Literatura académica sobre el tema "Figaro en Chine"

Le 30 janvier 1887, avenue Victor Hugo à Paris, le général Chen Jitong, attaché militaire de la légation chinoise en France, refuse la main que lui tend l’étameur Ferdinand Laporte, qui l’injurie alors. Le procès qui s’ensuit pour injures publiques met au jour, derrière cette affaire anecdotique, un mauvais tour alors répandu à Paris, résumé par le chroniqueur judiciaire qui, sous le pseudonyme d’Argus, rend compte de l’affaire dans les colonnes du Figaro : « Il paraît que c’est une espèce de sport, parmi les loustics des faubourgs extérieurs, d’accoster les Chinois dans la rue et de leur tendre la main en les tutoyant avec une aimable familiarité. » Faire l’histoire de cette plaisanterie devenue incompréhensible impose d’entremêler trois histoires de mains. Celle, déjà, des imaginaires qui se greffent à partir du xviii e siècle sur le décalage des gestes de politesse chinois et occidentaux et constituent les salutations chinoises en antipodes mêmes de la poignée de main occidentale et égalitariste. Celle, ensuite, de l’attention continuelle que doivent prêter à leurs mains, dans la Chine du xix e siècle, diplomates et missionnaires pour les plier aux règles des bienséances chinoises et éviter le type de faux pas que recherche, précisément, Ferdinand Laporte. Celle, enfin, de la progressive familiarisation avec la structure des interactions sino-occidentales de franges entières de la population chinoise qui, tel Chen Jitong, apprennent entre autres, au fil du xix e siècle, à maîtriser la poignée de main. Ces trois histoires entremêlées jettent un éclairage original sur le statut à conférer aux interactions ordinaires dans l’histoire des relations sino-occidentales, et sur les différentes temporalités qui viennent se nouer dans une banale poignée de main.

Abstract Joseph Alexandre Saint-Yves d’Alveydre (1842–1909) is an eminent figure in the history of French esotericism who introduced a specific view on the history of humankind that evolves around various cycles of civilizations and their supposed remains in important cultural and religious traditions of the world. Although India obviously plays the most important role, a thorough study of his interest in China and its heritage clearly shows that in some points he even favors the latter. The present study aims at contextualizing his take on China in the longer reception history of East Asia in the European context.

Chiang Ching-kuo (1910-1988) es una figura imprescindible en la comprensión del Mundo Chino contemporáneo. El presente artículo propone una aproximación a través de los capítulos más importantes de su vida, desde su experiencia en la Unión Soviética hasta su presidencia de Taiwán durante la década de los años setenta y ochenta. La trayectoria vital de Chiang Ching-kuo permite asomarse al complejo nudo de relaciones existentes detrás del especifico proyecto modernizador chino que se cristalizó en la isla debido a una combinación de elementos exógenos y endógenos con un grado de contingencia no prevista por la élite política del Kuomintang. Este trabajo, que busca contribuir al desarrollo de los estudios chinos y taiwaneses en español, propone el concepto de “un corto siglo chino” y sugiere nuevas líneas de investigación conducentes a cuestionar el discurso dominante sobre el “milagro taiwanés”.

El presente artículo indaga la presencia de la figura del migrante chino en el teatro español actual. A pesar de que la población china es la séptima nacionalidad en el ranking de población extranjera en España a enero de 2021, aún no ha adquirido una mayor visibilidad en la dramaturgia española. En este contexto, destaca la obra teatral de Paco Bezerra El Señor Ye ama los dragones (2015), en tanto que introduce la figura migrante china para hacerla protagonista. El artículo propone el análisis del mencionado texto dramático y se enfoca en el modo de representar la otredad y los mecanismos de exclusión operantes en las sociedades actuales, recurriendo al concepto de la figura del paria moderno, en términos de Hanna Arendt (2004) y Eleni Varikas (2017). Si en un principio la figura del paria moderno sirve para determinar las prácticas a través de las cuales las personas migrantes de origen chino quedan empujadas al margen de la sociedad española, conforme se va desarrollando la acción la misma categoría será aplicable también a los ciudadanos y ciudadanas españoles en cuanto víctimas de la crisis económica. Con este cambio de perspectiva en lo referente a la subjetividad paria, la obra consigue sensibilizar al lector/espectador e invita a la movilización y el compromiso con unas políticas de las comunidades.

