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Wildan y Yayat Karyana. "Evaluasi Kesalahan Proyeksi Penduduk Tahun 2020 untuk Memproyeksikan Penduduk Tahun 2025 Provinsi Jawa Barat". Jurnal Riset Statistika 1, n.º 2 (23 de diciembre de 2021): 92–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.29313/jrs.v1i2.407.
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Abstract. West Java Province is one of the largest provinces in Indonesia. Naturally, the population factor is one of the supports in terms of development. The confusion of a number of population data from various Ministries and Institutions become one of the causes of the non-optimal implementation of government policies. Therefore, this thesis will discuss the calculation of error evaluation population projections carried out using the projection method and projecting from the results of population projections to improve data accuracy which exists. The method used as a benchmark for calculating projections is mathematical method, component method and mixed method. The three methods this results in population projections for year t from the total population aspect, gender and age grouping. After the population projections are obtained, then see how much error the projection value is. In this problem, MALPE and MAPE are in charge of this projection error evaluation technique. There are 3 aspects that become a reference in the calculation of the projected evaluation, namely: other factors are fertility mortality and mobility. Assumption of fertility is measured from the numerical value birth age group (ASFR) and total fertility (TFR). Assumption of mortality what is seen is a table of 24 death levels, while the assumption of mobility or migration is seen from the ASNMR (Age Specific Net Migration Rate) number. Obtained the smallest error value by the MAPE technique is 5.4 in the component method that carried out by BPS and the projection results for West Java Province are 51,338,337 million souls with the component method.
Abstrak. Provinsi Jawa Barat merupakan salah satu provinsi terbesar di Indonesia. Tentunya, dalam faktor penduduk menjadi salah satu penunjang dalam hal pembangunan. Kesimpangsiuran sejumlah data penduduk dari berbagai Kementerian dan Lembaga menjadi salah satu penyebab tidak optimalnya pelaksanaan kebijakan pemerintah. Oleh karena itu, skripsi ini akan dibahas mengenai perhitungan evaluasi kesalahan proyeksi penduduk yang dilakukan menggunakan metode proyeksi serta memproyeksikan dari hasil proyeksi penduduk guna memperbaiki keakuratan data yang ada. Metode yang digunakan sebagai tolak ukur menghitung proyeksi adalah metode matematik, metode komponen dan metode campuran. Ketiga metode tersebut menghasilkan proyeksi penduduk tahun ke t dari aspek total penduduk, jenis kelamin dan pengelompokan umur. Setelah proyeksi penduduk diperoleh, selanjutnya dilihat berapa besar kesalahan nilai proyeksi. Pada permasalahan ini, MALPE dan MAPE yang bertugas dalam teknik evaluasi kesalahan proyeksi ini. Terdapat 3 aspek yang menjadi acuan dalam perhitungan evaluasi proyeksi, antara lain fertilitas, mortalitas dan mobilitas. Asumsi fertalitas diukur dari nilai angka kelahiran kelompok umur (ASFR) dan total fertilitas (TFR). Asumsi mortalitas yang dilihat adalah tabel level kematian 24, sedangkan asumsi mobilitas atau migrasi dilihat dari angka ASNMR (Age Specific Net Migration Rate). Didapatkan nilai kesalahan terkecil oleh teknik MAPE sebesar 5,4 pada metode komponen yang dilakukan BPS dan hasil proyeksi untuk Provinsi Jawa Barat sebanyak 51.338.337 juta jiwa dengan metode komponen.
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Johnson, Todd M. y Peter F. Crossing. "Projecting Global Religious Populations, 2020–50". Journal of Religion and Demography 8, n.º 1-2 (16 de diciembre de 2021): 124–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/2589742x-12347114.
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Abstract This article presents a series of projections for religious communities worldwide from 2020 to 2050. It offers details related to the projection methodology used to generate the estimates and comments on trends and patterns among Christians, Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists, agnostics, and atheists. It concludes with suggestions on how such projections might be improved in the future.
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Finlayson, Gregory S., David Stewart, Robert B. Tate, Leonard MacWilliam y Noralou Roos. "Anticipating Change: How Many Acute Care Hospital Beds Will Manitoba Regions Need in 2020?" Canadian Journal on Aging / La Revue canadienne du vieillissement 24, S1 (2005): 133–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/cja.2005.0045.
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ABSTRACTBeing able to anticipate future needs for health services presents a challenge for health planners. Using existing population projections, two models are presented to estimate the demand for hospital beds in regions of Manitoba in 2020. The first, a current-use projection model, simply projects the average use for a recent three-year period into the future. The second, a 10-year trend analysis, uses Poisson regression to project future demand. The current-use projection suggests a substantial increase in the demand for hospital beds, while the trend analysis projects a decline. The last projections are consistent with ongoing increases in rates of day surgeries and declines in lengths of stay. The current-use projections need to be considered in the context of relatively low occupancy rates in rural hospitals and previous research on appropriateness of stays in acute care hospitals. If measures are taken to ensure more appropriate use of acute care hospital beds in the future, then the current-use projections of bed shortages are not a cause for concern.
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Karyana, Yayat y Nanang Rusliana. "Proyeksi Penduduk Jawa Barat Tahun 2025 – 2035 Menggunakan Metode Campuran dengan Data Dasar Sensus Penduduk 2020". WELFARE Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi 2, n.º 1 (30 de mayo de 2021): 26–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.37058/wlfr.v2i1.2824.
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The purpose of this study is to create projections of the population in West Java Province in the period of 2025-2035. The method used in this research is a mixed method which is a combination of the Mathematical Method and the Component Method. The Mathematical Method is used to make projections of the total population, while the Component Method is used to make projections of the total population and population per age group. Using basic population data from the 2020 Population Census, the projection of the population of West Java in 2025, 2030, and 2035 is 51,117,160 people, 54,127,589 people, and 57,315,311 people, respectively.Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk membuat proyeksi penduduk Jawa Barat tahun 2025-2035. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode campuran yang merupakan gabungan Metode Matematik dan Metode Komponen. Metode Matematik digunakan untuk membuat proyeksi total penduduk, sedangkan Metode Komponen digunakan untuk membuat proyeksi total penduduk dan penduduk per kelompok umur. Dengan menggunakan data dasar jumlah penduduk hasil sensus penduduk 2020, diperoleh proyeksi penduduk Jawa Barat tahun 2025, tahun 2030, dan tahun 2035, berturut-turut adalah 51.117.160 orang, 54.127.589 orang, dan 57.315.311 orang.
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Desviandini, Ricke Aulia y Yayat Karyana. "Proyeksi Penduduk Indonesia sampai Tahun 2060 dengan Data Dasar Sensus Penduduk 2020 dan Asumsi Laju Pertumbuhan Penduduk 1,25%". Bandung Conference Series: Statistics 2, n.º 2 (29 de julio de 2022): 266–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.29313/bcss.v2i2.4009.
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Abstract. Projections of Indonesia's population in 2010 have been made, including by Sucipto and Tukiran (1992), BPS (2002), Nurwindiagiri (2004), Karyana (2004) and BPS, BAPPENAS and UNFPA (2018). However, because the basic population data and/or assumptions used for the projections are different, the results are also different, and when compared with the results of the 2020 Population Census (SP 2020), none of them are the same. In the period 1971-1980 the population growth rate (LPP) reached 3.2% per year, decreased to 1.97% per year in the period 1980-1990 and to 1.5% per year in the period 1990-2000. However, in the period 2000-2010 it did not decrease, but remained at 1.5% per year. BPS has released the 2020 Population Census Portrait that in the 2010-2020 period there is a population growth rate per year, namely LPP = 1.25% with a population of 270.20 million people. In this thesis, a projection of the Indonesian population until 2060 will be made using the basic data from the 2020 Population Census assuming the LPP population growth rate = 1.25% (BPS, 2020) and using the Mixed Method. The results of the projection of the Indonesian population using the Mixed Method where the population is obtained from the Mathematical Method and the age group section is obtained through the Component Method with basic data from the 2020 Population Census and the assumption of an LPP population growth rate of 1.25% in 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050, 2055 and 2060 respectively are 287519166, 305944013, 325549565, 346411482, 368610276, 392231616, 417366663, 444112417 people.
