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Treiner, Jacques. "Jouer avec les chiffres du climat : une approche par budget carbone". Reflets de la physique, n.º 43 (marzo de 2015): 46–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/refdp/201543046.
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Oghazi, N. Rezaei, T. Jusselme y M. Andersen. "Carbon budgets at the component scale and their impacts on design choices: the façade as a case study". Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2600, n.º 15 (1 de noviembre de 2023): 152016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/2600/15/152016.
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Abstract In accordance with the Paris agreement, the Swiss Climate Strategy (SCS) defines the net-zero target to be reached before 2050, which demands for a thoughtful carbon budget allocation between the different contributors. Ongoing normalization tasks are currently defining life cycle carbon budgets at the building scale aligned with the SCS. While recent research has provided promising methodologies to break down a whole building’s carbon budget, SCS-aligned budgets cannot be calculated at the component scale yet. Having the ability to define carbon budgets at the components’ level could support a carbon-responsible design process by reducing the scope of the design problem: the idea is to ensure that the cumulative impact of all the building components (calculated per building energy reference area) remains below the allowed building carbon budget based on SCS targets. This would provide a straightforward link between SCS and carbon budgets at the component scale, a scale at which many decisions need to be taken during the design process. Moreover, based on the set SCS net-zero objectives to be reached by 2050, the carbon budget, whether for buildings or for their components, will have to decrease annually, thereby affecting design flexibility, i.e. the number of design solutions that can still comply with the building’s carbon budget on any specific year. The research presented in this paper aims to provide a framework able to set carbon budgets at the components’ scale and start discussing the consequences of such carbon budgets on façade design flexibility until 2050.
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BADER, Maaike Y., Gerhard ZOTZ y Otto L. LANGE. "How to minimize the sampling effort for obtaining reliable estimates of diel and annual CO2 budgets in lichens". Lichenologist 42, n.º 1 (26 de noviembre de 2009): 97–111. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0024282909990338.
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AbstractEstimating carbon budgets for poikilohydric organisms, such as lichens and bryophytes, requires methods other than those for homoiohydric plants due to a strong dependency of carbon gain on fluctuating hydration. This paper provides guidance with respect to optimal sampling strategies for estimating annual carbon budgets of lichens and bryophytes, based on a one-year dataset of half-hourly CO2-exchange readings on the epilithic placodioid lichen Lecanora muralis (syn. Protoparmeliopsis muralis) and tests the effects of reduced sampling frequencies and different temporal sampling schemes on carbon budget estimates. Both fine-scale sampling (measurements within a day) and large-scale sampling (selection of days within a year) are addressed.Lowering the sampling frequency within a day caused large deviations for 24-h (diel) budget estimates. Averaged over a larger number of days, these errors did not necessarily cause a large deviation in the annual budget estimate. However, the occurrence of extreme deviations in diel budgets could strongly offset the annual budget estimate. To avoid this problem, frequent sampling (c. every 1·5 hours) is necessary for estimating annual budgets. For estimating diel budgets and patterns a more frequent sampling (every c. 0·5 hours, balancing data resolution and disturbance) is often needed.Sampling fewer than 365 days in a given year inevitably caused estimates to deviate from the ‘true’ carbon budget, i.e. the annual budget based on half-hourly measurements during 365 days. Accuracy increased with total sample frequency, and blocking days caused larger deviations than sampling randomly or regularly spaced single days. Restricting sampling to only one season led to strongly biased estimates. The sampling effort required for a reliable estimate of the annual carbon balance of lichens based on simple extrapolations of diel carbon budgets is impracticably large. For example, a relatively large sample of 52 random days yielded an estimate within 25% of the true annual budget with only 60% certainty. Supporting approaches are therefore suggested, in particular extrapolating diel budgets using ‘weather response types’, possibly aided by diel activity patterns from chlorophyll fluorescence, or modelling CO2 exchange as a function of climatic conditions.
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Campbell, Ian D., Celina Campbell, Zicheng Yu, Dale H. Vitt y Michael J. Apps. "Millennial-Scale Rhythms in Peatlands in the Western Interior of Canada and in the Global Carbon Cycle". Quaternary Research 54, n.º 1 (julio de 2000): 155–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/qres.2000.2134.
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A natural ∼1450-yr global Holocene climate periodicity underlies a portion of the present global warming trend. Calibrated basal radiocarbon dates from 71 paludified peatlands across the western interior of Canada demonstrate that this periodicity regulated western Canadian peatland initiation. Peatlands, the largest terrestrial carbon pool, and their carbon-budgets are sensitive to hydrological fluctuations. The global atmospheric carbon-budget experienced corresponding fluctuations, as recorded in the Holocene atmospheric CO2 record from Taylor Dome, Antarctica. While the climate changes following this ∼1450-yr periodicity were sufficient to affect the global carbon-budget, the resultant atmospheric CO2 fluctuations did not cause a runaway climate–CO2 feedback loop. This demonstrates that global carbon-budgets are sensitive to small climatic fluctuations; thus international agreements on greenhouse gasses need to take into account the natural carbon-budget imbalance of regions with large climatically sensitive carbon pools.
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De Sisto, Makcim L. y Andrew H. MacDougall. "Effect of terrestrial nutrient limitation on the estimation of the remaining carbon budget". Biogeosciences 21, n.º 21 (8 de noviembre de 2024): 4853–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-4853-2024.
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Abstract. The carbon cycle plays a foundational role in the estimation of the remaining carbon budget. It is intrinsic for the determination of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions and the zero-emissions commitment. For the terrestrial carbon cycle, nutrient limitation is a core regulation on the amount of carbon fixed by terrestrial vegetation. Hence, the addition of nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus in land model structures in Earth system models is essential for an accurate representation of the carbon cycle feedback in future climate projections. Therefore, the estimation of the remaining carbon budget is impacted by the representation of nutrient limitation in modelled terrestrial ecosystems; however, it is rarely accounted for. Here, we estimate the carbon budget and remaining carbon budget of a nutrient-limited Earth system model, using nitrogen and phosphorus cycles to limit vegetation productivity and biomass. We use eight Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (hereafter SSP) scenarios and idealized experiments with three distinct model structures: (1) carbon cycle without nutrient limitation, (2) carbon cycle with terrestrial nitrogen limitation, and (3) carbon cycle with terrestrial nitrogen and phosphorus limitation. To capture the uncertainty in the remaining carbon budget, three different climate sensitives were tuned for each model version. Our results show that, overall, nutrient limitation reduced the remaining carbon budget for all simulations in comparison with the carbon cycle without nutrient limitation. Between nitrogen and nitrogen–phosphorus limitation, the latter had the lowest remaining carbon budget. The mean remaining carbon budgets obtained from the SSP scenario simulations for the 1.5 °C target in the non-nutrient-limited, nitrogen-limited, and nitrogen–phosphorus-limited models were 228, 185, and 175 Pg C, respectively, relative to the year 2020. For the 2 °C target, the mean remaining carbon budget values were 471, 373, and 351 Pg C for the non-nutrient-limited, nitrogen-limited, and nitrogen–phosphorus-limited models, respectively, relative to the year 2020. This represents a reduction of 19 % and 24 % for the 1.5 °C target and 21 % and 26 % for the 2 °C target for the respective nitrogen- and nitrogen–phosphorus-limited simulations compared with the non-nutrient-limited model. These results show that terrestrial nutrient limitation constitutes an important factor to be considered when estimating or interpreting remaining carbon budgets and that it is an essential uncertainty in the remaining carbon budgets from Earth system model simulations.
