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Artículos de revistas sobre el tema "Multiple climate"

Autor: Grafiati

Publicado: 11 de marzo de 2023

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1

Ferreira, David, John Marshall y Brian Rose. "Climate Determinism Revisited: Multiple Equilibria in a Complex Climate Model". Journal of Climate 24, n.º 4 (15 de febrero de 2011): 992–1012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010jcli3580.1.

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Abstract Multiple equilibria in a coupled ocean–atmosphere–sea ice general circulation model (GCM) of an aquaplanet with many degrees of freedom are studied. Three different stable states are found for exactly the same set of parameters and external forcings: a cold state in which a polar sea ice cap extends into the midlatitudes; a warm state, which is ice free; and a completely sea ice–covered “snowball” state. Although low-order energy balance models of the climate are known to exhibit intransitivity (i.e., more than one climate state for a given set of governing equations), the results reported here are the first to demonstrate that this is a property of a complex coupled climate model with a consistent set of equations representing the 3D dynamics of the ocean and atmosphere. The coupled model notably includes atmospheric synoptic systems, large-scale circulation of the ocean, a fully active hydrological cycle, sea ice, and a seasonal cycle. There are no flux adjustments, with the system being solely forced by incoming solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere. It is demonstrated that the multiple equilibria owe their existence to the presence of meridional structure in ocean heat transport: namely, a large heat transport out of the tropics and a relatively weak high-latitude transport. The associated large midlatitude convergence of ocean heat transport leads to a preferred latitude at which the sea ice edge can rest. The mechanism operates in two very different ocean circulation regimes, suggesting that the stabilization of the large ice cap could be a robust feature of the climate system. Finally, the role of ocean heat convergence in permitting multiple equilibria is further explored in simpler models: an atmospheric GCM coupled to a slab mixed layer ocean and an energy balance model.

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2

Bouchal, Johannes Martin, Tuncay Hüseyin Güner y Thomas Denk. "Middle Miocene climate of southwestern Anatolia from multiple botanical proxies". Climate of the Past 14, n.º 10 (17 de octubre de 2018): 1427–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1427-2018.

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Abstract. The middle Miocene climate transition (MMCT) was a phase of global cooling possibly linked to decreasing levels of atmospheric CO2. The MMCT coincided with the European Mammal Faunal Zone MN6. From this time, important biogeographic links between Anatolia and eastern Africa include the hominid Kenyapithecus. Vertebrate fossils suggested mixed open and forested landscapes under (sub)tropical seasonal climates for Anatolia. Here, we infer the palaeoclimate during the MMCT and the succeeding cooling phase for a middle Miocene (14.8–13.2 Ma) intramontane basin in southwestern Anatolia using three palaeobotanical proxies: (i) Köppen signatures based on the nearest living-relative principle; (ii) leaf physiognomy analysed with the Climate Leaf Analysis Multivariate Program (CLAMP); (iii) genus-level biogeographic affinities of fossil flora with modern regions. The three proxies reject tropical and hot subtropical climates for the MMCT of southwestern Anatolia and instead infer mild warm temperate C climates. Köppen signatures reject summer-dry Cs climates but cannot discriminate between fully humid Cf and winter-dry Cw; CLAMP reconstructs Cf climate based on the low X3.wet∕X3.dry ratio. Additionally, we assess whether the palaeobotanical record resolves transitions from the warm Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO, 16.8–14.7 Ma) to the MMCT (14.7–13.9 Ma), and a more pronounced cooling at 13.9–13.8 Ma, as reconstructed from benthic stable isotope data. For southwestern Anatolia, we find that arboreal taxa predominate in MCO flora (MN5), whereas in MMCT flora (MN6) abundances of arboreal and non-arboreal elements strongly fluctuate, indicating higher structural complexity of the vegetation. Our data show a distinct pollen zone between MN6 and MN7+8 dominated by herbaceous taxa. The boundary between MN6 and MN7+8, roughly corresponding to a first abrupt cooling at 13.9–13.8 Ma, might be associated with this herb-rich pollen zone.

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3

Shinoda, Masato, Troy Sternberg y Banzragch Nandintsetseg. "Multiple climate hazards in Eurasian drylands". Natural Hazards 92, S1 (noviembre de 2018): 1–2. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3516-4.

