Tesis sobre el tema "Uncertainty assessment in APT"
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Glass, Deborah Catherine y mikewood@deakin edu au. "Exposure estimation, uncertainty and variability in occupational hygiene retrospective assessment". Deakin University. School of Biological and Chemical Sciences, 1999. http://tux.lib.deakin.edu.au./adt-VDU/public/adt-VDU20051017.142634.
Texto completoSkinner, Laura. "Negotiating uncertainty : mental health professionals’ experiences of the Mental Health Act assessment process". Thesis, University of Leicester, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/8972.
Texto completoHridoy, Md Rafiul Sabbir. "An Intelligent Flood Risk Assessment System using Belief Rule Base". Thesis, Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för system- och rymdteknik, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-65390.
Texto completoDixon, William J. y bill dixon@dse vic gov au. "Uncertainty in Aquatic Toxicological Exposure-Effect Models: the Toxicity of 2,4-Dichlorophenoxyacetic Acid and 4-Chlorophenol to Daphnia carinata". RMIT University. Biotechnology and Environmental Biology, 2005. http://adt.lib.rmit.edu.au/adt/public/adt-VIT20070119.163720.
Texto completoCui, W. C. "Uncertainty analysis in structural safety assessment". Thesis, University of Bristol, 1989. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.303742.
Texto completoBudzinski, Maik. "The differentiation between variability uncertainty and knowledge uncertainty in life cycle assessment". Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2014. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-135913.
Texto completoBurke, Michael Martin. "Software dependability assessment". Thesis, University of Bristol, 1991. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.320203.
Texto completoMesa-Frias, M. "Modelling uncertainty in environmental health impact assessment". Thesis, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (University of London), 2015. http://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/2391599/.
Texto completoSenel, Ozgur. "Infill location determination and assessment of corresponding uncertainty". [College Station, Tex. : Texas A&M University, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/ETD-TAMU-2806.
Texto completoJesus, André H. "Modular Bayesian uncertainty assessment for structural health monitoring". Thesis, University of Warwick, 2018. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/109522/.
Texto completoFulchino, Matthew T. "An assessment of uncertainty due to adversary mobility". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/100373.
Texto completoCataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 47-50).
Uncertainty related to an adversary's tactics, techniques, and procedures is often difficult to characterize, particularly during the period immediately before a conflict, when planning for a face-to-face confrontation with a combatant. Adversarial freedom of maneuver and the fixed nature of asset defense leaves limited room for error or half-assessments, yet past analysis of regional defendability presumes a static, symmetric adversary, rather than a nimble, cunning one. This thesis examines historical events to identify the source of uncertainty with respect to defensive operations, and proposes that an alternative measure of performance be evaluated to fully characterize the effectiveness and limitations of defensive elements in the face of a determined peer.
by Matthew T. Fulchino.
S.M. in Engineering and Management
Chen, Qi. "Uncertainty quantification in assessment of damage ship survivability". Thesis, University of Strathclyde, 2012. http://oleg.lib.strath.ac.uk:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=19511.
Texto completoJayaraman, Venkataramanan. "Assessment of uncertainty management approaches in construction organizations". Diss., Connect to online resource - MSU authorized users, 2006.
Buscar texto completoTitle from PDF t.p. (viewed on June 19, 2009) Includes bibliographical references (p. 147-150). Also issued in print.
Blasone, Roberta-Serena. "Parameter estimation and uncertainty assessment in hydrological modelling". Kgs. Lyngby, 2007. http://www.er.dtu.dk/publications/fulltext/2007/MR2007-105.pdf.
Texto completoLevin, Rikard. "Uncertainty in risk assessment : contents and modes of communication". Licentiate thesis, Stockholm : Kungliga Tekniska högskolan, 2005. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-473.
Texto completoArkhipov, Ivan y Marina Boltenko. "Investment Under Uncertainty : Risk Assessment in Emerging Market Countries". Thesis, Jönköping University, JIBS, Economics, 2009. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-8029.
