Journal articles on the topic 'Unemployment insurance Econometric models'
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1
Landais, Camille, Pascal Michaillat, and Emmanuel Saez. "A Macroeconomic Approach to Optimal Unemployment Insurance: Theory." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 10, no. 2 (May 1, 2018): 152–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/pol.20150088.
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This paper develops a theory of optimal unemployment insurance (UI) in matching models. The optimal UI replacement rate is the conventional Baily-Chetty replacement rate, which solves the tradeoff between insurance and job-search incentives, plus a correction term, which is positive when an increase in UI pushes the labor market tightness toward its efficient level. In matching models, most wage mechanisms do not ensure efficiency, so tightness is generally inefficient. The effect of UI on tightness depends on the model: increasing UI may raise tightness by alleviating the rat race for jobs or lower tightness by increasing wages through bargaining. (JEL E24, J22, J23, J31, J41, J64, J65)
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Costain, James S., and Michael Reiter. "Business cycles, unemployment insurance, and the calibration of matching models." Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 32, no. 4 (April 2008): 1120–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2007.04.008.
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Lehr, Brandon. "Optimal Unemployment Insurance with Endogenous Negative Duration Dependence." Public Finance Review 45, no. 3 (May 4, 2016): 395–422. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1091142116644775.
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This article characterizes optimal unemployment insurance (UI) in an economy with endogenous negative duration dependence in hiring rates for the unemployed. The characterization generalizes the standard Baily–Chetty result and is independent of the particular mechanism generating endogenous hiring rates. I find that at the social optimum, UI equates the moral hazard cost with the sum of the insurance benefit and a new externality correction term. The sign of this externality correction term depends, in part, on the responsiveness of hiring rates to the UI benefit. I show how the effect of UI on hiring rates in turn depends on the particular assumptions about firm behavior, considering the cases of employer screening and human capital depreciation models.
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Chetty, Raj, and Emmanuel Saez. "Optimal Taxation and Social Insurance with Endogenous Private Insurance." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 2, no. 2 (May 1, 2010): 85–116. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/pol.2.2.85.
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We characterize welfare gains from government intervention when the private sector provides partial insurance. We analyze models in which adverse selection, pre-existing information, or imperfect optimization create a role for government intervention. We derive formulas that map existing empirical estimates into quantitative predictions for optimal policy. When private insurance generates moral hazard, standard formulas for optimal government insurance must be modified to account for fiscal externalities. In contrast, standard formulas are unaffected by “informal” private insurance that does not generate moral hazard. Applications to health and unemployment show that formal private market insurance can significantly reduce optimal government benefit rates. (JEL D82, G22, H21, H23, J65)
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Ganong, Peter, and Pascal Noel. "Consumer Spending during Unemployment: Positive and Normative Implications." American Economic Review 109, no. 7 (July 1, 2019): 2383–424. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20170537.
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Using de-identified bank account data, we show that spending drops sharply at the large and predictable decrease in income arising from the exhaustion of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. We use the high-frequency response to a predictable income decline as a new test to distinguish between alternative consumption models. The sensitivity of spending to income we document is inconsistent with rational models of liquidity-constrained households, but is consistent with behavioral models with present-biased or myopic households. Depressed spending after exhaustion also implies that the consumption-smoothing gains from extending UI benefits are four times larger than from raising UI benefit levels. (JEL D14, D91, E21, E24, E70, J65)
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Holmlund, Bertil. "Labor Taxation in Search Equilibrium with Home Production." German Economic Review 3, no. 4 (December 1, 2002): 415–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1468-0475.00066.
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Abstract Conventional models of equilibrium unemployment typically imply that proportional taxes on labor earnings are neutral with respect to unemployment as long as the tax does not affect the replacement rate provided by unemployment insurance, i.e. unemployment benefits relative to after-tax earnings. When home production is an option, the conventional results may no longer hold. This paper uses a search equilibrium model with home production to examine the employment and welfare implications of labor taxes. The employment effect of a rise in a proportional tax is found to be negative for sufficiently low replacement rates, whereas it is ambiguous for moderate and high replacement rates. Numerical calibrations of the model indicate that employment generally falls when labor taxes are raised.
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Nekoei, Arash, and Andrea Weber. "Does Extending Unemployment Benefits Improve Job Quality?" American Economic Review 107, no. 2 (February 1, 2017): 527–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20150528.
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Contrary to standard search models predictions, past studies have not found a positive effect of unemployment insurance (UI) on reemployment wages. We estimate a positive UI wage effect exploiting an age-based regression discontinuity design in Austria. A search model incorporating duration dependence predicts two countervailing forces: UI induces workers to seek higher-wage jobs, but reduces wages by lengthening unemployment. Matching-function heterogeneity plausibly generates a negative relationship between the UI unemployment-duration and wage effects, which holds empirically in our sample and across studies, reconciling disparate wage-effect estimates. Empirically, UI raises wages by improving reemployment firm quality and attenuating wage drops. (JEL J31, J64, J65)
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Lusher, Lester, Geoffrey C. Schnorr, and Rebecca L. C. Taylor. "Unemployment Insurance as a Worker Indiscipline Device? Evidence from Scanner Data." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 14, no. 2 (April 1, 2022): 285–319. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/app.20190007.
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We provide causal evidence of an ex ante moral hazard effect of unemployment insurance (UI ) by matching plausibly exogenous changes in UI benefit duration across state-weeks during the Great Recession to high-frequency productivity measures from individual supermarket cashiers. Estimating models with date and cashier-register fixed effects, we identify a modest but statistically significant negative relationship between UI benefits and worker productivity. This effect is strongest for more experienced and less productive cashiers, for whom UI expansions are especially relevant. Additional analyses from the American Time Use Survey reveal a similar increase in shirking during periods with increased UI benefit durations. (JEL D82, E32, J22, J24, J65, L81)
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DellaVigna, Stefano, Jörg Heining, Johannes F. Schmieder, and Simon Trenkle. "Evidence on Job Search Models from a Survey of Unemployed Workers in Germany." Quarterly Journal of Economics 137, no. 2 (October 28, 2021): 1181–232. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjab039.
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Abstract The job-finding rate of unemployment insurance (UI) recipients declines in the initial months of unemployment and then exhibits a spike at the benefit exhaustion point. A range of theoretical explanations have been proposed, but those are hard to disentangle using data on job finding alone. To better understand the underlying mechanisms, we conducted a large text-message-based survey of unemployed workers in Germany. We surveyed 6,349 UI recipients twice a week for four months about their job search effort. The panel structure allows us to observe how search effort evolves in individuals over the unemployment spell. We provide three key facts: (i) search effort is flat early on in the UI spell, (ii) search effort exhibits an increase up to UI exhaustion and a decrease thereafter, (iii) UI recipients do not appear to time job start dates to coincide with the UI exhaustion point. A standard search model with unobserved heterogeneity struggles to explain the second fact, and a model of storable offers is not consistent with the third fact. The patterns are well captured by a model of reference-dependent job search or by a model with duration dependence in search cost.