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4

Tien Thanh, Nguyen. "A Proposal to Evaluate Drought Characteristics Using Multiple Climate Models for Multiple Timescales". Climate 6, n.º 4 (26 de septiembre de 2018): 79. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli6040079.

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This study presents a method to investigate meteorological drought characteristics using multiple climate models for multiple timescales under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, during 2021–2050. The methods of delta change factor, unequal weights, standardized precipitation index, Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope are proposed and applied with the main purpose of reducing uncertainty in climate projections and detection of the projection trends in meteorological drought. Climate simulations of three regional climate models driven by four global climate models are used to estimate weights for each run on the basic of rank sum. The reliability is then assessed by comparing a weighted ensemble climate output with observations during 1989–2008. Timescales of 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months are considered to calculate the standardized precipitation index, taking the Vu Gia-Thu Bon (VG-TB) as a pilot basin. The results show efficient precipitation simulations using unequal weights. In the same timescales, the occurrence of moderately wet events is smaller than that of moderately dry events under the RCP4.5 scenario during 2021–2050. Events classified as “extremely wet”, “extremely dry”, “very wet” and “severely dry” are expected to rarely occur under the RCP8.5 scenario.

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5

Oo, Han Thi, Win Win Zin y Cho Cho Thin Kyi. "Assessment of Future Climate Change Projections Using Multiple Global Climate Models". Civil Engineering Journal 5, n.º 10 (7 de octubre de 2019): 2152–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.28991/cej-2019-03091401.

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Nowadays, the hydrological cycle which alters river discharge and water availability is affected by climate change. Therefore, the understanding of climate change is curial for the security of hydrologic conditions of river basins. The main purpose of this study is to assess the projections of future climate across the Upper Ayeyarwady river basin for its sustainable development and management of water sector for this area. Global Ten climate Models available from CMIP5 represented by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report were bias corrected using linear scaling method to generate the model error. Among the GCMs, a suitable climate model for each station is selected based on the results of performance indicators (R2 and RMSE). Future climate data are projected based on the selected suitable climate models by using future climate scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. According to this study, future projection indicates to increase in precipitation amounts in the rainy and winter season and diminishes in summer season under all future scenarios. Based on the seasonal temperature changes analysis for all stations, the future temperature are predicted to steadily increase with higher rates during summer than the other two seasons and it can also be concluded that the monthly minimum temperature rise is a bit larger than the maximum temperature rise in all seasons.

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6

Varzinczak, Luiz H., Mauricio O. Moura y Fernando C. Passos. "Shifts to multiple optima underlie climatic niche evolution in New World phyllostomid bats". Biological Journal of the Linnean Society 128, n.º 4 (22 de octubre de 2019): 1008–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/biolinnean/blz123.

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Abstract Climate underlies species distribution patterns, especially in species where climate limits distributions, such as the phyllostomid bats, which are mostly restricted to the New World tropics. The evolutionary dynamics that shaped phyllostomid climatic niches remain unclear, and a broad phylogenetic perspective is required to uncover their patterns. We used geographical distributions and evolutionary relationships of 130 species, climate data and phylogenetic comparative methods to uncover dynamics of phyllostomid climatic niche evolution. Diversification of climatic niches began early in phyllostomid evolution (~34 Mya), with most changes taking place ~20 Mya. Although most of these bats were found in tropical regions, shifts towards different evolutionary optima were common. Shifts were mostly towards temperate climates, reflecting complexities in phyllostomid evolution highlighted by the probable role of species-specific adaptations to cope with these climates, the influence of palaeoclimatic events, and biogeographical effects related to the evolution and dispersal of clades in the New World. Our results broaden our understanding of the relationships between phyllostomid bats and climate, filling an important gap in knowledge and suggesting a complex evolution in their occupation of the climatic niche space.

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7

García-Buades, María Esther, Carmen Ramis-Palmer y María Antonia Manassero-Mas. "Climate for innovation, performance, and job satisfaction of local police in Spain". Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies & Management 38, n.º 4 (16 de noviembre de 2015): 722–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/pijpsm-02-2015-0019.

