Literatura académica sobre el tema "Pensions Act 2004"

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Artículos de revistas sobre el tema "Pensions Act 2004"

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Papadakis, John y Rosalind Connor. "Pensions Act 2004: Effects on transactions involving UK companies". Pensions: An International Journal 11, n.º 4 (agosto de 2006): 247–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.pm.5940028.

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Byrne, Alistair, Debbie Harrison, Bill Rhodes y David Blake. "PYRRHIC VICTORY? THE UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCE OF THE PENSIONS ACT 2004". Economic Affairs 26, n.º 2 (junio de 2006): 9–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0270.2006.00625.x.

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Byrne, Alistair, Debbie Harrison, Bill Rhodes y David Blake. "Pyrrhic victory? The unintended consequence of the Pensions Act 2004". Pensions: An International Journal 12, n.º 2 (marzo de 2007): 59–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.pm.5950048.

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Moss, Rachel. "Dealing with pensions. The practical impact of the Pensions Act 2004 on mergers, acquisitions, restructurings and insolvencies". Pensions: An International Journal 12, n.º 4 (septiembre de 2007): 217–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.pm.5950058.

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Kumudha, A. "Impact of FRBM Act 2003 on Public Expenditure in India". Shanlax International Journal of Economics 12, n.º 1 (1 de diciembre de 2023): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.34293/economics.v12i1.6708.

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India is a developing nation experiencing lower socio-economic indicators, and widespread poverty and inequality exist in the economy. So, the development of the nation requires huge public expenditure in the social and infrastructure sectors. The contribution of taxes to the GDP ratio is very low in India, and the government could not meet the various public works with limited resources. In India, interest payments, defence, pensions, salaries, and subsidies are the major components of public expenditure and collectively occupy more than 60 percent of total public expenditure. The government plays a vital role in establishing a welfare society, and it has spent a huge amount on the development of the economy in various ways. Insufficient funds from the government require better utilisation of available sources of public expenditure and better management of the fiscal deficit. In 2003, the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act was enacted to maintain the fiscal deficit at 3 percent, establish financial discipline in the economy, reduce the fiscal deficit, and improve the administration of public resources. This act came into force in 2004. This study aims at understanding the trends and growth rate of public expenditure in India. The study found that after implementing the FRBM Act 2003 in India, the ACGR of subsidies, loans, advances, and capital outlays has increased, which is conducive to enhancing economic development.
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Appiah, Prince Ofosu. "The National Pensions Act, 2008 (Act 766) and Challeges of Pension Fund Administration in Ghana". Feb-Mar 2023, n.º 32 (21 de febrero de 2023): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.55529/jls.32.1.12.

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The recent reformation in Ghana’s pensions space introduced the three-tier pension scheme underpinned by the National Pensions Act, 2008 (Act766) under the regulatory authority of the NPRA. Seeking to redress inherent challenges, the transformational shift effected by the former yielded the incorporation of private sector through inclusion of approved corporate trustees, fund managers, fund custodians and other service providers. However, despite the new scheme’s attenuation of key lapses and challenges of the previous regime, there still exist predicaments that are reflective of the later. By employing secondary and other forms of empirical data, this research explores significant shortfalls observed in the management of various schemes (DB and DC) intertwined with sections of the Act 766 that require reconsideration. The upshot of this research reveals the retarded performance of the Defined Benefit Scheme as opposed to the stupendous attainments of the Defined Contributory Scheme. Findings pertaining to inadequate coverage of schemes, perceived bureaucracy, payment of benefits, monthly remittances, and defaulted employers as well as exclusions from the three-tier pension scheme, suggest that extra work must be embarked on to make pension delivery effective and efficient. The paper therefore proposes rudimentary review of certain controversial provisions under the Act 766 coupled with strict adherence to various guidelines pertaining to the regulatory and administrative functions of stakeholders.
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Aransiola, Temidayo James, Daniella Cavalcanti, José Alejandro Ordoñez, Philipp Hessel, Ana L. Moncayo, Carlos Chivardi, Alberto Sironi et al. "Current and Projected Mortality and Hospitalization Rates Associated With Conditional Cash Transfer, Social Pension, and Primary Health Care Programs in Brazil, 2000-2030". JAMA Network Open 7, n.º 4 (22 de abril de 2024): e247519. http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.7519.

