Journal articles: 'Vermont – Climate'

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Betts, Alan K. "Vermont Climate Change Indicators." Weather, Climate, and Society 3, no. 2 (April 1, 2011): 106–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011wcas1096.1.

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AbstractClimate change indicators are developed for Vermont in recent decades based on the trends in freeze dates, the length of the growing season, the frozen period of small lakes, and the onset of spring. These trends, which show a consistent pattern of a warming climate in Vermont during the past 50 yr, provide useful information for climate change adaptation planning for the state. The freeze period has become shorter and the growing season for frost-sensitive plants has become longer by about 3.7 (±1.1) days decade−1, the date of the last spring freeze has come earlier by 2.3 (±0.7) days decade−1, and the first autumn freeze has come later by 1.5 (±0.8) days decade−1. The frozen period for small lakes, which depends on mean temperatures over longer periods, has decreased faster by 6.9 (±1.5) days decade−1. Lake freeze-up has occurred later by 3.9 (±1.1) days decade−1, while ice-out has come earlier by 2.9 (±1.0) days decade−1. Lilac first leaf has also been coming earlier by 2.9 (±0.8) days decade−1, while lilac first bloom has advanced more slowly, by 1.6 (±0.6) days decade−1. The first leaf of Vermont lilacs, an indicator of early spring, is closely correlated with the ice-out of the small reference lake, Stile’s Pond, because both are related to temperatures in February–April. In the past 40 yr, the growing season for frost-sensitive plants has increased by 2 weeks, and the growing season for frost-hardy plants may have increased more.

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Villars, Thomas. "Five Years of SCAN Soil Climate Monitoring in Vermont." Soil Horizons 48, no. 2 (2007): 27. http://dx.doi.org/10.2136/sh2007.2.0027.

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Hazelrigg, A. L., T. L. Bradshaw, G. S. Maia, S. L. Kingsley-Richards, and L. P. Berkett. "Disease susceptibility of cold-climate grapes in Vermont, USA." Acta Horticulturae, no. 1205 (June 2018): 477–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.17660/actahortic.2018.1205.58.

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Perry, Elizabeth, Robert Manning, Xiao Xiao, William Valliere, and Nathan Reigner. "Social Climate Change: The Advancing Extirpation of Snowmobilers in Vermont." Journal of Park and Recreation Administration 36, no. 2 (2018): 31–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.18666/jpra-2018-v36-i2-8307.

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Bradshaw, T. L., A. L. Hazelrigg, and L. P. Berkett. "Characteristics of the cold-climate winegrape industry in Vermont, USA." Acta Horticulturae, no. 1205 (June 2018): 469–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.17660/actahortic.2018.1205.57.

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Dawson, Jackie, and Daniel Scott. "Climate Change Vulnerability of the Vermont Ski Tourism Industry (USA)." Annals of Leisure Research 10, no. 3-4 (January 2007): 550–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/11745398.2007.9686781.

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Younts, Grayson L., Elena A. Mikhailova, Lili Lin, Zhenbang Hao, Hamdi A. Zurqani, Christopher J. Post, Mark A. Schlautman, and George B. Shepherd. "Vermont Global Warming Solutions Act: The Costs of Inaction from Land Conversions." Laws 11, no. 3 (June 7, 2022): 48. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/laws11030048.

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The Vermont (VT) Global Warming Solutions Act (GWSA, 2020) sets greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets at 26% below 2005 by 2025, 40% below 1990 by 2030 and 80% below 1990 by 2050 for energy-related emissions only. Vermont’s omission of GHG emissions from land conversions could result in significant costs of inaction (COI), which could hinder the state’s mitigation and adaptation plans and result in climate crisis-related risks (e.g., credit downgrade). Science-based spatio-temporal data of GHG emissions from soils because of land conversions can be integrated into the conceptual framework of “action” versus “inaction” to prevent GHG emissions. The application of soil information data and remote sensing analysis can identify the GHG emissions from land conversions, which can be expressed as “realized” social costs of “inaction”. This study demonstrates the rapid assessment of the value of regulating ecosystems services (ES) from soil organic carbon (SOC), soil inorganic carbon (SIC), and total soil carbon (TSC) stocks, based on the concept of the avoided social cost of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for VT by soil order and county using remote sensing and information from the State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) and Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO) databases. Classified land cover data for 2001 and 2016 were downloaded from the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium (MRLC) website. These results provide accurate and quantitative spatio-temporal information about likely GHG emissions, which can be linked to VT’s climate action plan. A failure to considerably reduce emissions from land conversions would increase climate change costs and potential legal consequences for VT and beyond its borders.

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Davis, Dena S. "Death in a Cold Climate: Medical Aid in Dying in Vermont." Hastings Center Report 52, no. 1 (January 2022): 59–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hast.1340.

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Helling, Alexander, David Conner, Sarah Heiss, and Linda Berlin. "Economic Analysis of Climate Change Best Management Practices in Vermont Agriculture." Agriculture 5, no. 3 (September 18, 2015): 879–900. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/agriculture5030879.

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Bradshaw, T. L., S. L. Kingsley-Richards, J. Foster, and L. P. Berkett. "Horticultural performance and juice quality of cold-climate grapes in Vermont, USA." European Journal of Horticultural Science 83, no. 1 (February 27, 2018): 42–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.17660/ejhs.2018/83.1.6.

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Guilbert, Justin, Brian Beckage, Jonathan M. Winter, Radley M. Horton, Timothy Perkins, and Arne Bomblies. "Impacts of Projected Climate Change over the Lake Champlain Basin in Vermont." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 53, no. 8 (August 2014): 1861–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-13-0338.1.

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AbstractThe Lake Champlain basin is a critical ecological and socioeconomic resource of the northeastern United States and southern Quebec, Canada. While general circulation models (GCMs) provide an overview of climate change in the region, they lack the spatial and temporal resolution necessary to fully anticipate the effects of rising global temperatures associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Observed trends in precipitation and temperature were assessed across the Lake Champlain basin to bridge the gap between global climate change and local impacts. Future shifts in precipitation and temperature were evaluated as well as derived indices, including maple syrup production, days above 32.2°C (90°F), and snowfall, relevant to managing the natural and human environments in the region. Four statistically downscaled, bias-corrected GCM simulations were evaluated from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) forced by two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to sample the uncertainty in future climate simulations. Precipitation is projected to increase by between 9.1 and 12.8 mm yr−1 decade−1 during the twenty-first century while daily temperatures are projected to increase between 0.43° and 0.49°C decade−1. Annual snowfall at six major ski resorts in the region is projected to decrease between 46.9% and 52.4% by the late twenty-first century. In the month of July, the number of days above 32.2°C in Burlington, Vermont, is projected to increase by over 10 days during the twenty-first century.

