Academic literature on the topic 'UK natural gas market'

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Journal articles on the topic "UK natural gas market"

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Hobæk Haff, Ingrid, Ola Lindqvist, and Anders Løland. "Risk premium in the UK natural gas forward market." Energy Economics 30, no. 5 (September 2008): 2420–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2007.12.002.

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van Goor, Harm, and Bert Scholtens. "Modeling natural gas price volatility: The case of the UK gas market." Energy 72 (August 2014): 126–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2014.05.016.

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Devine, Mel T., James P. Gleeson, John Kinsella, and David M. Ramsey. "A Rolling Optimisation Model of the UK Natural Gas Market." Networks and Spatial Economics 14, no. 2 (January 29, 2014): 209–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11067-013-9216-4.

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Kremser, Thomas, and Margarethe Rammerstorfer. "Predictive Performance and Bias: Evidence from Natural Gas Markets." Journal of Management and Sustainability 7, no. 2 (May 30, 2017): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/jms.v7n2p1.

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This paper sheds light on the differences and similarities in natural gas trading at the National Balancing Point in the UK and the Henry Hub located in the US. For this, we analyze traders’ expectations and implement a mechanical forecasting model that allows traders to predict future spot prices. Based on this, we compute the deviations between expected and realized spot prices and analyze possible reasons and dependencies with other market variables. Overall, the mechanical predictor performs well, but a small forecast error remains which can not be characterized by the explanatory variables included.
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Acquah-Andoh, Elijah, Augustine Ifelebuegu, and Stephen Theophilus. "Brexit and UK Energy Security: Perspectives from Unconventional Gas Investment and the Effects of Shale Gas on UK Energy Prices." Energies 12, no. 4 (February 14, 2019): 600. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en12040600.

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Many aspects of the present and future effects on the UK economy, industry, and households, of Brexit have been researched. One thing which appears certain about Brexit is the shadow of uncertainty it casts on the future of business in the UK and its telling effects on the UK economy. It is believed that Brexit has negatively affected the level of investments in the UK, including investments in energy and crucially the upstream oil and gas, with the UK North Sea being starved of investments since 2014, leading already to increased energy bills. The UK is a net importer of natural gas—a major source of its energy, with some dependence on supplies from interconnectors from Europe. At the same time, UK energy companies participate in the common energy market which enables them to undertake arbitrage trading under the common market rules. However, both of these benefits could be lost under a Brexit scenario where the UK and EU come to a no-deal or hard border arrangement. Meanwhile, domestic production of energy in the UK has declined for nearly two decades now and import bills for natural gas are growing—they were £14.2 billion in 2017; £11.7 billion in 2016 and £13.4 billion in 2015—with Government projections indicating an upward trajectory for natural gas imports. It is however believed that the UK has great potential to exploit shale gas to her advantage in order to reduce her reliance on foreign energy which is: (1) less predictable in terms of supply and price affordability and (2) dependent on exchange rates—a primary means through which energy prices increased in 2016/17 post-Brexit referendum vote. The current study extends discussions on shale gas to cover a review of the potential of natural gas from shale formations to cushion UK households against further erratic gas prices due to Brexit and also assesses the potential effects Brexit may have had on the level of investments in shale gas, in order to suggest policy options for government consideration. Contrary to popular studies, we find evidence to suggest that shale gas has the potential to reduce energy prices for UK businesses and households at commercial extractions, under both hard and soft Brexit scenarios, but with more benefits under hard Brexit. Importantly, we find that from 2008 to 2017, average UK net export of natural gas was 5,191 GWh per year to the EU. We also find and argue that Brexit may have starved the nascent fracking industry of investments in a similar way it did to investments in conventional oil and gas and could have increased investor risk premium for shale gas development, the ultimate effect of which was a categorisation of fracking (company stock) as riskier asset for investors on the London Stock Exchange. We recommend that shale gas development be expedited to maximise its benefits to UK energy consumers post-Brexit or economic benefits from the resource could be diminished by rising operator costs due to delays and effects of the public’s perceived negative opinion of the method of extraction.
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Timitimi, Bodisere T. "An Examination of the Nigerian Gas Law and Policy: Facilitating Domestic Gas." American Journal of Law 4, no. 2 (October 20, 2022): 35–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.47672/ajl.1237.

