Tesis sobre el tema "Rainfall extreme"
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HELLIES, MATTEO. "Extreme rainfall regime characterization in Sardinia using daily rainfall data". Doctoral thesis, Università degli Studi di Cagliari, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/11584/266863.
Texto completoNguyen, Tan Danh. "Regional estimation of extreme rainfall events". Thesis, McGill University, 2003. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=84300.
Texto completoFor gaged sites, two methods were developed for estimating the annual extreme (AE) rainfalls based on the simple scaling behaviour of the first three non-central moments (NCMs) of the AE rainfall processes and using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution as the parent distribution. The first estimation method was called one-moment (OM) method since it only relied on the first-order NCM of AE rainfall series in the computation of the rainfall quantiles, while the second method was called three-moment (TM) procedure since it used all first three NCMs of AE rainfalls in the estimation of the quantiles.
For partially-gaged and ungaged sites, a new approach to defining rainfall homogeneous regions has been proposed based on the similarity of rainfall occurrences at different raingage stations. In addition, a Principal Component Analysis technique was used to assess the similarity of raingages and to delineate homogeneous regions.
On the basis of the proposed method for identifying rainfall homogeneous regions, two new methods (PG-1 and PG-2) were developed for estimating annual maximum (AM) rainfalls at partially gauged sites. These methods were also based on the scaling properties of AM rainfall series for different durations.
For ungaged sites, three methods (UG-1, UG-2, and NR) were proposed for estimating AM rainfalls. Method UG-1 was based on the NCMs of AM rainfalls at an ungaged site that were computed by direct interpolation of the corresponding NCM values from the gaged sites within the same homogeneous region. Method UG-2 used the pooled data set from all gaged sites in the homogeneous region for this computation. On the other hand, the NR method estimated the NCMs of AM rainfalls for an ungaged site using the regional regression between the first three NCMs and the number of rainfall occurrence (NR) values that were interpolated from the NR values of the gaged sites.
Finally, to assess the uncertainty of extreme rainfall estimates, two new methods (CI-1 and CI-2) were developed for computing the confidence limits (CLs) based on these estimated values. The proposed methods were based on the bootstrap technique and the scaling properties of the NCMs of extreme rainfall series.
Smith, Elizabeth. "Bayesian modelling of extreme rainfall data". Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 2005. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.424142.
Texto completoZhou, Chen. "On extreme value statistics : maximum likelihood, portfolio optimization, extremal rainfall, Internet auctions = Over extreme waarden statistiek /". Rotterdam : Erasmus Universiteit, 2008. http://opac.nebis.ch/cgi-bin/showAbstract.pl?u20=9789051709124.
Texto completoLangousis, Andreas 1981. "Extreme rainfall intensities and long-term rainfall risk from tropical cyclones". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/47737.
Texto completoIncludes bibliographical references (leaves 78-85).
We develop a methodology for the frequency of extreme rainfall intensities caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) in coastal areas. The mean rainfall field associated with a TC with maximum tangential wind speed Vmax, radius of maximum winds Rmax, and translation speed Vmax, is obtained using a physically-based model, whereas rainfall variability at both large scales (from storm to storm) and small scales (due to rainbands and local convection) is modeled statistically. The statistical component is estimated using precipitation radar (PR) data from the TRMM mission. Taylor's hypothesis is used to convert spatial rainfall intensity fluctuations to temporal fluctuations at a given location A. The combined physical-statistical model gives the distribution of the maximum rainfall intensity at A during a period of duration D for a TC with characteristics (Vmax, Rmax, Vt) that passes at a given distance from A. To illustrate the use of the model for long-term rainfall risk analysis, we formulate a recurrence model for tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico that make landfall between longitudes 85°-95°W. We then use the rainfall and recurrence models to assess the rainfall risk for New Orleans. For return periods of 100 years or more and long averaging durations (D around 12-24 hours), tropical cyclones dominate over other rainfall event types, whereas the reverse is true for shorter return periods or shorter averaging durations.
by Andreas Langousis.
Ph.D.
Guthrie, James Harold. "Extreme rainfall in the greater Calgary area". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2001. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk3/ftp05/MQ64957.pdf.
Texto completoZhou, Chen. "On extreme value statistics maximum likelihood portfolio optimation extremal rainfall Internet auctions /". [Amsterdam] : Rotterdam : Thela Thesis ; Erasmus University [Host], 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1765/14290.
