Artículos de revistas sobre el tema "Warranties and securities"

AbstractWe establish a “top-down” approximation scheme to approximate loss distributions of reinsurance products and Insurance-Linked Securities based on three input parameters, namely the Attachment Probability, Expected Loss and Exhaustion Probability. Our method is rigorously derived by utilizing a classical result from Extreme-Value Theory, the Pickands–Balkema–de Haan theorem. The robustness of the scheme is demonstrated by proving sharp error-bounds for the approximated curves with respect to the supremum and L2 norms. The practical implications of our findings are examined by applying it to Industry Loss Warranties: the method performs very accurately for each transaction. Our approach can be used in a variety of applications such as vendor model blending, portfolio optimization and premium calculation.

The paper provides a review of theoretical and practical aspects of GDP- linked warrants emission. Theoretical problems related to these securities are explored by way of comparison of original GDP-linked bonds and GDP-linked warrants, issued in the course of debt restructuring; practical aspects are ex- amined by means of a comparative overview of terms and conditions of most recent emissions of such financial instruments by Argentina, Greece, and Ukraine. Intrinsical discrepancies between theory and practice, combined with detected trends of tightening of terms and conditions of each successive emission, qualify authors for rationalization of the need of national and international monitoring over foreign debt restructuring negotiations.

This paper examines the price performance of call warrants in China's securities market. A recent sample of daily call warrant prices observed during the period from August 2005 to March 2007 is used. To the best of our knowledge this is the only recent study to using data from China and as such it greatly enhances our understanding of this particular market. On average, we find that the observed market prices are irrationally higher than the Black-Scholes model prices by 80.38% (using 180-day historical volatility) and 140.50% (using EGARCH volatility). However, we find another anomalous phenomenon that some of the call warrants prices are not only lower than the model prices, but have also recently been anomalously under their lower bounds. This finding seems to violate the "no arbitrage" principle. Among the convincing reasons, our findings indicate that trading mechanism constraints in China's securities market prevent rational investors from driving the prices of these call warrants to a reasonable level. Arbitrage chances are found to exist in some specific cases when the call warrant prices are below their lower bounds.

Bank-issued warrants are securitized options which are particularly designed to give smaller individual investors the opportunity to participate in the derivative markets. As banks incorporate potentially different margins on top of the theoretical fair values of the products, investors face the problem of choosing an optimal product. While previous literature has characterized individual investors as “noise traders”, this paper finds that they do act pricesensitively. In particular, we provide evidence that demand decreases with increasing margins, but also show that larger investors still realize lower margins than smaller investors.

In this article, the author argues that further changes to the Undertakings for Collective Investment Fund in Transferable Securities Industry are warranted to achieve transparency and fund comparability and above all to sustain its competitive position as a global brand.

Jefferson County, Alabama undertook a series of risky financial maneuvers in 2003 that included issuing large amounts of variable rate and auction rate securities as well as engaging in numerous interest rate swaps in order to lower the burgeoning costs of repairing its sewer system to comply with federal regulations. These complex financial instruments, intended to lower debt service costs on the countyʼs $3 billion in outstanding sewer warrants, led the county to financial bankruptcy in the wake of the financial markets collapse. This paper explores the choice of securities by analyzing the risk of adjustable rate securities and interest rate swaps, examining the Jefferson County case in detail, and providing some lessons for future financial management within the context of unexpected events such as the current recession.

Turbo warrants are liquidly traded financial derivative securities in over-the-counter and exchange markets in Asia and Europe. The structure of turbo warrants is similar to barrier options, but a lookback rebate will be paid if the barrier is crossed by the underlying asset price. Therefore, the turbo warrant price satisfies a partial differential equation (PDE) with a boundary condition that depends on another boundary-value problem (BVP) of PDE. Due to the highly complicated structure of turbo warrants, their valuation presents a challenging problem in the field of financial mathematics. This paper applies the homotopy analysis method to construct an analytic pricing formula for turbo warrants under stochastic volatility in a PDE framework.

The capital market has an important role in supporting a country's economy because the capital market has two functions at once, namely the economic function and the financial function. The capital market is a meeting place between parties who have excess funds (investors) and parties who need funds (companies) by buying and selling securities. The presence of the capital market has an important role for investors, both individual investors and business entities. They can channel the excess funds they have to invest, so that entrepreneurs can obtain additional capital funds to expand their business network from investors in the capital market. Issuers are parties conducting public offerings or companies that obtain funds through the capital market, both private and state-owned companies that seek capital from the stock exchange by issuing securities such as bonds, rights issues, warrants or shares (Malkan et al., 2021).

Purpose To review recent enforcement actions in which the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) enforced Rule 21F-17(a) under the Securities Exchange Act, which prohibits actions to impede whistleblower communications with the SEC, and to identify changes that entities subject to SEC regulation (including public companies, broker-dealers and investment managers) may wish to consider in their employee separation agreements and other documents that may include confidentiality provisions. Design/methodology/approach Examines settled cases since 2015, in which the SEC found that contractual provisions in employee separation agreements and other documents impeded employees from communicating with the SEC staff about possible violations of the securities laws, to identify the types of language that the SEC found to be problematic and the types of provisions that the SEC believes are desirable, if not legally mandated, to protect employee whistleblower rights and avoid impeding communications under Rule 21F-17(a). Findings Beginning in 2015, the SEC has actively enforced Rule 21F-17(a), focusing on provisions in separation agreements and other employee-related documents that potentially prevent employees from reporting legal violations to the SEC. The SEC’s efforts have resulted in settled orders involving alleged violations of the rule. The cases generally allege that provisions in employee separation agreements or other documents violated the rule because they prohibited or chilled employee communications with the SEC about possible legal violations. Practical implications Entities subject to SEC regulation (including public companies, broker-dealers and investment managers) should review their confidentiality agreements with employees and consider whether changes are warranted to address the SEC’s concerns as identified in the Rule 21F-17(a) cases. Originality/value Practical guidance regarding important whistleblower developments from experienced securities lawyer.

Economists directly observe warranted “fundamental” values in only a few cases. One is that of closed-end mutual funds: their fundamental value is simply the current market value of the securities that make up their portfolios. We use the difference between prices and net asset values of closed-end mutual funds at the end of the 1920s to estimate the degree to which the stock market was overvalued on the eve of the 1929 crash. We conclude that the stocks making up the S & P composite were priced at least 30 percent above fundamentals in late summer, 1929.

Abstract The paper focuses on China’s onshore bond market and the drivers of non-resident net portfolio flows into Chinese debt securities. Following a review of China’s bond market, a simple theoretical model of push and pull factors driving bond flows is built. It represents a foundation for the empirical analysis on drivers of bond flows into China. Static and time-varying models are estimated to explain the importance of push and pull factors in China’s bond market. While China-specific pull factors, such as domestic economic growth and asset returns, are important drivers of flows, the results reveal that global push factors, such as US interest rates and risk aversion, have recently gained significance as drivers of flows into China. The results confirm China’s continued bond market deepening and integration with the rest of the world, which may have financial stability implications. Therefore, increased awareness regarding bond market developments in China is warranted.

This article highlights one of the key problems of the financial market of Ukraine – the development of the derivative securities market. The relevance of the study of the problems of the market of derivative financial instruments based on the example of Ukraine is substantiated. Special attention is paid to the study of the scientific works of Ukrainian researchers and scientists, their results and the significance of these works for Ukraine. The article also highlights interesting approaches and relevant information on the basis of which this research was conducted. The main types of derivative securities (forward and futures contracts, options, swaps and warrants) and their key features are characterized – essence, terms of conclusion, functions and significance for the market, roles of participants in these operations, etc. The use of these derivatives is explained, with advantages and disadvantages indicated. The principles of the functioning of the derivatives market in Ukraine are also described and researched, the main types of derivatives concluded on the Ukrainian financial market over the past few years and the prevailing trends in this area are mentioned. With the use of statistical data and comparative analysis, the dynamics of the main indicators of the Ukrainian derivatives market were studied, compared with some indicators inherent in the world derivatives market, and graphically interpreted. With the help of general scientific methods of synthesis, induction and deduction, the main differences between the indicators of the Ukrainian and world markets of derivative financial instruments, as well as possible reasons for their appearance, were determined. The main internal shortcomings of the derivative securities market in Ukraine are highlighted. The influence of the mentioned shortcomings was studied, the negative consequences of the pandemic and full-scale war on the dynamics of these indicators were proved. In contrast to the described shortcomings, attention is focused on successful participants of the derivative securities market and the results of their activities. Key trends were also displayed graphically. In conclusion, the intended strategy of our state in solving the existing problems of the derivatives market is described, and its own ways of solving them and accelerating the development of the derivative financial instruments market in Ukraine are proposed.