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Alaux, N., T. Lackner, S. Nabernegg, B. Truger, M. Röck, K. W. Steininger y A. Passer. "Carbon budget for national building stock life-cycle emissions: a novel approach". Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2600, n.º 15 (1 de noviembre de 2023): 152004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/2600/15/152004.
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Abstract Following the Paris Agreement, many countries such as Switzerland or Denmark have derived carbon budgets for their national building stock to support local policies by creating benchmarks. The aim is to calculate a quota for carbon emissions that a country can spend on its building stock by 2050 to ensure that it stays within a 1.5°C trajectory. The underlying allocation principle almost exclusively follows this procedure: (i) allocating the global budget to the national level, (ii) further allocating the national budget to the sectoral level, and (iii) to the building stock level (or even further down to the district or building level). However, this procedure of budget allocation does not do justice to the cross-sectoral and international nature of the national building stock’s life-cycle emissions. We propose a new approach for consistent, building stock-specific carbon budgets and demonstrate the proposed methodology for Austria. Adopting this approach for the building stock of other countries would enable consistent carbon budgets that reflect the field of action buildings for climate change mitigation.
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Costentin, Jean. "Depuis l’Hôtel Matignon retentissent des trompettes qui tentent d’effondrer les murailles lézardées protégeant encore du cannabis". Revue française de criminologie et de droit pénal N° 13, n.º 2 (1 de octubre de 2019): 53–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.3917/rfcdp.013.0053.
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Un « conseil d’analyse économique » placé sous l’autorité du Premier Ministre, vient de prôner (d’une façon qui pourrait être hiérarchiquement incontrôlée) la légalisation du cannabis. Il justifie sa proposition à partir de considérations essentiellement économiques. L’organisation étatique de la culture et de la vente du cannabis rapporterait au budget près de 3 milliards d’euros. On sait désormais que tabac et alcool, loin d’être bénéficiaires pour le budget, l’obèrent grandement en raison de leurs coûts sanitaires et sociaux énormes. La légalisation du cannabis ferait exploser le nombre, déjà considérable, de ses consommateurs et développerait les multiples méfaits, pour le corps et pour le cerveau, provoqués par l’oxyde de carbone, les goudrons cancérigènes et le tétrahydrocannabinol (THC) ; à savoir : une toxicité cardio-vasculaire (artérites, infarctus du myocarde, accidents vasculaires cérébraux) ; une toxicité pour la sphère O.R.L. et bronchopulmonaire(parinflammationetcancers); une toxicitépourlafemmeenceinte et l’enfant qui en naîtra (prématurité, mort subite inexpliquée, hyperactivité avec déficit de l’attention, trouble du développement psychomoteur, grande appétence pour les drogues à l’adolescence). Le THC est responsable d’accidents routiers et professionnels. Ses effets désinhibiteurs rendent le consommateur dangereux pour lui-même et pour autrui. Le THC persiste pendant plusieurs semaines dans le corps et dans le cerveau. Il induit une ivresse, il diminue l’éveil, l’attention, la mémoire ; il crée une démotivation, avec de grandes perturbations cognitives. Il induit une anxiété, des troubles dépressifs avec leurs risques suicidaires ; sa responsabilité dans la survenue, la décompensation ou l’aggravation de la schizophrénie est chaque jour mieux précisée. Il incite à la consommation d’autres drogues (escalade et poly toxicomanie). Un autre argument avancé par ce rapport est celui de la création d’emploi ; il prétend que c’est dans l’agriculture, alors que ce serait plutôt dans les hôpitaux psychiatriques. Il prétend aussi que cette légalisation libérerait la police de la chasse aux dealers (ils seraient plus de 200.000) ; comme si ces derniers allaient disparaître et non pas adapter leurs offres. La gestion pitoyable du tabac (avec ses 75.000 morts annuels) et de l’alcool (avec ses 49.000 morts) joints à l’énormité des coûts qu’ils engendrent, ne manquerait pas d’être au rendez-vous de la légalisation du cannabis. Très au-dessus des fallacieux bénéfices qu’ils font miroiter, rappelons à ces apprentis sorciers « qu’il n’est de richesse que d’Hommes ».
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Zhao, Junfang, Jinlong Ai, Yujie Zhu, Ruixi Huang, Huiwen Peng y Hongfei Xie. "Carbon budget of different forests in China estimated by an individual-based model and remote sensing". PLOS ONE 18, n.º 10 (9 de octubre de 2023): e0285790. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0285790.
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Forests play a key role in the regional or global carbon cycle. Determining the forest carbon budget is of great significance for estimating regional carbon budgets and formulating forest management policies to cope with climate change. However, the carbon budget of Chinese different forests and their relative contributions are not completely clear so far. We evaluated the carbon budget of different forests from 1981 to 2020 in China through combining model with remote sensing observation. In addition, we also determined the relative contribution of carbon budget of each forest type to all forests in China. Eight forest types were studied: evergreen coniferous forest (ECF), deciduous coniferous forest (DCF), coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest (CBF), deciduous broad-leaved forest (DBF), evergreen broad-leaved forest (EBF), evergreen deciduous broad-leaved mixed forest (EDBF), seasonal rain forest (SRF), and rain forest (RF). The results indicated that the Chinese forests were mainly carbon sink from 1981 to 2020, particularly the annual average carbon budget of forest from 2011 to 2020 was 0.191 PgC·a-1. Spatially, the forests’ carbon budget demonstrated obvious regional differences, gradually decreasing from Southeast China to Northwest China. The relative contributions of carbon budget in different forests to all forests in China were different. During 2011–2020, the ECF forests contributed the most carbon budget (34.45%), followed by DBF forests (25.89%), EBF forests (24.82%), EDBF forests (13.10%), RF forests (2.23%), SRF forests (3.14%) and CBF forests (1.14%). However, the DCF forests were found mainly as carbon source. These results contribute to our understanding of regional carbon budget of forests.
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Liu, Zhouhan y Shigang Shen. "Evaluation methods, progress and prospect of carbon budget system under dual carbon background". Information 26, n.º 1 (15 de marzo de 2023): 35–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.47880/inf2601-03.
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In September 2020, China declared to it to achieve carbon peaks by 2030 and carbon neutralization by 2060. Based on the literature review, this paper analyzes the current status of the carbon revenue and expenditure system. It expouds on the methods and progress of the carbon revenue and expenditure system. On this basis, some suggestions are put forward from four aspects: primary data, accounting methods, and technical means. The current research progress and existing problems were reviewed, and suggestions for future research ideas were put forward, in order to provide a methodology reference for accurate estimation of carbon sinks in terrestrial ecosystems in China, and provide scientific support for the development of carbon neutral emission reduction policies in China.
