Journal articles on the topic 'Typhoons Pacific Area'
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1
Tan, Ji Qing, Hui Qi Li, and Zhao Xia Zheng. "New Climate Diagnostic Method of Activity of Typhoons over the Northwestern Pacific Ocean." Applied Mechanics and Materials 71-78 (July 2011): 3118–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.71-78.3118.
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A new conception, called the Most Direct Impact Area (MDIA) of typhoons, is put forward in this paper. After the computational method is explained in detail, the databank of 1955 typhoons of China Meteorological Administration (CMA) have been calculated on the Linux operational platform with a Fortran compiler in a computer. The results via calculating the geographic distribution of the MDIA of typhoons show that the characteristic of typhoon activity in a year can be easily identified in quantity. A most interesting feature has been found that typhoon activity is abnormally active over the ocean to the south of Japan in three typical El Niño years.
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Bo-yu, Chai, Xu Feng, Xu Jian-jun, Han Li-guo, Chen Si-Qi, LI Ya-jie, JI Qian-qian, Yang Jin-yi, Zhang Shao-jing, and LI Jia-jing. "The influence of radiation flux in Northwest Pacific on the Western Pacific warm pools and typhoons over the past 170 years." Environmental Research Communications 3, no. 12 (December 1, 2021): 125004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ac3ef5.
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Abstract Based on various statistical methods and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, this study analyzes the correlation of radiation flux of Northwest Pacific in the 100 years scale with the western Pacific warm pool and typhoon development. The key results are as follows. First, the surface downwelling longwave radiation (SDLR) received by key areas in Northwest Pacific significantly increased over the past 170 years. The surface downwelling shortwave radiation (SDSR) decreased, and TOA (Top of Atmosphere) incident shortwave radiation (TISR) slightly fluctuated and increased in the 11a (11 years) period. Second, there was the strongest correlation between the Western Pacific warm pool and SDLR, and both increased continuously. Third, since 1945, there has been a tendency of increasing after decreasing in the annual frequency and the share of severe typhoons, and the formation area distribution of typhoons has turned more even. Taking 1998 as a cut-off point, before 1998, there was no obvious correlation between the strong typhoon frequency and SDLR. However, such correction became stronger after 1998. They were affected by the changes of SDLR, SDSR, TISR, vapor, vorticity, vertical velocity, SST and h 100. Forth, the SDLR and TISR are major factors influencing the Western Pacific warm pool, typhoon motion and other varieties. While SDLR mainly increases in the tropical areas, TISR tends to fluctuate and increase slightly. Their changes are consistent with the change general characteristics of strengthening of typhoon.
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Wu, Liguang, Huijun Zong, and Jia Liang. "Observational Analysis of Sudden Tropical Cyclone Track Changes in the Vicinity of the East China Sea." Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 68, no. 12 (December 1, 2011): 3012–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010jas3559.1.
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Abstract An observational analysis of observed sudden typhoon track changes is conducted with a focus on the underlying mechanism and the possible role of slowly varying low-frequency flows. Four typhoons that took a generally northwestward track prior to sharply turning northeastward in the vicinity of the East China Sea are investigated. It is found that the sudden track changes occurred near the center of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO)-scale cyclonic circulation or at the bifurcation point of the steering flows at 700 hPa, and they were all associated with a well-developed quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBW)-scale gyre. Calculation of vorticity advection suggests that the peripheral ridging resulting from the interaction between the typhoons and the flows on the MJO and QBW scales can compress the typhoon circulation, leading to an area of high winds to the east or south of the typhoon center. The enhanced synoptic-scale winds shifted the typhoons northward and placed them in a northeastward orbit under the steering of the flows associated with the Pacific subtropical high. The sudden track change can be likened to the maneuvering of satellite orbit change in that the enhanced synoptic-scale winds act as a booster rocket to shift the typhoons northward to the southwesterly steering flows.
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Kim, Jong-Suk, Anxiang Chen, Junghwan Lee, Il-Ju Moon, and Young-Il Moon. "Statistical Prediction of Typhoon-Induced Rainfall over China Using Historical Rainfall, Tracks, and Intensity of Typhoon in the Western North Pacific." Remote Sensing 12, no. 24 (December 17, 2020): 4133. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs12244133.