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The Federal Government of Nigeria based on its sizable gas reserves, identified the need for accelerated development of the gas industry as a focal strategy for achieving the national aspiration of aggressive GDP growth. Endowed with energy resources, Nigeria has about 188tcf of proven reserves. Active power plants are mainly gas-fired, but they face feedstock shortages, as a result of a dearth of infrastructure investment. Nigeria’s gas industry is still in its infant stage unlike the UK and US. Oil and gas companies have historically flared natural gas into the environment mainly because it was considered an oil by-product and not an economic product. The development of a domestic market today is the top of the government's agenda. The Federal Government recently approved the Nigerian National Gas Policy 2017. The goal as highlighted in the policy is the commercialization of gas to boost the economy, electricity undoubtedly being central to economic growth. This paper discusses, gas pricing, unbundling and open access and the Domestic Gas Obligation. The purpose of this study is to highlight various areas of improvement and provide an analysis of existing laws and policy. Results suggest that market liberalization and increase in private sector involvement are the two strengths agreed upon. In addition, the participants concur on the importance of increasing share of LNG in the total natural gas supply.
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Devine, Mel T., and Marianna Russo. "Liquefied natural gas and gas storage valuation: Lessons from the integrated Irish and UK markets." Applied Energy 238 (March 2019): 1389–406. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.01.157.

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Dominguez-Gonzalez, German, Jose Ignacio Muñoz-Hernandez, Derek Bunn, and Carlos Jesus Garcia-Checa. "Integration of Hydrogen and Synthetic Natural Gas within Legacy Power Generation Facilities." Energies 15, no. 12 (June 20, 2022): 4485. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en15124485.

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Whilst various new technologies for power generation are continuously being evaluated, the owners of almost-new facilities, such as combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plants, remain motivated to adapt these to new circumstances and avoid the balance-sheet financial impairments of underutilization. Not only are the owners reluctant to decommission the legacy CCGT assets, but system operators value the inertia and flexibilities they contribute to a system becoming predominated with renewable generation. This analysis therefore focuses on the reinvestment cases for adapting CCGT to hydrogen (H2), synthetic natural gas (SNG) and/or retrofitted carbon capture and utilization systems (CCUS). Although H2, either by itself or as part of SNG, has been evaluated attractively for longer-term electricity storage, the business case for how it can be part of a hybrid legacy CCGT system has not been analyzed in a market context. This work compares the power to synthetic natural gas to power (PSNGP) adaptation with the simpler and less expensive power to hydrogen to power (P2HP) adaptation. Both the P2HP and PSNGP configurations are effective in terms of decarbonizations. The best results of the feasibility analysis for a UK application with low CCGT load factors (around 31%) were obtained for 100% H2 (P2HP) in the lower range of wholesale electricity prices (less than 178 GBP/MWh), but in the higher range of prices, it would be preferable to use the PSNGP configuration with a low proportion of SNG (25%). If the CCGT load factor increased to 55% (the medium scenario), the breakeven profitability point between P2HP and PSNGP decreased to a market price of 145 GBP/MWh. Alternatively, with the higher load factors (above 77%), satisfactory results were obtained for PSNGP using 50% SNG if with market prices above 185 GBP/MWh.
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Tveten, Åsa Grytli, and Torjus Folsland Bolkesjø. "Energy system impacts of the Norwegian-Swedish TGC market." International Journal of Energy Sector Management 10, no. 1 (April 4, 2016): 69–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijesm-07-2014-0003.

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Purpose – The purpose of this study is to analyze the power market and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission effects of the joint Norwegian–Swedish tradable green certificates (TGCs) market, which is established to support investments according to a 26.4 TWh increased annual renewable electricity generation (REG) by 2020. Design/methodology/approach – The study applies an energy system model with high granularity in time and space, and detailed power system data for the Nordic countries, Germany, The Netherlands and UK. Findings – The results show that the TGC scheme will cause a 8.7-9.3 /MWh reduction in average electricity prices in the Nordic countries. The price decrease will to a limited extent pass through to Germany, The Netherlands and UK. When assuming a low carbon price level, the new REG will reduce annual GHG emissions by 10.9 Mtonnes in 2020, primarily through substitution of German natural gas power. A sensitivity analysis shows that the GHG emission effect of the TGCs is highly sensitive to changes in the carbon price. Investment levels up to a 90 TWh increased REG per year are found to cause increasing GHG emission reductions. Originality/value – The study results signal the importance of taking the TGC policy into account in decision-making processes in the Northern European power system, in particular for market actors in the Nordic area. The authors conclude that the Nordic countries potentially can play a vital role in a future Northern European low carbon power system through export of green balancing power, substitution of thermal power and reduced GHG emissions from the Northern European power sector.
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Shishikin, V. G. "BRITISH FUEL AND ENERGY INDUSTRY DURING THE 1967 AND 1973–1974 OIL CRISES." Вестник Пермского университета. История, no. 4(59) (2022): 40–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.17072/2219-3111-2022-4-40-50.