Texto completoKeef, Caroline. "Spatial dependence of river flooding and extreme rainfall". Thesis, Lancaster University, 2006. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.485231.
Texto completoAtyeo, Jonathan. "Models for trends and dependence in extreme rainfall". Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 2006. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.440569.
Texto completoDe, Waal Jan Hofmeyr. "Extreme rainfall distributions : analysing change in the Western Cape". Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/71654.
Texto completoSevere floods in the Western Cape have caused significant damage to hydraulic structures, roads and other infrastructure over the past decade. The current design criteria for these structures and flood return level calculations are based on the concept of stationarity, which assumes that natural systems vary within an envelope of variability that does not change with time. In the context of regional climate change and projected changes in rainfall intensity, the basis for these calculations may become unrealistic with the passage of time. Hydraulic structures and other infrastructure may become more vulnerable to damaging floods because of changing hydroclimatic conditions. This project assesses the changes in extreme rainfall values over time across the Western Cape, South Africa. Using a Generalised Pareto Distribution, this study examines the changes in return levels across the Western Cape region for the periods 1900-1954 and 1955-2010. Of the 137 rainfall stations used in this research, 85 (62%) showed an increase in 50-year return level, 30 (22%) a decrease in 50-year return level and 22 (16%) stations displayed little change in rainfall intensity over time. While there were no clear spatial patterns to the results, they clearly indicate an increase in frequency of intense rainfalls in the latter half of the 20th and early 21st century. The changes in return level are also accompanied by a change in the frequency of high intensity 2-3 day long storms. 115 (84%) of the 137 rainfall stations showed an increase in the frequency of long duration, high intensity storms over the data record. This change generates a shifting risk profile of extreme rainfalls, which, in turn, creates challenges for the design of hydraulic structures and any infrastructure exposed to the resulting damaging floods. It can therefore be argued that it is inappropriate to design structures or manage water resources assuming stationarity of climate and that these principles should be assessed in order to reduce the risk of flood damage owing to increasing storm intensity. KEY WORDS Flood Risk, Stationarity, Disaster Risk, Hazard, Extreme Rainfall, Generalized Pareto Distribution, Climate
Morison, David. "The synoptic drivers of extreme rainfall in South Africa". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/6610.
Texto completoMondonedo, Carlo Arturo S. J. "Enhanced Extreme Rainfall Generation in Temporal Point Process Modeling". 京都大学 (Kyoto University), 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/124492.
Texto completoBoers, Niklas. "Complex network analysis of extreme rainfall in South America". Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/17237.
Texto completoBased on the theory of networks, a general framework is developed to study collective synchronization phenomena of extreme events in complex systems. The method relies on observational time series encoding the variability of the single parts of the system, and is intended to reveal emerging patterns of extreme event synchronization on the macroscopic level. For this purpose, the time series obtained from an interactive system under consideration are identified with network nodes, and the possibly delayed and non-linear interdependence of extreme events in different time series is represented by network links connecting the nodes. In this way, the complex internal synchronization structure of the system becomes accessible in terms of the topology of the network, which can be analyzed by introducing suitable network measures. The methodology is applied to satellite-derived rainfall time series of high spatiotemporal resolution in order to investigate the collective dynamics of extreme rainfall events in South America. The purpose of this application is threefold: First, it is shown how the methodology can be used for climatic analysis by revealing climatological mechanism from the spatial patterns exhibited by different network measures. Second, by introducing the concept of network divergence, sink and source regions of extreme events can be identified, allowing to track their directed synchronization pathways through the network. A simple statistical forecast rule is derived on this basis, predicting substantial fractions of extreme rainfall events in the Central Andes. Third, the methodology and the insights developed in the first two steps are used to evaluate the dynamical representation of extreme events in different datasets, and in particular their dynamical implementation in three state of the art climate models.
Jobin, Erik. "An Urban Rainfall Storm Flood Severity Index". Thèse, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/24124.
Texto completoCung, Annie. "Statistical modeling of extreme rainfall processes in consideration of climate change". Thesis, McGill University, 2007. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=100788.