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Lishawa, Shane C., Dale R. Bergdahl, and Scott D. Costa. "Winter conditions in eastern hemlock and mixed-hardwood deer wintering areas of Vermont." Canadian Journal of Forest Research 37, no. 3 (March 2007): 697–703. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/x06-256.

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In regions experiencing harsh winter, eastern hemlock ( Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carrière) is thought to moderate winter conditions and provide cover for white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus Zimmerman, 1780). In Vermont, USA, eastern hemlock is the dominant tree in many white-tailed deer wintering areas. Hemlock woolly adelgid ( Adelges tsugae Annand; HWA), an insect introduced from Asia, is causing widespread mortality of eastern hemlock. HWA cold-hardiness research and cold-hardiness zone climate models predict that HWA is capable of winter survival in portions of southern Vermont. This study quantifies the effects of eastern hemlock cover on winter temperatures and snow depths and assesses the effect of hemlock dominance on the winter severity values for white-tailed deer and on cold hardiness zone designations. Within site-paired eastern hemlock and hardwood stands, temperatures were recorded at 30 min intervals and snow depths were recorded every 2 weeks in the winters of 2003–2004 and 2004–2005. Extreme temperatures and snow depths were significantly moderated within hemlock stands. In southern Vermont, eastern hemlock mortality caused by HWA will alter these pockets of moderated microclimate, adding additional stress to white-tailed deer. Furthermore, the magnitude of temperature buffering in hemlock stands suggests that HWA may be capable of winter survival farther north than previously estimated.

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Perry, Elizabeth, Robert Manning, Xiao Xiao, and William Valliere. "Multiple Dimensions of Adaptations to Climate Change by Visitors to Vermont State Parks." Journal of Park and Recreation Administration 36, no. 2 (2018): 13–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.18666/jpra-2018-v36-i2-8308.

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Ryan, Kathryn. "Incorporating emotional geography into climate change research: A case study in Londonderry, Vermont, USA." Emotion, Space and Society 19 (May 2016): 5–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.emospa.2016.02.006.

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Oswald, Evan M., Jennifer Pontius, Shelly A. Rayback, Paul G. Schaberg, Sandra H. Wilmot, and Lesley-Ann Dupigny-Giroux. "The complex relationship between climate and sugar maple health: Climate change implications in Vermont for a key northern hardwood species." Forest Ecology and Management 422 (August 2018): 303–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2018.04.014.

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Ruggiero, Ryan, Donald Ross, and Joshua W. Faulkner. "Tile Drainage Flow Partitioning and Phosphorus Export in Vermont USA." Agriculture 12, no. 2 (January 25, 2022): 167. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12020167.

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Tile drainage (TD) has been identified as a potential non-point source of phosphorus (P) pollution and subsequent water quality issues. Three fields with TD in Vermont USA were monitored to characterize hydrology and P export. Fields were in corn silage and used minimal tillage and cover cropping practices. Preferential flow path (PFP) activity was explored by separating TD flow into flow pathway and source connectivity components using two hydrograph separation techniques, electrical conductivity end member unmixing, and hydrograph recession analysis. TD was the dominant P export pathway because of higher total discharge. Drought conditions during this study limited surface runoff, and possibly resulted in maximum PFP activity in the active clay soils. The non-growing season dominated annual P loading for two of the three study years. Peak P concentrations in TD occurred during events following manure injection in the fall, as well as in the spring post cover crop termination and post-planting. Intra-event analysis of rainfall pulses showed that TD flow and P concentrations were higher because of higher intensity pulses. This study highlights the impacts of current manure management, as well as the potential for climate change to increase P transport to TD.

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Wiltshire, Serge, and Brian Beckage. "Soil carbon sequestration through regenerative agriculture in the U.S. state of Vermont." PLOS Climate 1, no. 4 (April 11, 2022): e0000021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000021.

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This study investigates the extent to which land use and management transitions on Vermont’s farmland could sequester atmospheric carbon in the soil. We weigh the sequestration potential of several types of regenerative agricultural practices against both business as usual and afforestation scenarios using the Rothamsted Carbon Model. We split the study area into 13 Ecoregions for a finer spatial scale of analysis, with key climate, soil, and land use data specified for each. Empirical soil laboratory data are used to initialize the model to mirror current conditions under each of three agricultural land uses (crops, hay, and pasture) in each Ecoregion. We consult experts as well as the literature to parameterize the anticipated effects of alternative agricultural management practices on soil carbon inputs. In the simulation runs, we find that all non-business-as-usual scenarios sequester carbon over time, with a higher rate of sequestration in the decades immediately after a land use or management change. Among the regenerative agriculture scenarios, conversion to rotational grazing offers the highest soil carbon sequestration potential, at 1,269 kt, or 5.3% above current stocks after ten years. Of all scenarios, afforestation of farmland to non-harvested forest stores the most soil carbon, increasing stocks by 6.5% after ten years, and continuing to sequester at a high rate many decades into the future. We discuss tradeoffs and policy implications, especially in the context of the 2020 Vermont Global Warming Solutions Act, and suggest that payments for ecosystem services for farmers sequestering carbon may have strategic value.

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Spencer, Phoebe, Richard Watts, Luis Vivanco, and Brian Flynn. "The effect of environmental factors on bicycle commuters in Vermont: influences of a northern climate." Journal of Transport Geography 31 (July 2013): 11–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2013.05.003.

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Nevins, Matthias T., Anthony W. D'Amato, and Jane R. Foster. "Future forest composition under a changing climate and adaptive forest management in southeastern Vermont, USA." Forest Ecology and Management 479 (January 2021): 118527. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118527.

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Hanrahan, Janel, and Jason Shafer. "Improving Climate Change Literacy and Promoting Outreach in an Undergraduate Atmospheric Sciences Program." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 100, no. 7 (July 2019): 1209–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-17-0332.1.

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AbstractMitigation of human-caused climate change is essential to lessen the extent of future negative impacts, but many people are not aware of the urgency of the situation. For meaningful climate change action to be realized, accurate information must be conveyed by experts to nonexperts. Improved climate change literacy may thus be achieved in two ways. First, we must increase the number of scientists who are knowledgeable about climate change, and second, we must encourage these experts to engage with nonexperts and provide them with adequate resources to do so. Such efforts are currently being implemented in the undergraduate Atmospheric Sciences/Meteorology program (ATM) at Northern Vermont University–Lyndon. To increase knowledge, all ATM students regardless of career pathway are required to take courses that cover the science of human-caused climate change. They are then encouraged to communicate this knowledge to the public. Students are creating informational content for a department-run website and are regularly given opportunities to engage with the public at local schools and events. The results of these curricular and extracurricular changes are promising. Student interest in the topic of climate change has increased and they have demonstrated a heighted sense of responsibility to engage with the public about this challenging topic.

