Academic literature on the topic 'VAR-BEKK-GARCH'
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Journal articles on the topic "VAR-BEKK-GARCH"
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Arfaoui, Mongi, and Aymen Ben Rejeb. "Return Dynamics and Volatility Spillovers Between FOREX and Stock Markets in MENA Countries: What to Remember for Portfolio Choice?" International Journal of Management and Economics 46, no. 1 (June 1, 2015): 72–100. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/ijme-2015-0022.
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Abstract This article investigates the interdependence of stock-forex markets in MENA (Middle East and North Africa) countries for the February 26, 1999 to June 30, 2014 period. The analysis has been performed through three competing models: the VAR-CCC-GARCH model of Bollerslev [1990]; the VAR-BEKK-GARCH model of Engle and Kroner [1995]; and the VAR-DCC-GARCH model of Engle [2002]. Our findings confirm that both markets are interdependent and corroborate the stock and flow oriented approaches. We also find that, comparing to optimal weights, hedge ratios are typically low, denoting that hedging efficiency is quite good. Our estimation of hedging efficiency suggests that incorporating foreign exchange in a full stock, unhedged portfolio increases the risk-adjusted return while reducing its variance. (We note here that the forex market is overweighted for both portfolio allocations and hedging strategies.) Moreover, this conclusion holds for all countries in all three models.
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Chen, Hao, Zhixin Liu, Yinpeng Zhang, and You Wu. "The Linkages of Carbon Spot-Futures: Evidence from EU-ETS in the Third Phase." Sustainability 12, no. 6 (March 23, 2020): 2517. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12062517.
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Based on the prices selected from European Energy Exchange (EEX) from 2013 to 2018, we investigate the inter-correlation of carbon spot and futures markets. Specifically, we adopt the widely used DCC-GARCH model and VAR-BEKK-GARCH model to conduct a comprehensive analysis on the carbon market, i.e., the dynamic correlation and volatility spillover between carbon spot and carbon futures. Moreover, we develop a hedge strategy based on the VAR-BEKK-GARCH model and calculate the hedging effectiveness (HE) value to evaluate the strategy performance. The empirical results show that (i) during our sample period, carbon spot and futures markets are highly correlated, (ii) carbon spot overflows to the futures market and vice versa, and (iii) the HE value is equal to 0.9370, indicating a good performance for the hedging strategy. Then, we provide further discussion on the relationship between carbon spot and futures markets by replacing our dataset with the data of phase II. The results do not change our conclusions on the dynamic correlation and volatility spillover. However, the HE value of phase III is higher than that of phase II, which indicates that the carbon futures market of phase III is not only an available market to hedge risk from the contemporaneous carbon spot market but also has a better hedge effectiveness than phase II.
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Su, Ruixin, Jianguo Du, Fakhar Shahzad, and Xingle Long. "Unveiling the Effect of Mean and Volatility Spillover between the United States Economic Policy Uncertainty and WTI Crude Oil Price." Sustainability 12, no. 16 (August 18, 2020): 6662. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12166662.
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Grounded in the Granger causality test, vector autoregression (VAR) model, and BEKK-GARCH model, our current study aims to examine the effect of mean and volatility spillover between the United States (US) economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price. Using the US EPU monthly index and WTI spot price data from 1996 to 2019, we revealed that there is a one-way Granger causality link between the US EPU and spot price of WTI crude oil. The VAR model not only illustrated that there is a mean spillover effect between WTI oil price and US EPU, but they will also be affected by its memory, as well as the other’s past. At the same time, it also pointed out that this correlation has positive and negative directions. The BEKK-GARCH model test yielded similar conclusions to the VAR model and, importantly, proved a two-way volatility spillover effect between the US EPU and WTI spot price fluctuations. In conclusion, US economic policy has a substantial influence on the variation of global crude oil prices, as an essential strategic reserve resource and will also influence the government’s economic policy formulation. Understanding the association between WTI crude oil price and policy uncertainty not only helps investors to manage assets allocations and mitigate losses but also guides US policymakers to adjust the energy structure for economic sustainability.