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ImportanceThe health outcomes of increased poverty and inequalities in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have been substantially amplified as a consequence of converging multiple crises. Brazil has some of the world’s largest conditional cash transfer (Programa Bolsa Família [PBF]), social pension (Beneficio de Prestacão Continuada [BPC]), and primary health care (Estratégia de Saúde da Família [ESF]) programs that could act as mitigating interventions during the current polycrisis era of increasing poverty, slow or contracting economic growth, and conflicts.ObjectiveTo evaluate the combined association of the Brazilian conditional cash transfer, social pension, and primary health care programs with the reduction of morbidity and mortality over the last 2 decades and forecast their potential mitigation of the current global polycrisis and beyond.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis cohort study used a longitudinal ecological design with multivariable negative binomial regression models (adjusted for relevant socioeconomic, demographic, and health care variables) integrating the retrospective analysis from 2000 to 2019, with dynamic microsimulation models to forecast potential child mortality scenarios up to 2030. Participants included a cohort of 2548 Brazilian municipalities from 2004 to 2019, projected from 2020 to 2030. Data analysis was performed from September 2022 to February 2023.ExposurePBF coverage of the target population (those who were poorest) was categorized into 4 levels: low (0%-29.9%), intermediate (30.0%-69.9%), high (70.0%-99.9%), and consolidated (≥100%). ESF coverage was categorized as null (0), low (0.1%-29.9%), intermediate (30.0%-69.9%), and consolidated (70.0%-100%). BPC coverage was categorized by terciles.Main outcomes and measuresAge-standardized, all-cause mortality and hospitalization rates calculated for the entire population and by age group (<5 years, 5-29 years, 30-69 years, and ≥70 years).ResultsAmong the 2548 Brazilian municipalities studied from 2004 to 2019, the mean (SD) age-standardized mortality rate decreased by 16.64% (from 6.73 [1.14] to 5.61 [0.94] deaths per 1000 population). Consolidated coverages of social welfare programs studied were all associated with reductions in overall mortality rates (PBF: rate ratio [RR], 0.95 [95% CI, 0.94-0.96]; ESF: RR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.93-0.94]; BPC: RR, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.91-0.92]), having all together prevented an estimated 1 462 626 (95% CI, 1 332 128-1 596 924) deaths over the period 2004 to 2019. The results were higher on mortality for the group younger than age 5 years (PBF: RR, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.85-0.90]; ESF: RR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.87-0.93]; BPC: RR, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.82-0.86]), on mortality for the group aged 70 years and older, and on hospitalizations. Considering a shorter scenario of economic crisis, a mitigation strategy that will increase the coverage of PBF, BPC, and ESF to proportionally cover the newly poor and at-risk individuals was projected to avert 1 305 359 (95% CI, 1 163 659-1 449 256) deaths and 6 593 224 (95% CI, 5 534 591-7 651 327) hospitalizations up to 2030, compared with fiscal austerity scenarios that would reduce the coverage of these interventions.Conclusions and relevanceThis cohort study’s results suggest that combined expansion of conditional cash transfers, social pensions, and primary health care should be considered a viable strategy to mitigate the adverse health outcomes of the current global polycrisis in LMICs, whereas the implementation of fiscal austerity measures could result in large numbers of preventable deaths.
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Siraj, Fauzan Arif. "Analisis Perhitungan, Pemotongan, Penyetoran dan Pelaporan Pajak Penghasilan (PPh) Pasal 21 Atas Penerima Pensiun pada PT Taspen (Persero) Cabang Surakarta". Duconomics Sci-meet (Education & Economics Science Meet) 1 (27 de julio de 2021): 54–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.37010/duconomics.v1.5402.