El siguiente trabajo profundiza el acontecimiento del duelo en la filosofía de Jacques Derrida. En esta perspectiva, se comienza por el libro Glas de 1974, donde se anunciaría el duelo por la muerte del sentido. Posteriormente, se profundizará en los fantasmas derridianos y la responsabilidad con los desaparecidos. En tercer lugar, emerge la figura del don, que abre al duelo hacia la espera infinita. Finalmente, y desde la lectura derridiana de los psicoanalistas Abraham y Török, se trabajará la figura de la “cripta” como falso inconsciente. Se concluye con una reflexión sobre Chile y los desaparecidos por la dictadura de Pinochet. This article focus on the event of mourning in the philosophy of Jacques Derrida. It begins, accordingly, with the 1974 book Glas, where Derrida announces his mourning for the death of meaning. The article then focus on the Derridean ghosts and the responsibility towards the missing. Thirdly, the figure of gift emerges, one that opens mourning towards the infinite hold. Endly, from the Derridean lecture of phsychoanalysts Abraham and Török, the figure of “crypt” will be presented as a false inconscious. It concludes with a reflection on Chile and the missing people by Pinochet’s dictatorship.

Habiendo conquistado las Filipinas, los españoles lograron tener contactos directos con los naturales de la China, Imperio con el que soñaban conectar. En el presente trabajo intentamos, a partir de las fuentes primarias tanto españolas como chinas, recuperar la importancia de lo que significaba un intérprete en aquella conexión, a través de la figura de Sinsay, como le llamaron los españoles, o Lin Bixiu en chino. Este asumió unas responsabilidades imprescindibles para que dos potencias tan distintas como España y China, generaran las primeras relaciones diplomáticas fructíferas en los años setenta del siglo XVI, produciéndose lo que hoy llamaríamos un fenómeno de globalización.

This article is devoted to the analysis of the subject’s place in the proto-categorical language constructions of Ancient China. Fundamental conceptual schemas called basic classifications refer to such constructs. The key schemes include binary, ternary and quinary classifications, which defined the main features and further development of the entire Chinese mentality and civilization. The main methodological technique used in conducting historical and philosophical research is the reliance on text primary sources. The most important and most reliable source of knowledge about the philosophical views of such a remote historical period (we are talking about the Zhou era, approximately 1045 – 221 BC) is the “Book of Changes” or “I-Ching”(易经). Structural analysis is used to identify the elements and numeral schemes in the considered figure of the subject. According to the language picture of the world, reconstructed on the basis of texts from ancient Chinese sources, the position of the subject appears to be initially embedded in the worldview paradigm of archaic China. The main characteristics of a man that reveal themselves in the studied constructions of proto-categorical thinking are centrality and emptiness. These properties appear to be the most essential for understanding the role assigned to the man in the deployed model of the universe. A dual image is formed from the predicates of the subject revealed as a result of the research. Man, from the point of view of the ancient Chinese, occupying a Central position in the vertical of the “three fundamental forces” of the San Cai (Earth-Man-Sky) and possessing, due to its dominant position, the features that are crucial for the successful knowledge of natural laws, appears to be devoid of his own, personal content. The initial emptiness of the subject of knowledge, which is its essential property, entails the absence of its individual content. The author makes a conclusion about the conditionally human position of the individual in the universe. Man turns out to be derived from natural, cosmic principles that form, according to the proto-categorical representations of Ancient China, not only the foundations of the world order, but also the principles of world relations.

