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1
Nakada, Setsuya, Yousuke Miyagi, Tomohiro Kubo, and Eisuke Fujita. "Conveying Volcano Information Effectively to Stakeholders – A New Project for Promotion of Next Generation Volcano Research." Journal of Disaster Research 14, no. 4 (June 1, 2019): 623–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2019.p0623.
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A new program for the Next Generation Volcano Research and Human Resource Development started in 2016, following the government’s analysis of a volcanic disaster at Mount Ontake in 2014. One of its important purposes is the development of a technology that can provide visualized information of imminent volcanic hazards to the stakeholders. The latter include researchers in the Volcano Disaster Prevention Councils. Since the volcanic activity in Japan has been relatively less in the past few hundred years, larger eruptions are certainly expected to occur in the near future. Volcanic risk management has developed in Japan independently of university or institutional research, and by a national law, researchers are not allowed to officially forecast imminent volcanic eruptions. In the case of large eruptions never being observed, a close communication between the Japan Meteorological Agency and researchers becomes very important. Our project goal is issuing effective information on real-time observational and hazard mitigation simulation data to the stakeholders and researchers. Based on our inspection and interviews we develop information tools using which the above data are provided effectively and the dissemination and education of volcanic disasters are performed.
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Nakamura, Yoichi, Kazuyoshi Fukushima, Xinghai Jin, Motoo Ukawa Teruko Sato, and Yayoi Hotta. "Mitigation Systems by Hazard Maps, Mitigation Plans, and Risk Analyses Regarding Volcanic Disasters in Japan." Journal of Disaster Research 3, no. 4 (August 1, 2008): 297–304. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2008.p0297.
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More than 60 volcanic hazard maps have been published on 38 of Japan’s 108 active volcanoes. Two maps were published before 1990, 17 after the 1991 eruptions of Unzen, and 19 after the 2000 eruptions of Usuzan and Miyakejima. Large eruptions greatly increase concern over volcanic hazards. The earlier academic maps themselves have changed from being specialist-oriented to being designed to be more easily understood with volcanic terms clearly explained. This is especially true of revised maps. The 1961 Disaster Countermeasures Basic Act directs that local disaster management plans be promoted by local governments, but only 5 of the local governments in the 25 prefectures neighboring on active volcanoes have set up established specific volcano-oriented antidisaster programs. Others mention volcanic disaster measures in the context of general or storm and flood disaster measures, and another six make no mention of particular measures for volcanic disasters. This lack of concern is somewhat understandably related to budget policies, but real-time hazard maps with probability tree algorithms for forecasting volcanic events are needed to manage potential volcanic disasters effectively. For this purpose, volcanic disaster measures with volcanic risk, or threat analyses assessments must be completed, but no local governments have yet conducted assessments of volcanic risk analyses. Whatever and however complex the reasons, local governments should, cooperating with volcanologists and supported by local residents, take action before an eruption next occurs.
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Ohba, Tsukasa. "Case study and event analysis for mitigation of unpredictable volcanic hazard." Impact 2020, no. 3 (May 13, 2020): 26–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.21820/23987073.2020.3.26.
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Volcanology is an extremely important scientific discipline. Shedding light on how and why volcanoes erupt, how eruptions can be predicted and their impact on humans and the environment is crucial to public safety, economies and businesses. Understanding volcanoes means eruptions can be anticipated and at-risk communities can be forewarned, enabling them to implement mitigation measures. Professor Tsukasa Ohba is a scientist based at the Graduate School of International Resource Studies, Akita University, Japan, and specialises in volcanology and petrology. Ohba and his team are focusing on volcanic phenomena including: phreatic eruptions (a steam-driven eruption driven by the heat from magma interacting with water); lahar (volcanic mudflow); and monogenetic basalt eruptions (which consist of a group of small monogenetic volcanoes, each of which erupts only once). The researchers are working to understand the mechanisms of these phenomena using Petrology. Petrology is one of the traditional methods in volcanology but has not been applied to disastrous eruptions before. The teams research will contribute to volcanic hazard mitigation.
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Ohba, Tsukasa, Shintaro Hayashi, Masao Ban, Takumi Imura, Yusuke Minami, and Masahiro Endo. "Late Holocene Tephrostratigraphy at Chokai Volcano, Northern Japan, and Contribution to Hazard Assessment." Journal of Disaster Research 17, no. 5 (August 1, 2022): 724–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2022.p0724.
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History and pattern of explosive eruptions at Chokai volcano, Japan, in the last 2500 years were investigated from tephra survey and accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon dating. The tephrostratigraphy was established based on observations at eight hand-dug trenches and three outcrops. The well-correlated tephra layers were dated at c. 2.5 ka, 2.1–1.9 ka, 1.8 ka, and 1.6 ka, indicating major eruptions occurred at these ages. The tephra from the documented 871 CE eruption was also identified. Componentry analysis of ash was carried out for these five eruption deposits. The changes in tephra facies and ash components within an unbroken series of tephra layers indicate a shift from hydrothermal-dominant phreatic or phreatomagmatic eruption to magma-dominant eruptions in a single episode. Common eruption sequences were identified based on the combination of tephra facies variation and records of witnessed eruptions. Every volcanic activity begins with precursory activity of seismicity, fumaroles, and snow melting for weeks to months, then onset hydrothermal-dominant eruption happens. Then, the eruption evolves to a magma-dominant eruption, or alternatively, the hydrothermal-dominant eruption persistently continues until cessation. The eruption sizes are VEI 2 or more minor. Lahar can occur at any stage of the eruption, resulting in damage to the residential area at the base of the volcano. The eruption patterns and the extent of hazard risks elucidated by this study will be utilized to hazard mitigation plans.
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Cigna, Francesca, Deodato Tapete, and Zhong Lu. "Remote Sensing of Volcanic Processes and Risk." Remote Sensing 12, no. 16 (August 10, 2020): 2567. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs12162567.
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Remote sensing data and methods are increasingly being embedded into assessments of volcanic processes and risk. This happens thanks to their capability to provide a spectrum of observation and measurement opportunities to accurately sense the dynamics, magnitude, frequency, and impacts of volcanic activity in the ultraviolet (UV), visible (VIS), infrared (IR), and microwave domains. Launched in mid-2018, the Special Issue “Remote Sensing of Volcanic Processes and Risk” of Remote Sensing gathers 19 research papers on the use of satellite, aerial, and ground-based remote sensing to detect thermal features and anomalies, investigate lava and pyroclastic flows, predict the flow path of lahars, measure gas emissions and plumes, and estimate ground deformation. The strong multi-disciplinary character of the approaches employed for volcano monitoring and the combination of a variety of sensor types, platforms, and methods that come out from the papers testify the current scientific and technology trends toward multi-data and multi-sensor monitoring solutions. The research advances presented in the published papers are achieved thanks to a wealth of data including but not limited to the following: thermal IR from satellite missions (e.g., MODIS, VIIRS, AVHRR, Landsat-8, Sentinel-2, ASTER, TET-1) and ground-based stations (e.g., FLIR cameras); digital elevation/surface models from airborne sensors (e.g., Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR), or 3D laser scans) and satellite imagery (e.g., tri-stereo Pléiades, SPOT-6/7, PlanetScope); airborne hyperspectral surveys; geophysics (e.g., ground-penetrating radar, electromagnetic induction, magnetic survey); ground-based acoustic infrasound; ground-based scanning UV spectrometers; and ground-based and satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imaging (e.g., TerraSAR-X, Sentinel-1, Radarsat-2). Data processing approaches and methods include change detection, offset tracking, Interferometric SAR (InSAR), photogrammetry, hotspots and anomalies detection, neural networks, numerical modeling, inversion modeling, wavelet transforms, and image segmentation. Some authors also share codes for automated data analysis and demonstrate methods for post-processing standard products that are made available for end users, and which are expected to stimulate the research community to exploit them in other volcanological application contexts. The geographic breath is global, with case studies in Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Guatemala, Mexico, Hawai’i, Alaska, Kamchatka, Japan, Indonesia, Vanuatu, Réunion Island, Ethiopia, Canary Islands, Greece, Italy, and Iceland. The added value of the published research lies on the demonstration of the benefits that these remote sensing technologies have brought to knowledge of volcanoes that pose risk to local communities; back-analysis and critical revision of recent volcanic eruptions and unrest periods; and improvement of modeling and prediction methods. Therefore, this Special Issue provides not only a collection of forefront research in remote sensing applied to volcanology, but also a selection of case studies proving the societal impact that this scientific discipline can potentially generate on volcanic hazard and risk management.
