Bibliografías temáticas / Efficient market theory

Literatura académica sobre el tema "Efficient market theory"

Autor: Grafiati
Publicado: 4 de junio de 2021
Última modificación: 26 de febrero de 2023

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Artículos de revistas sobre el tema "Efficient market theory"

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Jahnke, William W. "Requiem for Efficient Market Theory". Journal of Investing 3, n.º 2 (31 de mayo de 1994): 5–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.3905/joi.3.2.5.

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Hodnett, Kathleen y Heng-Hsing Hsieh. "Capital Market Theories: Market Efficiency Versus Investor Prospects". International Business & Economics Research Journal (IBER) 11, n.º 8 (1 de agosto de 2012): 849. http://dx.doi.org/10.19030/iber.v11i8.7163.

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This paper reviews the development of capital market theories based on the assumption of capital market efficiency, which includes the efficient market hypothesis (EMH), modern portfolio theory (MPT), the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), the implications of MPT in asset allocation decisions, criticisms regarding the market portfolio and the development of the arbitrage pricing theory (APT). An alternative school of thought proposes that investors are irrational and that their trading behaviors are driven by psychological biases such as greed and fear. Prospect theory and the role of behavioral finance that describe investment decisions in imperfect capital markets are presented to contrast the Utopian assumption of perfect market efficiency. The paper concludes with the argument of Hirshleifer (2001) that heuristics are shared by investors and asset prices may not reflect their long-term intrinsic values as indicated by efficient capital market theories.
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GULKO, LES. "THE ENTROPIC MARKET HYPOTHESIS". International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance 02, n.º 03 (julio de 1999): 293–329. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0219024999000170.

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Information theory teaches that entropy is the fundamental limit for data compression, and electrical engineers routinely use entropy as a criterion for efficient storage and transmission of information. Since modern financial theory teaches that competitive market prices store and transmit information with some efficiency, should financial economists be concerned with entropy? This paper presents a market model in which entropy emerges endogenously as a condition for the operational efficiency of price discovery while entropy maximization emerges as a condition for the informational efficiency of market prices. The maximum-entropy formalism makes the efficient market hypothesis operational and testable. This formalism is used to establish that entropic markets admit no arbitrage and support both the Ross arbitrage pricing theory and the Black–Scholes stock option pricing model.
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Schulz, Rodney. "Guest Editorial: Oil and Efficient-Market Theory". Journal of Petroleum Technology 59, n.º 03 (1 de marzo de 2007): 20–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/0307-0020-jpt.

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Lee, Dwight R. y James A. Verbrugge. "The Efficient Market Theory Thrives on Criticism". Journal of Applied Corporate Finance 9, n.º 1 (marzo de 1996): 35–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-6622.1996.tb00099.x.

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Das, Amaresh. "Martingales, Efficient Market Hypothesis and Kolmogorov’s Complexity Theory". Information Management and Business Review 2, n.º 6 (15 de junio de 2011): 252–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.22610/imbr.v2i6.905.

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Efficient market theory states that financial markets can process information instantly. Empirical observations have challenged the stricter form of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). These empirical observations and theoretical considerations show that price changes are difficult to predict if one starts from the time series of price changes. This paper provides an explanation in terms of algorithmic complexity theory of Kolmogorov that makes a clearer connection between the efficient market hypothesis and the unpredictable character of stock returns.
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Emad Azhar Ali, Syed, Fong-Woon Lai y Muhammad Kashif Shad. "Investors’ risk perception in the context of efficient market hypothesis: A conceptual framework for malaysian and indonesian stock exchange". SHS Web of Conferences 124 (2021): 03002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/202112403002.

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The advocates of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) theory postulates that share prices depict all the available information concerning its intrinsic worth. EMH espouses the Random Walk Theory i.e. future stock returns cannot be predicted based on past movement patterns. Contrary to that, there are believers of the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH) who have questioned the adaptability of EMH and argues that market efficiency and investor’s risk perception varies across time, thus, stock returns can be predicted through active portfolio management. Various Studies have argued on market efficiency debate for developed markets, however, limited studies have examined the same for emerging markets such as Malaysia and Indonesia, which are most volatile among ASEAN-5 indices. Therefore, the primary objective of this study is to conceptualize the manifestation of efficient market hypothesis and investors’ risk perception in volatile markets of Malaysia (Kuala Lumpur Composite Index) and Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index) by testing the 10 years (2010-2019) of daily, weekly and monthly data for the return predictability. The findings of this study will provide insight into stock market behavior to help investors to better strategize their portfolio investment positioning to reap the most efficient risk-based return.
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Renigier-Biłozor, Małgorzata y Radosław Wiśniewski. "The Effectiveness of Real Estate Market Versus Efficiency of Its Participants". European Spatial Research and Policy 19, n.º 1 (26 de julio de 2012): 95–110. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/v10105-012-0008-5.

