Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Uncertainty'
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ONGARO, MALVINA. "Uncertainty for uncertain decision makers." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Genova, 2022. https://hdl.handle.net/11567/1100017.
Full textSecond Chapter - Decision theories have largely ignored the step of decision making in which the agent models the situation. Given that a decision can be represented with different models, and that these can lead to different recommendations, then without a principled way to assess them the agent’s choice is under-determined. As models require the agent to select the aspects that matter to the decision, an account of rational decision modelling must include a notion of relevance. I propose that the most rational model is the one taking into account all and only the considerations relevant for the decision. I define relevance for a decision as a matter of providing reasons for some option, and I identify four functional types of reasons leading to four corresponding types of relevance. I focus on what I call “constitutive relevance”, which provides the content of the decision model, and propose a formal definition of this concept.
Third Chapter - The increasing success of the evidence-based policy movement is raising the demand for empirically informed decision making. As arguably any policy decision happens under conditions of uncertainty, following our best available evidence to reduce the uncertainty seems a requirement of good decision making. However, not all the uncertainty faced by decision makers can be resolved by evidence. In this paper, we build on a philosophical analysis of uncertainty to identify the boundaries of scientific advice in policy decision making. We argue that the authority of scientific advisors is limited to cognitive uncertainty and cannot extend beyond it. While the appeal of evidence-based policy rests on a view of scientific advice as limited to cognitive uncertainty, in practice there is a risk of over-reliance on experts beyond the legitimate scope of their authority. We conclude by applying our framework to a real-world case of evidence based policy, where experts have overstepped their boundaries by ignoring non-cognitive types of uncertainty.
Fourth Chapter - The COVID-19 pandemic has presented the world with a series of new challenges, but the policy response may be difficult due to the severe uncertainty of our circumstances. While pressure to take timely action may push towards less inclusive decision procedures, in this paper I argue that precisely this uncertainty provides both democratic and epistemic reasons to include stakeholders in our collective decision making.
Abdullah, Johari. "Uncertainty and uncertainty tolerance in service provisioning." Thesis, University of Newcastle upon Tyne, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10443/2467.
Full textWillquist, André. "Uncertainty Discretization for Motion Planning Under Uncertainty." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för datavetenskap, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-170496.
Full textWoolley, Richard. "Living uncertain lives : a study in the sociology of uncertainty /." View thesis, 2002. http://library.uws.edu.au/adt-NUWS/public/adt-NUWS20030721.144500/index.html.
Full text"Dissertation submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, September 2002." Bibliography: p. 445 - 466.
Vergaray, Alfonso Ruben. "Rethinking Uncertainty: Spinoza and Hume on Shaping Uncertain Secular Futures." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/70844.
Full textPh. D.
MacAskill, William. "Normative uncertainty." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2014. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:8a8b60af-47cd-4abc-9d29-400136c89c0f.
Full textBoopathy, Komahan. "Uncertainty Quantification and Optimization Under Uncertainty Using Surrogate Models." University of Dayton / OhioLINK, 2014. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=dayton1398302731.
Full textFiorito, Luca. "Nuclear data uncertainty propagation and uncertainty quantification in nuclear codes." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/238375.
Full textDoctorat en Sciences de l'ingénieur et technologie
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
Simangunsong, Eliot Sation. "Supply chain uncertainty : linking sources of uncertainty and management practices." Thesis, Lancaster University, 2010. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.556682.
Full textCheng, Haiyan. "Uncertainty Quantification and Uncertainty Reduction Techniques for Large-scale Simulations." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/28444.
Full textPh. D.
Clausen, Mork Jonas. "Dealing with uncertainty." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Filosofi, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-72680.
Full textQC 20120202
Smith, James M. M. Arch Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "Architecture of uncertainty." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/34429.
Full textIncludes bibliographical references (p. [118]-[121]).
Machines have been used throughout history as an extension of the human body; a prosthetic device that can provide the opportunity to redefine the spatial experience of a given time and place. In this investigation the Pinhole camera was used as a device for capturing photographic images of an urban place. The images produced by the pinhole cameras are representations of the existing place and its experience. The representation of a place generated by the device mediates the relationship between the body and the landscape. This thesis explores the production of architectural form with respect to the uncertainties of our built environment, strategies of representation, and the construction of urban devices that re-define the spatial experience.
by James M. Smith.
