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MOUSSA, NAJEM. "SIMULATION STUDY OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN BIDIRECTIONAL TRAFFIC MODELS". International Journal of Modern Physics C 21, n.º 12 (diciembre de 2010): 1501–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0129183110016007.
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Conditions for the occurrence of bidirectional collisions are developed based on the Simon–Gutowitz bidirectional traffic model. Three types of dangerous situations can occur in this model. We analyze those corresponding to head-on collision; rear-end collision and lane-changing collision. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we compute the probability of the occurrence of these collisions for different values of the oncoming cars' density. It is found that the risk of collisions is important when the density of cars in one lane is small and that of the other lane is high enough. The influence of different proportions of heavy vehicles is also studied. We found that heavy vehicles cause an important reduction of traffic flow on the home lane and provoke an increase of the risk of car accidents.
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Shiau, Yau-Ren, Ching-Hsing Tsai, Yung-Hsiang Hung y Yu-Ting Kuo. "The Application of Data Mining Technology to Build a Forecasting Model for Classification of Road Traffic Accidents". Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2015 (2015): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/170635.
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With the ever-increasing number of vehicles on the road, traffic accidents have also increased, resulting in the loss of lives and properties, as well as immeasurable social costs. The environment, time, and region influence the occurrence of traffic accidents. The life and property loss is expected to be reduced by improving traffic engineering, education, and administration of law and advocacy. This study observed 2,471 traffic accidents which occurred in central Taiwan from January to December 2011 and used the Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) of Feature Selection to screen the important factors affecting traffic accidents. It then established models to analyze traffic accidents with various methods, such as Fuzzy Robust Principal Component Analysis (FRPCA), Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN), and Logistic Regression (LR). The proposed model aims to probe into the environments of traffic accidents, as well as the relationships between the variables of road designs, rule-violation items, and accident types. The results showed that the accuracy rate of classifiers FRPCA-BPNN (85.89%) and FRPCA-LR (85.14%) combined with FRPCA is higher than that of BPNN (84.37%) and LR (85.06%) by 1.52% and 0.08%, respectively. Moreover, the performance of FRPCA-BPNN and FRPCA-LR combined with FRPCA in classification prediction is better than that of BPNN and LR.
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Retallack, Angus Eugene y Bertram Ostendorf. "Relationship Between Traffic Volume and Accident Frequency at Intersections". International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, n.º 4 (21 de febrero de 2020): 1393. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17041393.
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Driven by the high social costs and emotional trauma that result from traffic accidents around the world, research into understanding the factors that influence accident occurrence is critical. There is a lack of consensus about how the management of congestion may affect traffic accidents. This paper aims to improve our understanding of this relationship by analysing accidents at 120 intersections in Adelaide, Australia. Data comprised of 1629 motor vehicle accidents with traffic volumes from a dataset of more than five million hourly measurements. The effect of rainfall was also examined. Results showed an approximately linear relationship between traffic volume and accident frequency at lower traffic volumes. In the highest traffic volumes, poisson and negative binomial models showed a significant quadratic explanatory term as accident frequency increases at a higher rate. This implies that focusing management efforts on avoiding these conditions would be most effective in reducing accident frequency. The relative risk of rainfall on accident frequency decreases with increasing congestion index. Accident risk is five times greater during rain at low congestion levels, successively decreasing to no elevated risk at the highest congestion level. No significant effect of congestion index on accident severity was detected.
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Setiawan, Herry y Amsar Yunan. "Classification of Walking Cars and Pedestrians for the use of Automatic Incident Detection as an Effort to Reduce Risk of Accidents on the Highway". Jurnal Inotera 5, n.º 1 (15 de mayo de 2020): 50–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.31572/inotera.vol5.iss1.2020.id98.
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Traffic problems become very important to minimize the number of accidents. Recorded in 2017, the death toll from accidents reached 703 people. While in 2018 503 people died or fell by 28%. This figure is considered to be the third largest killer, under coronary heart disease and tuberculosis / tuberculosis. Among several causes of accidents such as against the flow of traffic, stops on the road, pedestrians and speeds that are too low compared to other vehicles. Even though the traffic signs are already installed. The low level of awareness of road users will increase the number of accidents. A detection system for potential accidents is needed to reduce the risk and can be used for the investigation process if an accident occurs. The application of a traffic accident prediction system will be a solution to provide a warning of potential accidents. Early detection of incidents is very important to limit consequences such as delays for other road users, lower costs, less time commitment to emergency services, as well as to prevent accidents. Video processing obtained from CCTV installed at intersections, highways, bridges and tunnels will detect pedestrians and oncoming cars automatically. Detection is done by processing each video frame to determine the foreground by the Gaussian mixture models method of each video frame.
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TSENG, JIE-JUN, MING-JER LEE y SAI-PING LI. "HEAVY-TAILED DISTRIBUTIONS IN FATAL TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS: ROLE OF HUMAN ACTIVITIES". International Journal of Modern Physics C 20, n.º 08 (agosto de 2009): 1281–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0129183109014345.
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Human activities can play a crucial role in the statistical properties of observables in many complex systems such as social, technological, and economic systems. We demonstrate this by looking into the heavy-tailed distributions of observables in fatal plane and car accidents. Their origin is examined and can be understood as stochastic processes that are related to human activities. Simple mathematical models are proposed to illustrate such processes and compared with empirical results obtained from existing databanks.
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Borucka, Anna, Edward Kozłowski, Piotr Oleszczuk y Andrzej Świderski. "Predictive analysis of the impact of the time of day on road accidents in Poland". Open Engineering 11, n.º 1 (12 de diciembre de 2020): 142–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/eng-2021-0017.
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AbstractThe steady increase in the number of road users and their growing mobility mean that the issue of road safety is still a topical one. Analyses of factors influencing the number of road traffic accidents contribute to the improvement of road safety. Because changes in traffic volume follow a daily rhythm, hour of the day is an important factor affecting the number of crashes. The present article identifies selected mathematical models which can be used to describe the number of road traffic accidents as a function of the time of their occurrence during the day. The study of the seasonality of the number of accidents in particular hours was assessed. The distributions of the number of accidents in each hour were compared using the Kruskal-Wallis and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. Multidimensional scaling was used to present the found similarities and differences. Similar hours were grouped into clusters, which were used in further analysis to construct the ARMAXmodel and the Holt-Winters model. Finally, the predictive capabilities of each model were assessed.
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Povalyaev, S. y O. Saraiev. "MODELING OF THE MECHANISM OF VEHICLE OVERTURNING IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPMENT OF ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENT". Theory and Practice of Forensic Science and Criminalistics 20, n.º 2 (4 de diciembre de 2019): 320–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.32353/khrife.2.2019.24.
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The development of mathematical models of vehicle overturning has been given significant attention by many researchers because of the need to obtain reliable information on the circumstances of road traffic accidents. Research of road traffic accidents with the overturning of vehicles is related with the difficulty to determinate the mechanism of overturning, because expert calculation methods do not always use the adapted mathematical models. Most of the methods focus on determining the minimum (critical) speed of vehicles, which leads to its overturning. However, the real speed of vehicles before overturning can be much higher. In this paper, a mathematical model of the process of vehicle overturning after a collision with an immovable lateral obstacle is given. Thus the overturning moment caused by the inertia forces acts on the vehicle, and the moment from the gravity that holds the vehicle from overturning. It is necessary to mark that the shoulder of moment from gravity changes from a maximal value to 0 in the process of vehicle overturning. The mathematical model is based on the basic equation of dynamics for rotational motion. The developed mathematical model is a nonlinear homogeneous differential equation of second order. A solution of this equation is obtained that allows us to determine the conditions for the vehicles overturning and to investigate the basic parameters of the movement of vehicles in the process of overturning from the moment when the center of mass of the vehicle begins to rise until the moment of its maximum lifting. A comparison of the results of calculating the critical speed of vehicles with results obtained on the basis of the law of energy conservation was carried out. The results are fully agreed. The numerical results obtained using a mathematical model for a particular vehicle have been analyzed.
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MOUSSA, NAJEM. "DANGEROUS SITUATIONS IN TWO-LANE TRAFFIC FLOW MODELS". International Journal of Modern Physics C 16, n.º 07 (julio de 2005): 1133–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0129183105007790.
