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Tesis sobre el tema "PUF Statistics"

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Publicado: 11 de enero de 2025

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1

Vinagrero, Gutierrez Sergio. "Méthodologies pour la Conception, la Modélisation et l'Évaluation de la Qualité des Fonctions Physiques Non Clonables (PUFs)". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Université Grenoble Alpes, 2024. http://www.theses.fr/2024GRALT063.

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Les Fonctions Physiques Non-Clonables (PUFs) représentent une alternative prometteuse aux méthodes cryptographiques conventionnelles pour sécuriser les données sensibles dans les circuits modernes en générant des secrets uniques à la volée, en tirant parti de la variabilité inhérente des processus et en éliminant le besoin de stockage des données. Les PUF basées sur les oscillateurs en anneau et la SRAM sont particulièrement étudiées en raison de leur simplicité et de leur prévalence dans les systèmes sur puce (SoC).Lors des simulations paramétriques pour l'évaluation des PUF, plusieurs limitations des logiciels commerciaux de conception électronique assistée par ordinateur (EDA) ont été identifiées. Pour répondre à ces défis, une série d'outils open-source ont été développés, tels que Monaco et NIMPHEL, pour simplifier et accélérer le processus de conception et d'évaluation par des méthodologies de simulation.Pour valider les résultats des simulations, une plateforme open-source, SRAMPlatform, a été créée pour recueillir des données étendues de SRAM et des lectures de capteurs provenant de microcontrôleurs. La plateforme collecte des données de 84 microcontrôleurs STM32, avec des mises à jour hebdomadaires stockées dans une base de données en libre accès, répondant ainsi à la rareté des ensembles de données accessibles sur les PUF. De plus, un ensemble de données complet fourni par Infineon a offert des informations précieuses pour valider les hypothèses de simulation et explorer de nouvelles conceptions de PUF.En outre, des limitations significatives dans les métriques de performance standard des PUF ont été notées et plusieurs solutions et nouvelles métriques alternatives pour une évaluation plus robuste sont proposées. Les données réelles provenant de la plateforme SRAM ont montré des biais extrêmes et des effets de corrélation que les métriques canoniques n'ont pas mis en évidence, soulignant la nécessité de méthodologies de test plus robustes pour identifier avec précision ces effets. Une attention particulière a été portée sur la relation entre l'entropie et la fiabilité des PUF, conduisant au développement d'une méthodologie basée sur la simulation pour établir des seuils de fiabilité basés sur les différences de fréquence. Par la suite, un modèle mathématique holistique prenant en compte la variabilité des processus a été créé pour optimiser les conceptions de RO-PUF, et une nouvelle méthodologie de conception, "Split PUF", a été introduite pour maximiser le rendement en entropie et la fiabilité.La modélisation mathématique des PUFs, un domaine moins exploré, est également investiguée, en proposant des méthodologies statistiques et numériques pour améliorer la compréhension des conceptions de PUF basées sur RO et SRAM. Des méthodes statistiques pour l'extrapolation des métriques sont introduites, réduisant le temps et le coût nécessaires pour évaluer les PUFs. En outre, des jumeaux numériques de PUFs sont proposés, facilitant le test et l'évaluation des algorithmes. Ces modèles offrent une méthodologie robuste et rentable pour évaluer les performances des PUF et aider à leur évaluation de sécurité.Ces avancées améliorent les méthodologies d'évaluation des PUF, en répondant aux limitations des outils et des métriques actuels, et en fournissant de nouveaux cadres et modèles