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Real estate markets (REMs) may be classified as strong-form efficient, semi-strong-form efficient or weak-form efficient. Efficiency measures the level of development or goal attainment in a complex social and economic system, such as the real estate market. The efficiency of the real estate market is the individual participant's ability to achieve the set goals. The number of goals is equivalent to the number of participants. Every market participant has a set of specific efficiency benchmarks which can be identified and described. In line with the theory of rational expectations, every participant should make decisions in a rational manner by relying on all available information to make the optimal forecast. The effectiveness of the real estate market is a function of the efficiency of individual market participants. This paper attempts to prove the following hypothesis: the effectiveness of a real estate market may be identified by analysing the effectiveness of its participants. The authors also discuss methods based on the rough set theory which can influence the efficiency and efficacy of market participants, and consequently, the effectiveness of the real estate market and its participants.
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Ying, Qianwei, Tahir Yousaf, Qurat ul Ain, Yasmeen Akhtar y Muhammad Shahid Rasheed. "Stock Investment and Excess Returns: A Critical Review in the Light of the Efficient Market Hypothesis". Journal of Risk and Financial Management 12, n.º 2 (8 de junio de 2019): 97. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm12020097.

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The expansion of investment strategies and capital markets is altering the significance and empirical rationality of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The vitality of capital markets is essential for efficiency research. The authors explore here the development and contemporary status of the efficient market hypothesis by emphasizing anomaly/excess returns. Investors often fail to get excess returns; however, thus far, market anomalies have been witnessed and stock prices have diverged from their intrinsic value. This paper presents an analysis of anomaly returns in the presence of the theory of the efficient market. Moreover, the market efficiency progression is reviewed and its present status is explored. Finally, the authors provide enough evidence of a data snooping issue, which violates and challenges the existing proof and creates room for replication studies in modern finance.
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James, Kevin R. y Marcela Valenzuela. "The Efficient IPO Market Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence". Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 55, n.º 7 (23 de enero de 2020): 2304–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0022109019000784.

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We derive the optimal underwriting method and the quantitative initial public offering (IPO) pricing rule that this method implies in a market with informational frictions consisting of fully rational banks, issuers, and investors. In an efficient IPO market, an issuer’s expected initial return will be determined entirely by the combination of this pricing rule and issuer fundamentals. Applying this rule, we find that we can explain the quantitative magnitude of the principal aspects of the time-series and cross-sectional variation in IPO average initial returns. We conclude that the IPO market is efficient.
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Tesis sobre el tema "Efficient market theory"

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Zhang, Jian. "Market efficiency test in the VIX futures market". Laramie, Wyo. : University of Wyoming, 2008. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1798967041&sid=1&Fmt=2&clientId=18949&RQT=309&VName=PQD.

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Antoniou, A. "Futures markets : Theory and tests". Thesis, University of York, 1986. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.377303.

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Pal, Satyajit Banking &amp Finance Australian School of Business UNSW. "Profitability of butterfly trades in bond markets". Awarded by:University of New South Wales. Banking & Finance, 2007. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/40713.

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The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) has had significant impact on the theory and practice of investments. However technical trading rules have continued to be used by practioners and have been the focus of many academic studies which have focused on equity, foreign exchange and futures markets. The scarcity of research into technical trading models for fixed income markets is astonishing considering the significant size and consequent investor importance of fixed income markets relative to other financial markets and the extensive application of technical trading models by market participants. This is one of the few studies that develops a technical trading model applicable to fixed income markets. Black (1986) defined Efficient Markets as a market where deviations from fundamental values were short lived and small in magnitude. Fundamental asset values are hard to calculate, but we are able to identify fundamental values for a set of Government Bonds on the principle that yield relativities between such bonds are quite stable except for 'deliberate' changes in trading behaviour. We find that the deviations from fundamental value are short lived and small in magnitude. We exploit deviations from fundamental value by Butterfly Trading strategies; Normal Butterfly trades earning returns from movements in yield curve slope and curvature and Arbitrage Butterfly trades earning returns from yield curve curvature only. After considering transaction costs, we achieve annualised returns of 120bps from our Normal Butterfly trades and 72 bps from our Arbitrage Butterfly trades. Consistent with the risk-return relationship for financial instruments, we find that the returns and the volatility of returns for Normal Butterfly trades are higher than the returns and volatility of returns for Arbitrage Butterfly trades. Normal Butterfly trades are exposed to yield curve slope changes whereas Arbitrage Butterfly trades are not, resulting in higher risk and higher returns for Normal Butterfly trades. This finding is consistent with the results obtained by Fabozzi, Martellini and Priaulet (2005).
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Alexakis, Christos. "An empirical investigation of the efficient market hypothesis : the case of the Athens stock market". Thesis, University of York, 1992. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/2488/.

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Fuggetta, Massimo. "Conventions and the stock market game". Thesis, University of Oxford, 1991. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:80ac28d3-605a-45cf-b632-baca334211bf.