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The article examines the development of three key components of the UK fuel and energy industry during the 1967 and 1973–1974 oil crises. The object of research was studied in the context of European energy policy, which in the 1960s–1970s was codified in a form of directives and was practically implemented by creating fuel reserves in case of a decrease in fuel supplies from the Middle East. The article focuses on the special place the UK held in the EEC, and specific policy that the country maintained to develop the national fuel and energy industry. All this is because the UK had an elaborate management system within the industry, possessed significant amount of energy resources and owned prospective fuel fields in the North Sea, discovered in the mid-1960s. During the researched period, the UK government implemented measures targeted at the reduction of the national coal mining industry, which failed to meet economic needs of the country. At the same time, the UK started the development of oil and gas fields in the North Sea, which gained momentum after the 1967 and 1973–1974 oil crises were over. The management structures of gas and coal industries served as an interface of the national energy industry. This enabled the government to consistently substitute coal with natural gas, while still allowing it to play a significant role in the economy. Oil exploration and production companies with a high degree of autonomy adopted an independent policy while working on domestic and foreign markets. However, they suffered the most during the 1973–1974 crisis, which led to a partial loss of the national fuel market, an increase in prices on resources, and a strain in their relations with the government. In conclusion, the author states that the developed fuel and energy industry, fuel fields’ exploitation and validated management techniques allowed the UK to smooth out the effects of the 1967 and 1973–1974 crises and continue the modernization of the national fuel industry in the years to come.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "UK natural gas market"

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Nuriyev, G. "Economics of segmented natural gas market." Thesis, Queen's University Belfast, 2011. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.546401.

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Bloemhof, Barbara Lynn Mestelman Stuart. "Market power and the sale of Ontario residential natural gas: An institutional analysis and a laboratory experiment." *McMaster only, 2004.

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Dahl, Hans Jørgen. "Norwegian natural gas transportation systems : Operations in a liberalized European gas market." Doctoral thesis, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Engineering Science and Technology, 2001. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:no:ntnu:diva-552.

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The main hypothesis tested in this work is:

“It is possible to operate future Norwegian natural gas transportation systems at a level that is approximately optimal, technically and economically, with major stakeholders duly attending to requirements specified in the Norwegian statutory framework and in the implemented “Gas Directive.”

In order to test this hypothesis a multidisciplinary systems approach has been applied that includes analyses based on fluidmechanics and thermodynamics, economic theory and constrained by the prevailing and future legislative requirements. Operational experiences and empirical data also support the analyses.

It is assumed in this work that the introduction of the European Union’s Gas Directive will result in some new or altered legal requirements for how to conduct future Norwegian natural gas transport operations. The work has identified these new requirements and the work has suggested realistic solutions for how to conduct future operations. The author therefore concludes that the main hypothesis above is true provided five recommendations are observed.

The first recommendation is to implement into the Norwegian legislation provisions that make possible two core requirements of the Gas Directive. The first provision is to allow domestic gas sellers to compete in the downstream market by marketing and selling their gas individually. The second provision is to allow access to the transportation systems for those stakeholders who according to the Gas Directive are defined as “eligible customers” and “natural gas undertakings”, i.e. the future shippers.

The second recommendation follows as consequence of the latter provision and it recommends the future Norwegian regulatory regime to incorporate three main features. First, the transportation system is to be operated by an organization unit that has a transparent account on its transportation services or alternatively by an organization (i.e. the operator) that is functionally separated from and does not participate in any gas marketing and sales activities.

Secondly, and due to the fact that the Norwegian natural gas transportation systems are highly physically integrated it is recommended to have one and only one transportation system operator. Only one operator will be in the best position to enhance cost efficiency in daily operations, energy efficiency, resource management in daily operations, optimized utilization and optimized gas blending.

Thirdly, new and altered transportation services must be designed to meet the future needs and requirements of the shippers and these services must be offered to all shippers. The latter feature is elaborated in the third recommendation.

The third recommendation is to redefine and develop new transportation services that support shippers’ elastic demands for transportation services, both during periods of sufficient capacity as well as during peak load periods.

The above recommendation will imply that the future transportation services must comprise firm services i.e. booked and guaranteed transportation, and interruptible services i.e. transportation being interrupted either during off-peak periods or during peak periods as well as peak load services i.e. transportation services offered during peak load periods. The services must be offered to all shippers in an equal and impartial manner and be supported by a transparent and feasible tariff and toll regime. The toll regime must feature several properties that ensure recovery of fixed costs, cost efficiency in operations and maintenance, and rationing efficiency and this work recommends that the future toll regime shall be reasonable and fair and cost-based.

This work has identified that the existing toll regime does not feature all of the above properties and this work therefore suggests that the existing toll regime is re-designed and extended to include new elements. The first recommendation is to re-design the existing toll formula so that it acts as a two-part toll for firm capacity.

The fixed part of the toll shall act as a booking charge or capacity charge and it shall cover the financial costs based on the historic investment costs for the pipeline systems. It shall also include the fixed (annual) operations and maintenance costs, and any new costs for incremental new investments. The variable part of the toll may be set equal to average marginal costs per unit of gas, or be paid “in kind” as done in the current regime.

Further, a unitization of the fixed part of the firm toll is suggested here. The unitization shall include all pipelines that comprise the dry gas system. This means that the fixed part of the firm toll shall be calculated as an average fixed toll based on the historic investment costs for all the pipelines included. The unitization schema shall include the existing ship-or-pay contracts and any new firm contracts in the dry gas system.

