Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Urban hydrology Mathematical models'
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1
Fahy, Benjamin. "Evaluating the Impact and Distribution of Stormwater Green Infrastructure on Watershed Outflow." PDXScholar, 2019. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/4732.
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Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) has become a popular method for flood mitigation as it can prevent runoff from entering streams during heavy precipitation. In this study, a recently developed neighborhood in Gresham, Oregon hosts a comparison of various GSI projects on runoff dynamics. The study site includes dispersed GSI (rain gardens, retention chambers, green streets) and centralized GSI (bioswales, detention ponds, detention pipes). For the 2017-2018 water year, hourly rainfall and observed discharge data is used to calibrate the EPA's Stormwater Management Model to simulate rainfall-runoff dynamics, achieving a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.75 and Probability Bias statistic of 3.3%. A synthetic scenario analysis quantifies the impact of the study site GSI and compares dispersed and centralized arrangements. Each test was performed under four precipitation scenarios (of differing intensity and duration) for four metrics: runoff ratio, peak discharge, lag time, and flashiness. Design structure has significant impacts, reducing runoff ratio 10 to 20%, reducing peak discharge 26 to 68%, and reducing flashiness index 56 to 70%. There was a reverse impact on lag time, increasing it to 50 to 80%. Distributed GSI outperform centralized structures for all metrics, reducing runoff ratio 22 to 32%, reducing peak discharge 67 to 69%, increasing lag time 133 to 500%, and reducing flashiness index between 32 and 62%. This research serves as a basis for researchers and stormwater managers to understand potential impact of GSI on reducing runoff and downstream flooding in small urban watersheds with frequent rain.
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Psaris, Alexander Michael. "Assessing Hydrologic and Water Quality Sensitivities to Precipitation Changes, Urban Growth and Land Management Using SWAT." PDXScholar, 2014. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/1783.
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Precipitation changes and urban growth are two factors altering the state of water quality. Changes in precipitation will alter the amount and timing of flows, and the corresponding sediment and nutrient dynamics. Meanwhile, densification associated with urban growth will create more impervious surfaces which will alter sediment and nutrient loadings. Land and water managers often rely on models to develop possible future scenarios and devise management responses to these projected changes. We use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess the sensitivities of stream flow, sediment, and nutrient loads in two urbanizing watersheds in Northwest Oregon, USA to various climate and urbanization scenarios. We evaluate the spatial patterns climate change and urban growth will have on water, sediment and nutrient yields. We also identify critical source areas (CSAs) and investigate how implementation of vegetative filter strips (VFS) could ameliorate the effects of these changes. Our findings suggest that: 1) Water yield is tightly coupled to precipitation. 2) Large increases in winter and spring precipitation provide enough sub-surface storage to increase summertime water yields despite a moderate decrease in summer precipitation. 3) Expansion of urban areas increases surface runoff and has mixed effects on sediment and nutrients. 4) Implementation of VFS reduces pollutant loads helping overall watershed health. This research demonstrates the usefulness of SWAT in facilitating informed land and water management decisions.
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Washburne, James Clarke. "A distributed surface temperature and energy balance model of a semi-arid watershed." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1994. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/186800.
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A simple model of surface and sub-surface soil temperature was developed at the watershed scale (-100 km²) in a semi-arid rangeland environment. The model consisted of a linear combination of air temperature and net radiation and assumed: (1) topography controls the spatial distribution of net radiation, (2) near-surface air temperature and incoming solar radiation are relatively homogeneous at the watershed scale and are available from ground stations and (3) soil moisture dominates transient soil thermal property variability. Multiplicative constants were defined to account for clear sky diffuse radiation, soil thermal inertia, an initially fixed ratio between soil heat flux and net radiation and exponential attenuation of solar radiation through a partial canopy. The surface temperature can optionally be adjusted for temperature and emissivity differences between mixed bare soil and vegetation canopies. Model development stressed physical simplicity and commonly available spatial and temporal data sets. Slowly varying surface characteristics, such as albedo, vegetation density and topography were derived from a series of Landsat TM images and a 7.5" USGS digital elevation model at a spatial resolution of 30 m. Diurnally variable atmospheric parameters were derived from a pair of ground meteorological stations using 30-60 min averages. One site was used to drive the model, the other served as a control to estimate model error. Data collected as part of the Monsoon '90 and WG '92 field experiments over the ARS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in SE Arizona were used to validate and test the model. Point, transect and spatially distributed values of modeled surface temperature were compared with synchronous ground, aircraft and satellite thermal measurements. There was little difference between ground and aircraft measurements of surface reflectance and temperature which makes aircraft transects the preferred method to "ground truth" satellite observations. Mid-morning modeled surface temperatures were within 2° C of observed values at all but satellite scales, where atmospheric water vapor corrections complicate the determination of accurate temperatures. The utility of satellite thermal measurements and models to study various ground phenomena (e.g. soil thermal inertia and surface energy balance) were investigated. Soil moisture anomalies were detectable, but were more likely associated with average near-surface soil moisture levels than individual storm footprints.
4
Mahanama, Sarith Prasad Panditha. "Distributed approach of coupling basin scale hydrology with atmospheric processes." Thesis, Hong Kong : University of Hong Kong, 2000. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B22088817.
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Goodrich, David Charles. "Basin Scale and Runoff Model Complexity." Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ), 1990. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/614028.
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Distributed Rainfall-Runoff models are gaining widespread acceptance; yet, a
fundamental issue that must be addressed by all users of these models is definition
of an acceptable level of watershed discretization (geometric model complexity). The
level of geometric model complexity is a function of basin and climatic scales as well
as the availability of input and verification data. Equilibrium discharge storage is
employed to develop a quantitative methodology to define a level of geometric model
complexity commensurate with a specified level of model performance. Equilibrium
storage ratios are used to define the transition from overland to channel -dominated
flow response. The methodology is tested on four subcatchments in the USDA -ARS
Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in Southeastern Arizona. The catchments
cover a range of basins scales of over three orders of magnitude. This enabled a
unique assessment of watershed response behavior as a function of basin scale.
High quality, distributed, rainfall -runoff data was used to verify the model (KINEROSR). Excellent calibration and verification results provided confidence in
subsequent model interpretations regarding watershed response behavior. An
average elementary channel support area of roughly 15% of the total basin area is
shown to provide a watershed discretization level that maintains model performance
for basins ranging in size from 1.5 to 631 hectares. Detailed examination of
infiltration, including the role and impacts of incorporating small scale infiltration
variability in a distribution sense, into KINEROSR, over a range of soils and
climatic scales was also addressed. The impacts of infiltration and channel losses
on runoff response increase with increasing watershed scale as the relative influence
of storms is diminished in a semiarid environment such as Walnut Gulch. In this
semiarid environment, characterized by ephemeral streams, watershed runoff
response does not become more linear with increasing watershed scale but appears
to become more nonlinear.
