Literatura académica sobre el tema "Filipinos – employment – foreign countries"

All countries with significant coastlines and groups of islands inevitably produce seafarers at some time or other in the course of their economic development, and the two countries which are the subject of this paper are no exceptions. Chinese ships and seafarers were famously exploring the Indian Ocean more than a century before the arrival of the Portuguese and once the Spanish Pacific empire was established in the sixteenth century, the ships linking Mexico to Manila were mainly crewed by Filipinos. And it need hardly be said that Chinese and Filipinos have both been employed by foreign ship-owners throughout the twentieth century. What is unquestionably new is the magnitude of Filipino seafarers' employment in the world's merchant ships and the extraordinary growth of China as a nation with a major stake in the shipping industry, both as ship-owner and as a source of seafarers.

Abstract: FDI - employment relationship has been a major concern of many researchers due to it's various findings. FDI is stated that able to trigger growth in employment, however, on the other hand, some have found that employment conditions affect FDI inflow. Meanwhile, several studies found a bidirectional relationship, or even no-relationship. With a focus on youth employment, this study aimed to examine the link between FDI and youth employment in ASEAN-5 countries. From the results of the Granger Causality test, it was found that in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Singapore the FDI inflow is leading to youth employment, while in Thailand, the relationship is vice versa. Overall, there is no bidirectional causal relationship between FDI and youth employment in ASEAN-5 countries.Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, Youth Employment, Granger Causality, ASEAN-5 Kausalitas Penanaman Modal Asing dan Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja Muda: Bukti dari Negara-negara ASEAN-5Abstrak: Keterkaitan antara FDI dan penyerapan tenaga kerja telah menjadi perhatian utama banyak peneliti karena temuan yang beragam. FDI dinyatakan dapat memicu pertumbuhan lapangan kerja, namun di sisi lain, beberapa peneliti menemukan bahwa kondisi ketenagakerjaanlah yang mempengaruhi arus masuk FDI. Sementara itu, beberapa penelitian lain menemukan adanya hubungan dua arah, atau bahkan tidak ada hubungan. Dengan fokus pada penyerapan tenaga kerja muda, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji hubungan antara FDI dan penyerapan tenaga kerja muda di negara-negara ASEAN-5. Dari hasil uji kausalitas Granger ditemukan bahwa di Indonesia, Malaysia, Filipina, dan Singapura, aliran FDI yang masuk mengarah pada pada penciptaan lapangan kerja bagi kaum muda, sedangkan di Thailand ditemukan hubungan yang sebaliknya. Secara keseluruhan, tidak ditemukan hubungan kausal dua arah antara FDI dan penyerapan tenaga kerja muda di negara-negara ASEAN-5.Kata kunci: Penanaman Modal Asing, Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja Muda, Kausalitas Granger, ASEAN-5

The ethnic diversity of modern states raises the question of where successful countries are in terms of immigrant inclusion. The number of immigrants in Iceland has increased significantly since 2004, and by the end of 2016, immigrants made up around 10% of the population of Iceland. Research reveals a gap between immigrants and natives in terms of social and political inclusion. This paper examines the social and political integration of male and female immigrants in Iceland via comparisons with the native population. We ask how native Icelanders and people with a non-Icelandic background experience their social position and political participation within Icelandic society. We focus on political efficacy, ideas about what makes a good citizen, and subjective status position as indicators of the degree of social and political integration. We use data from the 2014 International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) on Citizenship, which is based on a random sample of 2,000 individuals and random samples of 600 individuals each targeting two of the largest immigrant groups in Iceland—Lithuanians and Poles—as well as the largest Asian immigrant group: Filipinos. Although the findings show integration of immigrants up to a certain extent, the differences between Icelandic and non-Icelandic participants are apparent and include certain disadvantages for participants with a foreign background. Although other variables—such as income, education, paid employment status, and age—play a larger role in social and political status than foreign nationality, the findings of this study suggest that there is room to improve the integration of immigrants in Iceland.

Many Filipino migrant workers (overseas Filipino workers) in their status as adult learners struggle in learning the local language of their host countries to native-like proficiency level. With the aim of establishing a second language (L2) acquisition pattern that may be useful in designing responsive adult training and welfare programs, this study examines how these workers acquire their L2s and what factors influence their rate and success in L2 learning. Utilizing mixed methods research design with 15 overseas Filipino workers as samples who learned various local languages in 10 different host countries, this study reveals that immersion and actual use of the target language in authentic communicative situations can make language acquisition easier. Findings of this study also confirm that instrumental and integrative motivation coupled with strong target language (TL) community support can make L2 learning faster, while old age and non-necessity of the L2 at work can make the whole process slower. In terms of communication strategies, findings show that syntactic avoidance is the most common communication strategy used, followed by direct appeal to authority (native speakers) and use of gestures, facial expressions, and translation tools. As foreign workers, their motivational orientations in learning their L2 are for employment, cultural understanding, and cultural integration. Implications of these findings are discussed in relation to second language teaching among adult language learners and overseas workers.

In the absence of hard registration or survey data on return migrants, this paper first seeks to identify the factors that reduce Filipinos' employment opportunities in countries affected by the current crisis and then carries out two rounds of simulation to estimate the orders of magnitude involved. The first round consists of a simple employment elasticity exercise. The second takes account of anticipated sectoral, occupational or other impacts. Finally, the paper briefly lists the measures available to the Government to deal with return migration.

Sabah has been the recipient of countless migrants for centuries. The most recent of these are largely Indonesians and Filipinos who come for economic reasons. The current economic turmoil has affected the capacity of the state to provide employment to both local and foreign workers. While Sabah is working towards reducing its dependence on foreign workers, it is likely that Sabah will continue to depend on migrant workers in the short and immediate term. The Sabah experience suggests that a more systematic approach is needed to regulate the flow of migrant labor in the region. But for this to succeed, the support and cooperation of all the relevant parties would be essential.

AbstractThis article tells the hitherto unknown history of the rickshaw in the Philippines. The Filipinos’ encounter with this transport mode was brief and largely revolved around a failed rickshaw business in Manila in 1902. The venture quickly fizzled out, but not without controversy, deeply rooted in the colliding socio-political forces in the city at that time: the reliance on a non-motorized transport system; the consolidation of American colonial rule against the backdrop of an ongoing revolution; the birth of the first Filipino labor federation; and the implementation of a law banning the employment of Chinese workers from unskilled trades. The controversy turned the rickshaw into a disputed symbol. On the one hand, the rickshaw enterprise was criticized by Filipino carriage drivers and nationalist labor leaders, who viewed the vehicle as an essentially foreign apparatus that would enslave Filipinos. On the other hand, the Americans used the Filipinos’ opposition to the rickshaw to prove the supposed un-modernity of the lazy native workers, who failed to grasp the idea of the dignity of labor. These disputes were inextricably linked to the clash of discourses between Filipino nationalism and colonial modernity, two competing perspectives both influenced by a comparative transnational frame.