Texto completoThe objective of the present research is therefore to find the best method for estimating accurately extreme rainfalls for the current time period and future periods in the context of climate change. The analysis of extreme rainfall data from the province of Quebec (Canada) revealed that, according to L-moment ratio diagrams, the data may be well described by the Generalized-Extreme-Value (GEV) distribution. Results also showed that a simple scaling relationship between non-central moments (NCM) and duration can be established and that a scaling method based on NCMs and scaling exponents can be used to generate accurate estimates of extreme rainfalls at Dorval station (Quebec, Canada). Other results demonstrated that the method of NCMs can accurately estimate distribution parameters and can be used to construct accurate Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves.
Furthermore, a regional analysis was performed and homogenous regions of weather stations within Quebec were identified. A method for the estimation of missing data at ungauged sites based on regional NCMs was found to yield good estimates.
In addition, the potential impacts of climate change on extreme rainfalls were assessed. Changes in the distribution of annual maximum (AM) precipitations were evaluated using simulations from two Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario: the Coupled Global Climate Model version 2 (CGCM2A2) of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, and the Hadley Centre's Model version 3 (HadCM3A2). Simulations from these two models were downscaled spatially using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). A bias-correction method to adjust the downscaled AM daily precipitations for Dorval station was tested and results showed that after adjustments, the values fit the observed AM daily precipitations well. The analysis of future AM precipitations revealed that, after adjustments, AM precipitations downscaled from CGCM2A2 increase from current to future periods, while AM precipitations downscaled from HadCM3A2 show a mild decrease from current to future periods, for daily and sub-daily scales.
Collier, Andrew Jason. "Extreme value analysis of non-stationary processes : a study of extreme rainfall under changing climate". Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10443/1219.
Texto completoMiniussi, Arianna. "The metastatistical extreme value distribution for rainfall and flood frequency analysis with external drivers". Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Padova, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/11577/3425928.
Texto completoBougadis, John. "Detection of trends in extreme rainfall in the province of Ontario". Thesis, University of Ottawa (Canada), 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/26452.
Texto completoSingleton, Andrew Thomas. "Cut-off low pressure systems and extreme rainfall over South Africa". Doctoral thesis, University of Cape Town, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/6504.
Texto completoThis thesis is an investigation of cut-off low pressure systems over South Africa. These weather systems have been responsible for many of the flooding disasters that have affected South Africa, particularly the coastal regions, over recent decades. The thesis has two main objectives, namely, to construct a 30-year climatology of cut-off lows over South Africa, and to further understanding of the evolution of the low-level flow that leads to these systems producing extreme quantities of rainfall.
Nassor, Abdallah. "Monsoon surges, tropical cyclones and extreme rainfall events in NW Madagascar". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 1995. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/21516.
Texto completoDok, Atitkagna. "Tertiary Creep Behavior of Landslides Induced by Extreme Rainfall: Mechanism and Application". 京都大学 (Kyoto University), 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/175207.
Texto completoLee, Min Young. "Statistical modeling of extreme rainfall processes in the context of climate change". Thesis, McGill University, 2013. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=114421.
Texto completoLa fréquence des tempêtes extrêmes est un facteur critique dans la conception et gestion d'un grand nombre de projets de ressources en eau. Dans la pratique courante, l'estimation des pluies extrêmes est réalisée en se basant sur l'analyse de fréquence statistique des données de précipitations maximales. L'objectif de cette analyse de la fréquence est donc d'estimer le montant maximal de précipitations qui tombent à un moment donné pendant une durée déterminée, ainsi que la période de retour. Les résultats de l'analyse de la fréquence des précipitations sont souvent résumés par les relations Intensité-Durée-Fréquence (IDF) pour un site donné. Toutefois, les méthodes traditionnelles dans le développement des relations IDF ont deux limites majeures. Tout d'abord, ces méthodes n'ont pas été en mesure de tenir compte des caratéristiques des précipitations extrêmes sur des différentes échelles de temps. Deuxièmement, ces méthodes traditionnelles ne tiennent pas compte des impacts potentiels de la variabilité climatique et du changement climatique. Par conséquent, l'objectif principal de cette présente étude est de proposer une méthode d'estimation des précipitations extrêmes améliorée qui pourrait surmonter ces limitations. La méthode proposée a été basée sur l'échelle d'invariance de distribution GEV et la procédure de réduction d'échelle statistique pour construire des relations IDF dans le contexte du changement climatique. La méthode des moments non-centraux a été utilisée pour l'estimation des trois paramètres de la GEV. Les résultats obtenus par une application numérique des données de Précipitations Maximales Annuelles (PMA) à partir d'un réseau de 14 stations pluviométriques en Corée de Sud ont démontré la faisabilité et la précision de la méthode proposée. La série de PMA observée a particulièrement affiché une propriété d'échelle simple. En outre, les liens entre les variables climatiques globaux donnés par les deux Modèles Climatiques Globaux (MCGs) (un en provenance d'Environnement Canada et l'autre du Centre Hadley du Royaume-Uni) et les caractéristiques des précipitations locaux extrêmes ont été établis avec succès pour prédire les changements qui résultent des relations IDF selon des différents scénarios climatiques - A2, A1B, et B2. Il a été constaté que des relations IDF pour les périodes futures (les années 2020, 2050, et 2080) ont démontré des tendances qui augmentent ou diminuent dépendemment des MCG utilisés et du scénario climatique à l'étude.
