Bibliografías temáticas / Propagation risk

Literatura académica sobre el tema "Propagation risk"

Autor: Grafiati
Publicado: 27 de julio de 2024
Última modificación: 28 de julio de 2024

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Artículos de revistas sobre el tema "Propagation risk"

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Yan, Huining, Hua Li, Qiubai Sun y Yuxi Jiang. "Propagation and control of congestion risk in scale-free networks based on information entropy". PLOS ONE 19, n.º 3 (22 de marzo de 2024): e0300422. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0300422.

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To study the propagation pattern of congestion risk in the traffic network and enhance risk control capabilities, a model has been developed. This model takes into account the probabilities of five threats (the risk occurrence probability; the risk of loss; the unpredictability of risk; the uncontrollability of risk; the transferability of risk) in the traffic network to define the risk entropy and determine the risk capacity, analyze the mechanism of congestion risk propagation, and explore the impact of risk resistance, the average degree of risk capacity at intersections, and the degree of correlation on congestion risk propagation. Further, a control method model for risk propagation is proposed. Numerical simulation results demonstrate that the risk resistance parameter θ can inhibit the propagation of congestion risk during traffic congestion. The highest efficiency in controlling risk propagation is achieved when θ reaches a threshold value θ*. Furthermore, the average degree of intersection risk capacity α shows a positive correlation with θ* and a negative correlation with control efficiency. However, the degree of association ω has a negative effect on risk propagation control, decreasing the degree of association between nodes aids in risk propagation control.
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Zhang, Xuejun, Shuaizhe Zhao y Hao Mei. "Analysis of Airport Risk Propagation in Chinese Air Transport Network". Journal of Advanced Transportation 2022 (1 de marzo de 2022): 1–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/9958810.

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In recent years, due to the close coupling between airports, airport risk propagation has become a huge challenge. However, it has not been fully understood on the network level. Airport risk can be transferred through other airports owing to connected resources. In this study, we consider two risk factors including airport delay and saturation and propose a risk coupling model based on a clustering algorithm to fit the index and form risk series. To understand the risk propagation mechanism, we build risk propagation networks based on the Granger Causality test, and we apply complex network theory to analyze the evolution of the risk propagation network. We study the regular pattern of risk propagation from perspectives of time and space. Through network analysis, we find four time stages in the risk propagation process and the participation of airports in risk propagation has a positive correlation with airport sizes. In addition, more large airports tend to prevent risk propagation in unoccupied and normal situations, while small airports perform better than large airports in busy situations. Via the conclusion, our work can assist airlines or air traffic managers in controlling the scale of risk propagation before its key time turning point. By identifying the critical airport level and related factors in risk propagation, they can also reduce single airport risk and risk participation through corresponding risk control measures, finally avoiding the large-scale spread of risk and reducing delay or cancellation of more flights.
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Xu, Junke, Jiwei Zhu y Jiancang Xie. "Study on the Evolution of Risk Contagion in Urban River Ecological Management Projects Based on SEIRS". Water 15, n.º 14 (19 de julio de 2023): 2622. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w15142622.

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The risk transmission mechanisms of urban river ecological management engineering projects are examined in this study. Using the Susceptible Exposed Infectious Recovered Susceptible (SEIRS) model for risk transmission, a model of risk propagation delay for urban river ecological management engineering projects on scale-free networks is developed, which takes into account the effects of risk propagation and delay. We conducted a steady-state analysis of the model and obtained the basic reproduction number R. When R > 1, the equilibrium point of risk outbreak is stable, and when R < 1, the equilibrium point of risk disappearance is stable. Numerical simulations of the model were conducted using the MATLAB2022b to reveal the dynamic propagation patterns of risk in urban river ecological management engineering projects. The research results show that the steady-state density of the infected nodes in the network increases with the increase in the effective propagation rate and the propagation delay time; the propagation delay reduces the risk propagation threshold in the network and accelerates the occurrence of the equilibrium state of risk outbreak. There is a correlation between the transmission rate of latent nodes and the transmission rate of infected nodes, and the effective transmission rate of latent nodes has a greater influence on risk propagation. The spread of risk in the network can be effectively controlled and mitigated with targeted immunity for susceptible nodes. This article, based on the theory of complex networks and the mean-field theory, takes into account the propagation delay and spreading of latent nodes. Building a D-SEIRS model for risk propagation broadens the research perspective on urban river ecological management risk propagation.
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He, Zhenggang, Jing-Ni Guo y Jun-Xiang Xu. "Cascade Failure Model in Multimodal Transport Network Risk Propagation". Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2019 (6 de diciembre de 2019): 1–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/3615903.

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The cascade failure theory is introduced into the risk propagation problem of the multimodal transport network in order to study the inherent law of risk propagation and provide theoretical support for the safety management of multimodal transport networks. Firstly, this paper analyses the characteristics of the multimodal transport network and concludes that the risk of the multimodal transport network belongs to failure risk. Secondly, the applicability of cascade failure theory is expounded. Based on cascade failure theory, a risk propagation model of the multimodal transport network is established. Through simulation experiments, the risk propagation of the multimodal transport network is analyzed from the differences of node distribution and node type. The process is analyzed, and the results show that different node distributions and different types of risk source nodes will have an impact on the risk propagation process. The influence of four types of node distributions on the risk propagation effect is in the following order: increasing type > concave-convex type ≈ balanced type > decreasing type. The influence of four types of source nodes on the risk propagation effect is in the following order: transportation type > transporting type > storage type > assistant type.
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Song, Yue, Naiding Yang, Yanlu Zhang y Jingbei Wang. "Suppressing risk propagation in R&D networks: the role of government intervention". Chinese Management Studies 13, n.º 4 (4 de noviembre de 2019): 1019–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/cms-07-2018-0621.