This study verifies the existence of implied volatility distortion by the rapid growth of structured products such as Equity Linked Securities (ELS) in Korean financial markets and provides the policy implications to overcome such a distortion. The most ELS products issued in Korea have a step-down auto-callable payoff structure consisting of short position in down-and-in barrier put options and long position in digital call options. Financial companies which have issued ELS are exposed to the volatility risk, i.e. long vega position, and tend to execute the volatility transactions of short vega. For instance, the financial companies issue Equity-Linked Warrants or sell listed/over-the-counter vanilla options, both of which have short position in volatility risk. Accordingly, the demand for selling volatility is stronger than for buying volatility in the Korean financial markets. According to the empirical results, we conform that the rapid growth of the ELS products induces the pressure for lowering volatility and furthermore, the volatility spreads, defined as the difference between implied volatility and realized volatility, also decrease with respect the amount of the newly issued ELS. Lastly, to mitigate the volatility distortion effect, we suggest to list VKOSPI-related derivatives securities such as VKOSPI futures and options, which in turn balance the trading demands for selling and buying volatilities.

The investors search the financial instruments which contain least cost and reduced risk. As a recap, the financial instrument is negotiable contracts and they are two sorts, at the: • First, the traditional assets financials with that are negotiated in market of the stock exchange (shares, bonds, and the part in organism for collective investment in securities value …) or other cash instruments such as loans and deposits commercialize in the market; • Second, the derived financial product: there are two types of contracts, for the one a close position like (forwards, futures, swaps) and for the other one, the optional position likes options or warrants. So, all Islamic country observes that the option hasn’t legitimate in stock exchange and it has for originate most of the doctrine of Islam prohibit the transaction with all kinds of options,this implies a complete absence of options in the financial markets of Muslim countries and this context a random yield with in the money (ITM) of option equal zero.

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the impact that the introduction of exchange traded derivative warrants has on the underlying securities' price, volume and volatility in the Australian market. The impact that derivative trading has on the underlying security is essential to our understanding of security market behaviour and important in the fields of market efficiency and pricing of derivatives. The major findings of significant negative abnormal returns, reduction in skewness, no change in beta and small changes in variance are consistent with recent research findings in the US, UK and Hong Kong. However, the findings of derivative warrant listing resulting in decreased trading volume is in contrast with most prior research in the field. The results of this research, showing a negative price impact, decreased volume and no change in risk, and other recent empirical findings such as Mayhew and Mihov (2000) or Faff and Hillier (2003), indicate a requirement for further development of the theoretical frameworks.

The objective of this paper is to examine the incidence of unclaimed dividends and the role of quoted companies in Nigeria. The rising trend of unclaimed dividends has been a serious concern to government, stakeholders, and supervisory authorities like the Securities and Exchange Commission, (SEC), and Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). There has been some policies put in place to reduce unclaimed dividends over the years. Some of the policies and measures include Companies and Allied Matters Act (CAMA), Investment and Securities Act (ISA), Central Securities and Clearing System (CSCS), Bank Verification Number (BVN), and e-dividend payment system respectively. Despite, these measures, unclaimed dividend figures have risen from 30 billion Naira in 1996 to 130 billion Naira in 2017. Studies done to address unclaimed dividends attributed various factors, some of which are: investors not giving their correct addresses, non-delivery of dividend warrants to investors, and Registrar not doing their work. However, one area that has not been addressed is the role of quoted companies in the rising trend of unclaimed dividends in Nigeria. Some large quoted companies have set up registrars but are really departments, with no separate boards from the mother firm. In Nigeria, registrars are statutorily charged with the processing of dividends from the time a quoted firm declared dividends and when the dividends fund is finally transferred to the registrars in Nigeria. But an emerging trend that has not been addressed is that quoted companies are now warehousing unclaimed dividends as reported by the reports of Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). In other words, the dividends that have been declared and paid are still held and managed by the same quoted companies that paid the dividend. It is this trend that has prompted SEC to make proposal to the National Assembly for the review of CAMA law, to prevent quoted companies from exploiting the law. The quoted firms hitherto took advantage of the loop hole in CAMA to manage their already declared and paid dividends, months after payment through their owned established registrars. Though, about six shareholders associations have rejected the intervention of SEC in unclaimed dividend issues. But one of the principal functions of the SEC is to ensure is investor’s protection. It is against this background that the study investigate the quoted companies as a contributory factor in the rising trend of unclaimed dividends in Nigeria. The study used panel data analysis to run the quarterly data of unclaimed dividends amount with the quoted companies, the unclaimed dividend amounts with the registrars responsible for managing dividends, and the aggregate unclaimed dividends amount from 2012 to 2019. The study found that there was no difference between the role of quoted companies and the registrars in terms of managing unclaimed dividends in Nigeria. The study recommends a review of government policy that will continuously audit and sanction quoted companies that manage the unclaimed dividends through their subsidiaries or registrars and use it as working capital.

ABSTRACT: To address potential threats to auditor independence, the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (SOX) requires the audit committee to pre-approve nonaudit services (NAS) procured from the auditor. However, the presence of a former audit firm partner (FAP) affiliated with the current auditor on the audit committee could undermine the audit committee's due diligence over the NAS pre-approval process. To alleviate such concerns, the Securities and Exchange Commission approved a three-year “cooling-off” period for appointing audit firm alumni as independent directors. Our analyses show that the presence of both affiliated and unaffiliated FAPs on audit committees does not lead to greater NAS procured from the auditor; rather, FAPs reduce NAS procured from the auditor. Moreover, NAS decline significantly following the appointment of FAPs to the audit committee. Further tests suggest the three-year cooling-off period may not be warranted and deserves further investigation. Our study raises important implications for regulators, policy makers, corporate boards, and future research. Data Availability: Data are publicly available from sources identified in the text.

The purpose of this paper is to explore how market sentiment affects investor behavioral biases. By constructing a theoretical model, the paper analyzes how changes in market sentiment can lead to different behavioral biases by affecting investors’ information processing, risk perception, and decision-making framework. The article introduces behavioral finance theories, such as prospect theory and overconfidence, to explain how market sentiment shapes investors’ decision-making process. Through case studies, including the analysis of the discount rate of closed-end funds and the implied volatility of subscription warrants in the Chinese securities market, the paper reveals the close connection between market sentiment and investor behavioral biases. The findings suggest that fluctuations in market sentiment can significantly affect investors’ behavioral biases, which in turn have an impact on asset pricing and market volatility. The research in this paper not only provides new perspectives for understanding market dynamics, but also provides valuable guidance for investors and policy makers. Finally, the paper discusses the limitations of the study and possible directions for future research.

India, Israel, the UAE, and the US kickstarted a new minilateral forum as the foreign ministers of respective countries met for the first time on October 20, 2021. The minilateral forum, which is often regarded as the New Quad or the West Asia Quad, is said to focus as per the US State Department on “expanding economic and political cooperation in the Middle East and Asia, including through trade, combating climate change, energy cooperation and increasing maritime security.” At a time, fields like economy, technology, energy, and environment are increasingly securitized, this work asks whether there are any latent security factors for participants to come together vis-e-vis the extended West Asia landscape. The paper will look to what extent security factors have contributed to the formation of the forum from the perspective of four member countries. It will conclude by providing a picture of areas of cooperation that are warranted by the coming together of these countries and how each country could take pre-emptive steps to make the forum sustainable.

AbstractOne of the problems perceived to be at the heart of the global financial crisis was an amalgamation of various commercial and investment banking activities under one entity, as well as the interconnectedness of the banking entities with other financial institutions, investment funds, and the shadow banking system. This paper focuses on various measures that aim to structurally separate the banking entities and their core functions from riskier financial activities such as (proprietary) trading or investments in alternative investment funds. Although banking structural reforms in the EU, the UK, and the US have taken different forms, their common denominator is the separation of core banking functions from certain trading or securities market activities. Having reviewed the arguments for and against banking structural reforms and their varieties in major jurisdictions, including the EU, UK, US, France, and Germany, the paper argues that a more nuanced approach to introducing such measures at the EU level is warranted. Given the different market structures across the Atlantic and the lack of conclusive evidence of the beneficial impact of banking structural reforms, the paper concludes that the withdrawal of the banking structural reforms proposal by the European Commission has been a prudent move. It seems that in the absence of concrete evidence, experimenting with structural reforms at the Member-State level would be less costly and would provide for opportunities for learning from smaller experiments that could pave the way for a more optimal approach to banking structural reforms at the European level in the future.

