Journal articles on the topic 'Wind forecasting Antarctica'
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Nigro, Melissa A., and John J. Cassano. "Identification of Surface Wind Patterns over the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, Using Self-Organizing Maps." Monthly Weather Review 142, no. 7 (June 27, 2014): 2361–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-13-00382.1.
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Abstract The interaction of synoptic and mesoscale circulations with the steep topography surrounding the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, greatly influences the wind patterns in the region of the Ross Ice Shelf. The topography provides forcing for features such as katabatic winds, barrier winds, and barrier wind corner jets. The combination of topographic forcing and synoptic and mesoscale forcing from cyclones that traverse the Ross Ice Shelf sector create a region of strong but varying winds. This paper identifies the dominant surface wind patterns over the Ross Ice Shelf using output from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model run within the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System and the method of self-organizing maps (SOM). The dataset has 15-km grid spacing and is the first study to identify the dominant surface wind patterns using data at this resolution. The analysis shows that the Ross Ice Shelf airstream, a dominant stream of air flowing northward from the interior of the continent over the western and/or central Ross Ice Shelf to the Ross Sea, is present over the Ross Ice Shelf approximately 34% of the time, the Ross Ice Shelf airstream varies in both its strength and position over the Ross Ice Shelf, and barrier wind corner jets are present in the region to the northwest of the Prince Olav Mountains approximately 14% of the time and approximately 41% of the time when the Ross Ice Shelf airstream is present.
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Powers, Jordan G. "Numerical Prediction of an Antarctic Severe Wind Event with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model." Monthly Weather Review 135, no. 9 (September 1, 2007): 3134–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr3459.1.
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Abstract This study initiates the application of the maturing Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to the polar regions in the context of the real-time Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS). The behavior of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) in a high-latitude setting and its ability to capture a significant Antarctic weather event are investigated. Also, in a suite of sensitivity tests, the impacts of the assimilation of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) atmospheric motion vectors on ARW Antarctic forecasts are explored. The simulation results are analyzed and the statistical significance of error differences is assessed. It is found that with the proper consideration of MODIS data the ARW can accurately simulate a major Antarctic event, the May 2004 McMurdo windstorm. The ARW simulations illuminate an episode of high-momentum flow responding to the complex orography of the vital Ross Island region. While the model captures the synoptic setting and basic trajectory of the cyclone driving the event, there are differences on the mesoscale in the evolution of the low pressure system that significantly affect the forecast results. In general, both the ARW and AMPS’s fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) tend to underforecast the wind magnitudes, reflecting their stalling and filling of the system near Ross Island. It is seen, however, that both targeted data assimilation and grid resolution enhancement can yield improvement in the forecast of the key parameter of wind speed. It is found that the assimilation of MODIS observations can significantly improve the forecast for a high-impact Antarctic weather event. However, the application to the retrievals of a filter accounting for instrument channel, observation height, and surface type is necessary. The results indicate benefits to initial conditions and high-resolution, polar, mesoscale forecasts from the careful assimilation of nontraditional satellite observations over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean.
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Kwon, Hataek, Seong-Joong Kim, Sang-Woo Kim, and Sinu Kim. "Topographical effect of the Antarctic Peninsula on a strong wind event." Antarctic Science 33, no. 6 (October 20, 2021): 674–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0954102021000444.
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AbstractThe topographical effect on a strong wind event that occurred on 7 January 2013 at King Sejong Station (KSJ), Antarctica, was investigated using the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Numerical experiments applying three different terrain heights of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) were performed to quantitatively estimate the topographical effect on the selected strong wind event. The experiment employing original AP topography successfully represented the observed features in the strong wind event, both in terms of peak wind speed (by ~94%; ~19.7 m/s) and abrupt transitions of wind speed. In contrast, the experiment with a flattened terrain height significantly underestimated the peak wind speeds (by ~51%; ~10.4 m/s) of the observations. An absence of AP topography failed to simulate both a strong discontinuity of sea-level pressure fields around the east coast of the AP and a strong south-easterly wind over the AP. As a result, the observed downslope windstorm, driven by a flow overriding a barrier, was not formed at the western side of the AP, resulting in no further enhancement of the wind at KSJ. This result demonstrates that the topography of the AP played a critical role in driving the strong wind event at KSJ on 7 January 2013, accounting for ~50% of the total wind speed.
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Adams, Neil. "Identifying the Characteristics of Strong Southerly Wind Events at Casey Station in East Antarctica Using a Numerical Weather Prediction System." Monthly Weather Review 133, no. 12 (December 1, 2005): 3548–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr3050.1.
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Abstract Casey Station in East Antarctica is not often subject to strong southerly flow off the Antarctic continent but when such events occur, operations at the station are often adversely impacted. Not only are the dynamics of such events poorly understood, but the forecasting of such occurrences is difficult. The following study uses model output from a 12-month experiment using the Antarctic Limited-Area Prediction System (ALAPS) to advance the understanding of the dynamics of such events and postulates that what are often described as katabatic wind events are more likely to be synoptic in scale, with mid- and upper-level tropospheric dynamics forcing the surface layer flow. Strong surface layer flows that have a katabatic signature commonly develop on the steep Antarctic escarpment but rarely extend out over the coast in the Casey area, most probably as a result of cold air damming. However, the development of a strong south-southwesterly jet over Casey provides a mechanism whereby the katabatic can move out off the coast.
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Hole, Lars R., Alexis Pérez Bello, Tjarda J. Roberts, Paul B. Voss, and Timo Vihma. "Measurements by controlled meteorological balloons in coastal areas of Antarctica." Antarctic Science 28, no. 5 (June 6, 2016): 387–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0954102016000213.
