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1
Bradley, Steve, and Rob Crouchley. "The effects of test scores and truancy on youth unemployment and inactivity: a simultaneous equations approach." Empirical Economics 59, no. 4 (April 16, 2019): 1799–831. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00181-019-01691-8.
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Abstract We analyse the relationships between test scores, truancy and labour market outcomes for youths. Our econometric approach enables us to disentangle the observable direct and indirect effects of truancy and test scores on the risk of unemployment or ‘Not in Education, Employment or Training’ (NEET) from their unobserved effects. Using data for England and Wales, we show that models of youth unemployment and NEET that ignore the correlation between the unobservable determinants of test scores and truancy will lead to misleading inference about the strength of their effects. Truancy has an indirect observed effect on labour market outcomes via its effect on test scores, and a weak direct effect. The unobserved component of truancy has a direct effect on labour market outcomes. Test scores have a direct effect on those outcomes, but also mitigate the detrimental effects of truancy. Our analysis raises important implications for education policy.
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Aurachman, Rio. "Model Matematika Dampak Industri 4.0 terhadap Ketenagakerjaan Menggunakan Pendekatan Sistem." Jurnal Optimasi Sistem Industri 18, no. 1 (May 16, 2019): 14. http://dx.doi.org/10.25077/josi.v18.n1.p14-24.2019.
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The objective of this research was to provide a mathematical model that can explain the relationship between the unemployment rate, openness to technology, and people development initiatives to overcome technology development. These research discussions were carried out in the context of predicted technological developments related to Industry 4.0 which caused the loss of several jobs and formed new business models that will provide new jobs. The method used is to using system approach so that mathematical modeling can be obtained from Influence Diagrams which have been designed in previous research. Mathematical models illustrate that openness to technology is directly proportional to the number of unemployed. And the unemployment rate is inversely proportional to the level of human resource development. Development of human resources that are too large without being carried out with openness and technological progress, can also cause unemployment. This mathematical model can be used as a decision maker to understand and establish appropriate policies in the face of this Industry 4.0 change.
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Parajuli, Jitendra, and Kingsley E. Haynes. "Panel Data Models of New Firm Formation in New England." REGION 4, no. 3 (October 20, 2017): 65. http://dx.doi.org/10.18335/region.v4i3.167.
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This study examines the impact of the determinants of new firm formation in New England at the county level from 1999 to 2009. Based on the Spatial Durbin panel model that accounts for spillover effects, it is found that population density and human capital positively affect single-unit firm births within a county and its neighbors. Population growth rate also exerts a significant positive impact on new firm formation, but most of the effect is from spatial spillovers. On the contrary, the ratio of large to small firm in terms of employment size and unemployment rate negatively influence single-unit firm births both within counties and among neighbors. However, there is no significant impact of local financial capital and personal income growth on new firm formation.
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UNGUREANU, Laura, Madalina CONSTANTINESCU, and Cristina POPÎRLAN. "Nonlinear Models Used to Analyze the Relation between Inflation and Unemployment." Journal of Advanced Research in Law and Economics 11, no. 2 (March 31, 2020): 667. http://dx.doi.org/10.14505/arle.v11.2(48).37.
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Many mathematical models have been developed in the last years in order to analyze economic phenomena and processes. Some of these models are optimization models, static or dynamic, while others are developed specially to study the evolution of economic phenomena. The topic of this paper is forecasting with nonlinear models. A few well-known nonlinear models are introduced, and their properties are discussed. The variety of nonlinear relationships is important both from the perspective of estimation and from the precision of forecasts in the medium and especially long term. Most nonlinear forecasting methods and all methods based on neural networks lead to predictions that have a better quality than the forecasts obtained by linear methods. The last section of this paper contains a detailed study of the relationship between inflation and unemployment and a numerical application with numerical data from Romania.
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Bennett, Davara Lee, Kate E. Mason, Daniela K. Schlüter, S. Wickham, Eric TC Lai, Alexandros Alexiou, Ben Barr, and David Taylor-Robinson. "Trends in inequalities in Children Looked After in England between 2004 and 2019: a local area ecological analysis." BMJ Open 10, no. 11 (November 2020): e041774. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-041774.
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ObjectiveTo assess trends in inequalities in Children Looked After (CLA) in England between 2004 and 2019, after controlling for unemployment, a marker of recession and risk factor for child maltreatment.DesignLongitudinal local area ecological analysis.Setting150 English upper-tier local authorities.ParticipantsChildren under the age of 18 years.Primary outcome measureThe annual age-standardised rate of children starting to be looked after (CLA rate) across English local authorities, grouped into quintiles based on their level of income deprivation. Slope indices of inequality were estimated using longitudinal segmented mixed-effects models, controlling for unemployment.ResultsSince 2008, there has been a precipitous rise in CLA rates and a marked widening of inequalities. Unemployment was associated with rising CLA rates: for each percentage point increase in unemployment rate, an estimated additional 9 children per 100 000 per year (95% CI 6 to 11) became looked after the following year. However, inequalities increased independently of the effect of unemployment. Between 2007 and 2019, after controlling for unemployment, the gap between the most and least deprived areas increased by 15 children per 100 000 per year (95% CI 4 to 26) relative to the 2004–2006 trend.ConclusionsThe dramatic increase in the rate of children starting to be looked after has been greater in poorer areas and in areas more deeply affected by recession. But trends in unemployment do not explain the decade-long rise in inequalities, suggesting that other socioeconomic factors, including rising child poverty and reduced spending on children’s services, may be fuelling inequalities. Policies to safely reduce the CLA rate should urgently address the social determinants of child health and well-being.
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Granitsa, Yu V. "Using distributed lag models to predict regional budget revenues." Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice 19, no. 6 (June 29, 2020): 1154–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.24891/ea.19.6.1154.
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Subject. The article addresses projections of regional budget revenues, using distributed lag models. Objectives. The purpose is to review economic and statistical tools that are suitable for the analysis of relationship between the revenues of the regional budget system and regional macroeconomic predictors. Methods. The study draws on statistical, constructive, economic and mathematical methods of analysis. Results. In models with quantitative variables obtained under the Almon method, the significant predictors in the forecasting of regional budget revenues are determined mainly by the balanced financial result, the consumer price index, which characterizes inflation processes in the region, and the unemployment rate being the key indicator of the labor market. Models with quantitative variables obtained through the Koyck transformation are characterized by a wider range of predictors, the composition of which is determined by the peculiarities of economic situation in regions. The two-year forecast provides the average lag obtained during the evaluation of the models. The exception is the impact of unemployment rate, which is characterized as long-term. Conclusions. To generate forecasts of budget parameters, the results of both the Koyck method and the Almon method should be considered, though the former is more promising.
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Wright, Liam, Jenny Head, and Stephen Jivraj. "Heterogeneity in the association between youth unemployment and mental health later in life: a quantile regression analysis of longitudinal data from English schoolchildren." BMJ Open 11, no. 7 (July 2021): e047997. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-047997.
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ObjectivesAn association between youth unemployment and poorer mental health later in life has been found in several countries. Little is known about whether this association is consistent across individuals or differs in strength. We adopt a quantile regression approach to explore heterogeneity in the association between youth unemployment and later mental health along the mental health distribution.DesignProspective longitudinal cohort of secondary schoolchildren in England followed from age 13/14 in 2004 to age 25 in 2015.SettingEngland, UK.Participants7707 participants interviewed at age 25.Primary and secondary outcome measures12-Item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) Likert score, a measure of minor psychiatric morbidity.ResultsYouth unemployment was related to worse mental health at age 25. The association was several times stronger at deciles of GHQ representing the poorest levels of mental health. This association was only partly attenuated when adjusting for confounding variables and for current employment status. In fully adjusted models not including current employment status, marginal effects at the 50th percentile were 0.73 (95% CI −0.05 to 1.54, b=0.11) points, while marginal effects at the 90th percentile were 3.76 (95% CI 1.82 to 5.83; b=0.58) points. The results were robust to different combinations of control variables.ConclusionsThere is heterogeneity in the longitudinal association between youth unemployment and mental health, with associations more pronounced at higher levels of psychological ill health. Youth unemployment may signal clinically relevant future psychological problems among some individuals.
