Tesis sobre el tema "Demography"
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Coast, Ernestina. "Maasai demography". Thesis, University College London (University of London), 2000. http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1317547/.
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Blochel, Alexander. "Population demography’s potential effect on stoichiometry : Assessing the growth rate hypothesis with demography". Thesis, Umeå universitet, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-130908.
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The elemental composition within structured insect populations was tested by creating a new method to analyze how variables (survival, growth and fecundity) within a population matrix could potentially affect the stoichiometric regime of a structured population at steady state. This was done by focusing on if the growth rate hypothesis, which states that there is a linear relationship between an individual growth rate and the percent of phosphorus within the individual, works at a population level. This was analyzed by creating and combining two matrices: the matrix-population containing the variables and a matrix containing the element phosphorus and dry weight. Data from a beetle species, Chrysomela tremulae F., was used as a guideline to create eight stoichiometric generic populations, where survival, growth and fecundity were tested in each of the eight generic populations. The results showed deviations from the growth rate hypothesis, suggesting that the hypothesis does not always work within structured populations. However, more research is needed to predict exactly how this hypothesis works in populations. Overall, this new method for analyzing stoichiometry within structured populations is a useful analytical tool, but there is a need for analyzing the results from these models in a more efficient way.
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Žamac, Jovan. "Education, pensions, and demography /". Uppsala : Department of Economics, Uppsala University, 2006. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-7433.
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Lovina, O. O. "Population demography of Nigeria". Thesis, Sumy State University, 2014. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/36345.
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The most populous country in Africa, Nigeria accounts for approximately one sixth of the African population (or one fifth of Sub-Saharan African population). Approximately 50 % of Nigerians are urban dwellers. At least 24 cities have populations of more than 100,000. The variety of customs, languages, and traditions among Nigeria's 389 ethnic groups gives the country a cultural diversity. Nigeria suffers from a population explosion, with a current population in excess of 170 million (2012) and a growth rate of more than 2 % p.a. (or a doubling time of about 30 years), with all the associated problems such as youth bulge, crime, ethnic tension and high emigration.
When you are citing the document, use the following link http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/36345
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Kolk, Martin. "Multigenerational Processes in Demography". Doctoral thesis, Stockholms universitet, Sociologiska institutionen, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-106987.
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Contemporary social science research has often focused on nuclear family relationships, and has largely neglected kinship and family outside the nuclear household. In this doctoral thesis I explore demographic issues from a multigenerational perspective, using Swedish register data and mathematical modeling. In different chapters I examine intergenerational transmission of fertility—the relationship between the number of siblings and other kin, and the fertility of an individual. The thesis demonstrates the possibilities for empirical research on family and kinship based on Swedish register data. Unique linkage opportunities across three and four generations are applied to previously unexplored research questions. The studies in the thesis demonstrate the importance of kin outside the household, such as grandparents, aunts/uncles, and cousins, for fertility and family dynamics.Samhällsvetenskaplig forskning har i hög grad varit fokuserad på kärnfamiljer, och i lägre grad undersökt släktskap utanför hushållet. Den här avhandlingen undersöker demografiska frågor utifrån ett flergenerationsperspektiv med hjälp av svenska registerdata och matematisk modellering. I de olika studierna undersöker jag den sociala överföringen av barnafödande mellan fler generationer—sambanden mellan antalet syskon och andra familjemedlemmar, och en persons barnafödande. Avhandlingen demonstrerar hur svenska registerdata möjliggör empirisk forskning om familj och släktskap. De unika kopplingsmöjligheterna över tre till fyra generationer appliceras på tidigare outforskade forskningsfrågor. Avhandlingen visar vikten av släktskap utanför kärnfamiljen, så som far/mor-föräldrar samt kusiner, för familjedemografiska processer.
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Verdery, Ashton M. Entwisle Barbara. "Demography and social network differentiation". Chapel Hill, N.C. : University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 2010. http://dc.lib.unc.edu/u?/etd,2938.
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Thesis (M.A.)--University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 2010.Title from electronic title page (viewed Jun. 23, 2010). "... in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in the Department of Sociology." Discipline: Sociology; Department/School: Sociology.
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St, Onge Kate. "Demography and Polyploidy in Capsella". Doctoral thesis, Uppsala universitet, Evolutionär funktionsgenomik, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-136696.
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Studies of demography and population structure give insight into important evolutionary processes such as speciation and diversification. In the present work I perform such studies in the genus Capsella, which has three species: C. grandiflora, an outcrossing diploid, C. rubella a selfing diploid, and C. bursa-pastoris a selfing tetraploid. These three species make a good model system for evolutionary studies because they encompass two major plant evolutionary processes: mating system shifts and polyploidization. To conduct my studies I have gathered a large number of samples across the distributions of each species and scored them both phenotypically and genotypically: more specifically we measured flowering time and collected DNA sequence data. In the tetraploid C. bursa-pastoris we applied an association mapping approach which takes population structure into account to search for genetic variation associated with variation in flowering time. Flowering time is an important and highly adaptive trait which is frequently subject to natural selection. We found evidence of association between flowering time and several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within the flowering locus C (FLC) and cryptochrome 1 (CRY1). In the case of FLC these SNPs code for nonconsensus splice site variation in one of the two copies of the gene. The SNPs could potentially have functional consequences and our results imply that non-functionalization of duplicate genes could be an important source of phenotypic variation. Using a novel coalescent based approach, we investigated the polyploid origin of C. bursa-pastoris and find evidence supporting a recent autopolyploid origin of this species. In the two diploid species, I use sequence data to investigate population structure and demographic history and to assess the effects of selfing on C. rubella. Observed patterns of population structure and genetic diversity in C. rubella can be explained by a combination of both demographic history and mating system. Observed patterns in C. grandiflora suggest that the investigated populations do not deviate strongly from the SNM, which has rarely been found in modern demographic studies. Finally, we investigate the effect of sampling strategy on demographic inference. Extensive sampling both within and across our populations allow us to empirically test the effect of sampling strategy on demographic inference. We complement the empirical analysis with simulations and conclude that the effect of sampling strategy is in many cases weak compared with that of demographic events. Nevertheless, these effects are real and have the potential to lead to false inference and therefore sampling strategy should be carefully considered in demographic studies.Felaktigt tryckt som Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Science and Technology 725
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Metcalf, Charlotte Jessica Eland. "Evolutionary demography of monocarpie perennials". Thesis, Imperial College London, 2005. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.416378.
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Atkinson, John William. "Demography of supermassive black holes". Thesis, University of Hertfordshire, 2003. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.397769.
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KAI, HAMILTON MASSATAKA. "THREE ESSAYS ON ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY". PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2009. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=15322@1.