M.Arch.
West, Mark Carleton University Dissertation Architecture. "Architecture doubt uncertainty." Ottawa, 1996.
Find full textAkten, Burcu Elif. "Generalized uncertainty relations /." Digital version accessible at:, 1999. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/utexas/main.
Full textSANTAGIUSTINA, CARLO ROMANO, Massimo Warglien, and Michele Bernasconi. "Talking About Uncertainty." Doctoral thesis, Università Ca' Foscari di Venezia, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10278/3709814.
Full textSantagiustina, Carlo Romano Marcello Alessandro <1988>. "Talking about uncertainty." Doctoral thesis, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10579/13445.
Full textUrganci, Ilksen. "Positional Uncertainty Analysis Using Data Uncertainy Engine A Case Study On Agricultural Land Parcels." Master's thesis, METU, 2009. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/3/12611409/index.pdf.
Full textand generating realisations of uncertain data for use in uncertainty propagation analyses. A case study area in Kocaeli, Turkey that mostly includes agricultural land parcels is selected in order to evaluate positional uncertainty and obtain uncertainty boundaries for manually digitized fields. Geostatistical evaluation of discrepancy between reference data and digitized polygons are undertaken to analyse auto and cross correlation structures of errors. This process is utilized in order to estimate error model parameters which are employed in defining an uncertainty model within DUE. Error model parameters obtained from training data, are used to generate simulations for test data. Realisations of data derived via Monte Carlo Simulation using DUE, are evaluated to generate uncertainty boundaries for each object guiding user for further analyses with pre-defined information related to the accuracy of spatial entities. It is also aimed to assess area uncertainties affected by the position of spatial entities. For all different correlation structures and object models, weighted average positional error for this study is between 2.66 to 2.91 meters. At the end of uncertainty analysis, deformable object model produced the smallest uncertainty bandwidth by modelling cross correlation.
Duan, Kaifeng. "Uncertainty Principle : a study of the uncertain relationship between people and object." Thesis, Konstfack, Industridesign, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:konstfack:diva-3791.
Full textSchenk, Todd Edward William. "Institutionalizing uncertainty : exploring how infrastructure stakeholders can prepare for uncertain climate futures." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/101372.
Full textCataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 355-384).
Climate change poses a range of threats to our infrastructure systems. Efforts to respond are complicated by the uncertainty and complexity involved. The uncertainties are pervasive, going beyond scientific and technical issues to include significant governance challenges. This dissertation examines how stakeholders are likely to make project-level decisions in practice, and how we can support better processes. It considers the implications of using multiple scenarios as a way to frame uncertainty, and of bringing multiple stakeholders together for decision-making. It is also concerned with the differences across governance regimes, focusing on Boston, Singapore and Rotterdam. The research process featured a role-play simulation (RPS) exercise run with participants as a way to introduce issues and facilitate experimentation. Participants overwhelmingly favored flexible approaches as a way to proceed despite uncertainties, making the best possible decisions today while leaving options open as conditions change and learning occurs. Unfortunately, this research suggests that there are substantial barriers to institutionalizing flexibility. Participants were also extremely positive on the use of scenarios as a way to frame uncertainty. However, the exercise runs underscored the challenges associated with their use; scenarios encourage users to consider the implications of an uncertain future, but can concurrently deny them the single standards they are familiar with using. Another key finding is that adaptation planning efforts are deliberative processes in which facilitation, the behavior of participants, and process design matter; the choices participants made had significant implications on exercise outcomes. Finally, participants behaved differently across the three cities, underscoring the importance of wider governance norms. This dissertation concludes with three recommendations: First, the development of boundary organizations that can foster the dynamic institutions necessary to advance flexible adaptation. Second, given the importance of salient, credible and legitimate scientific and technical information, I recommend the use of joint fact finding (JFF) techniques. Because of the dynamic nature of climate adaptation, I suggest that JFF be explicitly iterative in nature. Scenarios can help JFF groups to consider the uncertainties involved. Third, I recommend that researchers consider using exercises as tools for action research, particularly when considering nascent and complex issues like climate adaptation.
by Todd Edward William Schenk.
