Thèses sur le sujet « Agro-climatic »

[Truncated abstract] Malva parviflora L. (small-flowered mallow) (Malvaceae) is a common weed of pastures and wastelands and its distribution has increased rapidly throughout Australia during the last decade. Control of M. parviflora with herbicides, such as glyphosate, is often unsatisfactory and changing farming practices, such as minimum tillage, have facilitated its spread. Yet there has been little research on M. parviflora in the past and many aspects of its biology and ecology are unknown. Hence, there exists a need to examine these aspects in order to investigate and develop suitable integrated weed management strategies. Weed identification is the first and probably the most important step in the management of weeds. Here it is shown that the weedy Malva species in Western Australian farming systems is M. parviflora, and not a morphologically similar Malva species or hybrid of two species. A common garden study of 24 populations collected across the agricultural region of south-west Western Australia revealed that since its introduction over 140 years ago M. parviflora has successfully adapted to a wide range of distinct environments. The species is able to thrive in areas that vary in annual rainfall from 315 to 496 mm, maximum average temperatures from 21.9 to 26.8oC and minimum average temperatures from 9 to 13.6oC. However, there was limited broad scale ecoclinal differentiation and low genetic variation within the common garden study with only length of time between sowing and flowering differing between populations. As the species was shown to possess a predominately inbreeding system, which typically would create ecotypes/ecoclines due to limited gene flow, it was suggested that seed dispersal by sheep is likely to have increased gene flow thus suppressing population differentiation. A considerable proportion of mature hardseeded M. parviflora can survive rumen digestion and mastication by sheep. ... With origins thought to be in the Mediterranean region, it is not surprising that M. parviflora has thrived and prospered in south-west Western Australia. This thesis has determined several aspects that have enabled it to flourish in this Mediterranean-type environment and most of these attributes, including autogamous reproduction, ecoclinal/ecotypic formation, dormancy and asynchronous germination and rapid seed development, are commonly found in successful weeds world-wide.

Increasingly unpredictable, extreme and erratic rainfall with higher temperatures threatens to undermine the adaptive capacity of food systems and ecological resilience of smallholder landscapes. Despite growing concern, land managers still lack quantitative techniques to collect empirical data about the potential impact of climatic variability and change. This thesis aims to assess how ecosystem services and function and how this links with biodiversity and human wellbeing in smallholder agro-ecosystems in a changing climate. To this end, rather than relying on scenarios or probabilistic modelling, space was used as a proxy for time to compare states in disparate climatic conditions. Furthermore, an integrated methodological framework to assess ecosystem services at the field and landscape level was developed and operationalised, the results of which can be modelled with measures of wellbeing. Various multidisciplinary analytical tools were utilised, including ecological and socio-economic surveys, biological assessments, participatory open enquiry, and documenting ethnobotanical knowledge. The study was located within monsoon rice farms in the Terai Plains of Nepal, and dry season vegetable farms in Northern Ghana. Sites were selected that are climatically and culturally diverse to enable comparative analysis, with application to broad areas of adaptive planning. The linkages that bring about biophysical and human changes are complex and operate through social, political, economic and demographic drivers, making attribution extremely challenging. Nevertheless, it was demonstrated that within hotter and drier conditions in Ghana long-tongued pollinators and granivores, important for decomposition processes and pollination services, are more abundant in farms. Results further indicated that in cooler and drier conditions in Nepal, the taxonomic diversity of indigenous and close relative plant species growing in and around farms, important for the provisioning of ecosystem services, decreases. All other things equal, in both Nepal and Ghana findings indicate that overall human wellbeing may be adversely effected in hotter conditions, with a potentially significantly lower yields, fewer months of the year in which food is available, higher exposure to natural hazards and crop loss, unemployment, and psychological anxiety. Yet, surveys indicate smallholders continue to maintain a fair diversity of species in and around farms, which may allow them to secure basic necessities from provisioning ecosystem services. Moreover, farmers may employ adaptive strategies such as pooling labour and food sharing more frequently, and may have greater access to communication, technology, and infrastructure. Novel methodological and empirical contributions of this research offer predictive insights that could inform innovations in climate-smart agricultural practice and planning.

