Journal articles: 'Vent Opening Probability map'

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Cappello, A., M. Neri, V. Acocella, G. Gallo, A. Vicari, and C. Del Negro. "Spatial vent opening probability map of Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy)." Bulletin of Volcanology 74, no. 9 (September 2, 2012): 2083–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00445-012-0647-4.

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Selva, Jacopo, Giovanni Orsi, Mauro Antonio Di Vito, Warner Marzocchi, and Laura Sandri. "Probability hazard map for future vent opening at the Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy." Bulletin of Volcanology 74, no. 2 (September 27, 2011): 497–510. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00445-011-0528-2.

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Bevilacqua, Andrea, Marcus Bursik, Abani Patra, E. Pitman, and Ryan Till. "Bayesian construction of a long-term vent opening probability map in the Long Valley volcanic region (CA, USA)." Statistics in Volcanology 3 (August 2017): 1–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.5038/2163-338x.3.1.

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Bartolini, S., A. Cappello, J. Martí, and C. Del Negro. "QVAST: a new Quantum GIS plugin for estimating volcanic susceptibility." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions 1, no. 4 (August 22, 2013): 4223–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-4223-2013.

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Abstract. One of the most important tasks of modern volcanology is the construction of hazard maps simulating different eruptive scenarios that can be used in risk-based decision-making in land-use planning and emergency management. The first step in the quantitative assessment of volcanic hazards is the development of susceptibility maps, i.e. the spatial probability of a future vent opening given the past eruptive activity of a volcano. This challenging issue is generally tackled using probabilistic methods that use the calculation of a kernel function at each data location to estimate probability density functions (PDFs). The smoothness and the modeling ability of the kernel function are controlled by the smoothing parameter, also known as the bandwidth. Here we present a new tool, QVAST, part of the open-source Geographic Information System Quantum GIS, that is designed to create user-friendly quantitative assessments of volcanic susceptibility. QVAST allows to select an appropriate method for evaluating the bandwidth for the kernel function on the basis of the input parameters and the shapefile geometry, and can also evaluate the PDF with the Gaussian kernel. When different input datasets are available for the area, the total susceptibility map is obtained by assigning different weights to each of the PDFs, which are then combined via a weighted summation and modeled in a non-homogeneous Poisson process. The potential of QVAST, developed in a free and user-friendly environment, is here shown through its application in the volcanic fields of Lanzarote (Canary Islands) and La Garrotxa (NE Spain).

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Bartolini, S., A. Cappello, J. Martí, and C. Del Negro. "QVAST: a new Quantum GIS plugin for estimating volcanic susceptibility." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 13, no. 11 (November 27, 2013): 3031–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3031-2013.

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Abstract. One of the most important tasks of modern volcanology is the construction of hazard maps simulating different eruptive scenarios that can be used in risk-based decision making in land-use planning and emergency management. The first step in the quantitative assessment of volcanic hazards is the development of susceptibility maps (i.e., the spatial probability of a future vent opening given the past eruptive activity of a volcano). This challenging issue is generally tackled using probabilistic methods that use the calculation of a kernel function at each data location to estimate probability density functions (PDFs). The smoothness and the modeling ability of the kernel function are controlled by the smoothing parameter, also known as the bandwidth. Here we present a new tool, QVAST, part of the open-source geographic information system Quantum GIS, which is designed to create user-friendly quantitative assessments of volcanic susceptibility. QVAST allows the selection of an appropriate method for evaluating the bandwidth for the kernel function on the basis of the input parameters and the shapefile geometry, and can also evaluate the PDF with the Gaussian kernel. When different input data sets are available for the area, the total susceptibility map is obtained by assigning different weights to each of the PDFs, which are then combined via a weighted summation and modeled in a non-homogeneous Poisson process. The potential of QVAST, developed in a free and user-friendly environment, is here shown through its application in the volcanic fields of Lanzarote (Canary Islands) and La Garrotxa (NE Spain).

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Del Negro, Ciro, Annalisa Cappello, Giuseppe Bilotta, Gaetana Ganci, Alexis Hérault, and Vito Zago. "Living at the edge of an active volcano: Risk from lava flows on Mt. Etna." GSA Bulletin 132, no. 7-8 (November 21, 2019): 1615–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/b35290.1.

