Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Volcanic hazard analysis – Japan'
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1
Hayes, Sara Louise. "Volcanic risk assessments : integrating hazard and social vulnerability analysis." Thesis, University of Plymouth, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10026.1/2170.
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The vulnerability of communities at risk from volcanic activity at Volcan Tungurahua, Ecuador and Mount Rainier in the USA provided the focus for this thesis. The research aimed to develop an integrated approach to risk assessments that combined both hazard and vulnerability analysis. In phase one, the study developed a novel methodology to assess volcanic threat that utilised previously published data. This semi-quantitative approach integrated measures of both hazard and exposure factors, allowing the relative threat to different communities to be ranked. By avoiding the complex quantitative analysis associated with traditional risk assessments of the multiple hazards associated with volcanic activity, this methodology may be applied where comprehensive historic and geological data may be lacking, as well as facilitating understanding amongst non-specialists and members of the public. The second phase of the research investigated human vulnerability, with an exploratory study carried out in Ecuador. This utilised a questionnaire survey aimed at eliciting an individual’s beliefs and attitudes towards volcanic risk, which provided the basis for a more comprehensive exploration of social vulnerability conducted in the USA. This investigated further the role of socio-economic features and psychological characteristics, such as risk perception, hazard salience and self-efficacy, in promoting self-protective behaviour, and examined the relative importance of these factors in determining vulnerability. The theoretical underpinnings of this research suggest that individuals with certain socio-economic characteristics may incur greater losses during a disaster, whilst perceptual processes may influence how an individual responds to a hazardous event. Little evidence was found to support the socio-economic model of vulnerability, which prevented the integration of the two research phases. However, perceptual factors were found to be significant predictors in the adoption of protective hazard adaption. This suggests that targeting risk mitigation and communication strategies to address these psychological constructs may be more important for reducing overall vulnerability than focusing efforts towards specific socio-economic groups.
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Wetie, Ngongang Ariane. "Seismic and Volcanic Hazard Analysis for Mount Cameroon Volcano." Diss., University of Pretoria, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/60871.
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Mount Cameroon is considered the only active volcano along a 1600 km long chain of volcanic complexes called the Cameroon Volcanic Line (CVL). It has erupted seven times during the last 100 years, the most recent was in May 2000. The approximately 500,000 inhabitants that live and work around the fertile flanks are exposed to impending threats from volcanic eruptions and earthquakes.
In this thesis, a hazard assessment study that involves both statistical modelling of seismic hazard parameters and the evaluation of a future volcanic risk was undertaken on Mount Cameroon. The Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relations, the annual activity rate, the maximum magnitude, the rate of volcanic eruptions and risks assessment were examined.
The seismic hazard parameters were estimated using the Maximum Likelihood Method on the basis of a procedure which combines seismic data containing incomplete files of large historical events with complete files of short periods of observations. A homogenous Poisson distribution model was applied to previous recorded volcanic eruptions of Mount Cameroon to determine the frequency of eruption and assess the probability of a future eruption.
Frequency-magnitude plots indicated that Gutenberg-Richter b-values are partially dependent on the maximum regional magnitude and the method used in their calculation. b-values showed temporal and spatial variation with an average value of 1.53 ± 0.02. The intrusion of a magma body generating the occurrence of relatively small earthquakes as observed in our instrumental catalogue, could be responsible for this high anomalous b-value.
An epicentre map of locally recorded earthquakes revealed that the southeastern zone is the most seismically active part of the volcano. The annual mean activity rate of the seismicity strongly depends on the time span of the seismic catalogue and results showed that on average, one earthquake event occurs every 10 days. The maximum regional magnitude values which had been determined from various approaches overlap when their standard deviations are taken into account. However, the magnitude distribution model of the Mt. Cameroon earthquakes might not follow the form of the Gutenberg-Richter frequency magnitude relationship.
