Journal articles on the topic 'Urban economics – Ontario – Toronto Region'

Abstract Being the economic engine of Canada and the home of 5 million people, the environmental health of the Golden Horseshoe is very important. Among various pollution sources into the lake, urban oil spills as a non-point pollution source have not caught the attention of most residents. These spills can cause terrestrial impacts by poisoning animals and plants, groundwater contamination by infiltration, and surface water pollution by algal bloom and fish kills and destruction of freshwater invertebrates and vertebrates. In order to investigate the significance of this pollution source, 10 years of spill records in the Golden Horseshoe have been compiled. On the average, about 1050 L per day of oil escaped to the land, water and air environment in this region. About one-third of these spills eventually entered Lake Ontario. Among various types of spilled oil, gasoline, diesel fuel, aviation fuel and furnace oil accounted for the highest reported volume. The former Metropolitan Toronto led the frequency and volume of spills, while Hamilton-Wentworth followed closely. Spills frequently occur on roads, at service stations and at electrical transformers, while the highest spill event volumes occur at bulk plants/terminals/depots and at refineries. The predominant causes of spills are related to leaks from containers, pipes and hoses, and cooling systems. However, the principal reasons for oil spills are human error and equipment failure. The transportation, public and petroleum sectors are responsible for 60% of the reported spill cases, while the petroleum sector alone accounts for nearly 50% of the reported spill volume. Given the significant volume of spilled oil, it is important that all levels of government and private industries increase their effort to promote pollution prevention such as preventive maintenance, improved employee training and/or retraining, and proper vigilant supervision. Additionally, control devices such as oil-water interceptors should be sized properly and implemented at strategic location across the Golden Horseshoe.

The article attempts to present dilemmas related to shaping metropolitan policy in Canada, and then relate them to problems occurring in Poland. It is a part of the debate on seeking the right governance configurations and discourses in response to the communities’ needs. Particular attention is paid to the characteristics of the scales of governance and socio-spatial relations in the Toronto metropolitan area. The article has been divided into four main parts. Part one outlines the theoretical framework and the context of the conducted analyses. Part two describes the structures and processes of regional and metropolitan governance in Southern Ontario, with the earlier reference to the institutional conditions and directions of reforms characteristic of the whole of Canada. Part three of the study concerns the governance arrangements that may constitute important reference points for the scientific and political discourse taking place in Poland. Part four is an attempt to capture the similarities and universal premises that have a decisive influence on the processes of forming metropolitan structures and policies, both in Canada and in Poland. The assumption was made that, despite different historical and socio-cultural conditions, comparing Canadian and Polish experiences is justified, necessary and possible. Firstly, due to the reason that socio-spatial relations in various territorial systems are subject to the same development processes and the accompanying processes of transformation and adaptation. Secondly, residents (members of local, metropolitan, regional, national and supranational communities) have similar needs and expect a high quality of life. Decision-makers and actors of political scenes in different geographical spaces have (or may have) the same technologies, ways of information processing, access to knowledge and knowledge of socio-economic processes. They also face challenges related to the inclusion of citizens in decision-making processes. The analysis of metropolitan processes in both countries emphasizes the differences resulting from various historical and economic contexts of development and also makes it possible to identify universal mechanisms and regularities independent of these contexts. The practice of metropolitan policy proves that the process of re-territorialization of power structures and governance is shaped as a resultant of the impact of forces and interests at all levels of territorial authorities: central, regional and local. Based on the analysis of the processes of the formation of metropolitan structures in Canada and Poland, it can be stated that the rank and position of regional authorities play a key role in it. In Canada, strong regional authorities initiate actions for the shaping of metropolitan structures and formulate the scope of their competence and organization. The importance of central authorities for the dynamics of metropolitan processes is secondary in this case. The weakness of regional authorities in Poland leads to the inability to give metropolitan processes the dynamics of development and the legislative rank adequate for the role played by urban regions in the socio-economic development of the country. As evidenced by the example of Toronto, the evolution of the governance system in practice initiates the process of self-learning the system which goes from one to another phase of development, improving the quality of its operation. In Poland, however, the process of creation of governance structures adequate for realistically existing functional metropolitan areas has been stopped, notably, due to the unfavourable political decisions at the central level.