Nepal and Sri Lanka are recognized as labour-exporting countries. The flow of labor migration in foreign labor markets has been increasing each year. Trends of foreign labor migration started to increase in both countries after 1990. Both countries are categorized under income group countries. Foreign employment has become one of the nation's main household income and foreign exchange earnings sources. After the 1990s, Remittance contributed to foreign exchange earnings and had a favourable impact on the balance of payments, solving unemployment problems, reducing poverty, and boosting economic growth. This study aims to examine the impact of foreign employment on Remittance and the economic growth of these economies. The impact of labor migration on macroeconomic variables (balance of payments, economic growth) has been measured using statistical tools such as correction and regression models from 1995-2019. The study finds that the flow of Remittance has increased and positively impacted macroeconomic variables in the study periods. The study shows that foreign employment has become the main destination for the youths of both countries. The results showed a positive relationship between foreign employment and Remittance and a positive impact on economic growth.

In foreign countries, private employment agencies have been established to solve the problem of unemployment. The article discusses and analyzes the activities of private employment agencies in developed and developing foreign countries. In addition, the regional activities of private employment agencies in Uzbekistan were studied and scientific proposals for their development were developed.

International assignments are increasingly important in the global business world but many assignments end up in failure causing heavy losses on many expatriates and their organizations. This study employees a multi-dimensional approach, as suggested by much of the literature on international assignments of Australian expatriates in Korea and Korean expatriates in Australia. Hierarchical regression indicated that their expatriate success in performance can be accurately predicted by ‘Family Adaptation’ how well the family adapted to the overseas location, ‘Nationality’ where Korean respondents reported a much higher level of family adaptation with the move compared to Australian managers, and ‘Age’ that older managers were more likely to report success with an overseas posting. ‘Family adaptation’ with overseas work assignments, was determined by the level of ‘Spouse Agreement’ and ‘Nationality.’ Overall, Korean expatriates rated their own performance and level of adaptation much higher than those of Australians in all measurement categories. The Korean group may have outperformed the Australian expatriate group in adjustment and performance, possibly due to their strength in language skills, educational level, religious and socialization commitments, situation-orientation, but most importantly, due to the stability in family and spouse relationships. The outcome suggests that organizations should address the issues related to spouse adjustment in order to ensure successful expatriate operations, from the stage of accepting assignments to the repatriation stage. There is some evidence at least in this research to suggest that these findings need to be replicated with larger samples and considered in future management policy.

International assignments are increasingly important in the global business world but many assignments end up in failure causing heavy losses on many expatriates and their organizations. This study employees a multi-dimensional approach, as suggested by much of the literature on international assignments of Australian expatriates in Korea and Korean expatriates in Australia. Hierarchical regression indicated that their expatriate success in performance can be accurately predicted by 'Family Adaptation' how well the family adapted to the overseas location, 'Nationality' where Korean respondents reported a much higher level of family adaptation with the move compared to Australian managers, and 'Age' that older managers were more likely to report success with an overseas posting. 'Family adaptation' with overseas work assignments, was determined by the level of 'Spouse Agreement' and 'Nationality.' Overall, Korean expatriates rated their own performance and level of adaptation much higher than those of Australians in all measurement categories. The Korean group may have outperformed the Australian expatriate group in adjustment and performance, possibly due to their strength in language skills, educational level, religious and socialization commitments, situation-orientation, but most importantly, due to the stability in family and spouse relationships. The outcome suggests that organizations should address the issues related to spouse adjustment in order to ensure successful expatriate operations, from the stage of accepting assignments to the repatriation stage. There is some evidence at least in this research to suggest that these findings need to be replicated with larger samples and considered in future management policy.

This secondary daa study, framed in social constructinism theory, descibes and analyses the "
pull"
factors influencing migration of health professionals developing to developed countries. 
The literature review sets the context withing which international migration takes place and explores relevant aspects of the G8, globalisation, and the gGeneral Agreement on Trade in Services. 
The research demonstrates that temprary or permanent internationsl migration occurs for employment or study purposes. 
It further confirms that, despite the lack of accurate data from African counties, the number of health professionals leaving th continent has increased significantly during the 1990's.

This study focused on the adjustment problems created by the effects of living and working in a culturally unfamiliar environment. Sixty-five internationally relocated workers, both male and female aged between 30 and 60 years, from different countries, who were on short-term relocation to Singapore, were asked to complete a survey. This survey questionnaire consisted of 56 questions, about the adjustment problems that they faced while on relocation and the availability or non-availability of pre-departure training. The conceptual framework for this study was developed by referring to difficulties uncovered in the literature review on the topic of international relocation. Questionnaire items were adapted from previously published research instruments. Responses were analysed by using descriptive statistics, one way ANOVAs and Independent sample t-tests. The results of this study highlight the problems associated with international relocation from the workers’ perspective and suggests that employers, employees and their families should be made aware of these problems prior to working abroad. This study, specifically found that workers, whether on relocation with or without their families experienced problems which affected their adjustment to their new environment. Overall, the sample tended to be poorly adjusted in their new environment. Nonetheless, about half of the participants appeared to be satisfied with the level of assistance they were given before departure even though the actual assistance was minimal. These findings can create a new awareness for multinational organisations and initiate a better understanding of the benefits that pre-departure training can have in averting or avoiding potential and costly problems at work. Recommendations from this study are that appropriate training based on a modified motor skills modal would prepare and furnish workers and their families with techniques which will help them to adjust readily to other cultures and thus minimise the mental and physiological effects of “culture shock.” This will provide significant benefits to internationally relocated workers and their families in the areas of health, safety and work productivity as well as contributing to their happiness and the maintenance of stable family relationships.

Economical and educational problems are caused by the reversed effect of the Employment Equity Act and Affirmative Action. One such problem is called “brain drain” (Lundy, 2006), The general aim of the research was to determine whether affirmative action caused final year students of the Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University to consider overseas employment. A literature study was conducted before the empirical objectives were reached. The empirical study was of a quantitative descriptive and inferential nature. A cross-sectional survey design was used to achieve the empirical objectives. A self- administered survey package was handed out to final year students within the various disciplines at their various classes. One hypothesis was tested. The results indicated that support was found for the hypothesis. The findings are discussed in relation to the data gathered. The implications of the research and the limitations of the study are outlined in the Results chapter.