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Oshiro, Ken, Keii Gi, Shinichiro Fujimori, Heleen L. van Soest, Christoph Bertram, Jacques Després, Toshihiko Masui, Pedro Rochedo, Mark Roelfsema y Zoi Vrontisi. "Mid-century emission pathways in Japan associated with the global 2 °C goal: national and global models’ assessments based on carbon budgets". Climatic Change 162, n.º 4 (20 de julio de 2019): 1913–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02490-x.
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Abstract This study assesses Japan’s mid-century low-emission pathways using both national and global integrated assessment models in the common mitigation scenario framework, based on the carbon budgets corresponding to the global 2 °C goal. We examine high and low budgets, equal to global cumulative 1600 and 1000 Gt-CO2 (2011–2100) for global models, and 36 and 31 Gt-CO2 (2011–2050) in Japan for national models, based on the cost-effectiveness allocation performed by the global models. The impacts of near-term policy assumption, including the implementation and enhancement of the 2030 target of the nationally determined contribution (NDC), are also considered. Our estimates show that the low budget scenarios require a 75% reduction of CO2 emissions by 2050 below the 2010 level, which is nearly the same as Japan’s governmental 2050 goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80%. With regard to near-term actions, Japan’s 2030 target included in the NDC is on track to meet the high budget scenario, whereas it is falling short for the low budget scenario, which would require emission reductions immediately after 2020. Whereas models differ in the type of energy source on which they foresee Japan basing its decarbonization process (e.g., nuclear- or variable renewable energy-dependent), the large-scale deployment of low-carbon energy (nuclear, renewable, and carbon capture and storage) is shared across most models in both the high and low budget scenarios. By 2050, low-carbon energy represents 44–54% of primary energy and 86–97% of electricity supply in the high and low budget scenarios, respectively.
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Yang, Fan, Shicheng Li, Yang Gao, Meijiao Li y Pengfei Wu. "Inconsistent Carbon Budget Estimation Using Dynamic/Static Carbon Density under Land Use and Land Cover Change: A Case Study in Henan Province, China". Land 11, n.º 12 (7 de diciembre de 2022): 2232. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/land11122232.
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The scientific estimation of carbon budgets induced by land use and land cover change (LUCC) can improve the accuracy of carbon budget estimates for terrestrial ecosystems and deepen our understanding of the future carbon sink potential of these ecosystems. Previous studies have typically selected one of many LUCC-induced carbon budget methods and overlooked the differences in the results between the different methods. Taking Henan Province, China, as a case study, we used the IPCC method, the bookkeeping model, and the inventory method to estimate LUCC-induced carbon budgets and compared the differences in these methods. The results showed that LUCC in Henan Province was categorized as a carbon sink from 1980 to 2015 based on the IPCC method and the inventory method. However, the estimates were significantly different, and the total estimates of the IPCC method were 40% less than those of the inventory method. At the regional ecogeographical scale, the two methods were not consistent in assessing the carbon source/sink of LUCC. The bookkeeping model categorized LUCC as a carbon source in Henan Province for the same period, and the carbon storage change trend opposed those of the other two methods. The failure of the IPCC method and the bookkeeping model to include the dynamic changes in carbon density caused by climate and land use management led to the great differences between the three methods. The inventory method is recommended to estimate the carbon budget caused by LUCC for regions where carbon density varies greatly over time. Both the IPCC method and the bookkeeping model may have great uncertainty in estimating changes in LUCC-induced carbon stocks and should be used with caution.
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Tsutsui, Junichi, Hiromi Yamamoto, Shogo Sakamoto y Masahiro Sugiyama. "The role of advanced end-use technologies in long-term climate change mitigation: the interlinkage between primary bioenergy and energy end-use". Climatic Change 163, n.º 3 (27 de agosto de 2020): 1659–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02839-7.
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AbstractThe role of advanced end-use technologies has been investigated in multiple series of scenarios using an integrated assessment model BET-GLUE, which comprises an energy-economic module (BET) and a bioenergy-land-use module (GLUE). The scenarios consider different technology assumptions on the availability of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and end-use efficiencies featuring electrification under a wide range of carbon price trajectories, which start at 1–690 USD/tCO2 in 2030, increase at 4.5%/year, and level off in 2100. This scenario design allows close examination of energy, economic, and environmental implications of different levels of policy stringency and carbon budgets. While improving end-use efficiencies consistently decrease policy costs for a wide range of carbon budgets, the value of BECCS availability in terms of cost reduction is crucial only in a limited range toward lower budgets. Constraints on BECCS, including those indirectly imposed by the limited bioenergy supply, also tend to narrow the lower range of attainable budget levels, indicating technological and economic challenges, although they may have an impact on reducing the total budget including land-use emissions. Overall, the advanced end-use efficiency has a significant effect on the required level of policy stringency for a given climate goal, so that it can compensate for the biomass constraints.
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Fu, Qi, Mengfan Gao, Yue Wang, Tinghui Wang, Xu Bi y Jinhua Chen. "Spatiotemporal Patterns and Drivers of the Carbon Budget in the Yangtze River Delta Region, China". Land 11, n.º 8 (3 de agosto de 2022): 1230. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/land11081230.
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Improving our understanding of the patterns and drivers of regional carbon budgets is critical to mitigating climate change regionally and globally. Different from previous research, our study attempts to reveal the comprehensive impact of climate change and human activities factors on the carbon budget. Based on the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford approach (CASA) model, the IPCC inventory method, the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model, the Geodetector model, and the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method, we investigated the spatiotemporal patterns of the carbon budget in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region from 2000 to 2015 and analyzed the effects of climate change and human activities on the carbon budget. The results showed that the carbon budget in the YRD region changed from 271.33 million tons in 2000 to −1193.76 million tons in 2015. During this period, the changes in the carbon budget per unit area in the four provinces all showed a decreasing trend, among which Shanghai decreased the most, followed by Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui. In terms of spatial pattern, the carbon budget of the YRD region has a “core-edge” structural feature. The closer it is to Shanghai, the core area, the more severe the carbon budget deficit; the farther from it, the greater the carbon budget surplus. Overall, we found that human activities have a greater impact on the carbon budget than climate change. The top three drivers were, in order, changes in population density, GDP per capita, and unused land, with q values of 0.3317, 0.1202, and 0.0998, respectively. Locally, the impact of the drivers on the carbon budget shows obvious spatial heterogeneity. In particular, the population density was negatively correlated with carbon budget changes in the entire study area, and the coefficients of GDP per capita and unused land were negative in most counties. Based on the results, we put forward suggestions for restricting population flow among the core area and the peripheral area, promoting industrial innovation in the core area and ecological protection in the peripheral area, as well as implementing three-dimensional space development in the core area and controlling the expansion of construction land in the peripheral area. Our study can provide a scientific basis for low-carbon development in the YRD region. The methodology and findings of this study can provide references for similar studies in other urbanized regions around the world.