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Purpose This paper aims to explore what factors influence the possibility of internal and external risk propagation in R&D networks and investigate how government intervention moderates the associations between the influencing factors and risk propagation. Design/methodology/approach The authors divided government intervention into directive and facilitative intervention and adopted an empirical research approach in this study. They collected 228 questionnaires from managers and R&D personnel participating in R&D projects in Shanghai and Jiangsu province through e-mail and in person. The data were used to carry out multiple regression analysis to test hypotheses. Findings The results show that the probability and consequence of risks positively affect the possibility of internal and external risk propagation; risk perception and transformation ability negatively influence the possibility of internal and external risk propagation; both directive and facilitative intervention weaken the relationship between the probability of risks and internal risk propagation when they are high than low the association between transformation ability and internal risk propagation is weaker when directive intervention is high than low, whereas facilitative intervention presents the insignificant moderation effect on the relationships between risk perception ability and internal and external risk propagation. Originality/value This study provides a distinctive theoretical perspective for risk conduction theory, government intervention theory and risk management. It also offered managers and the government a clear understanding of how to reduce or avoid risk propagation by leveraging directive and facilitative government intervention.
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Han, Yuanwen, Jiang Shen, Xuwei Zhu, Bang An, Fusheng Liu y Xueying Bao. "Study on the Mechanism of Safety Risk Propagation in Subway Construction Projects". Sustainability 16, n.º 2 (17 de enero de 2024): 796. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su16020796.

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Under the development trend of complexity and systematization of metro construction, there is an increasing number of risk factors potentially affecting construction safety, which has led to frequent accidents in metro construction projects, and the road to high-quality and sustainable development of metro construction is full of challenges. One of the essential reasons is that the propagation mechanism of safety risk factors in metro construction under hidden and delayed effects is not yet clear. This paper combines the theory of complex network and propagation dynamics and constructs a subway construction safety risk propagation model based on considering the hidden and delayed characteristics of construction safety risk propagation, which reveals the dynamic propagation law of subway construction safety risk and puts forward feasible coping strategies. The findings evince that the delay time T significantly affects the propagation behavior of risk and the achievement of the equilibrium state in the network. The transmissibility of the risk factor within the hidden state holds a pivotal sway over the entirety of risk propagation, and the latency in transmission significantly expedites the propagation of risk throughout the network. It is recommended that project managers monitor and warn safety state nodes and hidden state nodes to block the spread of risk in the network and control the delay time of risk in the network in time to reduce the probability of risk occurrence. This study significantly promotes the resilient management of safety risks in metro construction.
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Chen, Tingting, Yan Li, Xiongfei Jiang y Lingjie Shao. "Spatiotemporal Patterns of Risk Propagation in Complex Financial Networks". Applied Sciences 13, n.º 2 (14 de enero de 2023): 1129. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app13021129.

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The methods of complex networks have been extensively used to characterize information flow in complex systems, such as risk propagation in complex financial networks. However, network dynamics are ignored in most cases despite systems with similar topological structures exhibiting profoundly different dynamic behaviors. To observe the spatiotemporal patterns of risk propagation in complex financial networks, we combined a dynamic model with empirical networks. Our analysis revealed that hub nodes play a dominant role in risk propagation across the network and respond rapidly, thus exhibiting a degree-driven effect. The influence of key dynamic parameters, i.e., infection rate and recovery rate, was also investigated. Furthermore, the impacts of two typical characteristics of complex financial systems—the existence of community structures and frequent large fluctuations—on the spatiotemporal patterns of risk propagation were explored. About 30% of the total risk propagation flow of each community can be explained by the top 10% nodes. Thus, we can control the risk propagation flow of each community by controlling a few influential nodes in the community and, in turn, control the whole network. In extreme market states, hub nodes become more dominant, indicating better risk control.
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Ernst, Oliver G., Alois Pichler y Björn Sprungk. "Wasserstein Sensitivity of Risk and Uncertainty Propagation". SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification 10, n.º 3 (16 de agosto de 2022): 915–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1137/20m1325459.

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Fuh, Cheng-Der y Chu-Lan Michael Kao. "Credit Risk Propagation in Structural-Form Models". SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics 12, n.º 4 (enero de 2021): 1340–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1137/20m135340x.

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Cui, Bo, Meilong Le y Jinfu Zhu. "Review of the network risk propagation research". Aeronautics and Aerospace Open Access Journal 3, n.º 2 (13 de mayo de 2019): 66–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.15406/aaoaj.2019.03.00082.

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Tesis sobre el tema "Propagation risk"

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Garg, Tushar. "Estimating change propagation risk using TRLs and system architecture". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/110134.

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Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, System Design and Management Program, 2017.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 27-28).
Risk estimation is a key activity for product development and technology integration programs. There are a number of decision support tools that help project managers identify and mitigate risks in a project, however few explicitly consider the effects of architecture on risk. We propose a novel risk estimation framework that includes considerations of the system architecture. By starting with traditional project management literature, we define risk as a combination of likelihood and impact. We use Technology Readiness Levels as our measure for likelihood, and given that change propagates through interfaces, we used metrics that relate to connectivity to estimate impact. To analyze the connectivity, we model systems using networks of nodes and edges and calculate centrality metrics. This framework is applied to an industry example and we visualize the data in different formats to aid in analysis. The insights gained from this analysis are discussed, and we conclude that the risk estimation framework provides estimates that are in line with the experience of engineers at the company.
by Tushar Garg.
S.M. in Engineering and Management
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2

Selda, Konukcu. "Application Of Risk Management Process On Wave Propagation In Aerospace Medium". Master's thesis, METU, 2006. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/3/12607606/index.pdf.

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In this thesis, risk management methods are investigated in order to integrate risk management practices into the Turkish Aerospace industry. The research presents the sequence of risk management processes as identification of risk, analysis of risk, risk planning etc. Risk analysis methods named as Risk Ranking and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) are investigated in order to improve reliability and safety of the systems or processes in the aerospace industry. The main aim of using risk ranking and AHP together is to translate the knowledge in the Turkish Aviation Industry to a tangible form with a quantitative approach and to prepare a basis for probabilistic risk analysis. Instrument Landing System (ILS) has been considered only in order to facilitate a demonstration how risk management can be done in this context. This study investigates and seeks to create awareness for risk management practices within Turkish Aviation industry.
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Ghadge, Abhijeet. "A systems thinking approach for modelling supply chain risk propagation". Thesis, Loughborough University, 2013. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/13561.