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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the extent to which climate for innovation, supportive climate, and rules climate influence job performance and satisfaction of local police (LP) officers in Spain. By integrating multiple climates simultaneously into a single study the authors assess the added value of climate for innovation. Design/methodology/approach – Participants included 175 LP officers who completed a questionnaire including measures of climate (FOCUS-93), job satisfaction, and perceived performance. Findings – Multiple regression analyses showed that developing a climate for innovation has a positive impact on police satisfaction and perceived performance beyond that of well-established climates. Climate for innovation emerges as the main predictor of job satisfaction, while it provides a small, significant increment of explained variance in perceived performance. Practical implications – Policy makers should enable participation of officers in the innovating process, thus improving the quality of change and creating a better work environment. Originality/value – Building on the competing values framework (Quinn and Rohrbaugh, 1983), this research is a contribution towards understanding how different climate types combine and relate to each other to account for officers’ behaviours and outcomes.

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8

Todd, Chelsea. "Climate Control". Consumer Electronics Test & Development 2022, n.º 2 (octubre de 2022): 46–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.12968/s2754-7744(23)70108-5.

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Sunlight, heat and moisture can damage consumer electronics products in multiple ways, but with a well-designed testing program these risks can be detected, mitigated and even prevented, says Atlas Material Testing.

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9

Mann, M. E. "CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION: The Value of Multiple Proxies". Science 297, n.º 5586 (30 de agosto de 2002): 1481–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1074318.

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10

North, Gerald R. "Multiple solutions in energy balance climate models". Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 82, n.º 3-4 (agosto de 1990): 225–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0031-0182(12)80003-4.

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11

Heffernan, C. "Climate change and multiple emerging infectious diseases". Veterinary Journal 234 (abril de 2018): 43–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tvjl.2017.12.021.

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12

Thorndike, Alan. "Multiple equilibria in a minimal climate model". Cold Regions Science and Technology 76-77 (junio de 2012): 3–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2011.03.002.

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13

Emanuel, Kerry. "A simple model of multiple climate regimes". Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 107, n.º D9 (8 de mayo de 2002): ACL 4–1—ACL 4–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2001jd001002.

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14

Stephenson, D. B., A. Hannachi y A. O'Neill. "On the existence of multiple climate regimes". Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 130, n.º 597 (31 de enero de 2004): 583–605. http://dx.doi.org/10.1256/qj.02.146.

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15

Laborde, Joyce M., William A. Dando y Merle L. Teetzen. "Climate, diffused solar radiation and multiple sclerosis". Social Science & Medicine 27, n.º 3 (enero de 1988): 231–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0277-9536(88)90126-8.

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16

North, Gerald R. "Multiple solutions in energy balance climate models". Global and Planetary Change 2, n.º 3-4 (agosto de 1990): 225–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0921-8181(90)90003-u.

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17

Nadeau, Christopher P. y Angela K. Fuller. "Accounting for multiple climate components when estimating climate change exposure and velocity". Methods in Ecology and Evolution 6, n.º 6 (21 de marzo de 2015): 697–705. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.12360.

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18

Dannenberg, Matthew P. y Erika K. Wise. "Performance of climate field reconstruction methods over multiple seasons and climate variables". Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 118, n.º 17 (6 de septiembre de 2013): 9595–610. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50765.

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19

Sham Bhat, K., Murali Haran, Roman Olson y Klaus Keller. "Inferring likelihoods and climate system characteristics from climate models and multiple tracers". Environmetrics 23, n.º 4 (25 de mayo de 2012): 345–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/env.2149.

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20

Yanagihara, Hayata, So Kazama, Tsuyoshi Tada y Yoshiya Touge. "Estimation of the effect of future changes in precipitation in Japan on pluvial flood damage and the damage reduction effect of mitigation/adaptation measures". PLOS Climate 1, n.º 7 (11 de julio de 2022): e0000039. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000039.

