Literatura académica sobre el tema "Catastrophes naturelles – Prévision"
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Artículos de revistas sobre el tema "Catastrophes naturelles – Prévision":
Kettab, Ahmed, Ratiba Mitiche y Naoual Bennaçar. "De l’eau pour un développement durable : enjeux et stratégies". Revue des sciences de l'eau 21, n.º 2 (22 de julio de 2008): 247–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.7202/018469ar.
Yésou, Hervé, Aurélie Escudier, Stéphanie Battiston, Jean-Yves Dardillac, Stephen Clandillon, Carlos Uribe, Mathilde Caspard et al. "Exploitation de l'imagerie Pléiades-THR en cartographie réactive suite à des catastrophes naturelles ayant affecté le territoire français en 2013". Revue Française de Photogrammétrie et de Télédétection, n.º 209 (29 de enero de 2015): 39–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.52638/rfpt.2015.210.
Gagné, Karine. "Climat". Anthropen, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.17184/eac.anthropen.110.
Tesis sobre el tema "Catastrophes naturelles – Prévision":
Gazzeh, Karim. "Aménagement et risques majeurs, le cas des inondations de novembre 1999 en Languedoc-Roussillon". Toulouse 2, 2004. http://www.theses.fr/2004TOU20019.
The assessments of natural disasters shows that the floods are the most frequent and the most devastating. This phenomenon constitutes one of the principal factors of economic and social impact. By privileging work on the vulnerability, the goal is to identify and analyze its natural and anthropic determining factors. Structured in three parts, this research analyzes the human activity within the framework of the interaction between the economic factor, the social attitudes and the prevention policy. After having treated these phenomena with a global scale (In the world and in France), the results show that the Languedoc-Roussillon area illustrates perfectly the overlap of the geographical, demographic, socio-economic, institutional and politico-administrative factors of vulnerability
Ercole, Robert d'. "Vulnérabilité des populations face au risque volcanique : le cas de la région du volcan Cotopaxi (Equateur)". Université Joseph Fourier (Grenoble), 1991. http://www.theses.fr/1991GRE19018.
We are proposing a study on the vulnerability of populations in the face of volcanic hazards primely based on the ecuadorian area case, mainly chosen because of its relation to the colombian catastrophe of nov. 13th 85 (e ruption of nevado del ruiz volcano). We aimed to a global approach of this vulnerability. The physical component of the risk doesn't make up an end in itself , but the first element of a research based on an investigation campain regarding mainly the human component, this latte r beeing generally put in low priority in preventive planification studies. The vulnerability factor weight varies upon the location, or the social group considered. However if the cognitive facto r (hazard perception and assessment of protection means) is far from beeing negligeable, it's mainly the economic, socia l, cultural and logistic factors that seem to influence the human behaviour in the event of an emergency situation. In spite of these constraints, research study tends to show that the so called "natural" risk is not a fatality, even in third world countries as long as there is a true political concern for it, backed up with the proper means of decision. In that view, particular effort has been put on the methodological aspects, and specially on a cartography that put int o light various types and levels of vulnerability of population exposed to the risk of cotopaxi volcano, elements that seems indispensable to be known before starting to get involved with preventive local actions
Lacambre, Anne. "Aléas et risques naturels en montagne : apports et limites d'un Système d'Information Géographique (SIG) : application au haut bassin versant du Drac (Hautes-Alpes, France)". Paris 4, 2001. http://www.theses.fr/2001PA040068.
Erosional forms and processes are studied in the two alpine valleys which constitue the Drac springs (Orcières and Champoléon communes, Hautes-Alpes, France). In addition to the inventory of the areas concerned by the numerous hazards and risks (avalanches, floods, debris flows, landslides), the population perception of these risks is analysed. But, to understand the functionning of the erosional processes, and especially their setting off causes, a Geographical Information System (GIS) is created. The greatest number of the natural environment parameters are to be considered, thanks to thematic maps (topographic, climatic, lithologic, biogeographic data). The intersection of all these data is done to create hazards and risks maps. Finally remarks are carried out on the developped methodology. Although the GIS contains a few weak points, this method remains an essential tool to deal with development questions and particularly natural hazards and risks in mountainous valleys where man is confronted with numerous erosional processes
Ecoto, Dicka Geoffrey. "Modélisation et apprentissage machine learning appliqués à l'estimation des dommages consécutifs à la survenance d'un événement de sécheresse par retrait-gonflement des argiles dans le cadre du régime d'indemnisation des catastrophes naturelles français". Electronic Thesis or Diss., Université Paris Cité, 2023. http://www.theses.fr/2023UNIP7182.