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This paper investigates the probability of car accidents (PCA) in two-lane traffic flow models. We introduce new conditions for the occurrence of dangerous situations (DS) caused by an unexpected lane changing vehicles. Two different lane changing rules are considered, say symmetric and asymmetric. For the symmetric rules, we investigate the influence of the Nagel–Schreckenberg parameters such as the maximal speed, the randomization probability, …, on the PCA when vehicle moves forward or changes lanes. It is found that the forward PCA is as likely as that in one-lane traffic model. As regards to lane changing, the properties of the PCA are qualitatively different from those in one-lane traffic. For the asymmetric rules, we investigate the effect of the slack parameter Δ, introduced to adjust the inversion point of lane-usage, on the PCA. Contrarily to one-lane traffic, the forward PCA in the right lane exhibits two maximums for some range of Δ; the first one is located at low density and the second at high density. The lane changing PCA from right to left is found to decrease with increase of Δ. However, no DS exist when vehicles change from left to right.
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Kurganov, V. M., M. V. Gryaznov y K. A. Davydov. "CITY-FORMING ENTERPRISES: RELIABILITY AND REDUCED COSTS OF THE PASSENGERS’ TRANSPORTATION". Russian Automobile and Highway Industry Journal 17, n.º 1 (5 de marzo de 2020): 98–109. http://dx.doi.org/10.26518/2071-7296-2020-17-1-98-109.
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Introduction. The paper substantiates the relevance of reducing costs for regular passenger traffic and increasing their reliability in relation to cities with city-forming enterprises. The organizational and technological specificity of the regular route network of urban transport in such cities is disclosed. The authors propose a method for organizing regular transportation routes based on a rational combination of basic routes that require boarding and disembarking passengers only at stopping points and backup routes with boarding and disembarking passengers in any place not prohibited by the rules of road traffic. The authors demonstrate route network optimization of the regular passenger transportation using the proposed economic and mathematical model and taking into account the costs of forming the infrastructure for organizing traffic on backup routes, operating costs of transportation, as well as the cost of eliminating failures in urban transport. The developed mathematical model for assessing the reliability of regular passenger transportation differs from the well-known models, which take into account the availability of backup routes in the regular route network. The research proves the practical implementation of the proposed recommendations by the example of public transport routes in Magnitogorsk.Materials and methods. The authors used the analysis of scientific and regulatory literature; economic and mathematical modeling of transport processes; methods for calculating the reliability of technical and transport systems; the statistical, technical and economic system analysis.Results. As a result, the authors revealed the optimization of the economic and mathematical model of the regular passenger transportation in cities with city-forming enterprises and a mathematical model for assessing the reliability of regular passenger transportation. Moreover, the paper presented practical recommendations on the organization of reserve routes for regular passenger transport on the example of Magnitogorsk.Discussion and conclusions. By the implementation of theoretical principles, mathematical models and recommendations developed in the course of the research, the authors show the effect of implementation and the possibility to obtain new scientific results. Moreover, the authors demonstrate the formation of an additional volume of traffic by 178 thousand passengers a year, an increase in the speed of communication by 7 km per hour, a decrease in the cost of transporting one passenger by 7% and an increase in reliability by 1.14.Financial transparency: the authors have no financial interest in the presented materials or methods. There is no conflict of interest.
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Islam, Md Mazharul, Majed Alharthi y Md Mahmudul Alam. "The Impacts of Climate Change on Road Traffic Accidents in Saudi Arabia". Climate 7, n.º 9 (30 de agosto de 2019): 103. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli7090103.
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The potential costs of road traffic accidents (RTAs) to society are immense. Yet, no study has attempted to examine the impact of climate change on RTAs in Saudi Arabia, though RTA-leading deaths are very high, and the occurrence of climatic events is very frequent. Therefore, this study aims to assess the impact of climate change on RTAs in Saudi Arabia and to recommend some climate change mitigation and adaptation policies to make roads safe for all. This study employed annual data from 13 regions of Saudi Arabia, from 2003 to 2013. The data were analyzed on the basis of panel regression models—fixed effect, random effect, and the pooled ordinary least square. The findings show that temperature, rainfall, sandstorms, and number of vehicles were statistically and significantly responsible for RTAs in Saudi Arabia in the study period. This study also found that RTAs both inside and outside cities significantly caused injuries, but only RTAs inside cities significantly caused death. Furthermore, the death from RTAs injuries was found to be statistically significant only for motor vehicle accidents. The findings will assist policymakers in taking the right courses of action to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change through understanding climate influence on RTAs.
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Patriksson, Michael. "Robust bi-level optimization models in transportation science". Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 366, n.º 1872 (10 de marzo de 2008): 1989–2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2008.0007.
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Mathematical programmes with equilibrium constraints (MPECs) constitute important modelling tools for network flow problems, as they place ‘what-if’ analyses in a proper mathematical framework. We consider a class of stochastic MPEC traffic models that explicitly incorporate possible uncertainties in travel costs and demands. In stochastic programming terminology, we consider ‘here-and-now’ models where decisions must be made before observing the uncertain parameter values and the responses of the network users; the objective is to minimize the expectation of the upper-level objective function. Such a model could, for example, be used to derive a fixed toll pricing scheme that provides the best revenue for a given network over a time period, where variations in traffic conditions and demand elasticities are described by distributions of parameters in the travel time and demand functions. We present new results on the stability of globally optimal solutions to perturbations in the probability distribution, establishing the robustness of the model. We also discuss penalization and discretization algorithms, the latter enabling the use of standard MPEC algorithms, and provide many future research avenues.
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Jacyna-Gołda, Ilona, Jolanta Żak y Piotr Gołębiowski. "MODELS OF TRAFFIC FLOW DISTRIBUTION FOR VARIOUS SCENARIOS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF PROECOLOGICAL TRANSPORT SYSTEM". Archives of Transport 32, n.º 4 (31 de diciembre de 2014): 17–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/08669546.1146994.
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The paper is a result of a research work concerning the development of an environmentally friendly transport system - Project EMITRANSYS. The publication contains the issues of shaping the transport system, where important factor due to the aspect of sustainable development is including the external costs in transport activity. This paper presents a mathematical model of the distribution of the traffic flow in the transport network. The paper presents selected aspects of the problem of multi-variant distribution of the traffic stream on the network transport for defined scenarios for the transport system development. Traffic distribution on the network has been made due to the criterion function – external cost connected with air pollution. The paper presents modal split of traffic ecological flow for chosen scenarios of the development domestic transport system. Key words: distribution of traffic on the network,
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Jabłonka, Jarosław. "The analysis of exigencies of priority of crossing at intersections from the game theory's point of view". AUTOBUSY – Technika, Eksploatacja, Systemy Transportowe 19, n.º 6 (7 de septiembre de 2018): 110–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.24136/atest.2018.047.
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The assumption that each road participant adheres to the rules, ideally adapts his behavior to the prevailing road conditions, is unrealistic, and as the basis for taking action can lead to collisions and accidents. The article presents the theoretical models allowing to understand the behavior of drivers who deliberately enforce the priority of passing, and their only motivation is the shortest travel time through the intersection. Two types of situations at crossroads are considered: with guided and non-guided traffic with the STOP sign. The presented mathematical models are illustrated by the real-life recordings of drivers available on the Internet.
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Budzyński, Marcin, Kazimierz Jamroz, Łukasz Jeliński y Anna Gobis. "The Effects of Roadside Hazards on Road Accident Severity". Journal of KONBiN 49, n.º 2 (1 de junio de 2019): 319–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/jok-2019-0038.
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Abstract The risk of becoming involved in an accident emerges when elements of the transport system do not operate properly (man – vehicle – road – roadside). The road, its traffic layout and safety equipment have a critical impact on road user safety. This gives infrastructural work a priority in road safety strategies and programmes. Run-off-road accidents continue to be one of the biggest problems of road safety with consequences including vehicle roll-over or hitting a roadside object. This type of incident represents more than 20% of rural accidents and about 18% of all road deaths in Poland. Mathematical models must be developed to determine how selected roadside factors affect road safety and provide a basis for new roadside design rules and guidelines.
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HWANG, Taesung, Minho LEE, Chungwon LEE y Seungmo KANG. "META-HEURISTIC APPROACH FOR HIGH-DEMAND FACILITY LOCATIONS CONSIDERING TRAFFIC CONGESTION AND GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION". JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING AND LANDSCAPE MANAGEMENT 24, n.º 4 (16 de diciembre de 2016): 233–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/16486897.2016.1198261.