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Income Tax is a tax levied on the object of tax on his income. Income tax will always be imposed on people or business entities earning income in Indonesia. The tax applicable to employees and pension recipients is Income Tax Article 21. The subject of Article 21 of the Act in particular concerning pensions and Article 21 in particular about pensions is pensions themselves. Therefore, participants who receive pension contributions are Taxpayers PPh Article 21. This study aims to find out the calculation, deduction, deposit and reporting of Income Tax Article 21 at PT Taspen (Persero) Surakarta Branch whether it is in accordance with Law No. 36 of 2008 and the Law on penile funds. The object of this research was taken at PT Taspen (Persero) Surakarta Branch. The research method used is descriptive analysis method. The results of the research obtained are the mechanism of Income Tax article 21 on periodic pension recipients at PT Taspen (Persero) Surakarta Branch in accordance with Law No. 36 of 2008 and Regulation of the Director General of Taxation No. PER-16/PJ/2016. The tax calculation for pension recipients is still three people who are not suitable.
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Lynch, Julia y Mikko Myrskylä. "Always the Third Rail?" Comparative Political Studies 42, n.º 8 (18 de marzo de 2009): 1068–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414009331722.

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Social transfer programs are thought to generate beneficiary groups who will act politically to defend “their” programs from retrenchment. But little empirical research has been conducted to either verify or disconfirm the micro foundations of this hypothesis, which lies at the heart of the “new social risks” thesis as well as many economic analyses of welfare state politics. This article tests empirically whether benefiting from public pensions leads individuals to greater support of the pension system status quo, net of other factors. It uses cross—data set imputation to combine cross-nationally comparable individual-level data on income from public pensions with political attitudes toward proposed pension reforms. The hypothesis that public pension systems create policy feedbacks of self-interested beneficiaries supporting further pension spending is not supported in any of 11 European countries in either 1992 or 2001.
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Olurankinse. "Pension Reform Act 2004: An Overview". Journal of Social Sciences 6, n.º 2 (1 de febrero de 2010): 179–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.3844/jssp.2010.179.185.

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Libros sobre el tema "Pensions Act 2004"

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Britain, Great. Pensions Act 2004: Elizabeth II. 2004. Chapter 35. London: Stationery Office, 2004.

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Martin, Jenkins, ed. Blackstone's guide to the Pensions Act 2004. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005.

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Britain, Great. Armed Forces (Pensions and Compensation) Act 2004: Elizabeth II. 2004. Chapter 32. London: Stationery Office, 2004.

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Ure, Alec. Tolley's guide to the Pensions Act 2004: A complete update of law and practice. London: LexisNexis Butterworths, 2006.

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Odulana, Femi O. Pension reforms in Nigeria: A guide to implementation and operation of the Pension Reform Act 2004. [Lagos, Nigeria]: Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, 2007.

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Affairs, United States Congress Senate Committee on Veterans'. Veterans Compensation Cost-of-living Adjustment Act of 2004: Report (to accompany 2483). [Washington, D.C: U.S. G.P.O., 2004.

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United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Veterans' Affairs. Veterans Compensation Cost-of-living Adjustment Act of 2004: Report (to accompany 2483). [Washington, D.C: U.S. G.P.O., 2004.

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United States. Congress. Joint Committee on Taxation, ed. Technical explanation of the tax and pension provisions of H.R. 3108, the "Pension Stability Act," as passed by the Senate on January 28, 2004. [Washington, D.C: U.S. G.P.O., 2004.

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United States. Congress. House. Committee on Veterans' Affairs. Servicemembers and Veterans Legal Protections Act of 2004: Report (to accompany H.R. 4658) (including cost estimate by the Congressional Budget Office). [Washington, D.C: U.S. G.P.O., 2004.

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United States. Congress. House. Committee on Veterans' Affairs. Servicemembers and Veterans Legal Protections Act of 2004: Report (to accompany H.R. 4658) (including cost estimate by the Congressional Budget Office). [Washington, D.C: U.S. G.P.O., 2004.