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Sloggett, A., and H. Joshi. "Indicators of Deprivation in People and Places: Longitudinal Perspectives." Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 30, no. 6 (June 1998): 1055–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1068/a301055.
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The Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study of England and Wales is used to describe the prevalence in individuals, over time, of a set of variables commonly used in the construction of indicators of area deprivation. These variables are: housing tenure, car access, low skill, and unemployment. Over three censuses between 1971 and 1991, these states appear neither completely permanent nor entirely random. The picture is one of changing fortunes; many individuals temporarily disadvantaged revolving around a core of those experiencing more long-term disadvantage. This is especially true of unemployment. Used in multivariate models to predict health and deprivation outcomes in 1991, the individual characteristics from both 1971 and 1981 have stronger predictive power than ward scores on deprivation indicators. The relation between spatial mobility and the health and social outcomes appears favourable only for young adults.
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Bihun, Roman, Vasyl Lytvyn, and Nazar Oleksiv. "Analysis of the State of Territorial Communities to Model Their Socio-Economic Development." Vìsnik Nacìonalʹnogo unìversitetu "Lʹvìvsʹka polìtehnìka". Serìâ Ìnformacìjnì sistemi ta merežì 9 (June 10, 2021): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.23939/sisn2021.09.001.
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The problems of development of united territorial communities, in particular unemployment and economic problems, are considered. Communities, in most cases, lack the resources to address economic and other issues. Therefore, it is necessary to create self-sufficient communities in which there are enough financial instruments for their own development. The mathematical model of the decision support system for the development of territorial communities using the agro-industrial sector was considered. An important step in building a mathematical model of the agro-industrial complex is to take into account the specifics of agriculture. The article considers a mathematical model of linear multifactor regression, which describes the relationship between the number of resources expended and the volume of output. Since the processes of economics and production processes of agriculture are complex, it is difficult to describe them using only linear deterministic models. It is common for task variables to take some discrete values or values from a certain interval. This situation makes the search difficult.
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Simon, György. "The impact of the British model on economic growth." Ekonomski anali 52, no. 174-175 (2007): 45–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/eka0775045s.
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The paper is searching for an answer to the question how the British model affected economic development in its mother country, the United Kingdom. The statistical analysis, models of mathematical economics and econometric investigation make it probable to conclude that there was a substantial difference in success between the Thatcherite and the Blairite economic policies; the latter proved more effective. It is particularly remarkable that the Blairite model, connecting privatization with a successful employment policy, reduced unemployment and social sensitivity, has not only speeded up economic growth but also improved economic equilibrium, curtailing, among others, the budget deficit.
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Ray, Andrew, Tanya McCormack, and Helen Evans. "Value Added in English Schools." Education Finance and Policy 4, no. 4 (October 2009): 415–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/edfp.2009.4.4.415.
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Value-added indicators are now a central part of school accountability in England, and value-added information is routinely used in school improvement at both the national and the local levels. This article describes the value-added models that are being used in the academic year 2007–8 by schools, parents, school inspectors, and other professionals in local and national governments. The article outlines the development of value-added models in England following the introduction of national testing at ages seven, eleven, and fourteen in the 1990s. It describes the current “contextual” value-added models in detail, looking at the mathematical specification of the multilevel models and discussing the practical choice of explanatory attainment and contextual variables. The article also describes various uses of the value-added models, including in the published school achievement and attainment tables and in the RAISEonline system that supports schools in their self-evaluation and development planning and informs external inspection.
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Bezverbny, Vadim A., and Sergey V. Pronichkin. "MODELING OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC AND LABOR POTENTIAL OF THE RYAZAN REGION IN THE CONTEXT OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS." Scientific Review. Series 1. Economics and Law, no. 4 (2020): 29–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.26653/2076-4650-2020-4-03.
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The article is devoted to the assessment and forecasting of demographic indicators, gross regional product, employment, labor force and unemployment by industry in the Ryazan region until 2025-2050. The article analyzes the trends in the demographic development of the Ryazan region, including the dynamics of fertility, mortality and migration. The consequences of population aging and the peculiarities of changes in the age and sex structure of the region's population are also considered. To solve the problem of modeling and forecasting, economic and mathematical models have been developed that include the parameters of socio-economic development. The social component is based on a systematic approach to forecasting employment, depending on the anthropogenic load index, which takes into account life expectancy and standard of living, literacy of the population, crime rate, ecological state and other indicators of socio-economic development of the region. The economic component uses econometric analysis by types of economic activities in the Ryazan region, as well as time series analysis to predict employment in both the medium and short term. In terms of the labor market, the labor force is forecasted taking into account the socio-economic effect of hidden unemployment. In conclusion, forecasts are made about the dynamics of unemployment in the Ryazan region and the influence of demographic factors on the formation of the labor force.
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Gay, N. J., L. M. Hesketh, P. Morgan-Capner, and E. Miller. "Interpretation of serological surveillance data for measles using mathematical models: implications for vaccine strategy." Epidemiology and Infection 115, no. 1 (August 1995): 139–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0950268800058209.
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SummarySerological surveillance of measles immunity has been carried out in England since 1986/7. Results from sera collected in 1989–91 revealed that the proportion of school age children who were susceptible to measles was increasing, following the introduction of the measles, mumps and rubella vaccination programme in October 1988. Mathematical models are used to interpret these data and determine whether this increasing susceptibility is sufficient to allow a resurgence of disease from the low levels achieved by 1993. The models summarize serological profiles by a single parameter, the reproduction number R, which quantifies the level of herd immunity in the population. Results showed that there was cause for concern over the levels of susceptibility to measles, with an epidemic of over 100000 cases likely in 1995/6. These predictions are consistent with trends in the incidence and age distribution of measles and have enabled the planning of a major vaccination campaign.
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Schweikert, Jochen, and Markus Höchstötter. "Epidemiological spreading of mortgage default." International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis 12, no. 1 (February 4, 2019): 74–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijhma-05-2017-0047.
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Purpose This paper aims to introduce mathematical models to capture the spreading of epidemics to explain the expansion of mortgage default events in the USA. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the state of infectiousness and death to represent the subsequent steps of payment elinquency and default, respectively. As the local economic structure influences regional unemployment, which is a strong driver of mortgage default, the authors model interdependencies of regional mortgage default rates through employment conditions and vicinity. Findings Based on a large sample between 2000 and 2014 of loan-level data, the estimation of key parameters of the model is proposed. The model’s forecast accuracy shows an above-average performance compared to well-known approaches such as linear regression or logit models. Originality/value The key findings may be useful in understanding the dynamics of mortgage defaults and its spatial spreading.
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Grabusts, Peteris. "VISUALIZATION CAPABILITIES OF SIMULATION OF ECONOMIC PROCESSES." Latgale National Economy Research 1, no. 8 (October 24, 2016): 20. http://dx.doi.org/10.17770/lner2016vol1.8.1479.
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Educational experience shows that during the research process researchers perceive graphical information better than analytical relationships. Many economic courses operate with models that were previously available only in mathematics and physics disciplines. As a possible solution, there could be the use of the package Matlab Simulink in the realization of different algorithms both for engineering disciplines and economic studies. The article substantiates the usefulness of implementing the simulation models during the early stage of the research, when in parallel to acquiring analytical relations, simulation models may be introduced. The aim of the article is to show Matlab Simulink suitability for the purpose of visualizing simulation models of various economic disciplines. To reach the aim, the following research tasks have been set: identification of Matlab Simulink possibilities for simulation of economic processes; demonstrate visualization models on the basis of examples; visualization of time series model using Latgale unemployment rate data. The article presents examples of using simulation modeling in the economic research processes - optimal tax rate searching and time series application. Common research methods are used in this research: descriptive research method, statistical method, mathematical modeling.
