Livres sur le sujet « Annual variability »

Lifeline for about one-sixth of the world’s population in the subcontinent, the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is an integral part of the annual cycle of the winds (reversal of winds with seasons), coupled with a strong annual cycle of precipitation (wet summer and dry winter). For over a century, high socioeconomic impacts of ISM rainfall (ISMR) in the region have driven scientists to attempt to predict the year-to-year variations of ISM rainfall. A remarkably stable phenomenon, making its appearance every year without fail, the ISM climate exhibits a rather small year-to-year variation (the standard deviation of the seasonal mean being 10% of the long-term mean), but it has proven to be an extremely challenging system to predict. Even the most skillful, sophisticated models are barely useful with skill significantly below the potential limit on predictability. Understanding what drives the mean ISM climate and its variability on different timescales is, therefore, critical to advancing skills in predicting the monsoon. A conceptual ISM model helps explain what maintains not only the mean ISM but also its variability on interannual and longer timescales.The annual ISM precipitation cycle can be described as a manifestation of the seasonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) or the zonally oriented cloud (rain) band characterized by a sudden “onset.” The other important feature of ISM is the deep overturning meridional (regional Hadley circulation) that is associated with it, driven primarily by the latent heat release associated with the ISM (ITCZ) precipitation. The dynamics of the monsoon climate, therefore, is an extension of the dynamics of the ITCZ. The classical land–sea surface temperature gradient model of ISM may explain the seasonal reversal of the surface winds, but it fails to explain the onset and the deep vertical structure of the ISM circulation. While the surface temperature over land cools after the onset, reversing the north–south surface temperature gradient and making it inadequate to sustain the monsoon after onset, it is the tropospheric temperature gradient that becomes positive at the time of onset and remains strongly positive thereafter, maintaining the monsoon. The change in sign of the tropospheric temperature (TT) gradient is dynamically responsible for a symmetric instability, leading to the onset and subsequent northward progression of the ITCZ. The unified ISM model in terms of the TT gradient provides a platform to understand the drivers of ISM variability by identifying processes that affect TT in the north and the south and influence the gradient.The predictability of the seasonal mean ISM is limited by interactions of the annual cycle and higher frequency monsoon variability within the season. The monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO) has a seminal role in influencing the seasonal mean and its interannual variability. While ISM climate on long timescales (e.g., multimillennium) largely follows the solar forcing, on shorter timescales the ISM variability is governed by the internal dynamics arising from ocean–atmosphere–land interactions, regional as well as remote, together with teleconnections with other climate modes. Also important is the role of anthropogenic forcing, such as the greenhouse gases and aerosols versus the natural multidecadal variability in the context of the recent six-decade long decreasing trend of ISM rainfall.

Precipitation levels in southern Africa exhibit a marked east–west gradient and are characterized by strong seasonality and high interannual variability. Much of the mainland south of 15°S exhibits a semiarid to dry subhumid climate. More than 66 percent of rainfall in the extreme southwest of the subcontinent occurs between April and September. Rainfall in this region—termed the winter rainfall zone (WRZ)—is most commonly associated with the passage of midlatitude frontal systems embedded in the austral westerlies. In contrast, more than 66 percent of mean annual precipitation over much of the remainder of the subcontinent falls between October and March. Climates in this summer rainfall zone (SRZ) are dictated by the seasonal interplay between subtropical high-pressure systems and the migration of easterly flows associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Fluctuations in both SRZ and WRZ rainfall are linked to the variability of sea-surface temperatures in the oceans surrounding southern Africa and are modulated by the interplay of large-scale modes of climate variability, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Southern Indian Ocean Dipole, and Southern Annular Mode.Ideas about long-term rainfall variability in southern Africa have shifted over time. During the early to mid-19th century, the prevailing narrative was that the climate was progressively desiccating. By the late 19th to early 20th century, when gauged precipitation data became more readily available, debate shifted toward the identification of cyclical rainfall variation. The integration of gauge data, evidence from historical documents, and information from natural proxies such as tree rings during the late 20th and early 21st centuries, has allowed the nature of precipitation variability since ~1800 to be more fully explored.Drought episodes affecting large areas of the SRZ occurred during the first decade of the 19th century, in the early and late 1820s, late 1850s–mid-1860s, mid-late 1870s, earlymid-1880s, and mid-late 1890s. Of these episodes, the drought during the early 1860s was the most severe of the 19th century, with those of the 1820s and 1890s the most protracted. Many of these droughts correspond with more extreme ENSO warm phases.Widespread wetter conditions are less easily identified. The year 1816 appears to have been relatively wet across the Kalahari and other areas of south central Africa. Other wetter episodes were centered on the late 1830s–early 1840s, 1855, 1870, and 1890. In the WRZ, drier conditions occurred during the first decade of the 19th century, for much of the mid-late 1830s through to the mid-1840s, during the late 1850s and early 1860s, and in the early-mid-1880s and mid-late 1890s. As for the SRZ, markedly wetter years are less easily identified, although the periods around 1815, the early 1830s, mid-1840s, mid-late 1870s, and early 1890s saw enhanced rainfall. Reconstructed rainfall anomalies for the SRZ suggest that, on average, the region was significantly wetter during the 19th century than the 20th and that there appears to have been a drying trend during the 20th century that has continued into the early 21st. In the WRZ, average annual rainfall levels appear to have been relatively consistent between the 19th and 20th centuries, although rainfall variability increased during the 20th century compared to the 19th.