6
Bailey, Mark A(Mark Alexander) 1970. "Improved techniques for the treatment of uncertainty in physically-based models of catchment water balance." Monash University, Dept. of Civil Engineering, 2001. http://arrow.monash.edu.au/hdl/1959.1/8271.
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Oliver, Marcel 1963. "Mathematical investigation of models of shallow water with a varying bottom." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1996. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/191198.
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This dissertation is a mathematical investigation of the so-called lake and the great lake equations, which are shallow water equations that describe the long-time motion of an inviscid, incompressible fluid contained in a shallow basin with a slowly spatially varying bottom, a free upper surface and vertical side walls, under the influence of gravity and in the limit of small characteristic velocities and very small surface amplitude. It is shown that these equations are globally well-posed, i.e. that they possess unique global weak solutions that depend continuously on the initial data and on the bottom topography. Provided the initial data is in a class of sufficiently differentiable functions, it remains a member of that class for all times. In other words, the lake and great lake equations have global classical solutions. Moreover, if the equations are posed on a space-periodic domain and the initial data is real analytic, the solution remains real analytic for all times. The proof is based on a characterization of Gevrey classes in terms of decay of Fourier coefficients. Finally, a partial mathematical justification of the formal derivation of the lake equations is given. It is shown that solutions of the lake equation stay close to solutions of the rigid lid equations—the three dimensional Euler equations in the limit of small surface wave amplitude—in the following sense: For every error bound 6 there exists a time T = T(ε) such that for all times t ∈ [0, T] the difference between a solution to the lake equations and the solution to the rigid lid equation corresponding to the same initial data is less than E in a suitably chosen norm. Moreover, T tends to infinity as the aspect ratio of the basin tends to zero.
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Javaheri, Hamed. "Automatic calibration of urban run-off models using global optimization techniques." Thesis, McGill University, 1998. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=21305.
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Conceptual urban runoff (CUR) models are commonly used in the Planning and design of urban drainage systems. These models often require a large number of variables and parameters in order to accurately describe, the complex relationships between rainfall, runoff and watershed characteristics. This requirement has often become a barrier to the use of such models, because of the difficulties involved in the estimation of these parameters. Hence, there is a great need to develop a robust and reliable automatic calibration procedure to assist in the identification of the best set of optimal parameters for a CUR model. The present study is therefore concerned with the automatic calibration of a typical and well-known CUR model, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Storm Water Management Model, or SWMM.In this study, two automatic calibration methods were considered based an two different optimization algorithms: the Downhill Simplex (DHS), a popular local optimization technique, and the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE), a global optimization procedure. The consistency of SCE in estimating the SWMM model parameters was assessed under two different scenarios: (1) using "error-free" synthetic data, and (2) using observed data available an the Upper Bukit Timah catchment in Singapore. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)
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夏激揚 and Jiyang Xia. "Numerical study on wind field and air pollutant dispersion in urban street canopies." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2000. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31242509.
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Wong, Ching-chi, and 黃精治. "Flow and pollutant dispersion over idealized urban street canyons using large-eddy simulation." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10722/206698.
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Flows and pollutant dispersion over flat rural terrain have been investigated for decades. However, our understanding of their behaviours over urban areas is rather limited. Most cases have either focused on street level or in the roughness sub-layer (RSL) of urban boundary layer (UBL). Whereas, only a handful of studies have looked into the coupling between street-level and UBL-core dynamics, and their effects on pollutant dispersion.
In this thesis, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is employed to examine the flows and pollutant transport in and over urban roughness. Idealised two-dimensional (2D) street canyons are used as the basic units fabricating hypothetical urban surfaces. A ground-level passive and chemically inert pollutant source is applied to simulate the flows and pollutant dispersion over rough surfaces in isothermal condition. Large-eddy simulation (LES) with the one-equation subgrid-scale model is used to solve explicitly the broad range of scales in turbulent flows. Arrays of idealized street canyons of both uniform and non-uniform building height are used to formulate a unified theory for the flows and pollutant dispersion over urban areas of different morphology. The geometry of roughness elements is controlled by the building-height-to-street-width (aspect) ratio (0.083 ≤ AR ≤ 2) and/or the building height variability (BHV = 0.2, 0.4 and 0.6), in which the characteristic regimes of skimming flow, wake-interference and isolated roughness are covered.
A detailed analysis on the roof-level turbulence structure reveals parcels of low-speed air masses in the streamwise flows and narrow high-speed down-drafts in the urban canopy layer, signifying the momentum entrainment into the street canyons. The decelerating streamwise flows in turn initiate up-drafts carrying pollutants away from the street canyons, illustrating the basic pollutant removal mechanism in 2D street canyons. Turbulent transport processes, in the form of ejection and sweep, are the key events governing the exchanges of air and pollutant of street canyon. Air exchange rate (ACH) along the roof level is dominated by turbulent transport, in particular over narrow street canyons.
The LES results show that both the turbulence level and ACH increase with increasing aerodynamic resistance defined in term of the Fanning friction factor. At the same AR, BHV greatly increases the friction factor and the ACH in dense built areas (AR ≤ 0.25). The turbulence intensity is peaked on the windward side of street canyons that does not overlap with the maximum velocity gradient near the leeward building corners, suggesting the importance of background turbulence in street-level ventilation. Over the building roughness, pollutant plume dispersion after the ground-level area source in cross flows resumes the self-similar Gaussian shape in the vertical direction in which the vertical plume coverage is proportional to the square root of downwind distance in the streamwise direction. Moreover, the vertical dispersion coefficient is proportional to the one-fourth power of friction factor over idealised street canyons. Conclusively, friction factor can be used to parametrise ventilation and pollutant dispersion over urban areas.published_or_final_version
Mechanical Engineering
Doctoral
Doctor of Philosophy
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Ropp, David L. "Numerical study of shallow water models with variable topography." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2000. http://etd.library.arizona.edu/etd/GetFileServlet?file=file:///data1/pdf/etd/azu_e9791_2000_165_sip1_w.pdf&type=application/pdf.
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El, Didy Sherif Mohamed Ahmed 1951. "Two-dimensional finite element programs for water flow and water quality in multi-aquifer systems." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1986. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/191110.
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Multiple aquifer systems similar to those that exist at coal gasification sites are complicated groundwater situations. In these types of systems, the aquifers are separated by aquitards through which interaction between aquifers can occur. The movement of the products of combustion into the coal seam and adjacent aquifers is a serious problem of interest. This dissertation presents two-dimensional finite element models for water flow and water quality in multiple aquifer systems. These models can be applied for general problems as well as the problems associated with the burned cavities in coal gasification sites. The Galerkin weightedresidual method is used in both models. Eight-noded isoparametric elements are used. Spatial numerical integration is performed using Gaussian quadrature. A weighted finite difference scheme is used, in both of them, for time integration. The two models are written in FORTRAN V for the CDC CYBER 175. They are applicable to one- or two-dimensional problems involving steady-state or transient flow. Each aquifer can have different initial conditions and boundary conditions. Boundary conditions, pumping rates, and the recharge can be specified as a function of time. The output of the flow program-nodal heads and velocity components is used as an input to the quality program. The numerical models were validated for simple problems that have available analytical solutions.