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This study estimated the effect of changes in the amount of precipitation associated with climate change on pluvial flood damage and the effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation measures throughout Japan. First, the cost of damage caused by pluvial flooding was calculated based on extreme rainfall, assuming a situation in which river levels are high, and rainwater does not drain into the rivers. Additionally, extreme rainfall in future climates was estimated from the output values of five general circulation models. Then, using these figures for extreme rainfall, the cost of pluvial flood damage in future climates was estimated. Improving the maintenance level of inland water drainage facilities and converting buildings to a piloti design were selected as adaptation measures. The results showed that in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, the expected annual damage cost (EADC) in the late 21st-century climate (2081–2100) scenario increases to approximately 2.3 times that of the baseline climate (1981–2000). If climate change is mitigated to RCP 2.6, the EADC in the late 21st-century climate scenario is estimated to be reduced by 28% compared to the EADC in the RCP 8.5 scenario. It is also estimated that the EADC in future climates could be kept lower than in the baseline climate by taking multiple rather than single measures. However, in the RCP 8.5 scenario for the late 21st-century climate, even if multiple adaptation measures are taken, the EADC was estimated to increase by 9% compared to the EADC in the baseline climate.

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21

Beraki, Asmerom F., Yushi Morioka, Francois A. Engelbrecht, Masami Nonaka, Marcus Thatcher, Nomkwezane Kobo y Swadhin Behera. "Examining the impact of multiple climate forcings on simulated Southern Hemisphere climate variability". Climate Dynamics 54, n.º 11-12 (27 de abril de 2020): 4775–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05253-y.

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22

Park, Changyong, Seung-Ki Min, Donghyun Lee, Dong-Hyun Cha, Myoung-Seok Suh, Hyun-Suk Kang, Song-You Hong et al. "Evaluation of multiple regional climate models for summer climate extremes over East Asia". Climate Dynamics 46, n.º 7-8 (25 de junio de 2015): 2469–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2713-z.

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23

Platania, Silvia, Anna Paolillo y Silvia A. Silva. "The Italian Validation of OSCI: The Organizational and Safety Climate Inventory". Safety 7, n.º 1 (16 de marzo de 2021): 22. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/safety7010022.

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Although safety climate has been the object of multiple studies in the last thirty years, the relationship between safety climate and organizational climate has been scarcely investigated. The Organizational and Safety Climate Inventory (OSCI) was the first and only validated instrument to allow the assessment of organizational and safety climates simultaneously and by using the same theoretical framework. The present work investigated the psychometric properties of OSCI in an Italian sample at the group level; study 1 (N = 745) examined the factor structure of the scale by using confirmatory factor analyses. Study 2 (N = 471) advanced the original Portuguese validation by testing its measurement equivalence across gender and company sector through multiple-group confirmatory factor analyses. Results confirmed one higher-order factor structure with four first-order factors for both Organizational Climate and Safety Climate, with Organizational Climate predicting Safety Climate. Moreover, the scale was found to be invariant between men and women and between different types of company. Reliability, discriminant, and criterion validities of the scale showed very good values. Overall, the findings strengthened the original claim of the OSCI to be a valid and innovative instrument, which allows the identification of specific dimensions of safety climate, starting from a more general model of organizational climate.

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24

Rogers, Cassandra Denise Wilks y Jason Beringer. "Describing rainfall in northern Australia using multiple climate indices". Biogeosciences 14, n.º 3 (7 de febrero de 2017): 597–615. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-597-2017.

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Abstract. Savanna landscapes are globally extensive and highly sensitive to climate change, yet the physical processes and climate phenomena which affect them remain poorly understood and therefore poorly represented in climate models. Both human populations and natural ecosystems are highly susceptible to precipitation variation in these regions due to the effects on water and food availability and atmosphere–biosphere energy fluxes. Here we quantify the relationship between climate phenomena and historical rainfall variability in Australian savannas and, in particular, how these relationships changed across a strong rainfall gradient, namely the North Australian Tropical Transect (NATT). Climate phenomena were described by 16 relevant climate indices and correlated against precipitation from 1900 to 2010 to determine the relative importance of each climate index on seasonal, annual and decadal timescales. Precipitation trends, climate index trends and wet season characteristics have also been investigated using linear statistical methods. In general, climate index–rainfall correlations were stronger in the north of the NATT where annual rainfall variability was lower and a high proportion of rainfall fell during the wet season. This is consistent with a decreased influence of the Indian–Australian monsoon from the north to the south. Seasonal variation was most strongly correlated with the Australian Monsoon Index, whereas yearly variability was related to a greater number of climate indices, predominately the Tasman Sea and Indonesian sea surface temperature indices (both of which experienced a linear increase over the duration of the study) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation indices. These findings highlight the importance of understanding the climatic processes driving variability and, subsequently, the importance of understanding the relationships between rainfall and climatic phenomena in the Northern Territory in order to project future rainfall patterns in the region.

