Academic literature on the topic 'Upward support'

This study is based on the results of a survey research conducted by JobStreet Indonesia on its members, which has surprisingly found that more than 70% of employees lack clarity on the goals of their career. Drawing from the social exchange theory, employees tend to show positive work attitudes when they perceive that their organization paid attention to them. The objective of this study is to assess how significant the influence of Perceived Organizational Support (POS) is on career satisfaction, organizational commitment, and turnover intention. Besides organizational perspective, as stated by the social comparison theory, the way individuals perform both upward and downward comparisons could be expected to affect career satisfaction. Also, this research uses career commitment as a moderator variable that can strengthen or weaken the influence among variables, which is the employee’s commitment towards their organization and competitiveness within their respective work group. The research has found some interesting results. It was shown that there is no significant relationship between POS and career satisfaction, career satisfaction and turnover intention, organizational support and turnover intention, and both upward and downward social comparison and turnover intention. The moderating effects of career commitment were not proven. In comparison, all of the moderating effects of a competitive work group were proven together with the relationship between upward social comparison and turnover intention.

As health challenging rural elderly in an aging population, more attention is being paid on impact of family intergenerational support on the health of the elderly. This paper investigates the effects of children’s intergenerational economic support and non-economic support on physical, mental, and functional health of rural elderly in China in the mean while. This paper applies the 2014 Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS), in particular, applying exploratory factor analysis to ascertain latent variables and Structural Equation Model (SEM), and analyzes the impacts of "Upward" intergenerational support on health of rural elderly. As resulted, after controlling the socioeconomic status of the rural elderly, the family “upward” intergenerational support influences the elderly’s physical health at a percentage of 11.7%, mental health 29.8%, and physiological function 12.6%. Moreover, "Upward" economic support has a positive effect on physiological function (P<0.05). "Upward" non-economic support has negative effects on physiological function and mental health (P<0.05), while it has a positive effect on physical health. In addition, economically independent rural elderly are more likely to benefit from the health of "upward" intergenerational support, especially mental health. In particular, those results are robust. "Upward" intergenerational support plays an important role for the health of rural elderly. For the rural elderly of economic independence, to improve the quality of care and spiritual support, it is important to solve the health problems. In addition, it is necessary to build a comprehensive old-age security and support system for family, community, and society jointly to improve the health of the rural elderly.

How do individuals achieve upward mobility in education despite the well‐documented mechanisms that foster reproduction of inequalities? This question presents a fundamental puzzle for social science researchers and has generated an increasing body of research. The present article tackles the puzzle using a life course and personal network lens. Studying educational trajectories in Germany of students whose parents have low educational degrees, it asks: What paths did students take through the education system, what personal network factors were important for their educational attainment, and how did these factors change over students’ life courses? In contrast to most studies that zoom in on a specific transition or time period, the article uses data from 36 retrospective in‐depth interviews that allow a sweeping view of respondents’ educational careers. Thanks to a systematic case selection scheme, the data also enables comparisons between students who became upwardly mobile and those who replicated their parents’ low educational degrees. Findings suggest four types of trajectories: direct upward mobility, indirect upward mobility, direct non‐mobility, and indirect non‐mobility. I discuss four personal network factors that seem to drive these trajectories: support with academic efforts, encouragement, support with solving problems, and role models. Upwardly mobile students showed combinations of two or more of these four factors that established higher education as the students’ goal, and provided them with tools and support to reach that goal. With these findings, the article contributes to literature on inclusion in education, social inequality and mobility, personal networks, and the life course.

Many studies have been conducted to understand the existence of workplace bullying in subordinate-supervisor relationship in relation with leadership. However, not many studies have focused on the study of bullying caused by subordinates to the managers (upward bullying) and which behavior of the leader or subordinates leads to this bullying. Upward bullying includes bullying behaviors such as threats or malicious accusations shown by subordinates to their supervisor and destructive leadership includes behavior that undermines motivation or work-related satisfaction of subordinates. The purpose of this study is to explore a significant relationship between subordinate perceptions of destructive leadership and upward bullying. A questionnaire of scales consisting of 34 items was used where upward bullying was found out by using Negative Acts Questionnaire Revised (NAQ-R) scale and to measure destructive leadership, rater form of Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire (MLQ) was used. One hundred and ninety-three software engineers who are employed in digital (IT) firms have completed an on-line questionnaire of their perceptions of the leadership style and behavior of their immediate supervisor, and the frequency with which they are engaged in specific bullying behaviours targeting their supervisor. The results of the study helped to explore the lacked evidences of upwards bullying and to know the subordinates’ perceptions due to destructive leadership at work environment. The findings revealed that subordinates’ perceptions of destructive supervisory leadership were moderately correlated with an increased incidence of upward bullying. This paper offers support for prevalence of upwards bullying which can be a response to destructive leadership, and as this research is done with a specific sector, it further enhances need of future researches. Few recommendations like educating employees about workplace behaviours at organisations are discussed. Practical implications to be taken by the managers such as self-assessment of managers to improve leadership skills are discussed.

Recently, mobility support has become an important requirement in various Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs). Low-power and Lossy Networks (LLNs) are a special type of WSNs that tolerate a certain degree of packet loss. However, due to the strict resource constraints in the computation, energy, and memory of LLNs, most routing protocols only support static network topologies. Data collection and data dissemination are two basic traffic modes in LLNs. Unlike data collection, data dissemination is less investigated in LLNs. There are two sorts of data-dissemination methods: point-to-multipoint and point-to-point. In this paper, we focus on the point-to-point method, which requires the source node to build routes to reach the destination node. We propose an adaptive routing protocol that integrates together point-to-point traffic and data-collection traffic, and supports highly mobile scenarios. This protocol quickly reacts to the movement of nodes to make faster decisions for the next-hop selection in data collection and dynamically build routes for point-to-point traffic. Results obtained through simulation show that our work outperforms two generic ad hoc routing protocols AODV and flooding on different performance metrics. Results also show the efficiency of our work in highly mobile scenarios with multiple traffic patterns.

Social psychological studies have documented various biases and misperceptions held by helpers that can seriously undermine the therapeutic value of client oriented interventions. In the context of support given to victims of crime and of traffic accidents the present study focused on one bias in particular, namely the support worker' upward bias. This misperception refers to an incorrect expectation on the part of support workers — volunteers working for the Netherlands Victim Support (NVS) in this study — regarding the direction of victims' social comparison processes: they tended to expect victims to engage in upward comparisons (on a comparison-dimension the victim is saying ‘I'm worse off’ than the comparison-target), while these victims actually engaged in downward comparison processes (‘I'm better off’). Downward sensitivity constitutes the opposite of this bias, and thus refers to the correct expectation that victims tend to engage in downward comparisons. Analyses revealed a highly prevalent ‘upward bias’ and a fundamental mislocation-error among victim support workers, with regard to both types of clients. The upward bias emerged consistently across a series of possible comparison-dimensions, related to the Symptom Checklist 90 (SCL 90). Moreover our findings suggested a rather specific risk profile. Some workers appeared to be more at risk of engaging in upward biases, workers exhibiting a more pessimistic motivation for participating in victim support, and in workers experiencing burnout. Downward sensitivity moreover appeared to be associated with more beneficial (perceived as strain-free) client-helper-interactions. Some applied implications for victim support organisations, inter alia in terms of the huge need for downward sensitivity training and the necessity of developing worker' selection standards, and of designing internal quality-control policies, are discussed. More generally, victim support organisations should counteract the formation of overly pessimistic outlooks on clients and their psychological problems. An overly pessimistic perspective might facilitate the opposite of what support is supposed to stand for, namely a continuation of ‘victim status’ instead of ‘de-victimization’.

Objective: This study aimed to test whether resilience mediates the association between self-rated health and life satisfaction and the moderated effect of upward intergenerational support among elderly migrants in China. Method: We used self-reported data collected from 654 elderly migrants in Nanjing. The regression analysis using bootstrapping methods was conducted to explore the mediating and moderating effects. Results: Resilience mediated the relationship between self-rated health and life satisfaction among elderly migrants in China. The moderated mediation analysis indicated that the upward intergenerational support moderated the path between self-rated health and resilience. Specifically, compared with those with a low level of emotional support, the self-rated health of elderly migrants with a high level of emotional support has a stronger effect on resilience. Moreover, the self-rated health of elderly migrants with a low level of financial support has a stronger effect on resilience than those with a higher level of financial support. Conclusion: Resilience could partially mediate the effect of self-rated health on life satisfaction among elderly migrants in China, and upward intergenerational support moderated the indirect relationship between self-rated health and life satisfaction via resilience.

Hong Kong is facing an ageing population and increased life expectancy. However, Hong Kong does not have a universal pension system and the income security of older people is therefore increasingly discussed. The main income sources of older people are earnings from employment and from savings and investments, as well as government welfare, and financial support from their families. However, income from employment, savings and investments are limited. Also, social policy in Hong Kong follows the residual model that it is the duty of a family to provide support to their family members, and government financial support plays a minor role. In other words, since the structure of the population is changing and limited support from other income sources, it is important to take a closer look at upward financial support. The major objective of this study is to examine which model of motivation best explains upward financial transfer in the Hong Kong context. Three theories of motivation of intergenerational support are selected to explore which model(s) could be suitable for use in Hong Kong. These are the Power and Bargaining Model, the Mutual Aid Model and the Altruism Model. Cross-sectional data was collected from surveys of 200 older people in elderly centers. Respondents were asked whether they received financial support from their children or not. The primary aim was to discover the dominant motivation for upward financial support. The dominant model was found to be the Altruism Model. The Altruism Model is based on parents’ economic needs. In other words, this study reveals that supporting parents’ needs is a crucial motivation for intergenerational financial support in HK. Meanwhile, the findings also reveal that having more children, living together with children, having a closer relationship with children, and children with higher education are significantly associated with upward financial support. These findings have valuable implications. The findings enrich our theoretical understanding of the motivation of upward financial support in Hong Kong. Also, the findings contribute some suggestions for elderly social policy making.
published_or_final_version
Social Work and Social Administration
Master
Master of Philosophy

碩士
國立臺北大學
社會學系
105
Based on the data analysis from the Panel Study of Family Dynamics (PSFD), this study examines the correlation between “the birth order of young adults in Taiwan” and “their upward monetary support” by using data from both parents and children in the same family. These young adults were born after 1911, and have been over 25 during 2010 to 2012. Four conclusions are then made in this study: (1) there are under 10% of the young adults in Taiwan who receive support from their parents, but there are over 85% of the young adults give monetary support to their parents. (2) The firstborns significantly give more than their siblings. (3) The young adults’ support were related to the sibling structure in the family; i. e., the more sibling they have, the fewer they support. (4) Comparing to filial piety or traditional family value, good relationship between children and parents in more important to how young adults’ monetary support to their parents.

This chapter sets out why an SIA is of timely and crucial importance for European member states to meet the challenges of increased poverty and social exclusion, demographic ageing and increasingly knowledge-based societies, as well as to deliver on the EU’s objective of upward social convergence. The chapter outlines the key elements of an SIA that the European Commission has sought to take forward in its policy guidance. The Commission’s efforts to support reforms in this direction are discussed, ranging from the mobilization of governance instruments and funds, to financial support for research, innovation, and capacity building, and the development of assessment frameworks in support of evidence-based policy reform. Finally, the chapter explores some potential avenues for further work, at both EU and country level, to support and monitor the implementation of policy reforms.

Mohammed, a 30-year-old Pakistani farmer with a primary school education, paid $4,000 to get a construction job in Saudi Arabia that paid $400 a month. Mohammed did not have the $4,000 to buy a work visa and pay agent fees and transportation costs, so he mortgaged his land, hoping to repay the loan with some of the $9,600 he expected to earn in Saudi Arabia over two years. With uncertain Pakistani earnings of $100 a month and a wife and four children to support, working abroad seemed the fastest way to achieve upward mobility at home, even if half of the expected extra income from working abroad went to recruiters and other components of the migration infrastructure....

This chapter argues that the growing obsession of sportswriters in recent decades with so-called “blue-collar” fan bases and “blue-collar” professional athletes has abetted the larger project of neoliberalism by masking and justifying economic inequality in cities like Chicago. The ongoing insistence of Chicago’s sports pages that local teams enjoy the support of “blue-collar” fan bases erases successful efforts by teams to price out the working-class by increasingly catering to affluent fans on the winning side of the upward redistribution of wealth. Moreover, the relatively recent trend of local journalists labeling Chicago’s professional, millionaire athletes as “blue-collar” encapsulates the broader trend within the mainstream media of discussing class as a matter of personal style rather than a matter of material circumstance.

This article examines the culture of poverty thesis, focusing on its many lives, deaths, and reincarnations. It first considers the intellectual history of the culture of poverty thesis before discussing how the argument has been interspersed throughout U.S. history and applied to various groups. It then considers the argument’s scholarly reproduction, noting how it is underlain by a binary whereby segments of the poor, racial minorities, and immigrants are positioned as having a deviant, morally suspect culture that undermines their potential upward mobility, whereas white middle- and upper-class Americans are positioned as having a normal, morally upstanding culture that secures their class position. The article also describes four routine scholarly practices that engender a specter of support for the culture of poverty thesis. Finally, it argues that the culture of poverty should either be put to rest or allowed to live based on its own merits, and suggests ways to end its unintentional resurrection.

Many deaf and hard-of-hearing (DHH) high school students graduate with reading abilities that leave them poorly prepared for postsecondary settings. In college, reading ability is an important predictor of graduation rates and level of degree attained, and the postsecondary degree a DHH student completes will affect his or her future earnings, upward mobility, and job satisfaction. Considering how important reading is to a DHH student’s future, this chapter will review the evidence base surrounding the foundational building block of reading, decoding. Researchers suggest that decoding instruction for adolescents should occur not only during language arts classes but also in the content areas (i.e., math, science, and social studies). This chapter reviews successful decoding strategies and suggests decoding strategies that teachers can use to support adolescents in various content-area disciplines. The authors discuss how teachers and parents can make strategic decisions when implementing decoding interventions that have no available evidence base.

Since the 1970s, a “Polynesian Pipeline” has brought football players from American Sāmoa to Hawaii and the mainland United States to play at the collegiate and professional levels. In Gridiron Capital Lisa Uperesa charts the cultural and social dynamics that have made football so central to Samoan communities. For Samoan athletes, football is not just an opportunity for upward mobility; it is a way to contribute to, support, and represent their family, village, and nation. Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork, archival research, and media analysis, Uperesa shows how the Samoan ascendancy in football is underpinned by the legacies of US empire and a set of imperial formations that mark Indigenous Pacific peoples as racialized subjects of US economic aid and development. Samoan players succeed by becoming entrepreneurs: building and commodifying their bodies and brands to enhance their football stock and market value. Uperesa offers insights into the social and physical costs of pursuing a football career, the structures that compel Pacific Islander youth toward athletic labor, and the possibilities for safeguarding their health and wellbeing in the future. Duke University Press Scholars of Color First Book Award recipient

Making Education Work for the Poor identifies wealth inequality as the gravest threat to the endangered American Dream. Though studies have clearly illustrated that education is the primary path to upward mobility, today, educational outcomes are more directly determined by wealth than innate ability and exerted effort. This accounting directly contradicts Americans' understanding of the promise the American Dream is supposed to offer: a level playing field and a path towards a more profitable future. In this book, the authors share their own stories of their journeys through the unequal U.S. education system. One started from relative privilege and had her way to prosperity paved and her individual efforts augmented by institutional and structural support. The other grew up in poverty and had to fight against currents to complete higher education, only to find his ability to profit from that degree compromised by student debt. To directly counter wealth inequality and make education the 'great equalizer' that Americans believe it to be, this book calls for a revolution in financial aid policy, from debt dependence to asset empowerment. The book examines the evidence base supporting Children's Savings Accounts, including CSAs' demonstrated potential to improve children's outcomes all along the 'opportunity pipeline': early education, school achievement, college access and completion, and post-college financial health. It then outlines a policy that builds on CSAs to incorporate a sizable, progressive wealth transfer. This new policy, Opportunity Investment Accounts, is framed as the cornerstone of the wealth-building agenda the nation needs in order to salvage the American Dream. Written by leading CSA researchers, the book includes overviews of the major children's savings legislation proposed in Congress and the key features of prominent CSA programs in operation around the country today, as well as new qualitative and quantitative CSA research. The book ultimately presents a critical development of the theories that, together, explain how universal, progressive, asset-based education financing could make education work equitably for all American children.

This chapter looks at how storytelling was used by mainstream immigrant rights groups to produce an aspiring class of upwardly mobile and self-reliant undocumented youth while defusing broader migrant rights activism. In the campaign for legalization through a DREAM Act, the undocumented students known as Dreamers told their stories to the legislature and the media. The students were given scripts to follow that emphasized their achievements, assimilation into American society, and rejection of their home countries. In the lead-up to the 2008 national election and the subsequent push for Comprehensive Immigration Reform (CIR), groups of young people were mobilized in mass storytelling trainings across the country to support the electoral and legislative agenda of mainstream organizations. Eventually, many young people rebelled against this orchestration and sought to take control over their own representations. Some even began to move away from storytelling as a mode of political engagement altogether.

The magnitude, nature, causes, and consequences of population movements between rural and urban sectors of developing countries are examined. The prior literature is reviewed and is found to be limited in key dimensions. Evidence presented from a new database encompasses nationally representative data on seventy-five developing countries. Several measures of migration propensities are derived for the separate countries. The situation in each country is documented, both in historical context and following the time of enumeration. Rural-urban migrants enjoy major gains; those who do not move forego substantial, potential gains. Barriers to migrating are very real for disadvantaged groups. Migration among ethnolinguistic communities is a pervasive theme; the context in which each group lives is detailed. Upward mobility in incomes in towns is affirmed, and the departure of adults from rural homes raises the living standards of the family left behind, but consequent separation of married couples is endemic to particular societies. Reclassification of rural areas as urban is shown to be more important than net rural-urban moves in incremental urbanization and rural-urban moves are less permanent than normally portrayed. A contention of symmetry between rural-urban and urban-rural migration propensities is rejected, and indications that these twin movements result in sorting of labor by skills are not supported. Moreover, step and onward migration are not as common as popularly claimed. Previously neglected topics studied include autonomous migration by women, child migration, and networks at origin. Policies to limit rural-urban migration are questioned, and as climate change continues, planning for managed urban growth is vital.

AbstractThis chapter considers the role of positive emotions in religion/spirituality. We begin by reviewing key conceptual frameworks of positive emotions (e.g., Broaden-and-Build Theory of Positive Emotions) while focusing on self-transcendent positive emotions such as awe, gratitude, love, and compassion. We then review scientific research on the bidirectional relationship between religion/spirituality and positive emotions. First, we examine various pathways through which religion/spirituality promotes the experience of positive emotions. For example, research has shown that religion/spirituality is related to specific valued emotions and particular emotion-regulation strategies. In addition, religious/spiritual (R/S) practices provide the opportunity to experience positive emotions, partly through emotional embodiment. Second, we propose four effects of positive emotions related to religion/spirituality. Positive emotions support R/S beliefs, and when they are felt during R/S practices, they function as promoters of well-being, prosocial intentions and behaviors, and continued R/S practices (the Upward Spiral Theory of Sustained Religious Practice). We close by offering some applications of these findings for mental health practitioners, religious leaders, and religiously/spiritually oriented people.

AbstractThe next approach to research on water was to measure the small amount of water actually moving within a plant. The best method is to utilize radioisotope (RI)-labeled water and measure the radiation from outside of the plant. However, it is rather difficult to label water, since there are only limited kinds of RI for tracing water.When utilizing 18F to trace water movement, another fundamental question to consider was the features that characterize drought-tolerant and drought-sensitive plants. It is natural to suppose that drought-tolerant plants have strong water absorption; therefore, by analyzing the water absorption mechanism of tolerant plants and by introducing this function to sensitive plants, it might be possible to make the sensitive plants more tolerant.However, when water uptake was studied in naturally developed drought-tolerant and drought-sensitive cowpea, selected from 2000 cowpea plants grown in the field of Africa, the result was unexpected. Under normal conditions, the amount of water absorbed by the drought-tolerant strain was much lower than that absorbed by the sensitive strain, as if showing the low capability of water absorption. When a drought condition was introduced, the tolerant strain began to absorb much more water than usual, whereas the sensitive strain could not absorb as much water as before. This result provided us with an important lesson. Analyzing the mechanism of drought tolerance only by comparing the water absorption of tolerant and sensitive plants might not readily reveal the reason for drought tolerance. The features of the naturally produced plants showed us different mechanisms that might not match our expectations developed in the laboratory.Next, we performed water measurements using 15O-labeled water, which has an extremely short half-life of 2 minutes. Here, we found another astonishing result, which was “water circulation” in the plant internode. A tremendous amount of water was always leaking from xylem cells, which had been regarded as a mere pipe to transfer water from the root to the aboveground parts. In another subsequent study, it was shown that the water flowing out from the xylem was pushing out the water already present in the stem and then returning to the xylem again to move upward. The water velocity in the internode was kept constant, and through simulation, it took less than 20 minutes to exchange the water already present in the stem with newly absorbed water.

In a world where skilling, upskilling, reskilling, and career shifting are becoming the norm, and where lifelong learning is a requirement, models of higher education designed to best support the needs of learners and the workforce remain relatively limited. In the chapter, the authors discuss strategies used by Excelsior University's School of Graduate Studies to respond with agility to the needs of students and employers, including structures and processes used to better connect with employers and their needs. They highlight the development of high-quality learning outcomes, the creation of industry-aligned curricular and co-curricular learning experiences, and the development of stackable credentials to demonstrate how they provide students with flexible on-and-off ramps to learning and skill development.

This article identifies the factors underlying the massive participation in the Umbrella Movement. From a mass values approach, support for democracy and trust that the Chinese government in upholding its promises are found to be statistically significant in explaining the massive support for the Umbrella Movement. From a performance perspective, the perceived performance of the HKSAR government in handling China-Hong Kong tensions, the perceived economic performance and upward social mobility of Hong Kong, have also shaped the support of the movement. The findings suggest the enormous challenge that faces Beijing to address the younger generation’s aspirations of democracy and greater propensity to join civil disobedience movements in the future.

Chapter 6 outlines the final session of Brief Behavioral Therapy (BBT), which reviews everything youth have accomplished in BBT, reviews the main ideas covered in BBT, and plans out ways to manage stress in the future. Specifically, youth will review skills they learned in BBT for coping with stress and daily hassles, plan long-term goals, establish healthy habits and social support, think about upcoming big changes, and discuss a plan in the event that difficulties arise in the future. The handouts and worksheets in this chapter are designed to help ensure that youth end BBT with the understanding that the most helpful way to respond to stress is to face the things that are difficult and that they can use the skills they’ve learned to tolerate negative feelings, solve problems, and make plans for action that involve taking small steps toward dealing with stress.

The number of college students with autism/ASD is on a steep upward trajectory. These students often face challenges related to age-appropriate adaptive skills, independent living, and co-occurring mental health problems, which can make success in college elusive. Unfortunately, the availability of research-supported services and interventions to support these students is limited. This chapter describes seven different programs developed to support postsecondary students with autism/ASD, summarizes the research supporting their use, and suggests future directions in this area. These programs are designed to either help students transition into postsecondary education or to assist enrolled postsecondary students. The chapter also includes a discussion of commonalities between these programs (such as the frequent use of a “mentorship” method) as well as a case study.

The upward trend in online graduate degrees, the mobility of graduate students, and the increase in the number of dissertations completed at a distance from universities poses several challenges for faculty who supervise research virtually, students being mentored virtually, and institutions invested in the quality of doctoral education. At the same time, emerging communication technologies present new opportunities for mentoring approaches that build upon those used in traditional on-campus environments. Based on qualitative research with 29 graduates who completed their dissertations at a distance, this chapter presents a framework for the e-mentoring of research and dissertations that encompasses strategies and support at the institutional, mentor, small group, and mentee levels.

The state lottery in the eighteenth century was a striking success, both as a support to public finance and as a financial product. This chapter seeks to explain this success, but also examine who adventured in the lottery and with what motivations. Systematic data on purchase of tickets is sparse, but overall patterns are fairly clear, as is the extent to which lottery speculations fed off fantasies of easy and rapid enrichment and, for many, a consequent transformation in social circumstances and status. In this way, the success of the lottery can shed light on contemporary preoccupations with upward social mobility and the achievement of independence, as well as attitudes towards risk and economic gain.

The Jack-up rig market is very dynamic as it is sensitive to oil prices and drilling activities. An effective strategy must be defined to achieve a successful tender process. A market survey shall be sourced from potential bidders and credible research institutions to provide competitive cost estimation and mapped available qualified rigs. Commercial structure is another factor that must be specified clearly. Numbers of wells or long term contracts will attract more rigs to enter Indonesian water that can be achieved by collaborating with other operators. It was quite challenging to establish a rig contract at first stage of tender to cover 1 (one) year duration with an unattractive owner estimation that ended up with a failed tender. By having collaboration with the host authority, other operators and potential bidders, the new strategy to have a long term contract by increasing the number of wells and contract duration to 3 (three) years can be finalized efficiently. The enhanced commercial structure consisted of rate classification as per the Indonesian Oil, Gas and Geothermal Drilling Contractors Association, modification cost, facility support service, reimbursable cost, etc. which have attracted more bidders. Finally, the jack-up rig contract can be established and agreed within the market price. The cost saving to cover future drilling projects has resulted in a total saving of USD 9.7 Million

Deviations from the ideal shape of reflector panels for parabolic trough solar power plants have relevant impact on field efficiency and thus on the performance of the whole power plant. Analyzing the gravity-induced deformation of mirror shape for different mirror angles is relevant for performance calculation of solar parabolic trough collectors and identifying optimization potential of the mirror panels. Two mirror model versions (stiff and elastic supports) are evaluated in four angles: in horizontal laboratory angle (mirrors facing upward with mounting points horizontally aligned), and in 0°, 45° and 90° collector angle. The resulting slope maps are calculated in a separate post-processing. In order to evaluate the effect of gravity load on mirror shape, the deformed mirror in each evaluated angle is compared to the non-deformed mirror shape, and to the shapes in 0° (zenith) collector angle, respectively. The resulting slope deviation maps show the mirror deformation in different mirror angles. Stiffness of the mounting to the support structure has a relevant impact. Mirror deformation on elastic brackets (SDx up to 1.6 mrad) is much more pronounced than on an ideal stiff support structure (SDx up to 1.0 mrad).

In a previous work a compliant microplatform was proposed. The device is formed by the following elements: the actuators, a central moving platform and compliant joints. The actuators are three sets of compliant beams able to support upward deflections. The moving platform is an equilateral plate. Springs connect the free end of each set of actuators with each vertex of the central platform, in this way the motion of the actuators is transmitted to the moving platform. This configuration is specially appropriated for micromanufacturing since current techniques do not permit the fabrication of reliable rigid joints. Compliant joints increase the complexity of the motion of the central platform and few studies have been carried out. This paper focuses on the derivation of equations that relates the velocity of the moving platform with the velocity of the actuators.

After a period of several years of operation, steam generators can be affected by fouling and clogging. Fouling means that deposits of sludge accumulate on tubes or tube support plates (TSP). That results in a reduction of heat exchange capabilities and can be modelled by means of a fouling factor. Clogging is a reduction of flow free area due to an accumulation of sludge in the space between TSP and tubes. The increase of the clogging ratio results in an increase of the overall TSP pressure loss coefficient. The link between the clogging ratio and the overall TSP pressure loss coefficient is the most important aspect of our capability to accurately calculate the thermal-hydraulics of clogged steam generators. The aim of the paper is to detail the experimental approach chosen by EDF and AREVA NP to address the calculation uncertainties. The calculation method is classically based on the computation of a single-phase (liquid-only) pressure loss coefficient, which is multiplied by a two-phase flow factor. Both parameters are well documented and can be derived on the basis of state of the art methods such as IDEL’CIK diagrams and CHISHOLM formula. The experimental approach consists of a validation of the correlations by performing tests on a mock-up section with an upward flow throughout a vertical array of tubes. A mixture of water and vapour refrigerant R116 is used to represent two-phase flows. The tube bundle is composed of a 25 tubes array in a square arrangement. The overall height of the mock-up is 2 m. Eight test TSPs were manufactured, considering eight different clogging configurations: six plates with a typical clogging profile at six clogging ratios (0, 44%, 58%, 72%, 86%, 95%), and two plates with a clogging ratio of 72% associated with two different clogging profiles (large bending radius profile and rectangular profile). A series of tests were performed in 2009 in single-phase flow conditions. Two-phase flow tests with a mixture of liquid water and vapour refrigerant R116 will be performed in 2010. The paper illustrates the main results obtained during the single-phase tests performed in 2009.

Countries around the world have endured over a year of extreme uncertainty in the context of the COVID-19 crisis, and economies in the Caribbean have suffered more than most. But with the increasing availability of vaccines and prospects for a resumption of international travel, light is emerging at the end of the Pandemic tunnel. With this in mind, The Inter-American Development Bank Caribbean1 Departments most recent Quarterly Bulletin reviews the latest available information regarding the crisis impacts on citizens, their economies, and key factors that will determine the speed and depth of recovery. As also discussed in previous editions, prospects for tourism-dependent economies will depend heavily on vaccine penetration and border normalization in source countries particularly the United States and Western Europe, while commodity-intensive economies could benefit from upward revisions to global demand growth estimates. All countries in the region can do much to support a rapid recovery through forward-looking policies aimed at ensuring they are well positioned to take advantage of post-Pandemic preferences with respect to travel and tourism, services trade, and investment. Our latest report considers these issues, what may lie ahead, and how counties can best position themselves for a recovery in 2021 and beyond.

What makes some children succeed despite studying in failing education systems? Are these children exceptionally gifted, or do other psychological or sociological factors and family circumstances contribute to success? To address the learning crisis in state schools in developing countries, development agencies have primarily focused on identifying inputs that can improve state education provision. Yet, even from low-performing state schools, some children do manage to successfully complete primary and secondary education cycles, pursue higher education, and record upward social mobility, but we know very little about the factors that facilitate this success. This paper addresses this gap in the literature. Tracing life histories of successful alumni of state schools supported by CARE, an education foundation in Pakistan, this paper identifies children’s motivation to succeed as having a major impact on educational performance. However, for most this motivation is not a product of an innate desire to excel, it is a product of contextual factors: parental encouragement; an acute desire to make parents happy and to alleviate their sufferings; the company of friends, cousins, and peers who are keen on education and thus help to create an aspiring, competitive spirit; encouragement given by good teachers; and exposure to new possibilities and role models that raise aspirations by showing that what might appear to the child unachievable is in fact attainable. High motivation in turn builds commitment to work hard. Equally important, however, is the provision of financial support at critical points, especially when transitioning from secondary school to college and university. Without financial support, which could be in the form of scholarships, loans, or income from part-time work, at critical junctures, even highly motivated children in state schools cannot succeed. The paper thus argues that rather than being focused solely on education inputs, development agencies should also seek to explore and understand the factors that can motivate children in state schools to aim high and work hard to succeed.

What makes some children succeed despite studying in failing education systems? Are these children exceptionally gifted, or do other psychological or sociological factors and family circumstances contribute to success? To address the learning crisis in state schools in developing countries, development agencies have primarily focused on identifying inputs that can improve state education provision. Yet, even from low-performing state schools, some children do manage to successfully complete primary and secondary education cycles, pursue higher education, and record upward social mobility, but we know very little about the factors that facilitate this success. This paper addresses this gap in the literature. Tracing life histories of successful alumni of state schools supported by CARE, an education foundation in Pakistan, this paper identifies children’s motivation to succeed as having a major impact on educational performance. However, for most this motivation is not a product of an innate desire to excel, it is a product of contextual factors: parental encouragement; an acute desire to make parents happy and to alleviate their sufferings; the company of friends, cousins, and peers who are keen on education and thus help to create an aspiring, competitive spirit; encouragement given by good teachers; and exposure to new possibilities and role models that raise aspirations by showing that what might appear to the child unachievable is in fact attainable. High motivation in turn builds commitment to work hard. Equally important, however, is the provision of financial support at critical points, especially when transitioning from secondary school to college and university. Without financial support, which could be in the form of scholarships, loans, or income from part-time work, at critical junctures, even highly motivated children in state schools cannot succeed. The paper thus argues that rather than being focused solely on education inputs, development agencies should also seek to explore and understand the factors that can motivate children in state schools to aim high and work hard to succeed.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

“Sustainable prosperity” denotes an economy that generates stable and equitable growth for a large and growing middle class. From the 1940s into the 1970s, the United States appeared to be on a trajectory of sustainable prosperity, especially for white-male members of the U.S. labor force. Since the 1980s, however, an increasing proportion of the U.S labor force has experienced unstable employment and inequitable income, while growing numbers of the business firms upon which they rely for employment have generated anemic productivity growth. Stable and equitable growth requires innovative enterprise. The essence of innovative enterprise is investment in productive capabilities that can generate higher-quality, lower-cost goods and services than those previously available. The innovative enterprise tends to be a business firm—a unit of strategic control that, by selling products, must make profits over time to survive. In a modern society, however, business firms are not alone in making investments in the productive capabilities required to generate innovative goods and services. Household units and government agencies also make investments in productive capabilities upon which business firms rely for their own investment activities. When they work in a harmonious fashion, these three types of organizations—household units, government agencies, and business firms—constitute “the investment triad.” The Biden administration’s Build Back Better agenda to restore sustainable prosperity in the United States focuses on investment in productive capabilities by two of the three types of organizations in the triad: government agencies, implementing the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, and household units, implementing the yet-to-be-passed American Families Act. Absent, however, is a policy agenda to encourage and enable investment in innovation by business firms. This gaping lacuna is particularly problematic because many of the largest industrial corporations in the United States place a far higher priority on distributing the contents of the corporate treasury to shareholders in the form of cash dividends and stock buybacks for the sake of higher stock yields than on investing in the productive capabilities of their workforces for the sake of innovation. Based on analyzes of the “financialization” of major U.S. business corporations, I argue that, unless Build Back Better includes an effective policy agenda to encourage and enable corporate investment in innovation, the Biden administration’s program for attaining stable and equitable growth will fail. Drawing on the experience of the U.S. economy over the past seven decades, I summarize how the United States moved toward stable and equitable growth from the late 1940s through the 1970s under a “retain-and-reinvest” resource-allocation regime at major U.S. business firms. Companies retained a substantial portion of their profits to reinvest in productive capabilities, including those of career employees. In contrast, since the early 1980s, under a “downsize-and-distribute” corporate resource-allocation regime, unstable employment, inequitable income, and sagging productivity have characterized the U.S. economy. In transition from retain-and-reinvest to downsize-and-distribute, many of the largest, most powerful corporations have adopted a “dominate-and-distribute” resource-allocation regime: Based on the innovative capabilities that they have previously developed, these companies dominate market segments of their industries but prioritize shareholders in corporate resource allocation. The practice of open-market share repurchases—aka stock buybacks—at major U.S. business corporations has been central to the dominate-and-distribute and downsize-and-distribute regimes. Since the mid-1980s, stock buybacks have become the prime mode for the legalized looting of the business corporation. I call this looting process “predatory value extraction” and contend that it is the fundamental cause of the increasing concentration of income among the richest household units and the erosion of middle-class employment opportunities for most other Americans. I conclude the paper by outlining a policy framework that could stop the looting of the business corporation and put in place social institutions that support sustainable prosperity. The agenda includes a ban on stock buybacks done as open-market repurchases, radical changes in incentives for senior corporate executives, representation of workers and taxpayers as directors on corporate boards, reform of the tax system to reward innovation and penalize financialization, and, guided by the investment-triad framework, government programs to support “collective and cumulative careers” of members of the U.S. labor force. Sustained investment in human capabilities by the investment triad, including business firms, would make it possible for an ever-increasing portion of the U.S. labor force to engage in the productive careers that underpin upward socioeconomic mobility, which would be manifested by a growing, robust, and hopeful American middle class.

Many marshes show signs of degradation due to fragmentation, lack of sediment inputs, and erosion which may be exacerbated by sea level rise and increasing storm frequency/intensity. As a result, resource managers seek to restore marshes via introduction of sediment to increase elevation and stabilize the marsh platform. Recent field observations suggest the rapid formation of iron sulfide (FeS) materials following restoration in several marshes. To investigate, a laboratory microcosm study evaluated the formation of FeS following simulated restoration activities under continually inundated, simulated drought, and simulated tidal conditions. Results indicate that FeS horizon development initiated within 16 days, expanding to encompass > 30% of the soil profile after 120 days under continuously inundated and simulated tidal conditions. Continuously inundated conditions supported higher FeS content compared to other treatments. Dissolved and total Fe and S measurements suggest the movement and diffusion of chemical constituents from native marsh soil upwards into the overlying sediments, driving FeS precipitation. The study highlights the need to consider biogeochemical factors resulting in FeS formation during salt marsh restoration activities. Additional field research is required to link laboratory studies, which may represent a worst-case scenario, with in-situ conditions.

The elevated building at Scott-Amundsen South Pole Station was designed to mitigate the effects of windblown snow on it and the surrounding infrastructure. Because the elevation of the snow surface increases annually, the station is periodically lifted on its support columns to maintain its design height above the snow surface. To assist with planning these lifts, this effort developed a computational model to simulate snowdrift formation around the elevated building. The model uses computational fluid dynamics methods and synthetic wind record generation derived from statistical analysis of meteorological data. Simulations assessed the impact of several options for the lifting operation on drifts surrounding the elevated building. Simulation results indicate that raising the eastern-most building section (Pod A), or the entire station all at once, can reduce drift accumulation rates over the nearby arches structures. Long-term analyses, spanning 5–6 years, determine whether an equilibrium drift condition may be reached after a long period of undisturbed drift development. These simulations showed that after about 6 years, the rate of growth of the upwind drift slows, appearing to approach an equilibrium condition. However, the adjacent drifts were still increasing in depth at a roughly linear rate, indicating that equilibrium for those drifts was still several seasons away.

Macroeconomic summary Economic activity has recovered faster than projected, and output is now expected to return to pre-pandemic levels earlier than anticipated. Economic growth projections for 2021 and 2022 have been revised upward, though significant downward bias remains. (Graph 1.1). Colombia’s economy returned to recovery in the third quarter after significant supply shocks and a third wave of COVID-19 in the second. Negative shocks affecting mobility and output were absent in the third quarter, and some indicators of economic activity suggest that the rate of recovery in demand, primarily in consumption, outpaced estimates from the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) in the context of widely expansive monetary policy. Several factors are expected to continue to contribute to output recovery for the rest of the year and into 2022, including the persistence of favorable international financial conditions, an expected improvement in external demand, and an increase in terms of trade. Increasing vaccination rates, the expectation of higher levels of employment and the consequent effect on household income, improved investment performance (which has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels), and the expected stimulus from monetary policy that would continue to be expansive should also drive economic activity. As a result, output is estimated to have returned to its pre-pandemic level in the third quarter (previously expected in the fourth quarter). Growth is expected to decelerate in 2022, with excess productive capacity projected to close faster than anticipated in the previous report. Given the above, GDP growth projections have been revised upward for 2021 (9.8%, range between 8.4% and 11.2%) and 2022 (4.7%, range between 0.7% and 6.5%). If these estimates are confirmed, output would have grown by 2.3% on average between 2020 and 2022. This figure would be below long-term sustainable growth levels projected prior to the pandemic. The revised growth forecast for 2022 continues to account for a low basis of comparison from this year (reflecting the negative effects of COVID-19 and roadblocks in some parts of the country), and now supposes that estimated consumption levels for the end of 2021 will remain relatively stable in 2022. Investment and net exports are expected to recover at a faster pace than estimated in the previous report. Nevertheless, the downward risks to these estimates remain unusually significant, for several reasons. First, they do not suppose significant negative effects on the economy from possible new waves of COVID-19. Second, because private consumption, which has already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could perform less favorably than estimated in this forecast should it reflect a temporary phenomenon related to suppressed demand as service sectors re-open (e.g. tourism) and private savings accumulated during the pandemic are spent. Third, disruptions to supply chains could be more persistent than contemplated in this report and could continue to affect production costs, with a negative impact on the economy. Finally, the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances could translate to increased vulnerability to changes in international financial conditions or in international and domestic economic agents’ perception of risk in the Colombian economy, representing a downward risk to growth. A higher-than-expected increase in inflation, the persistence of supply shocks, and reduced excess productive capacity have led to an increase in inflation projections above the target on the forecast horizon (Graph 1.2). Inflation increased above expectations to 4.51% in the third quarter, due in large part to the price behavior of foods and regulated items, and to a lesser extent to core inflation. Increased international prices and costs continue to generate upward pressure on various sub-baskets of the consumer price index (CPI), as has the partial reversion of some price relief measures implemented in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

With its annual Payment Systems Report, Banco de la República offers a complete overview of the infrastructure of Colombia’s financial market. Each edition of the report has four objectives: 1) to publicize a consolidated account of how the figures for payment infrastructures have evolved with respect to both financial assets and goods and services; 2) to summarize the issues that are being debated internationally and are of interest to the industry that provides payment clearing and settlement services; 3) to offer the public an explanation of the ideas and concepts behind retail-value payment processes and the trends in retail payments within the circuit of individuals and companies; and 4) to familiarize the public, the industry, and all other financial authorities with the methodological progress that has been achieved through applied research to analyze the stability of payment systems. This edition introduces changes that have been made in the structure of the report, which are intended to make it easier and more enjoyable to read. The initial sections in this edition, which is the eleventh, contain an analysis of the statistics on the evolution and performance of financial market infrastructures. These are understood as multilateral systems wherein the participating entities clear, settle and register payments, securities, derivatives and other financial assets. The large-value payment system (CUD) saw less momentum in 2019 than it did the year before, mainly because of a decline in the amount of secondary market operations for government bonds, both in cash and sell/buy-backs, which was offset by an increase in operations with collective investment funds (CIFs) and Banco de la República’s operations to increase the money supply (repos). Consequently, the Central Securities Depository (DCV) registered less activity, due to fewer negotiations on the secondary market for public debt. This trend was also observed in the private debt market, as evidenced by the decline in the average amounts cleared and settled through the Central Securities Depository of Colombia (Deceval) and in the value of operations with financial derivatives cleared and settled through the Central Counterparty of Colombia (CRCC). Section three offers a comprehensive look at the market for retail-value payments; that is, transactions made by individuals and companies. During 2019, electronic transfers increased, and payments made with debit and credit cards continued to trend upward. In contrast, payments by check continued to decline, although the average daily value was almost four times the value of debit and credit card purchases. The same section contains the results of the fourth survey on how the use of retail-value payment instruments (for usual payments) is perceived. Conducted at the end of 2019, the main purpose of the survey was to identify the availability of these payment instruments, the public’s preferences for them, and their acceptance by merchants. It is worth noting that cash continues to be the instrument most used by the population for usual monthly payments (88.1% with respect to the number of payments and 87.4% in value). However, its use in terms of value has declined, having registered 89.6% in the 2017 survey. In turn, the level of acceptance by merchants of payment instruments other than cash is 14.1% for debit cards, 13.4% for credit cards, 8.2% for electronic transfers of funds and 1.8% for checks. The main reason for the use of cash is the absence of point-of-sale terminals at commercial establishments. Considering that the retail-payment market worldwide is influenced by constant innovation in payment services, by the modernization of clearing and settlement systems, and by the efforts of regulators to redefine the payment industry for the future, these trends are addressed in the fourth section of the report. There is an account of how innovations in technology-based financial payment services have developed, and it shows that while this topic is not new, it has evolved, particularly in terms of origin and vocation. One of the boxes that accompanies the fourth section deals with certain payment aspects of open banking and international experience in that regard, which has given the customers of a financial entity sovereignty over their data, allowing them, under transparent and secure conditions, to authorize a third party, other than their financial entity, to request information on their accounts with financial entities, thus enabling the third party to offer various financial services or initiate payments. Innovation also has sparked interest among international organizations, central banks, and research groups concerning the creation of digital currencies. Accordingly, the last box deals with the recent international debate on issuance of central bank digital currencies. In terms of the methodological progress that has been made, it is important to underscore the work that has been done on the role of central counterparties (CCPs) in mitigating liquidity and counterparty risk. The fifth section of the report offers an explanation of a document in which the work of CCPs in financial markets is analyzed and corroborated through an exercise that was built around the Central Counterparty of Colombia (CRCC) in the Colombian market for non-delivery peso-dollar forward exchange transactions, using the methodology of network topology. The results provide empirical support for the different theoretical models developed to study the effect of CCPs on financial markets. Finally, the results of research using artificial intelligence with information from the large-value payment system are presented. Based on the payments made among financial institutions in the large-value payment system, a methodology is used to compare different payment networks, as well as to determine which ones can be considered abnormal. The methodology shows signs that indicate when a network moves away from its historical trend, so it can be studied and monitored. A methodology similar to the one applied to classify images is used to make this comparison, the idea being to extract the main characteristics of the networks and use them as a parameter for comparison. Juan José Echavarría Governor