Relevant bibliographies by topics / Uncertainty and fluctuations

Academic literature on the topic 'Uncertainty and fluctuations'

Author: Grafiati
Published: 10 December 2022
Last updated: 28 January 2023

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Journal articles on the topic "Uncertainty and fluctuations"

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Bloom, N. "Fluctuations in uncertainty." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 4 (April 20, 2016): 30–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2016-4-30-55.

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In this essay, the author addresses four questions about uncertainty. First, what are some facts and patterns about economic uncertainty? Both macro and micro uncertainty appear to rise sharply in recessions and fall in booms. Uncertainty also varies heavily across countries - developing countries appear to have about one-third more macro uncertainty than developed countries. Second, why does uncertainty vary during business cycles? Third, do fluctuations in uncertainty affect behavior? Fourth, has higher uncertainty worsened the Great Recession and slowed the recovery? Much of this discussion is based on research on uncertainty from the last five years, reflecting the recent growth of the literature.
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Bloom, Nicholas. "Fluctuations in Uncertainty." Journal of Economic Perspectives 28, no. 2 (May 1, 2014): 153–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.28.2.153.

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Uncertainty is an amorphous concept. It reflects uncertainty in the minds of consumers, managers, and policymakers about possible futures. It is also a broad concept, including uncertainty over the path of macro phenomena like GDP growth, micro phenomena like the growth rate of firms, and noneconomic events like war and climate change. In this essay, I address four questions about uncertainty. First, what are some facts and patterns about economic uncertainty? Both macro and micro uncertainty appear to rise sharply in recessions and fall in booms. Uncertainty also varies heavily across countries—developing countries appear to have about one-third more macro uncertainty than developed countries. Second, why does uncertainty vary during business cycles? Third, do fluctuations in uncertainty affect behavior? Fourth, has higher uncertainty worsened the Great Recession and slowed the recovery? Much of this discussion is based on research on uncertainty from the last five years, reflecting the recent growth of the literature.
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Mumtaz, Haroon, and Paolo Surico. "Policy uncertainty and aggregate fluctuations." Journal of Applied Econometrics 33, no. 3 (January 19, 2018): 319–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jae.2613.

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Pries, Michael J. "Uncertainty-driven labor market fluctuations." Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 73 (December 2016): 181–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2016.09.003.

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Hua, Junguo, Hui Li, Zejun He, Jing Ding, and Futong Jin. "The Microcosmic Mechanism and Empirical Test of Uncertainty on the Non-Linear Fluctuation of Chinese Grain Prices-Based on the Perspective of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty." Agriculture 12, no. 10 (September 22, 2022): 1526. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12101526.

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The dramatic fluctuations in grain prices and the threat to grain security caused by global economic policy uncertainty have been a social concern and a challenging area for price management authorities to regulate. Based on general equilibrium analysis in microeconomics, this paper constructs a mathematical model of the impact of global economic policy uncertainty on grain price fluctuation. It then examines the micro mechanism of non-linear grain price fluctuation under the dominant market mechanism and measures the non-linear shock effect of global economic policy uncertainty on grain prices using a threshold regression model. The results show that soybean and corn prices are subject to a two-zone fluctuation pattern due to global economic policy uncertainty. The impact has significant non-linear characteristics and is significantly greater in the high zone than that in the low zone. Accordingly, this paper offers government departments advice on better regulating and managing the market supply and demand and smoothing out sharp fluctuations in grain prices caused by changes in global economic policies.
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Naixement, Luciano, and Carlos H. Béssa. "Quantum vacuum fluctuations in inorganic compound CdSe." MOMENTO, no. 66 (January 2, 2023): 23–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.15446/mo.n66.103486.

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In the present work, we study the quantum vacuum fluctuations at finite temperature in the propagation of light in nonlinear optical media. We present nonlinear materials, that have the second-order electrical susceptibility tensor, and the fluctuating effective refractive index caused by fluctuating vacuum electric fields. Likewise, we study the fluctuations of the vacuum, which led to the contributions of thermal and mixed fluctuations being associated with a faithful test function to perform the calculations, in contrast to the Lorentzian distribution. We show the contribution of thermal and mixed fluctuations to time-of-flight fluctuations compared to the contributions of vacuum fluctuations. The result reveals a numerical estimate performed on cadmium selenide (CdSe) suggesting that the effects of fluctuations can cause uncertainty in time of flight due to quantum vacuum fluctuations in terms of thermal and mixed fluctuations.
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Creal, Drew D., and Jing Cynthia Wu. "MONETARY POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS." International Economic Review 58, no. 4 (November 2017): 1317–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/iere.12253.

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Javaid, Saher, Mineo Kaneko, and Yasuo Tan. "Structural Condition for Controllable Power Flow System Containing Controllable and Fluctuating Power Devices." Energies 13, no. 7 (April 2, 2020): 1627. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en13071627.