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Johnston, Ron, Danny Dorling, Helena Tunstall, David Rossiter, Iain MacAllister, and Charles Pattie. "Locating the Altruistic Voter: Context, Egocentric Voting, and Support for the Conservative Party at the 1997 General Election in England and Wales." Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 32, no. 4 (April 2000): 673–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1068/a3294.
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Egocentric economic voting models are widely used in studies of voting behaviour in Great Britain: they suggest that people whose standard of living has risen recently as a perceived consequence of government policies are more likely to vote for the government's return to office than are those who blame government policies for a decline in their living standards. But many people whose living standards have increased vote against the government. Analyses reported here, using specially constructed bespoke neighbourhoods around the homes of respondents to the 1997 British Election Study, show that the latter group mainly live in areas of high local unemployment. This suggests a pattern of altruistic voting, of people who are prospering personally, but whose neighbours are not, voting against the incumbent government—a pattern confirmed by statistical analyses of both egocentric and sociotropic voting.
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A. Bogatenkov, S., V. A. Belevitin, and M. L. Khasanova. "Risk Management Based on Model of Competences when Introducing Innovative Information Technology." International Journal of Engineering & Technology 7, no. 4.38 (December 3, 2018): 78. http://dx.doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i4.38.24324.
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Economic expediency and attractiveness of life quality improving are accompanied by risks of increasing instability and possible collapse of the world system. Forecasts of the labour market change connected with automation of working places and mass unemployment cause concerns. The task of risk management in the personnel training system for introduction of new information technology is considered. The purpose of the research is development of the methodology based on the models of competences including requirements for safe application of information-measuring systems, as well as for an education level, work experience and permit-to-work documents in new conditions. A complex of new mathematical models, methods and technologies providing safety of the process of information technology introduction owing to the systemic approach to risk minimization is taken as a basis of the methodology. Invariant models provide economic effectiveness of processes of designing the system of safety and planning of educational paths. Models of personal paths of development and classes of competences provide didactic safety. Decision-making methods provide information, psychological, social and economic safety of the process of information technology introduction. The methodology is realised when introducing distance learning technologies in educational organisations of Chelyabinsk and the Chelyabinsk region.
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Williams, John R., and Roy M. Anderson. "Mathematical Models of the Transmission Dynamics of Human Immunodeficiency Virus in England and Wales: Mixing Between Different Risk Groups." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society) 157, no. 1 (1994): 69. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2983506.
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Couillard, D., F. D'amours, and G. Patry. "Étude comparative de trois modèles dynamiques de boues activées." Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 16, no. 3 (June 1, 1989): 400–407. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/l89-063.
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Three complete dynamic models are proposed to simulate the transient behaviour of the activated sludge process. The authors compare the responses obtained by simulation with datas found in the literature for the Norwich wastewater plant (England). A structured biological model with bi-substrate component (particles and soluble material) together with a nitrification model taking into account the organic nitrogen content of the affluent present the most realistic profils for the conditions studied. A sensitivity analysis reveals that a generalization of the model is possible if some parameters identified as critical are adjusted. Key words: mathematical model, activated sludge, water treatment, dynamic modelling, comparison of models.
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Loopstra, Rachel, Aaron Reeves, and Valerie Tarasuk. "The rise of hunger among low-income households: an analysis of the risks of food insecurity between 2004 and 2016 in a population-based study of UK adults." Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 73, no. 7 (April 29, 2019): 668–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/jech-2018-211194.
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BackgroundRising food bank use in the past decade in the UK raises questions about whether food insecurity has increased. Using the 2016 Food and You survey, we describe the magnitude and severity of the problem, examine characteristics associated with severity of food insecurity, and examine how vulnerability has changed among low-income households by comparing 2016 data to the 2004 Low Income Diet and Nutrition Survey.MethodsThe Food and You survey is a representative survey of adults living in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (n=3118). Generalised ordered logistic regression models were used to examine how socioeconomic characteristics related to severity of food insecurity. Coarsened exact matching was used to match respondents to respondents in the 2004 survey. Logistic regression models were used to examine if food insecurity rose between survey years.Results20.7% (95% CI 18.7% to 22.8%) of adults experienced food insecurity in 2016, and 2.72% (95% CI 2.07% to 3.58%) were severely food insecure. Younger age, non-white ethnicity, low education, disability, unemployment, and low income were all associated with food insecurity, but only the latter three characteristics were associated with severe food insecurity. Controlling for socioeconomic variables, the probability of low-income adults being food insecure rose from 27.7% (95% CI 24.8% to 30.6 %) in 2004 to 45.8% (95% CI 41.6% to 49.9%) in 2016. The rise was most pronounced for people with disabilities.ConclusionsFood insecurity affects economically deprived groups in the UK, but unemployment, disability and low income are characteristics specifically associated with severe food insecurity. Vulnerability to food insecurity has worsened among low-income adults since 2004, particularly among those with disabilities.
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Hinch, Martin, Jim Berry, William McGreal, and Terry Grissom. "LIBOR, base rate spreads and the UK housing market." International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis 8, no. 1 (March 2, 2015): 118–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijhma-04-2014-0009.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse how London Interbank Offered Rate Index (LIBOR) and the spread between LIBOR and the base rate of interest as set by the Bank of England (BoE) influences the variation in house prices in the UK. Design/methodology/approach – This paper uses monthly data over a long time series, since 1986, to investigate the relationships between house price and LIBOR. Data are drawn from several different sources to include housing, financial and macro-economic variables. The time series is sub-divided into a series of splines based on stages in the economic and property market cycle. Both value-based and percentage change models are developed. Findings – The results show that BoE base/LIBOR margin variable has a strong positive and significant effect on house price; however, the percentage change model infers a weaker and inverse relationship. The spline analysis re-emphasised the significance of the BoE base/LIBOR margin variable. Where variation between base rates and LIBOR is reduced, a significant positive effect can be observed in the average house price; however, where significant variation exists, the BoE base/LIBOR margin has little effect and LIBOR itself becomes a significant driver. Research limitations/implications – The results highlight that the predictive qualities of the BoE base/LIBOR margin, as the contribution of this margin to the explanation of house price, exceeds both the base rate and LIBOR variables individually. Also highlighted is the contribution of unemployment to the explanation of house price. In both the value and percentage change models, unemployment is shown as a negative and highly significant contributor. Originality/value – Previous papers have demonstrated the important linkage between house price and interest rates, the originality in this paper lies in examining the impact of LIBOR and the spreads between LIBOR and base rate as key variables influencing variation in UK house prices.
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De la Poza, E., L. Jódar, and A. Pricop. "Mathematical Modeling of the Propagation of Democratic Support of Extreme Ideologies in Spain: Causes, Effects, and Recommendations for Its Stop." Abstract and Applied Analysis 2013 (2013): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/729814.
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This paper deals with the construction of a discrete population mathematical model for the short-term forecast until January 2016 of the electoral support of extreme ideology parties in Spain. Firstly, the nontrivial concept of extreme ideology is stated. Then, the electoral register is split in three subpopulations: supporters of extremist parties, abstentions/blank voters, and supporters of establishment parties. The model takes into account the following variables: economy measured throughout the Spanish unemployment rate; demography quantified in terms of birth and death rates and emigration; sociopolitical situation measured by the Spanish poverty indicator, trust on the Government labor indicator (GLI), and the indicator of political trust. By considering the dynamic subpopulations transits built throughout data obtained from public and private prestigious institutions and sociopolitical analysis, a system of difference equations models the electoral population behavior in Spain allowing us to compute the expected electoral support in the time horizon of January 2016. Sensitivity analysis versus uncertain parameters is performed in order to improve the reliability of the model results.