This Ph.D. thesis is dedicated to forecasting the financial impact on insured properties in the event of drought, utilizing methods that merge statistics and machine learning. In this context, "drought" refers to the phenomenon of clay shrinkage and swelling that leads to damage to buildings. The task can be broken down into two sub-problems that we address separately. The first sub-problem focuses on predicting which municipalities will submit a request for the government declaration of natural disaster for a drought event. The second is dedicated to predicting the financial impact of drought events on insured properties located in municipalities that obtained the government declaration of natural disaster for a drought event. For the first sub-problem, we develop, study, and apply an original algorithm to predict requests for the government declaration of natural disaster. The algorithm benefits from two complementary formalizations of the task at hand, approached as both supervised classification and an optimal transport problem. The final predictions are obtained as a geometric mean of these two prediction types. Theoretically, the optimal transport plan can be obtained by applying the iPiano algorithm [Ochs et al., 2015], and we demonstrate that the assumptions underlying its analysis are met. The analysis of the predictions obtained confirms the algorithm's relevance. Regarding the second sub-problem, we develop, investigate, and apply an original aggregation algorithm, inspired by the Super Learner [van der Laan, 2007]. Two challenges must be considered. First, since drought events have only been covered by the French natural disaster compensation scheme since 1989, the number of drought events available for training our algorithm is limited, with each drought event associated with a large dataset. Second, temporal dependence is compounded by spatial dependence, primarily due to geographic and administrative proximity between French municipalities. Based on a dependency modeling using a dependency graph, the theoretical analysis reveals that the brevity of the time series can be compensated if spatial dependence is weak. Once again, the analysis of the predictions obtained underscores the relevance of our algorithm
Boudou, Martin. "Approche multidisciplinaire pour la caractérisation d’inondations remarquables : enseignements tirés de neuf évènements en France (1910-2010)". Thesis, Montpellier 3, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015MON30057/document.
The occurrence of a 100 year flood in the Paris area like the January 1910 flood event is a major issue of concern as its potential economic impacts are today estimated around 30 billion euros. This shows the interest of studying exceptional past flood events for flood risk management. It has recently been confirmed by the European Flood Directive 2007/60/CE, in which article 4 recommends describing the floods that had “significant adverse impacts”. This aspect raises some questions. What does significant adverse impact mean? What is the interest to describe those events? This PhD thesis is focussing on a multidisciplinary approach for characterizing remarkable flood events, term used to qualify the 176 flood events selected during the Preliminary Risk Assessment of 2011 into the French National Historical Flood database (BDHI).An evaluation grid, based on the hydrometeorological aspects of the flood hazard as well as the socio-economic and politic consequences of the flood event, was applied to the set of 176 floods. The results conducted to select 9 remarkable flood events from 1910 to 2010. Monograph studies are presented on each of these case studies and are used to deal with three questions on the interest of studying past flood events: 1/ what are the factors involved in the hazard process leading to a remarkable flood event? ; 2/ does a retrospective analysis helps to understand the main explicative factors of flood mortality? ; 3/ how does the society manage a remarkable flood event?The analysis is especially supplied by the use of mapping which offers some issues to better understanding the different spatio-temporal dynamics and the main factors involved in a remarkable flood event
Alaeddine, Houssein. "Un modèle d'optimisation spatio-temporel pour l'évacuation de la population exposée aux catastrophes naturelles : projet ACCELL : évaluation spatio-temporelle de l'ACCessibilité d'Enjeux localisés en situation d'inondation sur le bassin de la Loire". Thesis, Tours, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014TOUR1802/document.