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Jäger, Simon, Benjamin Schoefer, Samuel Young, and Josef Zweimüller. "Wages and the Value of Nonemployment*." Quarterly Journal of Economics 135, no. 4 (May 18, 2020): 1905–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjaa016.
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Abstract Nonemployment is often posited as a worker’s outside option in wage-setting models such as bargaining and wage posting. The value of nonemployment is therefore a key determinant of wages. We measure the wage effect of changes in the value of nonemployment among initially employed workers. Our quasi-experimental variation in the value of nonemployment arises from four large reforms of unemployment insurance (UI) benefit levels in Austria. We document that wages are insensitive to UI benefit changes: point estimates imply a wage response of less than $0.01 per $1.00 UI benefit increase, and we can reject sensitivities larger than $0.03. The insensitivity holds even among workers with low wages and high predicted unemployment duration, and among job switchers hired out of unemployment. The insensitivity of wages to the nonemployment value presents a puzzle to the widely used Nash bargaining model, which predicts a sensitivity of $0.24–$0.48. Our evidence supports wage-setting models that insulate wages from the value of nonemployment.
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Dvouletý, Ondřej. "Does the Self-employment Policy Reduce Unemployment and Increase Employment? Empirical Evidence from the Czech Regions." Central European Journal of Public Policy 11, no. 2 (December 1, 2017): 11–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/cejpp-2016-0032.
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Abstract Empirical evidence related to the effectivity and outcomes of the self-employment programmes in the Central and Eastern Europe is still very rare, despite the important role of entrepreneurship in the economic development of post-communist economies. The main purpose of this study was to empirically investigate the impact of self-employment subsidy for unemployed in the Czech NUTS 3 regions for the period of years 2012–2015 to provide policy makers supportive material useful for policy adjustments. The study applies quantitative research framework, which is based on the construction of econometric models. Estimated regression models with region fixed effects supported the negative association between the amount of supported self-employed and unemployment rates in the Czech regions. This finding is theoretically framed by the theory of necessity entrepreneurship. Positive spillover of the programme (‘a double dividend’), was econometrically tested on the regional employment rates. Obtained estimates found that there is a positive contemporaneous relationship (weakly significant) between the number of supported self-employed and the employment rates but not in the lag. Analysis of the costs revealed that the costs of self-employment programme are not that high, if one takes into account the alternative costs of unemployment benefits paid to the unemployed and social insurance paid back to the state by the newly established self-employed. Therefore, this tool of active labour market policy has a potential of wider usage. Nevertheless, the applied empirical strategy was based on the regional level and has its limitations. Provided results need to be interpreted cautiously, without any causal inference, because the true outcomes of the programme could be analysed only on the level of supported individuals. Future research should therefore challenge the effectiveness of the start-up subsidy programmes in the Czech Republic on the level of individuals, with focus on the survival rates of subsidized businesses and incomes of their formerly unemployed owners.
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Bergmann, Barbara R. "Micro-to-Macro Simulation: A Primer With a Labor Market Example." Journal of Economic Perspectives 4, no. 1 (February 1, 1990): 99–116. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.4.1.99.
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Simulation models, now widely used in the physical sciences, can also help economists in depicting the actions and interactions of individuals and firms through time. This article provides an introduction to microsimulation: how it works, how to do it, its potential, and its drawbacks. It then allows readers, even those with no experience in computer programming, to work through the details of a simple microsimulation model. Readers can put this model on their PCs, watch it run through its paces, and experiment with their own modifications. With this model as an example, it should be fairly easy to create programs for new models on other subjects for use in theoretical exploration, empirical research, or classroom demonstrations. The demonstration model I present depicts the experience of individual workers during recession and recovery in the labor market. As the model runs, its internal” Census Bureau” performs surveys on the microlevel, and sums up to macrolevel variables. The model is simple, but it has some interesting applications. After explaining how to set it up, I use it to explore the effect of unemployment insurance on the level of unemployment and to point up a common fallacy in current labor market literature.
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Dey, Sudip. "Capital Formation and Three Major Sectorial Female Employments in Six South Asian Countries." Economic Insights – Trends and Challenges 2022, no. 2 (2022): 57–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.51865/eitc.2022.02.04.
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Female employment is a crucial measure especially for developing countries. It increases women empowerment, brings financial solvency, declines poverty rate and gender gap, reduces unemployment rate, and improves living standard and more. The prime goals of the paper are to investigate the impacts of capital formation on three major sectorial (agriculture, industry and service) female employments in six South Asian countries. The panel data set for the six South Asian countries is collected from 1991 to 2018. Fixed effect, random effects model and Hausman test have been employed to conduct the study. To discuss the impacts of capital formation on the three female employment sectors the study is splinted in three models. The econometric outcomes of the first model represent that there is a highly significant strong negative impact of gross capital formation on the agricultural sector. The study identifies that mechanization, structural transformation, declining agricultural land areas through capital formation, and female literacy rate are the key factors for this expected result. On the other side, the empirical results of the second and third models make it clear that gross capital formation has strong and highly significant positive impacts in the industrial and service sectors. Findings of the study confirm that economic growth, improvement of educational level, growth of manufacturing, advertising, marketing, finance, entertainment, telecommunications, media, hospitality sectors, RMG sector, tourism sector, banks, insurance companies, NGOs, trade related services, living standard, and health sector through capital formation are the responsible factors for these desired results in the industrial and service sectors’ female employment.
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Lackman, Conway, and Alex Valz. "Risk Funding of Unemployment Insurance: An Econometric Approach." Interfaces 18, no. 2 (April 1988): 64–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/inte.18.2.64.
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Baratova, Dinora Alisherovna. "Econometric Assessment of Factors Affecting the Development of Life Insurance in Uzbekistan." Revista Gestão Inovação e Tecnologias 11, no. 2 (June 5, 2021): 1123–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.47059/revistageintec.v11i2.1741.
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This article presents an econometric assessment of the role of the insurance industry in the economy of Uzbekistan and the factors influencing the development of life insurance. It also covers the scientific theoretical research of scientists studying the economics of insurance. In addition, the development of accumulative life insurance in Uzbekistan was econometrically analyzed and Uzbekinvest Life Insurance Company was selected as a sample from the package. The econometric analysis of the development of insurance activities of the insurance company "Uzbekinvest Life" identifies the main factors influencing its development. Factors influencing the development of Uzbekinvest Life insurance company through econometric models were assessed. In addition, proposals were made for the development of funded life insurance in Uzbekistan.
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Lewandowska-Gwarda, Karolina. "Spatio-temporal Analysis of Unemployment Rate in Poland." Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe 15, no. 4 (March 8, 2013): 133–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/v10103-012-0031-9.
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The aim of this paper is to present results of spatio-temporal analysis of unemployment rate in Poland, with the usage of advanced spatial econometric methods. The analysis was done on data collected for ‘powiat’ level between 2006 and 2010. GlS and ESDA tools were applied for visualization of the spatiotemporal data and identification of spatial interactions between polish counties on labor market. Multi-equation spatial econometric models were used to describe unemployment rate in relation to selected social-economic variables.