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AbstractAn experiment applying controlled meteorological (CMET) balloons near the coast of Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, in January 2013 is described. Two balloons were airborne for 60 and 106 hours with trajectory lengths of 885.8 km and 2367.4 km, respectively. The balloons carried out multiple controlled soundings on the atmospheric pressure, temperature and humidity up to 3.3 km. Wind speed and direction were derived from the balloon drift. Observations were compared with radiosonde sounding profiles from the Halley Research Station, and applied in evaluating simulations carried out with the weather research and forecasting (WRF) mesoscale atmospheric model. The most interesting feature detected by the CMET balloons was a mesoscale anticyclone over the Weddell Sea and the coastal zone, which was reproduced by the WRF model with reduced intensity. The modelled wind speed was up to 10 m s-1 slower and the relative humidity was 20–40% higher than the observed values. However, over the study period the WRF results generally agreed with the observations. The results suggest that CMET balloons could be an interesting supplement to Antarctic atmospheric observations, particularly in the free troposphere.
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Xiao, Qingnong, Ying-Hwa Kuo, Zaizhong Ma, Wei Huang, Xiang-Yu Huang, Xiaoyan Zhang, Dale M. Barker, John Michalakes, and Jimy Dudhia. "Application of an Adiabatic WRF Adjoint to the Investigation of the May 2004 McMurdo, Antarctica, Severe Wind Event." Monthly Weather Review 136, no. 10 (October 2008): 3696–713. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008mwr2235.1.
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The tangent linear and adjoint of an adiabatic version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with its Advanced Research WRF (ARW) dynamic core have been developed. The source-to-source automatic differentiation tool [i.e., the Transformation of Algorithm (TAF) in FORTRAN] was used in the development. Tangent linear and adjoint checks of the developed adiabatic WRF adjoint modeling system (WAMS) were conducted, and all necessary correctness verification procedures were passed. As the first application, the adiabatic WAMS was used to study the adjoint sensitivity of a severe windstorm in Antarctica. Linearity tests indicated that an adjoint-based sensitivity study with the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) 90-km domain configuration for the windstorm is valid up to 24 h. The adjoint-based sensitivity calculation with adiabatic WAMS identified sensitive regions for the improvement of the 24-h forecast of the windstorm. It is indicated that the windstorm forecast largely relies on the model initial conditions in the area from the south part of the Trans-Antarctic Mountains to West Antarctica and between the Ross Ice Shelf and the South Pole. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the southerly or southeasterly wind at lower levels in the sensitivity region should be larger, the cyclone should be stronger, and the atmospheric stratification should be more stable over the north slope of the Trans-Antarctic Mountain to the Ross Ice Shelf, than the AMPS analyses. By constructing pseudo-observations in the sensitivity region using the gradient information of forecast windstorm intensity around McMurdo, the model initial conditions are revised with the WRF three-dimensional variational data assimilation, which leads to significant improvement in the prediction of the windstorm. An adjoint sensitivity study is an efficient way to identify sensitivity regions in order to collect more observations in the region for better forecasts in a specific aspect of interest.
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Thapliyal, Rohit. "Analysis of Stratospheric Ozone and Meteorological Parameters observed at Bharati station, Larsemann Hills, Antarctica during 37th Indian Scientific Expedition to Antarctica." MAUSAM 73, no. 3 (July 1, 2022): 607–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v73i3.1322.
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India along with South America, Africa, Antarctica, and Australia was part of the supercontinent Gondwana some 140 million years ago. When the supercontinent split up, the Indian plat moved north-eastward while the Australian and African plates moved comparatively less distance and at much lower speeds. The Antarctica remained almost stationary. The 37th Indian Scientific Expedition to Antarctica was the fourth wintering of India Meteorological Department (IMD) members at Bharati station, Larsemann Hills, Antarctica. During the expedition recording of meteorological surface & upper air observations, vertical ozone measurement, continuous weather monitoring and forecasting were performed. All these meteorological parameters were thoroughly analyzed and studied. Temperature analysis showed that the coldest month was September and warmest was January. Strong and persistent north-easterly near-surface winds were observed throughout the year with May being the windiest month. During the period, 9 numbers of blizzards spanning a period of 15 days were observed with a maximum wind gust of 80 knots during a blizzard on 5th August 2018. During the expedition, a total of 32 balloon-borne GPS based ozone sonde ascents were taken and their analysis showed that the minimum thickness of ozone concentration is found between 15th September and 10th October. Also, the space weather, special meteorological phenomena and fauna found near Bharati station was observed and documented in this study.
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Belova, Evgenia, Sheila Kirkwood, Peter Voelger, Sourav Chatterjee, Karathazhiyath Satheesan, Susanna Hagelin, Magnus Lindskog, and Heiner Körnich. "Validation of Aeolus winds using ground-based radars in Antarctica and in northern Sweden." Atmospheric Measurement Techniques 14, no. 8 (August 6, 2021): 5415–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5415-2021.
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Abstract. Winds measured by lidar from the Aeolus satellite are compared with winds measured by two ground-based radars – MARA in Antarctica (70.77∘ S, 11.73∘ E) and ESRAD (67.88∘ N, 21.10∘ E) in Arctic Sweden – for the period 1 July–31 December 2019. Aeolus is a demonstrator mission to test whether winds measured by Doppler lidar from space can have sufficient accuracy to contribute to improved weather forecasting. A comprehensive programme of calibration and validation has been undertaken following the satellite launch in 2018, but, so far, direct comparison with independent measurements from the Arctic or Antarctic regions have not been made. The comparison covers heights from the low troposphere to just above the tropopause. Results for each radar site are presented separately for Rayleigh (clear) winds, Mie (cloudy) winds, sunlit (“summer”) and non-sunlit (“winter”) seasons, and ascending and descending satellite tracks. Horizontally projected line-of-sight (HLOS) winds from Aeolus, reprocessed using baseline 2B10, for passes within 100 km of the radar sites, are compared with HLOS winds calculated from 1 h averaged radar horizontal wind components. The agreement in most data subsets is very good, with no evidence of significant biases (<1 m s−1). Possible biases are identified for two subsets (about −2 m s−1 for the Rayleigh winds for the descending passes at MARA and about 2 m s−1 for the Mie winds for the ascending passes at ESRAD, both in winter), but these are only marginally significant. A robust significant bias of about 7 m s−1 is found for the Mie winds for the ascending tracks at MARA in summer. There is also some evidence for increased random error (by about 1 m s−1) for the Aeolus Mie winds at MARA in summer compared to winter. This might be related to the presence of sunlight scatter over the whole of Antarctica as Aeolus transits across it during summer.
