Tesis sobre el tema "Weather states"
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1
Levin, Noah. "The Impact of Weather Forecasts on Day-Ahead Power Prices". Scholarship @ Claremont, 2011. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/210.
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1. Introduction Power industry deregulation and electricity market restructuring, which began in Chile in the 1980s and then spread to Norway, New Zealand and the UK, were introduced in the United States with the passage of the Energy Policy Act (EPA) of 1992 (Jameson, 1997). The EPA and subsequent Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Orders led to the restructuring of vertically integrated electric utilities, the establishment of Independent System Operators (ISO) and Regional Transmission Organizations (RTO) and the development of competitive wholesale power markets. Deregulation also led to the creation of various electricity contract–based financial derivative products. In 1996, the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) created the US’s first electricity futures, the Palo Verde and California/Oregon Border contracts, which were traded for physical delivery (Warwick, 2002). While these products were eventually delisted in 2002, other exchange-traded and OTC contracts, for both physical and financial settlement, have been introduced on numerous exchanges, including the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and markets operated by ISOs and RTOs. From the start, deregulation of the electricity industry has been a contentious and controversial subject, its economic, political and social ramifications hotly debated in the US and abroad. The debate continues, and as of September 2010, fifteen states and the District of Columbia have deregulated electricity markets, seven have suspended restructuring activities and twenty-eight have no deregulatory legislation or restructuring activities to speak of (FERC, 2010).
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Darnell, Karen M. "Analysis of weather forecast impacts on United States Air Force combat operations". Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 2006. http://library.nps.navy.mil/uhtbin/hyperion/06Mar%5FDarnell.pdf.
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Thesis (M.S. in Meteorology)--Naval Postgraduate School, March 2006.Thesis Advisor(s): Tom Murphree, David Smarsh. "March 2006." Includes bibliographical references (p. 97-99). Also available online.
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Sweeny, Shannon R. "Impact of ENSO on weather conditions at continental United States military bases /". access online version, 1996. http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA319128.
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Forsee, William Joel. "Implementation of a Hybrid Weather Generator and Creating Sets of Synthetic Weather Series Consistent with Seasonal Climate Forecasts in the Southeastern United States". Scholarly Repository, 2008. http://scholarlyrepository.miami.edu/oa_theses/215.
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Stochastic weather generators create multiple series of synthetic daily weather (precipitation, maximum temperature, etc.), and ideally these series will have statistical properties similar to those of the input historical data. The synthetic output has many applications and for example, can be used in sectors such as agriculture and hydrology. This work used a ?hybrid? weather generator which consists of a parametric Markov chain for generating precipitation occurrence and a nonparametric k-nearest neighbor method for generating values of maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation. The hybrid weather generator was implemented and validated for use at 11 different locations in the Southeastern United States. A total of 36 graphic diagnostics were used to assess the model?s performance. These diagnostics revealed that the weather generator successfully created synthetic series with most statistical properties of the historical data including extreme wet and dry spell lengths and days of first and last freeze. Climate forecasts are typically provided for seasons or months. Alternatively, process models used for risk assessment often operate at daily time scales. If climate forecasts were incorporated into the daily weather input for process models, stakeholders could then use these models to assess possible impacts on their sector of interest due to anticipated changes in climate conditions. In this work, an ?ad hoc? resampling approach was developed to create sets of daily synthetic weather series consistent with seasonal climate forecasts in the Southeastern United States. In this approach, the output of the hybrid weather generator was resampled based on forecasts in two different formats: the commonly used tercile format and a probability distribution function. This resampling approach successfully created sets of synthetic series which reflected different forecast scenarios (i.e. wetter or drier conditions). Distributions of quarterly total precipitation from the resampled synthetic series were found to be shifted with respect to the corresponding historical distributions, and in some cases, the occurrence and intensity statistics of precipitation in the new weather series had changed with respect to the historical values.
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Spencer, Jeremy M. "The Geography of Hypothermia in the United States: An Analysis of Morbidity, Mortality, Thresholds, and Messaging". Kent State University / OhioLINK, 2015. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=kent1432655741.
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Coleman, Jill Susan Multon. "Atmospheric circulation types associated with cause-specific daily mortality in the central United States". Connect to resource, 2005. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=osu1123181126.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Ohio State University, 2005.Title from first page of PDF file. Document formatted into pages; contains xvi, 264 p.; also includes graphics. Includes bibliographical references (p. 257-264). Available online via OhioLINK's ETD Center
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Bloomer, Bryan Jaye. "Air pollution response to changing weather and power plant emissions in the eastern United States". College Park, Md. : University of Maryland, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1903/8852.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Maryland, College Park, 2008.Thesis research directed by: Depts. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, and Chemistry and Biochemistry. Title from t.p. of PDF. Includes bibliographical references. Published by UMI Dissertation Services, Ann Arbor, Mich. Also available in paper.
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Cantu, Ruben A. "The role of weather in Class A Naval aviation mishaps FY 90-98". Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 2001. http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA391038.
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Thesis (M.S. in Meteorology and Physical Oceanography) Naval Postgraduate School, March 2001.Thesis advisor(s): Wash, Carlyle H.; Murphree, Tom. "March 2001." Includes bibliographical references (p. 83-84). Also Available online.
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Pawar, Sohum(Sohum Parag). "Resilient decarbonization for the United States : lessons for electric systems from a decade of extreme weather". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2020. https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/127175.
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Thesis: S.M. in Technology and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, May, 2020Cataloged from the official PDF of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 159-171).
The past decade has seen an unprecedented surge of climate change-driven extreme weather events that have wrought over $800 billion in damage and taken more than 5,200 lives across the United States -- a trend that appears poised to intensify. At the same time, the need for a large-scale effort to decarbonize the U.S. electric power system has become clear, along with the growing climate risks and impacts that any such effort will face. This thesis argues that the principles of resilience can play a valuable role by enabling the decarbonization of the U.S. electric system, in the face of the escalating risks and impacts of climate-driven extreme weather. By emphasizing targeted hardening, proactive planning, graceful failure, and effective recoveries in the design, operation, and oversight of electric systems in the United States, we can both protect against growing climate risks and catalyze decarbonization efforts --
an integrated process we call resilient decarbonization. This work seeks to inform present and future resilient decarbonization efforts by examining the lessons of the past decade of extreme weather, and its impact on electric systems in the United States. To do so, we consider three cases: Hurricane Maria, which struck Puerto Rico in 2017, causing the world's second-largest blackout; the 2017-2019 Northern California wildfire seasons, which sent the nation's largest investor-owned-utility into bankruptcy and remain the most devastating on record; and Superstorm Sandy, which served as a wakeup call for the New York/New Jersey area when it made a sudden left turn towards the region in 2012. We find that resilient decarbonization, while a challenging process to set into motion, does in fact meet its dual mission of protecting electric systems against growing climate risks, while enabling their decarbonization.
We also examine the ways in which electric system institutions take climate risks into account, the strengths and weaknesses of resilience-based measures for electric systems, and overarching questions about the role of electricity and electric utilities in American society today.
by .Sohum Pawar
S.M. in Technology and Policy
S.M.inTechnologyandPolicy Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society
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Tully, Erin. "Climate and Crime: Examining the Relationship Between Extreme Weather Events and Crime Rates in the United States". Scholarship @ Claremont, 2018. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/1924.
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This study attempts to determine whether there is a relationship between extreme weather events and crime rates. Due to the increasing effects of climate change, it is critical we understand the societal effects of extreme weather. Here, a panel data fixed effects regression was used to analyze state and year level data. It was hypothesized that there would be a relationship between crime and extreme events, but the results did not show a statistically significant relationship. Further research with increased geographic and temporal controls is encouraged.
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Coleman, Jill S. M. "Atmospheric circulation types associated with cause-specific daily mortality in the central United States". The Ohio State University, 2005. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1123181126.
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Barrett, Kevin M. Greene Donald Miller. "The county bias of severe thunderstorm warnings and severe thunderstorm weather reports for the Central Texas region". Waco, Tex. : Baylor University, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/2104/5161.
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Karmosky, Christopher. "Synoptic climatology of snowfall in the northeastern United States an analysis of snowfall amounts from diverse synoptic weather types /". Access to citation, abstract and download form provided by ProQuest Information and Learning Company; downloadable PDF file, 166 p, 2008. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1459905421&sid=3&Fmt=2&clientId=8331&RQT=309&VName=PQD.