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Forecasting stock price movements is a notoriously difficult job. Were it not so, it would be easy to get richer. In this case, however, nobody would get poorer. But if nobody gets poorer, nobody will get richer. There are two ways to get out of this vicious circle. The first, and the more well-trodden, is the Efficient Market Theory (EMT), or: Everybody Understands Everything. The second is the Casino Market Theory (CMT), or: Nobody Understands Anything. This work is an attempt to bridge the gap between these two theories. In the first chapter the EMT is analysed in its fundamental constituents, while Chapter 2 contains a discussion of several empirical tests of the theory. Chapter 3 extends the EMT to incorporate variable risk premia and rational speculative bubbles and Chapter 4 presents the available empirical evidence on the extended model. The line of research based on the EMT paradigm is abandoned in Chapter 5, where the central principle of the EMT - the assumption of homogeneous investors with common priors - is investigated and challenged. The basis is there laid for an alternative view of the stock market game, which emphasises the conventional nature of investors' beliefs about future returns and is consistent with the view that stock market prices do not only reflect the fundamental value of underlying companies. In Chapter 6, the hypothesis that non fundamental information (in particular, past information) may have an influence on current stock prices is evaluated against monthly data relative to the US, UK, Japanese and Italian stock markets. Contrary to popular wisdom, we find that past information has a significant effect on current stock returns. Our evidence indicates that, as Keynes suggested in the General Theory, conventional beliefs play a crucial role in the stock market game.
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Monte, Brent M. "Chaos and the stock market". CSUSB ScholarWorks, 1994. https://scholarworks.lib.csusb.edu/etd-project/860.

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Koh, Sung Soo. "The Korean stock market structure, behavior, and test of market efficiency /". Online version, 1989. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?did=1&uin=uk.bl.ethos.352906.

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Lam, Eric Campbell Full Yet. "Two essays on stock market anomalies /". View abstract or full-text, 2009. http://library.ust.hk/cgi/db/thesis.pl?FINA%202009%20LAM.

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Dong, Wei y 董炜. "Two essays on stock markets". Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2013. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B50662211.

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 This thesis contains two pieces of empirical study on market efficiency. The first essay tests the semi-strong form of market efficiency in the U.S. We use sell-side analyst target prices as publically available information and test the performance of a mean-variance optimized portfolio which is based on the Treynor and Black model. We focus on constituents of S&P 500 index as our sample universe. During the period of beck-testing from 2004 to 2010, we find that the dynamically rebalanced portfolio beats the market in 6 out of 7 years and that the strategy generates significant risk-adjusted abnormal returns. In the second essay we study the post-earnings-announcement drift (PEAD) phenomenon, a well-documented market anomaly, on the French stock market. Our empirical study devises a difference-in-difference policy experiment to test if trading activities by individual investors contribute to the magnitude of PEAD. We exploit a recent policy reform on the French stock market, which significantly increased speculative trading costs of individual investors and reduced their trading activities. The impact of reform is found twice as large on individual contrarian traders than momentum traders. Using a group of unaffected stocks to control for potential non-experimental factors, we find magnitude of PEAD dropped significantly after the reform in the experimented group but not in the experimented group but not in the control group.
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Zhang, Hua y 張華. "Investigating stock market efficiency in China". Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2003. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B29946542.

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Libros sobre el tema "Efficient market theory"

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Keane, Simon M. Emerging markets: The relevance of efficient market theory. London: Technical & Research Committee of the Chartered Association of Certified Accountants, 1993.

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Keane, Simon M. Efficient markets and financial reporting. 2a ed. Edinburgh: Institute of Chartered Accountants of Scotland, 1987.

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Richard, Roberts, ed. The key to making money in the new stock market. London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson, 1988.

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Williams, Leighton Vaughan. Market 'anomalies' as evidence of market 'inefficiency': The state of the debate. Nottingham: Nottingham Trent University, 1994.

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Poggi, Florence. An evaluation of the application of the semi-strong form of the Efficient Market Theory to the French Second Market. Dublin: University College Dublin, 1992.

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W, Lo Andrew, ed. Market efficiency: Stock market behaviour in theory and practice. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Pub., 1997.

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Amanulla, S. Indian stock market: Price integration and market efficiency. Bangalore: Institute for Social and Economic Change, 2000.

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Kenkyūjo, Hokkaidō Nijūisseiki Sōgō. Hokkaidō ni okeru butsuryū kōritsuka, kōdoka ni muketa arata na tenkai: Heisei 12-nendo chiiki kasseika suishin jigyō. [Sapporo-shi]: Hokkaidō Nijūisseiki Sōgō Kenkyūjo, 2001.

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Wall, David K. Underpricing of initial public offerings. Dublin: University College Dublin, 1993.

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Haugen, Robert A. The new finance: A case against efficient markets. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1995.

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Capítulos de libros sobre el tema "Efficient market theory"

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Read, Colin. "The Theory". En The Efficient Market Hypothesists, 102–6. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137292216_14.