AbstractThis chapter analyzes the discrimination that foreign student-athletes (FSAs) face through policies instituted by the Philippines’ top collegiate amateur sports organizations, which restrict participation in competitions. These policies ostensibly uphold amateurism and develop local talent, but negatively impact student-athletes from Nigeria, Cameroon, and other African countries who tend to excel compared to local student-athletes. While these restrictions have been widely criticized as racist, and detrimental to basketball as a sport, it appears likely that they will remain in place. The ban on FSAs is reinforced explicitly and/or implicitly in law and league regulations, confirming a recurring nationalist theme within Philippine sports. To the extent that law and jurisprudence can have a positive normative effect on society, it is important to find legal avenues to resist these measures. This chapter argues that there is the possibility under Philippine law for affected FSAs to protect their freedom through litigation based on equal protection and non-discrimination, and discusses potential modes of action and evaluates elements that may affect their success.

AbstractThe Philippines remains one of the top suppliers of seafarers to the global merchant fleet. In the 2015 BIMCO Manpower Report on seafarer supply countries, the Philippines ranked first for ratings and second for officers with 363,832 Filipino seafarers deployed to ocean-going merchant vessels in 2014 and accounting for 28% of the global supply of seafarers (MARINA 2015). Seafarers are crucial in keeping the Philippine economy afloat and in 2018, Filipino seafarers sent home USD 6.14 billion (Hellenic Shipping News 2019), accounting for about a fifth of the USD 32.2 billion overseas workers sent home that year (Inquirer 2019). The Philippines has developed as a major player in the crewing sector of the global maritime industry primarily because of its maritime history (Giraldez 2015; Mercene 2007; Schurz 1939), its maritime geography and the continued centrality of the sea to many people’s lives (as attested to by the presence of the myriad fishing communities dotted around the many islands of the country) (Warren 2003, 2007), the economic liberalisation of the 1970s and the concomitant institutionalisation of the labour export policies as enacted by Philippine governments since the presidency of Ferdinand Marcos whose latter policy saw many Filipinos seeking employment overseas (Asis 2017; Kaur 2016; Wozniak 2015).

Abstract Migration patterns in Germany have changed considerably during the post-war period. The active recruitment of “guest workers” stopped during the 1970s and was replaced by family reunification. Two big crisis-driven immigration waves swept Germany, following the collapse of Yugoslavia and the crises in the countries from Syria to Afghanistan. These immigration waves triggered legislation aimed at reducing immigration incentives, especially in the asylum law. From the early 2000s on, German policy turned more liberal following the EU Directives on freedom of movement and for highly qualified persons from non-EEA countries. Migration patterns changed dramatically, with EEA countries becoming the leading source of German immigration. EEA countries replaced the Anglo-Saxon immigration countries as the leading sources and destinations of migration. It is reassuring for economic policy that EU migrants, notably from Bulgaria and Romania, display high levels of employment and have boosted German employment, while unemployment rates reached historic lows. During the past decades, migration obstacles for EEA citizens have been lowered or abolished. Main obstacles to immigration of non-EEA citizens persist due to the restrictive law on residence permits. As a result, student visas, academic credentials, or family reunification are the main legal pathways to Germany. Given the difficulty to proof the equivalence of a foreign non-academic degree, it is far more promising for persons from third countries to apply for asylum with the chance to get a permanent residence permit after several years as a tolerated migrant.

Abstract This chapter analyses the social protection system in Estonia mainly from the immigration viewpoint. Perhaps because of low immigration rates in recent decades, immigration and emigration issues are seldom explicitly regulated in the Estonian legal system. Our findings indicate that social security rights are based mostly on legal resident status in Estonia, although EU foreign residents sometimes benefit from some better conditions, mainly in terms of taking into account employment records in other EU countries. Missing waiting periods for entitlement to social benefits guarantee that newly arrived immigrants have similar rights with long-term residents.

AbstractInternational human rights instruments do not explicitly include protection of undocumented migrants, but arguments for their inclusion are made on both normative and pragmatic basis. These denizens are often prevented from accessing rights de facto due to social practices, even when they are accorded de jure rights through legislation. As a result, the overwhelming majority of migrants are faced with limited options, have little voice, and have to make a living among and as part of the precariat. After 1994, South Africa was increasingly seen as a favourable destination for migrants seeking asylum and/or economic opportunities. Migrants are perceived as serving as a reserve of labour that is highly flexible, easily exploited, and unlikely to seek legal recourse for violations of labour law or to join a trade union. This labour market effect is particularly apparent and problematic in host countries with pre-existing high unemployment rates. As official workers representatives trade unions have a major role to play in recognising and mitigating the dangers inherent in dividing workers into citizens and denizens. Trade unions themselves though are in decline, with union density rates falling largely as a result of increasing use of non-standard employment arrangements by employers. Trade unions find it extremely difficult to access and organise these atypical workers, many of whom are migrants. The research for this chapter considered official union publications as well as interviews with trade union officials in the construction sector in Cape Town to assess trade unions responsiveness to migrant rights claims. Migrants are generally located in the periphery due to their more vulnerable status, and this position in the labour market renders their claims to rights and the role of trade unions in supporting these claims more difficult but equally necessary.

AbstractThe Celtic tiger boom was a major departure from previous experience since the Irish economy had a long previous history of relative weakness compared to many other European countries. The Irish economy had a chronic problem with insufficient generation of employment, resulting in high rates of emigration, as well as relatively low incomes. Previous attempts to promote industrial development included a period of protection and a focus on indigenous industry, followed by a more externally oriented free trade approach with a welcome for foreign investment after the late 1950s. By the mid-1980s, just before the boom, the economy was facing very serious problems, with record unemployment, a high rate of emigration and a major government financial crisis, as well as an industrial sector that was in crisis and an industrial policy that appeared to be failing.

AbstractSDG 8’s goal is to promote sustained, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth; full and productive employment; and decent work for all. This chapter examines the experiences of East Asian developing countries in achieving rapid and inclusive economic growth by focusing on the role of international tradeand foreign direct investmentnexus created through global value chains (GVCs)by multinational corporations (MNCs). GVCs enabled participating companies and countries to improve productivity, contributing to economic growth. The factors attributable to the participation in GVCs include high competitiveness of local companies and open business environment created by the Asian government. Moreover, construction and maintaining well-functioning soft (e.g., education and legal systems) and hard (e.g., transportation and communication systems) infrastructure by the government and international donors contributed to the creation of business-friendly environment. Faced with growing protectionism and the threats of growing US-China rivalry, infectious diseases, climate change, etc., maintaining an open and transparent rules-based business environment is crucially important to further achieving sustained, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth. In the light of absence of effective global economic order, exemplified by ineffectiveness of the World Trade Organizationin trade liberalization as well as dispute settlement, regional economic frameworks such as the CPTPP and RCEP in the Asia and Pacific region would be proven to be effective to achieve the goal.