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Pérez-Guillén, Cristina, Kae Tsunematsu, Kouichi Nishimura, and Dieter Issler. "Seismic location and tracking of snow avalanches and slush flows on Mt. Fuji, Japan." Earth Surface Dynamics 7, no. 4 (October 25, 2019): 989–1007. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-989-2019.
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Abstract. Avalanches are often released at the dormant stratovolcano Mt. Fuji, which is the highest mountain of Japan (3776 m a.s.l.). These avalanches exhibit different flow types from dry-snow avalanches in winter to slush flows triggered by heavy rainfall in late winter to early spring. Avalanches from different flanks represent a major natural hazard as they can reach large dimensions with run-out distances up to 4 km, destroy parts of the forest, and sometimes damage infrastructure. To monitor the volcanic activity of Mt. Fuji, a permanent and dense seismic network is installed around the volcano. The small distance between the seismic sensors and the volcano flank (<10 km) allowed us to detect numerous avalanche events from the seismic recordings and locate them in time and space. We present the detailed analysis of three avalanche or slush flow periods in the winters of 2014, 2016, and 2018. The largest events (size class 4–5) are detected by the seismic network at maximum distances of about 15 km, and medium-size events (size class 3–4) within a radius of 9 km. To localize the seismic events, we used the automated approach of amplitude source location (ASL) based on the decay of the seismic amplitudes with distance from the moving flow. The recorded amplitudes at each station have to be corrected by the site amplification factors, which are estimated by the coda method using data from local earthquakes. Our results show the feasibility of tracking the flow path of avalanches and slush flows with considerable precision (on the order of magnitude of 100 m) and thus estimating information such as the approximate run-out distance and the average front speed of the flows, which are usually poorly known. To estimate the precision of the seismic tracking, we analyzed aerial photos of the release area and determined the flow path and run-out distance, estimated the release volume from the meteorological records, and conducted numerical simulations with Titan2D to reconstruct the dynamics of the flow. The precision as a function of time is deduced from the comparison with the numerical simulations, showing mean location errors ranging between 85 and 271 m. The average front speeds estimated seismically, which ranged from 27 to 51 m s−1, are consistent with the numerically predicted speeds. In addition, we deduced two scaling relationships based on seismic parameters to quantify the size of the mass flow events. Our results are indispensable for assessing avalanche risk in the Mt. Fuji region as seismic records are often the only available dataset for this natural hazard. The approach presented here could be applied in the development of an early-detection and location system for avalanches based on seismic sensors.
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Inoue, Hiroshi, Renato U. Solidum, and Jr. "Special Issue on Enhancement of Earthquake and Volcano Monitoring and Effective Utilization of Disaster Mitigation Information in the Philippines." Journal of Disaster Research 10, no. 1 (February 1, 2015): 5–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2015.p0005.
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This special issue of JDR features 18 papers and reports on an international 2010 to 2015 cooperative project entitled gEnhancement of Earthquake and Volcano Monitoring and Effective Utilization of Disaster Mitigation Information in the Philippines.h This project is being conducted under the SATREPS program (Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development), cosponsored by the JST (Japan Science and Technology Agency) and JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency). The Philippines is one of the worldfs most earthquake and volcano disaster-prone countries because it is located along the active boundary between the Philippine Sea Plate and Eurasian Plate. Collisions by the two plates generate plate subductions and crustal stress that generates earthquakes and volcanic activities on the archipelago. The Philippines has experienced numerous disastrous earthquakes, the most recent being the 1990 M7.8 Luzon earthquake, which killed over 1,000 local residents. A damaging earthquake also occurred during this 5-year project, in October 2013, on Bohol Island, causing about 200 deaths when houses and other buildings collapsed. Volcanoes are another major killer in the Philippines. The largest in the last century was when the Taal volcano erupted in 1911, killing 1,300 by a base surge. The 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption is known as the largest volcanic event in the 20th century. The Mayon volcano is also known to be a beautiful but dangerous volcano that frequently erupts, causing lahars ? steaming moving fluid masses of volcanic debris and water ? that damaged villages at the foot of the mountain. The PHIVOLCS (Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology), a governmental agency mandated to monitor earthquakes and volcanoes, provides earthquake and volcano information and alerts to the public. It also conducts research on the mechanisms behind such natural phenomena and on evaluating such hazards and risks. The PHIVOLCSfs other mission is educating people and society on being prepared for disasters. Earthquake and volcano bulletins and alerts, research output, and educational materials and training provided by PHIVOLCS have enriched knowledge and enhanced measures against disaster. The primary target of this SATREPS project is to enhance existing monitoring networks, whose equipment has been provided by Japanese ODA (Official Development Aid). Through the SATREPS project, we have introduced the latest technology to provide the public with more accurate information more quickly. This project also promotes research for deepening the understanding of earthquakes and volcano activities in better assessing hazard and risk. Project components, tasks, and main Japanese organizations are as follows: 1) Earthquake and tsunami monitoring, NIED 1-1) Advanced real-time earthquake source information, Nagoya University 1-2) Real-time seismic intensity network, NIED 1-3) Tsunami monitoring and forecasting, NIED, JMA 2) Evaluation of earthquake generation potential, Kyoto University 2-1) Campaign and continuous GPS observation, Kyoto University, GSI 2-2) Geological and geomorphological studies of earthquake faults, Kyoto University 3) Integrated real-time monitoring of the Taal and Mayon volcanoes, Nagoya University 3-1) Seismic and infrasonic observation, Nagoya University 3-2) Continuous GPS monitoring, Kyoto University 3-3) Electromagnetic monitoring, Tokai University 4) Provision of disaster mitigation information and promotion of utilization, NIED 4-1) Simple seismic diagnosis, NIED 4-2) Tsunami victims interview manga (comic book form) and DVD, NIED 4-3) Disaster information portal site, NIED <span style="font-size: xx-small;">*NIED: National Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention; JMA: Japan Meteorological Agency; GSI: Geospatial Information Authority of Japan</span> This issuefs first article by Melosantos et al., reports on results of installing a broadband seismometer network to provide seismic data used in the next two articles. Papers by Bonita and Punongbayan detail the results of SWIFT, a new earthquake source analysis system that automatically determines the location, size, and source mechanisms of moderate to large earthquakes. The report by Inoue et al. describes the development of the first instrumental intensity network system in the Philippines, followed by a report on its deployment and observation by Lasala et al. The article by Igarashi et al. describes the development of a tsunami simulation database for a local tsunami warning system in the Philippines. The next five papers represent the 2) Earthquake Generation Potential project component. Ohkura et al. detail the results of campaign GPS observations on Mindanao Island, which first delineated the detailed plate movement and internal deformation of Mindanao. Tobita et al. report the results of the first continuous GPS observations across the Philippine Fault. The next three papers describe the results of geological and geomorphological studies of the Philippine Fault on Mindanao Island by Perez et al., the 1973 Ragay Gulf Earthquake by Tsutsumi, and submarine mapping of the Philippine Fault by Yasuda et al.. These results provide insights on the recurrence and sizes of large damaging earthquakes in different areas. An electromagnetic study of the Taal volcano reported by Alanis et al. and the GPS monitoring of the Mayon volcano detailed by Takagi et al. are a part of intensive studies of these two volcanoes. Scientific research results were published in advance in other international journals by the research group concerning 3) Integrated Real-Time Volcano Monitoring of the Taal and Mayon Volcanoes. Real-time information on these volcanoes are telemetered to Manila and checked regularly as a part of standard operational procedures. Real-time earthquake and tsunami information by 1) Earthquake and Tsunami Monitoring has already been implemented in the monitoring system. The last five papers and reports cover results for 4) Provision of Disaster Mitigation Information and Promotion of Utilization. Imai et al. report on a full-scale shaking table test of typical residential Philippines houses made of hollow concrete blocks. They demonstrate the importance of following building codes. A paper by Imai et al. introduces simple seismic diagnosis for masonry houses as a practical tool for raising peoplefs awareness of housing vulnerability to earthquakes. Salcedo et al. report a dissemination strategy for the practical tools. The last two papers, by Villegas, report on video interviews made with Philippino tsunami survivors in the Tohoku area following the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. The results are compiled and selected stories published in comic-book form as easy-to-understand educational materials on tsunami disaster awareness. Information on earthquakes and volcanoes provided by the enhanced monitoring system, research output, and educational materials obtained through the SATREPS project are provided to stakeholders to enhance measures against disasters at various levels and in different timeframes. Readers of this special issue can reference information through a newly established SATREPS project portal site, the PHIVOLCS Disaster Information Portal, at <a href="http://satreps.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/">http://satreps.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/</a>. It can also be accessed from the PHIVOLCS web page at <a href="http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/">http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/</a>. Finally, I extend my sincere thanks to all authors and reviewers involved in this special issue.