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Read, Colin. "The Theory". En The Efficient Market Hypothesists, 130–33. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137292216_19.

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Read, Colin. "The Theory". En The Efficient Market Hypothesists, 189–92. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137292216_29.

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Read, Colin. "The Theory". En The Efficient Market Hypothesists, 24–32. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137292216_4.

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Read, Colin. "The Theory". En The Efficient Market Hypothesists, 75–81. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137292216_9.

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Michaud, Richard O. "Capital Market Theory and Efficient Markets". En Finance's Wrong Turns, 9–16. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-21863-7_2.

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Marwala, Tshilidzi y Evan Hurwitz. "Efficient Market Hypothesis". En Artificial Intelligence and Economic Theory: Skynet in the Market, 101–10. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-66104-9_9.

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Laopodis, Nikiforos T. "Efficient diversification and capital market theory". En Understanding Investments, 251–94. Second Edition. | New York: Routledge, 2020. | Revised edition of the author's Understanding investments, 2012.: Routledge, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003027478-11.

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Luo, Guo Ying. "Evolution and Informationally Efficient Equilibrium in a Commodity Futures Market". En Studies in Economic Theory, 61–88. New York, NY: Springer New York, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-0712-6_4.

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Hensoldt, Agnieszka. "Pragmatic theory of information and the efficient market hypothesis". En Philosophy in the Time of Economic Crisis, 125–40. Abingdon, Oxon; New York, NY : Routledge, 2017.: Routledge, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781315168869-9.

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Actas de conferencias sobre el tema "Efficient market theory"

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Kulikova, Maria V., David R. Taylor y Gennady Yu Kulikov. "Estimating a degree of evolving market efficiency: How efficient is the Romanian stock market?" En 2021 25th International Conference on System Theory, Control and Computing (ICSTCC). IEEE, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icstcc52150.2021.9607175.

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Tasevska, Ivona. "EMPIRICAL RESEARCH ON THE INFORMATION EFFICIENCY OF THE MACEDONIAN STOCK EXCHANGE". En Economic and Business Trends Shaping the Future. Ss Cyril and Methodius University, Faculty of Economics-Skopje, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.47063/ebtsf.2022.0027.

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One of the basic hypotheses in modern finance that defines financial markets is the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The existence of information efficient markets, where all information is incorporated in the price of financial instruments is the basis of rational economic theory. There may be an upward or downward trend in the financial markets, but after the inclusion of new information in the financial instruments, they would stabilize until the next new information. In addition to the definition of efficient markets, the hypothesis of random walk has a significant application, which explains that the market cannot be beaten and that prices and returns move in a random upward or downward direction. The paper includes two methodologies to confirm the efficiency of the financial markets. The first research was conducted in order to confirm the hypothesis of a random walk implementing a coefficient of variance test. The test was conducted using a large series of data of the returns’ movement of stock exchange indices on the Macedonian, Belgrade, Zagreb, Sofia and Ljubljana Stock Exchange, as well as the American S&P500 index. The second research which is including the model of market multipliers was conducted for the most liquid stocks on the Macedonian Stock Exchange and selected stocks from the US Stock Exchange Markets, in order to show the underestimation or overestimation in relation to the market value of stocks, thus to show the sentiment that investors have when trading a certain type of stock. The results of the research show that the regional financial markets, as well as the domestic ones, do not follow the random walk, giving an opportunity to the possibility of using alternative behavioral approaches to explain the reasons for the deviation. For the second survey, where significant differences in the fundamental and market value of the stocks appear, the reason for the deviation is the expectations of investors.
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Balcan, Maria-Florina, Siddharth Prasad y Tuomas Sandholm. "Efficient Algorithms for Learning Revenue-Maximizing Two-Part Tariffs". En Twenty-Ninth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Seventeenth Pacific Rim International Conference on Artificial Intelligence {IJCAI-PRICAI-20}. California: International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence Organization, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2020/47.

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A two-part tariff is a pricing scheme that consists of an up-front lump sum fee and a per unit fee. Various products in the real world are sold via a menu, or list, of two-part tariffs---for example gym memberships, cell phone data plans, etc. We study learning high-revenue menus of two-part tariffs from buyer valuation data, in the setting where the mechanism designer has access to samples from the distribution over buyers' values rather than an explicit description thereof. Our algorithms have clear direct uses, and provide the missing piece for the recent generalization theory of two-part tariffs. We present a polynomial time algorithm for optimizing one two-part tariff. We also present an algorithm for optimizing a length-L menu of two-part tariffs with run time exponential in L but polynomial in all other problem parameters. We then generalize the problem to multiple markets. We prove how many samples suffice to guarantee that a two-part tariff scheme that is feasible on the samples is also feasible on a new problem instance with high probability. We then show that computing revenue-maximizing feasible prices is hard even for buyers with additive valuations. Then, for buyers with identical valuation distributions, we present a condition that is sufficient for the two-part tariff scheme from the unsegmented setting to be optimal for the market-segmented setting. Finally, we prove a generalization result that states how many samples suffice so that we can compute the unsegmented solution on the samples and still be guaranteed that we get a near-optimal solution for the market-segmented setting with high probability.
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Peleckis, Kęstutis, Valentina Peleckienė y Kęstutis Peleckis. "International Business Negotiations: Search of the Balance and the Equilibrium of Negotiating Powers, under Distorting Market Conditions of Competition (Monopsony, Oligopsony and Monopoly Cases)". En Contemporary Issues in Business, Management and Education. Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/cbme.2017.041.