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Abstract Lava flows represent the greatest threat by far to exposed population and infrastructure on Mt. Etna, Italy. The increasing exposure of a larger population, which has almost tripled in the area around Mt. Etna during the past 150 years, has resulted from poor assessment of the volcanic hazard and inappropriate land use in vulnerable areas. Here we quantify the lava flow risk on the flanks of Mt. Etna volcano using a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based approach that integrates the hazard with the exposure of elements at stake. The hazard, which shows the long-term probability related to lava flow inundation, is obtained by combining three different kinds of information: the spatiotemporal probability of new flank eruptive vents opening in the future, the event probability associated with classes of expected eruptions, and the overlapping of lava flow paths simulated by the MAGFLOW model. Data including all exposed elements were gathered from institutional web portals and high-resolution satellite imagery and organized in four thematic layers: population, buildings, service networks, and land use. The total exposure is given by a weighted linear combination of the four thematic layers, where weights are calculated using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The resulting risk map shows the likely damage caused by a lava flow eruption and allows rapid visualization of the areas subject to the greatest losses if a flank eruption were to occur on Mt. Etna. The highest risk is found in the southeastern flank due to the combination of high hazard and population density.

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Bevilacqua, Andrea, Alvaro Aravena, Augusto Neri, Eduardo Gutiérrez, Demetrio Escobar, Melida Schliz, Alessandro Aiuppa, and Raffaello Cioni. "Thematic vent opening probability maps and hazard assessment of small-scale pyroclastic density currents in the San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua)." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 21, no. 5 (May 28, 2021): 1639–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1639-2021.

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Abstract. The San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua) have been characterized by a significant variability in eruption style and vent location. Densely inhabited cities are built on them and their surroundings, including the metropolitan areas of San Salvador (∼2.4 million people) and Managua (∼1.4 million people), respectively. In this study we present novel vent opening probability maps for these volcanic complexes, which are based on a multi-model approach that relies on kernel density estimators. In particular, we present thematic vent opening maps, i.e., we consider different hazardous phenomena separately, including lava emission, small-scale pyroclastic density currents, ejection of ballistic projectiles, and low-intensity pyroclastic fallout. Our volcanological dataset includes: (1) the location of past vents, (2) the mapping of the main fault structures, and (3) the eruption styles of past events, obtained from critical analysis of the literature and/or inferred from volcanic deposits and morphological features observed remotely and in the field. To illustrate the effects of considering the expected eruption style in the construction of vent opening maps, we focus on the analysis of small-scale pyroclastic density currents derived from phreatomagmatic activity or from low-intensity magmatic volcanism. For the numerical simulation of these phenomena we adopted the recently developed branching energy cone model by using the program ECMapProb. Our results show that the implementation of thematic vent opening maps can produce significantly different hazard levels from those estimated with traditional, non-thematic maps.

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Giudicepietro, Flora, G. Macedonio, L. D’Auria, and M. Martini. "Insight into Vent Opening Probability in Volcanic Calderas in the Light of a Sill Intrusion Model." Pure and Applied Geophysics 173, no. 5 (November 5, 2015): 1703–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00024-015-1190-y.

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Tadini, Alessandro, Andrew Harris, Julie Morin, Andrew Bevilacqua, Aline Peltier, Willy Aspinall, Stefano Ciolli, et al. "Structured elicitation of expert judgement in real-time eruption scenarios: an exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island." Volcanica 5, no. 1 (May 4, 2022): 105–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.30909/vol.05.01.105131.

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Formalised elicitation of expert judgements has been used to help tackle several problematic societal issues, including volcanic crises and pandemic threats. We present an expert elicitation exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island, held remotely in April 2021. This involved 28 experts from nine countries who considered a hypothetical effusive eruption crisis involving a new vent opening in a high-risk area. The tele-elicitation presented several challenges, but is a promising and workable option for application to future volcanic crises. Our exercise considered an “uncommon” eruptive scenario with a vent outside the present caldera and within inhabited areas, and provided uncertainty ranges for several hazard-related questions for such a scenario (e.g. probability of eruption within a defined timeframe; elapsed time until lava flow reaches a critical location, and other hazard management issues). Our exercise indicated that such a scenario would probably present very different characteristics compared to recent eruptions, and that it is fundamental to include well-prepared expert elicitations in updated civil protection evacuation plans to improve disaster response procedures.

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Zhang, Jianxi, Zhigang Cheng, Ying Tian, Lili Weng, Yiying Zhang, Xin Yang, Michael K. E. Schäfer, Qulian Guo, and Changsheng Huang. "Cerebral Tissue Oxygen Saturation Correlates with Emergence from Propofol-Remifentanil Anesthesia: An Observational Cohort Study." Journal of Clinical Medicine 11, no. 16 (August 19, 2022): 4878. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm11164878.

