Academic literature on the topic 'Weather Effect of mountains on Mathematical models'

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Journal articles on the topic "Weather Effect of mountains on Mathematical models"

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Lindner, André, Francois Jost, Mariana Vidal Merino, Natalia Reategui, and Jürgen Pretzsch. "Aligning Socio-economic Field Laboratories and Agent Based Models assessing local climate change adaptation measures of Andean farmers." Journal of Forest and Landscape Research 2, no. 1 (March 31, 2017): 7–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.13141/jflr.v2i1.77.

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The increase in extreme weather events is a major consequence of climate change in tropical mountain rangeslike the Andes of Peru. The impact on farming households is of growing interest since adaptation and mitigation strategies are required to keep race with environmental conditions and to prevent people from increasing poverty. In this regard it becomes more and more obvious that a bottom-up approach incorporating the local socioeconomic processes and their interplay is needed. Socio-economic field laboratories are used to understand such processes on site. This integrates multi-disciplinary and participatory analyses of production and its relationship with biophysical and socio-economic determinants. Farmers react individually based on their experiences, financial situation, labor conditions, or attitude among others. In this regard socio-economic field laboratories also serve to develop and test scenarios about development paths, which involve the combination of both, local and scientific knowledge. For a comprehensive understanding of the multitude of interactions the agent-based modeling framework MPMAS (Mathematical Programming-based Multi-Agent System) is applied. In combination with continued ground-truthing, the model is used to gain insights into the functioning of the complex social system and to forecast its development in the near future. The assessment of the effect of humans’ behavior in changing environmental conditions including the comparison of different sites, transforms the model to a communication tool bridging the gap between adaptation policies and local realities.
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Gentilucci, Matteo, and Gilberto Pambianchi. "Prediction of Snowmelt Days Using Binary Logistic Regression in the Umbria-Marche Apennines (Central Italy)." Water 14, no. 9 (May 6, 2022): 1495. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w14091495.

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Snow cover in a mountain area is a physical parameter that induces quite rapid changes in the landscape, from a geomorphological point of view. In particular, snowmelt plays a crucial role in the assessment of avalanche risk, so it is essential to know the days when snowmelt is expected, in order to prepare operational alert levels. Moreover, melting of the snow cover has a direct effect on the recharge of the water table, as well as on the regulation of the vegetative cycle of mountain plants. Therefore, a study on snowmelt, its persistence on the ground, and the height of the snow cover in the Umbria-Marche Apennines in central Italy is of great interest, since this is an area that is extremely poorly sampled and analysed. This study was conducted on the basis of four mountain weather stations equipped with a recently installed sonar-based snow depth gauge, so that a relatively short period, 2010–2020, was evaluated. A trend analysis revealed non-significant decreases in snow cover height and snow persistence time, in contrast to the significant increasing trend of mean temperature, while parameters such as relative humidity and wind speed did not appear to have a dominant trend. Further analysis showed relationships between snowmelt and the climatic parameters considered, leading to the definition of a mathematical model developed using the binary logistic regression technique, and having a predictive power of 82.6% in the case of days with snowmelt on the ground. The aim of this study was to be a first step towards models aimed at preventing avalanche risk, hydrological risk, and plant species adaptation, as well as providing a more complete definition of the climate of the study area.
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Huggel, C., N. Salzmann, S. Allen, J. Caplan-Auerbach, L. Fischer, W. Haeberli, C. Larsen, D. Schneider, and R. Wessels. "Recent and future warm extreme events and high-mountain slope stability." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 368, no. 1919 (May 28, 2010): 2435–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0078.