Abstrak. Proyeksi penduduk Indonesia tahun 2010 telah dibuat, di antaranya oleh Sucipto dan Tukiran (1992), BPS (2002), Nurwindiagiri (2004), Karyana (2004) dan BPS, BAPPENAS dan UNFPA (2018). Namun karena data dasar penduduk dan atau asumsi yang digunakan untuk proyeksi berbeda, maka hasilnya berbeda pula, dan apabila dibandingkan dengan hasil Sensus Penduduk 2020 (SP 2020) tidak ada yang sama. Pada periode tahun 1971-1980 laju pertumbuhan penduduk (LPP) mencapai 3,2 % per tahun turun menjadi 1,97 % per tahun pada periode 1980-1990 dan menjadi 1,5 % per tahun pada periode 1990-2000. Namun pada periode 2000-2010 tidak turun, tetapi tetap sebesar 1,5 % per tahun. BPS telah merilis Potret Sensus Penduduk 2020 bahwa pada periode tahun 2010-2020 terjadi laju pertumbuhan penduduk per tahun yaitu LPP = 1,25 % dengan jumlah penduduk 270,20 juta orang. Dalam skripsi ini akan dibuat proyeksi penduduk Indonesia sampai tahun 2060 menggunakan data dasar hasil Sensus Penduduk 2020 dengan asumsi laju pertumbuhan penduduk LPP = 1,25 % (BPS, 2020) serta menggunakan Metode Campuran. Hasil proyeksi penduduk Indonesia menggunakan Metode Campuran yang mana jumlah penduduk diperoleh dari Metode Matematik dan bagian kelompok umur didapatkan melalui Metode Komponen dengan data dasar hasil Sensus Penduduk tahun 2020 dan asumsi laju pertumbuhan penduduk LPP sebesar 1,25% pada tahun 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050, 2055 dan tahun 2060 berturut-turut adalah 287519166, 305944013, 325549565, 346411482, 368610276, 392231616, 417366663, 444112417 orang.
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Cooper, Samantha. "Prison Population Projections 2014–2020". Probation Journal 62, n.º 1 (marzo de 2015): 75–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0264550515570194c.
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Ledermann, Florian. "Classifying Cartographic Projections Based on Dynamic Analysis of Program Code". Abstracts of the ICA 2 (9 de octubre de 2020): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-2-38-2020.
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Abstract. Analyzing a given map to identify its projection and other geometrical properties has long been an important aspect of cartographic analysis. If explicit information about the projection used in a particular map is not available, the properties of the cartographic transformation can sometimes be reconstructed from the map image. However, such a process of projection analysis requires significant manual labor and oversight.For digital maps, we usually expect the projection from geographic space to map space to have been calculated by a computer program. Such a program can be expected to contain the implementation of the mathematical rules of the projection and subsequent coordinate transformations such as translation and scaling. The program code, therefore, contains information that would allow an analyst to reliably identify map projections and other geometrical transformations applied to the input data.In the case of interactive online maps, the code generating the map is in fact delivered to the map user and could be used for cartographic analysis. The core idea of our novel method proposed for map analysis is to apply reverse engineering techniques on the code implementing the cartographic transformations in order to retrieve the properties of the applied map projection. However, automatic reasoning about computer code by way of static analysis (analyzing the source code without running it) is provably limited – for example, the code delivered to the map user may contain a whole library of different map projections, of which only a specific one may be actually used at runtime. Instead, we propose a dynamic analysis approach to observe and monitor the operations performed by the code as the program runs, and to retrieve the mathematical operations that have been used to calculate the coordinates of every graphical element on the map.The presented method produces, for every graphical element of the map, a transformation graph consisting of low-level mathematical operations. Cartographic projections can be identified as distinctive patterns in the transformation graph, and can be distinguished in a fully automatic way by matching a set of predefined patterns against a particular graph.Projections vary widely in their arithmetic structure, and therefore by the structure of the corresponding transformation graphs extracted from program code. Some projections can be computed directly using continuous equations involving trigonometric functions. Other projections involve solving nonlinear equations, which need to be solved by approximation. Composite projections use different projections depending on some threshold value. Yet other projections, such as the Robinson projection, define a table of predefined values, between which interpolation is used etc.. In each of these cases, we expect to find the operations corresponding to the mathematical structure of the projection in the transformation graph extracted by the presented method.For verifying the method, we have implemented the patterns of several well-known cartographic projections based on the literature and have used it on the transformation graphs extracted from a variety of sample programs. To ensure a diversity of implementations, we have evaluated programs using different and independent JavaScript implementations of projections, including the open source libraries D3.js, proj4js, Leaflet, OpenLayers, and informal implementations of example programs found online. For these case studies, we could successfully identify many projections based on identifying patterns in the transformation graph in a fully automated, unsupervised manner.In the future, the proposed method may be further developed for many innovative application scenarios, such as building a “cartographic search engine” or constructing novel tools for semi-automatic cartographic analysis and review.
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Lapaine, М., E. L. Usery y M. V. Nyrtsov. "To the 20 anniversary of ICA Commission on Map Projections of the International Cartographic Association (2003–2023)". Geodesy and Cartography 963, n.º 9 (20 de octubre de 2020): 44–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.22389/0016-7126-2020-963-9-44-52.
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The Commission on Map Projections (CoMP) of the International Cartographic Association (ICA) was chartered and began aсting in 2003. The Commission has been active in promoting and distributing map projections research, education, and knowledge through its individual members, conferences and workshops of the ICA. Among the developments of the CoMP there are published papers of the workshops, conference sessions at the International Cartographic Conferences, and other international conferences in cartography and geoinformation. The CoMP has developed and maintained a public website with tutorial information on map projections, published research, decision systems to help in projection selection, news and announcements of the events, and an archive of the Commission’s activities. Among the publications of the CoMP there are research papers, conference proceedings, book chapters, and a book on Choosing a Map Projection. The CoMP are going to continue research and education activities, workshops, conferences, and publications to advance map projections with the 2019 to 2023 term.
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Landry, Michel D., Laurita M. Hack, Elizabeth Coulson, Janet Freburger, Michael P. Johnson, Richard Katz, Joanne Kerwin et al. "Workforce Projections 2010–2020: Annual Supply and Demand Forecasting Models for Physical Therapists Across the United States". Physical Therapy 96, n.º 1 (1 de enero de 2016): 71–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.2522/ptj.20150010.
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BackgroundHealth human resources continue to emerge as a critical health policy issue across the United States.ObjectiveThe purpose of this study was to develop a strategy for modeling future workforce projections to serve as a basis for analyzing annual supply of and demand for physical therapists across the United States into 2020.DesignA traditional stock-and-flow methodology or model was developed and populated with publicly available data to produce estimates of supply and demand for physical therapists by 2020.MethodsSupply was determined by adding the estimated number of physical therapists and the approximation of new graduates to the number of physical therapists who immigrated, minus US graduates who never passed the licensure examination, and an estimated attrition rate in any given year. Demand was determined by using projected US population with health care insurance multiplied by a demand ratio in any given year. The difference between projected supply and demand represented a shortage or surplus of physical therapists.ResultsThree separate projection models were developed based on best available data in the years 2011, 2012, and 2013, respectively. Based on these projections, demand for physical therapists in the United States outstrips supply under most assumptions.LimitationsWorkforce projection methodology research is based on assumptions using imperfect data; therefore, the results must be interpreted in terms of overall trends rather than as precise actuarial data–generated absolute numbers from specified forecasting.ConclusionsOutcomes of this projection study provide a foundation for discussion and debate regarding the most effective and efficient ways to influence supply-side variables so as to position physical therapists to meet current and future population demand. Attrition rates or permanent exits out of the profession can have important supply-side effects and appear to have an effect on predicting future shortage or surplus of physical therapists.
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Kawasaki, Toshiharu y Hiroko Manaka. "The Split Feasibility Problem with Some Projection Methods in Banach Spaces". Abstract and Applied Analysis 2020 (28 de diciembre de 2020): 1–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/2913087.
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In this paper, we study the split feasibility problem in Banach spaces. At first, we prove that a solution of this problem is a solution of the equivalent equation defined by using a metric projection, a generalized projection, and sunny generalized nonexpansive retraction, respectively. Then, using the hybrid method with these projections, we prove strong convergence theorems in mathematical programing in order to find a solution of the split feasibility problem in Banach spaces.