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Smith, Richard G., Sonja K. Birthisel, Sidney C. Bosworth, Bryan Brown, Thomas M. Davis, Eric R. Gallandt, Ann Hazelrigg, Eric Venturini, and Nicholas D. Warren. "Environmental Correlates with Germinable Weed Seedbanks on Organic Farms across Northern New England." Weed Science 66, no. 1 (August 24, 2017): 78–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/wsc.2017.40.

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The northern New England region includes the states of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine and encompasses a large degree of climate and edaphic variation across a relatively small spatial area, making it ideal for studying climate change impacts on agricultural weed communities. We sampled weed seedbanks and measured soil physical and chemical characteristics on 77 organic farms across the region and analyzed the relationships between weed community parameters and select geographic, climatic, and edaphic variables using multivariate procedures. Temperature-related variables (latitude, longitude, mean maximum and minimum temperature) were the strongest and most consistent correlates with weed seedbank composition. Edaphic variables were, for the most part, relatively weaker and inconsistent correlates with weed seedbanks. Our analyses also indicate that a number of agriculturally important weed species are associated with specific U.S. Department of Agriculture plant hardiness zones, implying that future changes in climate factors that result in geographic shifts in these zones will likely be accompanied by changes in the composition of weed communities and therefore new management challenges for farmers.

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Schattman, Rachel E., David Conner, and V. Ernesto Méndez. "Farmer perceptions of climate change risk and associated on-farm management strategies in Vermont, northeastern United States." Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene 4 (October 12, 2016): 000131. http://dx.doi.org/10.12952/journal.elementa.000131.

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Schattman, Rachel E., Stephanie E. Hurley, Holly L. Greenleaf, Meredith T. Niles, and Martha Caswell. "Visualizing Climate Change Adaptation: An Effective Tool for Agricultural Outreach?" Weather, Climate, and Society 12, no. 1 (January 2020): 47–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-19-0049.1.

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AbstractLandscape photovisualizations (PVZs) are digitally altered photographs that show existing landscapes altered to include a simulated future scenario. They are commonly used to support dialogue and decision-making in multistakeholder contexts. In agricultural sectors, stakeholders increasingly must contend with pressures to adapt to climatic changes and shifts in weather patterns. This study examines the potential of PVZs to engage agricultural stakeholders about climate change adaptation, specifically around best management practices (BMPs). In 2015, survey data were collected (n = 133) at six agricultural conferences Vermont. Participants were asked about their climate change knowledge, perceptions of adaptation, and their intentions to adopt or recommend one or more of the following BMPs: riparian buffers, drainage tiles with constructed wetlands, retention ponds, and silvopasture. In addition, respondents were asked about how well PVZs did or did not clarify their understanding of each BMP and its associated limiting factors. Results from five multivariate ordered logit models show an increase in interest among some agricultural stakeholders in adopting a BMP (among farmers) or recommending a BMP (among agricultural advisors) after seeing a PVZ depicting that practice. Interest in adoption or recommendation of BMPs was also more likely among respondents who believe that it is important for farms to adapt to climate change. Although PVZs are not common in agricultural outreach programs, these results suggest that PVZs are relevant to agricultural education and land-use decision-making, specifically in the domain of climate change adaptation.

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Gavin, Daniel G., Brian Beckage, and Benjamin Osborne. "Forest dynamics and the growth decline of red spruce and sugar maple on Bolton Mountain, Vermont: a comparison of modeling methods." Canadian Journal of Forest Research 38, no. 10 (October 2008): 2635–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/x08-106.

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Montane forests in the northeastern United States have experienced symptoms of declining vigor, such as branch dieback and increased mortality, over the last half-century. These declines have been attributed to the cumulative impacts of acid deposition, but reconstructing these declines from tree-ring records has proved difficult because of confounding factors that affect low-frequency growth patterns, including climate and natural growth trajectories following disturbance. We obtained tree-ring records of red spruce ( Picea rubens Sarg.) and sugar maple ( Acer saccharum L.) from three elevations on Bolton Mountain, Vermont, and applied traditional dendroclimatological analyses that revealed a profound declining growth–climate correlation since ca. 1970 for sugar maple but much less so for red spruce. We then applied a new multifaceted statistical approach that conservatively detrends tree-ring records by minimizing the influences of tree size, age, and canopy disturbances on radial growth. In contrast with the traditional analysis, this approach yielded chronologies that were consistently correlated with climate but with important exceptions. Low-elevation sugar maple suffered distinct episodes of slow growth, likely because of insect defoliators, and also a progressive decline since ca. 1988. Red spruce experienced subdecadal episodes of decline that may be related to freeze–thaw events known to injure foliage but showed no evidence of a progressive decline. This analysis was supported by a forest plot resurvey that indicated major declines in these species.

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Becot, F., T. L. Bradshaw, and D. Conner. "Growing apples for the cider industry in the US northern climate of Vermont: does the math add up?" Acta Horticulturae, no. 1205 (June 2018): 461–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.17660/actahortic.2018.1205.56.

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Thiffault, Nelson, Patricia Raymond, Jean-Martin Lussier, Isabelle Aubin, Samuel Royer-Tardif, Anthony W. D’Amato, Frédérik Doyon, et al. "Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change: From Concepts to Reality Report on a symposium held at Carrefour Forêts 2019." Forestry Chronicle 97, no. 01 (January 2021): 13–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.5558/tfc2021-004.

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As part of the Carrefour Forêts 2019 Conference, the forest research branch of Quebec’s Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs and the Canadian Wood Fibre Centre of Natural Resources Canada organized jointly the symposium “Adaptive silviculture to climate change: from concepts to reality”. The symposium brought together a hundred actors from the forest sector including engineers, biologists, technicians, private woodlot owners, professors, researchers and students. Speakers from different regions of Quebec and Vermont shared current knowledge related to adaptive silviculture in order to nurture reflexion and dialogue about actions that can be taken today to help forests to adapt with the anticipated changes. The symposium covered the theoretical framework of adaptive silviculture, then offered case studies of different ecosystems, innovative tools or research initiatives. The symposium also included presentations by practitioners who described the challenges and opportunities offered by adaptive silviculture in their professional practice. Based on an interactive discussion, participants identified increased drought events, partial cuttings and mixed-species plantations as important topics on which researchers and practitioners should interact in years to come.

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Schattman, Rachel E., V. Ernesto Méndez, Scott C. Merrill, and Asim Zia. "Mixed methods approach to understanding farmer and agricultural advisor perceptions of climate change and adaptation in Vermont, United States." Agroecology and Sustainable Food Systems 42, no. 2 (September 25, 2017): 121–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21683565.2017.1357667.

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Mandl, Maximilian Benedict, Bryan Nolan Shuman, Jeremiah Marsicek, and Laurie Grigg. "Estimating the regional climate signal in a late Pleistocene and early Holocene lake-sediment δ18O record from Vermont, USA." Quaternary Research 86, no. 1 (July 2016): 67–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2016.02.009.