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Hayashi, Haruo, and Ryohei Misumi. "Special Issue on NIED Frontier Research on Science and Technology for Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience 2020." Journal of Disaster Research 15, no. 6 (October 1, 2020): 675. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2020.p0675.
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We are very pleased to publish the Special Issue on NIED Frontier Research on Science and Technology for Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience 2020. There are nine papers in this issue. The first two papers concern hazard and risk information systems: Sano et al. constructed a real-time risk information map for flood and landslide disasters, and Hirashima et al. created an alert system for snow removal from rooftops. These systems are already in use on the NIED website. The next three papers are case studies of recent storm disasters in Japan and the United States: Cui et al. analyzed the time variation in the distribution of damage reports in the headquarters for heavy-rainfall disaster control in Fukuoka, Shakti et al. studied flood disasters caused by Typhoon Hagibis (2019), and Iizuka and Sakai conducted a meteorological analysis of Hurricane Harvey (2017). Regarding volcanic disasters, Tanada and Nakamura reported the results of an electromagnetic survey of Mt. Nasudake. This special issue also includes three papers on large-scale model experimentation: Danjo and Ishizawa studied the rainfall infiltration process using NIED’s Large-Scale Rainfall Simulator, Kawamata and Nakazawa conducted experiments concerning liquefaction, and Nakazawa et al. reported the results of experiments on seismic retrofits for road embankments. The experiments used E-Defense, the world’s largest three-dimensional shaking table. We hope this issue will provide useful information for all readers studying natural disasters.
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Widodo, Edi, and H. Hastuti. "Local Wisdom in Responding to Disaster of Merapi Eruption: Case Study of Wonolelo Village." Geosfera Indonesia 4, no. 3 (November 25, 2019): 264. http://dx.doi.org/10.19184/geosi.v4i3.14066.
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The people who live in the Merapi area have been going on for years. Merapi is the most active volcano in Central Java that can threaten the community, but the community still exists today, of course, having local wisdom in responding to the eruption of Merapi. This study aims to determine the local wisdom of Wonolelo Village before, during, and after the Merapi eruption. In addition, to find out the historical relationship of the Merapi eruption to local wisdom and the challenges faced by Wonolelo Village in maintaining the sustainability of local wisdom. This research was used as a descriptive qualitative method. The method of collecting data is done through observation, in-depth interviews, and documentation. Data sources of this study are community leaders, spiritual leaders, and people who are more than 70 years old. Analysis of the data used is sourced triangulation based on the Miles & Huberman model. The results showed that local wisdom in responding to the Merapi eruption in Wonolelo Village still exists today. Local wisdom is divided into three segments, namely before, during, and after the eruption of Merapi. Local wisdom before the Merapi eruption is a notification that Merapi eruption activity will occur. Local wisdom in Wonolelo Village has challenges in the form of modernization and not running the local wisdom relay to young people.
Keywords: Disaster, Local wisdom, Merapi volcano.
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Kuri, Miwa, and Anawat Suppasri. "Perceptions of Volcanic Hazard-Related Information Relevant to Volcano Tourism Areas in Japan." Journal of Disaster Research 13, no. 6 (November 1, 2018): 1082–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2018.p1082.
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Perceptions of volcanic hazard-related information relevant to volcano tourism areas in Japan were investigated using an Internet questionnaire survey. This study focused on the possibilities of tourism activities as a method of disseminating disaster information not only to residents but also to visitors. We evaluated the effects of educational programs (EP) including recreational activities at geopark, for the purpose of further enhancing information content and establishment of cooperation system. The survey focused on the roles and perspectives of residents, the tourism industry, scientists, and the government in volcanic disaster mitigation, as well as the dissemination of volcanic information with regard to daily activities and the actions to be taken in the event of an emergency. Hazard perceptions tended to be actuate in areas where knowledge dissemination activities were active, but this did not lead to evacuation awareness. Evacuation awareness was correlated with disaster awareness, specifically regarding the degree of interest in a volcano, eruption frequency and style, perceptions of eruption predictability, and trust in information source. Disaster awareness correlated somewhat with eruption style and with the time elapsed science the most recent eruption. Our results showed that the perceptions of residents living near volcanoes depended on eruption frequency, their experience during previous eruptions, and local government assessments of the severity of the volcanic hazard. Despite advances in tools of social media, that is not yet to take advantage under disaster circumstances. A disaster prevention system that incorporates disaster prevention education and open lines of communication among scientists, government, media, residents, and the tourism industry is necessary to improve the disaster resilience of communities in volcanic areas.
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Poulidis, Alexandros Panagiotis, Tetsuya Takemi, and Masato Iguchi. "Experimental High-Resolution Forecasting of Volcanic Ash Hazard at Sakurajima, Japan." Journal of Disaster Research 14, no. 5 (August 1, 2019): 786–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2019.p0786.
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A high-resolution forecast methodology for the ash hazard at Sakurajima volcano, Japan, is presented. The methodology employs a combined modeling approach and utilizes eruption source parameters estimated by geophysical observations from Sakurajima, allowing for a proactive approach in forecasting. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to downscale Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast data over the area of interest. The high-resolution meteorological data are then used in FALL3D model to provide a forecast for the ash dispersal and deposition. The methodology is applied for an eruption that occurred on June 16, 2018. Disdrometer observations of ashfall are used along with ash dispersal modeling to inform the choice of the total grain size distribution (TGSD). A series of pseudo-forecast ash dispersal simulations are then carried out using the proposed methodology and estimated TGSD, initialized with meteorological forecast data released up to ∼13 hours before the eruption, with results showing surprising consistency up to ∼10 hours before the eruption. Using forecast data up to 4 hours before the eruption was seen to constrain observation to model ratios within a factor of 2–4 depending on the timing of simulation and location. A number of key future improvements for the methodology are also highlighted.
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Diva, Isra Haryati, Usqo Irwanto, Khairul Nizam, Latifa Annur, Dhanu Sekarjati, Beben Graha Putra, Yuliana Safitri, et al. "Investigation Volcanic Land Form and Mapping Landslide Potential at Mount Talang." Sumatra Journal of Disaster, Geography and Geography Education 2, no. 1 (June 5, 2018): 16. http://dx.doi.org/10.24036/sjdgge.v2i1.130.
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The survey geomorphology, it is the one apart of applied geomorphology. In case has done investigation character of geomorphological landscape of Mount Talang and mapping of landslide hazard potential. In this research has used some method, the first field observation and sampling for geomorphology character study were conducted. Second the mapping landslide hazard used method the MAFF Japan where integrating physical field data and spatial data using geographic information system. The results of this study where found some volcanic morphology, volcanic cones, upper slopes, middle slope, lower slopes, foot slope, and volcanic plain. The landslide hazard, where involving sources of observation and sampling for the study of geomorphological characters. From the research has found the landslide hazard in four zone, zone (I) land stable and low hazard potential large 9 ha, zone (II) land enough stable and middle hazard potential large 12.295 ha, zone (III) land less stable and high hazard potential large 1.118 ha, and Zone (IV) land unstable and highest hazard potential 0.1 ha. The typical of geomorphology, morphometry, and land use it has really influence to landslide potential to landslide hazard.
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Kuri, Miwa. "Recent Perceptions of Volcanic Hazard-Related Information in Japan: Expectation of Eruption Predictability and Acceptance of Uncertainty." Journal of Disaster Research 14, no. 8 (November 1, 2019): 1072–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2019.p1072.