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Typhoons or mature tropical cyclones (TCs) can affect inland areas of up to hundreds of kilometers with heavy rains and strong winds, along with landslides causing numerous casualties and property damage due to concentrated precipitation over short time periods. To reduce these damages, it is necessary to accurately predict the rainfall induced by TCs in the western North Pacific Region. However, despite dramatic advances in observation and numerical modeling, the accuracy of prediction of typhoon-induced rainfall and spatial distribution remains limited. The present study offers a statistical approach to predicting the accumulated rainfall associated with typhoons based on a historical storm track and intensity data along with observed rainfall data for 55 typhoons affecting the southeastern coastal areas of China from 1961 to 2017. This approach is shown to provide an average root mean square error of 51.2 mm across 75 meteorological stations in the southeast coastal area of China (ranging from 15.8 to 87.3 mm). Moreover, the error is less than 70 mm for most stations, and significantly lower in the three verification cases, thus demonstrating the feasibility of this approach. Furthermore, the use of fuzzy C-means clustering, ensemble averaging, and corrections to typhoon intensities, can provide more accurate rainfall predictions from the method applied herein, thus allowing for improvements to disaster preparedness and emergency response.
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Mitobe, Yuta, Hitoshi Tanaka, Akihiro Suzuki, Makoto Umeda, Daisuke Komori, and Yoshiya Touge. "BEACH MORPHOLOGICAL CHANGES ON SENDAI COAST BY TYPHOON LIONROCK." Coastal Engineering Proceedings, no. 36 (December 30, 2018): 34. http://dx.doi.org/10.9753/icce.v36.sediment.34.
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In 2016, a few typhoons attacked Tohoku Area of Japan, and one of them, named Typhoon Lionrock, approached and hit Tohoku Area from the Pacific Coast, which is the first observed typhoon to have such a course in the observation history of Japan. In order to know magnitude of the storm surge and high waves induced by the typhoon and their influence on the coastal area, field surveys were conducted on the day of the typhoon arrival and also the next day. The target of the survey was Sendai Coast, which is a part of the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Area. The coast was severely affected by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Tsunami, and its effect on the beach morphology still remains according to shoreline change analysis with aerial photographs by Hoang et al. (2016). In this paper, the shoreline changes by and after the typhoon were analyzed with the aerial photographs taken in every one or two months to understand its effect on the beach processes. And the results were combined with the shoreline data after the 2011 tsunami to see the impact of the typhoon on the beach processes under the recovery from the tsunami event.
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Song, Dan, Lulu Xiang, Linghui Guo, and Bo Li. "Estimating Typhoon-Induced Sea Surface Cooling Based upon Satellite Observations." Water 12, no. 11 (November 1, 2020): 3060. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12113060.
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Typhoons frequently occur in the summer in the northwestern Pacific Ocean, and the responses of the upper ocean to typhoons have drawn extensive attention for decades. In the present work, a modified grid-based maximum response (GMR) method was proposed to estimate the sea surface cooling (SSC) caused by typhoons. The current algorithm (CA) is different from the original GMR method mainly in two aspects: (1) it uses a 5 day average rather than a 2 day average of the sea surface temperature (SST) before the typhoon as the reference temperature; (2) it modifies the fixed radius of 400 km to the level-7 Beaufort scale wind-force (~17.1 m/s) radius to determine the area where the SSC should be calculated. Then the MW-IR OISST data derived from satellite observations were used to compare the SSC estimated by different algorithms in four typhoon cases, Megi, LionRock, Trami and KongRey. The results show that, in all cases, maximum response methods have approached similar results, while the others seemed to have underestimated the SSC in degrees. In the slow-moving LionRock case, grid-based methods were found to have better performance, while in the successive typhoon cases, Trami and KongRey, CA showed an improved result in representing the pre-existing sea surface status before the typhoon KongRey by using the pentad mean SST as the reference temperature. In addition, the use of level-7 wind-force coverage made the results much livelier. In a word, the algorithm proposed here is valid in general. It has advantages in estimating the SSC caused by both slow-moving typhoons and successive typhoons, and should be further applied to related research.