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CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICOEssa tese é composta de três ensaios. O primeiro ensaio estuda a relação entre renda e número de filhos no Brasi da primeira metade do século XX. Ao contrário do que os modelos econômicos sobre regimes demográficos preveriam, os dados em cross-section por coorte mostram uma relação consistentemente negativa entre renda e número de filhos ao longo de todo o período analisado. O segundo ensaio mostra que a tecnologia doméstica de saúde desempenha um papel crucial nas escolhas reprodutivas das famílias e, ao alterar o entendimento usual sobre o regime demográfico malthusiano, o modelo é capaz de explicar o resultado empírico do primeiro ensaio. Finalmente, o terceiro ensaio avalia os determinantes das correlação entre a escolaridade da mulher e a condição de saúde dela própria e de seus filhos.
This thesis presents three essays in economic demography. The first essay studies the relationship between socioeconomic status and fertility in Brazil. Cross-section data shows a negative income-fertility relationship in cohorts of the first half of the twentieth century, an unexpected result according to the usual economic models of demographic transitions. In order to explain the empirical puzzle of the first essay, a model which explores the effects of the household health technology on fertility choices is presented in the second essay. This model changes in important ways the usual agreement on the Malthusian demographic regime. Finally, the last essay analysis the determinants of the correlation between education of women and health conditions of both her own and her children.
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Gaines, Eleanor Prindiville. "Snowy Plover Demography in Oregon". PDXScholar, 2019. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/5004.
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A thorough understanding of demographic parameters and their contribution to overall population growth is fundamental to effective conservation of small populations, but this information is often lacking. The Pacific Coast population of the Western Snowy Plover (Charadrius nivosus nivosus) is listed as threatened and has been the target of long-term, multi-pronged management in Oregon. The Oregon coastal population has been intensively monitored since 1990, and over 80% of the population is color banded, but a comprehensive analysis of demographic parameters and the effect of management on vital rates and population growth has been unavailable until now. Here, the author used capture-mark-resight techniques to document survival at each life stage and to explore environmental and management factors that best explained variation in survival over a 25-year study period. The author analyzed the effects of habitat restoration, exclosure use, and lethal predator management on survival at appropriate life stages and evaluated the effects of one management option, lethal predator control, on overall population growth. Chick survival to fledging improved dramatically after the chicks' 5th day, was higher in years with lethal predator management, and was highest during the peak of the long brood-rearing season. Cold weather, particularly during the chicks' first 5 days, had a negative effect on survival to fledging. Juvenile survival from fledging to the following spring declined over the study period, but rebounded after implementation of lethal predator management. Adult survival was lower in wetter-than-average winters and higher in years with predator management. The author used the survival analyses and productivity data collected over 25 years in a matrix population model to reveal that population growth is most sensitive to changes in adult survival, and that while predator management is important for continued growth, its use may be scaled back by as much as 50% and still maintain a growing population. My results, encompassing all phases of this species' life cycle, demonstrate that with holistic and thoughtful adaptive management, and with the cooperation of numerous agencies, a balance can be struck between protection and control of native species to bring about recovery of species threatened with (local) extinction.
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TACKE, TILMAN. "Essays on economics and demography". Doctoral thesis, Università degli Studi di Roma "Tor Vergata", 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/2108/1146.
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Chapter 1 indicates the relevancy of the share of national income concentrated among a country's richest 20% for health outcomes of the lowest three quintiles of the income distribution independent of their personal absolute income. A comparison of 93 countries suggests that the income distance between an individual and the people the individual directly observes at work or in the neighborhood might not be the only form of relative deprivation, but that the distance to the wealthy might matter as well. The results are not caused by the distribution of absolute income: previous research has shown that the level of GDP per capita is the single most important determinant of health outcomes (see Prichett and Summers, 1996), which our results confirm. The chapter discusses possible explanations for the link between income distribution and health outcomes. Suggestions for two explanations are found: public disinvestment in human capital in countries where income is unequally distributed and relative deprivation, i.e. social comparison resulting in stress, risk taking behavior, or unwise consumption expenditure.
Chapter 2 investigates the relative efficiency of public and private health care spending in reducing infant and child mortality using cross-national data for 163 countries. The analysis shows that an increase in public funds is both, significantly correlated with lower mortality rates and significantly more efficient in reducing mortality than private health care expenditure. The results indicate that an increase in private health care expenditure might even be associated with higher, not lower, mortality. Although some of the estimated difference in the efficiency of public and private health care expenditure can be explained by geographies and socioeconomic factors, chapter 1 concludes that the indications for such difference are robust.
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ANGELINI, Daniele. "Essays on economics and demography". Doctoral thesis, European University Institute, 2021. https://hdl.handle.net/1814/73248.
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This thesis is a collection of three essays on the effect of demographic changes on the economy. In Chapter 1, I empirically document a non-monotonic effect of an aging workforce on the adoption of ICT (new technology) and on productivity which I rationalize using a task-based OLG model. Initially, the aging of the population has a positive effect on productivity as it reduces the labor supply and increases the capital stock triggering the adoption of new (labor-saving) technologies. However, as young workers (with a comparative advantage in the use of new technologies) become scarce, further aging depresses the adoption of new technologies and reduces productivity. The model also provides policy recommendations regarding the optimal retirement age. In Chapter 2, co-authored with Max Brès, we analyze the effect of a change in the age composition of consumers on sector aggregates. To identify the effect coming from the demand side of the economy, we use a shift-share IV approach and instrument the change in the age composition of demand with foreign demographics. We find that only middle-aged consumers are associated with higher prices, lower production, and lower productivity suggesting that the age composition of demand affects the economy through changes in the market structure. In Chapter 3, co-authored with Max Brès, we propose a model with age-specific search costs and elasticity of substitution to highlight the mechanisms behind the empirical results in Chapter 2. The model shows that an increase in the share of middle-aged consumers (who have high search costs and low elasticity of substitution) leads to an increase in both within-sector and between-sectors competition, increasing prices and reducing production and productivity. To capture general equilibrium effects and substitution across sectors, we nest the calibrated sector-level model within a multi-sector general equilibrium framework. We find that the general equilibrium model substantially dampens the sector-level effects due to lower substitution across sectors. Fitting the model using US demographic data, we find that in the period 1995-2004, as the share of middle-aged increased, the age demand channel contributed to a reduction in US GDP growth, while in the period 2005-2019, as the middle-aged grew old, the age demand channel had a positive effect on US GDP growth.1 Workforce Aging and Technology Adoption 2 The effect of a change in the Age Composition of Consumers: a Shift- Share IV empirical approach 3 The effect of a change in the Age Composition of Consumers: a Theo-retical Framework
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Le, Cunff Yann. "Aging : between evolution and demography". Paris 7, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012PA077259.