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Gyamerah, Samuel Asante, Bright Emmanuel Owusu, and and Ellis Kofi Akwaa-Sekyi. "Modelling the mean and volatility spillover between green bond market and renewable energy stock market." Green Finance 4, no. 3 (2022): 310–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.3934/gf.2022015.
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<abstract><p>In this paper,we investigate the mean and volatility spillover between the price of green bonds and the price of renewable energy stocks using daily price series from 02/11/2011 to 31/08/2021. The unrestricted trivariate VAR-BEKK-GARCH model is employed to examine potential causality,mean,and volatility spillover effects from the green bond market to the renewable energy stock market and vice-versa. The results from the VAR-BEKK-GARCH model indicate that there exists a uni-directional Granger causality from renewable energy stock prices to green bond prices. While the price of green bonds is positively influenced by its own lagged values and the lagged values of renewable energy stock prices,only the past price value of renewable energy stocks has a positive effect on the current price value. We identified a uni-directional volatility spillover from renewable energy stock prices to green bond prices. However,there was no shock spillover from both sides of the market. This research shows that investors in the green bond market should always consider information from the renewable energy stock market because of the causal link between renewable energy stocks and green bonds.</p></abstract>
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VARDAR, Gülin, Caner TAÇOĞLU, and Berna AYDOĞAN. "Quantifying Return and Volatility Spillovers among Major Cryptocurrencies: A VAR-BEKK-GARCH Analysis." Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi 17, no. 3 (December 1, 2022): 911–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.1145664.
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This study investigates mean and volatility spillover effects among eight major cryptocurrencies; Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple, Stellar, Bitcoin Cash, Cardano and EOS utilizing VAR-BEKK-GARCH model. The results point out that there are bidirectional and unidirectional spillover effects among these major cryptocurrencies. Moreover, the findings indicate that some cryptocurrencies are the transmitter, while others act as a receiver and among all, Litecoin is the highest transmitter, and Stellar is the only one that acts as a receiver. The interdependence among cryptocurrencies supports that they are becoming more integrated and thereby, provides important investment strategies for investors and policy implications for regulators.
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Su, Jung-Bin, and Jui-Cheng Hung. "The Value-At-Risk Estimate of Stock and Currency-Stock Portfolios’ Returns." Risks 6, no. 4 (November 16, 2018): 133. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/risks6040133.
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This study utilizes the seven bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models to forecast the out-of-sample value-at-risk (VaR) of 21 stock portfolios and seven currency-stock portfolios with three weight combinations, and then employs three accuracy tests and one efficiency test to evaluate the VaR forecast performance for the above models. The seven models are constructed by four types of bivariate variance-covariance specifications and two approaches of parameters estimates. The four types of bivariate variance-covariance specifications are the constant conditional correlation (CCC), asymmetric and symmetric dynamic conditional correlation (ADCC and DCC), and the BEKK, whereas the two types of approach include the standard and non-standard approaches. Empirical results show that, regarding the accuracy tests, the VaR forecast performance of stock portfolios varies with the variance-covariance specifications and the approaches of parameters estimate, whereas it does not vary with the weight combinations of portfolios. Conversely, the VaR forecast performance of currency-stock portfolios is almost the same for all models and still does not vary with the weight combinations of portfolios. Regarding the efficiency test via market risk capital, the NS-BEKK model is the most suitable model to be used in the stock and currency-stock portfolios for bank risk managers irrespective of the weight combination of portfolios.
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Jin, Xue, Shiwei Zhou, Kedong Yin, and Mingzhen Li. "Relationships between Copper Futures Markets from the Perspective of Jump Diffusion." Mathematics 9, no. 18 (September 15, 2021): 2268. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math9182268.