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Bihun, Roman, Vasyl Lytvyn, and Nazar Oleksiv. "Mathematical modeling and analysis of the development of territorial communities." Technology audit and production reserves 3, no. 2(59) (June 30, 2021): 6–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.15587/2706-5448.2021.232788.
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This article examines the problems of the development of united territorial communities, in particular, unemployment and economic problems. The object of the research is the improvement of territorial communities on the example of the Lviv region (Ukraine). One of the most problematic areas is the fact that communities, in most cases, do not have enough funds to solve economic and other problems. The study uses the idea of the need to create self-sufficient communities with a sufficient number of financial instruments for their own development. The mathematical model of the decision support system for the development of territorial communities using the agro-industrial sector is also considered. An important step in building a mathematical model of the agro-industrial complex is taking into account the specifics of agriculture. The paper considers a mathematical model of linear and multifactorial regression, which describes the relationship between the amount of resources expended and the volume of output. Since the processes in the economy and production processes in agriculture are complex, it is difficult to describe them using only linear deterministic models. A common case is when task variables take some discrete values or values from a specific one. This situation makes the search difficult. To build a mathematical model for the development of territorial communities and study the fact that the development of agro-industry will improve the overall economic situation of the territorial community, correlation and regression analysis, the Farrar-Glauber method and the method of least squares are used. Thanks to the listed instruments, the statement is formed that the regulation of key factors of economic indicators of the agricultural sector can positively affect the growth of the economic component of territorial communities. The created mathematical model clearly forms the conclusion that agriculture in local communities can become an economic engine of community development, taking into account regional conditions.
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Austin, D. J., and R. M. Anderson. "Studies of antibiotic resistance within the patient, hospitals and the community using simple mathematical models." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences 354, no. 1384 (April 29, 1999): 721–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.1999.0425.
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The emergence of antibiotic resistance in a wide variety of important pathogens of humans presents a worldwide threat to public health. This paper describes recent work on the use of mathematical models of the emergence and spread of resistance bacteria, on scales ranging from within the patient, in hospitals and within communities of people. Model development starts within the treated patient, and pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic principles are melded within a framework that mirrors the interaction between bacterial population growth, drug treatment and the immunological responses targeted at the pathogen. The model helps identify areas in which more precise information is needed, particularly in the context of how drugs influence pathogen birth and death rates (pharmacodynamics). The next area addressed is the spread of multiply drug–resistant bacteria in hospital settings. Models of the transmission dynamics of the pathogen provide a framework for assessing the relative merits of different forms of intervention, and provide criteria for control or eradication. The model is applied to the spread of Vancomycin–resistant enterococci in an intensive care setting. This model framework is generalized to consider the spread of resistant organisms between hospitals. The model framework allows for heterogeneity in hospital size and highlights the importance of large hospitals in the maintenance of resistant organisms within a defined country. The spread of methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in England and Wales provides a template for model construction and analysis. The final section addresses the emergence and spread of resistant organisms in communities of people and the dependence on the intensity of selection as measured by the volume or rate of drug use. Model output is fitted to data for Finland and Iceland and conclusions drawn concerning the key factors determining the rate of spread and decay once drug pressure is relaxed.
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Perekrest, Vladimir T., and Igor V. Perekrest. "REGIONAL FEATURES OF STATE REGULATION OF THE RUSSIAN EMPLOYMENT SECTOR IN THE CONTEXT OF THE RESULTS OF ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELING FOR THE SYSTEM OF REGIONAL LABOR MARKETS." Economy of the North-West: problems and prospects of development 1, no. 64 (2021): 50–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.52897/2411-4588-2021-1-50-59.
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The article considers the results of the analysis of the problem of state regulation of the sphere of employment-prevention, prevention and mitigation of unemployment as a key indicator of the state of the spatial economic system. The subjects of the study are the subject of the Russian Federation – the regional level, the federal district of the Russian Federation – the macro – regional level and Russia as a whole-the macro-level. The proposed approach for solving these problems is based on symmetric models of institutional interaction of supply and demand in regional labor markets and a conceptual scheme for selecting applicants in the system of basic competence modules. The main conceptual and technological tools are: typological modeling of the LM of Russia by methods of nonlinear nonparametric analysis in the R-scaling format, as well as multi-criteria balance technologies for representing and analyzing the interaction of supply and demand on RLM.Examples of the results of mapping the main objects of the constructed factor models in the form of typological planes, which depict the states of the observed objects-subjects of the Russian Federation in the corresponding system of integral indicators
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Vergel Ortega, Mawency, Julio Alfredo Delgado Rojas, and Yannette Díaz Umaña. "Historical dimension of the railway network, its economic and urban impact in San José de Cúcuta." Revista Boletín Redipe 9, no. 6 (June 1, 2020): 183–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.36260/rbr.v9i6.1011.
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The research aims to analyse the process of coverage of the railway network from England to San José de Cúcuta - Colombia, its impact as a transport system in the urban configuration. The research follows a qualitative approach from documentary analysis, which explores the historical particularities that make this process a significant event in the history of Colombia and the city of Cúcuta and quantitative by analysing mathematical models in productivity. It is concluded that the railway allowed the commercial exchange and development of the region, achieving its highest productivity in the thirties, and initiates a potential decline in the forties.
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Clements, Caroline, Keith Hawton, Galit Geulayov, Keith Waters, Jennifer Ness, Muzamal Rehman, Ellen Townsend, Louis Appleby, and Nav Kapur. "Self-harm in midlife: analysis using data from the Multicentre Study of Self-harm in England." British Journal of Psychiatry 215, no. 04 (May 30, 2019): 600–607. http://dx.doi.org/10.1192/bjp.2019.90.
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BackgroundIn England suicide rates are highest in midlife (defined as age 40–59). Despite a strong link with suicide there has been little focus on self-harm in this age group.AimTo describe characteristics and treatment needs of people in midlife who present to hospital following self-harm.MethodData from the Multicentre Study of Self-harm in England were used to examine rates over time and characteristics of men and women who self-harm in midlife. Data (2000–2013) were collected via specialist assessments or hospital records. Trends were assessed by negative binomial regression models. Comparative analysis used logistic regression models for binary outcomes. Repetition and suicide mortality were assessed by Cox proportional hazards models.ResultsA quarter of self-harm presentations were made by people in midlife (n = 24 599, 26%). Incidence rates increased over time in men, especially after 2008 (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.07, 95% CI 1.02–1.12, P < 0.01), and were positively correlated with national suicide incidence rates (r = 0.52, P = 0.05). Rates in women remained relatively stable (IRR 1.00, 95% CI 1.00–1.02, P = 0.39) and were not correlated with suicide. Alcohol use, unemployment, housing and financial factors were more common in men; whereas indicators of poor mental health were more common in women. In men and women 12-month repetition was 25%, and during follow-up 2.8% of men and 1.2% of women died by suicide.ConclusionSelf-harm in midlife represents a key target for intervention. Addressing underlying issues, alcohol use and economic factors may help prevent further self-harm and suicide.Declaration of interestK.H. and N.K. are members of the Department of Health's National Suicide Prevention Advisory Group. N.K. chaired the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline development group for the longer-term management of self-harm and the NICE Topic Expert Group which developed the quality standards for self-harm services. N.K. also chairs the NICE guideline committee for the management of depression. All other authors declare no conflict of interest.
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Libkovska, Una, and Inese Lusena - Ezera. "Development of youth professional interests in accordance with labour market requirements." Global Journal of Business, Economics and Management: Current Issues 7, no. 2 (January 1, 2018): 225–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.18844/gjbem.v7i2.2952.