Bhatti, Babar Mahmood 1968. "Extreme rainfall, flood scaling and flood policy options in the United States". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/9092.
Texto completoIncludes bibliographical references (leaves 220-227).
River flood and rainfall have been shown to exhibit scale invariance behavior over a range of space and time scales. Although various approaches have been taken to investigate and model the various scaling aspects of rainfall and floods, little theoretical work has been done on the relation between the scaling of rainfall and flood. If available, such a theory would provide frequency estimate for extreme rainfall and floods outside the range of observations and could also be used to estimate floods at ungaged basins. The relationship between rainfall and flood scaling is the main focus of this thesis. We use a two step approach to investigate the relationship between exponent of peak flows and the scaling of rain. First, we use data analysis to verify existing theories that relate the multi scaling behavior of rainfall to the simple scaling behavior of the IDFs. Second, we use a model to relate the scaling of the IDFs to the scaling of peak flows with basin area. We find that, although temporal rainfall shows multiscaling, the IDFs exhibit simple scaling and peak floods show simple or mild multiscaling. We validate our findings by using U.S. peak annual flow data and rainfall from a few New England stations. Extreme floods damage mitigation requires sound and integrated policy making. We review the flood disaster mitigation situation in the U.S., carry out policy analysis and recommend options for a successful and sustainable flood disaster policy in the U.S.
by Babar Mahmood Bhatti.
S.M.
Abba, Omar Sabina. "Capability of CORDEX RCMs in simulating extreme rainfall events over South africa". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/9103.
Texto completoIn South Africa, extreme rainfall events often lead to widespread destruction, damage infrastructure, displace communities, strain water management and even destroy lives. Past studies have shown that reliable predictions of extreme rainfall events from regional climate models (RCMs) could help reduce the impact of these events. The present study evaluates the ability of nine RCMs in simulating extreme rainfall events over South Africa, focusing on the Western Cape (WC) and east coast (EC) areas. This study defines an extreme rainfall over a location as rainfall that is equal to or above the 95th percentile of the rainfall distribution at that location, and defines widespread extreme rainfall events (WEREs) over an area as events during which more than 50 of the grid-points in the area experience extreme rainfall. The 95th percentile threshold values were calculated over 11 years (1998-2008) of South Africa’s daily rainfall data from the nine RCMs (CCLM, REMO, PRECIS, CRCM5, ARPEGE, REGCM3, WRF, RACMO and RCA35), which participated in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and used ERA-Interim (ERAINT) as their boundary forcing. The simulations were compared to two observation datasets (TRMM and GPCP), and to ERAINT rainfall data to understand whether these RCMs improve on the results from ERAINT. A self organizing map (SOM) was used to characterize WEREs identified in all the datasets into archetypal groups, and ERAINT data is used to describe the underlying circulations for each archetypal rainfall pattern. The number of WEREs mapped to each rainfall pattern for each dataset allows us to get an idea of whether certain RCMs are more likely to simulate certain rainfall patterns.
Pinto, Izidine S. de Sousa. "Future changes in extreme rainfall events and circulation patterns over southern Africa". Doctoral thesis, University of Cape Town, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16781.