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AbstractWe present a new oxygen isotope (δ18O) record from carbonate-rich lake sediments from central Vermont. The record from Twin Ponds spans from 13.5 cal ka BP (1950 AD) to present, but contains a 6 ka long hiatus starting shortly after 7.5 cal ka BP. We compare the record for ca. 13.5–7.5 cal ka BP with published δ18O data from the region after using a Bayesian approach to produce many possible chronologies for each site. Principal component analysis then identified chronologically-robust, multi-site oxygen isotope signals, including negative values during the Younger Dryas, but no significant deviations from the early Holocene mean of the regional records. However, differences among sites indicate significant trends that likely relate to interacting changes in the regional gradients of seasonal temperatures and precipitation as well as moisture sources, moisture pathways, and aridity that were controlled by large-scale climatic controls such as insolation, the progressive decline of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, and changes in oceanic circulation. Centennial shifts punctuate these trends at ca. 9.3 and 8.2 cal ka BP, and reveal that the local character of these short-lived features requires a detailed understanding of lake hydrology and regional isotopic gradients to yield reliable information for regional climate reconstructions.

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Brakenridge, G. Robert, Peter A. Thomas, Laura E. Conkey, and Jane C. Schiferle. "Fluvial Sedimentation in Response to Postglacial Uplift and Environmental Change, Missisquoi River, Vermont." Quaternary Research 30, no. 2 (September 1988): 190–203. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(88)90023-3.

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Three lithologically distinct alluvial units of Holocene age can be distinguished along trenched cross sections of the Missisquoi valley bottom. The oldest is of early Holocene age, and the associated floodplain had aggraded to nearly its present level by 8000 14C yr B.P. At that time, early Archaic projectile points were deposited in a fire hearth 50 cm below the surface. Abandonment of this floodplain was followed by the development of an A-E-Bt soil profile. Accumulation of a younger floodplain had begun by 6400 14C yr B.P. and local sedimentation persisted to ca. 500 14C yr B.P., as indicated by radiocarbon dates of buried woody debris (including large logs) and of charcoal. Alluvium of the modern floodplain began accreting after A.D. 1860 and contains machine-cut square nails, whiteware ceramics, and coal clinker. Previous locations of the river channel can be reconstructed from relict surfaces marked by paleosols, the preserved depositional stratigraphy, and the radiocarbon samples. Immediately after regression of the Champlain Sea from this part of the valley, and before 8000 14C yr B.P., the river incised late Fleistocene marine silts and clays at an average rate of at least 1 m/100 yr. After the interval of downcutting, episodic lateral migration became the dominant process, with the rate varying between 0 and 4 m/100 yr. The early Holocene incision was most likely a lagged response to postglacial crustal rebound, whereas strong soil development and floodplain stability between 8000 and 6400 14C yr B.P. may reflect an independently documented warmer, and perhaps drier, climate in New England at this time. Finally, the post-A.D. 1860 period of active floodplain sedimentation may have been a response to timber clear-cutting, row crop agriculture, and cattle and sheep grazing in the watershed.

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Coville, William, Bridget J. Griffin, and Bethany A. Bradley. "Identifying high-impact invasive plants likely to shift into northern New England with climate change." Invasive Plant Science and Management 14, no. 2 (March 31, 2021): 57–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/inp.2021.10.

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AbstractInvasive plants are expanding their ranges due to climate change, creating new challenges for invasive species management. Early detection and rapid response could address some nascent invasions, but limited resources make it impossible to monitor for every range-shifting species. Here, we aimed to create a more focused watch list by evaluating the impacts of 87 plant species projected to shift into northern New England (the states of Maine, New Hampshire, and/or Vermont). We used the Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT) protocol to evaluate all ecological impacts reported in the scientific literature, scoring ecological impacts from 1 (minimal concern) to 4 (major) depending on the level of reported impact. For each species, we also recorded any reported impacts on socioeconomic systems (agriculture, human health, or economics) as “present.” We found 24 range-shifting species with impacts on ecological communities, of which 22 have reported impacts in ecosystems common to northern New England. Almost all of these species also had impacts on socioeconomic systems and were available for purchase at ornamental plant retailers or online. Thus, these species can be considered high risk to northern New England with climate change based on their large negative impacts and potential to arrive quickly with deliberate human introduction. Our study demonstrates the use of impact assessments for creating targeted priority lists for invasive species monitoring and management.

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Laing, Frederick M., Paul E. Sendak, and John Aleong. "Species Trials for Biomass Production on Abandoned Farmland." Northern Journal of Applied Forestry 2, no. 2 (June 1, 1985): 43–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/njaf/2.2.43.

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Abstract As part of a nationwide study of the potential for woody crops to supply biomass for energy use, we evaluated seven hardwood tree species and six hybrid poplar clones on four different sites in Vermont, with three fertilizer treatments on some sites. Not all species were evaluated on all sites. Plots containing 25 trees were replicated three or four times at each site. Trees were planted at a spacing of 0.6 x 0.6 m or 0.9 x 0.9 m and grown for 3 years. The application of fertilizer did have significant effect on height, diameter, and stem weight. Species with high yields (about 16 oven-dry t/ha/year) included four of the hybrid poplars. Silver maple, black locust, and the other two hybrid poplars yielded about 10 oven-dry t/ha/year. Based on growth alone, these species and clones were recommended for short-rotation intensive culture in areas with similar climate and growing sites. North J. Appl. For. 2:43-47, June 1985.

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Kosiba, Alexandra M., Paul G. Schaberg, Shelly A. Rayback, and Gary J. Hawley. "Comparative growth trends of five northern hardwood and montane tree species reveal divergent trajectories and response to climate." Canadian Journal of Forest Research 47, no. 6 (June 2017): 743–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2016-0308.

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In the northeastern United States, tree declines associated with acid deposition induced calcium depletion have been documented, notably for red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) and sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.). There is conflicting evidence concerning whether co-occurring tree species capitalized on these declines or suffered similar growth reductions and on how growth has fluctuated relative to environmental variables. We examined five species along three elevational transects on Mt. Mansfield, Vermont: sugar maple, red spruce, red maple (Acer rubrum L.), yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis Britton), and balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.). We found baseline differences in growth. Red maple and yellow birch had the highest growth, sugar maple and red spruce had intermediate growth, and balsam fir had the lowest growth. While some year-to-year declines were associated with specific stress events, protracted patterns such as recent increases in red spruce and red maple growth were correlated with increased temperature and cooling degree days (heat index). For most species and elevations, there was a positive association between temperature and growth but a negative association with growth in the following year. Based on our comparisons, for some species, growth at Mt. Mansfield aligns with regional trends and suggests that patterns assessed here may be indicative of the broader region.

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Macias, Thomas. "Convergent links of social capital, sustainable practices, and support for cost-specified climate policy in two Vermont and Arizona Counties." Environmental Sociology 2, no. 2 (April 2, 2016): 220–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/23251042.2016.1144253.