Texto completo
The overall purpose of the paper is to see how crediting institutions assess risks in emerging market countries. The paper describes prevalent economic and social conditions for each of the selected emerging market countries (Brazil, China, Kazakhstan, India, Russia and Ukraine) as examples of recent attractive investment locations in quest of higher returns. Second, recognizing the importance of ratings for risk management in credit institutions, the authors show what determines country ratings made by main rating agencies by running a linear regression on several macroeconomic indicators and the country ratings. It is also explained what the most widely-used ratings mean and described the correlation between the ratings as well as between the macroeconomic indicators and the ratings. The authors also describe the characteristic approach of a Scandinavian bank towards dealing with risk factors in emerging market countries. Concluding comments: risks happen to be inbound in the bank interest rates; there is no common pattern for banks to apply to all the emerging market countries and each market should be analyzed separately. Nordic banks have a relatively safe and careful strategy concerning lending in the emerging markets.
De, Aguinaga José Guillermo. "Uncertainty Assessment of Hydrogeological Models Based on Information Theory". Doctoral thesis, Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2011. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-71814.
Texto completoHydrogeologische Modellierung ist von erheblicher Unsicherheit geprägt. Überparametrisierte Modelle erhöhen die Unsicherheit, da gemessene Informationen auf alle Parameter verteilt sind. Die vorliegende Arbeit schlägt einen neuen Ansatz vor, um diese Unsicherheit zu reduzieren. Eine Möglichkeit, um dieses Ziel zu erreichen, besteht darin, ein Modell auszuwählen, das ein gutes Ergebnis mit möglichst wenigen Parametern liefert („parsimonious model“), und es zu kalibrieren, indem viele Informationsquellen genutzt werden. Das 1973 von Hirotugu Akaike vorgeschlagene Informationskriterium, bekannt als Akaike-Informationskriterium (engl. Akaike’s Information Criterion; AIC), ist ein statistisches Wahrscheinlichkeitskriterium basierend auf der Informationstheorie, welches die Auswahl eines Modells mit möglichst wenigen Parametern erlaubt. AIC formuliert das Problem der Entscheidung für ein gering parametrisiertes Modell als ein modellübergreifendes Optimierungsproblem. Die Anwendung von AIC in der Grundwassermodellierung ist relativ neu und stellt eine Herausforderung in der Anwendung verschiedener Messquellen dar. In der vorliegenden Dissertation werden maßgebliche Forschungsergebnisse in der Anwendung des AIC in hydrogeologischer Modellierung unter Anwendung unterschiedlicher Messquellen diskutiert. AIC wird an Grundwassermodellen getestet, bei denen drei synthetische Datensätze angewendet werden: Wasserstand, horizontale hydraulische Leitfähigkeit und Tracer-Konzentration. Die vorliegende Arbeit analysiert den Einfluss folgender Faktoren: Anzahl der Messungen, Arten der Messungen und Reihenfolge der kalibrierten Parameter. Diese Analysen machen nicht nur deutlich, dass die Anzahl der gemessenen Parameter die Komplexität eines Modells bestimmt, sondern auch, dass seine Diversität weitere Komplexität für gering parametrisierte Modelle erlaubt. Allerdings konnte ein solches Modell nur erreicht werden, wenn eine bestimmte Reihenfolge der kalibrierten Parameter berücksichtigt wurde. Folglich sollten zuerst jene Parameter in Betracht gezogen werden, die deutliche Verbesserungen in der Modellanpassung liefern. Der Ansatz, ein gering parametrisiertes Modell durch die Anwendung des AIC mit unterschiedlichen Informationsarten zu erhalten, wurde erfolgreich auf einen Lysimeterstandort übertragen. Dabei wurden zwei unterschiedliche reale Messwertarten genutzt: Evapotranspiration und Sickerwasser. Mit Hilfe dieser weiteren, unabhängigen Modellbewertung konnte die Gültigkeit dieses AIC-Ansatzes gezeigt werden
Kentel, Elçin. "Uncertainty Modeling Health Risk Assessment and Groundwater Resources Management". Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/11584.
Texto completoBhatt, Chinmay P. "Assessment of uncertainty in equivalent sand grain roughness methods". Birmingham, Ala. : University of Alabama at Birmingham, 2007. http://www.mhsl.uab.edu/dt/2007m/bhatt.pdf.