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Alkolibi, Fahad. "Regional Temperature Trends & Variations in the Contiguous United States from 1935 to 1986". TopSCHOLAR®, 1991. https://digitalcommons.wku.edu/theses/2115.
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The temperature trends and variations of the contiguous United States as a whole and ten designated regions were investigated from 1935 to 1986. To obtain reliable results, 263 stations of the Historical Climate Network (HCN) were used. The HCN stations are corrected for many non-climatic factors which may bias the data. The data for the contiguous United States reveals that the annual, summer, and winter temperatures are free of clear positive or negative trends. Unlike the annual and summer data, winter temperatures exhibit relatively strong variations.
Each region was then studyed individually. The summer temperatures for all the ten regions were free of significant trends except Region 2 (Central East Region), which exhibited a significant negative trend. The winter temperatures of the ten regions also lack a statistical significance except for Region 3 (Southeast Region) which shows a significant negative trend. The annual temperatures for the ten regions were also significant except for Regions 2 and 5 (Central East Region and Southern Plains Region). These two regions exhibited significant negative trends.
The annual temperature trends for nine of the ten regions were negative while the annual temperatures for the United States as a whole show a positive trend. None of these trends were significant except for Regions 2 and 5. To examine whether or not the differences between the trends of the contiguous United States as a whole and those of the ten regions represents a significant departure from each other, the Expansion Method was used. Applying this method on the annual, summer and winter trends indicated that these differences did not represent a significant departure from those of the contiguous United States.
By studying the annual spatial temperature variations of the ten regions it was found that in more than 80% of the years, when the region with the highest positive deviation is in the western United States, the region with the highest negative deviation is in the eastern United States and visa versa.
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Bonet, Mathias Usman. "Techno-environmental assessment of marine gas turbines for the propulsion of merchant ships". Thesis, Cranfield University, 2011. http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/7386.
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This research study seeks to evaluate the techno-economic and environmental
implications of a variety of aero-derivative marine gas turbine cycles that have
been modelled for the propulsion of different types of merchant ships. It involves
the installation and operation of gas turbine propulsion systems in different
marine environmental conditions and aims to evaluate the effect of the
aerodynamic and hydrodynamic variations expected to be encountered by
these ships when they navigate across different climates and oceans along
selected fixed trade routes.
A combination of simulation tools developed in Cranfield University at the
Department of Power and Propulsion including the validated gas turbine
modelling and simulation code called “Turbomatch” and the “APPEM”
simulation code for the analysis and Prediction of exhaust pollutants have been
used along with the ongoing development of an integrated marine gas turbine
propulsion system simulation platform known as “Poseidon”. It is the main
objective of this research to upgrade the competence level of “Poseidon” so as
to facilitate the conduct of a variety of longer and more complex oceangoing
voyage scenarios through the introduction of an ambient temperature variation
numerical module. Expanding the existing code has facilitated the prediction of
the effect of varying aerodynamic and hydrodynamic conditions that may be
encountered by gas turbine propulsion systems when such ships navigate
through unstable ocean environments along their fixed trade routes at sea.
The consequences of operating the marine gas turbines under ideal weather
conditions has been investigated and compared with a wide range of severe
operating scenarios under unstable weather and sea conditions in combination
with hull fouling has been assessed. The techno-economic and environmental
benefits of intercooling/exhaust waste heat recuperation of the ICR model have
been predicted through the evaluation of different ship propulsion performance
parameters in a variety of voyage analysis leading to the prediction of fuel
consumption quantities, emission of NOx, CO2, CO and UHCs and the estimation of the HPT blade life as well. The different gas turbine cycle
configurations of the research were found to respond differently when operated
under various environmental profiles of the ship’s trade route and the number of
units for each model required to meet the power plant capacity in each scenario
and for each ship was assessed. The study therefore adds to the understanding
of the operating costs and asset management of marine gas turbine propulsion
systems of any ocean carrier and in addition it reveals the economic potentials
of using BOG as the main fuel for firing gas turbine propulsion plants of LNG
Carriers.
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Kvalheim, Miles R. "Residental Electricity Demand: An Analysis of the Current and Future United States Electricity Grid and Its Impact on Power Consumption". Scholarship @ Claremont, 2012. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/352.
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The nature of electrical power requires specific infrastructure in order to operate adequately. Currently, the United States electricity grid contains a number of bottlenecking inefficiencies that arise from the aging infrastructure of the system. This paper examines the current state of the United States electricity grid, how potential changes in weather variables can affect the electricity consumption of residential consumers, and how implementation of Smart Grid technology can potentially mitigate these issues. It is determined through regression analysis that each weather variable that was tested proves significant for at least one of the consumers compared. This indicates that there is an enormous magnitude of individual variables that factor into residential electricity consumption and that more efficient and integrated electricity practices are necessary to optimize efficiency.
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Malin, Melissa L. "Teleconnection pattern impacts on intra-seasonal climate variability in United States winters". Access to citation, abstract and download form provided by ProQuest Information and Learning Company; downloadable PDF file, 244 p, 2009. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1891555391&sid=3&Fmt=2&clientId=8331&RQT=309&VName=PQD.
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Cordeira, Jason M., Nicholas D. Metz, Macy E. Howarth y Thomas J. Galarneau. "Multiscale Upstream and In Situ Precursors to the Elevated Mixed Layer and High-Impact Weather over the Midwest United States". AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/625064.
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Two severe MCSs over the upper Midwest United States resulted in >100mm of rain in a similar to 24-h period and. 200 severe weather reports, respectively, during 30 June-2 July 2011. This period also featured 100 (104) daily maximum high (low) temperature records across the same region. These high-impact weather events occurred in the presence of an elevated mixed layer (EML) that influenced the development of the severe MCSs and the numerous record high temperatures. The antecedent large-scale flow evolution was influenced by early season Tropical Cyclone Meari over the western North Pacific. The recurvature and subsequent interaction of Meari with the extratropical large-scale flow occurred in conjunction with Rossby wave train amplification over the North Pacific and dispersion across North America during 22 June-2 July 2011. The Rossby wave train dispersion contributed to trough (ridge) development over western (central) North America and the development of an EML and the two MCSs over the upper Midwest United States. A composite analysis of 99 warm-season days with an EML at Minneapolis, Minnesota, suggests that Rossby wave train amplification and dispersion across the North Pacific may frequently occur in the 7 days leading up to EMLs across the upper Midwest. The composite analysis also demonstrates an increased frequency of severe weather and elevated temperatures relative to climatology on days with an EML. These results suggest that EMLs over the upper Midwest may often be preceded by Rossby wave train amplification over the North Pacific and be followed by a period of severe weather and elevated temperatures.
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Duke, Christopher Clayborne. "A Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Winter Weather Events in the Southeast United States with Correlations to ENSO and Other Teleconnections". MSSTATE, 2004. http://sun.library.msstate.edu/ETD-db/theses/available/etd-10132004-150641/.
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Snow/ice events are indeed a rare occurrence in the southeast United States. As a result, residents of the Southeast often exemplify a passive attitude towards winter weather and are often unprepared when it strikes. This study analyzed every recorded winter weather event that struck the Southeast (Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia) from the winter season of 1961-'62 through 2000-'01 from both a spatial and temporal standpoint. Through the results of this study, it was evident that Georgia saw the most overall winter weather events and January seemed to be the most productive month overall. This study also analyzed teleconnection (ENSO, PNA, NAO, AO) indices per study period season in order to deduce correlations with active/inactive Southeast winters. Through statistical analyses, correlations were deemed insignificant.
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Grandau, Frank J. "Evaluation of the Naval Research Laboratory Limited Area Dynamical Weather Prediction Model: topographic and coastal influences along the west coast of the United States". Thesis, Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1992. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/23663.
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Approved for public release; distribution is unlimitedThis paper describes the evaluation of the NRL Limited Area Dynamical Weather Prediction Model in simulating coastal atmospheric mesoscale phenomena along the west coast of the United States during the period 0000 UTC 02 May - 1200 UTC 03 May 1990. A graphical comparison technique was used. Model output was compared horizontally with large-scale analyses, station data, cross-section analyses, and vertical profiles at specific locations. The model successfully simulated the wind and temperature fields, but failed to accurately replicate moisture and height fields.
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Lisko, Scott C. "Analysis and forecasts of 300 hPa divergence associated with severe convection using ETA-212 and MM5 model data". Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 2005. http://library.nps.navy.mil/uhtbin/hyperion/05Mar%5FLisko.pdf.