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Large facilities in urban areas, such as storage facilities, distribution centers, schools, department stores, or public service centers, typically generate high volumes of accessing traffic, causing congestion and becoming major sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. In conventional facility-location models, only facility construction costs and fixed transportation costs connecting customers and facilities are included, without consideration of traffic congestion and the subsequent GHG emission costs. This study proposes methods to find high-demand facility locations with incorporation of the traffic congestion and GHG emission costs incurred by both existing roadway traffic and facility users into the total cost. Tabu search and memetic algorithms were developed and tested with a conventional genetic algorithm in a variety of networks to solve the proposed mathematical model. A case study to determine the total number and locations of community service centers under multiple scenarios in Incheon City is then presented. The results demonstrate that the proposed approach can significantly reduce both the transportation and GHG emission costs compared to the conventional facility-location model. This effort will be useful for decision makers and transportation planners in the analysis of network-wise impacts of traffic congestion and vehicle emission when deciding the locations of high demand facilities in urban areas.
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Ma, Lu y Xuedong Yan. "Assessing Traffic Accident Occurrence of Road Segments through an Optimized Decision Rule". Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2015 (2015): 1–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/592626.
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Statistical models for estimating the safety status of transportation facilities have received great attention in the last two decades. These models also perform an important role in transportation safety planning as well as diagnoses of locations with high accident risks. However, the current methods largely rely on regression analyses and therefore they could ignore the multicollinearity characteristics of factors, which may provide additional information for enhancing the performance of forecasting models. This study seeks to develop more precise models for forecasting safety status as well as addressing the issue of multicollinearity of dataset. The proposed mathematical approach is indeed a discriminant analysis with respect to the goal of minimizing Bayes risks given multivariate distributions of factors. Based on this model, numerical analyses also perform with the application of a simulated dataset and an empirically observed dataset of traffic accidents in road segments. These examples essentially illustrate the process of Bayes risk minimization on predicating the safety status of road segments toward the objective of smallest misclassification rate. The paper finally concludes with a discussion of this methodology and several important avenues for future studies are also provided.
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Wang, Si Shuan. "Mathematical Modeling is Occupied Lane Road Access to the City 's Ability to Influence when the Accident". Advanced Materials Research 971-973 (junio de 2014): 2107–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.971-973.2107.
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With the development of cities, the traffic problem is getting attention , including a wide variety of lane blocking traffic problem is one of the major problems , such as car accidents , construction and other Jeeves , Jeeves research questions have lane is occupied impact on urban road capacity help science to solve these problems , this study had an accident when two easy-to-understand model to solve the problem in question . For question one and question two , we established a model of the actual capacity will be standardized different vehicles , and statistics in the video pcu amount of data analyzed by the choice of the trigonometric curve fitting using cftool Toolbox obtained as a function of the actual capacity and time , and finally by analyzing the relationship between the relevant factors and the number of vehicles in different lanes , traffic signal mechanism to complete the first two questions . For questions three and four problems , we established a mathematical model of the length of the traffic jam , traffic jams build road capacity and the actual length of the upstream traffic , traffic jam quantitative function of time , the same amount through the video pcu statistics , curve fitting , determine the unknown parameters to obtain the corresponding function , and using the prediction and analysis functions . The data given in the problem into three of the four models, solve for T equal to about 5.5 minutes . Model for the inevitable disadvantages , we try to model the new extension partly solved.
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Tian, Zhun. "Investigating Impact of Speed on Traffic Safety using Collision Prediction Model". Advanced Materials Research 779-780 (septiembre de 2013): 482–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.779-780.482.
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Motor vehicle speed is a risk factor contributing to many road accidents which result in significant social and economic costs. Although a review of previous research shows that the literature is extensive on the impact of speed on traffic safety, the majority of previous researches mainly focused on rural roads while rarely on urban roads. It is crucial that the relationship between speed and road collisions should be investigated in urban areas because of the fact that a high ratio of collisions is occurred on urban roads. The objective of this study is to examine the influence of motor vehicle speed on road collisions on urban road sections. This objective is achieved by developing collision prediction models which quantitatively correlate collision frequency to speed characteristics. It is found that both mean speed and speed standard deviation are positively related to collision frequency. Both of them are risk factors in traffic safety.
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van Gils, Paul, Eelco Over, Anita Suijkerbuijk, Joran Lokkerbol y Ardine de Wit. "PP017 Social Cost Benefit Analysis Of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy For Alcohol And Cannabis Addiction". International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care 33, S1 (2017): 75–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0266462317002082.
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INTRODUCTION:Due to their chronic nature and high prevalence, alcohol and cannabis addiction leads to a significant (disease) burden and high costs, both for those involved and for society. The latter includes effects on health care, quality of life, employment, criminality, education, social security, violence in the public and private domain, and traffic accidents. In the Netherlands, a considerable number of people with an alcohol or cannabis addiction currently do not receive addiction care. Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) is effective as a treatment for both alcohol and cannabis addiction and is widely used in specialized addiction care centers. This social cost-benefit analysis (SCBA) models costs and benefits of increasing the uptake of CBT for persons with an alcohol addiction and for adolescents with a cannabis addiction, taking into account a wide range of social costs and effects (1).METHODS:The method follows general Dutch guidance for performing SCBA. A literature search was conducted to evaluate efficacy of CBT for alcohol and cannabis dependence. In addition, the social costs of alcohol and cannabis addiction for society were mapped, and the costs of enhancing the uptake of CBT were explored. Costs and benefits of increased uptake of CBT for different social domains were modeled for a ten year period, and compared with current (unchanged) uptake during this period. Compliance problems (about 50 percent of clients do not finish CBT) and fall-back to addiction behavior (decrease of effects of CBT over time) were taken into account in model estimations.RESULTS:Per client treated with CBT, the estimated benefits to society are EUR10,000-14,000 and EUR9,700-13,000, for alcohol and cannabis addiction, respectively. These benefits result from reduced morbidity and mortality, improved quality of life, higher productivity, fewer traffic accidents, and fewer criminal activities.CONCLUSIONS:This SCBA shows that not only treated clients but also society will benefit from an increase in people treated with CBT in specialized addiction care centers.
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Akgüngör, Ali Payıdar y Erdem Doğan. "AN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENT APPROACH TO TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ESTIMATION: MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION". TRANSPORT 24, n.º 2 (30 de junio de 2009): 135–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/1648-4142.2009.24.135-142.
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This study proposes an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model and a Genetic Algorithm (GA) model to estimate the number of accidents (A), fatalities (F) and injuries (I) in Ankara, Turkey, utilizing the data obtained between 1986 and 2005. For model development, the number of vehicles (N), fatalities, injuries, accidents and population (P) were selected as model parameters. In the ANN model, the sigmoid and linear functions were used as activation functions with the feed forward‐back propagation algorithm. In the GA approach, two forms of genetic algorithm models including a linear and an exponential form of mathematical expressions were developed. The results of the GA model showed that the exponential model form was suitable to estimate the number of accidents and fatalities while the linear form was the most appropriate for predicting the number of injuries. The best fit model with the lowest mean absolute errors (MAE) between the observed and estimated values is selected for future estimations. The comparison of the model results indicated that the performance of the ANN model was better than that of the GA model. To investigate the performance of the ANN model for future estimations, a fifteen year period from 2006 to 2020 with two possible scenarios was employed. In the first scenario, the annual average growth rates of population and the number of vehicles are assumed to be 2.0 % and 7.5%, respectively. In the second scenario, the average number of vehicles per capita is assumed to reach 0.60, which represents approximately two and a half‐fold increase in fifteen years. The results obtained from both scenarios reveal the suitability of the current methods for road safety applications.
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Mutlu Aydin, Metin y Ali Topal. "EFFECTS OF PAVEMENT SURFACE DEFORMATIONS ON TRAFFIC FLOW". Transport 34, n.º 3 (27 de febrero de 2019): 204–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/transport.2019.8631.
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Pavement surface deformations have a significant effect on speed profile of vehicles and traffic flow conditions. These deformations limit driving properties and increase vehicle operation and maintenance costs. Additionally, they cause many problems such as accidents, slower movement speeds, capacity loss and severe discomfort states. There are many factors having an effect on road capacities and they vary according to different road and traffic flow conditions. In this study, it is aimed to investigate and develop models to estimate shockwave and bottleneck forming, capacity loss and speed reduction, which occurred on examined road links caused by pavement deformations. For the prediction of road capacity, flow–density (q–k) relationship, bottleneck and shockwave analysis methods were used. In the scope this study, deformed road links were divided into three sections; Section A – before deformation zone, Section B – deformation zone, and Section C – after deformation zone. All three sections were investigated and empirical results were obtained. According to analysis results, it was found that pavement surface deformations have a negative effect on the level of road service capability. Obtained results also showed that there are significant reductions in capacity relatively by up to 44 and 26% would result from surface deformations on deformed lanes and non-deformed adjacent lanes.