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In this study, recent perceptions of volcanic hazard-related information in Japan were investigated through an Internet questionnaire survey administered via the Internet following the 2018 volcanic eruption at Kusatsu-Shirane. The survey was focused on the change in perceptions over the course of two years, following after a 2016 survey. Additional perceptions were investigated, such as the respondents’ perceptions of eruption predictability and acceptance of uncertainty. The results of 2018 survey indicated that interest in volcanoes led to greater disaster and evacuation awareness compared with those of the 2016 survey, excessive expectations for eruption predictability decreased from 2016 to 2018. One-half of the respondents considered active information openness from experts to be of a high priority and accepted the uncertainty of hazard information.
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Iguchi, Masato. "Message from the Winner." Journal of Disaster Research 15, no. 7 (December 1, 2020): 817. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2020.p0817.
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A volcanic eruption is a phenomenon in which ballistic bombs, lapilli, volcanic ash, lava, and gas are discharged. Volcanic ash and gas are carried by the wind, and pyroclastic flows and lava flows are carried away by the force of gravity. These cause disasters of various forms in the areas around volcanoes, sometimes far from eruptive center. Accordingly, volcanic countries, particularly Asian countries such as Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, have been the scenes of volcanic disasters. We conducted the research project “Integrated study on mitigation of multimodal disasters caused by the ejection of volcanic products” with the Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation and other institutes in Indonesia under the SATREPS project from FY2013 to 2018. The aim of the project was to advance volcanic hazard mitigation, and I served as the guest editor of “Special Issue on Integrated Study on Mitigation of Multimodal Disasters Caused by Ejection of Volcanic Products” (2016) and “Special Issue on Integrated Study on Mitigation of Multimodal Disasters Caused by Ejection of Volcanic Products: Part 2” (2019) of the Journal of Disaster Research. The articles in the Special Issues have been downloaded by many researchers. The Special Issues cover many topics related to volcanic disasters, but the main theme is how to forecast real-time volcanic hazards using data monitoring, since it is this monitoring that triggers the issuing of warnings. I have studied the volcanic activity of Sakurajima, the most active volcano in Japan, for 40 years, primarily to forecast its eruptions. Forecasting the eruptions is not as important as forecasting the hazards and risks posed by volcanic actions. Research done on the mitigation of the volcanic hazards of Sakurajima as well as Indonesian volcanoes has been enhanced by interaction. The cumulative volume of magma stored in the past 100 years indicates that Sakurajima has the potential for a large-scale eruption (VEI > 4). An eruption and its dispersal of volcanic ash in particular would cause a variety of disasters over a wide area, as described in the other issues of Journal of Disaster Research. I hope that the research results will be utilized for hazard mitigation in the event of future large-scale eruptions. The research could be advanced through collaboration with studies aimed at the enhancement of resilience and recovery.
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Kuri, Miwa, Amy Donovan, Anawat Suppasri, and Tetsuya Torayashiki. "Response of the Tourism Industry to Volcanic Hazard Information: A Case Study of the Volcanic Warning at Zao Volcano in 2015." Journal of Disaster Research 13, no. 3 (June 1, 2018): 547–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2018.p0547.
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In recent years, the role of tourism-related workers in regional volcanic disaster prevention has increased in Japan. The coexistence of tourism with disaster mitigation is important in keeping residents and visitors safe and in protecting livelihoods. This paper analyzes responses from tourists and tourism workers on their receipt of volcanic hazard information. Awareness of this hazard is developing in the tourism industry. Information of expert such as members of the JMA and volcanologists at universities and institutes were considered more reliable sources of information than others. However, a direct access to experts’ information was not considered easy. Respondents’ recognition of the past hazards of Zao Volcano and future hazard factors were almost accurate. Some tourism-related workers hoped to obtain volcanic hazard information from the experts to provide to their customers. Many respondents had excessive expectations for predicting an eruption. A few were able to accept the uncertainties associated with volcano warnings and status reports. Experts need to provide adequate explanations of scientific evidence and the associated scientific uncertainties before society can readily accept eruption warnings. Furthermore, in an emergency, it is necessary to make available accurate information from specialized agencies and experts, and promptly provide them to tourism companies.
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Liu, Weiqiang, Long Li, Longqian Chen, Mingxin Wen, Jia Wang, Lina Yuan, Yunqiang Liu, and Han Li. "Testing a Comprehensive Volcanic Risk Assessment of Tenerife by Volcanic Hazard Simulations and Social Vulnerability Analysis." ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 9, no. 4 (April 22, 2020): 273. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijgi9040273.
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Volcanic activity remains highly detrimental to populations, property and activities in the range of its products. In order to reduce the impact of volcanic processes and products, it is critically important to conduct comprehensive volcanic risk assessments on volcanically active areas. This study tests a volcanic risk assessment methodology based on numerical simulations of volcanic hazards and quantitative analysis of social vulnerability in the Spanish island of Tenerife, a well-known tourist destination. We first simulated the most likely volcanic hazards in the two eruptive scenarios using the Volcanic Risk Information System (VORIS) tool and then evaluated the vulnerability using a total of 19 socio-economic indicators within the Vulnerability Scoping Diagram (VSD) framework by combining the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the entropy method. Our results show good agreement with previous assessments. In two eruptive scenarios, the north and northwest of the island were more exposed to volcanic hazards, and the east registered the highest vulnerability. Overall, the northern municipalities showed the highest volcanic risk in two scenarios. Our test indicates that disaster risk varies greatly across the island, and that risk reduction strategies should be prioritized on the north areas. While refinements to the model will produce more accurate results, the outputs will still be beneficial to the local authorities when designing policies for volcanic risk reduction policies in Tenerife. This study tests a comprehensive volcanic risk assessment for Tenerife, but it also provides a framework that is applicable to other regions threatened by volcanic hazards.
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Fujita, Eisuke, Yu Iriyama, Toshiki Shimbori, Eiichi Sato, Kensuke Ishii, Yujiro Suzuki, Kae Tsunematsu, and Koji Kiyosugi. "Evaluating Volcanic Hazard Risk Through Numerical Simulations." Journal of Disaster Research 14, no. 4 (June 1, 2019): 604–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2019.p0604.
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As volcanic hazards induce damage with their flows of gases, liquids, and solid materials, a numerical simulation using multi-phase formulation is applicable to the analysis and evaluation of the risks from these volcanic hazards in both normal and emergent periods. A numerical simulation can also be useful for crisis management. Quick and precise evaluation is needed for upcoming and ongoing hazards, and we present here a concept for the development of a volcanic hazard evaluation system for these hazards, a system in which an input parameter database is compiled and countermeasure information is provided by considering the exposure and vulnerability database.
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Patra, A., M. Bursik, J. Dehn, M. Jones, M. Pavolonis, E. B. Pitman, T. Singh, P. Singla, and P. Webley. "A DDDAS Framework for Volcanic Ash Propagation and Hazard Analysis." Procedia Computer Science 9 (2012): 1090–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2012.04.118.
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Rojas-Barrantes, Martín, and Mario Fernández-Arce. "Volcanic Deposits and Volcanic Hazard in Santo Domingo de Heredia, Costa Rica." Journal of Geography and Geology 8, no. 2 (June 4, 2016): 111. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/jgg.v8n2p111.
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The present research aims to investigate more precisely about the geology of the Eastern region of the Santo Domingo County. Santo Domingo is part of the structural plateau in the center of Costa Rica, which is located at the foot of the Cordillera Volcánica Central (CVF) [Central Volcanic Front] and is covered by volcanic deposits. On this plateau, called Central Valley, is the highest percentage of the population of the country and therefore, a large sector of the Costa Rican population is exposed to volcanic eruptions of the volcanoes in the CVF. For existing the national system for risk management and a law that demands actions to local authorities to prevent and mitigate disaster, it is necessary to identify the threats that exist in the cantons (counties) of Costa Rica. This will serve to take the prevention and mitigation actions necessary to reduce the impact of volcanic eruptions in the area of Santo Domingo.The research method consisted of review and analysis of previous works through literature research, data collection and analysis of boreholes from records of water-supply wells and open pits, and field work to better know the geology of the area. The results indicate that there are deposits of powerful volcanic eruptions of pyroclastic fall deposits (volcanic ash and lapilli) that mostly form clayey soils and lahars deposits that practically covers the entire territory. Underlying these deposits there is a pyroclastic flow deposit (ignimbrite), followed by lapilli tephra (a layer of pumice of at least 2 meters thick) that mark a change in the volcanic activity. Such pyroclastic flow is overlaid by an igneous presumably sub-volcanic activity of andesites interlayered with ancient tuffs, with a considerable thickness of over 350 meters according with borehole data and the exposure recognition on Pará river study sites. According to site locations (P1 to P23) of volcaniclastic deposits, there is evidence of an important environmental impact caused by the last eruptions of the CVF volcanoes. The real and current volcanic threat to the population of the County is the fall-out of ash emitted from the Turrialba and Irazú volcanoes. From local observations along the Virilla and Pará rivers sections, there is no evidence of younger pyroclastic flows overlying the volcanic sequence.