Basée sur l'acquis théorique et méthodologique de la narrativite et ancrée dans la problématique de l'énonciation notre demarche vise l'analyse des structures axiologiques des trois quotidiens. La construction de l'événement est observée sur un plan diachronique par un suivi de l'information en première page (mi-avril a fin juin) et sur un plan synchronique par l'étude du traitement informationnel de la répression du 4 juin. Dans un premier nous définissons les stratégies d'annonce à la une eu égard à sa fonction d'interface. Le donne morphologique des items et du dispositif spatial est apprehendé complémentairement au donne sémantique des titres et des illustrations, le linguistique et l'iconographique permettant de dégager les isotopies figuratives et thématiques. Dans un second temps, nous considérons l'aspect ponctuel de l'événement désigne unaniment par le 1exeme "massacre" dont nous proposons une analyse lexico-semantique. Abordées dans le discours des unes les configurations passionnelles sont precisées dans l'analyse sémio-narrative et discursive du récit. Ce dernier ainsi que l'éditorial sont soumis a l'étude des modalites véridictoires et epistémiques dans le cadre de la véridiction liée à la spécificité des contrats enonciatifs. A travers les genres discursifs annoncant racontant et expliquant la nouvelle nous rendons compte des dispositifs véridictoires et pathemiques dans lesquels s'inscrivent les instances de l'énoncé et de l'énonciation
Based on the theoretical and methodological acquirements of narrativity and rooted in the problematics of enunciation our process aims at analysing the axiologic structures of dailies. The construction of the event is observed on a diachronic level through a follow-up of the front page news (from mid-april tothe end of june) and on a synchronic one through the study of the june 4 th repression. We first define the strategies of announcements on the front page, consideringits function of interface. The morphologic donne of the items and the spacing is apprehended with the semantic donne of the headlines and illustrations, the linguistics and the iconography allowing to bring out the figurative and thematic isotopies. Secondly, we consider the ponctual aspect of the event refered to by the lexeme "massacre" of which we propose a lexico-semantic analysis. Passional configurations are precised in the semio-narrative and discursive analysis of the narrative. The latter as well as editorial will be submitted to the study of the veridictory and epistemic modalities within the scope of veridiction linked to the specificity of the enunciative contracts. Through the discursive genres announcing, relating and explaining the news item, we give an account of the mechanisms in keeping with the proceedings of the utterance and of the enunciation

Beaumarchais fait son entrée dans le théâtre français en crise. Comment écrire en tant que dramaturge ? Trois procédés s’offrent à lui : développer une théorie de la fusion déjà entamée par d’autres précurseurs : Fontenelle, Nivelle de la Chaussée, Destouches, Voltaire et Diderot. Tout d’abord, en préconisant la fusion du comique et du dramique, il stimule des effets de gaieté et d’attendrissement chez son public, annonce officiellement la naissance du nouveau genre : le Drame. Ceci dépasse la séparation nette entre le tragique et le comique, faisant ainsi au sein du genre théâtral un premier pas vers une révolution qui implique de nombreuses possibilités. Ensuite, en introduisant des éléments narratifs dans le genre théâtral, il effectue une fusion entre le roman et le théâtre, révolutionne ainsi le concept de genre dramatique. La poétique dramatique chez lui n’est pas qu’une question d’esthétique formelle, mais relève de l’extension littéraire de sa vie de combattant aux plans historique, social, politique de son époque. Dans une perspective de réception, son utilisation du discours métadramatique permet à son public d’être en permanence entre distance et illusion. Ceci révolutionne le rapport scène-public et exercera une influence considérable sur sa postérité. Au sens large, le discours métathéâtral de Beaumarchais dépasse son temps. La circulation séculaire de la trilogie espagnole permettra au public chinois d’étudier l’adresse singulière de Beaumarchais sur sa poétique dramatique et ses riches connotations idéologiques qui se mêlera dans l’histoire, la société et l’esthétique chinoises. Ainsi, Beaumarchais et ses œuvres s’intégreront à la généalogie de la littérature étrangère classique en Chine, et deviendront un événement typique de la littérature mondialisée
Beaumarchais made his dramaturgical entry when French theatre was undergoing a crisis. How to write as a playwright? He solved this issue on three levels and developed a theory of fusion already started by other precursors: Fontenelle, Nivelle de la Chaussée, Destouches, Voltaire and Diderot. First of all, by advocating the fusion of the comic and the dramatic, he stimulated the effects of gaiety and tenderness in his audience, officially announcing the birth of the new genre: Drama. This overcomes the clear separation between the tragic and the comic, thus taking the first step within the theatrical genre towards a revolution that opens up a whole range of possibilities. Then, by introducing narrative elements into the theatrical genre, he achieved the fusion between the novel and the theatre, revolutionising the concept of dramatic genre. For him, dramatic poetics was not just a question of formal aesthetics, but of the literary extension of his life as a fighter, which relates to the historic, social and political context of his time. From a reception perspective, his use of metadramatic discourse allowed his audience to be constantly wavering between distance and illusion. This revolutionised the relationship between stage and audience, and had a considerable influence on his posterity. In the broadest sense, Beaumarchais’ metatheatrical discourse transcended his time. The secular circulation of the Spanish trilogy will enable Chinese audiences to study Beaumarchais' singular address on his dramatic poetics and its rich ideological connotations, which will blend into Chinese history, society and aesthetics. In this way, Beaumarchais and his works will become part of the genealogy of classical foreign literature in China, and a typical event in the world literature