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25

Meroni, Viola y Carlo De Michele. "Multiple testing corrections in a climate complex network". Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 597 (julio de 2022): 127254. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2022.127254.

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26

Kling, Matthew M., Stephanie L. Auer, Patrick J. Comer, David D. Ackerly y Healy Hamilton. "Multiple axes of ecological vulnerability to climate change". Global Change Biology 26, n.º 5 (7 de febrero de 2020): 2798–813. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15008.

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27

Straujuma, Laimdota. "Climate Change and Agriculture: Multiple Responses and Responsibilities". EuroChoices 14, n.º 1 (abril de 2015): 4–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1746-692x.12075.

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28

Steinacher, Marco, Fortunat Joos y Thomas F. Stocker. "Allowable carbon emissions lowered by multiple climate targets". Nature 499, n.º 7457 (julio de 2013): 197–201. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature12269.

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29

Scovronick, Noah, Carlos Dora, Elaine Fletcher, Andy Haines y Drew Shindell. "Reduce short-lived climate pollutants for multiple benefits". Lancet 386, n.º 10006 (noviembre de 2015): e28-e31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(15)61043-1.

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30

Rennkamp, Britta y Andrew Marquard. "South Africa’s multiple faces in current climate clubs". South African Journal of International Affairs 24, n.º 4 (2 de octubre de 2017): 443–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10220461.2017.1421479.

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31

Knutti, Reto, Reinhard Furrer, Claudia Tebaldi, Jan Cermak y Gerald A. Meehl. "Challenges in Combining Projections from Multiple Climate Models". Journal of Climate 23, n.º 10 (15 de mayo de 2010): 2739–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli3361.1.

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Abstract Recent coordinated efforts, in which numerous general circulation climate models have been run for a common set of experiments, have produced large datasets of projections of future climate for various scenarios. Those multimodel ensembles sample initial conditions, parameters, and structural uncertainties in the model design, and they have prompted a variety of approaches to quantifying uncertainty in future climate change. International climate change assessments also rely heavily on these models. These assessments often provide equal-weighted averages as best-guess results, assuming that individual model biases will at least partly cancel and that a model average prediction is more likely to be correct than a prediction from a single model based on the result that a multimodel average of present-day climate generally outperforms any individual model. This study outlines the motivation for using multimodel ensembles and discusses various challenges in interpreting them. Among these challenges are that the number of models in these ensembles is usually small, their distribution in the model or parameter space is unclear, and that extreme behavior is often not sampled. Model skill in simulating present-day climate conditions is shown to relate only weakly to the magnitude of predicted change. It is thus unclear by how much the confidence in future projections should increase based on improvements in simulating present-day conditions, a reduction of intermodel spread, or a larger number of models. Averaging model output may further lead to a loss of signal—for example, for precipitation change where the predicted changes are spatially heterogeneous, such that the true expected change is very likely to be larger than suggested by a model average. Last, there is little agreement on metrics to separate “good” and “bad” models, and there is concern that model development, evaluation, and posterior weighting or ranking are all using the same datasets. While the multimodel average appears to still be useful in some situations, these results show that more quantitative methods to evaluate model performance are critical to maximize the value of climate change projections from global models.

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32

Niven, Robert K. "Maximum-entropy weighting of multiple earth climate models". Climate Dynamics 39, n.º 3-4 (4 de septiembre de 2011): 755–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1163-5.

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33

Michalak, Julia L., John C. Withey, Joshua J. Lawler y Michael J. Case. "Future climate vulnerability - evaluating multiple lines of evidence". Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 15, n.º 7 (14 de agosto de 2017): 367–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/fee.1516.

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34

Barsugli, Joseph, Sang-Ik Shin y Prashant D. Sardeshmukh. "Tropical Climate Regimes and Global Climate Sensitivity in a Simple Setting". Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 62, n.º 4 (1 de abril de 2005): 1226–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jas3404.1.