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Capítulos de libros sobre el tema "Pensions Act 2004"

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Burton, Frances. "Pensions Act 2008 (2008 c. 30)". En Core Statutes on Family Law, 303. London: Macmillan Education UK, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-137-54510-7_65.

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O'Dea, Geoff. "Pensions". En Restructuring Plans, Creditor Schemes, and other Restructuring Tools, 657–66. Oxford University Press, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198844747.003.0016.

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This chapter considers the powers of the Pensions Regulator under the Pensions Act 2004 and the Pension Schemes Act 2021 in relation to pension schemes in deficit. The chapter summarizes the Pensions Regulator’s moral hazard powers and the criteria to be satisfied for the issuance of a contribution notice and/or a financial support direction. The chapter sets out the new powers granted to the Pensions Regulator under the Pension Schemes Act 2021 and the extent of the new criminal and civil penalties. The chapter also considers the extension of the notifiable events and likely effect of this on restructurings and corporate transactions. The chapter sets out the key provisions of the Pensions Regulator’s draft guidance on its approach to investigating and prosecuting the new criminal offences. Also, the chapter considers the position of the Pensions Regulator and the Pension Protection Fund following the proposal of a restructuring plan.
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Wynn-Evans, Charles. "Pensions". En The Law of TUPE Transfers, 457–80. Oxford University Press, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780192843517.003.0011.

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This chapter addresses the specific treatment of pension entitlements in the context of transfers falling within the scope of TUPE. After considering the concept of occupational pension schemes, the chapter discusses the extent to which occupational pension scheme entitlements are excluded from the rights which transferring employees retain after transfer including discussion of the Beckman and Martin cases. After consideration of the issues that can arise in relation to communications with those entitled to pensions, the chapter concludes with detailed discussion of the minimum pension obligations that the Pensions Act 2004 and the Pension Protection Regulations 2005 require transferees to put in place after a transfer for those employees who transfer to their employment under TUPE.
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"Pensions legislation: Moral hazard provisions of the Pensions Act 2004". En Connected and Associated: Insolvency and Pensions Law. Bloomsbury Professional, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.5040/9781526519627.ch-014.

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Henry, Legge KC y Robinson Thomas. "Pension Schemes". En Company Directors. Oxford University Press, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/law/9780192842879.003.0029.

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This chapter provides an overview of pension schemes. It looks into the nature of the liability of employers under a defined benefit scheme in line with the establishment of the Pensions Act 2004. If the employer is unable to meet its liabilities to the scheme, the deficit could mean that the members of the scheme might not receive the benefits to which they are entitled under the scheme. The Pensions Act 2004 imposes an obligation on corporate trustees to ensure that each individual exercising any function of the company as trustee of the scheme is conversant. The chapter cites the powers of the regulator and its impact on directors.
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Hyams, Oliver. "Pension Rights Where There Is A Tupe Transfer". En Employment Aspects of Business Reorganisations, 177–82. Oxford University PressOxford, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780199271191.003.0009.

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Abstract This chapter is mainly concerned with the obligations of a TUPE transferee in relation to the pensions (if any) of employees who transfer to the transferee’s employment under the TUPE transfer in question. The position in that regard is now governed by sections 257 and 258 of the Pensions Act 2004 and the Transfer of Employment (Pension Protection) Regulations 2005. Until those provisions were enacted, there was no obligation imposed on a TUPE transferee to provide any sort of pension for transferred employees. The only means by which it could credibly be argued that there was such an obligation was by relying on the predecessor to regulation 4(9) of TUPE. Now, such reliance is specifically precluded, by regulation 10(3) of TUPE.
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Blake, David. "The State Second Pension Scheme and its Predecessors". En Pension Schemes And Pension Funds In The United Kingdom, 79–93. Oxford University PressOxford, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780199243532.003.0005.