Purpose This paper aims to present a panel data econometric model of the main determinants of house prices in the ten largest census metropolitan areas (CMA) in Ontario, Canada, for the years 2001, 2006 and 2011. The impact of immigration on the housing market in Canada is little researched; however, immigration plays an important role into the economy of Canada. According to Statistics Canada, not only is immigration key to Canada’s population growth but also without immigration, in the next 20 years, Canada’s population growth will be zero. The motivation for this study is the bursting of housing bubbles in some developed countries (e.g. USA). The authors analyze variables that are related to the immigration policy in Canada, accounting also for the impact of the interest rate, income, unemployment, household size and housing supply to analyze housing price determinants. The study investigates the magnitude of the impact of the top three leading categories of immigrants to Canada, namely, Chinese, Indian and Filipino, on the housing prices in Ontario’s largest cities. The results show the main factors that explain home prices over time that are interest rate, immigration, unemployment rate, household size and income. Over the 10-year period from 2001 to 2011, immigration grew by 400 per cent in Toronto CMA, the largest receiving area in Ontario, while the nonimmigrant population grew by 14 per cent. For Toronto CMA, immigrants, income, unemployment rate and interest rate explain the CA$158,875 average home price increase over the 2001-2011 time period. Out of this, the three categories of immigrants’ share of total home price increase is 54.57 per cent, with the corresponding interest rate share 58.60 per cent and income share 11.32 per cent of the total price growth. Unemployment rate contributes negatively to the housing price and its share of the total price increase is 24.49 per cent. Design/methodology/approach The framework for the empirical analysis applies the hedonic pricing model theory to housing sales prices for the ten largest CMAs in Ontario over the years 2001-2011. Following Akbari and Aydede (2012) and O’Meara (2015), market clearing in the housing market results in the housing price as a function of several housing attributes. The authors selected the housing attributes based on data availability for the Canadian Census years of 2001, 2006 and 2011 and the variables that have been most used in the literature. The model has the average housing prices as the dependent variable, and the independent variables are: immigrants per dwelling (Chinese, Indian, and Filipino), unemployment rate, average employment income, household size, housing supply and the interest rate. To capture the relative scarcity of dwellings, the independent variable immigrants per dwelling was used. Findings This study seems to suggest that one cause of high prices in Ontario is large inflows of immigrants together with low mortgage interest rate. The authors focused their attention on Toronto CMA, as it is the main destination of immigrants and comprises the largest cities, including Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton and Oakville. Looking over the 10-year period from 2001 to 2011, the authors can see the factors that impact the home prices in Toronto CMA: immigration, unemployment rate, household size, interest rate and income. Over the period of 10 years from 2001 to 2011, immigrants’ group from China, India and the Philippines account for CA$86,701 increase in the home price (54.57 per cent share of the total increase). Income accounts for CA$17,986 increase in the home price (11.32 per cent share); interest rate accounts for CA$93,103 of the average home price increase in Toronto CMA (58.60 per cent share); and unemployment rate accounts for CA$38,916 decrease in the Toronto average home prices (24.49 per cent share). Household size remain stable over time in Toronto (2.8 average household size) and does not have a contribution to home price change. All these four factors, interest rate, immigrants, unemployment rate and income, together explain CA$158,875 increase in home prices in Toronto CMA between 2001 and 2011. Practical implications The housing market price analysis may be more complex, and there may be factors impacting the housing prices extending beyond immigration, interest rate, income and household size. Finally, the results of this paper can be extended to include the most recent census data for the year 2016 to reflect more accurately the price situation in the housing market for Ontario cities. Social implications The fact that currently, in 2017, the young working population cannot afford buying a property in the Toronto CMA area means there is a problem with this market and a corresponding decrease in the quality of life. According to The Globe and Mail (July 2017), a new pool in 2017 suggested that two in five Canadians believe housing in this country is not affordable for them. Further, 38 per cent of respondents who consider themselves middle or upper class believe in no affordability of housing. The Trudeau Government promised Canadians a national housing strategy for affordable housing. Designing a national housing strategy may be challenging because it has to account for the differential income ranges across regions. Municipal leaders are asking the government to prioritize repair and construct new affordable housing. Another reason discussed in the media of the unaffordability of housing in Toronto and Vancouver is foreign buyers. The Canadian Government recently implemented a tax measure on what it may seem the housing bubble problem: foreign buyers. Following Vancouver, in April 2017, Ontario Government imposed a 15 per cent tax on foreign buyers who are not Canadian citizens or permanent residents. This tax is levied on houses purchased in the area stretching from Niagara Region and Greater Toronto to Peterborough. Originality/value Few studies use Canadian data to explain house prices and analyze the effect of immigration on housing prices. There is not much research on the effect of the immigrants and immigrants’ ethnicity (e.g., Chinese, Indian and Filipino immigrants), on the housing prices in Canada cities. This study investigates the impact of the most prevalent immigrant races (e.g., from China, India and the Philippines) on housing prices, using data for Canadian major cities in Ontario within a panel data econometric framework. This paper fills this gap and contributes to the literature, which analyzes the determinants of housing prices based on a panel of cities in the Canadian province of Ontario.

Abstract. In this study a photoacoustic spectrometer (PA), a laser-induced incandescence instrument system (LII) and an Aerosol Mass Spectrometer were operated in parallel for in-situ measurements of black carbon (BC) light absorption enhancement. Results of a thermodenuder experiment using ambient particles in Toronto are presented first to show that LII measurements of BC are not influenced by the presence of non-refractory material thus providing true atmospheric BC mass concentrations. In contrast, the PA response is enhanced when the non-refractory material is internally mixed with the BC particles. Through concurrent measurements using the LII and PA the specific absorption cross-section (SAC) can be quantified with high time resolution (1 min). Comparisons of ambient PA and LII measurements from four different locations (suburban Toronto; a street canyon with diesel bus traffic in Ottawa; adjacent to a commuter highway in Ottawa and; regional background air in and around Windsor, Ontario), show that different impacts from emission sources and/or atmospheric processes result in different particle light absorption enhancements and hence variations in the SAC. The diversity of measurements obtained, including those with the thermodenuder, demonstrated that it is possible to identify measurements where the presence of externally-mixed non-refractory particles obscures direct observation of the effect of coating material on the SAC, thus allowing this effect to be measured with more confidence. Depending upon the time and location of measurement (urban, rural, close to and within a lake breeze frontal zone), 30 min average SAC varies between 9 ± 2 and 43 ± 4 m2 g−1. Causes of this variation, which were determined through the use of meteorological and gaseous measurements (CO, SO2, O3), include the particle emission source, airmass source region, the degree of atmospheric processing. Observations from this study also show that the active surface area of the BC aggregate, which is measured by the LII as the PPS, is an important parameter for inferring the degree of particle collapse of a BC particle. In addition, PPS could be a useful measurement for indicating the importance of recently emitted BC (e.g. from gasoline or diesel engines) relative to the total measured BC in the atmosphere.