Weather, Macroweather, and the Climate is an insider's attempt to explain as simply as possible how to understand the atmospheric variability that occurs over an astonishing range of scales: from millimeters to the size of the planet, from milliseconds to billions of years. The variability is so large that standard ways of dealing with it are utterly inadequate: in 2015, it was found that classical approaches had underestimated the variability by the astronomical factor of a quadrillion (a million billion). Author Shaun Lovejoy asks - and answers - many fundamental questions such as: Is the atmosphere random or deterministic? What is turbulence? How big is a cloud (what is the appropriate notion of size itself)? What is its dimension? How can we conceptualize the structures within structures within structures spanning millimeters to thousands of kilometers and milliseconds to the age of the planet? What is weather? What is climate? Lovejoy shows in simple terms why the industrial epoch warming can't be natural - much simpler than trying to show that it's anthropogenic. We will discuss in simple terms how to make the best seasonal and annual forecasts - without giant numerical models. Above all, the book offers readers a new understanding of the atmosphere.

Interspecific fish reproductive patterns, outputs and life cycles display the greatest variability within the vertebrates. Early stages of oogenesis can be repeated in adult fish, contrasting with mammals; the pre-set sequence of cell divisions in gametogenesis is otherwise similar and is described in detail. Most fish deposit much yolk (vitellogenesis) in developing eggs. Migrations, beach-spawning and mouth-brooding are some of the interesting variations. Fertilization is predominantly external but is internal in some groups such as chondrichthyans. The omission of annual reproduction is well established in some freshwater species and the idea that this may also be the case for marine teleosts is gaining acceptance. This should be taken into account for intensively fished species. The possible roles of external cues, hormones, pheromones and neural factors acting as ‘switches’ and coordinators in gametogenesis and reproductive behaviour are discussed.

In 2015, annual average atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels surpassed a level of 400 parts per million (ppm) for the first time in three million years. This has caused widespread concern among climate scientists, and not least among those that work on natural climate variability in prehistoric times, before humans. These people are known as "past climate" or palaeoclimate researchers, and author Eelco J. Rohling is one of them. The Climate Question offers a background to these concerns in straightforward terms, with examples, and is motivated by Rohling's personal experience in being intensely quizzed about whether modern change is not all just part of a natural cycle, whether nature will not simply resolve the issue for us, or whether it won't be just up to some novel engineering to settle things quickly. This book discusses in straightforward terms why climate changes, how it has changed naturally before the industrial revolution made humans important, and how it has changed since then. It compares the scale and rapidity of variations in pre-industrial times with those since the industrial revolution, infers the extent of humanity's impacts, and looks at what these may lead to in the future. Rohling brings together both data and process understanding of climate change. Finally, the book evaluates what Mother Nature could do to deal with the human impact by itself, and what our options are to lend her a hand.