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Abstract Second-tier or supplementary state pensions have been provided in the UK since 1961. They are known as the additional state pension and are paid by the Pensions Service of the Department of Work and Pensions (DWP). The state second pension (S2P) scheme was established by the secretary of state for social security (Alistair Darling) in the Welfare Reform and Pensions Act 1999 and the Child Support, Pensions and Social Security Act 2000 (following the 1998 green paper A New Contract for Welfare: Partnership in Pensions), and came into operation on 6 April 2002.
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"Pension Reforms and Private Pensions". En OECD Pensions at a Glance, 55–93. OECD, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/pension_glance-2007-4-en.

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Ayliffe, James. "Pensions (Bankruptcy Only)". En Transaction Avoidance in Insolvencies. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198793403.003.0017.

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A category of asset that requires separate consideration is the debtor’s pension. A need for transaction avoidance may arise here if the bankrupt has made excessive contributions to his pension in a bid to deprive creditors of these sums. Although formerly a problem, due to the inadequacy of existing avoidance provisions, case law developments meant that such tactics by the bankrupt were to no avail. This area of law is now primarily governed by the Welfare Reform and Pensions Act 1999, the material parts of which came into force on various dates, the earliest being 29 May 2000. Provisions of this Act dictate that the debtor’s entitlements under approved pension arrangements do not form part of the debtor’s estate in bankruptcy. Rights under pension schemes that are not approved are also exempted by regulation. In each of these cases the trustee is, however, able to apply for an order to set aside any excessive pension funding. Relevant case law principles will still govern the affairs of those who were adjudged bankrupt prior to 29 May 2000, and so they are considered in this chapter also. A diagram explaining the various applicable rules appears at the end of the chapter.
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"Voluntary, Occupational Pensions". En OECD Pensions at a Glance 2005, 191–92. OECD, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/pension_glance-2005-44-en.

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Informes sobre el tema "Pensions Act 2004"

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Calderón, Valentina y Ioana Marinescu. The Impact of Colombia's Pension and Health Insurance Systems on Informality. Inter-American Development Bank, marzo de 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0011360.

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This paper examines how changes in the legislation governing health and pension benefits that took place between 2003 and 2008 in Colombia affected the informal and formal labor markets. In particular, this paper examines two major changes in the legislation. First, it looks at the effects of imposing the requirement to use the same base income to contribute to both health insurance and pensions for independent workers using a difference-in-differences strategy. Second, this document addresses the effects of unifying health and pension system payments, which required employers to make contributions to these two plans through a unified payment system, making it more difficult to contribute differently to the one plan versus the other. The results presented in this paper suggest that this reform increased both full formality and full informality, but with larger positive effects on full formality.
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Doorley, Karina y Dora Tuda. Increasing Pay Related Social Insurance to fund the State Pension: Incidence and effectiveness. ESRI, junio de 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.26504/bp202501.

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Demographic change is putting pressure on the sustainability of State Pension systems in many developed countries. In Ireland, there have been recent calls to reform the system of contributions and/or increase the State Pension age in order to avoid significant shortfalls in the Social Insurance Fund (SIF), out of which the State Pension is paid. The Government of Ireland has committed to retaining the State Pension age at 66. In order to achieve this and maintain the viability of the SIF, it has also committed to increasing social security contributions through the Roadmap of Increases to Pay Related Social Insurance (PRSI), which will occur between 2024 and 2028. Using SWITCH, the ESRI’s microsimulation model for Ireland, this paper assesses the consequences of these planned reforms, focussing on the amount of revenue they will raise, on the distribution of income and on financial incentives to work. Our analysis shows that the reforms proposed by the Roadmap will result in revenue gains of €1.6 billion per annum by 2028. The reforms are progressive in nature, affecting high income households by more than low-income households. They affect men by slightly more than women due to their higher labour market participation. Across age-cohorts, the incomes of those aged 25-54 are estimated decrease the most. We estimate that the reforms will increase poverty rates slightly, particularly the child poverty rate. The proposed reforms slightly decrease the financial incentive to work, particularly for those in low-income households. We argue that further reform will be needed beyond 2028 to ensure the continued viability of the SIF, and suggest that policymakers may wish to consider some of the more structural reforms to PRSI and the SIF proposed by the Commission on Taxation and Welfare, the Commission on Pensions and the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council.
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Kakoulidou, Theano, Claire Keane y Simona Sándorová. State Contributory Pension reform: Winners and losers. Evidence from the Irish Longitudinal Study of Ageing. ESRI, junio de 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.26504/bp202502.