Ph. D. in Public Policy and Planning
Lee, S. "Three essays on uncertainty : real and financial effects of uncertainty shocks." Thesis, University College London (University of London), 2017. http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1570354/.
Full textZimmermann, Jörg [Verfasser]. "Algebraic Uncertainty Theory : A Unifying Perspective on Reasoning under Uncertainty / Jörg Zimmermann." Bonn : Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Bonn, 2013. http://d-nb.info/1044970340/34.
Full textBudzinski, Maik. "The differentiation between variability uncertainty and knowledge uncertainty in life cycle assessment." Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2014. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-135913.
Full textChellaboina, Vijaya-Sekhar. "Robust stability and performance for linear and nonlinear uncertain systems with structured uncertainty." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 1996. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/12903.
Full textFerenc, Veszteg Róbert. "Auctions, Mechanisms and Uncertainty." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/4057.
Full textComo ejemplo, considérese el caso en el cual la autoridad central de un país está considerando la posibilidad de declarar como "reserva nacional" una determinada área geográfica. Para poder tomar la decisión óptima, por ejemplo la que maximiza el bienestar social, ésta se tiene que basar en la información individual de las ciudades, estados, o agentes, cuya opinión sobre el problema que se considera se puede preguntar directamente, pero la verdad no se expresará sin los incentivos adecuados. Estos pueden aparecen como transferencias monetarias u otros instrumentos controlados por la autoridad. Con otras palabras, la teoría de diseño de mecanismos estudia la harmonización de los incentivos que se tienen que aplicar cuando un conjunto de agentes interactúa para que estos muestren un comportamiento deseado, es decir para que el resultado sea el intencionado.
La primera formalización de este problema se encuentra en el trabajo de Hurwitz (1972). No obstante, una de las primeras aplicaciones que se puede considerar como parte de la literatura de diseño de mecanismos lleva el nombre de Hayek, quien empezó a estudiar las limitaciones, en cuanto a la cantidad de información, de los planificadores centrales en los años 20. Él consideró un problema de gran escala al centrar su atención en el mecanismo del mercado libre. Se opuso firmemente al sistema socialista y describió su fallo principal como un problema de información.
Una aplicación similar es el diseño de una constitución que determina las acciones que los agentes pueden realizar (espacio de estrategias) y las reglas de votación que transforman votos en decisiones (funciones de pago). Al lado de la literatura sobre cómo reducir los fallos del mercado, sobre impuestos óptimos y teoría de bienes públicos, el diseño de subastas también aparece entre los sujetos del diseño de mecanismos.
Esta tesis está dividida en tres capítulos que presentan estudios completos y separados de situaciones económicas en las cuales la información, la incertidumbre, juega un papel importante. Los resultados se han obtenido con la ayuda de la teoría de juegos y el enfoque estándar de la literatura del diseño de mecanismos. El primer capítulo propone el uso del mecanismo "multipujas" ("multibidding game"; veáse Pérez-Castrillo y Wettstein (2002)) en situaciones con información imperfecta y desarrolla sus propiedades teóricas. El segundo capítulo es un trabajo empírico, utiliza datos experimentales y contrasta las predicciones teóricas del primero. La tesis se finaliza con el estudio de los conceptos de justicia en un marco donde los agentes toman sus decisiones bajo incertidumbre.
Mechanisms through which individuals interact may have important impact on the outcomes of this interaction. The economic theory of mechanism design is concerned with the design of social decision procedures for situations in which economic agents own relevant private information and behave, i.e. use it, strategically.
As an example, consider the case in which the central authority of a country is studying the possibility of declaring national reserve a given geographic area. In order to come up with the optimal decision, that for instance maximizes social welfare, it should be conditioned on the related information owned by cities, states, or individuals. They might be asked directly for their opinion on the underlying problem, but will not report their information truthfully unless proper incentives are given to them through monetary transfers or some other instruments controlled by the authority. In other words, mechanism design theory is concerned with the harmonization of incentives that must be applied to a set of agents that interact in order to get those agents to exhibit some desired behavior, i.e. in order the schemes to work as intended. The central authority, or social planner, of this example who acts on behalf of the whole society can also be replaced by an imaginary social goal or by a principal who is pursuing his own interest.