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Brdulak, Jacek y Piotr Pawlak. "Enterprise in the economic calculus of the impact of road investments". Kwartalnik Nauk o Przedsiębiorstwie 42, n.º 1 (29 de marzo de 2017): 47–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0010.0152.
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Development of infrastructure results in reduction of costs of transportation. It is a significant factor that influences both supply and demand side of production. By lowering the costs of transportation, production companies benefit, together with transport companies, who lower their own costs and thus they can be more competitive on the market of services. The article contains an analysis of mathematical and statistical methods used to measure and evaluate the effects of road investments. Gravity and potential, index and generated traffic models have been discussed. Assessment of the profitability of the investment and benefits for many has been presented on the example of the construction of 21 km section of a motorway which is a bypass of Mińsk Mazowiecki.
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Mikolaj, Jan, Lubos Remek y Marian Macula. "Asphalt Concrete Overlay Optimization Based on Pavement Performance Models". Advances in Materials Science and Engineering 2017 (2017): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2017/6063508.
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The life cycle length of pavement with asphalt concrete material (ACM) surfacing is significantly influenced, in addition to transport loading and climatic conditions, by design method and rehabilitation timing. Appropriate overlay thickness calculation and estimation of optimal rehabilitation time are crucial to maximizing life cycle length and, concurrently, reducing road administration costs and road user costs. This article describes a comprehensive method of ACM rehabilitation design. For optimization of life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) based design, mathematical analytical solution in combination with experimental verification of physical, mechanical, and fatigue characteristics is utilized. Pavement performance, that is, functions mathematically describing pavement’s degradation characteristics of operational capability, is represented by longitudinal and transverse unevenness; these are used to describe relations between traffic loading and pavement’s bearing capacity on 1 : 1 scale. Optimizing of rehabilitation plan is carried out by making a cost benefit analysis (CBA) for several rehabilitation scenarios in which different rehabilitation timing produces different capital cost requirements and social benefits. Rehabilitation scenarios differ in technology, the design of which needs to be mathematically optimized, and timing of rehabilitation execution. This article includes a case study for the sake of illustration of practical results and verification of applicability of used methodology.
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Kim, Soon Ho, Jong Won Kim, Hyun-Chae Chung, Gyoo-Jae Choi y MooYoung Choi. "Behavioral Dynamics of Pedestrians Crossing between Two Moving Vehicles". Applied Sciences 10, n.º 3 (26 de enero de 2020): 859. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app10030859.
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This study examines the human behavioral dynamics of pedestrians crossing a street with vehicular traffic. To this end, an experiment was constructed in which human participants cross a road between two moving vehicles in a virtual reality setting. A mathematical model is developed in which the position is given by a simple function. The model is used to extract information on each crossing by performing root-mean-square deviation (RMSD) minimization of the function from the data. By isolating the parameter adjusted to gap features, we find that the subjects primarily changed the timing of the acceleration to adjust to changing gap conditions, rather than walking speed or duration of acceleration. Moreover, this parameter was also adjusted to the vehicle speed and vehicle type, even when the gap size and timing were not changed. The model is found to provide a description of gap affordance via a simple inequality of the fitting parameters. In addition, the model turns out to predict a constant bearing angle with the crossing point, which is also observed in the data. We thus conclude that our model provides a mathematical tool useful for modeling crossing behaviors and probing existing models. It may also provide insight into the source of traffic accidents.
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Kukharchyk, A. G. "TRANSPORT TASK OF OPTIMIZATION OF COSTS WITH MULTIMODAL TRANSPORTATION". Economic innovations 19, n.º 2(64) (7 de julio de 2017): 157–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.31520/ei.2017.19.2(64).157-163.
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In the article, the questions of cost optimization in solving the transport problem using mathematical models are considered. A group of criteria that have the greatest influence in solving the transport problem is determined. The mathematical model of the transport problem allows us to describe a multitude of situations that arise in multimodal transport. The formulation of the goal is optimization - a task more economical, on the other - knowledge of economic and mathematical methods can more effectively solve this problem. The rationale for choosing an optimization criterion is a procedure that cannot be fully formalized, it must be performed taking into account the performance of transport and the interrelationship between them. The common approach to choosing and justifying an optimization criterion is usually based on the following circumstance: as a criterion, only a measure that can be quantified is chosen. Most often, the justification of one indicator is taken as a criterion (characteristic) of the process, less often - a group of criteria, depending on which one speaks of tasks with one criterion or multicriteria. As can be seen from the above, each criterion of optimality has advantages and disadvantages, which most often result from the measure of the synthetic criterion, the difficulty of preparing information in the form an array of coefficients for unknowns in the target function, the narrower or broader scope of its application. The selection and justification of the optimization criterion are performed taking into account all these circumstances in each particular case. In conclusion, it should be noted that all of these criteria have meaning in such tasks, where the volume of traffic is predetermined.
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Budzyński, Marcin, Kazimierz Jamroz y Wojciech Kustra. "Road safety inspection as a tool for road safety management – the polish experience". Journal of KONBiN 42, n.º 1 (1 de junio de 2017): 43–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/jok-2017-0017.
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Abstract In Poland, road inspections were implemented in June 2014 on all national roads. Previous traffic surveys mainly looked at the technical condition of roads, signs and markings; other safety issues were overlooked. The main problem of the inspections is that the qualitative assessment is subjective which affects the classification of the sources of hazard on the road. The paper presents an analysis of the variability of the qualitative assessments of road defects when they are assessed by different teams of inspectors. On this basis, guidelines were developed for the classification of risks based on the relationship between sources of road hazard and the personal and economic losses involved in road accidents. These relationships are quantified using mathematical models to simulate the effect of hazard variability on the consequences of selected road accident causes on sections of the road network.
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Li, Na y Jian Xin Liu. "A New Computer Simulation of Neck Injury Biomechanics". Key Engineering Materials 467-469 (febrero de 2011): 339–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/kem.467-469.339.
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Head and neck injuries are the most frequent severe injury resulting from traffic accidents. Neck injury mechanisms are difficult to study experimentally due to the variety of impact conditions involved, as well as ethical issues, such as the use of human cadavers and animals. Finite element analysis is a comprehensive computer aided mathematical method through which human head and neck impact tolerance can be investigated. Detailed cervical spine models are necessary to better understand cervical spine response to loading, improve our understanding of injury mechanisms, and specifically for predicting occupant response and injury in auto crash scenarios. The focus of this study was to develop a C1–C2 finite element model with optimized mechanical parameter. The most advanced material data available were then incorporated using appropriate nonlinear constitutive models to provide accurate predictions of response at physiological levels of loading. This optimization method was the first utilized in biomechanics understanding, the C1–C2 model forms the basis for the development of a full cervical spine model. Future studies will focus on tissue-level injury prediction and dynamic response.
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Pečeliūnas, Robertas y Olegas Prentkovskis. "Influence of Shock-Absorber Parameters on Vehicle Vibrations during Braking". Solid State Phenomena 113 (junio de 2006): 235–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/ssp.113.235.
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The main goals of the work are to define consistent patterns of impacts exercised by vibration of the vehicle in emergency braking on the vehicle’s movement mode and on the braking distance and to analyze the formation of oscillation. Besides, it is aimed to extend expert’s opportunities for modeling vehicle movement for investigation of accidents’ circumstances related to vehicle braking with the aid of the developed models. A mathematical model of impact exercised by bumper’s characteristics on the vehicle’s braking process has been designed, enabling the determination of coefficients of longitudinal relative forces of the vehicle’s front and rear axles, which depend on the road’s pavement and its condition. The obtained research results extend the vehicle vibration theory in transitional movement modes, which are used in the design and improvement of vehicle suspensions, as well as in traffic accident’s investigation and improvement of methodology of their expertise calculations.
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Mirbaha, Babak y Fatemeh Mohajeri. "Investigating the Strategies for Reducing Motorcycle Mode Choice in Urban Trips: Case Study of Tehran City". Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2673, n.º 10 (12 de mayo de 2019): 58–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0361198119842109.