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Yi, Han. "Assimilation of satellite-derived precipitation into the regional atmospheric model system (RAMS) and its impacts on the weather and hydrology in the southwest United States". Diss., The University of Arizona, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/280227.
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This dissertation examines the improvement in predicting weather and hydrology in the southwestern United States by assimilating satellite-derived precipitation estimates into a numerical mesoscale model. For this investigation the Regional Atmospheric Model System (RAMS) was used and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) were assimilated into the RAMS' own land surface scheme; Land Ecosystem Atmosphere Feedback model version 2 (LEAF-2). The simulations were conducted for periods of 36 hours--12 hours of initialization and 24 hours of prediction (from July 8th 0000 UTC to 9th 1200 UTC 1999). The control run underpredicted precipitation over southwestern Arizona and showed an excessive precipitation pattern over northeastern Arizona. This precipitation bias was also responsible for biases in surface fluxes such as soil moisture and evapotranspiration. With a realistic surface shortwave radiation adjustment and the improvement of atmospheric state variables within the central model domains during the assimilation period, there was a slight enhancement for near surface temperature and moisture. However, RAMS still performed poorly and improved only marginally for precipitation prediction. The impact of the assimilation of PERSIANN precipitation estimates on soil moisture was significant however, and this accordingly improved the 2m-high temperature and relative humidity. The general pattern of precipitation showed improvement but was still inaccurate the location and intensity of precipitation. To investigate the soil moisture-precipitation feedback mechanism, RAMS simulations were performed with varying initial soil moisture saturation rates starting from a completely dry condition of 0% to a fully saturated condition of 100%. Analysis showed that with less than 20% of initial soil moisture saturation, more than 70% of the water that precipitated into the analysis domain was due to the indirect effect of soil moisture. This explains in part why initial soil moisture improvements for the southwestern United States during the summer had a limited impact on the prediction of precipitation. Finally, model simulations were performed and analyzed to demonstrate the sensitivity of vegetation parameters in RAMS on land surface and near-surface atmospheric variables in the southwestern United States.
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Luong, Thang M., Christopher L. Castro, Hsin-I. Chang, Timothy Lahmers, David K. Adams y Carlos A. Ochoa-Moya. "The More Extreme Nature of North American Monsoon Precipitation in the Southwestern United States as Revealed by a Historical Climatology of Simulated Severe Weather Events". AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/626082.
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Long-term changes in North American monsoon (NAM) precipitation intensity in the southwestern United States are evaluated through the use of convective-permitting model simulations of objectively identified severe weather events during "historical past" (1950-70) and "present day" (1991-2010) periods. Severe weather events are the days on which the highest atmospheric instability and moisture occur within a long-term regional climate simulation. Simulations of severe weather event days are performed with convective-permitting (2.5 km) grid spacing, and these simulations are compared with available observed precipitation data to evaluate the model performance and to verify any statistically significant model-simulated trends in precipitation. Statistical evaluation of precipitation extremes is performed using a peaks-over-threshold approach with a generalized Pareto distribution. A statistically significant long-term increase in atmospheric moisture and instability is associated with an increase in extreme monsoon precipitation in observations and simulations of severe weather events, corresponding to similar behavior in station-based precipitation observations in the Southwest. Precipitation is becoming more intense within the context of the diurnal cycle of convection. The largest modeled increases in extreme-event precipitation occur in central and southwestern Arizona, where mesoscale convective systems account for a majority of monsoon precipitation and where relatively large modeled increases in precipitable water occur. Therefore, it is concluded that a more favorable thermodynamic environment in the southwestern United States is facilitating stronger organized monsoon convection during at least the last 20 years.
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Mehrotra, Rajeshwar Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty of Engineering UNSW. "Multisite rainfall stochastic downscaling for climate change impact assessment". Awarded by:University of New South Wales. Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2005. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/23327.
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This thesis presents the development and application of a downscaling framework for multi site simulation of daily rainfall. The rainfall simulation is achieved in two stages. First, rainfall occurrences at multiple sites are downscaled, which is followed by the generation of daily rainfall amounts at each site identified as wet. A continuous weather state based nonparametric downscaling model conditional on atmospheric predictors and a previous day average rainfall state is developed for simulation of multi site rainfall occurrences. A nonparametric kernel density approach is used for simulation of rainfall amounts at individual sites conditional on atmospheric variables and the previous day rainfall amount. The proposed model maintains spatial correlation of rainfall occurrences by simulating concurrently at all stations and of amounts by using random innovations that are spatially correlated yet serially independent. Temporal dependence is reproduced in the occurrence series by conditioning on previous day average wetness fraction and assuming the weather states to be Markovian, and in the amount series by conditioning on the previous day rainfall amount. The seasonal transition is maintained by simulating rainfall on a day-to-day basis using a moving window formulation. The developed downscaling framework is calibrated using the relevant atmospheric variables and rainfall records of 30 stations around Sydney, Australia. Results indicate a better representation of the spatio-temporal structure of the observed rainfall as compared to existing alternatives. Subsequently, the framework is applied to predict plausible changes in rainfall in warmer conditions using the same set of atmospheric variables for future climate obtained as a General Circulation Model simulation. While the case studies presented are restricted to a specific region, the downscaling model is designed to be useful in any generic catchment modelling and management activity and/or for investigating possible changes that might be experienced by hydrological, agricultural and ecological systems in future climates.
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Smith, Erik T. "The Characteristics of Cold Air Outbreaks in the eastern United States and the influence of Atmospheric Circulation Patterns". Kent State University / OhioLINK, 2017. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=kent1499870942487366.
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Herron, Joshua P. "Mesospheric Temperature Climatology Above Utah State University". DigitalCommons@USU, 2004. https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/6877.
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A Rayleigh-scatter lidar has been in operation at Utah State University (41. 7° N, 111.8 ° W) starting in September 1993 until the present (October 2003). The return profiles from the atmosphere have been analyzed to provide temperature measurements of the middle atmosphere from 45 to 90 km. Various methods of averaging were used to construct a temperature climatology of the region based on these observations. The data analysis algorithm has been critically analyzed to find possible sources of error, and has been compared to an independently derived technique. The resulting temperatures have been compared to other mid-latitude lidars with good agreement. Comparisons were made with temperatures from other ground-based instruments at Bear Lake Observatory. Additional comparisons were carried out with two satellite-based instruments, WINDII and SABER The comparison of individual nights with the SABER instrument produced surprisingly good agreement considering the difference in the two methods. With the basic analysis of the temperature climatology completed in this work, an outline is given for future research and upgrades to the facility.
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Ingole, Vijendra. "Too Hot! : an Epidemiological Investigation of Weather-Related Mortality in Rural India". Doctoral thesis, Umeå universitet, Epidemiologi och global hälsa, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-124811.
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Background Most environmental epidemiological studies are conducted in high income settings. The association between ambient temperature and mortality has been studied worldwide, especially in developed countries. However, more research on the topic is necessary, particularly in India, given the limited evidence on the relationship between temperature and health in this country. The average global temperature is increasing, and it is estimated that it will go up further. The factors affecting vulnerability to heat-related mortality are not well studied. Therefore, identifying high-risk population subgroups is of particular importance given the rising temperature in India. Objectives This research aimed to investigate the association of daily mean temperature and rainfall with daily deaths (Paper I), examine the relationship of hot and cold days with total and cause-specific mortality (Paper II), assess the effects of heat and cold on daily mortality among different socio-demographic groups (Paper III) and estimate the effect of maximum temperature on years of life lost (Paper IV). Methods The Vadu Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) monitors daily deaths, births, in-out migration and other demographic trends in 22 villages from two administrative blocks in the rural Pune district of Maharashtra state, in western India. Daily deaths from Vadu HDSS and daily weather data (temperature and rainfall) from the Indian Meteorological Department were collected from 2003 through 2013. Verbal autopsy data were used to define causes of death and classified into four groups: non-infectious diseases, infectious diseases, external causes and unspecified causes of death. Socio-demographic groups were based on education, occupation, house type and land ownership. In all papers, time series regression models were applied as the basic approach; additionally, in Paper III, a case-crossover design and, in Paper IV, a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) were used. Results There was a significant association between daily temperature and mortality. Younger age groups (0-4 years) reported higher risk of mortality due to high and low temperature and heavy rainfall. In the working age group (20-59 years), mortality was significantly associated only with high temperature. Mortality due to non-infectious diseases was higher on hot days (>39°C), while mortality from infectious diseases and from external causes were not associated with hot or cold days. A higher heat-related total mortality was observed among men than in women. Mortality among residents with low education and those whose occupation was farming was associated with high temperature. We found a significant impact of high temperature on years of life lost, which confirms our results from the previous research (Papers I-III). Conclusion The study findings broadened our knowledge of the health impacts of environmental exposure by providing evidence on the risks related to ambient temperature in a rural population in India. More specifically, the study identified vulnerable population groups (working age groups, those of low education and farmers) in relation to high temperature. The adverse effect of heat on population is preventable if local human and technical capacities for risk communication and promoting adaptive behavior are built. Furthermore, it is necessary to increase residents’ awareness and prevention measures to tackle this public health challenge in rural populations.