Texto completoChanges in precipitation extremes are projected by many global climate models as a response to greenhouse gas increases, and such changes will have significant environmental and social impacts. These impacts are a function of exposure and vulnerability. Hence there is critical need to understand the nature of weather and climate extremes. Results from an ensemble of regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project are used to investigate projected changes in extreme precipitation characteristics over southern Africa for the middle (2036-2065) and late century (2069-2098) under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5). Two approaches are followed to identify and analyze extreme precipitation events. First, indices for extreme events, which capture moderate extreme events, are calculated on the basis of model data and are compared with indices from two observational gridded datasets at annual basis. The second approach is based on extreme value theory. Here, the Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV) is fitted to annual maxima precipitation by a L-moments method. The 20-year return values are analyzed for present and future climate conditions. The physical drivers of the projected change are evaluated by examining the models ability to simulate circulation patterns over the regions with the aid of Self-Organizing Maps (SOM).
Ávila, Díaz Álvaro Javier. "Extreme rainfall indices in Brazilian mountain regions and potentially induced hydrological hazards". Universidade Federal de Viçosa, 2016. http://www.locus.ufv.br/handle/123456789/7806.
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O recente aumento do número de inundações e movimentos de massa na região densamente povoada no sudeste do Brasil, o presente estudo analisa as alterações espaciais e temporais na precipitação durante o período de 1978-2014, nas regiões montanhosas dos estados brasileiros do Rio de Janeiro e Santa Catarina. Avaliou-se a presença de tendência nas series sazonais, anuais e do conjunto de índices extremos de precipitação onde foi usado o software Rclimdex. As series são calculados a partir das series precipitação diária. Com base nos resultados observou-se que nas escalas anuais e sazonais se tem um aumento de precipitação, exceto para a temporada de inverno na região montanhosa de Rio de Janeiro. Além disso, foram encontradas de mudanças abrutas em diferentes anos para as séries de tempo analisadas, diferenças espaciais nas tendências em estações individuais e tendências associadas com elevação sugerem que apesar da proximidade destas duas regiões, os impactos do clima não são uniformes em todo o sudeste do Brasil. Os mecanismos de clima responsáveis pelas tendências de precipitação observada são identificados, mas trabalho adicional é necessário para isolar as causas. Por outro lado, o número de desastres naturais de tipo hidrológico como os movimentos de massa/enchentes estão aumentando. Este tipo desastre mostrou correlações positivas significativas com os índices 1-day (máximo de precipitação anual em um dia) e o 5-dias (máximo de precipitação anual em cinco dias consecutivos), sendo assim índices que podem ser úteis indicadores de eventos de risco hidrológicos para estas regiões.
In order to understand the rising number of flash floods and mass movements in the densely populated region of southeastern Brazil, this study analyzes the spatial and temporal changes in precipitation from 1978 to 2014. We focus on the sensitivity of mountainous regions, specifically the Rio de Janeiro (RJMR) and Santa Catarina (SCMR) regions. Daily rainfall observations are aggregated into annual and seasonal indices, and RClimdex is used to evaluate a suite of precipitation and extreme event indices. Results show positive annual and seasonal precipitation trends during all seasons except for the winter season in the RJMR. Diverse change points in their time series, spatial differences in the trends at individual stations, and trends associated with elevation suggest that despite the close proximity of these two regions, climate impacts are not uniform across all of southeastern Brazil. Climate mechanisms responsible for the observed precipitation trends are identified, but additional work is needed to isolate the causes. Statistically significant positive correlations are discovered between mass movements/flash floods events and annual maximum 1–day and 5–day consecutive precipitation, and these indices may be useful indicators of natural hazard events for this region.
Tanaka, Tomohiro. "Extreme flood frequency analysis and flood risk curve development considering spatiotemporal rainfall variability". 京都大学 (Kyoto University), 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/217150.
Texto completoEljabri, Sumaya Saleh M. "New statistical models for extreme values". Thesis, University of Manchester, 2013. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/new-statistical-models-for-extreme-values(12e1ec08-dc66-4f20-a7dc-c89be62421a0).html.
Texto completoEckersten, Sofia. "Updating Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves in Sweden Accounting for the Observed Increase in Rainfall Extremes". Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten och landskapslära, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-283714.