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Motorcycles in Iran, especially in metropolises such as Tehran, are used extensively for various reasons such as low maintenance costs, high maneuverability, and the possibility of entering congestion priced zones without paying a toll. Nevertheless, motorcycles are involved in 25% of accidents and produce almost 30% of air and 50% of noise pollution in Tehran. Current research aims to investigate possible scenarios for reducing the use of motorcycles in Tehran’s traffic and transportation master plan strategies. After designing the scenarios, a stated preference method is used for gathering the required data from various groups of motorcycle riders in Tehran. More than 2,000 questionnaires were completed of which 1,766 were deemed acceptable for data entering and further analysis. Increasing the price of motorcycle maintenance and charging motorcycles to enter the congestion priced zone of Tehran (CPZT) were two main scenarios which were considered in this research. Multinomial and nested logit models were applied to analyze the trip choice behavior of motorcycle riders who had participated in the survey. Results indicated that strategies such as increasing motorcycle maintenance costs could be effective in reducing the use of motorcycles. For instance, increasing motorcycle maintenance costs by 4.7 times and imposing a 70,000 IRR toll price to enter the CP zone resulted in a 66% reduction in motorcycle mode choice by motorcycle riders.
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Et. al., Aikumbekov Muslim,. "Determination And Evaluation Of The Minimum Allowable Train Headway Value At The Coordinate Traffic Control Method". Turkish Journal of Computer and Mathematics Education (TURCOMAT) 12, n.º 2 (10 de abril de 2021): 3356–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.17762/turcomat.v12i2.2396.
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In recent years, there has been a steady increase in the volume of traffic. According to experts ' forecasts, the demand for product transportation will continue to increase. Meanwhile, the supply for the capacity of the lines is actually exhausted. Therefore, the most important task of railway transport in the near future will be to increase the carrying capacity and capacity.Increasing the carrying capacity of railway transport can be achieved by: increasing the average speed of trains, building additional tracks, increasing the length and weight of freight trains, reducing inter-train intervals, and organizational measures. To increase the average speed of trains, it is necessary to improve the quality of track maintenance and rolling stock, in addition, certain sections of the track will need to be reconstructed. These measures, including the construction of additional tracks, are long-term and will lead to significant material costs. Increasing the length and weight of freight trains leads to an increase in the number of accidents.The most effective way to increase the carrying capacity is to reduce the inter-train intervals in conjunction with a number of organizational measures.With the coordinate method of interval control, the programs and algorithms obtained on the basis of mathematical models must guarantee the safety of trains with minimal intervals.This fact confirms the need to conduct a set of studies in the field of methodology for ensuring safety and organization of train traffic by clarifying existing and developing new mathematical models of train movement in relation to the specifics of the coordinate method of interval regulation.
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Burkhalter, Marcel y Bryan T. Adey. "Modelling the Complex Relationship between Interventions, Interventions Costs and the Service Provided When Evaluating Intervention Programs on Railway Infrastructure Networks". Infrastructures 5, n.º 12 (10 de diciembre de 2020): 113. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/infrastructures5120113.
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Determining the interventions, e.g., maintenance, renewal, improvement and extension, to be included in an infrastructure program requires the consideration of the asset, intervention, traffic, and network characteristics. This, in turn, requires the development of an appropriate system model enabling the construction of straightforward optimisation models. Although there are already a considerable number of such system models in the literature, improved modelling of the complex relationships between interventions, intervention costs and the service provided by the infrastructure network is possible—especially in the trade-off between the accuracy of considering the complex relationships and the simplicity of the mathematical formulation. This paper explains how to build system models for railway infrastructure networks that capture the complex relationships in a system model that can then be used to construct mixed integer linear optimisation models. The proposed type of system model includes how both intervention costs and impacts on service vary as a function of the type, time and location of the interventions included in intervention programs. The system models of this type consist of a graph that is used to model the relationship between the interventions and intervention costs on the asset level, and the relationship between the interventions and the service provided on the network level. The algorithm uses systematic intervention classification and a hierarchical network state structure to build the system model. For illustration purposes, a system model for a railway network consisting of five track segments, seven switches, a bridge, a tunnel and the power supply system is developed using the algorithm.
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Zilioniene, Daiva, Donatas Cygas y Kastytis Dundulis. "Solutions of Gravel Road Renovation Based on Certain Local Conditions in Lithuania". Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1819, n.º 1 (enero de 2003): 267–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/1819b-34.
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The Lithuanian state road network consists of more than 21,000 km of roads, and gravel roads dominate (43.3%). While the 1998–2000 Paving of Gravel Roads Program was being implemented, there were a few issues in estimating investments that could determine the implementation alternatives of the rehabilitation project. Total costs of renovated gravel roads depended on the climate and geological and hydrological conditions of a location as well as traffic and gravel road characteristics. Roads, like engineering buildings, have to be of sufficient strength and durability, and they should correspond to traffic volume. The results of tests showed diversity of pavements and the characteristics of renovated gravel roads. Gravel roads vary by road width, pavement structure, pavement materials, and traffic. In analyzing traffic on gravel roads, the roads were classified into four groups according to traffic volume. Frequently, the strength of subgrade soils determines the structure of renovated gravel roads. The authors carried out tests on road subgrades under different geomorphologic and geological conditions, estimating the structure, physical conditions, and mechanical properties of these subgrades. According to the test results the strength of existing gravel roads depends on the strength of the subgrade, the thickness of the gravel road, and the quality of the gravel. The equivalent deformation modulus of the gravel roads is described by a binomial. In selecting structures for reconstruction of gravel roads, mathematical models are suggested.
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Kadirov, A., A. Kadirova y R. Abdeev. "STRUCTURIZATION AND MODELLING OF TECHNICAL DEVICES OF HAZARDOUS PRODUCTION FACILITIES". Technical science and innovation 2020, n.º 1 (31 de marzo de 2020): 11–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.51346/tstu-01.20.1-77-0046.
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Every year, the problem of industrial safety is becoming increasingly relevant. The effective industrial safety management system (ISMS) organization becomes especially important for nuclear energy, chemical, petrochemical, oil and gas, mining, metallurgical industries, coal mines and other industries, including enterprises with hazardous production facilities (HPF). Any violation of operating modes, unaccounted technological and operational defects can lead to serious consequences and accidents, accompanied by significant material costs and technological disasters. An important place among the problems of industrial safety is the problem of trouble-free operation of technical devices (units, machines and mechanisms, technical systems and complexes, technological equipment, instruments and apparatus) of hazardous production facilities. However, existing approaches to solving this problem have limited application. The article proposes an effective solving method of the problem based on the use of graph models. The advantage of such modelling is the simplicity, clarity and ease of mathematical algorithmization of the studied production processes and technical systems.
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Lord, Dominique y Bhagwant N. Persaud. "Accident Prediction Models With and Without Trend: Application of the Generalized Estimating Equations Procedure". Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1717, n.º 1 (enero de 2000): 102–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/1717-13.
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Accident prediction models (APMs) are useful tools for estimating the expected number of accidents on entities such as intersections and road sections. These estimates typically are used in the identification of sites for possible safety treatment and in the evaluation of such treatments. An APM is, in essence, a mathematical equation that expresses the average accident frequency of a site as a function of traffic flow and other site characteristics. The reliability of an APM estimate is enhanced if the APM is based on data for as many years as possible, especially if data for those same years are used in the safety analysis of a site. With many years of data, however, it is necessary to account for the year-to-year variation, or trend, in accident counts because of the influence of factors that change every year. To capture this variation, the count for each year is treated as a separate observation. Unfortunately, the disaggregation of the data in this manner creates a temporal correlation that presents difficulties for traditional model calibration procedures. An application is presented of a generalized estimating equations (GEE) procedure to develop an APM that incorporates trend in accident data. Data for the application pertain to a sample of four-legged signalized intersections in Toronto, Canada, for the years 1990 through 1995. The GEE model incorporating the time trend is shown to be superior to models that do not accommodate trend and/or the temporal correlation in accident data.
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Li, Wenjun, Lidong Tan y Ciyun Lin. "Modeling driver behavior in the dilemma zone based on stochastic model predictive control". PLOS ONE 16, n.º 2 (24 de febrero de 2021): e0247453. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247453.