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Wang, Hui, Wenshu Lin, Jinzhuo Wu y Zhaoping Luan. "Carbon Budget Assessment and Influencing Factors for Forest Enterprises in the Key State-Owned Forest Area of the Greater Khingan Range, Northeast China". Land 14, n.º 1 (31 de diciembre de 2024): 56. https://doi.org/10.3390/land14010056.
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Analyzing the spatial and temporal changes in the carbon budget and its influencing factors is the basis for formulating effective measures to reduce emissions and increase sinks. This study establishes a carbon budget assessment model for forest enterprises, calculating forest carbon stocks and enterprise emissions using volume-derived biomass and emission factor methods. The spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of carbon budgets for forest enterprises in the key state-owned forest area (2017–2021) were analyzed using various methods, including the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and hotspot analysis. Influencing factors are identified through correlation analysis and the optimal parameter geographical detector (OPGD), while their spatial-temporal variations and causal relationships are analyzed using the geographical and temporal weighted regression model (GTWR) and structural equation modeling (SEM). The carbon budget in the Greater Khingan Range state-owned forest area averaged 10.16 × 106 t CO2-eq from 2017 to 2021, showing a gradual upward trend. The average annual carbon budget of forest enterprises was 1.02 × 106 t CO2-eq, which was highest in the central regions and lowest in the periphery. Soil pH, forest area, and elevation are the primary factors. The interaction between paired factors enhances the explanatory power of their impact, and the effects of different influencing factors exhibit both positive and negative variations across forest enterprises. In addition, the middle-aged forest tending area and average annual precipitation positively influenced forest area and soil pH, indirectly enhancing the carbon budget through multifactor interactions. This research can enhance the understanding of the carbon budget in forest enterprises, providing scientific support for the ecological protection of state-owned forests and contributing to the development of sustainable forestry practices that indirectly benefit societal well-being and economic resilience.
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Priore, Y. D., T. Jusselme y G. Habert. "Deriving global carbon budgets for the Swiss built environment". Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2042, n.º 1 (1 de noviembre de 2021): 012172. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/2042/1/012172.
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Abstract In order to limit global warming, remaining carbon budgets have been defined by the IPCC in 2018. In this context translating global goals to local realities implicates a set of different challenges. Standardized methodologies of allocation can support a target-cascading process. On the other hand, local strategies and norms are not currently designed to directly respond to limited carbon budgets in a 2050 horizon. The life cycle assessment of buildings implicates an intricate cross-industry and cross-border carbon accounting. For these reasons, effective and aligned carbon targets are needed to support and guide all actors in the construction sector. This research aims at addressing these challenges by developing a new methodology of allocation of a global carbon budget at different scales using the Swiss built environment as a case study. This approach allows the assessment of current best practices in regards to limited carbon budgets. Results show misalignment of global goals with current practices at all levels and present the magnitude of effort that would be required to have a chance to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
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Lassey, K. R., D. M. Etheridge, D. C. Lowe, A. M. Smith y D. F. Ferretti. "Centennial evolution of the atmospheric methane budget: what do the carbon isotopes tell us?" Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 6, n.º 3 (21 de junio de 2006): 4995–5038. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-6-4995-2006.
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Abstract. Little is known about how the methane source inventory and sinks have evolved over recent centuries. New and detailed records of methane mixing ratio and isotopic composition (12CH4, 13CH4 and 14CH4) from analyses of air trapped in polar ice and firn can enhance this knowledge. We use existing bottom-up constructions of the source history, including ''EDGAR''-based constructions, to assemble a model of the evolving global budget for methane and for its carbon isotope composition through the 20th century. By matching such budgets to atmospheric data, we examine the constraints imposed by isotope information on those budget evolutions. Balancing both 12CH4 and 13CH4 budgets requires participation by a highly-fractionating atmospheric sink such as active chlorine (removing at least 10 Tg yr-1), which has been proposed independently. Examining a companion budget evolution for 14CH4 exposes uncertainties in inferring the fossil-methane source from atmospheric 14CH4 data. Specifically, methane evolution during the nuclear era is sensitive to the cycling dynamics of ''bomb 14C'' (originating from atmospheric weapons tests) through the biosphere. In addition, since ca 1970, direct production and release of 14CH4 from nuclear-power facilities is influential but poorly quantified. Atmospheric 14CH4 determinations in the nuclear era have the potential to better characterize biospheric carbon cycling and to better quantify the ill-determined nuclear-power source.
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Pilli, R., G. Grassi y A. Cescatti. "Historical analysis and modeling of the forest carbon dynamics using the Carbon Budget Model: an example for the Trento Province (NE, Italy)". Forest@ - Rivista di Selvicoltura ed Ecologia Forestale 11, n.º 1 (28 de febrero de 2014): 20–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.3832/efor1138-011.
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Bruhwiler, Lori, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Patrick Crill, Mark Leonard y Paul I. Palmer. "The Arctic Carbon Cycle and Its Response to Changing Climate". Current Climate Change Reports 7, n.º 1 (2 de febrero de 2021): 14–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40641-020-00169-5.
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Abstract Purpose of Review The Arctic has experienced the most rapid change in climate of anywhere on Earth, and these changes are certain to drive changes in the carbon budget of the Arctic as vegetation changes, soils warm, fires become more frequent, and wetlands evolve as permafrost thaws. In this study, we review the extensive evidence for Arctic climate change and effects on the carbon cycle. In addition, we re-evaluate some of the observational evidence for changing Arctic carbon budgets. Recent Findings Observations suggest a more active CO2 cycle in high northern latitude ecosystems. Evidence points to increased uptake by boreal forests and Arctic ecosystems, as well as increasing respiration, especially in autumn. However, there is currently no strong evidence of increased CH4 emissions. Summary Long-term observations using both bottom-up (e.g., flux) and top-down (atmospheric abundance) approaches are essential for understanding changing carbon cycle budgets. Consideration of atmospheric transport is critical for interpretation of top-down observations of atmospheric carbon.
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Rastetter, Edward B. y R. A. Houghton. "Carbon Budget Estimates". Science 258, n.º 5081 (16 de octubre de 1992): 382. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.258.5081.382.a.
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Rastetter, E. B. y R. A. Houghton. "Carbon Budget Estimates". Science 258, n.º 5081 (16 de octubre de 1992): 382. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.258.5081.382.
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Royle, Samuel. "Africa’s carbon budget". Nature Climate Change 14, n.º 5 (mayo de 2024): 427. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02014-1.
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Ito, Akihiko. "Disequilibrium of terrestrial ecosystem CO<sub>2</sub> budget caused by disturbance-induced emissions and non-CO<sub>2</sub> carbon export flows: a global model assessment". Earth System Dynamics 10, n.º 4 (5 de noviembre de 2019): 685–709. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-685-2019.