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Le vieillissement est un phénomène multi-échelle complexe, à l'interface entre évolution et démographie. La théorie du 'Disposable Soma' propose d'expliquer le vieillissement comme résultant d'un compromis entre maintenance et reproduction, influencé par l'évolution. Bien qu'expliquant le phénomène de vieillissement au niveau de l'individu, cette théorie n'explique pas les différentes dynamiques courbes de mortalités observées dans différentes espèces. A l'inverse, des approches biodémographiques ont montré que ces courbes peuvent être reproduites en choisissant avec soin hétérogénéité de la population mais négligent l'effet de l'évolution. Dans cette thèse, ces notions sont combinées en cinq étapes successives. Le premier chapitre montre que les réseaux biologiques développent une résistance aux perturbations. Le second introduit un coût pour la reproduction : les individus co-évoluent avec les propriétés de la population. Troisièmement, le vieillissement est introduit, via un compromis entre maintenance et reproduction et chaque individu a sa propre stratégie d'allocation de ressources. Au cours des générations, l'hétérogénéité des populations évoluent et les courbes de mortalité observées après plusieurs centaines de générations reprciduisent les courbes des différents organismes modèles. Quatrièmement, cette approche est développée pour prédire les courbes de mortalité sous différentes contraintes environnementales. Finalement, le cinquième chapitre propose un modèle pour l'évolution de l'hétérogénéité, appliqué au vieillissement : toute information héréditaire est vue comme une distribution de probabilité que la sélection naturelle modifie au cours des générationsAging is a complex, multiscale issue, at the interface between evolution and demography. The disposable soma theory, an evolutionary theory of aging, proposes that trade-offs between maintenance and reproduction drive aging. Despite its success at describing similarities in aging at the individual level, the disposable soma theory does not provide insights about mortality patterns observed across species. By contrast, biodemographic studies of aging show that population heterogeneity explains these mortality patterns. Yet, they do not address whether population heterogeneity derives from evolutionary processes. In this PhD thesis, I propose to bridge these gaps in five steps. First, I tackle the evolution of biological networks to show that natural selection leads to increased robustness to perturbations. Second, I introduce costs for reproduction in this model : individual robustness now co-evolves with population stability. Third, damage is allowed to accumulate over age. Each individual has its own resource allocation strategy between maintenance and reproduction. The distribution of strategies in the population evolves over generations in response to environmental constraints: evolved populations display mortality patterns which reproduce those of yeast, worms, flies and humans. Fourth, the model predicts population heterogeneity for different forms of trade-offs and different stress conditions. Fifth, an evolutionary framework is proposed to account for the evolution of heterogeneity: any heritable information should be described as a distribution of possible phenotypes. The effect of natural selection orly consists in shaping this distribution
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Crommentuijn, Léon Emanuel Maria. "Regional household differentials structures and processes = Regionale huishoudensverschillen : structuren en processen /". Amsterdam : Thesis Publishers, 1997. http://catalog.hathitrust.org/api/volumes/oclc/37633887.html.
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Jelbert, K. "The comparative demography of invasive plants". Thesis, University of Exeter, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10871/34994.
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Biodiversity, ecosystems, industry and human health are threatened by invasive plant species. The costs of mitigating damages run into billions of pounds per annum. Fundamental to the control of invasive plant species is an ability to predict which species will become invasive. Yet identification of predictive differences between invasive and non-invasive species has proven difficult to pinpoint. In this thesis I identify several weaknesses within published literature, and using field experiments and meta-analyses we address these to find consistent predictors of invasiveness amongst plants. Specifically, I recognize that predictors of invasiveness can be identified by studying plant species in the native range because species may undergo phenotypic and demographic changes following naturalization (Chapters 2 – 5). I also recognize the importance of comparing globally invasive and non-invasive species, and the importance of accounting for phylogenetic relationships so as not to inflate or conceal differences (Chapters 2 – 4). Finally, I investigate whether particular analyses are more appropriate for investigating life history and demographic differences (Chapter 5). This thesis comprises an introductory chapter (Chapter 1), four data chapters (Chapters 2 - 5) and a general discussion (Chapter 6). Chapters 2 and 3 compare life history traits of plant species known to be invasive elsewhere, with their exported but non-invasive sympatric relatives in the native range. Chapter 4 utilizes Population Projection Matrices held within the COMPADRE Plant Matrix Database, to compare demographic projections of stable and transient dynamics of invasive and non-invasive plants; and Chapter 5 compares ten metrics, derived from Population Projection Matrices, of seven invasive species between the native and invaded range to determine if there are demographic or life history differences that facilitate invasion, and to identify those analyses that are most likely to reveal such differences. I find reproductive capacity to be a predictor of invasiveness, and that analyses of transient dynamics are more likely than analyses of projected stable dynamics to reveal demographic or life history differences between invasive and non-invasive species or populations of plants. I discuss these findings in the context of invasive risk assessment protocols and highlight future research opportunities.
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Vogel, Harry Landis. "The influence of rural amenities on non-metropolitan population change in the United States from, 1980-2000". Diss., Manhattan, Kan. : Kansas State University, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/2097/232.
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Arlt, Debora. "Habitat selection : demography and individual decisions /". Uppsala : Dept. of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 2007. http://epsilon.slu.se/200717.pdf.
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Bruér, Mattias. "Empirical studies in demography and macroeconomics /". Uppsala : Dept. of Economics [Nationalekonomiska institutionen], Univ, 2004. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-4200.
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Fields, Dail L. "Relational demography and employee job satisfaction". Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 1994. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/29983.
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Verropoulou, Georgia. "The demography of Cyprus, 1881-1982". Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 1998. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/1495/.
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This research aims at determining the demographic characteristics of the population of Cyprus over 1881-1982, using all available data from censuses, registration and surveys. The thesis consists of two main parts. The first part focuses on the period from 1881 to 1960 and refers to the entire population. The second part deals with the period after 1960 and mainly focuses on the majority Greek Cypriot population, virtually no information being available for the Turkish minority after this time; the island was partitioned between Greeks and Turks in 1974. Chapter 1 describes the objectives of the thesis and the data available. Chapters 2-7 refer only to the period up to 1960. Chapter 2 deals with the growth of the population and changes in the distribution by age and sex. In Chapter 3 it is established that mortality transition was under way by the 1880s while it is argued that female mortality was slightly higher than male mortality before 1911. Chapter 4 traces changes in marriage patterns after 1911 and their relationship to changing ratios of males to females. In Chapter 5 it is argued that although fertility had decreased slightly by the 1940s, an uninterrupted declining trend was only established in the 1950s. In Chapter 6 migration is considered; emigration from Cyprus was substantial in the period 1955-1960. In Chapter 7 differences between Greeks and Turks in mortality, fertility and nuptiality are examined. In Chapter 8 it is established that fertility for Greek Cypriots had reached low levels though above replacement by 1976 while mortality had reached low levels by 1982. There was substantial emigration between 1974 and 1978. In Chapter 9 the validity of the mortality and fertility estimates is assessed by using them to project the population of Cyprus from 1921 onwards. Chapter 10 presents a summary of the major findings.
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Hyder, Kieran. "Barnacle demography : a matrix modelling approach". Thesis, University of Southampton, 1999. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.285626.