L'objectif général de cette thèse est axé sur l’amélioration de modèles agro-hydrologique spatialement distribués pour l’analyse d'agro-hydrosystèmes, sous contrainte de changements climatiques et anthropiques. Cette thèse est structurée autour de trois questions de recherche liées à : i) la représentation de la dynamique spatio-temporelle des systèmes de cultures pour leur utilisation en entrée de modèles agro-hydrologiques distribués ; ii) la représentation du niveau exploitation agricole et des décisions des agriculteurs dans les modèles agro-hydrologiques distribués ; iii) la capacité de ces modèles à simuler des changements climatiques et anthropiquesDes éléments de réponse à ces questions sont apportés par des approches de modélisation réalisées dans différents contextes et à différentes échelles d’espace et de temps. Ces différentes approches sont discutées en les comparant notamment avec d’autres travaux réalisés. Ces différentes études soulèvent la nécessité de développer des méthodologies permettant i) d’une part l’acquisition de données et leur intégration dans les modèles agro-hydrologiques distribués ii) et d’autre part l’amélioration de l’exploitation des simulations, notamment pour les transformer en informations pertinentes et accessibles pour les parties prenantes au niveau d’un territoire. Des perspectives, portant à la fois sur la prise en compte des incertitudes des simulations des modèles agro-hydrologiques et l’analyse de la robustesse de ces modèles, sont également considérées
The general objective of this thesis is to improve spatially distributed agro-hydrological models for agro-hydrosystems analysis, under climatic and anthropogenic changes, in order to contribute to the identification of levers of action to mitigate effects of non-point source agricultural pollution. This thesis is structured around three research questions related to: i) the representation of spatio-temporal dynamics of cropping systems for their use as input in distributed agro-hydrological models; ii) the representation of farm level and decisions of farmers in distributed agro-hydrological models; and iii) the ability of these models to simulate climate and anthropogenic changes.Elements of response to these questions are provided by modeling approaches carried out in different contexts and at different scales of space and time. These approaches are discussed by comparing them with other works carried out. These different studies raise the need to develop methodologies allowing (i) the acquisition of data and their integration in distributed agro-hydrological models (ii) and, the improvement of the use of simulations results, in particular to transform them into relevant and accessible information for stakeholders at territorial level. Perspectives, covering both uncertainties of the simulations of the agro-hydrological models and the analysis of the robustness of these models, are also considered

L'objectif est d'évaluer sur le plan agro-climatique les options de réalisation d'une culture de printemps dans les hautes vallées du Nord du Vietnam. A partir d'hypothèses sur les contraintes agro-climatiques s'exerçant sur ces options, un modèle de simulation et le dispositif expérimental permettant de le caler et de l'évaluer ont été élaborés. Une expérimentation virtuelle replaçant les cultures de printemps envisagées (riz, riz « aérobie », maïs et soja) dans le climat de trois régions contrastées sur ce plan a ensuite été réalisée, le long d'un gradient d'altitude, et sous différentes modalités techniques, notamment de dates de semis. Cette démarche a été appliquée successivement aux deux grands cas de figure rencontrés dans les montagnes : irrigation des parcelles dès le printemps, et conduite en régime pluvial (irrigation praticable seulement pour le cycle estival). Elle a conduit à identifier, pour chacun de ces cas de figure et chacune des régions et cultures étudiées des fenêtres de semis favorables, intervalles de dates de semis pour lesquelles la culture de printemps présente peu de risques. La taille de cette fenêtre constitue ainsi un indicateur synthétique de la contrainte climatique pour une culture donnée dans un lieu donné : plus cette fenêtre est étroite, plus on peut s'attendre à ce qu'il soit délicat pour les producteurs de pratiquer la culture. Les résultats confirment clairement que même lorsque l'eau d'irrigation est abondante, le climat des montagnes du Vietnam ne permet pas partout de pratiquer une culture de printemps. Les risques identifiés sont la destruction par le froid pendant les stades précoces de la croissance végétative, l'allongement du cycle au-delà de la date où le riz irrigué d'été doit être installé selon la pratique actuelle, l'obtention de rendements nettement abaissés du fait de la faiblesse du rayonnement global et des températures pendant la première partie de la saison. Pour ce contexte irrigué, la culture qui échappe le mieux à ces contraintes dans les simulations est le soja, suivie du maïs et du riz conduit en semis en plein champ. Le riz semé en pépinière et repiqué est apparu comme le plus sensible aux contraintes de températures.En conditions pluviales, la culture de printemps est nettement plus