Academic literature on the topic 'Wage competition'

This article, situated at the interface of competition policy and labor economics literatures, examines the relationship between new competitor entry and its impact on changes in the employment levels and wage levels of incumbent telecommunications firms. The context for examining the issue is the local exchange carriers’ territories within the US. In markets with above-average competitive entry by new firms there has been a significant response by incumbent firms in increasing employment levels by 11% relative to industry average values, and wage levels have risen by 11.8% relative to average levels. In modern technologically-dynamic sectors, characterized by network effects, the impact of deregulation, competition policy changes and market entry on changes in employment and wage levels in the incumbent firms have been positive. The idea as to whether across-the-board competition leads to job losses or impacts wages negatively in incumbent firms requires re-assessment and the data suggest that promoting entry can be a powerful policy option to generate useful economic outcomes.

The thesis itself proceeds according to the following outline. Chapter One is concerned with the neoclassical theory of the labour market. Three particular models are surveyed all of which attempt to explain wage differentials and labour adjustments within a competitive equilibrium framework. The basic model of the labour market which rests upon the marginal productivity theory of labour demand, the utility-maximising approach to labour supply and the competitive theory of market equilibrium is dealt with first.This is followed by an outline of human capital theory which emphasises the crucial role played by education and training in determining individual earnings . Finally, attention is focused on disequilibrium wage models of adjustment which account for wage dispersion in terms of the amount and quality of information available to transactors in the labour market.(Introduction, p. 3-4)

In a simple oligopsonistic model, firms compete for labour through wages and job qualities. We modify the product market model developed by Vandenbosch/Weinberg 1995 and apply it to the job market with jobs being defined by two vertically differentiated non-wage characteristics. Workers differ in their valuation of these two characteristics but do not differ in their productivity. In equilibrium firms offer different wages and differ in only one of these non-wage characteristics. Whereas our labour market model is based on firms, we apply subclasses according to the UK SIC(2003) in our empirical analysis. When comparing subclasses within selected sectors (WERS) we found evidence that firms compete in both wages and job qualities. (author´s abstract)
Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Existing theoretical literature fails to explain satisfactorily the differences between the pay of workers that are covered by collective agreements and others who are not. This study aims at providing a model framework which is amenable for an analysis of this issue. Our general-equilibrium approach integrates a dual labor market and a two-sector product market. The results suggest that the so-called 'union wage gap' is largely determined by the degree of centralization of the bargains, and, to a somewhat lesser extent, by the expenditure share of the unionized sector's goods.

Ma thèse intitulée “Gouvernance d'entreprise et concurrence sur le marché des produits” est composée de trois chapitres théoriques relevant essentiellement de l'Économie Industrielle. L'objectif principal est d'étudier comment le marché des produits interagit à la fois avec l'intérêt des parties prenantes lorsque l'information est parfaite et avec les incitations managériales (statiques et dynamiques) lorsque l'information est imparfaite.Le premier chapitre porte sur les interactions entre le mode de concurrence sur le marché des produits (Cournot vs. Bertrand) et les relations (conflictuelles ou conciliantes) entre les principaux acteurs (actionnaires, consommateurs et employés) lorsque l'intérêt des consommateurs est pris en compte dans la fonction objectif de la firme. Nous considérons un duopole symétrique où les firmes négocient préalablement avec les syndicats sur le salaire versé aux employés et puis se concurrencent entre elles sur le marché des biens. Nous montrons que l'orientation client (mesurée par le degré de prise en compte du surplus des consommateurs) peut inverser la hiérarchie traditionnelle entre les équilibres de Cournot et les équilibres de Bertrand. Une concurrence en prix (par rapport à une concurrence en quantité) est à même d'atténuer les conflits entre les actionnaires et les consommateurs et entre les actionnaires et les employés.Le deuxième chapitre examine comment les incitations managériales pourraient interagir avec la concurrence sur le marché des produits dans un contexte de sélection adverse et d'aléa moral. Nous considérons un oligopole de Cournot composé de n firmes identiques dont le coût marginal initial est une information privée du manager. L'effort du manager, qui est non observable, réduit indirectement le coût marginal initial. Dans un tel contexte, nous montrons qu'à l'optimum les paiements incitatifs versés aux managers ne sont pas nécessairement influencés par la concurrence sur le marché des produits.Le troisième chapitre étudie comment le contrat optimal entre l'actionnaire et le manager (résolution d'aléa moral répété) peut influencer la stabilité d'un cartel. Nous considérons un cartel composé de deux firmes identiques et dans chaque firme un actionnaire neutre à l'égard du risque offre un menu de contrats à un manager averse au risque. L'effort du manager influence le coût marginal de la firme (comme au chapitre 2) à chaque période. Nous montrons que, contrairement au cas où l'information est parfaite, le degré d'aversion au risque du manager n'impacte pas la stabilité du cartel lorsque le contrat optimal à long terme est mis en place. Le contrat optimal résout le problème d'aléa moral répété et limite également le pouvoir discrétionnaire du manager sur la décision de conduite du marché (collusion, déviation, ou compétition)
My thesis entitled « Corporate governance and product market competition : three essays » is a theoretical research in industrial organization. The primary objective is to investigate how product market (competition or collusion) interacts with the top-level design of corporate governance, which concerns specifically the stakeholders' relationships and managerial incentives (static and dynamic) under imperfect information. It is mainly based on three chapters dealing with different subtopics of this theme.The first chapter examines how social concern and product market competition (Cournot vs. Bertrand) may influence the relationships (conflicting or conciliating) between main stakeholders (shareholders, consumers and employees). We consider two identical firms, both taking care of the interests of consumers in their objective functions and allowing their employees' wages be negotiated with labor unions. We show that social concern may reverse the traditional ranking between Cournot and Bertrand equilibria. Our model also shows that price competition (compared to quantity competition) can to some extent attenuate the shareholders' conflicts with both consumers and employees.The second chapter investigates how managerial incentive payment under both adverse selection and moral hazard might interact with product market competition. We consider a Cournot oligopoly market consisting of n identical managerial firms, of which the initial marginal cost is the manager's private information and his unobservable effort indirectly reduces the initial level of marginal cost. We show with this setting that the optimal incentive payment solving informational problems is not necessarily influenced by product market competition.The third chapter studies how the optimal contract between shareholder and manager (solving repeated moral hazard) may influence the stability of a cartel. We consider a cartel consisting of two identical firms, within each a risk neutral shareholder offers a menu of contracts to a risk-averse manager who may shirk in each period. The manager's unobservable effort influences the firm's marginal cost (as in chapter 2). We show in contrary with the benchmark case (under perfect information) that the degree of risk-aversion plays no longer a role upon the stability of collusion: when the managerial compensation is independent of gross profit, the implementation of the optimal long-term contract solves repeated moral hazard but also constrains the manager's discretion over the decision of market conduct (collusion, deviation, or competition)