The atmospheric circulation in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres is usually dominated by westerly winds and by planetary-scale and shorter-scale synoptic waves, moving mostly from west to east. A remarkable and frequent exception to this “usual” behavior is atmospheric blocking. Blocking occurs when the usual zonal flow is hindered by the establishment of a large-amplitude, quasi-stationary, high-pressure meridional circulation structure which “blocks” the flow of the westerlies and the progression of the atmospheric waves and disturbances embedded in them. Such blocking structures can have lifetimes varying from a few days to several weeks in the most extreme cases. Their presence can strongly affect the weather of large portions of the mid-latitudes, leading to the establishment of anomalous meteorological conditions. These can take the form of strong precipitation episodes or persistent anticyclonic regimes, leading in turn to floods, extreme cold spells, heat waves, or short-lived droughts. Even air quality can be strongly influenced by the establishment of atmospheric blocking, with episodes of high concentrations of low-level ozone in summer and of particulate matter and other air pollutants in winter, particularly in highly populated urban areas.Atmospheric blocking has the tendency to occur more often in winter and in certain longitudinal quadrants, notably the Euro-Atlantic and the Pacific sectors of the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, blocking episodes are generally less frequent, and the longitudinal localization is less pronounced than in the Northern Hemisphere.Blocking has aroused the interest of atmospheric scientists since the middle of the last century, with the pioneering observational works of Berggren, Bolin, Rossby, and Rex, and has become the subject of innumerable observational and theoretical studies. The purpose of such studies was originally to find a commonly accepted structural and phenomenological definition of atmospheric blocking. The investigations went on to study blocking climatology in terms of the geographical distribution of its frequency of occurrence and the associated seasonal and inter-annual variability. Well into the second half of the 20th century, a large number of theoretical dynamic works on blocking formation and maintenance started appearing in the literature. Such theoretical studies explored a wide range of possible dynamic mechanisms, including large-amplitude planetary-scale wave dynamics, including Rossby wave breaking, multiple equilibria circulation regimes, large-scale forcing of anticyclones by synoptic-scale eddies, finite-amplitude non-linear instability theory, and influence of sea surface temperature anomalies, to name but a few. However, to date no unique theoretical model of atmospheric blocking has been formulated that can account for all of its observational characteristics.When numerical, global short- and medium-range weather predictions started being produced operationally, and with the establishment, in the late 1970s and early 1980s, of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, it quickly became of relevance to assess the capability of numerical models to predict blocking with the correct space-time characteristics (e.g., location, time of onset, life span, and decay). Early studies showed that models had difficulties in correctly representing blocking as well as in connection with their large systematic (mean) errors.Despite enormous improvements in the ability of numerical models to represent atmospheric dynamics, blocking remains a challenge for global weather prediction and climate simulation models. Such modeling deficiencies have negative consequences not only for our ability to represent the observed climate but also for the possibility of producing high-quality seasonal-to-decadal predictions. For such predictions, representing the correct space-time statistics of blocking occurrence is, especially for certain geographical areas, extremely important.