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Mihalikova, M., S. Kirkwood, J. Arnault, and D. Mikhaylova. "Observation of a tropopause fold by MARA VHF wind-profiler radar and ozonesonde at Wasa, Antarctica: comparison with ECMWF analysis and a WRF model simulation." Annales Geophysicae 30, no. 9 (September 28, 2012): 1411–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/angeo-30-1411-2012.
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Abstract. Tropopause folds are one of the mechanisms of stratosphere–troposphere exchange, which can bring ozone rich stratospheric air to low altitudes in the extra-tropical regions. They have been widely studied at northern mid- or high latitudes, but so far almost no studies have been made at mid- or high southern latitudes. The Moveable Atmospheric Radar for Antarctica (MARA), a 54.5 MHz wind-profiler radar, has operated at the Swedish summer station Wasa, Antarctica (73° S, 13.5° W) during austral summer seasons from 2007 to 2011 and has observed on several occasions signatures similar to those caused by tropopause folds at comparable Arctic latitudes. Here a case study is presented of one of these events when an ozonesonde successfully sampled the fold. Analysis from European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) is used to study the circumstances surrounding the event, and as boundary conditions for a mesoscale simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The fold is well resolved by the WRF simulation, and occurs on the poleward side of the polar jet stream. However, MARA resolves fine-scale layering associated with the fold better than the WRF simulation.
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Nigro, Melissa A., John J. Cassano, Jonathan Wille, David H. Bromwich, and Matthew A. Lazzara. "A Self-Organizing-Map-Based Evaluation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System Using Observations from a 30-m Instrumented Tower on the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica." Weather and Forecasting 32, no. 1 (January 11, 2017): 223–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-16-0084.1.
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Abstract Accurate representation of the stability of the surface layer in numerical weather prediction models is important because of the impact it has on forecasts of surface energy, moisture, and momentum fluxes. It also impacts boundary layer processes such as the generation of turbulence, the creation of near-surface flows, and fog formation. This paper uses observations from a 30-m automatic weather station on the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, to evaluate the near-surface layer in the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS), a numerical weather prediction system used for forecasting in Antarctica. The method of self-organizing maps (SOM) is used to identify characteristic potential temperature anomaly profiles observed at the 30-m tower. The SOM-identified profiles are then used to evaluate the performance of AMPS as a function of atmospheric stability. The results indicate AMPS underpredicts the frequency of near-neutral profiles and instead overpredicts the frequency of weakly unstable and weak to moderately stable profiles. AMPS does not forecast the strongest statically stable patterns observed by Tall Tower, but in the median, the AMPS forecasts are more statically stable across all wind speeds, indicating a possible mechanical mixing error or a negative radiation bias. The SOM analysis identifies a negative radiation bias under near-neutral to weakly stable conditions, causing an overrepresentation of the static stability in AMPS. AMPS has a positive wind speed bias in moderate to strongly stable conditions, which generates too much mechanical mixing and an underrepresentation of the static stability. Model errors increase with increasing atmospheric stability.
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Holmes, R. E., C. R. Stearns, G. A. Weidner, and L. M. Keller. "Utilization of Automatic Weather Station Data for Forecasting High Wind Speeds at Pegasus Runway, Antarctica." Weather and Forecasting 15, no. 2 (April 2000): 137–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2000)015<0137:uoawsd>2.0.co;2.
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Wille, Jonathan D., David H. Bromwich, Melissa A. Nigro, John J. Cassano, Marian Mateling, Matthew A. Lazzara, and Sheng-Hung Wang. "Evaluation of the AMPS Boundary Layer Simulations on the Ross Ice Shelf with Tower Observations." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 55, no. 11 (November 2016): 2349–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-16-0032.1.
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AbstractFlight operations in Antarctica rely on accurate weather forecasts aided by the numerical predictions primarily produced by the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) that employs the polar version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (Polar WRF) Model. To improve the performance of the model’s Mellor–Yamada–Janjić (MYJ) planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme, this study examines 1.5 yr of meteorological data provided by the 30-m Alexander Tall Tower! (ATT) automatic weather station on the western Ross Ice Shelf from March 2011 to July 2012. Processed ATT observations at 10-min intervals from the multiple observational levels are compared with the 5-km-resolution AMPS forecasts run daily at 0000 and 1200 UTC. The ATT comparison shows that AMPS has fundamental issues with moisture and handling stability as a function of wind speed. AMPS has a 10-percentage-point (i.e., RH unit) relative humidity dry bias year-round that is highest when katabatic winds from the Byrd and Mulock Glaciers exceed 15 m s−1. This is likely due to nonlocal effects such as errors in the moisture content of the katabatic flow and AMPS not parameterizing the sublimation from blowing snow. AMPS consistently overestimates the wind speed at the ATT by 1–2 m s−1, in agreement with previous studies that attribute the high wind speed bias to the MYJ scheme. This leads to reduced stability in the simulated PBL, thus affecting the model’s ability to properly simulate the transfer of heat and momentum throughout the PBL.
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Zawar-Reza, Peyman, Steve George, Bryan Storey, and Wendy Lawson. "Summertime boundary layer winds over the Darwin–Hatherton glacial system, Antarctica: observed features and numerical analysis." Antarctic Science 22, no. 6 (December 2010): 619–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0954102010000817.