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Sasaki, Natsuki, and Toshihiko Sugai. "Geomorphological analysis of wetland distribution on various spatial scales." Proceedings of the ICA 2 (July 10, 2019): 1–5. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/ica-proc-2-112-2019.
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<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> This study introduces some case analyses of wetland distribution on various spatial scales, from nationwide to the area of a wetland group, with a focus on geomorphological feature. Then described the usefulness of GIS analysis in wetland research. The nationwide wetland distribution in Japan showed that wetland density was high at less than 200&thinsp;m and around 1600&ndash;2000&thinsp;m. Wetlands in mountainous regions were concentrated in snowy Quaternary volcanic regions from the center to the northern part of Japan. This implied snow accumulation and topography of volcanic mountains are important for wetland formation. Secondly, we clarified that wetlands were mainly distributed on the gentle slope of original volcanic surfaces and in landslides in the Hachimantai volcanic groups, in the northern Japan, using 10-m grid DEM and aerial photo interpretation. With the higher-resolution data, it was clear that wetlands were arranged depending on the microtopography of landslides and volcanic surfaces and groundwater. Using data with resolution suitable for the target topographical size and combining the results of multiple spatial scales/resolutions, we can understand the origin of wetlands in more detail.</p>
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Fatmawati, D., E. A. Nurdin, E. I. Pangastuti, F. A. Kurnianto, and Y. Yushardi. "Analysis of Landslide Disaster at the Quaternary Volcanic Landform." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 975, no. 1 (January 1, 2022): 012012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/975/1/012012.
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Abstract Indonesia as a country that has two seasons, namely the rainy and dry seasons, making it vulnerable to natural disasters such as hydrometeorological disasters where disasters occur due to conditions and weather such as landslides. This study aims to analyze the vulnerability of landslides and it relationship with the quaternary volcanic landform in Gandusari District, Blitar Regency. The method used is quantitative with a scoring that refers to the estimation model of Puslittanak, 2004 with parameters that consist of rainfall, geology, slope, land cover, and soil type. After getting the results of the landslide hazard map, validation was carried out with interviews and then the map results will also be analyzed with the condition of population density in Gandusari District, Blitar Regency. The results showed that landslide hazard classes are divided into three classes, namely high, medium, and low. Population densities in several locations are found in areas of high soil susceptibility so that efforts are needed to reduce population density, especially in mountainous slope areas.
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Nomikou, Paraskevi, Pavlos Krassakis, Stavroula Kazana, Dimitrios Papanikolaou, and Nikolaos Koukouzas. "The Volcanic Relief within the Kos-Nisyros-Tilos Tectonic Graben at the Eastern Edge of the Aegean Volcanic Arc, Greece and Geohazard Implications." Geosciences 11, no. 6 (May 27, 2021): 231. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geosciences11060231.
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The active Kos-Nisyros-Tilos volcanic field is located in the eastern sector of the Aegean Volcanic Arc resulting from the subduction of the African plate beneath the Aegean plate. The volcanic activity is developed since Middle Pleistocene and it occurs within a tectonic graben with several volcanic outcrops both onshore and offshore. Data obtained from previous offshore geophysical surveys and ROV exploration, combined with geospatial techniques have been used to construct synthetic maps of the broader submarine area. The volcanic relief is analyzed from the base of the volcanic structures offshore to their summits onshore reaching 1373 m of height and their volumes have been computed with 24.26 km3 for Nisyros Island and a total volume of 54.42 km3 for the entire volcanic area. The volcanic structures are distinguished in: (1) volcanic cones at the islands of Nisyros (older strato-volcano), Pergousa, Yali and Strongyli, (2) volcanic domes at the islands of Pachia, East Kondeliousa and Nisyros (younger Prophitis Ilias domes), (3) submarine volcanic calderas (Avyssos and Kefalos). Submarine volcanic debris avalanches have been also described south of Nisyros and undulating features at the eastern Kefalos bay. Submarine canyons and channels are developed along the Kos southern margin contrary to the Tilos margin. Ground truth campaigns with submarine vessels and ROVs have verified the previous analysis in several submarine volcanic sites. The geohazards of the area comprise: (1) seismic hazard, both due to the activation of major marginal faults and minor intra-volcanic faults, (2) volcanic hazard, related to the recent volcanic structures and long term iconic eruptions related to the deep submarine calderas, (3) tsunami hazard, related to the seismic hazard as well as to the numerous unstable submarine slopes with potential of gravity sliding.
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Becerril, Laura, Joan Martí, Stefania Bartolini, and Adelina Geyer. "Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands)." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 17, no. 7 (July 11, 2017): 1145–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1145-2017.
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Abstract. Conducting long-term hazard assessment in active volcanic areas is of primary importance for land-use planning and defining emergency plans able to be applied in case of a crisis. A definition of scenario hazard maps helps to mitigate the consequences of future eruptions by anticipating the events that may occur. Lanzarote is an active volcanic island that has hosted the largest (> 1.5 km3 DRE) and longest (6 years) eruption, the Timanfaya eruption (1730–1736), on the Canary Islands in historical times (last 600 years). This eruption brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. In spite of all these facts, no comprehensive hazard assessment or hazard maps have been developed for the island. In this work, we present an integrated long-term volcanic hazard evaluation using a systematic methodology that includes spatial analysis and simulations of the most probable eruptive scenarios.
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Sun, Jongsun, Jae-kwang Ahn, Haseong Lee, Eui-Hong Hwang, and Duk Kee Lee. "Analysis of Japanese Volcanic Ash Dispersion on the Korean Peninsula using Satellite Imagery." Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation 20, no. 3 (June 30, 2020): 269–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.9798/kosham.2020.20.3.269.
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A volcanic eruption is a kind of global natural disaster that can occur suddenly and cause great damage to humankind. During the eruption, the magma causes fatal damage to life and property in areas near the volcano, and nearby countries are affected by the spread of volcanic ash, causing secondary damage due to air and soil pollution. Near the Korean peninsula, there exists an active volcano that can spread volcanic ash over long distances by erupting above Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 4. Volcanoes in Japan have been known to cause considerable volcanic ash damage on the Korean Peninsula during eruption. Accordingly, the Korea Meteorological Administration is developing technology to predict and monitor volcanic ash spread using satellite images. However, despite the fact that empirical models for volcanic ash diffusion range prediction are used during volcanic eruptions, continuous improvement is needed for accurate information prediction. In this study, satellite images were analyzed not for the predicted distance of volcanic ash clouds, but for the actual distance of volcanic ash dispersion in cases where the volcanic ashes dispersed in the direction of the Korean peninsula. Of the 3,880 volcanoes that erupted in Japan over the last four years, 111 cases were identified where the height and spread distance of the volcanic ash that erupted toward the Korean Peninsula can be confirmed. In addition, the actual volcanic eruption cases and modeling results were analyzed to determine the extent of volcanic ash spread, and a hypothetical scenario was tested to quantify the direct damage of the volcanic ash. From the analysis of the volcanic ash spread through the virtual simulations, it was found that the height of the volcanic ash, the direction of the wind, and wind speed during volcanic eruption were important factors.
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Klose, Christian D. "Health risk analysis of volcanic SO2 hazard on Vulcano Island (Italy)." Natural Hazards 43, no. 3 (April 25, 2007): 303–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-007-9115-4.
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Nojima, Nobuoto, Satoshi Fujikawa, Yutaka Ishikawa, Toshihiko Okumura, Hiroyuki Fujiwara, and Nobuyuki Morikawa. "Exposure Analysis Using the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan." Journal of Disaster Research 8, no. 5 (October 1, 2013): 861–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2013.p0861.