pour la recherche future. Les travaux futurs incluent le développement d'un cadre de test unifié pour toutes les familles de PUF, la validation des modèles statistiques sur un spectre plus large de familles de PUF, le raffinement des modèles de jumeaux numériques, et l'extension du concept de Split PUF à de nouvelles familles de PUF. Ces orientations de recherche visent à accélérer l'adoption mondiale des technologies PUF en améliorant les méthodologies d'évaluation, en répondant aux limitations actuelles des outils et des métriques, et en fournissant de nouveaux cadres et modèles pour la recherche future
Physical Unclonable Functions (PUFs) are a promising alternative to conventional cryptographic methods for securing sensitive data in modern circuits by generating unique secrets on the fly, leveraging inherent process variability and eliminating the need for data storage. Ring Oscillator and SRAM-based PUFs are particularly studied due to their simplicity and prevalence in System-on-Chips (SOCs).During the parametric simulations for PUF evaluation, several limitations in available commercial Electronic Design Automation (EDA) software were identified. To address these challenges, a series of open-source tools were developed, such as Monaco and NIMPHEL, to simplify and accelerate the design process and evaluation through simulation methodologies.To validate the simulation results, an open-source platform, SRAMPlatform, was created to gather extensive SRAM data and sensor readings from microcontrollers. The platform gathers data from 84 STM32 microcontrollers, with weekly updates stored in an open-access database, addressing the scarcity of accessible PUF datasets. Additionally, a comprehensive dataset from Infineon provided valuable insights for validating simulation hypotheses and exploring new PUF designs.Furthermore, significant limitations in standard PUF performance metrics are noted and several mitigations and new alternative metrics for more robust evaluation are proposed. Real-world data from the SRAM platform showed extreme bias and correlation effects that the canonical metrics failed to highlight, underscoring the need for more robust testing methodologies to accurately identify these effects. A major focus was placed on the relationship between entropy and reliability in PUFs, leading to the development of a simulation-based methodology for setting reliability thresholds based on frequency differences. Subsequently, a holistic mathematical model accounting for process variability was created to optimize RO-PUF designs, and a new design methodology, "Split PUF," is introduced to maximize entropy yield and reliability.The mathematical modeling of PUFs, a less-explored area is also investigated, by proposing statistical and numerical methodologies to improve understanding of RO and SRAM-based PUF designs. Statistical methods for metric extrapolation are introduced, reducing the time and cost needed to evaluate PUFs. Furthermore, digital twins of PUFs are proposed, facilitating algorithm testing and evaluation. These models provide a robust and cost-effective methodology for assessing PUF performance and aid in their security assessment.These advancements enhance PUF assessment methodologies, addressing limitations in current tools and metrics, and providing new frameworks and models for future research. Future work includes developing a unified testing framework for all PUF families, validating statistical models across a wider spectrum of PUF families, refining the digital twin models, extending the concept of Split PUFs to new PUF families. These research directions aim to accelerate the worldwide adoption of PUF technologies by enhancing assessment methodologies, addressing current tool and metric limitations, and providing new frameworks and models for future research
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2

