Journal articles on the topic 'Volatility'
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Colin, Simanjuntak Ronald, and Febrio Nathan Kacaribu. "Pengaruh Volatilitas Makroekonomi terhadap Alokasi Kredit Bank." Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia 21, no. 2 (October 24, 2021): 257–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.21002/jepi.v21i2.1311.
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This study discusses the impact of macroeconomic volatility on bank credit allocation. The hypothesis built that macroeconomic volatility will influence banks to careful in issuing new loans. This study uses panel data with a sample of 10 banks using Baum model. This study uses the macroeconomic volatility as bebast variables. This study uses a generalized method of moment regression test to examine the relationship between dependent and bebast variables. The results of this study indicate negative relationship between inflation volatility and volatility in GDP growth with lending, whereas the volatility of exchange rate depreciation does not have effect on lending. ----------------------------------------------------- Penelitian ini membahas dampak volatilitas makroekonomi terhadap alokasi kredit bank. Hipotesis yang dibangun bahwa volatilitas makroekonomi akan memengaruhi bank bersikap hati-hati dalam menerbitkan kredit baru. Penelitian ini menggunakan data panel dengan sampel sepuluh bank dengan menggunakan Model Baum. Penelitian ini menggunakan volatilitas makro ekonomi sebagai variabel bebas. Penelitian ini menggunakan uji regresi generalized method of moment untuk meneliti hubungan antara variabel dependen dan bebas. Hasil dari penilitian ini menunjukkan adanya hubungan negatif antara volatilitas inflasi dan volatilitas pertumbuhan GDP dengan penyaluran kredit, sedangkan untuk volatilitas depresiasi nilai tukar tidak memiliki pengaruh terhadap penyaluran kredit.
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Astuti, Tri, Sri Ambarwati, and Myranda Shavira. "DETERMINAN VOLATILITAS HARGA SAHAM." RELEVAN : Jurnal Riset Akuntansi 1, no. 2 (May 31, 2021): 73–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.35814/relevan.v1i2.2262.
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Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji secara empiris pengaruh kebijakan dividend, leverage, ukuran perusahaan, dan earning volatility terhadap volatilitas harga saham pada perusahaan manufaktur yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia selama 2016-2018. Sampel diperoleh menggunakan metode sampel purposive sampling. Sampel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini sebanyak 18 perusahaan manufaktur. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan menggunakan analisis regresi linear berganda. Berdasarkan hasil uji t, kebijakan dividend dan leverage tidak berpengaruh pada volatilitas harga saham, ukuran perusahaan berpengaruh positif, dan earning volatility berpengaruh negatif terhadap volatilitas harga saham. Dari hasil uji F, secara simultan kebijakan dividend, leverage, ukuran perusahaan, dan earning volatility berpengaruh terhadap volatilitas harga saham. Hasil uji koefisien determinasi menunjukkan, variabel kebijakan dividend, leverage, ukuran perusahaan, dan earning volatility memberikan pengaruh sebesar 39,69% dan sisanya dipengaruhi oleh variabel lain di luar model penelitian ini.
Kata kunci: Kebijakan Dividend, Leverage, Ukuran Perusahaan, Earning Volatility, dan Volatilitas Harga Saham
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Ayuning Putri, Anisa Ferata. "FAKTOR-FAKTOR PENENTU VOLATILITAS HARGA SAHAM SEKTOR PERUSAHAAN PROPERTI, REAL ESTATE DAN BUILDING CONSTRUCTION." Jurnal Akuntansi dan Keuangan 8, no. 2 (September 2, 2020): 109. http://dx.doi.org/10.29103/jak.v8i2.2563.
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Abstrak : Tujuan dari riset ini adalah untuk melihat pengaruh Devidend Payout Ratio, Devidend Yield, Earning Volatility, Pertumbuhan Aset, Leverage, Ukuran Perusahaan dan Blockholders terhadap Volatilitas Harga Saham. Pada penelitian ini akan menggunakan data laporan Perusahaan Lembaga Keuangan dari Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) selama periode 2016-2018 dengan populasi sebanyak 201 perusahaan metode purposive sampling digunakan untuk memperoleh sampel selama 3 tahun sebayak 36 perusahaan. Data penelitian ini di analisis menggunaka analisis regresi linier berganda. Hasil analisis ditemukan bahwa Dividen Payout Ratio, Earning Volatility, Pertumbuhan Aset, Ukuran Perusahaan, Blockholdres tidak berpengaruh terhadap Volatilitas Harga Saham Sedangkan untuk variabel Dividen Yield berpengaruh terhadap Volatilitas Harga Saham.Kata kunci : Volatilitas Harga Saham, Dividen Payout Ratio, Dividen Yield, Earning Volatility, Pertumbuhan Aset, Ukuran Perusahaan, Blockholdres Abstrack : The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of Dividend Payment Ratio, Dividend Results, Productive Volatility, Estimated Assets, Leverage, Firm Size and Blockholders on Stock Price Volatility. In this study will use the report data of Financial Institution Companies from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) during the 2016-2018 period with a population of 201 companies using a purposive sampling method for a 3-year sample of 36 companies. The data of this study were analyzed using multiple linear regression analysis. The results of the analysis found that Dividend Payment Ratios, Income Volatility, Assets, Company Size, Blockholdres are not in conflict with Stock Price Volatility While for the Result Dividend variable produced on Stock Price Volatility. Keywords: Stock Price Volatility, Dividend Payout Ratio, Yield Dividend, Income Volatility, Asset Inventory, Firm Size, Blockholding
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Ferina, Mahmudah Wulan, and Sunarto Sunarto. "Pengaruh Kebijakan Dividen, Leverage, Volume Perdagangan Saham Terhadap Volatilitas Harga Saham." Journal of Economic, Bussines and Accounting (COSTING) 7, no. 3 (February 3, 2024): 4154–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.31539/costing.v7i3.8632.
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The difference in a company's share price over a certain period of time is known as volatility of share price. A company's volatility is a mirroring of the opportunities and dangers that investors may face. Investors need to pay attention to indicators such as number of trades, leverage, and dividend policy which can impact share price volatility. This research purposes to look at the variables that effected the level of stock price volatility. Issuers listed on the BEI LQ45 index in 2018-2022 are the research population. Purposive sampling was applied to select the research sample with 168 issuers. Hypothesis testing is calculated through multiple regression analysis. The findings of the analysis model explain that (1) Dividend policy has a important and positive effect on the company's volatility value. (2) Leverage has no influence on share price volatility. (3) Trading volume has no influence on share price volatility. This provides an grasp of the low and high levels of dividend policy variables which can have an influence on understanding the level of share price volatility.Keywords: price volatility, dividend payout ratio (DPR), debt to equity ratio (DER), and trading volume activity (TVA).
ABSTRAK
Perbedaan harga saham perusahaan pada kurun waktu tertentu dikenal sebagai volatilitas harga saham. Volatilitas perusahaan adalah cerminan peluang dan bahaya yang mungkin dihadapi investor. Investor perlu memperhatikan indikator-indikator seperti jumlah perdagangan, leverage, dan kebijakan dividen yang memberikan dampak akan volatilitas harga saham. Penelitian ini memiliki tujuan melihat berbagai variabel yang berpengaruh pada tingkat volatilitas harga saham. Emiten yang tercatat pada indeks LQ45 BEI pada tahun 2018-2022 menjadi populasi penelitian. Purposive sampling diaplikasikan untuk memilih sampel, yang akhirnya 168 emiten menjadi sampel penelitian. Uji hipotesis dihitung melalui analisis regresi berganda. Temuan model penelitian menjelaskan bahwasanya (1) Kebijakan dividen memberikan pengaruh secara signifikan dan positif dengan nilai volatilitas perusahaan. (2) Leverage tidak memberikan pengaruh kepada volatilitas harga saham. (3) Volume perdagangan tidak memberikan pengaruh kepada volatilitas harga saham. Hal ini memberikan pemahaman tinggi rendahnya variabel kebijakan dividen mampu memberikan pengaruh akan pemahaman tingkat volatilitas harga saham.
Kata kunci : Volatilitas harga saham, Dividend Pay Ratio (DPR), Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), Trading Volume Activity (TVA)
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Danial, Rahmadiva Dianitha, and Brady Rikumahu. "PENGARUH VOLATILITAS NILAI TUKAR, IDR-USD TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA: PENERAPAN MODEL GARCH." Jurnal Riset Akuntansi dan Keuangan 14, no. 2 (July 16, 2019): 95. http://dx.doi.org/10.21460/jrak.2018.142.327.
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Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji pengaruh volatilitas return nilai Kurs IDR-USD terhadap volatilitas return pasar saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Dari pengambilan data sekunder dari 3 Januari 2012 hingga 29 September 2017 diperoleh data time series sebanyak 1404 hari. Data dianalisis dengan model GARCH dan Uji Granger Causality. Berdasarkan hasil permodelan GARCH(1,1), volatilitas kurs mempengaruhi volatilitas IHSG. Uji Granger Causality menunjukkan bahwa volatilitas kurs dan IHSG memiliki hubungan yang kausal dua arah. Penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa informasi kurs dapat memprediksikan kondisi harga indeks saham di pasar modal di periode hari berikutnya, begitupun sebaliknya. Prediksi tepat yang dilakukan oleh investor akan mengurangi risiko dan meningkatkan imbal hasil dalam berinvestasi jika pasar uang maupun pasar modal yang sedang bergejolak. Kata Kunci: GARCH, Volatilitas, IHSG, Nilai Tukar ABSTRACT This study aims to examine the effect of the volatility of the return on the IDR-USD exchange rate toward the volatility of stock market returns in the Indonesia Stock Exchange. From the data collection from 3 January 2012 until 29 September 2017 we obtained 1404 time series. Analyzing data, this study used GARCH modeling and Granger Causality Test. The selected GARCH (1,1) modeling result shows that the volatility of exchange rate influences the volatility of Indonesian Composite Index. Granger Causality test shows that the volatility of exchange rate and volatility of Indonesian Composite Index have two-way granger cause. This study indicates that exchange rate information can predict the condition of stock price index in capital market and movement of Indonesian Composite Index (ICI) can predict exchange rate movement in foreign exchange market. Appropriate predictions by investors will reduce the risk and increase the yield in investing if the money market and capital markets are fluctuating high. Keywords: GARCH, Volatility, ICI, Exchange Rate
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Hidayati, Nurul, and Puji Sucia Sukmaningrum. "FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI VOLATILITAS HARGA SAHAM PADA EMITEN YANG TERDAFTAR DI JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEX." Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah Teori dan Terapan 8, no. 6 (December 5, 2021): 706. http://dx.doi.org/10.20473/vol8iss20216pp706-713.