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Certain challenges arise in business negotiations when competition in the market is more or less distorted. This can take place in various markets conditions. In such situations great possibilities open up to the development of international business relations as overclocking new market participants can provide additional alternatives for companies and organizations or other business units, by reducing the negative impact of competition distortions for the balance of negotiating power of participants in negotiations. In the development and implementation of effective international business negotiation strategy, it is important to identify the balance of negotiating power of major participants in negotiations in order to make more efficient use of the potential of business negotiations – the negotiating powers. The aim of this article is to analyze in complex the unfolding theory and practice of development and implementation of international business negotiations and negotiating strategies under distorting market competition conditions, to reveal opportunities on development and implementing improvements of these strategies in cases of monopsony, oligopsony and monopoly. Object of the research is the search of balance on negotiating powers in international business negotiations under conditions of distorted competition in the market. The scientific problem - negotiation theory lacks measures for assessment and balancing the negotiating powers of negotiation’s participants under distorted market competition.
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Michael, Andreas. "The True Market Value of a Good Petroleum Engineer: A Technical Perspective". En SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition. SPE, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/206272-ms.

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Abstract Defined by SPE as the application of basic and engineering sciences to the finding, development, and recovery of oil, gas and other resources from wells, petroleum engineering (PE) has been throughout the years falsely thought of as an amalgamation of other disciplines applied to the exploration and recovery of hydrocarbons. Integrating all PE subdisciplines in a manner efficient for teaching and learning is essential for securing the abundance of well-rounded market-attractive professionals. This paper discusses advantages individuals with PE background experience should exhibit in their employment in the oil and gas industry and academia. There is no point for students in going to school for a degree that will not hand them a competitive edge within their discipline. For graduate PEs, the job market is dependent on the quality of their respective academic programs and by extension to the quality of the teaching faculty. A steady oil and gas job market may not necessarily warrant robust employment opportunities, particularly straight after graduation. In a discipline like PE, where almost everything that matters takes place thousands of feet underground, apportioning credit for successes or responsibility for failures is itself a challenge. Decreases in student enrollments in PE programs reported by various universities during times of low oil and gas prices poses questions about the future of the PEs discipline, despite the steady demand for oil and gas in the world's energy mix. Academic programs interested in facilitating a smooth transition of their graduates into the industry should work in conjunction with practitioners to provide the correct balance between theory and practice in their coursework ensuring that once employment opportunities are created, they get filled with candidates of relevant education and training. PE degree-holding candidates should be the natural first choice for PE positions. This means that their educational and professional backgrounds should be providing them with an undisputed advantage which places them a leg above candidates from other disciplines. For instance, for a well completions job opening, there should not be a better alternative than a good PE specialized in well completions. If every PE graduate comes out of his or her program with a skillset which is superior to that of his or her competition, he or she will be the preferred choice for an oil and gas job.
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Shan Wei, Jarrett Yeo y Yeo Chai Kiat. "CalixBoost: A Stock Market Index Predictor using Gradient Boosting Machines Ensemble". En 8th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence (ARIN 2022). Academy and Industry Research Collaboration Center (AIRCC), 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.5121/csit.2022.121009.

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The potential of machine learning has sustained the interest of both academia and industry in stock market prediction over the past decade. This paper aims to integrate modern techniques such as Gradient Boosting Machines (GBMs) into a novel ensemble called CalixBoost which is a resource-efficient and accurate stock index predictor. Data comprising macro-economic metrics and technical financial indicators, as well as sentiment analysis of social media using a simple and fast but effective rule-based model are used in this paper. Other techniques include model tuning with Bayesian Optimization, temporal consistency analysis for invariant feature selection over random trial-and-error, feature importance and inter-feature relationships analysis using a unified game theory approach using Shapley values. Lastly, the model will be evaluated using a novel holdout method, viz. on two separate test datasets whose datapoints are collected under (i) normal economic activity and (ii) during a black swan (financial downturn). The experimental results show that our model outperforms previous methods and can achieve a good prediction performance with 84.88% accuracy, 0.0956 RMSE, 0.0573 MAE and 4.19% MAPE.
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Dias, Rui, Hortense Santos, Paulo Alexandre, Paula Heliodoro y Cristina Vasco. "RANDOM WALKS AND MARKET EFFICIENCY TESTS: EVIDENCE FOR US AND AFRICAN CAPITAL MARKETS". En 5th International Scientific Conference – EMAN 2021 – Economics and Management: How to Cope With Disrupted Times. Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans, Belgrade, Serbia, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.31410/eman.s.p.2021.17.