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This paper discusses a structural property for a power system to continue a safe operation under power fluctuation caused by fluctuating power sources and loads. Concerns over global climate change and gas emissions have motivated development and integration of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar to fulfill power demand. The energy generated from these sources exhibits fluctuations and uncertainty which is uncontrollable. In addition, the power fluctuations caused by power loads also have the same consequences on power system. To mitigate the effects of uncontrollable power fluctuations, a power flow control is presented which allocates power levels for controllable power sources and loads and connections between power devices. One basic function for the power flow control is to balance the generated power with the power demand. However, due to the structural limitations, i.e., the power level limitations of controllable sources and loads and the limitation of power flow channels, the power balance may not be achieved. This paper proposes two theorems about the structural conditions for a power system to have a feasible solution which achieves the power balance between power sources and power loads. The discussions in this paper will provide a solid theoretical background for designing a power flow system which proves robustness against fluctuations caused by fluctuating power devices.
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Reiche, Daniel, Jen-Tsung Hsiang, and Bei-Lok Hu. "Quantum Thermodynamic Uncertainty Relations, Generalized Current Fluctuations and Nonequilibrium Fluctuation–Dissipation Inequalities." Entropy 24, no. 8 (July 23, 2022): 1016. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e24081016.

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Thermodynamic uncertainty relations (TURs) represent one of the few broad-based and fundamental relations in our toolbox for tackling the thermodynamics of nonequilibrium systems. One form of TUR quantifies the minimal energetic cost of achieving a certain precision in determining a nonequilibrium current. In this initial stage of our research program, our goal is to provide the quantum theoretical basis of TURs using microphysics models of linear open quantum systems where it is possible to obtain exact solutions. In paper [Dong et al., Entropy 2022, 24, 870], we show how TURs are rooted in the quantum uncertainty principles and the fluctuation–dissipation inequalities (FDI) under fully nonequilibrium conditions. In this paper, we shift our attention from the quantum basis to the thermal manifests. Using a microscopic model for the bath’s spectral density in quantum Brownian motion studies, we formulate a “thermal” FDI in the quantum nonequilibrium dynamics which is valid at high temperatures. This brings the quantum TURs we derive here to the classical domain and can thus be compared with some popular forms of TURs. In the thermal-energy-dominated regimes, our FDIs provide better estimates on the uncertainty of thermodynamic quantities. Our treatment includes full back-action from the environment onto the system. As a concrete example of the generalized current, we examine the energy flux or power entering the Brownian particle and find an exact expression of the corresponding current–current correlations. In so doing, we show that the statistical properties of the bath and the causality of the system+bath interaction both enter into the TURs obeyed by the thermodynamic quantities.
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Soret, Ariane, Ohad Shpielberg, and Eric Akkermans. "Uncertainty relations for mesoscopic coherent light." Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment 2021, no. 12 (December 1, 2021): 123302. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-5468/ac3e6b.

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Abstract Thermodynamic uncertainty relations unveil useful connections between fluctuations in thermal systems and entropy production. This work extends these ideas to the disparate field of zero temperature quantum mesoscopic physics where fluctuations are due to coherent effects and entropy production is replaced by a cost function. The cost function arises naturally as a bound on fluctuations, induced by coherent effects—a critical resource in quantum mesoscopic physics. Identifying the cost function as an important quantity demonstrates the potential of importing powerful methods from non-equilibrium statistical physics to quantum mesoscopics.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Uncertainty and fluctuations"

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Dadwal, Raman, and Ahmad Ziad. "Managing fluctuations in Overall Equipment Effectiveness : A Fuzzy approach." Thesis, Tekniska Högskolan, Högskolan i Jönköping, JTH, Industriell organisation och produktion, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-47065.

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Brianti, Marco. "Essays in Macroeconomics:." Thesis, Boston College, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/bc-ir:109064.