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This paper analyzes the price correlation effect between domestic and foreign copper futures contracts. The VAR-BEKK-GARCH (1,1) spillover effect model and the BN-S class non-parametric model based on the jumping perspective are used. The co-integration test shows a long-term equilibrium relationship between the three copper futures markets, and the Granger causality test shows that copper futures contracts have significant two-way spillover effects between different periods in Shanghai for New York copper and unidirectional mean spillover effects for London copper. The BEKK model shows significant bidirectional fluctuation spillover effects between the futures contracts of the Shanghai, London, and New York copper markets before the stock market crash. After the crash, Shanghai and New York copper have significant one-way fluctuation spillover effects on London copper futures contracts. There are jumps within a single market, and the number of joint jumps between markets increases with the significance level.
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Zou, Shaohui, and Tian Zhang. "Correlation and Dynamic Volatility Spillover between Green Investing Market, Coal Market, and CO2 Emissions: Evidence from Shenzhen Carbon Market in China." Advances in Civil Engineering 2022 (January 10, 2022): 1–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/7523563.
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With the continuous expansion scale of carbon market and the development of carbon trading mechanism, carbon emission right, as a new financial asset, is being brought into the category of asset allocation by more and more investors. As the burning of coal is the major source of carbon dioxide, China is facing serious ecological and environmental problems, which restrict the development of low-carbon economy. In order to reach the carbon dioxide emission reduction targets and promote the development of green investment market, the carbon market should be a good emission reduction measure. The correlation and dynamic volatility spillover among coal, carbon, and green investing markets are becoming a hot topic for current research. The paper applies both VAR-GARCH-DCC and VAR-GARCH-BEKK models to draw some significant conclusions. (1) The green investment market, coal market, and Shenzhen carbon market show obvious time-varying correlation, and the volatility of the green investment market is higher. (2) There is a bidirectional Granger causality between green investing and coal markets. (3) The investment portfolio and hedging mechanism of the market are established to reduce the risk and help investors obtain higher returns.
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Pan, Wenjun, Huida Zhao, and Lin Miu. "An Empirical Study on Supply Chain Risk Contagion Effect Based on VAR-GARCH (1,1)–BEKK Model." Wireless Personal Communications 109, no. 2 (May 24, 2019): 761–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11277-019-06589-3.
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Al-Nassar, Nassar S., and Beljid Makram. "The COVID-19 Outbreak and Risk–Return Spillovers between Main and SME Stock Markets in the MENA Region." International Journal of Financial Studies 10, no. 1 (January 4, 2022): 6. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijfs10010006.
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This study investigates return and asymmetric volatility spillovers and dynamic correlations between the main and small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) stock markets in Saudi Arabia and Egypt for the periods before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Return and volatility spillovers are modelled using a VAR-asymmetric BEKK–GARCH (1,1) model, while a VAR-asymmetric DCC–GARCH (1,1) model is employed to model the dynamic conditional correlations between these markets, which are then used to determine and explore portfolio design and hedging implications. The results show that while bidirectional return spillovers between the main and SME stock markets are limited to Saudi Arabia, shock and volatility spillovers have different characteristics and dynamics in both main–SME market pairs. In addition, the dynamic correlations between the main and SME markets are mostly positive and have notably increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in Saudi Arabia, suggesting that adding SME stocks to a main stock portfolio enhances its risk-adjusted return, especially during tranquil market phases. One practical implication of our results is that the development of SME stock markets can indirectly contribute to economic development via the main market channel and provide an avenue for portfolio diversification and risk management.
Dissertations / Theses on the topic "VAR-BEKK-GARCH"
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Jaiswal, Umesh Kumar, and Victoria Voronina. "Relationship between Gold and Stock Returns: Empirical evidence from BRICs." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Handelshögskolan vid Umeå universitet (USBE), 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-53355.