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ABSTRAKTujuan dari penelitian ini yaitu meneliti pengaruh kebijakan dividen, volume perdagangan, volatilitas laba, ukuran perusahaan dan tingkat hutang terhadap volatilitas harga saham di emiten yang terdaftar di JII dari tahun 2015 sampai 2019. Adapun manfaat dari penelitian ini dalam eksistensi pasar finansial secara global karena dapat mengukur tingkat risiko. Penelitian ini dibantu dengan alat analisis Eviews 10. Regresi data panel dipilih dalam penelitian ini. Hasil penelitian membuktikan bahwa secara individual dividend payout ratio, volume perdagangan dan volatilitas laba secara positif memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan, ukuran perusahaan secara negatif memiliki pengaruh signifikan, dan tingkat hutang tidak memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap volatilitas harga saham. Secara simultan, variabel dividend payout ratio, volume perdagangan, ukuran perusahaan, volatilitas laba, dan tingkat hutang signifikan berpengaruh terhadap volatilitas harga saham. Kata Kunci: Volatilitas harga saham, emiten syariah, regresi data panel. ABSTRACTThe purpose of this study is to examine the effect of dividend policy, trading volume, earnings volatility, company size and level of debt on stock price volatility in issuers listed in JII from 2015 to 2019. The benefits of this research are in the existence of global financial markets because it can measure the level of risk. This research is assisted by the analysis tool Eviews 10. Panel data regression. selected in this study. The results showed that partially the dividend payout ratio, trading volume and earnings volatility had a positive and significant effect, company size had a negative and significant effect, and the level of debt had no significant effect on stock price volatility. Simultaneously, the variable dividend payout ratio, trading volume, company size, earnings volatility, and level of debt have a significant effect on stock price volatility. Keywords: Stock price volatility, sharia company, panel data regression. DAFTAR PUSTAKABawono, A., & Shina, A. F. I. (2018). Ekonometrika terapan untuk ekonomi dan bisnis Islam aplikasi dengan Eviews. Salatiga: Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat (LP2M) IAIN Salatiga Press.Brigham, E. F., & Houston, J. F. (2011). Dasar-dasar manajemen keuangan, buku kedua. Jakarta: Salemba Empat.Camilleri, S. J., Grima, L., & Grima, S. (2019). The effect of dividend policy on share price volatility: an analysis of Mediterranean banks’ stocks. Managerial Finance, 45(2), 348–364. https://doi.org/10.1108/MF-11-2017-0451Dewi, S., & Paramita, R. A. S. (2019). Pengaruh kebijakan dividen, volume perdagangan, earning volatility, leverage, dan firm size terhadap volatilitas harga saham perusahaan LQ45. Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen, 7(3), 761–771.Fakhruddin, H. M. (2008). Istilah pasar modal A-Z. Jakarta: Elex Media Komputindo.Gumanti, T. A. (2013). Kebijakan Dividen (Pertama). UPP STIM YKPN.Jahfer, A., & Mulafara, A. H. (2016). Dividend policy and share price volatility: Evidence from Colombo stock market. Internaltional Journal Managerial and Financial Accounting, 8(2), 97–108. DOI:10.1504/IJMFA.2016.077947Jannah, R., & Haridhi, M. (2016). Pengaruh kebijakan dividen, earning volatility, dan leverage terhadap volatilitas harga saham pada perusahaan non-financing yang terdaftar di bursa efek Indonesia tahun 2010-2014. Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Ekonomi Akuntansi, 1(1), 133–148.Mehmood, A., Ullah, M. H., & Ul Sabeeh, N. (2019). Determinants of stock price volatility: Evidence from cement industry. Accounting, 5(4), 145–152. https://doi.org/10.5267/j.ac.2019.2.002Muhamad. (2016). Manajemen keuangan syari’ah analisis fiqh & keuangan. Yogyakarta: UPP STIM YKPN.Novius, A. (2017). Analisis pengaruh kebijakan deviden ( Dividen payout ratio dan devidend yield) terhadap volatilitas harga saham (Studi empiris pada perusahaan kelompok LQ45 yang terdaftar di BEI). Jurnal Al-Iqtishad, 13(1), 67. https://doi.org/10.24014/jiq.v13i1.4389Rowena, J., & Hendra. (2017). Earnings volatility, kebijakan dividen, dan pertumbuhan asset berpengaruh terhadap volatilitas harga saham pada perusahaan manufaktur di BEI periode 2013 – 2015. Jurnal Administrasi Kantor, 5(2), 231–242.Sarmanu. (2017). Dasar metodologi penelitian. Surabaya: Airlangga University Press.Septyadi, M. A., & Bwarleling, T. H. (2020). Pengaruh volume perdagangan saham, leverage, dan kebijakan dividen terhadap volatilitas harga saham, 2, 149–162.Shah, S. A., & Noreen, U. (2016). Stock price volatility and role of dividend policy: Empirical evidence from Pakistan. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 6(2), 461–472.Spence. (1973). Job market signaling. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 87(3), 355–374. https://doi.org/10.2307/1882010Tandelilin, E. (2010). Manajemen portofolio dan investasi. Surabaya: Kanisius.Yulinda, E., Pujiastuti, T., & Haryono, S. (2020). Analisis pengaruh dividend payout ratio, leverage, firm size, volume perdagangan, earning volatility, dan inflasi terhadap volatilitas harga saham pada perusahaan yang terdaftar dalam indeks LQ45 tahun 2014-2017. Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia Ilmiah Indonesia, 5(5), 76. DOI:10.36418/syntax-literate.v5i5.1106Zainudin, R., Mahdzan, N. S., & Yet, C. H. (2018). Dividend policy and stock price volatility of industrial products firms in Malaysia. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 13(1), 203–217. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJoEM-09-2016-0250
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Blanco, Belen. "Capturing the volatility smile: parametric volatility models versus stochastic volatility models." Public and Municipal Finance 5, no. 4 (December 26, 2016): 15–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/pmf.05(4).2016.02.
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Black-Scholes option pricing model (1973) assumes that all option prices on the same underlying asset with the same expiration date, but different exercise prices should have the same implied volatility. However, instead of a flat implied volatility structure, implied volatility (inverting the Black-Scholes formula) shows a smile shape across strikes and time to maturity. This paper compares parametric volatility models with stochastic volatility models in capturing this volatility smile. Results show empirical evidence in favor of parametric volatility models. Keywords: smile volatility, parametric, stochastic, Black-Scholes. JEL Classification: C14 C68 G12 G13
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Pírko, Štěpán. "Investice do volatility jako odpověď na nízké výnosy." Socio-Economic and Humanities Studies 7, no. 1 (June 3, 2018): 125–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.61357/sehs.v7i1.74.
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Pokles úrokových sazeb na historicky nejnižší úrovně se během posledních let stal klíčovým problémem řady investorů. Jednou z alternativ, jak v takové nestandardní době dosahovat výnos, je využít investiční strategie orientované na obchodování s volatilitou. Řada publikovaných studií dokládá, že ceny opcí jsou dlouhodobě vyšší, než odpovídá skutečné volatilitě podkladových aktiv, zejména akciových indexů, což vytváří prostor pro dosažení zisku využitím opcí a dalších investičních nástrojů. Závěry studií, sestrojené indexy i skutečná výkonnost portfolií založených na výše uvedeném principu prokazují, že prostor pro ziskové investiční strategie může být trvalý a je založen na ekonomických zákonitostech vyplývajících z chování investorů. Investiční strategie založené na investování do volatility tak mohou, i přes řadu rizikových faktorů, obohatit výnos portfolia tradičních cenných papírů.
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Mahatma, Yudi, and Ibnu Hadi. "Stochastic Volatility Estimation of Stock Prices using the Ensemble Kalman Filter." InPrime: Indonesian Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics 3, no. 2 (November 10, 2021): 136–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.15408/inprime.v3i2.20256.
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AbstractVolatility plays important role in options trading. In their seminal paper published in 1973, Black and Scholes assume that the stock price volatility, which is the underlying security volatility of a call option, is constant. But thereafter, researchers found that the return volatility was not constant but conditional to the information set available at the computation time. In this research, we improve a methodology to estimate volatility and interest rate using Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). The price of call and put option used in the observation and the forecasting step of the EnKF algorithm computed using the solution of Black-Scholes PDE. The state-space used in this method is the augmented state space, which consists of static variables: volatility and interest rate, and dynamic variables: call and put option price. The numerical experiment shows that the EnKF algorithm is able to estimate accurately the estimated volatility and interest rates with an RMSE value of 0.0506.Keywords: stochastic volatility; call option; put option; Ensemble Kalman Filter. AbstrakVolatilitas adalah faktor penting dalam perdagangan suatu opsi. Dalam makalahnya yang dipublikasikan tahun 1973, Black dan Scholes mengasumsikan bahwa volatilitas harga saham, yang merupakan volatilitas sekuritas yang mendasari opsi beli, adalah konstan. Akan tetapi, para peneliti menemukan bahwa volatilitas pengembalian tidaklah konstan melainkan tergantung pada kumpulan informasi yang dapat digunakan pada saat perhitungan. Pada penelitian ini dikembangkan metodologi untuk mengestimasi volatilitas dan suku bunga menggunakan metode Ensembel Kalman Filter (EnKF). Harga opsi beli dan opsi jual yang digunakan pada observasi dan pada tahap prakiraan pada algoritma EnKF dihitung menggunakan solusi persamaan Black-Scholes. Ruang keadaan yang digunakan adalah ruang keadaan yang diperluas yang terdiri dari variabel statis yaitu volatilitas dan suku bunga, dan variabel dinamis yaitu harga opsi beli dan harga opsi jual. Eksperimen numerik menunjukkan bahwa algoritma ENKF dapat secara akurat mengestimasi volatiltas dan suku bunga dengan RMSE 0.0506.Kata kunci: volatilitas stokastik; opsi beli; opsi jual; Ensembel Kalman Filter.