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Thesis advisor: Ryan A. Chahrour
The dissertation studies the primary sources of business-cycle fluctuations and their interaction with uncertainty and financial frictions. In my work, I examine the degree to which changes in uncertainty and financial conditions can be independent drivers of economic fluctuations; I study the sources of boom-bust cycles and whether they are linkedto credit market sentiments; and I ask how financial frictions affect economic fluctuations in terms of prices and quantities. In "Financial and Uncertainty Shocks", I separately identify financial and uncertainty shocks using a novel SVAR procedure and discuss their distinct monetary policy implications. The procedure relies on the qualitatively different responses of corporate cash holdings: after a financial shock, firms draw down their cash reserves as they lose access to external finance, while uncertainty shocks drive up cash holdings for precautionary reasons. Although both financial and uncertainty shocks are contractionary, my results show that the former are inflationary while the latter generate deflation. I rationalize this pattern in a New-Keynesian model: after a financial shock, firms increase prices to raise current liquidity; after an uncertainty shock, firms cut prices in response to falling demand. These distinct channels have stark monetary policy implications: conditional on uncertainty shocks the divine coincidence applies, while in case of financial shocks the central bank can stabilize inflation only at the cost of more unstable output fluctuations. In "What are the Sources of Boom-Bust Cycles?", joint with Vito Cormun, we provide a synthesis of two major views on economic fluctuations. One view maintains that expansions and recessions arise from the interchange of positive and negative persistent exogenous shocks to fundamentals. This is the conventional view that gave rise to the profusion of shocks used in modern dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. In contrast, a second view, which we call the endogenous cycles view, holds that business cycle fluctuations are due to forces that are internal to the economy and that endogenously favor recurrent periods of boom followed by a bust. In this environment, cycles can occur after small perturbations of the long run equilibrium. We find empirical evidence pointing at the coexistence of both views. In particular, we find that the cyclical behaviour of economic aggregates is due in part to strong internal mechanisms that generate boom-bust phenomena in response to small changes in expectations, and in part to the interchange of positive and negative persistent fundamental shocks. Motivated by our findings, we build a theory that unifies the dominant paradigm with the endogenous cycles approach. Our theory suggests that recessions and expansions are intimately related phenomena, and that understanding the nature of an expansion, whether it is driven by fundamentals or by beliefs, is a first order issue for policy makers whose mandate is to limit the occurrance of inefficient economic fluctuations. In "COVID-19 and Credit Constraints'', joint with Pierluigi Balduzzi, Emanuele Brancati, and Fabio Schiantarelli, we investigate the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the role played by credit constraints in the transmission mechanism, using a novel survey of expectations and plans of Italian firms, taken just before and after the outbreak. Most firms revise downward their expectations for sales, orders, employment, and investment, while prices are expected to increase at a faster rate, with geographical and sectoral heterogeneity in the size of the effects. Credit constraints amplify the effects on factor demand and sales of the COVID-19 generated shocks. Credit-constrained firms also expect to charge higher prices, relative to unconstrained firms. The search for and availability of liquidity is a key determinant of firms' plans. Finally, both supply and demand shocks play a role in shaping firms' expectations and plans, with supply shocks being slightly more important in the aggregate
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2021
Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Economics
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Fisch, Jan Hendrik, and Jan-Michael Ross. "Timing Product Replacements under Uncertainty: The Importance of Material' Price Fluctuations for the Success of Products That Are Based on New Materials." Wiley-Blackwell, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jpim.12145.

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Being first to market with new products is one of the most enduring pieces of strategic advice handed to managers. This view also emphasizes the importance of launching new products that are based on new materials as soon as possible. However, when the input costs of products that embody new materials are uncertain because of volatile material prices, the advantage of being an early mover comes along with the risk of paying unexpectedly high material prices. Real-option theory suggests delaying material substitution under uncertainty even if the new material enables superior product performance. Firms who have created the flexibility to switch between alternative inputs can benefit from responding to opportunities or threats that arise from changes in the environment. The current study formalizes this logic in a switching-option model and tests it on a sample of material substitution projects from the manufacturing sector. Our findings shed light on how input-cost fluctuations influence the timing' performance relationship and bring into question the common advice to launch new products as soon as possible. Instead, our results suggest that firms who align the timing of market launch to trends and fluctuations of material prices improve their competitive positions. These insights suggest novel ways for new product development (NPD) managers how to successfully use external information at the back-end of the NPD process and how to compete in an era defined by volatile material prices and technological change. (authors' abstract)
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Dojava, Václav. "Stanovení standardní nejistoty při konfirmaci teplotní komory." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta elektrotechniky a komunikačních technologií, 2018. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-377087.

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The thesis deals with the problematics of confirmation of the climatic chamber CTS 65/50, which is a component of CVVOZE testing laboratory. Theoretical part deals with the analysis and description of methods of confirmation of climatic chambers based primarily on technical standards. This part then contains a brief description of a theory of measurement uncertainty. Practical part deals with the design of measurement procedure, which was used for confirmation measurement of ten temperature setpoints. This section then also contains an analysis of the measured data with the evaluation of standard combined uncertainty of temperature measurement. The last part contains an evaluation of the confirmation results, which were the basis for the determination of whether the climatic chamber meets the requirements for the steady-state temperature stability inside the workspace resulting from the standards for the climatic testing
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5

Scipioni, Angel. "Contribution à la théorie des ondelettes : application à la turbulence des plasmas de bord de Tokamak et à la mesure dimensionnelle de cibles." Thesis, Nancy 1, 2010. http://www.theses.fr/2010NAN10125.