The datations of the last eruptive events that have occurred on Mt. Cameroon volcanic complex are presented. No specific pattern was observed on the frequency of eruptions, which means that a homogenous Poisson distribution provides a suitable model to estimate the rate of occurrence of volcanic eruptions and evaluate the risk of a future eruption. Two different approaches were used to estimate the mean eruption rate (λ) and both yielded a value of 0.074. The results showed that eruptions take place on average once every 13 years and, with the last eruption occurring over 15 years ago, it is considered that there is at present a high risk of an eruption to occur.Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2016.
Geology
MSc
Unrestricted
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Roman, Diana Christine. "Changes in local stress field orientation in response to magmatic activity /." view abstract or download file of text, 2004. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/uoregon/fullcit?p3136443.
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Hill-Butler, C. "Evaluating the effect of large magnitude earthquakes on thermal volcanic activity : a comparative assessment of the parameters and mechanisms that trigger volcanic unrest and eruptions." Thesis, Coventry University, 2015. http://curve.coventry.ac.uk/open/items/5f612a7d-ebbf-4d38-90aa-89c4984a1c0f/1.
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Volcanic eruptions and unrest have the potential to have large impacts on society causing social, economic and environmental losses. One of the primary goals of volcanological studies is to understand a volcano’s behaviour so that future instances of unrest or impending eruptions can be predicted. Despite this, our ability to predict the onset, location and size of future periods of unrest remains inadequate and one of the main problems in forecasting is associated with the inherent complexity of volcanoes. In practice, most reliable forecasts have employed a probabilistic approach where knowledge of volcanic activity triggers have been incorporated into scenarios to indicate the probability of unrest. The proposed relationship between large earthquakes and volcanic activity may, therefore, indicate an important precursory signal for volcanic activity forecasting. There have been numerous reports of a spatial and temporal link between volcanic activity and high magnitude seismic events and it has been suggested that significantly more periods of volcanic unrest occur in the months and years following an earthquake than expected by chance. Disparities between earthquake-volcano assessments and variability between responding volcanoes, however, has meant that the conditions that influence a volcano’s response to earthquakes have not been determined. Using data from the MODVOLC algorithm, a proxy for volcanic activity, this research examined a globally comparable database of satellite-derived volcanic radiant flux to identify significant changes in volcanic activity following an earthquake. Cases of potentially triggered volcanic activity were then analysed to identify the earthquake and volcano parameters that influence the relationship and evaluate the mechansisms proposed to trigger volcanic activity following an earthquake. At a global scale, this research identified that 57% [8 out of 14] of all large magnitude earthquakes were followed by increases in global volcanic activity. The most significant change in volcanic radiant flux, which demonstrates the potential of large earthquakes to influence volcanic activity at a global scale, occurred between December 2004 and April 2005. During this time, new thermal activity was detected at 10 volcanoes and the total daily volcanic radiant flux doubled within 52 days. Within a regional setting, this research also identified that instances of potentially triggered volcanic activity were statistically different to instances where no triggering was observed. In addition, assessments of earthquake and volcano parameters identified that earthquake fault characteristics increase the probability of triggered volcanic activity and variable response proportions at individual volcanoes and regionally demonstrated the critical role of the state of the volcanic system in determining if a volcano will respond. Despite the identification of these factors, this research was not able to define a model for the prediction of volcanic activity following earthquakes and, alternatively, proposed a process for response. In doing so, this thesis confirmed the potential use of earthquakes as a precursory indicator to volcanic activity and identified the most likely mechanisms that lead to seismically triggered volcanic unrest.
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TOPRAK, FUNDA O. "CONSTRAINING THE POTENTIAL RESPIRATORY HEALTH HAZARD FROM LARGE VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2007. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1186151662.
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Hintz, Amanda Rachelle. "Physical Volcanology and Hazard Analysis of a Young Monogenetic Volcanic Field: Black Rock Desert, Utah." [Tampa, Fla] : University of South Florida, 2008. http://purl.fcla.edu/usf/dc/et/SFE0002716.