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The 2020 Russia-Saudi Oil Price War was an economic war triggered in March 2020 by Saudi Arabia in response to Russia’s refusal to reduce oil production to keep oil prices at a moderate level. This economic conflict resulted in a sharp drop in the price of oil in 2020, as well as crashes in international markets. In the light of these events, our aim was to test the efficient market hypothesis, in its weak form, in the stock markets of Botswana (BSE), Egypt (EGX 100), Kenya (NSE 20), Moroccan All Shares (MASI), Tunisia (Tunindex), and the MARKET of the USA (DOWJONES INDUSTRIALS), in the period of Septem¬ber 2, 2019 to January 11, 2021. The results therefore support the evidence that the random walk hypoth¬esis is not supported by the financial markets analyzed in this period of global pandemic. The values of variance ratios are lower than the unit, which implies that the yields are autocorrelated in time and, there is reversal to the mean. In order to validate the results, we estimate the model αDFA that shows that the stock markets NSE 20 (0.75), TUNINDEX (0.69), MASI (0.63), EGX 100 (0.64), BSE (0.61), DOW JONES (0.58) show autocorrelation in their profitability, that is, these markets show signs of (in) efficiency, in its weak form, persistence in profitability, validating the results of the variance test by Rankings and Wright Signs. In conclusion we can show that the U.S. stock market has more market efficiency when compared to the African stock markets analyzed. The authors consider that the results achieved are of interest to investors looking for opportunities for portfolio diversification in these regional stock markets.
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Uslu, Kamil y Mustafa Batuhan Tufaner. "Effects of the Theory of Regulation on Financial Crisis". En International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c06.01369.

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The role of the financial sector in the financial crisis occurring in the world economy and market failures throughout history, has brought the debate over financial regulation. Systemic risk cases, which plays a major role in the occurrence of the financial crisis, to ensure efficiency and stability of financial markets has revealed the need for regulations. The aim of this study is to evaluate how the impact of the financial crisis on the regulation theory. Financial crisis, leading to market failures, moral hazard problems and rent-seeking activities, economic and social structure has created negative. In this context, the pre-crisis and post-crisis regulatory measures can be taken, it is possible to say that the country would have a positive effect on macroeconomic fundamentals.
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Kuzu, Serdar. "The Effects of the Illiquidity Premium on Security Returns and its Importantance for Eurasia". En International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c02.00269.

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This study investigates the illiquidity premium, which has major impact on Eurasian economies, and its term structure. For this aim, The Germany which is very important for Europa and Asia countries is investigated. In this study, the effects of the term structure of the illiquidity premium on government and corporate bonds and “the return of securities – illiquidity premium – expectation theory relationship” are investigated through various parameters and formulations. Consequently, the study is used to Kempf, Korn and Uhrig-Homburg’ study, which aims to investigate relations between German public sector’s bonds and private sector’s bonds and it was realized 2009. It is found that illiquidity premium varies in short, medium and long terms depending upon different factors and the curve that connects illiquidity premiums with different terms is a U shaped curve. Studies that use traditional methods in asset pricing evaluate the illiquidity premium as a systematic risk criteria. But, illiquidity is a risk factor that should be investigated alone instead of be investigated with all of the risk factors. Financial market makers aim to make arrangements that remove the problems arising from the level of liquidity, in other words increase the level of liquidity, and contribute to the formation of efficient price.Further studies in this field will be very important in the development process of corporate bonds market with the decrease of interest rates in international markets and the issue of new corporate bonds in developing countries recently.
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Yılmaz, Yavuz, Rainer Kurz, Ayşe Özmen y Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber. "A New Algorithm for Scheduling Condition-Based Maintenance of Gas Turbines". En ASME Turbo Expo 2015: Turbine Technical Conference and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/gt2015-43545.

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In developed electricity markets, the deregulation boosted competition among companies participating in the electricity market. Therefore, the enhanced reliability and availability of gas turbine systems is an industry obligation. Not only providing the available power with minimum operation and maintenance costs, but also guaranteeing high efficiency are additional requisites and efficiency loss of the power plants leads to a loss of money for the electricity generation companies. Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) is a modern methodology of statistical learning, data mining and estimation theory that is significant in both regression and classification is a form of flexible non-parametric regression analysis capable of modeling complex data. In this study, single shaft, 6MW class industrial gas turbines located at various sites have been monitored. The performance monitoring of a gas turbine consisted of hourly measurements of various input variables over an extended period of time. Using such measurements, predictive models for gas turbine heat rate and the gas turbine axial compressor discharge pressure values have been generated. The measured values have been compared with the values obtained as a result of the MARS models. The MARS-based models are obtained with the combination of gas turbine performance input and target variables and the complementary meteorological data. The results are presented, discussed, and conclusions are drawn for modern energy and cost efficient gas turbine and power plant maintenance management as the outcomes of this study.
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Informes sobre el tema "Efficient market theory"

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Leonardo, Fabio Morales, Carlos Ospino y Amaral Nicole. Online Vacancies and its Role in Labor Market Performance. Banco de la República, septiembre de 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/be.1174.