ZANOTTI, CHIARA. "DATA DRIVEN APPROACH TO DEAL WITH DIFFERENT HYDROGEOLOGICAL ISSUES". Doctoral thesis, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10281/262342.

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A causa del crescente interesse per la protezione dell’ambiente, sta aumentando la quantità di dati disponibili relativi al monitoraggio ambientale. Man mano che le dimensioni e la complessità dei data set ambientali continuano a crescere, si apre un sempre più ampio ventaglio di possibilità per l'implementazione di data science nel campo delle scienze ambientali. Il focus del presente progetto di dottorato è la risoluzione di diverse problematiche idrogeologiche tramite tecniche data-driven. Più specificatamente, il presente progetto di dottorato mira a identificare e applicare tecniche data-driven adatte a dataset idrogeologici, in base alla struttura del problema e dei dati disponibili e alle condizioni sito specifiche. Nell'ambito del presente progetto di dottorato due problemi idrologici principali sono stati affrontati parallelamente, riguardanti i due aspetti principali della gestione delle risorse sotterranee: a) la qualità delle acque sotterranee e b) la quantità delle acque sotterranee. Ognuno di questi due task è stato affrontato in due fasi successive. La prima fase consiste in un'analisi esplorativa dei dati disponibili, volta a raggiungere una migliore comprensione del sistema, del problema e delle informazioni disponibili. La seconda fase consiste nell’uso di tecniche data - driven per indagare sulla loro efficacia in campo idrogeologico. L'analisi dei dati sulla qualità delle acque sotterranee comporta l'applicazione di tecniche di analisi statistica multivariata, normalmente utilizzate per l’identificazione delle sorgenti, a un dataset relativo ai dati chimici di acque superficiali e sotterranee. Lo scopo di questo task è determinare l’efficacia di queste tecniche nell'identificare i fenomeni che contribuiscono alla concentrazione di diversi composti in un campione. Nell’ambito di questo task sono state implementate Factor Analysis, Cluster Analysis e Positive Matrix Factorization. Per quanto riguarda la quantità delle risorse idriche sotterranee, l'analisi delle serie temporali di livelli piezometrici si basa su modelli in grado di ricostruire dati storici ed elaborare scenari futuri; in questo task sono state utilizzate autocorrelazione, autocorrelazione parziale e impulse response e sono stati sviluppati modelli lineari e non lineari (reti neurali). Questo lavoro ha evidenziato che le tecniche data-driven possono essere considerate uno strumento utile a supporto della gestione delle risorse idriche sotterranee.
Due to the constantly growing interest toward environment protection, the amount of available data concerning environmental monitoring is increasing. As the size and complexity of environmental datasets continue to grow, there is a wide variety of possibility for implementation of data science in the environmental sciences field. The focus of the present PhD work is the resolution different hydrogeological issues by means of data science. More specifically, the present PhD project aims at identifying and applying data-driven techniques suitable for hydrogeological datasets, based on the structure of the problem and the available data and on site-specific conditions. In the scope of this PhD work two main hydrological problems were addressed parallelly, concerning the two main aspects of groundwater resource management: a) groundwater quality and b) groundwater quantity. Each task was tackled in two successive phases. The first phase consisted in an exploratory analysis of the available data, aimed at reaching a better understanding of the system, the problem and the available information. The second phase involved the application of specific data driven techniques to investigate their effectiveness in the hydrogeological field. The groundwater quality data analysis involves the application of multivariate techniques, normally used for the source apportionment, to a dataset concerning chemical data of surface water and groundwater aiming at determining their effectiveness in identifying the phenomena that contribute to the concentration of several compounds in a sample. In this task Factor Analysis, Cluster Analysis and Positive Matrix Factorization were implemented. As regards the groundwater quantity, the analysis of groundwater level time series uses models able to reconstruct historical data and applicable to forecast scenarios; in this task autocorrelation, partial autocorrelation and impulse response were used and linear and nonlinear neural networks models
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3

AvRuskin, Gillian. "Towards A Spatial Model of Rurality". Fogler Library, University of Maine, 2000. http://www.library.umaine.edu/theses/pdf/AvRuskinG2000.pdf.

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4

Gajland, Phillip. "On Statistical Properties of Arbiter Physical Unclonable Functions". Thesis, KTH, Skolan för elektroteknik och datavetenskap (EECS), 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-230672.

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The growing interest in the Internet of Things (IoT) has led to predictions claiming that by 2020 we can expect to be surrounded by 50 billion Internet connected devices. With more entry points to a network, adversaries can potentially use IoT devices as a stepping stone for attacking other devices connected to the network or the network itself. Information security relies on cryptographic primitives that, in turn, depend on secret keys. Furthermore, the issue of Intellectual property (IP) theft in the field of Integrated circuit (IC) design can be tackled with the help of unique device identifiers. Physical unclonable functions (PUFs) provide a tamper-resilient solution for secure key storage and fingerprinting hardware. PUFs use intrinsic manufacturing differences of ICs to assign unique identities to hardware. Arbiter PUFs utilise the differences in delays of identically designed paths, giving rise to an unpredictable response unique to a given IC. This thesis explores the statistical properties of Boolean functions induced by arbiter PUFs. In particular, this empirical study looks into the distribution of induced functions. The data gathered shows that only 3% of all possible 4-variable functions can be induced by a single 4 stage arbiter PUF. Furthermore, some individual functions are more than 5 times more likely than others. Hence, the distribution is non-uniform. We also evaluate alternate PUF designs, improving the coverage vastly, resulting in one particular implementation inducing all 65,536 4-variable functions. We hypothesise the need for n XORed PUFs to induce all 22n possible n-variable Boolean functions.
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5