AbstractThe adverse effect of climate change on agriculture is well-documented and is a cause of concern for governments globally. In addition to concerns over food crop production, the economies of numerous developing countries rely heavily on cash crops. The coffee and tea sectors are key in Kenya’s economy, contributing significantly to the gross domestic product, foreign exchange, and the direct or indirect employment of millions. Farmers engaged in the production of coffee and tea are predominantly small-scale farmers, with the majority farming on less than five acres. Climate change poses a threat to the production of these two crops and by extension to the economy of Kenya and the livelihood of farmers and those employed in these sectors. This study identifies the challenges posed by climate change in the tea and coffee sectors, the adaptation and mitigation measures identified, and the scope of their implementation. The production, processing, and marketing of tea and coffee in Kenya differs widely in terms of the institutions and institutional arrangements in the two sectors. This study will therefore analyze the role played by institutions in both sectors and how this affects climate change adaptation and mitigation measures by small-scale farmers.

Structural transformation concept emphasized by countless numbers of policy makers and scholars. Structural transformation affects not only countries' income levels but also a number of their economic parameters. Employment is one of the most significant of these parameters because the success of structural transformation is measured by the contributions of agriculture, manufacturing, and the service sector to growth and employment. In this chapter, the changing effects of economic complexity (as a major indicator of structural transformation) on employment, and the visual representation of this complexity, which is called product space, are studied using samples from South Korea and Japan. As a result of research, it is found out that increased complexity of a country's economy (increased intensity of the product space center) will lead to a decrease in the employment in agriculture and manufacturing, an increase in the employment in the services sector.

Developed countries have vastly depleted workforces because of their ageing populations. Finland is one of the countries suffering from labour shortages in all areas. At the same time, existing immigrants cannot find suitable work in Finnish firms due to language and integration barriers. This paper aims to explore the importance of the Finnish language in recruiting workers with foreign backgrounds, the need for a foreign workforce and the openness of Finnish firms to cooperation in solving these issues. The focus is on the recruitment barriers and the shortage of the workforce side of the data. The data have been collected from 36 firms from Finland in an interview form between 2020 and 2021 and qualitatively analysed and interpreted. The study explains the level of need for foreign workforces in Finnish firms and their willingness to cooperate with facilitating projects and funding bodies. It also connects the project findings to Finland’s official strategic focus for 2030.

According to the general theory, it is recognized that exports increase employment. Recently, in the world economy, increasing unemployment, foreign trade of the impact on employment has led to new research. Many of the aforementioned studies validating the theory, some of them have different results. In recent studies in Turkey was a different result. In this study, Turkey and the European Union countries in terms of trade effect on employment will be examined. For this purpose, employment and foreign trade data for the years 2000-2012 using a panel data analysis will be done. Exports, imports, wages, and production depending on the change in employment and the interaction will be investigated. Depending on available data at the sectoral level, there will be a distinction. Especially in the last ten years, the recession and rise in unemployment in Europe will be discussed with the relevant dynamics. In Turkey, the current account deficit, growth, unemployment issues are noteworthy. European Union accession process, Turkey and the European Union countries in the comparison will be significant in the economic indicators.

Today, foreign direct investment is very important for both developed and developing countries. It is seen as an opportunity to overcome the inadequacy of capital, especially in developing countries. It is expected that these investments will make a serious contribution in solving the problems related to the balance of payments, in the realization of the investments that will enable the growth of the economies, in increasing the employment. The study will examine the size, development and effects of foreign capital in Azerbaijan economy. Azerbaijan, which is also known as transition economies, has gone from the Soviet Union in 1991 to regulating its economic structure from the beginning. At this point, they have undertaken various reforms to improve their inadequate investment capabilities and to attract foreign direct investment into the country. In this respect, they tried to have a share of this great pasty shared by the developed countries in the world. In this study, firstly foreign direct investments and economic effects will be examined. Then, general information about Azerbaijani economy will be given and the dimensions and effects of foreign direct investments in Azerbaijan will be revealed. After the literature review on the subject has been made, the relationship between economic growth and foreign direct investment in Azerbaijan will be empirically analyzed. The figures for Azerbaijan during the period 1995-2015 were obtained from the World Bank.

The role of the foreign direct investment (FDI) for the economic growth of countries is crucial in terms of the advantages it creates such as employment opportunities, providing long-term finance, facilitating competition, and technology spillover. Although countries are trying to attract FDI inflows and rise the volume of new projects, the concern of environmental issues is gaining much more importance than ever before. In this respect, this study will aim to investigate the relationship between FDI inflows and environmental pollution from CIS countries for the period 2001-2014. By employing panel data analysis, the relation is analyzed by using Carbon dioxide emission as a proxy for environmental pollution. The data is obtained from the World Bank database for selected countries.

The contribution of exports to GDP in MINT countries that improve substantially just after their implantation of export promotion strategy in the late 1980s raises the issue of whether the growth in these countries is led by export or not. While a good number of studies have been found investigating whether economic growth is promoted by exports for developing countries having an outstanding share of export in GDP, no study investigating the export-led growth hypothesis for MINT countries has been found until recent times. The main purpose of this study is to fill up the void. The study employs panel cointegration technique with an aim to examine whether the export is the key factor of economic growth for MINT countries employing yearly secondary data that covers the period. Results of the study imply that economic growth of these countries is considerably exports driven. Moreover, there is an indication of improvement of efficiency as exports work along with the rise capital formation. As the employment opportunity of an economy is expanded through capital formation, the emerging MINT countries endowed with large population and favorable demographics are expected to become the major exporters with strong GDP growth by being able to attract adequate foreign investment.

Domestic investment by itself is not enough in today's era of globalization and accelerated economic growth, thus, it is necessary to direct capital beyond the borders of the country. Similar to that, project management must also move across borders. Management across borders require specific set of skills in order to contribute to the successful implementation of projects in the host countries. The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between project scale and foreign direct investment in the Republic of Serbia. According to a few previous studies in this area, the project scale is expressed through capital expenditures and employment, while foreign direct investments are expressed as net inflows of foreign capital to Serbia. It was concluded that there is a significant interdependence between the project scale and foreign investments, in the terms of the sensitivity of foreign investments to the choice of investment location. In the future, it is important to pay more attention to this issue and provide a quantitative model that would include some other important macroeconomic variables.