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This paper assesses whether the expansion of online job vacancies leads to a more efficient labor market. We provide compelling evidence that the increase in online job vacancy penetration in Colombia has had an enhancing effect on the labor market's efficiency by making it easier for firms to find workers to fill their job openings. An estimation of the Beveridge Curve (unemployment to vacancies relationship), a well-established theoretical development from search models, concludes that policies that increase online vacancy posting enhance efficiency. We implement a differences in differences design to take advantage of a regulation, which mandates that all authorized online vacancy providers report any online vacancy to the Public Employment Service in Colombia. We find that sub-segments of the labor market with a relevant fraction of their vacancies posted online, presented on average nearly 15% lower vacancy rate for a given unemployment rate. Therefore, for these sub-segments, the Beveridge curve shifted inwards due to efficiency enhancements. These findings support active search policies to reduce information barriers, which reduce the odds of firms and workers finding one other in the labor market. Policies as those implemented by the Public Employment Service in Colombia seem to be beneficial.
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Finkelstain, Israel, Steven Buccola y Ziv Bar-Shira. Pooling and Pricing Schemes for Marketing Agricultural Products. United States Department of Agriculture, agosto de 1993. http://dx.doi.org/10.32747/1993.7568099.bard.

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In recent years there has been a growing concern over the performance of Israel and U.S. agricultural marketing organizations. In Israel, poor performance of some marketing institutions has led to radical reforms. Examples are the two leading export industries - citrus and flowers. In the U.S., growth of local market power is eliminating competitive row product prices which served as the basis for farmer cooperative payment plans. This research studies, theoretically, several aspects of the above problem and develops empirical methods to assess their relative importance. The theoretical part deals with two related aspects of the operation of processing and marketing firms. The first is the technological structure of these firms. To this end, we formalize a detailed theory that describes the production process itself and the firm's decision. The model accounts for multiple products and product characteristics. The usefulness of the theory for measurement of productivity and pricing of raw material is demonstrated. The second aspect of the processing and marketing firm that we study is unique to the agricultural sector, where many such firms are cooperatives. In such cooperative an efficient and fair mechanism for purchasing raw materials from members is crucial to successful performances of the firm. We focus on: 1) pricing of raw materials. 2) comparison of employment of quota and price regimes by the cooperative to regulate the quantities, supplied by members. We take into consideration that the cooperative management is subject to pressure from member farmers. 3) Tier pricing for raw materials in order to ensure efficiency and zero profits at the cooperative level. This problem is examined in both closed and open cooperatives. The empirical part focuses in: 1) the development of methodologies for estimating demand for differentiated products; 2) assessing farmers response to component pricing; 3) measurement of potential and actual exploitation of market power by an agricultural marketing firm. The usefulness of the developed methodologies are demonstrated by several application to agricultural sub-sectors, including: U.S. dairy industry, Oregon wine industry, Israeli Cotton industry and Israeli Citrus industry.
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Dow, James y Gary Gorton. Stock Market Efficiency and Economic Efficiency: Is There a Connection? Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, agosto de 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w5233.

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Titman, Sheridan. The Modigliani and Miller Theorem and Market Efficiency. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, diciembre de 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w8641.

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Considine, Jennifer, Philip Galkin y Abdullah Aldayel. Global Crude Oil Storage Index: A New Benchmark for Energy Policy. King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, septiembre de 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.30573/ks--2022-mp01.

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The global oil market dwarfs other commodity markets. Its size and role in the energy and industrial value chains underscore its significant economic and geopolitical impacts. Thus, the consequences of oil price fluctuations extend far beyond the oil industry and can be viewed as a barometer of trends in the global economy. Several oil price benchmarks currently compete in the global market. The most popular ones, such as Brent or West Texas Intermediate (WTI), are backed by a sufficient supply of the underlying crude. They also meet the criteria for efficient trading, hedging and speculating — including having sufficient liquidity, developed futures markets, low transaction costs and strong institutional support.
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Soloviev, Vladimir N., Andrii O. Bielinskyi y Natalia A. Kharadzjan. Coverage of the Coronavirus Pandemic through Entropy Measures. CEUR Workshop Proceedings, marzo de 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.31812/123456789/4427.