Bioblitzes are typically 24-hour biological surveys of a defined region carried out by taxonomic specialists, citizen scientists, and the general public. The largest in Canada is the Ontario BioBlitz, an annual event held in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Between 2013 and 2016, we examined the feasibility of including lichens and allied fungi in the Ontario BioBlitz. These taxa are often overlooked, understudied, and taxonomically difficult. We completed a bioblitz in each of the four major watersheds in the GTA and recorded 138 species in 72 genera which, combined with all previous collections, totals 180 species in 88 genera in the area. Thirteen of the species we collected are provincially ranked as S1 (critically imperilled), S2 (imperilled), or S3 (vulnerable). We collected Lecanora carpinea for the first time in Ontario. Our results provide a baseline list of GTA lichens that can be used for monitoring. This is one of the first detailed lichen surveys of a major North American urban area and it demonstrates that rapid bioblitz surveys are proficient in capturing lichen diversity despite their inconspicuous nature and the advanced microscopy and chemical analyses required for their identification.

Surface-level ozone (O3) continues to be a significant health risk in the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA) of Canada even though precursor emissions in the area have decreased significantly over the past two decades. In July 2015, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) led an intensive field study coincident with Toronto hosting the 2015 Pan American Games. During the field study, the daily 1-h maximum O3 standard (80 ppbv) was exceeded twice at a measurement site in North Toronto, once on July 12 and again on July 28. In this study, ECCC’s 2.5-km configuration of the Global Environmental Multi-scale (GEM) meteorological model was combined with the Modelling Air-quality and CHemistry (MACH) on-line atmospheric chemistry model and the Town Energy Balance (TEB) urban surface parameterization to create a new urban air quality modelling system. In general, the model results showed that the nested 2.5-km grid-spaced urban air quality model performed better in statistical scores compared to the piloting 10-km grid-spaced GEM-MACH model without TEB. Model analyses were performed with GEM-MACH-TEB for the two exceedance periods. The local meteorology for both cases consisted of light winds with the highest O3 predictions situated along lake-breeze fronts. For the July 28 case, O3 production sensitivity analysis along the trajectory of the lake-breeze circulation showed that the region of most efficient O3 production occurred in the updraft region of the lake-breeze front, as the precursors to O3 formation underwent vertical mixing. In this updraft region, the ozone production switches from volatile organic compound (VOC)-sensitive to NOx-sensitive, and the local net O3 production rate reaches a maximum. This transition in the chemical regime is a previously unidentified factor for why O3 surface-level mixing ratios maximize along the lake-breeze front. For the July 12 case, differences between the model and observed Lake Ontario water temperature and the strength of lake-breeze opposing wind flow play a role in differences in the timing of the lake-breeze, which impacts the predicted location of the O3 maximum north of Toronto.

Abstract. Many stakeholders are seeking methods to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in urban areas, but reliable, high-resolution inventories are required to guide these efforts. We present the development of a high-resolution CO2 inventory available for the Greater Toronto Area and surrounding region in Southern Ontario, Canada (area of ∼ 2.8 × 105 km2, 26 % of the province of Ontario). The new SOCE (Southern Ontario CO2 Emissions) inventory is available at the 2.5 × 2.5 km spatial and hourly temporal resolution and characterizes emissions from seven sectors: area, residential natural-gas combustion, commercial natural-gas combustion, point, marine, on-road, and off-road. To assess the accuracy of the SOCE inventory, we developed an observation–model framework using the GEM-MACH chemistry–transport model run on a high-resolution grid with 2.5 km grid spacing coupled to the Fossil Fuel Data Assimilation System (FFDAS) v2 inventories for anthropogenic CO2 emissions and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) land carbon model C-TESSEL for biogenic fluxes. A run using FFDAS for the Southern Ontario region was compared to a run in which its emissions were replaced by the SOCE inventory. Simulated CO2 mixing ratios were compared against in situ measurements made at four sites in Southern Ontario – Downsview, Hanlan's Point, Egbert and Turkey Point – in 3 winter months, January–March 2016. Model simulations had better agreement with measurements when using the SOCE inventory emissions versus other inventories, quantified using a variety of statistics such as correlation coefficient, root-mean-square error, and mean bias. Furthermore, when run with the SOCE inventory, the model had improved ability to capture the typical diurnal pattern of CO2 mixing ratios, particularly at the Downsview, Hanlan's Point, and Egbert sites. In addition to improved model–measurement agreement, the SOCE inventory offers a sectoral breakdown of emissions, allowing estimation of average time-of-day and day-of-week contributions of different sectors. Our results show that at night, emissions from residential and commercial natural-gas combustion and other area sources can contribute > 80 % of the CO2 enhancement, while during the day emissions from the on-road sector dominate, accounting for > 70 % of the enhancement.

Abstract. In Canada, risk of flooding due to heavy rainfall has risen in recent decades; the most notable recent examples include the July 2013 storm in the Greater Toronto region and the May 2017 flood of the Toronto Islands. We investigate nonstationarity and trends in the short-duration precipitation extremes in selected urbanized locations in Southern Ontario, Canada, and evaluate the potential of nonstationary intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves, which form an input to civil infrastructural design. Despite apparent signals of nonstationarity in precipitation extremes in all locations, the stationary vs. nonstationary models do not exhibit any significant differences in the design storm intensity, especially for short recurrence intervals (up to 10 years). The signatures of nonstationarity in rainfall extremes do not necessarily imply the use of nonstationary IDFs for design considerations. When comparing the proposed IDFs with current design standards, for return periods (10 years or less) typical for urban drainage design, current design standards require an update of up to 7 %, whereas for longer recurrence intervals (50–100 years), ideal for critical civil infrastructural design, updates ranging between ∼ 2 and 44 % are suggested. We further emphasize that the above findings need re-evaluation in the light of climate change projections since the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation are expected to intensify due to global warming.