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Sadie, J. L. (Johannes L. ). 1918. "The economic demography of South Africa". Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/51963.
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Thesis (DCom)--Stellenbosch University, 2000.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: It is remarkable that population, which is at the centre of the economic problem - the Wealth if not the Poverty of Nations - has received scant attention in economic research in South Africa. Which is probably why we can have a NEW - so designated in the Draft Report - population policy propounded by government (in 1997) which manifests little appreciation of the economics of population. This dissertation is an attempt to demonstrate why the void should be filled and to bring to light specific topics within the broader subject matter that could be fruitfully researched. The demographic scene in South Africa lends itself to a telling demonstration of the economic effects of population movements by way of contrasting the experience of the high fertility, youthful Black population - with a total fertility rate of around 37 after having been 6,75 in the 1950s - and that of the demographically older non-Blacks, among whom the Whites exhibit a fertility level way below the replacement rate of 2,1, while that of the Asians (Indians) and Coloureds has almost reached that rate. Since the former has a share of more than a dominant three-quarters in the aggregate South African population, the emphasis is inevitably on the economic consequences of rapid population growth and its attendant demographic magnitudes: fertility, mortality, migration, age and sex composition, spatial distribution and, what is called "economic quality" of the population as manifested in its supply of enterprise. The analysis is presented in the traditional supply and demand paradigm. Supply is examined by linking demographic forces to the five factors of production whose co-operation is responsible for the generation of the national product: entrepreneurship, (ordinary) labour, natural resources, technology and capital. The population has to generate an adequate supply of entrepreneurs, and the two human factors of production have to have one or more of the non-human factors at their disposal to accommodate the population economically. Proliferating human numbers can be destructive of natural resources, and in conflict with the formation of capital, the accumulation of technology and their potential economic welfare-enhancing operation. The demand aspects are analysed by linking on to the four macro demand components in the national accounts system: Household consumption, Government consumption, Investment (visa- vis saving) and foreign trade. Some of the issues discussed are: the stability deriving from a population elasticity of demand close to 1,0; the comparative significance of the population versus the affluence factor; the role of high fertility in the acquisition, at the election polls, of economic power via political power, and its consequences for the diversion of demand; the capital absorbed in "demographic investments"; and the significance of the South African factor endowment for its foreign trade. From the above analyses conclusions could be drawn about econormc growth, poverty, unemployment and the economic value of a life. In human populations, in sub-Saharan Africa at least, quantity is the adversary of quality.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Dit is merkwaardig dat Bevolking, wat aan die middelpunt staan van die Rykdom van Volkere indien nie van die Armoede nie, so weinig aandag in die ekonomiese literatuur van Suid-Afrika geniet. Dit is waarskynlik waarom die regering in 1997 'n NUWE bevolkingsbeleid - so gespesifiseer in die konsepwitskrif - kan voorstel wat weinig aanduiding toon van 'n waardering vir die Ekonomie van Demografiese tendense. Hierdie dissertasie is 'n poging om te demonstreer waarom die leemte gevul moet word, en om spesifieke onderwerpe, binne die breëre raamwerk, vir verdere ondersoek aan die lig te bring. Die demografiese toneel in Suid-Afrika leen homself tot 'n treffende demonstrasie van die ekonomiese gevolge van demografiese tendense by wyse van 'n kontrastering van die ondervinding van die snelgroeiende, jeugdige Swart bevolking - met 'n totale fertiliteitsyfer (TFS) van nagenoeg 3.7, nadat dit gedurende die vyftigerjare 6,75 was - en dié van die demografies-ouer nie-Swart bevolking, onder wie die Blankes, met 'n TFS wat reeds ver benede verplasingskoers van 2,1 is, en Asiërs (Indiërs) en Kleurlinge wat alreeds byna daardie peil bereik het. Aangesien eersgenoemde etniese groep ook nog 'n oorheersende aandeel van meer as driekwart in die totale SA bevolkingsgrootte het, is dit onvermydelik dat die nadruk sal val op die ekonomiese gevolge van snelle bevolkingsgroei met die daarmee samehangende demografiese groothede: fertiliteit, mortaliteit, migrasie, leeftyd- en geslagsamestelling, geografiese verspreiding en ook "ekonomiese kwaliteit" soos dit in die aanbod van ondernemerskap gemanifesteer word. Die analise word in die tradisionele vraag en aanbod paradigma aangebied. Aanbod word ontleed deur demografiese faktore te koppel met die vyf produksiefaktore waarvan die samewerking vir die skepping van die nasionale produk verantwoordelik is: ondernemers, arbeid, natuurlike hulpbronne, tegnologie en kapitaal. Die bevolking moet 'n voldoende aantalondernemers verwek, en die twee menslike produksiefaktore benodig die bystand van een of meer van die niemenslike faktore, om die bevolking ekonomies te kan akkommodeer. Vermenigvuldigende mensegetalle kan vernietigend inwerk op natuurlike hulpbronne en kan in konflik verkeer met kapitaalvorming en tegnologie-akkumulasie en hul ekonomiese welsynsbevorderende werking. Die vraag-aspekte word analiseer deur aan te sluit by die vier makro vraagkomponente in die nasionale boekhoudingstelsel : huishoudelike verbruik, regeringskonsumpsie, belegging (vis-a-vis besparing) en buitlandse handel. Aangeleenthede wat onder die loep geneem word, sluit, onder andere, die volgende in: stabiliteit wat voorspruit uit 'n bevolkingselastisiteit van vraag wat nagenoeg 1 is; die vergelykende invloed van ekonomiese oorvloed teenoor die menslike getallefaktor; die rol van hoë fertiliteit in die verkryging van ekonomiese mag deur middel van die stembus en sy gevolge vir die omleiding van vraag; die kapitaal wat in "demografiese beleggings" geabsorbeer word; en die betekenis van die Suid-Afrikaanse produksiefaktorbegunstiging vir sy internasionale handel. Uit bogenoemde ontledings kan gevolgtrekkinge gemaak word ten opsigte van ekonomiese groei, armoede, werkloosheid en die ekonomiese waarde van 'n menselewe. In menslike bevolkings - minstens sover dit sub-Sahara-Afrika betref - staan kwantiteit in 'n adversatiewe houding teenoor kwaliteit.
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Piper, Steven Edward. "Mathematical demography of the Cape vulture". Doctoral thesis, University of Cape Town, 1994. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/19843.
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The Cape Vulture Gyps coprotheres is one of the world's largest avian scavengers and was once widely distributed in southern Africa, to which it is endemic. It has suffered major changes of fortune in recorded history and has, at least twice, undergone large range contractions and expansions in the Cape Province. It has variously been classified as 'rare', 'vulnerable' or 'threatened'. It is currently thought, by some, to be in decline. The central aim of these researches is to answer the 'Grand Question': What is the probability that the Cape Vulture will survive well into the twenty-first century as a free-flying bird? This is followed by a secondary question: What is the stability of the population in space, time and age-structure?
