wide range of methods used to determine the characteristics of various phenomena and processes, to identify the features of development, to study the dynamics of changes at the enterprises under conditions of the threat and development of crisis, there can be distinguished the main ones: expert (expert assessments); research and statistical; analytical; method of analogues. The whole set of methods for assessing the state of the enterprise is based on three main approaches, which include: the use of a system of indicators and informal indicators (criteria and features); setting the maximum number of indicators in different areas of the enterprise; creation of a separate system of integrated indicators. In the practice of analysis and assessment of the enterprise state the most common approach is the one that involves the use of a system of indicators and informal indicators. Integrated factor models developed using multidimensional multiplicative analysis are often used to assess the probability of bankruptcy and the level of creditworthiness of the enterprise. Bankruptcy forecasting methods based on the use of financial ratios are as follows: Two- and five-factor models for estimating the probability of bankruptcy based on Altman’s “Z-score”; Model of Roman Lis, W. Beaver; Method of rating assessment of financial condition (rating number); R – bankruptcy risk prediction; Taffler’s prediction model; Fulmer’s model; Springgate model; Generalized model developed on the basis of discriminant function; PAS-ratio. Integrated factor models of E. Altman, Lis, Taffler, Tishau and others are often used to assess the probability of bankruptcy and the level of creditworthiness of the enterprise (Table 1), developed using multidimensional multiplicative analysis.

The chapter presents the authors' estimations according to the scoring modeling techniques; also, internationally spread models of bankruptcy forecasting are systematized. Advantages and disadvantages of dynamic modelling methods as applied to financial condition assessment are presented here. Methodological problems of financial modelling are explained here in detail. Regression, logit-regression, and discriminant models are built on the basis of data on the Rosselkhozbank and Sberbank of Russia regulations, taking into account the agrarian specifics of organizations and regional specificity of the Omsk region. An attempt has been made to balance the simplicity of calculations and the accuracy of predictions. Graphs, to be used for express analysis, are constructed on the basis of two core financial indicators.