13
Shi, Wen, and 石雯. "Dynamic simulation and quantitative analysis of urban taxi services." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2010. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B45528767.
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Henry, Eric James. "Contaminant induced flow effects in variably-saturated porous media." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/191256.
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Dissolved organic contaminants that decrease the surface tension of water (surfactants) can have an effect on unsaturated flow through porous media due to the dependence of capillary pressure on surface tension. One and two-dimensional (1D, 2D) laboratory experiments and numerical simulations were conducted to study surfactant-induced unsaturated flow. The 1D experiments investigated differences in surfactant-induced flow as a function of contaminant mobility. The flow in a system contaminated with a high solubility, mobile surfactant, butanol, was much different than in a system contaminated with a sparingly soluble, relatively immobile surfactant, myristyl alcohol (MA). Because surface tension depression caused by MA was confined to the original source zone, the MA system was modeled using a standard unsaturated flow model (HYDRUS-1D) by assigning separate sets of hydraulic functions to the initially clean and source zones. To simulate the butanol system, HYDRUS-1D was modified to incorporate surfactant concentration-dependent changes to the moisture content-pressure head and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity functions. Following the 1D study, a two-dimensional flow cell (2.4 x 1.5 x 0.1 m) was used to investigate the infiltration of a surfactant contaminant plume from a point source on the soil surface, through the vadose zone, and toward a shallow aquifer. Above the top of the capillary fringe the advance of the surfactant solution caused a drainage front that radiated from the point source. Upon reaching the capillary fringe, the drainage front caused a localized depression of the capillary fringe and eventually a new capillary fringe height was established. Horizontal transport of surfactant in the depressed capillary fringe caused the propagation of a wedge-shaped drainage front in the downgradient direction. The numerical model HYDRUS-2D was modified to account for surfactant concentration-dependent effects on the unsaturated hydraulic functions and was successfully used to simulate the surfactant infiltration experiment. The extensive propagation of the drying front and the effect of vadose zone drainage on contaminant breakthrough time demonstrate the potential importance of considering surface tension effects on unsaturated flow and transport in systems containing surface-active organic contaminants or in systems where surfactants are used for remediation of the vadose zone or unconfined aquifers.
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Leung, Ka-kit Pieta, and 梁家杰. "On the study of ventilation and pollutant removal over idealized two-dimensional urban street canyons." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2012. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B48521863.
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In the last century, there has been a rapid growth and development in economy and modern technology around the world. This phenomenon helped improving wealth and living standard but also brought pollutions to the society and the environment. Among various kinds of pollution, air pollution takes a larger proportion. Therefore, there is increasing concern about the ventilation and pollution removal behavior in the urban environment.
Among different academic studies performed, the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) had become more popular. Since wind tunnel experiments serve as validations for CFD results, this thesis developed the technique required for wind tunnels experiments and to investigate the pollutant removal related to urban geometry, as well as the technique for gas sampling to examine the distribution of pollutants in urban boundary layer over idealized two-dimensional (2D) street canyons.
Three specific tasks are archived to accomplish the above objectives. The first task was to extend the wind tunnel in the Department of Mechanical Engineering, the University of Hong Kong. An extension duct was designed to increase the length of the test section in which the reduced-scale model could be installed. The dimensions of the test section were specified according to the required length for fully developed flow inside the test section, the environment in the laboratory and the original wind tunnel conditions. The extension duct was then constructed and mounted, with the wind profile inside the test section obtained afterwards.
After construction of the extended test section for experimental purposes, the second task was to examine the pollutant transport behaviors from the ground level of idealized 2D urban street canyons to the urban atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) using both laboratory wind tunnel measurements and CFD. Movable rectangular aluminum blocks were placed in the wind tunnel in cross-flow to construct street canyons of different building-height-to-street-width (aspect) ratios. Wetted filter papers were applied on the surface of the blocks inside the street region, modeling the source of pollutant emission inside the street canyons. The wind tunnel and CFD results complemented each other to elucidate the pollutant removal mechanism that is in line with other results available in literature. From the experimental results obtained, scaling effect was observed in the mass transfer behaviors even the flows had fulfilled kinematic similarity. A new indicator, the scaled overall pollutant removal coefficient, was formulated for the comparison of pollutant removal performance. The improved agreement in the comparison with the CFD results showed that the scaled overall pollutant removal coefficient could be used to account for the scaling effects occurred in laboratory experiments at finite Reynolds number (〖10〗^(3 ) to 〖10〗^(5 ) in this study) for comparison of pollutant removal performance.
The behavior of pollutants inside the street canyons was studied; however, the pollutant concentration inside a street could be affected by the pollutant source in another street, even there were several streets away from it. The pollutant escaped from the source street could act as air entrainment into other streets, affecting the air quality. The concentration profile correlated to the street geometry was thus studied. The last task of this dissertation was to study the effect of urban geometry on the concentration profile of the urban ABL by means of gas dispersion experiments. Experiments were carried out in the wind tunnels of the Department of Mechanical Engineering and Department of Civil Engineering with different sets of experimental models used. A special gas emission source was constructed in order to simulate the linear source due to busy traffic in the street regions. The required gas sampling techniques were also studied throughout the measurement. Trial experiments were carried out and preliminary results had been obtained. Furthermore, the pollutant concentration profiles downstream from a linear pollutant source in an idealized 2D street canyon were also measured. Throughout the experiments, different designs of line source were tested and factors affecting the experimental results were considered. One of the line source designs was adopted and the pollutant concentrations in street canyons of different aspect ratios were observed. The concentration decreases rapidly with increasing distance from the roof but then increases to steady value. The average pollutant concentration over the concentration profile was different at different aspect ratios. It is believed that its performance depends on the pollutant removal behavior from street regions.published_or_final_version
Mechanical Engineering
Master
Master of Philosophy
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Namde, Noubassem Nanas 1955. "Simulation of micro catchment water harvesting systems." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1987. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/191121.
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A mathematical model for personal computers was prepared as a planning tool for development of micro catchment water harvesting systems. It computes runoff from natural or treated catchments, using estimated or actual parameters. The model also computes the water balance of the soil zone in the cultivated area and the water balance of the reservoir system which serves it. The model was calibrated with hydrolologic data and site characteristics for a location near Tucson, Arizona. Its prediction of cotton and grain sorghum yields was comparable to that of Morin (1977). An attempt was made to use weekly or monthly rainfall data for areas where daily data are unavailable. Lack of direct rainfall and runoff durations and infiltration characteristics made this attempt unsuccessful. This option cannot be used with the model in its current form.
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Tang, Philip Kwok Fan. "Stochastic Hydrologic Modeling in Real Time Using a Deterministic Model (Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation Model), Time Series Model, and Kalman Filter." PDXScholar, 1991. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/4580.