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Soares, Lucas Pereira. "Cearà state climate characterization based on agents of regional circulation producers of types of weather". Universidade Federal do CearÃ, 2015. http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=16988.
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CoordenaÃÃo de AperfeiÃoamento de Pessoal de NÃvel SuperiorIt was done in this study, a climatic characterization of the state of CearÃ, from the dynamics of atmospheric systems. Initially developed theoretical background on the evolution of climate studies from those achieved by traditional peoples, passing by the first climate formulations in Geography from Humboldt, Hann, Koppen, De Martonne, Strahler, Sorre and Pedelaborde, reaching Carlos Augusto Figueiredo Monteiro, responsible for this development tools applied to geographic foundations of understanding of climate. So the work is theoretical and methodological foundation Monteiro (1973), fundamental to the development of a climate characterization with emphasis on regional atmospheric circulation. Based on Monteiro (1973), the work follows a regional spatial scale, since the atmospheric dynamics can only be understood from this definition, and timescale delimited from the standard years. Further details was carried out in climatic element precipitation, identifying those weather systems responsible for the rainy and dry season. Thus develops a study of the genesis of rainfall for the state of CearÃ, based on regional dynamics. The procedures adopted were conducted based on the natural succession rhythm of the types of time, designed from standard years and the application of rhythmic analysis, responsible for providing subsidies to the preparation of the participation rates of atmospheric systems that spatialized were used as a basis the attempted synthesis of regional atmospheric circulation for the state of CearÃ.
Foi realizado no presente trabalho, uma caracterizaÃÃo climÃtica para o estado do CearÃ, a partir da dinÃmica dos sistemas atmosfÃricos. Inicialmente, desenvolveu-se fundamentaÃÃo teÃrica sobre a evoluÃÃo dos estudos climÃticos desde aqueles realizados pelos povos tradicionais, passando pelas primeiras formulaÃÃes climÃticas na Geografia a partir de Humboldt, Hann, KÃppen, De Martonne, Strahler, Sorre e PÃdelaborde, chegando a Carlos Augusto de Figueiredo Monteiro, este responsÃvel pelo desenvolvimento de ferramentas aplicadas aos fundamentos geogrÃficos de compreensÃo do Clima. Assim o trabalho tem como fundamento teÃrico-metodolÃgico Monteiro (1973), fundamental ao desenvolvimento de uma caracterizaÃÃo climÃtica com Ãnfase na circulaÃÃo atmosfÃrica regional. Com base em Monteiro (1973), o trabalho segue uma escala espacial regional, visto que a dinÃmica atmosfÃrica sà pode ser compreendida a partir de tal delimitaÃÃo, e escala temporal delimitada a partir dos anos padrÃo. Um detalhamento maior foi realizado no elemento climÃtico precipitaÃÃo, identificando aqueles sistemas atmosfÃricos responsÃveis pelo perÃodo chuvoso e seco. Assim, desenvolve-se um estudo sobre a gÃnese das chuvas para o estado do CearÃ, com base na dinÃmica regional. Os procedimentos adotados foram conduzidos com base no ritmo sucessÃo natural dos tipos de tempo, concebidos a partir dos anos padrÃo e da aplicaÃÃo da anÃlise rÃtmica, responsÃvel por fornecer os subsÃdios à elaboraÃÃo dos Ãndices de participaÃÃo de sistemas atmosfÃricos, que espacializados foram utilizados como base à tentativa de sÃntese da circulaÃÃo atmosfÃrica regional para o estado do CearÃ.
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Likitkumchorn, Nutthavit. "Ice Prevention and Weather Monitoring on Cable-Stayed Bridges". University of Toledo / OhioLINK, 2014. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=toledo1404393052.
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Wallnerström, Carl Johan. "On Incentives affecting Risk and Asset Management of Power Distribution". Doctoral thesis, KTH, Elektroteknisk teori och konstruktion, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-37310.
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The introduction of performance based tariff regulations along with higher media and political pressure have increased the need for well-performed risk and asset management applied to electric power distribution systems (DS), which is an infrastructure considered as a natural monopoly. Compared to other technical systems, DS have special characteristics which are important to consider. The Swedish regulation of DS tariffs between 1996 and 2012 is described together with complementary laws such as customer compensation for long outages. The regulator’s rule is to provide incentives for cost efficient operation with acceptable reliability and reasonable tariff levels. Another difficult task for the regulator is to settle the complexity, i.e. the balance between considering many details and the manageability. Two performed studies of the former regulatory model, included in this thesis, were part of the criticism that led to its fall. Furthermore, based on results from a project included here, initiated by the regulator to review a model to judge effectible costs, the regulator changed some initial plans concerning the upcoming regulation. A classification of the risk management divided into separate categories is proposed partly based on a study investigating investment planning and risk management at a distribution system operator (DSO). A vulnerability analysis method using quantitative reliability analyses is introduced aimed to indicate how available resources could be better utilized and to evaluate whether additional security should be deployed for certain forecasted events. To evaluate the method, an application study has been performed based on hourly weather measurements and detailed failure reports over eight years for two DS. Months, weekdays and hours have been compared and the vulnerability of several weather phenomena has been evaluated. Of the weather phenomena studied, heavy snowfall and strong winds significantly affect the reliability, while frost, rain and snow depth have low or no impact. The main conclusion is that there is a need to implement new, more advanced, analysis methods. The thesis also provides a statistical validation method and introduces a new category of reliability indices, RT.Distribution av elektricitet är att betrakta som ett naturligt monopol och är med stor sannolikhet det moderna samhällets viktigaste infrastruktur – och dess betydelse förutspås öka ytterligare i takt med implementering av teknik ämnad att minska mänsklighetens klimatpåverkan. I Sverige finns det fler än 150 elnätsbolag, vilka är av varierande storleksordning och med helt olika ägarstrukturer. Tidigare var handel med elektricitet integrerat i elnätsbolagens verksamhet, men 1996 avreglerades denna; infrastruktur för överföring separerades från produktion och handel. Införandet av kvalitetsreglering av elnätstariffer under början av 2000-talet och hårdare lagar om bland annat kundavbrottsersättning samt politiskt- och medialt tryck har givit incitament till kostnadseffektivitet med bibehållen god leveranskvalitet. En viktig aspekt är att eldistribution har, jämfört med andra infrastrukturer, flera speciella egenskaper som måste beaktas, vilket beskrives i avhandlingens första del tillsammans med introduktion av risk- och tillförlitlighetsteori samt ekonomisk teori. Två studier som kan ha bidragit till den förra regleringens fall och en studie vars resultat ändrat reglermyndighetens initiala idé avseende modell för att beräkna påverkbara kostnader i kommande förhandsreglering från 2012 är inkluderade. Av staten utsedd myndighet övervakar att kunder erbjudes elnätsanslutning och att tjänsten uppfyller kvalitetskrav samt att tariffnivåerna är skäliga och icke diskriminerande. Traditionellt har elnätsföretag mer eller mindre haft tillåtelse till intäkter motsvarande samtliga omkostnader och skälig vinst, så kallad självkostnadsprissättning. Under slutet av 1990-talet började ansvarig myndighet emellertid arbeta mot en reglering av intäktsram som även beaktar kostnadseffektivitet och kundkvalitet. Vid utformande av en sådan reglering måste svåra avvägningar göras. Exempelvis bör elnätsföretags objektiva förutsättningar, såsom terräng och kunder, tas i beaktning samtidigt som modellen bör vara lätthanterlig och konsekvent. Myndigheten ansåg ingen existerande reglermodell vara lämplig att anpassa till svenska förhållanden, så en ny modell utvecklades: Nätnyttomodellen (NNM). För 2003 års tariffer användes denna och beslut om krav på återbetalning till berörda elnätskunder togs, vilka överklagades. En utdragen juridisk process inleddes, där modellen kritiserades hårt av branschen på flera punkter. Två, i avhandlingen inkluderade studier, underbyggde kritisk argumentation mot NNM. Beslut i första instans (Länsrätt) hade inte tagits 2008 då parterna kom överens avseende år 2003-2007. Ett EU-direktiv tvingar Sverige att gå över till förhandsreglering, och i stället för att modifiera NNM och fortsätta strida