Abstract. We present a new method of determining the size and composition of CCN-active aerosol particles. Method utility is illustrated through a series of ambient measurements. A continuous-flow thermal-gradient diffusion chamber (TGDC), pumped counterflow virtual impactor (PCVI), and Aerodyne time-of-flight mass spectrometer (AMS) are operated in series. Ambient particles are sampled into the TGDC, where a constant supersaturation is maintained, and CCN-active particles grow to ~2.5±0.5 μm. The output flow from the TGDC is directed into the PCVI, where a counterflow of dry N2 gas opposes the particle-laden flow, creating a region of zero velocity. This stagnation plane can only be traversed by particles with sufficient momentum, which depends on their size. Particles that have activated in the TGDC cross the stagnation plane and are entrained in the PCVI output flow, while the unactivated particles are diverted to a pump. Because the input gas is replaced by the counterflow gas with better than 99% efficiency at the stagnation plane, the output flow consists almost entirely of dry N2 and water evaporates from the activated particles. In this way, the system yields an ensemble of CCN-active particles whose chemical composition and size are analyzed using the AMS. Measurements of urban aerosol in downtown Toronto identified an external mixture of CCN-active particles consisting almost entirely of ammonium nitrate and ammonium sulfate, with CCN-inactive particles of the same size consisting of a mixture of ammonium nitrate, ammonium sulfate, and organics. We also discuss results from the first field deployment of the TGDC-PCVI-AMS system, conducted from mid-May to mid-June 2007 in Egbert, Ontario, a semirural site ~80 km north of Toronto influenced both by clean air masses from the north and emissions from the city. Organic-dominated particles sampled during a major biogenic event exhibited higher CCN activity and/or faster growth kinetics than urban outflow from Toronto, despite the latter having a higher inorganic content and higher O:C ratio. During both events, particles were largely internally mixed.

Abstract. We present a new method of determining the size and composition of CCN-active aerosol particles. Method utility is illustrated through a series of ambient measurements. A continuous-flow thermal-gradient diffusion chamber (TGDC), pumped counterflow virtual impactor (PCVI), and Aerodyne time-of-flight mass spectrometer (AMS) are operated in series. Ambient particles are sampled into the TGDC, where a constant supersaturation is maintained, and CCN-active particles grow to ~2.5 ± 0.5 μm. The output flow from the TGDC is directed into the PCVI, where a counterflow of dry N2 gas opposes the particle-laden flow, creating a region of zero axial velocity. This stagnation plane can only be traversed by particles with sufficient momentum, which depends on their size. Particles that have activated in the TGDC cross the stagnation plane and are entrained in the PCVI output flow, while the unactivated particles are diverted to a pump. Because the input gas is replaced by the counterflow gas with better than 99 % efficiency at the stagnation plane, the output flow consists almost entirely of dry N2 and water evaporates from the activated particles. In this way, the system yields an ensemble of CCN-active particles whose chemical composition and size are analyzed using the AMS. Measurements of urban aerosol in downtown Toronto identified an external mixture of CCN-active particles consisting almost entirely of ammonium nitrate and ammonium sulfate, with CCN-inactive particles of the same size consisting of a mixture of ammonium nitrate, ammonium sulfate, and organics. We also discuss results from the first field deployment of the TGDC-PCVI-AMS system, conducted from mid-May to mid-June 2007 in Egbert, Ontario, a semirural site ~80 km north of Toronto influenced both by clean air masses from the north and emissions from the city. Organic-dominated particles sampled during a major biogenic event exhibited higher CCN activity and/or faster growth kinetics than urban outflow from Toronto, despite the latter having a higher inorganic content and higher O:C ratio. During both events, particles were largely internally mixed.

Introduction: Understanding how homeless patients interact with healthcare systems can be challenging. The nature of the population is such that identifying and following these persons can be severely limited by data. Previous studies have used survey data which relies on self-reporting and selected samples such as those persons admitted to homeless shelters (Gray et al. 2011). Other studies have been able to leverage administrative data but only for selected local geographic areas (Somers et al. 2016, Tompkins et al 2003). It is possible that the current literature has not examined a large proportion of homeless persons and their healthcare use. This is concerning because this population can have higher associated medical costs and greater medical resource utilization especially with regards to psychiatric and emergency department (ED) resources (Tulloch et al. 2012, Forchuk et al, 2015). Methods: Administrative health data (2010 to 2017) is used to analyze ambulatory care records for homeless individuals in Ontario, Canada. Uniquely, we are able to use ED contacts as a way of identifying homeless migrations from region to region within Ontario. Using a network analysis we identify high impact ED nodes and discrete hospital networks where homeless patients congregate. We are also able to more fully characterize this population's demographics, health issues, and disposition from the ED. Results: We provide a more complete understanding of migration patterns for homeless individuals, across Ontario and their concomitant ED use and hospitalizations. The three most frequented regions in Ontario (n = 640,897) were Toronto Central (35.96%), Hamilton Niagara Halimand Brant (8.9%) and Champlain (7.84%). In subsequent visits, the majority of patients presented to different EDs, however a subgroup who always presented to the same site was present. Over the 7 year period, migration between visits occurred most often between urban areas, and increased as a whole. Conclusion: The results of the study allow for the enhancement care coordination for vulnerable populations and enhance the availability and delivery of services for sub-groups of homelessness whose care needs may differ based on migration patterns. Services can be coordinated between jurisdictions for homeless individuals, and appropriate referrals can be made across the health care system. Further evidence is provided for a novel method of mapping migration among the homeless and its associations and effects on ED use.