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Anesthesia emergence is accompanied by changes in cerebral circulation. It is unknown whether cerebral tissue oxygen saturation (SctO2) could be an indicator of emergence. Changes in SctO2, bispectral index (BIS), mean arterial pressure (MAP), and heart rate (HR) were evaluated during the emergence from propofol-remifentanil anesthesia. At the time of cessation of anesthetic delivery, SctO2, BIS, MAP, and HR values were recorded as baseline. The changes of these parameters from the baseline were recorded as Δ SctO2, Δ BIS, Δ MAP, and Δ HR. The behavioral signs (body movement, coughing, or eye opening) and response to commands (indicating regaining of consciousness) were used to define emergence states. Prediction probability (Pk) was used to examine the accuracy of SctO2, BIS, MAP, and HR as indicators of emergence. SctO2 showed an abrupt and distinctive increase when appearing behavioral signs. BIS, MAP, and HR, also increased but with a large inter-individual variability. Pk value of Δ SctO2 was 0.97 to predict the appearance behavioral signs from 2 min before that, which was much higher than the Pk values of Δ BIS (0.81), Δ MAP (0.71) and Δ HR (0.87). The regaining of consciousness was associated with a further increase in the SctO2 value.

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Mathai, Varghese, Asimanshu Das, and Kenneth Breuer. "Aerosol transmission in passenger car cabins: Effects of ventilation configuration and driving speed." Physics of Fluids 34, no. 2 (February 2022): 021904. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0079555.

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Identifying the potential routes of airborne transmission during transportation is of critical importance to limit the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Here, we numerically solve the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations along with the transport equation for a passive scalar in order to study aerosol transmission inside the passenger cabin of an automobile. Extending the previous work on this topic, we explore several driving scenarios including the effects of having the windows fully open, half-open, and one-quarter open, the effect of opening a moon roof, and the scaling of the aerosol transport as a function of vehicle speed. The flow in the passenger cabin is largely driven by the external surface pressure distribution on the vehicle, and the relative concentration of aerosols in the cabin scales inversely with vehicle speed. For the simplified geometry studied here, we find that the half-open windows configuration has almost the same ventilation effectively as the one with the windows fully open. The utility of the moonroof as an effective exit vent for removing the aerosols generated within the cabin space is discussed. Using our results, we propose a “speed–time” map, which gives guidance regarding the relative risk of transmission between driver and passenger as a function of trip duration and vehicle speed. A few strategies for the removal of airborne contaminants during low-speed driving, or in a situation where the vehicle is stuck in traffic, are suggested.

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Tadini, A., A. Bevilacqua, A. Neri, R. Cioni, W. P. Aspinall, M. Bisson, R. Isaia, et al. "Assessing future vent opening locations at the Somma-Vesuvio volcanic complex: 2. Probability maps of the caldera for a future Plinian/sub-Plinian event with uncertainty quantification." Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 122, no. 6 (June 2017): 4357–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016jb013860.

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Chevrel, Magdalena Oryaëlle, Massimiliano Favalli, Nicolas Villeneuve, Andrew J. L. Harris, Alessandro Fornaciai, Nicole Richter, Allan Derrien, Patrice Boissier, Andrea Di Muro, and Aline Peltier. "Lava flow hazard map of Piton de la Fournaise volcano." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 21, no. 8 (August 9, 2021): 2355–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2355-2021.