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Abstract. The global carbon budget of terrestrial ecosystems is chiefly determined by major flows of carbon dioxide (CO2) such as photosynthesis and respiration, but various minor flows exert considerable influence in determining carbon stocks and their turnover. This study assessed the effects of eight minor carbon flows on the terrestrial carbon budget using a process-based model, the Vegetation Integrative SImulator for Trace gases (VISIT), which included non-CO2 carbon flows, such as methane and biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions and subsurface carbon exports and disturbances such as biomass burning, land-use changes, and harvest activities. The range of model-associated uncertainty was evaluated through parameter-ensemble simulations and the results were compared with corresponding observational and modeling studies. In the historical period of 1901–2016, the VISIT simulation indicated that the minor flows substantially influenced terrestrial carbon stocks, flows, and budgets. The simulations estimated mean net ecosystem production in 2000–2009 as 3.21±1.1 Pg C yr−1 without minor flows and 6.85±0.9 Pg C yr−1 with minor flows. Including minor carbon flows yielded an estimated net biome production of 1.62±1.0 Pg C yr−1 in the same period. Biomass burning, wood harvest, export of organic carbon by water erosion, and BVOC emissions had impacts on the global terrestrial carbon budget amounting to around 1 Pg C yr−1 with specific interannual variabilities. After including the minor flows, ecosystem carbon storage was suppressed by about 440 Pg C, and its mean residence time was shortened by about 2.4 years. The minor flows occur heterogeneously over the land, such that BVOC emission, subsurface export, and wood harvest occur mainly in the tropics, and biomass burning occurs extensively in boreal forests. They also differ in their decadal trends, due to differences in their driving factors. Aggregating the simulation results by land-cover type, cropland fraction, and annual precipitation yielded more insight into the contributions of these minor flows to the terrestrial carbon budget. Considering their substantial and unique roles, these minor flows should be taken into account in the global carbon budget in an integrated manner.
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Arhipova, Irina, Nikolajs Bumanis, Liga Paura, Gundars Berzins, Aldis Erglis, Christian Rudloff, Gatis Vitols, Evija Ansonska, Vladimirs Salajevs y Juris Binde. "Municipal Transport Route Planning Based on Fair Mobility Budget". Rural Sustainability Research 50, n.º 345 (1 de diciembre de 2023): 44–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/plua-2023-0014.
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Abstract A series of initiatives have been adopted in the European Union to address greenhouse gas emissions and establish a society that is resilient to climate change. In response to these initiatives, the implementation of mobility budgets offers a more precise strategy for addressing carbon footprints associated with travel. Prioritizing localized carbon footprint control, mobility budgets are calculated and customized according to distinct regions, goals, and target demographics. When prioritizing the mobility budget as the central objective in municipal transport route planning, the focus should encompass principles of fairness and equity in travel. This entails considering factors such as accessibility, variety of mobility choices, inclusivity of transportation modes, and social justice. Therefore, this article aims to formulate an enhanced activity modelling methodology that would aid data-driven decision-making in municipal transport route planning, while upholding the principles of travel fairness and equity. Тhe results obtained from scrutinizing data related to public bus services and mobile networks are presented. The evaluation of Jelgava’s city transportation network to facilitate mobility budget reduction is undertaken, and this assessment is based on an analysis of data derived from a survey on public transport use coupled with an examination of the city’s mobility budget. The research presents the communication challenges that municipalities will face in planning and implementing changes that are needed to meet the greenhouse gas emission targets and outlines the possible use of visualization tools for modelling, explanation and communication of scenarios.
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van den Berg, Nicole J., Heleen L. van Soest, Andries F. Hof, Michel G. J. den Elzen, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Wenying Chen, Laurent Drouet et al. "Implications of various effort-sharing approaches for national carbon budgets and emission pathways". Climatic Change 162, n.º 4 (14 de febrero de 2019): 1805–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02368-y.
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Abstract The bottom-up approach of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in the Paris Agreement has led countries to self-determine their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. The planned ‘ratcheting-up’ process, which aims to ensure that the NDCs comply with the overall goal of limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C or even 1.5 °C, will most likely include some evaluation of ‘fairness’ of these reduction targets. In the literature, fairness has been discussed around equity principles, for which many different effort-sharing approaches have been proposed. In this research, we analysed how country-level emission targets and carbon budgets can be derived based on such criteria. We apply novel methods directly based on the global carbon budget, and, for comparison, more commonly used methods using GHG mitigation pathways. For both, we studied the following approaches: equal cumulative per capita emissions, contraction and convergence, grandfathering, greenhouse development rights and ability to pay. As the results critically depend on parameter settings, we used the wide authorship from a range of countries included in this paper to determine default settings and sensitivity analyses. Results show that effort-sharing approaches that (i) calculate required reduction targets in carbon budgets (relative to baseline budgets) and/or (ii) take into account historical emissions when determining carbon budgets can lead to (large) negative remaining carbon budgets for developed countries. This is the case for the equal cumulative per capita approach and especially the greenhouse development rights approach. Furthermore, for developed countries, all effort-sharing approaches except grandfathering lead to more stringent budgets than cost-optimal budgets, indicating that cost-optimal approaches do not lead to outcomes that can be regarded as fair according to most effort-sharing approaches.
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Lassey, K. R., D. M. Etheridge, D. C. Lowe, A. M. Smith y D. F. Ferretti. "Centennial evolution of the atmospheric methane budget: what do the carbon isotopes tell us?" Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 7, n.º 8 (2 de mayo de 2007): 2119–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-2119-2007.
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Abstract. Little is known about how the methane source inventory and sinks have evolved over recent centuries. New and detailed records of methane mixing ratio and isotopic composition (12CH4, 13CH4 and 14CH4) from analyses of air trapped in polar ice and firn can enhance this knowledge. We use existing bottom-up constructions of the source history, including "EDGAR"-based constructions, as inputs to a model of the evolving global budget for methane and for its carbon isotope composition through the 20th century. By matching such budgets to atmospheric data, we examine the constraints imposed by isotope information on those budget evolutions. Reconciling both 12CH4 and 13CH4 budgets with EDGAR-based source histories requires a combination of: a greater proportion of emissions from biomass burning and/or of fossil methane than EDGAR constructions suggest; a greater contribution from natural such emissions than is commonly supposed; and/or a significant role for active chlorine or other highly-fractionating tropospheric sink as has been independently proposed. Examining a companion budget evolution for 14CH4 exposes uncertainties in inferring the fossil-methane source from atmospheric 14CH4 data. Specifically, methane evolution during the nuclear era is sensitive to the cycling dynamics of "bomb 14C" (originating from atmospheric weapons tests) through the biosphere. In addition, since ca. 1970, direct production and release of 14CH4 from nuclear-power facilities is influential but poorly quantified. Atmospheric 14CH4 determinations in the nuclear era have the potential to better characterize both biospheric carbon cycling, from photosynthesis to methane synthesis, and the nuclear-power source.
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Servais, Pierre, Véronique Gosselain, Célia Joaquim-Justo, Sylvie Becquevort, Jean Pierre Thomé y Jean Pierre Descy. "Trophic relationships between planktonic microorganisms in the river Meuse (Belgium): a carbon budget". Fundamental and Applied Limnology 149, n.º 4 (24 de noviembre de 2000): 625–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/archiv-hydrobiol/149/2000/625.