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The Yearly Average Method used in calculating State Contributory Pension entitlements has been criticised for creating anomalies, particularly for women. It has been announced that from 2034 onwards, entitlements will be based fully on the new Total Contributions Approach. This paper examines the impact of this move, examining who will gain or lose from this change. Overall, we find little change in the average weekly pension rate with a slight fall for men and no change for women. These average changes mask gains and losses for some; around 14 per cent of women and 12 per cent of men will face a loss under the Total Contributions Approach while 5 per cent of men and 30 per cent of women will see a gain. More women will qualify for the maximum pension rate under the Total Contributions Approach due to the removal of anomalies associated with the Yearly Average Method. On average, losses are very small, less than 1 per cent of pension income, but will be largest at the bottom end of the income distribution.
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Morón, Eduardo, Edgar Salgado y Cristhian Seminario. Financial Dependence, Formal Credit and Firm Informality: Evidence from Peruvian Household Data. Inter-American Development Bank, mayo de 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0011384.

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This paper examines the link between financial deepening and formalization in Peru. Using data from the National Household Survey, Bloomberg and the Central Bank of Peru Central Bank, the Catão, Pagés, and Rosales (2009) model is implemented at activity level (2-digits ISIC), and the Rajan and Zingales (1998) approach of sectors' dependence on external funds is followed. The sample is divided into three firm size categories, and two formality measures are assessed. Using the accounting books specification, robust results are obtained, supporting a significant and positive effect of credit growth on formalization only for the self-employment firms category. Alternatively, using the pension enrollment specification, the channel is found positively significant only for firms with more than 10 workers; there is a smaller effect for firms with 2-10 workers. There is also a significant between effect, explaining the transition from small firms to larger firms due to greater credit availability.
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An Innovative Scheme Brings Housing to Colombian Public Employees and Pensioners. Inter-American Development Bank, enero de 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0006284.

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Almost 90 percent of adult Colombians have never had access to credit from a formal financial institution. Public employees like police officers, teachers, soldiers, and clerks encounter difficulties when accessing bank credit despite their formal employment. With low salaries, they struggle to make ends meet and face the same problems accessing credit as others living at the base of the pyramid: insufficient credit history, no collateral, and the perception that lending to them is too risky.Bayport Colombia S.A.S. is a non-bank financial intermediary that specializes in loans repayable via payroll deduction for base of the pyramid (BOP) employees in rural areas of Colombia. Founded in 2007 as FiMSA S.A.S., the firm became a subsidiary in 2011 of Bayport Management Limited, a South-African company with a presence in eight countries in Africa and 15 years of experience in areas with low levels of financial inclusion.
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Monetary Policy Report - January 2023. Banco de la República, junio de 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr1-2023.