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Abstract. Piton de la Fournaise, situated on La Réunion island (France), is one of the most active hot spot basaltic shield volcanoes worldwide, experiencing at least two eruptions per year since the establishment of the volcanological observatory in 1979. Eruptions are typically fissure-fed and form extensive lava flow fields. About 95 % of some ∼ 250 historical events (since the first confidently dated eruption in 1708) have occurred inside an uninhabited horseshoe-shaped caldera (hereafter referred to as the Enclos), which is open to the ocean on its eastern side. Rarely (12 times since the 18th century), fissures have opened outside of the Enclos, where housing units, population centers, and infrastructure are at risk. In such a situation, lava flow hazard maps are a useful way of visualizing lava flow inundation probabilities over large areas. Here, we present the up-to-date lava flow hazard map for Piton de la Fournaise based on (i) vent distribution, (ii) lava flow recurrence times, (iii) statistics of lava flow lengths, and (iv) simulations of lava flow paths using the DOWNFLOW stochastic numerical model. The map of the entire volcano highlights the spatial distribution probability of future lava flow invasion for the medium to long term (years to decades). It shows that the most probable location for future lava flow is within the Enclos (where there are areas with up to 12 % probability), a location visited by more than 100 000 visitors every year. Outside of the Enclos, probabilities reach 0.5 % along the active rift zones. Although lava flow hazard occurrence in inhabited areas is deemed to be very low (< 0.1 %), it may be underestimated as our study is only based on post-18th century records and neglects older events. We also provide a series of lava flow hazard maps inside the Enclos, computed on a multi-temporal (i.e., regularly updated) topography. Although hazard distribution remains broadly the same over time, some changes are noticed throughout the analyzed periods due to improved digital elevation model (DEM) resolution, the high frequency of eruptions that constantly modifies the topography, and the lava flow dimensional characteristics and paths. The lava flow hazard map for Piton de la Fournaise presented here is reliable and trustworthy for long-term hazard assessment and land use planning and management. Specific hazard maps for short-term hazard assessment (e.g., for responding to volcanic crises) or considering the cycles of activity at the volcano and different event scenarios (i.e., events fed by different combinations of temporally evolving superficial and deep sources) are required for further assessment of affected areas in the future – especially by atypical but potentially extremely hazardous large-volume eruptions. At such an active site, our method supports the need for regular updates of DEMs and associated lava flow hazard maps if we are to be effective in keeping up to date with mitigation of the associated risks.

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Ma, Yao, Jiangnan Zhao, Yu Sui, Shili Liao, and Zongyao Zhang. "Application of Knowledge-Driven Methods for Mineral Prospectivity Mapping of Polymetallic Sulfide Deposits in the Southwest Indian Ridge between 46° and 52°E." Minerals 10, no. 11 (October 30, 2020): 970. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/min10110970.

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As a product of hydrothermal activity, seafloor polymetallic sulfide deposit has become the focus of marine mineral exploration due to its great prospects for mineralization potential. The mineral prospectivity mapping is a multiple process that involves weighting and integrating evidential layers to further explore the potential target areas, which can be categorized into data-driven and knowledge-driven methods. This paper describes the application of fuzzy logic and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) models to process the data of the Southwest Indian Ocean Mid-Ridge seafloor sulfide deposit and delineate prospect areas. Nine spatial evidential layers representing the controlling factors for the formation and occurrence of polymetallic sulfide deposit were extracted to establish a prospecting prediction model. Fuzzy logic and fuzzy AHP models combine expert experience and fuzzy sets to assign weights to each layer and integrate the evidence layers to generate prospectivity map. Based on prediction-area (P-A) model, the optimal gamma operator (γ) values were determined to be 0.95 and 0.90 for fuzzy logic and fuzzy AHP to synthesize the evidence layers. The concentration-area (C-A) fractal method was used to classify different levels of metallogenic probability by determining corresponding thresholds. Finally, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were applied to measure the performance of the two prospectivity models. The results show that the areas under the ROC curve of the fuzzy logic and the fuzzy AHP model are 0.813 and 0.887, respectively, indicating that prediction based on knowledge-driven methods can effectively predict the metallogenic favorable area in the study area, opening the door for future exploration of seafloor polymetallic sulfide deposits.

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Queiroz Zorzeto Cesar, Thais, Paulo Ademar Martins Leal, Omar Carvalho Branquinho, and Felipe Antonio Moura Miranda. "Wireless sensor network to identify the reduction of meteorological gradients in greenhouse in subtropical conditions." Journal of Agricultural Engineering, November 13, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4081/jae.2020.1105.

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Spatial and temporal monitoring of temperature and relative humidity is essential for greenhouse management, therefore, wireless sensor networks (WSN) can offer crucial advantages. The objective of this work was to use a WSN to characterize and map the horizontal and vertical variability of air temperature and relative humidity inside a greenhouse using five different configurations. The configurations were based on combinations between the following actuating mechanisms: i) mechanical ventilation (by two exhaust fans); ii) natural ventilation (through the roof vent openings); iii) shading through the use of thermo-reflective screen. The WSN was designed with 45 spatially distributed measuring points, and the air temperature and relative humidity were recorded automatically every 30 seconds, for ten consecutive days, for each configuration. Our results show that the horizontal and vertical homogeneity of the meteorological elements depends on the actuating mechanism used in the greenhouse. Mechanical ventilation approximated the temperature and relative humidity of the indoor and outdoor air, with a homogeneous horizontal distribution throughout the environment. Opening the roof vent reduced vertical gradients of temperature and relative humidity. Our observations also showed that the combination of the use of roof vent openings with mechanical ventilation is an effective way to achieve horizontal homogeneity of meteorological elements.