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AbstractThree temporary Automatic Weather Stations measured summertime surface layer climate over the Darwin–Hatherton Glacial system. These data were used to test a Polar optimized Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar-WRF) simulation for December as a case study. Observations show differences in hourly averaged solar and net all-wave radiation between white ice and blue ice areas (BIAs). Although the down-welling solar radiation is higher over the white ice region, the net all-wave energy is higher over the BIA. Derived albedo for each surface type confirms that the blue ice areas have lower albedo. Also, the hourly averaged temperatures are higher at lower elevation stations, creating a gradient towards the Ross Ice Shelf. Analysis shows that there is a diurnal oscillation in strength and intensity of the katabatic wind. The two lower stations register a distinct reversal of wind direction in the early afternoon due to intrusion of an anabatic circulation. Anabatic winds are not prevalent further up the Darwin Glacier. A high-resolution Polar-WRF simulation as a case study shows good agreement with observations. The December 2008 case study is characterized by a strong south-westerly katabatic wind over Hatherton, whereas the flow over Lower Darwin was diurnally reversing. Polar-WRF shows that the katabatic front advanced and retreated periodically between Hatherton and Lower Darwin.
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Vignon, Étienne, Ghislain Picard, Claudio Durán-Alarcón, Simon P. Alexander, Hubert Gallée, and Alexis Berne. "Gravity Wave Excitation during the Coastal Transition of an Extreme Katabatic Flow in Antarctica." Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 77, no. 4 (March 25, 2020): 1295–312. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-19-0264.1.
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Abstract The offshore extent of Antarctic katabatic winds exerts a strong control on the production of sea ice and the formation of polynyas. In this study, we make use of a combination of ground-based remotely sensed and meteorological measurements at Dumont d’Urville (DDU) station, satellite images, and simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model to analyze a major katabatic wind event in Adélie Land. Once well developed over the slope of the ice sheet, the katabatic flow experiences an abrupt transition near the coastal edge consisting of a sharp increase in the boundary layer depth, a sudden decrease in wind speed, and a decrease in Froude number from 3.5 to 0.3. This so-called katabatic jump manifests as a turbulent “wall” of blowing snow in which updrafts exceed 5 m s−1. The wall reaches heights of 1000 m and its horizontal extent along the coast is more than 400 km. By destabilizing the boundary layer downstream, the jump favors the trapping of a gravity wave train—with a horizontal wavelength of 10.5 km—that develops in a few hours. The trapped gravity waves exert a drag that considerably slows down the low-level outflow. Moreover, atmospheric rotors form below the first wave crests. The wind speed record measured at DDU in 2017 (58.5 m s−1) is due to the vertical advection of momentum by a rotor. A statistical analysis of observations at DDU reveals that katabatic jumps and low-level trapped gravity waves occur frequently over coastal Adélie Land. It emphasizes the important role of such phenomena in the coastal Antarctic dynamics.
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Ding, Minghu, Xiaowei Zou, Qizhen Sun, Diyi Yang, Wenqian Zhang, Lingen Bian, Changgui Lu, Ian Allison, Petra Heil, and Cunde Xiao. "The PANDA automatic weather station network between the coast and Dome A, East Antarctica." Earth System Science Data 14, no. 11 (November 15, 2022): 5019–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-5019-2022.
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Abstract. This paper introduces a unique multiyear dataset and the monitoring capability of the PANDA automatic weather station network, which includes 11 automatic weather stations (AWSs) across the Prydz Bay–Amery Ice Shelf–Dome A area from the coast to the summit of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. The ∼ 1460 km transect from Zhongshan to Panda S follows roughly along ∼ 77∘ E longitude and covers all geographic units of East Antarctica. Initial inland observations, near the coast, started in the 1996/97 austral summer. All AWSs in this network measure air temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, wind speed and wind direction at 1 h intervals, and some of them can also measure firn temperature and shortwave/longwave radiation. Data are relayed in near real time via the Argos system. The data quality is generally very reliable, and the data have been used widely. In this paper, we firstly present a detailed overview of the AWSs, including the sensor characteristics, installation procedure, data quality control protocol and the basic analysis of each variable. We then give an example of a short-term atmospheric event that shows the monitoring capacity of the PANDA AWS network. This dataset, which is publicly available, is planned to be updated on a near-real-time basis and should be valuable for climate change estimation, extreme weather events diagnosis, data assimilation, weather forecasting, etc. The dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.11888/Atmos.tpdc.272721 (Ding et al., 2022b).
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Vignon, Étienne, Olivier Traullé, and Alexis Berne. "On the fine vertical structure of the low troposphere over the coastal margins of East Antarctica." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 19, no. 7 (April 8, 2019): 4659–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4659-2019.
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Abstract. In this study, 8 years of high-resolution radiosonde data at nine Antarctic stations are analysed to provide the first large-scale characterization of the fine vertical structure of the low troposphere up to 3 km altitude over the coastal margins of East Antarctica. Radiosonde data show a large spatial variability of wind, temperature and humidity profiles, with different features between stations in katabatic regions (e.g., Dumont d'Urville and Mawson stations), stations over two ice shelves (Neumayer and Halley stations) and regions with complex orography (e.g., McMurdo). At the Dumont d'Urville, Mawson and Davis stations, the yearly median wind speed profiles exhibit a clear low-level katabatic jet. During precipitation events, the low-level flow generally remains of continental origin and its speed is even reinforced due to the increase in the continent–ocean pressure gradient. Meanwhile, the relative humidity profiles show a dry low troposphere, suggesting the occurrence of low-level sublimation of precipitation in katabatic regions but such a phenomenon does not appreciably occur over the ice shelves near Halley and Neumayer. Although ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalyses assimilate radiosoundings at most stations considered here, substantial – and sometimes large – low-level wind and humidity biases are revealed but ERA5 shows overall better performance. A free simulation with the regional polar version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF) (at a 35 km resolution) over the entire continent shows too-strong and too-shallow near-surface jets in katabatic regions especially in winter. This may be a consequence of an underestimated coastal cold air bump and associated sea–continent pressure gradient force due to the coarse 35 km resolution of the Polar WRF simulation. Beyond documenting the vertical structure of the low troposphere over coastal East Antarctica, this study gives insights into the reliability and accuracy of two major reanalysis products in this region on the Earth. The paper further underlines the difficulty of modeling the low-level flow over the margins of the ice sheet with a state-of-the-art atmospheric model.