Les missionnaires qui abordèrent le monde chinois à la fin de la Dynastie Ming et au début de la Dynastie Qing ont établi les fondements de leur entreprise en Chine et ont pris les premiers contacts avec la culture chinoise qui était différente et indépendante du monde chrétien. La plupart des premiers missionnaires occidentaux étaient italiens, parmi lesquels Alfonso Vagnoni est un nom capital. Alfonso Vagnoni (c.1568-c.1640) était un des rares jésuites qui ont vraiment pénétré dans les provinces de la Chine. Étant resté 37 ans sur cette terre orientale, il vécut plusieurs grands événements dans l’histoire du christianisme en Chine. Avec plus de vingt œuvres rédigées en chinois, il est considéré comme un des premiers jésuites qui ont laissé les œuvres les plus nombreuses en langue chinoise. L'ouvrage des Vies des saints (Tian Zhu Sheng Jiao Sheng Ren Xing Shi) est un manuscrit hagiographique inédit gravé en chinois en 1629 à Wulin. Se fondant en partie sur la fameuse La Légende Dorée, Vagnoni ne se limita pas à en faire la traduction. Il présenta dans ce recueil 74 saints dont un certain nombre ne sont pas mentionnés par Jacques de Voragine. Respectant les expressions chinoises, il présenta aux Chinois les modèles chrétiens occidentaux sans oublier de chercher un accord entre les deux civilisations différentes. Il divisa les 74 saints en sept groupes (apôtres, pontifes, martyrs, confesseurs, ermites, vierges et veuves), parmi lesquels les femmes occupent donc deux chapitres et prennent une place d’importance. Basé sur ces deux derniers chapitres, cette thèse s’attache à découvrir le style de ce manuscrit, ainsi que l’image des saintes occidentales que Vagnoni cherche à montrer à son lecteur chinois. Cela nous permet d’une certaine façon de mieux comprendre la contribution que ce jésuite italien apporte aux échanges interculturels entre l’Europe et la Chine
Western missionaries who went to China in late Ming and early Qing dynasties were founders of the Christian enterprise in China, and they had played a significant and pioneering role in the cultural exchanges between China and the Western Christian World. Most of these early missionaries were Italians, among whom Alfonso Vagnoni can’t be ignored. Alfonso Vagnoni (1566-1640) was one of the few Jesuits who had really penetrated into the interior of China. He stayed in this eastern land for 37 years, during which he disseminated Christian teaching in different provinces and personally experienced several major events in the history of Christianity in China. With more than twenty books written in Chinese, he was regarded as one of the early Jesuits who left the most numerous books in Chinese language. Tian Zhu Sheng Jiao Sheng Ren Xing Shi is a collection of hagiographies written by Alfonso Vagnoni. It was initially engraved by the Catholic Church Chaoxingtang of Wulin(Hangzhou, Zhejiang) in 1629. This work was based on the famous Golden Legend. However, the author was not confined to a translation. In this collection, he described the lives of 74 saints, and some of them were not mentioned by Jacobus de Voragine. While introducing these Western Christian role models to Chinese people, Vagnoni made extensive use of exclusively Chinese expressions, and strove to find the commonalities between these two disparate civilizations. In Tian Zhu Sheng Jiao Sheng Ren Xing Shi, Vagnoni divided the 74 saints into seven categories (the apostles, popes and bishops, martyrs, confessors, religious, virgins and widows), among which women occupied two volumes and thus had an important place. Based on these last two volumes, the present thesis attempts to carry out a preliminary study on the writing features of this work and on the images of the Western female saints that the author tried to show to his Chinese readers