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The number of large slope failures in some high-mountain regions such as the European Alps has increased during the past two to three decades. There is concern that recent climate change is driving this increase in slope failures, thus possibly further exacerbating the hazard in the future. Although the effects of a gradual temperature rise on glaciers and permafrost have been extensively studied, the impacts of short-term, unusually warm temperature increases on slope stability in high mountains remain largely unexplored. We describe several large slope failures in rock and ice in recent years in Alaska, New Zealand and the European Alps, and analyse weather patterns in the days and weeks before the failures. Although we did not find one general temperature pattern, all the failures were preceded by unusually warm periods; some happened immediately after temperatures suddenly dropped to freezing. We assessed the frequency of warm extremes in the future by analysing eight regional climate models from the recently completed European Union programme ENSEMBLES for the central Swiss Alps. The models show an increase in the higher frequency of high-temperature events for the period 2001–2050 compared with a 1951–2000 reference period. Warm events lasting 5, 10 and 30 days are projected to increase by about 1.5–4 times by 2050 and in some models by up to 10 times. Warm extremes can trigger large landslides in temperature-sensitive high mountains by enhancing the production of water by melt of snow and ice, and by rapid thaw. Although these processes reduce slope strength, they must be considered within the local geological, glaciological and topographic context of a slope.
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BISWAS, B. C. "Forecasting for agricultural application." MAUSAM 41, no. 2 (February 22, 2022): 188–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v41i2.2630.

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Methods for agro-meteorological forecasts are mainly based on crop-weather relationship and statistical/mathematical models. Models developed from historic data make it possible to obtain the expected values fairly in advance so that appropriate action may be taken to avail of beneficial aspect of weather and minimise or avoid detrimental effect. Validity of these models under different conditions is imperative as the climatic conditions of general field may be quite different from those of experimental one. This paper discusses the work done on the above aspects.
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Bradstock, R. A., J. S. Cohn, A. M. Gill, M. Bedward, and C. Lucas. "Prediction of the probability of large fires in the Sydney region of south-eastern Australia using fire weather." International Journal of Wildland Fire 18, no. 8 (2009): 932. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/wf08133.

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The probability of large-fire (≥1000 ha) ignition days, in the Sydney region, was examined using historical records. Relative influences of the ambient and drought components of the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) on large fire ignition probability were explored using Bayesian logistic regression. The preferred models for two areas (Blue Mountains and Central Coast) were composed of the sum of FFDI (Drought Factor, DF = 1) (ambient component) and DF as predictors. Both drought and ambient weather positively affected the chance of large fire ignitions, with large fires more probable on the Central Coast than in the Blue Mountains. The preferred, additive combination of drought and ambient weather had a marked threshold effect on large-fire ignition and total area burned in both localities. This may be due to a landscape-scale increase in the connectivity of available fuel at high values of the index. Higher probability of large fires on the Central Coast may be due to more subdued terrain or higher population density and ignitions. Climate scenarios for 2050 yielded predictions of a 20–84% increase in potential large-fire ignitions days, using the preferred model.
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Förster, K., G. Meon, T. Marke, and U. Strasser. "Effect of meteorological forcing and snow model complexity on hydrological simulations in the Sieber catchment (Harz Mountains, Germany)." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 18, no. 11 (November 28, 2014): 4703–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4703-2014.

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Abstract. Detailed physically based snow models using energy balance approaches are spatially and temporally transferable and hence regarded as particularly suited for scenario applications including changing climate or land use. However, these snow models place high demands on meteorological input data at the model scale. Besides precipitation and temperature, time series of humidity, wind speed, and radiation have to be provided. In many catchments these time series are rarely available or provided by a few meteorological stations only. This study analyzes the effect of improved meteorological input on the results of four snow models with different complexity for the Sieber catchment (44.4 km2) in the Harz Mountains, Germany. The Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) is applied to derive spatial and temporal fields of meteorological surface variables at hourly temporal resolution for a regular grid of 1.1 km × 1.1 km. All snow models are evaluated at the point and the catchment scale. For catchment-scale simulations, all snow models were integrated into the hydrological modeling system PANTA RHEI. The model results achieved with a simple temperature-index model using observed precipitation and temperature time series as input are compared to those achieved with WRF input. Due to a mismatch between modeled and observed precipitation, the observed melt runoff as provided by a snow lysimeter and the observed streamflow are better reproduced by application of observed meteorological input data. In total, precipitation is simulated statistically reasonably at the seasonal scale but some single precipitation events are not captured by the WRF data set. Regarding the model efficiencies achieved for all simulations using WRF data, energy balance approaches generally perform similarly compared to the temperature-index approach and partially outperform the latter.
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Briz-Redón, Álvaro, and Ángel Serrano-Aroca. "The effect of climate on the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic: A review of findings, and statistical and modelling techniques." Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment 44, no. 5 (August 4, 2020): 591–604. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0309133320946302.