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Śliwicki, Dominik. "Econometric Analysis of the Factors of Long-term Unemployment in Poland." Oeconomia Copernicana 4, no. 2 (June 30, 2013): 39–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.12775/oec.2013.012.
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Long-term unemployment that is lasting more than twelve months,a phenomenon described by the theory of economics as a manifestation of a permanentimbalance between labor supply and demand for labor. In fact, it bringsthe same negative effects both in terms of economic, social and individual sphere.As a result, it leads to the formation of pejorative phenomena and behavior. Tocounter these negative phenomena, public employment services in its terms ofreference have the early detection of people at risk of long-term unemployment andto take preventive measures.The purpose of this article is to present logit econometric models defining thefactors which have a significant impact on long-term unemployment. These modelscan be used to predict the probability of long-term unemployment at the microlevel, ie for a single person. Due to the fact that the survey methodology are two definitions of unemployment – the first by the methodology of the Labour ForceSurvey, the second according to the law on employment promotion and labor marketinstitutions, one presented two models describing the probability of long-termunemployment and a comparative analysis.
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Nicholson, Walter, and Karen Needels. "Unemployment Insurance: Strengthening the Relationship between Theory and Policy." Journal of Economic Perspectives 20, no. 3 (May 1, 2006): 47–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.20.3.47.
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Ever since the U.S. federal–state system of unemployment insurance was founded in the 1930s, it has provided partial, temporary replacement of wages to eligible workers who lose jobs “through no fault of their own” (as determined by state-level regulations). Unemployment insurance is one of the largest social insurance programs in the United States, with benefits paid totaling about $34 billion in 2004. Economic theory can help us understand the challenges this complex program is likely to face over the next few years. We begin by summarizing the salient characteristics of the unemployment insurance program and then examine the theoretical and econometric research. Much of this research revolves around the main goals of the program, which include: 1) sustaining consumption for workers and their families; 2) helping recipients to make efficient job choices during a period of financial stress; and 3) minimizing the adverse incentives that may accompany partial wage replacement. Of course, these goals can come into conflict—for example, if replacing wages for an unemployed worker also discourages that worker from aggressively searching for or accepting a new job—and our discussion will focus on these conflicts. In conclusion, we address the key policy issues that the unemployment insurance system is likely to face in upcoming years and ways policymakers may be able to use economic analysis to adjust the program so that it remains effective in addressing the needs of unemployed workers.
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Choi, S. E., L. Simon, C. A. Riedy, and J. R. Barrow. "Modeling the Impact of COVID-19 on Dental Insurance Coverage and Utilization." Journal of Dental Research 100, no. 1 (August 28, 2020): 50–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022034520954126.
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Unemployment rates in the United States are rapidly increasing as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and attendant economic disruption. As employees lose their jobs, many will lose their employer-sponsored dental insurance (ESDI). Changes in insurance coverage are directly related to the oral health of the population, with many at risk of losing access to dental care. We assessed the impact of recent unemployment rates on insurance coverage and dental utilization. We estimated changes in dental insurance coverage at the state level, using previously applied econometric estimates. Expected changes in types of dental procedures performed at dental practices nationwide were assessed using a microsimulation model, using national practice survey data. Changes in emergency department (ED) visits for dental problems were estimated by fitting trendlines to ED visit patterns by payer type. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess how variations in unemployment rates and rates of ESDI in response to unemployment could alter the results. Since March 2020, the national unemployment rate has increased by 8.40 percentage points, an increase expected to result in more than 16 million individuals losing ESDI in the United States. Of these individuals, 45.0% are likely to enroll in their state’s Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance Program, and 47.0% are expected to become uninsured. With these expected changes in dental insurance coverage, the average dental practice would experience decreases in routine checkup visits but increases in tooth extraction, a procedure that is highly used by publicly insured or uninsured patients. In addition, dental-related ED visits would be expected to grow by 4.0%. Losses of employment caused by the COVID-19 in the United States can have countervailing effects on people’s health by impeding access to dental care. Lack of dental insurance is expected to be more pronounced in states that have not expanded Medicaid or do not provide Medicaid dental benefits for adults.
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Segodi, Mmakgabo Pinkie, and Athenia Bongani Sibindi. "Determinants of Life Insurance Demand: Empirical Evidence from BRICS Countries." Risks 10, no. 4 (April 1, 2022): 73. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/risks10040073.
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The life insurance industry has experienced phenomenal growth over the years. The broad aim of this study was to establish the variables that influence the demand for life insurance in the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). Although many studies have investigated the determinants of life insurance demand, little research has considered the supply-side factors such as financial regulation. Therefore, this study also contemplated the effect of the financial regulation variable on life insurance demand. The inquiry employed a panel of the BRICS bloc of countries as a unit of analysis for 1999–2020 and applied panel data econometric techniques. The study found that the life insurance demand variable (proxied by life insurance density and alternatively by life insurance penetration) was negatively affected by income, unemployment, interest rates and inflation variables. Furthermore, the study documented a positive relationship between life insurance demand and the economic growth and financial freedom variables. This study implies that regulatory authorities should deregulate the life insurance sector to foster financial freedom.
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Simionescu, Bratu Mihaela. "Predicting Macroeconomic Indicators in the Czech Republic Using Econometric Models and Exponential Smoothing Techniques." South East European Journal of Economics and Business 7, no. 2 (November 1, 2012): 89–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/v10033-012-0017-3.
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Abstract Econometric modeling and exponential smoothing techniques are two quantitative forecasting methods with good results in practice, but the objective of the research was to find out which of the two techniques are better for short run predictions. Therefore, for inflation, unemployment and interest rate in the Czech Republic various accuracy indicators were calculated for the predictions based on these methods. Short run forecasts on a horizon of 3 months were made for December 2011-February 2012, the econometric models being updated. For the Czech Republic, the exponential smoothing techniques provided more accurate forecasts than the econometric models (VAR(2) models, ARMA procedure and models with lagged variables). One explication for the better performance of smoothing techniques would be that in the chosen countries the short run predictions were more influenced by the recent evolution of the indicators.
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Formánek, Tomáš, and Roman Hušek. "Spatial Aspects Of Unemployment In The Visegrad-Group Economies." Creative and Knowledge Society 6, no. 2 (December 1, 2016): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/cks-2016-0007.