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1. Macroeconomic Summary In December, headline inflation (13.1%) and the average of the core inflation measures (10.3%) continued to trend upward, posting higher rates than those estimated by the Central Bank's technical staff and surpassing the market average. Inflation expectations for all terms exceeded the 3.0% target. In that month, every major group in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered higher-than-estimated increases, and the diffusion indicators continued to show generalized price hikes. Accumulated exchange rate pressures on prices, indexation to high inflation rates, and several food supply shocks would explain, in part, the acceleration in inflation. All of this is in a context of significant surplus demand, a tight labor market, and inflation expectations at different terms that exceed the 3.0% target. Compared to the October edition of the Monetary Policy Report, the forecast path for headline and core inflation (excluding food and regulated items: EFR) increased (Graphs 1.1 and 1.2), reflecting heightened accumulated exchange rate pressures, price indexation to a higher inflation rate (CPI and the producer price index: PPI), and the rise in labor costs attributed to a larger-than-estimated adjustment in the minimum wage. Nevertheless, headline inflation is expected to begin to ease by early 2023, although from a higher level than had been estimated in October. This would be supported initially by the slowdown forecast for the food CPI due to a high base of comparison, the end anticipated for the shocks that have affected the prices of these products, and the estimated improvement in external and domestic supply in this sector. In turn, the deterioration in real household income because of high inflation and the end of the effects of pent-up demand, plus tighter external and domestic financial conditions would contribute to diluting surplus demand in 2023 and reducing inflation. By the end of 2023, both headline and core (EFR) inflation would reach 8.7% and would be 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively, by December 2024. These forecasts are subject to a great deal of uncertainty, especially concerning the future behavior of international financial conditions, the evolution of the exchange rate, the pace of adjustment in domestic demand, the extent of indexation of nominal contracts, and the decisions taken regarding the domestic price of fuel and electricity. In the third quarter, economic activity surprised again on the upside and the growth projection for 2022 rose to 8.0% (previously 7.9%). However, it declined to 0.2% for 2023 (previously 0.5%). With this, surplus demand continues to be significant and is still expected to weaken during the current year. Annual economic growth in the third quarter (7.1 % SCA)1 was higher than estimated in October (6.4 % SCA), given stronger domestic demand specifically because of higher-than-expected investment. Private consumption fell from the high level witnessed a quarter earlier and net exports registered a more negative contribution than anticipated. For the fourth quarter, economic activity indicators suggest that gross domestic product (GDP) would have remained high and at a level similar to that observed in the third quarter, with an annual variation of 4.1%. Domestic demand would have slowed in annual terms, although at levels that would have remained above those for output, mainly because of considerable private consumption. Investment would have declined slightly to a value like the average observed in 2019. The real trade deficit would have decreased due to a drop in imports that was more pronounced than the estimated decline in exports. On the forecast horizon, consumption is expected to decline from current elevated levels, partly because of tighter domestic financial conditions and a deterioration in real income due to high inflation. Investment would also weaken and return to levels below those seen before the pandemic. In real terms, the trade deficit would narrow due to a lower momentum projection for domestic demand and higher cumulative real depreciation. In sum, economic growth for all of 2022, 2023, and 2024 would stand at 8.0%, 0.2% and 1.0%, respectively (Graph 1.3). Surplus demand remains high (as measured by the output gap) and is expected to decline in 2023 and could turn negative in 2024 (Graph 1.4). Although the macroeconomic forecast includes a marked slowdown in the economy, an even greater adjustment in domestic absorption cannot be ruled out due to the cumulative effects of tighter external and domestic financial conditions, among other reasons. These estimates continue to be subject to a high degree of uncertainty, which is associated with factors such as global political tensions, changes in international interest rates and their effects on external demand, global risk aversion, the effects of the approved tax reform, the possible impact of reforms announced for this year (pension, health, and labor reforms, among others), and future measures regarding hydrocarbon production. In 2022, the current account deficit would have been high (6.3 % of GDP), but it would be corrected significantly in 2023 (to 3.9 % of GDP) given the expected slowdown in domestic demand. Despite favorable terms of trade, the high external imbalance that would occur during 2022 would be largely due to domestic demand growth, cost pressures associated with high freight rates, higher external debt service payments, and good performance in terms of the profits of foreign companies.2 By 2023, the adjustment in domestic demand would be reflected in a smaller current account deficit especially due to fewer imports, a global moderation in prices and cost pressures, and a reduction in profits