Memoria (licenciado en ciencias jurídicas y sociales)
El presente trabajo, tiene como objetivo analizar el nuevo artículo 363 del Código Penal, modificado substancialmente por la Ley 19.617, publicada en el diario oficial, el día 12 de Julio de 1999, y que contiene el delito de estupro. La creación de este nuevo cuerpo legal, tuvo en primera instancia sólo la intención de modificar algunos aspectos del delito de violación, sin embargo a lo largo de la discusión del proyecto, se visualizó la necesidad de realizar una reforma integral a nuestra legislación penal, en lo relativo a los delitos sexuales. Así, se comienza a discutir la modificación al tipo penal, conocido como estupro, el que resultaba ser inoperante, por cuanto los presupuestos previstos por el Legislador de la época ( siglo XIX), no resultaban ser acordes con la realidad que vive el mundo de hoy. Durante la tramitación de la Ley, se tuvo en cuenta que las víctimas de los atentados sexuales no sólo eran mujeres, sino que también hombres, por lo que atendida la norma constitucional que consagra el derecho a la igualdad, se amplio el campo del sujeto pasivo, por lo que víctimas de estupro puede serlo cualquier persona. Unido a esto, se eliminó el término “doncella”, ampliamente discutido por la doctrina, pues algunos autores lo equiparaban con la “virginidad”, mientras que otros, lo asimilaban a la inexperiencia o ignorancia sexual. Luego, el legislador definió el tipo penal, estableciendo que la acción típica es el acceso carnal. Esto fue un gran avance en la creación de la norma, pues antiguamente el artículo 363 del Código Penal, sólo castigaba a la persona que cometía estupro, no definiendo que se entendía como tal conducta. Posteriormente y tras una discusión que duró, cerca de 6 años en el Congreso, se establecieron cuatro circunstancias, que indistintamente son constitutivas del delito materia de este estudio. Así, al estupro por engaño, se incorporó el estupro por prevalimiento, consagrado en la Legislación comparada.

La figure du dragon chinois est le lieu d'une combinatoire qui met en jeu l'eclair, la pluie, le crocodile, etc. Notre etude met en relief son theme pere-ancetre-empereur par rapport a la doctrine yin-yang tant dans la vie quotidienne que dans la cosmogonie. Le dragon est pris pour la representation d'un actant. Son noyau semique virtuel n'est rien d'autre qu'un objet yang, le symbole phallique. Les autres sens produits par le contexte sont des creationspoetiques. Une analyse combinee de la semiotique et de la psychanalyse met en lumiere les fonctions de son symbolisme dans la societe chinoise. Le symbole phallique et la representation du pere fusionnent dans une meme figure. En tant que pere imaginaire, elle est l'interdiction de la jouissance. La femme, la terre et le pouvoir qui sont des paradigmes dans ce monde mytique n'appartiennent qu'au pere. En tant que symbole phallique, elle sert a distraire l'homme torture par l'insatisfaction, elle nous plonge dans la pensee la plus "intime" du pere-empereur : empecher l'enfant de grandir, ou le transformer en eunuque ou en femme
The figure of the chinese dragon combines the lightning, the rain, the crocodile, etc. . . Our study emphasizes its theme father-ancestor emperor in relation to the yin-yang doctrine in everyday's life as well as in cosmogony. The dragon represents an "actant". Its virtual semic nucleus is nothing but a yang objet : the phallus symbol. The other meanings coming from the context are poetical creations. A combined analysis of semiotic and psycho-analysis brings to light the functions of its symbolism in chinese society. The phallus symbol and the representtion of father unite in the same figure. As an imaginary father it is the forbiffing of enjoyment. The woment, the earth and the power that are paradigms in this mythical world belong to the father only. As a phallus symbol, it uses to entertain man tortured by unsatistaction, it puts us into the "intimate" thought of the father-emperor : prevent the child from growing or turn him into a eunuch or a woman

Cette thèse entend actualiser le diagnostic de Gilles Deleuze sur le « peuple qui manque » en inspectant une série de figures prélevées dans quatre corpus contemporains : les films de Jia Zhangke ; quatre documentaires autour dudit « mouvement des places » initié par la révolution tunisienne de 2010, à savoir Tahrir, place de la libération de Stefano Savona, Maïdan de Sergueï Loznitsa, Vers Madrid de Sylvain George, The Uprising de Peter Snowdon ; les fictions réalistes françaises de Bruno Dumont, Abdellatif Kechiche, Jean-Charles Hue et Rabah Ameur-Zaïmeche ; un ensemble de films récents mettant en scène des figures de migrants clandestins. Le postulat théorique de cette recherche est que le « peuple » n'est pas un donné tangible ni une substance immuable, mais la résultante de configurations symboliques mobiles spécifiant les subjectivitations politiques propres à chaque époque ou épistémè (Michel Foucault est la seconde référence tutélaire de ce travail, et Jacques Rancière la troisième). Son hypothèse analytique veut que la mise en relation de ces films que tout éloigne fasse apparaître les dénominateurs communs aux figures du peuple contemporaines : l'effacement de leurs prédicats, la déroute de leurs perspectives historiques et leur désaffiliation idéologique et statutaire. Articulées ensemble, elles témoignent d'un remplacement du prolétariat par un précariat fondé sur un phénomène de désappartenance, dont cette recherche piste l'isomorphe esthétique à travers les films. Elle en conclut que le peuple ne manque plus, mais clignote
This PhD aims to update Gilles Deleuze's diagnosis concerning « the people that lacks » through the examination of a range of figures found in four different corpus : the movies of Jia Zhangke ; documentaries made upon the arab spring and the western uprisings that followed these events (Tahrir, place de la libération of Stefano Savona, Maïdan of Sergueï Loznitsa, Vers Madrid of Sylvain George, The Uprising of Peter Snowdon) ; the french realist dramas of Bruno Dumont, Abdellatif Kechiche, Jean-Charles Hue and Rabah Ameur-Zaïmeche ; a set of movies staging figures of refugees. The premise of this research is that the « people » can not be conceived as an eternal substance or a fixed identity, but is to be understood as the product of historical and symbolic configurations specifics to each epoch or épistémè (Michel Foucault is another leading reference of this work, altogether with Jacques Rancière), therefore carving the political subjectivities of an age. The analyses are guided by the hypothesis that, put together, these figures can outline the common characteristics of the people of our time : the erasure of its predicates, the deletion of its former historical perspectives and the fact that it is ideologically and socially disaffiliated. This tends to prove that the proletariat has been replaced by a « precariat » whose existence is determined by a phenomenon of « unbelonging ». This research looks for the aesthetic