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Abstract Purpose of the article: Most regional macroeconomic processes may not be adequately analyzed without accounting for their spatial nature: regional distances, interactions between neighbors, spill-over effects and interdependencies. This contribution focuses on various factors ruling unemployment dynamics in the Visegrad Group countries and their major economic partners: Germany and Austria. The analysis is performed at the NUTS2 level. Methodology/methods: Spatial econometrics is a unique tool for a broad range of quantitative analyses and evaluations. Spatial econometric models are based on geo-coded (spatially defined) data. Spatial econometrics and regional competitiveness paradigms are combined into different types of regression model specifications describing unemployment dynamics. Alternative spatial structures (i.e. neighbor definitions) are used for verification of stability in estimated model properties. Scientific aim: We aim to provide a detailed empirical evaluation of spatially determined factors of regional unemployment dynamics, along with insight into the robustness of such approach. Both conceptually and parametrically varying neighbor definitions are used to provide evidence for model evaluation. Findings: We find strong positive spatial dependence patterns in the estimated models, robust against varying neighborhood definitions. Our results strongly support the importance of regional and potentially cross-border (international) cooperation in macroeconomic policies addressing unemployment. The estimated models also underline the importance of using spatial models, by pointing out the bias in OLS-estimated models. Conclusions and limits: Spatial approach to econometric analysis provides important insight and robustness to a broad range of unemployment analyses that may be carried out using regional (spatial) data. At the same time, it should be noted that this article focuses mostly on the spatial and stability aspects of model estimation, while leaving out other interesting topics such as spill-over effects calculations as based on estimated models. Also, estimations provided in this article might benefit from spatial panel data-based methods - once data availability issues are sorted.
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Arlt, Josef, Markéta Arltová, and Jindřich Klůfa. "Empirical Analysis for Testing the Validity of the Phillips Curve in the Czech Republic." International Journal of Economics and Statistics 10 (March 15, 2022): 154–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.46300/9103.2022.10.25.
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Inflation and unemployment are the most important economic indicators for each country. The latest information is always impatiently expected, analyzed and commented not only by economists but also by inhabitants of the country. This article goes back to the original idea of the Phillips curve as a tool for empirical verification of the relationship between inflation and unemployment. The question that arises is whether the unemployment rate can be used to explain the changes in the inflation rate and on the contrary, in the Czech Republic. The verification of this relationship will be carried out on the basis of econometric models (ADL models and cointegration analysis) on the basis of the annual time series from 1995 to 2012.
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Cummins, J. David, and Gary L. Griepentrog. "Forecasting automobile insurance paid claim costs using econometric and ARIMA models." International Journal of Forecasting 1, no. 3 (1985): 203–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(85)90003-2.
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Dimian, Gina Cristina, Mirela Ionela Aceleanu, Bogdan Vasile Ileanu, and Andreea Claudia Șerban. "UNEMPLOYMENT AND SECTORAL COMPETITIVENESS IN SOUTHERN EUROPEAN UNION COUNTRIES. FACTS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS." Journal of Business Economics and Management 19, no. 3 (November 19, 2018): 474–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2018.6581.
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This article addresses the problem of the main factors driving sectoral unemployment in the Mediterranean countries most affected by this phenomenon. The choice of the four countries (Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal) relies on the fact that they are dealing with the highest unemployment rates in the European Union and a certain typology of the economic structure. The originality of our research is offered by its direction, less tackled until now, namely the focus on the particularities of the economic sectors, trying to capture differences between them. The importance and the impact of the results are supported by the methods used to produce them, indicators and econometric models that are on trend and bring extra information to available studies. Descriptive statistics and mismatch indexes are used to outline the economic and labour market structure, while the econometric models built on panel data capture the impact of factors such as GVA growth, specialization and labour market mismatches on the unemployment rate at six economic sectors level. Our paper makes three contributions to the literature. First, we have demonstrated that agriculture is the sector of activity less sensitive to output fluctuations in terms of unemployment and can become a buffer for the jobless in times of recessions. Second, we have proved that industry, as a whole, is highly responsive to economic developments and bad specialization could worsen unemployment situation in this sector. Third, we showed that educational mismatches have a significant impact on unemployment in those sectors of activity that employ low educated workforce.
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Hurina, O., V. Krylenko, and I. Novikov. "Forecasting the Main Indicators of Insurance Companies." Modern Economics 25, no. 1 (February 23, 2021): 52–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.31521/modecon.v25(2021)-08.
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Abstract. Introduction. Econometric and adaptive models make it possible to predict financial and economic indicators in the short and long term. The most common forecasting models are linear trend models, adaptive Brown, Holt, Holt-Winters, Box-Jenkins, autoregressive and other models. It has been proved that the use of adaptive forecasting models becomes especially relevant in the context of constant changes in the external environment, instability of the economic and political situation. Purpose. The purpose of this article is to substantiate the expediency of using forecasting methods when planning the development of the insurance market and to implement the procedure for forecasting the main indicators of its development using modern methods and techniques. Results. Improving the efficiency of the insurance market is facilitated by the correct organization of its planning and the direct implementation of the planned indicators. Optimality of planning is determined by the degree to which the accuracy of the predicted level of planned indicators is achieved. The methodology and results of the forecast of insurance payments made for the near future can be taken as a basis for drawing up current and strategic plans of insurance companies. Conclusions. It has been established that one of the barriers to the effective development of the insurance market in general and insurance companies in particular is the insufficient level of planning of their activities, especially in terms of forecasting key indicators. The procedure for forecasting the receipt of insurance payments was implemented using modern forecasting methods. The effectiveness of the Brown’s adaptive model for short-term planning of insurance premiums is proved. The proposed model was tested for adequacy, on its basis, recommendations were developed for further application in the practice of insurance companies. Keywords: insurance; insurance market; planning; forecasting; econometric model; adaptive model; trend extrapolation.
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Úbeda, Miquel, M. Àngels Cabasés, Malena Sabaté, and Tanja Strecker. "The Deterioration of the Spanish Youth Labour Market (1985–2015): An Interdisciplinary Case Study." YOUNG 28, no. 5 (May 9, 2020): 544–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1103308820914838.
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The Spanish labour market is notorious for its high unemployment rate and its exceptionally high youth unemployment rate, job insecurity, impermanence and underemployment. This article presents a systematic analysis of the Spanish labour market’s deterioration process, in particular focusing on the youth labour market. It combines historic reviews with statistical analyses of data from official sources, like the Continuous Sample of Working Lives (CSWL), through different econometric models. The procedure consists of three steps: (a) first, a historical estimation to facilitate the systematic selection of the statistics, in this case contracts taken from a large sample of the Spanish workforce over the period 1985–2015; (b) econometric modelling of relevant indicators, in this case the average annual income, daily working hours and average length of contract; and (c) an analysis of the identified trends and conjuncture regarding precarious work and gender inequality.
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Poterba, James M. "AN INTERVIEW WITH MARTIN FELDSTEIN." Macroeconomic Dynamics 7, no. 2 (January 16, 2003): 291–312. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100502020151.