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Abstract Multiple tropical climate regimes are found in an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to a global slab ocean when the model is forced by different values of globally uniform insolation. Even in this simple setting, convection organizes into an intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) solely due to the effect of planetary rotation, as was found in Kirtman and Schneider, for a single value of insolation. Here the response to a range of insolation values is explored, and surprisingly, multiple climate regimes characterized by radically different ITCZ structures are found. In order from the coldest to warmest climates, these are a symmetric double ITCZ, a near-symmetric equatorial ITCZ, a transient asymmetric ITCZ, and a stable, strongly asymmetric ITCZ. The model exhibits hysteresis in the transition from the near-symmetric to the strongly asymmetric ITCZ regimes when insolation is increased and then decreased. The initial transition away from symmetry can occur in the absence of air–sea coupling; however, the coupling is essential for the establishment and maintenance of the strongly asymmetric ITCZ. Wind–evaporation–SST feedback as well as the longwave radiative effects of clouds and water vapor on SSTs appear to be important in maintaining the asymmetric regime. The existence of multiple regimes in a single AGCM, and the dependence of these regimes on SST feedbacks, may have a bearing on the ITCZ simulation errors of current coupled climate models. The sensitivity of the global mean surface temperature generally decreases with increasing insolation, a consequence primarily of increasingly negative shortwave cloud forcing. Climate sensitivity measured across a regime transition can be much larger than the sensitivity within a single regime.

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35

Lee, Moon-Hwan, Eun-Soon Im y Deg-Hyo Bae. "A comparative assessment of climate change impacts on drought over Korea based on multiple climate projections and multiple drought indices". Climate Dynamics 53, n.º 1-2 (2 de enero de 2019): 389–404. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4588-2.

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36

Livingston, Jasmine E., Eva Lövbrand y Johanna Alkan Olsson. "From climates multiple to climate singular: Maintaining policy-relevance in the IPCC synthesis report". Environmental Science & Policy 90 (diciembre de 2018): 83–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2018.10.003.

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37

Lee, Jae, Woo-Seop Lee, Kristie Ebi y Ho Kim. "Temperature-Related Summer Mortality Under Multiple Climate, Population, and Adaptation Scenarios". International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 16, n.º 6 (21 de marzo de 2019): 1026. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16061026.

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Projections of the magnitude and pattern of possible health risks from climate change should be based on multiple climate and development scenarios to describe the range of uncertainties, to inform effective and efficient policies. For a better understanding of climate change-related risks in seven metropolitan cities of South Korea, we estimated temperature-related summer (June to August) mortality until 2100 using projected changes in climate, population, and adaptation. In addition, we extracted the variations in the mortality estimates associated with uncertainties in climate, population, and adaptation scenarios using 25 climate models, two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), three population scenarios (high, medium and low variants), and four adaptation scenarios (absolute threshold shift, slope reduction in the temperature-mortality relationship, a combination of slope reduction and threshold shift, and a sigmoid function based on the historical trend). Compared to the baseline period (1991–2015), temperature-attributable mortality in South Korea during summer in the 2090s is projected to increase 5.1 times for RCP 4.5 and 12.9 times for RCP 8.5 due to climate and population changes. Estimated future mortality varies by up to +44%/−55%, −80%, −60%, and +12%/−11% associated with the choice of climate models, adaptation, climate, and population scenarios, respectively, compared to the mortality estimated for the median of the climate models, no adaptation, RCP 8.5, and medium population variant. Health system choices about adaptation are the most important determinants of future mortality after climate projections. The range of possible future mortality underscores the importance of flexible, iterative risk management.

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38

Callaghan, Terry V., Fredrik Bergholm, Torben R. Christensen, Christer Jonasson, Ulla Kokfelt y Margareta Johansson. "A new climate era in the sub-Arctic: Accelerating climate changes and multiple impacts". Geophysical Research Letters 37, n.º 14 (julio de 2010): n/a. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009gl042064.

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39

Hussain, Jamshad, Tasneem Khaliq, Senthold Asseng, Umer Saeed, Ashfaq Ahmad, Burhan Ahmad, Ishfaq Ahmad et al. "Climate change impacts and adaptations for wheat employing multiple climate and crop modelsin Pakistan". Climatic Change 163, n.º 1 (3 de octubre de 2020): 253–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02855-7.