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Nugrahapsari, Rizka Amalia, and Idha Widi Arsanti. "Analisis Volatilitas Harga Cabai Keriting di Indonesia dengan Pendekatan ARCH GARCH." Jurnal Agro Ekonomi 36, no. 1 (September 18, 2018): 25. http://dx.doi.org/10.21082/jae.v36n1.2018.25-37.
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<strong>English</strong><br />Chili includes a strategic commodity in Indonesia because of its high price volatility that makes it a major determinant of national inflation dynamics. The government always tries to improve its capability in implementing the chili price stabilization policy. The objective of the study is to assess the volatility of curly chili price volatility in Indonesia by using the ARCH GARCH approach with daily price data of January 2011 to December 2015. The results showed that the right model to calculate chili price volatility is ARCH (1). The price volatility was low and price movement was only influenced by the volatility in the previous day, not by the price variant, so the chili price volatility in the future will be smaller. Low volatility indicates that demand and supply characteristics were predictable. Price changes gradually and predictable. Farmers’ protection policy through import restrictions improves stability of domestic supply. The policy reduces the risk of drastic decline in prices due to imported chili, so the price volatility of chili in the period 2011–2015 was lower than the previous period. However, the seasonal price variation remains. Therefore, the policy should be supported with all season chili availability assurance.<br /><br /><br /><strong>Indonesian</strong><br />Cabai termasuk komoditas strategis di Indonesia karena harganya volatil sehingga menjadi salah satu penentu utama dinamika inflasi nasional. Untuk itu, pemerintah senantiasa berusaha meningkatkan kemampuannya dalam melaksanakan kebijakan stabilisasi harga cabai. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji volatilitas harga cabai keriting di Indonesia dengan pendekatan ARCH GARCH dan data harga harian cabai keriting periode Januari 2011 hingga Desember 2015. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model yang tepat untuk menghitung volatilitas harga cabai keriting adalah ARCH(1). Hasil pendugaan model menunjukkan volatilitas harga cabai keriting rendah dan pergerakan harga hanya dipengaruhi oleh volatilitas pada satu hari sebelumnya, tidak dipengaruhi varian harga, sehingga diperkirakan volatilitas harga cabai keriting di masa datang akan semakin kecil. Volatilitas yang rendah menunjukkan karakteristik waktu permintaan dan penawaran cabai keriting dapat diprediksi. Perubahan harga terjadi bertahap dan dapat diperkirakan. Kebijakan perlindungan petani melalui pembatasan impor cabai menyebabkan penyediaan cabai di dalam negeri menjadi lebih stabil. Kebijakan ini mengurangi risiko penurunan harga secara drastis akibat masuknya cabai impor, sehingga volatilitas harga cabai pada periode 2011–2015 lebih rendah dibandingkan periode sebelumnya. Namun, masih terdapat variasi harga musiman. Oleh karena itu, kebijakan ini perlu diperkuat dengan upaya jaminan sediaan cabai sepanjang musim.
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Afdil Malik Ibrohim, Darmansyah, and Muhammad Yusuf. "Persistensi Laba Dimediasi Corporate Social Responsibility Pada Perusahaan Manufaktur Sektor Insustri Konsumsi Makanan Dan Minuman Di Bursa Efek Indonesia." Jurnal Riset Akuntansi & Perpajakan (JRAP) 6, no. 02 (December 31, 2019): 91–110. http://dx.doi.org/10.35838/jrap.2019.006.02.20.
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ABSTRACT
This research is aimed to examine andfind out empirical evidence o f the influence o f Cash Flow Volatility, Sales Volatility, Leverage, Firm size, Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) on earnings persistence and the influence o f Cash Flow Volatility, Sales Volatility, Leverage, Firm size on earnings persistence when mediated by Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) in manufacturing companies consumer goods industry sectors food and beverages listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange period 2011-2015. The sampling method used is purposive sampling, of the population of in manufacturing companies consumer goods industry sectors food and beverages that exist, would have taken some samples were selected based on certain criteria. Data were tested by means of the classic assumption by using multiple regression analysis techniques (multiple regression) using SPSS 22 for windows. The results show that Cash Flow Volatility, Sales Volatility, Firm size, Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) partially have no influence significant on Earning persistence. Leverage has significant effect to earnings persistence. Cash Flow Volatility on earnings persistence when mediated by Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) have significant effect. Sales Volatility, Firm size, Leverage on earnings persistence when mediated by Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) have not significant effect. The tests are based on a confidence level of 95%, and an error rate of 5%.
ABSTRAK
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji dan mengisi bukti empiris pengaruh Volatilitas Arus Kas, Volatilitas Penjualan, Leverage, Ukuran Perusahaan, Tanggung Jawab Sosial Perusahaan (CSR) terhadap persistensi laba dan pengaruh Volatilitas Arus Kas, Volatilitas Penjualan, Leverage, Perusahaan ukuran pada persistensi pendapatan ketika dimediasi oleh Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) di perusahaan manufaktur sektor industri barang konsumsi makanan dan minuman yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia periode 2011-2015. Metode pengambilan sampel yang digunakan adalah purposive sampling, dari populasi perusahaan manufaktur sektor industri barang konsumsi makanan dan minuman yang ada, pasti diambil beberapa sampel yang dipilih berdasarkan kriteria tertentu. Data diuji dengan menggunakan asumsi klasik dengan menggunakan teknik analisis regresi berganda (multiple regression) menggunakan SPSS 22 for windows. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Volatilitas Arus Kas, Volatilitas Penjualan, ukuran Perusahaan, Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) secara parsial tidak memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap Earning Persistence. Leverage berpengaruh signifikan terhadap persistensi laba. Volatilitas Arus Kas terhadap persistensi laba ketika dimediasi oleh Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan. Volatilitas Penjualan, ukuran Perusahaan, Leverage pada persistensi laba ketika dimediasi oleh Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) tidak memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan. Tes didasarkan pada tingkat kepercayaan 95%, dan tingkat kesalahan 5%.
JEL Classification: Q56, M41
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Afdil Malik Ibrohim, Darmansyah, and Muhammad Yusuf. "Persistensi Laba Dimediasi Corporate Social Responsibility Pada Perusahaan Manufaktur Sektor Insustri Konsumsi Makanan Dan Minuman Di Bursa Efek Indonesia." Jurnal Riset Akuntansi & Perpajakan (JRAP) 6, no. 02 (December 31, 2019): 91–110. http://dx.doi.org/10.35838/jrap.v6i02.1248.
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ABSTRACT
This research is aimed to examine andfind out empirical evidence o f the influence o f Cash Flow Volatility, Sales Volatility, Leverage, Firm size, Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) on earnings persistence and the influence o f Cash Flow Volatility, Sales Volatility, Leverage, Firm size on earnings persistence when mediated by Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) in manufacturing companies consumer goods industry sectors food and beverages listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange period 2011-2015. The sampling method used is purposive sampling, of the population of in manufacturing companies consumer goods industry sectors food and beverages that exist, would have taken some samples were selected based on certain criteria. Data were tested by means of the classic assumption by using multiple regression analysis techniques (multiple regression) using SPSS 22 for windows. The results show that Cash Flow Volatility, Sales Volatility, Firm size, Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) partially have no influence significant on Earning persistence. Leverage has significant effect to earnings persistence. Cash Flow Volatility on earnings persistence when mediated by Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) have significant effect. Sales Volatility, Firm size, Leverage on earnings persistence when mediated by Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) have not significant effect. The tests are based on a confidence level of 95%, and an error rate of 5%.
ABSTRAK
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji dan mengisi bukti empiris pengaruh Volatilitas Arus Kas, Volatilitas Penjualan, Leverage, Ukuran Perusahaan, Tanggung Jawab Sosial Perusahaan (CSR) terhadap persistensi laba dan pengaruh Volatilitas Arus Kas, Volatilitas Penjualan, Leverage, Perusahaan ukuran pada persistensi pendapatan ketika dimediasi oleh Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) di perusahaan manufaktur sektor industri barang konsumsi makanan dan minuman yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia periode 2011-2015. Metode pengambilan sampel yang digunakan adalah purposive sampling, dari populasi perusahaan manufaktur sektor industri barang konsumsi makanan dan minuman yang ada, pasti diambil beberapa sampel yang dipilih berdasarkan kriteria tertentu. Data diuji dengan menggunakan asumsi klasik dengan menggunakan teknik analisis regresi berganda (multiple regression) menggunakan SPSS 22 for windows. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Volatilitas Arus Kas, Volatilitas Penjualan, ukuran Perusahaan, Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) secara parsial tidak memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap Earning Persistence. Leverage berpengaruh signifikan terhadap persistensi laba. Volatilitas Arus Kas terhadap persistensi laba ketika dimediasi oleh Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan. Volatilitas Penjualan, ukuran Perusahaan, Leverage pada persistensi laba ketika dimediasi oleh Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) tidak memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan. Tes didasarkan pada tingkat kepercayaan 95%, dan tingkat kesalahan 5%.
JEL Classification: Q56, M41
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Vahlevi, T. Muhd Redha, and Harjum Muharam. "Quantitative Easing Program and Financial Market Volatility in Indonesia." JEJAK 10, no. 1 (March 10, 2017): 80–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.15294/jejak.v10i1.9128.
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This research aims to examine the impact of the USD money supply during and before quantitative easing program towards financial market volatility in Indonesia which is proxied by variance of financial market index such as IHSG, Gold Price in IDR, and Exchange Rate IDR/USD to find out the effect of the excess USD money supply on Indonesias financial market volatility. This reseacrh has used monthly time series data of M1 of USD, IHSG, IDR/USD Exchange Rate, and Gold Price from December 2008 to December 2013. TGACRH in this research is used to find out wheter the volatility or variance at previous time affects volatility of these financial market index at present time and assymetric information is exist in the financial market index. The result showed that theres a difference between the effect of USD money supply to financial market index volatility in Indonesia during QE program and before QE program. Before and during QE program, USD money supply positively affects IDR/USD exchange rate volatiliy and IHSG volatility and negatively affects Gold Price volatility. During QE program, USD money supply negatively affects volatility of IDR/USD exchange rate and IHSG, and positively affects Gold Price volatility.