The unitization will accomplish a possibility for eliminating specific shipper’s preferences for where to physically route gas in the dry gas system. This will subsequently improve rationing efficiency at high levels of utilization of the system when there is a concurrent need for auctioning of spare capacity. This is due to the physical behavior of the integrated system as any “internal” pre-booked routing in the system effectively may reduce the total throughput and thus a rationing efficient utilization of the system.

The above recommendations mean that the firm toll shall be charged as a “postage-stamp” toll for all pipeline systems comprising the dry gas systems. This means in practical terms that the dry gas system is to be considered as one zone only and pre-defined entry points and exit points must be established.

As a consequence of unitizing the toll for firm capacity either a unitization of the ownership structure must be done or a payment mechanism must be in force that secures the pipeline owners no extra profit or loss due to the introduction of unitization.

A new two-part toll formula that in its form is equal to the firm capacity toll is recommended for covering interruptible off-peak services. It is recommended to set the fixed part of the toll lower than the fixed part of the firm toll.

A new toll must be developed and be based on auctioning principles for allocation of spare capacity in the system during peak load periods. In order to facilitate the auction a tool is required for predicting the level of spare capacity that is available from time to time. This tool is also needed for optimizing the total throughput based on the different auction bids. In a similar manner as for the firm toll, the auction bids shall refer to a unitized dry gas system and the bids shall refer to transportation requests between any of the pre-defined entry and exits points. No shipper shall thus have a right to specify “internal” routing in the dry gas system.

The total revenues for the pipeline system owners shall not yield higher profits than the allowable regulated return and the balance shall be levied – at least in theory – the firm transportation shippers only. It is recommended to conduct such reallocations of revenues periodically.

The fourth recommendation is related to the necessity of changing documents and requirements, altering organizational forms and working processes, and how current incentive structures will be affected. All these issues will be influenced by an implementation of the Gas Directive. The work has briefly discussed these issues, but due to the many uncertainties no detailed assessments are conducted or recommendations given. The work has however indicated that a majority of the documents assessed in this work must be revised and updated to reflect the new requirements caused by liberalization. It is recommended here that the governing documents more clearly specify which new responsibilities the independent transportation system operator shall be assigned. A vital area of concern is how the transportation system operator and the shippers’ and sellers’ dispatching representatives shall communicate and perform their duties in the future. To day these functions are highly integrated, but liberalization will make them counterparts.

Further, a detailed specification of the future working processes for the independent transportation system operator must be clarified. This applies especially for the how to optimize the operations in a liberalized context. New and carefully designed incentives are needed for enhancing optimal usage of the network during capacity constraints.

The last recommendation regards allocative and dynamic efficiency in a liberalized context. In the prevailing regime the individual company acts normally both as shipper and pipeline system owner. This regime ensures proper incentives for cost efficient development of new capacity and cost efficient operations and this regime may continue to exist in a liberalized context. This regime will continue to create proper incentives for allocative and dynamic efficiently in a liberalized context as well.

Further, in order to enhance allocative and dynamic efficiency on the Norwegian Continental Shelf a centralized planning and development system must be in force in order to secure resource management and utilization of the significant conditions for economy of scale. The transportation system operator must have a close liaison with these functions in order to share information about operational experiences, capacity constraints and shadow prices on capacity of constraints.

Finally, the work has provided several observations that show how a systems approach is quite attractive for finding solutions to complex and multidisciplinary problems as considered in this work. The systems approach applied here consists of two engineering processes comprising well-defined activities. These activities comprise assessment of information, definition of effectiveness measures and creation of information models. Trade-offs are identified between contradicting requirements and the outcome of the processes is accurate descriptions of the systems operations in the prevailing context and to some extent also in a future context. The systems engineering processes have included several methodologies to solve specific tasks. Several analyses based on economic and technical theories are included, as imperative activities required for solving the problems.

The ultimate results of a systems approach are solutions that go beyond traditional and non-disciplinary approaches. This is particularly true if the objective is to find concrete and sound solutions applicable in a “real-world” context where specific stakeholders’ needs and legal requirements are present and well defined. Several observations are provided in the work showing how economic analyses are improved by combining them with technical theory, empirical data, operational experiences and last but not least: legal requirements.

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Easaw, Joshy Zachariah. "Network access regulation and competition policy : the UK contract gas market." Thesis, University of Leicester, 1998. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/30156.