The importance of managing an urban site threatened or affected by flooding requires the development of effective evacuation systems. An effective evacuation system has to take into account some constraints such as the transportation traffic which plays an important role as well as others such as the accessibility, necessary human resources and material equipment (vehicles, assembly points, etc...). The main objective of this work is to bring assistance to the technical services and brigade forces in terms of accessibility by providing itineraries with respect to rescue operations and the evacuation of people and goods.We consider the evacuation of a middle size area, exposed to a risk, and more precisely to a risk of flooding. In case of flooding event, the most of inhabitants will be evacuated by themselves, ie., using their personal vehicles. Considered case here, the flooding can be forecast in advance, and then the population has few days (2-4) to evacuate. Our aimis to build an evacuation plan, ie., fixing for each individual the date of departure and the path to reach the assembly point (also called shelter) associated. Evacuation plan must avoid congestion on the roads of evacuation network.Here, we present a spatio-temporal optimization model for the evacuation of the population exposed to natural disasters, and more particularly to a flood risk
Ulusoy, Inan. "Etude volcano-structurale du volcan Nemrut (Anatolie de l'Est, Turquie) et risques naturels associés". Phd thesis, Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand II, 2008. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00730602.
Affeltranger, Bastien. "Le contrôle de la vérité : (Géo)Politique de l'information hydrologique. Le cas du bassin du Mékong, Asie du Sud-Est". Thesis, Université Laval, 2008. http://www.theses.ulaval.ca/2008/25226/25226.pdf.
Lavigne, Franck. "Les lahars du volcan Merapi, Java central, Indonésie". Clermont-Ferrand 2, 1998. http://www.theses.fr/1998CLF20003.
The present work is a study of geomorphology and risks associated with lahars (volcanic debris flows or mudflows) at the merapi volcano area, central java (indonesia). The aims of the study are twofold: 1) to understand the triggering and flow processes; 2) to improve the surveillance and warning systems in lahar-prone areas. The first part of this dissertation describes the study area (the highly populated island of java and the merapi volcano) and presents the research topic (lahar, which is an intricate object of investigation) and methods, based on instrument sourced data and field data. The second part of the dissertation is a thematic presentation of the research results at mt merapi. Lahar triggering is complex. Triggering rainfall thresholds vary widely over space and time, and is mainly influenced by the synoptic origin of rainfall. This part also deals with the sedimentary budget and geomorphological changes within the boyong channel. The denudation rate at merapi is one of the highest in the world, due to the high frequency of lahars. Only 10% of the erosion takes place at less than 1000m in elevation, which indicates that the bulking factor of lahar is poor, due to a rapid reduction of sediment and great variations of sediment concentration during the flow. The main differentiating feature comes from the presence of transient and unsteady phases within the lahar, which often alternates with normal streamflow. The third part of this dissertation is dedicated to lahar hazard and risk zonation. Two methods are proposed: the first one is micro-zonation. The results are six detailed hazard-zone maps for flooding and lahar at the 1/10,000 scale in rural areas and 1/2,000 scale within yogyakarta city. The second method is based on a gis, which includes hazards, vulnerability assessment of property and qualitative appraisal of factors relating to peoples vulnerability
Cetin, Esra. "Analysis and modeling of crustal deformation using InSAR time series along selected active faults within the Africa-Eurasia convergence zone". Thesis, Strasbourg, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015STRAH010/document.
This Ph.D. thesis is conducted in the frame of the -co-tutellell scholarship (EOST-ITU) provided by French Embassy in Ankara. ln addition, a 10-month scholarship « Bourse excellence Eiffel » ,and 8-month scholarship « TUBITAK 22148 - joint Ph.D. » were other sources of support for the preparation of this thesis.The convergence between African and Eurasian plates is at the origin of active tectonic structures that generate large and destructive earthquakes. This thesis aims to improve our understanding of fault behavior and the earthquake cycle by analyzing surface deformation along selected active faults during the periods of co-, post-and inter-seismic deformation within the Africa-Eurasia convergence zone. ln this context, slow deformation observed at the surface and associated with the earthquake cycle is analyzed using Synthetic Aperture Radar lnterferometry (lnSAR) time series technique, and modeled with elastic dislocation methods
Libros sobre el tema "Catastrophes naturelles – Prévision":
Sari, Driss Ben. Prévision et prévention des catastrophes naturelles et environnementales: Le cas du Maroc. Paris: Editions Unesco, 2004.
Kimoto, Sayuri. Predication and Simulation Methods for Geohazard Mitigation: Including CD-ROM. Abingdon: CRC Press [Imprint], 2009.
Mason, Colin. The 2030 spike: Countdown to global catastrophe. Sterling, VA: Earthscan Publications, 2003.
Kerrigan, Philip. Weatherspy. Grafton, 1990.
McLeod, Liz. Savage Planet: Real-Life Stories of Tragedy and Survival. Andre Deutsch, 2000.