The research finds evidence in support of and wide recognition of the practical value of management system standards (MSS) by assisting municipalities in meeting their human health protection, environmental objectives, addressing environmental and property damage risks, and providing an additional mechanism of public accountability and transparency. Semi-structured interviews were applied to assess perceptions with practitioners and environmental non-governmental organizations on whether a similar approach to the legally required drinking water quality management standard (DWQMS) could be applied for the municipal wastewater and stormwater sectors. Twelve Ontario municipalities have adopted or are in the process of adopting an ISO 14001 environmental management system (EMS) standard for their wastewater and/or stormwater systems, which represents 66% of Ontario’s population. With the large urban centres (e.g., Toronto, York Region, Durham Region, Halton Region and Peel Region) adopting the standard, this is likely to influence small to medium-sized cities to follow a similar approach. Although, resources might be a factor preventing the cohort of smaller utilities voluntarily taking this path. Regulations governing Ontario’s municipal drinking water, wastewater and stormwater utilities were compared via gap analysis. Gaps on management of the system, performance monitoring, auditing and having minimum design criteria left the municipal wastewater and stormwater sectors behind in comparison with recently updated (2004–2008) regulatory framework for the drinking water sector. Based on the identification and review of significant gaps in wastewater and stormwater regulation (compared with the drinking water sector), environmental MSS should be incorporated to strengthen the regulatory framework of these sectors. These phenomena also depict a form of sustainable governance with the use of MSS, which are initiated, developed and regulated by non-state actors, recognizing the value of non-state rule instruments in the water, wastewater and stormwater sectors.

With increased frequency of extreme weather events due to climate change, there is growing need for urban, small-scale adaptation and preventative measures such as stormwater management to reduce the risk of flooding. Homeowners are often reluctant to adopt preventative stormwater measures without tangible benefits or direct experience with the flooding risks or other negative externalities. Using community-based social marketing (CBSM) as a framework, we investigated how to more effectively encourage stormwater management at the household level. In collaboration with the Canadian non-profit organization, Reep Green Solutions (Region of Waterloo, Ontario), we focused on an existing program, the RAIN Home Visit (RHV), which was designed to increase engagement in pro-environmental stormwater management behaviors. Reports from the RHV were assessed, and past program participants were interviewed using a semi-structured question set to identify barriers encountered in enacting these behaviors and to assess the program for inclusion of CBSM principles and tools. Surveys were used to collect demographic data from participants. We found that while preferred behaviors were explained and incentives were provided, more thorough, clear explanation was needed for homeowners as well as incentives of suitable size and value to effectively motivate homeowners to change. Key features that should be included in future RHV programs are public commitments, follow-up, and reminders. Further research should consider risk perception impacts with CBSM, to determine how these can work together and, perhaps, which precedes the other. Some people may be more influenced by social norms to act and others by risk perception.

The author, Co-Chair, Urban Sustainability Task Force of the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy, and Special Advisor to the Mayor of the City of Ottawa, is a former senior public servant and international consultant with extensive experience in public administration, policy formulation and program management relating to economic and regional growth, infrastructure development, social development as well as urban planning and conservation. With degrees in International Affairs from Carleton College in Minnesota and Political Science and Economics from Columbia University, he also holds Certificates in Russian Studies from Columbia University and in Military and Strategic Studies from the National Defense College in Kingston, Ontario. Mr Aquilina had a long career in the federal public service which included appointments to the Civil Service Commission, the Prime Minister's Office and the Privy Council Office. He served as Assistant-Deputy Minister in the Departments of Regional Economic Expansion, Secretary of State and Finance. He also occupied the positions of Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Board, General Manager of the National Capital Commission and Chair of the Task Force on Decentralization of Government Operations. As a consultant, he provided senior advice to the governmentof Lebanon on public service reform and headed a task force in Ethiopia on public finance reform. He was also a senior member of two missions from Canada to the governments of Benin and Haiti. The text that follows is an edited version of a paper presented at the international symposion on "The Natural City, " Toronto, 23-25 June, 2004, sponsored by the University of Toronto's Division of the Environment, Institute for Environmental Studies, and the World Society for Ekistics.

Abstract. Tropospheric NO2 vertical column densities were retrieved for the first time in Toronto, Canada using three methods of differing spatial scales. Remotely-sensed NO2 vertical column densities, retrieved from multi-axis differential optical absorption spectroscopy and satellite remote sensing, were evaluated by comparison with in situ vertical column densities derived using a pair of chemiluminescence monitors situated 0.01 and 0.5 km above ground level. The chemiluminescence measurements were corrected for the influence of NOz, which reduced the NO2 concentrations at 0.01 and 0.5 km by 8 ± 1% and 12 ± 1%, respectively. The average absolute decrease in the chemiluminescence NO2 measurement as a result of this correction was less than 1 ppb. Good correlation was observed between the remotely sensed and in situ NO2 vertical column densities (Pearson R ranging from 0.68 to 0.79), but the in situ vertical column densities were 27% to 55% greater than the remotely-sensed columns. These results indicate that NO2 horizontal heterogeneity strongly impacted the magnitude of the remotely-sensed columns. The in situ columns reflected an urban environment with major traffic sources, while the remotely-sensed NO2 vertical column densities were representative of the region, which included spatial heterogeneity introduced by residential neighbourhoods and Lake Ontario. Despite the difference in absolute values, the reasonable correlation between the vertical column densities determined by three distinct methods increased confidence in the validity of the values provided by each of the methods.

Abstract. Tropospheric NO2 vertical column densities have been retrieved and compared for the first time in Toronto, Canada, using three methods of differing spatial scales. Remotely sensed NO2 vertical column densities, retrieved from multi-axis differential optical absorption spectroscopy and satellite remote sensing, were evaluated by comparison with in situ vertical column densities estimated using a pair of chemiluminescence monitors situated 0.01 and 0.5 km a.g.l. (above ground level). The chemiluminescence measurements were corrected for the influence of NOz, which reduced the NO2 concentrations at 0.01 and 0.5 km by an average of 8 ± 1% and 12 ± 1%, respectively. The average absolute decrease in the chemiluminescence NO2 measurement as a result of this correction was less than 1 ppb. The monthly averaged ratio of the NO2 concentration at 0.5 to 0.01 km varied seasonally, and exhibited a negative linear dependence on the monthly average temperature, with Pearson's R = 0.83. During the coldest month, February, this ratio was 0.52 ± 0.04, while during the warmest month, July, this ratio was 0.34 ± 0.04, illustrating that NO2 is not well mixed within 0.5 km above ground level. Good correlation was observed between the remotely sensed and in situ NO2 vertical column densities (Pearson's R value ranging from 0.72 to 0.81), but the in situ vertical column densities were 52 to 58% greater than the remotely sensed columns. These results indicate that NO2 horizontal heterogeneity strongly impacted the magnitude of the remotely sensed columns. The in situ columns reflected an urban environment with major traffic sources, while the remotely sensed NO2 vertical column densities were representative of the region, which included spatial heterogeneity introduced by residential neighbourhoods and Lake Ontario. Despite the difference in absolute values, the reasonable correlation between the vertical column densities determined by three distinct methods increased confidence in the validity of the values provided by each measurement technique.