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La nécessaire représentation en échelle du monde nous amène à expliquer pourquoi la théorie des ondelettes en constitue le formalisme le mieux adapté. Ses performances sont comparées à d'autres outils : la méthode des étendues normalisées (R/S) et la méthode par décomposition empirique modale (EMD).La grande diversité des bases analysantes de la théorie des ondelettes nous conduit à proposer une approche à caractère morphologique de l'analyse. L'exposé est organisé en trois parties.Le premier chapitre est dédié aux éléments constitutifs de la théorie des ondelettes. Un lien surprenant est établi entre la notion de récurrence et l'analyse en échelle (polynômes de Daubechies) via le triangle de Pascal. Une expression analytique générale des coefficients des filtres de Daubechies à partir des racines des polynômes est ensuite proposée.Le deuxième chapitre constitue le premier domaine d'application. Il concerne les plasmas de bord des réacteurs de fusion de type tokamak. Nous exposons comment, pour la première fois sur des signaux expérimentaux, le coefficient de Hurst a pu être mesuré à partir d'un estimateur des moindres carrés à ondelettes. Nous détaillons ensuite, à partir de processus de type mouvement brownien fractionnaire (fBm), la manière dont nous avons établi un modèle (de synthèse) original reproduisant parfaitement la statistique mixte fBm et fGn qui caractérise un plasma de bord. Enfin, nous explicitons les raisons nous ayant amené à constater l'absence de lien existant entre des valeurs élevées du coefficient d'Hurst et de supposées longues corrélations.Le troisième chapitre est relatif au second domaine d'application. Il a été l'occasion de mettre en évidence comment le bien-fondé d'une approche morphologique couplée à une analyse en échelle nous ont permis d'extraire l'information relative à la taille, dans un écho rétrodiffusé d'une cible immergée et insonifiée par une onde ultrasonore
The necessary scale-based representation of the world leads us to explain why the wavelet theory is the best suited formalism. Its performances are compared to other tools: R/S analysis and empirical modal decomposition method (EMD). The great diversity of analyzing bases of wavelet theory leads us to propose a morphological approach of the analysis. The study is organized into three parts. The first chapter is dedicated to the constituent elements of wavelet theory. Then we will show the surprising link existing between recurrence concept and scale analysis (Daubechies polynomials) by using Pascal's triangle. A general analytical expression of Daubechies' filter coefficients is then proposed from the polynomial roots. The second chapter is the first application domain. It involves edge plasmas of tokamak fusion reactors. We will describe how, for the first time on experimental signals, the Hurst coefficient has been measured by a wavelet-based estimator. We will detail from fbm-like processes (fractional Brownian motion), how we have established an original model perfectly reproducing fBm and fGn joint statistics that characterizes magnetized plasmas. Finally, we will point out the reasons that show the lack of link between high values of the Hurst coefficient and possible long correlations. The third chapter is dedicated to the second application domain which is relative to the backscattered echo analysis of an immersed target insonified by an ultrasonic plane wave. We will explain how a morphological approach associated to a scale analysis can extract the diameter information
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HAUNG, CHI-HSIANG, and 黃氣祥. "Stochastic sediment transport modeling: fluctuation sediment concentrations, Non-Fickian diffusivity, settling velocity uncertainty." Thesis, 2017. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/5bjc84.

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碩士
國立臺灣大學
土木工程學研究所
105
The uncertainty of the sediment transport cannot be neglected according to the turbulent bursting. The study adapted two methods to calculated the uncertainty of sediment transport and one method to improved uncertainty analysis method. The first method (first topic) is based on the advection diffusion equation which is in diffusion region. The uncertain of the movement of the sediment particle can be simulated by stochastic particle tracking method(SPTM). By Markov Chain, SPTM can be simplified and calculated the uncertainty of the sediment concentration efficiency. First, the uncertainty of the spatial and temporal sediment concertation caused by the particle size can be calculated. With a similar particle size, the change of temporal sediment concertation is explicit. Secondly the uncertain of the equilibrium sediment concentration caused by fluctuation of turbulence will be estimated. The result of sediment concertation by proposed model is validated against the experiment data and can better describe sediment concentration than the deterministic model (Rouse profile). The first method is more suitable to described the sediment concentration under condition of suspended load. The second method is focus on the trajectory of the sediment particle in non-diffusion region. The particle is force by lifting, gravity, drag, Buoyancy forces. To calculated the foundation force, the more accuracy flow velocity is created by gram charily expansion which considering four order moment of the fluctuation. The bed condition in the study adapt a rebound process. The particle will collide with stochastic particle alignment. In this (second) topic, firstly, the saltation length and height calculated by the proposed model will be validated by experiment. The saltation length and height in the smooth bed is higher than that in rough bed. Secondly the sediment concentration under suspend and bed load condition is compared with Rouse profile and experiment data. Third the supdiffusion and subdiffusion will be discussed. In the first and second topic, the uncertainty of the sediment concentration is calculated by the Monte Carlo Simulation which is extremely time consuming. In the third topic, two new methods are provided. The results simulated by two methods are compared with Simpson method. The first method is derived from the point estimated method(PEM) which only used two or three points. By increasing the accuracy of the simulated result by PEM, the adequative method is used to increase the simulation points. Secondly, Gram Charlier expansion and Hermit Gauss Quadrature is adapted to calculated by uncertainty in the second method. First method is suitable when the simulation points are few and the distribution of the random variable is known. The second method is suitable when the statistical moment of the random variable is only known. The converge of the second method is faster than the other two methods.Key words: Particle tracking method, Markov chain, higher order flow field, Modified Hermite Gauss integral, Adequative Hong’s method.
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Tao, Szu-Ying, and 陶思穎. "The Relation between Business Fluctuation, Uncertainty and Organizational Commitment- The Moderating Effect of Manager’s Origin." Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/93372g.