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McGowan, Conor P. "Incidental take and endangered species demography". Diss., Columbia, Mo. : University of Missouri-Columbia, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10355/5595.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 2008.The entire dissertation/thesis text is included in the research.pdf file; the official abstract appears in the short.pdf file (which also appears in the research.pdf); a non-technical general description, or public abstract, appears in the public.pdf file. Title from title screen of research.pdf file (viewed on June 9, 2009) Vita. Includes bibliographical references.
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Hill, Gemma Modell. "The demography of early childhood caries". Thesis, Boston University, 2013. https://hdl.handle.net/2144/21174.
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Thesis (M.A.) PLEASE NOTE: Boston University Libraries did not receive an Authorization To Manage form for this thesis or dissertation. It is therefore not openly accessible, though it may be available by request. If you are the author or principal advisor of this work and would like to request open access for it, please contact us at open-help@bu.edu. Thank you.Early childhood caries (ECC) is a rampant, infectious dental disease that affects children up to age six, with effects lasting well into their adulthood. ECC predicts high rates of morbidity in adulthood, is one of the most frequently found childhood illnesses, and is theoretically preventable. Lesion formation follows a particular pattern based in part on the pattern of primary tooth eruption, and is similar to caries formation at any age, with the balance of demineralization and remineralization. Commonly observed effects of ECC include failure to thrive due to pain and discomfort with eating, decreased attentiveness and socialization, and increased number of missed school days. The lesions associated with ECC are often very painful and frequently remain untreated in high-risk populations. Unfortunately, children’s oral health needs are often overlooked in research and public health practices, leaving many untreated and suffering. Risk indicators for ECC include socioeconomic status and race or ethnicity. One of the most critical risk factors for the disease is dietary quality, which has been studied to some extent in attempts to discern the epidemiology of ECC, and which has been shown to have causative effects on the disease process. What has not been studied, however, is how these risk indicators and risk factors interrelate to contribute to the high prevalence of ECC in the United States. Without studying the effect that an overlap in associated risks for these problems has, it is not possible to create a truly comprehensive public health prevention program that will efficaciously decrease the incidence of early childhood caries. Multiple studies have shown the effects of poor diet quality on the development of ECC. When studying nutritional intake alone, ECC is far more common in groups consuming a less healthful diet. Not only does dietary intake affect the formation of caries, caries experience also affects the ability to consume a nutritious diet. Socioeconomic status has also been cited as a crucial determinant of risk for developing ECC. Those children living at or below the Federal Poverty Line are at high risk for disease, regardless of their race or ethnicity. This is hypothesized to relate to nutrition, as healthier diets are frequently found to be more costly than cariogenic diets, which rely heavily on refined and processed grain products. Nutrition is the single risk factor that bridges the risk indicators of socioeconomic status and race or ethnicity. For this reason, improving dietary quality and nutritional status may prove to be the most effective method of decreasing the prevalence of ECC in the United States. Future studies should focus on effective methods to educate the population to alter the quality of the American diet as a whole. By doing so, the prevalence of this disease can be reduced, and more children can have successful, happier, and healthier childhood years. Creating better oral health in children will decrease morbidity for both oral and systemic disease in adulthood, ultimately improving the overall health of the population of the United States.
2031-01-01
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Eickmeyer, Kasey J. "The "Common Pot": Income Pooling in American Couples and Families". Bowling Green State University / OhioLINK, 2019. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=bgsu1563551133786962.
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Nyathi, Mothabisi Nare. "Estimation of Zimbabwean migration for the period 1992-2012". Master's thesis, Faculty of Commerce, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/33944.
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International migration is the movement of people across national boundaries, and it is an important mechanism for globalisation and economic development. However, in third world countries, it means a large proportion of the population leaving. It is hard to come by statistics on emigration due to the unavailability of sound administrative data systems that record the number of departures from the country. This research seeks to estimate the net number of Zimbabwean migrants for the period 1992 to 2012, by using census data from Zimbabwe and census data from the major receiving countries of Zimbabwean migrants (South Africa and the UK) and data from the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (United Nations 2017e) for other receiving countries. The research also explores alternative estimates of the net number of Zimbabwean migrants implied by other data sources and how they compare to the estimates derived by this research. This research found that the number of Zimbabweans that left the country during the period 1992 to 2012, is between 761,682 and 1,462,620. Furthermore, the results of this research suggest that Zimbabwe is a net emigration country and the net number of Zimbabwean decreased in the second intercensal period compared to the first intercensal period. In addition, the estimates derived in this research show that migration is concentrated in the economically active age groups. Also, a notable increase in the number of female migrants is observed. A comparison of estimates derived in this study to estimates by other data sources indicated that our estimates for the net number of Zimbabwean migrants for the two intercensal periods are plausible.
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Dzumbunu, Silinganisiwe. "Trends and derteminants of adelescent fertility in Zimbabwe". Master's thesis, Faculty of Commerce, 2019. https://hdl.handle.net/11427/31761.
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This study examines the trends and socio-demographic determinants of adolescent fertility in Zimbabwe. The study uses all six ZDHS surveys that have been conducted for Zimbabwe between 1988 and 2015. Adolescent fertility trends were examined using age-period and cohort-period fertility estimates. The Poisson regression model and the tfr2 module developed by Schoumaker (2013) are used to calculate age-period fertility estimates (ASFRS). Cohort- period fertility rates (CPFRs) were calculated using a method developed by Moultrie, Dorrington, Hill et al. (2013b). ASFRs and CPFRs trends were constructed for the 15 year prior to each ZDHS survey. The trends in both the ASFRS and CPFRs showed that total fertility and 5-year fertility levels above the age of 20 years has significantly declined from the late 1980’s to the mid to around 2010 and since 2010 the fertility levels in these age groups have remained almost constant. However, fertility levels in the 15-19 years age group have been fluctuating around 110 births per 1000 women with no sign of a declining trend since around 1985. The second part of the analysis investigated the socio-demographic factors that have been influencing adolescent fertility in Zimbabwe. Two multiple logistic regression models based on the McDevitt, Adlakha, Fowler et al. (1996) model of proximate determinants of adolescence fertility were used to examine the association between eight socio-demographic factors and adolescent fertility. Results of logistic regression analysis revealed that a significant association exists between adolescent fertility and use of contraception, age at first sex, age of the respondent, marital status, highest level of education attended and employment status at the time of the survey. The odds of giving birth prior to each survey were higher among adolescents who had ever used contraception, initiated sexual activities at a very young age, older adolescents, were married, with low level of education ever attended and those who were unemployed at the time of the survey. This study concluded that adolescent (15-19 years) fertility rates have remained high despite a decrease in all the other age specific and total fertility rates. There is need to introduce and evaluate existing policies and programs that focus on improving socio-economic conditions of adolescents women in Zimbabwe.