Texto completoBASTOS, BERNARDO LEOPARDI GONCALVES BARRETTO. "UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION AT RISK ASSESSMENT PROCEDURE DUE CONTAMINATED GROUNDWATER". PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2005. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=8184@1.
Texto completoFUNDAÇÃO DE APOIO À PESQUISA DO ESTADO DO RIO DE JANEIRO
A análise quantitativa de risco à saúde humana (AqR) devido a uma determinada área contaminada vem se verificando como importante ferramenta na gestão ambiental bem como a concretização de dano ambiental, tanto no Brasil como em outros países. Os procedimentos para AqR consistem em passos seqüenciados de forma orgânica e lógica e englobam características legais, aspectos toxicológicos e mecanismos de transporte. Apesar de não haver uma lei específica que regule a AqR, o Direito Ambiental permite que estas metodologias sejam plenamente aplicadas tanto no âmbito administrativo quanto no âmbito judicial para a caracterização de dano ambiental. As metodologias de AqR se valem de modelos fármaco-cinéticos que relacionam a exposição ao composto químico à possibilidade de causar danos à saúde humana. A Geotecnia Ambiental estuda o transporte e comportamento dos contaminantes nos solos e nas águas subterrâneas. A AqR se mostra um problema complexo e permeado por inúmeras incertezas e variabilidades. Foi proposta a utilização do método do segundo momento de primeira ordem (FOSM) para quantificar as incertezas relacionadas com a estimativa dos parâmetros de transporte a serem usadas em um modelo analítico de transporte de soluto em meios porosos (Domenico). O estudo de caso consiste na aplicação do programa desenvolvido para esta finalidade (SeRis). O método se mostra computacionalmente econômico e o estudo de caso, dentro das idealizações, identificou os parâmetros com maior importância relativa e apresentou uma variância total razoável para o resultado.
The quantitative human health risk assessment (AqR) due a contaminated site has became an important tool at Environmental Managenment and at the identification of environmental harm, at Brazil and other countries. The AqR procedures consists in logical sequence of actions concerned about legal aspects, toxicological matter and transport phenomena. In spite of the absence of a single law that could regulate specifically the AqR, the Environmental Law, as a whole, allows that AqR methodologies to be fully applied at governamental and judicial levels. The AqR procedures are base on pharmaco-kinetics models that quantitatively relates the exposure to the chemicals to human harm potency. The Environmental Geotechnics studies the fate and transport of contaminants at soil and groundwater. AqR is complex and full of uncertainties and variabilities subject. It have been proposed the application of the first order second moment method (FOSM) to quantify the uncertainties related to the estimation of the transport parameters to be used in the analytical transport model of solute in porous media (Domenico). It have been developed a specific software that meets this objective (SeRis). This software proved to be computationally efficient. The case study example indicated the relative importance of the considered parameters and presented a reasonable total system variance.
Léchelle, Jacques, S. Noyau, Laurence Aufore, Antoine Arredondo y Fabienne Audubert. "Volume interdiffusion coeffcient and uncertainty assessment for polycrystalline materials". Diffusion fundamentals 17 (2012) 2, S. 1-39, 2012. https://ul.qucosa.de/id/qucosa%3A13726.
Texto completoChen, Xiaoju. "Uncertainty Estimation in Matrix-based Life Cycle Assessment Models". Research Showcase @ CMU, 2017. http://repository.cmu.edu/dissertations/891.
Texto completoLéchelle, Jacques, S. Noyau, Laurence Aufore, Antoine Arredondo y Fabienne Audubert. "Volume interdiffusion coeffcient and uncertainty assessment for polycrystalline materials". Universitätsbibliothek Leipzig, 2015. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:15-qucosa-184476.
Texto completoSlaughter, Jean G. "Motives of Uncertainty: Accurate Self-Assessment or Self-Handicapping?" W&M ScholarWorks, 1987. https://scholarworks.wm.edu/etd/1539625424.
Texto completoFilipsson, Monika. "Uncertainty, variability and environmental risk analysis". Doctoral thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för naturvetenskap, NV, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-11193.