juridiskt för den, togs beslut att ta fram en helt ny modell. Nätföretagens tillåtna intäktsram kommer förenklat grunda sig på elnätsföretagens kapitalkostnader och löpande kostnader. Därtill, utifrån hur effektivt och med vilken kvalitet nätföretagen bedrivit sin verksamhet, kan tillåten intäktsram justeras. En systematisk beskrivning av ett elnätsföretags nuvarande riskhantering och investeringsstrategier för olika spänningsnivåer tillhandahålles med syfte att stödja elnätsföretag i utvecklandet av riskhantering och att ge akademiskt referensmaterial baserat på branscherfarenhet. En klassificering av riskhantering uppdelat i olika kategorier och en sårbarhetsanalysmetod samt en ny tillförlitlighetsindexkategori (RT) föreslås i avhandlingen, delvis baserat på genomförd studie. Sårbarhetsanalysens övergripande idé är att identifiera och utvärdera möjliga systemtillstånd med hjälp av kvantitativa tillförlitlighetsanalyser. Målet är att detta skall vara ett verktyg för att nyttja tillgängliga resurser effektivare, t.ex. förebyggande underhåll och semesterplanering samt för att bedöma om förebyggande åtgärder baserat på väderprognoser vore lämpligt. RT är en flexibel kategori av mått på sannolikhet för kundavbrott ≥T timmar, vilket exempelvis är användbart för analys av kundavbrottsersättningslagars påverkan; sådana har exempelvis införts i Sverige och UK under 2000-talet. En statistisk valideringsmetod av tillförlitlighetsindex har tagits fram för att uppskatta statistisk osäkerhet som funktion av antal mätdata ett tillförlitlighetsindexvärde är baseras på. För att utvärdera introducerad sårbarhetsanalysmetod har en studie utförts baserat på timvisa väderdata och detaljerad avbrottsstatistik avseende åtta år för två olika eldistributionsnät i Sverige. Månader, veckodagar och timmar har jämförts vars resultat exempelvis kan användas för fördelning av resurser mer effektivt över tid. Sårbarhet med avseende på olika väderfenomen har utvärderats. Av de studerade väderfenomen är det blott ymnigt snöfall och hårda vindar, särskilt i kombination, som signifikant påverkar eldistributionssystems tillförlitlighet. Andra studier har visat på sårbarhet även för blixtnedslag (som ej fanns med som parameter i avhandlingen inkluderad studie). Temperatur (t.ex. inverkan av frost), regn och snödjup har således försumbar påverkan. Korrelationsstudier har utförts vilket bland annat visar på ett nästan linjärt samband i Sverige mellan temperatur och elförbrukning, vilket indirekt indikerar att även elförbrukning har försumbar påverkan på leveranskvalitet. Slutligen föreslås ett analysramverk som introducerad sårbarhetsanalys skulle vara en del av. Övergripande idé presenteras, vilket främst skall inspirera för fortsatt arbete; emellertid bör påpekas att introducerad sårbarhetsanalysmetod är en självständig och färdig metod oavsett om föreslagna idéer genomföres eller ej.
QC 20110815
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Shaw, Victoria Leigh. ""A PBS mind in an MTV world" teaching teenagers meteorology by placing a weather forecast on MTV and the creation of the concert forecast /". Master's thesis, Mississippi State : Mississippi State University, 2009. http://library.msstate.edu/etd/show.asp?etd=etd-04032009-113347.
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Martin, Elandriel Jean. "The X-33 and the X-38 experimental aircraft: environmental connections with aerospace science". CSUSB ScholarWorks, 2001. https://scholarworks.lib.csusb.edu/etd-project/2030.
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The purpose of this project fosters in students a sense of place and connection with their home area. It also provides students a real-world basis upon which to study the concepts of weather and geography.
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Brown, Nicholas Andrew. "An (R,S)-Inventory Policy for Winter Maintenance Materials for the State of Ohio". Wright State University / OhioLINK, 2006. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=wright1165962209.
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Greku, Evgjenia y Zhuohan Xie. "The Relationship of Weather with Electricity Prices: A Case Study of Albania". Thesis, Internationella Handelshögskolan, Jönköping University, IHH, Nationalekonomi, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-49050.
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Electricity markets may become more sensitive to weather conditions because of higher penetration of renewable energy sources and climatic changes. Albania is 100% reliant on hydropower for its domestic energy generation, making this country compelling to investigate as it is highly sensitive to changing weather conditions. We use an ARMA-GARCH model to investigate whether weather and economic factors had a relationship with monthly hydroelectricity prices in the Albanian Energy Market in the period 2013-2018. We find that electricity price is affected by variations in weather and is not utterly robust to extreme hydrological changes. Generally, our dependent variable appears to be particularly influenced by air pressure followed by temperature and rainfall. We also perceive that there is a relationship between economic factors and hydroelectricity prices, where residual supply appears to have a significant negative relationship with our dependent variable. However, we were originally anticipating a higher dependency of electricity prices on weather conditions, due to the inflated hydro-power reliance for electricity production in the Albanian Energy Market. This effect is offset by several factors, where the state monopolized behaviour of the energy sector occupies a predominant influence on our results.
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Zhang, Xu. "DEFORMATION AND SHEAR BEHAVIORS OF WEATHERED COMPACTED SHALE". UKnowledge, 2014. http://uknowledge.uky.edu/ce_etds/23.
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As an abundant sedimentary rock, shale is widely used as construction material around the world. However, shale is a fissile and laminated material and is therefore subject to deterioration due to environmental and chemical forces (i.e., weathering), which is possible to cause high maintenance cost on associated structures and failures of earth slopes and embankments. However, currently, there is lack of efficient method to monitor the weathering process of shale. This thesis uses several shale samples collected from the commonwealth of Kentucky to study the deformation and shear behaviors of weathered compacted shale. A new electrical approach was developed to access the deformation behavior of shale. The long term deformation behaviors, such as collapse and swell can be predicted from specific electrical parameters. The critical state theory was used to describe the shear behavior of weathered compacted shale. Some findings observed by previous researchers were confirmed, and new empirical equations were provided to estimate the shear strength parameters of weathered compacted shale.
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Ruckstuhl, Yvonne [Verfasser] y Tijana [Akademischer Betreuer] Janjic. "Joint state and parameter estimation to address model error in convective scale numerical weather prediction systems / Yvonne Ruckstuhl ; Betreuer: Tijana Janjic". München : Universitätsbibliothek der Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, 2019. http://d-nb.info/1191691586/34.
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Yalim, Mehmet S. "An artificial compressibility analogy approach for compressible ideal MHD: application to space weather simulation". Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/210427.
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Ideal magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations are known to have problems in satisfying the solenoidal constraint (i.e. the divergence of magnetic field should be equal to zero, $ablacdotvec{B} = 0$). The simulations become unstable unless specific measures have been taken.
In this thesis, a solenoidal constraint satisfying technique that allows discrete satisfaction of the solenoidal constraint up to the machine accuracy is presented and validated with a variety of test cases. Due to its inspiration from Chorin's artificial compressibility method developed for incompressible CFD applications, the technique was named as \
Doctorat en Sciences de l'ingénieur
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
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Boon, Dirk Francois. "The link between daily rainfall and satellite radar backscatter data from the ERS-2 scatterometer in the Free State Province, South Africa". Diss., Pretoria : [s.n.], 2007. http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-10272008-132211.
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BECKER, Carmem Terezinha. "Índices climáticos para o estado da Paraíba: determinação e evolução temporal com abordagem na análise espectral". Universidade Federal de Campina Grande, 2017. http://dspace.sti.ufcg.edu.br:8080/jspui/handle/riufcg/1449.