Texto completoÖkad extrem nederbörd har dokumenterats globalt, däribland centrala och norra Europa. Den globala uppvärmningen medför en förhöjd medeltemperatur vilket i sin tur ökar avdunstning av vatten från ytor samt atmosfärens förmåga att hålla vatten. Dessa förändringar tros kunna öka och intensifiera nederbörd. Vid bestämning av dimensionerande nederbördsintensiteter för byggnationsprojekt antas idag att frekvensen och storleken av extrem nederbörd inte kommer att förändras i framtiden (stationäritet), vilket i praktiken innebär ingen förändring i klimatet. Den här studien syftar till att undersöka effekten av en icke-stationärt antagande vid skattning av dimensionerande nederbördsintensitet. Icke-stationära och stationära nerderbördsintensiteter föråterkomsttider mellan 10 och 100år bestämdes utifrån daglig och flerdaglig svensk nederbörds- data. Nederbördintensiteterna bestämdes med extremvärdesanalys i mjukvaran NEVA, där den generella extremvärdesfördelningen anpassades till årlig maximum nederbörd på platser i Sverige som påvisade en ökande trend under de senaste 50åren (15% till 39 % utav 139 stationer, beroende på varaktighet). De dimensionerande nederbördsintensiteterna jämfördes sedan med avseende på varaktighet, återkomsttid och plats. Resultaten indikerade på att ett stationärt antagande riskerar att underskatta dimensionerande nederbördsintensiteter för en viss återkomsttid med upp till 40 %. Detta indikerar att antagandet om icke-stationäritet har större betydelse för olika platser i Sverige, vilket skulle kunna ge viktig information vid bestämning av dimensionerande regnintensiteter.
Mahjabin, Tasnuva. "Long-term Trends in Magnitude and Frequency of Extreme Rainfall Events in Florida". FIU Digital Commons, 2015. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/2257.
Texto completoHaylock, Malcolm. "Interannual variability of mean and extreme rainfall and relationship with large-scale circulation". Thesis, University of East Anglia, 2005. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.427078.
Texto completoEgbebiyi, Temitope Samuel. "Future changes in extreme rainfall events and African easterly waves over West Africa". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/20581.
Texto completoTagliaferri, Lorenza. "Probabilistic Envelope Curves for Extreme Rainfall Events - Curve Inviluppo Probabilistiche per Precipitazioni Estreme". Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2008. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/99/.
Texto completoZambrana, Veroska Dueñas. "Análise numérica da influência de chuvas extremas na estabilidade de taludes". Universidade de São Paulo, 2014. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/3/3145/tde-13082015-111647/.
Texto completoLandslide in southeastern Brazil, are mainly caused by the effect of water from rainfall in infiltration process, in recent years has been increasing the number of natural disasters, while climate change that may exercising influence on the occurrence of extreme rainfall are recorded . Many slopes remain a large part of the year with unsaturated soil condition; however, changes in environmental conditions can cause sudden changes of suction, reducing or even deleting it and generate positive pore pressures. This dissertation presents a study about the influence of rainfall, considered extreme in the infiltration process and this one in the events regarded by their size of catastrophic landslides, which caused environmental, economic and social losses in Brazil. For the study were selected two events of shallow translational landslides relatively typical, considered catastrophic, one of them occurred in the Serra de Cubatão region on January 1985 and the other in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro on January 2011. Both events exhibit characteristics of rainfall and sliding mechanisms themselves, allowing illustrate the different mechanisms active in each case.
Slinskey, Emily Anne. "Assessment of Observational Uncertainty in Extreme Precipitation Over the Continental United States". PDXScholar, 2018. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/4450.
Texto completoAlias, Nor Eliza Binti. "IMPROVING EXTREME PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES CONSIDERING REGIONAL FREQUENCY ANALYSIS". 京都大学 (Kyoto University), 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/192162.
Texto completoYoungkyu, Kim. "Analyzing Uncertainty in Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimation using the Moisture Maximization Method". Doctoral thesis, Kyoto University, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/263625.
Texto completoSuyanto, Adhi. "Estimating the exceedance probabilities of extreme floods using stochastic storm transportation and rainfall - runoff modelling". Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 1994. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.386794.
Texto completoMcGuire, Luke A., Francis K. Rengers, Jason W. Kean, Jeffrey A. Coe, Benjamin B. Mirus, Rex L. Baum y Jonathan W. Godt. "Elucidating the role of vegetation in the initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides: Insights from an extreme rainfall event in the Colorado Front Range". AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/621986.
Texto completoHermelin, Samuel. "Differences in consequences between peak arrivals and movement directions of an extreme rainfall in flood modeling". Thesis, KTH, Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-232680.