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Sari, Linda Karlina, Noer Azam Achsani, and Bagus Sartono. "Pemodelan Volatilitas Return Saham: Studi Kasus Pasar Saham Asia." Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia 18, no. 1 (July 1, 2017): 35–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.21002/jepi.v18i1.717.
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Modelling Volatility of Return Stock Index: Evidence from Asian CountriesVolatility is one of the interesting phenomenon in financial market; the reason is because of its eect to the existence of global financial market. The existence of volatility closely related to the risk in stock model. This research aims to determine the right model in modeling stock return volatility taken from four Asian countries with symmetric and various asymmetric model of GARCH. The result from fitting the right model for all of four stock markets showed that asymmetric model of GARCH showing a better estimation in portraying stock return volatility. Moreover, the model can reveal the existence of asymmetric eects on those four stock markets.Keywords: GARCH Asymmetric; Stock Market; Modelling; GARCH Symmetry; Volatility AbstrakVolatilitas pada pasar keuangan merupakan salah satu fenomena yang sangat menarik karena dampaknya terhadap eksistensi pasar finansial global. Keberadaan volatilitas berhubungan dengan risiko sebuah. Tulisan ini bertujuan menentukan model terbaik dalam memodelkan volatilitas return saham pada empat negara di Asia dengan menggunakan model simetris GARCH dan berbagai macam model asimetris GARCH. Hasil dari fitting model terbaik untuk keempat pasar saham menunjukkan bahwa model asimetris GARCH menunjukkan estimasi yang lebih baik dalam menggambarkan volatilitas return saham. Lebih jauh lagi, model tersebut mengungkapkan keberadaan efek asimetris pada keempat pasar saham.
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Juwita*, Ratna, Dewi Melinia Ramadhani, and Anis Wahyu Intan Maris. "The Determinants of Cryptocurrency Returns." Jurnal Ilmu Keuangan dan Perbankan (JIKA) 12, no. 2 (June 27, 2023): 235–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.34010/jika.v12i2.9461.
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This study examines the determinants of cryptocurrency returns, namely Trading Volume, Price Volatility, and Market Capitalization. This study uses Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, USD Coin, and BNB, which are the Top 5 largest Cryptocurrency Market Capitalizations in 2022. The testing method used in this study is a panel data regression analysis. The results of this study prove that Trading Volume and Price Volatility have a significant and positive effect on Cryptocurrency Returns. In contrast, Market Capitalization does not substantially impact Cryptocurrency Returns. If investors want to earn high returns, then it is advisable to choose cryptocurrencies with high trading volume and high price volatility. But keep in mind, with high price volatility can also mean a greater risk of the coin.
Keywords: Cryptocurrency; Trading Volume; Price Volatility; Market Capitalization; Return
Abstrak
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji berbagai factor penentu imbal hasil cryptocurrency yaitu Volume Perdagangan, Volatilitas Harga dan Market Capitalization. Studi ini menggunakan Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, USD Coin, dan BNB yang merupakan Top 5 Market Capitalization Cryptocurrency terbesar tahun 2022. Metode pengujian yang dilakukan dalam penelitian ini yaitu uji analisis regresi data panel. Hasil dari penelitian ini membuktikan bahwa Volume Perdagangan dan Volatilitas Harga berpengaruh signifikan dan positif terhadap Return Cryptocurrency, sedangkan Market Capitalization tidak memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap Return Cryptocurrency. Jika investor ingin mendapatkan return yang tinngi, maka disarankan untuk memilih cryptocurrency yang memiliki Volume Perdagangan dan Volatilitas Harga yang tinggi. Namun yang perlu diingat adalah, dengan tingginya Volatilitas Harga berarti pula tingginya risiko koin crypto tersebut.
Kata Kunci: Mata uang kripto; Volume Perdagangan; Volatilitas Harga; Kapitalisasi pasar; Pengembalian
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Setiawan, Rahmat, and Rr Alvita Aulia Nareswari. "Volatilitas Arus Kas terhadap Kredit Perdagangan dengan Ukuran Perusahaan sebagai Variabel Moderasi." MBIA 22, no. 3 (December 8, 2023): 340–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.33557/mbia.v22i3.2489.
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This study aims to determine the effect of cash flow volatility on trade credit and whether firm size moderates the influence of cash flow volatility on trade credit. This study has a 129 sample with 589 observation manufacturing companies in Indonesia listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in the 2016-2020 period. The sampling method used is purposive sampling, and the analytical method used is Multiple Linear Regression Analysis and Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA). The results of this study indicate that cash flow volatility has a significant negative effect on trade credit, and firm size significantly weakened the influence of cash flow volatility on trade credit. The control variable in this study, leverage, does not affect trade credit; sales growth has a positive effect on trade credit, and days sales in inventory have a negative effect on trade credit. Keywords: Trade Credit, Cash Flow Volatility, Firm Size Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh volatilitas arus kas terhadap kredit perdagangan dan apakah ukuran perusahaan memoderasi pengaruh volatilitas arus kas terhadap kredit perdagangan. Penelitian ini menggunakan 129 sampel dengan 589 observasi perusahaan manufaktur di Indonesia yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) periode 2016-2020. Pemilihan sampel menggunakan metode purposive sampling. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah analisis regresi linear berganda dan regresi moderasi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan volatilitas arus kas berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap kredit perdagangan dan ukuran perusahaan secara signifikan memperlemah pengaruh volatilitas arus kas terhadap kredit perdagangan. Variabel kontrol pada penelitian ini yaitu leverage tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kredit perdagangan, sales growth berpengaruh positif terhadap kredit perdagangan, dan days sales in inventory berpengaruh negatif terhadap kredit perdagangan. Kata kunci: Kredit Perdagangan, Volatilitas Arus Kas, Ukuran Perusahaan
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Liu, Bingqi. "Volatility, Uncertainty, and Option Pricing." Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences 66, no. 1 (January 5, 2024): 108–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.54254/2754-1169/66/20241213.
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Amidst global and Chinese uncertainties, this paper delves into stock market volatility and option pricing within the current economic policy context. Focusing on China's stock market, it calculates returns and volatility changes in key indices, analyzing differences among indices and funds, along with temporal variations. Shared data characteristics and reflections on new market trends emerge. Employing methods such as the GARCH model, Black-Scholes formula, and Monte Carlo algorithm, it analyzes volatility and option pricing using extensive annual and monthly data. Visualizations showcase market change patterns. The study defines volatility as a measure of financial asset price fluctuation extent, reflecting asset risk. Higher volatility indicates pronounced price fluctuations and uncertainty, while lower volatility signifies smoother fluctuations and greater certainty. Merging data with volatility's significance, the study probes China's securities market uncertainty, investigating the link between option pricing and volatility. It concludes by identifying the connection between volatility, uncertainty, and option pricing, pointing to future research directions and challenges. Future work will track the latest market trends to enrich understanding.
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RAHAYUNI, IDA AYU EGA, KOMANG DHARMAWAN, and LUH PUTU IDA HARINI. "PERBANDINGAN KEEFISIENAN METODE NEWTON-RAPHSON, METODE SECANT, DAN METODE BISECTION DALAM MENGESTIMASI IMPLIED VOLATILITIES SAHAM." E-Jurnal Matematika 5, no. 1 (January 30, 2016): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.24843/mtk.2016.v05.i01.p113.
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Black-Scholes model suggests that volatility is constant or fixed during the life time of the option certainly known. However, this does not fit with what happen in the real market. Therefore, the volatility has to be estimated. Implied Volatility is the etimated volatility from a market mechanism that is considered as a reasonable way to assess the volatility's value. This study was aimed to compare the Newton-Raphson, Secant, and Bisection method, in estimating the stock volatility value of PT Telkom Indonesia Tbk (TLK). It found that the three methods have the same Implied Volatilities, where Newton-Raphson method gained roots more rapidly than the two others, and it has the smallest relative error greater than Secant and Bisection methods.
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Khairiyah, Marsella, and Sri Trisnaningsih. "Pengaruh Kinerja Keuangan, Earning Volatility, Dan Growth Opportunity Terhadap Volatilitas Harga Saham (Studi Empiris Perusahaan Sektor Energi Yang Terdaftar Di BEI Tahun 2019-2022)." Journal of Economic, Bussines and Accounting (COSTING) 7, no. 4 (June 30, 2024): 9720–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.31539/costing.v7i4.9865.
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Penelitian dilakukan dengan tujuan menemukan pengaruh kinerja keuangan, earning volatility, dan growth opportunity pada volatilitas harga saham. Penelitian ini didasarkan pada analisis laporan keuangan tahunan perusahaan energi di BEI selama kurun waktu 2019-2022. Dalam penelitian ini, 18 perusahaan dipilih dengan teknik purposive sampling, menghasilkan 72 sampel observasi. Hipotesis penelitian ini diverifikasi melalui analisis regresi linear berganda dengan bantuan program SPSS versi 26. Penelitian ini mengemukakan bhawa kinerja keuangan berdampak negatif dan growth opportunity berdampak positif pada volatilitas harga saham. Namun, earning volatility tidak berdampak pada volatilitas harga saham.
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Dewi, Cynthia Sari. "PENGARUH DIVIDEND YIELD, EARNING VOLATILITY DAN LEVERAGE TERHADAP STOCK PRICE VOLATILITY PADA SEKTOR PERTAMBANGAN YANG TERDAFTAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA PERIODE 2015 - 2018." Ultima Management : Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen 11, no. 1 (January 15, 2020): 27–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.31937/manajemen.v11i1.1233.