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Tvedten, Inge. "As long as they don't bury me here : social relations of poverty in a Southern African shantytown". Doctoral thesis, University of Cape Town, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/3616.
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Includes bibliographical references (p. 196-206).Focusing on four shantytowns in the northern Namibian town of Oshakati, this study analyses the coping strategies of the poorest sections of such populations. I ask what it is that enables some people living in oppressed and poor urban shantytowns to strive to go on with their lives or improve their situation, while others living in the same context and under the same conditions seem trapped in chronic poverty and apparently give up making much of their lives? The study is based on fieldwork conducted intermittently from 1991 to 2001, using qualitative anthropological methods supplemented by quantitative measures of material poverty. It combines theories of political, economic and cultural structuration, and of the material and cultural basis for social relations of inclusion and exclusion as practise.
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Marandu, Simon Hlomayi. "Full life tables for South Africa from vital registration data, 2006-2008". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/11140.
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This research derives a set of full life tables for South Africa as a whole and by population group using vital registration data for the period 2006-2008. Given that not all deaths are registered, the research assesses the level of completeness of death registration for the national population and for all the population groups separately by using the deaths distribution methods.
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Gotora, Tendai. "Maternal mortality in high HIV prevalence countries: a critical analysis of the MMEIG methodology for estimating maternal mortality". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/12068.
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Includes abstract.Includes bibliographical references.
The main objective of this research is to analyse critically the methodology used by the Maternal Mortality Estimation Inter-Agency Group (MMEIG) to estimate maternal mortality in countries with high HIV/AIDS prevalence. This study interrogates each of the assumptions (implicit and explicit) in the MMEIG method by reviewing literature/studies that investigated each assumption.
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Hlabano, Mbongeni Charles. "An assessment of the feasibility of using administrative data in producing mid-year population estimates for South Africa". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/16610.
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Includes bibliographical referencesThe production of mid-year population estimates is an important undertaking which informs various stakeholders in policy formation and decision making. For instance, national governments use mid-year estimates to allocate seats in parliament to various constituents and public health sectors use them to monitor and improve service delivery. Mid-year population estimates undoubtedly serve very important purposes that affect lives of many people. As such, national statistical offices in various countries are given the mandate to produce annual mid-year population estimates. Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) assumes the function of producing and publishing official mid-year estimates of the population in South Africa. Stats SA produces its mid-year estimates using DemProj, population projection software which is part of the SPECTRUM suite of policy models developed by the Futures Institute. However, Stats SA does not publish full details of its adaptation of DemProj when producing its mid-year estimates as it regards this as proprietary. Concerns have been raised about the accuracy of the official mid-year estimates in terms of age distribution, particularly for ages below 40 last birthday in 2011 (e.g. Dorrington 2013). As such, this research critically analyses the method used by Stats SA to produce mid-year estimates and assesses the feasibility of using administrative data to produce mid-year estimates for South Africa. The base population is adapted from the 2001 census population. Birth and death registration data are used in a cohort component approach to produce alternative mid-year estimates for South Africa for the years 2002-2011. Prior to using these data, they are adjusted for incompleteness of registration. Levels of completeness of birth and death registration are estimated by extrapolating earlier estimates of completeness from various researchers. The mid-year estimates obtained are compared with those published by Stats SA in order to assess the relative quality of the two series of mid-year estimates. The mid-year estimates for 2011 are also compared with the mid-year population estimated from the 2011 census. These comparisons help identify the mismatches to the census and their possible causes and as such, these may lead to improved population estimates in the future, and a viable alternative method to that currently being used by Stats SA.
34
Mutakwa, Darlington. "Analysis of the projected parity progression ratio method using two successive censuses". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/5892.
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Includes abstract.Includes bibliographical references.
The objective of this study is to assess how well the projected parity progression ratio method works when applied to two successive censuses or Demographic Health Surveys. Four countries, namely Malawi, Zimbabwe, Cambodia and Panama, each with two recent censuses which are ten years apart, are used. Each of the census and survey used is taken through a data quality assessment process to check for inconsistencies. Using age-order specific fertility rates derived from births in the past year, parity progression ratios are projected to the next census.
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Van, Gijsen Rienier. "Defining a sub-Saharan fertility pattern and a standard for use with the relational Gompertz model". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/5887.
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Includes abstract.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 122-124).
The relational Gompertz model is often used to obtain fertility estimates for sub-Saharan Africa populations. This indirect estimation technique is dependent on a fertility standard - the Booth standard. This standard was developed in 1979 using a selection of 33 Coale-Trussell schedules congruent with high fertility patterns. However, evidence from 61 Demographic and Health Surveys of sub-Saharan countries shows that fertility has decreased to levels that were considered medium fertility at the time the standard was developed. This raises concerns about the continued relevance of the (high fertility) Booth standard. In particular, the standard would appear to consistently underestimate fertility among African women aged 45-49.
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Lemani, Clara. "Modelling covariates of infant and child mortality in Malawi". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/5895.
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Includes abstract.Includes bibliographical references.
Mortality of children under the age of five has been the main target of public health policies (Gakusi and Garenne 2006). There has been a significant decline in under-five mortality in the twentieth century in almost all countries regardless of initial levels and socio-economic factors, although the rate of decline has been different in different regions (UNIGME 2012). Malawi, a country in the sub-Saharan region, is characterised by high infant and child mortality. Using data from 2010 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey, infant mortality in Malawi was estimated at 66 deaths per 1000 births while child mortality was at 50 deaths per 1000 births (NSO and ORC Macro 2011). Studies have been conducted to identify covariates of infant and child mortality in Malawi but none of these used recent data and none has included HIV/AIDS as a risk factor (Baker 1999; Bolstad and Manda 2001; Kalipeni 1992; Manda 1999). This study aims at examining bio-demographic, socio-economic and environmental factors associated with infant and child mortality in Malawi. Malawi Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data for 2004 and 2010 are used.
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Chemhaka, Garikayi Bernard. "Socio- Economic differentials in fertility in Zimbabwe from 1980 to 2005". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/5898.
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The study utilises four Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSS) conducted in 1988, 1994, 1999, and 2005 in Zimbabwe to examine the socioeconomic differentials in fertility over time. The period fertility (age-specific and total fertility) rates, cohort-period fertility rates (CPFRs), projected parity progression ratios (projected PPRs), and logistic regression methods are used in the analysis, overall, to assess the nature of fertility transition. All the measures of fertility indicate an ongoing fertility decline in Zimbabwe among all parities and age groups mainly as a result of an increase in modern contraceptive uptake. Overall, fertility decline has been much more rapidly in the in the 1980 decade and slowed since 1990. The analysis shows an inverse association between urban residence, education and economic status, measured by ownership of household assets, and fertility based on the total fertility (TFR), CPFRs and projected PPRs estimates. Further analysis of the net effects of economic status and education using multivariate logistic regressions suggests the odds of having a child (not having a child) decreases (increases) with economic status and education. Overall, even after controlling for various socioeconomic variables fertility decreases with a rising level in education and/or economic status.