Cette thèse étudie les effets de mobilité des capitaux sur les politiques publiques dans une situation de sous-emploi. Nous traitons cette question selon trois axes. D'abord, nous introduisons le chômage dans le cadre d'analyse usuel de la concurrence fiscale afin d'étudier l'effet de mobilité du capital sur l'offre de biens publics pour établir que le résultat classique de sous-provision de biens publics est remis en question dès qu'on lève l'hypothèse de plein emploi. Nous menons ensuite une étude de la politique du salaire minimum sous la contrainte de mobilité des capitaux lorsque son rôle est de corriger la répartition des revenus. Nous montrons que la mobilité du capital conduit à la fixation d'un salaire minimum trop faible lorsque les Gouvernements ne sont pas capables de coopération. Enfin, nous analysons dans un troisième axe, l'effet de la mobilité des capitaux sur les politiques publiques en terme d'efficacité lorsque le marché du travail est soumis à des friction. A cet effet, nous utilisons un modèle d'appariement où le stock du capital est exogène. Deux résultats principaux émergent. Le premier résultat montre que le salaire minimum est un moyen d'améliorer l'efficacité du marché du travail en économie fermée; le second est que la mobilité du capital n'affecte pas l'efficacité de la politique du salaire minimum (ainsi conçue) en économie ouverte
This thesis studies the influence of capital mobility on public policies in an imperfect labor market. We present three contributions to provide some insights on this issue. Firstly, we introduce unemployment into the capital tax competition literature to study the effect of capital mobility on the provision of public goods. Our analysis shows that the usual result of underprovision of public goods is not always preserved in the presence of unemployment. We then investigate the minimum wage policy under the constraint of capital mobility when its role is to adjust the distribution of incomes. We find that, in a non-cooperative context, capital mobility would constrain governments to set lower minimum wages.Finally, we study the influence of capital mobility on the efficiency of labor market policies when governments cannot cooperate. Using a search-matching model with an exogenous stock of capital, we find that implementing a minimum wage can make the decentralized equilibrium coincide with a social optimum in a closed economy. Next we extend the analysis to an n-country economy, the most surprising result being that capital mobility does not affect the efficiency of public policy

This thesis aims to provide evidence on the relations between productivity, industrial structure, and labour markets for countries with different characteristics from 1965 to 1999. In order to do so, we first examine manufacturing industry production and trade with respect to both technology orientation and intensity, the impact of structural change on productivity growth, and the existence of convergence in industrial structures. Second, this study investigates the impact of labour market and industrial structures on aggregate productivity in manufacturing. While descriptive analysis of manufacturing industry with regard to technological orientation and intensity shows changing industrial structures in favour of relatively more technology intensive production and exports especially in fast growing countries, decomposition analysis suggests that the impact of structural change on productivity growth is negligible for most of the countries. The factor analysis revealed that although a general structural convergence tendency among countries is not observed, fast growing countries have converged their industrial structure towards those of industrialised countries. Finally, econometric estimation results also showed that while wage flexibility is detrimental to productivity in manufacturing, regulations in labour markets may foster productivity growth.