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Increasingly policy-makers and regulatory theorists have focused on network access regulation. This thesis examines the role of network access regulation as part of a regulator's overall competition policy or strategy to introduce competition into privatised industries. It examines in detail recent theoretical models of network access regulation. The analysis is undertaken in the context of the UK contract gas market. British Gas (BG) was privatised in 1986, and the gas industry structure remained vertically integrated. The incumbent, or in the present case, BG, retains control of the gas network transmission while competing in the final goods, or retail, market. The present research provides a theoretical framework examining the impact of regulatory and competition policies with respect to both the final goods market and network access, on the competitive process in the contract gas market. This is done using a unique dataset on the UK contract gas market made available by a leading gas analyst and broker; John Hall Associates. The theoretical analysis distinguishes between the potential strategic advantage of both BG and the main competing shippers. BG, as the incumbent in the vertically integrated industry, has pre-entry advantages, while the main competing shippers who are wholly or partially owned by North Sea gas producers and operate as downstream firms in the retail market potentially have post-entry advantage. The entrants pricing behaviour followed a distinct and separate path to that of BG's. An empirical analysis of the entrants' pricing behaviour is conducted. This is done within the context of supergames or repeated games explanation of dynamic oligopoly behaviour. The relationship between access charges and market structure, or the level of market concentration is also empirically established, which shows the impact of access charges on the competitive process, market structure and final goods prices. The estimates are used to give an empirical application of the "Direct-plus-Opportunity Cost Regime" (DORC) model of access pricing. Consequently, the various policy options and choices open to a policy-maker are considered.
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Rüster, Sophia. "Vertical Structures in the Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market." Doctoral thesis, Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2010. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-38831.

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During the last decade, the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market altered substantially. Significant investments have been realized, traded volumes increased and contracting structures gained in flexibility. Various governance forms co-exist, including the poles of spot market transactions and vertical integration as well as numerous hybrid forms such as long-term contracts, joint ventures, and strategic partnerships. This dissertation empirically investigates, based on transaction cost economics and recent extensions thereof, which motivations drive companies towards the choice of hierarchical governance forms. First, the likelihood of vertical integration and the impact of inter-organizational trust as a shift parameter accounting for differences in the institutional environment are analyzed. Estimation results confirm transaction cost economics by showing that relationship-specific investments in an uncertain environment drive LNG companies to invest in successive stages along the value chain. Furthermore, the presence of inter-organizational trust increases the likelihood of less hierarchical governance modes. Second, alternative theories of the firm are linked in order to explain the menu of strategic positions recently observed in this dynamic market. Estimation results support the positioning-economizing perspective of the firm. The three strategic choices of target market position, resource profile, and organizational structure are interdependent. Third, the determinants of optimal contract length as a trade-off between the minimization of transaction costs due to repeated bilateral bargaining and the risk of being bound in an inflexible agreement in uncertain environments is discussed. Estimation results show that the presence of high asset specificity results in longer contracts whereas the need for flexibility in today’s LNG market supports shorter agreements. When firms have experience in bilateral trading, contract duration decreases. In addition, countries heavily reliant on natural gas imports via LNG are often willing to forgo some flexibility in favor of supply security. Contracts dedicated to competitive downstream markets on average are shorter than those concluded with customers in non-liberalized importing countries.
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Rikter-Svendsen, Torstein, Cecilie Nilsen Kielland, and Bjørn Heineman. "Price-Volatility Modeling in the US Natural Gas Market." Thesis, Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet, Institutt for industriell økonomi og teknologiledelse, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:no:ntnu:diva-21064.

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Understanding price-volatility in the natural gas market is important as it affects new investments and the behavior of market participants. In this paper the volatility of US natural gas prices is investigated using daily Henry Hub futures data for the period 1996 to 2011. The purpose is to determine the best conditional volatility model for forecasting and modeling, and to investigate the fundamental drivers of volatility. Several models are applied and compared on the basis of explanatory power, post-estimation tests, as well as in- and out-of-sample one-day-ahead forecasting capabilities evaluated using the Dynamic Quantile Test and Kupiec LR test. Based on these evaluation criteria EGARCH is found superior to GARCH, GJR, IGARCH, RiskMetrics and APARCH. Additionally, EGARCH is found satisfactory when evaluating 5, 10 and 20-day-ahead forecasts using the Kupiec LR test on Monte Carlo simulated VaR levels. To investigate the drivers of volatility, proxies for each determinant are included in the conditional volatility models and in an OLS framework. Economic activity, seasonality and daily effects are found to be statistical significant, with the daily effects having the largest influence, while oil volatility, changes in temperature, production and storage levels are insignificant. From the results it can be concluded that if the aim of the conditional volatility modeling is short-term forecasting, the determinants should be excluded as they do not improve forecasting accuracy. Conversely, if the aim is to explain the causes of volatility, the in-sample evaluation indicate that the inclusion of determinants is a reasonable approach, and a good foundation for scenario analyses. Our findings are useful for producers, traders, risk managers and other market participants as they provide an accurate measure of price risk, and can be used to understand the causes of volatility.
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Jonsson, Bo. "Natural gas in the Asian Pacific region : market behavior and the Japanese electricity market /." Luleå, 2001. http://epubl.luth.se/1402-1544/2001/17/index.html.

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Zhuang, Jifang. "A stochastic equilibrium model for the North American natural gas market." College Park, Md. : University of Maryland, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1903/2885.