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This article analyses the European Commission, OECD and Eurostat data, and the Latvian labour market data on youth unemployment rates during 2008–2014. It also examines the results of the empirical study on the Latvian youth’s development of creativity in the formation of intents about profession and its conformity with demands of the present labour market. For determination of the professional interest, methods of analysis and synthesis, time series analysis and mathematical statistics were applied. For the interpretation of models and facts, survey method, expert interview method, focus group discussion analysis, SWOT and PEST methods were applied. A questionnaire was used to examine the professional intents of youth from Latvian secondary schools, and a focus group discussion with parents and teachers of students was organised to determine concepts about the issues of vocational choice in the context of supply and demand in the labour market.
Keywords: Vocational choice, career, employment, labour market.
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Shulha, Olha, Tatiana Kostyshyna, Maryna Semykina, Liudmyla Katan, and Hanna Smirnova. "Modeling of Social Risks in the Labor Sphere." Journal of Risk and Financial Management 14, no. 10 (October 14, 2021): 488. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14100488.
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Modern society has developed in such a way that social reality is characterized by the significant dynamics of all processes and their uncertainty. Under such conditions, risk accompanies any purposeful activity of the social subject, and, in turn, the latter is aimed at reducing the uncertainty of its results. The purpose of this paper is to form the basis of a comprehensive study of social risks in the labor sphere and to develop practical recommendations for minimizing their negative consequences. In order to determine the main factors influencing the probability for the unemployed not to work in the specialty in which they have trained, we used the data of a micro-level survey on economic activity of the population to build linear regression models based on structural variables. As a result of applying the method of economic-mathematical modeling, in particular the basics of probability theory, the models of social risks of unemployment in terms of occupational groups and employment of unemployed persons outside of the specialty they have trained in were developed. The models developed made it possible to formalize and identify patterns of supply and demand dynamics of labor in terms of professions, as well as to identify the main factors influencing the change in the probabilistic characteristics of employment of unemployed persons outside of the specialty they have trained in.
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Beck, M. B., A. J. Adeloye, B. A. Finney, and P. Lessard. "Operational Water Quality Management: Transient Events and Seasonal Variability." Water Science and Technology 24, no. 6 (September 1, 1991): 257–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.1991.0164.
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The practical urgency of addressing problems of the transient pollution of receiving waters by stormwater overflows has done much to assist in dismantling the restrictive assumption of a steady state that has until recently dominated analyses of water quality management. Despite this, however, there are still misconceptions about the complexity and data requirements of dynamic mathematical models, and about the capacity to exercise operational control over the hour-by-hour, day-by-day performance of a wastewater treatment plant. The paper reviews some of these misconceptions, and draws attention to the crucial need for servicing the development of models of transient behaviour with appropriately designed, specialised, monitoring exercises. Results from a case study based on the River Cam in eastern England are presented. These illustrate the impacts of stormwater discharges on the receiving water body as a function of various treatment plant designs and operational strategies. Results are also presented for a second case study, based on the Bedford Ouse River in eastern England. A dynamic model of receiving water quality has been used for assessing the scope for seasonally varying policies for the treatment of ammonium, subject to fish toxicity and in-plant oxygenation requirements. Further studies exploring the interactions between seasonally varying conditions and transient pollution events are currently in progress.
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GAINANOV, D. A., and A. I. MINYAZEV. "A CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR FORECASTING SKILLS NEEDS IN THE LABOUR MARKET BASED ON AN AGENT-BASED APPROACH." Izvestia Ufimskogo Nauchnogo Tsentra RAN, no. 4 (December 9, 2022): 101–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.31040/2222-8349-2022-0-4-101-106.
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One of the most important conditions for a well-functioning and developing economy is a balanced labour force. The mismatch between the demand for labour and its supply leads to higher unemployment, lower living standards and quality of life, an expanding shadow economy and other negative consequences for the population. At the same time, the shortage of qualified labour affects the efficiency of enterprises. Socio-economic changes and crisis phenomena have a significant impact on the formation of the labour force. In the post-reform period, the quality of labour resources has declined significantly and the link between the vocational education system and production has been severed. To assess the situation on the labour market, a forecast of the labour resources balance is used. According to the methodology approved by the Ministry of Labour of the Russian Federation, labour resource balance forecasts are based on expert estimates and extrapolation of data, which cannot provide the necessary reliability under changing conditions in the economy. Forecasting labour market demand in the short, medium and long term using appropriate economic and mathematical methods and models is becoming relevant. Analysis of existing forecasting models shows that most of them are based on forecasts of demography and agesex structure, extrapolating retrospective data on employment and unemployment in the labour market. At the same time, researchers in this direction pay little attention to the behavioural characteristics of economic agents and structural changes in the labour market that may occur in the digital transformation of the economy. A model based on the agent-based approach, which takes into account scenario options of economic and human resource policies, is proposed for forecasting labour demand. Applying this model, it is possible to forecast labour resources under different impact scenarios, such as demographic conditions, changes in socio-economic conditions, disappearance or emergence of new professions in the labour market and education, obtain a set of prospective strategies of agent behaviour, assess the degree of impact on labour resource formation and choose the most effective scenario of impact.
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Head, P. C., D. H. Crawshaw, P. Dempsey, and C. J. Hutchings. "Bathing in the Rain - The Use of Mathematical Models for Storm Water Management to Achieve Bathing Water Quality (The Fylde Coast-NW England)." Water Science and Technology 25, no. 12 (June 1, 1992): 59–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.1992.0337.
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One of the major problems in trying to design wastewater treatment schemes to protect bathing water for coastal communities with combined sewerage systems, is to ensure that discharges of storm water do not prejudice compliance with the requirements of the EC Bathing Water Directive. In order to develop an appropriate storm water management strategy for the Fylde coast it was necessary to integrate a number of mathematical models simulating the hydraulic behaviour of the sewerage system and the dispersion of discharges in the receiving waters. From the sewerage system modelling it was apparent that frequent discharges of storm water to the bathing waters could only be avoided by the provision of considerable additional storage in the system. By means of a suitably calibrated simplified sewer model it was possible to investigate the volumes of storm water generated by a 15 year record of local rainfall when different amounts of extra storage and different pumping regimes were employed. The results from these investigations were used to determine the probable concentrations of faecal bacteria in the coastal waters for each of the 15 bathing seasons and determine the percentage of time for which faecal coliform concentrations exceeded the Bathing Water directive standards for the model grid cells representing the identified bathing waters. As a result of the extensive integrated modelling programme for the Fylde coast it has been possible to design a base flow and storm water management system which should maximize the flow passed forward for treatment whilst also ensuring that there is just sufficient storage to ensure protection of the towns from flooding and the compliance of the beaches with the Bathing Water Directive standards.
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Ford, Chelcy, James Vose, Michael Daley, and Nathan Phillips. "Use of Water by Eastern Hemlock: Implications for Systemic Insecticide Application." Arboriculture & Urban Forestry 33, no. 6 (November 1, 2007): 421–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.48044/jauf.2007.048.
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The hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA; Adelges tsugae Annand) is causing widespread decline and mortality of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr.) throughout most of the range of eastern hemlock. Stem injection of insecticide is widely used as a chemical control measure, but the effectiveness of this method depends on the hydraulic characteristics of individual trees. We present data quantifying the distribution of water flux within the stems and the seasonal variability of daily water use of eastern hemlock trees growing in New England, U.S. and the southern Appalachians. We provide simple mathematical and graphical models derived from these data that can be used by landowners, natural resource managers, and tree care specialists to estimate the amount and timing of water use by eastern hemlock based on tree size and climatic conditions. We anticipate that the data and models presented will be useful in improving the effectiveness and efficiency of systemic insecticide applications.
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Landström, Catharina, and Sarah J. Whatmore. "Virtually Expert: Modes of Environmental Computer Simulation Modeling." Science in Context 27, no. 4 (November 13, 2014): 579–603. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0269889714000210.