Schöön, Jonathan. "Pricing Put Options with Multilevel Monte Carlo Simulation". Thesis, Mälardalens högskola, Akademin för utbildning, kultur och kommunikation, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-55404.

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Monte Carlo path simulations are common in mathematical and computational finance as a way of estimating the expected values of a quantity such as a European put option, which is functional to the solution of a stochastic differential equation (SDE). The computational complexity of the standard Monte Carlo (MC) method grows quite large quickly, so in this thesis we focus on the Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method by Giles, which uses multigrid ideas to reduce the computational complexity. We use a Euler-Maruyama time discretisation for the approximation of the SDE and investigate how the convergence rate of the MLMC method improves the computational times and cost in comparison with the standard MC method. We perform a numerical analysis on the computational times and costs in order to achieve the desired accuracy and present our findings on the performance of the MLMC method on a European put option compared to the standard MC method.
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6

Dastrup, Emily Joy. "Estimating the Discrepancy Between Computer Model Data and Field Data: Modeling Techniques for Deterministic and Stochastic Computer Simulators". Diss., CLICK HERE for online access, 2005. http://contentdm.lib.byu.edu/ETD/image/etd986.pdf.

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7

Page, Garritt L. "Using Box-Scores to Determine a Position's Contribution to Winning Basketball Games". Diss., CLICK HERE for online access, 2005. http://contentdm.lib.byu.edu/ETD/image/etd998.pdf.

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8

Dai, Chenglu. "The Profile Likelihood Method in Finding Confidence Intervals and its Comparison with the Bootstrap Percentile Method". Fogler Library, University of Maine, 2008. http://www.library.umaine.edu/theses/pdf/DaiC2008.pdf.

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9

Stromqvist, Vetelino Frida. "FADE STATISTICS FOR A LASERCOM SYSTEM AND THE JOINT PDF OF A GAMMA-GAMMA DISTRIBUTED IRRADIANCE AND ITS TIME DERIVATIVE". Doctoral diss., University of Central Florida, 2006. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETD/id/3091.

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The performance of lasercom systems operating in the atmosphere is reduced by optical turbulence, which causes irradiance fluctuations in the received signal. The result is a randomly fading signal. Fade statistics for lasercom systems are determined from the probability density function (PDF) of the irradiance fluctuations. The expected number of fades per second and their mean fade time require the joint PDF of the fluctuating irradiance and its time derivative. Theoretical integral expressions, as well as closed form, analytical approximations, were developed for the joint PDF of a gamma-gamma distributed irradiance and its time derivative, and the corresponding expression for the expected number of fades per second. The new approximation for the conditional PDF of the time derivative of a gamma-gamma irradiance is a zero mean Gaussian distribution, with a complicated irradiance depending variance. Fade statistics obtained from experimental data were compared to theoretical predictions based on the lognormal and gamma-gamma distributions. A Gaussian beam wave was propagated through the atmosphere along a horizontal path, near ground, in the moderate-to-strong optical turbulence. To characterize the propagation path, a new method that infers atmospheric propagation parameters was developed. Scintillation theory combined with a numerical scheme was used to infer the structure constant, Cn2, the inner scale and the outer scale from the optical measurements. The inferred parameters were used in calculations for the theoretical PDFs. It was found that fade predictions made by the gamma-gamma and lognormal distributions provide an upper and lower bound, respectively, for the probability of fade and the number of fades per second for irradiance data collected in the moderate-to-strong fluctuation regime. Aperture averaging effects on the PDF of the irradiance fluctuations were investigated by comparing the irradiance distributions for the three receiver apertures at two different values of the structure parameter and, hence, different values of the coherence radius. For the moderate-to-strong fluctuation regime, the gamma-gamma distribution provides a good fit to the irradiance fluctuations collected by finite-sized apertures that are significantly smaller than the coherence radius. For apertures larger than or equal to the coherence radius, the irradiance fluctuations appear to be lognormally distributed.
Ph.D.
Department of Mathematics
Sciences
Mathematics
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10