After the 1980s, as the globalization movement accelerated, countries increased their foreign trade transactions. In with this process, import-based growth model was abandoned in the Turkish economy and an export-based growth model is adopted. The export-led growth model increased export revenues started to, growth has gained speed, however, due to fact that the industry is dependent on imported inputs, started to increase external balance and current account deficit problems. In addition, there have economic growth that is not create employment due to insufficient savings and investments. For this reason, the increase in external debt tended to increase further. Such causes have led to an increase in external debt. In this study, the effect of export-led growth on foreign debts will be analyzed. For this purpose, foreign debts and growth relation in Turkey will be analyzed with time series model and will be done causality analysis.

Many studies in the literature focus the positive contribution of foreign direct investments, especially in the economic growth process of developing countries' economies. However, there is no consensus on the effects of foreign direct investments on unemployment yet. Accordingly, in this study, the short and long-term relationships between foreign direct investment and unemployment in Turkey between the years 1988-2020 were examined. The findings of the study confirmed the views in the literature that "the effect of foreign direct investments on unemployment is positive", in other words, "direct foreign investments increase unemployment". In addition, according to the Granger causality analysis results, a one-way causality relationship from unemployment to foreign direct investments was observed. Considering the policies followed by Turkey after the January 24 decisions, foreign direct investments are not an element that can be easily abandoned for the country, as it increases the domestic production volume, implements technological innovations, and sets an example for domestic formations in many aspects. Additionally, it is thought to be at a very important point in terms of ensuring integration with the outside world. In this context, the study points out that in addition to encouraging foreign direct investments within the scope of stable growth, domestic investors should be supported in terms of the consistency of employment policies.

A high level of a country’s foreign trade is related to the growth of foreign earnings, to the acceleration of investments, to increase employment and contributes significantly to the growth of the country's economy. In this context, SMEs as one of the mile stones of the economy, foreign trade and economic growth are located in the leading roles. Especially SMEs sufficiently developed oppressed against strong opponents abroad, government policies or practices in trade restrictive policies are some of the reasons for this downside. SMEs that exports goods, or the infrastructure needed to produce goods for SMEs who import raw materials as well as the country's foreign trade policies and developments in the world economy is important. SMEs to follow the development, recognizing competitors, new markets, new products is very important in terms of growth both business and the countries. In this study, SMEs engaged in foreign trade in Sivas Province performing an application on in terms of both the business and government policy at the local level status will be examined. Data will be obtained on issues such as ultimately foreign trade potential of existing SMEs while doing foreign trade problems they face, strengths and weaknesses, market policies at national and international levels, the opinions about the state's foreign trade policy. The results obtained from the data on SMEs engaged in foreign trade by making general inferences about the data obtained on a micro scale, will allow making inferences on the macro scale.

We study the role of multinationals (MNCs) in facilitating firm-level and aggregate structural transformation. Using a stylized model of multinational production and trade, we show that an inward multinational liberalization in the manufacturing sector raises employment in host country firms, and decreases manufacturing employment, while also raising services employment, in the parent firms. We also show the conditions under which aggregate structural transformation occurs. We test the models firm-level predictions by using confidential microdata from Japan. We study the response of Japanese MNC parents and their affiliates in China to an exogenous change in China's openness to foreign direct investment (FDI). We find that in industries where inward FDI was encouraged, Japan MNCs' affiliates in China experienced increases in their employment. We also find that MNC parents in the encouraged industries experienced decreases in home country manufacturing employment and increases in home country services and R&D employment. Finally, using microdata for several advanced and middle-income countries, we decompose the change in overall manufacturing employment shares into MNC and non-MNC components. We find a significant role for MNCs across all countries, suggesting the mechanism we highlight is an important global driver of structural transformation.

This qualitative study was undertaken as part of the work of the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) funded Inclusion Works programme which aims to improve inclusive employment for people with disabilities in four countries: Uganda, Kenya, Nigeria, Bangladesh. When the COVID-19 pandemic emerged early in 2020 the work of this consortium programme was adapted to focus on pandemic relief and research activities, while some other planned work was not possible.

This qualitative study was undertaken as part of the work of the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) funded Inclusion Works programme which aims to improve inclusive employment for people with disabilities in four countries: Uganda, Kenya, Nigeria, Bangladesh. When the COVID-19 pandemic emerged early in 2020 the work of this consortium programme was adapted to focus on pandemic relief and research activities, while some other planned work was not possible.

Migration, while certainly not new, is on the increase all over the world. Indeed, the United Nations estimates that from 1990 to 2000 alone, the number of people who left their countries of origin rose by 14 percent, from 154 million to 175 million. The phenomenon is not only growing, but is having an impact on the economies of sending countries and receiving countries alike. The effect is visible in the labor market, income distribution, poverty, economic growth, and such areas as gender, health, education and human rights. In particular, remittances (money that immigrants send to friends or family in their countries of origin) have been growing rapidly throughout the world since the mid-1990s. Official figures in many developing countries show that these currency flows bring in more income than both foreign direct investment (FDI) and international development aid. Studies performed so far in Latin America show that remittance flows have a significant although moderate impact on economic and social development in receiving countries. However, these studies have failed to consider differences associated with the origin of remittances (i.e., North-South remittances versus South-South remittances). They implicitly assume that the impact of remittances is unaffected by the type of corridor through which they come. This document discuss that this assumption could prove to be mistaken if the socioeconomic profile of migrants is directly associated with the country to which they migrate and the kinds of opportunities they find for employment and compensation so as to send money home to families or friends.

We construct new measures of country risk and sentiment as perceived by global investors and executives using textual analysis of the quarterly earnings calls of publicly listed firms around the world. Our quarterly measures cover 45 countries from 2002-2020. We use our measures to provide a novel characterization of country risk and to provide a harmonized definition of crises. We demonstrate that elevated perceptions of a country's riskiness are associated with significant falls in local asset prices and capital outflows, even after global financial conditions are controlled for. Increases in country risk are associated with reductions in firm-level investment and employment. We also show direct evidence of a novel type of contagion, where foreign risk is transmitted across borders through firm-level exposures. Exposed firms suffer falling market valuations and significantly retrench their hiring and investment in response to crises abroad. Finally, we provide direct evidence that heterogeneous currency loadings on global risk help explain the cross-country pattern of interest rates and currency risk premia.

This qualitative study was undertaken as part of the work of the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) funded Inclusion Works programme which aims to improve inclusive employment for people with disabilities in four countries: Uganda, Kenya, Nigeria, Bangladesh. When the COVID-19 pandemic emerged early in 2020 the work of this consortium programme was adapted to focus on pandemic relief and research activities, while some other planned work was not possible. The Institute of Development Studies (IDS) led a piece of qualitative research to explore the experiences and perceptions of the pandemic and related lockdowns in each country, using a narrative interview approach, which asks people to tell their stories, following up with some further questions once they have identified their priorities to talk about. 10 people with disabilities who were involved in Inclusion Works in each country were purposively selected to take part, each being invited to have two interviews with an interval of one or two months in between, in order to capture changes in their situation over time. The 10 interviewees had a range of impairments, were gender balanced and were various ages, as well as having differing living and working situations.