Abstract. Benzene and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are toxic air pollutants that have long been associated with motor vehicle emissions, though the importance of such emissions has never been quantified over an extended domain using a chemical transport model. Herein we present the first application of such a model (GEM-MACH-PAH) to examine the contribution of motor vehicles to benzene and PAHs in ambient air. We have applied the model over a region that is centred on Toronto, Canada, and includes much of southern Ontario and the northeastern United States. The resolution (2.5 km) was the highest ever employed by a model for these compounds in North America, and the model domain was the largest at this resolution in the world to date. Using paired model simulations that were run with vehicle emissions turned on and off (while all other emissions were left on), we estimated the absolute and relative contributions of motor vehicles to ambient pollutant concentrations. Our results provide estimates of motor vehicle contributions that are realistic as a result of the inclusion of atmospheric processing, whereas assessing changes in benzene and PAH emissions alone would neglect effects caused by shifts in atmospheric oxidation and particle–gas partitioning. A secondary benefit of our scenario approach is in its utility in representing a fleet of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), whose adoption is being encouraged in a variety of jurisdictions. Our simulations predicted domain-average on-road vehicle contributions to benzene and PAH concentrations of 4 %–21 % and 14 %–24 % in the spring–summer and fall–winter periods, respectively, depending on the aromatic compound. Contributions to PAH concentrations up to 50 % were predicted for the Greater Toronto Area, and the domain maximum was simulated to be 91 %. Such contributions are substantially higher than those reported at the national level in Canadian emissions inventories, and they also differ from inventory estimates at the subnational scale in the US. Our model has been run at a finer spatial scale than reported in those inventories, and furthermore includes physico-chemical processing that alters pollutant concentrations after their release. The removal of on-road vehicle emissions generally led to decreases in benzene and PAH concentrations during both periods that were studied, though atmospheric processing (such as chemical reactions and changes to particle–gas partitioning) contributed to non-linear behaviour at some locations or times of year. Such results demonstrate the added value associated with regional air quality modelling relative to examinations of emissions inventories alone. We also found that removing on-road vehicle emissions reduced spring–summertime surface O3 volume mixing ratios and fall–wintertime PM10 concentrations each by ∼10 % in the model domain, providing further air quality benefits. Toxic equivalents contributed by vehicle emissions of PAHs were found to be substantial (20 %–60 % depending on location), and this finding is particularly relevant to the study of public health in the urban areas of our model domain where human population, ambient concentrations, and traffic volumes tend to be high.