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Suparmono, Suparmono. "The Impact of Covid-19 on Economic Growth". Wahana: Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen dan Akuntansi 24, n.º 1 (13 de marzo de 2021): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.35591/wahana.v1i24.296.
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The Covid-19 pandemic in Indonesia since March 2020 has had an impact on negative economic growth for two quarters, namely minus 5.2 percent in the second quarter and minus 3.49 percent in the third quarter (yoy). Likewise, the economic growth of Kulon Progo Regency is expected to experience a drastic decline in 2021, after 2019/2019 had the highest growth reaching 18 percent.This article aims to analyze impact the Covid-19 pandemic has on the economy growth of Kulon Progo Regency per economic sector. This article also projections Kulon Progo's economic growth until 2024 using eleven projection methods. From the results of the projections carried out, the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of Kulon Progo Regency in 2020 is predicted to slow down due to the Covid-19 pandemic case which affects almost all sectors. However, this decline only occurred in 2020, because in the following year several sectors are predicted to increase in line with the improving situation and operation of infrastructure projects. Several sectors that will increase, such as the transportation and warehousing sectors, due to normal activities at Yogyakarta International Airport (YIA). Based on the optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic scenario, Kulon Progo Regency's economic growth will continue to grow positively. There are two contributions of this research, firstly analyzing the impact of the pandemic and projecting the impact for the next 4 years and secondly, the projection is carried out using the best model of eleven methods.
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Román-Sánchez, Yuliana Gabriela, Emma Liliana Navarrete-López y Adán Barreto-Villanueva. "Método para estimar proyecciones de población en la zona metropolitana del valle de México. Años 2010-2020-2050". Población y Desarrollo 29, n.º 56 (13 de abril de 2023): 57–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.18004/pdfce/2076-054x/2023.029.56.057.
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Putri, Yulia Krismya, Rochmat Aldy Purnomo, Yeni Cahyono, Slamet Santoso y Sayid Abas. "Efforts to Increase Free Regional Original Income on the Ponorogo Regency Regional Tax Road-Map for 2022-2026". Media Trend 17, n.º 2 (29 de diciembre de 2022): 552–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.21107/mediatrend.v17i2.17018.
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Local tax revenue is the largest source of local revenue. Conditions in Ponorogo Regency in the local tax revenue sector have decreased in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The government must prepare a strategy and design to recover lost tax revenues in 2020. Projections are made to find out the amount of local tax revenue, especially in Ponorogo Regency in the coming 2022-2026. This study aims to calculate and project the value of regional tax revenue for Ponorogo Regency in 2022-2026 and design activities so that these projections can be fulfilled. Secondary data obtained from the Office of Revenue, Financial Management and Regional Assets of Ponorogo Regency. The largest revenue from the Regional Tax for Ponorogo Regency in 2013-2021 is land and building taxes with a total of 250,443,706,350 and the lowest is the groundwater tax post which only reaches 1,862,439,630. However, after making projections for 2022-2026 the largest tax post occurs in total hotels with a value of 6,072,824,558 and the lowest tax post occurs with a parking tax of 722,938,090. The value of the highest tax item has changed in the hotel tax post as well as the hidden tax item in the parking tax which has changed in its entirety from before the projection was carried out. So it is necessary to renew new activity programs in order to increase tax items that are still low and maintain tax items that are already large.
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Sagarese, Skyler R., Nathan R. Vaughan, John F. Walter y Mandy Karnauskas. "Enhancing single-species stock assessments with diverse ecosystem perspectives: a case study for Gulf of Mexico red grouper (Epinephelus morio) and red tides". Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 78, n.º 8 (agosto de 2021): 1168–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2020-0257.
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Impacts of Karenia brevis red tide blooms have been an increasing cause of concern for fisheries management in the Gulf of Mexico (Gulf). The 2019 Gulf red grouper (Epinephelus morio) stock assessment was confronted with the challenges of quantifying and parameterizing red tides during both historical and projection time periods. Red tide mortality was estimated for each age class in the model solely in 2005 and 2014 during severe events. Given the considerable uncertainty surrounding the 2018 red tide and its substantial implications on the status of the population, several projection scenarios were evaluated. Under the assumption of no 2018 red tide mortality, near-term catches were projected to nearly double, a predicted outcome that appeared to be in contrast with recent record low catches and fishing industry perceptions of major stock depletion. In the event that the 2018 red tide caused mortality, but was not accounted for in projections, the recommended catch levels would lead to high probabilities of overfishing and potentially stock collapse. Collectively, these results highlight how consideration of uncertainty in projections can help avoid unintended consequences.
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O'Reilly, Christopher H., Daniel J. Befort y Antje Weisheimer. "Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data". Earth System Dynamics 11, n.º 4 (19 de noviembre de 2020): 1033–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1033-2020.
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Abstract. This study examines methods of calibrating projections of future regional climate for the next 40–50 years using large single-model ensembles (the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble and Max Planck Institute (MPI) Grand Ensemble), applied over Europe. The three calibration methods tested here are more commonly used for initialised forecasts from weeks up to seasonal timescales. The calibration techniques are applied to ensemble climate projections, fitting seasonal ensemble data to observations over a reference period (1920–2016). The calibration methods were tested and verified using an “imperfect model” approach using the historical/representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) archive. All the calibration methods exhibit a similar performance, generally improving the out-of-sample projections in comparison to the uncalibrated (bias-corrected) ensemble. The calibration methods give results that are largely indistinguishable from one another, so the simplest of these methods, namely homogeneous Gaussian regression (HGR), is used for the subsequent analysis. As an extension to the HGR calibration method it is applied to dynamically decomposed data, in which the underlying data are separated into dynamical and residual components (HGR-decomp). Based on the verification results obtained using the imperfect model approach, the HGR-decomp method is found to produce more reliable and accurate projections than the uncalibrated ensemble for future climate over Europe. The calibrated projections for temperature demonstrate a particular improvement, whereas the projections for changes in precipitation generally remain fairly unreliable. When the two large ensembles are calibrated using observational data, the climate projections for Europe are far more consistent between the two ensembles, with both projecting a reduction in warming but a general increase in the uncertainty of the projected changes.
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Burge, Russel T., Dan Worley, Antony Johansen, Samir Bhattacharyya y Uday Bose. "The cost of osteoporotic fractures in the UK: projections for 2000–2020". Journal of Medical Economics 4, n.º 1-4 (enero de 2001): 51–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.3111/200104051062.
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PINHEIRO (UFPA), Bárbara Furtado y Rosângela Do Socorro Nogueira de SOUSA (UFPA). "OS PROCESSOS VERBAIS E SUAS PROJEÇÕES EM NOTÍCIAS DO G1 PARÁ SOBRE VIOLÊNCIA DOMÉSTICA DO ANO DE 2020 A 2021 NA PERSPECTIVA DA METAFUNÇÃO IDEACIONAL". Margens 16, n.º 27 (23 de diciembre de 2022): 283. http://dx.doi.org/10.18542/rmi.v16i27.10726.
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The present research aims to analyze the verbal processes and processes contained in news projections of G1 Pará on domestic violence from January 2020 to July 2021 in order to reveal how these processes contribute to represent cases of domestic violence and their main participants - victims, perpetrators and police. The theoretical contribution is based on Systemic-Functional Linguistics, whose authors are Halliday and Matthiessen (2004); Marcuschi (1991); Fuzer and Cabral (2014); Eggins (2004); Thompson (2014); Anglada and Oliva (2017). The methodology is documentary and descriptive, whose corpus consists of 104 sentences of 18 news. The results indicated 52 verbal processes that made projections; 1 process that neither performs projections nor is included in a proposition; the processes inserted in projections are: 31 material, 3 mental, 7 relational, 1 behavioral, 7 verbal and 2 existential. It is concluded that the processes employed are intrinsically linked to the newspaper's purposes.
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Mariotto, A. B., K. Robin Yabroff, Y. Shao, E. J. Feuer y M. L. Brown. "Projections of the Cost of Cancer Care in the United States: 2010-2020". JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute 103, n.º 2 (12 de enero de 2011): 117–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jnci/djq495.