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Capes
Ao apresentar extensa área inclusa na delimitação semiárida do Brasil, mais de 86% do seu território, a Paraíba é um dos estados brasileiros onde a aridez apresenta maior severidade. A disponibilidade de água impera como um processo decisivo no que diz respeito ao seu efetivo desenvolvimento ambiental, social e econômico, o qual é intimamente dependente das condições climáticas reinantes. Neste contexto, emerge a necessidade da quantificação de índices que tenham como propósito, a caracterização climática de um determinado local, para com isto, haver uma melhor adequação às classes de clima predominantes. Assim, o presente estudo tem por objetivo, tecer cenários passados da variabilidade espacial e temporal de índices climáticos. Para tanto, são calculados índices climáticos a partir de dados normais climatológicos e seriais anuais para um período de cinquenta anos a vinte postos pluviométricos criteriosamente selecionados e distribuídos ao longo do estado da Paraíba. Leva-se em consideração a metodologia proposta por Thornthwaite (1948) e pelo índice de aridez aplicado pelo United Nations Environment Programme - UNEP (1992). Toma-se como subsídio, a aplicação conceitual de métodos espectrais com a subsequente aplicação da análise de ondaletas aos índices climáticos seriais. Resulta-se, que mesmo metodologias distintas venham a produzir classificações climáticas diferentes para um mesmo local e período de tempo, o desenvolvimento das variabilidades interanual e interdecenal são extremamente semelhantes, recomendando os mesmos agentes como causadores destas variabilidades. Mesmo assim, o índice de aridez do UNEP mostra-se menos criterioso para classificações climáticas do que na utilização dos índices de Thornthwaite, evidenciando quadros de menor aridez. Pela metodologia das ondaletas, a variabilidade interdecenal é significativamente mais aparente do que a interanual, com a marcante predominância na escala de 11 anos, interagindo com escalas menores, de 5, 3,5 e 2,5 anos, os quais tendem a seguir os principais comportamentos da variabilidade térmica nas bacias dos oceanos Atlântico e Pacífico. Correlações simples indicam conexões mais significativas entre modos do Pacífico e as regiões do Sertão e Alto Sertão, decrescendo em direção ao Litoral. Por outro lado, anomalias das águas no oceano Atlântico apresentam influência quase homogênea em grande parte do Estado da Paraíba, com maior sinal na faixa leste adjacente. Observa-se ainda, que classificações climáticas de forma seriada, com o processamento dos percentuais de cada tipo de clima e distribuição temporal, representa um método mais realista de análise do clima, haja vista que a partir de normais climatológicas, descreve-se uma condição média do clima local ou regional.
Due to the large area included in the semiarid delimitation of Brazil, more than 86% of its territory, Paraíba is one of the Brazilian states where aridity is more severe. The availability of water is a decisive process in terms of its effective environmental, social and economic development, which is closely dependent on the prevailing climatic conditions. In this context, the need for the quantification of indexes that have as purpose, the climatic characterization of a given location, in order to better suit the prevailing climate classes, emerges. Thus, the present study aims to weave past scenarios of spatial and temporal variability of climatic indexes. Therefore, climatic indexes are calculated from normal climatological and serial annual data for a period of fifty years to twenty pluviometric stations carefully selected and distributed throughout the state of Paraíba. The methodology proposed by Thornthwaite (1948) and the aridity index applied by the United Nations Environment Program - UNEP (1992) are taken into account. As a subsidy, the conceptual application of spectral methods with the subsequent application of the wavelet analysis to the serial climatic indexes is used. It turns out that even if different methodologies produce different climatic classifications for the same place and period of time, the development of interannual and interdecadal variabilities are extremely similar, recommending the same agents as cause of these variabilities. Even so, the UNEP aridity index is less critical for climate classifications than for the use of the Thornthwaite indices, showing less aridity. The interdecadal variability is significantly more apparent than the interannual variability, with a marked predominance in the 11-year scale, interacting with smaller scales of 5, 3.5 and 2.5 years, which tend to follow the main behaviors of the thermal variability in the basins of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Simple correlations indicate more significant connections between Pacific modes and the regions of Sertão and Alto Sertão, decreasing toward the coast. On the other hand, water anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean show almost homogeneous influence in much of the state of Paraíba, with a greater signal in the adjacent eastern range. It is also observed that climatic classifications in a serial way, with the processing of the percentages of each type of climate and temporal distribution, represents a more realistic method of climate analysis, given that, based on climatological normals, it describes an average local condition or regional climate.
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Bender, Fabiani Denise. "Verificação da previsão do tempo em São Paulo com o modelo operacional WRF". Universidade de São Paulo, 2012. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/14/14133/tde-19122012-120128/.
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Este estudo tem como objetivo a verificação das previsões diárias, das temperaturas máxima e mínima e precipitação acumulada, realizadas pelo modelo operacional de previsão numérica do tempo WRF (Weather Research Forecasting) para o estado de São Paulo. As condições iniciais e de fronteira fornecidas pela análise e previsão das 00UTC do modelo Global Forecast System (GFS), são usados no processamento do WRF, para previsões de 72 horas, em duas grades aninhadas (espaçamentos horizontais de grade de 50 km, D1, e 16,6 km, D2). O período avaliado foi de abril de 2010 a março de 2011. As comparações diárias das temperaturas máxima e mínima foram realizadas entre os valores preditos e observados nas estações de superfície de Registro, São Paulo, Paranapanema, Campinas, Presidente Prudente e Votuporanga (dados da CIIAGRO); através do erro médio (EM) e raiz do erro médio quadrático (REQM), para os prognósticos das 36, 60 e 72 horas. A precipitação acumulada diária é avaliada com relação ao produto MERGE, pela aplicação da ferramenta MODE, na previsão das 36 horas, para um limiar de 0,3 mm, no domínio espacial abrangendo o Estado de São Paulo e vizinhanças. Primeiramente, fez-se uma análise, comparando os pares de grade dos campos previsto e observado, utilizando os índices estatísticos de verificação tradicional de probabilidade de acerto (PA); índice crítico de sucesso (ICS); viés (VIÉS); probabilidade de detecção (PD) e razão de falso alarme (RFA). Posteriormente, foram analisados os campos de precipitação com relação à razão de área (RA); distância dos centroides (DC); razões de percentil 50 (RP50) e 90 (RP90). Os resultados evidenciaram que as saídas numéricas do modelo WRF com D2 tiveram desempenho melhor comparado à grade de menor resolução (maior espaçamento de grade horizontal, D1), tanto no prognóstico diário das temperaturas (máxima e mínima) quanto da precipitação acumulada. A temperatura apresentou um padrão de amortecimento, com temperaturas diárias máxima subestimada e mínima superestimada. Com relação à precipitação, as saídas numéricas do modelo GFS e WRF com D2 mostraram desempenho semelhante, com o D2 apresentando índices ligeiramente melhores, enquanto que as saídas numéricas do modelo WRF com D1 exibiram pior desempenho. Verificou-se um padrão de superestimativa, tanto em termos de abrangência espacial quanto em intensidade, para o modelo GFS e WRF em ambos os domínios simulados, ao longo de todo o período analisado. O percentil 50 é, geralmente, maior que o observado; entretanto, o percentil 90 é mais próximo ao observado. Os resultados também indicam que o viés dos modelos varia ao longo do ano analisado. Os melhores índices tanto com relação à precipitação quanto à temperatura foram obtidos para a estação de verão, com o modelo WRF com D2 apresentando melhores prognósticos. Entretanto, os modelos apresentam os maiores erros no inverno e no outono. Estes erros foram decorrentes de subestimativas das temperaturas máximas e superestimativas de área e intensidade de precipitação.Forecasts of daily maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall performed by the operational numerical weather prediction WRF (Weather Research Forecasting) model in the São Paulo are evaluated. Initial and boundary conditions provided by the 00UTC Global Forecast System (GFS) Model and WRF run for 72 hours, with two nested grids (with horizontal grid spacing of 50 km, D1, and 16.6 km, D2). The study was made for April 2010 to March 2011 period. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures comparisons were made, between predicted and observed data of the surface weather stations of Registro, São Paulo, Paranapanema, Campinas, Presidente Prudente and Votuporanga (CIIAGRO Data), through the mean error (ME) and root mean square error(RMSE), for the 36, 60 and 72 hours forecasts. The daily accumulated rainfall is evaluated using MODE with respect to the MERGE product, for the 36 hours forecast, with threshold of 0.3 mm over the spatial domain covering the State of São Paulo and neighborhoods. First, an analysis was made comparing grid pairs of predicted and observed fields, through the traditional statistical verification indexes: accuracy (PA), critical success index (ICS), bias (VIES), probability of detection (PD) and false alarm ratio (RFA). Subsequently, we analyzed the precipitation field with respect to area ratio (AR), distance from the centroids (DC), ratio of the 50th percentile (RP50) and ratio of the 90th percentile (RP90). The WRF, with D2 nested grid, had better performance compared to the grid of lower space resolution (higher horizontal grid spacing, D1) for both, daily temperatures (maximum and minimum) and the accumulated rainfall forecasts. The temperature forecast presented a damped pattern, with underestimated maximum and overestimated minimum values. Rainfall was overall overestimated spatially and in intensity for the three models throughout the analized period. The forecasted 50th percentile is generally higher than that observed, however, the 90th percentile is closer to observations. The results also indicate that the bias of the models varies annually. The best performances for both rainfall and temperature were obtained for the summer season, with the D2 showing slightly better results. However, the models had the biggest errors during the winter and autumn seasons. These errors were due to underestimation of maximum temperatures and overestimation in area and intensity of precipitation.