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Thesis (Ph. D.) -- University of Maryland, College Park, 2005.
Thesis research directed by: Civil Engineering. Title from t.p. of PDF. Includes bibliographical references. Published by UMI Dissertation Services, Ann Arbor, Mich. Also available in paper.
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Cahill, Steven. "Efficient Market Forecasts Utilizing NYMEX Futures and Options." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 1998. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/36816.

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This study develops a method for estimating confidence intervals surrounding futures based forecasts of natural gas prices. The method utilizes the Barone-Adesi and Whaley model for option valuation to "back-out" the market's assessment of the annualized standard deviation of natural gas futures prices. The various implied standard deviations are then weighted and combined to form a single weighted implied standard deviation following the procedures outlined by Chiras and Manaster. This option implied weighted standard deviation is then tested against the more traditional "historical" measure of the standard deviation. The paper then develops the procedure to transform the weighted standard deviation and futures price into a price range at the option expiration date. The accuracy of this forecast is then tested against 15 and 30 day average forecasts.
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MENDES, ANDRE GUSTAVO S. TEIXEIRA. "IMPACTS DUE TO THE CREATION OF A SECONDARY MARKET OF NATURAL GAS." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2006. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=9444@1.

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PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO
O desenvolvimento da indústria de Gás Natural pelo mundo resultou em um processo de integração entre os setores de gás natural e eletricidade em diversos países. Entretanto, em alguns casos, como o Brasil, apesar de a demanda de gás para uso convencional (industrial, comercial, residencial, GNV) ter crescido a taxas relativamente altas, ela sozinha ainda não justifica novos grandes investimentos na produção e no transporte de gás. Verifica-se que, neste caso, o setor de energia desempenha um papel indispensável por se tratar do maior mercado potencial de gás natural, com a escala suficiente para ser a âncora de demanda que viabiliza os investimentos em produção e transporte do gás. Todavia, devido à predominância hidrológica no sistema elétrico Brasileiro, o despacho das térmicas é bastante volátil e, por conseqüência, o consumo de gás das térmicas é bastante variável. Assim, o produtor de gás está sujeito a um fluxo de caixa muito volátil e incerto e cláusulas de compra compulsória de gás (takeor-pay) e de remuneração do custo da infra-estrutura (ship-or-pay) são observadas. Enquanto estas cláusulas trazem certeza necessária para viabilizar a produção, elas oneram excessivamente os custos das Usinas Térmicas, que se vêem obrigadas a pagar pelo combustível e, portanto, gerar, mesmo quando o preço da energia esteja inferior ao seu custo marginal de produção. Tendo em vista este cenário, foi recentemente discutida no âmbito do Governo Federal a criação de um mercado flexível de gás natural, onde contratos interruptiveis de gás (lastreados no take-or-pay das térmicas) seriam fornecidos a consumidores industriais. Nestes contratos, o fornecimento seria interrompido se a Usina Térmica fosse despachada. O objetivo desta tese é analisar a criação deste mercado sob a ótica dos consumidores. Será verificada a disposição a pagar por um contrato interruptível de gás levando em consideração a incerteza associada ao suprimento (que depende da prioridade de uso do gás pelas térmicas) e o perfil de risco destes consumidores.
With the development of the gas industry worldwide, a process of strengthening the integration between the natural gas and the electricity sectors is underway in several countries. However, although gas demand has been growing at relatively high rates, this demand growth solely is unlikely to justify new large investments in gas production and transportation. This means that the power sector ends up being the largest potential market for natural gas, with the needed scale to provide the necessary anchor demand to spur these production and infrastructure investments. The hydro predominance in the country creates volatility on the dispatch of the gas-fired plants, which ends up creating an undesirable (from the gas-sector point of view) volatility in the natural gas consumption. Since the gas-market is still incipient, gas contracts are typically of long-term with high take or pay and ship or pay clauses to ensure financing of the production- transportation infrastructure. From the power sector point of view, these clauses are undesirable: due to the uncertainty of dispatch gas-based generators want to negotiate a higher flexibility. As such, the aim of this work is to determine the impacts due to the creation of a flexible (secondary) gas market from the costumers´ point of view. It will be also developed the costumers´ willto- contract curve, which will take into account the uncertainty of thermoelectric dispatch (that rules the gas availability over this new proposed market) and the risk-profile of costumers.
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Books on the topic "UK natural gas market"

1

Oxford Institute for Energy Studies., ed. Gas prices in the UK: Markets and insecurity of supply. Oxford: Oxford University Press for the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, 2006.

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Stern, Jonathan P. Gas's contribution to UK self-sufficiency. Aldershot: Gower, 1985.

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Hewitt, Carol J. 1993 natural gas market outlook. Sacramento, CA: California Energy Commission, 1993.

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Nawaz, Sameer. Natural gas in Asia. London: Pearson Professional, 1995.