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Pashapa, Tapfuma. "Interrogation of the fertility differentials between the Malawi DHS and the Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project survey data". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/11511.
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Includes abstract.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 63-61).
Anglewicz, Adams, Obare et al (2009) show that the mean parities for the women who were interviewed in the Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project (MDICP) surveys of 1998 and 2004 are generally higher than the mean parities for the women who were interviewed in the Malawi Demographic and Health Surveys (MDHSs) of 2000 and 2004 respectively.
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Msemburi, Willliam. "Simulation and sensitivity analysis of the choice of open interval, the methods of open interval, the methods of estimating life expectancy, completeness and 6 in the SEG method of estimating mortality". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/5893.
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Death distribution methods, particularly the Generalized Growth Balance (GGB) and the Synthetic Extinct Generations (SEG) methods, have been observed to lead to the most accurate estimates when estimating mortality [1]. The more general version of the SEG method corrects for differential coverage of censuses directly by adding a constant (6) to the age-specific growth rates such that the correction leads to a horizontal series of age specific estimates of completeness. This research attempts to obtain the best variation of this version of the SEG method from a range of choices for an open interval age as well as well as methods of estimating life expectancy. completeness and 6. This task is accomplished by starting with a base population with known mortality then applying random errors in completeness. age misstatement and net migration to it to generate numerous datasets consisting of simulated census counts and simulated vital registration deaths by age. Variations of the SEG method are then applied to the simulated datasets to correct for the underestimation of mortality caused by the data errors. The best variations are found by statistical analysis of the difference between the true mortality and the estimated mortality for each variation and dataset generated. Using the Coale and Demeny model life tables to estimate life expectancy. selecting the a that results in a minimum variance in the age specific estimates of completeness. estimating completeness using the median value of the age specific. estimates Of completeness for ages 15 and older and using the 85+ age group for the open interval is observed to be the variation of the SEG method that leads to the most accurate estimates of mortality.
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Zinyakatira, Nesbert. "Completeness of death registration in Cape Town and its health districts, 1996-2004". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/17272.
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It is important for health planners to have timeous and accurate data on deaths. The Department of Home Affairs is responsible for the registration of deaths and the City of Cape Town has a well-established system of collating the death statistics based on vital registration, but the completeness of the death registration has not been assessed previously. The completeness was assessed for the City of Cape Town by comparing their statistics with an estimate based on data obtained from adult deaths reported in the 2001 census. A second approach assessed the trend in completeness between 1996 and 2004 by identifying three rates of mortality considered to be stable over time (non-lung and non-oesophageal cancers, the 10-14 age group and the 60+ age group) and inspecting to observe whether there was any trend apparent over time. Since deaths in most cases are under reported, and the under reporting usually differs in completeness between children and adults, child deaths from the ASSA model projection assuming that they are more complete were compared with the child deaths from the vital registration between 1996 and 2004 to check for completeness of the child vital registration data in Cape Town and its eight health districts The results show high levels of completeness in the adult deaths for Cape Town as a whole in 2001, around 95 per cent, but varying levels in the health districts. The completeness of reporting of male deaths in Cape Town declines with age, whilst completeness for females is fairly level with respect to age, with similar trends being observed in the health districts. Completeness of child (0 -4) death registration averaged around 60 per cent, about 35 per cent lower than the completeness of adult deaths in Cape Town. Cape Town as a whole and most of its health districts revealed two levels of completeness in the registration of deaths, 1996-1999 and 2001-2004 with 2000 sometimes consistent with the first and sometimes with the second period or different from either period in some of the health districts. In conclusion, the completeness estimates obtained are more rigorous from 2001 onwards suggesting that they can be reliably used to monitor trends in the levels of mortality in the city of Cape Town.
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Sayi, Takudzwa S. "Fertility, birth intervals, and their proximate determinants in Zimbabwe". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/5888.
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Includes bibliographical references (leaves 70-72).It is found that birth intervals have increased from about 28 months in the 1960s to about 51 months by the year 2000, with the greater part of this increase occuring after 1985. Fertility fell from birth intervals are congruent with each other, in terms of timing and tempo. Of the two main proximate determinants identified; marital status and contraceptive use, the latter is founf to be the more dominant force behind changes in birth spacing. Differentials by marital status are not significant. The research adds to a growing body of studies on the nature of fertility tansitions in sub-Sahara Africa, and would particularly be useful in explaining observed differences in fertility transitions between countries in the region.
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Kamangira, Boboh. "Infant and under-five mortality in South Africa : perspectives from the 2011 census and the 2012 HSRC Survey". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/13143.
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Includes bibliographical references.This research focuses on estimating infant and under-five mortality in South Africa for the period 1998-2012, both to update previous estimates taking into account new data and to assess the reasonableness of all estimates. Data from the 2011 Census and the 2012 HSRC survey were used for this purpose. The 2011 Census provided data from deaths reported by households as well as the survival of the most recent births. The 2012 HSRC provided full birth history data for women aged 15-49 which were used for direct estimation of childhood mortality. Deaths reported by households together with census estimates of the number of children under the age of five are used to produce estimates of infant and under-five mortality using the synthetic cohort life table approach.
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Fushayi, Nelly. "The determinants of contraceptive use in Zambia". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/10495.
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Includes bibliographical references (leaves 62-64).The contraceptive prevalence rate in Zambia is high, while fertility decline is very slow. From 1992 to 2007, the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) increased from 8.9 per cent in 1992 to 32.7 per cent in 2007; while total fertility rate (TFR) fluctuated between 6.5 and 6.2. The study uses three Zambian Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data sets for 1996, 2001-2 and 2007 and applies multivariate logistic regression techniques to identify factors affecting the use and choice of modern contraceptives by Zambian women. The study seeks to identify how contraceptive use in Zambia influences fertility and why both contraceptive use and fertility are high. In our results, place of residence (urban/rural), age, education, number of living children and formal employment were identified as factors that are significantly related to use of modern contraceptives.
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Nduru, Polite Munyaradzi. "Investigating biases in census questions on mortality using Agincourt heath and demographic surveillance system data". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/5891.
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Includes abstract.Includes bibliographical references.
An understanding of the errors found in census questions is important in order to assess the level of confidence in the census data and to get an appreciation of the impact of using these data in estimating mortality derived from census data. While demographic methods are often used to determine the direction of bias in the data, direct evaluation studies are required to determine the nature and extent of biases with more accuracy. Equally important is an understanding of the characteristics of the respondents who produce better responses in censuses. This can be used to inform selection of better respondents in order to improve the quality of the collected data. This research uses census data from a survey, which is matched to the longitudinal Health Demographic Surveillance System site (HDSS) data from Agincourt, Limpopo Province, South Africa, in order to assess the biases found in data used in child and adult mortality estimation that uses indirect techniques.