Texto completoNegativa effekter orsakade av skadliga ämnen och möjliga åtgärder bedöms och utvärderas i en miljöriskanalys, som kan delas i riskbedömning, riskkommunikation och riskhantering. Osäkerhet som beror på kunskapsbrist samt naturlig variabilitet finns alltid närvarande i denna process. Syftet med avhandlingen är att utvärdera några tillvägagångssätt samt diskutera hur osäkerhet och variabilitet hanteras då det är nödvändigt att båda hanteras trovärdigt och transparent för att riskbedömningen ska vara användbar för beslutsfattande. Metallers katalytiska effekt på bildning av klorerade aromatiska ämnen under upphettning av flygaska undersöktes (artikel I). Koppar visade en positiv katalytisk effekt medan kobolt, krom och vanadin istället katalyserade nedbrytningen. Kunskap om katalytisk potential för bildning av skadliga ämnen är viktigt vid val och design av förbränningsprocesser för att minska utsläppen, men det är också ett exempel på hur en fara kan identifieras och karaktäriseras. Information om exponeringsfaktorer som är viktiga i riskbedömning (fysiologiska parametrar, tidsanvändning och livsmedelskonsumtion) samlades in och analyserades (artikel II). Interindividuell variabilitet karaktäriserades av medel, standardavvikelse, skevhet, kurtosis (toppighet) och multipla percentiler medan osäkerhet i dessa parametrar skattades med konfidensintervall. Hur dessa statistiska parametrar kan tillämpas i exponeringsbedömningar visas i artikel III och IV. Probability bounds analysis användes som probabilistisk metod, vilket gör det möjligt att separera osäkerhet och variabilitet i bedömningen även när tillgången på data är begränsad. Exponeringsbedömningen i artikel III visade att vid nu rådande föroreningshalter i sediment i en badsjö så medför inte bad någon hälsofara. I artikel IV visades att osäkerhetsintervallet i den skattade exponeringen ökar när hänsyn tas till förändringar i klimatkänsliga modellvariabler. Riskhanterare måste ta hänsyn till försiktighetsprincipen och en ökad osäkerhet kan därmed få konsekvenser för riskhanteringsbesluten. Artikel V fokuserar på riskhantering och en enkät skickades till alla anställda som arbetar med förorenad mark på länsstyrelserna i Sverige. Det konstaterades att anställdas kön, ålder och erfarenhet har en inverkan på granskningsprocessen av riskbedömningar. Kön var den mest signifikanta variabeln, vilken också påverkade perceptionen av kunskap. Skillnader i de anställdas svar kunde också ses beroende på om riskbedömningen finansierades av statliga bidrag eller av en ansvarig verksamhetsutövare.
Clausen, Mork Jonas. "Dealing with uncertainty". Doctoral thesis, KTH, Filosofi, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-72680.
Texto completoQC 20120202
Ericok, Ozlen. "Uncertainty Assessment In Reserv Estimation Of A Naturally Fractured Reservoir". Master's thesis, METU, 2004. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/2/12605713/index.pdf.
Texto completoOK, Ö
zlen M.S., Department of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering Supervisor : Prof. Dr. Fevzi GÜ
MRAH December 2004, 169 pages Reservoir performance prediction and reserve estimation depend on various petrophysical parameters which have uncertainties due to available technology. For a proper and economical field development, these parameters must be determined by taking into consideration their uncertainty level and probable data ranges. For implementing uncertainty assessment on estimation of original oil in place (OOIP) of a field, a naturally fractured carbonate field, Field-A, is chosen to work with. Since field information is obtained by drilling and testing wells throughout the field, uncertainty in true ranges of reservoir parameters evolve due to impossibility of drilling every location on an area. This study is based on defining the probability distribution of uncertain variables in reserve estimation and evaluating probable reserve amount by using Monte Carlo simulation method. Probabilistic reserve estimation gives the whole range of probable v original oil in place amount of a field. The results are given by their likelyhood of occurance as P10, P50 and P90 reserves in summary. In the study, Field-A reserves at Southeast of Turkey are estimated by probabilistic methods for three producing zones
Karabogaz Formation, Kbb-C Member of Karababa formation and Derdere Formation. Probability density function of petrophysical parameters are evaluated as inputs in volumetric reserve estimation method and probable reserves are calculated by @Risk software program that is used for implementing Monte Carlo method. Outcomes of the simulation showed that Field-A has P50 reserves as 11.2 MMstb in matrix and 2.0 MMstb in fracture of Karabogaz Formation, 15.7 MMstb in matrix and 3.7 MMstb in fracture of Kbb-C Member and 10.6 MMstb in matrix and 1.6 MMstb in fracture of Derdere Formation. Sensitivity analysis of the inputs showed that matrix porosity, net thickness and fracture porosity are significant in Karabogaz Formation and Kbb-C Member reserve estimation while water saturation and fracture porosity are most significant in estimation of Derdere Formation reserves.