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Natural gas in the UK: Options to 2000. Aldershot, Hants, England: Gower Pub. Co., 1986.

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Corali, Enrico. The Italian natural gas market evolution. Milano: F. Angeli, 2001.

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Corali, Enrico. The Italian natural gas market evolution. Milano: F. Angeli, 2001.

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Board, Canada National Energy. Natural gas market assessment, 1989-1991. Ottawa: The Board, 1989.

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Gilardoni, Andrea. The World Market for Natural Gas. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-68208-0.

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Board, Canada National Energy. Natural gas market assessment: Price convergence in North American natural gas markets. Calgary, Alta: National Energy Board, 1995.

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Book chapters on the topic "UK natural gas market"

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Simpson, John L. "Natural Gas Market Liberalization: An Examination of UK and US Futures and Spot Prices." In Energy Economics and Financial Markets, 175–94. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-30601-3_10.

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Geman, Hélyette, and Bo Liu. "Introducing Distances Between Commodity Markets: The Case of the US and UK Natural Gas." In Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics, 93–105. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-45875-5_4.

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Kopp, Sandu-Daniel. "The UK Gas Market." In Politics, Markets and EU Gas Supply Security, 91–179. Wiesbaden: Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-08324-3_4.

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Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. "Natural Gas Market." In Energy Economics, 647–82. London: Springer London, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-7468-4_22.

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Gabriel, Steven A., Antonio J. Conejo, J. David Fuller, Benjamin F. Hobbs, and Carlos Ruiz. "Natural Gas Market Modeling." In Complementarity Modeling in Energy Markets, 433–76. New York, NY: Springer New York, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-6123-5_10.

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Pustišek, Andrej, and Michael Karasz. "Market Data." In Natural Gas: A Commercial Perspective, 11–24. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-53249-3_3.

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Ishwaran, Mallika, William King, Martin Haigh, TaoLiang Lee, and Shangyou Nie. "The Global Natural Gas Market." In China’s Gas Development Strategies, 345–78. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-59734-8_17.

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Jessen, Peter. "Experiences from the Liberalized UK Gas Market." In Risk Management in der Energiewirtschaft, 41–50. Wiesbaden: Gabler Verlag, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-322-84569-6_3.

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Lesourd, Jean-Baptiste, Jacques Percebois, and Jean-Michel Ruiz. "Modelling the international natural gas market: the case of the Western European natural gas market." In International Commodity Market Models, 197–207. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-3084-4_10.

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Baranes, Edmond, François Mirabel, and Jean-Christophe Poudou. "Natural Gas Storage and Market Power." In The Economics of Natural Gas Storage, 31–54. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-79407-3_3.

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Conference papers on the topic "UK natural gas market"

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Nikpey Somehsaraei, Homam, Usman Ali, Carolina Font-Palma, Mohammad Mansouri Majoumerd, Muhammad Akram, Mohamed Pourkashanian, and Mohsen Assadi. "Evaluation of a Micro Gas Turbine With Post-Combustion CO2 Capture for Exhaust Gas Recirculation Potential With Two Experimentally Validated Models." In ASME Turbo Expo 2017: Turbomachinery Technical Conference and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/gt2017-63551.

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The growing global energy demand is facing concerns raised by increasing greenhouse gas emissions, predominantly CO2. Despite substantial progress in the field of renewable energy in recent years, quick balancing responses and back-up services are still necessary to maintain the grid load and stability, due to increased penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind. In a scenario of natural gas availability, gas turbine power may be a substitute for back-up/balancing load. Rapid start-up and shut down, high ramp rate, and low emissions and maintenance have been achieved in commercial gas turbine cycles. This industry still needs innovative cycle configurations, e.g. exhaust gas recirculation (EGR), to achieve higher system performance and lower emissions in the current competitive power generation market. Together with reduced NOx emissions, EGR cycle provides an exhaust gas with higher CO2 concentration compared to the simple gas turbine/combined cycle, favorable for post-combustion carbon capture. This paper presents an evaluation of EGR potential for improved gas turbine cycle performance and integration with a post-combustion CO2 capture process. It also highlights features of two software tools with different capabilities for performance analysis of gas turbine cycles, integrated with post-combustion capture. The study is based on a combined heat and power micro gas turbine (MGT), Turbec T100, of 100kWe output. Detailed models for the baseline MGT and amine capture plant were developed in two software tools, IPSEpro and Aspen Hysys. These models were validated against experimental work conducted at the UK PACT National Core Facilities. Characteristics maps for the compressor and the turbine were used for the MGT modeling. The performance indicators of systems with and without EGR, and when varying the EGR ratio and ambient temperature, were calculated and are presented in this paper.
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Abrell, Jan, Leo Chavaz, and Hannes Weigt. "Pathways for the European natural gas market." In 2016 13th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM). IEEE, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/eem.2016.7521360.