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Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui factor dominan yag mempengaruhi volatilitas harga saham pada sector pertambangan yang terdaftar di Bursa efek Indonesia. Selama periode 2015 hingga 2018. Jenis penelitian ini adalah studi kausalitas dengan menggunakan data kuantitatif. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah laporan keuangan yang telah diaudit dan dipublikasikan melalui situs web perusahaan. Teknik pengambilan sampel yang digunakan adalah judgemental sampling. Variable independen dalam penelitian ini adalah dividend yield (DY), earning volatility (EV) dan Leverage (LEV) sedangkan stock price volatility (SPV) adalah variable dependen. Jumlah sampel setiap tahun sebanyak 13 perusahaan. Hasil penelitian ini dividend yield (DY), earning volatility (EV) dan Leverage (LEV) secara simultan berpengaruh terhadap stock price volatility (SPV) pada level signifikasi 5%. Dividend yield (DY) berpengaruh signifikan terhadap stock price volatility (SPV), sedangkan Earning volatility (EV) dan Leverage (LEV) tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap stock price volatility (SPV) pada confidence level 95%. Adjusted R square menunjukkan 0,065(6,5%) artinya hanya 6,5% dari variable dependen yaitu stock price volatility (SPV) dapat dijelaskan oleh varibel independe dalam model regresi penelitian ini, sedangkan 93,5% dijelaskan oleh variable lain yang tidak termasuk dalam penelitian ini.
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Jaye, Nathan. "The Volatility of Volatility." CFA Institute Magazine 24, no. 5 (September 2013): 36–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.2469/cfm.v24.n5.11.
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Huang, Darien, Christian Schlag, Ivan Shaliastovich, and Julian Thimme. "Volatility-of-Volatility Risk." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 54, no. 6 (November 5, 2018): 2423–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0022109018001436.
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We show that market volatility of volatility is a significant risk factor that affects index and volatility index option returns, beyond volatility itself. The volatility and volatility of volatility indices, identified model-free as the VIX and VVIX, respectively, are only weakly related to each other. Delta-hedged index and VIX option returns are negative on average and are more negative for strategies that are more exposed to volatility and volatility-of-volatility risks. Further, volatility and volatility of volatility significantly negatively predict future delta-hedged option payoffs. The evidence suggests that volatility and volatility-of-volatility risks are jointly priced and have negative market prices of risk.
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Dumas, Bernard, and Elisa Luciano. "From volatility smiles to the volatility of volatility." Decisions in Economics and Finance 42, no. 2 (August 21, 2019): 387–406. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10203-019-00263-w.
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Acuña, Andrés, and Cristián Pinto. "Eficiencia del mercado accionario Chileno: un enfoque dinámico usando test de volatilidad." Lecturas de Economía, no. 70 (September 11, 2009): 39–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.17533/udea.le.n70a2254.
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En este artículo estudiamos la eficiencia del Mercado Accionario Chileno (MAC). Para su comprobación usamos un modelo de equilibrio parcial que representa la manera como se forma el precio de los activos financieros. Contrastamos la volatilidad observada en los precios de las acciones y la volatilidad esperada en un modelo de mercado accionario eficiente. El análisis estadístico comprende datos de frecuencia mensual de títulos transados en la Bolsa de Comercio de Santiago de Chile en el periodo 1987-2007. Utilizando tests de volatilidad, encontramos evidencia de exceso de volatilidad en los precios del mercado accionario chileno; no podemos vincular el exceso de volatilidad a la existencia de una burbuja especulativa racional, y tampoco a un exceso de volatilidad en la tasa de descuento. Palabras clave: eficiencia, mercado accionario, valoración de activos, CAPM. Clasificación JEL: D53, G14 Abstract: This article studies the Chilean Stock Market's efficiency. To corroborate efficiency, we use a partial equilibrium model for financial asset pricing. We contrast between observed and expected Chilean stock price volatility under an efficient stock market framework. For the statistical analysis, we use monthly data for Chilean Stock Market prices from 1987 to 2007. Performing volatility tests, we find evidence of excess volatility in Chilean stock market prices. We cannot link this stock price excess volatility to the existence of a rational speculative bubble, nor to discount rate's excess volatility. Keywords: efficiency, stock market, asset pricing, CAPM. JEL Classification: D53, G14 Résumé: Dans cet article nous étudions l'efficience du marché actionnaire chilien (MAC). Pour ce faire, nous utilisons un modèle d'équilibre partiel qui représente la manière dont le prix des actifs financiers est déterminé. Nous contrastons la volatilité observée dans les prix des actions et la volatilité attendue à l'intérieur d'un modèle de marché actionnaire efficient. L'analyse statistique comprend un ensemble de données de fréquence mensuelle des titres échangés à la Bourse de Commerce de Santiago du Chili pour la période 1987-2007. En utilisant des tests de volatilité, nous montrons qu'il existe un excès de volatilité dans les prix du marché actionnaire chilien; sans qu'il soit posible lier cet excès de volatilité ni à l'existence d'une bulle spéculative rationnelle, ni au taux d'escompte. Mots clé: efficience, marché actionnaire, évaluation d'actifs, CAPM. Classification JEL : D53, G14
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Sukmana, Samuel Yohanes. "Pengaruh share repurchase dan likuiditas terhadap volatilitas saham." Jurnal Manajemen Bisnis dan Kewirausahaan 7, no. 5 (September 29, 2023): 1194–203. http://dx.doi.org/10.24912/jmbk.v7i5.23995.
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FSA oversees capital market regulations to maintain the stability of the Indonesian capital market, especially during unstable conditions, through a share repurchase policy. This study aims to analyze the relationship between share repurchase and liquidity on stock volatility. The research sample was selected using a purposive sampling technique, and 137 samples met the criteria. Data analysis was performed using multiple linear regression. The results of this study indicate that share repurchase has a significant negative effect on stock volatility, and liquidity has a significant positive effect on stock volatility. These findings indicate that share repurchasing can be considered for companies to reduce stock volatility in the short term, and they need to pay attention to stock liquidity conditions as a factor affecting stock price fluctuations. OJK mengatur regulasi pasar modal untuk menjaga stabilitas pasar modal Indonesia terutama pada saat kondisi berfluktuasi, salah satunya melalui kebijakan share repurchase. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis hubungan share repurchase dan likuiditas terhadap volatilitas saham. Sampel penelitian dipilih dengan teknik purposive sampling dan terdapat 137 sampel yang memenuhi kriteria. Analisis data menggunakan regresi linear berganda. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa share repurchase berpengaruh negatif secara signifikan terhadap volatilitas saham dan likuiditas berpengaruh positif secara signifikan terhadap volatilitas saham. Temuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa share repurchase dapat dijadikan pertimbangan bagi perusahaan untuk upaya meredam volatilitas saham dalam jangka pendek, serta perlu memperhatikan kondisi likuiditas saham sebagai faktor yang mempengaruhi fluktuasi harga saham.
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Widodo, Purwanto. "Is the Volatility of the Islamic Stock Index Lower than the Conventional Stock Index during Covid-19 Pandemic? Empirical Evidence in Indonesia Stock Exchange." Journal of Islamic Economics and Finance Studies 3, no. 1 (July 10, 2022): 24. http://dx.doi.org/10.47700/jiefes.v3i1.4364.
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AbstractThe Islamic stock index is a composite index of Islamic stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). Therefore, is expected to have low volatility and be resistant to a possible financial crisis. This study aims to see whether the volatility of the Islamic stock index is lower than the conventional stock index during the Covid-19 crisis. The data taken is daily stock closing data for JKSE and JII for the period March 1, 2020, to April 30, 2022, with a total of 532 observations. The model used is ARMA/ ARIMA which is then followed by the ARCH – GARCH volatility model. The results of this study indicate that the appropriate Islamic and conventional stock index volatility model is GARCH(1,1) and there is no problem with the asymmetry effect. The findings of this study are that during the Covid-19 crisis, there was a tendency that the return volatility of the Islamic stock index to be lower than conventional and that the Islamic and conventional stock indexes were relatively low against the financial crisis that occurred. AbstrakIndeks saham syariah adalah indeks komposit saham syariah yang tercatat di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI). Karena itu, diharapkan memiliki volatilitas rendah dan tahan terhadap krisis keuangan yang kemungkinan terjadi. Penelitian ini, bertujuan untuk melihat apakah volatilitas indeks saham syariah lebih rendah dibandingkan indeks saham konvensional semasa krisis yaitu Covid-19. Data yang diambil adalah data penutupan saham harian JII dan IHSG periode 1 Maret 2020 sampai dengan periode 30 April 2022, sebanyak 532 pengamatan. Model yang dipergunakan adalah ARMA/ ARIMA yang kemudian dilanjutkan dengan model volatilitas ARCH – GARCH. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa model volatilitas indeks saham syariah maupun konvensional yang sesuai adalah GARCH(1,1) dan tidak terdapat masalah effect asimetri. Temuan penelitian ini adalah selama krisis Covid-19 terdapat kecenderungan bahwa volatilitas return indeks saham syariah lebih rendah dibandingkan konvensional dan indeks saham syariah maupun konvensional relative tidak imum terhadap krisis keuangan yang terjadi.
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Yulia, Aida, and Ikramaturrabiah Ikramaturrabiah. "Pengaruh Internal Control, Volatilitas Saham, dan Volume Perdagangan Terhadap Bid-Ask Spread Pada Perusahaan yang Terdaftar dalam Indeks LQ45 Tahun 2011-2015." JURNAL PENDIDIKAN AKUNTANSI & KEUANGAN 6, no. 1 (January 19, 2018): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.17509/jpak.v6i1.15826.
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Abstract The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of internal control, stock volatility, and trading volume on bid-ask spread of companies listed in LQ45 index in the period of 2011 to 2015. Dependent variable used in this study is bid-ask spread, while independent variables used in this study are internal control, stock volatility, and trading volume. By using purposive sampling method, from 45 companies listed in LQ45 index, 16 companies are choosed as the sample in this study. The type of data used in this study is secondary data which are annual report and ICamel. Data is analyzed by statistical analysis using a multiple regression analysis. Then data is processed by statistical package for social science (SPSS) 20. The results of this study show that internal control, stock volatility, and trading volume have simultaneously effect on bid-ask spread. Internal control and stock volatility have significant positive on bid-ask spread, while trading volume have significant negative on bid-ask spread. Keywords. internal control; stock volatility; trading volume; spread bid-ask. AbstrakTujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menguji pengaruh pengendalian internal, volatilitas saham, dan volume perdagangan terhadap bid-ask spread perusahaan yang terdaftar dalam indeks LQ45 pada periode 2011 hingga 2015. Variabel dependen yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah bid-ask spread , sedangkan variabel independen yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah pengendalian internal, volatilitas saham, dan volume perdagangan. Dengan menggunakan metode purposive sampling, dari 45 perusahaan yang terdaftar dalam indeks LQ45, 16 perusahaan dipilih sebagai sampel dalam penelitian ini. Jenis data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder yaitu laporan tahunan dan ICamel. Data dianalisis dengan analisis statistik menggunakan analisis regresi berganda. Kemudian data diproses oleh paket statistik untuk ilmu sosial (SPSS) 20. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa kontrol internal, volatilitas saham, dan volume perdagangan secara simultan berpengaruh pada bid-ask spread. Kontrol internal dan volatilitas saham berpengaruh positif signifikan pada bid-ask spread, sedangkan volume perdagangan memiliki negatif signifikan pada spread bid-ask. Kata kunci. pengendalian internal; volatilitas saham; volume perdagangan; spread bid-ask.