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Zewdie, Samuel Abera. "Spatial analysis of child mortality in South Africa in relation to poverty and inequality : evidences from the 2011 census". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/13078.
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Includes bibliographical references.Subnational estimates of child mortality are difficult to produce and are rare in Sub- Saharan Africa. It is the overall aim of this research to derive estimates of child mortality rates for the municipalities and provinces of South Africa using the 2011 census data, and to assess the results in relation to the level of poverty and inequality. The estimation of child mortality rates is achieved through the use of direct synthetic cohort methods with Bayesian spatial smoothing. The Bayesian spatial smoothing process is used to generate municipal level estimates of child mortality rates. The model utilises information from neighbouring municipalities by controlling the effects of women’s education and HIV/AIDS.
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Munjoma, Malvern. "Assessment of the robustness of recent births in estimating infant mortality using multi-country Demographic Health Survey data". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/13169.
Texto completoResumen
Includes bibliographical references.This dissertation investigates the robustness of recent births in estimating infant mortality rates from the proportion of deaths observed among births reported in a 24month period. The Blacker Brass technique is applied to all births reported in the 24month period and to most recent births in the 24 month period. The study uses birth history data from 76 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 16 countries across the developing world between 1986 and 2011. All births (and the deaths of those births) occurring in five 2-year periods before each survey were extracted to obtain five estimates of infant mortality using the Blacker-Brass and direct estimation methods from each dataset. This allows trends in infant mortality for the 10-year period before the survey to be compared and relative errors to be calculated. The results showed a decline in infant mortality in most datasets and are consistent with the United Nations and the World Health Organisation 2013 estimates. The relative errors did not indicate any systematic bias of the Blacker-Brass method applied to all births; however, further investigations showed that the method underestimated infant mortality in the period closest to the survey date in most datasets. Furthermore, the relative errors were positively correlated with the directly estimated level of infant mortality. There were, however, no significant differences in the relative errors across countries.
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Nyirenda, Makandwe. "Small area projections : modelling the demographic and epidemiological dynamics of a rural area in South Africa". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/5890.
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Machemedze, Takwanisa. "Old age mortality in South Africa". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/8980.
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Includes bibliographical references (leaves 71-74).This study estimates the mortality of the South African oldest old age population (in five year age groups from age 75 up to the open age interval 100 and above) and in the process re-estimates the numbers of people in the population at these ages at the time of the 1996 and 2001 censuses, and the 2007 Community Survey. In countries where the data on the old age population have been verified, it has been observed that the data are marred by errors in the form of age exaggeration, age digit preference, relative under/over count of the population and under-registration of deaths. These errors have been observed to have the net effect of underestimating mortality of the oldest old age groups. The current research applies the method of extinct generations to estimate indirectly the population numbers at the oldest old age groups (75 up to 100 and above) using data on reported deaths alone. Age heaping and year of birth preference in the reported deaths are assessed using ratios of the probability of death estimated from the data. Age exaggeration in the data on reported deaths is assessed using ratios of deaths compared with same ratios from a standard population. Age heaping and year of birth preference in the census/survey population is assessed using the modified Whipple's Index of age accuracy. The Generalized Growth Balance (GGB) and Synthetic Extinct Generations (SEG+delta) methods are applied to adjust for under reporting of deaths and to assess patterns of age exaggeration in the census/survey population. The difference between the estimates of the completeness of reporting of deaths from the two methods is small (less than 1 per cent) and has been observed to have little impact on the mortality estimates. Final estimates of the completeness of reporting of deaths used are those derived using the SEG+delta method. After re-estimating the population numbers and adjusting for completeness of reporting of deaths, mortality rates were then estimated. Results obtained from the method of extinct generations suggest that there is no systematic difference between the census/ survey population and the population numbers estimated from deaths except at ages 95 and above. Measures of age accuracy show that there are patterns of preferring 1910, 1914, 1918, 1920 and 1930 as the years of birth in the census/survey population and these patterns are also found in the registered deaths. The impact of these errors was investigated and the results show that preference of certain years of birth cause fluctuations in the mortality rates. Patterns observed after applying the SEG+delta method suggest that the completeness of reporting of deaths falls with age at the advanced ages (from age 90 and above) and as a result, the estimated mortality rates above this age are lower than those estimated from the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) and US Census Bureau (USCB) population projections, and Dorrington, Moultrie and Timaeus (2004). Conclusions reached are that the mortality rates for the age groups 75 to 89 derived after re-estimating the population numbers and after allowing for the fall in the completeness of reporting of deaths are lower but not significantly different from those inferred from the UNPD and USCB population projections, and estimates derived by Dorrington, Moultrie and Timaeus (2004). The research recommends mortality estimates from the UNPD since they are the closest to the estimates derived using the published census population numbers for the whole period between the nights of 9-10 October 1996 and 9-10 October 2001. However, the research produced better estimates of the oldest old age population numbers relative to the census/survey numbers.
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Engdaw, Alehegn Worku. "Environmental health hazards on under-five mortality in sub-Saharan Africa : analysis using multilevel discrete-time hazard model". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/13144.
Texto completoResumen
Includes bibliographical references.Environmental health hazards are pathogens and chemicals in the environment, which can cause health problems. The importance of such environmental factors in child health and survival are acknowledged in the literature. However, empirical researches on the effect of environmental health hazards on child health and survival are rare in sub- Saharan Africa. This study assesses the effect of household environmental health hazards on under-five mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. The study has used DHS data sets of the following 12 countries in the region: Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Gabon, Guinea, Malawi, Niger, Rwanda, Senegal and Zimbabwe. These countries constitute roughly 26 per cent of the region’s population. The study has employed principal component method to construct an index of the level of household environmental health hazards using the following indicators: water source, type of toilet facility, flooring material, type of wall, type of roof, type of cooking fuel and location of water source. I have used a multilevel discrete-time hazard model to assess the relationship between the environmental index and under-five mortality after controlling for the effects of a number of socioeconomic, biodemographic and community-level characteristics.
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Dobbie, Mark-Ross B. "The estimation and interpretation of adult mortality rates of African South Africans using Census 2001 data". Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/11920.
Texto completoResumen
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 74-79).This research develops estimates of mortality rates for adult Africans in South Africa for the twelve months preceding the census night, 9/10 October 2Q(B, using Census 2001 10% sample data. The approach used to estimate these rates follow the work done by Dorrington, Moultrie and Timaeus (2004) working with the full dataset, which is not publicly anilable, and demonstrate that the 10% sample can be used to produce similar results to the full database. The approach makes use of indirect estimation techniques for estimating the completeness of reporting of deaths in the vital registration system at a national level, namely the combination of Generalized Growth Balance method (GGB) and the Synthetic Extinct Generations (SEG) method adapted to allow for net immigration over the inter-censal period.