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碩士
銘傳大學
國際企業學系碩士班
101
Since the continuously financial crisis goes on, there have been severe problems unsolved for both labour market and business management over the past few years. For the purpose of relieving these problems, the study hereby inspects the relation between business fluctuation, uncertainty and organizational commitment in both inside-succeed and outside-succeed manager’s department. According to the survey, the empirical results show that (1) there is no correlation between business fluctuation and uncertainty, (2) uncertainty is negatively and significantly correlated with organizational commitment, and (3) the correlation between business fluctuation to uncertainty and uncertainty to organizational commitment are both stronger in the department of inside-succeed manager than they used to be. As a consequence, business can take the advantage of inside-succeed manager’s department to control over the performance and explicit succession plan, since the employees have better organizational commitment.
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Books on the topic "Uncertainty and fluctuations"

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Mordecai, Kurz, ed. Endogenous economic fluctuations: Studies in the theory of rational beliefs. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1997.

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Kurz, Mordecai. Endogenous Economic Fluctuations: Studies in the Theory of Rational Beliefs. Springer, 2011.

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Milonni, Peter W. An Introduction to Quantum Optics and Quantum Fluctuations. Oxford University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780199215614.001.0001.

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This book is an introduction to quantum optics for students who have studied electromagnetism and quantum mechanics at an advanced undergraduate or graduate level. It provides detailed expositions of theory with emphasis on general physical principles. Foundational topics in classical and quantum electrodynamics, including the semiclassical theory of atom-field interactions, the quantization of the electromagnetic field in dispersive and dissipative media, uncertainty relations, and spontaneous emission, are addressed in the first half of the book. The second half begins with a chapter on the Jaynes-Cummings model, dressed states, and some distinctly quantum-mechanical features of atom-field interactions, and includes discussion of entanglement, the no-cloning theorem, von Neumann’s proof concerning hidden variable theories, Bell’s theorem, and tests of Bell inequalities. The last two chapters focus on quantum fluctuations and fluctuation-dissipation relations, beginning with Brownian motion, the Fokker-Planck equation, and classical and quantum Langevin equations. Detailed calculations are presented for the laser linewidth, spontaneous emission noise, photon statistics of linear amplifiers and attenuators, and other phenomena. Van der Waals interactions, Casimir forces, the Lifshitz theory of molecular forces between macroscopic media, and the many-body theory of such forces based on dyadic Green functions are analyzed from the perspective of Langevin noise, vacuum field fluctuations, and zero-point energy. There are numerous historical sidelights throughout the book, and approximately seventy exercises.
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(Foreword), J. A. Kregel, and Cecile Dangel (Translator), eds. Finance, Investment and Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis in the Tradition of Hyman P. Minsky (Elgar Monographs). Edward Elgar Publishing, 2000.

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Kurz, Mordecai. Endogenous Economic Fluctuations: Studies in the Theory of Rational Beliefs (Studies in Economic Theory). Springer, 1997.

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Strasberg, Philipp. Quantum Stochastic Thermodynamics. Oxford University PressOxford, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780192895585.001.0001.

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Abstract Processes at the nanoscale happen far away from the thermodynamic limit, far from equilibrium and are dominated by fluctuations and, perhaps, even quantum effects. This book establishes a consistent thermodynamic framework for such processes by combining tools from non-equilibrium statistical mechanics and the theory of open quantum systems. The book is accessible for graduate students and of interest to all researchers striving for a deeper understanding of the laws of thermodynamics beyond their traditional realm of applicability. It puts most emphasis on the microscopic derivation and understanding of key principles and concepts as well as their interrelation. The topics covered in this book include (quantum) stochastic processes, (quantum) master equations, local detailed balance, classical stochastic thermodynamics, (quantum) fluctuation theorems, strong coupling and non non-Markovian effects, thermodynamic uncertainty relations, operational approaches, Maxwell's demon and time-reversal symmetry, among other topics. Furthermore, the book treats a few applications in detail to illustrate the general theory and its potential for practical applications. These are single-molecule pulling experiments, quantum transport and thermoelectric effects in quantum dots, the micromaser and related set-ups in quantum optics.
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Peter, Huber. Ch.7 Non-performance, s.3: Termination, Art.7.3.2. Oxford University Press, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/law/9780198702627.003.0143.

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This commentary analyses Article 7.3.2 of the UNIDROIT Principles of International Commercial Contracts (PICC) concerning notice of termination. Under Art 7.3.2, termination of the contract has to be made by notice to the other party and sets a time limit for giving notice in certain cases of breach. The provision serves two objectives: first, it aims to prevent the aggrieved party from speculating on market fluctuations by postponing its decision on whether or not to terminate and, secondly, it allows the non-performing party to avoid any losses due to uncertainty as to whether the aggrieved party will terminate the contract. This commentary also discusses time limits for the exercise of the right to terminate and the burden of proof concerning notice of termination.
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Finfer, Simon. Glycaemic control in critical illness. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780199600830.003.0259.