INTRODUCTION Winter snow and ice can have a significant impact on our mobility, whether on foot or by car. Alongside plowing, arguably the greatest tool in combating snow and ice is salt. The most commonly used salt for winter maintenance is Sodium Chloride (NaCl), the same salt used in food and water softeners, is applied to roads, sidewalks, and parking lots as it is an effective deicer when temperatures are between 0°C and −12°C. Studies have shown that deicing with salt reduces accidents by 88% and injuries by 85% (Salt Institute 2017). The effectiveness of road salt, as well as its relative affordability, means that as much as four million tonnes may be applied annually in Canada for deicing (Environment Canada 2012). However, while salt is relatively inexpensive to purchase, there are a number of external costs that are becoming increasingly apparent. These include corrosion of vehicles and infrastructure like concrete, bridges, and water mains; damage and staining to the interior and exterior of buildings; impacts to roadside vegetation and soils; and the contamination of fresh water. In fact, the environmental impacts are such that it prompted Environment Canada to propose that winter salt be considered a toxic substance primarily due to the quantity that is applied annually (Environment Canada 2001). The Lake Simcoe watershed, approximately 3,400km2 in size, is situated just 20km north of Toronto, Ontario, with the southern portion of the watershed being considered part of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), the most populous metropolitan area in Canada. As part of the GTA, the Lake Simcoe watershed has experienced and continues to experience considerable growth, and with this growth comes an increase in the amount of impervious surfaces requiring winter salting. Indeed, chloride has been showing a strong increasing trend in the urban creeks and in Lake Simcoe itself over the last 30 years. Even rural creeks are showing an increasing trend, albeit not as severe, nor are the concentrations of chloride reaching the same levels (LSRCA 2015). The highest chloride level recorded in a Lake Simcoe tributary was 6,120mg/l in the winter of 2013. Chloride guidelines for the protection of aquatic ecosystems utilize a guideline of 120mg/L for chronic exposure and 640mg/L for acute exposure (CCME 2011). While the high value recorded in the Lake Simcoe tributary greatly exceeds these guidelines, it is still drastically lower than values being recorded in larger, intensively urbanized catchments such as Cooksville Creek in Mississauga, Ontario, which sees concentrations in excess of 20,000 mg/L, the concentration of sea water, nearly every winter (Credit Valley Conservation personal comm). Similarly, in July of 2011 a small population of Atlantic blue crabs, a marine species, was found surviving in Mimico Creek in Toronto (Toronto Star: May 26, 2012). That a marine species was able to survive in this fresh water creek in summer demonstrates that the impacts of winter salt are not just limited to winter but are impacting shallow groundwater and thus summer baseflow, maintaining high chloride concentrations year round. The same is being seen in some urban creeks in the Lake Simcoe watershed, with summer baseflow concentrations exceeding the chronic guideline and trending upwards (LSRCA unpublished). While not yet as extreme as rivers in the more densely urbanized parts of the GTA, these examples foreshadow what is in store for Lake Simcoe rivers if current winter salt practices continue along with the projected urban growth. During the winter of 2012 an estimated 99,300 tonnes of salt was applied in the Lake Simcoe watershed, an amount that equals nearly 250kg of salt per capita, or ~3 times the average person's body weight in salt. This estimate was generated through a survey of local road agencies along with the total area of commercial/institutional parking lots within the watershed. The exercise served to highlight a knowledge gap around application practices and rates in commercial/institutional parking lots. The majority of road agencies were found to record annual volumes, application dates and rates whereas literature values range from 10–40% of the salt applied in a catchment come from commercial/institutional parking lots (Perera et al, 2009; Trowbridge et al, 2010; Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority, 2015), and a survey of winter maintenance contractors cite an average value of approximately 58g/m2/application (Fu et al, 2013) ( Figure 1 ). [Figure: see text] While these values were used in the estimation as they were the best available, observational data suggested these may be on the conservative side ( Figure 2 ). [Figure: see text] Therefore, monitoring of a 14 ha commercial lot was undertaken for the winters of 2014/15, 2015/16, and 2016/17 to better quantify the amount of salt coming from this type of land use. The winters of 2014/15 and 2016/17 saw similar applications of 1,067 and 1,010 tonnes applied respectively, while the mild winter of 2015/16 saw 556 tonnes applied. While the amounts varied somewhat each winter, the impacts downstream were consistent. Maximum concentrations recorded in the melt water reached 3.5 to 4 times the salt concentration of sea water every winter, equating to chloride concentrations of 70,000mg/L to 85,000mg/L; two orders of magnitude above the water quality guideline. As with most parking lots constructed in the last two decades, the runoff from this parking lot is captured in a stormwater pond prior to entering the receiving watercourse. Interestingly, the winter salt also caused persistent chemical stratification in the permanent pool of the pond. The pond was monitored with continuous monitors for the ice free period of 2015 and 2016 (April to December) during which the bottom water chloride concentration remained distinct from the surface chloride concentration, indicating stratification ( Figure 3 ). This has two significant implications; first of which is that this pond, and therefore many other ponds like it, may not be functioning as designed which is leading to diminished performance (McEnroe 2012, Marsalek 2003). Second is that ponds are acting as salt reservoirs, slowly releasing salt year round and contributing to river chloride concentrations that continually exceed the chronic exposure guideline and thereby exposing aquatic life to harmful concentrations during sensitive life cycle stages. [Figure: see text] To determine the extent to which the catchment land use type impacts stormwater ponds, chemical profiles were measured on three ponds in February 2017. The catchments included the 24.6 ha commercial catchment with 14 ha of salt application surface, an institutional catchment (14.3 ha) with 6 ha of salt application area that includes parking lots and roads, and a 16.4 ha residential catchment with 3 ha of salt application area comprised of tertiary municipal roads. Interestingly, all three ponds showed chemical stratification, with the severity of the stratification and highest chloride concentrations relating to the amount of salt application area in the catchment. The residential pond yielded a maximum chloride concentration of 3,115mg/L in the bottom waters, the institutional yielded 16,144mg/L, and the commercial yielded 25,530 mg/L with chloride concentrations in the bottom 0.5m of the pond exceeding that of sea water. The maximum chloride concentration recorded in the receiving watercourse downstream of the commercial lot was measured at 5,406 mg/L, well in excess of the acute guideline of 640 mg/L. These results highlight that commercial parking lots are not only receiving a significant volume of salt but are also having the most dramatic impacts on receiving stormwater infrastructure and watercourses.