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The new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has spread rapidly around the world since it was first reported in humans in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 after being contracted from a zoonotic source. This new virus produces the so-called coronavirus 2019 or COVID-19. Although several studies have supported the epidemiological hypothesis that weather patterns may affect the survival and spread of droplet-mediated viral diseases, the most recent have concluded that summer weather may offer partial or no relief of the COVID-19 pandemic to some regions of the world. Some of these studies have considered only meteorological variables, while others have included non-meteorological factors. The statistical and modelling techniques considered in this research line have included correlation analyses, generalized linear models, generalized additive models, differential equations, or spatio-temporal models, among others. In this paper we provide a systematic review of the recent literature on the effects of climate on COVID-19’s global expansion. The review focuses on both the findings and the statistical and modelling techniques used. The disparate findings reported seem to indicate that the estimated impact of hot weather on the transmission risk is not large enough to control the pandemic, although the wide range of statistical and modelling approaches considered may have partly contributed to the inconsistency of the findings. In this regard, we highlight the importance of being aware of the limitations of the different mathematical approaches, the influence of choosing geographical units and the need to analyse COVID-19 data with great caution. The review seems to indicate that governments should remain vigilant and maintain the restrictions in force against the pandemic rather than assume that warm weather and ultraviolet exposure will naturally reduce COVID-19 transmission.
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SHAPOVALOV, Vitaly A., Aida A. ADZHIEVA, Lyudmila M. FEDCHENKO, and Egor A. KOVALEV. "Mathematical Modeling of Formation of Transparency Regions in Supercooled Stratiform Clouds and Fogs." Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism 9, no. 1 (June 19, 2018): 17. http://dx.doi.org/10.14505//jemt.v9.1(25).03.

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We developed models of active influence on clouds using crystallization reagents to ensure transparency of the atmosphere. Numerical modeling of various versions of influence on stratiform clouds at aviation seeding was performed. Variation of characteristics of supercooled fogs when bringing man-made crystals was studied. The determination of reagents application rates, estimating impact effect and some other issues were solved using the results of modelling of clouds evolution (both natural and under active influence). Based on generalization of the results of numerical simulation of cloud evolution, the proposals for improvement of cloud seeding technology under different weather conditions are developed.
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Abbas, Ehsan F., and Jawdat A. Yaqub. "The Effect of using Insulation on the Energy Saving in Building." Tikrit Journal of Engineering Sciences 17, no. 3 (September 30, 2010): 25–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.25130/tjes.17.3.10.

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The aim of the present study is to analyze the thermal performance of a building which is of 600 m3 size. The building is built in three different models. In the first model, walls are built with brick. In the second model, a layer of foam (Polystyrene) of 4 cm thickness has been used as an insulation layer inside walls and on the roof. In the third model, walls are constructed from two parts separated by air gap of 8 cm wide; moreover a secondary roof is added to this model. A Qbasic program is prepared to simulate the required mathematical equations in finite difference method and the weather conditions data of Baghdad city at January, 1994. The results of the simulation showed that the ratio of the saved energy by the second and third models with respect to the first model are 29.96%, and 35.40% respectively.
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Plăiaşu, Rodica, Arpat Ozgul, Benedikt R. Schmidt, and Raluca I. Băncilă. "Estimation of apparent survival probability of the harvestman Paranemastoma sillii sillii (Herman, 1871) from two caves." Animal Biology 67, no. 2 (2017): 165–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/15707563-00002529.