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Hyperglycaemia is a near universal occurrence in critically-ill patients. In the last 10 years, control of blood glucose has been one of the most intensively studied areas of critical care medicine. It has become clear that control of blood glucose has the potential to affect both morbidity and mortality, and considerable uncertainty remains over many aspects of blood glucose management. Both hyperglycaemia and hypoglycaemia are associated with increased mortality and should be avoided wherever possible. Wide fluctuations in blood glucose concentration (referred to as increased glucose variability) are also associated with increased mortality, but may indicate more severe illness. Increased interest in blood glucose management has demonstrated that point-of-care glucose meters designed for ambulatory use by patient with diabetes are not sufficiently accurate for use in critically-ill patients. More accurate analysers should be used in the intensive care unit and management guided by computerized. Future developments may see the introduction of accurate continuous or near continuous blood glucose analysers, but safe and effective closed loop control of blood glucose remains an elusive goal.
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Harcourt, G. C., and Peter Kriesler, eds. The Oxford Handbook of Post-Keynesian Economics, Volume 2. Oxford University Press, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780195390759.001.0001.

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This book analyzes Keynesian foundations of post-Keynesian economics, focusing on how uncertainty and liquidity revoke Say’s law. It explains the key features of Michał Kalecki’s analysis of a capitalist economy and examines his macroeconomics in the short-run. It also provides a brief overview of post-Keynesian contributions to the study of the economic problems of least developed countries, also known as development economics. In addition, the book tackles the financial markets, considers Hyman Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis, and discusses Sidney Weintraub’s criticism of the neoclassical-Keynesian synthesis. The book also analyzes Piero Sraffa’s role in the criticism of mainstream theory and the development of post-Keynesian economics, assesses the contributions and the evolution of Wynne Godley’s views on money, and examines the notion of “center of gravitation” in the classical tradition. Other chapters look at a post-Keynesian theory of aggregate fluctuations, comment on Luigi Pasinetti’s systematic attempt to integrate Sraffa’s and John Maynard Keynes’s core theoretical messages as elements of a more general theoretical framework, and describe post-Keynesian approaches towards the making and implications of industrial prices.
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Christensen, Ole Bøssing, and Erik Kjellström. Projections for Temperature, Precipitation, Wind, and Snow in the Baltic Sea Region until 2100. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.695.

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The ecosystems and the societies of the Baltic Sea region are quite sensitive to fluctuations in climate, and therefore it is expected that anthropogenic climate change will affect the region considerably. With numerical climate models, a large amount of projections of meteorological variables affected by anthropogenic climate change have been performed in the Baltic Sea region for periods reaching the end of this century.Existing global and regional climate model studies suggest that:• The future Baltic climate will get warmer, mostly so in winter. Changes increase with time or increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. There is a large spread between different models, but they all project warming. In the northern part of the region, temperature change will be higher than the global average warming.• Daily minimum temperatures will increase more than average temperature, particularly in winter.• Future average precipitation amounts will be larger than today. The relative increase is largest in winter. In summer, increases in the far north and decreases in the south are seen in most simulations. In the intermediate region, the sign of change is uncertain.• Precipitation extremes are expected to increase, though with a higher degree of uncertainty in magnitude compared to projected changes in temperature extremes.• Future changes in wind speed are highly dependent on changes in the large-scale circulation simulated by global climate models (GCMs). The results do not all agree, and it is not possible to assess whether there will be a general increase or decrease in wind speed in the future.• Only very small high-altitude mountain areas in a few simulations are projected to experience a reduction in winter snow amount of less than 50%. The southern half of the Baltic Sea region is projected to experience significant reductions in snow amount, with median reductions of around 75%.
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Book chapters on the topic "Uncertainty and fluctuations"

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Pfeiffer, Friedhelm, and Winfried Pohlmeier. "Income, Uncertainty and the Probability of Self-Employment." In Output and Employment Fluctuations, 23–39. Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag HD, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-57989-9_4.

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Nakazawa, Koju, and John D. Hey. "Consumption with Fluctuations in Preference." In Economic and Environmental Risk and Uncertainty, 173–92. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-1360-3_12.

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Halperin, Ricardo A. "Theories of Business Fluctuations." In The Influence of Uncertainty in a Changing Financial Environment, 151–66. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-48778-6_7.

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Flaig, Gebhard. "Demand Uncertainty and Labour Input in a Bivariate ARCH-M Model." In Output and Employment Fluctuations, 9–22. Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag HD, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-57989-9_3.

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Vercelli, Alessandro. "Uncertainty, Technological Flexibility and Long Term Fluctuations." In Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 130–44. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-48360-8_8.

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Ferrara, Laurent, Stéphane Lhuissier, and Fabien Tripier. "Uncertainty Fluctuations: Measures, Effects and Macroeconomic Policy Challenges." In Financial and Monetary Policy Studies, 159–81. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-79075-6_9.

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Eliáš, Jan, Miroslav Vořechovský, and Jia-Liang Le. "Fracture Simulations of Concrete Using Discrete Meso-level Model with Random Fluctuations of Material Parameters." In Multiscale Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification of Materials and Structures, 3–18. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-06331-7_1.

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Rao, K. Balaji. "Characterisation of Large Fluctuations in Response Evolution of Reinforced Concrete Members." In Proceedings of the International Symposium on Engineering under Uncertainty: Safety Assessment and Management (ISEUSAM - 2012), 259–95. India: Springer India, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-81-322-0757-3_15.