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Kiyosugi, Koji. "Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Monogenetic Volcanic Fields." Scholar Commons, 2012. http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/4101.
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Achieving an understanding of the nature of monogenetic volcanic fields depends on identification of the spatial and temporal patterns of volcanism in these fields, and their relationships to structures mapped in the shallow crust and inferred in the deep crust and mantle through interpretation of geochemical, radiometric and geophysical data.
We investigate the spatial and temporal distributions of volcanism in the Abu Monogenetic Volcano Group, Southwest Japan. E-W elongated volcano distribution, which is identified by a nonparametric kernel method, is found to be consistent with the spatial extent of P-wave velocity anomalies in the lower crust and upper mantle, supporting the idea that the spatial density map of volcanic vents reflects the geometry of a mantle diapir. Estimated basalt supply to the lower crust is constant. This observation and the spatial distribution of volcanic vents suggest stability of magma productivity and essentially constant two-dimensional size of the source mantle diapir.
We mapped conduits, dike segments, and sills in the San Rafael sub-volcanic field, Utah, where the shallowest part of a Pliocene magmatic system is exceptionally well exposed. The distribution of conduits matches the major features of dike distribution, including development of clusters and distribution of outliers. The comparison of San Rafael conduit distribution and the distributions of volcanoes in several recently active volcanic fields supports the use of statistical models, such as nonparametric kernel methods, in probabilistic hazard assessment for distributed volcanism.
We developed a new recurrence rate calculation method that uses a Monte Carlo procedure to better reflect and understand the impact of uncertainties of radiometric age determinations on uncertainty of recurrence rate estimates for volcanic activity in the Abu, Yucca Mountain Region, and Izu-Tobu volcanic fields. Results suggest that the recurrence rates of volcanic fields can change by more than one order of magnitude on time scales of several hundred thousand to several million years. This suggests that magma generation rate beneath volcanic fields may change over these time scales. Also, recurrence rate varies more than one order of magnitude between these volcanic fields, consistent with the idea that distributed volcanism may be influenced by both the rate of magma generation and the potential for dike interaction during ascent.
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Itamochi, Mami. "Effective planning for seismic risk case of Kobe, Japan /." Huntington, WV : [Marshall University Libraries], 2004. http://www.marshall.edu/etd/descript.asp?ref=411.
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Thesis (M.A.)--Marshall University, 2004.Title from document title page. Abstract included. Document formatted into pages; contains vi, 48 p. Includes abstract. Includes bibliographical references (p. 46-48).
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Grunewald, Uwe. "Measuring and modelling of volcanic pollutants from White Island and Ruapehu volcanoes assessment of related hazard in the North Island /." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Geological Sciences, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/1428.
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White Island and Ruapehu are currently the most active volcanoes in New Zealand. During non-eruptive periods, intense quiescent degassing through fumaroles can occur. The current project studies the quiescent degassing plumes, including aerosol sampling on White Island and dispersion modelling of SO₂ and PM₁₀ from White Island and Ruapehu volcanoes. Aerosol sampling from fumaroles at the crater floor on White Island volcano was carried out on 9 February and 6 April 2005. The exposed filters were analysed for various anions and cations and the particle mass concentration and molar concentration determined. Major elemental constituents were sodium and chlorine (Na⁺: 413 µg m⁻³, Cl⁻: 1520 µg m⁻³), which show best correlation at both sampling sessions. Other ions detected, with little correlation, are Ca²⁺, PO₄³⁻ and to a certain extent Mg²⁺. Other constituents found, which cannot correlate explicitly to other ions, are K⁺, NH₄⁺, NO₃⁻, and SO₄²⁻. SEM study of one exposed filter was performed and mainly NaCl particles could be distinguished due to their well-defined cubic shape. The Air Pollution Model (TAPM) was used for dispersion modelling of SO₂ (models 1-4) and PM₁₀ (models 5 and 6) from White Island and Ruapehu volcanoes. Annual modelling was performed using different parameters of emission rate, exit temperature and exit velocity. The resulting plume dispersions show relatively low concentrations at ground level ≤10 m), particularly for the models of PM₁₀ dispersion. TAPM calculated the highest SO₂ ground level concentrations with model 4, where the NES values of 350 and 570 µg m⁻³ were exceeded several times. The data was then used for detailed hazard assessment of urban population in the North Island. The meteorological data from annual modelling was used for model evaluation and compared with observation data from different weather stations by statistical calculations. Overall, TAPM performed well with most good and very good results. To evaluate SO₂ dispersion modelling, airborne plume measurements were carried out on 22 November 2006 by plume traverses at 3, 10 and 20 km. Although there is some variation, the calculated correlation coefficients indicate good model results for two plume traverses at 3 and 20 km and one plume traverse at 10 km. The meteorological data was also used for model evaluation, and the results indicate good model performance. TAPM is therefore suggested for future studies when more observation data are available to verify the calculated model data.