The formalization of this problem can be find in the seminal work by Hurwicz (1972). Nevertheless, one of the first applications that can be considered as from the theory of mechanism design is due to Hayek who started to study the limitations on the amount of information that central planners can acquire in the early 1920s. He considered a large scale problem focusing his attention on the free market mechanism. He fiercely opposed to the socialist system from every angle and described the main problem as a problem of information.
A similar application is the design of a constitution that determines the actions that agents may take (strategy space) and the electoral rules that transform votes into decisions (outcome function). Along with the literature on the ways of reducing market failures, on optimal taxation and public good theory, the design of auctions is also subject of the field of mechanism design.
This thesis dissertation is divided into three chapters that present self-contained studies of economic situations in which private information, i.e. uncertainty, plays an important role. In deriving the results game theoretic tools and the approach taken by the mechanism design literature are used. The first chapter proposes the use of the multibidding mechanism (check Pérez-Castrillo y Wettstein (2002)) in situations with imperfect information and explores its theoretical properties. The second chapter is an empirical work, it uses experimental data and tests the theoretical predictions of the first. The thesis ends with the study of fairness concepts in an environment in which agents take their decisions under uncertainty.
Soupre, Matthieu. "Essays on economic uncertainty." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/664416.
Full textAquesta tesi proposa diferents mesures d’incertesa econòmica i avalua el seu impacte a nivell microeconòmic i macroeconòmic. El primer assaig, al Capítol 2, proposa una mesura de la incertesa macroeconòmica que permet distingir entre les seves múltiples components. Es proposen mètriques d’incertesa i risc de Knight, i se n’avaluen els seus respectius impactes sobre diverses magnituds econòmiques. En el Capítol 3 s’amplia l’enfocament clàssic per la mesura de la incertesa – l’error quadràtic mig – als mètodes d’entropia en econometria. Les diverses mesures d’incertesa que fan servir la teoría la informació estan motivades, derivades i estimades en dos conjunts de dades: el Survey of Professional Forecasters, que s’utilitza al Capítol 2 per demostrar que les conclusions es mantenen amb aquest nou enfocament; i el Survey of Economic Expectations, que es fa servir per mostrar com aquestes mesures d’informació poden ajudar a estudiar situacions diferents que els mètodes classics amb error quadràtic mig. El Capítol 4 estudia la incertesa des del punt de vista de la predicció i proposa una mesura d’incertesa de previsió per estudiar com els cicles econòmics poden afectar aquesta dimensió particular de la incertesa knightiana. El Capítol 5 examina la qüestió de l’eficàcia de la política fiscal en períodes d’incertesa, i ho fa de manera que ajusta per als moviments de la incertesa econòmica amb les recessions. També es proposa una nova classe de models depenents de l’estat que inclou condicionalitat. El Capítol 6 conté les conclusions.
Esta tesis propone diferentes medidas de incertidumbre económica y evalúa su impacto a nivel microeconómico y macroeconómico. El primer ensayo en el Capítulo 2 propone una medida de la incertidumbre macroeconómica que permite distinguir entre sus diversos componentes. Se proponen métricas de incertidumbre y riesgo de Knight, y se evalúan sus respectivos impactos sobre diversas cantidades económicas. El Capítulo 3 amplía el enfoque clásico para medir la incertidumbre - del error cuadrático medio -, a los métodos de entropía en econometría. Varias medidas de incertidumbre que utilizan la teoría de la información están motivadas, derivadas y estimadas en dos conjuntos de datos: el Survey of Professional Forecasters que se utiliza en el Capítulo 2 para demostrar que las conclusiones se mantienen con este nuevo enfoque y el Survey of Economic Expectations, para mostrar cómo estas medidas de información pueden ayudar a estudiar situaciones diferentes de las que los métodos clásicos con error cuadrático medio permiten. El Capítulo 4 estudia la incertidumbre desde el punto de vista de la predicción y propone una medida de incertidumbre de previsión para estudiar cómo los ciclos económicos pueden afectar a esta dimensión particular de la incertidumbre knightiana. El Capítulo 5 examina la cuestión de la eficacia de la política fiscal en períodos de incertidumbre, y lo hace de una manera que tiene en cuenta los movimientos de la incertidumbre económica con las recesiones. Además, se propone una nueva clase de modelos dependientes del estado que incluye condicionalidad. El Capítulo 6 concluye la tesis.