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Schmidt-Böcking, H., S. Eckart, H. J. Lüdde, G. Gruber, and T. Jahnke. "The Precision Limits in a Single-Event Quantum Measurement of Electron Momentum and Position." In Molecular Beams in Physics and Chemistry, 223–45. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-63963-1_12.

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AbstractA modern state-of-the-art “quantum measurement” [The term “quantum measurement” as used here implies that parameters of atomic particles are measured that emerge from a single scattering process of quantum particles.] of momentum and position of a single electron at a given time [“at a given time” means directly after the scattering process. (It should be noticed that the duration of the reaction process is typically extremely short => attoseconds).] and the precision limits for their experimental determination are discussed from an experimentalists point of view. We show—by giving examples of actually performed experiments—that in a single reaction between quantum particles at a given time only the momenta of the emitted particles but not their positions can be measured with sub-atomic resolution. This fundamental disparity between the conjugate variables of momentum and position is due to the fact that during a single-event measurement only the total momentum but not position is conserved as function of time. We highlight, that (other than prevalently perceived) Heisenberg’s “Uncertainty Relation” UR [1] does not limit the achievable resolution of momentum in a single-event measurement. Thus, Heisenberg’s statement that in a single-event measurement only either the position or the momentum (velocity) of a quantum particle can be measured with high precision contradicts a real experiment. The UR states only a correlation between the mean statistical fluctuations of a large number of repeated single-event measurements of two conjugate variables. A detailed discussion of the real measurement process and its precision with respect to momentum and position is presented.
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Shimamura, Sho, and Kouichi Hirata. "Introducing Fluctuation into Increasing Order of Symmetric Uncertainty for Consistency-Based Feature Selection." In Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 550–65. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-14812-6_34.

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Conference papers on the topic "Uncertainty and fluctuations"

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Korcz, Karol. "Uncertainty In Measuring Noise Parameters Of a Communication Receiver." In NOISE AND FLUCTUATIONS: 18th International Conference on Noise and Fluctuations - ICNF 2005. AIP, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.2036845.

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Kadim, HJ. "Optimal fluctuations for satisfactory performance under parameter uncertainty." In Test Symposium (EWDTS). IEEE, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ewdts.2011.6116590.

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Spathis, C., A. Birbas, K. Georgakopoulou, and M. Birbas. "Noise and uncertainty in comparator/TDC sensor readout circuits." In 2017 International Conference on Noise and Fluctuations (ICNF). IEEE, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icnf.2017.7985972.

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Planat, Michel, and Haret Rosu. "Quantum phase uncertainty in mutually unbiased measurements and Gauss sums." In SPIE Third International Symposium on Fluctuations and Noise, edited by Philip R. Hemmer, Julio R. Gea-Banacloche, Peter Heszler, Sr., and M. Suhail Zubairy. SPIE, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1117/12.608976.

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Xie, Pingping, Jizhong Zhu, Jin Zou, and Peizheng Xuan. "Uncertainty Analysis of Wind Power Fluctuations in Yunnan Power Grid." In 2019 IEEE Innovative Smart Grid Technologies - Asia (ISGT Asia). IEEE, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/isgt-asia.2019.8881321.

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Wang, Lihui, Zhenkai Liu, Weiming Shen, and Sherman Lang. "Function-Block Enabled Job Shop Planning and Control With Uncertainty." In ASME 2004 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. ASMEDC, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece2004-59279.

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The objective of this research is to develop a methodology of distributed process planning and its execution control for job shop operations. The manufacturing processes of job shop operations are rather complex, especially at shop floors where highly mixed products in small batch sizes are handled simultaneously. In addition to the fluctuating job shop operations, unpredictable events like job delay, urgent job insertion, fixture shortage, missing tool, and even machine break-down, are regularly challenging the job shop operations. Targeting the fluctuations, this research proposes a DPP (distributed process planning) approach to generate process plans that are responsive and adaptive to the changes. In this paper, a function block enabled approach is introduced. It is expected that the new approach can largely enhance the dynamism of fluctuating job shop operations.
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Fabre, J. P., and Warren T. Wood. "Uncertainty of transmission loss due to small scale fluctuations of sound speed in two environments." In ICA 2013 Montreal. ASA, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1121/1.4800898.

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Kaddour, Mejdi. "Robust routing and link scheduling in cognitive radio networks under channel uncertainty and demand fluctuations." In 2016 13th IEEE Annual Consumer Communications & Networking Conference (CCNC). IEEE, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ccnc.2016.7444758.

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Syarifuddin, Ferry. "The Exchange Rate Volatility in Indonesia and Policy Response." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c05.00886.