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The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between gold and stock returns with evidence from BRIC countries during 2001-2010. The importance of this topic is caused by instability in the world economy and stock markets, and due to this instability, there is a growing interest in gold from investors and the current bull market of gold. Considering that gold is independent from most of the macroeconomic factors we believe that it therefore should be independent from or low correlated with stock, which makes this metal useful for portfolio diversification. Based on previous studies, we also believe that gold can be used to predict, to some degree, the stock market trend. The force behind such stable price growth of gold is sustained by demand from emerging countries such as BRICs. Moreover, there is lack of research on this topic from the perspective of different economic sectors. These facts determined the choice of countries along with their economic sectors. The research was designed in the frame of quantitative method. The types of relationship that were investigated are correlation and spillover effects. In order to examine these relationships we have utilized secondary data, which are gold prices and stock indices turned into returns. The Pearson’s correlation and diagonal BEKK GARCH were applied to test the correlation and spillover effects between returns of gold and stock, respectively. The results of the study showed that gold and stock returns are correlated, however to a low degree. Additionally, correlation varies across countries and their economic sectors over time, which may influence investors’ decision in choice of allocation of investments. The other findings showed the existence of mean spillover effects, both unidirectional and bidirectional, and volatility spillover effects between gold and stock returns. The principal conclusions were that gold is an efficient portfolio diversifier, which also plays a role of a hedge and a safe haven. Similarly, taking into account an existence of spillover effects, gold can be helpful in terms of stock prediction and vice versa. Further, another important finding was that not all of the economic sectors had mean spillover with gold, but in terms of volatility, every sector had a certain relationship with gold.
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Charleroy, Rémy. "External shocks and monetary policy in emerging countries." Thesis, Paris 1, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015PA010031.
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Chocs externes et politique monétaire dans les pays émergentsWe investigate the conditional correlation between exchange rate and inflation by using a multivariate BEKK GARCH model. This framework is tested on 20 emerging countries independently of each other and it allows one to consider the macroeconomic variables as having a nonlinear relationship over time. We show that the less credible a country is in applying an IT framework because of its monetary objectives or its interventions in the foreign exchange rate markets, the higher the interactions between both variables are. We also show that the adoption of an inflation target allows the decoupling of variables when the inflation volatility increases, and that the estimated central bank’s reaction function explains the diminution in conditional correlation when the exchange rate or both variables volatility augments. By analyzing the evolution of exchange rate pass-through we investigate the degree of vulnerability of macroeconomic variables in BRICS since the mid-1990s when they experience an external shock. Wefocus our study on the two main theories that explain the reduction of macroeconomic variables volatility: the ”good policy” theory with the adoption by central banks of an inflation targeting framework coupled with a flexible exchange rate regime and the ”good luck” theory with the reduction of external shock persistence. The distinction between the theories is made by testing several time-varying parameters vector autoregressive models with different priors on VAR parameters for the structural changes and on the variance-covariance matrix for the stochastic volatility. Among other results, we conclude that the ”good luck” theory seems to be the dominant factor that explain the reduction in the vulnerabilities of BRICS to an external shock and that the 2008 financial crisis does not lead to a significant increase in the ERPT compared to previous crisis. The recent financial crisis has heightened the interest in the impact of financial sector developments on the macroeconomic condition of countries. By employing a rolling-window Vector Auto-Regressive method based on monthly data for a time span between January 2001 and March 2013, this article sets up a comprehensive financial conditions index for a set of major emerging countries. The index sheds light on the various triggers of financial crises during this period and captures both domestic developments as well as global spillover effects. Index dynamics exhibit an overall abrupt slowdown due to the 2007-2008 financial crisis, precipitated primarily through a global liquidity squeeze and overall financial sector strain. In some countries, rising volatility of financial conditions thereafter has substantially been sparked by nominal effective exchange rate movements. Tested on its forecasting applicability, the inclusion of macroeconomic and financial variables enables the index to also perform well as a leading indicator for business cycles
Conference papers on the topic "VAR-BEKK-GARCH"
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Longjie, Xiao. "A study on information transfer of international crude oil futures price base on VAR-GARCH-BEKK model." In 2015 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services (GSIS). IEEE, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/gsis.2015.7301820.
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