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Hsu, Po-Chun, Chung-Ru Ho, Shin-Jye Liang, and Nan-Jung Kuo. "Impacts of Two Types of El Niño and La Niña Events on Typhoon Activity." Advances in Meteorology 2013 (2013): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/632470.
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The HadISST (Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature) dataset is used to define the years of El Niño, El Niño Modoki, and La Niña events and to find out the impacts of these events on typhoon activity. The results show that the formation positions of typhoon are farther eastward moving in El Niño years than in La Niña years and much further eastward in El Niño Modoki years. The lifetime and the distance of movement are longer, and the intensity of typhoons is stronger in El Niño and in El Niño Modoki years than in La Niña years. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy of typhoon is highly correlated with the Oceanic Niño Index with a correlation coefficient of 0.79. We also find that the typhoons anomalously decrease during El Niño years but increase during El Niño Modoki years. Besides, there are two types of El Niño Modoki, I and II. The intensity of typhoon in El Niño Modoki I years is stronger than in El Niño Modoki II years. Furthermore, the centroid position of the Western Pacific Warm Pool is strongly related to the area of typhoon formation with a correlation coefficient of 0.95.
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Wei, Chih-Chiang. "Development of Stacked Long Short-Term Memory Neural Networks with Numerical Solutions for Wind Velocity Predictions." Advances in Meteorology 2020 (July 23, 2020): 1–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/5462040.
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Taiwan, being located on a path in the west Pacific Ocean where typhoons often strike, is often affected by typhoons. The accompanying strong winds and torrential rains make typhoons particularly damaging in Taiwan. Therefore, we aimed to establish an accurate wind speed prediction model for future typhoons, allowing for better preparation to mitigate a typhoon’s toll on life and property. For more accurate wind speed predictions during a typhoon episode, we used cutting-edge machine learning techniques to construct a wind speed prediction model. To ensure model accuracy, we used, as variable input, simulated values from the Weather Research and Forecasting model of the numerical weather prediction system in addition to adopting deeper neural networks that can deepen neural network structures in the construction of estimation models. Our deeper neural networks comprise multilayer perceptron (MLP), deep recurrent neural networks (DRNNs), and stacked long short-term memory (LSTM). These three model-structure types differ by their memory capacity: MLPs are model networks with no memory capacity, whereas DRNNs and stacked LSTM are model networks with memory capacity. A model structure with memory capacity can analyze time-series data and continue memorizing and learning along the time axis. The study area is northeastern Taiwan. Results showed that MLP, DRNN, and stacked LSTM prediction error rates increased with prediction time (1–6 hours). Comparing the three models revealed that model networks with memory capacity (DRNN and stacked LSTM) were more accurate than those without memory capacity. A further comparison of model networks with memory capacity revealed that stacked LSTM yielded slightly more accurate results than did DRNN. Additionally, we determined that in the construction of the wind speed prediction model, the use of numerically simulated values reduced the error rate approximately by 30%. These results indicate that the inclusion of numerically simulated values in wind speed prediction models enhanced their prediction accuracy.
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Chan, Johnny C. L. "Decadal variations of intense typhoon occurrence in the western North Pacific." Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 464, no. 2089 (October 30, 2007): 249–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2007.0183.
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The causes of one of the two major oscillation periods, 16–32 years, identified through a wavelet analysis, of the time series of the frequency of intense typhoon (categories 4 and 5 in the Saffir–Simpson scale) occurrence for the period 1960–2005 in the western North Pacific (WNP) is studied in this paper. By dividing this period into sub-periods during which the frequency of intense typhoon occurrence was above or below normal on this time scale, various thermodynamic and dynamic factors in each sub-period are examined. During the above-normal periods, the sea surface temperature in the southeastern part of the WNP (5–20° N, 150–180° E) is found to be slightly higher. Within this area, the moist static energy (MSE) is also higher and the vertical gradient of saturated MSE in the lower troposphere is more negative. At the same time, the low-level streamfunction anomalies tend to have a negative maximum and the vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa is also relatively small. Thus, both the thermodynamic and dynamic conditions within this area are more conducive to the development of tropical cyclones (TCs). As these cyclones move northwestward, the favourable dynamic conditions continue to be present so that they can intensify further. The steering flow is such that many of these typhoons will stay over water for an extended period of time through low-latitude recurvature. As a result, they can intensify to become category 4 or 5 typhoons. The conditions during the below-normal periods are generally opposite. A major conclusion from the results of this study is that the frequency of intense typhoon occurrence undergoes a strong multi-decadal (16–32 years) variation due to similar variations in the planetary scale oceanographic and atmospheric conditions that govern the formation, intensification and movement of TCs. These latter variations are largely contributed by the El Niño and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on similar time scales.