Adriannse, Robert. "Adaptive local statistics filtering". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1997. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/ftp04/mq21530.pdf.

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11

Righter, Emily Stewart. "Graphical and Bayesian Analysis of Unbalanced Patient Management Data". Diss., CLICK HERE for online access, 2007. http://contentdm.lib.byu.edu/ETD/image/etd1710.pdf.

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12

Leung, Bartholomew Ping Kei. "Contributions to industrial statistics". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape10/PQDD_0013/NQ41618.pdf.

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13

Smith, Michael Ross. "Modeling the Performance of a Baseball Player's Offensive Production". Diss., CLICK HERE for online access, 2006. http://contentdm.lib.byu.edu/ETD/image/etd1189.pdf.

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14

Wang, Bingxia. "Estimation of Standardized Mortality Ratio in Epidemiological Studies". Fogler Library, University of Maine, 2002. http://www.library.umaine.edu/theses/pdf/WangB2002.pdf.

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15

Fronczyk, Kassandra M. "Development of Informative Priors in Microarray Studies". Diss., CLICK HERE for online access, 2007. http://contentdm.lib.byu.edu/ETD/image/etd2031.pdf.

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16

Teterukovskiy, Alexei. "Computational statistics with environmental and remote sensing applications /". Umeå : Dept. of Forest Economics, Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, 2003. http://epsilon.slu.se/s277.pdf.

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17

Bauman, G. John. "Computation of Weights for Probabilistic Record Linkage Using the EM Algorithm". Diss., CLICK HERE for online access, 2006. http://contentdm.lib.byu.edu/ETD/image/etd1361.pdf.

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18

Zukowski, Adam. "Attitude and Learning at Upward Bound in the Field of Statistics". Fogler Library, University of Maine, 2008. http://www.library.umaine.edu/theses/pdf/ZukowskiA2008.pdf.

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19

Wunsch, Dirk. "Theoretical and numerical study of collision and coalescence - Statistical modeling approaches in gas-droplet turbulent flows". Thesis, Toulouse, INPT, 2009. http://www.theses.fr/2009INPT031H/document.