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Ortiz, Isabel y Matthew Cummins. "The Austerity Decade 2010-20". Social Policy and Society 20, n.º 1 (17 de diciembre de 2020): 142–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1474746420000433.
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In the wake of the financial, food and fuel crises, a fourth ‘F’ shockwave hit the global economy in 2010: fiscal adjustment. It would mark the onset of a prolonged period of budget cuts that is now projected to continue at least through 2020 in high-income and developing countries alike. This article: (i) examines International Monetary Fund (IMF) government spending projections for 187 countries from 2005 to 2020, indicating a decade of austerity from 2010 onwards; (ii) reviews 616 IMF country reports in 183 countries to identify the main adjustment measures; and (iii) discusses the negative impacts of austerity on jobs and welfare, pointing to alternative policies to identify fiscal space for equitable and sustainable development. Note that this analysis was done prior to COVID-19, and the estimates for 2019 and 2020 reflect pre-pandemic projections.
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Talha, Syed Muhammad Umar, Tariq Mairaj, Waleed Bin Yousuf y Jawwad Ali Zahed. "Region-Based Segmentation and Wiener Pilot-Based Novel Amoeba Denoising Scheme for CT Imaging". Scanning 2020 (13 de diciembre de 2020): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/6172046.
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Computed tomography (CT) is one of the most common and beneficial medical imaging schemes, but the associated high radiation dose injurious to the patient is always a concern. Therefore, postprocessing-based enhancement of a CT reconstructed image acquired using a reduced dose is an active research area. Amoeba- (or spatially variant kernel-) based filtering is a strong candidate scheme for postprocessing of the CT image, which adapts its shape according to the image contents. In the reported research work, the amoeba filtering is customized for postprocessing of CT images acquired at a reduced X-ray dose. The proposed scheme modifies both the pilot image formation and amoeba shaping mechanism of the conventional amoeba implementation. The proposed scheme uses a Wiener filter-based pilot image, while region-based segmentation is used for amoeba shaping instead of the conventional amoeba distance-based approach. The merits of the proposed scheme include being more suitable for CT images because of the similar region-based and symmetric nature of the human body anatomy, image smoothing without compromising on the edge details, and being adaptive in nature and more robust to noise. The performance of the proposed amoeba scheme is compared to the traditional amoeba kernel in the image denoising application for CT images using filtered back projection (FBP) on sparse-view projections. The scheme is supported by computer simulations using fan-beam projections of clinically reconstructed and simulated head CT phantoms. The scheme is tested using multiple image quality matrices, in the presence of additive projection noise. The scheme implementation significantly improves the image quality visually and statistically, providing better contrast and image smoothing without compromising on edge details. Promising results indicate the efficacy of the proposed scheme.
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Goodwin, Philip, Martin Leduc, Antti-Ilari Partanen, H. Damon Matthews y Alex Rogers. "A computationally efficient method for probabilistic local warming projections constrained by history matching and pattern scaling, demonstrated by WASP–LGRTC-1.0". Geoscientific Model Development 13, n.º 11 (9 de noviembre de 2020): 5389–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5389-2020.
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Abstract. Climate projections are made using a hierarchy of models of different complexities and computational efficiencies. While the most complex climate models contain the most detailed representations of many physical processes within the climate system, both parameter space exploration and integrated assessment modelling require the increased computational efficiency of reduced-complexity models. This study presents a computationally efficient method for generating probabilistic projections of local warming across the globe, using a pattern-scaling approach derived from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble, that can be coupled to any efficient model ensemble simulation of global mean surface warming. While the method can project local warming for arbitrary future scenarios, using it for scenarios with peak global mean warming ≤2 ∘C is problematic due to the large uncertainties involved. First, global mean warming is projected using a 103-member ensemble of history-matched simulations with an example reduced complexity Earth system model: the Warming Acidification and Sea-level Projector (WASP). The ensemble projection of global mean warming from this WASP ensemble is then converted into local warming projections using a pattern-scaling analysis from the CMIP5 archive, considering both the mean and uncertainty of the local to global ratio of temperature change (LGRTC) spatial patterns from the CMIP5 ensemble for high-end and mitigated scenarios. The LGRTC spatial pattern is assessed for scenario dependence in the CMIP5 ensemble using RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and spatial domains are identified where the pattern scaling is useful across a variety of arbitrary scenarios. The computational efficiency of our WASP–LGRTC model approach makes it ideal for future incorporation into an integrated assessment model framework or efficient assessment of multiple scenarios. We utilise an emergent relationship between warming and future cumulative carbon emitted in our simulations to present an approximation tool making local warming projections from total future carbon emitted.
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Fu, Raymond y Ken Fu. "A regime switch error correction model to project sea level rise". PLOS Climate 3, n.º 6 (10 de junio de 2024): e0000369. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000369.
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Climate scientists employ various techniques to study the sea level rise (SLR), one of which is semi-empirical approach where the historical relationship between the SLR and global temperature is extracted from the data and parameterized for future SLR projections. It has been documented that semi-empirical models tend to have large variations in the projections depending on the data and methodologies. This study examines the statistical properties of the data used to construct the semi-empirical models and propose a new specification as a regime switch error correction model. We show that the proposed model has sound statistical foundation and good performance. The out-of-sample model projection of cumulative SLR from 2001–2020 is within 10% of the actual SLR. The model projects that in 21st century, the average and the 5%-95% range (in parenthesis) cumulative sea level rise will be 0.28m (0.20–0.36m), 0.41m (0.33–0.48m), or 0.68m (0.60–0.76m), respectively, under the SSP1-2.6/2-4.5/5-8.5 scenarios. These projections are aligned with IPCC AR5 while lower than IPCC AR6. They are also within the range of the projections in recent studies.
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Chen, Shangfeng y Bin Yu. "Projection of winter NPO-following winter ENSO connection in a warming climate: uncertainty due to internal climate variability". Climatic Change 162, n.º 2 (8 de julio de 2020): 723–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02778-3.
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Abstract Previous observational and modeling studies indicate that the wintertime North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) could significantly impact the following winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability via the seasonal footprinting mechanism (SFM). This study explores climate projections of this winter NPO-ENSO relation in a warming climate based on a 50-member large ensemble of climate simulations conducted with the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). The ensemble mean of the 50 members can well reproduce the observed winter NPO pattern, the NPO-ENSO relationship, and the SFM process over the historical period 1950–2003. These 50 members are then employed to examine climate projections of the NPO-ENSO connection over the anthropogenic forced period 2020–2073. Results indicate that there exists a large spread of projected NPO-ENSO connections across these 50 ensemble members due to internal climate variability. Internal climate variability brings uncertainties in the projection of the winter NPO-ENSO connection originally seen in projected changes of the subtropical center of the winter NPO. The spread of projections of winter NPO-associated atmospheric anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific further results in various responses in the projections of winter and spring precipitation anomalies over the tropical North Pacific, as well as spring zonal wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific, which eventually lead to uncertainties in the projection of the sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical central-eastern Pacific from the following summer to winter.
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Sundseth, Kyrre, Jozef M. Pacyna, Elisabeth G. Pacyna, John Munthe, Mohammed Belhaj y Stefan Astrom. "Economic benefits from decreased mercury emissions: Projections for 2020". Journal of Cleaner Production 18, n.º 4 (marzo de 2010): 386–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2009.10.017.
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Dahal, Sushma, Ruiyan Luo, Raj Kumar Subedi, Meghnath Dhimal y Gerardo Chowell. "Transmission Dynamics and Short-Term Forecasts of COVID-19: Nepal 2020/2021". Epidemiologia 2, n.º 4 (16 de diciembre de 2021): 639–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/epidemiologia2040043.