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The basic concepts of hydrologic forecasting using the Streamflow Synthesis And Reservoir Regulation Model of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, auto-regressive-moving-average time series models (including Greens' functions, inverse functions, auto covariance Functions, and model estimation algorithm), and the Kalman filter (including state space modeling, system uncertainty, and filter algorithm), were explored. A computational experiment was conducted in which the Kalman filter was applied to update Mehama local basin model (Mehama is a 227 sq. miles watershed located on the North Santiam River near Salem, Oregon.), a typical SSARR basin model, to streamflow measurements as they became available in simulated real time. Among the candidate AR and ARMA models, an ARMA(l,l) time series model was selected as the best-fit model to represent the residual of the basin model. It was used to augment the streamflow forecasts created by the local basin model in simulated real time. Despite the limitations imposed by the quality of the moisture input forecast and the design and calibration of the basin model, the experiment shows that the new stochastic methods are effective in significantly improving the flood forecast accuracy of the SSARR model.
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Lee, Haksu. "Development and performance analysis of a physically based hydrological model incorporating the effects of subgrid heterogeneity." University of Western Australia. School of Environmental Systems Engineering, 2007. http://theses.library.uwa.edu.au/adt-WU2007.0129.
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[Truncated abstract] The balance equations of mass and momentum, defined at the scale of what has been defined as a Representative Elementary Watershed (REW) has been proposed by Reggiani et al. (1998, 1999). While it has been acknowledged that the REW approach and the associated balance equations can be the basis for the development of a new generation of distributed physically based hydrological models, four building blocks have been identified as necessary to transform the REW approach into, at the very least least, a workable modelling framework beyond the theoretical achievements. These are: 1) the development of reasonable closure relations for the mass exchange fluxes within and between various REW sub-regions that effectively parameterize the effects of sub-REW heterogeneity of climatic and landscape properties, 2) the design of numerical algorithms capable of generating numerical solutions of the REW-scale balance equations composed of a set of coupled ordinary differential and algebraic equations for the number of REWs constituting a study catchment and the sub-regions within the REWs, 3) applications of the resulting numerical model to real catchments to assess its performance in the prediction of any specified hydrological variables, and 4) the assessment of the model reliability through estimation of model predictive uncertainty and parameter uncertainty. This thesis is aimed at making substantial progress in developing each of these building blocks. Chapter 1 presents the background and motivation for the thesis, while Chapter 2 summarizes its main contributions. Chapter 3 presents a description of the closure problem that the REW approach faces, and presents and implements various approaches to develop closure relations needed for the completeness of balance equations of the REW approach. ... In addition, Chapter 4 also shows an initial application of CREW to a small catchment, Susannah Brook in the south-west of Western Australia. Chapter 5 presents the application of CREW to two meso-scale catchments in Australia, namely Collie and Howard Springs, located in contrasting climates. Chapter 6 presents results of the estimation of predictive uncertainty and parameter sensitivity through the application of CREW to two catchments in Australia, namely Susannah Brook and Howard Springs, by using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. Finally, Chapter 7 presents recommendations for future work for the further advancement of the REW approach. Through these exercises this PhD thesis has successfully transformed the REW-scale coupled balance equations derived by Reggiani et al. (1998, 1999) into a new, well tested numerical model blueprint for the development and implementation of distributed, physically based models applicable at the catchment, or REW scale.
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黃家耀 and Ka-io Wong. "A network equilibrium approach for modeling urban taxi services." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2002. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31243769.
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Cheng, Wai-chi, and 鄭偉智. "Wind and pollutant removal of urban street canyons under different thermal stratification by RANS and LES models." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2010. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B46289653.
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Tecle, Aregai 1948. "Choice of multicriterion decision making techniques for watershed management." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1988. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/191145.
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The problem of selecting a multicriterion decision making (MCDM) technique for watershed resources management is investigated. Of explicit concern in this research is the matching of a watersned resources management problem with an appropriate MCDM technique. More than seventy techniques are recognized while reviewing the area of MCDM. A new classification scheme is developed to categorize these techniques into four groups on the bases of each algorithm's structural formulation and the possible results obtained by using the algorithm. Other standard classification schemes are also discussed to better understand the differences and similarities among the techniques and thereby demonstrate the importance of matching a particular multicriterion decision problem with an appropriate MCDM technique. The desire for selecting the most appropriate MCDM technique for watershed resources management lead to the development of 49 technique choice criteria and an algorithm for selecting a technique. The algorithm divides the technique choice criteria into four groups: (1) DM/analyst-related criteria, (2) technique-related criteria, (3) problem-related criteria and (4) solution-related criteria. To analyze the applicability of MCDM techniques to a particular problem, the levels of performance of the techniques in solving the problem are, at first, evaluated with respect to the choice criteria in each criterion group resulting in four sets of preference rankings. These four sets are then linearly combined using a set of trade-off parameters to determine the overall preference ranking of the techniques. The MUM technique selection process is itself modeled as a multiobjective problem. In this research, for example, a set of 15 techniques, the author is familiar with, are analyzed for their appropriateness to solve a watershed resources management problem. The performance levels of the 15 MCDM techniques in solving such a problem are evaluated with respect to a selected set of technique choice criteria in each criterion group leading to a set of four evaluation matrices of choice criteria versus alternative techniques. This technique choice problem is then analyzed using a two-stage evaluation procedure known as composite programming. The final product of the process resulted in a preference ranking of the alternative MCDM techniques.
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Li, Xianxiang, and 李顯祥. "Large-eddy simulation of wind flow and air pollutant transport inside urban street canyons of different aspect ratios." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2008. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B40687326.
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Luckemeier, Richard Ewald 1948. "A rainfall-runoff model for an urban watershed in Tucson, Arizona." Thesis, The University of Arizona, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/277165.
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The U.S. Geological Survey and the City of Tucson, Arizona, have been collecting rainfall and runoff data on several watersheds in the Tucson area for several years. Among the purposes of this project is to use the data to test rainfall-runoff models in an effort to find one to successfully simulate flood flows in Tucson. One such model, the Distributed Routing Rainfall-Runoff Model (DR3M), was tested using data collected on Rob Wash in Tucson. It was found DR3M performs about as well as it does in other parts of the United States, although it tends to underestimate flood flows for large storms and overestimate flows for smaller storms. Unique features with regard to the hydrology of urban Tucson require special attention when using DR3M; these features are associated with the nature of dry washes and summer rainfall in Tucson. Experience indicates DR3M is not truly a deterministic model.
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Du, Jun 1962. "Short-range ensemble forecasting of an explosive cyclogenesis with a limited area model." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1996. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/191197.