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Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) is rapidly becoming a most sought after research area due to the influence of recent supply chain disruptions on global economy. The thesis begins with a systematic literature review of the developments within the broad domain of SCRM over the past decade. Thematic and descriptive analysis supported with modern knowledge management techniques brings forward seven distinctive research gaps for future research in SCRM. Overlapping research findings from an industry perspective, coupled with SCRM research gaps from the systematic literature review has helped to define the research problem for this study. The thesis focuses on a holistic and systematic approach to modelling risks within supply chain and logistics networks. The systems thinking approach followed conceptualises the phenomenon of risk propagation utilising several recent case studies, workshop findings and focus studies. Risk propagation is multidimensional and propagates beyond goods, finance and information resource. It cascades into technology, human resource and socio-ecological dimensions. Three risk propagation zones are identified that build the fundamentals for modelling risk behaviour in terms of cost and delay. The development of a structured framework for SCRM, a holistic supply chain risk model and a quantitative research design for risk assessment are the major contributions of this research. The developed risk assessment platform has the ability to capture the fracture points and cascading impact within a supply chain and logistics network. A reputed aerospace and defence organisation in UK was used to test the experimental modelling set up for its viability and for bridging the gap between theory and practice. The combined statistical and simulation modelling approach provides a new perspective to assessing the complex behavioural performance of risks during multiple interactions within network.
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Kumar, Vikas. "Soft computing approaches to uncertainty propagation in environmental risk mangement". Doctoral thesis, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/8558.

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Real-world problems, especially those that involve natural systems, are complex and composed of many nondeterministic components having non-linear coupling. It turns out that in dealing with such systems, one has to face a high degree of uncertainty and tolerate imprecision. Classical system models based on numerical analysis, crisp logic or binary logic have characteristics of precision and categoricity and classified as hard computing approach. In contrast soft computing approaches like probabilistic reasoning, fuzzy logic, artificial neural nets etc have characteristics of approximation and dispositionality. Although in hard computing, imprecision and uncertainty are undesirable properties, in soft computing the tolerance for imprecision and uncertainty is exploited to achieve tractability, lower cost of computation, effective communication and high Machine Intelligence Quotient (MIQ). Proposed thesis has tried to explore use of different soft computing approaches to handle uncertainty in environmental risk management. The work has been divided into three parts consisting five papers.
In the first part of this thesis different uncertainty propagation methods have been investigated. The first methodology is generalized fuzzy α-cut based on the concept of transformation method. A case study of uncertainty analysis of pollutant transport in the subsurface has been used to show the utility of this approach. This approach shows superiority over conventional methods of uncertainty modelling. A Second method is proposed to manage uncertainty and variability together in risk models. The new hybrid approach combining probabilistic and fuzzy set theory is called Fuzzy Latin Hypercube Sampling (FLHS). An important property of this method is its ability to separate randomness and imprecision to increase the quality of information. A fuzzified statistical summary of the model results gives indices of sensitivity and uncertainty that relate the effects of variability and uncertainty of input variables to model predictions. The feasibility of the method is validated to analyze total variance in the calculation of incremental lifetime risks due to polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/F) for the residents living in the surroundings of a municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) in Basque Country, Spain.
The second part of this thesis deals with the use of artificial intelligence technique for generating environmental indices. The first paper focused on the development of a Hazzard Index (HI) using persistence, bioaccumulation and toxicity properties of a large number of organic and inorganic pollutants. For deriving this index, Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) has been used which provided a hazard ranking for each compound. Subsequently, an Integral Risk Index was developed taking into account the HI and the concentrations of all pollutants in soil samples collected in the target area. Finally, a risk map was elaborated by representing the spatial distribution of the Integral Risk Index with a Geographic Information System (GIS). The second paper is an improvement of the first work. New approach called Neuro-Probabilistic HI was developed by combining SOM and Monte-Carlo analysis. It considers uncertainty associated with contaminants characteristic values. This new index seems to be an adequate tool to be taken into account in risk assessment processes. In both study, the methods have been validated through its implementation in the industrial chemical / petrochemical area of Tarragona.
The third part of this thesis deals with decision-making framework for environmental risk management. In this study, an integrated fuzzy relation analysis (IFRA) model is proposed for risk assessment involving multiple criteria. The fuzzy risk-analysis model is proposed to comprehensively evaluate all risks associated with contaminated systems resulting from more than one toxic chemical. The model is an integrated view on uncertainty techniques based on multi-valued mappings, fuzzy relations and fuzzy analytical hierarchical process. Integration of system simulation and risk analysis using fuzzy approach allowed to incorporate system modelling uncertainty and subjective risk criteria. In this study, it has been shown that a broad integration of fuzzy system simulation and fuzzy risk analysis is possible.
In conclusion, this study has broadly demonstrated the usefulness of soft computing approaches in environmental risk analysis. The proposed methods could significantly advance practice of risk analysis by effectively addressing critical issues of uncertainty propagation problem.
Los problemas del mundo real, especialmente aquellos que implican sistemas naturales, son complejos y se componen de muchos componentes indeterminados, que muestran en muchos casos una relación no lineal. Los modelos convencionales basados en técnicas analíticas que se utilizan actualmente para conocer y predecir el comportamiento de dichos sistemas pueden ser muy complicados e inflexibles cuando se quiere hacer frente a la imprecisión y la complejidad del sistema en un mundo real. El tratamiento de dichos sistemas, supone el enfrentarse a un elevado nivel de incertidumbre así como considerar la imprecisión. Los modelos clásicos basados en análisis numéricos, lógica de valores exactos o binarios, se caracterizan por su precisión y categorización y son clasificados como una aproximación al hard computing. Por el contrario, el soft computing tal como la lógica de razonamiento probabilístico, las redes neuronales artificiales, etc., tienen la característica de aproximación y disponibilidad. Aunque en la hard computing, la imprecisión y la incertidumbre son propiedades no deseadas, en el soft computing la tolerancia en la imprecisión y la incerteza se aprovechan para alcanzar tratabilidad, bajos costes de computación, una comunicación efectiva y un elevado Machine Intelligence Quotient (MIQ). La tesis propuesta intenta explorar el uso de las diferentes aproximaciones en la informática blanda para manipular la incertidumbre en la gestión del riesgo medioambiental. El trabajo se ha dividido en tres secciones que forman parte de cinco artículos.
En la primera parte de esta tesis, se han investigado diferentes métodos de propagación de la incertidumbre. El primer método es el generalizado fuzzy α-cut, el cual está basada en el método de transformación. Para demostrar la utilidad de esta aproximación, se ha utilizado un caso de estudio de análisis de incertidumbre en el transporte de la contaminación en suelo. Esta aproximación muestra una superioridad frente a los métodos convencionales de modelación de la incertidumbre. La segunda metodología propuesta trabaja conjuntamente la variabilidad y la incertidumbre en los modelos de evaluación de riesgo. Para ello, se ha elaborado una nueva aproximación híbrida denominada Fuzzy Latin Hypercube Sampling (FLHS), que combina los conjuntos de la teoría de probabilidad con la teoría de los conjuntos difusos. Una propiedad importante de esta teoría es su capacidad para separarse los aleatoriedad y imprecisión, lo que supone la obtención de una mayor calidad de la información. El resumen estadístico fuzzificado de los resultados del modelo generan índices de sensitividad e incertidumbre que relacionan los efectos de la variabilidad e incertidumbre de los parámetros de modelo con las predicciones de los modelos. La viabilidad del método se llevó a cabo mediante la aplicación de un caso a estudio donde se analizó la varianza total en la cálculo del incremento del riesgo sobre el tiempo de vida de los habitantes que habitan en los alrededores de una incineradora de residuos sólidos urbanos en Tarragona, España, debido a las emisiones de dioxinas y furanos (PCDD/Fs).
La segunda parte de la tesis consistió en la utilización de las técnicas de la inteligencia artificial para la generación de índices medioambientales. En el primer artículo se desarrolló un Índice de Peligrosidad a partir de los valores de persistencia, bioacumulación y toxicidad de un elevado número de contaminantes orgánicos e inorgánicos. Para su elaboración, se utilizaron los Mapas de Auto-Organizativos (SOM), que proporcionaron un ranking de peligrosidad para cada compuesto. A continuación, se elaboró un Índice de Riesgo Integral teniendo en cuenta el Índice de peligrosidad y las concentraciones de cada uno de los contaminantes en las muestras de suelo recogidas en la zona de estudio. Finalmente, se elaboró un mapa de la distribución espacial del Índice de Riesgo Integral mediante la representación en un Sistema de Información Geográfico (SIG). El segundo artículo es un mejoramiento del primer trabajo. En este estudio, se creó un método híbrido de los Mapas Auto-organizativos con los métodos probabilísticos, obteniéndose de esta forma un Índice de Riesgo Integrado. Mediante la combinación de SOM y el análisis de Monte-Carlo se desarrolló una nueva aproximación llamada Índice de Peligrosidad Neuro-Probabilística. Este nuevo índice es una herramienta adecuada para ser utilizada en los procesos de análisis. En ambos artículos, la viabilidad de los métodos han sido validados a través de su aplicación en el área de la industria química y petroquímica de Tarragona (Cataluña, España).
El tercer apartado de esta tesis está enfocado en la elaboración de una estructura metodológica de un sistema de ayuda en la toma de decisiones para la gestión del riesgo medioambiental. En este estudio, se presenta un modelo integrado de análisis de fuzzy (IFRA) para la evaluación del riesgo cuyo resultado depende de múltiples criterios. El modelo es una visión integrada de las técnicas de incertidumbre basadas en diseños de valoraciones múltiples, relaciones fuzzy y procesos analíticos jerárquicos inciertos. La integración de la simulación del sistema y el análisis del riesgo utilizando aproximaciones inciertas permitieron incorporar la incertidumbre procedente del modelo junto con la incertidumbre procedente de la subjetividad de los criterios. En este estudio, se ha demostrado que es posible crear una amplia integración entre la simulación de un sistema incierto y de un análisis de riesgo incierto.
En conclusión, este trabajo demuestra ampliamente la utilidad de aproximación Soft Computing en el análisis de riesgos ambientales. Los métodos propuestos podría avanzar significativamente la práctica de análisis de riesgos de abordar eficazmente el problema de propagación de incertidumbre.
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Fang, Chao. "Modeling and Analysing Propagation Behavior in Complex Risk Network : A Decision Support System for Project Risk Management". Phd thesis, Ecole Centrale Paris, 2011. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01018574.