Memoria (magister con mención en derecho privado)
No autorizada por el autor para ser publicada a texto completo
Se revisará la legislación nacional, respecto de la figura del teletrabajador y se confrontará con las experiencias de legislación extranjera, con la finalidad de sostener la necesidad de contemplar en nuestro derecho laboral una legislación especial para esta forma de trabajo. Se examinará la doctrina y jurisprudencia nacional y extranjera relativa al tratamiento del teletrabajo. Se revisará el alcance que tiene dicha figura, tanto desde el punto de vista de la relación laboral, como de su progresiva importancia en la división del trabajo, y de la dificultad para fiscalizar adecuadamente el cumplimiento de la normativa laboral y de la Seguridad Social. Se generará una propuesta que trace y resguarde adecuadamente los derechos de teletrabajadores y empresarios y permita una fiscalización adecuada de este tipo de trabajo.

Tesis (magíster en derecho con mención en derecho penal)
La presente investigación constituye un trabajo de tipo AFET que pretende un análisis en profundidad de un tema que reviste importancia para nuestra sociedad y que ha escapado de la regulación jurídico penal, permaneciendo impune, me refiero al contagio venéreo y SIDA, el cual no ha sido abordado como delito o circunstancia agravante en nuestro Código Penal. Es así que, este trabajo tiene por finalidad, efectuar un estudio sobre el contagio de infecciones de transmisión sexual y SIDA, analizar críticamente cuál ha sido la evolución jurídica hasta el momento en Chile, realizar un estudio de aquellas legislaciones extranjeras que contemplen el delito en mención y análisis de jurisprudencia extranjera que pueda resultar útil para los fines del trabajo, a fin de verificar su posible aplicación en nuestro país. Relevante resulta dilucidar el bien jurídico afectado por este delito, que constituirá la base de lo que se busca crear. A su vez, se pretende determinar si es posible en Chile incluir este delito en el catálogo de delitos contemplados en nuestro Código punitivo, según consideraciones de política criminal, y en tal caso, bajo qué modalidad, frente a qué concursos nos enfrentaríamos, cuál sería la sanción aplicable, proponiendo una construcción concreta de tipo penal

AbstractIn 2018, on the eve of the Trump administration’s trade war against China, the Xi administration inaugurated a ban on most plastic waste imports. Set in a small family-run plastic waste processing factory, Wang Jiuliang’s documentary Plastic China (2016) was rumored to have been an impetus for the ban. Approaching Plastic China as a cinematic portrayal of hinterlands, this chapter considers how ecocritical momentum is produced in the film by juxtaposing an aesthetics of the toxic sublime and a temporality of stagnation with the child as a figure of innocence and potentiality. Such waste and waste-times are not exclusive to China, but point to a reluctantly shared body between post/socialist and late capitalist worlds, as stubborn materials move through the intimate organs of the global digestive system.

This paper focuses on visions and representations of Italy that emerge from the travel writings and narrative intersections of Sino-Italian mobilities. Taking its primary example from the travels of Zou Taofen (1895-1944), who enshrined his memories of Italy in Pingzong jiyu 萍踪寄语 (Messages from an unending wandering) while exiled from China, this critical exploration of mobility traces the spread of ideas between the Italian Peninsula and the Republic of China. Zou’s new and original visions of Italy reached a broad readership during the republican period, spreading widely and making Zou a “central figure of the New Culture era." Despite his place as one of the most successful and influential journalists in the history of the Republic of China, Zou has not yet “received his full due” (Mitter 2004, 55).