Yuan, Chengwu. "An efficient Bayesian approach to history matching and uncertainty assessment". Texas A&M University, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/4962.
Texto completoMacAulay, Gavin. "Characterisation of structured surfaces and assessment of associated measurement uncertainty". Thesis, Brunel University, 2016. http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/13473.
Texto completoKoops, Marten A. "Misinformation and assessment uncertainty in the ecology of information use". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/ftp03/NQ35042.pdf.
Texto completoDörr, Ulrike [Verfasser]. "Subjective Self-Assessment and Decision Making under Uncertainty / Ulrike Dörr". Kiel : Universitätsbibliothek Kiel, 2013. http://d-nb.info/1036406296/34.
Texto completoGoksel, Lorens Sarim. "Fatigue and damage tolerance assessment of aircraft structure under uncertainty". Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/49124.
Texto completoLea, Francesca C. "Uncertainty in condition and strength assessment of reinforced concrete bridges". Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2005. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.614976.
Texto completoLee, Renée. "Uncertainty and correlation in seismic risk assessment of transportation systems /". May be available electronically:, 2007. http://proquest.umi.com/login?COPT=REJTPTU1MTUmSU5UPTAmVkVSPTI=&clientId=12498.
Texto completoMaharaja, Amisha. "Global net-to-gross uncertainty assessment at reservoir appraisal stage /". May be available electronically:, 2007. http://proquest.umi.com/login?COPT=REJTPTU1MTUmSU5UPTAmVkVSPTI=&clientId=12498.
Texto completoKeller, Armin. "Assessment of uncertainty in modelling heavy metal balances of regional agroecosystems /". [S.l.] : [s.n.], 2000. http://e-collection.ethbib.ethz.ch/show?type=diss&nr=13944.
Texto completoZagonjolli, Migena. "Dam break modelling, risk assessment and uncertainty analysis for flood mitigation /". London : Taylor & Francis, 2007. http://opac.nebis.ch/cgi-bin/showAbstract.pl?u20=9780415455947.
Texto completoBaalousha, Husam M. [Verfasser]. "Risk Assessment and Uncertainty Analysis in Groundwater Modelling / Husam M Baalousha". Aachen : Shaker, 2004. http://d-nb.info/1172614350/34.
Texto completoDiggle, Rebecca. "Regulatory science and uncertainty in the risk assessment of pesticide residues". Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2010. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/11451/.
Texto completoAoudé, Georges Salim. "Threat assessment for safe navigation in environments with uncertainty in predictability". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/68401.
Texto completoCataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 213-224).
This thesis develops threat assessment algorithms to improve the safety of the decision making of autonomous and human-operated vehicles navigating in dynamic and uncertain environments, where the source of uncertainty is in the predictability of the nearby vehicles' future trajectories. The first part of the thesis introduces two classes of algorithms to classify drivers behaviors at roads intersections based on Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Hidden Markov Models (HMM). These algorithms are successfully validated using a large real-world intersection dataset, and can be used as part of future driver assistance systems. They are also compared to three popular traditional methods, and the results show significant and consistent improvements with the developed algorithms. The second part of the thesis presents an efficient trajectory prediction algorithm that has been developed to improve the performance of future collision avoidance and detection systems. The proposed approach, RR-GP, combines the Rapidly-exploring Random Trees (RRT) based algorithm, RRT-Reach, with mixtures of Gaussian Processes (GP) to compute dynamically feasible paths, in real-time, while embedding the flexibility of GP's nonparametric Bayesian model. RR-GP efficiently approximates the reachability sets of surrounding vehicles, and is shown in simulation and on naturalistic data to improve the performance over two standard GP-based algorithms. The third part introduces new path planning algorithms that build upon the tools that have been previously introduced in this thesis. The focus is on safe autonomous navigation in the presence of other vehicles with uncertain motion patterns. First, it presents a new threat assessment module (TAM) that combines the RRT-Reach algorithm with an SVM-based intention predictor, to develop a threat-aware path planner. The strengths of this approach are demonstrated through simulation and experiments performed in the MIT RAVEN testbed. Second, another novel path planning technique is developed by integrating the RR-GP trajectory prediction algorithm with a state-of-the-art chance-constrained RRT planner. This framework provides several theoretical guarantees on the probabilistic satisfaction of collision avoidance constraints. Extensive simulation results show that the resulting approach can be used in real-time to efficiently and accurately execute safe paths. The last part of the thesis considers the decision-making problem for a human-driven vehicle crossing a road intersection in the presence of other, potentially errant, drivers. The proposed approach uses the TAM framework to compute the threat level in real-time, and provides the driver with a warning signal and the best escape maneuver through the intersection. Experimental results with small autonomous and human-driven vehicles in the RAVEN testbed demonstrate that this approach can be successfully used in real-time to minimize the risk of collision in urban-like environments.
by Georges Salim Aoudé.
Ph.D.
Allaire, Douglas L. "Uncertainty assessment of complex models with application to aviation environmental systems". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/50601.
Texto completoIncludes bibliographical references (p. 131-136).
Numerical simulation models that support decision-making and policy-making processes are often complex, involving many disciplines, and long computation times. These models typically have many factors of different character, such as operational, design-based, technological, and economics-based. Such factors generally contain uncertainty, which leads to uncertainty in model outputs. For such models, it is critical to both the application of model results and the future development of the model that uncertainty be properly assessed. This thesis presents a comprehensive approach to the uncertainty assessment of complex models intended to support decision- and policy-making processes. The approach consists of seven steps, which are establishing assessment goals, documenting assumptions and limitations, documenting model factors and outputs, classifying and characterizing factor uncertainty, conducting uncertainty analysis, conducting sensitivity analysis, and presenting results. Factor uncertainty is represented probabilistically, characterized by the principle of maximum uncertainty, and propagated via Monte Carlo simulation. State-of-the-art methods of global sensitivity analysis are employed to apportion model output variance across model factors, and a fundamental extension of global sensitivity analysis, termed distributional sensitivity analysis, is developed to determine on which factors future research should focus to reduce output variability.
(cont.) The complete approach is demonstrated on a real-world model intended to estimate the impacts of aviation on climate change in support of decision- and policy-making, where it is established that a systematic approach to uncertainty assessment is critical to the proper application and future development of complex models. A novel surrogate modeling methodology designed specifically for uncertainty assessment is also presented and demonstrated for an aircraft emissions prediction model that is being developed and applied to support aviation environmental policy-making. The results demonstrate how confidence intervals on surrogate model predictions can be used to balance the tradeoff between computation time and uncertainty in the estimation of statistical outputs of interest in uncertainty assessment.
by Douglas Lawrence Allaire.
Ph.D.
Liem, Rhea Patricia. "System level assessment of uncertainty in aviation environmental policy impact analysis". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/62318.
Texto completoThis electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.
Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 83-93).