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High fluctuation of exchange rate in short horizon is obviously making economic activity more risky as uncertainty rises. Moreover, volatile exchange rates also make commodity prices, interest rates and a host of other variables more volatile as well. Although changes in long-run exchange rates tend to undergo relatively gradual shifts, in the shorter horizon, the exchange rate might be very volatile. Then there should be a systematic and measured policy to mitigate the foreign exchange fluctuations and to minimize the fluctuations as well as to drive it to its fundamental value. In this part, USD/IDR volatility is investigated using GARCH approach. The results reveal that, USD/IDR volatility in Indonesia is persistent. On the other hand, the following studies also present the outcomes of effectiveness of policy response by the Central Bank. Foreign-exchange sale interventions by the Central Bank lead conditional volatility of the USD/IDR to decrease slightly.
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Han, Jeongwoo, and Panos Papalambros. "Optimal Design of Hybrid Electric Fuel Cell Vehicles Under Uncertainty and Enterprise Considerations." In ASME 2008 6th International Conference on Fuel Cell Science, Engineering and Technology. ASMEDC, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/fuelcell2008-65111.

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System research on Hybrid Electric Fuel Cell Vehicles (HEFCV) explores the tradeoffs among safety, fuel economy, acceleration, and other vehicle attributes. In addition to engineering considerations, inclusion of business aspects is important in a preliminary vehicle design optimization study. For a new technology, such as fuel cells, it is also important to include uncertainties stemming from manufacturing variability to market response to fuel price fluctuations. This paper applies a decomposition-based multidisciplinary design optimization strategy to an HEFCV. Uncertainty propagated throughout the system is accounted for in a computationally efficient manner. The latter is achieved with a new coordination strategy based on sequential linearizations. The hierarchically partitioned HEFCV design model includes enterprise, powertrain, fuel cell, and battery subsystem models. In addition to engineering uncertainties, the model takes into account uncertain behavior by consumers, and the expected maximum profit is calculated using probabilistic consumer preferences while satisfying engineering feasibility constraints.
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Reports on the topic "Uncertainty and fluctuations"

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Bloom, Nicholas. Fluctuations in Uncertainty. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, December 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w19714.

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Creal, Drew, and Jing Cynthia Wu. Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, October 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w20594.

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Chiang, Yu-Ting. Attention and Fluctuations in Macroeconomic Uncertainty. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.20955/wp.2022.004.

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Alessandria, George, Horag Choi, Joseph Kaboski, and Virgiliu Midrigan. Microeconomic Uncertainty, International Trade, and Aggregate Fluctuations. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, October 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w20616.

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Unal, Beyza, Julia Cournoyer, Calum Inverarity, and Yasmin Afina. Uncertainty and complexity in nuclear decision-making. Royal Institute of International Affairs, March 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.55317/9781784135157.

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Complex systems modelling is already implemented in critical policy areas such as climate change and health. It could also play an important role in the nuclear weapons sphere – by opening alternative pathways that may help mitigate risks of confrontation and escalation – but such modelling has yet to be fully embraced by policymakers in this community. By applying a complexity lens, policy- and decision-makers at all stages along the nuclear chain of command might better understand how their actions could have significant consequences for international security and peace. Nuclear decision-making is shaped by, and interacts with, the ever-changing international security environment and nuclear weapons policy. Tackling problems in the nuclear weapons policy field requires the implementation of ‘system of systems’ design principles, mathematical modelling approaches and multidisciplinary analysis. This research paper presents nuclear weapons decision-making as a complex endeavour, with individual decisions being influenced by multiple factors such as reasoning, intuition (gut feeling), biases and system-level noise. At a time of crisis, these factors may combine to cause risks of escalation. The authors draw on past examples of near nuclear use to examine decision-making in the nuclear context as a ‘wicked problem’, with multi-layered, interacting and constantly fluctuating elements.
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Bielinskyi, Andriy, Serhiy Semerikov, Oleksandr Serdiuk, Victoria Solovieva, Vladimir Soloviev, and Lukáš Pichl. Econophysics of sustainability indices. [б. в.], October 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.31812/123456789/4118.

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In this paper, the possibility of using some econophysical methods for quantitative assessment of complexity measures: entropy (Shannon, Approximate and Permutation entropies), fractal (Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis – MF-DFA), and quantum (Heisenberg uncertainty principle) is investigated. Comparing the capability of both entropies, it is obtained that both measures are presented to be computationally efficient, robust, and useful. Each of them detects patterns that are general for crisis states. The similar results are for other measures. MF-DFA approach gives evidence that Dow Jones Sustainability Index is multifractal, and the degree of it changes significantly at different periods. Moreover, we demonstrate that the quantum apparatus of econophysics has reliable models for the identification of instability periods. We conclude that these measures make it possible to establish that the socially responsive exhibits characteristic patterns of complexity, and the proposed measures of complexity allow us to build indicators-precursors of critical and crisis phenomena.
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December 2019 issue – The Bridge. ACAMH, November 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.13056/acamh.9715.

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Summaries include; if parental consanguinity predicts the severity of Autistic symptoms; study the transmission of intergenerational anxiety in families; systematic review into the effectiveness of available interventions to treat PTSD; the efficacy of teacher assessments vs exams to assess performance in UK schools; relationship between intolerance of uncertainty and extreme demand avoidance in young people with Autism; and how fluctuations in external environmental noise affect the developing Autonomic Nervous System in babies.
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