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Since the atmosphere is a chaotic system, small errors in the initial condition of any numerical weather prediction (NWP) model amplify as the forecast evolves. To estimate and possibly reduce the uncertainty of NWP associated with initial-condition uncertainty (ICU), ensemble forecasting has been proposed which is a method of, differently from the traditional deterministic forecasting, running several model forecasts starting from slightly different initial states. In this dissertation, the impact of ICU and short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF) on quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), as well as on sea-level cyclone position and central pressure, is examined for a case of explosive cyclogenesis that occurred over the contiguous United States. A limited-area model (the PSU/NCAR MM4) is run at 80-km horizontal resolution and 15 layers to produce a 25-member, 36-h forecast ensemble. Lateral boundary conditions for the MM4 model are provided by ensemble forecasts from a global spectral model (the NCAR CCM1). The initial perturbations of the ensemble members possess a magnitude and spatial decomposition which closely match estimates of global analysis error, but they were not dynamically-conditioned. Results for 80-km ensemble forecast are compared to forecasts from the then operational Nested Grid Model (NGM), a single 40-km MM4 forecast, and a second 25-member MM4 ensemble based on a different cumulus parameterization and slightly different initial conditions. Acute sensitivity to ICU marks ensemble QPF and the forecasts of cyclone position and central pressure. Ensemble averaging always reduces the rms error for QPF. Nearly 90% of the improvement is obtainable using ensemble sizes as small as 8-10. However, ensemble averaging can adversely affect the forecasts related to precipitation areal coverage because of its smoothing nature. Probabilistic forecasts for five mutually exclusive, completely exhaustive categories are found to be skillful relative to a climatological forecast. Ensemble sizes of --, 10 can account for 90% of improvement in probability density function. Our results indicate that SREF techniques can now provide useful QPF guidance and increase the accuracy of precipitation, cyclone position, and cyclone's central pressure forecasts. With current analysis/forecast systems, the benefit from simple ensemble averaging is comparable to or exceed that obtainable from improvement in the analysis/forecast system.
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Hang, Jian, and 杭建. "Wind conditions and urban ventilation in idealized city models." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2009. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B42841471.
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Torchinsky, Raymon Lev. "Individual choice behaviour and urban commuting." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 1987. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/27552.
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Urban commuting patterns can be viewed as the spatial manifestation of the outcome of labour market processes. Recent theoretical and empirical work investigating urban labour markets has emphasized the role of spatial wage differentials in mediating the interrelationship between labour supply and demand distributions and the dynamics of land-use change. This thesis represents an extension of such research. A simulation approach to commuting modelling, based on the explicit characterization of the interrelationship between urban location and interaction in terms of labour market processes, is developed.
The solution path logic of the simulation model is designed to provide normative commuting outcomes, given the spatial pattern of labour supply and demand, under a wide range of assumptions concerning labour market processes and choice-making behaviour of market participants. An explicit characterization of the labour market, based on the specification of an endogenous behavioural assumption set, defines a model version. Thus, the model may be used to test the ability of various behavioural constructs to explain empirical commuting patterns.
The justification and internal logic underlying the development of a specific model version is presented. This version is based on the assumption that the decision by a worker to apply for a job is objectively rational, given that the market environment does not provide certainty as to the outcome of an application. It is shown that such choice behaviour is analogous to the game-theoretic mixed strategy solution to non-cooperative games under uncertainty. The algorithm of the operational model incorporating this approach is detailed.
The model was tested on empirical commuting patterns derived from Vancouver Census data, and model results were compared with those obtained from a positive entropy-based model. Commuting predictions exhibited a level of accuracy comparable to that achieved by the calibrated entropy model.Arts, Faculty of
Geography, Department of
Graduate
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Thyer, Mark Andrew. "Modelling long-term persistence in hydrological time series." Diss., 2000, 2000. http://www.newcastle.edu.au/services/library/adt/public/adt-NNCU20020531.035349/index.html.
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Lai, Kwong-kei Murphy, and 賴廣麒. "Two-dimensional computational study on indoor/outdoor air quality relationship in urban buildings." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2007. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B38725149.
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Zeng, Ning. "Climatic impact of Amazon deforestation: A study of underlying mechanism through simple modeling." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1994. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/186999.
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An intermediate level model for tropical climatology including atmosphere-land-ocean interaction is developed. The model contains basically linearized steady state primitive equations with simplified thermodynamics. A simple hydrological cycle is also included. Special attention has been paid to land surface processes in attempting to study climate change caused by Amazon deforestation. In comparison with previous simple modeling work on tropical climatology or anomaly, the present model is more sophisticated in the sense that it predicts all the important meteorological variables with little input, while being computationally simple. The modeled tropical climatology appears to be realistic. The model generally better simulates the ENSO anomaly compared to many previous simple model simulations. We provide analysis of model results and discuss model deficiencies and possible improvements of the model. The climatic impact of Amazon deforestation is studied in the context of this model. Model results show a much weakened Atlantic Walker/Hadley circulation as a result of the existence of a strong positive feedback loop in the atmospheric circulation system and the hydrological cycle. The regional climate is very sensitive to albedo change and sensitive to evapotranspiration change. The pure dynamical effect of surface roughness on convergence is small, but the surface flow anomaly displays intriguing features. Analysis of the thermodynamic equation reveals the balance among convective heating, adiabatic cooling and radiation largely determines the deforestation response. The model provides a plausible mechanism for the common results of many GCM simulations. Studies of the consequences of hypothetical continuous deforestation suggest that the replacement of forest by desert may be able to sustain a desert-like climate. When a simple mixed layer ocean model is coupled with the atmospheric model, the results suggest a 1 °C decrease in SST gradient across the equatorial Atlantic ocean in response to Amazon deforestation. The magnitude of the decrease depends on the coupling strength.
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So, Shuk-pan Ellen, and 蘇淑彬. "Large eddy simulations of wind flow and pollution dispersion in an urban street canyon." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2003. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B29332710.
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Ritzi, Robert William. "The use of well response to natural forces in the estimation of hydraulic parameters." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1989. http://etd.library.arizona.edu/etd/GetFileServlet?file=file:///data1/pdf/etd/azu_e9791_1989_119_sip1_w.pdf&type=application/pdf.
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Hyun, Yunjung. "Multiscale anaylses of permeability in porous and fractured media." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2002. http://etd.library.arizona.edu/etd/GetFileServlet?file=file:///data1/pdf/etd/azu_e9791_2002_321_sip1_w.pdf&type=application/pdf.
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Schmid, Wolfgang. "A farm package for MODFLOW-2000 simulation of irrigation demand and conjunctively managed surface-water and ground-water supply /." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2004. http://etd.library.arizona.edu/etd/GetFileServlet?file=file:///data1/pdf/etd/azu_e9791_2004_287_sip1_w.pdf&type=application/pdf.
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Vionnet, Leticia Beatriz, and Leticia Beatriz Vionnet. "Investigation of stream-aquifer interactions using a coupled surface water and groundwater flow model." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1995. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/187414.