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Winter, Jonathan M., Brian Beckage, Gabriela Bucini, Radley M. Horton, and Patrick J. Clemins. "Development and Evaluation of High-Resolution Climate Simulations over the Mountainous Northeastern United States." Journal of Hydrometeorology 17, no. 3 (March 1, 2016): 881–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-15-0052.1.

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Abstract The mountain regions of the northeastern United States are a critical socioeconomic resource for Vermont, New York State, New Hampshire, Maine, and southern Quebec. While global climate models (GCMs) are important tools for climate change risk assessment at regional scales, even the increased spatial resolution of statistically downscaled GCMs (commonly ~⅛°) is not sufficient for hydrologic, ecologic, and land-use modeling of small watersheds within the mountainous Northeast. To address this limitation, an ensemble of topographically downscaled, high-resolution (30″), daily 2-m maximum air temperature; 2-m minimum air temperature; and precipitation simulations are developed for the mountainous Northeast by applying an additional level of downscaling to intermediately downscaled (⅛°) data using high-resolution topography and station observations. First, observed relationships between 2-m air temperature and elevation and between precipitation and elevation are derived. Then, these relationships are combined with spatial interpolation to enhance the resolution of intermediately downscaled GCM simulations. The resulting topographically downscaled dataset is analyzed for its ability to reproduce station observations. Topographic downscaling adds value to intermediately downscaled maximum and minimum 2-m air temperature at high-elevation stations, as well as moderately improves domain-averaged maximum and minimum 2-m air temperature. Topographic downscaling also improves mean precipitation but not daily probability distributions of precipitation. Overall, the utility of topographic downscaling is dependent on the initial bias of the intermediately downscaled product and the magnitude of the elevation adjustment. As the initial bias or elevation adjustment increases, more value is added to the topographically downscaled product.

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Richardson, J. B., and A. J. Friedland. "Mercury in coniferous and deciduous upland forests in northern New England, USA: implications of climate change." Biogeosciences 12, no. 22 (November 26, 2015): 6737–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6737-2015.

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Abstract. Climatic changes in the northeastern US are expected to cause coniferous stands to transition to deciduous stands over the next hundred years. Mercury (Hg) sequestration in forest soils may change as a result. In order to understand potential effects of such a transition, we studied aboveground vegetation and soils at paired coniferous and deciduous stands on eight mountains in Vermont and New Hampshire, USA. Organic horizons at coniferous stands accumulated more total Hg (THg; 42 ± 6 g ha−1) than deciduous stands (30 ± 4 g ha−1). Total Hg pools in the mineral horizons were similar for coniferous (46 ± 8 g ha−1) and deciduous stands (45 ± 7 g ha−1). Soil properties (C, % clay, and pH) explained 56 % of the variation in mineral soil Hg concentration when multiply regressed. Foliar and bole wood Hg concentrations were generally greater for coniferous species than deciduous species. Using allometric equations, we estimated that aboveground accumulation of Hg in foliage and woody biomass was similar between vegetation types but that coniferous stands have significantly smaller annual litterfall fluxes (0.03 g ha−1 yr−1) than deciduous stands (0.24 g ha−1 yr−1). We conclude that organic horizon Hg accumulation is influenced by vegetation type but mineral horizon Hg accumulation is primarily controlled by soil properties. Further investigations into the effect of vegetation type on volatilization, atmospheric deposition, and leaching rates are needed to constrain regional Hg cycling rates.

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Barton, J., B. Gorte, M. S. R. S. Eusuf, and S. Zlatanova. "A VOXEL-BASED METHOD TO ESTIMATE NEAR-SURFACE AND ELEVATED FUEL FROM DENSE LIDAR POINT CLOUD FOR HAZARD REDUCTION BURNING." ISPRS Annals of Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences VI-3/W1-2020 (November 17, 2020): 3–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprs-annals-vi-3-w1-2020-3-2020.

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Abstract. Drastic changes in the climate has revised the face of disaster management: it is contributing to abnormal intensity, frequency and duration of extreme weather and climate events. The year 2020 started with more than 100 fires burning across Australia. Hazard reduction burning has become a resolute and primary land management technique that contribute to the reduction of bushfire severity. One of the key variables to consider for this application is fuel load, as the accumulation of vegetation in a forest profile affects the intensity of the burn. Conventionally, fuel loads are measured by manually cutting the vegetation and physically measuring the quantity after dry heating. This process is expensive, and time consuming. There is an opportunity for these techniques to be digitised and automated to give results in a timely manner and work as a decision support tool for practitioners. This paper proposes a voxel-based approach that can be used for estimating fuel load and percentage cover of the vegetation, at the elevated and near-surface fuel/vegetation layer as a method to augment manual estimation. We use an airborne LiDAR pointcloud dataset of Vermont Place Park, Newcastle, Australia to test the method. The preliminary inspection of the results confirms the technique that can approximate conventional manual method. Next steps include performance testing including more dataset to derive quantitative measures on the approach.

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Garcia, M. Elena, Lorraine P. Berkett, and Terry Bradshaw. "The Effect of Surround WP on Apple Productivity and Fruit Quality in a Vermont Apple Orchard." HortScience 40, no. 4 (July 2005): 1129B—1129. http://dx.doi.org/10.21273/hortsci.40.4.1129b.

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Surround WP, a kaolin clay-based biopesticide product, is a potential alternative to some organophosphates used in apple orchards for the management of pests, such as codling moth. In addition, Surround has been reported to have important nontarget horticultural impacts because of its effect on canopy temperature reduction. The label for use of Surround states: “When applied at recommended rates and frequencies, benefits such as increased plant vigor and improved yields may occur in certain apple cultivars.” However, most of the research on nontarget effects has been conducted in warmer, semiarid environments. The objectives of this 3-year (2002–04) interdisciplinary research project were to determine potential nontarget effects of Surround WP application on apple tree vigor, productivity, and fruit quality in the relatively cool and moist climate of the Northeast. The research was conducted at the UVM Horticultural Research Center in South Burlington, Vt., on `McIntosh'/M26 trees. The experiment used a completely randomized design with five treatments replicated six times. Each replicate consisted of single tree plots. Treatments included: 1) Surround beginning at green tip plus fungicides; 2) Surround beginning at green tip without fungicides; 3) Surround beginning at petal fall plus fungicides; 4) standard IPM; and 5) nontreated control. Results indicate no significant differences among treatments 1, 3, and 4 (treatments that included fungicide applications) in vegetative shoot length, spur characteristics, blossom number, fruit weight, firmness, soluble solids, and fruit calcium levels. Trees treated with Surround had significantly lower yield efficiencies in 2003 and 2004 than trees under IPM treatment.

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Richardson, J. B., and A. J. Friedland. "Mercury in coniferous and deciduous upland forests in Northern New England, USA: implications from climate change." Biogeosciences Discussions 12, no. 14 (July 22, 2015): 11463–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-11463-2015.