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Mukmin, Amirul, and Firmansyah Firmansyah. "ANALISIS PERBANDINGAN VOLATILITAS INDEKS HARGA SAHAM IHSG DAN JII." JURNAL EKONOMI DAN PERBANKAN SYARIAH 3, no. 1 (June 23, 2020): 69–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.46899/jeps.v3i1.155.
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ABSTRAK: pasar modal syariah memiliki beberapa perbedaan dengankonvensional pada jenis jenis surat berharga dan tingkat risikonya. Saham adalah salah satu surat berharga yang memiliki risiko tinggi. Salah satu risiko yang ada adalah fluktuasi harga yang di kenal dengan volatilitas. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah membandingkan volatilitas risiko indek harga saham di Indonesia dengan metode GARCH. Data yang di gunakan adalah dari IHSG dan JII mulai dari 1 mei 2013 sampai 31 desember 2014. Penelitian ini menemukan bahwa volatilitas mempengaruhi IHSG dan JII. Hasil forecast variance menunjukan bahwa fluktuasi dan proporsi varian IHSG dan JII 0.05. namun demikian, jika dilihat dari proporsi divergennya adalah 0.05 dan 0.04 artinya volatilitas risiko IHSG lebih tinggi daripada JII. Namun jika di lihat dari nilai akurasinya, JJI lebih Akurat daripada IHSG.Kata kunci: IHSG, JII, Volatilitas, Pasar modal syariah dan GARCH.ABSTRACT: Islamic Capital marketand conventional have some typesecurities which have different risks levels. A stock is one of security among other securities that have the high level of risk. One of the risk that exist in the stock is fluctuations price, it is commonly called as volatility. The aimed of this research is to know the comparative volatility risks of stock price index in Indonesia with GARCH Method. The samples taken in this study is Indek Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) and Jakarta Islamic Indexs (JII), from 1 May 2013 to 31 December 2014. The research found that there the volatility influence the IHSG and JII. The forecast of variance results showed that the fluctuations and the proportion of the variant of the IHSG are same as with JII that is 0.05.Nevertheless, when viewed from diverge proportion of IHSG and JII each of them are 0,05 and 0,04, it means the volatility risk IHSG is higher than JII and if it seen from the accuracy percentage of forecast, JII is more accurate that is amounted 16.83% contrasted with IHSG it is 12.99%.Keywords: ISHG, JII, volatility, Islamic capital maret and GARCH
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Ratu Tasya Alieska and Edi Sukarmanto. "Pengaruh Kepemilikan Institusional, Kepemilikan Manajerial terhadap Volatilitas Idiosinkratik Return Saham dan Asimetri Informasi Sebagai Variabel Moderating." Bandung Conference Series: Accountancy 4, no. 1 (February 7, 2024): 167–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.29313/bcsa.v4i1.11180.
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Abstract. This study aims to determine the influence of institutional ownership, managerial ownership on idiosyncratic volatility of stock returns with information asymmetry as a moderation variable. In taking data, researchers use the purposive sampling method so as to obtain data in accordance with predetermined criteria. The sample used in this study was 64 manufacturing companies with an observation period from 2018-2022 so that 320 observations were obtained. The research method used is a verifiative method with a quantitative approach. Hypothesis testing is performed using multiple linear regression analysis as well as MRA tests. The results showed that institutional ownership variables had a significant effect in a positive direction on the Idiosyncratic Volatility of Stock Returns. Managerial ownership has a significant negative effect on the Idiosyncratic Volatility of Stock Returns. Institutional ownership moderated by Information Asymmetry has a significant negative effect on the Idiosyncratic Volatility of Stock Returns. Managerial Ownership moderated by Information Asymmetry has a significant negative effect on the Idiosyncratic Volatility of Stock Returns.
Abstrak. Penelitian ini memiliki tujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh kepemilkan institusi, kepemilikan manajerial terhadap volatilitas idiosinkratik return saham dengan asimetri informasi sebagai variabel moderasi. Dalam melakukan pengambilan data, peneliti menggunakan metode purposive sampling sehingga mendapatkan data sesuai dengan kriteria yang telah ditetapkan. Sampel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini sebanyak 64 perusahaan manufaktur dengan masa pengamatan dari 2018-2022 sehingga diperoleh 320 pengamatan. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah metode verifikatif dengan pendekatan kuantitatif. Pengujian hipotesis dilakukan dengan menggunakan analisis regresi linier berganda serta uji MRA. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa variabel kepemilikan institusional berpengaruh signifikan dengan arah yang positif terhadap Volatilitas Idiosinkratik Return Saham. Kepemilikan manajerial berpengaruh signifikan dengan arah negatif terhadap Volatilitas Idiosinkratik Return Saham. Kepemilikan institusional yang dimoderasi oleh Asimetri Informasi berpengaruh signifikan dengan arah negatif terhadap Volatilitas Idiosinkratik Return Saham. Kepemilikan Manajerial yang dimoderasi oleh Asimetri Informasi berpengaruh signifikan dengan arah negatif terhadap Volatilitas Idiosinkratik Return Saham
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Ratu Tasya Alieska and Edi Sukarmanto. "Pengaruh Kepemilikan Institusional, Kepemilikan Manajerial terhadap Volatilitas Idiosinkratik Return Saham dan Asimetri Informasi sebagai Variabel Moderating." Bandung Conference Series: Business and Management 4, no. 1 (February 29, 2024): 347–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.29313/bcsbm.v4i1.10950.
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Abstract. This study aims to determine the influence of institutional ownership, managerial ownership on idiosyncratic volatility of stock returns with information asymmetry as a moderation variable. In taking data, researchers use the purposive sampling method so as to obtain data in accordance with predetermined criteria. The sample used in this study was 64 manufacturing companies with an observation period from 2018-2022 so that 320 observations were obtained. The research method used is a verifiative method with a quantitative approach. Hypothesis testing is performed using multiple linear regression analysis as well as MRA tests. The results showed that institutional ownership variables had a significant effect in a positive direction on the Idiosyncratic Volatility of Stock Returns. Managerial ownership has a significant negative effect on the Idiosyncratic Volatility of Stock Returns. Institutional ownership moderated by Information Asymmetry has a significant negative effect on the Idiosyncratic Volatility of Stock Returns. Managerial Ownership moderated by Information Asymmetry has a significant negative effect on the Idiosyncratic Volatility of Stock Returns.
Abstrak. Penelitian ini memiliki tujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh kepemilkan institusi, kepemilikan manajerial terhadap volatilitas idiosinkratik return saham dengan asimetri informasi sebagai variabel moderasi. Dalam melakukan pengambilan data, peneliti menggunakan metode purposive sampling sehingga mendapatkan data sesuai dengan kriteria yang telah ditetapkan. Sampel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini sebanyak 64 perusahaan manufaktur dengan masa pengamatan dari 2018-2022 sehingga diperoleh 320 pengamatan. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah metode verifikatif dengan pendekatan kuantitatif. Pengujian hipotesis dilakukan dengan menggunakan analisis regresi linier berganda serta uji MRA. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa variabel kepemilikan institusional berpengaruh signifikan dengan arah yang positif terhadap Volatilitas Idiosinkratik Return Saham. Kepemilikan manajerial berpengaruh signifikan dengan arah negatif terhadap Volatilitas Idiosinkratik Return Saham. Kepemilikan institusional yang dimoderasi oleh Asimetri Informasi berpengaruh signifikan dengan arah negatif terhadap Volatilitas Idiosinkratik Return Saham. Kepemilikan Manajerial yang dimoderasi oleh Asimetri Informasi berpengaruh signifikan dengan arah negatif terhadap Volatilitas Idiosinkratik Return Saham.
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Rømer, Sigurd Emil, and Rolf Poulsen. "How Does the Volatility of Volatility Depend on Volatility?" Risks 8, no. 2 (June 3, 2020): 59. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/risks8020059.
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We investigate the state dependence of the variance of the instantaneous variance of the S&P 500 index empirically. Time-series analysis of realized variance over a 20-year period shows strong evidence of an elasticity of variance of the variance parameter close to that of a log-normal model, albeit with an empirical autocorrelation function that one-factor diffusion models fail to capture at horizons above a few weeks. When studying option market behavior (in-sample pricing as well as out-of-sample pricing and hedging over the period 2004–2019), messages are mixed, but systematic, model-wise. The log-normal but drift-free SABR (stochastic-alpha-beta-rho) model performs best for short-term options (times-to-expiry of three months and below), the Heston model—in which variance is stationary but not log-normal—is superior for long-term options, and a mixture of the two models does not lead to improvements.
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Lovita, Ajeng, and Anggana Lisiantara. "Pengaruh Volatilitas Arus Kas, Volatilitas Penjualan, Book Tax Difference, Tingkat Hutang Dan Kepemilikan Institusional Terhadap Persistensi Laba." JIMAT (Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Akuntansi) Undiksha 14, no. 04 (December 9, 2023): 1068–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.23887/jimat.v14i04.58221.