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Ce travail consiste en une étude des phénomènes de coalescence dans un nuage de gouttes, par la simulation numérique directe d'un écoulement turbulent gazeux, couplée avec une approche de suivi Lagrangien pour la phase dispersée. La première étape consiste à développer et valider une méthode de détection des collisions pour une phase polydispersée. Elle est ensuite implémentée dans un code couplé de simulation directe et de suivi Lagrangien existant. Des simulations sont menées pour une turbulence homogène isotrope de la phase continue et pour des phases dispersées en équilibre avec le fluide. L'influence de l'inertie des gouttes et de la turbulence sur le taux de coalescence des gouttes est discutée dans un régime de coalescence permanente. Un aperçu est donné de la prise en compte d'autres régimes de collision et de coalescence entre gouttes. Ces simulations sont la base de développement et de validation des approches utilisées dans les calculs à l'échelle industrielle. En particulier, les résultats des simulations sont comparés avec les prédictions d'une approche Lagrangienne de type Monte-Carlo et de l'approche Eulerienne 'Direct Quadrature Method of Moments' (DQMOM). Différents types de fermeture des termes de coalescence sont validés. Les uns sont basés sur l'hypothèse de chaos-moléculaire, les autres sont capables de prendre en compte des corrélations de vitesses des gouttes avant la collision. Il est montré que cette derniere approche prédit beaucoup mieux le taux de coalescence par comparaison avec les résultats des simulations déterministes
Coalescence in a droplet cloud is studied in this work by means of direct numerical simulation of the turbulent gas flow, which is coupled with a Lagrangian tracking of the disperse phase. In a first step, a collision detection algorithm is developed and validated, which can account for a polydisperse phase. This algorithm is then implemented into an existing code for direct numerical simulations coupled with a Lagrangian tracking scheme. Second, simulations are performed for the configuration of homogeneous isotropic turbulence of the fluid phase and a disperse phase in local equilibrium with the fluid. The influence of both droplet inertia and turbulence intensity on the coalescence rate of droplets is discussed in a pure permanent coalescence regime. First results are given, if other droplet collision outcomes than permanent coalescence (i.e. stretching and reflexive separation) are considered. These results show a strong dependence on the droplet inertia via the relative velocity of the colliding droplets at the moment of collision. The performed simulations serve also as reference data base for the development and validation of statistical modeling approaches, which can be used for simulations of industrial problems. In particular, the simulation results are compared to predictions from a Lagrangian Monte-Carlo type approach and the Eulerian 'Direct Quadrature Method of Moments' (DQMOM) approach. Different closures are validated for the coalescence terms in these approaches, which are based either on the assumption of molecular-chaos, or based on a formulation, which allows to account for the correlation of droplet velocities before collision by the fluid turbulence. It is shown that the latter predicts much better the coalescence rates in comparison with results obtained by the performed deterministic simulations
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20

Wøhlk, Olsen Lina. "Essays on Georg Rasch and his contributions to statistics /". Copenhagen, 2003. http://www.gbv.de/dms/zbw/367192314.pdf.

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21

Li, Xue. "Statistical Inference for the Common Mean of Two Independent Log-Normal Distributions and Some Applications in Reliability". Fogler Library, University of Maine, 2004. http://www.library.umaine.edu/theses/pdf/LiX2004a.pdf.

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22

Wu, Meilin. "Statistical estimation of crosstalk for cable bundles". Diss., Rolla, Mo. : Missouri University of Science and Technology, 2008. http://scholarsmine.mst.edu/thesis/pdf/Wu_09007dcc805a99c4.pdf.

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Thesis (M.S.)--Missouri University of Science and Technology, 2008.
Vita. The entire thesis text is included in file. Title from title screen of thesis/dissertation PDF file (viewed January 22, 2009) Includes bibliographical references.
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23

Nugent, Paul Winston. "Wide-angle infrared cloud imaging for cloud cover statistics". Thesis, Montana State University, 2008. http://etd.lib.montana.edu/etd/2008/nugent/NugentP0508.pdf.

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24

Feng, Jingyu. "Modeling Distributions of Test Scores with Mixtures of Beta Distributions". Diss., CLICK HERE for online access, 2005. http://contentdm.lib.byu.edu/ETD/image/etd1068.pdf.

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25

Stephens, Fiona Nancy. "Statistical modelling in health". Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2000. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/37058/1/37058_Stephens_2000.pdf.

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This thesis discusses the theory and application of a variety of statistical methods for addressing specific problems, which arise in medical research. The thesis focuses on three data sets that are used as case studies. These data sets contain information on heart disease surgical outcomes and aortic valve allograft survival. An overview of statistical methods for risk stratification and survival analysis is provided. A new method of outcome specific pruning of classification trees for risk stratification of rare events is discussed, applied and interpreted for one of the case studies. Applications for survival analysis are illustrated with Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses and interpreted for the remaining two case studies. The outputs for this research include technology transfer of statistical skills and methods to a medical research community. Development of a new method for better stratifying rare events, statistical analysis and interpretation of data are directly applicable to cardiac surgery practices at The Prince Charles Hospital.
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26

Quinn, Shannon Leigh. "Measuring and predicting uncertainty in control-relevant statistics". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape8/PQDD_0007/NQ42969.pdf.