Texto completoZhang, Huan Verfasser] y Klaus [Akademischer Betreuer] [Fraedrich. "Extreme rainfall events in simulations, theory and related large-scale dynamic processes / Huan Zhang. Betreuer: Klaus Fraedrich". Hamburg : Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg, 2014. http://d-nb.info/1051435463/34.
Texto completoMedeiros, Vanesca Sartorelli. "Análise estatística de eventos críticos de precipitação relacionados a desastres naturais em diferentes regiões do Brasil". Universidade de São Paulo, 2013. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/3/3147/tde-04102013-113054/.
Texto completoThe paper presents a study of extreme rainfall related to four natural disasters occurring in Brazil: the floods in Itajaí Valley, state of Santa Catarina, in November, 2008; the historic flood in São Luís do Paraitinga, state of São Paulo, in January, 2010; the floods in Mundaú Valley, state of Alagoas, in June, 2010; and the floods and landslides in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro in January, 2011. The catastrophic rains were analyzed through basic statistical data collected from rain gauges located in those regions. In Itajaí Valley, extremely high rainfalls exceeding 250 mm were recorded on November 23 and 24. In Blumenau, it rained 243.5 mm and 250.9 mm on the same days. At the station located in São Luís do Paraitinga, it rained just 64.7 mm on January 1, 2010, when the flood occurred. However, 205.7 mm were observed in one of the stations located in Cunha. In this case, the high volume of rainfall at the headwater of the basin triggered flooding observed in these two cities. In the valleys of Mundaú and Paraíba, it rained nearly 200 mm on June 5, in two of the six stations analyzed. The high volume of rainfall on June 5, combined with the rains from the 17th to the 19th, may have led to the floods in these basins on June 19. The data indicated that, in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro, the flooding and landslides were caused by massive rainfall on January 11 and 12, 2011, which exceeded 270 mm within a period of 24 hours in one of the stations. The rainfall accumulated in the months prior to the events and the high sloping land contributed to soil saturation and subsequent landslides. The rainfall events, sorted through the SPI, resulted in severe or extreme rains in most of the stations. The vulnerability of the regions, which include many homes located in hazardous areas, was also crucial for the disasters to happen. Other major events were previously observed, which indicates that these events are characteristic of the studied regions. It was noted that the analyzed regions are subject to extreme rains with a relatively high frequency, although in some cases these events have demonstrated to be somewhat rare. Therefore, in these areas, region-based measures should be adopted with a view to regulating the use and occupation of the soil and reducing risk of disasters. It is essential to seek adaptation measures of occupation of these areas, considering their hydrological regime.
Wooten, Rebecca Dyanne. "Statistical environmental models : hurricanes, lightning, rainfall, floods, red tide and volcanoes". [Tampa, Fla] : University of South Florida, 2006. http://purl.fcla.edu/usf/dc/et/SFE0001824.
Texto completoBoers, Niklas [Verfasser], Jürgen [Akademischer Betreuer] Kurths, José A. [Akademischer Betreuer] Marengo y Thomas [Akademischer Betreuer] Stemler. "Complex network analysis of extreme rainfall in South America / Niklas Boers. Gutachter: Jürgen Kurths ; José A. Marengo ; Thomas Stemler". Berlin : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät, 2015. http://d-nb.info/1072723573/34.
Texto completoKalantari, Zahra. "Road structures under climate and land use change : Bridging the gap between science and application". Doctoral thesis, KTH, Mark- och vattenteknik, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-140631.
Texto completoQC 20140130
Andrys, Julia. "Regional climate projections for the South West of Western Australia to simulate changes in mean and extreme rainfall and temperature". Thesis, Andrys, Julia (2016) Regional climate projections for the South West of Western Australia to simulate changes in mean and extreme rainfall and temperature. PhD thesis, Murdoch University, 2016. https://researchrepository.murdoch.edu.au/id/eprint/34081/.
Texto completoSousa, Antônio José da Silva. "Eventos extremos de precipitação no leste da Amazônia". Universidade Federal de Alagoas, 2010. http://repositorio.ufal.br/handle/riufal/871.