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Constantinescu, Robert, Karime González-Zuccolotto, Dolors Ferrés, Katrin Sieron, Claus Siebe, Charles Connor, Lucia Capra, and Roberto Tonini. "Probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment at an active but under-monitored volcano: Ceboruco, Mexico." Journal of Applied Volcanology 11, no. 1 (August 19, 2022). http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13617-022-00119-w.

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AbstractA probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA) for Ceboruco volcano (Mexico) is reported using PyBetVH, an e-tool based on the Bayesian Event Tree (BET) methodology. Like many volcanoes, Ceboruco is under-monitored. Despite several eruptions in the late Holocene and efforts by several university and government groups to create and sustain a monitoring network, this active volcano is monitored intermittently rather than continuously by dedicated groups. With no consistent monitoring data available, we look at the geology and the eruptive history to inform prior models used in the PVHA. We estimate the probability of a magmatic eruption within the next time window (1 year) of ~ 0.002. We show how the BET creates higher probabilities in the absence of monitoring data, which if available would better inform the prior distribution. That is, there is a cost in terms of higher probabilities and higher uncertainties for having not yet developed a sustained volcano monitoring network. Next, three scenarios are developed for magmatic eruptions: i) small magnitude (effusive/explosive), ii) medium magnitude (Vulcanian/sub-Plinian) and iii) large magnitude (Plinian). These scenarios are inferred from the Holocene history of the volcano, with their related hazardous phenomena: ballistics, tephra fallout, pyroclastic density currents, lahars and lava flows. We present absolute probability maps (unconditional in terms of eruption size and vent location) for a magmatic eruption at Ceboruco volcano. With PyBetVH we estimate and visualize the uncertainties associated with each probability map. Our intent is that probability maps and uncertainties will be useful to local authorities who need to understand the hazard when considering the development of long-term urban and land-use planning and short-term crisis management strategies, and to the scientific community in their efforts to sustain monitoring of this active volcano.

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Montesinos, Beatriz Martínez, Manuel Titos Luzón, Laura Sandri, Oleksandr Rudyy, Alexey Cheptsov, Giovanni Macedonio, Arnau Folch, Sara Barsotti, Jacopo Selva, and Antonio Costa. "On the feasibility and usefulness of high-performance computing in probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment: An application to tephra hazard from Campi Flegrei." Frontiers in Earth Science 10 (September 23, 2022). http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.941789.

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For active volcanoes, knowledge about probabilities of eruption and impacted areas becomes valuable information for decision-makers to develop short- and long-term emergency plans, for which probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA) is needed. High-resolution or spatially extended PVHA requires extreme-scale high-performance computing systems. Within the framework of ChEESE (Center of Excellence for Exascale in Solid Earth; www.cheese-coe.eu), an effort was made to generate exascale-suitable codes and workflows to collect and process in some hours the large amount of data that a quality PVHA requires. To this end, we created an optimized HPC-based workflow coined PVHA_HPC-WF to develop PVHA for a volcano. This tool uses the Bayesian event tree methodology to calculate eruption probabilities, vent-opening location(s), and eruptive source parameters (ESPs) based on volcano history, monitoring system data, and meteorological conditions. Then, the tool interacts with the chosen hazard model, performing a simulation for each ESP set or volcanic scenario (VS). Finally, the resulting information is processed by proof-of-concept-subjected high-performance data analytics (HPDA) scripts, producing the hazard maps which describe the probability over time of exceeding critical thresholds at each location in the investigated geographical domain. Although PVHA_HPC-WF can be adapted to other hazards, we focus here on tephra (i.e., lapilli and ash) transport and deposition. As an application, we performed PVHA for Campi Flegrei (CF), Italy, an active volcano located in one of the most densely inhabited areas in Europe and under busy air traffic routes. CF is currently in unrest, classified as being in an attention level by the Italian Civil Protection. We consider an approximate 2,000 × 2,000 × 40 km computational domain with 2 km grid resolution in the horizontal and 40 vertical levels, centered in CF. To explore the natural variability and uncertainty of the eruptive conditions, we consider a large number of VSs allowing us to include those of low probability but high impact, and simulations of tephra dispersal are performed for each of them using the FALL3D model. Results show the potential of HPC to timely execute a vast range of simulations of complex numerical models in large high-resolution computational domains and analyze great volumes of data to obtain quality hazard maps.

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Journal articles on the topic 'Vent Opening Probability map'

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