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Abstract. Climatic changes in the northeastern US are expected to cause coniferous stands to transition to deciduous stands over the next hundred years. Mercury (Hg) sequestration in forest soils may change as a result. In order to understand potential effects of this transition, we studied aboveground vegetation and soils at paired coniferous and deciduous stands on eight mountains in Vermont and New Hampshire, US. Organic horizons at coniferous stands accumulated more Total Hg (THg) (42 ± 6 g ha−1) than deciduous stands (30 ± 4 g ha−1). Total Hg pools in the mineral horizons were similar for coniferous (46 ± 8 g ha−1) and deciduous stands (45 ± 7 g ha−1). Soil properties (C, % clay, and pH) explained 56 % of the variation in mineral soil Hg concentration when multiple regressed. Foliar and bole wood Hg concentrations were generally greater for coniferous species than deciduous species. We estimated Hg mean residence time (MRT) in the organic and mineral horizons at coniferous and deciduous stands using a simple two-box model. Organic horizon MRT were longer at coniferous stands (183 ± 44 yr) than deciduous stands (65 ± 15 yr). Mineral soil horizon MRT values were also longer for coniferous stands (386 ± 57 yr) than for deciduous stands (188 ± 27 yr). We concluded that organic horizon Hg accumulation is influenced by vegetation type but mineral horizons are primarily affected by soil properties. Further investigations into the effect of vegetation type on volatilization, atmospheric deposition, and leaching rates are needed to constrain regional Hg cycling rates.

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Solomon, Barry D., and Adam M. Wellstead. "Shooting for Perfection: Hawaii’s Goal of 100% Renewable Energy Use." Case Studies in the Environment 2, no. 1 (2018): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/cse.2018.001073.

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In the United States, 29 states, Washington, D.C. and three territories have adopted a mandatory Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) for their electric power systems, while eight states and one territory have set renewable energy goals. Many foreign nations have adopted an RPS as well. Thus far, almost all RPSs across the United States have met their interim goals with targets and timetables that vary widely. Hawaii’s RPS is the most ambitious, with a 100% target set for 2045 (though Vermont set a 75% target for 2032). This paper provides a case study of the Hawai’i RPS. The paper focuses on geographical issues and perspectives that may tease out the course of the states’ electricity future: sensitivity to climate change, population distribution, interisland rivalries, as well as the need for greater energy storage and complementary policies. An important complexity is the challenge of meeting electricity demand on six separate Hawaiian Islands (because of the lack of an interisland transmission cable), although all of them have substantial renewable energy resources.

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Mann, Daniel H., F. Brett Engstrom, and Jill L. Bubier. "Fire History and Tree Recruitment in an Uncut New England Forest." Quaternary Research 42, no. 2 (September 1994): 206–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/qres.1994.1070.

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AbstractFire and forest histories in a hemlock-pine forest in Vermont have been reconstructed by dating fire scars and reconstructing the age distributions of living and dead trees. The ages of living red pines, white pines, and hemlocks show that most of the present forest germinated after a series of spatially overlapping fires between A.D. 1790 and 1850. The ages of cross-dated, dead red pines indicate that this was the third major recruitment interval for pines in this forest since ca. A.D. 1450. We interpret the fire scar and tree age data as recording ca. 50-yr intervals of increased fire frequency recurring every 100-200 yr in response to accumulating fuel loads that coincide with summer drought. The historical records of fires and tree ages, together with the present fuel load, suggest that the next interval of stand-regenerating fires is now overdue. Our success in cross-dating the remnants of dead red pines as old as the 15th century A.D. holds promise for extending reconstructions of fire, forest, and climate history in other parts of this tree's range.

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Bjerklie, David M., Thomas J. Trombley, and Roland J. Viger. "Simulations of Historical and Future Trends in Snowfall and Groundwater Recharge for Basins Draining to Long Island Sound." Earth Interactions 15, no. 34 (December 1, 2011): 1–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011ei374.1.

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Abstract A regional watershed model was developed for watersheds contributing to Long Island Sound, including the Connecticut River basin. The study region covers approximately 40 900 km2, extending from a moderate coastal climate zone in the south to a mountainous northern New England climate zone dominated by snowmelt in the north. The input data indicate that precipitation and temperature have been increasing for the last 46 years (1961–2006) across the region. Minimum temperature has increased more than maximum temperature over the same period (1961–2006). The model simulation indicates that there was an upward trend in groundwater recharge across most of the modeled region. However, trends in increasing precipitation and groundwater recharge are not significant at the 0.05 level if the drought of 1961–67 is removed from the time series. The trend in simulated snowfall is not significant across much of the region, although there is a significant downward trend in southeast Connecticut and in central Massachusetts. To simulate future trends, two input datasets, one assuming high carbon emissions and one assuming low carbon emissions, were developed from GCM forecasts. Under both of the carbon emission scenarios, simulations indicate that historical trends will continue, with increases in groundwater recharge over much of the region and substantial snowfall decreases across Massachusetts, Connecticut, southern Vermont, and southern New Hampshire. The increases in groundwater recharge and decreases in snowfall are most pronounced for the high emission scenario.

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Stern, Rebecca L., Paul G. Schaberg, Shelly A. Rayback, Paula F. Murakami, Christopher F. Hansen, and Gary J. Hawley. "Growth of canopy red oak near its northern range limit: current trends, potential drivers, and implications for the future." Canadian Journal of Forest Research 50, no. 10 (October 2020): 975–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2019-0200.

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Red oak (Quercus rubra L.) is projected to expand into the northern hardwood forest over the coming century. We explored the connection between red oak basal area growth and a number of factors (tree age and size, stand dynamics, site elevation, and climate and acid deposition variables) for 213 trees in 11 plots throughout Vermont, USA. Red oak growth generally increased over the course of the chronology (1935–2014) and has been particularly high in recent decades. Growth differed among elevational groups but did not differ between age or size groups. Summer moisture metrics were consistently and positively associated with growth, whereas fall moisture was associated with reduced growth in recent decades. Higher summer temperatures were often negatively associated with growth, though there was evidence that low temperatures in the summer (higher elevations) and fall (lower elevations) constrain growth. Several pollution metrics were associated with reduced growth, a surprising result for a species not known to be sensitive to inputs of acid deposition that have predisposed other species in the region to decline. While red oak growth is currently robust, increases in summer temperatures, reductions in growing season precipitation, or increases in fall precipitation could reduce future growth potential.

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Tignor, Milton E., Sandra B. Wilson, Lisa S. Hightower, Efren Fitz-Rodriguez, Gene A. Giacomelli, Chieri Kubota, Emily Rhoades, et al. "(145) Integrating Video, Interactive Animations, Images, and Assessment toward an Expandable Instructor Resource for Greenhouse Education." HortScience 40, no. 4 (July 2005): 1044C—1044. http://dx.doi.org/10.21273/hortsci.40.4.1044c.