Measuring and reporting liabilities at fair value is part of the FASB's overall project on fair value measurement and reporting. The FASB has taken the position that in measuring and reporting the fair value of a liability, such as a debt financial instrument, the fair value measure should reflect the credit standing of the issuer. Furthermore, changes in fair value, including the effect of changes in the issuer's credit standing, should be reported as gains and losses on the issuer's income statement. Whether liabilities should be reported at fair value and whether the fair value measure should incorporate credit standing and changes in credit standing are controversial issues. The primary controversy centers on the counterintuitive results of an entity's recording of a loss if its credit standing improves or a gain if its credit standing deteriorates. In this paper, we advocate an alternative position. We propose that liabilities be measured and reported using risk-free rates. This proposed approach recognizes the default risk portion of a debt's fair value as a distribution to shareholders when the liability is incurred. Our proposal supports the FASB's position that an entity's cost of borrowing, that is, interest expense on the entity's income statement, should reflect its credit standing and changes in its credit standing. We believe that our approach to accounting for liabilities is a viable alternative that warrants consideration. It avoids counterintuitive results, is consistent with the theories underlying the pricing of debt securities, and is more consistent with a going-concern assumption that an entity is expected to fulfill its debt obligations.

Abstract The use of unmanned aerial vehicles or “drones,” as part of the United States’ (US) targeted killing (TK) program dramatically increased after the War on Terror (WoT) was declared. With the ambiguous nature and parameters of the WoT, and stemming from the postulation of numerous low-level, niche-, and other securitizations producing a monolithic threat, US drone operations now constitute a vital stitch in the extensive fabric of US counterterrorism policy. This article employs the theories of securitization and macrosecuritization as discussed by Buzan (1991, 2006), and Buzan and Wæver (2009) to understand targeted killing, by means of weaponized drones, as an extraordinary measure according to the Copenhagen School’s interpretation. An overarching securitization and the use of the “security” label warrants the emergency action of targeted killing through the use of drones as an extraordinary measure. We argue that the WoT serves as a means of securitizing global terrorism as a threat significant enough to warrant the use of drone warfare as an extraordinary use of force. By accepting the WoT as a securitization process we can reasonably accept that the US’ response(s) against that threat are also securitized and therefore become extraordinary measures.

The relevance of this study is warranted by changes in the modern understanding of the interrelation between economic growth and financial depth. While earlier studies consider it to be universally positive, newer ones tend to challenge both nature and direction of such a relationship. This paper aims to investigate the nature of the financial depth-economic growth nexus in Ukraine during 2008–2019 based on data provided by the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine and the National Bank of Ukraine, using the standard OLS regression. The resulting model with an adjusted R squared of 0,96 confirms a strong (within a 90% confidence interval) linear relationship between real GDP per capita, denominated in local currency, which was used as a proxy for economic growth, and financial depth, which was assessed using three indicators: the share of bank loans to non-financial institutions in real GDP, the share of non-bank loans to non-financial institutions in real GDP, and the share of stock market capitalization in real GDP. Both bank and non-bank loans to real GDP ratios have a negative impact on economic growth (UAH 2,154 and UAH 78,154 decline per 1% growth, respectively), while market capitalization provides a positive influence (UAH 1,641,130 growth per 1% growth). This implies that, despite concentrating the majority of the resources available to the Ukrainian financial sector, the banking sector does not contribute to its economic growth. This can be alleviated by imposing additional restrictions on the amount of government securities allowed in a bank’s capital structure. AcknowledgmentsThe paper was funded as a part of the “Relationship between financial depth and economic growth in Ukraine” research project (No. 0121U110766), conducted at the State Institution “Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the NAS of Ukraine”.

The article analyzes the structure of Ukraine’s external debt liabilities for the period from 2011 to 2021 and in the period since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. It is determined that the amount of state external liabilities, taking into account projected data, may exceed 70% of this country’s GDP, which will become the dominant form of both attracting financial resources to the state budget and threatening the state security. The authors provide an assessment of the difficulties of restructuring the external debt in terms of the specific weight of the creditor and the weight of short-term payments for the period 2022-2023. It is concluded that at the beginning of 2022, the largest specific weight in the structure of external liabilities was the debt for issued securities for foreign markets and liabilities to international financial organizations and the EU. The main payments for them fall on the third quarters of 2022 and 2023 (3.0 and 3.6 billion USD, respectively), and the payment of interest accounts for 30% of total. The article considers possible mechanisms of write-off and restructuring of the state's external debts, taking into account international experience and with regard to the crises and military conflicts. The following mechanisms for write-off and restructuring of foreign debt are analyzed: Brady Plan for debt restructuring of developing countries; and debt relief programs for the poorest countries - HIPC (heavily indebted poor countries) and MDRI (The Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative). The authors identify the guidelines of work on minimizing Ukraine's external liabilities in 2022-2023. A conclusion is made regarding the initiation of negotiations on the restructuring and write-off of the external debt burden to ease the payments on external debts, including GDP warrants. Such a task should be carried out as soon as possible before the period of the largest payments and taking into account the existing support of the governments of leading foreign countries.

The article analyzes the structure of Ukraine’s external debt liabilities for the period from 2011 to 2021 and in the period since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. It is determined that the amount of state external liabilities, taking into account projected data, may exceed 70% of this country’s GDP, which will become the dominant form of both attracting financial resources to the state budget and threatening the state security. The authors provide an assessment of the difficulties of restructuring the external debt in terms of the specific weight of the creditor and the weight of short-term payments for the period 2022-2023. It is concluded that at the beginning of 2022, the largest specific weight in the structure of external liabilities was the debt for issued securities for foreign markets and liabilities to international financial organizations and the EU. The main payments for them fall on the third quarters of 2022 and 2023 (3.0 and 3.6 billion USD, respectively), and the payment of interest accounts for 30% of total. The article considers possible mechanisms of write-off and restructuring of the state's external debts, taking into account international experience and with regard to the crises and military conflicts. The following mechanisms for write-off and restructuring of foreign debt are analyzed: Brady Plan for debt restructuring of developing countries; and debt relief programs for the poorest countries - HIPC (heavily indebted poor countries) and MDRI (The Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative). The authors identify the guidelines of work on minimizing Ukraine's external liabilities in 2022-2023. A conclusion is made regarding the initiation of negotiations on the restructuring and write-off of the external debt burden to ease the payments on external debts, including GDP warrants. Such a task should be carried out as soon as possible before the period of the largest payments and taking into account the existing support of the governments of leading foreign countries.