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Kagemoto, Akane, Fumiaki Takakai, Osamu Nagata, Masayuki Takada y Ryusuke Hatano. "Spatial Evaluation of Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in a Sasa (Dwarf Bamboo) Invaded Wetland Ecosystem in Central Hokkaido, Japan". Atmosphere 12, n.º 4 (31 de marzo de 2021): 448. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos12040448.
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To evaluate the effect of vegetation change on greenhouse gas (GHG) budget from a wetland ecosystem, the CO2, CH4 and N2O budgets from whole area (21.5 ha) of the Bibai Wetland, where dwarf bamboo (Sasa) or Ilex has invaded into original Sphagnum dominated vegetation, located in Hokkaido, Japan were estimated. The original Sphagnum-dominated vegetation was changed from a sink to a source of CO2 by invasion of short-Sasa (50 cm > height), while the invasion of tall-Sasa (50 cm < height < 150 cm) or Ilex increased CO2 uptake. Annual CH4 emission was decreased by the invasion of Sasa or Ilex. The annual N2O emission was slightly increased by invasion of Ilex only. These GHG budgets were correlated with the environmental factors related to the water table depth. The distribution of vegetation and environmental factors was estimated from satellite image bands, and the GHG budget of the entire wetland was estimated. The whole wetland area was considered to be a sink for GHG (−113 Mg CO2-eq y−1) and CO2 uptake by tall-Sasa occupied 71% of the GHG budget. The vegetation change due to the lowering of the water table depth currently increases the rate of carbon accumulation in the ecosystem by about 5 times.
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Czerny, J., K. G. Schulz, T. Boxhammer, R. G. J. Bellerby, J. Büdenbender, A. Engel, S. A. Krug et al. "Element budgets in an Arctic mesocosm CO<sub>2</sub> perturbation study". Biogeosciences Discussions 9, n.º 8 (31 de agosto de 2012): 11885–924. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bgd-9-11885-2012.
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Abstract. Recent studies on the impacts of ocean acidification on pelagic communities have identified changes in carbon to nutrient dynamics with related shifts in elemental stoichiometry. In principle, mesocosm experiments provide the opportunity of determining the temporal dynamics of all relevant carbon and nutrient pools and, thus, calculating elemental budgets. In practice, attempts to budget mesocosm enclosures are often hampered by uncertainties in some of the measured pools and fluxes, in particular due to uncertainties in constraining air/sea gas exchange, particle sinking, and wall growth. In an Arctic mesocosm study on ocean acidification using KOSMOS (Kiel Off-Shore Mesocosms for future Ocean Simulation) all relevant element pools and fluxes of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus were measured, using an improved experimental design intended to narrow down some of the mentioned uncertainties. Water column concentrations of particulate and dissolved organic and inorganic constituents were determined daily. New approaches for quantitative estimates of material sinking to the bottom of the mesocosms and gas exchange in 48 h temporal resolution, as well as estimates of wall growth were developed to close the gaps in element budgets. Future elevated pCO2 was found to enhance net autotrophic community carbon uptake in 2 of the 3 experimental phases but did not significantly affect particle elemental composition. Enhanced carbon consumption appears to result in accumulation of dissolved organic compounds under nutrient recycling summer conditions. This carbon over-consumption effect becomes evident from budget calculations, but was too small to be resolved by direct measurements of dissolved organics. The out-competing of large diatoms by comparatively small algae in nutrient uptake caused reduced production rates under future ocean CO2 conditions in the end of the experiment. This CO2 induced shift away from diatoms towards smaller phytoplankton and enhanced cycling of dissolved organics was pushing the system towards a retention type food chain with overall negative effects on export potential.
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Bauer, Nico, David P. Keller, Julius Garbe, Kristine Karstens, Franziska Piontek, Werner von Bloh, Wim Thiery et al. "Exploring risks and benefits of overshooting a 1.5 °C carbon budget over space and time". Environmental Research Letters 18, n.º 5 (1 de mayo de 2023): 054015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/accd83.
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Abstract Temperature targets of the Paris Agreement limit global net cumulative emissions to very tight carbon budgets. The possibility to overshoot the budget and offset near-term excess emissions by net-negative emissions is considered economically attractive as it eases near-term mitigation pressure. While potential side effects of carbon removal deployment are discussed extensively, the additional climate risks and the impacts and damages have attracted less attention. We link six models for an integrative analysis of the climatic, environmental and socio-economic consequences of temporarily overshooting a carbon budget consistent with the 1.5 °C temperature target along the cause-effect chain from emissions and carbon removals to climate risks and impact. Global climatic indicators such as CO2-concentration and mean temperature closely follow the carbon budget overshoot with mid-century peaks of 50 ppmv and 0.35 °C, respectively. Our findings highlight that investigating overshoot scenarios requires temporally and spatially differentiated analysis of climate, environmental and socioeconomic systems. We find persistent and spatially heterogeneous differences in the distribution of carbon across various pools, ocean heat content, sea-level rise as well as economic damages. Moreover, we find that key impacts, including degradation of marine ecosystem, heat wave exposure and economic damages, are more severe in equatorial areas than in higher latitudes, although absolute temperature changes being stronger in higher latitudes. The detrimental effects of a 1.5 °C warming and the additional effects due to overshoots are strongest in non-OECD countries (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development). Constraining the overshoot inflates CO2 prices, thus shifting carbon removal towards early afforestation while reducing the total cumulative deployment only slightly, while mitigation costs increase sharply in developing countries. Thus, scenarios with carbon budget overshoots can reverse global mean temperature increase but imply more persistent and geographically heterogeneous impacts. Overall, the decision about overshooting implies more severe trade-offs between mitigation and impacts in developing countries.
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Thürig, Esther y Stéphanie Schmid. "Jährliche CO2-Flüsse im Wald: Berechnungsmethode für das Treibhausgasinventar | Annual CO2 fluxes in forests: calculation method for the Greenhouse Gas Inventory". Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Forstwesen 159, n.º 2 (1 de febrero de 2008): 31–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.3188/szf.2008.0031.
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Forests can be carbon sinks as well as carbon sources. In the Kyoto Protocol, forests play a special role. According to Art. 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol, Switzerland has decided to account for forest management. Since 1990, each participating country must submit the Greenhouse Gas Inventory (GHGI) to the climate convention. These inventories build the basis for the annual estimation of carbon sink and sources under the Kyoto Protocol. This article describes the calculation method of the forest carbon budget in the Swiss GHGI, which is obtained by utilizing the database of the Swiss National Forest Inventory (NFI 1 and 2). Annual CO2-budgets are derived from using the annual wood production, annual climate values, and a climate-sensitive growth model. The large spatial and temporal resolutions of the emission data and factors optimally represent the spatial heterogeneity in Switzerland. The main gaps are in estimating carbon fluxes in dead wood and soil. Moreover, the effect of the annual climate variation on average growth should be investigated in more detail. Once the NFI3 data are available, CO2-budgets will need to be recalculated going as far back as 1995.
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Le Quéré, C., G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, R. M. Andrew, T. A. Boden, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein et al. "Global carbon budget 2013". Earth System Science Data 6, n.º 1 (17 de junio de 2014): 235–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-235-2014.