délicate tout particulièrement à cause des retards de levée et des stress hydriques pendant la phase de croissance végétative liés aux faibles précipitations de début de saison. Le soja reste la culture pour laquelle la contrainte de durée de cycle est la plus faible, mais son rendement simulé est fortement réduit par les stress hydriques. Le riz « aérobie » et le maïs sont des options envisageables en conditions strictement pluviales aux altitudes relativement modestes dans tous les climats étudiés. La géographie de l'extension des cultures de printemps au Vietnam est ainsi esquissée. Des perspectives de recherche sont proposées en vue d'accroître cette aire d'extension. Outre ces acquis importants pour l'agriculture locale, cette thèse confirme l'intérêt et l'efficacité d'une approche de modélisation ad hoc pour ce type de question agro-climatique
The goal of this thesis was to assess the agro-climatic feasibility of introducing a supplementary crop during the spring season in the high valleys of the mountainous northern Vietnam. From hypotheses drawn about the way climate constrained such crops, a simulation model and the experimental device required for calibrating and evaluating it were elaborated. A virtual experiment was carried out in order to submit the candidate crops (rice, “aerobic rice”, maize and soybean) under the contrasted climates of three regions, along the elevation gradient and under several technical management, especially sowing dates. This approach was applied consecutively to the two major cases occurring in these mountains: crop irrigated during the whole spring, and rainfed crop (land irrigable during summer only). This approach led to identify, for each of these two cases and for each of the studied regions and crops, favourable sowing windows, i.e. intervals of sowing dates for which the risks associated to spring crop are low. The size of such windows provides a synthetic indicator of the climatic constraint for a given crop at a given place: the narrower the window, the more difficult it is expected to be for farmers to practice the option.Results clearly confirmed that even if irrigation water is abundant, the climate of the mountains in Vietnam does not allow practicing the spring crop everywhere. The risks that were identified were crop destruction by lethally cold temperature during early vegetative stages, maturity delayed beyond the date at which the irrigated rice of summer must have been sown according to current practice, and obtaining yield neatly decreased due to low global radiation and temperature during the first half of the season. Under irrigated conditions, the simulated crop that best escaped these constraints was soybean, followed by maize and direct seeded rice. Rice sown in nurseries and transplanted showed more sensitive to temperature constraints.Spring crop showed strongly trickier under rainfed conditions, especially due to delays in seedlings emergence and water stresses during vegetative growth, in relation with low rainfall during the early part of the season. Soybean remained the crop with the shortest duration, but its simulated yield was strongly reduced by water stresses. “Aerobic rice” and maize were possible options under fully rainfed regime at relatively low elevations only, under any of the regional climates studied. Thus, the feasibility area of spring crops was thus sketched. Research perspectives were proposed, aiming at increasing this area. Additionally to these results, targeted at serving local agriculture, this work confirmed the value and effectiveness of an ad hoc modelling approach for agro-climatic studies of this kind

Biodiversity provides the raw material for evolution and adaptation of populations and species. In agricultural biodiversity, the within-population genetic diversity is of major importance. On one hand, it can provide a buffering effect against the year-to-year variation of climate or biotic pressures and on the other hand diversity serves as a resource for the population to respond to selective pressures due to specific local conditions, thus allowing for local adaptation, particularly in the case where a population is introduced into a new location. Due to its wide geographic distribution indicating a high adaptiveotential and its socio-economic importance, wheat was chosen as model crop in this study. Flowering time is a major adaptive trait which has allows wheat to grow over a wide range of ecological and climatic conditions. This PhD study was designed to gain insights about the influence of within population diversity on the short term response of populations to contrasting agro-climatic conditions by studying the genetic, epigenetic and phenotypic variation. But due to the lack of prior existence of epigenetic markers, this thesis study is divided of two parts: In the first part, European wheat populations coming from a set of seven farmer and one modern varieties, each of which was grown on seven farms (distributed across Europe) for three years, were used to study their short term response to contrasting agro-climatic conditions in Europe by analysing their phenotypic and genotypic variations. For the second part the effect of vernalization on