Zhu, Yuntao. "Semidefinite programming under uncertainty." Online access for everyone, 2006. http://www.dissertations.wsu.edu/Dissertations/summer2006/y%5Fzhu%5F073106.pdf.
Full textNartey, Mohammed Donkor, and Anyinka Nkongtenden Ndobegang. "SUPPLIER SELECTION UNDER UNCERTAINTY." Thesis, Jönköping University, Jönköping International Business School, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-1189.
Full textThe role of purchasing in supply chain management has received and continues to receive increasing attention as the years go by. Purchasing enhances efficiency and competitiveness among other benefits but to realize these benefits it is imperative to select and maintain competent suppliers. However, many factors affect a firm’s ability to choose the right supplier. Uncertainty is an issue that has received great attention. It affects all functions of a company consequently affecting purchasing and supplier selection. This thesis seeks to provide an understanding of the supplier selection process and criteria under circumstances of uncertainty in the case where the potential supplier under evaluation is a newly created company. The authors try to find out if uncertainty varies with firm’s age and tested the suitability of existing criteria on the selection of newly created firms. They also sought ways by which uncertainty can be reduced.One of the realisations of this thesis is that there is a relationship between the characteristics or problems faced by new firms and uncertainty. Uncertainties created by new firms include lack of trust and commitment, inadequate finance, poor quality, unreliable delivery times, inadequate logistic technological capabilities. No new types or sources of uncertainty were discovered however, it was found that uncertainty was certainly higher when working with new firms. The criteria delivery, quality, cost/price, financial position and communication and technology were recognized as the commonly used criteria a fact confirmed from empirical results as well as in previous literature. However other criteria such as ISO certification, reliability, credibility, good references and product development were also identified. These criteria had existed before but did not receive the same attention in previous studies. This show that focus is shifting from solely relying on quantitative factors to include qualitative criteria. The study identified that some methods of minimising uncertainty could include detailed financial analyses, site visit, intensive verification, close relationships, ISO certification, good references and recommendations. It is worth noting that uncertainty cannot be entirely eliminated in all situations
Dreborg, Karl Henrik. "Scenarios and structural uncertainty." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Infrastructure, 2004. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-3697.
Full textSöderström, Ulf. "Monetary policy under uncertainty." Doctoral thesis, Handelshögskolan i Stockholm, Samhällsekonomi (S), 1999. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hhs:diva-646.
Full textDiss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 1999
Frost, Robert E. III. "Uncertainty and Information Processing." TopSCHOLAR®, 2011. http://digitalcommons.wku.edu/theses/1120.
Full textMathieu, Michael. "Unsupervised Learning under Uncertainty." Thesis, New York University, 2017. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10261120.
Full textDeep learning, in particular neural networks, achieved remarkable success in the recent years. However, most of it is based on supervised learning, and relies on ever larger datasets, and immense computing power. One step towards general artificial intelligence is to build a model of the world, with enough knowledge to acquire a kind of ``common sense''. Representations learned by such a model could be reused in a number of other tasks. It would reduce the requirement for labelled samples and possibly acquire a deeper understanding of the problem. The vast quantities of knowledge required to build common sense precludes the use of supervised learning, and suggests to rely on unsupervised learning instead.
The concept of uncertainty is central to unsupervised learning. The task is usually to learn a complex, multimodal distribution. Density estimation and generative models aim at representing the whole distribution of the data, while predictive learning consists of predicting the state of the world given the context and, more often than not, the prediction is not unique. That may be because the model lacks the capacity or the computing power to make a certain prediction, or because the future depends on parameters that are not part of the observation. Finally, the world can be chaotic of truly stochastic. Representing complex, multimodal continuous distributions with deep neural networks is still an open problem.
In this thesis, we first assess the difficulties of representing probabilities in high dimensional spaces, and review the related work in this domain. We then introduce two methods to address the problem of video prediction, first using a novel form of linearizing auto-encoders and latent variables, and secondly using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). We show how GANs can be seen as trainable loss functions to represent uncertainty, then how they can be used to disentangle factors of variation. Finally, we explore a new non-probabilistic framework for GANs.