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With the aim of better understanding and more effective utilization of probabilistic seismic hazard maps in Japan, exposure analysis has been carried out by combining hazard maps with population distribution maps. Approximately 80% of the population of Japan is exposed to a relatively high seismic hazard, i.e., a 3% probability of exceeding JMAseismic intensity 6 lower within 30 years. In highly populated areas, specifically in major metropolitan areas, seismic hazard tends to relatively high because of the site amplification effects of holocene deposits. In implementing earthquake disaster mitigation measures, it is important to consider the overlapping effect of seismic hazard and demographic distributions.
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Marzocchi, Warner, Jacopo Selva, and Thomas H. Jordan. "A unified probabilistic framework for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 21, no. 11 (November 18, 2021): 3509–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021.
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Abstract. The main purpose of this article is to emphasize the importance of clarifying the probabilistic framework adopted for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting. Eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard analysis seek to quantify the deep uncertainties that pervade the modeling of pre-, sin-, and post-eruptive processes. These uncertainties can be differentiated into three fundamental types: (1) the natural variability of volcanic systems, usually represented as stochastic processes with parameterized distributions (aleatory variability); (2) the uncertainty in our knowledge of how volcanic systems operate and evolve, often represented as subjective probabilities based on expert opinion (epistemic uncertainty); and (3) the possibility that our forecasts are wrong owing to behaviors of volcanic processes about which we are completely ignorant and, hence, cannot quantify in terms of probabilities (ontological error). Here we put forward a probabilistic framework for hazard analysis recently proposed by Marzocchi and Jordan (2014), which unifies the treatment of all three types of uncertainty. Within this framework, an eruption forecasting or a volcanic hazard model is said to be complete only if it (a) fully characterizes the epistemic uncertainties in the model's representation of aleatory variability and (b) can be unconditionally tested (in principle) against observations to identify ontological errors. Unconditional testability, which is the key to model validation, hinges on an experimental concept that characterizes hazard events in terms of exchangeable data sequences with well-defined frequencies. We illustrate the application of this unified probabilistic framework by describing experimental concepts for the forecasting of tephra fall from Campi Flegrei. Eventually, this example may serve as a guide for the application of the same probabilistic framework to other natural hazards.
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Pan, Cheng Yu, Yuan Cheih Wu, and Chih Wei Chang. "Preliminary Volcanic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Tatun Volcano Group in Northern Taiwan." Applied Mechanics and Materials 479-480 (December 2013): 1061–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.479-480.1061.
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Tatun volcano group is located in north Taiwan and near Taipei Basin where several million people live there. Although it provides hot spring and landscape for citizens and keeps calm most of time, the threat remains, particularly for the two nearby nuclear power plants. This paper discusses the seismic hazard of volcanic seismic source including source characterization of Tatun volcano group, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), and its preliminary seismic hazard result. Based on nuclear regulatory requirement for PSHA, the uncertainties of source parameters are vital, such as geometry, maximum earthquake, and activity relating earthquake catalog selection, so the first-time seismic source characterization workshop for volcano is held to let domestic experts discuss their hypotheses and investigation result. Hence, the renewed source parameters can represent current geo-science for Tatun volcanic seismic source, and the process of PSHA can lead the better way to combine the result of different research projects for Tatun volcano.
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Ang, Pei Shan, Mark S. Bebbington, Jan M. Lindsay, and Susanna F. Jenkins. "From eruption scenarios to probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis: An example of the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand." Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 397 (May 2020): 106871. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2020.106871.
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Bartolini, Stefania, Carmen López, Laura Becerril, Rosa Sobradelo, and Joan Martí. "A retrospective study of the pre-eruptive unrest on El Hierro (Canary Islands): implications of seismicity and deformation in the short-term volcanic hazard assessment." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 18, no. 6 (June 22, 2018): 1759–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1759-2018.
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Abstract. The correct identification and interpretation of unrest indicators is useful for forecasting volcanic eruptions, delivering early warnings, and understanding the changes occurring in a volcanic system prior to an eruption. Such indicators play an important role in upgrading previous long-term volcanic hazard assessments and help explain the complexities of the preceding period of eruptive activity. In this work, we present a retrospective analysis of the 2011 unrest episode on the island of El Hierro, Canary Islands, that preceded a submarine eruption. We use seismic and surface deformation monitoring data to compute the susceptibility analysis (QVAST tool) and to study the evolution over time of the unrest (ST-HASSET tool). Additionally, we show the advantages to be gained by using continuous monitoring data and hazard assessment e-tools to upgrade spatiotemporal analyses and thus visualize more simply the development of the volcanic activity.
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TAKAO, Makoto, Jiro TSUCHIYAMA, Tadashi ANNAKA, and Tetsushi KURITA. "Application of Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis in Japan." Journal of Japan Association for Earthquake Engineering 13, no. 1 (2013): 17–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.5610/jaee.13.17.
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Stirling, M. W., and C. J. N. Wilson. "Development of a volcanic hazard model for New Zealand." Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering 35, no. 4 (December 31, 2002): 266–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.35.4.266-277.
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We commence development of a volcanic hazard model for New Zealand by applying the well- established methods of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to volcanoes. As part of this work we use seismologically-based methods to develop eruption volume - frequency distributions for the Okataina and Taupo volcanoes of the central Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand. Our procedure is to use the geologic and historical record of large eruptions (erupted magma volumes ≥ 0.01 cubic km for Taupo and ≥ 0.5 cubic km for Okataina) to construct eruption volume-frequency distributions for the two volcanoes. The two volcanoes show log-log distributions of decreasing frequency as a function of eruption volume, analogous to the shape of earthquake magnitude-frequency distributions constructed from seismicity catalogues. On the basis of these eruption volume-frequency distributions we estimate the maximum eruption volumes that Taupo and Okataina are capable of producing at probability levels of relevance to engineers and planners. We find that a maximum eruption volume of 0.1 cubic km is expected from Taupo with a 10% probability in 50 years, while Okataina may not produce a large eruption at this probability level. However, at the more conservative 2% probability in 50 years, both volcanoes are expected to produce large eruptions (0.5 cubic km for Okataina and 1 cubic km for Taupo). Our study therefore shows significant differences in eruption probabilities for volcanoes in the same physiographic region, and therefore highlights the importance of establishing unique eruption databases for all volcanoes in a hazard analysis.
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Sobradelo, R., J. Martí, A. T. Mendoza-Rosas, and G. Gómez. "Volcanic hazard assessment for the Canary Islands (Spain) using extreme value theory." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 11, no. 10 (October 12, 2011): 2741–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2741-2011.
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Abstract. The Canary Islands are an active volcanic region densely populated and visited by several millions of tourists every year. Nearly twenty eruptions have been reported through written chronicles in the last 600 yr, suggesting that the probability of a new eruption in the near future is far from zero. This shows the importance of assessing and monitoring the volcanic hazard of the region in order to reduce and manage its potential volcanic risk, and ultimately contribute to the design of appropriate preparedness plans. Hence, the probabilistic analysis of the volcanic eruption time series for the Canary Islands is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk in the area. Such a series describes complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. Here we propose a statistical method for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions which is most appropriate given the nature of the documented historical eruptive data. We first characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes, and then carry out a preliminary analysis of the data to establish the requirements for the statistical method. Past studies in eruptive time series used conventional statistics and treated the series as an homogeneous process. In this paper, we will use a method that accounts for the time-dependence of the series and includes rare or extreme events, in the form of few data of large eruptions, since these data require special methods of analysis. Hence, we will use a statistical method from extreme value theory. In particular, we will apply a non-homogeneous Poisson process to the historical eruptive data of the Canary Islands to estimate the probability of having at least one volcanic event of a magnitude greater than one in the upcoming years. This is done in three steps: First, we analyze the historical eruptive series to assess independence and homogeneity of the process. Second, we perform a Weibull analysis of the distribution of repose time between successive eruptions. Third, we analyze the non-homogeneous Poisson process with a generalized Pareto distribution as the intensity function.
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Perugini, Diego, and Ulrich Kueppers. "Fractal analysis of experimentally generated pyroclasts: A tool for volcanic hazard assessment." Acta Geophysica 60, no. 3 (February 28, 2012): 682–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/s11600-012-0019-7.