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Project risk management is a crucial activity in project management. Nowadays, projects are facing a growing complexity and are thus exposed to numerous and interdependent risks. However, existing classical methods have limitations for modeling the real complexity of project risks. For example, some phenomena like chain reactions and loops are not properly taken into account. This Ph.D. thesis aims at analyzing propagation behavior in the project risk network through modelling risks and risk interactions. An integrated framework of decision support system is presented with a series of proposed methods. The construction of the project risk network requires the involvement of the project manager and the team of experts using the Design Structure Matrix (DSM) method. Simulation techniques are used and several network theory-based methods are developed for analyzing and prioritizing project risks, with respect to their role and importance in the risk network in terms of various indicators. The proposed approach serves as a powerful complement to classical project risk analysis. These novel analyses provide project managers with improved insights on risks and risk interactions under complexity and help them to design more effective response actions. Considering resource constraints, a greedy algorithm and a genetic algorithm are developed to optimize the risk response plan and the allocation of budget reserves dedicated to the risk management. Two examples of application, 1) to a real musical staging project in the entertainment industry and 2) to a real urban transportation system implementation project, are presented to illustrate the utility of the proposed decision support system.
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Esperon, Miguez Manuel. "Financial and risk assessment and selection of health monitoring system design options for legacy aircraft". Thesis, Cranfield University, 2013. http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/8062.