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ArgumentThis paper challenges three assumptions common in the literature on expertise: that expertise is linearly derived from scientific knowledge; that experts always align with the established institutional order; and that expertise is a property acquired by individuals. We criticize these ideas by juxtaposing three distinct expert practices involved with flood risk management in England. Virtual engineering is associated with commercial consultancy and relies on standardized software packages to assess local flood inundation. Mathematical experimentation refers to academic scientists creating new digital renderings of the physical dynamics of flooding. Participatory modeling denotes research projects that aim to transform the relationships between experts and local communities. Focusing on different modes of modeling we contribute an analysis of how particular models articulate with specific politics of knowledge as experts form relationships with flood risk management actors. Our empirical study also shows how models can contribute to re-distribution of expertise in local flood risk management.
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Stratan, Alexandru, and Tatiana Gutium. "ECONOMETRIC ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE NON-OBSERVED ECONOMY OF MOLDOVA." Economy and Sociology, no. 1 (August 2022): 6–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2022.1-01.
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The non-observed economy is an integral part of the modern economic system. It is a threat to economic security in conditions of slow stagnation. The relevance of this study lies in the fact that the identification of factors influencing the non-observed economy makes it possible to develop proposals to combat this phenomenon. Also, this paper describes the problems that researchers in the Republic of Moldova face when econometrically modeling the dependence of the non-observed economy on socio-economic indicators. The novelty and purpose of the study is the construction of models with one equation, where the endogenous variable is the level of the non-observed economy in value terms and the share of the non-observed economy in Gross Domestic Product. The main research methods are regression analysis and economic and mathematical modeling. At the first step of the study, the identified main factors of influence that determine the size of the shadow economy in twenty-eight countries were systematized. In the next step, the authors established the available series of statistical data published by the National Bureau of Statistics and determined exogenous variables. The authors used the program for econometric analysis EViews 9 in constructing the models. The single equation models were tested inclusively for first and second-order autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity. The constructed models showed that the non-observed economy is positively affected by the growth of the main sectors of the national economy and by an increase in the unemployment rate. While the rise in foreign trade turnover, namely imports, negatively affects the endogenous variable. There is an identical (negative) relationship between the freight turnover and the level of the non-observed economy.
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Om, Dorji, Chompunooch Thamanukornsri, kado, and Montip Tiensuwan. "Application of Box-Jenkins Models to the Tourist Inflow in Bhutan." Journal of Mathematical Sciences & Computational Mathematics 3, no. 1 (October 4, 2021): 13–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.15864/jmscm.3102.
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Bhutan has now increasingly become a popular destination for many international tourists. Tourism in Bhutan is considered as one of the largest foreign earning industries. The number of tourist inflow in the country is increasing year by year. Forecasting is very necessary for administration and tourist agent for creating awareness and planning for the future development. It can also predict the future trends as accurately as possible and helps in staying one step ahead of the competition. This study aims to apply mathematical model for forecasting monthly tourist inflow from Malaysia, Singapore, China, USA, England, France, Germany, Thailand, Australia and Japan to Bhutan. The Box-Jenkins model is used to identify the parameters of Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model of monthly tourist visited data of above mentioned countries in the period 2011-2015 obtained from Tourism Council of Bhutan. An Akaike's Information Criterion, Schwartz's Bayesian Criterion and estimate variance of white noise are used throughout to test for the identification of best fit model. Further, the periodogram analysis was used to confirm the seasonal period of the model. The results showed ARIMA model for Thai, Chinese, Malaysian and Japanese, while seasonal ARIMA for American, Australian, British, French, Singaporean and German. Further, seasonal ARIMA model was obtained as the best fit model for the overall data. These models are illustrated and could possibly forecast the monthly tourist inflow of one year ahead with acceptable accuracy.
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Raudsepp, J. "Perspectives of the Transatlantic Free Trade Agreement between the EU and the US after BREXIT." Review of Business and Economics Studies 7, no. 4 (February 10, 2020): 45–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.26794/2308-944x-2019-7-4-45-71.
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In this article, the author presents the legal nature and economic effects of Free Trade Agreements (FTA or RTS according to WTO terminology) on economies of members and third countries. The second aim was an evaluation of the economic effect of TAFTA (TTIP) on the United States and the European Union in the case of Brexit as well as some potential impact on third countries and alternative FTAs as counterweights to TTIP. To identify the mathematical and statistical relationships, I constructed correlation and regression models between dependent and independent variables. The dependent variables are GDP, independent variables of GDP per capita, unemployment, exports and imports, price index and investment, as well as the country’s participation in the free trade zone. To evaluate the independent variable (specifically the participation in the free trade zone), a “dummy variable” I used with values “0” during ten years prior the entrance intro free trade zone and “1” during ten years after the entrance of a particular country into the free trade zone. The general conclusions following from my study is that RTS allows many countries to negotiate and achieve much more preferential trade conditions than is possible at the multilateral level.
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Austin, Oshin Ola. "Advanced Control And Development of Hydro and Diesel Generator Hybrid Power System Models for Renewable Energy Microgrids." Journal La Multiapp 2, no. 3 (August 11, 2021): 16–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.37899/journallamultiapp.v2i3.383.
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The Nigerian power problem resulted to incessant and erratic supply of electricity and this has destroyed many industrial processes in the country. It has reduced productivity and has increased unemployment rate in the country to over 50million (this figure is over 70% of Nigerian youths). This has led many of the youths in the country to crime. It has led to the deaths of many innocent people in the country. As of 2016, the electricity energy consumption in the world from the world fact book revealed that the average power per capita (watts per person) in the United States is 1,377 Watts. In Canada, it is 1704 Watts per person and in South Africa; it is 445 Watts per person and in Australia, average power per capita (watts per person) is as high as 1,112 Watts. Whereas, the average electricity consumed in watts per person in Nigeria is just 14 Watts. Unfortunately, this has put the country in a rank of 189 out of 219 countries estimated. In this research work, a Hybrid Electric Power System (HEPS) which comprises Hydro Electric Power Plant (HEPP) and Diesel Generator (DG) was modelled and a control algorithm was established to improve the performance of the system. Hybrid power system mathematical and Simulink models were developed. The output power of the developed Simulink model was be optimized using optimum power point optimization techniques and control algorithms. Simulink models of the two components of the Hybrid Electric Power System were produced using MATLAB/Simulink software. The develop Simulink models was interconnected and final model was developed. The results obtained revealed that the problems associated with conventional methods of power generation was overcomed by the development of this renewable and non-renewable energy resources Hybrid Electric Power System (HEPS) models.
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Keating, Avril, and Gabriella Melis. "Youth Attitudes Towards Their Future: the Role of Resources, Agency and Individualism in the UK." Journal of Applied Youth Studies 5, no. 1 (November 25, 2021): 1–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s43151-021-00061-5.
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AbstractYoung adults tend to be more optimistic about the future than older people, even during social and economic crises such as those created by the COVID pandemic. In this paper, we analyse survey data from a previous economic crisis to examine why young adults remain optimistic about their personal futures, and to consider what lessons, if any, this can help us with thinking about a post-COVID future. The data in question are drawn from a unique cross-sectional survey of young adults aged 22–29 in England, Scotland and Wales conducted in 2014, when youth unemployment in the UK was still extraordinarily high. Using these data, we assess the effect of resources, agency and individualism on young adults’ optimism. Multiple regression models of these data show that individual resources and individual attitudes not only have an independent effect on levels of youth optimism, but they can also interact. In particular, we argue that self-efficacy is the strongest predictor of youth optimism, together with educational resources, but we also show that some youth attitudes (namely individualism) affect youth optimism in different ways, depending on the level of individual-level resources available to the young person. These findings highlight the complexity of understanding youth optimism and point us towards possibilities for supporting young adults in post-pandemic times.