the DNA methylation profile of theVRN-A1 gene in winter wheat was studied as a first step towards the development for the epigenetic marker in this gene.The results from the first part of the study revealed that conservation history of these farmer varieties strongly influenced the genetic diversity and fine genetic structure. Ex situ conserved farmer varieties showed low genetic diversity and simpler structure whereas in situ conserved farmer varieties and mixtures revealed higher level of genetic diversity and complex genetic structure. Genetic and phenotypic spatio-temporal differentiation depending upon the level of diversity and structural complexity of the farmer variety was observed. The traditional varieties tend to become more differentiated than the modern variety arguing in favour of use of these diverse traditional (farmer) varieties in organic and low input agriculture systems. Interestingly, a significant phenotypic differentiation for varieties with very low genetic diversity has also been observed in this study, which gives indication of a possible role of epigenetic variation in the process of evolution.From the second part of the study (effect of vernalization on the DNA methylation profile of the VRN-A1 gene), it was found that in addition to the detection of gene body methylation across the VRN-A1 gene, we identified a region within intron 1 that shows significant increase in DNA methylation in response to vernalization treatment that is positively correlated with the gene expression. Although the role of this shift in gene regulation is still unclear due to time limitations in the thesis and the small number of genotypes analysed, this study will provide a good material towards future identification of new epialleles and the development of epigenetic markers to study the epigenetic variability of these populations.This study at large provides useful knowledge on the understanding of farmers' varieties evolutionary response to be used in the development of different breeding and conservation approaches for organic agriculture, taking into consideration of the importance of within population diversity, to satisfactorily address the problems of organic agriculture.

In rural Punjab of Pakistan, women from small farm families have a huge role to play in realizing the potential that the country has in livestock sector to flourish. The study presents the current socio-economic condition of women livestock raisers, the extent and nature of their participation in livestock management activities, the impact of women's participation on their families' welfare, and the factors affecting their participation in livestock management activities. The type and size of the family, respondent's age, distant location of the village from the city, and the overall developmental status of the district had their impact on different aspects of rural women's status. At each of the three geographical levels, women respondent's participation level in livestock management activities was multiple of that of their husbands' level. Cultural norms, gendered division of labor, availability of family labor, and the physical condition of the participant were found more operative in determining the nature and level of participation of the family labor in livestock management activities. Participation of the family labor, various aspects of women's status, livestock related factors, and economic factors were the main causes identified as the factors affecting women's participation in livestock management activities. Improving women's role in livestock management and production is essential in improving overall family's health, education, income, and food security. The results signify the need for geographical targeting and the importance of using a gendered approach in the agricultural development programs.

Thesis (Ph. D. Agric. (Plant Production)) --University of Limpopo, 2019
Moringa oleifera is a multipurpose fast growing tree which is widely cultivated in tropical and subtropical regions of the world due to its numerous benefits. The benefits include medicinal use, industrial use, soil fertility, water purification, climate change mitigation as well as of nutritional value for humans and livestock. Recently, many areas globally have been rendered vulnerable to climate change as well as food insecurity. Climate change increases irregularities of rainfall and temperature patterns in semi-arid conditions. One practical way to address this challenge in the agricultural sector is to introduce more trees crop species which are found to be more tolerant than annual crops under harsh growing conditions. Moringa is one species that could be considered under variable climatic conditions for positive outcomes through climate change adaptation and mitigation as well as life sustenance against food insecurity threats. Production of moringa in South Africa is exclusively for leaf processing and consumption. To date, there is no documented information available about seed and oil yield production of moringa mainly in the Limpopo Province of South Africa. The aim of the study was to generate knowledge on moringa growth, nutritional composition, seed and oil yield production