With the proliferation of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) over the past decade, demand for quantitative analysis of their likely impacts has surged. The main quantitative tool for performing such analysis is Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling. Yet these models have been widely criticized for performing poorly (Kehoe, 2002) and having weak econometric foundations (McKitrick, 1998; Jorgenson, 1984). FTA results have been shown to be particularly sensitive to the trade elasticities, with small trade elasticities generating large terms of trade effects and relatively modest efficiency gains, whereas large trade elasticities lead to the opposite result. Critics are understandably wary of results being determined largely by the authors’ choice of trade elasticities. Where do these trade elasticities come from? CGE modelers typically draw these elasticities from econometric work that uses time series price variation to identify an elasticity of substitution between domestic goods and composite imports (Alaouze, 1977; Alaouze, et al., 1977; Stern et al., 1976; Gallaway, McDaniel and Rivera, 2003). This approach has three problems: the use of point estimates as “truth”, the magnitude of the point estimates, and estimating the relevant elasticity. First, modelers take point estimates drawn from the econometric literature, while ignoring the precision of these estimates. As we will make clear below, the confidence one has in various CGE conclusions depends critically on the size of the confidence interval around parameter estimates. Standard “robustness checks” such as systematically raising or lowering the substitution parameters does not properly address this problem because it ignores information about which parameters we know with some precision and which we do not. A second problem with most existing studies derives from the use of import price series to identify home vs. foreign substitution, for example, tends to systematically understate the true elasticity. This is because these estimates take price variation as exogenous when estimating the import demand functions, and ignore quality variation. When quality is high, import demand and prices will be jointly high. This biases estimated elasticities toward zero. A related point is that the fixed-weight import price series used by most authors are theoretically inappropriate for estimating the elasticities of interest. CGE modelers generally examine a nested utility structure, with domestic production substitution for a CES composite import bundle. The appropriate price series is then the corresponding CES price index among foreign varieties. Constructing such an index requires knowledge of the elasticity of substitution among foreign varieties (see below). By using a fixed-weight import price series, previous estimates place too much weight on high foreign prices, and too small a weight on low foreign prices. In other words, they overstate the degree of price variation that exists, relative to a CES price index. Reconciling small trade volume movements with large import price series movements requires a small elasticity of substitution. This problem, and that of unmeasured quality variation, helps explain why typical estimated elasticities are very small. The third problem with the existing literature is that estimates taken from other researchers’ studies typically employ different levels of aggregation, and exploit different sources of price variation, from what policy modelers have in mind. Employment of elasticities in experiments ill-matched to their original estimation can be problematic. For example, estimates may be calculated at a higher or lower level of aggregation than the level of analysis than the modeler wants to examine. Estimating substitutability across sources for paddy rice gives one a quite different answer than estimates that look at agriculture as a whole. When analyzing Free Trade Agreements, the principle policy experiment is a change in relative prices among foreign suppliers caused by lowering tariffs within the FTA. Understanding the substitution this will induce across those suppliers is critical to gauging the FTA’s real effects. Using home v. foreign elasticities rather than elasticities of substitution among imports supplied from different countries may be quite misleading. Moreover, these “sourcing” elasticities are critical for constructing composite import price series to appropriate estimate home v. foreign substitutability. In summary, the history of estimating the substitution elasticities governing trade flows in CGE models has been checkered at best. Clearly there is a need for improved econometric estimation of these trade elasticities that is well-integrated into the CGE modeling framework. This paper provides such estimation and integration, and has several significant merits. First, we choose our experiment carefully. Our CGE analysis focuses on the prospective Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA) currently under negotiation. This is one of the most important FTAs currently “in play” in international negotiations. It also fits nicely with the source data used to estimate the trade elasticities, which is largely based on imports into North and South America. Our assessment is done in a perfectly competitive, comparative static setting in order to emphasize the role of the trade elasticities in determining the conventional gains/losses from such an FTA. This type of model is still widely used by government agencies for the evaluation of such agreements. Extensions to incorporate imperfect competition are straightforward, but involve the introduction of additional parameters (markups, extent of unexploited scale economies) as well as structural assumptions (entry/no-entry, nature of inter-firm rivalry) that introduce further uncertainty. Since our focus is on the effects of a PTA we estimate elasticities of substitution across multiple foreign supply sources. We do not use cross-exporter variation in prices or tariffs alone. Exporter price series exhibit a high degree of multicolinearity, and in any case, would be subject to unmeasured quality variation as described previously. Similarly, tariff variation by itself is typically unhelpful because by their very nature, Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariffs are non-discriminatory in nature, affecting all suppliers in the same way. Tariff preferences, where they exist, are often difficult to measure – sometimes being confounded by quantitative barriers, restrictive rules of origin, and other restrictions. Instead we employ a unique methodology and data set drawing on not only tariffs, but also bilateral transportation costs for goods traded internationally (Hummels, 1999). Transportation costs vary much more widely than do tariffs, allowing much more precise estimation of the trade elasticities that are central to CGE analysis of FTAs. We have highly disaggregated commodity trade flow data, and are therefore able to provide estimates that precisely match the commodity aggregation scheme employed in the subsequent CGE model. We follow the GTAP Version 5.0 aggregation scheme which includes 42 merchandise trade commodities covering food products, natural resources and manufactured goods. With the exception of two primary commodities that are not traded, we are able to estimate trade elasticities for all merchandise commodities that are significantly different form zero at the 95% confidence level. Rather than producing point estimates of the resulting welfare, export and employment effects, we report confidence intervals instead. These are based on repeated solution of the model, drawing from a distribution of trade elasticity estimates constructed based on the econometrically estimated standard errors. There is now a long history of CGE studies based on SSA: Systematic Sensitivity Analysis (Harrison and Vinod, 1992; Wigle, 1991; Pagon and Shannon, 1987) Ho