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Nepal was hard hit by a second wave of COVID-19 from April–May 2021. We investigated the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 at the national and provincial levels by using data on laboratory-confirmed RT-PCR positive cases from the official national situation reports. We performed 8 week-to-week sequential forecasts of 10-days and 20-days at national level using three dynamic phenomenological growth models from 5 March 2021–22 May 2021. We also estimated effective and instantaneous reproduction numbers at national and provincial levels using established methods and evaluated the mobility trends using Google’s mobility data. Our forecast estimates indicated a declining trend of COVID-19 cases in Nepal as of June 2021. Sub-epidemic and Richards models provided reasonable short-term projections of COVID-19 cases based on standard performance metrics. There was a linear pattern in the trajectory of COVID-19 incidence during the first wave (deceleration of growth parameter (p) = 0.41–0.43, reproduction number (Rt) at 1.1 (95% CI: 1.1, 1.2)), and a sub-exponential growth pattern in the second wave (p = 0.61 (95% CI: 0.58, 0.64)) and Rt at 1.3 (95% CI: 1.3, 1.3)). Across provinces, Rt ranged from 1.2 to 1.5 during the early growth phase of the second wave. The instantaneous Rt fluctuated around 1.0 since January 2021 indicating well sustained transmission. The peak in mobility across different areas coincided with an increasing incidence trend of COVID-19. In conclusion, we found that the sub-epidemic and Richards models yielded reasonable short-terms projections of the COVID-19 trajectory in Nepal, which are useful for healthcare utilization planning.
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Xu, Xiao-Ming y Yile Zhao. "J-Self-Adjoint Projections in Krein Spaces". Journal of Function Spaces 2020 (16 de marzo de 2020): 1–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/6725969.
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Let ℋ be a Krein space with fundamental symmetry J. Starting with a canonical block-operator matrix representation of J, we study the regular subspaces of ℋ. We also present block-operator matrix representations of the J-self-adjoint projections for the regular subspaces of ℋ, as well as for the regular complements of the isotropic part in a pseudo-regular subspace of ℋ.
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D'Amico, Carol. "Back to the future: A current view of workforce 2000 and projections for 2020". Employment Relations Today 24, n.º 3 (septiembre de 1997): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ert.3910240302.
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Uno, Itsushi, Toshimasa Ohara, Kazuyo Yamaji y Jun-ichi Kurokawa. "Recent Trends and Future Projections in Asian Air Pollution". Journal of Disaster Research 2, n.º 3 (1 de junio de 2007): 163–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2007.p0163.
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We studied trends in Asian air pollution in recent decades using air-quality monitoring station data, satellite retrieval data (GOME NO2), and regional-scale chemical transport model (CTM) simulation. A newly developed annual Asian-scale emission inventory (REAS) from 1980-2003 was used in observation data analysis and CTM. Analyses of recent trends in annual emissions in China by REAS and satellite GOME NO2 show an 8-10% increase after 2000 suggesting the impact of long-range transport of secondary air pollutants in regions and countries downwind. Detailed analyses of O3 observation data in Japan suggest an annual averaged O3 concentration increase of 2% yr-1 due to this long-range transport. We extended our regional air quality study targeting 2020. REAS provides three emission scenarios for China: the reference case (REF), the policy success case (PSC), and the policy failure case (PFC). Projected REF emissions for 2020 show O3 concentrations rising to 75 to 90 ppbv in June and 75 to 85 ppbv in August over the North China Plain. Projected PFC emissions bring an increase of monthly averaged O3 with greater than 20 ppbv (1 ppbv yr-1 growth) in the North China Plain. Surface O3 under the PFC scenario is enhanced by 6 to 8 ppbv over the Korean Peninsula and by 2 to 6 ppbv in Japan from 2000 to 2020 despite the reduction of NOx in Japan. This may become a critical level in air quality in Asia.
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ANGGREINI, DEWI. "PENERAPAN MODEL POPULASI KONTINU PADA PERHITUNGAN PROYEKSI PENDUDUK DI INDONESIA (STUDI KASUS: PROVINSI JAWA TIMUR)". E-Jurnal Matematika 9, n.º 4 (27 de noviembre de 2020): 229. http://dx.doi.org/10.24843/mtk.2020.v09.i04.p303.
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The population data in Indonesia that is closest to the actual condition is only the data from the population census conducted by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The calculation of population projections in BPS throughout Indonesia uses the component method to see the projection of the population at the provincial level while the district level uses the geometric method with the assumption that the population will begin to increase geometrically with a basic reference for calculating compound interest. This study aims to determine population projections in the province of East Java using exponential and logistical models based on growth rates and carrying capacity. The data used in this study is secondary data, namely the population of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of East Java Province in 2012-2019. The research method used is to determine the research subject, collect data, analyze data and draw conclusions. The results of this research are the carrying capacity value of East Java Province of 43,997,165.5 and the logistic model population growth rate of 0.05111. The conclusion of this research is that the most accurate model for estimating the population of East Java is the V logistic model because it has the smallest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. This research is expected to be useful for users of population data in calculating future population projections
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Salman, Saleem A., Mohamed Salem Nashwan, Tarmizi Ismail y Shamsuddin Shahid. "Selection of CMIP5 general circulation model outputs of precipitation for peninsular Malaysia". Hydrology Research 51, n.º 4 (19 de junio de 2020): 781–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/nh.2020.154.
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Abstract Reduction of uncertainty in climate change projections is a major challenge in impact assessment and adaptation planning. General circulation models (GCMs) along with projection scenarios are the major sources of uncertainty in climate change projections. Therefore, the selection of appropriate GCMs for a region can significantly reduce uncertainty in climate projections. In this study, 20 GCMs were statistically evaluated in replicating the spatial pattern of monsoon propagation towards Peninsular Malaysia at annual and seasonal time frames against the 20th Century Reanalysis dataset. The performance evaluation metrics of the GCMs for different time frames were compromised using a state-of-art multi-criteria decision-making approach, compromise programming, for the selection of GCMs. Finally, the selected GCMs were interpolated to 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution and bias-corrected using the Asian Precipitation – Highly-Resolved Observational Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) rainfall as reference data. The results revealed the better performance of BCC-CSM1-1 and HadGEM2-ES in replicating the historical rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia. The bias-corrected projections of selected GCMs revealed a large variation of the mean, standard deviation and 95% percentile of daily rainfall in the study area for two futures, 2020–2059 and 2060–2099 compared to base climate.
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Du, Zhanwei, Spencer J. Fox, Tanvi Ingle, Michael P. Pignone y Lauren Ancel Meyers. "Projecting the Combined Health Care Burden of Seasonal Influenza and COVID-19 in the 2020–2021 Season". MDM Policy & Practice 7, n.º 1 (enero de 2022): 238146832210846. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/23814683221084631.
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Background. In mid-2020, there was significant concern that the overlapping 2020–2021 influenza season and COVID-19 pandemic would overwhelm already stressed health care systems in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly if influenza immunization rates were low. Methods. Using a mathematical susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) compartmental model incorporating the age-specific viral transmission rates and disease severity of Austin, Texas, a large metropolitan region, we projected the incidence and health care burden for both COVID-19 and influenza across observed levels of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and influenza immunization rates for the 2020–2021 season. We then retrospectively compared scenario projections made in August 2020 with observed trends through June 2021. Results. Across all scenarios, we projected that the COVID-19 burden would dwarf that of influenza. In all but our lowest transmission scenarios, intensive care units were overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients, with the levels of influenza immunization having little impact on health care capacity needs. Consistent with our projections, sustained nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in Austin prevented COVID-19 from overwhelming health care systems and almost completely suppressed influenza during the 2020–2021 respiratory virus season. Limitations. The model assumed no cross-immunity between SARS-CoV-2 and influenza, which might reduce the burden or slow the transmission of 1 or both viruses. Conclusion. Before the widespread rollout of the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, COVID-19 was projected to cause an order of magnitude more hospitalizations than seasonal influenza because of its higher transmissibility and severity. Consistent with predictions assuming strong NPIs, COVID-19 strained but did not overwhelm local health care systems in Austin, while the influenza burden was negligible. Implications. Nonspecific NPI efforts can dramatically reduce seasonal influenza burden and preserve health care capacity during respiratory virus season. Highlights As the COVID-19 pandemic threatened lives worldwide, the Northern Hemisphere braced for a potential “twindemic” of seasonal influenza and COVID-19. Using a validated mathematical model of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 co-circulation in a large US city, we projected the impact of COVID-19–driven nonpharmaceutical interventions combined with influenza vaccination on health care capacity during the 2020–2021 respiratory virus season. We describe analyses conducted during summer 2020 to help US cities prepare for the 2020–2021 influenza season and provide a retrospective evaluation of the initial projections.