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Driver behavior is considered one of the most important factors in the genesis of dilemma zones and the safety of driver-vehicle-environment systems. An accurate driver behavior model can improve the traffic signal control efficiency and decrease traffic accidents in signalized intersections. This paper uses a mathematical modeling method to study driver behavior in a dilemma zone based on stochastic model predictive control (SMPC), along with considering the dynamic characteristics of human cognition and execution, aiming to provide a feasible solution for modeling driver behavior more accurately and potentially improving the understanding of driver-vehicle-environment systems in dilemma zones. This paper explores the modeling framework of driver behavior, including the perception module, decision-making module, and operation module. The perception module is proposed to stimulate the ability to perceive uncertainty and select attention in the dilemma zone. An SMPC-based driver control modeling method is proposed to stimulate decision-making behavior in the dilemma zone. The operation module is proposed to stimulate the execution ability of the driver. Finally, CarSim, the well-known vehicle dynamics analysis software package, is used to verify the proposed models of this paper. The simulation results show that the SMPC-based driver behavior model can effectively and accurately reflect the vehicle motion and dynamics under driving in the dilemma zone.
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Varotto, Silvia F., Haneen Farah, Tomer Toledo, Bart van Arem y Serge P. Hoogendoorn. "Resuming Manual Control or Not?: Modeling Choices of Control Transitions in Full-Range Adaptive Cruise Control". Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2622, n.º 1 (enero de 2017): 38–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2622-04.
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Automated vehicles and driving assistance systems such as adaptive cruise control (ACC) are expected to reduce traffic congestion, accidents, and levels of emissions. Field operational tests have found that drivers may prefer to deactivate ACC in dense traffic flow conditions and before changing lanes. Despite the potential effects of these control transitions on traffic flow efficiency and safety, most mathematical models evaluating the impact of ACC do not adequately represent that process. This research aimed to identify the main factors influencing drivers’ choice to resume manual control. A mixed logit model that predicted the choice to deactivate the system or overrule it by pressing the gas pedal was estimated. The data set was collected in an on-road experiment in which 23 participants drove a research vehicle equipped with full-range ACC on a 35.5-km freeway in Munich, Germany, during peak hours. The results reveal that drivers were more likely to deactivate the ACC and resume manual control when approaching a slower leader, when expecting vehicles cutting in, when driving above the ACC target speed, and before exiting the freeway. Drivers were more likely to overrule the ACC system by pressing the gas pedal a few seconds after the system had been activated and when the vehicle decelerated. Everything else being equal, some drivers had higher probabilities to resume manual control. This study concludes that a novel conceptual framework linking ACC system settings, driver behavior characteristics, driver characteristics, and environmental factors is needed to model driver behavior in control transitions between ACC and manual driving.
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Zissis, Dimitris, Emel Aktas y Michael Bourlakis. "Collaboration in urban distribution of online grocery orders". International Journal of Logistics Management 29, n.º 4 (12 de noviembre de 2018): 1196–214. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijlm-11-2017-0303.
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Purpose Population growth, urbanisation and the increased use of online shopping are some of the key challenges affecting the traditional logistics model. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the distribution of grocery products ordered online and the subsequent home delivery and click and collect services offered by online retailers to fulfil these orders. These services are unsustainable due to increased operational costs, carbon emissions, traffic and noise. The main objective of the research is to propose sustainable logistics models to reduce economic, environmental and social costs whilst maintaining service levels. Design/methodology/approach The authors have a mixed methodology based on simulation and mathematical modelling to evaluate the proposed shared logistics model using: primary data from a major UK retailer, secondary data from online retailers and primary data from a consumer survey on preferences for receiving groceries purchased online. Integration of these three data sets serves as input to vehicle routing models that reveal the benefits from collaboration by solving individual distribution problems of two retailers first, followed by the joint distribution problem under single decision maker assumption. Findings The benefits from collaboration could be more than 10 per cent in the distance travelled and 16 per cent in the time required to deliver the orders when two online grocery retailers collaborate in distribution activities. Originality/value The collaborative model developed for the online grocery market incentivises retailers to switch from current unsustainable logistics models to the proposed collaborative models.
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Shemelova, O. V., E. V. Yakovleva, T. G. Makuseva, I. I. Eremina y O. N. Makusev. "Solving optimization problems when designing power supply circuits". E3S Web of Conferences 124 (2019): 04011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/201912404011.
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One of the quickly developing trends in the optimization of electric power grids is system development of operation and optimization of branch circuits which are based on linear programming problems. One of its categories is traffic problem. The paper discusses the formulation of various types of transport optimization problems used in the design of the most efficient power supply systems in the real sector of economy. The construction of arithmetic models of problems is carried out. Their optimality criterion is cost minimization for the design of electrical network diagrams consisting of power lines connecting sources and consumers. Examples of designing optimization power layout in mathematical problems considering the transmission capacity of power lines is given. The paper also touches upon a mathematical problem considering possible transit of capacities. The task is to build a mathematical model and solve problems that ensure minimization of process losses and losses of power when designing electrical networks. The results of solving problems are presented in the form of power supply circuits corresponding to the most optimal linking of source and consumer nodes. The work is of a scientific and practical significance as it considers the problem of optimizing economic costs when designing electric power network schemes. Moreover it is based on a qualitatively different level of use of the traffic problem algorithm. The algorithm for solving the minimization problem obtained in this paper allows developing the necessary computing operations as well as quickly obtaining the results of solving the cost optimization problem in the designed electric power network.
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Garmani, Hamid, Driss Ait Omar, Mohamed El Amrani, Mohamed Baslam y Mostafa Jourhmane. "The Effect of Caching on CP and ISP Policies in Information-Centric Networks". Mobile Information Systems 2020 (30 de octubre de 2020): 1–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/8895271.
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Internet traffic volume is increasing, and this causes scalability issues in content delivery. Information-centric network has been introduced to support this increase in Internet traffic through caching. While collaborative caching in information-centric network is a crucial feature to improve network performance and reduce delivery costs in content distribution, the current pricing strategies on the Internet are not incentive compatible with information-centric network interconnection. In this paper, we focus on the economic incentive interactions in caching deployment between several types of information-centric network providers (content provider and Internet service provider). In particular, we develop game-theoretic models to study the interaction between providers in an information-centric network model where the providers are motivated to cache and share content. We use a generalized Zipf distribution to model content popularity. We formulate the interactions between the Internet service providers and between the content providers as a noncooperative game. We use a Stackelberg game model to capture the interactions between the content provider and Internet service providers. Through mathematical analysis, we prove the existence and uniqueness of the Nash equilibrium under some conditions. An iterative and distributed algorithm based on best response dynamics is proposed to achieve the equilibrium point. The numerical simulations illustrate that our proposed game models result in a win-win solution.
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Hashimoto, Kohjiro, Tetsuyasu Yamada, Takeshi Tsuchiya, Kae Doki, Yuki Funabora y Shinji Doki. "Detection of contributing object to driving operations based on hidden Markov model". International Journal of Advanced Robotic Systems 16, n.º 5 (1 de septiembre de 2019): 172988141987679. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1729881419876794.
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With increase in the number of elderly people in the Japanese society, traffic accidents caused by elderly driver is considered problematic. The primary factor of the traffic accidents is a reduction in their driving cognitive performance. Therefore, a system that supports the cognitive performance of drivers can greatly contribute in preventing accidents. Recently, the development of devices for visually providing information, such as smart glasses or head up display, is in progress. These devices can provide more effective supporting information for cognitive performance. In this article, we focus on the selection problem of information to be presented for drivers to realize the cognitive support system. It has been reported that the presentation of excessive information to a driver reduces the judgment ability of the driver and makes the information less trustworthy. Thus, indiscriminate presentation of information in the vision of the driver is not an effective cognitive support. Therefore, a mechanism for determining the information to be presented to the driver based on the current driving situation is required. In this study, the object that contributes to execution of avoidance driving operation is regarded as the object that drivers must recognize and present for drivers. This object is called as contributing object. In this article, we propose a method that selects contributing objects among the appeared objects on the current driving scene. The proposed method expresses the relation between the time series change of an appeared object and avoidance operation of the driver by a mathematical model. This model can predict execution timing of avoidance driving operation and estimate contributing object based on the prediction result of driving operation. This model named as contributing model consisted of multi-hidden Markov models. Hidden Markov model is time series probabilistic model with high readability. This is because that model parameters express the probabilistic distribution and its statistics. Therefore, the characteristics of contributing model are that it enables the designer to understand the basis for the output decision. In this article, we evaluated detection accuracy of contributing object based on the proposed method, and readability of contributing model through several experiments. According to the results of these experiments, high detection accuracy of contributing object was confirmed. Moreover, it was confirmed that the basis of detected contributing object judgment can be understood from contributing model.