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27

Bessant, Ken. "Affective and cognitive components of statistics course performance". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2000. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape3/PQDD_0023/NQ51629.pdf.

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28

Lavigne, Nancy C. "Project-based investigations for producing and critiquing statistics". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape3/PQDD_0031/NQ64598.pdf.

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29

Dolan, David M. "Spatial statistics using quasi-likelihood methods with applications". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape10/PQDD_0029/NQ66201.pdf.

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30

Rusch, Thomas, Ilro Lee, Kurt Hornik, Wolfgang Jank y Achim Zeileis. "Influencing Elections with Statistics: Targeting Voters with Logistic Regression Trees". WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2012. http://epub.wu.ac.at/3458/1/Report117.pdf.

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Political campaigning has become a multi-million dollar business. A substantial proportion of a campaign's budget is spent on voter mobilization, i.e., on identifying and influencing as many people as possible to vote. Based on data, campaigns use statistical tools to provide a basis for deciding who to target. While the data available is usually rich, campaigns have traditionally relied on a rather limited selection of information, often including only previous voting behavior and one or two demographical variables. Statistical procedures that are currently in use include logistic regression or standard classification tree methods like CHAID, but there is a growing interest in employing modern data mining approaches. Along the lines of this development, we propose a modern framework for voter targeting called LORET (for logistic regression trees) that employs trees (with possibly just a single root node) containing logistic regressions (with possibly just an intercept) in every leaf. Thus, they contain logistic regression and classification trees as special cases and allow for a synthesis of both techniques under one umbrella. We explore various flavors of LORET models that (a) compare the effect of using the full set of available variables against using only limited information and (b) investigate their varying effects either as regressors in the logistic model components or as partitioning variables in the tree components. To assess model performance and illustrate targeting, we apply LORET to a data set of 19,634 eligible voters from the 2004 US presidential election. We find that augmenting the standard set of variables (such as age and voting history) together with additional predictor variables (such as the household composition in terms of party affiliation and each individual's rank in the household) clearly improves predictive accuracy. We also find that LORET models based on tree induction outbeat the unpartitioned competitors. Additionally, LORET models using both partitioning variables and regressors in the resulting nodes can improve the efficiency of allocating campaign resources while still providing intelligible models.
Series: Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics
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31

Rusch, Thomas, Ilro Lee, Kurt Hornik, Wolfgang Jank y Achim Zeileis. "Influencing elections with statistics: targeting voters with logistic regression trees". Institute of Mathematical Statistics (IMS), 2013. http://epub.wu.ac.at/3979/1/AOAS648.pdf.

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Resumen
In political campaigning substantial resources are spent on voter mobilization, that is, on identifying and influencing as many people as possible to vote. Campaigns use statistical tools for deciding whom to target ("microtargeting"). In this paper we describe a nonpartisan campaign that aims at increasing overall turnout using the example of the 2004 US presidential election. Based on a real data set of 19,634 eligible voters from Ohio, we introduce a modern statistical framework well suited for carrying out the main tasks of voter targeting in a single sweep: predicting an individual's turnout (or support) likelihood for a particular cause, party or candidate as well as data-driven voter segmentation. Our framework, which we refer to as LORET (for LOgistic REgression Trees), contains standard methods such as logistic regression and classification trees as special cases and allows for a synthesis of both techniques. For our case study, we explore various LORET models with different regressors in the logistic model components and different partitioning variables in the tree components; we analyze them in terms of their predictive accuracy and compare the effect of using the full set of available variables against using only a limited amount of information. We find that augmenting a standard set of variables (such as age and voting history) with additional predictor variables (such as the household composition in terms of party affiliation) clearly improves predictive accuracy. We also find that LORET models based on tree induction beat the unpartitioned models. Furthermore, we illustrate how voter segmentation arises from our framework and discuss the resulting profiles from a targeting point of view. (authors' abstract)
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32