as well as its response to drought through gaseous exchange parameters, as influenced by plant density under diverse agro-ecological locations in Limpopo Province. The study was conducted in the Limpopo Province, South Africa, from November 2013 to January 2016. The study area falls within the semi-region which is characterized by low and erratic rainfall which predominately falls in summer as well as extremely low or high temperatures. A survey was conducted from November 2013 to September 2014 in five districts of the Limpopo Province. Focus group discussion, questionnaires and field observations were used for data collection. A total of 150 moringa growers formed part of the focus group and a questionnaire was administered to only thirty-one farmers, who constitute the population of farmers producing moringa within an area of 0.25 ha or more. A second study was conducted at two experimental sites in the Limpopo Province of northern part of South Africa to evaluate for the first time, the effect of plant density and cutting interval on biomass production and chemical composition of moringa grown under two diverse climatic conditions. Four different planting densities (435 000, 300 000, 200 000 and 100 000 plants/ha) were arranged in a randomized complete block design and experimental samples were replicated four times. A third study was conducted over two years to achieve additional objectives which included evaluation of gaseous exchange, biomass, seed, and oil yield. Untreated seeds of Moringa oleifera were used for establishing the trial at densities of 5 000, 2 500, 1 667 and 1 250 plants ha-1, with eight replicates. The same study was used to achieve the objective on gaseous exchange in comparison with other two naturally growing tree species of mopane (Colophospermum mopane) and marula (Sclerocarya birrea) trees growing within the moringa trial vicinity. The study was further used to evaluate the effect of planting density on biomass, grain, oil yield production and nutritional composition of Moringa oleifera trees. The last part of the study was carried out in the five districts of the Limpopo Province to determine the influence of soil physical and chemical properties on the nutritional composition of moringa leaves. The farms that were identified during the survey were also used to achieve other objectives of the study. In order to determine soil and leaf nutritional composition, soil samples were collected and analyzed for physical and chemical properties. The harvested leaves were dried at room temperature and their nutritional compositions were determined using standard methods. Findings from the studies revealed the following: The survey indicated that there are potential moringa farmers in all the districts of the province, with the intention to commercialize the tree. Majority of farmers grow moringa on 0.251.0 ha and have been producing the crop for the past 2 years. The study on planting density and cutting frequency revealed satisfactory nutritional composition in the leaves across the cutting frequencies and that, an increase in the plant density led to enhanced biomass production. The study on the monthly and seasonal gaseous exchange revealed significant differences in net photosynthetic rate, transpiration, sub-stomatal CO2 and stomatal conductance. However, planting densities of Moringa oleifera had no significant effect on all the gaseous exchange parameters measured. In a comparison of moringa with other tree species growing in the vicinity of moringa, the results differed significantly in gaseous exchange. The highest activity in photosynthetic rate (A), stomatal conductance (gs), transpiration rate (E) and sub-stomatal CO2 (Ci), as well as higher stomatal density, was found in moringa. The findings from the biomass, seed yield and oil yield study showed that the increase in measured biomass, seed and oil yield increased with increasing planting density. However, seed oil concentration was non-significant. Findings from the ecology study revealed that moringa improved soil nutritional composition; mainly in areas where the trees were more than three years old as compared to control soils where moringa had not been planted. The soil nutritional composition differed with soil textural classes with the clay soils recording higher nutrient ion values. The study revealed that moringa can be produced in many locations of the Limpopo Province without negatively affecting leaf nutritional composition. Moringa leaves contain high level of nutrients even under marginal production areas irrespective of the planting density. A population of 5000 plants ha-1 can be used for seed and oil yield production where temperatures are favourable for improved farmers’ livelihoods. The results strongly showed with no doubt, the superiority of moringa in capturing more carbon among the three species. Moringa maintained good leaf yield even under drought condition, which is an indication of its potential to act as a good sink for carbon dioxide absorption. It can, therefore, be recommended for many parts of Limpopo Province for climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies and food security. KEY CONCEPTS: agro-ecology, biomass, climate change, commercialization, drought, food security, gas exchange, leaf chemical composition, location, Moringa oleifera, oil, seed, soil textural class, survey, trees, weather, yield