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Hassan Akhtar, Ibrar ul. "EXPLORING COVID-19 PANDEMIC INITIAL 2020 CURVE BASED ON STATISTICAL EVALUATION". Acta Scientifica Malaysia 7, n.º 1 (2023): 08–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.26480/asm.01.2023.08.16.
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This research was to explore CoVID-19 at initial stage of 2020 based on statistical techniques using probability density function (PDF), with different statistical measures, polynomial data fitting along with 30 day projections. The Covid-19 analysis was carried out only for highly affected countries along with six different regions and global level for 64 days covering period of January to March during 2020. It was found that infection and recovery rate for cases were ranged from 0 ‒ 9.89 and 0 ‒ 8.89% at global level, respectively. The PDF was observed highly positive skewed, leptokurtic, for confirmed cases representing 6620 daily mean infected population for confirmed cases. Countries of USA, Chinas, Spain, France, Italy, Iran, UK and Switzerland were eexpected to be most affected countries with minimum 0.100 million infected population. The projection errors for infection rate remained -78.8 to 49.0%. The curve of CoVID-19 and PDF (skewness and kurtosis) measures provided understanding of data shape and peak height.
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Çamlibel, Mehmet Emre, Natalija Lepkova y Çağdaş Aygün. "ANALYSIS OF TURKISH RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION MARKET DYNAMICS FOR THE PERIODS OF 2010–2015, 2015–2019, AND PROJECTIONS FOR THE FUTURE". Engineering Structures and Technologies 12, n.º 1 (7 de septiembre de 2020): 1–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/est.2020.13397.
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The Turkish residential market supported by macro-economic developments is of great importance for the country's economy and the construction industry. The main purpose of this study is to analyze the Turkish residential construction market dynamics, especially in terms of price-cost and supply-demand regimes and conduct future projections. For this purpose, analysis of construction cost and residential price indexes, total and mortgaged residential sales, and construction and occupancy permits were evaluated utilizing institutional data. In addition, positive and negative effects of the changes in the residential prices in the macro scale were examined. After, conducting the residential price and cost change analysis for between 2010-2023, future stock volume and residential market projections were carried out. As a result of the analysis, we can divide the residential market into 3 periods: positive development period between 2010 and 2015, the recession period from 2015 to 2019, and the period after 2020. In the projection, depending on the supply contraction and the results of demand changes, price and cost increases, the current residential stock volume will reach its lowest level by 2023. Following this, the last period is expected to reach a more balanced residential market shaped by need-based purchases rather than individual investments.
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Bazazo, Ibrahim, Lama’a Mahmoud Al-Orainat y Maher Odeh Falah Al-Shamaileh. "Morphology of land Uses in Aqaba City during the Period (2000-2020)". Journal of Social Sciences (COES&RJ-JSS) 9, n.º 3 (1 de julio de 2020): 987. http://dx.doi.org/10.25255/jss.2020.9.3.987.1002.
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The aim of this research is to identify the morphology of land usage in the city of Aqaba from the year 2000 through 2020, utilizing satellite data analysis and visualizations of topographic maps studying land uses and spatial organizations and relationships between all relevant users in the study area.
By relying on GIS and remote sensing software, with the aim of providing a holistic picture that contributes to identifying the current reality of land uses and future forecasting within the actual territories, the study found that the importance of integrated management based on an analysis of the morphology of land use contributed most to sustainable planning. Morphological projections relating to land uses contributed the most to correct decision making in pursuit of a more holistic planning process for the study area.
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Shamir, Eylon, Lourdes Mendoza Fierro, Sahar Mohsenzadeh Karimi, Norman Pelak, Emilie Tarouilly, Hsin-I. Chang y Christopher L. Castro. "Climate Change Projections of Potential Evapotranspiration for the North American Monsoon Region". Hydrology 11, n.º 6 (14 de junio de 2024): 83. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/hydrology11060083.
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We assessed and quantified future projected changes in terrestrial evaporative demand by calculating Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) for the North American Monsoon region in the Southwestern U.S. and Mexico. The PET projections were calculated using the daily Penman–Monteith equation. The terrestrial meteorological variables needed for the equation (i.e., minimum and maximum daily temperature, specific humidity, wind speed, incoming shortwave radiation, and pressure) were obtained from the North American–CORDEX initiative. We used dynamically downscaled projections of three CMIP5 GCMs for RCP8.5 emission scenarios (i.e., HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-LR, and GFDL-ESM2M), and each was dynamically downscaled to ~25 km by two RCMs (i.e., WRF and regCM4). All terrestrial annual PET projections showed a statistically significant increase when comparing the historical period (1986–2005) to future projections (2020–2039 and 2040–2059). The regional spatial average of the six GCM-RCM combinations projected an increase in the annual PET of about +4% and +8% for 2020–2039 and 2040–2059, respectively. The projected average 20-year annual changes over the study area range for the two projection periods were +1.4%–+8.7% and +3%–+14.2%, respectively. The projected annual PET increase trends are consistent across the entire region and for the six GCM-RCM combinations. Higher annual changes are projected in the northeast part of the region, while smaller changes are projected along the pacific coast. The main drivers for the increase are the projected warming and increase in the vapor pressure deficit. The projected changes in PET, which represent the changes in the atmospheric evaporative demand, are substantial and likely to impact vegetation and the hydrometeorological regime in the area. Quantitative assessments of the projected PET changes provided by this study should be considered in upcoming studies to develop resilience plans and adaptation strategies for mitigating the projected future changes.
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Xi, Yue y Pengfei Xu. "Global colorectal cancer burden in 2020 and projections to 2040". Translational Oncology 14, n.º 10 (octubre de 2021): 101174. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tranon.2021.101174.
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Tichy, Eric M., Glen T. Schumock, James M. Hoffman, Katie J. Suda, Matthew H. Rim, Mina Tadrous, JoAnn Stubbings et al. "National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2020". American Journal of Health-System Pharmacy 77, n.º 15 (15 de mayo de 2020): 1213–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ajhp/zxaa116.
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Abstract Purpose To report historical patterns of pharmaceutical expenditures, to identify factors that may influence future spending, and to predict growth in drug spending in 2020 in the United States, with a focus on the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors. Methods Historical patterns were assessed by examining data on drug purchases from manufacturers using the IQVIA National Sales Perspectives database. Factors that may influence drug spending in hospitals and clinics in 2020 were reviewed, including new drug approvals, patent expirations, and potential new policies or legislation. Focused analyses were conducted for specialty drugs, biosimilars, and diabetes medications. For nonfederal hospitals, clinics, and overall (all sectors), estimates of growth of pharmaceutical expenditures in 2020 were based on a combination of quantitative analyses and expert opinion. Results In 2019, overall US pharmaceutical expenditures grew 5.4% compared to 2018, for a total of $507.9 billion. This increase was driven to similar degrees by prices, utilization, and new drugs. Adalimumab was the top drug in US expenditures in 2019, followed by apixaban and insulin glargine. Drug expenditures were $36.9 billion (a 1.5% increase from 2018) and $90.3 billion (an 11.8% increase from 2018) in nonfederal hospitals and clinics, respectively. In clinics, growth was driven by new products and increased utilization, whereas in hospitals growth was driven by new products and price increases. Several new drugs that will likely influence spending are expected to be approved in 2020. Specialty and cancer drugs will continue to drive expenditures. Conclusion For 2020 we expect overall prescription drug spending to rise by 4.0% to 6.0%, whereas in clinics and hospitals we anticipate increases of 9.0% to 11.0% and 2.0% to 4.0%, respectively, compared to 2019. These national estimates of future pharmaceutical expenditure growth may not be representative of any particular health system because of the myriad of local factors that influence actual spending.
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Kousoulidou, Marina, Leonidas Ntziachristos, Giorgos Mellios y Zissis Samaras. "Road-transport emission projections to 2020 in European urban environments". Atmospheric Environment 42, n.º 32 (octubre de 2008): 7465–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.06.002.
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Adamek, Margaret E. "2020". Advances in Social Work 19, n.º 2 (7 de abril de 2020): i—v. http://dx.doi.org/10.18060/23952.