AbstractIn this article, we analyze the relationship between mobility and the extractive economy of large copper mining in the Antofagasta region, located in the north of Chile. We will argue that extractivism generates various types of mobilities, which result in unequal processes of incorporation into the city, produced by the intersection of class, the origin of migration (internal and international), gender, ethnicity and race. On the basis of previous and ongoing research, we examined three types of mobilities to illustrate these inequalities: (i) internal migration, which played a decisive role in the settlement of the city and the region: (ii) circular internal mobility, under the figure of commuters: professionals, technicians and operators, mainly men, with different working conditions; and (iii) international migration from Bolivia, Colombia, Peru and other countries, attracted by job opportunities in the formal and informal sector, with good, medium or bad conditions depending on the ethno-national, “racial”, class and gender “marks”.

Abstract Latest advances of ASP flooding (ASP) field tests in China are provided to focus ontwo major concerns: ASP EOR cost and technical matureness. Benefits with and without alkali for ASP were discussed. ASP flooding mechanisms in Chinese perspective are discussed. Although 54 tests were surveyed, 5 recent typical ASP field tests are discussed with special attention: the only one using horizontal wells (HASP), one combining microbial flooding (MASP), one in conglomerate reservoir (Xinjiang), one in a 81°C reservoir (Henan) and the only organic alkali one (OASP). 2D nanosheets surfactant with moderate low interfacial tension (IFT)(10-1mN/m) making highest incremental oil recovery (IOR) (Yin et al, 2019; Raj et al,2019) proves that ultra-low IFT is not essential for EOR (Figure 1). It is emulsification rather than ultra-low IFT that dominates high IOR (Guo, 2018; Cheng et al, 2019). Alkali is very important and necessary to reduce surfactant adsorption, promote emulsification and improve polymer injectivity (Figure 2). Interfacial viscosity should have been regarded more important. 29 commercial blocks in Daqing are conducted (Cheng etal,2019). ASP flooding produced 32.6 million bbl oil (Zhang, 2019) in 2018 and accounts for 14% total oil production (Figure 3). HASP test (2012-2017) in Daqing makes the highest IOR of 29.66% OOIP, 10%higher than all the other vertical well ASP (VASP). 5 horizontal wells (3 Injectors 2 Producers). ASP slug is 0.45PV and viscosity is 30 mPa.s with 10-3 mN/m IFT.14. 1millon bbl oil is produced. OASP field test with 10 injectors and 21 producers in high divalent ion heavy oil reservoir in Shengli produced 6.47 millionbbls and predicted IOR of 11.9% OOIP with 0.45PV slug (0.1%A +0.3%S+1500ppm P). Water cut dropped from 97.8% to 90.5% and daily oil production rises from 138.6 bbl to 554.4bbl. B1DD and B2XASP reported financial internal rate of return (FIRR) of 18.01% and 22.7% respectively. MASP (2008-2014) was reported IOR of 20.57% OOIP (26.7% predicted). 1.237 PV chemical slug including 0.06PV microbialslug [2% microbe fluid and 2% nutrient solution] was injected to 9 Injectors corresponding to 16 Producers. Better injectivity and economic performance are observed (FIRR=31.40%). Chemical cost is445 CNY/ton. ASPF in a conglomerate reservoir goes well. ASP flooding was commercially used in Daqing. Some commercial ASPtests failed to attain its goal (Cheng et al,2019). HASP has achieved 10% OOIP higher incremental oil recovery than all the others VASP. Ultra-low IFT should not be the most important factor aspreviously believed. Emulsification contributed by alkali is vital. However, emulsion viscosity should beoptimized. A totally different new macroscopic capillary number theory can well explain many hard-to-understand field test results. Alkali is both important and necessary.

ASME published Code Case 2564 [1] in January 2008 on impulsively loaded vessels, which is the first design guidance of this kind worldwide. The authors participated in the Task Group of Sec. VIII, Div. 3 [2] and were also intimately engaged in development, design and operation of detonation chambers DAVINCH®. DAVINCH® is an acronym for Detonation of Ammunition in Vacuum INtegrated CHamber, utilized for destruction of old non-stockpile chemical weapons, which were recovered from underground and sea in several areas of Japan, China, and Belgium. The quantity destroyed to-date has reached as high as 4,500 items. Figure 1, and 2 show the installations of DV65 at Port Kanda, Japan and DV50 at Poelkapelle, Belgium, with maximum capacity of 65kg and 50 kg TNT-equivalent respectively.