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Martin Feldstein is one of the most influential empirical economists of the late twentieth century. In the 1960's, as a research fellow at Oxford University, where he earned a D.Phil. in Economics, he pioneered the empirical analysis of production functions for hospitals and for other health care providers. In the process, he helped to launch the modern field of health economics. In the 1970's, shortly after moving from Oxford to Harvard, his research expanded from health economics to a broader range of social insurance programs, particularly Social Security and unemployment insurance. He developed theoretical models for analyzing how these programs affected the incentives facing households and firms, and then marshaled empirical evidence to document the substantive importance of these program-induced distortions. Feldstein's work sparked an active public policy debate on the economic effects of these programs, and this debate continues to the present day.Feldstein was one of the first to use household-level data from surveys and administrative records to analyze how taxes and government transfer programs affect household behavior. His research contributions, and his pedagogical role in training dozens of graduate students, accelerated the diffusion of new empirical strategies in the field of applied economics. Researchers in public finance still make widespread use of the TAXSIM computer model, a household-level program for computing tax liabilities, which Feldstein began to build during the 1970's.In the early 1980's, Feldstein spent two years as the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers. During that time, he warned frequently of the long-term economic costs of large budget deficits, even though this was a very unpopular view on political grounds. Feldstein's time in Washington expanded his interests still further, to encompass international economic policy issues as well as domestic questions. When he returned to Harvard and the NBER in the mid-1980's, Feldstein directed several projects on the sources of, and policy responses to, international economic crises.Throughout the late 1980's and early 1990's, Feldstein continued to make central contributions to his primary field of public finance. In a series of papers on how taxable income responds to changes in marginal tax rates, Feldstein developed a new framework for evaluating the efficiency cost of income taxation. These papers also contributed in a very significant way to the debate on how congressional tax analysts should compute the revenue effects of tax reforms. He also continued his long-standing interest in social insurance policy. His 1995 Ely Lecture to the American Economic Association was a clarion call drawing economic researchers to the analysis of Social Security reform proposals, and it anticipated the very active policy debate of the last half decade.Feldstein has been actively involved in both undergraduate and graduate teaching during his 35 years on the Harvard faculty. He has served on the dissertation committees of more than 60 graduate students, and he has trained many of the current leaders in the field of public economics. He currently directs and lectures in Harvard's Principles of Economics course, which is the largest undergraduate course at Harvard.Martin Feldstein has made landmark contributions in many subfields of applied economics. He has also played a critical role in shaping the direction of economic research more generally in his position as President of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a post he has held since 1977. Feldstein has made the NBER a clearinghouse for a wide range of current policy-relevant economic research, and he has directed numerous research projects that have generated important new economic insights. During Feldstein's tenure as NBER president, yellow-covered NBER working papers and, increasingly, the NBER internet site, www.nber.org, have become standard starting points for researchers investigating many topics in applied economics.In 1977, Martin Feldstein received the John Bates Clark Medal from the American Economic Association, recognizing him as the outstanding economist under the age of 40. Twenty-five years later, in 2002, he was elected president of that association.This interview was conducted at Martin Feldstein's office at the NBER. One wall of the small conference room in which we worked is decorated with original drawings of some of the political cartoons that lampooned Feldstein's deficit worries during his time at the Council of Economic Advisers. Outside the conference room, a glass case contains literally hundreds of books that are the results of NBER research studies dating back to 1920. The interview follows a loose chronological pattern.
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Urbanos-Garrido, Rosa María, and Beatriz González López-Valcárcel. "Desempleo y salud: Un análisis de la repercusión de la crisis económica sobre la salud de los españoles." Studies of Applied Economics 31, no. 2 (March 14, 2020): 303. http://dx.doi.org/10.25115/eea.v31i2.3284.
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In this paper we explore the consequences of the economic crisis on the Spanish adult health with special emphasis on the effects of unemployment. We use the conceptual model of Dahlgren and Whitehead. We analyze longitudinal microdata from the Survey of Living Conditions (ECV) 2006-2011 and cross-sectional microdata from the National Health Survey of Spain (ENSE) 2011-12, using econometric models to explain the level of physical and mental health of individuals and their changes when varying income and employment status. Our analysis of ECV concludes that while the housing conditions and needs met proxies significantly influence self-assessed health, neither variations in individual income or the shift from employment to unemployment have a significant influence. Models based on data from the ENSE, however, conclude that after controlling for other determinants of health, unemployment has a significant negative impact on physical and mental health, and that impact is stronger the longer unemployment lasts.
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Briceño, Hernán Ricardo, and Javier Perote. "Determinants of the Public Debt in the Eurozone and Its Sustainability Amid the Covid-19 Pandemic." Sustainability 12, no. 16 (August 11, 2020): 6456. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12166456.
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Different economic studies have been concentrated on specific and/or isolated factors to explain public debt evolution. In this article we have developed an integrated viewpoint based on financial, social and governance or institutional factors. Under our dynamic econometric assessment for the last two decades (i.e., since the Euro currency inception), economic growth, interest rate, life expectancy at birth, unemployment, government effectiveness and the last sovereign debt crisis have resulted as being the major determinants of its evolution. Public debt sustainability must be assessed continuously with the aim to discuss technical recommendations to maintain it at an even rate, to allow sustainable economic growth and better life standards, in the context of life expectancy increasing and stable governance and institutional conditions. Undoubtedly, the Covid-19 pandemic leads more damaged Eurozone countries with negative real economic growth and high unemployment rates to increase dramatically their current public debts, to such an extent that they could fall into unsustainable paths. Therefore, substantial reforms in European pension and unemployment insurance systems are necessary conditions to ensure public debt sustainability amid Covid-19 pandemic.
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Mohammadi, Hassan, and Daniel P. Rich. "Dynamics of Unemployment Insurance Claims: An Application of ARIMA-GARCH Models." Atlantic Economic Journal 41, no. 4 (October 4, 2013): 413–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11293-013-9393-z.
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Corak, Miles. "Is Unemployment Insurance Addictive? Evidence from the Benefit Durations of Repeat Users." ILR Review 47, no. 1 (October 1993): 62–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/001979399304700105.
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The author finds evidence that the past occurrence of a spell of insured unemployment lengthens the duration of future spells. Descriptive statistics from Canadian administrative data covering mid-1971 to early 1990 suggest that unemployment insurance (UI) claimants tend to spend a longer and longer time collecting benefits with each additional claim they make. This finding contradicts the implication of static neoclassical models that successive UI spells should be of the same length. The author hypothesizes that the stigma attached to receiving unemployment benefits erodes with each new UI claim an individual files.
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Bellaqa, Bashkim. "Labour Market Dynamics and Labour Market Policies – Case Study Kosovo." European Scientific Journal, ESJ 14, no. 22 (August 31, 2018): 290. http://dx.doi.org/10.19044/esj.2018.v14n22p290.
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Over the last decades, in Kosovo and in many Western Balkan countries, there have been processes of political, economic and social transformations. The object of this study was to analyse the linear trends, employment and unemployment correlation through Gross Domestic Production (GDP) and its growth, Consumer Prices Index (CPI), Import and the role of employment policies in Kosovo. The methods used for this study were: linear econometric models, correlation, comparative methods ect. Although there have been improvements in socio-economic indicators in Kosovo, the economy still has a higher unemployment rate compared to the countries of the region. The approach of linear relationships for econometric models is usually preferred to research the socio-economic situation and dynamics of labour market trends. Labour market analysis is a measurement unit and assesses the economic forces and demographics such as education and trainings on the one hand and employment on the other. According to the results conducted from the quantitative study, it turns out that the employment variable in Kosovo has a complex relationship with a set of other parameters where GDP and GDP change carries the main weight, etc.