Banco de la República is celebrating its 100th anniversary in 2023. This is a very significant anniversary and one that provides an opportunity to highlight the contribution the Bank has made to the country’s development. Its track record as guarantor of monetary stability has established it as the one independent state institution that generates the greatest confidence among Colombians due to its transparency, management capabilities, and effective compliance with the central banking and cultural responsibilities entrusted to it by the Constitution and the Law. On a date as important as this, the Board of Directors of Banco de la República (BDBR) pays tribute to the generations of governors and officers whose commitment and dedication have contributed to the growth of this institution.1 Banco de la República’s mandate was confirmed in the National Constitutional Assembly of 1991 where the citizens had the opportunity to elect the seventy people who would have the task of drafting a new constitution. The leaders of the three political movements with the most votes were elected as chairs to the Assembly, and this tripartite presidency reflected the plurality and the need for consensus among the different political groups to move the reform forward. Among the issues considered, the National Constitutional Assembly gave special importance to monetary stability. That is why they decided to include central banking and to provide Banco de la República with the necessary autonomy to use the instruments for which they are responsible without interference from other authorities. The constituent members understood that ensuring price stability is a state duty and that the entity responsible for this task must be enshrined in the Constitution and have the technical capability and institutional autonomy necessary to adopt the decisions they deem appropriate to achieve this fundamental objective in coordination with the general economic policy. In particular, Article 373 established that “the State, through Banco de la República, shall ensure the maintenance of the purchasing power of the currency,” a provision that coincided with the central banking system adopted by countries that have been successful in controlling inflation. In 1999, in Ruling 481, the Constitutional Court stated that “the duty to maintain the purchasing power of the currency applies to not only the monetary, credit, and exchange authority, i.e., the Board of Banco de la República, but also those who have responsibilities in the formulation and implementation of the general economic policy of the country” and that “the basic constitutional purpose of Banco de la República is the protection of a sound currency. However, this authority must take the other economic objectives of state intervention such as full employment into consideration in their decisions since these functions must be coordinated with the general economic policy.” The reforms to Banco de la República agreed upon in the Constitutional Assembly of 1991 and in Act 31/1992 can be summarized in the following aspects: i) the Bank was assigned a specific mandate: to maintain the purchasing power of the currency in coordination with the general economic policy; ii) the BDBR was designatedas the monetary, foreign exchange, and credit authority; iii) the Bank and its Board of Directors were granted a significant degree of independence from the government; iv) the Bank was prohibited from granting credit to the private sector except in the case of the financial sector; v) established that in order to grant credit to the government, the unanimous vote of its Board of Directors was required except in the case of open market transactions; vi) determined that the legislature may, in no case, order credit quotas in favor of the State or individuals; vii) Congress was appointed, on behalf of society, as the main addressee of the Bank’s reporting exercise; and viii) the responsibility for inspection, surveillance, and control over Banco de la República was delegated to the President of the Republic. The members of the National Constitutional Assembly clearly understood that the benefits of low and stable inflation extend to the whole of society and contribute mto the smooth functioning of the economic system. Among the most important of these is that low inflation promotes the efficient use of productive resources by allowing relative prices to better guide the allocation of resources since this promotes economic growth and increases the welfare of the population. Likewise, low inflation reduces uncertainty about the expected return on investment and future asset prices. This increases the confidence of economic agents, facilitates long-term financing, and stimulates investment. Since the low-income population is unable to protect itself from inflation by diversifying its assets, and a high proportion of its income is concentrated in the purchase of food and other basic goods that are generally the most affected by inflationary shocks, low inflation avoids arbitrary redistribution of income and wealth.2 Moreover, low inflation facilitates wage negotiations, creates a good labor climate, and reduces the volatility of employment levels. Finally, low inflation helps to make the tax system more transparent and equitable by avoiding the distortions that inflation introduces into the value of assets and income that make up the tax base. From the monetary authority’s point of view, one of the most relevant benefits of low inflation is the credibility that economic agents acquire in inflation targeting, which turns it into an effective nominal anchor on price levels. Upon receiving its mandate, and using its autonomy, Banco de la República began to announce specific annual inflation targets as of 1992. Although the proposed inflation targets were not met precisely during this first stage, a downward trend in inflation was achieved that took it from 32.4% in 1990 to 16.7% in 1998. At that time, the exchange rate was kept within a band. This limited the effectiveness of monetary policy, which simultaneously sought to meet an inflation target and an exchange rate target. The Asian crisis spread to emerging economies and significantly affected the Colombian economy. The exchange rate came under strong pressure to depreciate as access to foreign financing was cut off under conditions of a high foreign imbalance. This, together with the lack of exchange rate flexibility, prevented a countercyclical monetary policy and led to a 4.2% contraction in GDP that year. In this context of economic slowdown, annual inflation fell to 9.2% at the end of 1999, thus falling below the 15% target set for that year. This episode fully revealed how costly it could be, in terms of economic activity, to have inflation and exchange rate targets simultaneously. Towards the end of 1999, Banco de la República announced the adoption of a new monetary policy regime called the Inflation Targeting Plan. This regime, known internationally as ‘Inflation Targeting,’ has been gaining increasing acceptance in developed countries, having been adopted in 1991 by New Zealand, Canada, and England, among others, and has achieved significant advances in the management of inflation without incurring costs in terms of economic activity. In Latin America, Brazil and Chile also adopted it in 1999. In the case of Colombia, the last remaining requirement to be fulfilled in order to adopt said policy was exchange rate flexibility. This was realized around September 1999, when the BDBR decided to abandon the exchange-rate bands to allow the exchange rate to be freely determined in the market.Consistent with the constitutional mandate, the fundamental objective of this new policy approach was “the achievement of an inflation target that contributes to maintaining output growth around its potential.”3 This potential capacity was understood as the GDP growth that the economy can obtain if it fully utilizes its productive resources. To meet this objective, monetary policy must of necessity play a countercyclical role in the economy. This is because when economic activity is below its potential and there are idle resources, the monetary authority can reduce the interest rate in the absence of inflationary pressure to stimulate the economy and, when output exceeds its potential capacity, raise it. This policy principle, which is immersed in the models for guiding the monetary policy stance, makes the following two objectives fully compatible in the medium term: meeting the inflation target and achieving a level of economic activity that is consistent with its productive capacity. To achieve this purpose, the inflation targeting system uses the money market interest rate (at which the central bank supplies primary liquidity to commercial banks) as the primary policy instrument. This replaced the quantity of money as an intermediate monetary policy target that Banco de la República, like several other central banks, had used for a long time. In the case of Colombia, the objective of the new monetary policy approach implied, in practical terms, that the recovery of the economy after the 1999 contraction should be achieved while complying with the decreasing inflation targets established by the BDBR. The accomplishment of this purpose was remarkable. In the first half of the first