Resumen: La figura de Le Corbusier ejerció una influencia sin contrapeso en la arquitectura moderna chilena, caracterizada salvo excepciones, por una adopción superficial y figurativa de sus ideas y formas. Entre estas excepciones está el singular caso del arquitecto Juan Borchers Fernández (1910-75) quien mediante sus agudas observaciones y lúcida crítica expone su adhesión mientras al mismo tiempo desmonta las contradicciones, los errores de interpretación y las falencias de las tesis lecorbuserianas. Para el análisis se utilizaron dos libros fundamentales (Vers une Architecture, 1923; Le Modulor, 1950) y dos artículos (L’angle droit, 1923; L’espace indicible, 1946) de Le Corbusier y las referencias a ellos en los libros, artículos, manuscritos, correspondencia y libretas de viajes de Borchers. Abstract: Corbusier’s influence in Chilean modern architecture is unique and it is characterized, with few exceptions, by superficial and figurative adoptions of his ideas and forms. Among these exceptions is the singular case of the architect Juan Borchers Fernández (1910-1975), whose acute observations and lucid review expose his adherence while at the same time they reveal the contradictions, misinterpretations and shortcomings about corbuserian’s thesis. This analysis is based on two fundamental original books (Vers une Architecture, 1923; Le Modulor, 1950) and two articles (L’angle droit, 1923; L’espace indicible, 1946) by Le Corbusier and references to them in Borchers’ books, articles, manuscripts, correspondence and travel journals. Palabras clave: Chile, teoría de la arquitectura, plástica, escala. Keywords: Chile, Architectural theory, plastic, scale. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4995/LC2015.2015.631

El reciente caso de las denuncias por triangulaciones de los fondos de inversiones con Aseguradoras de Fondos de Pensiones (AFP) y que involucrarían a la figura del Presidente de la República Sebastián Piñera, se suma ya a una larga lista de casos que durante los últimos años que engrosan un conjunto de acusaciones de sobre delitos de corrupción en las cuales se han visto involucrados una serie de autoridades políticas e instituciones del Estado.

This report, commissioned by Bloomberg Philanthropies, finds that 42,000 lives could be saved and 150,000 serious injuries prevented by 2030 if all new cars in seven G20 countries were required to be equipped with an inexpensive crash avoidance technology starting in 2020. Thirteen G20 counties currently adhere to United Nations regulations on electronic stability control (ESC). If the seven remaining countries—Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa—also mandated ESC in 2020, the report estimates $21.5 billion in economic benefit to those countries from the prevention of deaths and serious injuries. Argentina and Brazil are due to start applying ESC regulations in 2020. The UK-based Transport Research Laboratory (TRL) conducted the independent study of costs and benefits of applying ESC regulation in G20 countries, which are responsible for 98% of the world’s passenger car production. This report comes before the 3rd Ministerial Conference on Road Safety in Stockholm, which is the largest gathering of governments and is a key opportunity for adoption of this UN-recommended standard. According to the World Health Organization’s Global Road Safety Report, the number of road traffic deaths reached 1.35 million in 2016. Of all vehicle safety features, electronic stability control is regarded as the most important one for crash avoidance since it is 38% effective in reducing the number of deaths in loss-of-control collisions. ESC tries to prevent skidding and loss of control in cases of over-steering and under-steering. The technology continuously monitors a vehicle’s direction of travel, steering wheel angle and the speed at which the individual wheels are rotating. If there is a mismatch between the intended direction of travel and the actual direction of travel, as indicated by the steering wheel position, ESC will selectively apply the brakes and modulate the engine power to keep the vehicle traveling along the intended path. The cost of implementing ESC on vehicles that already contain anti-lock braking systems is thought to be as little as $50 per car. And the report finds the benefits are significant: For every dollar spent by consumers in purchasing vehicles with these technologies, there is a US$2.80 return in economic benefit to society because of the deaths and serious injuries avoided. The analysis warns that without regulation of ESC, the seven remaining G20 countries will only reach 44% installation of ESC by 2030. However, if all seven countries implemented ESC regulations this year, 85% of the total car fleet in G20 countries will have ESC by 2030, a figure still below the United Nations target of 100% ESC fleet coverage by 2030.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.