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A finite element numerical model is developed for the modeling of coupled surface-water flow and ground-water flow. The mathematical treatment of subsurface flows follows the confined aquifer theory or the classical Dupuit approximation for unconfined aquifers whereas surface-water flows are treated with the kinematic wave approximation for open channel flow. A detailed discussion of the standard approaches to represent the coupling term is provided. In this work, a mathematical expression similar to Ohm's law is used to simulate the interacting term between the two major hydrological components. Contrary to the standard approach, the coupling term is incorporated through a boundary flux integral that arises naturally in the weak form of the governing equations rather than through a source term. It is found that in some cases, a branch cut needs to be introduced along the internal boundary representing the stream in order to define a simply connected domain, which is an essential requirement in the derivation of the weak form of the ground-water flow equation. The fast time scale characteristic of surface-water flows and the slow time scale characteristic of ground-water flows are clearly established, leading to the definition of three dimensionless parameters, namely, a Peclet number that inherits the disparity between both time scales, a flow number that relates the pumping rate and the streamflow, and a Biot number that relates the conductance at the river-aquifer interface to the aquifer conductance. The model, implemented in the Bill Williams River Basin, reproduces the observed streamflow patterns and the ground-water flow patterns. Fairly good results are obtained using multiple time steps in the simulation process.
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Samper, Calvete F. Javier(Francisco Javier) 1958. "Statistical methods of analyzing hydrochemical, isotopic, and hydrological data from regional aquifers." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1986. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/191115.
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This dissertation is concerned with the development of mathematical aquifer models that combine hydrological, hydrochemical and isotopic data. One prerequisite for the construction of such models is that prior information about the variables and parameters be quantified in space and time by appropriate statistical methods. Various techniques using multivariate statistical data analyses and geostatistical methods are examined in this context. The available geostatistical methods are extended to deal with the problem at hand. In particular, a three-dimensional interactive geostatistical package has been developed for the estimation of intrinsic and nonintrinsic variables. This package is especially designed for groundwater applications and incorporates a maximum likelihood cross-validation method for estimating the parameters of the covariance function. Unique features of this maximum likelihood cross-validation method include: the use of an adjoint state method to compute the gradient of the likelihood function, the computation of the covariance of the parameter estimates and the use of identification criteria for the selection of a covariance model. In addition, it can be applied to data containing measurement errors, data regularized over variable lengths, and to nonintrinsic variables. The above methods of analysis are applied to synthetic data as well as hydrochemical and isotopic data from the Tucson aquifer in Arizona and the Madrid Basin in Spain. The dissertation also includes a discussion of the processes affecting the transport of dissolved constituents in groundwater, the mathematical formulation of the inverse solute transport problem and a proposed numerical method for its solution.
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Chavez, Rodriguez Adolfo 1951. "Modeling mountain-front recharge to regional aquifers." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1987. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/191124.
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The estimation of mountain-front recharge to regional aquifers is approached from a hydroclimatic standpoint. Analytical models of the seasonal water yield and streamflow are developed in this dissertation. These models are specialized for hard-rock mountainous watersheds where deep percolation occurs through fractures exclusively. Input variables are considered to be stochastic, and a relationship between precipitation and surface runoff is derived by using a deterministic physical process. Streamflow models for the summer and winter rainy seasons are developed separately in terms of known parameters of the storm process and unknown parameters of the physical process. The winter model considers the generation of surface runoff from both rainfall and snowmelt. These models include the long-term effective subsurface outflow from the mountainous watershed, or mountain-front recharge, as one of the parameters to be identified. The parameter estimation problem is posed in the framework of maximum likelihood theory, where prior information about the model parameters and a suitable weighting scheme for the error terms in the estimation criterion are included. The issues of model and parameter identifiability, uniqueness and stability are addressed, and strategies to mitigate identifiability problems in our modeling are discussed. Finally, the seasonal streamflow models are applied to three mountainous watersheds in the Tucson basin, and maximum likelihood estimates of mountain-front recharge and other model and statistical parameters are obtained. The analysis of estimation errors is performed in both the eigenspace and the original space of the parameters.
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黃潤棠 and Yun-tong Anton Wong. "Computational study of wind flow and pollution dispersion in an urban street canyon of various geometries." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2002. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31226905.
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Ernst, Wolfgang F. "The economic rationale for stochastic urban transport models and travel behaviour : a mathematical programming approach to quantitative analysis with Perth data." UWA Business School, 2003. http://theses.library.uwa.edu.au/adt-WU2005.0004.
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[Formulae and special characters can only be approximated here. Please see the pdf version of the abstract for an accurate reproduction.] This thesis reviews, extends and applies to urban traffic analysis the entropy concept of Shannon and Luce's mathematical psychology in a fairly complex and mathematically demanding model of human decision making, if it is solved as a deeply nested structure of logit calculus. Recognising consumers' different preferences and the universal propensity to seek the best choice when going to some desired goal (k), a transparent mathematical program (MP) is developed: the equivalent of a nested multinomial logit model without its inherent computational difficulty. The MP model makes a statistical assessment of individual decisions based on a randomised (measurable) utility within a given choice structure: some path through a diagram (Rk, Dk), designed a priori, of a finite number of sequential choices. The Equivalence Theorem (ET) formalises the process and states a non-linear MP with linear constraints that maximises collective satisfaction: utility plus weighted entropy, where the weight (1/θn) is a behavioural parameter to be calibrated in each case, eg for the Perth CBD. An optimisation subject to feasible routes through the (Rk, Dk) network thus captures the rational behaviour of consumers on their individually different best-choice decision paths towards their respective goals (k). This theory has been applied to urban traffic assignment before: a Stochastic User Equi-librium (SUE). What sets this thesis apart is its focus on MP models that can be solved with standard Operations Research software (eg MINOS), models for which the ET is a conditio sine qua non. A brief list of SUE examples in the literature includes Fisk's logit SUE model in (impractically many) route flows. Dial's STOCH algorithm obviates path enumeration, yet is a logit multi-path assignment procedure, not an MP model; it is nei-ther destination oriented nor an optimisation towards a SUE. A revision of Dial's method is provided, named STOCH[k], that computes primal variables (node and link flows) and Lagrangian duals (the satisfaction difference n→k). Sheffi & Powell presented an unconstrained optimisation problem, but favoured a probit SUE, defying closed formulae and standard OR software. Their model corresponds to the (constrained) dual model here, yet the specifics of our primary MP model and its dual are possible only if one restricts himself to logit SUE models, including the ET, which is logit-specific. A real world application needs decomposition, and the Perth CBD example is iteratively solved by Partial Linearisation, switching from (measured) disutility minimisation to Sheffi & Powell's Method of Successive Averages near the optimum. The methodology is demonstrated on the Perth Central Business District (CBD). To that end, parameter Θ is calibrated on Main Roads' traffic count data over the years 1997/98 and 1998/99. The method is a revision of Liu & Fricker's simultaneous estimation of not only Θ but an appropriate trip matrix also. Our method handles the more difficult variable costs (congestion), incomplete data (missing observations) and observation errors (wrong data). Finally, again based on Main Roads' data (a sub-area trip matrix), a Perth CBD traffic assignment is computed, (a) as a logit SUE and - for comparison - (b) as a DUE (using the PARTAN method of Florian, Guélat and Spiess). The results are only superficially similar. In conclusion, the methodology has the potential to replace current DUE models and to deepen transport policy analysis, taking into account individual behaviour and a money-metric utility that quantifies 'social benefits', for instance in a cost-benefit-analysis.