This thesis demonstrates the assessment of uncertainty of a simulation model at the system level, which takes into account the interaction between the modules that comprise the system. Results from this system level assessment process aid policy-makers by identifying the key drivers of uncertainty in model outputs, among the input factors of the various modules that comprise the system. This knowledge can help direct resource allocation for research to reduce the uncertainty in policy outputs. The assessment results can also identify input factors that, when treated as deterministic variables, will not significantly affect the output variability. The system level assessment process is demonstrated on a model that estimates the air quality impacts of aviation. The model comprises two modules: the Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT), which simulates aircraft operations to estimate performance and emissions inventories, and the Aviation environmental Portfolio Management Tool (APMT)- Impacts Air Quality module, which estimates the health and welfare impacts associated with aviation emissions. Global sensitivity analysis is employed to quantify the contribution of uncertainty in each input factor to the variability of system outputs, which here are adult mortality rates and total health cost. The assessment results show that none of the input factors of AEDT contribute significantly to the variability of system outputs. Therefore, if uncertainty reduction in the estimation of adult mortality and total health cost is desired, future research efforts should be directed towards gaining more knowledge on the input factors of the APMT-Impacts Air Quality module. This thesis also demonstrates the application of system level assessment in policy impact analysis, where policy impact is defined as the incremental change between baseline and policy outputs. In such an analysis, it is important to ensure that the uncertainty in policy impacts only accounts for the uncertainty corresponding to the difference between baseline and policy scenarios. Some input factors have a common source of uncertainty between scenarios, in which case the same representation of uncertainty must be used. Other input factors, on the other hand, are assumed to have independent variability between the different scenarios, and therefore need to have independent representation of uncertainty. This thesis demonstrates uncertainty assessment of a technology infusion policy analysis.
by Rhea Patricia Liem.
S.M.
Garibaldi, Jonathan Mark. "Intelligent techniques for handling uncertainty in the assessment of neonatal outcome". Thesis, University of Plymouth, 1997. http://hdl.handle.net/10026.1/1900.
Texto completoSrivastava, Anruag. "A Computational Framework for Dam Safety Risk Assessment with Uncertainty Analysis". DigitalCommons@USU, 2013. https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/1480.
Texto completoThorsén, Erik. "Assessment of the uncertainty in small and large dimensional portfolio allocation". Licentiate thesis, Stockholms universitet, Matematiska institutionen, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-176095.
Texto completoBecerra, Ernesto Jose. "Characterization and assessment of uncertainty in San Juan Reservoir Santa Rosa Field". Thesis, Texas A&M University, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/1628.
Texto completoSpindler, Henry C. (Henry Carlton) 1970. "Residential building energy analysis : development and uncertainty assessment of a simplified model". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1998. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/70305.
Texto completoIncludes bibliographical references (p. 163-165).
Effective design of energy-efficient buildings requires attention to energy issues during the preliminary stages of design. To aid in the early consideration of a building's future energy usage, a simplified building energy analysis model was developed. Using this model, a new computer program was written in C/C++ to calculate annual heat and cooling loads for residential buildings and to provide information about the relative importance of load contributions from the different building components. Estimates were made regarding the uncertainties of parameter inputs to the model, such as material properties, heat transfer coefficients and infiltration rates. The new computer program was used to determine the sensitivity of annual heat and cooling loads to model input uncertainties. From the results of these sensitivity studies, it was estimated that the overall uncertainties in the annual sensible heat and cooling load predictions amount to approximately ±30% and ±40%, respectively, for two buildings studied in Boston, Massachusetts. Further model simplification techniques were implemented that reduced annual load calculation times on a 180 MHz computer to about 8 and 12 seconds for a lightweight and massive building, respectively. The error introduced by these simplifications was approximately 4% and 10% for the annual sensible heat and cooling loads, well below the overall uncertainties in the load predictions. Comparison studies were performed with this new computer program and Energy-10. Overall, good agreement between the programs' annual load predictions was found.
by Henry C. Spindler.
M.S.
Jehan, Zainab. "Monetary policy rules, total factor productivity growth and uncertainty : an empirical assessment". Thesis, University of Sheffield, 2013. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/4574/.
Texto completoBottiglieri, Michael John. "Uncertainty assessment for free-running model cases at the IIHR wave basin". Thesis, University of Iowa, 2016. https://ir.uiowa.edu/etd/2049.
Texto completoSlinskey, Emily Anne. "Assessment of Observational Uncertainty in Extreme Precipitation Over the Continental United States". PDXScholar, 2018. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/4450.
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