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Singh, Rajkumar Kamaljit, Khoisnam Nanaoba Singh, Mamata Maisnam, Jayaprasad P., and Saroj Maity. "Antarctic Sea Ice Extent from ISRO’s SCATSAT-1 Using PCA and An Unsupervised Classification." Proceedings 2, no. 7 (March 22, 2018): 340. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ecrs-2-05153.
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Indian Space Research Organisation’s SCATSAT-1 is a continuity mission for Oceansat-2 Scatterometer. The sensor works in a Ku-band (13.515 GHz) similar to the one flown on-board Oceansat-2. It provides backscattering coefficient over the globe and wind vector data products over the oceans that are useful for weather forecasting, cyclone detection, and tracking services. Besides backscattering coefficient (sigma nought), two other important parameters, namely, Gamma nought (obtained from backscattering coefficient) and Brightness temperature (obtained from scatterometer noise measurement) are given as the Level-4 data products archived at the ISRO’s Meteorological & Oceanographic Satellite Data Archival Centre. We used these three parameters both in horizontal and vertical polarizations for the Antarctic region (South Polar) to perform, first, a principal component analysis. Then, we used the first three principal components explaining the largest variability in the data set to perform an unsupervised ISODATA clustering classification to estimate the regions of sea ice around Antarctica. The derived sea ice extent through this method is compared with other popular sea ice extent products available elsewhere.
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Mihalikova, M., and S. Kirkwood. "Tropopause fold occurrence rates over the Antarctic station Troll (72° S, 2.5° E)." Annales Geophysicae 31, no. 4 (April 4, 2013): 591–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/angeo-31-591-2013.
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Abstract. One of the important mechanisms of stratosphere–troposphere exchange, which brings ozone-rich stratospheric air to low altitudes in extratropical regions, is transport related to tropopause folds. The climatology of folds has been studied at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere with the help of radars and global models. Global models supply information about fold occurrence rates at high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere as well, but so far comparisons with direct measurements are rare. The Moveable Atmospheric Radar for Antarctica (MARA), a 54.5 MHz wind-profiler radar, has been operated at the Norwegian year-round station Troll, Antarctica (72° S, 2.5° E) since December 2011. Frequent tropopause fold signatures have been observed. In this study, based on MARA observations, an occurrence rate statistics of tropopause folds from December 2011 until November 2012 has been made, and radar data have been compared with the analysis from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). The fold occurrence rates exhibit an annual cycle with winter maximum and summer minimum and suggest significantly higher occurrence rates for the given location than those obtained previously by global model studies.
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Tastula, Esa-Matti, and Timo Vihma. "WRF Model Experiments on the Antarctic Atmosphere in Winter." Monthly Weather Review 139, no. 4 (April 1, 2011): 1279–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010mwr3478.1.
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Abstract The standard and polar versions 3.1.1 of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, both initialized by the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40), were run in Antarctica for July 1998. Four different boundary layer–surface layer–radiation scheme combinations were used in the standard WRF. The model results were validated against observations of the 2-m temperature, surface pressure, and 10-m wind speed at 9 coastal and 2 inland stations. The best choice for boundary layer and radiation parameterizations of the standard WRF turned out to be the Yonsei University boundary layer scheme in conjunction with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) surface layer scheme and the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for longwave radiation. The respective temperature bias was on the order of 3°C less than the biases obtained with the other combinations. Increasing the minimum value for eddy diffusivity did, however, improve the performance of the asymmetric convective scheme by 0.8°C. Averaged over the 11 stations, the error growths in 24-h forecasts were almost identical for the standard and Polar WRF, but in 9-day forecasts Polar WRF gave a smaller 2-m temperature bias. For the Vostok station, however, the standard WRF gave a less positively biased 24-h temperature forecast. On average, the polar version gave the least biased surface pressure simulation. The wind speed simulation was characterized by low correlation values, especially under weak winds and for stations surrounded by complex topography.
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Yang, Qike, Xiaoqing Wu, Zhiyuan Wang, Xiaodan Hu, Yiming Guo, and Chun Qing. "Simulating the night-time astronomical seeing at Dome A using Polar WRF." Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 515, no. 2 (July 22, 2022): 1788–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stac1930.
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ABSTRACT In Antarctica, excellent astronomical observing conditions have been measured at Dome A during night-time (or polar winter). This study investigates the performance of the Polar-optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (Polar WRF, PWRF hereafter) for simulating the night-time astronomical seeing at Dome A. The seeing values were estimated by a seeing model, which used the PWRF-simulated wind speed and temperature as inputs. Furthermore, three methods to obtain the boundary layer height in the seeing model have been examined. The estimated seeing agrees well with 50-d measurements from the KunLun Differential Image Motion Monitor at Dome A during the night-time of 2019; the correlation coefficients range from 0.62 to 0.71. The PWRF-simulated meteorological parameters indicate that low wind speed and strong temperature inversion (when a large gradient Richardson number always occurs) near the ground can lead to good seeing condition. The results suggest that the PWRF model could be a reliable tool for scheduling observational astronomy at Dome A during night-time.
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Wille, Jonathan D., David H. Bromwich, John J. Cassano, Melissa A. Nigro, Marian E. Mateling, and Matthew A. Lazzara. "Evaluation of the AMPS Boundary Layer Simulations on the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, with Unmanned Aircraft Observations." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 56, no. 8 (August 2017): 2239–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-16-0339.1.