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Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003–2012), EFF was 8.6 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 2.8 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For year 2012 alone, EFF grew to 9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 2.2% above 2011, reflecting a continued growing trend in these emissions, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and assuming an ELUC of 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (based on the 2001–2010 average), SLAND was 2.7 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was high in 2012 compared to the 2003–2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 392.52 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2012. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.1% (1.1–3.1%) to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC in 2013, 61% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. With this projection, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 535 ± 55 GtC for 1870–2013, about 70% from EFF (390 ± 20 GtC) and 30% from ELUC (145 ± 50 GtC). This paper also documents any changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget from previous budgets (Le Quéré et al., 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2013_V2.3).
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Le Quéré, C., R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, J. G. Canadell, S. Sitch, J. I. Korsbakken, P. Friedlingstein et al. "Global Carbon Budget 2015". Earth System Science Data 7, n.º 2 (7 de diciembre de 2015): 349–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015.
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Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr−1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6 [range of −1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2015, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015).
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Le Quéré, C., R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, G. P. Peters, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, S. D. Jones et al. "Global carbon budget 2014". Earth System Science Data 7, n.º 1 (8 de mayo de 2015): 47–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015.
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Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004–2013), EFF was 8.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 2.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For year 2013 alone, EFF grew to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 2.3% above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in EFF and smaller and opposite changes between SOCEAN and SLAND compared to the past decade (2004–2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.5% (1.3–3.5%) to 10.1 ± 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 ± 2.2 GtCO2 yr−1), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 ± 55 GtC (2000 ± 200 GtCO2) for 1870–2014, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living data set (Le Quéré et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014).
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Le Quéré, Corinne, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Stephen Sitch, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Andrew C. Manning et al. "Global Carbon Budget 2016". Earth System Science Data 8, n.º 2 (14 de noviembre de 2016): 605–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016.
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Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006–2015), EFF was 9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.5 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8 % yr−1 that took place during 2006–2015. Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.3 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 1.9 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006–2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with +0.2 % (range of −1.0 to +1.8 %) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Niño conditions of 2015–2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565 ± 55 GtC (2075 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2016, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2016).
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Le Quéré, C., G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, R. M. Andrew, T. Boden, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein et al. "Global carbon budget 2013". Earth System Science Data Discussions 6, n.º 2 (19 de noviembre de 2013): 689–760. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essdd-6-689-2013.
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Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe datasets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from Land-Use Change (ELUC), including deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models. All uncertainties are reported as ± 1 sigma, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003–2012), EFF was 8.6 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, ELUC 0.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 2.6 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For year 2012 alone, EFF grew to 9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 2.2% above 2011, reflecting a continued trend in these emissions; GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and assuming and ELUC of 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (based on 2001–2010 average), SLAND was 2.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was high in 2012 compared to the 2003–2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 392.52 ± 0.10 ppm on average over 2012. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.1% (1.1–3.1%) to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC in 2013, 61% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of World Gross Domestic Product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. With this projection, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 550 ± 60 GtC for 1870–2013, 70% from EFF (390 ± 20 GtC) and 30% from ELUC (160 ± 55 GtC). This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future. All data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2013_v1.1).
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Le Quéré, C., R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, G. P. Peters, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, S. D. Jones et al. "Global carbon budget 2014". Earth System Science Data Discussions 7, n.º 2 (21 de septiembre de 2014): 521–610. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essdd-7-521-2014.
Texto completoResumen
Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe datasets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from Land-Use Change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent Dynamic Global Vegetation Models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the variability and mean land and ocean fluxes to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004–2013), EFF was 8.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 2.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For year 2013 alone, EFF grew to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 2.3% above 2012, contining the growth trend in these emissions. ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 and SLAND was 2.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was high in 2013 reflecting a steady increase in EFF and smaller and opposite changes between SOCEAN and SLAND compared to the past decade (2004–2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.5% (1.3–3.5%) to 10.1 ± 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 ± 2.2 GtCO2 yr−1), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of World Gross Domestic Product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 ± 55 GtC (2000 ± 200 GtCO2) for 1870–2014, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living dataset (Le Quéré et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014). Italic font highlights significant methodological changes and results compared to the Le Quéré et al. (2014) manuscript that accompanies the previous version of this living data.
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Friedlingstein, Pierre, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré et al. "Global Carbon Budget 2021". Earth System Science Data 14, n.º 4 (26 de abril de 2022): 1917–2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022.
Texto completoResumen
Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries' climate progress. For the year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4 % relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of 10.2 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (37.4 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2020, GATM was 5.0 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.9 ± 1 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.8 GtC yr−1. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2021 suggest a rebound in EFOS relative to 2020 of +4.8 % (4.2 % to 5.4 %) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2020, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this dataset (Friedlingstein et al., 2020, 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021).
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Friedlingstein, Pierre, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré et al. "Global Carbon Budget 2021". Earth System Science Data 14, n.º 4 (26 de abril de 2022): 1917–2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022.
Texto completoResumen
Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries' climate progress. For the year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4 % relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of 10.2 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (37.4 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2020, GATM was 5.0 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.9 ± 1 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.8 GtC yr−1. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2021 suggest a rebound in EFOS relative to 2020 of +4.8 % (4.2 % to 5.4 %) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2020, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this dataset (Friedlingstein et al., 2020, 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021).
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Friedlingstein, Pierre, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré et al. "Global Carbon Budget 2021". Earth System Science Data 14, n.º 4 (26 de abril de 2022): 1917–2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022.
Texto completoResumen
Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries' climate progress. For the year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4 % relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of 10.2 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (37.4 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2020, GATM was 5.0 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.9 ± 1 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.8 GtC yr−1. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2021 suggest a rebound in EFOS relative to 2020 of +4.8 % (4.2 % to 5.4 %) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2020, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this dataset (Friedlingstein et al., 2020, 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021).
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Le Quéré, Corinne, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Judith Hauck, Julia Pongratz, Penelope A. Pickers et al. "Global Carbon Budget 2018". Earth System Science Data 10, n.º 4 (5 de diciembre de 2018): 2141–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018.
Texto completoResumen
Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use and land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2008–2017), EFF was 9.4±0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7±0.02 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4±0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.2±0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.5 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2017 alone, the growth in EFF was about 1.6 % and emissions increased to 9.9±0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2017, ELUC was 1.4±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.6±0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.5±0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 405.0±0.1 ppm averaged over 2017. For 2018, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.7 % (range of 1.8 % to 3.7 %) based on national emission projections for China, the US, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. The analysis presented here shows that the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period of 1959–2017, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations show (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions, (2) a persistent low agreement among the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models, originating outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2018.
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Le Quéré, Corinne, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Julia Pongratz, Andrew C. Manning, Jan Ivar Korsbakken et al. "Global Carbon Budget 2017". Earth System Science Data 10, n.º 1 (12 de marzo de 2018): 405–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018.
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Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the global carbon budget – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007–2016), EFF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a small BIM of −0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007–2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small SLAND consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017 (GCP, 2017).
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Friedlingstein, Pierre, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters et al. "Global Carbon Budget 2019". Earth System Science Data 11, n.º 4 (4 de diciembre de 2019): 1783–838. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019.