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Aircraft operators demand an ever increasing availability of their fleets with constant reduction of their operational costs. With the age of many fleets measured in decades, the options to face these challenges are limited. Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) uses data gathered through sensors in the aircraft to assess the condition of components to detect and isolate faults or even estimate their Remaining Useful Life (RUL). This information can then be used to improve the planning of maintenance operations and even logistics and operational planning, resulting in shorter maintenance stops and lower cost. Retrofitting health monitoring technology onto legacy aircraft has the capability to deliver what operators and maintainers demand, but working on aging platforms presents numerous challenges. This thesis presents a novel methodology to select the combination of diagnostic and prognostic tools for legacy aircraft that best suits the stakeholders’ needs based on economic return and financial risk. The methodology is comprised of different steps in which a series of quantitative analyses are carried out to reach an objective solution. Beginning with the identification of which components could bring higher reduction of maintenance cost and time if monitored, the methodology also provides a method to define the requirements for diagnostic and prognostic tools capable of monitoring these components. It then continues to analyse how combining these tools affects the economic return and financial risk. Each possible combination is analysed to identify which of them should be retrofitted. Whilst computer models of maintenance operations can be used to analyse the effect of retrofitting IVHM technology on a legacy fleet, the number of possible combinations of diagnostic and prognostic tools is too big for this approach to be practicable. Nevertheless, computer models can go beyond the economic analysis performed thus far and simulations are used as part of the methodology to get an insight of other effects or retrofitting the chosen toolset.
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Xuan, Yunqing. "Uncertainty propagation in complex coupled flood risk models using numerical weather prediction and weather radars". Thesis, University of Bristol, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1983/c76c4eb0-9c9e-4ddc-866c-9bbdbfa4ec25.

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The role of flood forecasting is becoming increasingly important as the concept of risk-based approach is accepted in flood risk management. The risk-based approach not only requires efficient and abundant information for decision making in a risk framework. but needs the uncertainty appropriately accounted for and expressed. The rapid development in numerical weather prediction and weather radar technology make it feasible to provide precipitation predictions and observations for flood warning and forecasting that benefit from the extended lead-time. Although the uncertainty issues related to standalone models have been addressed. little attention has been focused on the complex behaviour of coupled modelling systems when the uncertainty-bearing information propagates through the model cascade. The work presented in this thesis focuses on the issue of uncertainty propagation in this complex coupled modelling environment. A prototype system that integrates the high reso- lution numerical weather prediction. weather radar. and distributed hydrological models. was developed to facilitate the study. The uncertainty propagation and interactions were then analysed covering the uncertainty associated with the data. model structures, chaotic dynamics and coupling processes. The ensemble method was concluded to be the choice for the coupled system to produce forecasts able to account for the uncertainty cascaded from the precipitation prediction to the hydrological and hydraulic models. Finally. recommendations are made in relation to the exploration of complex coupled systems for uncertainty propagation in flood risk management.
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LARI, SERENA. "Multi scale heuristic and quantitative multi-risk assessment in the Lombardy region, with uncertainty propagation". Doctoral thesis, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10281/7550.

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In this thesis, some methodologies for multi-risk assessment are presented, that can be applied to regional or local scale. At the local scale, the problem of uncertainty propagation in risk assessment is treated, testing different methodology for calculation. The work is organised in four parts: 1. Multi risk analysis at the regional scale in Lombardy (PRIM project, 2007). The methodology integrates information with different degree of accuracy into an indicator based approach, in order to develop a regional scale multirisk assessment and to identify “hot spot” risk areas for more detailed analysis. Eventually, the sensitivity of weights is investigated, and the effect on risk assessment of different individual attitudes and perception (i.e., expert, social, political, risk aversion). 2. Quantitative multi risk assessment (QRA) at the local scale on the hot spots, for lower Valtellina and the area of Brescia and lower Val Trompia, Val Sabbia, and Valcamonica. The methodology is based on the use of historical data and modelling to assess for each threat the expected number of casualties and the expected economic damage. 3. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for floods, earthquakes and industrial accidents in the area of Brescia (420 km2), with uncertainty propagation analysis. Frequency-damage curves were calculated. Three methods were 6 used and compared to calculate the uncertainty of the expected economic losses: Monte Carlo Simulation, First Order Second Moment approach, and Point Estimate. 4. Realization of a tool based on a system of indicators aimed at assigning a priority for the realization of new mitigation works, at the evaluation of efficacy of existent works, and at the comparison of different alternatives for the same risk scenario. Indicators are referred to the risk scenario, to the most recent and most significant event occurred in the analysed area, to the planning stage of the work, and to the technical characteristics of realization and maintenance of the work itself.
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Akiode, Olukemi Adejoke. "Examination and management of human African Trypanosomiasis propagation using geospatial techniques". Thesis, Abertay University, 2014. https://rke.abertay.ac.uk/en/studentTheses/9419b401-6604-4530-9938-57ab03234e67.

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Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT) is a vector-borne disease transmitted by the bite of the tsetse fly that results in high human morbidity and mortality. The propagation of the disease has been linked to environmental factors, and understanding the vector’s habitat is vital to its control. There is no HAT vaccine, but biological control of the vector has been successful in reducing HAT incidence. However, in recent years the disease has re-emerged and spread. Due to insufficient knowledge of HAT endemic foci, the disease management remains challenging. To achieve effective deployment of control strategies, accurate knowledge of the spatial distribution of the HAT vector is vital. The current study is based in Nigeria, and looks at part of Delta State, and a part of Jigawa State, in which HAT has been identified. The work utilizes remote sensing satellite imaging and fuzzy logic to develop a HAT vector habitat classification scheme, to explore the dynamics of HAT propagation. The goal was to develop a surveillance methodology to identify factors that influence HAT epidemiology. Land cover and ancillary data were integrated to classify HAT vector habitat using geospatial-fuzzy multicriteria analysis. The work highlights the significance of geospatial techniques where epidemiological data are limited, for improving understanding of HAT. This study helped distinguish HAT vector habitat into different zones (breed, feed and rest), which allowed the direction and magnitude of HAT, a n d factors influencing propagation to be determined. This helped identify ‘HAT priority intervention areas’. The study findings suggested propagation of HAT resulted from suitability of water bodies, shrub and less-dense forest for the HAT vector, and continued exposure of human populations to these land cover classes. Overlapping of HAT vector habitat zones within built-up areas was also a cause. The study also found that HAT propagation was multidirectional, and that this may have been influenced by landscape characteristics. This novel approach can also be used in other part of Nigeria as well as adapted to investigate other diseases. In conclusion, the HAT vector habitat classification scheme is a transparent tool for policy makers for identifying vulnerable and at risk areas.
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Aksen, Ernest, Jacek Cukrowski y Manfred M. Fischer. "Propagation of Crises Across Countries: Trade Roots of Contagion Effects". WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2001. http://epub.wu.ac.at/4235/1/WGI_DP_7801.pdf.