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AbstractAccurately predicting moisture and stability in the Antarctic planetary boundary layer (PBL) is essential for low-cloud forecasts, especially when Antarctic forecasters often use relative humidity as a proxy for cloud cover. These forecasters typically rely on the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) Polar Weather Research and Forecasting (Polar WRF) Model for high-resolution forecasts. To complement the PBL observations from the 30-m Alexander Tall Tower! (ATT) on the Ross Ice Shelf as discussed in a recent paper by Wille and coworkers, a field campaign was conducted at the ATT site from 13 to 26 January 2014 using Small Unmanned Meteorological Observer (SUMO) aerial systems to collect PBL data. The 3-km-resolution AMPS forecast output is combined with the global European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis (ERAI), SUMO flights, and ATT data to describe atmospheric conditions on the Ross Ice Shelf. The SUMO comparison showed that AMPS had an average 2–3 m s−1 high wind speed bias from the near surface to 600 m, which led to excessive mechanical mixing and reduced stability in the PBL. As discussed in previous Polar WRF studies, the Mellor–Yamada–Janjić PBL scheme is likely responsible for the high wind speed bias. The SUMO comparison also showed a near-surface 10–15-percentage-point dry relative humidity bias in AMPS that increased to a 25–30-percentage-point deficit from 200 to 400 m above the surface. A large dry bias at these critical heights for aircraft operations implies poor AMPS low-cloud forecasts. The ERAI showed that the katabatic flow from the Transantarctic Mountains is unrealistically dry in AMPS.
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SHARMA, A. K. "Applications of satellite imageries for prediction of severe weather events along Maitri, Antarctica." MAUSAM 62, no. 4 (December 16, 2021): 617–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v62i4.379.
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The present paper is an attempt to educate the weather forecaster at Indian Scientific research Station, Maitri, Antarctica in forecasting severe weather (blizzards) using satellite images of various satellites operating in the world. The Polar stationary satellite ‘Trianna’ has been discussed .The availability of the various types of images has also been spelt. The characteristics of satellite images has been described along with overlaying of Automatic Weather station (AWS) data explaining the occurrence of Katabatic winds which also causes blizzards. Blizzard conditions often develop on the northwest side of an intense storm system the difference between the lower pressure in the storm and the higher pressure to the west creates a tight pressure gradient, which in turn results in very strong winds or blizzards. The paper also discusses about the development that took place in Antarctic satellite meteorology since beginning.
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Bromwich, David H., Andrew J. Monaghan, Kevin W. Manning, and Jordan G. Powers. "Real-Time Forecasting for the Antarctic: An Evaluation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS)*." Monthly Weather Review 133, no. 3 (March 1, 2005): 579–603. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-2881.1.
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Abstract In response to the need for improved weather prediction capabilities in support of the U.S. Antarctic Program’s field operations, the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) was implemented in October 2000. AMPS employs the Polar MM5, a version of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model optimized for use over ice sheets. The modeling system consists of several domains ranging in horizontal resolution from 90 km covering a large part of the Southern Hemisphere to 3.3 km over the complex terrain surrounding McMurdo, the hub of U.S. operations. The performance of the 30-km AMPS domain versus observations from manned and automatic weather stations is statistically evaluated for a 2-yr period from September 2001 through August 2003. The simulated 12–36-h surface pressure and near-surface temperature at most sites have correlations of r > 0.95 and r > 0.75, respectively, and small biases. Surface wind speeds reflect the complex topography and generally have correlations between 0.5 and 0.6, and positive biases of 1–2 m s−1. In the free atmosphere, r > 0.95 (geopotential height), r > 0.9 (temperature), and r > 0.8 (wind speed) at most sites. Over the annual cycle, there is little interseasonal variation in skill. Over the length of the forecast, a gradual decrease in skill is observed from hours 0–72. One exception is the surface pressure, which improves slightly in the first few hours, due in part to the model adjusting from surface pressure biases that are caused by the initialization technique over the high, cold terrain. The impact of the higher-resolution model domains over the McMurdo region is also evaluated. It is shown that the 3.3-km domain is more sensitive to spatial and temporal changes in the winds than the 10-km domain, which represents an overall improvement in forecast skill, especially on the windward side of the island where the Williams Field and Pegasus runways are situated, and in the lee of Ross Island, an important area of mesoscale cyclogenesis (although the correlation coefficients in these regions are still relatively low).
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Dinniman, Michael S., John M. Klinck, Le-Sheng Bai, David H. Bromwich, Keith M. Hines, and David M. Holland. "The Effect of Atmospheric Forcing Resolution on Delivery of Ocean Heat to the Antarctic Floating Ice Shelves*,+." Journal of Climate 28, no. 15 (July 30, 2015): 6067–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00374.1.
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Abstract Oceanic melting at the base of the floating Antarctic ice shelves is now thought to be a more significant cause of mass loss for the Antarctic ice sheet than iceberg calving. In this study, a 10-km horizontal-resolution circum-Antarctic ocean–sea ice–ice shelf model [based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)] is used to study the delivery of ocean heat to the base of the ice shelves. The atmospheric forcing comes from the ERA-Interim reanalysis (~80-km resolution) and from simulations using the polar-optimized Weather Research and Forecasting Model (30-km resolution), where the upper atmosphere was relaxed to the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The modeled total basal ice shelf melt is low compared to observational estimates but increases by 14% with the higher-resolution winds and just 3% with both the higher-resolution winds and atmospheric surface temperatures. The higher-resolution winds lead to more heat being delivered to the ice shelf cavities from the adjacent ocean and an increase in the efficiency of heat transfer between the water and the ice. The higher-resolution winds also lead to changes in the heat delivered from the open ocean to the continental shelves as well as changes in the heat lost to the atmosphere over the shelves, and the sign of these changes varies regionally. Addition of the higher-resolution temperatures to the winds results in lowering, primarily during summer, the wind-driven increase in heat advected into the ice shelf cavities due to colder summer air temperatures near the coast.
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Pishniak, D., and B. Beznoshchenko. "Improving the detailing of atmospheric processes modelling using the Polar WRF model: a case study of a heavy rainfall event at the Akademik Vernadsky station." Ukrainian Antarctic Journal, no. 2 (December 2020): 26–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.33275/1727-7485.2.2020.650.