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Sagala, Saut Aritua Hasiholan. "System Analysis of Social Resilience against Volcanic Risks Case Studies of Merapi, Indonesia and Mt.Sakurajima, Japan." 京都大学 (Kyoto University), 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/88040.
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Kyoto University (京都大学)0048
新制・課程博士
博士(工学)
甲第15001号
工博第3175号
新制||工||1477(附属図書館)
27451
UT51-2009-R725
京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻
(主査)教授 岡田 憲夫, 教授 小林 潔司, 教授 多々納 裕一
学位規則第4条第1項該当
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Shillam, Laura-Lee. "Structural diversity and decomposition functions of volcanic soils at different stages of development." Thesis, University of Stirling, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1893/444.
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During a volcanic eruption, the extrusion of lava onto surfaces destroys biological activity creating virgin land surfaces. Through time this new land will be subject to soil formation and colonisation under relatively similar climatic conditions and parent materials. Soils formed from volcanic deposits present a unique opportunity to study microbial community development. Soils at different developmental stages and differing in vegetation cover were selected from four locations on the slopes of Mount Etna, Sicily. Three main research objectives were determined in order to test the hypothesis that the microbial communities from soils at later stages of development would have a greater biomass, be more diverse, be more efficient at utilising carbon sources and recover from an environmental disturbance at a greater rate. A field experiment was conducted to ascertain the long term in situ catabolic abilities of the microbial communities in each soil and to establish the effects of litter mixing on decomposition rate. Litter bags containing either Genista aetnensis (Etnean Broom), Pinus nigra (Corsican Pine) or a mixture of the two were buried at each of the sites and their decomposition monitored over a 2.5 year period. PLFA diversity, community composition and function was assessed for each of the soils. The soils were also subject to a disturbance and the recovery of key community parameters was monitored over a six month period in order to establish each soil community’s resistance and resilience to disturbance. A laboratory experiment was conducted in order to investigate functional diversity and decomposition functions of each soil community using a range of simple and complex substrates. The relationship between PLFA diversity and functional diversity was also investigated. No correlation was found between soil C and N contents, microbial biomass or soil respiration and soil developmental stage and there was no detectable difference in litter bag mass loss between the soil types. No non- additive effects were noted in mixed litters. The more developed soil had a greater PLFA diversity and PLFA biomass however the more developed soil was not more resistant or resilient to disturbance. Developed soils showed greater catabolic diversity compared with less developed soils broadly correlating with PLFA diversity. Despite increased PLFA diversity and functional diversity in the more developed soils, residue decomposition in situ was unaffected. Reduced PLFA diversity and community complexity did not result in reduced function. Soils at different developmental stages had similar catabolic responses and were able to degrade simple and complex substrates to a similar degree. Microbial diversity in soil has the potential to be very high thus resulting in a high rate of functional redundancy i.e. many species within the same community which have the same functional role. It is possible that only a few key functional groups present within the soil community contribute to the main decomposition function within the soil and were able to maintain function during perturbation. Both Etna soils had similar PLFA’s present in similar concentrations and these groups in general were maintained during disturbance. This suggests that total microbial community diversity may not be as important to community function as the presence of key functional groups.