Söderström, Ulf. "Monetary policy under uncertainty /." Stockholm : Economic Research Institute, Stockholm School of Economics (Ekonomiska forskningsinstitutet vid Handelshögsk.) (EFI), 1999. http://www.hhs.se/efi/summary/506.htm.
Full textHudson, David. "Inflation, uncertainty and investment /." Title page, contents and introduction only, 1993. http://web4.library.adelaide.edu.au/theses/09EC/09ech885.pdf.
Full textRunde, Jochen. "Essays on Keynesian uncertainty." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1992. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.239619.
Full textMcCormick, Gregory. "Pump scheduling under uncertainty." Thesis, Brunel University, 2003. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.268976.
Full textWhite, Lucy. "Strategic behaviour under uncertainty." Thesis, University of Oxford, 1999. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.322808.
Full textYavuz, Devrim. "Uncertainty and financial fragility." Thesis, University of Exeter, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10036/3036.
Full textPhilpott, Mark Stuart. "Convoy routing under uncertainty." Thesis, University of East Anglia, 2004. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.405399.
Full textJaaskela, Jarkko Petteri. "Monetary policy under uncertainty." Thesis, Birkbeck (University of London), 2003. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.401857.
Full textBrus, T. "Multimodality, uncertainty and aggregation." Thesis, University of Warwick, 1985. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.372199.
Full textGreco, Veronica. "Uncertainty, stress, and health." Thesis, University of York, 2000. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.341481.
Full textDixon, Elsbeth Clare. "Representing uncertainty in models." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1989. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.279578.
Full textDarnell, Catherine Arianne. "Children's understanding of uncertainty." Thesis, University of Birmingham, 2016. http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/6562/.
Full textYang, Juan. "Education choices under uncertainty." Thesis, University of York, 2007. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/11014/.
Full textCubukgil, Evren. "Uncertainty and firm investment." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2011. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:c3fb67f9-adf2-41ac-98b9-cb2878e2b2d6.
Full textSmietanka, Pawel. "Essays on macroeconomic uncertainty." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2016. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/34989/.
Full textГоробченко, Денис Володимирович, Денис Владимирович Горобченко, and Denys Volodymyrovych Horobchenko. "Climate change uncertainty debates." Thesis, Видавництво СумДУ, 2007. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/12811.
Full textShaer, Nicole. "The paradox of uncertainty." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/28321.
Full textDu, Preez Johan. "Price formation under uncertainty." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/14975.
Full textThe analysis presented in this thesis is aimed at better understanding the role of expectations to the price formation process. Since general competitive analysis lacks a coherent explanation of how expectations are formulated it is difficult to promote theories that assume agents have no structural knowledge in favour of theories that assume agents have significant structural knowledge, e.g. rational expectations hypothesis versus the theory of rational beliefs. Accordingly, empirical evidence is presented to support analyses of models in which agents are not assumed to have structural knowledge. Simple general equilibrium models are used to illustrate that modelling risk requires a thorough analysis of investor expectations embedded in asset prices to better understand the information conveyed by observed risk premia. Analysis of the role of diverse expectations in competitive equilibria shows that a prerequisite for the existence of a short-run Walrasian monetary equilibrium is the existence of at least one agent whose expectations are insensitive to current prices. Ergodic theory shows that any stable dynamical system generates a stationary probability measure based on its underlying generating probability that is unrelated to the data generated by the dynamical system. This result is used to show that the conditions under which diverse beliefs arise are sufficiently general to warrant the study of the impact of diverse expectations on the price formation process. Enthusiasm for models that allow diverse beliefs is however tempered by a review of Sunspot theory that show that it is not necessary to abandon the rational expectations hypothesis in order for competitive markets to be subject to speculative fluctuations that are driven by expectations. This analysis is reinforced by a known example that shows that adaptive learning rules can lead rational agents to believe in nonstationary, indeterminate equilibria that are locally stable, such as Sunspot Equilibria. This leads to an important conclusion; diverse beliefs are not temporary phenomena since disequilibrium-learning analysis cannot be relied on to teach investors the economy's equilibrium map.
Jerow, Samuel B. "Fiscal Policy and Uncertainty." Miami University / OhioLINK, 2018. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=miami1533112993662019.
Full text