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Wahyuni Nurwihastuti, Dwi, Anik Juli Dwi Astuti, Eni Yuniastuti, Reh Bungana Beru Perangin-Angin, and Nahor M. Simanungkalit. "Volcanic hazard analysis of sinabung volcano eruption in karo north sumatra indonesia." Journal of Physics: Conference Series 1175 (March 2019): 012186. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1175/1/012186.
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Pakoksung, Kwanchai, Anawat Suppasri, and Fumihiko Imamura. "Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis of Inundated Buildings Following a Subaqueous Volcanic Explosion Based on the 1716 Tsunami Scenario in Taal Lake, Philippines." Geosciences 11, no. 2 (February 16, 2021): 92. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geosciences11020092.
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A probabilistic hazard analysis of a tsunami generated by a subaqueous volcanic explosion was performed for Taal Lake in the Philippines. The Taal volcano at Taal Lake is an active volcano on Luzon Island in the Philippines, and its eruption would potentially generate tsunamis in the lake. This study aimed to analyze a probabilistic tsunami hazard of inundated buildings for tsunami mitigation in future scenarios. To determine the probabilistic tsunami hazard, different explosion diameters were used to generate tsunamis of different magnitudes in the TUNAMI-N2 model. The initial water level in the tsunami model was estimated based on the explosion energy. The tsunami-induced inundation from the TUNAMI-N2 model was overlaid on the distribution of buildings. The tsunami hazard analysis of inundated buildings was performed by using the maximum inundation depth in each explosion case. These products were used to calculate the probability of the inundated building given the occurrence of a subaqueous explosion. The results from this study can be used for future tsunami mitigation if a tsunami is generated by a subaqueous volcanic explosion.
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Tsuyuzaki, Shiro, and Roger del Moral. "Canonical correspondence analysis of early volcanic succession on Mt Usu, Japan." Ecological Research 9, no. 2 (August 1994): 143–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf02347489.
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Iguchi, Masato, Haruhisa Nakamichi, Hiroshi Tanaka, Yusaku Ohta, Atsushi Shimizu, and Daisuke Miki. "Integrated Monitoring of Volcanic Ash and Forecasting at Sakurajima Volcano, Japan." Journal of Disaster Research 14, no. 5 (August 1, 2019): 798–809. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2019.p0798.
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The Sakurajima volcano is characterized by frequent vulcanian eruptions at the Minamidake or Showa crater in the summit area. We installed an integrated monitoring system for the detection of volcanic ash (composed of remote sensing sensors XMP radars, lidar, and GNSS with different wave lengths) and 13 optical disdrometers on the ground covering all directions from the crater to measure drop size distribution and falling velocity. Campaign sampling of volcanic ash supports the conversion of particle counts measured by the disdrometer to the weight of volcanic ash. Seismometers and tilt/strain sensors were used to estimate the discharge rate of volcanic ash from the vents. XMP radar can detect volcanic ash clouds even under visual difficulty because of weather such as fog or clouds. A vulcanian eruption on November 13 was the largest event at the Sakurajima volcano in 2017; however, the volcanic plume was not visible due to clouds covering the summit. Radar revealed that the volcanic plume reached an elevation of 4.2–6.2 km. Post-fit phase residuals (PPR) from the GNSS analysis increased suddenly after the eruption, and large-PPR paths from the satellites to the ground-based receivers intersected each other at an elevation of 4.2 km. The height of the volcanic plume was also estimated from the discharge rate of volcanic ash to be 4.5 km, which is empirically related to seismic energy and the deflation volume obtained via ground deformation monitoring. Using the PUFF model, the weight of the ash-fall deposit was accurately forecast in the main direction of transport of the volcanic ash, which was verified by disdrometers. For further advances in forecasting of the ash-fall deposit, we must consider high-resolution wind field, shape of volcanic plume as the initial value, and the particle number distribution along the volcanic plume.
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Takara, Kaoru. "Promotion of Interdisciplinary and Transdisciplinary Collaboration in Disaster Risk Reduction." Journal of Disaster Research 13, no. 7 (December 1, 2018): 1193–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2018.p1193.
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This paper describes interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary approaches inevitably necessary for effective disaster risk management, introducing examples involving the tsunami hazard map in Sendai, volcanic eruption in Iceland, and river flooding in Thailand. On the basis of the conversations conducted at the Global Forum on Science and Technology for Disaster Resilience 2017 held at the Science Council of Japan in Tokyo on November 23–25, 2017, this paper summarizes the results of the discussion for further development of these approaches. Some international initiatives are also briefly introduced.
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Scollo, Simona, Antonella Boselli, Stefano Corradini, Giuseppe Leto, Lorenzo Guerrieri, Luca Merucci, Michele Prestifilippo, Ricardo Zanmar Sanchez, Alessia Sannino, and Dario Stelitano. "Multi-Sensor Analysis of a Weak and Long-Lasting Volcanic Plume Emission." Remote Sensing 12, no. 23 (November 25, 2020): 3866. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs12233866.
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Volcanic emissions are a well-known hazard that can have serious impacts on local populations and aviation operations. Whereas several remote sensing observations detect high-intensity explosive eruptions, few studies focus on low intensity and long-lasting volcanic emissions. In this work, we have managed to fully characterize those events by analyzing the volcanic plume produced on the last day of the 2018 Christmas eruption at Mt. Etna, in Italy. We combined data from a visible calibrated camera, a multi-wavelength elastic/Raman Lidar system, from SEVIRI (EUMETSAT-MSG) and MODIS (NASA-Terra/Aqua) satellites and, for the first time, data from an automatic sun-photometer of the aerosol robotic network (AERONET). Results show that the volcanic plume height, ranging between 4.5 and 6 km at the source, decreased by about 0.5 km after 25 km. Moreover, the volcanic plume was detectable by the satellites up to a distance of about 400 km and contained very fine particles with a mean effective radius of about 7 µm. In some time intervals, volcanic ash mass concentration values were around the aviation safety thresholds of 2 × 10−3 g m−3. Of note, Lidar observations show two main stratifications of about 0.25 km, which were not observed at the volcanic source. The presence of the double stratification could have important implications on satellite retrievals, which usually consider only one plume layer. This work gives new details on the main features of volcanic plumes produced during low intensity and long-lasting volcanic plume emissions.
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De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando, and Gerardo Carrasco-Núñez. "Probabilistic hazard analysis of Citlaltépetl (Pico de Orizaba) Volcano, eastern Mexican Volcanic Belt." Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 113, no. 1-2 (March 2002): 307–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0377-0273(01)00263-3.
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Fujii, Toshitsutgu, and Kazuhiro Ishihara. "Special Issue on Volcanic Disasters." Journal of Disaster Research 3, no. 4 (August 1, 2008): 251. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2008.p0251.
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The volcanic disasters are quite variable depending on the nature of the volcanic eruptions, the degrees of land-use surrounding the volcanic areas and preparedness against the eruptions. In order to mitigate the volcanic disasters, therefore, multidisciplinary approach is required. The International Volcanic Conference, ``Cities on Volcanoes 5," held in Shimabara Japan on the November 19-23, 2007 encouraged a wide range of people who are engaged in the volcanic disaster mitigation to gather to discuss topics related to volcanic eruptions and their hazards. The aim of this conference was to evaluate and improve mitigation measures, emergency management, and all required to successfully confront volcanic crises in densely populated area and to recover from any devastation. As the main topics discussed during the conference is quite adequate for the aim of this journal, this special issue tried to include papers read at the conference as many as possible. For the mitigation of the volcanic disasters, several different approaches should be included. Volcano monitoring through observation is the basis for most eruption forecasts and other measures for volcanic disaster mitigation. Impacts on human health and sustainability in volcanic areas in the fields of air and water pollution are also important issues to be included in the management of volcanic hazards. The practical lessons learned through the case histories of actual events should be shared to prepare for and respond to volcano crises that may affect communities. Hiroaki Takahashi proposes a method to estimate the real-time eruption magnitude that might be utilized to judge the duration of eruption in the early stage of eruption. Yoshikazu Kikawada et al. summarize arsenic pollution of rivers originated from the Kusatsu volcanic region. Tsuneomi Kagiyama and Yuichi Morita discuss the strategy to understand the preparing process of caldera forming eruption as a first step to assess the risk of gigantic eruption. Hiroshi Ikeya describes the prevention works executed by the central and local governments during and after the Mt. Unzen 1990-1995 eruption. Harry J. R. Keys summarizes the aspects of risk assessment and mitigation for a dome-break lahar that was predicted in 1995 and actually occurred on 18 March 2007 at Ruapehu volcano. Yoichi Nakamura et al. describe the mitigation systems on volcanic disasters in Japan emphasizing the importance of preparing hazard maps. We know the topics covered by this special issue do not represent the wide-ranging aspect of the conference, but include some significant portion. We hope that this special issue will be utilized to share the lessons learned through the practical trial to mitigate the actual disasters during the volcanic crisis.