The raising global demand for agricultural products and the exacerbated inter-annual fluctuations of food productions due to climate change are increasing world food price volatility and threatening food security in developing countries. In this context, the availability of reliable operational yield forecasting systems would allow policy makers to regulate agricultural markets. However, the reliability of the current approaches (the most sophisticated being based on crop models) is undermined by different sources of uncertainty. In particular, large area simulations can be affected by errors deriving from the uncertainty in input data (e.g., sowing dates, information on cultivar/hybrid grown, management practices) and upscaling assumptions, as well as from the incomplete adequacy of crop models to reproduce the effects of key factors affecting inter-annual yield fluctuations (e.g., extreme weather events, pests, diseases). The aim of this Ph.D. project was to reduce the uncertainty affecting the existing model-based forecasting systems through: (i) the implementation of approaches for the estimation of the impact of biotic and abiotic stressors on crop yields (based on dynamic models and on dedicated agro-climatic indicators), and (ii) the integration of remote sensing information within crop models. Concerning the first objective, the approaches for the simulation of transplanting shock and cold-induced spikelet sterility in rice included in Oryza2000 and WARM models, respectively, were improved, by increasing the model adherence to the underlying systems. Moreover, generic approaches for the simulation of the impacts of extreme weather events on crop yields were developed and evaluated, as well as approaches specific for sugarcane. For the second objective, remote sensing information was used to derive rice-cropped areas and sowing dates varying with time and space, as well as for the assimilation of exogenous leaf area index data using both recalibration and updating techniques (to account for factors not explicitly reproduced by the model within large-area applications). The application of the improved forecasting systems to different crops and agro-climatic contexts worldwide led to marked improvements compared to existing approaches. This was achieved through an increase in the percentage of inter-annual yield variability explained. On the one hand, the simulation of the impact of weather extremes (cold shocks, heat waves, water stress and frost) allowed to reduce the tendency of CGMS (the monitoring and forecasting system of the European Commission) to overestimate cereal yields in case of unfavorable seasons. Moreover, the integration of dynamic crop models and of agro-climatic indicators led to enhance the predicting capacity of available approaches. On the other hand, the integration of remote-sensing information within high resolution simulation chains allowed to decidedly reduce the uncertainty of the standard CGMS-WARM system when applied to the main European rice districts.

In dieser Arbeit wurden die Veränderungen der agrarklimatologischen Bedingungen im Zuge des Klimawandels für ausgesuchte Sauerkirschanbauregionen in Europa und Nordamerika untersucht. Es wird auf veränderte Risiken (Spätfrost, Hitzewellen, Wassermangel) hingewiesen, die durch nachhaltige, praxisorientierte und ökonomisch vertretbare Anpassungsmaßnahmen (Überdachung, Frostschutz, Bewässerung, Anbausystem, Wahl der Sorte und Unterlage, etc.) begrenzt werden können. Der Klimawandel kann neben Risiken aber auch Chancen für den Sauerkirschanbau eröffnen. Höhere Temperaturen und eine längere Vegetationsperiode können regional differenziert zu günstigeren Anbaubedingungen führen. Ein besonderer Schwerpunkt wurde auf die Entwicklung phänologischer Modelle gelegt, mit denen Veränderungen im Entwicklungsrhythmus der Sauerkirschgehölze analysiert werden konnten. Dafür wurden acht Modelle zur Vorhersage des Blühbeginns und Blühendes entwickelt. Weitere phänologische Stadien konnten mit dem Modell von Zavalloni et al. (2006) berechnet werden. Die Untersuchungen haben ergeben, dass sich der Blühbeginn unter geänderten Klimabedingungen verfrüht, aber nur geringe Verkürzungen der Zeiträume zwischen den phänologischen Stadien zu erwarten sind. Zu den gefürchteten Witterungsschäden im Obstbau gehört Spätfrost, der zu hohen Ertragsverlusten führen kann. Im Zuge des Klimawandels können sich die Häufigkeit und Stärke der Fröste ändern. Die Frostwahrscheinlichkeit während der untersuchten Entwicklungsphasen von Sauerkischgehölzen könnte in diesem Jahrhundert in Rheinland-Pfalz und Eau Claire abnehmen, während sich die Verhältnisse in den anderen Anbaugebieten nur geringfügig ändern. In einem zweiten Schritt wurden die Ertragsverluste durch Frost bestimmt. Hierbei hat sich ergeben, dass die Frostschäden in den untersuchten Anbauregionen wahrscheinlich geringer werden. Allerdings differieren die Ergebnisse zwischen den Berechnungen mit beobachteten und modellierten Temperaturen oft stark.