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Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh volatilitas arus kas, volatilitas penjualan, book tax difference, tingkat hutang dan kepemilikan institusional terhadap persistensi laba. Persistensi laba didefinisikan sebagai laba yang dapat digunakan sebagai indikator laba di masa yang akan datang, dengan kata lain persistensi yaitu kemampuan laba suatu perusahaan untuk bertahan di masa depan. Variabel dependen yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah persistensi laba pada tahun pengamatan 2019-2021 Populasi pada penelitian ini adalah 155 perusahaan manufaktur yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Data penelitian diperoleh dari laporan keuangan perusahaan manufaktur periode tahun 2019-2021. Berdasarkan metode purposive sampling, sampel yang diperoleh sebanyak 32 perusahaan. Hipotesis dalam penelitian ini diuji menggunakan analisis regresi linier berganda. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa volatilitas arus kas, tingkat hutang, kepemilikan institusional berpengaruh positif dan tidak signifikan terhadap persistensi laba. Sedangkan volatilitas penjualan berpengaruh negatif dan tidak signifikan terhadap persistensi laba. Namun book tax difference berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap persistensi laba. ABSTRACT This research aims to analyze the affect of cash volatility, sale volatility, book tax difference, leverage and institutional ownership on earning persistence. Earnings persistence is defined as the profit that can be used as an indicator of future earnings, in other words, the persistence of the earnings of a company's ability to survive in the future. The dependent variabel used in this study is earning persistence in observations 2019-2021. The population of this research is 155 companies in the manufacturing sector which were listed in Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX). The research data were collected from manufacturing companies financial statement for the period of years 2019-2021. Based on purposive sampling method, there are 32 samples. The reseacrh hypotesis were tested using multiple linear regression analysis. The results indicate that the cash volatility, leverage, institutional ownership firm has positive and no significant effect on earning persistence. While sales volatility firm has negative and no significant effect on earnings persistence. But the book tax difference firm has negative and significant effect on earnings persistence. Key words : Earning persistence, cash volatility, sales volatility, book tax difference, leverage and institutional ownership
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Nainggolan, Wanri, Nelson Nainggolan, and Hanny A. H. Komalig. "Analisis Volatilitas Harga Eceran Komoditas Beberapa Pangan Utama di Kota Manado Menggunakan Model ARCH." Jurnal MIPA 7, no. 2 (July 31, 2018): 6. http://dx.doi.org/10.35799/jm.7.2.2018.20617.
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Konsumsi bahan pangan utama seperti cabai rawit merah dan tomat apel selalu menjadi sorotan bagi kalangan masyarakat, hal ini disebabkan oleh harga yang tidak tetap dan selalu berfluktuasi pada setiap periode. Besaran perubahan harga yang menunjukkan fluktuasi pasar dalam satu periode waktu ( volatilitas ) merupakan gambaran seberapa besar resiko yang akan dihadapipara pelaku ekonomi pada masa yang akan datang. Volatilitas dalam penelitian ini dibangun menggunakan modelAutoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticit (ARCH). Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menentukan volatilitas harga eceran dari beberapa komoditas pangan utama yaitu cabai rawit merah dan tomat apel di Kota Manado. Penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder periode Januari 2013 – Desember 2016. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model volatilitas untuk cabai rawit merah dan tomat apel adalah model ARCH (1)The main food consumption such as red pepper and apple tomato has always been the spotlight for the society, this is due to the fixed price and always fluctuate in every period. The magnitude of price changes that indicate market fluctuations in a period of time (volatility) is a picture of how much risk will be faced by economic actors in the future. Volatility in this research was built using Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticit (ARCH) model. The purpose of this study is to determine the retail price volatility of some major food commodities namely red chili and apple tomatoes in Manado City. This study uses secondary data from January 2013 to December 2016. The results showed that the volatility model for red cayenne and apple tomato was ARCH (1) model
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Hao, Miao, Rong Chen, and Xinhong Fu. "Effect of Pig Price Volatility on Sichuan Pig Farmers’ Behavioral Response in China." Journal of Agricultural Science 6, no. 4 (March 15, 2014): 55. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/jas.v6n4p55.
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This study aims to analyze cobweb phenomenon of pig price volatility and its effects on pig producers in Sichuan, China. Historical data showed that pig price from 2000 to 2003 pertained to Occlude Cobweb Phenomenon; while pig price from 2004 to 2012 pertained to Divergent Cobweb Phenomenon. Based on Cobweb Phenomenon this article provided a comparative analysis of pig price volatility’s effects on scattered farmers, scale farmers and pig factories via examining their basic information, response to price volatility, reasons leading to such response, and price expectation. The results indicated that scale farmers were the most sensitive to price volatility; hence their production behaviors probably boosted pig price volatility to some degree. Factory farming was the most competitive farming pattern and was bound to be the main trend in pig industry in the future.
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Corsi, Fulvio, Stefan Mittnik, Christian Pigorsch, and Uta Pigorsch. "The Volatility of Realized Volatility." Econometric Reviews 27, no. 1-3 (February 19, 2008): 46–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07474930701853616.
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Hsu, Stephen D. H., and Brian M. Murray. "On the volatility of volatility." Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 380 (July 2007): 366–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2007.02.041.
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Prabowo, Agung, Zulfatul Mukarromah, Lisnawati Lisnawati, and Pramono Sidi. "PENENTUAN HARGA OPSI BELI ATAS SAHAM PT. ANTAM (PERSERO) MENGGUNAKAN MODEL BINOMIAL FUZZY." Jurnal Matematika Sains dan Teknologi 19, no. 1 (March 16, 2018): 8–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.33830/jmst.v19i1.124.2018.
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Option is a financial instrument where price depends on the underlying stock price. The pricing of options, both selling options and purchase options, may use the CRR (Cox-Ross-Rubinstein) binomial model. Only two possible parameters were used that is u if the stock price rises and d when the stock price down. One of the elements that determine option prices is volatility. In the binomial model CRR volatility is constant. In fact, the financial market price of stocks fluctuates so that volatility also fluctuates. This article discusses volatility of fluctuating stock price movements by modeling it using binomial fuzzy with triangular curve representation. The analysis is carried out in relation to the existence of three interpretations of the triangular curve representation resulting in different degrees of membership. In addition to volatility, this study added the size or risk level ρ. As an illustration, this study used stock price movement data from PT. Antam (Persero) from August 2015 until July 2016. The results of one period obtained from the purchase price option for August 2016 with the largest volatility, medium and smallest respectively were Rp.143,43, Rp.95,49, and Rp.79,00. There was calculated at the risk level of ρ = 90%. The degree of membership for each option price varies depending on the interpretation of the triangle curve representation.
Opsi merupakan instrumen keuangan yang harganya tergantung pada harga saham yang mendasarinya. Penentuan harga opsi, baik opsi jual maupun opsi beli dapat menggunakan model binomial CRR (Cox-Ross-Rubinstein). Dalam model ini hanya dimungkinkan adanya dua parameter yaitu u apabila harga saham naik dan d pada saat harga saham turun. Salah satu unsur yang menentukan harga opsi adalah volatilitas. Dalam model binomial CRR digunakan volatilitas yang bersifat konstan. Padahal, pada pasar keuangan pergerakan harga saham mengalami fluktuasi sehingga volatilitas juga menjadi fluktuatif. Artikel ini membahas volatilitas pergerakan harga saham yang fluktuatif dengan memodelkannya menggunakan binomial fuzzy dengan representasi kurva segitiga. Analisis dilakukan terkait dengan adanya tiga interpretasi terhadap representasi kurva segitiga tersebut yang menghasilkan derajat keanggotaan yang berbeda. Selain volatilitas, dalam penelitian ini ditambahkan ukuran atau tingkat risiko ρ. Sebagai ilustrasi, digunakan data pergerakan harga saham PT. Antam (Persero) dari Agustus 2015 hingga Juli 2016. Hasil penelitian dengan perhitungan satu periode diperoleh hasil harga opsi beli untuk bulan Agustus 2016 dengan volatilitas terbesar, menengah, dan terkecil masing-masing adalah Rp.143,43, Rp.95,49, dan Rp.79,00 yang dihitung pada tingkat risiko ρ = 90%. Derajat keanggotaan untuk masing-masing harga opsi berbeda-beda tergantung pada interpretasi dari representasi kurva segitiga.
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Sholihah, Fathimah, and Nunung Kusnadi. "Dampak Pengembangan Biofuels terhadap Volatilitas Harga Beberapa Komoditas Pangan di Pasar Dunia." Jurnal Agro Ekonomi 37, no. 2 (April 20, 2020): 157. http://dx.doi.org/10.21082/jae.v37n2.2019.157-170.
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<strong>English</strong><br />Agricultural product based biofuels are the connecting points of the linkages between the global agricultural commodity, energy, and financial markets. Since the global energy markets and financial markets are volatile in nature, rapid expansion of biofuels industry results in increasing volatility of agricultural commodity prices, particularly food prices. The aims of this research is to review price volatility of some food commodities (wheat, corn and soybean) in in the world markets and to analyze the impact of global biofuels development on the price volatility. The price volatility is analyzed using the ARIMA and ARCH GARCH methods. The results show that prices of food commodities have been more volatile since the United States of America imposed the Renewable Fuel Standard Mandate-2 policy in 2007. The Corn and soybean price volatilities are higher than rice and wheat. The stronger are their linkages with biofuels development, the higher are their price volatilities. Increasing food price volatility and level should be considered as challenges and opportunities for accelerating food production growth through technological innovation and land expansion toward the achievement food self-sufficiency such that the national food security system is resilient against global market disturbances.<br /><br /><br /><strong>Indonesian</strong><br />Biofuels berbahan baku hasil pertanian menjadi komoditas penghubung antara pasar komoditas pertanian dengan pasar energi, dan selanjutnya dengan pasar finansial dunia. Oleh karena pasar energi dan pasar finansial dunia rentan gejolak maka pengembangan biofuel secara besar-besaran berdampak pada peningkatan volatilitas harga komoditas pertanian, utamanya komoditas pangan pokok. Penelitian bertujuan untuk meninjau volatilitas harga jagung, gandum, beras dan kedelai di pasar dunia serta untuk menganalisis dampak pengembangan biofuels terhadap volatilitas harga tersebut. Analisis volatilitas harga dilakukan dengan metode ARIMA dan ARCH GARCH. Penelitian menunjukkan bahwa harga komoditas pangan lebih volatil setelah Amerika Serikat menerapkan kebijakan Renewable Fuels Standard Mandate-2 tahun 2007. Volatilitas harga jagung dan kedelai lebih tinggi daripada beras dan gandum. Semakin besar keterkaitan komoditas dengan pengembangan biofuels maka semakin besar pula volatilitas harga komoditas tersebut. Peningkatan volatilitas dan level harga tersebut dapat dipandang sebagai tantangan dan peluang untuk memacu peningkatan produksi pangan melalui pengembangan teknologi dan ekstensifikasi lahan pertanian guna meningkatkan kemandirian pangan sehingga sistem ketahanan pangan nasional lebih tahan menghadapi gejolak pasar global.