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The paper provides an explanation of the mechanisms underlying trade roots of the contagion effects emanating from the recent turmoils. It is argued that under demand uncertainty risk averse behavior of firms provides a basis for international trade. The paper shows by means of a simple two-country model that risk averse firms operating in perfectly competitive markets with uncertainty of demand tend to diversify markets what gives a basis for international trade in identical commodities even between identical countries. It is shown that such trade may be welfare improving despite efficiency losses due to cross-hauling and transportation costs. The analysis reveals that change of the expectations concerning market conditions caused by the turmoil in the neighbor country (i.e., shift in the perception of market conditions) may lead to macroeconomic destabilization (increase in price level and unemployment, worsening of terms of trade, and deterioration of trade balance).
Series: Discussion Papers of the Institute for Economic Geography and GIScience
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Libros sobre el tema "Propagation risk"

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Ben Mahmoud, Mohamed Slim, Nicolas Larrieu y Alain Pirovano. Risk Propagation Assessment for Network Security. Hoboken, NJ, USA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118579947.

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Grigoriu, Mircea. Stochastic Systems: Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation. London: Springer London, 2012.

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Cotaras, Frederick D. Acoustic propagation loss predictions for a site on the Bermuda rise at low and very low frequencies. Dartmouth, N.S: National Defence, Research and Development Branch, 1992.

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Risk Propagation Assessment for Network Security Focus Series. ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons Inc, 2013.

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Pirovano, Alain, Mohamed Slim Ben Mahmoud y Nicolas Larrieu. Risk Propagation Assessment for Network Security: Application to Airport Communication Network Design. Wiley & Sons, Incorporated, John, 2013.

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Pirovano, Aliain, Nicolas Larrieu y Ben Mahmoud. Risk Propagation Assessment for Network Security: Application to Airport Communication Network Design. Wiley & Sons, Incorporated, John, 2013.

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Pirovano, Alain, Mohamed Slim Ben Mahmoud y Nicolas Larrieu. Risk Propagation Assessment for Network Security: Application to Airport Communication Network Design. Wiley & Sons, Incorporated, John, 2013.

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Pirovano, Alain, Mohamed Slim Ben Mahmoud y Nicolas Larrieu. Risk Propagation Assessment for Network Security: Application to Airport Communication Network Design. Wiley & Sons, Incorporated, John, 2013.

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Pirovano, Alain, Mohamed Slim Ben Mahmoud y Nicolas Larrieu. Risk Propagation Assessment for Network Security: Application to Airport Communication Network Design. Wiley & Sons, Incorporated, John, 2013.

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Grigoriu, Mircea. Stochastic Systems: Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation. Springer, 2014.

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Capítulos de libros sobre el tema "Propagation risk"

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Ben Mahmoud, Mohamed Slim, Nicolas Larrieu y Alain Pirovano. "A Quantitative Network Risk Assessment Methodology Based on Risk Propagation". En Risk Propagation Assessment for Network Security, 27–39. Hoboken, NJ, USA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118579947.ch3.

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Ben Mahmoud, Mohamed Slim, Nicolas Larrieu y Alain Pirovano. "Security Risk Management Background". En Risk Propagation Assessment for Network Security, 17–25. Hoboken, NJ, USA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118579947.ch2.

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Moss, Robb Eric S. "Functions of Random Variables: Error Propagation". En Applied Civil Engineering Risk Analysis, 61–88. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22680-0_5.

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Fumagalli, Mattia, Gal Engelberg, Tiago Prince Sales, Ítalo Oliveira, Dan Klein, Pnina Soffer, Riccardo Baratella y Giancarlo Guizzardi. "On the Semantics of Risk Propagation". En Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing, 69–86. Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-33080-3_5.

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Ben Mahmoud, Mohamed Slim, Nicolas Larrieu y Alain Pirovano. "Introduction to Information System Security Risk Management Process". En Risk Propagation Assessment for Network Security, 1–15. Hoboken, NJ, USA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118579947.ch1.

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Ben Mahmoud, Mohamed Slim, Nicolas Larrieu y Alain Pirovano. "The Aeromacs Communication System in the SESAR Project". En Risk Propagation Assessment for Network Security, 42–57. Hoboken, NJ, USA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118579947.ch4.

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Ben Mahmoud, Mohamed Slim, Nicolas Larrieu y Alain Pirovano. "Aeronautical Network Case Study". En Risk Propagation Assessment for Network Security, 59–107. Hoboken, NJ, USA: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118579947.ch5.

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Häring, Ivo. "Hazard Propagation I: Explosions and Blast". En Risk Analysis and Management: Engineering Resilience, 115–35. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-0015-7_6.

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Ma, Mingyuan. "Financial Risk Propagation Model Under Network Technology". En Application of Intelligent Systems in Multi-modal Information Analytics, 92–99. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-05237-8_12.

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Rotaru, Kristian y Mehrdokht Pournader. "Modeling Risk Emergence and Propagation in Buyer-Supplier-Customer Relationships". En Supply Chain Risk Management, 43–63. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-4106-8_3.

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Actas de conferencias sobre el tema "Propagation risk"

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Pacheco, M. y J. F. Vasconcellos. "Probabilistic assessment of leachate propagation in the groundwater by an uncontrolled landfill". En RISK ANALYSIS 2006. Southampton, UK: WIT Press, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.2495/risk060191.

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Persson, K., J. Jarsjö, C. Prieto y G. Destouni. "Propagation of environmental risk from contaminant transport through groundwater and stream networks". En RISK ANALYSIS 2008. Southampton, UK: WIT Press, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.2495/risk080061.

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Buchs, Colette, Jocelyn Minini y Stéphane Commend. "Calibration of Highly Computationally Intensive Propagation Models of Flow-Like Natural Hazards". En Geo-Risk 2023. Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/9780784484975.038.