This thesis investigates the changes in agro-climatic conditions for selected growing region in Europe and North America under current and future climate conditions. The overall aim of the study was to identify possible risks (spring frosts, heat waves, water shortages), which can be limited by sustainable, practically oriented and economically viable adaptation measures (hail- and frost-protection, irrigation, cultivation system, choice of variety and rootstock). Besides risks, climate change can provide new opportunities. Higher temperature levels and extended growing season lengths could regionally differentiated improve the growing conditions. Particular focus was given to developing phenological models, used to investigate shifts in spring phenology of sour cherry trees due to climate change. Therefore, eight models to predict the beginning and end of blossom were optimized and validated. Further phenological stages were calculated with the model by Zavalloni et al. (2006). The results show an earlier onset in the beginning of sour cherry blossom under future climate conditions, while the length of the period between the phenological stages only shortens slightly. Spring frosts are feared weather hazards in orchards which can cause substantial yield losses. The changing climate conditions could influence the frequency and strength of spring frosts. In the course of this century the spring frost probability is likely to decrease in Rhineland-Palatinate and Eau Claire, while only slight changes are expected in the other growing regions. In the second step, yield losses caused by spring frost were calculated. The frost damages on sour cherries in the investigated growing regions will probably decrease. However, the yield losses calculated with observed and modeled temperatures often differ strongly.

Variability is inherent to any living system, and adaptation, or changing one's behavior in response to variability, is an important way to reduce or eliminate possible adverse consequences of change. Adaptation is particularly important to consider in the face of contemporary climate change, as individuals and communities may be able to adapt their behavior in response to weather variability and reduce or possibly eliminate predicted adverse impacts. To gain a more mechanistic understanding of which factors may lead to enhanced adaptive capacity of individuals and communities to future change, this dissertation uses a multi-disciplinary and multi-scale approach to broadly examine which social, economic, biophysical, and perceptional factors are associated with agricultural adaptation to current weather variability. The results from this dissertation generally show how adapting agricultural practices, like changing cropping patterns or increasing irrigation, can reduce the vulnerability of farmers to weather variability. Importantly, however, we show that adaptation is not simply about adopting appropriate technical solutions like sowing weather-appropriate crops or irrigating optimally, it is also about the complex set of economic, social, and perceptional factors that influence farmer decision-making and adaptive capacity. A global literature review highlights important biases and gaps in our current knowledge about climate change adaptation research in the agricultural sector. Based on these findings, we offer recommendations for future research that may result in a more process-based understanding of adaptation, including conducting multi-disciplinary studies that simultaneously consider the social, economic, biophysical, and perceptional factors that are associated with adaptation, and understanding how weather variability and change influence well-being to more accurately identify which individuals, households, or communities are best able to adapt. Using these recommendations, we design a case study that examines how farmers alter their cropping strategies in response to monsoon variability in Gujarat, India. Much of our research is focused on India given that over 50% of the nation practices smallholder agriculture and is particularly sensitive to climate variability and change. Through this work, we find that farmers altered their cropping decisions in response to a delayed monsoon onset, by increasing irrigation, switching crop type, and/or delaying crop sowing, and these strategies, particularly increasing irrigation, were adaptive considering yield and profit in the year of our study. These results highlight the importance of considering farmer behavior and decision-making in models that estimate future weather and climate impacts on agricultural production. While household-level surveys allow one to assess individual-level decision-making, they are difficult to implement over large spatial and temporal scales. Thus we develop a remote sensing algorithm that quantifies cropped area of smallholder farms over large spatial and temporal scales using readily-available MODIS imagery. Given the importance of irrigation as an adaptation strategy, we link these cropped area maps with rainfall and irrigation data at the village scale across all of India to assess the relative impact of different types of irrigation (e.g. groundwater versus canal) on winter cropped area and its sensitivity to rainfall variability. Overall, we find that deep well irrigation is both associated with the greatest amount of winter cropped area, and is also the least sensitive to monsoon and winter rainfall variability. However, the relative benefit of deep well irrigation varies across India, with the largest benefits seen in the regions that are facing the greatest levels of groundwater depletion. This work highlights the critical importance of groundwater for agriculture in India, and suggests that future work should identify ways to use groundwater more efficiently, increase the recharge rate of groundwater, or improve the performance of canal irrigation in order to maintain similar levels of production in the face of climate variability and change over the upcoming decades. While this dissertation focuses on agricultural adaptation to weather variability, the methods and implications derived from this dissertation are applicable more broadly to the study of resilience and adaptive capacity of social-ecological systems to global environmental change. In a rapidly changing global system, using a multi-disciplinary, multi-scale, and coupled systems approach similar to the one employed in this dissertation will help better understand and identify possible ways to enhance the ability of societies to adapt to global environmental change.