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Ben Abdallah, Marwa, Maria Fekete Farkas, and Zoltan Lakner. "Analysis of meat price volatility and volatility spillovers in Finland." Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika) 66, No. 2 (February 24, 2020): 84–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/158/2019-agricecon.
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Unforeseen important changes in price can present a significant risk in the market. The price fluctuation of agricultural commodities has raised concern for studying the volatility of different agricultural products. A persistent volatility in prices causes continued uncertainty in the market. Higher price volatility is to be mitigated by higher management costs and the higher cost of risk mitigation is often converted into higher producer prices. The aim of this paper is to investigate the price volatility of producer and consumer meat prices and to capture the volatility spillover along the Finnish meat supply chain. The Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity – Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner (GARCH-BEKK) model is applied to analyse shocks and volatilities of the prices and to estimate whether the price volatility is flowing from the first price level (producer) to the second price level (consumer), using monthly price indices. An asymmetric volatility spillover effect was detected in the poultry meat and a unidirectional, volatility spillover effect, from consumer to producer, is observed for pork prices. The findings of this study could serve as a tool for forecasting meat producer and consumer prices, which could assist the Finnish government with endorsing policy options to alleviate the price volatility impact, to protect both consumers and producers from its negative effects.
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SULISTIOWATI, Susanti Evie, Ratya Anindita, and Rosihan Asmara. "Volatilitas Pasar Bawang Merah di Kabupaten Probolinggo Provinsi Jawa Timur." Jurnal Agro Ekonomi 39, no. 1 (June 7, 2021): 15. http://dx.doi.org/10.21082/jae.v39n1.2021.15-27.
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<strong>English</strong><br />Shallot is an agricultural strategic commodity. Understanding the market dynamics is necessary in formulating the market management policy. This study aims to analyze the volatility magnitude and <em>spillover</em> of shallot production, import, and consumption. This study was conducted in Probolinggo Regency, a major shallot production center, using monthly time series data of 2013-2019 period. Volatility was analyzed using the ARCH/GARCH method, spillover was analyzed using the EGARCH method. The results showed low volatility in production quantity and producers price. High volatility was found for quantity of consumption, import price and consumer price. Volatility spillover was found between producer’s price and production quantity as well as between consumer’s price and consumption quantity. There was no volatility spillover between producer’s price and consumer’s price or between quantity of production and consumption. The findings indicate the existence of asymmetrical information between producers’ market and consumers’ market. Therefore, market stabilization intervention should be focused in the consumers’ market. Price reference may be used as a benchmark in market intervention which includes market operations and import controls. Government should develop market information system to prevent asymmetrical information between the producers’ market and the consumers’ market.<br /><br /><br /><strong>Indonesian</strong><br />Bawang merah adalah salah satu komoditas pertanian strategis. Pemahaman tentang dinamika pasar sangat penting dalam perumusan kebijakan pengelolaan pasar. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis besaran dan <em>spillover</em> volatilitas produksi, impor dan konsumsi bawang merah. Penelitian dilakukan di Kabupaten Probolinggo, salah satu sentra produksi bawang merah dengan menggunakan data bulanan deret waktu selama tahun 2013–2019. Untuk menganalisis volatilitas harga, produksi, dan konsumsi digunakan metode ARCH/GARCH, sedangkan untuk menganalisis volatilitas <em>spillover</em> digunakan metode EGARCH. Hasil analisis menujukkan volatilitas rendah untuk kuantitas produksi dan harga konsumen. Volatilitas tinggi ditemukan untuk kuantitas konsumsi, harga impor, dan harga konsumen<em>.</em> Volatilitas <em>spillover</em> terjadi antara harga produsen dan kuantitas produksi serta antara harga konsumen dan kuantitas konsumsi. Volatilitas <em>spillover</em> tidak terjadi antara harga produsen dan konsumen maupun antara kuantitas produksi dan konsumsi<em>. </em>Temuan ini<em> </em>mengindikasikan adanya asimetri informasi antara pasar produsen dan pasar konsumen. Karena itu, upaya stabilisasi harga bawang merah sebaiknya difokuskan di pasar konsumen. Kebijakan referensi harga dapat dijadikan sebagai acuan dalam melaksanakan intervensi pasar yang mencakup operasi pasar dan pengendalian impor. Pemerintah perlu pula membangun sistem informasi pasar untuk menghilangkan masalah asimetri informasi antara pasar produsen dan pasar konsumen.
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Puspitasari, Dinnar. "ANALISIS PERBANDINGAN VOLATILITAS HARGA ISSI DENGAN IHSG: STUDI KASUS MASA TURMOIL PERIODE 2019-2020." An-Nisbah: Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah 8, no. 2 (October 28, 2021): 271–303. http://dx.doi.org/10.21274/an.v8i2.4382.
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Abstrak: Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dan membandingkan pengaruh masa turmoil antara volatilitas Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia (ISSI) dengan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG). Serta, menganalisis dan membandingkan seberapa besar variabel-variabel makroekonomi yang mencerminkan masa turmoil pada tahun 2019 hingga 2020 mempengaruhi volatilitas ISSI dan IHSG. Masa turmoil dalam penelitian ini yaitu penurunan harga minyak dunia, perang dagang antara Amerika Serikat dengan China, pandemi Covid-19 dan demo penolakan Rancangan Undang-Undang (RUU) Cipta Kerja dengan variabel Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB), inflasi, kurs rupiah-dolar, suku bunga, harga minyak dunia, Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) Composite Index, New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Variabel yang digunakan adalah data lima hari kerja dari tahun 2019 hingga 2020. Metode analisis yang digunakan yaitu analisis kuantitatif menggunakan TGARCH Model dan VECM. Berdasarkan hasil TGARCH menunjukkan bahwa volatilitas ISSI memiliki pengaruh yang lebih kecil terhadap masa turmoil. Namun, hasil analisis VECM menunjukkan masa turmoil tahun 2019 hingga 2020 lebih berdampak pada volatilitas ISSI dibandingkan dengan volatilitas IHSG.
Abstract: This study aims to analyze and compare the effect of turmoil period on the volatility of Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) and Jakarta Composite Index (JCI). As well, analyzing and comparing the impact of macroeconomic variables that reflect turmoil period in 2019 to 2020 affect the volatility of ISSI and JCI. The turmoil period in this research are the decline in world oil prices, trade war between the United States and China, Covid-19 pandemic and demonstration against the Omnibus Law. Variables in this model are Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, rupiah-dollar exchange rate, interest rates, world oil prices, Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) Composite Index and New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The variables used five working days data from 2019 to 2020. The analytical method used in this research is quantitative analysis using TGARCH Model and VECM. Based on the results of TGARCH, it shows that the volatility of ISSI has less effect on the turmoil period. However, the results of VECM analysis shows that the turmoil period of 2019 to 2020 has more impact on the volatility of ISSI than the volatility of JCI.
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Rhee, Byung Kun, and Sang Won Hwang. "An Empirical Research on the Informational Efficiency of Model Free Implied Volatility." Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies 16, no. 2 (November 30, 2008): 67–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jdqs-02-2008-b0003.
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Black-Scholes Imolied volatility (8SIV) has a few drawbacks. One is that the model Is not much successful in fitting the option prices. and It Is n야 guaranteed the model is correct one. Second. the usual tradition in using the BSIV is that only at-the-money Options are used. It is well-known that IV's of In-the-money or Qut-of-the-money ootions are much different from those estimated from near-the-money options. In this regard, a new model is confronted with Korean market data. Brittenxmes and Neuberger (2000) derive a formula for volatility which is a function of option prices‘ Since the formula is derived without using any option pricing model. volatility estimated from the formula is called model-tree implied volatillty (MFIV). MFIV overcomes the two drawbacks of BSIV. Jiang and Tian (2005) show that. with the S&P index Options (SPX), MFIV is suoerlor to historical volatility (HV) or BSIV in forecasting the future volatllity. In KOSPI 200 index options, when the forecasting performances are compared, MFIV is better than any other estimated volatilities. The hypothesis that MFIV contains all informations for realized volatility and the other volatilities are redundant is oot rejected in any cases.
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Ohk, Ki Yool, and Minkyu Lee. "Low-Volatility Strategies using Range Volatility." Korean Data Analysis Society 21, no. 2 (April 30, 2019): 911–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.37727/jkdas.2019.21.2.911.
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Neo, Poh Ling, and Chyng Wen Tee. "Volatility Timing under Low-Volatility Strategy." Journal of Portfolio Management 48, no. 1 (October 1, 2021): 133–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.3905/jpm.2021.1.293.
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Cheng, Jingfei. "Volatility Forecasting and Volatility Risk Premium." Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics 03, no. 01 (2015): 98–102. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jamp.2015.31014.
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Joon Byun, Suk, Dong Woo Rhee, and Sol Kim. "Intraday volatility forecasting from implied volatility." International Journal of Managerial Finance 7, no. 1 (February 22, 2011): 83–100. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/17439131111109017.
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Ingber, L., and J. K. Wilson. "Volatility of volatility of financial markets." Mathematical and Computer Modelling 29, no. 5 (March 1999): 39–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0895-7177(99)00048-5.
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Horvath, Blanka, Antoine Jacquier, and Peter Tankov. "Volatility Options in Rough Volatility Models." SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics 11, no. 2 (January 2020): 437–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1137/18m1169242.
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Da Fonseca, José, and Wenjun Zhang. "Volatility of volatility is (also) rough." Journal of Futures Markets 39, no. 5 (January 15, 2019): 600–611. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/fut.21995.
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Patton, Andrew J., and Kevin Sheppard. "Good Volatility, Bad Volatility: Signed Jumps and The Persistence of Volatility." Review of Economics and Statistics 97, no. 3 (July 2015): 683–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00503.
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