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Reliable estimates of population parameters are lacking for most cave-dwelling species. This lack of knowledge may hinder the appropriate management of caves and populations of cave-dwelling species. Using monthly capture-recapture data and Cormack-Jolly-Seber models, we (i) estimated the apparent survival of individuals in two cave populations of the harvestman Paranemastoma sillii sillii (Herman, 1871) from the Mehedinti Mountains in south-western Romania; (ii) investigated temporal variation in apparent survival; (iii) tested if surface weather conditions affect apparent survival of cave-dwelling harvestmen through their influence upon cave environmental conditions and (iv) tested for sex differences in apparent survival. Our results show that the apparent monthly survival estimates were high for both studied cave populations and there was a significant sex effect on survival. Males had lower survival than females, and the survival difference between caves was larger in males than in females. Temporal (i.e., monthly) variation in apparent survival was low and the weather conditions at the surface had little influence on apparent survival as the environment inside the caves is well buffered against weather fluctuations outside the caves. Our results indicate that caves stabilize survival of facultative cave-dwelling species and may serve as microrefugia for epigean species. We suggest that caves should be considered for conservation because they may serve as a refuge for some epigean species during harsh weather conditions.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Weather Effect of mountains on Mathematical models"

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Robichaud, Alain 1956. "On the modeling of orographic rain using the seeder-feeder mechanism." Thesis, McGill University, 1986. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=66081.

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Ziauddin, Abutaher Md. "Simulation of weather effect minimization investment : an application to grain drying system design and management in a developing region." Thesis, 1985. http://hdl.handle.net/10125/9208.

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Books on the topic "Weather Effect of mountains on Mathematical models"

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Dutta, Somenath. A dynamical model to parameterize rainfall due to meso scale three dimensional orographic barrier. Dhaka: SAARC Meteorological Research Centre, 2007.

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Office, General Accounting. Air pollution: Air quality and respiratory problems in and near the Great Smoky Mountains : briefing report to Congressional requesters. Washington, D.C: The Office, 2001.

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On step mountain eta model. Pune: [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology], 1999.

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Klaus-Georg, Keuler, and Kerkmann Jochen, eds. Simulation orographisch beeinflusster Fronten mit einem Front-Skala Modell. Bonn: Dümmler, 1990.

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A study of the effect of synoptic scale processes in GCM modelling: Final technical report. [Greenbelt, Md.]: National Aeronautics and Space Administration [Goddard Space Flight Center, 1990.

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Center, Goddard Space Flight, ed. A study of the effect of synoptic scale processes in GCM modelling: Final technical report. [Greenbelt, Md.]: National Aeronautics and Space Administration [Goddard Space Flight Center, 1990.

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Conference papers on the topic "Weather Effect of mountains on Mathematical models"

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Fumo, Nelson, Daniel C. Lackey, and Sara McCaslin. "Analysis of Autoregressive Energy Models of a Research House." In ASME 2015 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece2015-50630.

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Energy consumption from buildings is a major component of the overall energy consumption by end-use sectors in industrialized countries. In the United States of America (USA), the residential sector alone accounts for half of the combined residential and commercial energy consumption. Therefore, efforts toward energy consumption modeling based on statistical and engineering models are in continuous development. Statistical approaches need measured data but not buildings characteristics; engineering approaches need building characteristics but not data, at least when a calibrated model is the goal. Among the statistical models, the linear regression analysis has shown promising results because of its reasonable accuracy and relatively simple implementation when compared to other methods. In addition, when observed or measured data is available, statistical models are a good option to avoid the burden associated with engineering approaches. However, the dynamic behavior of buildings suggests that models accounting for dynamic effects may lead to more effective regression models, which is not possible with standard linear regression analysis. Utilizing lag variables is one method of autoregression that can model the dynamic behavior of energy consumption. The purpose of using lag variables is to account for the thermal energy stored/release from the mass of the building, which affects the response of HVAC equipment to changes in outdoor or weather parameters. In this study, energy consumption and outdoor temperature data from a research house are used to develop autoregressive models of energy consumption during the cooling season with lag variables to account for the dynamics of the house. Models with no lag variable, one lag variable, and two lag variables are compared. To investigate the effect of the time interval on the quality of the models, data intervals of 5 minutes, 15 minutes, and one hour are used to generate the models. The 5 minutes time interval is used because that is the resolution of the acquired data; the 15 minutes time interval is used because it is a common time interval in electric smart meters; and one hour time interval is used because it is the common time interval for energy simulation in buildings. The primary results shows that the use of lag variables greatly improves the accuracy of the models, but a time interval of 5 minutes is too small to avoid the dependence of the energy consumption on operating parameters. All mathematical models and their quality parameters are presented, along with supporting graphical representation as a visual aid to comparing models.
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