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The rapidly evolving coronavirus pandemic brings a devastating effect on the entire world and its economy as awhole. Further instability related to COVID-19will negatively affect not only on companies and financial markets, but also on traders and investors that have been interested in saving their investment, minimizing risks, and making decisions such as how to manage their resources, how much to consume and save, when to buy or sell stocks, etc., and these decisions depend on the expectation of when to expect next critical change. Trying to help people in their subsequent decisions, we demonstrate the possibility of constructing indicators of critical and crash phenomena on the example of Bitcoin market crashes for further demonstration of their efficiency on the crash that is related to the coronavirus pandemic. For this purpose, the methods of the theory of complex systems have been used. Since the theory of complex systems has quite an extensive toolkit for exploring the nonlinear complex system, we take a look at the application of the concept of entropy in finance and use this concept to construct 6 effective entropy measures: Shannon entropy, Approximate entropy, Permutation entropy, and 3 Recurrence based entropies. We provide computational results that prove that these indicators could have been used to identify the beginning of the crash and predict the future course of events associated with the current pandemic.
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Zilberman, David y Eithan Hochman. Price Evaluation and Allocation of Water under Alternative Water Rights System - Part II. United States Department of Agriculture, julio de 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.32747/1995.7573067.bard.

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This project is a continuation of US 2081-91. Together they develop a conceptual and empirical framework to analyze alternative forms of water reform that lead to efficient pricing of water. Our analysis demonstrates that the transition from water rights systems to water trading may lead to improved resource allocation even when overall availability of water resources declines. We introduce two systems of water trading, passive markets and active markets, and show that passive markets lead to efficient resource allocation with lower transaction costs. We demonstrate that both methods of trading are superior to block pricing. We identify the political economic situations that would lead to each type of water resource allocation. Examples from Israel and California are used to demonstrate the conceptual results.
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Lamont, Susan J., E. Dan Heller y Avigdor Cahaner. Prediction of Immunocompetence and Resistance to Disease by Using Molecular Markers of the Major Histocompatibility Complex. United States Department of Agriculture, septiembre de 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.32747/1994.7568780.bard.

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This project utilized two live-animal populations in an integrated research program to identify molecular markers for immune response and disease resistance. The populations each had their foundation from meat-type commercial breeder chicken lines of their respective countries. Investigations effectively used unique availability of resources in each country to study commercial-type environments in Israel and line-crosses with diverse inbred lines in the US. Two bacterial systems were investigated to cover both respiratory and gastrointestinal, and primary and secondary, infections. Individual experimental groups of animals were evaluated for combinations of vaccine antibody levels, response to pathogen challenge, growth parameters, genetic background and molecular markers. The positive association of antibody level with resistance to disease was confirmed. Effectiveness of genetic selection for vaccine antibody response level was demonstrated. Molecular markers, both inside and outside the MHC region, were associated with antibody response and resistance to disease. Markers were shown to have a generalized effect, by association with multiple traits of immune response and disease resistance. The impact of genetic background on marker effect was shown to be important. The overall results demonstrate the effectiveness of selection on vaccine antibody response and the potential of molecular marker-assisted selection to improve efficiency of production of meat-type chickens by reducing genetic susceptibility to disease.
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Rincón-Torres, Andrey Duván, Kimberly Rojas-Silva y Juan Manuel Julio-Román. The Interdependence of FX and Treasury Bonds Markets: The Case of Colombia. Banco de la República, septiembre de 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/be.1171.

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We study the interdependence of FX and Treasury Bonds (TES) markets in Colombia. To do this, we estimate a heteroskedasticity identified VAR model on the returns of the COP/USD exchange rate (TRM) and bond prices, as well as event-analysis models for return volatilities, number of quotes, quote volume, and bid/ask spreads. The data under analysis consists of 5-minute intraday bid/ask US dollar prices and bond quotes, for an assortment of bond species. For these species we also have the number of bid/ask quotes as well as their volume. We found, also, that the exchange rate conveys information to the TES market, but the opposite does not completely hold: A one percent COP depreciation leads to a persistent reduction of TES prices between 0.05% and 0.22%. However, a 1% TES price increase has a very small effect and not entirely significant on the exchange rate, i.e. a COP appreciation between 0.001% and 0.009%. Furthermore, TRM return volatility increases do not affect bond return volatility but its liquidity, i.e. the bid/ask quote number and volume. These results are coherent with the fact that the FX market more efficiently reflects the effect of shocks than the TES market, which may be due to its low liquidity and concentration on a specific habitat. These results have implications for the design of financial stability policies as well as for private portfolio design, rebalancing and hedging.
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Fuentes, Rolando, Shahid Hasan y Frank Felder. How Can Energy Storage Catalyze the Electricity Policies of Gulf Cooperation Council Members? Issues and Options. King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, septiembre de 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.30573/ks--2021-dp15.

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Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members are working in parallel to reform their electricity markets and achieve ambitious renewable energy deployment goals. The motivation for this agenda is multifaceted, and increasing economic efficiency is one of several reasons for these efforts. By introducing markets in the power sector (i.e., liberalizing this sector), these countries aim to reduce the sector’s reliance on the public budget.
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