Texto completoCoordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
O objetivo principal desse estudo foi fazer a caracterização dos eventos extremos de precipitação no leste da Amazônia, a análise das condições oceano-atmosfera em escala global associadas a períodos com intensa ocorrência desses eventos, contribuir para a compreensão da variação temporal dos eventos extremos de chuva, assim como dos fenômenos determinantes para a sua ocorrência e fazer projeções futuras. Para tal, foram utilizados dados de precipitação pluviométrica do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) das estações de Belém, Breves, Altamira, Tucuruí e Marabá e dados de precipitação mensal da Universidade de Delaware (UDEL). Em adição a isso, séries de variáveis meteorológicas disponíveis no ESRL/PSD, em especial, temperatura da superfície do mar, componentes u e v do vento, radiação de onda longa emergente, movimentos verticais atmosféricos, campos de divergência, imagens de satélite e índices climáticos oceânicos e atmosféricos, como a Oscilação Multidecadal do Atlântico, Oscilação Decadal do Pacifico (ODP), Oscilação do Atlântico Norte, Oscilação Sul e Índice Multivariado de ENOS. A metodologia incluiu técnicas estatísticas para análise e comportamento da precipitação, assim como os fenômenos que mais influenciam em seu regime anual, além dos diagnósticos dos eventos. Foi elaborada a distribuição de classes da precipitação diária em Belém (PA), leste da Amazônia, e ficou claro que os altos totais anuais de chuva nessa região foram decorrentes de eventos extremos de precipitação, que contribuíram, em média, com 37% do total anual de chuva. Esses eventos extremos representaram 10% dos totais de dias chuvosos. Houve uma tendência de aumento desses eventos nos últimos 10 anos, o que foi atribuído ao resfriamento da troposfera superior durante esse início da nova fase fria da ODP. Os índices oceânicos e atmosféricos do Oceano Pacifico, mostraram ser uma ferramenta valiosa para a previsão de períodos com ocorrência de eventos extremos. Os ventos Alísios, e principalmente a temperatura da superfície do mar, foram fatores determinantes para o desenvolvimento e ocorrência de eventos extremos no leste da Amazônia, A análise da Transformada de Ondeleta (TO) mostrou a energia e o ciclo anual presente no regime de precipitação dessa região, assim como a influência de fenômenos de alta freqüência como o ENOS no período chuvoso das estações analisadas. As perspectivas climáticas indicaram que a ODP já está em sua nova fase fria. Não se sabe por quanto tempo a ODP irá permanecer em sua nova fase, muito menos as suas causas, porém, se ela perdurar por mais 15 a 20 anos, que é o esperado, certamente haverá um aumento nos eventos extremos de chuva na região Amazônica, devido ao paulatino resfriamento da troposfera superior, resultando em maior desenvolvimento vertical de nuvens tipo cumulonimbo, responsável pelos altos totais pluviométricos.
Luu, Nhat Linh. "The role of human-induced climate change on extreme convective precipitation events in the south of France : a high-resolution model simulation approach". Electronic Thesis or Diss., université Paris-Saclay, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020UPASV018.
Texto completoThe France-Mediterranean area is frequently exposed to heavy precipitation events in the autumn whose daily accumulation can sometimes exceed 300 millimeters. There are a few studies showing the increasing trend in the frequency and intensity of these events (e.g. Vautard et al., 2015; Ribes et al., 2019). However, a formal extreme event attribution that links those changes to human-induced climate change for this area has never been done. This PhD subject aims at quantifying the role of human-induced climate change in altering the statistical properties of extreme convective precipitation event occurring over the France-Mediterranean focusing on the Cevennes mountain range and using a high-resolution model approach including convection-permitting model for the first time. I first analyze the EURO-CORDEX ensemble, which includes different combinations of global climate models and regional climate models. Then I conducted a set of numerical simulations with the WRF model at a convection-permitting resolution. I also compared the simulations with observations and high-resolution re-analyses. The results show that regional models can reproduce extreme convective rainfall events with better agreement with observations by increasing their horizontal resolution, especially to convection-permitting resolution (approx. 3 km). By using these simulations, I show that human-induced climate change consistently makes the 100-year 3-hourly and daily precipitation event at least 2 times more likely under current climate. The results also suggest the need of using multi-model approach to reduce the uncertainties in this type of impact study
Rupi, Alberto Pio. "Analisi meteorologica di eventi con precipitazione intensa nell'Italia Centrale". Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2021.
Buscar texto completoTusher, Md Didarul Alam. "Impact of Extreme Rainfall Event over Swedish Urban Catchments : A study on catchment characterization in the context of Aerial Reduction Factor and storm movement". Thesis, KTH, Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-266469.
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