Zhu, Xuejun. "Anomaly Detection Through Statistics-Based Machine Learning For Computer Networks". Diss., Tucson, Arizona : University of Arizona, 2006. http://etd.library.arizona.edu/etd/GetFileServlet?file=file:///data1/pdf/etd/azu%5Fetd%5F1481%5F1%5Fm.pdf&type=application/pdf.

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33

Valois, Marie-France. "Evaluation of the performance of the generalized estimating equations method for the analysis of crossover designs". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1997. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/ftp01/MQ29805.pdf.

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34

D'Angelo, Giuseppina. "A comparative study of approximate tests for cross-over designs using Stein's estimator of the covariance structure of the data". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1997. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/ftp03/MQ37112.pdf.

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35

Park, Jincheol. "Multivariate non-parametric tests of trend in the presence of missing data". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2000. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/ftp03/MQ58493.pdf.

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36

Dumais, Mylène Fanny. "The Craig-Sakamoto Theorem /". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2000. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/ftp03/MQ64348.pdf.

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37

Cámara, Hagen Luis Tomás. "A consensus based Bayesian sample size criterion". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2000. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/ftp03/MQ64329.pdf.

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38

Fiala, Jan. "Statistical Mechanics of Farey Fraction Spin Chain Models". Fogler Library, University of Maine, 2004. http://www.library.umaine.edu/theses/pdf/FialaJ2004.pdf.

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39

Webb, Ben. "Problems related to the Zermelo and Extended Zermelo Model /". Diss., CLICK HERE for online access, 2004. http://contentdm.lib.byu.edu/ETD/image/etd368.pdf.

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40

Vinayagamoorthy, Sritharan. "Order statistics filtering of colour images, a perceptual approach". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1997. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/ftp01/MQ28856.pdf.

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41

Howard, Andrew William. "Small area variations in surgical rates, simulation as an aid in interpretation of findings". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1998. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/tape17/PQDD_0004/MQ36703.pdf.

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42

Yuen, Chi Y. "A stochastic approximation algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation in nonlinear random effects model". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1998. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape11/PQDD_0006/MQ44323.pdf.

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43

Lu, Jinyan. "A comparison of two approaches of adjusting for covariates in nested designs with binary outcomes". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1998. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape11/PQDD_0002/MQ44209.pdf.

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44

Bocci, Cynthia Jacqueline. "Linear regression with spatially correlated data". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape10/PQDD_0012/NQ52271.pdf.

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45

Jensen, Shane Tyler. "The Laguerre-Samuelson inequality with extensions and applications in statistics and matrix theory". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape10/PQDD_0027/MQ50799.pdf.

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46

Rezaei, Sadegh. "The mathematical analysis of crossover designs". Title page, contents and summary only, 1997. http://web4.library.adelaide.edu.au/theses/09PH/09phr4668.pdf.

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47

Verbyla, A. P. "Extensions to profile analysis /". Adelaide, 1986. http://web4.library.adelaide.edu.au/theses/09PH/09phv479.pdf.

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48

Kettermann, Anna. "Estimation of Standardized Mortality Ratio in Geographic Epidemiology". Fogler Library, University of Maine, 2004. http://www.library.umaine.edu/theses/pdf/KettermanA2004.pdf.

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49

Wang, Quanli. "Approximations to the distributions of some robust test statistics". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape10/PQDD_0021/MQ47112.pdf.

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50

Horn, Wayne. "Laplace transforms of order statistics of Erlang random variables". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape10/PQDD_0014/MQ52571.pdf.

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