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At the dawn of a new decade, I cannot help but recall that when I started my academic career in social work in the 1990s, it was common to look ahead to how life would be in the next century. Statistical projections forecast various demographic changes, often using 2020 as the future time frame. Back then, 2020 sounded far away and almost alien. Well folks, the future is here. Now that 2020 has dawned, it seems that the more things change, the more they stay the same. Certainly, the specific issues that social workers address have changed over the decades, and our approaches have been modified to tackle the new issues, but the struggle to understand and meet emerging needs persists. I used to jokingly hear that the ultimate goal of the social work profession was to put ourselves out of business. Given the intransigence of intolerance for difference and the persistent emergence of needs arising from “advances” of modern living, it seems the social justice stance of our profession will never be fully met. Indeed, our social contract is continually expanding.
In the Fall 2019 issue of Advances in Social Work we are pleased to present 14 papers--11 empirical, 3 conceptual--written by 29 authors from 12 states across the U.S., representing different regions of the country and Ghana. Each paper is briefly introduced below.
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Kofnov, O. V. "Visualization of multidimensional feasible values areas in the management problems of complex objects". Informatization and communication 5 (diciembre de 2020): 29–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.34219/2078-8320-2020-11-5-29-33.
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Goal. The goal of this study is the development of a convenient method for visualizing multidimensional data by projecting onto two-dimensional planes. According to the projections obtained in this way, the expert can assess the entire range of permissible values for the subsequent management decision-making. Materials and methods. This goal is achieved by using standard database management tools and the declarative SQL language. The results can be presented in the form of digital images using both standard charting tools and a developed original computer program. Results. An algorithm for preparing and displaying multidimensional data on two-dimensional planes is proposed on the example of a fi ve-dimensional area. The proposed algorithm can be scaled to a feasible set problem of any dimension. Conclusion. Visualization of multidimensional areas of permissible values by projection onto two-dimensional planes simplifi es the perception of data by a decision-maker, which is relevant in automated decision support systems (DSS) in the management problems of complex objects (CO).
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Syahbandi, Syahbandi y Djunita Permata Indah. "ANALISIS LAPORAN KEUANGAN DAN PROYEKSI ARUS KAS PDAM KOTA PONTIANAK TAHUN 2020-2023". JAAKFE UNTAN (Jurnal Audit dan Akuntansi Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Tanjungpura) 12, n.º 1 (15 de marzo de 2023): 90. http://dx.doi.org/10.26418/jaakfe.v12i1.62962.
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Cash flow can be a very useful tool for companies in repairing and managing company assets, so it is necessary to calculate cash flow projections to ensure cash availability for the company. This study aims to calculate cash flow predictions at PDAM Pontianak City for 2020-2023 based on the 2017-2019 financial reports and compared with the actual profit (loss) reports for 2020-2021. The results of the study show that in predicting cash flows, there will be a very significant decrease if efforts to improve and manage assets are not carried out at this time. However, from 2020 to 2021, PDAM Tirta Khatulistiwa has succeeded in improving and managing assets so that they can increase company profits by keeping the value of operating expenses at a fairly stable number.
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Yabroff, K. Robin, Angela B. Mariotto, Eric Feuer y Martin L. Brown. "Projections of the costs associated with colorectal cancer care in the United States, 2000–2020". Health Economics 17, n.º 8 (agosto de 2008): 947–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hec.1307.
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Kerkovits, Krisztián y Tünde Takáts. "Reference frame and map projection for irregular shaped celestial bodies". Abstracts of the ICA 2 (9 de octubre de 2020): 1–2. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-2-42-2020.
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Abstract. Recent advancements of technology resulted in greater knowledge of the Solar System and the need for mapping small celestial bodies significantly increased. However, creating a good map of such small objects is a big challenge for the cartographer: they are usually irregular shaped, the usual reference frames like the ellipsoid of revolution is inappropriate for their approximation.A method is presented to develop best-fitting irregular surfaces of revolution that can approximate any irregular celestial body. (Fig. 1.) Then a simple equal-area map projection is calculated to map this reference frame onto a plane. The shape of the resulting map in this projection resembles the shape of the original celestial body.The usefulness of the method is demonstrated on the example of the comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. This comet has a highly irregular shape, which is hard to map. Previously used map projections for this comet include the simple cylindrical, which greatly distorts the surface and cannot depict the depressions of the object. Other maps used the combination of two triaxial ellipsoids as the reference frame, and the gained mapping had low distortion but at the expense of showing the tiny surface divided into 11 maps in different complicated map projections (Nyrtsov et. al., 2018). On the other hand, our mapping displays the comet in one single map with moderate distortion and the shape of the map frame suggests the original shape of the celestial body (Fig. 2. and 3.).
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Breili, Kristian. "Evolution of sea-level trends along the Norwegian coast from 1960 to 2100". Ocean Dynamics 72, n.º 2 (22 de enero de 2022): 115–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10236-021-01492-7.
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AbstractA first national analysis of the evolution of sea-level rates along the Norwegian coast for the period 1960–2100 has been accomplished by exploring tide-gauge records, relative sea-level projections, and detection techniques for acceleration. Firstly, sea-level rates for the two study periods 1960–2020 and 1991–2020 were estimated. Along the Norwegian coast, relative sea-level rates show significant spatial variation due to glacial isostatic adjustment. Moreover, the coastal average sea-level rate for the period 1991–2020 is significantly higher than for the period 1960–2020. Accelerations were then estimated for all combinations of start years and study periods longer than 30 years by including quadratic coefficients in regression models. It was found that the estimates strongly depend on the study period and do not provide confident estimates of climate change driven variation in the sea level along the Norwegian coast. Secondly, non-linear trends in relative sea level were reconstructed from Singular-Spectrum Analysis, which at several tide gauges revealed low rates in the 1970s, maximum rates around 1990, and declining rates thereafter. From the reconstructed trends, significant positive acceleration in the relative sea level was estimated for the period 1960–2020, while accelerations less than zero were detected for the period 1991–2020. However, the estimates for the recent period appear not robust due to the influence of decadal and multidecadal variation characterizing Norwegian tide-gauge records. Finally, by artificially extending the tide-gauge records by projections, the time when unprecedented high sea-level rates emerge was identified. With projections calculated for the intensive emission scenario RCP8.5, the climate signal of the relative sea level emerges at earliest in the late 2030s. The time of emergence is typically 5 to 10 years later if reanalysis of sea-level pressure and wind speed are used to reduce decadal variation in the tide-gauge records. This is because the meteorological regressors, as a side effect, introduce serial correlations that lead to rate estimates with enlarged standard errors. An important implication of the findings is that a possible absence of record high sea-level rates in the 2020s and 2030s does not falsify that relative sea level along the Norwegian coast is consistent with projections of RCP8.5.
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Wijayanti, Tika, Udin Syaefudin Saud y Nani Hartini. "Proyeksi Kebutuhan Ruang Kelas SD Kabupaten Subang Berdasarkan Penduduk Usia Sekolah 2021-2025". Jurnal Tata Kelola Pendidikan 4, n.º 1 (15 de agosto de 2023): 55–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.17509/jtkp.v4i1.61430.
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This study examines the problem of the classroom needs analysis based on projections of elementary school age-population growth. Research aims to: a) get information on the projection of the total population (SAP, PCN, and total number of students based on NER); b) get information on the projected number of new students absorbed by elementary school; and c) get projected information on the number of classrooms needed. The method used in this research is descriptive method with qualitative approach. In this research, the data sources were the elementary school Facilities and Infrastructure Staff and Head of the Department of Population and Civil Registration. Data collected by the study of documentation, interviews, and observations. The results of the research conducted indicate that: a) the population is increasing every year; b) SAP and PCN have decreased every year; c) NER achievement, generally decreased from 2016-2019 and increased in 2020; d) ASK is experiencing an increasing trend so that the number of new students each year has increased; e) the number of classrooms in 2021 which is calculated based on 1000 residents requires 611 elementary schools, based on national education standards still less 39 units
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Ismanto y Vega Melati Putri. "PERBANDINGAN TEKNIK RADIOGRAFI CLAVICULA PADA KLINIS FRAKTUR". JRI (Jurnal Radiografer Indonesia) 4, n.º 2 (29 de noviembre de 2021): 95–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.55451/jri.v4i2.97.