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Gao, L. y L. M. Zhang. "Numerical Simulation of Post-Fire Debris Flow Hazards Using a Triggering-Propagation Model". En Geo-Risk 2023. Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/9780784484968.008.

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Lmoussaoui, H. y H. Jamouli. "Risk Propagation Modeling of Construction Project". En Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference. Singapore: Research Publishing Services, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8_192-cd.

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Shabnam, Luba, Farzana Haque, Moshiur Bhuiyan y Aneesh Krishna. "Risk Measure Propagation through Organisational Network". En 2014 IEEE 38th International Computer Software and Applications Conference Workshops (COMPSACW). IEEE, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/compsacw.2014.40.

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Wang, Chunsheng, Yifan Wu, Haipeng Si y Lan Duan. "Acoustic emission monitoring of bridge cable wires crack propagation". En IABSE Conference, Seoul 2020: Risk Intelligence of Infrastructures. Zurich, Switzerland: International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering (IABSE), 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.2749/seoul.2020.106.

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<p>This paper introduces a method for monitoring the fatigue crack propagation rate of bridge cable wires using acoustic emission technology. Through the prefabricated damage notch, the comprehensive use of strain gauges and acoustic emission for real-time monitoring of high- strength steel wire specimens in cables，establishing the corresponding relationship between AE count rate and stress intensity factor ΔK. Based on the correlation among crack propagation rate, AE count rate and stress intensity factor range, the relationship between AE count rate and crack propagation rate is derived. The results show that the application of the acoustic emission sensor can intelligently detect the propagation state and rate of fatigue cracks on the cable wire. Acoustic emission count rate can be used to effectively monitor the fatigue crack propagation of cable high- strength steel wire, and then the damage and residual life can be evaluated and predicted.</p>
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Di Curzio, Diego y Giovanna Vessia. "Uncertainty Propagation Assessment in CPTu-Based Lithological Modeling Using Stochastic Co-Simulation". En International Symposium for Geotechnical Safety & Risk. Singapore: Research Publishing Services, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.3850/978-981-18-5182-7_00-04-004.xml.

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Ji, Pengcheng, Li Li y Qingyun Yu. "Risk Propagation Analysis of Complex Manufacturing System Based on Virus Propagation Model". En 2023 China Automation Congress (CAC). IEEE, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/cac59555.2023.10451520.

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Wang, Chang-guang, Shuai Fu, Xu Bai y Li-jing Bai. "Risk Perception in Modeling Malware Propagation in Networks". En 2009 WRI World Congress on Computer Science and Information Engineering. IEEE, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/csie.2009.115.

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Informes sobre el tema "Propagation risk"

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Hohmann, Matthew y Wade Wall. Operational-scale demonstration of propagation protocols and comparative demographic monitoring for reintroducing five southeastern endangered and at-risk plants : final report. Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (U.S.), marzo de 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/26525.

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Weeks, Timothy "Dash". DTPH56-13-X-000013 Modern High-Toughness Steels for Fracture Propagation and Arrest Assessment-Phase II. Chantilly, Virginia: Pipeline Research Council International, Inc. (PRCI), septiembre de 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.55274/r0012037.

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NIST work developed processes to identify the stress/strain/crack velocity conditions for unstable high-rate ductile crack propagation found in a full-scale pipeline burst test and duplicate those conditions in a medium-scale test. With modeling to validate conditions and assumptions used in reducing the scale of the tests. A medium-scale test to elucidate material property data necessary to qualify high-strength high-toughness steels based on the correlation to large-scale tests. Parametric determination of the material properties governing fracture propagation or arrest-ability was developed. This will assist researchers to determine a relevant and effective small-scale test (or tests) that provides enough information for material selection, design, reliability, as well as integrity and risk assessment. Pipe evaluated includes API5L X70 and X80 pipe. The strain was measured by a three-dimensional digital image correlation system. This project takes a phased approach with complementary research in successive phases beginning with a road map to systematically fill gaps in knowledge and understanding of the problem of unstable high-rate ductile running failures in pipelines. This report is structured to highlight the problem statement with respect to the current state of the art understanding, define knowledge gaps and present the plan, and progress toward meeting the objective. The following sections specifically cover the effort to develop and inform a constitutive material model necessary for the structural model of the medium-scale test. The material testing required to inform the constitutive material model is presented. Conclusions of this phase of the project are also presented in addition to the proposed work in Phase III of the project.
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Vecherin, Sergey, Stephen Ketcham, Aaron Meyer, Kyle Dunn, Jacob Desmond y Michael Parker. Short-range near-surface seismic ensemble predictions and uncertainty quantification for layered medium. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), septiembre de 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/45300.

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To make a prediction for seismic signal propagation, one needs to specify physical properties and subsurface ground structure of the site. This information is frequently unknown or estimated with significant uncertainty. This paper describes a methodology for probabilistic seismic ensemble prediction for vertically stratified soils and short ranges with no in situ site characterization. Instead of specifying viscoelastic site properties, the methodology operates with probability distribution functions of these properties taking into account analytical and empirical relationships among viscoelastic variables. This yields ensemble realizations of signal arrivals at specified locations where statistical properties of the signals can be estimated. Such ensemble predictions can be useful for preliminary site characterization, for military applications, and risk analysis for remote or inaccessible locations for which no data can be acquired. Comparison with experiments revealed that measured signals are not always within the predicted ranges of variability. Variance-based global sensitivity analysis has shown that the most significant parameters for signal amplitude predictions in the developed stochastic model are the uncertainty in the shear quality factor and the Poisson ratio above the water table depth.
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Bain, Rachel, Richard Styles y Jared Lopes. Ship-induced waves at Tybee Island, Georgia. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), diciembre de 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/46140.