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Finnis, Kristen Kay, and n/a. "Resilience and vulnerability in communities around Mt Taranaki." University of Otago. Department of Geology, 2007. http://adt.otago.ac.nz./public/adt-NZDU20070503.100402.
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The aim of this thesis is to examine the resilience and vulnerability of Taranaki communities to volcanic hazards, and to propose a strategy to ensure the safety and longevity of Taranaki residents in the event of an eruption.
Mt Taranaki is a dormant volcano that is surrounded by a ring plain populated by over 100,000 people. The volcano has had an average eruptive cycle of 330 years, with the last eruption dated at ~1755 AD. Hazards include ash fall, lahars, debris avalanches and pyroclastic density currents. Inglewood, Stratford and Opunake are the largest population centres located in moderate to high hazard zones, and for this reason were chosen as the study communities.
Resilience is defined as the capacity to respond to a hazard event by physically and psychologically recovering, adapting to, or changing to similar or better conditions than those experienced before the event. Vulnerability is defined to be people�s incapacity to cope with a hazardous event as a result of their personal characteristics. A person�s vulnerability and resilience is influenced by demographic variables, socio-cognitive variables and preparedness.
Inglewood, Stratford and Opunake adults have good self-efficacy and action-coping use, fair risk perceptions, outcome expectancy and response efficacy, but poor understanding of event timing relative to eruption probability, critical awareness, preparedness and information-seeking intentions and preparedness levels. Preparedness is found to be influenced by residents� intentions to prepare, which in turn are influenced by critical awareness, action-coping and outcome expectancy.
Taranaki students have a fair awareness of hazard and knowledge of correct response behaviours to various hazards. Preparedness, in terms of preparedness measures undertaken, emergency plans made and emergency practices in place, is low. Students who have participated in hazard-education programmes have a better knowledge of response behaviours, lower levels of hazard-related fear, and reported higher level of preparedness.
Spatial analyses, carried out to determine the geographic distribution of at-risk groups within the study communities, showed that the areas most at-risk tend to be those with the highest population densities. The spatial analysis was not as beneficial as expected, due to small data sets, but did provide some results to be considered as a basis for further research.
Effective public education can be achieved when delivered to a set of guidelines, such as providing information regularly through multiple media and sources, ensuring consistent messages, targeting information to at-risk groups and monitoring programme effectiveness. Community capacity building projects decrease aspects of vulnerability and build resilience by working at a local scale and targeting at-risk groups. Psychological preparedness education helps citizens to mentally prepare for an event and should be a component of all projects.
The proposed strategy calls for (a) forming partnerships with relevant stakeholders to assist with public education, research, and funding, (b) further research into the characteristics of Taranaki communities and effective public education campaigns, (c) the development and implementation of a public education schedule and projects that build community capacity, and d) long-term planning, periodic revision of programmes and consistent public engagement.
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Kiuchi, Ryota. "New Ground Motion Prediction Equations for Saudi Arabia and their Application to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis." Kyoto University, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/253095.
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Graettinger, Alison Hollomon. "Depositional record of historic lahars in the Whangaehu Gorge, Mt. Ruapehu." The University of Waikato, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10289/2336.