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Using a multidisciplinary approach, we are creating an instrument for utilization in a variety of greenhouse related courses. We now have over 3 hours of edited and titled video segments that were obtained at different locations by the same videographer. The greenhouse businesses in Arizona, Vermont, Ohio, and Florida were chosen due to their unique business strategies, level of computerization, type of greenhouse construction, management philosophies, and climate challenges. Individual video segments are based on nine topics that were covered at each location including computers, structure, plant life cycle, and labor. The videos have been placed on a streaming media server and will be burned to a DVD. An interactive Flash-based greenhouse environment simulator is nearly complete. This instrument allows students to model greenhouse environments based on climate data from each of the four video locations. Additionally, a searchable digital repository has been established that will allow other participants to submit materials for educational use. This open source software (DSpace) has an integrated distribution license which streamlines compliance with the Digital Millennium Copyright Act. Several hundred high quality images have already been uploaded, described and tagged. Learning assessment tools based on numerical self-evaluation and verification narratives are also being developed in conjunction with the multimedia tools. We have created a database of all the greenhouse courses at 1862, 1890, and 1994 institutions and hope to build a community of teachers that will utilize and contribute to the multimedia greenhouse collection. This community has already grown to include two international greenhouse experts who contributed interactive software for educational use.

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Russell-Roy, Emily T., William S. Keeton, Jennifer A. Pontius, and Charles D. Kerchner. "Rehabilitation forestry and carbon market access onhigh-graded northern hardwood forests." Canadian Journal of Forest Research 44, no. 6 (June 2014): 614–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2013-0437.

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Decades of heavy-cutting and high-grading in the northeastern United States provide an opportunity for rehabilitation and increased carbon stores, yet few studies have examined the feasibility of using carbon markets to restore high-graded forests. We evaluated the effectiveness of rehabilitation on 391 ha of high-graded forest in Vermont, USA. Thirteen silvicultural scenarios were modeled over 100 years using the Forest Vegetation Simulator. Carbon offsets were quantified with the Climate Action Reserve (CAR) and American Carbon Registry (ACR) protocols and evaluated under voluntary and regulatory carbon price assumptions. Results indicate that management scenarios involving no harvest or low-intensity harvest yield the greatest incentives, yet these scenarios include a range of short-term rehabilitation options that provide flexibility for landowners. The choice of protocol also significantly influences results. Although ACR consistently generated more offsets than CAR for the same scenarios (p < 0.05), the protocols yielded similar net present values of US$121–US$256·ha−1 under high offset price assumptions. These returns are comparable to those generated from timber harvest alone under more intensive management scenarios. While timber will continue to be a primary source of revenue for many landowners, carbon markets may increasingly appeal as a new incentive for restoring high-graded forests.

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Smith, Kimberly J., William S. Keeton, Mark J. Twery, and Donald R. Tobi. "Understory plant responses to uneven-aged forestry alternatives in northern hardwood–conifer forests." Canadian Journal of Forest Research 38, no. 6 (June 2008): 1303–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/x07-236.

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The understory layer encompasses the majority of plant species diversity in forested ecosystems and may be sensitive to timber harvest disturbance. We hypothesize that (i) uneven-aged, low-intensity silvicultural systems can maintain understory plant diversity and support late-successional species following harvest disturbance; (ii) retaining and enhancing stand structural complexity can increase understory plant diversity in northern hardwood–conifer forests; and (iii) plant responses are influenced by interactions among canopy structure, soils, and climate processes. Experimental treatments include single-tree selection and group selection, both modified to increase structural retention, and a third technique designed to promote late-successional forest structure and function, structural complexity enhancement. Four replications of each treatment were applied to 2 ha units in Vermont and New York, USA. Understory vegetation was monitored 2 years pre- and 4 years post-treatment. Results show that over time, understory responses were strongly affected by overstory treatment and less influenced by soils and drought. All treatments succeeded at maintaining overall composition and diversity. However, late-successional diversity increased significantly in structural complexity enhancement units compared with group selection units. These results indicate that while conventional uneven-aged systems can maintain understory plant diversity, variations that retain or enhance structural complexity may be more effective at retaining late-successional species.

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Richardson, Justin B., and Jahziel K. Chase. "Transfer of Macronutrients, Micronutrients, and Toxic Elements from Soil to Grapes to White Wines in Uncontaminated Vineyards." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 24 (December 16, 2021): 13271. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph182413271.

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Wine is a popular beverage and may be a source of nutrient and toxic elements during human consumption. Here, we explored the variation in nutrient and toxic elements from soils to grape berries and commercial white wines (Chardonnay) at five USA vineyards (New York, Vermont, California, Virginia) with strongly contrasting geology, soils, and climates. Samples were analyzed for macronutrients (Ca, K, and Mg), micronutrients (Mn, Cu, and Zn), and toxic elements (As, Cd, and Pb). Our study showed contrasting macronutrient, micronutrient, and toxic element concentrations in soils and in vines, leaves, and grapes. However, plant tissue concentrations did not correspond with total soil concentrations, suggesting a disconnect governing their accumulation. Bioconcentration factors for soil to grape berry transfer suggest the accumulation of Ca, K and Mg in berries while Fe, Mn, Cu, Zn, and Pb were generally not accumulated in our study or in previous studies. Wines from the five vineyards studied had comparable nutrient, micronutrient, and toxic metal concentrations as wines from Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Croatia, Czech Republic, and Japan. The transfer of nutrients and toxic elements from grape berries to wine indicated that only Ca, K, and Mg were added or retained while concentrations of all other micronutrients and toxic elements were somewhat to extensively diminished. Thus, there appears to be a substantial effect on the geochemistry of the wine from the grape from either the fermentation process (i.e., flocculation), or a dilution effect. We conclude that soils, geology, and climate do not appear to generate a unique geochemical terroir as the transfer and concentration of inorganic nutrients appear to be comparable across strongly contrasting vineyards. This has several implications for human health. Nutrients in wine have potential impacts for human nutrition, as wine can meet or exceed the recommended dietary requirements of Ca, K, Mg, and Fe, and toxic metals As and Pb concentrations were also non-trivial.

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Diehl, Rebecca M., Jesse D. Gourevitch, Stephanie Drago, and Beverley C. Wemple. "Improving flood hazard datasets using a low-complexity, probabilistic floodplain mapping approach." PLOS ONE 16, no. 3 (March 29, 2021): e0248683. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0248683.