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Marrero, J. M., A. García, A. Llinares, J. A. Rodríguez-Losada, and R. Ortiz. "The Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM): a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crises." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 10, no. 4 (April 14, 2010): 747–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-747-2010.
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Abstract. Volcanic eruptions are among the most awesome and powerful displays of nature's force, constituting a major natural hazard for society (a single eruption can claim thousands of lives in an instant). Consequently, assessment and management of volcanic risk have become critically important goals of modern volcanology. Over recent years, numerous tools have been developed to evaluate volcanic risk and support volcanic crisis management: probabilistic analysis of future eruptions, hazard and risk maps, event trees, etc. However, there has been little improvement in the tools that may help Civil Defense officials to prepare Emergency Plans. Here we present a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crisis: the Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM). The main objective of the VSEM software is to optimize the evacuation process of Emergency Plans during volcanic crisis. For this, the VSEM allows the simulation of an evacuation considering different strategies depending on diverse impact scenarios. VSEM is able to calculate the required time for the complete evacuation taking into account diverse evacuation scenarios (number and type of population, infrastructure, road network, etc.) and to detect high-risk or "blackspots" of the road network. The program is versatile and can work at different scales, thus being capable of simulating the evacuation of small villages as well as huge cities.
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Verkhoturov, Alexey A. "ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN THE STATE OF ECOSYSTEMS ON ATLASOVA ISLAND (KURIL ISLANDS)." Vestnik SSUGT (Siberian State University of Geosystems and Technologies) 25, no. 3 (2020): 139–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.33764/2411-1759-2020-25-3-139-150.
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The territory of the Kuril Islands is a chain of volcanic structures and is subject, to certain extent, to volcanic hazards. Atlasova Island is composed of products of the Alaid volcano, which is characterized by effusive and explosive activity. The article analyzes the changes in ecosystems on Atlasov island, which are periodically caused by the Alaid volcano eruption. Large amount of pyroclastic material are brought to the surface during explosive eruptions: blocks, bombs, tephra, lapilli and volcanic ash, which is transported in the atmosphere over very long distances. Ecosystems are affected by pyroclastic deposition over a large area of island land. The purpose of this study was to identify the nature and extent of changes in the state of ecosystems affected by volcanic eruptions from multi-zone satellite images of medium resolution. Analysis of data obtained from space systems Landsat and Sentinel for the period 1972 to 2020, in GIS environment allowed us to trace the dynamics and character of the successions to the affected areas on the calculated values of the vegetation index NDVI. Techniques developed in the process of studying this issue can further facili-tate rapid assessment of impacts on ecosystems at the effusive-explosive eruptions and forecast volcanic hazard for surrounding areas.
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Andò, Bruno, Salvatore Baglio, Salvatore Castorina, and Vincenzo Marletta. "A Vision-Based Approach for the Analysis of Core Characteristics of Volcanic Ash." Sensors 21, no. 21 (October 29, 2021): 7180. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s21217180.
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Volcanic ash fall-out represents a serious hazard for air and road traffic. The forecasting models used to predict its time–space evolution require information about the core characteristics of volcanic particles, such as their granulometry. Typically, such information is gained by the spot direct observation of the ash collected at the ground or by using expensive instrumentation. In this paper, a vision-based methodology aimed at the estimation of ash granulometry is presented. A dedicated image processing paradigm was developed and implemented in LabVIEW™. The methodology was validated experimentally using digital reference images resembling different operating conditions. The outcome of the assessment procedure was very encouraging, showing an accuracy of the image processing algorithm of 1.76%.
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Takada, Youichiro, and Yo Fukushima. "Volcanic Subsidence Triggered by Megathrust Earthquakes." Journal of Disaster Research 9, no. 3 (June 1, 2014): 373–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2014.p0373.
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Studies using spaceborne interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) analysis showed that two megathrust earthquakes – the 2011Mw9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake in Japan and the 2010Mw8.8Maule earthquake in Chile – triggered unprecedented subsidence in multiple volcanoes. There are strong similarities in the characteristics of the surface deformation in Japan and Chile: (1) Maximum subsidence is about 15 cm. (2) Areas of subsidence are elliptically elongated in a north-south direction perpendicular to the principal axis of the extensional stress change. (3) Most of this subsidence is coseismic. These similarities imply that volcanic subsidence triggered by the megathrust earthquakes is a ubiquitous phenomenon. Nonetheless, the mechanism of subsidence is yet to be investigated. Two main hypotheses have been proposed thus far: 1) The localized deformation of hot and weak plutonic bodies. 2) Water release from large hydrothermal reservoirs beneath the volcanoes.
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Ramírez Eudave, Rafael, and Tiago Miguel Ferreira. "Towards a Semi-Quantitative Approach for Assessing Evacuation Scenarios in the Context of Popocatépetl Volcano, México—The Case of San Pedro Tlalmimilulpan." GeoHazards 2, no. 1 (January 25, 2021): 1–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geohazards2010001.
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Volcanic exposure implies multiple hazards for human settlements. The identification of the potential hazards that volcanic activity can entail is a challenge requiring assessing the specific situations that a determined place would face. Popocatépetl, a volcano in the centre of México, represents a significant hazard source, and it is located within a densely populated region with more than 20 million people. Despite the existence of a colour-based volcano alert level system for the current activity of the volcano, it is relevant to assess which local scenarios are more likely depending on numerous variables, namely, related to the distance from the volcano. A semi-quantitative analysis was carried out based on existing hazard maps and considering the probability of occurrence of volcanic explosivity, taking the settlement of San Pedro Tlalmimilulpan as a case study. This analysis led to a hierarchised rank of hazards, providing a basis for analysing multiple scenarios through failure mode and event analysis, failure tree analysis and event tree analysis. This process facilitates the contextualisation of the multiple challenges and potential chains of events that emergency actions, namely, emergency evacuations, would face. The analysis of the critical paths can help to identify critical aspects that could hinder the post-event response.
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Gunkel, G., C. Beulker, B. Grupe, and F. Viteri. "Hazards of volcanic lakes: analysis of Lakes Quilotoa and Cuicocha, Ecuador." Advances in Geosciences 14 (January 2, 2008): 29–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-14-29-2008.
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Abstract. Volcanic lakes within calderas should be viewed as high-risk systems, and an intensive lake monitoring must be carried out to evaluate the hazard of potential limnic or phreatic-magmatic eruptions. In Ecuador, two caldera lakes – Lakes Quilotoa and Cuicocha, located in the high Andean region >3000 a.s.l. – have been the focus of these investigations. Both volcanoes are geologically young or historically active, and have formed large and deep calderas with lakes of 2 to 3 km in diameter, and 248 and 148 m in depth, respectively. In both lakes, visible gas emissions of CO2 occur, and an accumulation of CO2 in the deep water body must be taken into account. Investigations were carried out to evaluate the hazards of these volcanic lakes, and in Lake Cuicocha intensive monitoring was carried out for the evaluation of possible renewed volcanic activities. At Lake Quilotoa, a limnic eruption and diffuse CO2 degassing at the lake surface are to be expected, while at Lake Cuicocha, an increased risk of a phreatic-magmatic eruption exists.
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Horwell, Claire J. "Grain-size analysis of volcanic ash for the rapid assessment of respiratory health hazard." Journal of Environmental Monitoring 9, no. 10 (2007): 1107. http://dx.doi.org/10.1039/b710583p.
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El Difrawy, M. A., M. G. Runge, M. R. Moufti, S. J. Cronin, and M. Bebbington. "A first hazard analysis of the Quaternary Harrat Al-Madinah volcanic field, Saudi Arabia." Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 267 (November 2013): 39–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2013.09.006.
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