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Noori Hekmat, Somayeh, Reza Dehnavieh, Saeed Norouzi, Ebrahim Bameh y Atousa Poursheikhali. "Is There Any Relationship between Mental Health and Driving Behavior of Taxi Drivers in Kerman?" Global Journal of Health Science 9, n.º 2 (12 de septiembre de 2016): 294. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/gjhs.v9n2p294.
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<p>Traffic accidents are the main reason of disability and the second reason of mortality in Iran. Therefore finding out the effective factors is vital. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between mental health and taxi drivers’ behavior in Kerman. This is a cross-sectional descriptive research in which Manchester driving behavior questionnaire (MDBQ) and “general health questionnaire (GHQ)” were used. The questionnaires were distributed between 186 taxi drivers during February and March 2015. Our study was conducted in the province of Kerman in the east south of Iran. We used descriptive methods as well as t-tests, chi-square tests, and logit models for data analysis. The data analysis showed that the driving behavior of Kermanian taxi drivers is good (0.481±4.13) and the mental health situation of them is partly good (0.662±3.61). The Pearson’s correlation test showed overall driving behavior score is correlated positively with mental health score (r=0.83, P=0.000). Also there were positive correlations between all driving behavior dimensions and mental health dimensions at a level of significance of 0.005. The result of Chi-Square Test showed that there the younger drivers and who had less driving experience had higher mental health score. Single drivers and who had less education, which had faced with financial loss in their previous accidents, which had lose their driving license for a while, higher driving behavior score compared to the others (P<0.05). By some improvement actions in driver’s mental health, we can effect on their behavior. And by proper driving behaviors, we can avoid from some mortalities, disabilities and heavy costs on society.</p>
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Gençer, Hüseyin y M. Hulusi Demir. "An Overview of Empty Container Repositioning Studies and Research Opportunities". Business and Management Horizons 7, n.º 1 (16 de abril de 2019): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/bmh.v7i1.14670.
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The imbalances in world trade also affect container traffic and lead to large differences in import and export rates of many locations. As a consequence of this, the surplus containers are repositioned to locations where they are required, which causes high costs. Many studies in the literature have addressed this issue from different aspects. This study examines the studies and trends in empty container repositioning (ECR) practices and reveals the missing research areas in the literature. It discusses the mathematical models developed in the literature and addresses real-life applications of the liner carriers. The study also emphasizes how the opportunities in technological development can be used in ECR practices and provides suggestions for research topics that can be studied in the light of current trends in container shipping. It exhibits the actors involved in ECR operations and discusses the strategies applied in liner shipping. The main purpose of the study is to put forward research and real-life application opportunities in the field of ECR.
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Mohabbati-Kalejahi, Nasrin y Alexander Vinel. "Robust Hazardous Materials Closed-Loop Supply Chain Network Design with Emergency Response Teams Location". Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2675, n.º 6 (12 de febrero de 2021): 306–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0361198121992071.
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Hazardous materials (hazmat) storage and transportation pose threats to people’s safety and the environment, which creates a need for governments and local authorities to regulate such shipments. This paper proposes a novel mathematical model for what is termed the hazmat closed-loop supply chain network design problem. The model, which can be viewed as a way to combine several directions previously considered in the literature, includes two echelons in the forward direction (production and distribution centers), three echelons in the backward direction (collection, recovery, and disposal centers), and emergency response team positioning. The two objectives of minimizing the strategic, tactical, and operational costs as well as the risk exposure on road networks are considered in this model. Since the forward flow of hazmat is directly related to the reverse flow, and since hazmat accidents can occur at all stages of the lifecycle (storage, shipment, loading, and unloading, etc.), it is argued that such a unified framework is essential. A robust framework is also presented to hedge the optimization model in case of demand and return uncertainty. The performance of both models is evaluated based on a standard dataset from Albany, NY. Considering the trade-offs between cost and risk, the results demonstrate the design of efficient hazmat closed-loop supply chain networks where the risk exposure can be reduced significantly by employing the proposed models.
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Venediktov, G. L. y V. M. Kochetkov. "Comprehensive optimization of passenger trains operation based on an automated system for managing the profitability of passenger traffic". VNIIZHT Scientific Journal 79, n.º 6 (27 de febrero de 2021): 343–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.21780/2223-9731-2020-79-6-343-350.
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The article is devoted to solving the problem of optimizing the tariff policy, which is relevant for the passenger complex, with the most rational use of the rolling stock. Principles of economic and mathematical modeling are presented in order to determine the optimal number of cars in passenger trains and prices for travel in a single calculation process called complex optimization. Developed models make it possible to form optimal train schemes in accordance with the predicted demand, balancing supply and demand for transportation, which, in turn, radically increases its economic efficiency. Simultaneously with finding the optimal schemes by the method of complex optimization, such fares are determined at which the balance of supply and demand is achieved with the maximum possible economic effect. The article discusses the analytical models of passenger demand, the principles of implementation of the complex optimization procedure, the problems of forecasting passenger demand and the features of calculating the forecast of demand for the example of train No. 17/18 “Karelia” on the Petrozavodsk—Moscow route, and also offers a solution to the problem of determining the optimal prices and train schemes. On the example of real data of the operation of this train, the effectiveness of the automated system for managing the profitability of passenger traffic, created on the basis of complex optimization algorithms, was evaluated. It is shown that the developed analytical models of passenger demand allow solving optimization problems that increase the efficiency of automated control systems for the economic indicators of the transportation process, and the multi-model forecasting system provides satisfactory accuracy with a high level of forecast detail. Due to the fact that the level of expenses for train journeys radically affects the result of optimization of the transportation process with variable train schemes, the adopted optimization criterion takes into account both income and transportation costs. The results of calculations are presented showing that the complex optimization procedure for the “Karelia” train could give a significant additional financial result.
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Bondarenko, E. V., D. A. Dryuchin y S. V. Bulatov. "EVALUATION OF THE FEASIBILITY OF ORGANIZING INCOMING QUALITY CONTROL OF SPARE PARTS IN A MOTOR TRANSPORT ENTERPRISE". Intelligence. Innovations. Investment, n.º 2 (2021): 71–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.25198/2077-7175-2021-2-71.
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The efficiency of vehicle operation largely depends on the quality of the spare parts used in the maintenance and repair of vehicles. The significance of the factor under consideration is determined by the complex influence on the economic indicators of vehicle operation and on traffic safety indicators. One of the measures aimed at improving the efficiency of operation is the organization of input quality control of spare parts. The costs of conducting and technological complexity of the input control vary significantly for different controlled objects, the effect of its implementation is ambiguous, which determines the relevance of the task of evaluating the effectiveness and expediency of its organization. Based on the urgency of the problem, the aim of the study is to improve the efficiency of the operation of motor vehicles by determining the optimal parameters of the input quality control system for spare parts. The hypothesis is put forward that the introduction of quality control of spare parts in the production cycle of motor transport and service enterprises will increase the efficiency of vehicle operation. To achieve this goal, a mathematical model for evaluating the effectiveness of input quality control of spare parts has been developed. Based on the parameters of the developed model, the target function of the study is de-termined, and restrictions due to the operating conditions of vehicles are established. Based on the results of the analysis of the assessment of the significance of factors that determine the efficiency of transport activities, it is proposed to use the value of total costs, including the likely damage from missing a defective part, unit, or unit, as the main criterion for the effectiveness of input quality control of spare parts . On the basis of the created mathematical model, a methodology for evaluating the feasibility of organizing input quality control of spare parts used in the maintenance and repair of vehicles is developed To confirm the proposed hypothesis, the adequacy of the developed model was checked. One of the largest passenger motor transport enterprises of the city of Orenburg — CJSC «Avtokolonna 1825» was chosen as the base for the study. As a model unit, the gimbal transmission of buses of the KaVZ family is considered. It is established that the direct costs of organizing the input control of this node are compensated by the savings due to the increased reliability of vehicles. But, based on the fact that this reduces the likelihood of road accidents caused by the failure of the cardan transmission, conclusions are drawn about the feasibility of organizing input control.
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Gong, Intaek, Kyungho Lee, Jaewon Kim, Yunhong Min y KwangSup Shin. "Optimizing Vehicle Routing for Simultaneous Delivery and Pick-Up Considering Reusable Transporting Containers: Case of Convenience Stores". Applied Sciences 10, n.º 12 (17 de junio de 2020): 4162. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app10124162.
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Previous studies have proposed various frameworks and algorithms to optimize routes to reduce total transportation cost, which accounts for over 29.4% of overall logistics costs. However, it is very hard to find cases in which mathematical models or algorithms are applied to practical business environment cases which require reusable packaging, especially daily operating logistics services like convenience store support systems. Most previous studies have considered developing an optimal algorithm which can solve the mathematical problem within a practical amount of time while satisfying all constraints, such as the capacity of delivery and pick-up, and hard or soft time windows. For daily delivery and pick-up services, like those supporting several convenience stores, it is required to consider the unit transporting the container, as well as the demand, capacity of trucks, travel distance, and traffic congestion. In particular, reusable transport containers and trays should be regarded as important assets of logistics centers. However, if the mathematical model focuses on only satisfying constraints related to delivery and not considering the cost of trays, it is often to leave the empty trays on the pick-up points when there is not enough space in the track. In this study, we propose a mathematical model for optimizing delivery and pick-up plans by extending the general vehicle routing problem of simultaneous delivery and pick-up with time windows, while considering left-over cost. With numerical experiments it has been proved that the proposed model may reduce the total delivery cost. Also, it seems possible to apply the proposed approach to the various logistics businesses which require reusable transport containers like shipping containers, refrigerating containers, trays, and pallets.
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Xiao, Junchao, Hao Wu y Xiangxue Li. "Internet of Things Meets Vehicles: Sheltering In-Vehicle Network through Lightweight Machine Learning". Symmetry 11, n.º 11 (8 de noviembre de 2019): 1388. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/sym11111388.
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An internet of vehicles allows intelligent automobiles to interchange messages with other cars, traffic management departments, and data analysis companies about vehicle identification, accident detection, and danger warnings. The implementation of these features requires Internet of Things system support. Smart cars are generally equipped with many (hundreds or even thousands of) sensors and microcomputers so that drivers gain more information about travel. The connection between the in-vehicle network and the Internet can be leveraged by the attackers in a malicious manner and thus increases the number of ways the in-vehicle network can now be targeted. Protecting increasingly intelligent vehicle systems becomes more difficult, especially because a network of many different devices makes the system more vulnerable than ever before. The paper assumes a generic threat model in which attackers can access the controller area network (CAN) bus via common access points (e.g., Bluetooth, OBD-II, Wi-Fi, physical access, and cellular communication, etc). A machine learning based simplified attention (SIMATT)-security control unit (SECCU) symmetry framework is proposed towards a novel and lightweight anomaly detecting mechanism for the in-vehicle network. For this framework, we propose two new models, SECCU and SIMATT, and obtain state-of-the-art anomaly detecting performance when fusing the former to the latter. Regardless of the training phase or the detection phase, we strive to minimize the computational cost and thereby obtain a lightweight anomaly detection method. In particular, the SECCU model has only one layer of 500 computing cells and the SIMATT model has been improved to reduce its computational costs. Through substantial experiment comparisons (with various classical algorithms, such as LSTM, GRU, GIDS, RNN, or their variations), it is demonstrated that the SIMATT-SECCU framework achieves an almost optimal accuracy and recall rate.
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Semchenko, N. "RESEARCH OF THE ECONOMIC FACTORS IMPACT ON THE AUTOMOBILIZATION LEVEL". Municipal economy of cities 6, n.º 159 (27 de noviembre de 2020): 161–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.33042/2522-1809-2020-6-159-161-168.
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Mortality from road accidents continues to rise, amounting to 1.35 million deaths per year. It is emphasized that today injuries as a result of road accidents are the main cause of children death and young people aged 5-29 years and the three main causes of person’s death aged 5 to 44 years. Studies of road safety various aspects in different countries have shown that the world has long and steadily formed a global problem of irregular road accidents. First of all, the inverse dependence of the emergency risk on the material well-being of countries is clearly visible. The risk of death as a result of road accidents in low-income countries is three times higher than in high-income countries. The highest rates are in Africa (26.6 cases per 100,000 people) and the lowest in Europe (9.3 cases per 100,000 people). In addition, in recent years, experts are trying to link the actual accident rate in countries with the life quality of their populations. Quality of life as a concept includes not only the material level but also the satisfaction of spiritual needs, health, life expectancy, environmental conditions, moral and psychological climate, emotional comfort, etc., which ultimately determines the transport culture of the population. In this regard, it is of interest to identify links between the results of rating assessments of the people life quality in different countries and the level of these countries road safety typical. To do this, first of all it is necessary to assess the economic factors impact on the motorization level, which is insufficiently studied. The purpose is to determine the dependences of the economic factors impact, namely gross domestic product per capita and average wages, on the motorization level. The data for the study were taken from official statistical sources. The results were processed by methods of mathematical statistics and regression analysis. According to the results of the experiments, regression models were obtained for European countries; Asia and Oceania; The Middle East; Africa; North, Central America and the Caribbean; South America. The comparison of the simulated values and the initial data showed a high degree of correlation. The originality lies in the fact that the regularities of the economic factors influence on the motorization level are investigated, which makes it possible to obtain predicted values in the future. Improving the efficiency and safety of vehicles on the road network is possible based on the use of the motorization level predicted values in research. The obtained research results can be used to determine the feasibility of introducing certain measures to organize traffic.
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Tufail, Ali, Abdallah Namoun, Adnan Ahmed Abi Sen, Ki-Hyung Kim, Ahmed Alrehaili y Arshad Ali. "Moisture Computing-Based Internet of Vehicles (IoV) Architecture for Smart Cities". Sensors 21, n.º 11 (30 de mayo de 2021): 3785. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s21113785.
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Recently, the concept of combining ‘things’ on the Internet to provide various services has gained tremendous momentum. Such a concept has also impacted the automotive industry, giving rise to the Internet of Vehicles (IoV). IoV enables Internet connectivity and communication between smart vehicles and other devices on the network. Shifting the computing towards the edge of the network reduces communication delays and provides various services instantly. However, both distributed (i.e., edge computing) and central computing (i.e., cloud computing) architectures suffer from several inherent issues, such as high latency, high infrastructure cost, and performance degradation. We propose a novel concept of computation, which we call moisture computing (MC) to be deployed slightly away from the edge of the network but below the cloud infrastructure. The MC-based IoV architecture can be used to assist smart vehicles in collaborating to solve traffic monitoring, road safety, and management issues. Moreover, the MC can be used to dispatch emergency and roadside assistance in case of incidents and accidents. In contrast to the cloud which covers a broader area, the MC provides smart vehicles with critical information with fewer delays. We argue that the MC can help reduce infrastructure costs efficiently since it requires a medium-scale data center with moderate resources to cover a wider area compared to small-scale data centers in edge computing and large-scale data centers in cloud computing. We performed mathematical analyses to demonstrate that the MC reduces network delays and enhances the response time in contrast to the edge and cloud infrastructure. Moreover, we present a simulation-based implementation to evaluate the computational performance of the MC. Our simulation results show that the total processing time (computation delay and communication delay) is optimized, and delays are minimized in the MC as apposed to the traditional approaches.
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Chen, Wan-Hui, Chih-Yung Lin y Ji-Liang Doong. "Effects of Interface Workload of In-Vehicle Information Systems on Driving Safety". Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1937, n.º 1 (enero de 2005): 73–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0361198105193700111.
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Driver distraction and lack of awareness of the driving situation are major causes of accidents in the urban areas in Taiwan; failing to obey traffic signals is the third leading accident cause. Numerous innovative in-vehicle information systems (IVIS) could be used collectively to provide drivers with a variety of information, such as messages from intersection collision warning systems (ICWS) by way of different in-vehicle interfaces. How the different IVIS interfaces influence driver workload and safety is always an important issue. This study investigates the effects of auditory ICWS messages on driver performance while the driver's visual, hearing, or mental processing attention resources (or all three) are engaged by secondary tasks. This type of engagement or distraction commonly occurs when a driver uses IVIS. The secondary tasks used to distract drivers were created by different types of mathematical questions presented with different types of display devices (e.g., voice from a speaker or numbers shown on a liquid crystal display screen or head-up display). Mixed linear models were employed to examine the factors influencing driver perception–reaction time with the consideration of repeated measures. Several factors, including several main factors and an interaction, were found to be significant. The most important finding was that the interaction between provision of ICWS information and the display format indicated that an auditory warning message could increase driver perception–reaction time while a driver was distracted by an auditory task. In addition, it was found that driver distraction due to different mental processing tasks had a significant impact on driver perception–reaction time.