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Tendziagolskytė, Dalia, and Rimantas Rudzkis. "Econometric Modelling of Lithuanian Labour Market." Lietuvos statistikos darbai 53, no. 1 (December 20, 2014): 40–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2014.13893.
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Lithuanian labour market indicators, such as the total number of employees, the number of employees in the private and public sectors, the number of the unemployed, labour force, employment and unemployment rates, the relative number of employees, average monthly gross income are analysed in the paper. The experience of foreign countries and Lithuania in creating labour market models and econometric methodology has been examined. As a result, a new model of the Lithuanian labour market is produced, comprising five regressive equations, which are part of the recursive SVAR model, and four identities, which are part of balance equations. According to the logic of economic and other research, relevant connections in the economy have been specified, unknown parameters of equations have been estimated. Finally, forecasts of endogenous indicators for 2014 have been provided, and results have been compared with the projections of the main labour market indicators for 2014−2017, published by the Ministry of Finance. Calculations have been made using a statistical package Gretl.
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Misini, Shkumbin, and Bashkim Mustafa. "The relationship between economic growth, unemployment and poverty." Corporate Governance and Organizational Behavior Review 6, no. 4 (2022): 57–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.22495/cgobrv6i4p5.
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The independent variable in this paper will be nominal GDP in the context of economic growth, while the dependent variables in this study and analysis are unemployment and poverty. The paper provides secondary data from 2004–2019. Based on the results of Chuttoo (2020), the economic growth of 4% has an unemployment rate of 1%. Empirical findings of the study by Shah, Shabbir, and Parveen (2022) show that economic growth has led to the reduction of unemployment. The methodology of the work will take care of two econometric models: in Model 1 the economic growth within the GDP will be analyzed in relation to unemployment, and in Model 2 the nominal GDP growth in relation to poverty will be analyzed. In the paper, we will have graph analysis, descriptive statistics, correlations, as well as linear regressions. The empirical findings of the study have shown that the economic growth within the nominal GDP has a negative relationship to unemployment and poverty in Kosovo, but the effect of this growth has not affected the reduction of the rate of unemployment and poverty in Kosovo
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Doniger, Cynthia L., and Desmond Toohey. "These Caps Spilleth Over: Equilibrium Effects of Unemployment Insurance." Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022, no. 074 (November 4, 2022): 1–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/feds.2022.074.
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The design of US unemployment insurance (UI) policy--which features benefits assigned as a percentage of past wages up to a cap--engenders tests for spillovers from policy variation to workers who are not directly treated. We test for and find a pattern of spillovers from state-level UI policy changes that cannot be neatly reconciled with workhorse or cutting-edge models of UI spillovers. Instead, we show that the documented pattern conforms with the predictions of a canonical model of information frictions: wage posting with random search. Taken together, our results provide novel evidence of quantitatively- and policy-relevant information frictions in this market. Moreover, our estimates suggest that aggregate unemployment of insured individuals would decrease if the replacement rate were increased while holding the cap constant.
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Guedes, Gilvan, Rodrigo Raad, and Lucélia Raad. "Welfare Consequences of Persistent Climate Prediction Errors on Insurance Markets against Natural Hazards." Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo) 49, no. 2 (April 2019): 235–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0101-41614922grl.
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Abstract This paper studies the welfare consequences of the friction between two groups, those with and those without rational expectations, in an incomplete insurance market. We validate this friction empirically and test the existence of additional heterogeneity in the probability of belonging to the group which makes persistent mistakes on the anticipation of climate events using econometric models. The econometric models further suggest that the probability of belonging to this group varies significantly by sociodemographic attributes of respondents and by the geophysical attributes of their places of residence. Based on this evidence, we develop a two-period model of private insurance under uncertainty with endogenous prices. By including a central planner providing a technology for access to accurate information, our example illustrates that public intervention (via taxation) would only be feasible if public expenditure in the provision of this technology did not exceed 9.188% of the aggregate income earned by agents with inaccurate expectations.
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Kalbasi Anaraki, Nahid. "Does Dodd Frank Act Affect Macroeconomic Variables?" Journal of Global Economy 12, no. 2 (June 25, 2016): 93–100. http://dx.doi.org/10.1956/jge.v12i2.434.
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The introduction of Dodd Frank Act has induced lots of controversy among economists on its macroeconomic outcomes; though some see it is a necessary piece of legislation, which can avoid future financial crisis, many think it is detrimental to private investment and employment. To see how the Act affect real macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth, investment, and unemployment rate, this study implements econometric models with time series data over the period of 1990-2015 to estimate how financial regulations in general and Dodd Frank Act in particular affects the above-mentioned variables. The results of this study suggest that the Act has a negative significant impact on GDP growth, private investment, and unemployment rate. Â Â Â
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Yamaka, Woraphon, and Sukrit Thongkairat. "A Mixed Copula-Based Vector Autoregressive Model for Econometric Analysis." International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems 28, Supp01 (August 28, 2020): 113–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218488520400103.
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In many practical applications, the dynamics of different quantities is reasonably well described by linear equations. In economics, such linear dynamical models are known as vector autoregressive (VAR) models. These linear models are, however, only approximate. The deviations of the actual value of each quantity from the predictions of the linear model are usually well described by normal or Student-t distributions. To complete the description of the joint distribution of all these deviations, we need to supplement these marginal distributions with the information about the corresponding copula. To describe this dependence, in the past, researchers followed the usual idea of trying copulas from several standard families: Gaussian, Student, Clayton, Frank, Gumbel, and Joe families. To get a better description, we propose to also use convex combinations of copulas from different families; such convex combinations are known as mixed copulas. On the example of the dynamics of US macroeconomic data, including GDP, unemployment, consumer price index, and the real effective exchange rate, we show that mixed copulas indeed lead to a better description of the actual data. Specifically, it turns out that the best description is obtained if we use a convex combination of Student and Frank copulas.
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Krupa, Thomas, Kirils Farbarzevics, and Bassam Salame. "INVESTMENT EFFICIENCY OF LIFE INSURANCE COMPANIES IN GERMANY: APPLICATION OF A TWO-STAGE SBM." Współczesna Gospodarka 10, no. 1 (32) (March 31, 2019): 79–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.26881/wg.2019.1.08.
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Purpose – To prove the robustness of the efficiency-measuring model against potentially system-relevant disturbances to company variables such as SIZE, ROA, solvency and organizational form.