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40

WIENS, JOHN A. y DOMINIQUE BACHELET. "Matching the Multiple Scales of Conservation with the Multiple Scales of Climate Change". Conservation Biology 24, n.º 1 (febrero de 2010): 51–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01409.x.

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41

Betts, Richard, Michael Sanderson y Stephanie Woodward. "Effects of large-scale Amazon forest degradation on climate and air quality through fluxes of carbon dioxide, water, energy, mineral dust and isoprene". Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 363, n.º 1498 (11 de febrero de 2008): 1873–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2007.0027.

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Loss of large areas of Amazonian forest, through either direct human impact or climate change, could exert a number of influences on the regional and global climates. In the Met Office Hadley Centre coupled climate–carbon cycle model, a severe drying of this region initiates forest loss that exerts a number of feedbacks on global and regional climates, which magnify the drying and the forest degradation. This paper provides an overview of the multiple feedback process in the Hadley Centre model and discusses the implications of the results for the case of direct human-induced deforestation. It also examines additional potential effects of forest loss through changes in the emissions of mineral dust and biogenic volatile organic compounds. The implications of ecosystem–climate feedbacks for climate change mitigation and adaptation policies are also discussed.

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42

Van de Vliert, Evert. "Hidden Climato-Economic Roots of Differentially Privileged Cultures". Nature and Culture 11, n.º 1 (1 de marzo de 2016): 44–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.3167/nc.2016.110103.

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This theory-based study tests the interactive impacts of the demands of thermal climate and wealth resources on variations in privileged culture represented by mental health, personal freedom, and political democracy. Multiple regression analysis of aggregated survey data covering 106 countries shows that cultures vary from minimally privileged in poor countries with demanding climates (e.g., Azerbaijan and Belarus) to maximally privileged in rich countries with demanding climates (e.g., Canada and Finland). In between those extremes, moderate degrees of privileged culture prevail in poor and rich countries with undemanding climates (e.g., Colombia and Singapore). Rival explanations and competing predictors, including degrees of agrarianism versus capitalism, latitude and longitude, and parasitic disease burden, could not account for these findings in support of the burgeoning climato-economic theory of culture.

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43

Dekker, S. C., H. J. de Boer, V. Brovkin, K. Fraedrich, M. J. Wassen y M. Rietkerk. "Biogeophysical feedbacks trigger shifts in the modelled climate system at multiple scales". Biogeosciences Discussions 6, n.º 6 (25 de noviembre de 2009): 10983–1004. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bgd-6-10983-2009.

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Abstract. Terrestrial vegetation influences climate by modifying the radiative-, momentum-, and hydrologic-balance. This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the question whether positive biogeophysical feedbacks between vegetation and climate may lead to multiple equilibria in vegetation and climate and consequent abrupt regime shifts. Several modelling studies argue that vegetation-climate feedbacks at local to regional scales could be strong enough to establish multiple states in the climate system. An Earth Model of Intermediate Complexity, PlaSim, is used to investigate the resilience of the climate system to vegetation disturbance at regional to global scales. We hypothesize that by starting with two extreme initialisations of biomass, positive vegetation-climate feedbacks will keep the vegetation-atmosphere system within different attraction domains. Indeed, model integrations starting from different initial biomass distributions diverged to clearly distinct climate-vegetation states in terms of abiotic (precipitation and temperature) and biotic (biomass) variables. Moreover, we found that between these states there are several other steady states which depend on the scale of perturbation. From here global susceptibility maps were made showing regions of low and high resilience. The model results suggest that mainly the boreal and monsoon regions have low resiliences, i.e. instable biomass equilibria, with positive vegetation-climate feedbacks in which the biomass induced by a perturbation is further enforced. The perturbation did not only influence single vegetation-climate cell interactions but also caused changes in spatial patterns of atmospheric circulation due to neighbouring cells constituting in spatial vegetation-climate feedbacks. Large perturbations could trigger an abrupt shift of the system towards another steady state. Although the model setup used in our simulation is rather simple, our results stress that the coupling of feedbacks at multiple scales in vegetation-climate models is essential and urgent to understand the system dynamics for improved projections of ecosystem responses to anthropogenic changes in climate forcing.