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Mwelwa, Elenestina Mutekenya. "The application of the monthly time step Pitman rainfall-runoff model to the Kafue River basin of Zambia." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006171.
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This thesis presents a discussion on the study undertaken in the application of the monthly time step Pitman rainfall-runoff model to the Kafue River basin. The study constituted one of the initial steps in the capacity building and expansion of the application of hydrologic models in the southern African region for water resources assessment, one of the core areas of the Southern African FRIEND project (Flow Regimes from International Experimental Network Data). The research process was undertaken in four major stages, each stage working towards achieving the research objectives. The first stage was the preparation of spatial data which included the selection and delineation of sub-catchments and inclusion of spatial features required to run the Pitman model and transferring the spatial data into SPATSIM. The second stage was the preparation of input data, mainly rainfall, streamflow, evaporation, and water abstraction data. This information was then imported into SPATSIM, which was able to assist in the further preparation of data by assessment of the input data quality, linking of observed flows and spatial interpolation of point rainfall data to average catchment rainfall in readiness for running and calibration of the model. The third stage was the running and calibration of the Pitman model. Use was made of both the automatic calibration facility, as well as manual calibration by means of the time series graph display and analysis facility of SPATSIM. Model calibration was used to obtain the best fit and an acceptable correlation between the simulated and the observed flows and to obtain simulation parameter sets for sub-catchments and regions within the Kafue catchment. The fourth stage was the analysis and evaluation of the model results. This included verification of results over different time periods and validation and testing of parameter transfers to other catchments. This stage also included the evaluation of SPATSIM as a tool for applying the model and as a database for the processing and storage of water resources data. The study’s output includes: A comprehensive database of hydrometeorological, physical catchment characteristics, landuse and water abstraction information for the Kafue basin; calibrated Pitman model parameters for the sub-catchments within the Kafue basin; recommendations for future work and data collection programmes for the application of the model. The study has also built capacity by facilitating training and exposure to rainfall-runoff models (specifically the Pitman model) and associated software, SPATSIM. In addition, the dissemination of the results of this study will serve as an effective way of raising awareness on the application of the Pitman model and the use of the SPATSIM software within Zambia and the region. The overall Pitman model results were found to be satisfactory and the calibrated model is able to reproduce the observed spatial and temporal variations in streamflow characteristics in the Kafue River basin.
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Keefer, Timothy Orrin, and Timothy Orrin Keefer. "Likelihood development for a probabilistic flash flood forecasting model." Thesis, The University of Arizona, 1993. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/192077.
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An empirical method is developed for constructing likelihood functions required in a Bayesian probabilistic flash flood forecasting model using data on objective quantitative precipitation forecasts and their verification. Likelihoods based on categorical and probabilistic forecast information for several forecast periods, seasons, and locations are shown and compared. Data record length, forecast information type and magnitude, grid area, and discretized interval size are shown to affect probabilistic differentiation of amounts of potential rainfall. Use of these likelihoods in Bayes' Theorem to update prior probability distributions of potential rainfall, based on preliminary data, to posterior probability distributions, reflecting the latest forecast information, demonstrates that an abbreviated version of the flash flood forecasting methodology is currently practicable. For this application, likelihoods based on the categorical forecast are indicated. Apart from flash flood forecasting, it is shown that likelihoods can provide detailed insight into the value of information contained in particular forecast products.
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Bosch, David Dean 1958. "Derivation and application of effective parameters for modeling moisture flow in heterogeneous unsaturated porous media." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1990. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/191158.
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Spatial variability of porous media often prevents precise physical characterization of the system. In order to model moisture and solute transport through this media, certain sacrifices in precision must be made. Physical characteristics of the system must be averaged over large scales, lumping the small scale variability into the large scale characterization. Although this precludes a precise definition of the small scale flow characteristics, parameterization is much more attainable. This study addresses methods for determining effective hydraulic conductivity of unsaturated porous media. Effective conductivity is used to describe the large scale behavior of the system. Different methods for calculating the effective conductivity are presented and compared. Results indicate that the unit mean gradient method produces good estimates of the effective conductivity and can be applied using limited field data. The zone of correlation of the hydraulic parameters can be used in experimental design to minimize the errors associated with estimation of the mean pressure. An inverse method for evaluating the optimum effective hydraulic parameters is presented. Results indicate the optimization procedure is more sensitive to wetting than to drying conditions. Because of interaction between the hydraulic parameters, concurrent optimization of more than two of the parameters based on soil pressure data alone is not advised. Anisotropy in an unsaturated soil was found to be a function of the profile mean soil pressure. Results indicate the effective conductivity for flow parallel to soil layering can be estimated from the arithmetic mean of the unsaturated conductivity values for each of the layers and is between the harmonic and geometric means of these data for flow perpendicular to the layering. Estimates of the effective unsaturated hydraulic conductivity obtained through stochastic analysis agreed well with simulation results. Deviations between the stochastic predictions and simulation results are larger when the variability of the soil profile is greater and begin to deviate significantly when the variance of ln K(ψ₀) exceeds 5.0 and the variance of a exceeds 0.02 1/cm².
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Sawunyama, Tendai. "Evaluating uncertainty in water resources estimation in Southern Africa : a case study of South Africa." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006176.
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Hydrological models are widely used tools in water resources estimation, but they are simple representations of reality and are frequently based on inadequate input data and uncertainties in parameter values. Data observation networks are expensive to establish and maintain and often beyond the resources of most developing countries. Consequently, measurements are difficult to obtain and observation networks in many countries are shrinking, hence obtaining representative observations in space and time remains a challenge. This study presents some guidelines on the identification, quantification and reduction of sources of uncertainty in water resources estimation in southern Africa, a data scarce region. The analyses are based on example sub-basins drawn from South Africa and the application of the Pitman hydrological model. While it has always been recognised that estimates of water resources availability for the region are subject to possible errors, the quantification of these uncertainties has never been explicitly incorporated into the methods used in the region. The motivation for this study was therefore to contribute to the future development of a revised framework for water resources estimation that does include uncertainty. The focus was on uncertainties associated with climate input data, parameter estimation (and recognizing the uncertainty due model structure deficiencies) methods and water use data. In addition to variance based measures of uncertainty, this study also used a reservoir yield based statistic to evaluate model output uncertainty, which represents an integrated measure of flow regime variations and one that can be more easily understood by water resources managers. Through a sensitivity analysis approach, the results of the individual contribution of each source of uncertainty suggest regional differences and that clear statements about which source of uncertainty is likely to dominate are not generally possible. Parameter sensitivity analysis was used in identifying parameters which are important withinspecific sub-basins and therefore those to focus on in uncertainty analysis. The study used a simple framework for evaluating the combined contribution of uncertainty sources to model outputs that is consistent with the model limitations and data available, and that allows direct quantitative comparison between model outputs obtained by using different sources of information and methods within Spatial and Time Series Information Modelling (SPATSIM) software. The results from combining the sources of uncertainties showed that parameter uncertainty dominates the contribution to model output uncertainty. However, in some parts of the country especially those with complex topography, which tend to experience high rainfall spatial variability, rainfall uncertainty is equally dominant, while the contributions of evaporation and water use data uncertainty are relatively small. While the results of this study are encouraging, the weaknesses of the methods used to quantify uncertainty (especially subjectivity involved in evaluating parameter uncertainty) should not be neglected and require further evaluations. An effort to reduce data and parameter uncertainty shows that this can only be achieved if data access at appropriate scale and quality improves. Perhaps the focus should be on maintaining existing networks and concentrating research efforts on making the most out of the emerging data products derived from remote sensing platforms. While this study presents some initial guidelines for evaluating uncertainty in South Africa, there is need to overcome several constraints which are related to data availability and accuracy, the models used and the capacity or willingness to adopt new methods that incorporate uncertainty. The study has provided a starting point for the development of new approaches to modelling water resources in the region that include uncertain estimates.