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Thornicroft, Graham, Giulia Bisoffi, Domenico De Salvia, and Michele Tansella. "Urban–rural differences in the associations between social deprivation and psychiatric service utilization in schizophrenia and all diagnoses: a case-register study in Northern Italy." Psychological Medicine 23, no. 2 (May 1993): 487–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0033291700028579.
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SynopsisService utilization measures from the psychiatric case registers for urban South-Verona and rural Portogruaro in North East Italy for the period 1983–9 were used to identify associations with socio-demographic variables from the 1981 census in schizophrenia and related disorders as well as in all diagnoses. The patterns of service use were broadly similar, except that Portogruaro has significantly more community contacts, and has about twice the treated incidence and prevalence of schizophrenia. The census data showed that unmarried and unemployed people were more likely to live alone in the urban than in the rural area. In South-Verona the most strongly associated predictor variables, both for schizophrenia and all diagnoses, are: living alone, unemployment, percentage of the total population who are dependents and the percentage who are divorced, separated or widowed. In contrast, in Portogruaro there were no consistent associations between census and service use variables. Stepwise multiple regression models using three census predictor variables accounted for over 85% of the variance in South-Verona utilization rates. The results indicate that the strongly predictive associations previously described in England hold in urban South-Verona, but not in rural Portogruaro, and may be related to the effect of cities in clustering seriously disabled psychiatric patients in areas of low-cost housing where they live in relative social isolation.
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Amin, A. K. M. Nurul, Syidatul Akma Sulaiman, and Muammer D. Arif. "Modeling and Optimization of Vibration Amplitude in Turning of Stainless Steel AISI 304 at Various Tool Overhangs." Applied Mechanics and Materials 217-219 (November 2012): 1573–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.217-219.1573.
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Chatter is detrimental to all machining operations. In metal turning operations it leads to inferior surface topography, reduced productivity, and shortened tool life. Various researchers have thus tried to develop mathematical models and theories for chatter formation in order to find optimum ways of chatter suppression. This research investigated the chatter phenomenon in turning of stainless steel AISI 403 in the light of vibration amplitude. Central composite rotatable design of experiments under Response Surface Methodology (RSM) was employed to create a second order mathematical model, and the adequacy of the model was verified using analysis of variance (ANOVA). Machining operations were carried out on a conventional engine lathe (Harrison M390, England) with rated power of 5.5 kW and maximum spindle speed of 2000 rpm. Cemented Tungsten Carbide (WC-Co) inserts were used to machine a stainless steel cylinder. The data acquisition system consisted of a vibration sensor (KISTLER accelerometer Type 8774A50) and a signal conditioning unit, which was connected to the computer via a data acquisition (DAQ) card. Analog input signals were fed into the DAQ card and evaluated using the DASYLab 5.6 software. The vibration results were analyzed in the frequency domain (FFT) plots. It was observed that the uncontrolled vibration of the tool holder was the largest contributor to chatter formation.
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Trotter, Caroline, Jamie Findlow, Paul Balmer, Ann Holland, Rita Barchha, Nick Hamer, Nick Andrews, Elizabeth Miller, and Ray Borrow. "Seroprevalence of Bactericidal and Anti-Outer Membrane Vesicle Antibodies to Neisseria meningitidis Group B in England." Clinical and Vaccine Immunology 14, no. 7 (May 9, 2007): 863–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1128/cvi.00102-07.
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ABSTRACT Outer membrane vesicle (OMV) and recombinant protein-based vaccines targeted against multiple strains of group B meningococci are under development. The serum bactericidal antibody (SBA) assay has been designated the surrogate of protection, but the exact cutoff has not been determined. We measured the SBA titers in 2,415 serum samples and the anti-OMV IgG antibody concentrations in 2,672 serum samples representative of the English population to establish a baseline of natural immunity. SBA and anti-OMV IgG antibody titers are high in infants in the first 3 months of life, declining thereafter, presumably as maternal immunity wanes. About 6% of the subjects in the 1- to 11-year-old age group had SBA titers ≥4. During the teenage years, there was a marked increase in the percentage of subjects with SBA titers ≥4, rising to over 50% in 19-year-olds, with about 20% of older adults achieving this titer. The peak in SBA and anti-OMV IgG titers coincided with the peak in meningococcal carriage. Simple mathematical models confirm that the relationship between observed seroprevalence and carriage by age is consistent with carriage inducing SBA and that following an episode of carriage, SBA levels may remain elevated for many months. With the exception of children aged 3 to 11 months, there was no clear relationship between disease incidence and seroprevalence.
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Burnet, Neil G., Ranald I. Mackay, Ed Smith, Amy L. Chadwick, Gillian A. Whitfield, David J. Thomson, Matthew Lowe, Norman F. Kirkby, Adrian M. Crellin, and Karen J. Kirkby. "Proton beam therapy: perspectives on the National Health Service England clinical service and research programme." British Journal of Radiology 93, no. 1107 (March 2020): 20190873. http://dx.doi.org/10.1259/bjr.20190873.
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The UK has an important role in the evaluation of proton beam therapy (PBT) and takes its place on the world stage with the opening of the first National Health Service (NHS) PBT centre in Manchester in 2018, and the second in London coming in 2020. Systematic evaluation of the role of PBT is a key objective. By September 2019, 108 patients had started treatment, 60 paediatric, 19 teenagers and young adults and 29 adults. Obtaining robust outcome data is vital, if we are to understand the strengths and weaknesses of current treatment approaches. This is important in demonstrating when PBT will provide an advantage and when it will not, and in quantifying the magnitude of benefit. The UK also has an important part to play in translational PBT research, and building a research capability has always been the vision. We are perfectly placed to perform translational pre-clinical biological and physical experiments in the dedicated research room in Manchester. The nature of DNA damage from proton irradiation is considerably different from X-rays and this needs to be more fully explored. A better understanding is needed of the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of protons, especially at the end of the Bragg peak, and of the effects on tumour and normal tissue of PBT combined with conventional chemotherapy, targeted drugs and immunomodulatory agents. These experiments can be enhanced by deterministic mathematical models of the molecular and cellular processes of DNA damage response. The fashion of ultra-high dose rate FLASH irradiation also needs to be explored.
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Wess, Jane. "Lecture demonstrations and the real world: the case of cart-wheels." British Journal for the History of Science 28, no. 1 (March 1995): 79–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0007087400032702.
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A quotation from J. T. Desaguliers, one of the foremost scientific lecturers in England until his death in 1744, contrasts the use of demonstrations to show physical principles and those designed to imitate real situations:I have indeed a Machine with brass wheels whose steel axes have very small pivots nicely made that any of the wheels set in motion will turn for the space of more than half an hour… but the use of my machine being chiefly to show how near these kinds of experiments may be brought to agree with a mathematical theory; we cannot expect that any carriage to bear weight can have so little friction. Therefore I choose to relate Monsieur De Camus's Experiments made on Models of Carriages of an inch to a Foot every way representing Carts and Waggons… because it shows us directly what is the real Friction in the carriages at present in use.
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Yandybaeva, Natalya V. "Dynamic model for predicting quality of life indicators in the region." Journal Of Applied Informatics 18, no. 1 (February 10, 2023): 129–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.37791/2687-0649-2023-18-1-129-143.
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An approach to assessing and forecasting indicators of the quality of life of the population in the region based on the concept of system dynamics is presented. A mathematical model has been developed, which is a system of non-linear, non-homogeneous, different-tempo differential equations, which include system variables and external factors. A digraph of causal relationships between system variables and external factors is constructed. As system variables, the model uses indicators of socio-economic development of the region: gross regional product, life expectancy at birth, population size, per capita per capita income, registered unemployment rate, birth rate, share of the population with income below the subsistence level, the weight of organizations using personal computers. The choice of external factors and functional dependencies in the developed model is substantiated. The adequacy of the developed mathematical model was checked using retrospective data and the calculation of the relative error. The interface of the author’s software application “Prognoz_2”, developed in the GUIDE MatLab environment, used to conduct computational experiments, is presented. An example of the practical implementation of the developed approach to assessing the quality of life in the Saratov and Samara regions is considered. The results of the computational experiment on the analysis and prediction of the quality of life on the time interval [2022;2026] years within the framework of the implementation of three scenarios are shown. The values of system variables in 2021 normalized relative to 2010 were used as initial conditions for the calculations. The developed software can be used to form scenarios for the socio-economic development of the region. Models and algorithms can be used as part of an information-advising system for making decisions at various levels of management.