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As runoff patterns shift with a changing climate, it is critical to effectively communicate current and future flood risks, yet existing flood hazard maps are insufficient. Modifying, extending, or updating flood inundation extents is difficult, especially over large scales, because traditional floodplain mapping approaches are data and resource intensive. Low-complexity floodplain mapping techniques are promising alternatives, but their simplistic representation of process falls short of capturing inundation patterns in all situations or settings. To address these needs and deficiencies, we formalize and extend the functionality of the Height Above Nearest Drainage (i.e., HAND) floodplain mapping approach into the probHAND model by incorporating an uncertainty analysis. With publicly available datasets, the probHAND model can produce probabilistic floodplain maps for large areas relatively rapidly. We describe the modeling approach and then provide an example application in the Lake Champlain Basin, Vermont, USA. Uncertainties translate to on-the-ground changes to inundated areas, or floodplain widths, in the study area by an average of 40%. We found that the spatial extent of probable inundation captured the distribution of observed and modeled flood extents well, suggesting that low-complexity models may be sufficient for representing inundation extents in support of flood risk and conservation mapping applications, especially when uncertainties in parameter inputs and process simplifications are accounted for. To improve the accuracy of flood hazard datasets, we recommend investing limited resources in accurate topographic datasets and improved flood frequency analyses. Such investments will have the greatest impact on decreasing model output variability, therefore increasing the certainty of flood inundation extents.

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Villarini, Gabriele, Radoslaw Goska, James A. Smith, and Gabriel A. Vecchi. "North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones and U.S. Flooding." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 95, no. 9 (September 1, 2014): 1381–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-13-00060.1.

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Riverine flooding associated with North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) is responsible for large societal and economic impacts. The effects of TC flooding are not limited to the coastal regions, but affect large areas away from the coast, and often away from the center of the storm. Despite these important repercussions, inland TC flooding has received relatively little attention in the scientific literature, although there has been growing media attention following Hurricanes Irene (2011) and Sandy (2012). Based on discharge data from 1981 to 2011, the authors provide a climatological view of inland flooding associated with TCs, leveraging the wealth of discharge measurements collected, archived, and disseminated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Florida and the eastern seaboard of the United States (from South Carolina to Maine and Vermont) are the areas that are the most susceptible to TC flooding, with typical TC flood peaks that are 2 to 6 times larger than the local 10-yr flood peak, causing major flooding. A secondary swath of extensive TC-induced flooding in the central United States is also identified. These results indicate that flooding from TCs is not solely a coastal phenomenon but affects much larger areas of the United States, as far inland as Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Moreover, the authors highlight the dependence of the frequency and magnitude of TC flood peaks on large-scale climate indices, and the role played by the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO), suggesting potential sources of extended-range predictability.

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Weiss, Hannah S., Paul R. Bierman, Yves Dubief, and Scott D. Hamshaw. "Optimization of over-summer snow storage at midlatitudes and low elevation." Cryosphere 13, no. 12 (December 17, 2019): 3367–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3367-2019.

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Abstract. Climate change, including warmer winter temperatures, a shortened snowfall season, and more rain-on-snow events, threatens nordic skiing as a sport. In response, over-summer snow storage, attempted primarily using woodchips as a cover material, has been successfully employed as a climate change adaptation strategy by high-elevation and/or high-latitude ski centers in Europe and Canada. Such storage has never been attempted at a site that is both low elevation and midlatitude, and few studies have quantified storage losses repeatedly through the summer. Such data, along with tests of different cover strategies, are prerequisites to optimizing snow storage strategies. Here, we assess the rate at which the volume of two woodchip-covered snow piles (each ∼200 m3), emplaced during spring 2018 in Craftsbury, Vermont (45∘ N and 360 m a.s.l.), changed. We used these data to develop an optimized snow storage strategy. In 2019, we tested that strategy on a much larger, 9300 m3 pile. In 2018, we continually logged air-to-snow temperature gradients under different cover layers including rigid foam, open-cell foam, and woodchips both with and without an underlying insulating blanket and an overlying reflective cover. We also measured ground temperatures to a meter depth adjacent to the snow piles and used a snow tube to measure snow density. During both years, we monitored volume change over the melt season using terrestrial laser scanning every 10–14 d from spring to fall. In 2018, snow volume loss ranged from 0.29 to 2.81 m3 d−1, with the highest rates in midsummer and lowest rates in the fall; mean rates of volumetric change were 1.24 and 1.50 m3 d−1, 0.55 % to 0.72 % of initial pile volume per day. Snow density did increase over time, but most volume loss was the result of melting. Wet woodchips underlain by an insulating blanket and covered with a reflective sheet were the most effective cover combination for minimizing melt, likely because the aluminized surface reflected incoming short-wave radiation while the wet woodchips provided significant thermal mass, allowing much of the energy absorbed during the day to be lost by long-wave emission at night. The importance of the pile surface-area-to-volume ratio is demonstrated by 4-fold lower rates of volumetric change for the 9300 m3 pile emplaced in 2019; it lost <0.16 % of its initial volume per day between April and October, retaining ∼60 % of the initial snow volume over summer. Together, these data demonstrate the feasibility of over-summer snow storage at midlatitudes and low elevations and suggest efficient cover strategies.

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Laird, Neil F., Jared Desrochers, and Melissa Payer. "Climatology of Lake-Effect Precipitation Events over Lake Champlain." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 48, no. 2 (February 1, 2009): 232–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008jamc1923.1.

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Abstract This study provides the first long-term climatological analysis of lake-effect precipitation events that developed in relation to a small lake (having a surface area of ≤1500 km2). The frequency and environmental conditions favorable for Lake Champlain lake-effect precipitation were examined for the nine winters (October–March) from 1997/98 through 2005/06. Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from Burlington, Vermont, were used to identify 67 lake-effect events. Events occurred as 1) well-defined, isolated lake-effect bands over and downwind of the lake, independent of larger-scale precipitating systems (LC events), 2) quasi-stationary lake-effect bands over the lake embedded within extensive regional precipitation from a synoptic weather system (SYNOP events), or 3) a transition from SYNOP and LC lake-effect precipitation. The LC events were found to occur under either a northerly or a southerly wind regime. An examination of the characteristics of these lake-effect events provides several unique findings that are useful for comparison with known lake-effect environments for larger lakes. January was the most active month with an average of nearly four lake-effect events per winter, and approximately one of every four LC events occurred with southerly winds. Event initiation and dissipation occurred on a diurnal time scale with an average duration of 12.1 h. In general, Lake Champlain lake-effect events 1) typically yielded snowfall, with surface air temperatures rarely above 0°C, 2) frequently had an overlake mesolow present with a sea level pressure departure of 3–5 hPa, 3) occurred in a very stable environment with a surface inversion frequently present outside the Lake Champlain Valley, and 4) averaged a surface lake–air temperature difference of 14.4°C and a lake–850-hPa temperature difference of 18.2°C. Lake Champlain lake-effect events occur within a limited range of wind and temperature conditions, thus providing events that are more sensitive to small changes in environmental conditions than are large-lake lake-effect events and offering a more responsive system for subsequent investigation of connections between mesoscale processes and climate variability.

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Journal articles on the topic 'Vermont – Climate'

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