In a model with a unionised immobile labour force we analyse how labour taxes and transfers towards unemployed workers are optimally chosen when a welfare maximising government faces oligopolistic and partly mobile firms. We consider two polar types of government: one whose objective consists of aximising the sum of domestic producer's and consumers' surplus and one that aims at maximising employed and unemployed workers' payoffs. We show that depending on the combination of foreign labour costs, the degree of domestic union bargaining power, and the sunk costs of relocation, the former type of government may choose to set taxes so as to induce an outward relocation of production. (author's abstract)
Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

In the face of global competition there is a great danger for countries with high labor costs (e.g. Germany) to lose more and more production plants to low-wage countries. Almost inevitably there will be a relocation of after-sales services as well as of research and development. Eventually this will cause a significant decline of wealth. For this reason especially high-wage countries are always striving for higher productivity of production processes. On the other hand the products have to be of high-end quality to ensure an advantage in the market. Thus there is an obvious dilemma between planning-orientation and value-orientation which has to be resolved. This could possibly be obtained by shifting planning efforts to the runtime system and at the same time enabling the system to adapt to changing requests and circumstances. In order to get there, automation technology is definitely playing a key role in present-day highly automated production processes. Unfortunately classical automation technology has not been supporting this kind of self-organizing, self-controlling and self-optimizing behavior. This paper introduces an approach to make production systems more “intelligent” based on the idea of a cognitive control architecture. At first the motivation and the research vision are introduced followed by an outline of the research approach. As a concrete example of an application a robot based assembly cell is described. The methods used and insights gained so far are presented in the second part, followed by an outlook towards future activities.

One of the current challenges for the developed countries is to establish and maintain a commercial and competitive advantage without the benefit of a low wage economy and in the face of increasingly stiff competition from such economies. Business analysts and regional development agencies find it easy to imagine the role of university staff and students in creating GDP from knowledge and technology but the challenge of entrepreneurship is often unimagined by faculty and students alike. How might the opportunities of new, knowledge-based business be brought more coherently to the attention of engineering faculty and students? Maybe one way is to begin the discussion by using engineering concepts familiar to the students and to develop an enterprise strand through the undergraduate curriculum. This paper provides some ideas of how the challenge might be accepted. Technology transfer, broadly understood to be the creation of new products, new processes and new companies from the research findings in universities, is well-established in principle but relatively few faculty are actively engaged in it. The demand is evident: few, if any, companies have the resources to carry out all the research and development necessary to generate the technology that they need for their products and processes. This paper considers how technology transfer might be characterised by an engineering approach and by analogy to well-established heat transfer processes. This engineering approach is developed further to consider the factors relevant to graduate entrepreneurship. The argument is put forward that the appropriate analogy can be drawn from combustion science and space exploration: the challenge is to identify barriers to 'ignition' and drivers of 'escape velocity'. The factors are reviewed and assessed in the light of feedback from students involved in business start ups. The conclusion is that not only might the engineering analogies be a useful way to introduce entrepreneurial issues to engineering students, but also that the analogies allow analysis that might indicate how improvements may be made to the support activity for student start-ups.

Abstract Over the past two years, a wave energy converter control systems competition (WECCCOMP) has been in progress, with the objective of comparing different wave energy converter (WEC) control paradigms on a standard benchmark problem. The target system is a point absorber, corresponding to a single float with an absolute reference, of the WaveStar WEC prototype. The system was modelled in WEC-Sim, with the hydrodynamic parameters validated against tank test data. Competitors were asked to design and implement a WEC control system for this model, with performance evaluated across six sea states. The evaluation criteria included a weighted combination of average converted power, peak/average power, and the degree to which the system physical constraints were exploited or temporarily exceeded. This paper provides an overview of the competition, which includes a comparative evaluation of the entries and their performance on the simulation model. It is intended that this paper will act as an anchor presentation in a special session on WECCCOMP at OMAE 2019, with other papers in the special session contributed by the competitors, describing in detail the control algorithms and the results achieved over the various sea states.

We develop and estimate a model of child care markets that endogenizes both demand and supply. On the demand side, families with a child make consumption, labor supply, and child-care decisions within a static, unitary household model. On the supply side, child care providers make entry, price, and quality decisions under monopolistic competition. Child development is a function of the time spent with each parent and at the child care center; these inputs vary in their impact. We estimate the structural parameters of the model using the 2003 Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, which contains information on parental employment and wages, child care choices, child development, and center quality. We use our estimates to evaluate the impact of several policies, including vouchers, cash transfers, quality regulations, and public provision. Among these, a combination of quality regulation and vouchers for working families leads to the greatest gains in average child development and to a large expansion in child care use and female labor supply, all at a relatively low fiscal cost.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.