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Plisko, Yevhen, and Violetta Tsokalo. "Social Security Policy and Activities of Social Services of Ukraine." Bulletin of Luhansk Taras Shevchenko National University 2, no. 1 (339) (2021): 72–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.12958/2227-2844-2021-1(339)-2-72-79.
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The article analyzes the activities of the social protection system and social services of Ukraine. The concept of «social protection» is defined, the classification of the social protection system according to the models of social policy of other countries (Austria, England, Germany, USA, France, Japan) is given. The only principle of social protection according to the given models is formulated – joint action of a complex of measures which are directed on increase of well-being and quality of life of the population (economic, household, social). The socially-oriented policy of Ukraine, which is aimed at overcoming poverty, introduction of social insurance and targeted assistance, solving problems related to unemployment, is indicated. It was found that the basic state social standard in the field of income is the subsistence level. The social service is defined as a multifunctional state executive body that acts as a guarantor in ensuring the stability of the functioning of the system of social protection and social security of socially vulnerable groups. It is established that social services are an organizational form of social work, because they implement the practice of social security. Ensure orderly communication and interaction of all social work bodies (departments and social services). The organizational structure of the social security system is an orderly connection and interaction of all bodies of social work (departments and social services), which provide general conditions for rational organization and normal functioning of the support system for individuals, groups of communities at risk of social risk. The leading direction in social security is to support a person who finds himself in a difficult life situation at the minimum (not lower) social and household level – the provision of cash benefits, social benefits, benefits, subsidies and more.
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PRAH, P., A. J. COPAS, C. H. MERCER, A. NARDONE, and A. M. JOHNSON. "Patterns of sexual mixing with respect to social, health and sexual characteristics among heterosexual couples in England: analyses of probability sample survey data." Epidemiology and Infection 143, no. 7 (August 28, 2014): 1500–1510. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0950268814002155.
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SUMMARYPatterns of sexual mixing are major determinants of sexually transmitted infection (STI) transmission, in particular the extent to which high-risk populations mix with low-risk populations. However, patterns of mixing in the general population are poorly understood. We analysed data from a national probability sample survey of households, the Health Survey for England 2010. A total of 943 heterosexual couples living together, where at least one partner was aged between 16–44 years, were included. We used correlation coefficients to measure the strength of similarities between partners with respect to demographic characteristics, general health, health behaviours and sexual history. Males were on average 2 years older than their female partners, although this age difference ranged from a median of 0 years in men aged 16–24 years to a median of 2 years in men aged 35–44 years. A positive correlation between partners was found for all demographic characteristics. With respect to general health and health behaviours, a strongly positive correlation was found between men and women in reporting alcohol consumption at ⩾3 days a week and smoking. Men typically reported greater numbers of sexual partners than their female partner, although men and women with more partners were more likely to mix with each other. We have been able to elucidate the patterns of sexual mixing between men and women living together in England. Mixing based on demographic characteristics was more assortative than sexual characteristics. These data can better inform mathematical models of STI transmission.
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Ilie, Iulia, Peter Dittrich, Nuno Carvalhais, Martin Jung, Andreas Heinemeyer, Mirco Migliavacca, James I. L. Morison, et al. "Reverse engineering model structures for soil and ecosystem respiration: the potential of gene expression programming." Geoscientific Model Development 10, no. 9 (September 25, 2017): 3519–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3519-2017.
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Abstract. Accurate model representation of land–atmosphere carbon fluxes is essential for climate projections. However, the exact responses of carbon cycle processes to climatic drivers often remain uncertain. Presently, knowledge derived from experiments, complemented by a steadily evolving body of mechanistic theory, provides the main basis for developing such models. The strongly increasing availability of measurements may facilitate new ways of identifying suitable model structures using machine learning. Here, we explore the potential of gene expression programming (GEP) to derive relevant model formulations based solely on the signals present in data by automatically applying various mathematical transformations to potential predictors and repeatedly evolving the resulting model structures. In contrast to most other machine learning regression techniques, the GEP approach generates readable models that allow for prediction and possibly for interpretation. Our study is based on two cases: artificially generated data and real observations. Simulations based on artificial data show that GEP is successful in identifying prescribed functions, with the prediction capacity of the models comparable to four state-of-the-art machine learning methods (random forests, support vector machines, artificial neural networks, and kernel ridge regressions). Based on real observations we explore the responses of the different components of terrestrial respiration at an oak forest in south-eastern England. We find that the GEP-retrieved models are often better in prediction than some established respiration models. Based on their structures, we find previously unconsidered exponential dependencies of respiration on seasonal ecosystem carbon assimilation and water dynamics. We noticed that the GEP models are only partly portable across respiration components, the identification of a general terrestrial respiration model possibly prevented by equifinality issues. Overall, GEP is a promising tool for uncovering new model structures for terrestrial ecology in the data-rich era, complementing more traditional modelling approaches.
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Botlíková, Milena, Josef Botlík, and Jana Stuchlíková. "Impacts of the global pandemic on the aviation industry of the European Union." SHS Web of Conferences 92 (2021): 01005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/20219201005.
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Research background: With the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, there has been a complete collapse in demand in global markets due to restrictions on movement and market paralysis. Among the sectors most significantly affected is tourism, which is predominantly dependent on the movement of clients. The performance of the tourism industry fell to a minimum during the pandemic. Restaurants and accommodation facilities were closed almost overnight by government intervention. The restriction of free movement has also forced airlines to curb their activities. These companies can be considered as an important globalization element, enabling travel to distant destinations. Purpose of the article: The article deals with the effects of the pandemic on European Union airlines, as well as the tools adopted to restore air traffic. Based on the analysis, the development of transport flows in air transport before and during the pandemic was evaluated. Furthermore, tools and measures taken to stimulate air services were analyzed and models of possible impacts on the EU aviation industry and selected economic factors were predicted. Methods: Basic mathematical and statistical methods, correlation analysis, comparisons and predictions were used for the analysis. Findings & Value added: The situation brings problems associated with redundancies, i.e. rising unemployment, declining GDP, falling stock markets or airline bankruptcies as in the case of the British Flybe. Based on 2019 data, it can be estimated that in the period March-June 2020, the demand for EU27 passenger air transport decreased by approximately 100 million passengers.
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Skuza, Aleksandra, Stanisław Ziemianek, and Marek Suproniuk. "Power System Division—Certain Issues Associated with Shaping Commutation Strategies in Power Substations." Energies 15, no. 19 (October 4, 2022): 7293. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en15197293.
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The article addresses some of the problems associated with the process of shaping commutation strategies in power substations. The issues of modelling the commutation processes of switching devices within a substation and a sample system, as well as mathematical models for creating switching steps within a substation were reviewed. Examples of optimisation methods to be possibly applied in the creation of algorithms for the division of a system into subsystems as a result of a threat of losing its integrity were discussed. The aim of this article is to present the results of preliminary research on the topic described. Its content includes the main methods to achieve the final research results. It is therefore an article marking the path of the research work carried out. The article shows that it is possible, with simple substation measures, to adapt a large power system in such a way that eventual subdivision into sub-systems can be realised by system operation planners before uncontrolled division as a result of a fault occurs. To illustrate the intent of the pathway, a New England test system modified version was used, using an example where the binodalisation process and one possible division of this system into subsystems was explained.