Methodology – In the first stage, the established model is applied using the SBM to measure insurance efficiency. The underlying data sets are from the twenty biggest life insurance companies (2008-2017) in Germany. In the second stage, the established model is examined for its robustness against disturbance variables. Several disturbance variables are introduced individually to the system and examined for their influence by three econometric methods, Tobit regression, OLS and the fixed-effect model. This approach allows a comparative analysis of the results with respect to the systemic relevance of every added variable. In the end, the accuracy of the second stage is compared through the Spearman test.
Findings – The comparative analysis of all three econometric techniques brought ROA as an efficiency-influencing variable. Furthermore, both proved econometric models Tobit and OLS are SBM-suitable with cross-sectional data. Further evidence for SBM compatibility are found for Tobit and the fixed-effect model with panel data.
JEL classification: C510, C520
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Ordaz, Jose Antonio, Maria Del Carmen Melgar, and M. Kazim Khan. "An Analysis of Spanish Accidents in Automobile Insurance: The Use of the Probit Model and the Theoretical Potential of Other Econometric Tools." Equilibrium 6, no. 3 (September 30, 2011): 117–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.12775/equil2011.024.
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Automobile insurance is one of the main pillars of the entire insurance industry in the developed economies. Knowing as much as possible about the factors related to the accidents is an essential issue for the insurance companies so that they may improve their levels of efficiency. Therefore, in this paper we focus on studying the most relevant variables that help explain the registration of claims in the automobile insurance sector. For this purpose, we fit a probit model specification using a database from a Spanish insurance company. Our research points out the significance of certain variables, such as the policyholders’ driving experience, their region of residence as well as their levels of insurance coverage, towards the likelihood of registering an insurance claim. However, probit analysis represents only one of the multiple perspectives which we can consider to examine the question of accidents and their reporting. Very briefly, we also discuss the utility of zero-inflated count data models to study the number of accidents declared by policyholders. Finally, we point out the possibilities that thinned models could offer for this type of research.
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PETRUSHKA, Olena. "Foreign experience of financial support of citizens in case of unemployment." Economics. Finances. Law, no. 10 (October 26, 2020): 23–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.37634/efp.2020.10.4.
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Introduction. Unemployment, as one of the world's economic problems today, significantly affects the material, social and professional level of the working population. Payment of unemployment benefits is one of the measures of social support of citizens by the state. Such social benefits are twofold, as on the one hand they replace lost earnings, and on the other one they will be perceived by the state regulation of labor resources. The purpose of the paper is to study and borrow positive experience of social insurance in case of unemployment in different countries of the world in accordance with their affiliation to labor market models and employment promotion. Results. The American Unemployment Insurance System is formed solely by employers' contributions (except in 3 states where employees also pay contributions) and provides benefits for 26 weeks. Each state has its own social security program, according to which contributions are formed and unemployment benefits are paid. If we talk about the European model of employment, its characteristic feature is that it is focused on reducing employment by increasing productivity and increasing the income level of working citizens. The Swedish model of social insurance in the event of unemployment is characterized by an active employment policy, in particular, preference is given to vocational training and professional development. In addition, the emphasis is on providing employment by creating jobs in the public sector with average and satisfactory working and pay conditions. The Japanese model of employment incentives has a number of characteristic features: the country has a widespread system of lifelong employment; the amount of remuneration for work is set depending on the length of service of the employee, his age and marital status; trade unions (unions) are not created on a sectoral basis, but directly at the level of economic entities. Conclusion. Building a multi-level social insurance system enables insured persons to receive high-level social benefits, insurers to create favorable working conditions and select highly qualified workers, and insurers to regulate the labor market and reduce unemployment.
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Irewole, Oluwasefunmi Eunice. "INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIP: A DYNAMIC REPORT OF NIGERIA AND MEXICO IN THE PERSPECTIVE OF PHILLIPS CURVE FROM 1991-2016." International Journal of New Economics and Social Sciences 10, no. 2 (December 31, 2019): 11–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0013.8085.
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This research study investigated the relationship between unemployment and inflation in Nigeria and Mexico from 1991-2016. Secondary data were used to gather data from the World Bank database, Central Bank of Nigeria and Bank of Mexico. In order to determine the set objective, OLS and simple regression analysis of the econometric model were used. The models specified inflation as function unemployment, money supply % GDP, total Gross Formation Products. Based on the above test carried out, the study finds out that: Inflation significantly has little impact on unemployment in Nigeria both in the long – run and short – run within the period under review. In Mexico, there is actually no significant relationship between unemployment and inflation because when inflation is high, unemployment in Mexico is also high. The study shows that investors have an inverse relationship with unemployment in Mexico. There is also an inverse relationship between inflation and GDP in Mexico and Nigeria. And in regard to the findings above the study recommends that the government should use discretionary policy that would reduce unemployment by boosting the level of investment and maintaining stability in the money sup-ply as it had a positive impact on Inflation in the long run. Friedman is of the view that the increase in government spending and the rate at which economy borrows, the higher the inflation.
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Edrus, Robiaatul Adawiah, Zailan Siri, Mohd Azmi Haron, Muhammad Aslam Mohd Safari, and Mohammed K. A. Kaabar. "Econometric Analysis of Macroeconomic to Age-Specific Mortality Rate in Malaysia: Evidence from Panel Data." Journal of Mathematics 2022 (February 18, 2022): 1–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/8268177.
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Human mortality is unanticipated and unavoidable, particularly in light of the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Insurance companies, actuaries, financial institutions, demographers, and the government may suffer catastrophic losses as a result of imprecise mortality estimates. Understanding the factors that contribute to mortality at the population level can help the government improve its efforts to promote health and reduce health inequalities. Consequently, the present study utilizes an econometrics model to estimate Malaysia’s mortality rate, with macroeconomic factors as explanatory variables. The present study employed the unemployment rate, pension liabilities, gross domestic product, education expenditure, and healthcare expenditure as explanatory variables. The empirical results imply that the fixed effects model is feasible when using panel data across specific age groups. Moreover, the fixed effects model is devoid of cross-sectional dependency, heteroscedasticity, and serial correlation. The findings reveal that the unemployment rate, gross domestic product, and education expenditure all have a significant influence on the mortality rate. However, pension liabilities and health expenditure have an insignificant relationship with the mortality rate. The fixed effects model is demonstrated to be a robust model that fits the Malaysian scenario with an R-squared of approximately 84.69%. The present study is novel due to the fact that the model established between explanatory variables and the mortality rate shows a significant relationship, which can be helpful in forecasting the mortality at population level as a preparation for the post-COVID-19 mortality. The present study aims to contribute to the development of an effective support mechanism by rectifying Malaysia’s socioeconomic inequalities in order to mitigate the COVID-19 increase in mortality rate. Therefore, the Malaysian government is strongly encouraged to examine its expenditure on education and gross domestic product in order to improve the mortality rate, particularly among the adult and older population.
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Ramzan, Muhammad. "Impact of Inflation and Unemployment on Economic Growth of Pakistan." European Journal of Business and Management Research 6, no. 4 (August 17, 2021): 282–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.24018/ejbmr.2021.6.4.993.