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The Antarctic Peninsula region is of growing interest due to the regional climate change features and related atmospheric circulation patterns. The regional mesoscale atmospheric model Polar Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) v4.1.1 was used in this research to study a heavy precipitation event over the Ukrainian Antarctic Akademik Vernadsky station region (Antarctic Peninsula). The passage of the cyclone over the Antarctic Peninsula as a typical synoptic process as well as a case of the daily precipitation maximum amount of 2018 were chosen for investigation in this research. The estimation of the modelling quality and downscaling was done by comparing the obtained results with in-situ observation at the Akademik Vernadsky station and cross-domain tracking of average meteorological values and their deviation. The concept of the nested domains allowed to increase the horizontal resolution of the simulated atmosphere up to 1 km and to reproduce the wind regime of this region with high quality. Comparison with measured data showed a significant improvement in wind simulation with increasing of resolution, but worse representation of surface temperature and humidity. The Polar WRF made a general cooling of near surface temperature of 2 °C during the period of simulation and increased precipitation amount by 4.6–8.4 mm (12–21%) on average over the territory relative to the initial data from Global Data Assimilation System. This can be explained by the contribution of noise and imperfection of the model (including static input data of the terrain description). Based on the modelled results, the interaction of wind flow with the mountainous terrain of the Antarctic Peninsula creates a range of complex dynamic effects in the atmosphere. These effects cause local precipitation maxima both over the Peninsula and over the adjacent ocean. These are, respectively, bay-valley areas of increased precipitation and increased precipitation on the crests of shock waves from orographic obstacles. Under certain background wind conditions, the influence of the latter effect can reach the Akademik Vernadsky station and cause the formation of heavy precipitation here.
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Matějka, Michael, Kamil Láska, Klára Jeklová, and Jiří Hošek. "High-Resolution Numerical Modelling of Near-Surface Atmospheric Fields in the Complex Terrain of James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula." Atmosphere 12, no. 3 (March 9, 2021): 360. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos12030360.
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The Antarctic Peninsula belongs to the regions of the Earth that have seen the highest increase in air temperature in the past few decades. The warming is reflected in degradation of the cryospheric system. The impact of climate variability and interactions between the atmosphere and the cryosphere can be studied using numerical atmospheric models. In this study, the standard version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was validated on James Ross Island in the northern part of the Antarctic Peninsula. The aim of this study was to verify the WRF model output at 700 m horizontal resolution using air temperature, wind speed and wind direction observations from automatic weather stations on the Ulu Peninsula, the northernmost part of James Ross Island. Validation was carried out for two contrasting periods (summer and winter) in 2019/2020 to assess possible seasonal effects on model accuracy. Simulated air temperatures were in very good agreement with measurements (mean bias −1.7 °C to 1.4 °C). The exception was a strong air temperature inversion during two of the winter days when a significant positive bias occurred at the coastal and lower-altitude locations on the Ulu Peninsula. Further analysis of the WRF estimates showed a good skill in simulating near-surface wind speed with higher correlation coefficients in winter (0.81–0.93) than in summer (0.41–0.59). However, bias and RMSE for wind speed tended to be better in summer. The performance of three WRF boundary layer schemes (MYJ, MYNN, QNSE) was further evaluated. The QNSE scheme was generally more accurate than MYNN and MYJ, but the differences were quite small and varied with time and place. The MYNN and QNSE schemes tended to achieve better wind speed simulation quality than the MYJ scheme. The model successfully captured wind direction, showing only slight differences to the observed values. It was shown that at lower altitudes the performance of the model can vary greatly with time. The model results were more accurate during high wind speed southwestern flow, while the accuracy decreased under weak synoptic-scale forcing, accompanied by an occurrence of mesoscale atmospheric processes.
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Fonseca, Ricardo, Javier Martín-Torres, and Kent Andersson. "Wind Forecasts for Rocket and Balloon Launches at the Esrange Space Center Using the WRF Model." Weather and Forecasting 33, no. 3 (June 1, 2018): 813–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-18-0031.1.
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Abstract High-altitude balloons and rockets are regularly launched at the Esrange Space Center (ESC) in Kiruna, Sweden, with the aim of retrieving atmospheric data for meteorological and space studies in the Arctic region. Meteorological conditions, particularly wind direction and speed, play a critical role in the decision of whether to go ahead with or postpone a planned launch. Given the lack of high-resolution wind forecasts for this remote region, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is used to downscale short-term forecasts given by the Global Forecast System (GFS) for the ESC for six 5-day periods in the warm, cold, and transition seasons. Three planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes are considered: the local Mellor–Yamada–Janjić (MYJ), the nonlocal Yonsei University (YSU), and the hybrid local–nonlocal Asymmetric Convective Model 2 (ACM2). The ACM2 scheme is found to provide the most skillful forecasts. An analysis of the WRF Model output against the launch criteria for two of the most commonly launched vehicles, the sounding rockets Veículo de Sondagem Booster-30 (VSB-30) and Improved Orion, reveals probability of detection (POD) values that always exceeds 60% with the false alarm rate (FAR) generally below 50%. It is concluded that the WRF Model, in its present configuration, can be used to generate useful 5-day wind forecasts for the launches of these two rockets. The conclusions reached here are applicable to similar sites in the Arctic and Antarctic regions.
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Matějka, Michael, and Kamil Láska. "Impact of the selected boundary layer schemes and enhanced horizontal resolution on the Weather Research and Forecasting model performance on James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula." Czech Polar Reports 12, no. 1 (September 5, 2022): 15–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.5817/cpr2022-1-2.
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The output of the various Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model configurations was compared with ground-based observations in the northern part of James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula. In this region, a network of automatic weather stations deployed at ice-free sites (as well as small glaciers) is operated by the Czech Antarctic Research Programme. Data from these stations provide a unique opportunity to evaluate the WRF model in a complex terrain of James Ross Island. The model was forced by the ERA5 reanalysis data and the University of Bremen sea ice data. The model configurations include a novel Three-Dimensional Scale-Adaptive Turbulent Kinetic Energy (3D TKE) planetary boundary layer scheme and a more traditional Quasi-Normal Scale Elimination (QNSE) scheme. Impact of model horizontal resolution was evaluated by running simulations in both 700 m and 300 m. The validation period, 25 May 2019 to 12 June 2019, was selected to cover different stratification regimes of air temperature and a significant snowfall event. Air temperature was simulated well except for strong low-level inversions. These inversions occurred in 44% of all cases and contributed to a higher mean bias (2.0–2.9°C) at low-elevation sites than at high altitude sites (0.2–0.6°C). The selection of the 3D TKE scheme led to improvement at low-elevation sites; at high altitude sites, the differences between model configurations were rather small. The best performance in wind speed simulation was achieved with the combination of the 3D TKE scheme and 300 m model resolution. The most important improvement was decrease of bias at a coastal Mendel Station from 3.5 m·s‑1 with the QNSE scheme on the 700 m grid to 1.2 m·s‑1 with the 3D TKE scheme on the 300 m grid. The WRF model was also proven to simulate a large snowfall event with a good correspondence with the observed snow height.