decade of the 2000s, economic activity recovered significantly and reached a growth rate of 6.8% in 2006. Meanwhile, inflation gradually declined in line with inflation targets. That was how the inflation rate went from 9.2% in 1999 to 4.5% in 2006, thus meeting the inflation target established for that year while GDP reached its potential level. After this balance was achieved in 2006, inflation rebounded to 5.7% in 2007, above the 4.0% target for that year due to the fact that the 7.5% GDP growth exceeded the potential capacity of the economy.4 After proving the effectiveness of the inflation targeting system in its first years of operation, this policy regime continued to consolidate as the BDBR and the technical staff gained experience in its management and state-of-the-art economic models were incorporated to diagnose the present and future state of the economy and to assess the persistence of inflation deviations and expectations with respect to the inflation target. Beginning in 2010, the BDBR established the long-term 3.0% annual inflation target, which remains in effect today. Lower inflation has contributed to making the macroeconomic environment more stable, and this has favored sustained economic growth, financial stability, capital market development, and the functioning of payment systems. As a result, reductions in the inflationary risk premia and lower TES and credit interest rates were achieved. At the same time, the duration of public domestic debt increased significantly going from 2.27 years in December 2002 to 5.86 years in December 2022, and financial deepening, measured as the level of the portfolio as a percentage of GDP, went from around 20% in the mid-1990s to values above 45% in recent years in a healthy context for credit institutions.Having been granted autonomy by the Constitution to fulfill the mandate of preserving the purchasing power of the currency, the tangible achievements made by Banco de la República in managing inflation together with the significant benefits derived from the process of bringing inflation to its long-term target, make the BDBR’s current challenge to return inflation to the 3.0% target even more demanding and pressing. As is well known, starting in 2021, and especially in 2022, inflation in Colombia once again became a serious economic problem with high welfare costs. The inflationary phenomenon has not been exclusive to Colombia and many other developed and emerging countries have seen their inflation rates move away from the targets proposed by their central banks.5 The reasons for this phenomenon have been analyzed in recent Reports to Congress, and this new edition delves deeper into the subject with updated information. The solid institutional and technical base that supports the inflation targeting approach under which the monetary policy strategy operates gives the BDBR the necessary elements to face this difficult challenge with confidence. In this regard, the BDBR reiterated its commitment to the 3.0% inflation target in its November 25 communiqué and expects it to be reached by the end of 2024.6 Monetary policy will continue to focus on meeting this objective while ensuring the sustainability of economic activity, as mandated by the Constitution. Analyst surveys done in March showed a significant increase (from 32.3% in January to 48.5% in March) in the percentage of responses placing inflation expectations two years or more ahead in a range between 3.0% and 4.0%. This is a clear indication of the recovery of credibility in the medium-term inflation target and is consistent with the BDBR’s announcement made in November 2022. The moderation of the upward trend in inflation seen in January, and especially in February, will help to reinforce this revision of inflation expectations and will help to meet the proposed targets. After reaching 5.6% at the end of 2021, inflation maintained an upward trend throughout 2022 due to inflationary pressures from both external sources, associated with the aftermath of the pandemic and the consequences of the war in Ukraine, and domestic sources, resulting from: strengthening of local demand; price indexation processes stimulated by the increase in inflation expectations; the impact on food production caused by the mid-2021 strike; and the pass-through of depreciation to prices. The 10% increase in the minimum wage in 2021 and the 16% increase in 2022, both of which exceeded the actual inflation and the increase in productivity, accentuated the indexation processes by establishing a high nominal adjustment benchmark. Thus, total inflation went to 13.1% by the end of 2022. The annual change in food prices, which went from 17.2% to 27.8% between those two years, was the most influential factor in the surge in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Another segment that contributed significantly to price increases was regulated products, which saw the annual change go from 7.1% in December 2021 to 11.8% by the end of 2022. The measure of core inflation excluding food and regulated items, in turn, went from 2.5% to 9.5% between the end of 2021 and the end of 2022. The substantial increase in core inflation shows that inflationary pressure has spread to most of the items in the household basket, which is characteristic of inflationary processes with generalized price indexation as is the case in Colombia. Monetary policy began to react early to this inflationary pressure. Thus, starting with its September 2021 session, the BDBR began a progressive change in the monetary policy stance moving away from the historical low of a 1.75% policy rate that had intended to stimulate the recovery of the economy. This adjustment process continued without interruption throughout 2022 and into the beginning of 2023 when the monetary policy rate reached 12.75% last January, thus accumulating an increase of 11 percentage points (pp). The public and the markets have been surprised that inflation continued to rise despite significant interest rate increases. However, as the BDBR has explained in its various communiqués, monetary policy works with a lag. Just as in 2022 economic activity recovered to a level above the pre-pandemic level, driven, along with other factors, by the monetary stimulus granted during the pandemic period and subsequent months, so too the effects of the current restrictive monetary policy will gradually take effect. This will allow us to expect the inflation rate to converge to 3.0% by the end of 2024 as is the BDBR’s purpose.Inflation results for January and February of this year showed declining marginal increases (13 bp and 3 bp respectively) compared to the change seen in December (59 bp). This suggests that a turning point in the inflation trend is approaching. In other Latin American countries such as Chile, Brazil, Perú, and Mexico, inflation has peaked and has begun to decline slowly, albeit with some ups and downs. It is to be expected that a similar process will take place in Colombia in the coming months. The expected decline in inflation in 2023 will be due, along with other factors, to lower cost pressure from abroad as a result of the gradual normalization of supply chains, the overcoming of supply shocks caused by the weather, and road blockades in previous years. This will be reflected in lower adjustments in food prices, as has already been seen in the first two months of the year and, of course, the lagged effect of monetary policy. The process of inflation convergence to the target will be gradual and will extend beyond 2023. This process will be facilitated if devaluation pressure is reversed. To this end, it is essential to continue consolidating fiscal sustainability and avoid messages on different public policy fronts that generate uncertainty and distrust. 1 This Report to Congress includes Box 1, which summarizes the trajectory of Banco de la República over the past 100 years. In addition, under the Bank’s auspices, several books that delve into various aspects of the history of this institution have been published in recent years. See, for example: Historia del Banco de la República 1923-2015; Tres banqueros centrales; Junta Directiva del Banco de la República: grandes episodios en 30 años de historia; Banco de la República: 90 años de la banca central en Colombia. 2 This is why lower inflation has been reflected in a reduction of income inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient that went from 58.7 in 1998 to 51.3 in the year prior to the pandemic. 3 See Gómez Javier, Uribe José Darío, Vargas Hernando (2002). “The Implementation of Inflation Targeting in Colombia”. Borradores de Economía, No. 202, March, available at: https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/5220 4 See López-Enciso Enrique A.; Vargas-Herrera Hernando and Rodríguez-Niño Norberto (2016). “The inflation targeting strategy in Colombia. An historical view.” Borradores de Economía, No. 952. https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/handle/20.500.12134/6263 5 According to the IMF, the percentage change in consumer prices between 2021 and 2022 went from 3.1% to 7.3% for advanced economies, and from 5.9% to 9.9% for emerging market and developing economies. 6 https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/noticias/junta-directiva-banco-republica-reitera-meta-inflacion-3