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Mt. Ruapehu is one of the most lahar prone volcanoes in the world, having both a crater lake and six small glaciers upon its 2797 m summit. The major outlet for the crater lake, the Whangaehu Gorge, has hosted over 46 historic lahars. However, the low preservation of debris flow deposits, as a result of frequent remobilisation on steep slopes, allows for the detailed description of only 9 lahar events over the last 150 years. Field investigation, historic aerial photos, two airborne LiDAR surveys and direct measurements have been utilised to describe the sedimentology, geomorphology and distribution of historic lahar deposits in the first 11 km of the Whangaehu Gorge. Inundation maps have been created for 1945, 1953, 1975, September 1995, October 1995, March 2007 and September 2007. Grain size distribution, componentry and geomorphology of the 1861, 1975, September 1995, October 1995, 1999 and 2007 lahar deposits have been compared. The lahar deposits are massive, very poorly sorted, silty gravels that form a series of unconsolidated terraces. The limited sediment sources in the steep sided Whangaehu Gorge, including minor historic eruption products, results in significant recycling of lahar deposits. However, the deposits can be differentiated by proportions of lithological components and in some cases anthropogenic debris. The abundance of hydrothermally altered material reflects the role of Crater Lake in lahar formation, although, some of these materials (gypsum, sulphur and snow) are only temporary. Non-cohesive debris flows and occasional snow slurry lahars have been formed by a range of triggering mechanisms associated with and independent of eruptions. Lahars have been formed in the Whangaehu Valley as the result of ejected crater lake water and associated snow melt (1975, September 1995 and September 2007), as well as the progressive displacement of lake water as a result of lava dome growth (1945) and uplift of the lake floor (1968). Inter-eruption lahars occur as a result of Crater Lake outburst floods (1861, 1953 and March 2007) and remobilisation by precipitation and the collapse of tephra laden snow (October 1995 and 1999). The comparison of historic lahars also reflects the range of lahar magnitudes experienced historically on Ruapehu. The most recent Crater Lake outburst of March 2007, with a peak discharge of 1700-2500 m3/s is the second largest recorded lahar, behind only the eruption-generated lahar of April 1975 with a peak discharge of 5000-7500 m3/s. Lahar mitigation can subsequently be based on lahar generation and incorporation of the vast amounts of data collected before and after the 2007 outburst flood. Recent remobilisation and phreatic activity suggest the significant under-representation of small volume events like rain-generated and snow slurry lahars in the geologic record.
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Mashiko, Naoto. "Comparative performance of ductile and damage protected bridge piers subjected to bi-directional earthquake attack." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Civil Engineering, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/1159.
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Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) procedures are advanced and then applied to a quantitative risk assessment for bridge structures. This is achieved by combining IDA with site-dependent hazard-recurrence relations and damage outcomes. The IDA procedure is also developed as a way to select a critical earthquake motion record for a one-off destructive experiment. Three prototype bridge substructures are designed according to the loading and detailing requirements of New Zealand, Japan and Caltrans codes. From these designs 30 percent reduced scale specimens are constructed as part of an experimental investigation. The Pseudodynamic test is then to control on three specimens using the identified critical earthquake records. The results are presented in a probabilistic riskbased format. The differences in the seismic performance of the three different countries' design codes are examined. Each of these current seismic design codes strive for ductile behaviour of bridge substructures. Seismic response is expected to be resulting damage on structures, which may threaten post-earthquake serviceability. To overcome this major performance shortcoming, the seismic behaviour under bi-directional lateral loading is investigated for a bridge pier designed and constructed in accordance with Damage Avoidance principles. Due to the presence of steel armoured rocking interface at the base, it is demonstrated that damage can be avoided, but due to the lack of hysteresis it is necessary to add some supplemental damping. Experimental results of the armoured rocking pier under bi-directional loading are compared with a companion ductile design specimen.
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Kaye, G. D. "Volcanic hazard risk assessment for the RiskScape program, with test application in Rotorua, New Zealand, and Mammoth Lakes, USA : a thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Hazard and Disaster Management in the University of Canterbury /." 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/1950.
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Barnard, Scott Trevor. "The vulnerability of New Zealand lifelines infrastructure to ashfall : a thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Hazard and Disaster Management in the University of Canterbury /." 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/3688.
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Tsutsumi, Hiroyuki. "Evaluation of seismic hazards from the Median Tectonic Line, Japan and blind thrust faults in the Los Angeles metropolitan area, California /." 1996. http://hdl.handle.net/1957/9051.
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Longo, Bernadette Mae. "The Kilauea Volcano adult health study, Hawai'i, U.S.A." Thesis, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1957/29845.
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