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Tastula, Esa-Matti, Timo Vihma, and Edgar L. Andreas. "Evaluation of Polar WRF from Modeling the Atmospheric Boundary Layer over Antarctic Sea Ice in Autumn and Winter." Monthly Weather Review 140, no. 12 (December 1, 2012): 3919–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-12-00016.1.
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Abstract Regional simulations of the atmospheric boundary layer over Antarctic sea ice that have been adequately validated are rare. To address this gap, the authors use the doubly nested Polar Weather Research and Forecasting (Polar WRF) mesoscale model to simulate conditions during Ice Station Weddell (ISW) in the austral autumn and winter of 1992. The WRF simulations test two boundary layer schemes: Mellor–Yamada–Janjic and the Asymmetric Convective Model. Validation is against surface-layer and sounding observations from ISW. Simulated latent and sensible heat fluxes for both boundary layer schemes had poor correlation with the observed fluxes. Simulated surface temperature had better correlation with the observations, with a typical bias of 0–2 K and a root-mean-square error of 6–7 K. For surface temperature and wind speed, the Polar WRF yielded better results than the ECMWF Re-Analysis Interim (ERA-Interim). A more challenging test of the simulations is to reproduce features of the low-level jet and the temperature inversion, which were observed, respectively, in 80% and 96% of the ISW radiosoundings. Both boundary layer schemes produce only about half as many jets as were observed. Moreover, the simulated jet coincided with an observed jet only about 30% of the time. The number of temperature inversions and the height at the inversion base were better reproduced, although this was not the case with the depth of the inversion layer. Simulations of the temperature inversion improved when forecasts of cloud fraction agreed to within 0.3 with observations. The modeled inversions were strongest when the incoming longwave radiation was smallest, but this relationship was not observed at ISW.
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Wright, Corwin J., Neil P. Hindley, Lars Hoffmann, M. Joan Alexander, and Nicholas J. Mitchell. "Exploring gravity wave characteristics in 3-D using a novel S-transform technique: AIRS/Aqua measurements over the Southern Andes and Drake Passage." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 17, no. 13 (July 13, 2017): 8553–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8553-2017.
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Abstract. Gravity waves (GWs) transport momentum and energy in the atmosphere, exerting a profound influence on the global circulation. Accurately measuring them is thus vital both for understanding the atmosphere and for developing the next generation of weather forecasting and climate prediction models. However, it has proven very difficult to measure the full set of GW parameters from satellite measurements, which are the only suitable observations with global coverage. This is particularly critical at latitudes close to 60° S, where climate models significantly under-represent wave momentum fluxes. Here, we present a novel fully 3-D method for detecting and characterising GWs in the stratosphere. This method is based around a 3-D Stockwell transform, and can be applied retrospectively to existing observed data. This is the first scientific use of this spectral analysis technique. We apply our method to high-resolution 3-D atmospheric temperature data from AIRS/Aqua over the altitude range 20–60 km. Our method allows us to determine a wide range of parameters for each wave detected. These include amplitude, propagation direction, horizontal/vertical wavelength, height/direction-resolved momentum fluxes (MFs), and phase and group velocity vectors. The latter three have not previously been measured from an individual satellite instrument. We demonstrate this method over the region around the Southern Andes and Antarctic Peninsula, the largest known sources of GW MFs near the 60° S belt. Our analyses reveal the presence of strongly intermittent highly directionally focused GWs with very high momentum fluxes (∼ 80–100 mPa or more at 30 km altitude). These waves are closely associated with the mountains rather than the open ocean of the Drake Passage. Measured fluxes are directed orthogonal to both mountain ranges, consistent with an orographic source mechanism, and are largest in winter. Further, our measurements of wave group velocity vectors show clear observational evidence that these waves are strongly focused into the polar night wind jet, and thus may contribute significantly to the missing momentum at these latitudes. These results demonstrate the capabilities of our new method, which provides a powerful tool for delivering the observations required for the next generation of weather and climate models.
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Zhang, Oscar Y. W., Kelvin T. F. Chan, Lifeng Xu, and Zhenzhen Wu. "Statistical Seasonal Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Landfall on South China Utilizing Preseason Predictors." Frontiers in Earth Science 9 (January 10, 2022). http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.806204.
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Predicting tropical cyclone (TC) activities has been a topic of great interest and research. Many existing seasonal forecasting models of TC predict the numbers of TC geneses and landfalls based on the environmental factors in the peak TC season. Here, we utilize the mainstream reanalysis datasets in 1979–2005 and propose a statistical seasonal forecasting model, namely the SYSU model, for predicting the number of TC landfalls on South China based on the preseason environmental factors. The multiple linear regression analysis shows that the April sea level pressure over the tropical central Pacific, the March-April mean sea surface temperature southwest to Australia, the March 850-hPa zonal wind east to Japan, and the April 500-hPa zonal wind over Bay of Bengal are the significant predictors. The model is validated by the leave-one-out cross validation and recent 15-year observations (2006–2020). The correlation coefficient between the modeled results and observations reaches 0.87 (p < 0.01). The SYSU model exhibits 90% hit rate (38 out of 42) in 1979–2020. The Antarctic Oscillation, and the variations of the western North Pacific subtropical high and Intertropical Convergence Zone could be the possible physical linkages or mechanisms. The model demonstrates an operational potential in the seasonal forecasting of TC landfall on South China.