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Commercial vessels transiting the Savannah entrance channel intermittently generate large wake events at Tybee Island, Georgia, creating a potential hazard for beachgoers. However, not all commercial vessels generate large wakes, and the relationship between vessel dimensions, operating conditions, wake height, and drawdown magnitude is unclear. This study evaluates bathymetric data, high-frequency wave and vessel wake measurements, and broadcast vessel identification over a 4-month period with the goal of providing a quantitative characterization of vessel wake conditions at Tybee Island. Data from 1,386 cargo vessel passages and 202 tanker passages indicate that vessel dimensions (length and beam) are positively correlated with drawdown magnitude and secondary wake height, although large vessels do not consistently generate large wakes. Container ships, which tended to travel faster than tankers, corresponded to the largest wakes in the dataset. A further hypothesis is that tidally modulated energy dissipation may favor smaller vessel wake uprush at low tide and larger uprush at high tide, but this idea cannot be confirmed without additional measurements to quantify nonlinear wave propagation on the beach face. Based on the collected data, the study concludes with four recommendations for reducing risk to beachgoers.
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Hossain, Niamat Ullah Ibne, Raed Jaradat, Seyedmohsen Hosseini, Mohammad Marufuzzaman y Randy Buchanan. A framework for modeling and assessing system resilience using a Bayesian network : a case study of an interdependent electrical infrastructure systems. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), abril de 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/40299.

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This research utilizes Bayesian network to address a range of possible risks to the electrical power system and its interdependent networks (EIN) and offers possible options to mitigate the consequences of a disruption. The interdependent electrical infrastructure system in Washington, D.C. is used as a case study to quantify the resilience using the Bayesian network. Quantification of resilience is further analyzed based on different types of analysis such as forward propagation, backward propagation, sensitivity analysis, and information theory. The general insight drawn from these analyses indicate that reliability, backup power source, and resource restoration are the prime factors contributed towards enhancing the resilience of an interdependent electrical infrastructure system.
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Kanninen, M. F. L51718 Development and Validation of a Ductile Fracture Analysis Model. Chantilly, Virginia: Pipeline Research Council International, Inc. (PRCI), mayo de 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.55274/r0010321.

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In close cooperation with the Centro Sviluppo Materiali (CSM) and SNAM of Italy, with several years of support from the PRCI NG-18 committee, the Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) has developed and validated a "first principles" predictive model for ductile fracture in a gas transmission pipeline. In particular, the coordinated SwRI and CSM projects for the PRC -supplemented by work contributed by SNAM - has established a theoretically valid methodology and an accompanying line pipe material characterization procedure for gas industry use. This progress provides a theoretically sound framework for designing and operating gas transmission pipelines to be without risk of a large-scale ductile fracture event. However, there remained two important aspects of this technology that needed to be addressed before practical use of the methodology could be made by gas transmission companies. First, because the preceding projects concentrated on pipes with natural gas, to cover the full range of gas transmission pipeline service, the approach needed to be extended to include the effects of gases rich in hydrocarbons. Second, as the number of full-scale pipe fracture experiments that were included in the developmental phase of the research were limited, other data for validation of the model needed to be identified and employed. These two aspects of the ductile fracture methodology development process were conducted concurrently, and have now been completed. The progress that has been provided in detail in this report. The work is culminated by a relation through which the methodology can be applied by pipeline engineers to assess the possibility of a ductile fracture propagation. This report describes the development of a predictive model for ductile fracture in a gas transmission pipeline, thus providing a theoretically sound framework for designing and operating gas pipelines to be without risk of a large-scale ductile fracture event. The model represents an improvement on a number of empirical relations used in designing natural gas pipelines in that this model has been generalized to consider a wide-range of hydrocarbon contents and validated through both additional full-scale instrumented tests carried out by Centro Sviluppo Materiali of Italy and computer simulations conducted at Southwest Research Institute. Application of the model in pipeline design is based on determination of the maximum driving force for fracture, as described in the report, and contrasting this value with measured material resistance that provides a basis for assessing the likelihood of ductile fracture occurring. For existing pipelines the procedure can be used to obtain the maximum operating line pressure that will not put the pipeline at risk of ductile fracture.
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Hart, Carl, Gregory Lyons y Michael White. Spherical shock waveform reconstruction by heterodyne interferometry. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), mayo de 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/48471.

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The indirect measurement of shock waveforms by acousto-optic sensing requires a method to reconstruct the field from the projected data. Under the assumption of spherical symmetry, one approach is to reconstruct the field by the Abel inversion integral transform. When the acousto-optic sensing modality measures the change in optical phase difference time derivative, as for a heterodyne Mach–Zehnder interferometer, e.g., a laser Doppler vibrometer, the reconstructed field is the fluctuating refractive index time derivative. A technique is derived that reconstructs the fluctuating index directly by assuming plane wave propagation local to a probe beam. With synthetic data, this approach is compared to the Abel inversion integral transform and then applied to experimental data of laser-induced shockwaves. Time waveforms are reconstructed with greater accuracy except for the tail of the waveform that maps spatially to positions near a virtual origin. Furthermore, direct reconstruction of the fluctuating index field eliminates the required time integration and results in more accurate shock waveform peak values, rise times, and positive phase duration.
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Rahmani, Mehran y Manan Naik. Structural Identification and Damage Detection in Bridges using Wave Method and Uniform Shear Beam Models: A Feasibility Study. Mineta Transportation Institute, febrero de 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.31979/mti.2021.1934.

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This report presents a wave method to be used for the structural identification and damage detection of structural components in bridges, e.g., bridge piers. This method has proven to be promising when applied to real structures and large amplitude responses in buildings (e.g., mid-rise and high-rise buildings). This study is the first application of the method to damaged bridge structures. The bridge identification was performed using wave propagation in a simple uniform shear beam model. The method identifies a wave velocity for the structure by fitting an equivalent uniform shear beam model to the impulse response functions of the recorded earthquake response. The structural damage is detected by measuring changes in the identified velocities from one damaging event to another. The method uses the acceleration response recorded in the structure to detect damage. In this study, the acceleration response from a shake-table four-span bridge tested to failure was used. Pairs of sensors were identified to represent a specific wave passage in the bridge. Wave velocities were identified for several sensor pairs and various shaking intensities are reported; further, actual observed damage in the bridge was compared with the detected reductions in the identified velocities. The results show that the identified shear wave velocities presented a decreasing trend as the shaking intensity was increased, and the average percentage reduction in the velocities was consistent with the overall observed damage in the bridge. However, there was no clear correlation between a specific wave passage and the observed reduction in the velocities. This indicates that the uniform shear beam model was too simple to localize the damage in the bridge. Instead, it provides a proxy for the overall extent of change in the response due to damage.
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