The aim of the study was to determine the influence of different disturbances (both natural and anthropogenic) on species composition and stand structure of old-growth mixed mountain forests in the Western Carpathians. These stands are usually dominated by beech, fir and spruce, mixed in different proportions. The tree main species represent different growth strategies, and they compete against each other. The longevity of trees makes the factors influencing the stand structure difficult to identify, even during longitudinal studies conducted on permanent research plots. That is why dendroecological techniques, based upon the annual variability of tree rings, are commonly used to analyze the disturbance histories of old-growth stands. Dendroecological methods make it possible to reconstruct the stand history over several centuries in the past by analyzing the frequency, intensity, duration and spatial scale of disturbances causing the death of trees. Combining the dendroecological techniques with the detailed measurements of stand structure, snag volume, CWD volume, and the analyses of regeneration species composition and structure allows us to identify the factors responsible for the changes in dynamics of mixed mountain forests. Various disturbance agents affect some species selectively, while some disturbances promote the establishment of tree seedlings of specific species by modifying environmental conditions. Describing the disturbance regime requires a broad scope of data on stand structure, on dead wood and tree regeneration, while various factors affecting all the stages of tree growth should be taken into consideration. On the basis of the already published data from permanent sample plots, combined with the available disturbance history analyses from the Western Carpathians, three research hypotheses were formulated. 1. The species composition of mixed mountain forests has been changing for at least several decades. These directional changes are the consequence of simultaneous conifer species decline and expansion of beech. 2. The observed changes in species composition of mixed mountain forests are the effect of indirect anthropogenic influences, significantly changing tree growth conditions also in the forests that are usually considered natural or near-natural. Cumulative impact of these indirect influences leads to the decrease of fir share in the tree layer (spruce decline has also been observed recently),and it limits the representation of this species among seedlings and saplings. The final effect is the decrease of fir and spruce share in the forest stands. 3. Small disturbances, killing single trees or small groups of trees, and infrequent disturbances of medium size and intensity dominate the disturbance regime in mixed mountain forests. The present structure of beech-fir-spruce forests is shaped both by complex disturbance regime and indirect anthropogenic influences. The data were gathered in permanent sample plots in strictly protected areas of Babia Góra, Gorce, and Tatra National Parks, situated in the Western Carpathians. All plots were located in the old-growth forest stands representing Carpathian beech forest community. The results of the measurements of trees, snags, coarse woody debris (CWD) and tree regeneration were used for detailed description of changes in the species composition and structure of tree stands. Tree ring widths derived from increment cores were used to reconstruct the historical changes in tree growth trends of all main tree species, as well as the stand disturbance history within the past two to three hundred years. The analyses revealed complex disturbance history in all of the three forest stands. Intermediate disturbances of variable intensity occurred, frequently separated by the periods of low tree mortality lasting from several decades up to over one hundred years. The intervals between the disturbances were significantly shorter than the expected length of forest developmental cycle, in commonly used theories describing the dynamics of old-growth stands. During intermediate disturbances up to several dozen percent of canopy trees were killed. There were no signs of stand-replacing disturbances, killing all or nearly all of canopy trees. The periods of intense tree mortality were followed by subsequent periods of increased sapling recruitment. Variability in disturbance intensity is one of the mechanisms promoting the coexistence of beech and conifer species in mixed forests. The recruitment of conifer saplings depended on the presence of larger gaps, resulting from intermediate disturbances, while beech was more successful in the periods of low mortality. However, in the last few decades, beech seems to benefit from the period of intense fir mortality. This change results from the influence of long-term anthropogenic disturbances, affecting natural mechanisms that maintain the coexistence of different tree species and change natural disturbance regimes. Indirect anthropogenic influence on tree growth was clearly visible in the gradual decrease of fir increments in the twentieth century, resulting from the high level of air pollution in Europe. Synchronous decreases of fir tree rings’ widths were observed in all three of the sample plots, but the final outcomes depended on the fir age. In most cases, the damage to the foliage limited the competitive abilities of fir, but it did not cause a widespread increase in tree mortality, except for the oldest firs in the BGNP (Babia Góra National Park) plot. BGNP is located in the proximity of industrial agglomeration of Upper Silesia, and it could be exposed to higher level of air pollution than the other two plots. High level of fir regeneration browsing due to the deer overabundance and insufficient number of predators is the second clear indication of the indirect anthropogenic influence on mixed mountain forests. Game impact on fir regeneration is the most pronounced in Babia Góra forests, where fir was almost completely eliminated from the saplings. Deer browsing seems to be the main factor responsible for limiting the number of fir saplings and young fir trees, while the representation of fir among seedlings is high. The experiments conducted in fenced plots located in the mixed forests in BGNP proved that fir and sycamore were the most preferred by deer species among seedlings and saplings. In GNP (Gorce National Park) and TNP (Tatra National Park), the changes in species composition of tree regeneration are similar, but single firs or even small groups of firs are present among saplings. It seems that all of the analysed mixed beech-fir-spruce forests undergo directional changes, causing a systematic decrease in fir representation, and the expansion of beech. This tendency results from the indirect anthropogenic impact, past and present. Fir regeneration decline, alongside with the high level of spruce trees’ mortality in recent years, may lead to a significant decrease in conifers representation in the near future, and to the expansion of beech forests at the cost of mixed ones.