remitted abroad by companies with foreign direct investment (FDI) focused on the local market. Despite this anticipated correction in the external imbalance, its level as a percentage of GDP would remain high in the context of tight financial conditions. In the world's main economies, inflation forecasts and expectations point to a reduction by 2023, but at levels that still exceed their central banks' targets. The path anticipated for the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate increased and the forecast for global growth continues to be moderate. In the fourth quarter of 2022, logistics costs and international prices for some foods, oil and energy declined from elevated levels, bringing downward pressure to bear on global inflation. Meanwhile, the higher cost of financing, the loss of real income due to high levels of global inflation, and the persistence of the war in Ukraine, among other factors, have contributed to the reduction in global economic growth forecasts. In the United States, inflation turned out to be lower than estimated and the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the growth forecast for 2023. Nevertheless, the actual level of inflation in that country, its forecasts, and expectations exceed the target. Also, the labor market remains tight, and fiscal policy is still expansionary. In this environment, the Fed raised the expected path for policy interest rates and, with this, the market average estimates higher levels for 2023 than those forecast in October. In the region's emerging economies, country risk premia declined during the quarter and the currencies of those countries appreciated against the US dollar. Considering all the above, for the current year, the Central Bank's technical staff increased the path estimated for the Fed's interest rate, reduced the forecast for growth in the country's external demand, lowered the expected path of oil prices, and kept the country’s risk premium assumption high, but at somewhat lower levels than those anticipated in the previous Monetary Policy Report. Moreover, accumulated inflationary pressures originating from the behavior of the exchange rate would continue to be important. External financial conditions facing the economy have improved recently and could be associated with a more favorable international context for the Colombian economy. So far this year, there has been a reduction in long-term bond interest rates in the markets of developed countries and an increase in the prices of risky assets, such as stocks. This would be associated with a faster-than-expected reduction in inflation in the United States and Europe, which would allow for a less restrictive course for monetary policy in those regions. In this context, the risks of a global recession have been reduced and the global appetite for risk has increased. Consequently, the risk premium continues to decline, the Colombian peso has appreciated significantly, and TES interest rates have decreased. Should this trend consolidate, exchange rate inflationary pressures could be less than what was incorporated into the macroeconomic forecast. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their impact on the country remains high, given the unpredictable course of the war in Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, local uncertainty, and the extensive financing needs of the Colombian government and the economy. High inflation with forecasts and expectations above 3.0%, coupled with surplus demand and a tight labor market are compatible with a contractionary stance on monetary policy that is conducive to the macroeconomic adjustment needed to mitigate the risk of de-anchoring inflation expectations and to ensure that inflation converges to the target. Compared to the forecasts in the October edition of the Monetary Policy Report, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed level of output exceeding the productive capacity of the economy. In this context of surplus demand, headline and core inflation continued to trend upward and posted surprising increases. Observed and expected international interest rates increased, the country’s risk premia lessened (but remains at high levels), and accumulated exchange rate pressures are still significant. The technical staff's inflation forecast for 2023 increased and inflation expectations remain well above 3.0%. All in all, the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored persists, which would accentuate the generalized indexation process and push inflation even further away from the target. This macroeconomic context requires consolidating a contractionary monetary policy stance that aims to meet the inflation target within the forecast horizon and bring the economy's output to levels closer to its potential. 1.2 Monetary Policy Decision At its meetings in December 2022 and January 2023, Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR) agreed to continue the process of normalizing monetary policy. In December, the BDBR decided by a majority vote to increase the monetary policy interest rate by 100 basis points (bps) and in its January meeting by 75 bps, bringing it to 12.75% (Graph 1.5). 1/ Seasonally and calendar adjusted. 2/ In the current account aggregate, the pressures for a higher external deficit come from those companies with FDI that are focused on the domestic market. In contrast, profits in the mining and energy sectors are more than offset by the external revenue they generate through exports. Box 1 - Electricity Rates: Recent Developments and Indexation. Author: Édgar Caicedo García, Pablo Montealegre Moreno and Álex Fernando Pérez Libreros Box 2 - Indicators of Household Indebtedness. Author: Camilo Gómez y Juan Sebastián Mariño
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