Climate change induced sea-level rise (SLR) is on its increase globally. Regionally the lowlands of China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and islands of the Malaysian, Indonesian and Philippine archipelagos are among the world’s most threatened regions. Sea-level rise has major impacts on the ecosystems and society. It threatens coastal populations, economic activities, and fragile ecosystems as mangroves, coastal salt-marches and wetlands. This paper provides a summary of the current state of knowledge of sea level-rise and its effects on both human and natural ecosystems. The focus is on coastal urban areas and low lying deltas in South-East Asia and Vietnam, as one of the most threatened areas in the world. About 3 mm per year reflects the growing consensus on the average SLR worldwide. The trend speeds up during recent decades. The figures are subject to local, temporal and methodological variation. In Vietnam the average values of 3.3 mm per year during the 1993-2014 period are above the worldwide average. Although a basic conceptual understanding exists that the increasing global frequency of the strongest tropical cyclones is related with the increasing temperature and SLR, this relationship is insufficiently understood. Moreover the precise, complex environmental, economic, social, and health impacts are currently unclear. SLR, storms and changing precipitation patterns increase flood risks, in particular in urban areas. Part of the current scientific debate is on how urban agglomeration can be made more resilient to flood risks. Where originally mainly technical interventions dominated this discussion, it becomes increasingly clear that proactive special planning, flood defense, flood risk mitigation, flood preparation, and flood recovery are important, but costly instruments. Next to the main focus on SLR and its effects on resilience, the paper reviews main SLR associated impacts: Floods and inundation, salinization, shoreline change, and effects on mangroves and wetlands. The hazards of SLR related floods increase fastest in urban areas. This is related with both the increasing surface major cities are expected to occupy during the decades to come and the increasing coastal population. In particular Asia and its megacities in the southern part of the continent are increasingly at risk. The discussion points to complexity, inter-disciplinarity, and the related uncertainty, as core characteristics. An integrated combination of mitigation, adaptation and resilience measures is currently considered as the most indicated way to resist SLR today and in the near future.References Aerts J.C.J.H., Hassan A., Savenije H.H.G., Khan M.F., 2000. Using GIS tools and rapid assessment techniques for determining salt intrusion: Stream a river basin management instrument. 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Abstract In recent months, more studies are emerging regarding how various nations and regions fared during the initial two years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Canada is cited as an example of a country that had performed reasonably well versus other countries with comparable infrastructures and health care systems (Razek et al., 2022). The reason is largely attributed to a combination of several public health measures coupled with widespread vaccination uptake, as a result of a country-wide vaccination campaign. This paper is based on a keynote talk given at the Autumn 2021 CJRES Annual Conference, by Dr. Isaac I. Bogoch. Dr Bogoch is an Associate Professor in the Department of Medicine at the University of Toronto, and an Infectious Diseases Consultant in the Division of Infectious Diseases at the Toronto General Hospital. Dr. Bogoch was a member of Ontario’s Vaccine Distribution Taskforce, which helped guide vaccine policy during the initial rollout of COVID-19 vaccines between December 2020 through August 2021. Dr. Bogoch explains the unique vaccine policy in the Province of Ontario and in particular the social innovation around prioritising the most vulnerable and disadvantaged neighbourhoods first, thus leading to an important intra-regional social policy view of vaccine efforts on the path beyond the ‘emergency phase’ of the COVID-19 pandemic. What is clearly obvious from his presentation is the heightened role of urban geography tools and techniques and intra-regional policy in vaccine equity efforts. Policy lessons learned in Ontario may help us sort out future urban, social, economic, epidemiologic and public health challenges and their sometimes-complex intersections in regions, economy and society. The following is an edited transcript from Dr. Bogoch’s talk.

Urbanization is considered as one of the main factors affecting global change. The Halton Region as part of the Great Toronto Area (GTA), is regarded as one of the fastest growing regions in Canada, generating 20% of national GDP. It is also one of the most desirable places for living and thriving business. This research attempts to assess the urban expansion in the Halton Region, Ontario, Canada from 1989 to 2019 using satellite images, analysis approaches and landscape metrics. Multi-temporal Landsat images, and the supervised learning algorithms in GIS software were used to explore the dynamic changes, and to classify the urban and non-urban areas. The temporal urban expansion in the Halton Region experienced a dramatic rise, and mainly occurred from the centre of the area. The analysis of landscape metrics based on different methods, including Land Use in Central Indiana (LUCI) model, Vegetation-Impervious Surface-soil (V-I-S) model, and the census data of Canada was carried out to understand the transition mode of the urbanization in the Halton Region. Also, the population growth in the centre of the Halton Region was considered as one of driven forces affecting urban expansion. The results showed that most of the landscape metrics rose between 1989 and 2019, indicating leapfrog pattern of urbanization occurred over the entire period. The contribution of this research is to evaluate the urbanization in the Halton Region, and give the city managers a clear mind to make appropriate decisions in further urban planning.

Off-peak-hour delivery (OPHD) has the potential to reduce congestion in busy urban areas and at the same time improve the efficiency of logistics providers, shippers, and receivers. There has been growing interest in OPHD in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA), an important freight hub in Canada. The Government of Ontario is considering permanently relaxing noise by-laws to promote OPHD throughout the province. The purpose of this study is to provide quantitative assessments of the impacts of region-wide adoption of OPHD for the GTHA. A recently developed commercial vehicle (CV) model for the GTHA is presented in the paper. Various OPHD scenarios have been tested with the CV model. The impacts of induced passenger demand have also been demonstrated. Modeling outcomes indicate that OPHD could result in 5,530 vehicle-hours saved in a day after induced demand is accounted for. Light truck carriers would benefit the most by shifting to off-peak hours and prioritizing Toronto and Peel Region customers would yield the highest travel time savings during the off-peak hours.

IntroductionGeographic disparities in health indicators, such as premature mortality, may reveal area-level weaknesses in health system performance. Monitoring geographic trends can therefore have powerful implications for system evaluation and planning. However, attempts to understand patterns of population health can be complicated by underlying regional differences in demographics and behaviours. Objectives and ApproachThis study aimed to identify regional disparities in premature mortality (defined as death before age 75), and to investigate how fully these disparities can be explained by population-level characteristics. Ontario’s 76 administrative Local Health Integration Network (LHIN) sub-regions, which vary in geographic and population size, were analyzed using linked population-level data from the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences and Cancer Care Ontario. Spatially structured, sex-stratified Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for each LHIN sub-region in the 2011-2015 period. Models were adjusted for key population-level demographic and behavioural risk factors. ResultsLarge disparities in premature mortality presented at the sub-region level in males and females. Low premature mortality clustered around large, urban population centers in Ottawa and Toronto. Premature mortality was comparatively higher throughout the rest of the province, particularly in northern and southeast Ontario. Higher prevalence of material deprivation, overweight and obesity, sedentary behaviour, and smoking were all significantly (α=0.05) associated with elevated premature mortality risk, while increased alcohol consumption and immigrant population were associated with decreased risk. Adjusting for model covariates reduced variance of sub-region SMR estimates by 87% in males and 89% in females. Population-level characteristics thus explain a large proportion of geographic inequality in premature mortality. However, residual spatial variation suggests that systematic regional differences in premature mortality extend beyond population-level traits. Conclusion/Implications This study represents a novel application of small-area analytic techniques to Ontario mortality data, made possible by comprehensive linkage of vital statistics. The findings highlight the importance of population composition to geographic disparities in health. Future work should investigate the influence of system-level factors in areas with elevated premature mortality.