Fruit production addressing the challenges of nutritional and livelihood securities, needs strategic planning and proper interventions for higher productivity and improved quality. In this context harnessing full production potential of perennial fruit crops, is necessary for ensuring sustainability and competitiveness of the industry and profitability to the growers. Majority of the perennial fruit crop orchards across vast tract of the country are characterized by the prevalence of old and unproductive trees with reduced fruiting potential (30-35%). The prolonged neglect in their management practices virtually make them unproductive. Replacing the old orchards through a new plantation is a more demanding process. Rejuvenation technology encompassing reiterative pruning, top-working and canopy rebuilding for augmenting productivity could be a viable option to be exploited for restoring health and vigour of the trees to ensure profitability of the orchards. Rejuvenation techniques confers multiple benefits such as early transformation and quality production from old unproductive, senile trees by better sunlight interception, utilization and efficient use of open space and applied inputs. The productivity augmentation is found to the tune of 2 - 6 times in various fruit crops through this technology has been demonstrated successfully in the recent past. Besides reiterative pruning, cultural operations like nutrition, irrigation, intercropping, mulching and plant protection measures need to be carried out properly and carefully to help improving soil health, tree vigour and production efficiency. However, faster adoption of this technology warrants that some physiological apprehensions of the growers that the old perennial trees will die after heavy pruning and they require abnormally long time to rebuild their canopy and bear profitability need to be removed through large scale field demonstrations. The technology is economically viable and can bring noticeable change in productivity of declining old orchards. Further research on physiology of shoot growth and bearing of severly pruned trees will not only help refinement of actual pruning process but also the associated cultural practices that are essentially required to expedite the whole re-invigorating process.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the empirical effects of modifying the calculation of the diluted earnings per share (EPS) number in an international compared to the US accounting setting. The diluted EPS calculation originated in the US Accounting Principles Board Opinion No. 15 (APB 15) and continues in both the US Statement of Financial Accounting Standard No. 128 (SFAS 128), EPS and International Accounting Standard 33 (IAS 33) EPS. Our analysis of the treatment of dilutive warrants and options versus other dilutive convertible securities extends the work of McEnroe and Sullivan (2018), hereafter referred to as McEnroe and Sullivan, 2018 and provides more insight into the impact on the international accounting regulatory environment. Using the McEnroe and Sullivan, 2018 proposed alternative EPS model, we investigate revising the EPS model and analyzing the impact on international data observations. Design/methodology/approach The authors selected our sample from the Compustat Fundamentals Annual Database – North America Daily file. Although using the Global – Daily file would be ideal, the data the authors need to make the alternative EPS calculations is not available in the Global database. The authors pulled data for the years 2010 through 2016 for both the USA and international companies. The authors eliminated companies based upon the criteria described later in the paper (which is comparable to the data restrictions set in McEnroe and Sullivan, 2018). Findings The results are comparable to the results of the US study. The authors find an average increase in diluted EPS to be 4.57 per cent and the median increase to be 2.43 per cent. McEnroe and Sullivan, 2018 found the average increase in diluted EPS to be 5.72 per cent and the median increase to be 3.81 per cent. The authors do not find a significant difference in the overall average percentage increase when looking across all of the years in the data set and comparing the USA to international observations. Overall, the authors further extend the previous conclusion of McEnroe and Sullivan, 2018 that both the USA and international standard setters should consider the alternative diluted EPS model for accounting regulation. Research limitations/implications The study consists of a sample of 262 international firms. An extended study, of all firms subject to International Accounting Reporting Standards (IFRS) might be used by the International Accounting Standards Board and then stratified by country to see if the capital structure of a particular nation’s securities is particularly impacted by the results. Practical implications As McEnroe and Sullivan, 2018, p. 499 state, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) avers that the price-earnings ratio of an equity is perhaps the most frequently cited business statistic in equity analysis. The authors cite one source Kuepper, (2018), that it is “one of the most popular metrics” on the international level of stocks using IFRS. Given that the denominator, in the price-earnings ratio is the focus of our study, as in the case McEnroe and Sullivan, 2018, the results have implications for the further study and revision of IAS 33. Social implications Again, as in the case of McEnroe and Sullivan, 2018, if currently reported diluted EPS results in lower equity prices than under the proposed model, an effect might be higher debt and equity costs. Since the authors are unaware of any rationale for the current treatment, the authors feel that the current formulation is less than optimal and that the issue of its provisions should be examined. Originality/value A review of the literature found no other study other than McEnroe and Sullivan, 2018 undertaking the issue.

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the empirical effects of an inconsistency in the calculation of the diluted earnings per share (EPS) number which originated in Accounting Principles Board Opinion No. 15 (APB 15) and continues in Statement of Financial Accounting Standard No. 128 (SFAS 128), EPS. The discrepancy involves the treatment of dilutive warrants and options versus other dilutive convertible securities and is explained in the section of this paper where the authors describe the proposed alternative EPS model. In a sample of 55 publicly traded companies in which they applied their model, it was found that the average increase in diluted EPS to be 5.7 per cent and the median increase to be 3.8 per cent. The authors believe that SFAS 128 should be considered, along with other factors, to be revised to direct that diluted EPS be computed in accordance with their model. Design/methodology/approach The authors selected a sample of companies from the Compustat Annual Database that had either Convertible Debt or Convertible Stock or both with a year-end between July 1, 2011 and July 1, 2012 which was the most recent data available at the time of the initial study. They then used the model assuming a “repurchase” of common shares as if the “treasury stock method” which applies to options and warrants also applied to these conversions. They then reduced the number of shares initially used to compute diluted EPS by the number of assumed repurchased shares. Using the revised number of shares, the authors recomputed diluted EPS as a percentage of the originally reported diluted EPS. Findings For the 55 companies in the sample, the average increase in diluted EPS using the “treasury stock method” was 5.7 per cent. The median increase was 3.8 per cent. The largest increase was 26.6 per cent and the smallest was 0 per cent. Research limitations/implications This is a one-year study of the sampled firms. A multi-year sample is recommended for further research. Also, the sample might be applied to foreign entities under the jurisdiction of IAS 33. Practical implications According to the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) the price-earnings ratio of an equity is perhaps the most frequently cited statistic in the business of equity investments. As the denominator in the price-earnings ration is the “diluted” EPS figure calculated under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) under Statement of Financial Accounting No. 128 (SFAS 128), the results have very significant implications for the recommended study and revision of the diluted EPS statistic. Social implications If the current diluted EPS reported numbers result in lower stock prices than would otherwise be the case under the authors’ model, then it seems likely that these companies with large amounts of debt would have a higher cost of equity capital than would otherwise be the case. The overall result would be a different allocation of equity capital than would be the case if convertible debt and convertible equity were treated the same way as options and warrants. As we are unaware of a rationale for the disparate treatment, it is believed that this a is a misallocation caused by a statement of the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) that seems flawed and recommend that it be considered to be revised. Originality/value A review of the literature found no other study addressing this issue.

ABSTRACT: An “ultimate learning algorithm” is one that produces models that closely match the real world’s underlying distribution of functions. To try to create such an algorithm, researchers typically employ manual algorithm design with cross-validation. It has been shown that cross-validation is not a viable way to construct an ultimate learning algorithm. For machine learning researchers, “meta-learning” should be more desirable than manual algorithm design with cross-validation. Meta-learning is concerned with gaining knowledge about learning methodologies. One meta-learning approach involves evaluating the suitability of various algorithms for a learning task in order to select an appropriate algorithm. An alternative approach is to incorporate predictions from base algorithms as features to be evaluated by subsequent algorithms. This paper reports on exploratory research that implemented the latter approach as a three-layer stacked generalization model using neural networks, logistic regression, and classification tree algorithms to predict all categories of financial fraud. The purpose was to see if this form of meta-learning offered significant benefits for financial fraud prediction. Fifteen possible financial fraud predictors were identified based on a theoretical fraud model from prior research. Only public data for these possible predictors were obtained from U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings from the period 1995–2002 for a sample of 50 fraud and 50 non-fraud companies. These data were selected for the year prior to when the fraud was initiated. These variables were used to create a variety of neural network, logistic regression, and classification tree models while using holdout sample and cross-validation techniques. A 71.4 percent accurate neural network model was then stacked into a logistic regression model, increasing the prediction accuracy to 76.5 percent. The logistic regression model was subsequently stacked into a classification tree model to achieve an 83 percent accuracy rate. These results compared favorably to two prior neural network studies, also employing only public data, which achieved 63 percent accuracy rates. Model results were also analyzed via probability-adjusted overall error rates, relative misclassification costs, and receiver operating characteristics. The increase in classification accuracy from 71 percent to 83 percent, the decline in estimated overall error rate from 0.0057 to 0.0035, and the decline in relative misclassification costs from 2.79 to 0.58 suggest that benefits were achieved by the meta-learning stacking approach. Further research into the meta-learning stacking approach appears warranted.

This paper summarizes the arguments and counterarguments within the scientific discussion on the issue of mutual funds’ composition across the business cycle. The main purpose of the research is to determine whether mutual funds alter their investments across the business cycle. Systematization of the literary sources and approaches for solving the problem of the relationship between the business cycle and the composition of mutual funds indicates that five-star rated mutual funds may have an investment strategy that is different from lower-rated funds. Investigation of the topic of the relationship between the business cycle and composition of mutual funds in the paper is carried out in the following logical sequence: First, we classified each quarter as an “improving” or a “worsening” business condition period based on the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index. As a result, we had seven “improving” and seven “worsening” business condition periods during our sample period. Then, we compared each star group (one-star to five-star) investments in common stocks, preferred stocks, convertible bonds, warrants, corporate bonds, municipal bonds, government bonds, other securities, and cash across the “improving” versus the “worsening” periods. The methodological tools utilized in this research were nonparametric tests. The objects of the research are the mutual funds listed in the CRSP quarterly mutual funds dataset for the 2003-2006 period. The paper presents the results of empirical analysis for these mutual funds, which showed that five-star funds tend to have a different strategy when compared to lower-rated funds. The research empirically confirms and theoretically proves that the five-star funds tend to invest more in riskier assets and they tend to better adjust to the conditions (i.e. invest more in common stocks and less in bonds in improving periods) when compared to the other groups. This explains their success: higher NAVs compared to the other groups and higher star ratings. On the other hand, our results show that the lower-rated funds do not adjust their investments in main asset classes like stock and bonds during “improving” versus “worsening” business condition periods. Overall, our results indicate that mutual funds’ star ratings and NAVs are linked to these funds’ success in their adaptation to the macro-economic environment. The results of the research can be useful for investment firms or individual investors that consider investing in U.S. mutual funds. Keywords: mutual fund, portfolio, business cycle, recession, net asset value.

The text attempts to analyse the GDR Ministry of State Security’s offensive operations using the instruments of radio-electronic intelligence against the PPR in 1981. The situation in Poland, the emergence of Solidarność and possible, uncontrolled spreading of a wave of democratisation onto the East Germany’s territory as well, drove the leaders of the latter state to undertake actions aimed at ensuring it access to information on the on-going situation in the PRP. Apart from the data obtained officially, they also intended to resort to independent methods for its acquisition, most of all by employing the secret services. The author focuses on just one aspects of such operations, that is, radio-electronic intelligence. Apart from describing the structure and the working methods of the MfS’ III Directorate responsible for this type of reconnaissance, he presents the guidelines received by this organisation, its modus operandi and forms of work both on the territory of the GDR and the PPR, as well as on that of the other states. He also points to the effects and all the problems resulting from implementing intelligence operations, including those in the context of official co-operation between the secret services of the PPR and GDR. According to the author, the manner of carrying out offensive MfS operations by radio-electronic intelligence allows for a certain scepticism with regard to the thesis that the GDR services had unlimited opportunities to work in Poland. Based on the available archive sources, the observation that the MfS found it difficult to process and apply information obtained as a result of the services’ operations, is warranted. The shortage of competent staff can be clearly seen and not all the available technical instruments could perform their role. What was also important was the lack of understanding at the MfS of the different philosophy of life in the PPR, which determined the reception of its image obtained from the monitoring in place. Moreover, archive searches provide circumstantial evidence indicating that the Polish counter-intelligence was aware of what type of operations were being carried out by the GDR against Poland. The need for co-operation between the MfS and the MSW in the context of the radio-electronic intelligence against other states, as well as the awareness of the risk related to the possible discovery of illegal radio-electronic operations, led to their closing down. This failed, however, to change the belief that the fundamental operating principles of the secret services are to distrust one’s partners and to protect one’s own interests.

Abstract Background: Chimeric antigen receptor-modified (CAR) T cells have the potential to provide durable clinical benefit in patients with several relapsed or refractory hematologic malignancies. We aimed to characterize institutional resources utilized (other than T cell collection and CAR T cell manufacturing and infusion) around the time of CAR T cell administration. Methods: Adult patients treated on selected investigator-initiated clinical trials of CAR T cell therapy at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center were identified from the institutional database. Utilization data was collected from the start of admission for CAR T cell infusion through the end of the initial admission for infusion or through 30 days following initial CAR T cell infusion, whichever was longer. The data were sorted by disease type and into the categories of encounters, lab work, radiology, medications, and other diagnostic testing. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the data. Results: We identified 106 patients on 4 clinical trials receiving inpatient CAR T cell infusions between 6/2007 to 4/2018, with 56 patients (53%) having B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), 37 (35%) chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) or B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), and 13 (12%) multiple myeloma (MM). The median age was 53 years (range 22-77), 45 years (range 22-74), 64 years (range 35-77), and 58 years (range 43-68) for the total population, and the ALL, CLL/NHL, and MM groups, respectively, and 65%, 75%, 41%, and 31% were male, respectively. The median length of stay for the admission during which CAR T cells was given was 23 days (range 4 -133), with ALL patients admitted longer (Figure 1). Intensive care unit (ICU) days were limited with a range of 0-43 days, though 43 (41%) spent at least one day in the ICU. Of note, some protocols required infusion of the CAR T cells to be in the ICU. ICU admissions for ALL patients were than for other histologies longer (median 9 days vs 4 days). Outpatient clinic visits through day 30 post CAR T cell infusion occurred in 57 (53%) patients, with more of these in the CLL/NHL patients (median of 2 visits, range 1-4). As expected, laboratory and radiology studies accounted for a large portion of resource utilization with a total of 62,953 laboratory panels and 1,190 radiology studies done during the study time frame. Fourteen percent of the labs were complete blood counts, basic or comprehensive metabolic panels, or liver function tests. For the total population, ALL, CLL/NHL, MM, there were a median of 63.5 (range 13-368), 91.5 (21-368), 47 (13-167), and 51 (range 38-113) of these panels done per patient during the time frame, respectively. Blood cultures accounted for 1.3% of the total laboratory tests. Among the radiology studies, 25% were CT scans, 10% MRIs, 7% PET scans, 5% ultrasounds, and 53% x-rays, with differences in patterns of use by disease type (Figure 2). Cardiac testing (echocardiographs & electrocardiograms) was done in 104 (98%, total 634 tests). Electroencephalogram was performed in 18 patients (17%, total 18 tests). There were 173 bone marrow aspirations/biopsies in 88 patients (83%) and 71 lumbar punctures in 38 patients (36%), many of which were potentially done for disease assessment rather than toxicity management. Finally, 41,331 units of medications were given in this time frame, of which chemotherapy was 328 units (0.8%). The median medication units per patient was 255 (range 35-2091), 423 (range 35-2091), 200 (range 41-1190), and 207 (range 90-666) for the total population, and the ALL, CLL/NHL, and MM patients groups, respectively. Thirty-two doses of tocilizumab were given to 25 patients (24%), with ALL patients receiving 23 of those doses (72%). Conclusion: While providing potential clinical benefit, CAR T cell therapy utilizes resources across the therapeutic spectrum, and increasing use of this therapeutic modality can create challenges in institutional resource capacity. Identifying these resources will allow for better care delivery and allocation of funds. Further refinement of CAR T cell products and improvements in CAR T cell-related toxicity management may permit safer delivery of this therapy and reduce costs per patient. Additional analysis of resource utilization among patients treated with commercial CAR T cell products, as well as comparison with alternative therapies and cost-effectiveness analysis, is warranted. Disclosures Shah: Amgen: Research Funding; Janssen: Research Funding. Park:Amgen: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Adaptive Biotechnologies: Consultancy; Shire: Consultancy; AstraZeneca: Consultancy; Pfizer: Consultancy; Novartis: Consultancy; Kite Pharma: Consultancy; Juno Therapeutics: Consultancy, Research Funding. Sauter:Juno Therapeutics: Consultancy, Research Funding; Sanofi-Genzyme: Consultancy, Research Funding; Spectrum Pharmaceuticals: Consultancy; Novartis: Consultancy; Precision Biosciences: Consultancy; Kite: Consultancy. Palomba:Pharmacyclics: Consultancy; Celgene: Consultancy. Younes:Genentech: Research Funding; BMS: Honoraria, Research Funding; Pharmacyclics: Research Funding; Abbvie: Honoraria; Merck: Honoraria; Takeda: Honoraria; J&J: Research Funding; Incyte: Honoraria; Janssen: Honoraria, Research Funding; Celgene: Honoraria; Roche: Honoraria, Research Funding; Curis: Research Funding; Astra Zeneca: Research Funding; Novartis: Research Funding; Bayer: Honoraria; Seattle Genetics: Honoraria; Sanofi: Honoraria. Geyer:Dava Oncology: Honoraria. Smith:Celgene: Consultancy, Patents & Royalties: CAR T cell therapies for MM, Research Funding. Mailankody:Physician Education Resource: Honoraria; Janssen: Research Funding; Juno: Research Funding; Takeda: Research Funding. Perales:Incyte: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Other: Personal fees and Clinical trial support; Merck: Other: Personal fees; Takeda: Other: Personal fees; Abbvie: Other: Personal fees; Novartis: Other: Personal fees. Brentjens:Juno Therapeutics, a Celgene Company: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Patents & Royalties, Research Funding. Bach:Vizient: Other: Personal Fees; Hematology Oncology Pharmacy Assoc: Other: Personal Fees; Excellus Health Plan: Other: Personal Fees; Gilead: Other: Personal Fees; Foundation Medicine: Other: Personal Fees; JMP Securities: Other: Personal Fees; Janssen: Other: Personal Fees; Grail: Other: Personal Fees; American Society for Hospital Pharmacy: Other: Personal Fees; Kaiser Permanente: Research Funding; Third Rock Ventures: Other: Personal Fees; WebMD: Other: Personal Fees; Anthem: Other: Personal Fees; Goldman Sachs: Other: Personal Fees; Novartis: Other: Personal Fees; Defined Health: Other: Personal Fees.

AbstractIn 2022, various Chinese regulatory authorities, including the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and the State‐owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC), jointly issued documents and convened seminars at the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges to highlight the importance of credit protection tools, particularly credit risk mitigation warrants (CRMWs), to bolster corporate bond market financing. However, empirical research on the factors influencing CRMW prices in the Chinese market remains scarce. This study examines the factors affecting CRMW creation prices using a sample of CRMWs issued between 2018 and 2023 and analyzes the macroeconomic factors, characteristics of the underlying issuers, and related financial instruments. This study employs Shapley decomposition to evaluate the contribution of each variable. The findings reveal that, on the macroeconomic front, the year‐on‐year GDP growth rate from the previous quarter and the loan balance of financial institutions significantly and negatively impact CRMW prices. Regarding the underlying issuers, the issuer's credit rating and return on net assets significantly negatively affect CRMW prices, whereas the asset–liability ratio and issuer age have a significant positive impact. Additionally, related financial instruments such as bond interest rates and the risk mitigation certificate term positively contribute to the coverage of the underlying bond term and have a significant positive impact on CRMW prices.

In March 1997, the board chair of this small steel mill is pondering how to finance the growth of his firm: either with an initial public offering of equity or a private placement of 8-year senior notes with warrants. The task for the student is to sort out the comparative advantages and disadvantages of each alternative—including valuing the possible securities—and recommend a course of action.

Abstract The ECB’s Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) supports the effective transmission of the monetary policy stance throughout the euro area, which is a precondition for the ECB to deliver on its price stability mandate. If activated, the Eurosystem would purchase securities issued in jurisdictions that experience a deterioration in financing conditions not warranted by country-specific fundamentals. The TPI thereby complements other tools to counter risks to the transmission mechanism such as the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) reinvestment flexibility and the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme.

This paper develops a general model for equity volatility when the firm is financed by equity, debt and any other financial instruments like warrants and convertible bonds. The stochastic nature of equity volatility is endogenous and comes from the impact of a change in the value of the firm’s assets on the financial leverage. We first present the basic model to value corporate securities, which is an extension of the Black-Scholes model. Then, we are able to propose an analytic approximation for equity volatility, which is shown to be extremely precise. Finally, we study the behaviour of equity volatility when the firm is financed by equity and debt.

Market instability, increased competition, escalating price and reduced availability of conventional ingredients warrants the researchers to rely on alternative feed ingredients. This approach may help in producing aqua feeds in a sustainable and cost-effective way to accomplish the global food and nutritional securities. Mahua oil cake (Bassia latifolia) is an underutilized non-conventional ingredient that holds promise for incorporation into aqua feed following nutrient enhancement by solid-state fermentation. A five-month pond feeding trial was carried out to investigate the effects of Sachharomyces cerevisiae and Bacillus subtilis fermented mahua oil cake (MOC) on the production performance, nutrient utilization, digestive capacity, and innate immunological responses of Labeo rohita fingerlings. For this, two iso-nitrogenous feed were formulated and prepared incorporating fermented MOC at different levels i.e. 0 and 40 percentage replacing soybean meal and other feed ingredients and fed to rohu fingerlings of two treatment groups in pond culture for 5 months duration. Improved growth performance, feed conversion ratio, feed intake, protein efficiency ratio and digestive capacity were observed in fish fed diets with 40 percent of fermented MOC compared to control. Innate immune responses parameters (respiratory burst activity, myeloperoxidase, lysozyme and hemaglutination activities) were significantly higher (P < 0.05) in fishes fed with fermented MOC. Therefore, we conclude incorporation of solid state fermented mahua oil cake up to 40% level in diet of L. rohita fingerlings in pond culture without any adverse effects on growth, nutrient utilization and innate immune response.

Purpose This study aims to discuss the European Commission’s proposal for a pilot regime for market infrastructures to experiment with the distributed ledger technology (DLT). In this respect, the study comments on the purpose, scope, requirements and attention points for market operators, investment firms and central securities depositories (CSDs) that are considering using this technology. Design/methodology/approach This paper focuses on the proposed rules surrounding the DLT pilot regime. The study is based on an analysis of the proposal, compares it with existing literature and presents the purpose and scope of the regime, followed by a detailed analysis of the proposed requirements. Findings The proposed requirements aim to provide legal certainty, ensure investor protection, support innovation and protect financial stability. The European Commission attempts to reach these goals by establishing uniform requirements for the DLT market infrastructures by means of a European sandbox approach. This study stresses that a level playing field between the various market participants using the technology should be warranted and provides arguments for why the proposal is incomplete in this respect. Originality/value To the best of the author’s knowledge, there are no other articles that provide a holistic overview of the proposed regulation and describe the choices that legislators have made so far. This paper will be of interest to all market operators, investment firms and CSDs that have interest in DLT. The study is also of value to their stakeholders, such as their regulators, market participants and their clients, as well as to other linked financial market infrastructures.

Fraud crime using stocks (hereinafter referred to as fraud crime) refers to defrauding investments by supplying listed stocks, unlisted stocks, and overseas futures at lower prices than the actual transaction price using virtual securities companies and inducing investment by guaranteeing high returns. Since this crime is committed using fake phones and fake bank accounts in cyberspace called communication media, it is difficult to identify criminals, making it difficult to arrest them. Victims of fraud suffer from mental pain such as depression, anxiety, regret, and despair due to financial loss. Therefore, related agencies will not be able to stop crimes unless legal, institutional, and policy countermeasures are sought to prevent them. To prevent this, it is necessary to seek proactive and follow-up measures. First, the preliminary precautionary measure is ① by enacting a law on criminal law alarms to prevent damage by informing investigative agencies or financial institutions of the criminal law to the entire population. ② Even if an investor remits the investment, the investment should not be remitted for a certain period of time through the remittance transfer delay system, so that the investment should not be remitted to the criminal's account when the investor is judged to be fraudulent. ③ Financial institutions notify the investigative agency when a large amount of deposit and withdrawal accounts occur for a certain period of time, and when a damage report is received for the account, the investigative agency must immediately obtain a seizure and search warrant and confiscate it to prevent further damage. ④ Employees of financial companies should be able to impose the obligation to notify them through the revision of related laws that they can be punished if they are used for identification procedures and crimes when opening mobile phones and bankbooks. Next, the follow-up measures are ① The National Assembly should strengthen criminal punishment through the revision of the criminal law so that fraudulent crimes are not considered “remaining business,” so that potential criminals do not only prevent crime but also lead to crime. ② When a crime damage report is received, the investigative agency should obtain a real-time communication warrant so that the criminal can be located and arrested. ③ The National Assembly should unify the request for a search warrant from the police to the court so that investigative agencies can obtain warrants early and confiscate mobile phones and bank accounts. ④ The Ministry of Justice should establish a law enforcement agency dedicated to fraud so that it can arrest criminals and prevent crimes by securing expertise and giving investigative power superior to criminal methods. ⑤ The National Assembly should enact a law on suspension of withdrawal to prevent withdrawal when a financial institution requests the suspension of withdrawal, knowing that the investor is a fraud. These countermeasures will be a great driving force in preventing fraudulent crimes.

Photograph by Gonzalo Echeverria (2010)Declaring War Soon after Al Qaeda’s terrorist attacks on 11 September 2001, the Bush Administration described its new grand strategy: the “Global War on Terror”. This underpinned the subsequent counter-insurgency in Afghanistan and the United States invasion of Iraq in March 2003. Media pundits quickly applied the Global War on Terror label to the Madrid, Bali and London bombings, to convey how Al Qaeda’s terrorism had gone transnational. Meanwhile, international relations scholars debated the extent to which September 11 had changed the international system (Brenner; Mann 303). American intellectuals adopted several variations of the Global War on Terror in what initially felt like a transitional period of US foreign policy (Burns). Walter Laqueur suggested Al Qaeda was engaged in a “cosmological” and perpetual war. Paul Berman likened Al Qaeda and militant Islam to the past ideological battles against communism and fascism (Heilbrunn 248). In a widely cited article, neoconservative thinker Norman Podhoretz suggested the United States faced “World War IV”, which had three interlocking drivers: Al Qaeda and trans-national terrorism; political Islam as the West’s existential enemy; and nuclear proliferation to ‘rogue’ countries and non-state actors (Friedman 3). Podhoretz’s tone reflected a revival of his earlier Cold War politics and critique of the New Left (Friedman 148-149; Halper and Clarke 56; Heilbrunn 210). These stances attracted widespread support. For instance, the United States Marine Corp recalibrated its mission to fight a long war against “World War IV-like” enemies. Yet these stances left the United States unprepared as the combat situations in Afghanistan and Iraq worsened (Ricks; Ferguson; Filkins). Neoconservative ideals for Iraq “regime change” to transform the Middle East failed to deal with other security problems such as Pakistan’s Musharraf regime (Dorrien 110; Halper and Clarke 210-211; Friedman 121, 223; Heilbrunn 252). The Manichean and open-ended framing became a self-fulfilling prophecy for insurgents, jihadists, and militias. The Bush Administration quietly abandoned the Global War on Terror in July 2005. Widespread support had given way to policymaker doubt. Why did so many intellectuals and strategists embrace the Global War on Terror as the best possible “grand strategy” perspective of a post-September 11 world? Why was there so little doubt of this worldview? This is a debate with roots as old as the Sceptics versus the Sophists. Explanations usually focus on the Bush Administration’s “Vulcans” war cabinet: Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfield, and National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice, who later became Secretary of State (Mann xv-xvi). The “Vulcans” were named after the Roman god Vulcan because Rice’s hometown Birmingham, Alabama, had “a mammoth fifty-six foot statue . . . [in] homage to the city’s steel industry” (Mann x) and the name stuck. Alternatively, explanations focus on how neoconservative thinkers shaped the intellectual climate after September 11, in a receptive media climate. Biographers suggest that “neoconservatism had become an echo chamber” (Heilbrunn 242) with its own media outlets, pundits, and think-tanks such as the American Enterprise Institute and Project for a New America. Neoconservatism briefly flourished in Washington DC until Iraq’s sectarian violence discredited the “Vulcans” and neoconservative strategists like Paul Wolfowitz (Friedman; Ferguson). The neoconservatives' combination of September 11’s aftermath with strongly argued historical analogies was initially convincing. They conferred with scholars such as Bernard Lewis, Samuel P. Huntington and Victor Davis Hanson to construct classicist historical narratives and to explain cultural differences. However, the history of the decade after September 11 also contains mis-steps and mistakes which make it a series of contingent decisions (Ferguson; Bergen). One way to analyse these contingent decisions is to pose “what if?” counterfactuals, or feasible alternatives to historical events (Lebow). For instance, what if September 11 had been a chemical and biological weapons attack? (Mann 317). Appendix 1 includes a range of alternative possibilities and “minimal rewrites” or slight variations on the historical events which occurred. Collectively, these counterfactuals suggest the role of agency, chance, luck, and the juxtaposition of better and worse outcomes. They pose challenges to the classicist interpretation adopted soon after September 11 to justify “World War IV” (Podhoretz). A ‘Two-Track’ Process for ‘World War IV’ After the September 11 attacks, I think an overlapping two-track process occurred with the “Vulcans” cabinet, neoconservative advisers, and two “echo chambers”: neoconservative think-tanks and the post-September 11 media. Crucially, Bush’s “Vulcans” war cabinet succeeded in gaining civilian control of the United States war decision process. Although successful in initiating the 2003 Iraq War this civilian control created a deeper crisis in US civil-military relations (Stevenson; Morgan). The “Vulcans” relied on “politicised” intelligence such as a United Kingdom intelligence report on Iraq’s weapons development program. The report enabled “a climate of undifferentiated fear to arise” because its public version did not distinguish between chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear weapons (Halper and Clarke, 210). The cautious 2003 National Intelligence Estimates (NIE) report on Iraq was only released in a strongly edited form. For instance, the US Department of Energy had expressed doubts about claims that Iraq had approached Niger for uranium, and was using aluminium tubes for biological and chemical weapons development. Meanwhile, the post-September 11 media had become a second “echo chamber” (Halper and Clarke 194-196) which amplified neoconservative arguments. Berman, Laqueur, Podhoretz and others who framed the intellectual climate were “risk entrepreneurs” (Mueller 41-43) that supported the “World War IV” vision. The media also engaged in aggressive “flak” campaigns (Herman and Chomsky 26-28; Mueller 39-42) designed to limit debate and to stress foreign policy stances and themes which supported the Bush Administration. When former Central Intelligence Agency director James Woolsey’s claimed that Al Qaeda had close connections to Iraqi intelligence, this was promoted in several books, including Michael Ledeen’s War Against The Terror Masters, Stephen Hayes’ The Connection, and Laurie Mylroie’s Bush v. The Beltway; and in partisan media such as Fox News, NewsMax, and The Weekly Standard who each attacked the US State Department and the CIA (Dorrien 183; Hayes; Ledeen; Mylroie; Heilbrunn 237, 243-244; Mann 310). This was the media “echo chamber” at work. The group Accuracy in Media also campaigned successfully to ensure that US cable providers did not give Al Jazeera English access to US audiences (Barker). Cosmopolitan ideals seemed incompatible with what the “flak” groups desired. The two-track process converged on two now infamous speeches. US President Bush’s State of the Union Address on 29 January 2002, and US Secretary of State Colin Powell’s presentation to the United Nations on 5 February 2003. Bush’s speech included a line from neoconservative David Frumm about North Korea, Iraq and Iran as an “Axis of Evil” (Dorrien 158; Halper and Clarke 139-140; Mann 242, 317-321). Powell’s presentation to the United Nations included now-debunked threat assessments. In fact, Powell had altered the speech’s original draft by I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby, who was Cheney’s chief of staff (Dorrien 183-184). Powell claimed that Iraq had mobile biological weapons facilities, linked to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. However, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Mohamed El-Baradei, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the State Department, and the Institute for Science and International Security all strongly doubted this claim, as did international observers (Dorrien 184; Halper and Clarke 212-213; Mann 353-354). Yet this information was suppressed: attacked by “flak” or given little visible media coverage. Powell’s agenda included trying to rebuild an international coalition and to head off weather changes that would affect military operations in the Middle East (Mann 351). Both speeches used politicised variants of “weapons of mass destruction”, taken from the counterterrorism literature (Stern; Laqueur). Bush’s speech created an inflated geopolitical threat whilst Powell relied on flawed intelligence and scientific visuals to communicate a non-existent threat (Vogel). However, they had the intended effect on decision makers. US Under-Secretary of Defense, the neoconservative Paul Wolfowitz, later revealed to Vanity Fair that “weapons of mass destruction” was selected as an issue that all potential stakeholders could agree on (Wilkie 69). Perhaps the only remaining outlet was satire: Armando Iannucci’s 2009 film In The Loop parodied the diplomatic politics surrounding Powell’s speech and the civil-military tensions on the Iraq War’s eve. In the short term the two track process worked in heading off doubt. The “Vulcans” blocked important information on pre-war Iraq intelligence from reaching the media and the general public (Prados). Alternatively, they ignored area specialists and other experts, such as when Coalition Provisional Authority’s L. Paul Bremer ignored the US State Department’s fifteen volume ‘Future of Iraq’ project (Ferguson). Public “flak” and “risk entrepreneurs” mobilised a range of motivations from grief and revenge to historical memory and identity politics. This combination of private and public processes meant that although doubts were expressed, they could be contained through the dual echo chambers of neoconservative policymaking and the post-September 11 media. These factors enabled the “Vulcans” to proceed with their “regime change” plans despite strong public opposition from anti-war protestors. Expressing DoubtsMany experts and institutions expressed doubt about specific claims the Bush Administration made to support the 2003 Iraq War. This doubt came from three different and sometimes overlapping groups. Subject matter experts such as the IAEA’s Mohamed El-Baradei and weapons development scientists countered the UK intelligence report and Powell’s UN speech. However, they did not get the media coverage warranted due to “flak” and “echo chamber” dynamics. Others could challenge misleading historical analogies between insurgent Iraq and Nazi Germany, and yet not change the broader outcomes (Benjamin). Independent journalists one group who gained new information during the 1990-91 Gulf War: some entered Iraq from Kuwait and documented a more humanitarian side of the war to journalists embedded with US military units (Uyarra). Finally, there were dissenters from bureaucratic and institutional processes. In some cases, all three overlapped. In their separate analyses of the post-September 11 debate on intelligence “failure”, Zegart and Jervis point to a range of analytic misperceptions and institutional problems. However, the intelligence community is separated from policymakers such as the “Vulcans”. Compartmentalisation due to the “need to know” principle also means that doubting analysts can be blocked from releasing information. Andrew Wilkie discovered this when he resigned from Australia’s Office for National Assessments (ONA) as a transnational issues analyst. Wilkie questioned the pre-war assessments in Powell’s United Nations speech that were used to justify the 2003 Iraq War. Wilkie was then attacked publicly by Australian Prime Minister John Howard. This overshadowed a more important fact: both Howard and Wilkie knew that due to Australian legislation, Wilkie could not publicly comment on ONA intelligence, despite the invitation to do so. This barrier also prevented other intelligence analysts from responding to the “Vulcans”, and to “flak” and “echo chamber” dynamics in the media and neoconservative think-tanks. Many analysts knew that the excerpts released from the 2003 NIE on Iraq was highly edited (Prados). For example, Australian agencies such as the ONA, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, and the Department of Defence knew this (Wilkie 98). However, analysts are trained not to interfere with policymakers, even when there are significant civil-military irregularities. Military officials who spoke out about pre-war planning against the “Vulcans” and their neoconservative supporters were silenced (Ricks; Ferguson). Greenlight Capital’s hedge fund manager David Einhorn illustrates in a different context what might happen if analysts did comment. Einhorn gave a speech to the Ira Sohn Conference on 15 May 2002 debunking the management of Allied Capital. Einhorn’s “short-selling” led to retaliation from Allied Capital, a Securities and Exchange Commission investigation, and growing evidence of potential fraud. If analysts adopted Einhorn’s tactics—combining rigorous analysis with targeted, public denunciation that is widely reported—then this may have short-circuited the “flak” and “echo chamber” effects prior to the 2003 Iraq War. The intelligence community usually tries to pre-empt such outcomes via contestation exercises and similar processes. This was the goal of the 2003 NIE on Iraq, despite the fact that the US Department of Energy which had the expertise was overruled by other agencies who expressed opinions not necessarily based on rigorous scientific and technical analysis (Prados; Vogel). In counterterrorism circles, similar disinformation arose about Aum Shinrikyo’s biological weapons research after its sarin gas attack on Tokyo’s subway system on 20 March 1995 (Leitenberg). Disinformation also arose regarding nuclear weapons proliferation to non-state actors in the 1990s (Stern). Interestingly, several of the “Vulcans” and neoconservatives had been involved in an earlier controversial contestation exercise: Team B in 1976. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) assembled three Team B groups in order to evaluate and forecast Soviet military capabilities. One group headed by historian Richard Pipes gave highly “alarmist” forecasts and then attacked a CIA NIE about the Soviets (Dorrien 50-56; Mueller 81). The neoconservatives adopted these same tactics to reframe the 2003 NIE from its position of caution, expressed by several intelligence agencies and experts, to belief that Iraq possessed a current, covert program to develop weapons of mass destruction (Prados). Alternatively, information may be leaked to the media to express doubt. “Non-attributable” background interviews to establishment journalists like Seymour Hersh and Bob Woodward achieved this. Wikileaks publisher Julian Assange has recently achieved notoriety due to US diplomatic cables from the SIPRNet network released from 28 November 2010 onwards. Supporters have favourably compared Assange to Daniel Ellsberg, the RAND researcher who leaked the Pentagon Papers (Ellsberg; Ehrlich and Goldsmith). Whilst Elsberg succeeded because a network of US national papers continued to print excerpts from the Pentagon Papers despite lawsuit threats, Assange relied in part on favourable coverage from the UK’s Guardian newspaper. However, suspected sources such as US Army soldier Bradley Manning are not protected whilst media outlets are relatively free to publish their scoops (Walt, ‘Woodward’). Assange’s publication of SIPRNet’s diplomatic cables will also likely mean greater restrictions on diplomatic and military intelligence (Walt, ‘Don’t Write’). Beyond ‘Doubt’ Iraq’s worsening security discredited many of the factors that had given the neoconservatives credibility. The post-September 11 media became increasingly more critical of the US military in Iraq (Ferguson) and cautious about the “echo chamber” of think-tanks and media outlets. Internet sites for Al Jazeera English, Al-Arabiya and other networks have enabled people to bypass “flak” and directly access these different viewpoints. Most damagingly, the non-discovery of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction discredited both the 2003 NIE on Iraq and Colin Powell’s United Nations presentation (Wilkie 104). Likewise, “risk entrepreneurs” who foresaw “World War IV” in 2002 and 2003 have now distanced themselves from these apocalyptic forecasts due to a series of mis-steps and mistakes by the Bush Administration and Al Qaeda’s over-calculation (Bergen). The emergence of sites such as Wikileaks, and networks like Al Jazeera English and Al-Arabiya, are a response to the politics of the past decade. They attempt to short-circuit past “echo chambers” through providing access to different sources and leaked data. The Global War on Terror framed the Bush Administration’s response to September 11 as a war (Kirk; Mueller 59). Whilst this prematurely closed off other possibilities, it has also unleashed a series of dynamics which have undermined the neoconservative agenda. The “classicist” history and historical analogies constructed to justify the “World War IV” scenario are just one of several potential frameworks. “Flak” organisations and media “echo chambers” are now challenged by well-financed and strategic alternatives such as Al Jazeera English and Al-Arabiya. Doubt is one defence against “risk entrepreneurs” who seek to promote a particular idea: doubt guards against uncritical adoption. Perhaps the enduring lesson of the post-September 11 debates, though, is that doubt alone is not enough. What is needed are individuals and institutions that understand the strategies which the neoconservatives and others have used, and who also have the soft power skills during crises to influence critical decision-makers to choose alternatives. Appendix 1: Counterfactuals Richard Ned Lebow uses “what if?” counterfactuals to examine alternative possibilities and “minimal rewrites” or slight variations on the historical events that occurred. The following counterfactuals suggest that the Bush Administration’s Global War on Terror could have evolved very differently . . . or not occurred at all. Fact: The 2003 Iraq War and 2001 Afghanistan counterinsurgency shaped the Bush Administration’s post-September 11 grand strategy. Counterfactual #1: Al Gore decisively wins the 2000 U.S. election. Bush v. Gore never occurs. After the September 11 attacks, Gore focuses on international alliance-building and gains widespread diplomatic support rather than a neoconservative agenda. He authorises Special Operations Forces in Afghanistan and works closely with the Musharraf regime in Pakistan to target Al Qaeda’s muhajideen. He ‘contains’ Saddam Hussein’s Iraq through measurement and signature, technical intelligence, and more stringent monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Minimal Rewrite: United 93 crashes in Washington DC, killing senior members of the Gore Administration. Fact: U.S. Special Operations Forces failed to kill Osama bin Laden in late November and early December 2001 at Tora Bora. Counterfactual #2: U.S. Special Operations Forces kill Osama bin Laden in early December 2001 during skirmishes at Tora Bora. Ayman al-Zawahiri is critically wounded, captured, and imprisoned. The rest of Al Qaeda is scattered. Minimal Rewrite: Osama bin Laden’s death turns him into a self-mythologised hero for decades. Fact: The UK Blair Government supplied a 50-page intelligence dossier on Iraq’s weapons development program which the Bush Administration used to support its pre-war planning. Counterfactual #3: Rogue intelligence analysts debunk the UK Blair Government’s claims through a series of ‘targeted’ leaks to establishment news sources. Minimal Rewrite: The 50-page intelligence dossier is later discovered to be correct about Iraq’s weapons development program. Fact: The Bush Administration used the 2003 National Intelligence Estimate to “build its case” for “regime change” in Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. Counterfactual #4: A joint investigation by The New York Times and The Washington Post rebuts U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell’s speech to the United National Security Council, delivered on 5 February 2003. Minimal Rewrite: The Central Intelligence Agency’s whitepaper “Iraq’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programs” (October 2002) more accurately reflects the 2003 NIE’s cautious assessments. Fact: The Bush Administration relied on Ahmed Chalabi for its postwar estimates about Iraq’s reconstruction. Counterfactual #5: The Bush Administration ignores Chalabi’s advice and relies instead on the U.S. State Department’s 15 volume report “The Future of Iraq”. Minimal Rewrite: The Coalition Provisional Authority appoints Ahmed Chalabi to head an interim Iraqi government. Fact: L. Paul Bremer signed orders to disband Iraq’s Army and to De-Ba’athify Iraq’s new government. Counterfactual #6: Bremer keeps Iraq’s Army intact and uses it to impose security in Baghdad to prevent looting and to thwart insurgents. Rather than a De-Ba’athification policy, Bremer uses former Baath Party members to gather situational intelligence. Minimal Rewrite: Iraq’s Army refuses to disband and the De-Ba’athification policy uncovers several conspiracies to undermine the Coalition Provisional Authority. AcknowledgmentsThanks to Stephen McGrail for advice on science and technology analysis.References Barker, Greg. “War of Ideas”. PBS Frontline. Boston, MA: 2007. ‹http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/newswar/video1.html› Benjamin, Daniel. “Condi’s Phony History.” Slate 29 Aug. 2003. ‹http://www.slate.com/id/2087768/pagenum/all/›. Bergen, Peter L. The Longest War: The Enduring Conflict between America and Al Qaeda. New York: The Free Press, 2011. Berman, Paul. Terror and Liberalism. 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