Texto completoResumen
Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009–2018), EFF was 9.5±0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.9±0.02 GtC yr−1 (2.3±0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5±0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.2±0.6 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.4 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in EFF was about 2.1 % and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC yr−1, reaching 10 GtC yr−1 for the first time in history, ELUC was 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.5±3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, GATM was 5.1±0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4±0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.6±0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in EFF of +0.6 % (range of −0.2 % to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). The data generated by this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2019 (Friedlingstein et al., 2019).
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Friedlingstein, Pierre, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters et al. "Global Carbon Budget 2020". Earth System Science Data 12, n.º 4 (11 de diciembre de 2020): 3269–340. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020.
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Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2010–2019), EFOS was 9.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.6 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1. For the same decade, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.02 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.4 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of −0.1 GtC yr−1 indicating a near balance between estimated sources and sinks over the last decade. For the year 2019 alone, the growth in EFOS was only about 0.1 % with fossil emissions increasing to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 excluding the cement carbonation sink (9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.8 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.2 ± 3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2019, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.1 ± 1.2 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 409.85 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2019. Preliminary data for 2020, accounting for the COVID-19-induced changes in emissions, suggest a decrease in EFOS relative to 2019 of about −7 % (median estimate) based on individual estimates from four studies of −6 %, −7 %, −7 % (−3 % to −11 %), and −13 %. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2019, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from diverse approaches and observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent discrepancy between the different methods for the ocean sink outside the tropics, particularly in the Southern Ocean. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2020 (Friedlingstein et al., 2020).
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W., A. "Balancing the carbon budget". Nature 356, n.º 6370 (abril de 1992): 561. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/356561b0.
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van der Ploeg, Frederick. "The safe carbon budget". Climatic Change 147, n.º 1-2 (27 de enero de 2018): 47–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2132-8.
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Friedlingstein, Pierre, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré et al. "Global Carbon Budget 2022". Earth System Science Data 14, n.º 11 (11 de noviembre de 2022): 4811–900. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022.
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Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2021, GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.6 GtC yr−1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).
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Friedlingstein, Pierre, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer et al. "Global Carbon Budget 2023". Earth System Science Data 15, n.º 12 (5 de diciembre de 2023): 5301–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023.
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Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2 products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, and Earth system models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2022, EFOS increased by 0.9 % relative to 2021, with fossil emissions at 9.9±0.5 Gt C yr−1 (10.2±0.5 Gt C yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is not included), and ELUC was 1.2±0.7 Gt C yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1±0.8 Gt C yr−1 (40.7±3.2 Gt CO2 yr−1). Also, for 2022, GATM was 4.6±0.2 Gt C yr−1 (2.18±0.1 ppm yr−1; ppm denotes parts per million), SOCEAN was 2.8±0.4 Gt C yr−1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 Gt C yr−1, with a BIM of −0.1 Gt C yr−1 (i.e. total estimated sources marginally too low or sinks marginally too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2022 reached 417.1±0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2023 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2022 of +1.1 % (0.0 % to 2.1 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 419.3 ppm, 51 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean of and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2022, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 Gt C yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows the following: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living-data update documents changes in methods and data sets applied to this most recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2023 (Friedlingstein et al., 2023).
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Stout, Josh y Gary Taghon. "Compensatory partitioning of carbon budgets by the grass shrimp (Palaemonetes pugio) and implications for predator prey relationships". Open Life Sciences 9, n.º 1 (1 de enero de 2014): 19–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/s11535-013-0177-2.
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AbstractCarbon utilization and allocation were examined between two populations of shrimp (Palaemonetes pugio) to determine the possible effects of living in an area of high anthropogenic impact. Carbon assimilation has been studied in P. pugio, but no study has looked at how assimilation might be influenced by contaminants. Anthropogenic effects on carbon assimilation in grass shrimp represent a major unmeasured impact on the carbon budget of multi-cellular organisms in estuaries and near shore environments. The influence of anthropogenic contamination on carbon assimilation has implications for predicting the environmental impact of contaminants, for models of estuarine function, and trophic transfer from the dominant macroscopic detritus processor to species of direct economic importance. Shrimp budgets were compared between two populations, one from a highly polluted marsh creek system in Northern New Jersey, and one from a clean reference site in Southern New Jersey. All components of the carbon budgets were measured directly including carbon allocated to reproduction. Carbon lost to respiration was lower in shrimp from the polluted system allowing them to have increased reproductive output. This is examined in the context of previous studies that show lowered predation by a piscine predator at the polluted site, resulting in a trophic cascade and changes in ecosystem function due to anthropogenic impacts.
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Xi, Yi, Chunjing Qiu, Yuan Zhang, Dan Zhu, Shushi Peng, Gustaf Hugelius, Jinfeng Chang, Elodie Salmon y Philippe Ciais. "Assessment of a tiling energy budget approach in a land surface model, ORCHIDEE-MICT (r8205)". Geoscientific Model Development 17, n.º 12 (18 de junio de 2024): 4727–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4727-2024.
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Abstract. The surface energy budget plays a critical role in terrestrial hydrological and biogeochemical cycles. Nevertheless, its highly spatial heterogeneity across different vegetation types is still missing in the ORCHIDEE-MICT (ORganizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic EcosystEms–aMeliorated Interactions between Carbon and Temperature) land surface model. In this study, we describe the representation of a tiling energy budget in ORCHIDEE-MICT and assess its short-term and long-term impacts on energy, hydrology, and carbon processes. With the specific values of surface properties for each vegetation type, the new version presents warmer surface and soil temperatures (∼ 0.5 °C, +3 %), wetter soil moisture (∼ 10 kg m−2, +2 %), and increased soil organic carbon storage (∼ 170 Pg C, +9 %) across the Northern Hemisphere. Despite reproducing the absolute values and spatial gradients of surface and soil temperatures from satellite and in situ observations, the considerable uncertainties in simulated soil organic carbon and hydrological processes prevent an obvious improvement in the temperature bias existing in the original ORCHIDEE-MICT model. However, the separation of sub-grid energy budgets in the new version improves permafrost simulation greatly by accounting for the presence of discontinuous permafrost types (∼ 3×106 km2), which will facilitate various permafrost-related studies in the future.
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Peng, Xuefeng, Bin Chen* y Shi He. "Fuel Budget for Tobacco Logistics Distribution Based on MA -Least Squares Method". International Business & Economics Studies 6, n.º 4 (8 de agosto de 2024): p196. http://dx.doi.org/10.22158/ibes.v6n4p196.
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Implementing the dual carbon development strategy is a responsibility and task that state-owned enterprises must undertake. Research has found effective financial budgets, which can drive innovative development and promote green development. This article takes the commercial logistics distribution of cigarettes as the research object and proposes a distribution budget model based on quadratic moving average combined with least squares method. By collecting historical data, a quadratic moving average distribution mileage prediction model is established. Based on the distribution mileage, the fuel consumption is calculated using the least squares method, and then combined with the average fuel price, the fuel cost is scientifically and rigorously predicted to make accurate and effective budgets.