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Kim, Kihong. "Recent Advances in Activity-Based Travel Demand Models for Greater Flexibility." PDXScholar, 2018. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/4225.
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Most existing activity-based travel demand models are implemented in a tour-based microsimulation framework. Due to the significant computational and data storage benefits, the demand microsimulation allows a greater amount of flexibility in terms of demographic market segmentation, temporal scale, and spatial resolution, and thus the models can represent a wider range of travel behavior aspects associated with various policies and scenarios. This dissertation proposes three innovative methodologies, one for each of the three key dimensions, to fulfill the greater level of details toward a more mature state of activity-based travel demand models.
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Kapangaziwiri, Evison. "Revised parameter estimation methods for the Pitman monthly rainfall-runoff model." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1006172.
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In recent years, increased demands have been placed on hydrologists to find the most effective methods of making predictions of hydrologic variables in ungauged basins. A huge part of the southern African region is ungauged and, in gauged basins, the extent to which observed flows represent natural flows is unknown, given unquantified upstream activities. The need to exploit water resources for social and economic development, considered in the light of water scarcity forecasts for the region, makes the reliable quantification of water resources a priority. Contemporary approaches to the problem of hydrological prediction in ungauged basins in the region have relied heavily on calibration against a limited gauged streamflow database and somewhat subjective parameter regionalizations using areas of assumed hydrological similarity. The reliance of these approaches on limited historical records, often of dubious quality, introduces uncertainty in water resources decisions. Thus, it is necessary to develop methods of estimating model parameters that are less reliant on calibration. This thesis addresses the question of whether physical basin properties and the role they play in runoff generation processes can be used directly in the estimation of parameter values of the Pitman monthly rainfall-runoff model. A physically-based approach to estimating the soil moisture accounting and runoff parameters of a conceptual, monthly time-step rainfall-runoff model is proposed. The study investigates the physical meaning of the model parameters, establishes linkages between parameter values and basin physical properties and develops relationships and equations for estimating the parameters taking into account the spatial and temporal scales used in typical model applications. The estimationmethods are then tested in selected gauged basins in southern Africa and the results of model simulations evaluated against historical observed flows. The results of 71 basins chosen from the southern African region suggest that it is possible to directly estimate hydrologically relevant parameters for the Pitman model from physical basin attributes. For South Africa, the statistical and visual fit of the simulations using the revised parameters were at least as good as the current regional sets, albeit the parameter sets being different. In the other countries where no regionalized parameter sets currently exist, simulations were equally good. The availability, within the southern African region, of the appropriate physical basin data and the disparities in the spatial scales and the levels of detail of the data currently available were identified as potential sources of uncertainty. GIS and remote sensing technologies and a widespread use of this revised approach are expected to facilitate access to these data.
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Leung, Shuk-yee Betty, and 梁淑儀. "Urban taxi service in Hong Kong." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 1999. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31952148.
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Zhao, Yunzhong. "Analysis and comparison of blood lead risk area models for selected urban areas in Indiana." Muncie, Ind. : Ball State University, 2009. http://cardinalscholar.bsu.edu/679.
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Edelstein, Christopher. "Climatic conditions and storm hydrology of a small agricultural watershed." Virtual Press, 2005. http://liblink.bsu.edu/uhtbin/catkey/1314224.
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Climatic conditions (precipitation, evapotranspiration, available soil moisture, and temperature) are important variables when considering cumulative storm streamflow for a watershed. The objective of this study was to determine what climatic conditions, if any, could be used to mathematically model cumulative storm streamflow for an extensively-drained small agricultural watershed in northwest Delaware County, Indiana. A water-level recorder was installed in Killbuck Creek during autumn 2002, spring, summer, and autumn 2003 and 2004. To determine discharge, velocity measurements were collected following US Geological Survey (USGS) methods and two rating curves (high and low flow) were constructed. Simple linear regressions were performed using cumulative streamflow as the dependent variable and precipitation, evapotranspiration, available soil moisture, temperature, and runoff as independent variables. Multiple linear regressions were used to examine combinations of the independent variables. Cumulative streamflow was most related to precipitation (r2 = 0.23 and p < 0.001) and least related to temperature (r2 = 0.03 and p < 0.5). The multiple linear regression from the combination of precipitation, runoff, and temperature provided the most accurate cumulative streamflow simulation (R2 = 0.53 and p < 0.001). Multiple linear regressions using climatic variables can be used to estimate cumulative streamflow for an agricultural watershed.Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Management
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Latham, Michael John. "An assessment of models and methodologies used in the design of detention facilities for small urban watersheds." Thesis, This resource online, 1996. http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-09182008-063108/.
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Abeykoon, Mahinda. "Stepwise application of unconstrained linear mixture model for classification of urban land cover." Virtual Press, 2004. http://liblink.bsu.edu/uhtbin/catkey/1306381.
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This study involves stepwise application of Unconstrained Linear Mixer Model (ULMM) for sub-pixel classification of residential areas using Land sat 7 TM image. The image was geometrically and radiometrically corrected and spectral enhancement and classifications were done to determine the possible number of target classes. In the first step, five end-members were used as inputs and the pixels which were considered as well fit to ULMM were identified as outputs. The unidentified pixels were separated and taken to the second step with new end members. This method identified 52% of the mixed pixels were identified in the first phase and 6% in the second phase. 42% of the pixels were left as unidentified after the two steps. The pixels identified by ULMM were grouped into high and low density residential subclasses. The resulting image indicated very low RMS errors. However the percentages of pixels unidentified were high. The independent accuracy test carried out using census population density and the resulting image indicated a low relationship. A hyper-spectral imagery with finer spatial resolution may provide a better sub pixel classification.Department of Geography
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Foucart, Renaud. "Essays in product diversity and urban transportation." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/209677.
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This dissertation is about games with a continuum of players and horizontal differentiation. The first chapter explains how price dispersion can be a feature of a competitive market with homogenous information and production costs. The second chapter extends the study to group consumption. The third chapter is about multiple equilibria in urban transportation.Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished