Academic literature on the topic 'United States. Government Technical Oil Mission'

The smallest of the nation's uniformed armed services, the United States Coast Guard's basic missions relate to maritime safety, mobility, and security; national defense, and natural resources protection. It is responsible for enforcement of maritime laws and marine environmental pollution response. The Coast Guard offers many career opportunities for enlisted personnel, including Marine Science Technician (MST). MSTs conduct marine-safety activities such as investigating pollution incidents and monitoring pollution clean-ups. Possible scientific duties include responding to oil and hazardous-materials spills, observing and forecasting weather. An increasing number of civilian employers are becoming more aware of the unique strengths former military personnel can bring with them to a consultant position. A consultant is someone who has expertise in a specific area or areas and offers unbiased opinions and advice for a fee. There are many reasons why the private and public sector need consultants for problem solving. One very important reason; Government regulatory compliance. Government regulations at all levels are constantly changing, and companies are frequently not prepared or trained to comply. Consultants may be retained to provide expertise to assist a company in complying economically, efficiently, and with the least amount of trauma to the organization. They can also be hired to provide in-house training to keep staff informed of new management and supervisory techniques or technical knowledge and to improve employee safety. Successful consultants often possess certain attributes. They can be identified with good physical and mental health, professional etiquette and courtesy, stability of behavior and self-confident. In addition to these skills, here are two military-related attributes that most companies find attractive and will help any organization simplify the task at hand. Loyalty to the Team. Military personnel bring with them an intrinsic understanding of how loyalty adds to team proficiency and builds trust in a work environment. For business leaders looking to make an improvement in their company, military personnel often outperform other candidates as proven team players, as demonstrated by hard work, motivation, and dedication. Reliable Work Ethic. Knowing the importance of adhering to a schedule and consistently performing well at work demonstrates professional maturity. One of the most difficult challenges to hiring professionals is being able to accurately judge candidates in these areas. Through service, training, and lifestyle, former military personnel will typically have the work ethic that any business owner would be thrilled to replicate in all of the organization's employees.

The Environmental Studies Program (ESP) at the United States Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) is funded by the United States Congress to support BOEM’s mission, which is to use the best available science to responsibly manage the development of the Nation’s offshore energy and mineral resources. Since its inception in 1973, the ESP has funded over $1 billion of multidisciplinary research across four main regions of the United States Outer Continental Shelf: Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic, Alaska, and Pacific. Understanding the dynamics of oil spills and their potential effects on the environment has been one of the primary goals of BOEM’s funding efforts. To this end, BOEM’s ESP continues to support research that improves oil spill modeling by advancing our understanding and the application of meteorological and oceanographic processes to improve oil spill modeling. Following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010, BOEM has invested approximately $28 million on relevant projects resulting in 73 peer-reviewed journal articles and 42 technical reports. This study describes the findings of these projects, along with the lessons learned and research information needs identified. Additionally, this paper presents a path forward for BOEM’s oil spill modeling and physical oceanographic research.

ABSTRACT The intent of the Oil Pollution Act of 1990 (OPA90) is to ensure the U.S. Government is prepared to protect the environment from a catastrophic spill of the magnitude and complexity of the 1989 EXXON VALDEZ oil spill. The OPA90 legislation resulted in an overall restructuring and enhancement of the National Strike Force (NSF), and establishment of District Response Groups who are staffed and equipped with mechanical spill recovery assets and are prepared to take prompt actions to mitigate a worst case discharge scenario. During the early 1990s, over $31 million dollars worth of oil spill response equipment was acquired and placed at 23 locations throughout the United States. Since then, an additional $10 million dollars of environmental emergency response equipment has been added to the USCG'S inventory, and are now located at 16 additional sites. This paper will elaborate on the evolution of the USCG'S environmental emergency response capabilities. In terms of preparedness, it will explain how, where and why the Coast Guard has adjusted its resources and capabilities since the OPA90 legislation. The expanded mission requirements include; redistributing and adjusting the locations of the Vessel of Opportunity Skimming Systems, expanding functional use of the pre-positioned equipment for dewatering during shipboard fires, designing and implementing an offload pumping system for viscous oil at each NSF Strike Team, revisiting the condition and continued use of OPA90 procured first response “band-aid’ equipment, modifying the basic response equipment systems for fast current spill response, and the implementation of the Spilled Oil Recovery System. These actions reflect policy and mission adjustments influenced by an ever changing environment. The Coast Guard has re-organized from the bottom up to meet increased port security measures, and the capability to respond to all-hazard incidents. We must continue to maintain a high state of readiness in the oil spill response environment and accept the need to incorporate change to the equipment and the way we conduct our support to the American public.

AbstractDefense Secretary Robert Gates approved the creation of a unified cyber command under the Obama Administration that was focused on cyber operations. This organization was to oversee the protection of government networks against cyber threats known and unknown. Coupled with growing attacks on national infrastructure, digital theft of intellectual property, and election meddling has the United States government actively working to develop cybersecurity talent. Some of the changes that have come as a result are more specialized degree program accreditation, technical frameworks, and policies to help usher this realization of the need to address the shortage of talent for today’s mission.

Early in 1982 CSR Limited established an Oil and Gas Division. By 1983 this Division had recruited twenty-six overseas technical personnel mainly from Canada and the United Kingdom. The Company needed to recruit overseas because the skills required were not available in Australia.During 1983 a review of the recruitment and settlement of these personnel and their families was undertaken. The objectives of this review were to:improve the Company performance in the recruitment, induction and settlement of overseas recruits and their families;increase the likely "length of stay" in Australia of overseas recruits and their families;to address specific problems faced by recruits and their families in settlement in Australia.In depth interviews were conducted with twenty-one of the twenty-six recruits and their families using a structured interview format.The analysis of the interviews results revealed that:on average it took longer for those recruited in the United Kingdom to obtain immigration "approvals" and to physically relocate than those recruited in Canada;families with previous experience in relocating adapted and coped better with the physical move and resettlement than families without previous experience.The detailed results showed further that:While there was sufficient information provided about the job and department, there was dissatisfaction with the lack of detailed information about aspects of living in Australia, particularly: taxation; housing; bank mortgage arrangements; cost of living data and medical insurance.There were gaps in the expectations that many- recruits and their families had about living in Australia, such as climate, lifestyle and housing. This was attributed to an "oversell" through glossy brochures and "word pictures".The attention given to staff and their families on arrival was seen as a positive introduction to Australia and CSR's Oil and Gas Division.The provision of initial temporary accommodation in a single apartment complex for all overseas recruits and families in Adelaide assisted greatly in the induction and settlement process. It provided a high level of support especially for wives with young children. The "welcome waggon" group together with the assistance provided by the wives of senior executives were also positive influences in the settlement process.The most positive features seen in the move to Australia were career and lifestyle opportunities. On the other hand loss of disposable income was seen as a significant negative.From the results and analysis a detailed set of recommendations and actions were developed to improve company performance in recruitment and settlement. These recommendations were implementated prior to the 1984 recruiting mission to Canada, the United States and the United Kingdom.The preliminary results from the 1984 recruiting mission have resulted in:a reduction in recruiting lead time;quicker and more informed decision making by candidates and their families in accepting job offers;more professional preparation of both the recruiting teams and the company's agents overseas.

ABSTRACT The organization that is most critical to the preparedness of a port is the Area Committee (AC). The Oil Pollution Act of 1990 (OPA 90) mandated the establishment of ACs in every port area in the United States and charged them with oversight of the preparedness of their ports through preparation of Area Contingency Plans (ACPs) to specify how spill responses would be carried out. ACs were formed across the United States, and initial ACPs were drafted. Since the AC is an ad hoc voluntary group in each port, its resources and time available to accomplish its functions are often limited. Over time some ACs flourished and initiated many worthwhile projects advancing their mission of port preparedness. Others, through a lack of focus and resources, failed to achieve their full potential. A recent study for the U.S. Coast Guard investigated the interaction of the AC and the Preparedness for Response Exercise Program (PREP) government-led area exercises to develop a vision for a more effective interaction. This paper highlights recommendations made during that study, which are believed to strengthen the AC process. The paper includes the characteristics of an effective AC based on interviews conducted by the authors with ACs across the United States. Some of the recommendations discussed in the paper include:A national AC model to serve as a guide for the organization and functioning of an effective ACFunctions that all ACs should accomplishNationally promulgated standards of port preparednessPerformance measures to objectively diagnose a port's preparednessA more aggressive role for ACs in the PREP area exercise programA national database to provide information to ACs and others involved with preparedness and response

This paper focuses on the development of marginal fields in Nigeria, the challenges, economic viability, and the role of the government in implementing the contributions of marginal fields to the national oil production output. Also, the previously reported marginal field development and management practices in the Niger Delta oilfield are x-rayed. Following the definition of the marginal field is an overview of different types of marginal field development in the Niger Delta region. Also, the United Kingdom Oil and Gas Recovery Regulatory Commission, the United States Security Exchange Commission, and the Nigerian government's categorization of what compose of a marginal field are included. In addition, the participation of the Nigerian federal government and contributions to the development of marginal fields in the bidding of marginal assets to the development of infrastructure are presented. Particular attention is paid to the factors that affect the development and choice of production strategies in the marginal fields of the Niger Delta. These factors discussed in detail in the document include environmental, technical, social, political, and economic factors. Again, different management and development strategies used by some marginal fields of the Niger Delta are x-rayed and presented with a particular focus on three of those strategies. The three common approaches in the Niger Delta marginal field development strategy are water flooding, infill drilling, and infrastructure sharing. These approaches have made marginal fields in Nigeria operational, competitive, and economically viable to date.

The need for skilled and semi-skilled indigenous manpower in the gulf states (e.g., Kuwait. Qatar, United Arab Emirates) is highly noted in the related literature. Technical and vocational education is considered as a dual type of education system that allow students to transfer what they have learned in classrooms, workshops, and laboratories into real work environment. It is the ultimate solution, particularly for the gulf states, to overcome and/or reduce the rate of dependance on expatriates especially in essential sectors in their economy (e.g., oil, electricity and water, health sector). The governments of the gulf states have realized the urgent need to forge technical and vocational colleges and institutions hoping to close the gap with industries and business. Technical and vocational education is completely different from formal education and thus requires a careful design, planning, and monitoring to ensure meeting industrial and business current and future requirements. However, the success of technical and vocational education would depend, to great extent, on the type of management since it requires a specific knowledge, skills, and attitudes that are distinguished technical and vocational education from any other types of education. The Higher Institute of Communications and Navigation, HIC&N, was forged by the Kuwaiti Government with the aim to equipped local manpower with the know-how and know-why that are mostly needed by local industries. The research is focus on measuring the perception of a sample of heads of departments at the Ministry of Communications towards the quality of HIC&N graduates. The research is based on extensive field work that encompasses a review of the related literature, interviews with a sample of heads of departments at the Ministry Communications to assess the quality of field training program and the standard of the HIC&N graduates. Finally, the research will argue that unless the HIC&N recognize and appreciate the value of building a strong linkage with local industries, its contribution in tackling the shortage of skilled and semi-skilled indigenous in essential sectors on the economy will be below the government expectations, thus continuing relaying on expatriates for years ahead.

The essentiality of the universities’ roles in enhancing economies and transforming societies is a global mantra. However, when it comes to wealthy and oil-dependent states such as Texas in the United States and Qatar in the Middle East, the impact of universities on sustainable economic development is questionable. This article discusses the transformational efforts within engineering colleges at two public universities in Texas and in Qatar to support their states’ visions in moving toward innovative and knowledge-based economies. The study examined the innovation capacity building of both institutions through measuring the transformational leadership styles in engineering colleges and its impact on the faculty’s innovative production of technical articles, patents, and sustainable development-related courses. The cultural impact of the two contexts on the leader–follower relationship was addressed in the discussion using Hofstede’s cultural dimension framework. The results showed that leaders in both colleges possess a transformational leadership style, albeit lower than the norm. This study disclosed that, in the high-power distance contexts, the idealized image of the leader contributed positively toward higher satisfaction of the followers with their leaders and current governance systems, while acknowledgment and rewards were the sources of satisfaction in low-power distance societies. Followers in a low uncertainty avoidance, individualistic, and short-term-oriented context achieved higher technical production. Both public universities expressed the need for government involvement in supporting the culture of innovation.

ABSTRACT The terrorist attacks of 9/11 brought an urgent, necessary call to protect the safety and security of the nations Critical Infrastructure/Key Resources (CI/KR). Most of these efforts have been to deter/prevent a terrorist attack through vulnerability assessment and increased physical security (e.g. “gates, guns and guards”). Just as the federal government was getting on solid ground with increased homeland security against the terrorist threat, the devastation of the 2005 Hurricanes Katrina and Rita brought to light the need for a true “All Hazards” approach to response. Added to this is the growing awareness that environmental incidents could significantly impact regional stability, and even threaten national security. Simply stated: “Yesterday'S major oil spill could be tomorrow'S national security incident.” The November 2007 allision (and resulting serious oil spill) of the tank ship COSCO BUSAN with the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge, provided a glimpse into these concerns and brought increased attention back upon this long standing marine safety mission. Ironically the 2006 “Safe Seas” exercise tested almost the very scenario of the COSCO BUSAN one year ago to the day of the spill. “Safe Seas” and other major drills (like “TOPOFF,” etc.) are tremendous tools for government and private sector stakeholders to enhance preparedness to response and test existing security and infrastructure protection systems. Given the above, traditional Oil Spill Response (OSR) is now part of a broader, more complicated systems-approach to domestic Incident Management (IM). The United States Coast Guard'S Marine Environmental Protection (MEP) mission has required the unique military I regulatory service to forge a collaborative relationship with the oil and gas industry - or “sector” (as defined in the National Infrastructure Protection Plan NIPP). This government-to-industry partnership was born out of decades of marine safety prevention/response efforts most visible following the Oil Pollution Act of 1990 (OPA 90). Many involved in the field of emergency management; as well as their security counterparts recognize it is difficult to understand both IM and IP, despite the myriad of new and developing federal plans and doctrine as we pass the half way point of the first decade in the Post 9/11 “new normalcy.” Due to dynamic and synergistic partnership between the U.S. Coast Guard and the American Petroleum Institute (API) a coordination and communication opportunity was identified that resulted in a concept of simplifying the landscape via a” 3 R+” concept. The focus areas of this paper are:To bring increased clarity to the current and emerging state of interoperability between the government and the private industry sector.Provide a simplified “Big Picture” view of what private sector professionals (middle to upper management in the emergency response/safety & health fields) need to know regarding the framework of the national system for our critical infrastructure and first line response, using the oil & gas sector as an example; Note: Although the target audience for this papen/presentation are private sector professionals, primarily in the response and security fields, the plans highlighted and information outlined could apply to those working IM or IP in any industry or government sector.

AbstractThis chapter examines the construction of the geographic information market in the United States. The focus is on two key building blocks in this process: (1) the development of (legal and technical) interoperability in the collection and dissemination of geographic information, and (2) the construction of Intellectual Property (IP) regimes. These elements are explored in the context of the institutional configuration between government, the private sector, and the public. This configuration, which in the United States bounds the role of government as a producer of geographic information and limits its actions in the market, creates suitable conditions for the continued production of geographic information as input to a growing market, as well as its consumption, circulation, transformation, and use by government agencies, private firms, and the broader public. Lastly, the chapter characterizes the geographic information market in the United States as relying on the legally delimitated role of the Federal Government as a de jure producer of informational inputs that foster the development of secondary applications in addition to fulfilling its primary mission of public information. Understanding the institutional, legal, and technical dimensions of the geographic information market will enable a clearer analysis of the linkages, transactions, and logics between government agencies, private firms, and civil society groups in the production of value through geographic information and other informational resources. More generally, the author argues that identifying the interplay between specific institutional environments, governing legal frameworks, and processes of technological innovation and knowledge generation is essential to studying, governing, and regulating informational markets in the digital economy.

This chapter refers to the supporting environment theory of cooperatives, which posits that success is spurred by the presence of promoters, a good legal and fiscal environment, and government support without government control. It inserts the term “ecosystem” in place of “environment” to foreground the interconnected system dynamics at work in supporting cooperative ecosystems. It also outlines how people launch and grow cooperatives within a particular ecosystem that includes the laws, government programs, and cooperative support organizations that influence them. The chapter mentions the social-movement approach to cooperatives, which suggests that degeneration follows a deemphasis and marginalization of building cohesive networks of apex and sector federations, plans, and proposals for technical and financial assistance. It discusses well-established cooperatives that abandon the mission of developing a cooperative movement in favour of responding to market forces and the individual cooperative's financial goals.

This chapter conceptualizes a process for cryptocurrency to diversify traditional methods of higher education funding in the United States. Cryptocurrency funding augments traditional revenue streams and shifts the discussion of education costs from expenses to a more robust conversation about innovative avenues to wealth generation as a potential solution to fund the mission of American higher education. This chapter acknowledges the central concerns of higher education funding as it explores these arguments as legacy discourses rooted in career preparation, accessibility and affordability, and arguments about the need for a broad-based education vs. more technical skills training. Further, an alternative model to current higher education funding models is presented, and if deployed, this asset class could help to serve education needs by funding research, students, and the academy through an illustrated conceptual framework for funding.

Chapter 4 traces CARE’s development during a period of recurring organizational crisis and economic instability. It analyses how CARE’s management and board of directors dealt with organizational overextension and the need to find both a new humanitarian mission and more sustainable business model. CARE began to apply for government-donated food surplus resulting from structural agricultural overproduction in the United States. By delivering agricultural abundance such as milk powder, butter oil and other food staples to people in the developing countries, CARE successfully occupied a humanitarian market niche and established itself as a (neither entirely private nor entirely public) provider of food aid.

For the past thirty years, the United States Office for the Advancement of Telehealth has promoted the use of technology for health care, education, and health information services, and funds the National and Regional Telehealth Resource Centers (TRCs) to provide technical assistance to support stakeholder telehealth adoption. To assess the challenges and opportunities for the TRCs to advance telehealth, we reviewed publications, national and regional telehealth strategies, guidance from government agency reports and the TRC websites. We summarized information about the mission, funding and structure of the TRC program in terms of the shared service center model of organizational functioning, followed by a description of the TRCs’ recent response to the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency.

Abstract The United States has a coordinated government/ industry turbine engine technology program in place to double propulsion capability by the year 2003. The Integrated High Performance Turbine Engine Technology (IHPTET) program is slightly more than half complete, with specific goals identified for engine thrust to weight, compressor exit temperature, acquisition and maintenance cost. The IHPTET program represents a significant improvement in turbine engine technology. The program plan is to achieve the goals in three steps Phases I-III each resulting in 30% improvement. The achievement of these goals is project through the use of advance aerodynamics, materials and design concepts. The successful demonstration of the IHPTET goals depends on the technical success of composite structures. All types of composites: OMC (Organic Matrix Composite), MMC (Metal Matrix Composites), CMC (Ceramic Matrix Composite) as well as C/C (Carbon-Carbon), have been aggressively works since the program began in 1988. The composite experiences before the IHPTET program will be included in the form of lesson learn. The IHPTET program has worked all aspects of composite development design, failure mode behavior and fabrication. The thrust in OMC’s has been primarily focus on Life prediction, low cost fabrication techniques and High temperature (>700F). The thrust in MMC’s has been mainly focus on fiber-reinforced titanium for high performance rotating engine hardware. The technology development includes design; failure mode behavior and testing of multiply engine components as well as Life prediction and low cost fabrication techniques, have been investigated. The thrust in high temperature composites CMC and C/C has been mainly focus on CMC’s. The technology development span both man-rate and non man-rate engine (cruise missile) applications, in the areas of design, failure mode behavior and testing of both rotating and nonrotating applications. The payoffs to the aircraft derived from the IHPTET are enormous. Many radical new mission capabilities are made viable through the IHPTET program. The high Mach multi-role fighters as an example are only possible with a variable cycle design, which requires extensive use of composite structures. These new capabilities will provide truly affordable ways to carry out the military’s mission by allowing aircraft resources to effectively operate from fewer worldwide locations as well as more affordable and environmentally friendly.

UNIDIR defines WAM in a comprehensive manner covering the oversight, accountability and governance of conventional arms and ammunition throughout their management cycle, including the establishment of relevant national frameworks, processes and practices for the safe and secure production and acquisition of materiel, stockpiling, transfers, end use control, tracing and disposal. This holistic approach is essential in ensuring that efforts to better regulate arms and ammunition are undertaken in alignment with broader security sector, rule of law, armed violence reduction, counter-terrorism, and peacebuilding processes, and not in isolation. This country insight presents key findings of the national WAM baseline follow-up assessment conducted in April 2022 by the Government of the Central African Republic (CAR), via the designated national lead entity, the Commission nationale de Lutte contre la Prolifération des Armes Légères et de Petit Calibre (ComNat-ALPC) in cooperation with and with technical assistance from the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), with the organisational and logistical support of the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission in the CAR (MINUSCA). The publication draws from the comprehensive baseline follow-up assessment report transmitted by UNIDIR to the Government of CAR in August 2022 and sheds light on the progress made in WAM since the first baseline assessment in 2017, the existing institutional and operational capacities, challenges faced by the Central African authorities at the strategic and operational levels and options for further strengthening the national framework governing the life-cycle management of weapons and ammunition in CAR. The Country Insight covers the period up to April 2022 and does not reflect or take into account more recent changes and developments including with regards to WAM in CAR since April 2022. Nevertheless, most of the main findings as well as the identified options to further strengthening WAM in CAR remain relevant and valid. UNIDIR encourages the community of states, regional and sub-regional organisations and relevant international partners to consult this CAR WAM Country Insight, as well as its Country Insight and Annual WAM Update series, as a basis for strengthening WAM policies and practices at different levels as well as planning, implementing and evaluating future programmes and projects related to WAM, and related areas, in CAR and other respective African States.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

1. Macroeconomic Summary In December, headline inflation (13.1%) and the average of the core inflation measures (10.3%) continued to trend upward, posting higher rates than those estimated by the Central Bank's technical staff and surpassing the market average. Inflation expectations for all terms exceeded the 3.0% target. In that month, every major group in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered higher-than-estimated increases, and the diffusion indicators continued to show generalized price hikes. Accumulated exchange rate pressures on prices, indexation to high inflation rates, and several food supply shocks would explain, in part, the acceleration in inflation. All of this is in a context of significant surplus demand, a tight labor market, and inflation expectations at different terms that exceed the 3.0% target. Compared to the October edition of the Monetary Policy Report, the forecast path for headline and core inflation (excluding food and regulated items: EFR) increased (Graphs 1.1 and 1.2), reflecting heightened accumulated exchange rate pressures, price indexation to a higher inflation rate (CPI and the producer price index: PPI), and the rise in labor costs attributed to a larger-than-estimated adjustment in the minimum wage. Nevertheless, headline inflation is expected to begin to ease by early 2023, although from a higher level than had been estimated in October. This would be supported initially by the slowdown forecast for the food CPI due to a high base of comparison, the end anticipated for the shocks that have affected the prices of these products, and the estimated improvement in external and domestic supply in this sector. In turn, the deterioration in real household income because of high inflation and the end of the effects of pent-up demand, plus tighter external and domestic financial conditions would contribute to diluting surplus demand in 2023 and reducing inflation. By the end of 2023, both headline and core (EFR) inflation would reach 8.7% and would be 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively, by December 2024. These forecasts are subject to a great deal of uncertainty, especially concerning the future behavior of international financial conditions, the evolution of the exchange rate, the pace of adjustment in domestic demand, the extent of indexation of nominal contracts, and the decisions taken regarding the domestic price of fuel and electricity. In the third quarter, economic activity surprised again on the upside and the growth projection for 2022 rose to 8.0% (previously 7.9%). However, it declined to 0.2% for 2023 (previously 0.5%). With this, surplus demand continues to be significant and is still expected to weaken during the current year. Annual economic growth in the third quarter (7.1 % SCA)1 was higher than estimated in October (6.4 % SCA), given stronger domestic demand specifically because of higher-than-expected investment. Private consumption fell from the high level witnessed a quarter earlier and net exports registered a more negative contribution than anticipated. For the fourth quarter, economic activity indicators suggest that gross domestic product (GDP) would have remained high and at a level similar to that observed in the third quarter, with an annual variation of 4.1%. Domestic demand would have slowed in annual terms, although at levels that would have remained above those for output, mainly because of considerable private consumption. Investment would have declined slightly to a value like the average observed in 2019. The real trade deficit would have decreased due to a drop in imports that was more pronounced than the estimated decline in exports. On the forecast horizon, consumption is expected to decline from current elevated levels, partly because of tighter domestic financial conditions and a deterioration in real income due to high inflation. Investment would also weaken and return to levels below those seen before the pandemic. In real terms, the trade deficit would narrow due to a lower momentum projection for domestic demand and higher cumulative real depreciation. In sum, economic growth for all of 2022, 2023, and 2024 would stand at 8.0%, 0.2% and 1.0%, respectively (Graph 1.3). Surplus demand remains high (as measured by the output gap) and is expected to decline in 2023 and could turn negative in 2024 (Graph 1.4). Although the macroeconomic forecast includes a marked slowdown in the economy, an even greater adjustment in domestic absorption cannot be ruled out due to the cumulative effects of tighter external and domestic financial conditions, among other reasons. These estimates continue to be subject to a high degree of uncertainty, which is associated with factors such as global political tensions, changes in international interest rates and their effects on external demand, global risk aversion, the effects of the approved tax reform, the possible impact of reforms announced for this year (pension, health, and labor reforms, among others), and future measures regarding hydrocarbon production. In 2022, the current account deficit would have been high (6.3 % of GDP), but it would be corrected significantly in 2023 (to 3.9 % of GDP) given the expected slowdown in domestic demand. Despite favorable terms of trade, the high external imbalance that would occur during 2022 would be largely due to domestic demand growth, cost pressures associated with high freight rates, higher external debt service payments, and good performance in terms of the profits of foreign companies.2 By 2023, the adjustment in domestic demand would be reflected in a smaller current account deficit especially due to fewer imports, a global moderation in prices and cost pressures, and a reduction in profits remitted abroad by companies with foreign direct investment (FDI) focused on the local market. Despite this anticipated correction in the external imbalance, its level as a percentage of GDP would remain high in the context of tight financial conditions. In the world's main economies, inflation forecasts and expectations point to a reduction by 2023, but at levels that still exceed their central banks' targets. The path anticipated for the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate increased and the forecast for global growth continues to be moderate. In the fourth quarter of 2022, logistics costs and international prices for some foods, oil and energy declined from elevated levels, bringing downward pressure to bear on global inflation. Meanwhile, the higher cost of financing, the loss of real income due to high levels of global inflation, and the persistence of the war in Ukraine, among other factors, have contributed to the reduction in global economic growth forecasts. In the United States, inflation turned out to be lower than estimated and the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the growth forecast for 2023. Nevertheless, the actual level of inflation in that country, its forecasts, and expectations exceed the target. Also, the labor market remains tight, and fiscal policy is still expansionary. In this environment, the Fed raised the expected path for policy interest rates and, with this, the market average estimates higher levels for 2023 than those forecast in October. In the region's emerging economies, country risk premia declined during the quarter and the currencies of those countries appreciated against the US dollar. Considering all the above, for the current year, the Central Bank's technical staff increased the path estimated for the Fed's interest rate, reduced the forecast for growth in the country's external demand, lowered the expected path of oil prices, and kept the country’s risk premium assumption high, but at somewhat lower levels than those anticipated in the previous Monetary Policy Report. Moreover, accumulated inflationary pressures originating from the behavior of the exchange rate would continue to be important. External financial conditions facing the economy have improved recently and could be associated with a more favorable international context for the Colombian economy. So far this year, there has been a reduction in long-term bond interest rates in the markets of developed countries and an increase in the prices of risky assets, such as stocks. This would be associated with a faster-than-expected reduction in inflation in the United States and Europe, which would allow for a less restrictive course for monetary policy in those regions. In this context, the risks of a global recession have been reduced and the global appetite for risk has increased. Consequently, the risk premium continues to decline, the Colombian peso has appreciated significantly, and TES interest rates have decreased. Should this trend consolidate, exchange rate inflationary pressures could be less than what was incorporated into the macroeconomic forecast. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their impact on the country remains high, given the unpredictable course of the war in Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, local uncertainty, and the extensive financing needs of the Colombian government and the economy. High inflation with forecasts and expectations above 3.0%, coupled with surplus demand and a tight labor market are compatible with a contractionary stance on monetary policy that is conducive to the macroeconomic adjustment needed to mitigate the risk of de-anchoring inflation expectations and to ensure that inflation converges to the target. Compared to the forecasts in the October edition of the Monetary Policy Report, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed level of output exceeding the productive capacity of the economy. In this context of surplus demand, headline and core inflation continued to trend upward and posted surprising increases. Observed and expected international interest rates increased, the country’s risk premia lessened (but remains at high levels), and accumulated exchange rate pressures are still significant. The technical staff's inflation forecast for 2023 increased and inflation expectations remain well above 3.0%. All in all, the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored persists, which would accentuate the generalized indexation process and push inflation even further away from the target. This macroeconomic context requires consolidating a contractionary monetary policy stance that aims to meet the inflation target within the forecast horizon and bring the economy's output to levels closer to its potential. 1.2 Monetary Policy Decision At its meetings in December 2022 and January 2023, Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR) agreed to continue the process of normalizing monetary policy. In December, the BDBR decided by a majority vote to increase the monetary policy interest rate by 100 basis points (bps) and in its January meeting by 75 bps, bringing it to 12.75% (Graph 1.5). 1/ Seasonally and calendar adjusted. 2/ In the current account aggregate, the pressures for a higher external deficit come from those companies with FDI that are focused on the domestic market. In contrast, profits in the mining and energy sectors are more than offset by the external revenue they generate through exports. Box 1 - Electricity Rates: Recent Developments and Indexation. Author: Édgar Caicedo García, Pablo Montealegre Moreno and Álex Fernando Pérez Libreros Box 2 - Indicators of Household Indebtedness. Author: Camilo Gómez y Juan Sebastián Mariño