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This paper aims to identify the influence of inflation and unemployment on the economic growth of the country. This study recommends some essential policies about unemployment and inflation in the economic growth of Pakistan. In this study, the “Ordinary Least Square (OLS)” method is used with different diagnostic tests for determining the fitness of data for the investigation; and the data is collected from 1980 to 2018. The econometric results suggest that the time series is stationary because the values of t-statistic are more than t-tab and sig value is also significant. The error term on ADF is significant and that ensures that there is long term association. The results of ECM indicate that inflation and unemployment are away from the value of equilibrium. The results of multiple linear regression models indicate that inflation and unemployment are statistically insignificant, and the overall model is also statistically insignificant. There is no multicollinearity and there is no heteroscedasticity as per White test. By running the Ramsay Reset test, the researcher concludes that the model is not specified because the sig value of the t-test and f-test is significant.
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Shpak, Nestor, Solomiya Ohinok, Ihor Kulyniak, Włodzimierz Sroka, Yuriy Fedun, Romualdas Ginevičius, and Joanna Cygler. "CO2 Emissions and Macroeconomic Indicators: Analysis of the Most Polluted Regions in the World." Energies 15, no. 8 (April 15, 2022): 2928. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en15082928.
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There is no sector of the economy that is not dependent on the state of development of the energy sector. This sector produces a significant share of global CO2 emissions. Harmful CO2 emissions and greenhouse gas emissions accelerate global warming. Therefore, more and more countries are adopting a strategy for the transition to carbon-neutral energy. However, energy independence and economic competitiveness are closely linked. One cannot analyze them separately. Given these facts, we focused on conducting an econometric study of the impact of key macroeconomic indicators on the level of CO2 emissions into the air in the United States and the Asia-Pacific region as the regions with the largest CO2 emissions. The modeling was carried out using the method of a correlation–regression analysis with the subsequent construction of econometric models. The quality of the built econometric models was checked using the coefficient of determination and Fisher’s criterion. The sample of statistics was formed from all the available values of the World Bank’s annual indicators for the period 1970–2020. The findings achieved showed that: (i) The results of our study confirmed the dependence of CO2 emissions on macroeconomic factors such as GDP, exports and imports, the rate of inflation, and unemployment. It allows the governments of many countries to use research findings to diagnose, monitor, and forecast macroeconomic outcomes to reduce or maintain allowable CO2 emissions. (ii) Identifying and assessing economic losses from environmental pollution by CO2 emissions using econometric models will allow to ensure effective public environmental and economic policies aimed at reducing harmful CO2 emissions into the air. It may be regarded as the practical importance of our study.
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Dzhunkeev, Urmat. "Modelling the impact of digital technologies on the unemployment rate in Russia." Moscow University Economics Bulletin, no. 6 (December 30, 2021): 186–201. http://dx.doi.org/10.38050/0130010520216.9.
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The paper examines labor market patterns in the light of digital economy development. The aim is to analyze labor market conjuncture in terms of registered unemployment dynamics. The degree of digital economy development is assessed through three indicators: the share of organizations using (1) the Internet, (2) local area networks, (3) number of personal computers per 100 employees. In addition to technological development indicators, the article also makes account of certain demographic factors. Since early 2000s, the degree of Internet penetration in organizations has doubled, while the number of computers increased threefold. The share of elderly population and life expectancy rate have increased by 5 percent and 7 years respectively. Drawing on econometric panel data models regarding federal districts in Russia for 2003–2019, the author provides the following findings. First, the proliferation of technological advances reduces unemployment rate. Second, an increase in the proportion of population above working age and life expectancy entails the reduction in unemployment rate. Third, combined effect of technological and demographic factors increases unemployment rate. The magnitude of the reduction exceeds the degree of increase in the unemployment rate due to technological advances. Thus, technological unemployment is more likely a theoretical possibility. Fourth, the determinants taken into consideration explain from 38 to 43 percent of unemployment rate change. The proposed approach can be applied in designing regulatory policies regarding employment with regard to the implementation of digital technologies in organizations and population aging in Russia’s regions.
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Stamatiou, Pavlos, and Nikolaos Dritsakis. "The Effects of FDI on Greek Economy: An Empirical Analysis." International Journal of Accounting and Finance Studies 2, no. 2 (July 23, 2019): p39. http://dx.doi.org/10.22158/ijafs.v2n2p39.
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This paper investigates the effect of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on economic growth in Greece, within a framework that also accounts unemployment rate, using annual data covering the period 1970 to 2017. Several econometric models are applied including the ARDL bound test approach for cointegration as well as ECM-ARDL model for causality. The results of the study confirm the existence of a long run relationship among the examined variables. The Granger causality results indicated a strong unidirectional causality between economic development and foreign direct investments with direction from economic development to foreign direct investments. Finally, the variance decomposition method and the impulse response functions are used to test the strength of causality between the variables. The results of the study offer new perspectives and insight for new policies for sustainable economic development, increasing investments and reducing unemployment.
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Demidova, O. A., and E. A. Timofeeva. "Spatial aspects of wage curve estimation in Russia." Journal of the New Economic Association 51, no. 3 (2021): 69–101. http://dx.doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2021-51-3-4.
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The wage curve is traditionally defined as the negative relationship between wages and unemployment rates (taking into account various control variables). It was empirically shown that the wage curve exists in some countries, including Russia. However, usually in such studies with data for the Russian regions, the mutual influence of Russian regions is not taken into account. This could create the problem of omitted variable bias. In this paper, we took into account the corresponding impact using spatial-econometric models and gave a detailed interpretation of the results. The estimate of the parameter reflecting the effect of unemployment on wages in the model without spatial effects is almost twice the corresponding estimate in the models where these effects are taken into account. According to panel data for 2005–2018 for 81 regions we estimated the partial marginal effects of changes in unemployment in one region on wages in the other regions. Similar calculations were made for the other variables. Using partial marginal effects, we found for each region: 1) the regions most affected by this one, 2) the regions, changes in which will most likely affect the selected one. This is important, for example, for assessing consequences of government programs etc
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Antipina, O. N., and A. D. Krivitskaya. "Impact Assessment of Macroeconomic Indicators on Happiness Level." Zhurnal Economicheskoj Teorii 17, no. 4 (2020): 760–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.31063/2073-6517/2020.17-4.1.
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This paper studies the effects of objective macroeconomic indicators on measures of subjective well-being. This issue is central to the economics of happiness as a modern academic research discipline. The article provides an econometric approach to identifying the impact of changes in macroeconomic indicators on the reported level of happiness. We used models on panel data for 163 countries for the period from 2005 to 2019. The results of modeling showed that GDP per capita has a significant positive effect while unemployment and inflation, a significant negative effect on happiness. Our quantitative results show that unemployment depresses the reported level of happiness more than inflation does. Our research complements a number of macroeconomic studies in the field of public and subjective well-being: it focuses on links between the reported level of happiness and GDP per capita and determines social and economic costs of unemployment and inflation. These studies are of particular importance in the context of digitalization of the economy and the negative consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.