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44

Port, U. y M. Claussen. "Transitivity of the climate–vegetation system in a warm climate". Climate of the Past 11, n.º 11 (25 de noviembre de 2015): 1563–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1563-2015.

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Abstract. To date, the transitivity of the global system has been analysed for late Quaternary (glacial, interglacial, and present-day) climate. Here, we extend this analysis to a warm, almost ice-free climate with a different configuration of continents. We use the Earth system model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology to analyse the stability of the climate system under early Eocene and pre-industrial conditions. We initialize the simulations by prescribing either dense forests or bare deserts on all continents. Starting with desert continents, an extended desert remains in central Asia in the early Eocene climate. Starting with dense forest coverage, the Asian desert is much smaller, while coastal deserts develop in the Americas which appear to be larger than in the simulations with initially bare continents. These differences can be attributed to differences in the large-scale tropical circulation. With initially forested continents, a stronger dipole in the 200 hPa velocity potential develops than in the simulation with initially bare continents. This difference prevails when vegetation is allowed to adjust to and interact with climate. Further simulations with initial surface conditions that differ in the region of the Asian desert only indicate that local feedback processes are less important in the development of multiple states. In the interglacial, pre-industrial climate, multiple states develop only in the Sahel region. There, local climate–vegetation interaction seems to dominate.

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45

Higgins, Paul A. T., Michael D. Mastrandrea y Stephen H. Schneider. "Dynamics of climate and ecosystem coupling: abrupt changes and multiple equilibria". Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences 357, n.º 1421 (29 de mayo de 2002): 647–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2001.1043.

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Interactions between subunits of the global climate–biosphere system (e.g. atmosphere, ocean, biosphere and cryosphere) often lead to behaviour that is not evident when each subunit is viewed in isolation. This newly evident behaviour is an emergent property of the coupled subsystems. Interactions between thermohaline circulation and climate illustrate one emergent property of coupling ocean and atmospheric circulation. The multiple thermohaline circulation equilibria that result caused abrupt climate changes in the past and may cause abrupt climate changes in the future. Similarly, coupling between the climate system and ecosystem structure and function produces complex behaviour in certain regions. For example, atmosphere–biosphere interactions in the Sahel region of West Africa lead to multiple stable equilibria. Either wet or dry climate equilibria can occur under otherwise identical forcing conditions. The equilibrium reached is dependent on past history (i.e. initial conditions), and relatively small perturbations to either climate or vegetation can cause switching between the two equilibria. Both thermohaline circulation and the climate–vegetation system in the Sahel are prone to abrupt changes that may be irreversible. This complicates the relatively linear view of global changes held in many scientific and policy communities. Emergent properties of coupled socio–natural systems add yet another layer of complexity to the policy debate. As a result, the social and economic consequences of possible global changes are likely to be underestimated in most conventional analyses because these nonlinear, abrupt and irreversible responses are insufficiently considered.

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46

Vaughn, Sarah E. "The aesthetics and multiple origin stories of climate activism". Social Anthropology 29, n.º 1 (febrero de 2021): 213–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1469-8676.13007.

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47

Gornish, Elise S. y Jason M. Tylianakis. "Community shifts under climate change: Mechanisms at multiple scales". American Journal of Botany 100, n.º 7 (julio de 2013): 1422–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.3732/ajb.1300046.

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48

McGregor, John L. y Kevin Walsh. "Climate change simulations of Tasmanian precipitation using multiple nesting". Journal of Geophysical Research 99, n.º D10 (1994): 20889. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/94jd01720.

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49

Ferreira, David, John Marshall, Takamitsu Ito y David McGee. "Linking Glacial-Interglacial States to Multiple Equilibria of Climate". Geophysical Research Letters 45, n.º 17 (10 de septiembre de 2018): 9160–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018gl077019.

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50

ROHR, JASON R. y BRENT D. PALMER. "Climate Change, Multiple Stressors, and the Decline of Ectotherms". Conservation Biology 27, n.º 4 (14 de junio de 2013): 741–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/cobi.12086.

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