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Mirto, Clinton James. "A Sensor for Ice Monitoring on Bridge Superstructures". University of Toledo / OhioLINK, 2015. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=toledo1430411421.
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Balembois, Stéphanie. "Ecrire en vain ? Le questionnement éthique dans Le jeu de patience, "archi-roman" de Louis Guilloux". Phd thesis, Université Paris-Est, 2008. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00432050.
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Quel impératif pousse Guilloux à se tourner vers les autres? Provient-il d'un appel au sentiment ? D'un appel à la raison ? Est-il la réponse à une éthique ? Pourquoi cette nécessité de rendre la vie valable ? La valeur d'un homme se juge d'après ses actes semble dire Guilloux. Qu'est-ce qu'écrire en regard de l'action ? Comment écrire dans un monde en guerre ? L'écriture peut-elle être agissante ? Guilloux a voulu partager ses interrogations avec ses lecteurs, esquisser tous les cheminements possibles jusqu'à la contradiction. D'abord, montrer le processus de mythification entourant les actions des hommes qui ont précédé Guilloux dans cette vie. Ceux d'avant savaient agir ensemble et pour le bien de tous, ce savoir s'est perdu laissant l'individu seul face à ses doutes. Les tourments qui agitent le début du XXème siècle n'ont fait qu'exacerber le questionnement existentiel. Les divers degrés de responsabilité des hommes se dévoilent ainsi dans leurs manières de se conduire vis-à-vis d'autrui, autant d'engagements concrets ou de retraits qui attestent de l'humanité ou de l'inhumanité: " Trop et pas assez d'intelligence - trop et pas assez d'amour ". Ni la famille, ni la société, jaugée au travers de ses institutions, l'école, la justice, le clergé, ne répondent plus à l'exigence d'équité. Alors c'est aux hommes de s'unir. Agir, pour Guilloux, semble une forme de révolte et d'indignation contre la souffrance et l'injustice. Lutter, c'est aussi veiller sur la vie des autres. En refusant toutes compromissions, les personnages que Guilloux met en scène voient leur champ d'action se réduire à l'action humanitaire, quant à l'auteur lui revient le devoir de témoigner. Il se lance alors dans une écriture labyrinthique, un incessant jeu de miroir qui rapproche les hommes les plus différents : l'homme d'action, l'homme de lettres, l'homme militant, l'homme pas cru, l'homme en difficulté, l'homme perdu... chacun explore, estime, selon son itinéraire, la valeur accordée à sa vie et à celles des autres, hanté toujours par le devoir et la volonté de changer le monde
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Geurts, Anna Paulina Helena. "Makeshift freedom seekers : Dutch travellers in Europe, 1815-1914". Thesis, University of Oxford, 2013. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:2cfa072e-a9c4-42c9-a6b0-1e815d93b05c.
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This thesis questions a series of assumptions concerning the nineteenth- and early-twentieth-century modernization of European spaces. Current scholarship tends to concur with essayistic texts and images by contemporary intellectuals that technological and organizational developments increased the freedom of movement of those living in western-European societies, while at the same time alienating them from each other and from their environment. I assess this claim with the help of Dutch travel egodocuments such as travel diaries and letters. After a prosopographical investigation of all available northern-Netherlandish travel egodocuments created between 1500 and 1915, a selection of these documents is examined in greater detail. In these documents, travellers regarded the possession of identity documents, a correct appearance, and a fitting social identity along with their personal contacts, physical capabilities, and the weather as the most important factors influencing whether they managed to gain access to places. A discussion of these factors demonstrates that no linear increase, nor a decrease, occurred in the spatial power felt by travellers. The exclusion many travellers continued to experience was often overdetermined. The largest groups affected by this were women and less educated families. Yet travellers could also play out different access factors against each other. By paying attention to how practices matched hopes and expectations, it is possible to discover how gravely social inequities were really felt by travellers. Perhaps surprisingly, all social groups desired to visit the same types of places. Their main difference concerned the atmosphere of the places where the different groups felt at home. To a large degree this matched travellers' unequal opportunities. Therefore, although opportunities remained strongly unequal throughout the period, this was not always experienced as a problem. Also, in cases where it was, many travellers knew strategies to work around the obstacles created for them.
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Jaunat, Jessy. "Caractérisation des écoulements souterrains en milieu fissuré par approche couplée hydrologie-géochimie-hydrodynamisme : application au massif de l'Ursuya (Pays Basque, France)". Phd thesis, Université Michel de Montaigne - Bordeaux III, 2012. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00778427.
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Les aquifères fracturés sont un enjeu majeur de l'hydrogéologie actuelle. Ils constituent une ressource essentielle pour de nombreuses populations. Le massif de l'Ursuya (France, 64), en est une illustration. Constitué de formations métamorphiques fracturées, il est intensément exploité pour l'alimentation en eau potable. Une approche multidisciplinaire a permis la compréhension du fonctionnement de ce système. Les résultats obtenus constituent une avancée dans la connaissance des aquifères discontinus et offrent des pistes pour une gestion raisonnée de cette ressource.Le signal d'entrée est caractérisé dans sa composante quantitative et qualitative. Le suivi des paramètres climatiques permet d'estimer la lame d'eau participant à la recharge de l'aquifère. La caractérisation isotopique de l'eau précipitée met ensuite en évidence une origine majoritairement atlantique des masses d'air, responsables des précipitations sur le nord-ouest du Pays Basque. Des circulations atmosphériques sur la péninsule Ibérique, l'Europe du Nord et la région méditerranéenne sont cependant responsables de certains événements pluvieux. La composition chimique de l'eau de pluie, résultant de ces origines, est caractérisée par une faible acidité et par des concentrations en éléments anthropiques parfois élevées.L'hydrochimie des eaux souterraines est étudiée conjointement avec des données de temps de séjour acquises par l'interprétation des concentrations en 3H, CFC et SF6. Les caractéristiques physico-chimiques, les temps de séjours mesurés (moins de 10 ans à plus de 50 ans) et les phénomènes de mélanges associés permettent de proposer un modèle conceptuel des écoulements souterrains. Celui-ci met en exergue le rôle prépondérant du profil d'altération développé dans les milieux cristallins (de la surface vers la profondeur : altérites, roche fissurée et roche saine), du point de vue de la minéralisation de l'eau comme de celui des modalités d'écoulement.Une approche quantitative est finalement proposée. Du point de vue hydrodynamique, l'hétérogénéité spatiale est importante (10-4 m s-1 < K < 10-8 m s-1). Les altérites offrent une capacité de stockage et de régulation de la recharge. Un modèle numérique synthétise et valide ces résultats. Les simulations montrent de fortes interactions entre les réseaux d'écoulements superficiel et souterrain et de faibles impacts de l'exploitation actuelle sur les flux d'eau souterraine. Les évolutions climatiques ne modifieront pas significativement les écoulements durant les prochaines décennies. Une diminution des débits des sources et des cours d'eau est toutefois probable. Ce modèle numérique et l'ensemble des résultats obtenus serviront de base pour une gestion raisonnée de la ressource en eau de l'aquifère de l'Ursuya.
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Bogenschutz, Peter A. Ruscher Paul. "Skill assessment and benefits on applying the new weather research and forecast model to national weather service forcast operations". 2004. http://etd.lib.fsu.edu/theses/available/etd-11122004-131729.
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Thesis (M.S.)--Florida State University, 2004.Advisor: Dr. Paul Ruscher, Florida State University, College of Arts and Sciences, Dept. of Meteorology. Title and description from dissertation home page (viewed Jan. 12, 2005). Includes bibliographical references.
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"A Spatial Analysis of “Most Weather Warned” Counties by Severe Weather Phenomena in the Contiguous United States". Master's thesis, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/2286/R.I.53568.
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abstract: Severe weather affects many regions of the United States, and has potential to greatly impact many facets of society. This study provides a climatological spatial analysis by county of severe weather warnings issued by the National Weather Service (NWS) between January 1st, 1986 to December 31st, 2017 for the contiguous United States. The severe weather warnings were issued for county-based flash flood, severe thunderstorm, and tornado phenomena issued through the study period and region. Post 2002 severe weather warnings issued by storm warning area were included in this study in the form of county-based warnings simultaneously issued for each affected county. Past studies have researched severe weather warnings issued by the NWS, however these studies are limited in geographic representation, study period, and focused on population bias. A spatial analysis of severe weather warning occurrences by county identify that (a) highest occurrences of flash flood warnings are located in the desert Southwest and Texas, (b) severe thunderstorm warning occurrence is more frequent in Arizona, portions of the Midwest, the South, and the Mid and South Atlantic states, (c) the tornado activity regions of Tornado Alley and Dixie Alley (i.e. Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Illinois) contained the highest occurrences of tornado warnings, and (d) the highest instances of aggregate warning occurrences are found in the desert Southwest, the Midwest, and the Southern regions of the United States. Generally, severe weather warning “hot spots” tend to be located in those same regions, with greater coverage. This study concludes with a comparison of local maxima and general hot spot regions to expected regions for each phenomenon. Implications of this study are far reaching, including emergency management, and has potential to reduce risk of life.Dissertation/Thesis
Masters Thesis Geography 2019
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Harper, Kristine C. "Boundaries of research : civilian leadership, military funding, and the international network surrounding the development of numerical weather prediction in the United States". Thesis, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/1957/30321.
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American meteorology was synonymous with subjective weather forecasting in the
early twentieth century. Controlled by the Weather Bureau and with no academic
programs of its own, the few hundred extant meteorologists had no standing in the
scientific community. Until the American Meteorological Society was founded in
1919, meteorologists had no professional society. The post-World War I rise of
aeronautics spurred demands for increased meteorological education and training.
The Navy arranged the first graduate program in meteorology in 1928 at MIT. It
was followed by four additional programs in the interwar years. When the U.S.
military found itself short of meteorological support for World War II, a massive
training program created thousands of new mathematics- and physics-savvy
meteorologists. Those remaining in the field after the war had three goals: to create
a mathematics-based theory for meteorology, to create a method for objectively
forecasting the weather, and to professionalize the field. Contemporaneously,
mathematician John von Neumann was preparing to create a new electronic digital
computer which could solve, via numerical analysis, the equations that defined the
atmosphere. Weather Bureau Chief Francis W. Reichelderfer encouraged von
Neumann, with Office of Naval Research funding, to attack the weather forecasting
problem. Assisting with the proposal was eminent Swedish-born meteorologist
Carl-Gustav Rossby. Although Rossby returned to Stockholm to establish his own
research school, he was the de facto head of the Meteorology Project providing
personnel, ideas, and a publication venue. On-site leader Jule Charney provided the
equations and theoretical underpinnings. Scandinavian meteorologists supplied by
Rossby provided atmospheric reality. Six years after the Project began,
meteorologists were ready to move their models from a research to an operational
venue. Attempts by Air Force meteorologist Philip D. Thompson to co-opt
numerical weather prediction (NWP) prompted the academics, Navy, and Weather
Bureau members involved to join forces and guarantee that operational NWP
would remain a joint activity not under the control of any weather service. This is
the story of the professionalization of a scientific community, of significant
differences in national styles in meteorology, and of the fascination (especially by
non-meteorologists) in exploiting NWP for the control of weather.Graduation date: 2003
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Gianotti, Daniel Joseph. "Potential predictability of precipitation over the continental United States". Thesis, 2016. https://hdl.handle.net/2144/19726.
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Our ability to predict precipitation on climate time-scales (months–decades) is limited by our ability to separate signals in the climate system (cyclical and secular) from noise — that is, variability due to processes that are inherently unpredictable on climate time-scales. This dissertation describes methods for characterizing “weather” noise — variability that arises from daily-scale processes — as well as the potential predictability of precipitation on climate time-scales. In each method, we make use of a climate-stationary null model for precipitation and determine which characteristics of the true, non-stationary system cannot be captured by a stationary assumption. This un-captured climate variability is potentially predictable, meaning that it is due to climate time-scale processes, although those processes themselves may not be entirely predictable, either practically or theoretically.
The three primary methods proposed in this dissertation are
1. A stochastic framework for modeling precipitation occurrence with proper daily-scale memory representation, using variable order Markov chains and information criteria for order selection.
2. A corresponding method for representing precipitation intensity, allowing for memory in intensity processes.
3. A semi-parametric stochastic framework for precipitation which represents intensity and occurrence without separating the processes, designed to handle the issues that arise from estimating likelihoods for zero-inflated processes.
Using each of these methods, potential predictability is determined across the contiguous 48 United States. Additionally, the methods of Chapter 4 are used to determine the magnitude of weather and climate variability for the “historical runs” of five global climate models for comparison against observational data.
It is found that while some areas of the contiguous 48 United States are potentially very predictable (up to ∼ 70% of interannual variability), many regions are so dominated by weather noise that climate signals are effectively masked. Broadly, perhaps 20–30% of interannual variability may be potentially predictable, but this ranges considerably with geography and the annual seasonal cycle, yielding “hot spots” and “cold spots” of potential predictability. The analyzed global climate models demonstrate a fairly robust representation of weather-scale processes, and properly represent the ratio of weather-to-
climate induced variability, despite some regional errors in mean precipitation totals and corresponding variability.
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Rothrock, Matthew Carter. "Coordinating the Uncoordinated Giant: Applying the Four Flows Model of Communicative Constitution of Organizations to the United States Weather Enterprise". Thesis, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/1805/21295.
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Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI)The US weather enterprise includes academia, the private weather industry, and government-funded forecasting, research, and dissemination agencies. While not an organization in its own right, the enterprise behaves like an organization of organizations. This thesis applies the communicative constitution of organizations, and McPhee and Zaug’s four flows model in particular, to the US weather enterprise. Each organization in the weather enterprise behaves like individual members of an organization would, which extends this theory to a conceptualization of organization that increases innovation, collaboration, and coordination. The weather is a constitutive force which calls the US weather enterprise into being. Finally, CCO is extended to other collaborative, coordinated efforts among the public and private sectors, indicating the possibilities of CCO as an attractive answer to the great organizational questions of the 21st century and beyond. Future research areas are considered, including how the US weather enterprise manages the unexpected and reduces uncertainty organizationally. Also, considerations as to how CCO can be applied to the incident command structure, often called forward during high-impact weather events, will be made.
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(5930858), Shawn W. Simmons. "Intercomparison of spatiotemporal variability in severe weather environmental proxies and tornado activity over the United States". Thesis, 2019.
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Tornadoes cause numerous deaths and significant property damage each year, yet how tornado activity varies across climate states, particularly under global warming, remains poorly understood. Importantly, severe weather events arise during transient periods of extreme thermodynamic environments whose variability may differ from that of the environmental mean state. This study analyzes the climatological relationships between commonly-used severe weather environmental proxies (the product of convective available potential energy and bulk vertical wind shear, energy-helicity index, and the significant tornado parameter) and tornado density on three dominant timescales of climate forcing: diurnal, seasonal, and interannual. We utilize reanalysis data to calculate the spatial distributions of the mean, median, and a range of extreme percentiles of these proxies across each timescale as well as for the full climatology. We then test the extent to which each measure captures the spatiotemporal variability of tornado density over the continental United States. Results indicate that the mean is a suitable statistic when used with the full climatology of the energy-helicity index and the significant tornado parameter without using convective inhibition in calculations, the diurnal cycle for convective available potential energy and the product of convective available potential energy and bulk vertical wind shear, and the interannual variations for all proxies except convective available potential energy. The mean is outperformed by extreme percentiles otherwise. This understanding of climatological relationships between tornadoes and the large scale environments can improve prediction of tornado frequency and provides a foundation for understanding how changes in the statistics of large-scale environments may affect tornado activity in a future warmer climate state.