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ABSTRACT
Background: The clavicle radiograph is one of the examinations that can diagnose fracture pathology. Radiographic examination of the clavicle generally uses the Antero Posterior (AP) and AP Axial projections 15°-30° cranially. But in fact radiology installations differ in using the position of the patient and the direction of the beam. The purpose of this paper is to determine the radiographic technique of the clavicle in clinical fractures from differences in patient position and beam direction and its effect on the results of the picture.
Methods: This type of research is descriptive with a literature study approach, looking for research journals on google scholar, and science direct from November to December 2020, using the keywords clavicle, clavicle, clavicle radiograph, clavicle, clavicle fracture, clavicle x-ray. Of the 15 journals obtained, 4 journals met the criteria.
Results: Examination using 2 projections is only able to provide visualization from a superior and inferior point of view. Examination using 4 projections is able to show viewing angles from anterior, posterior, inferior, and superior. So it can visualize the image better. The 15cranially AP projection is preferred over the 15caudally AP projection, because the measurement results are not shortened, and the fracture distance is more visible. No statistically significant difference was found for the difference in arm orientation between arm flexion and arm extension in shortening measurements. The degree of change in the location of the fracture image results in a vertical direction significantly shows greater results when the examination is carried out with the patient in an erect position when compared to the supine patient position.
Conclusions: Based on the projection, the use of 4 projections can eliminate the effect of clavicle fracture distance, and provide a 3-dimensional image. Giving the direction of the beam with an angle above 15 with a cranially direction produces an optimal picture. In terms of patient position, the optimal image results in the erect position.
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Erikson, Clese, Edward Salsberg, Gaetano Forte, Suanna Bruinooge y Michael Goldstein. "Future Supply and Demand for Oncologists : Challenges to Assuring Access to Oncology Services". Journal of Oncology Practice 3, n.º 2 (marzo de 2007): 79–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1200/jop.0723601.
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Purpose To conduct a comprehensive analysis of supply of and demand for oncology services through 2020. This study was commissioned by the Board of Directors of ASCO. Methods New data on physician supply gathered from surveys of practicing oncologists, oncology fellows, and fellowship program directors were analyzed, along with 2005 American Medical Association Masterfile data on practicing medical oncologists, hematologists/oncologists, and gynecologic oncologists, to determine the baseline capacity and to forecast visit capacity through 2020. Demand for visits was calculated by applying age-, sex-, and time-from-diagnosis-visit rate data from the National Cancer Institute's analysis of the 1998 to 2002 Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database to the National Cancer Institute's cancer incidence and prevalence projections. The cancer incidence and prevalence projections were calculated by applying a 3-year average (2000–2002) of age- and sex-specific cancer rates from SEER to the US Census Bureau population projections released on March 2004. The baseline supply and demand forecasts assume no change in cancer care delivery and physician practice patterns. Alternate scenarios were constructed by changing assumptions in the baseline models. Results Demand for oncology services is expected to rise rapidly, driven by the aging and growth of the population and improvements in cancer survival rates, at the same time the oncology workforce is aging and retiring in increasing numbers. Demand is expected to rise 48% between 2005 and 2020. The supply of services provided by oncologists during this time is expected to grow more slowly, approximately 14%, based on the current age distribution and practice patterns of oncologists and the number of oncology fellowship positions. This translates into a shortage of 9.4 to 15.0 million visits, or 2,550 to 4,080 oncologists—roughly one-quarter to one-third of the 2005 supply. The baseline projections do not include any alterations based on changes in practice patterns, service use, or cancer treatments. Various alternate scenarios were also developed to show how supply and demand might change under different assumptions. Conclusions ASCO, policy makers, and the public have major challenges ahead of them to forestall likely shortages in the capacity to meet future demand for oncology services. A multifaceted strategy will be needed to ensure that Americans have access to oncology services in 2020, as no single action will fill the likely gap between supply and demand. Among the options to consider are increasing the number of oncology fellowship positions, increasing use of nonphysician clinicians, increasing the role of primary care physicians in the care of patients in remission, and redesigning service delivery.
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Ivanova-Rohling, Violeta N. y Niklas Rohling. "Evaluating Machine Learning Approaches for Discovering Optimal Sets of Projection Operators for Quantum State Tomography of Qubit Systems". Cybernetics and Information Technologies 20, n.º 6 (1 de diciembre de 2020): 61–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/cait-2020-0061.
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Abstract Finding optimal measurement schemes in quantum state tomography is a fundamental problem in quantum computation. It is known that for non-degenerate operators the optimal measurement scheme is based on mutually unbiassed bases. This paper is a follow up from our previous work, where we use standard numerical approaches to look for optimal measurement schemes, where the measurement operators are projections on individual pure quantum states. In this paper we demonstrate the usefulness of several machine learning techniques – reinforcement learning and parallel machine learning approaches, to discover measurement schemes, which are significantly better than the ones discovered by standard numerical methods in our previous work. The high-performing quorums of projection operators we have discovered have complex structure and symmetries, which may imply that the optimal solution will possess such symmetries.
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Keshavarzian, Maryam, Sara Kamali Anaraki, Mehrzad Zamani y Ali Erfanifard. "Projections of oil demand in road transportation sector on the basis of vehicle ownership projections, worldwide: 1972–2020". Economic Modelling 29, n.º 5 (septiembre de 2012): 1979–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.06.009.
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Chugunov, Igor y Valentina Makohon. "BUDGETARY PROJECTION IN THE SYSTEM OF FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC REGULATION OF SOCIAL PROCESSES". Baltic Journal of Economic Studies 6, n.º 1 (16 de marzo de 2020): 130. http://dx.doi.org/10.30525/2256-0742/2020-6-1-130-135.
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The purpose of the article is to reveal the role of budgetary projection in the system of financial and economic regulation of social processes within the framework of improving the efficiency of fiscal policy intended to macroeconomic stability maintenance in both countries with transformational and advanced economies. The comparative and factorial methods allowed to developthe features of the institutional environment of the budgetary progection methodology, to identify approaches for its improvement. Methodology. Substantiation of the role of budget forecasting in the system of financial and economic regulation of social processes, determination of provisions for improving its methodology is based on generalized and systematic approaches that are applied in both developed and transformational economies. An analysis of the stages of the process and the budgetary projection methods evaluation, that are used in different countries, have been carried out. Results showed that the efficient budgetary projection methodology is the basis for sound fiscal policy. The development of realistic budgetary projections facilitates justified management decisions aimed at ensuring the country financial firmness. Devia-tions from budget revenues from the projected indicators do not make it possible to achieve certain fiscal policy outcomes and, accordingly, cause a budget cut. In order to develop realistic budgetary projections, a welldesigned and coherent database is needed for all time series, necessary to analyze and project budget revenues. Time series of key determinants affecting the budget revenues level should be available at different frequencies (monthly, quarterly, annually). Where data reflecting similar economic processes by different revenue sources are available, any differences between them shall be determined by reference to their coverage and methodology. Practical implications. Budgetary projections are the basis for the formation of effective fiscal policy and the benchmark of the reproduction process. Adequate level of justification for budget projection will help to provide a dynamic balance of budgetary indicators and the budgetary system stability. Institutional changes to the budgetary projection methodology should be made on the basis of taking into account the dynamic interrelation of budgetary and macroeconomic indicators. The remarkable task here is the development of an economic and mathematical model based on the assessment of the national economy capabilities by reference to the assessment of macroeconomic proportions and the corresponding social and economic conditions of social production. Value/ originality. Developing the budgetary projection approaches in the context of improvement of the fiscal policy efficiency is an important precondition for ensuring macroeconomic stability. In order to increase the budget projection justifiability, it is advisable to make institutional changes to its methodology. Based on the methioned above, the article reveals the essence and role of the budgetary projection in the system of financial and economic regulation of social processes in the context of improving the fiscal policy effectiveness aimed at macroeconomic stability maintenance; approaches to improving the budgetary projection methodology have been identified, and it has been determined that the soundness and feasibility of budgetary projection are the basis for effective fiscal policy. The predictability of budgetary criteria, budgetary architectonics contribute to improving the efficiency of transformations in the public finance system.