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Alam, Firoz, Quamrul Alam, Suman Reza, S. M. Khurshid-ul-Alam, Khondkar Saleque, and Saifuddin Ahsan. "Liquefied natural gas (LNG) market and Australia." In 7TH BSME INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THERMAL ENGINEERING. Author(s), 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4984736.

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Hauser, Philipp, Hannes Hobbie, and Dominik Most. "Resilience in the German natural gas network: Modelling approach for a high-resolution natural gas system." In 2017 14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM). IEEE, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/eem.2017.7981942.

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Padberg, U., and H. J. Haubrich. "Stochastic optimization of natural gas portfolios." In 2008 5th International Conference on the European Electricity Market (EEM 2008). IEEE, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/eem.2008.4579051.

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Dancey, J. R., V. A. Dancey, and L. S. Taylor. "Legal Duty To Market Natural Gas in a Declining Market." In SPE Production Operations Symposium. Society of Petroleum Engineers, 1987. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/16239-ms.

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Dancy, J. R., D. F. Yard, and V. A. Dancy. "FERC Orders and the Evolving Natural Gas Market." In SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium. Society of Petroleum Engineers, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/18915-ms.

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Enyi, Chimagwu G., and D. Appah. "Economics of Conditioning Nigerian Natural Gas for Market." In Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition. Society of Petroleum Engineers, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/98799-ms.

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Yang, Kai, and Lei Hou. "Using Machine Learning Tools for Forecasting Natural Gas Market Demand." In ASME 2020 Pressure Vessels & Piping Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/pvp2020-21378.

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Abstract Providing reliable and accurate forecasts of natural gas consumption can keep supply and demand of natural gas pipelines in balance, which can increase profits and reduce supply risks. In order to accurately predict the short-term load demand of different gas nodes in the natural gas pipeline network, a hybrid optimization strategy of integrated genetic optimization algorithm and support vector machine are proposed. Factors such as holidays, date types and weather were taken into account to build a natural gas daily load prediction model based on GA-SVM was established. A natural gas pipeline network in China includes three gas supply nodes of different user type gas is forecasted, and a variety of error evaluation method, the GA-SVM evaluation index compared with other prediction methods, and through different data set partition is discussed in the periods of peak gas and gas resources in the GA — the applicability of the SVM prediction model, the ends of a natural gas pipeline network in China includes four gas supply nodes of different user type gas is forecasted, and a variety of error evaluation method, the GA-SVM evaluation index compared with other prediction methods, The applicability of the method is also discussed by dividing different data sets. By predicting the gas load forecast of the three nodes, the results show that GA-SVM hybrid prediction model has high prediction accuracy compared with other single models, and the three gas nodes MAPE of GA-SVM is respectively 3.66%, 5.17% and 3.43%. Through further analysis, even with the data samples reduced, the winter gas peak of gas prediction can still maintain good prediction effects. The research shows that the GA-SVM model has high accuracy and strong applicability in predicting gas consumption at different nodes of the natural gas pipeline network. This study can provide a research basis for analysis of gas supply uncertainty and further gas supply reliability evaluation of pipeline network.
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Hubner, Michael, and Hans-Jurgen Haubrich. "Long-term planning of natural gas networks." In 2008 5th International Conference on the European Electricity Market (EEM 2008). IEEE, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/eem.2008.4579119.

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Reports on the topic "UK natural gas market"

1

Elkins, John. Natural Gas in the UK. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, February 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.26889/9781907555053.

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Alterman, Sofya. Natural Gas Price Volatility in the UK and North America. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, February 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.26889/9781907555435.

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Rzayeva, Gulmira. Natural Gas in the Turkish Domestic Energy Market. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, February 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.26889/9781907555930.

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DeMordaunt, Austin, Smriti Sharma, Merril Stypula, Corinne Charlton, and ShangMin Lin. Market Analysis: Upcycling Natural Gas Into Solid Carbon Products. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), January 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1838316.

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Hackworth, J. H., R. W. Koch, and A. J. Rezaiyan. Economic evaluation and market analysis for natural gas utilization. Topical report. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), April 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/211345.

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Huntington, Hillard G. Changing the Game?: Emissions and Market Implications of New Natural Gas Supplies. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), September 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1411245.

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Hubbard, R. Glenn, and Robert Weiner. Efficient Contracting and Market Power: Evidence from the U.S. Natural Gas Industry. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, October 1990. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w3502.

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Tamayo, Gonzalo, Gonzalo Ruiz, Diego Díaz, and Raúl García. Natural Gas Market Rigidities and the Promotion of NC-RER in Peru. Inter-American Development Bank, September 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0002690.

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Conzelmann, G., and T. Veselka. Miscellaneous: Uruguay energy supply options study assessing the market for natural gas - executive summary. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), March 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/934656.

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Davis, Lucas, and Lutz Kilian. The Allocative Cost of Price Ceilings in the U.S. Residential Market for Natural Gas. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, May 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w14030.

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