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Cui, Ting Ting, Yong Liu, Yin Tang Wang, and Zong Zhi Wang. "Analysis of Relationship between Characteristics of Typhoon Affecting the Taihu Basin and the early Sea-Surface Temperature." Advanced Materials Research 550-553 (July 2012): 2498–504. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.550-553.2498.
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A standard was proposed to define the typhoon affecting the Taihu Basin (TATB) based on the typhoon source, landing location, moving path, typhoon-affected area and precipitation in the Taihu Basin. According to the definition, 230 typhoons were extracted from the 62 years observation data (1949-2010) to analyze the relationships between the characteristics of typhoon which affacted the Taihu Basin and the early relevant regional sea-surface temperature. The results showed the tendencies of the TATB frequency and the earliest affected time were no significant change throughout the long series of statistics; the latest affected time was postponed obviously throughout the long series of statistics; the change of typhoon frequency had two notable periods (21 years and 7 years), and the 21years period was relatively stable throughout the long series of statistics; when the spring of the sea-surface temperature (SST) of the west Pacific Ocean raised and the SST of the east Pacific Ocean near the equator decreased, easy to cause the frequency of the TATB might increase and vice versa TATB frequency decrease. The research results have a certain significance on the Taihu Basin flood control.
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Li, Jiagen, Han Zhang, Shanshan Liu, Xiuting Wang, and Liang Sun. "The Response and Feedback of Ocean Mesoscale Eddies to Four Sequential Typhoons in 2014 Based on Multiple Satellite Observations and Argo Floats." Remote Sensing 13, no. 19 (September 23, 2021): 3805. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs13193805.
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Four sequential tropical cyclones generated and developed in the Northwest Pacific Ocean (NWP) in 2014, which had significant impacts on the oceanic environment and coastal regions. Based on a substantial dataset of multiple-satellite observations, Argo profiles, and reanalysis data, we comprehensively investigated the interactions between the oceanic environment and sequential tropical cyclones. Super typhoon Neoguri (2014) was the first typhoon-passing studied area, with the maximum sustained wind speed of 140 kts, causing strong cold wake along the track. The location of the strongest cold wake was consistent with the pre-existing cyclonic eddy (CE), in which the average sea surface temperature (SST) cooling exceeded −5 °C. Subsequently, three tropical cyclones passed the ocean environment left by Neoguri, namely, the category 2 typhoon Matmo (2014), the tropical cyclone Nakri (2014) and the category 5 typhoon Halong (2014), which caused completely different subsequent responses. In the CE, due to the fact that the ocean stratification was strongly destroyed by Neoguri and difficult to recover, even the weak Nakri could cause a secondary response, but the secondary SST cooling would be overridden by the first response and thus could cause no more serious ocean disasters. If the subsequent typhoon was super typhoon Halong, it could cause an extreme secondary SST cooling, exceeding −8 °C, due to the deep upwelling, exceeding 700 m, surpassing the record of the maximum cooling caused by the first typhoon. In the anti-cyclonic eddy (AE), since the first typhoon Neoguri caused strong seawater mixing, it was difficult for the subsequent weak typhoons to mix the deeper, colder and saltier water into the surface, thus inhibiting secondary SST cooling, and even the super typhoon Halong would only cause as much SST cooling as the first typhoon. Therefore, the ocean responses to sequential typhoons depended on not only TCs intensity, but also TCs track order and ocean mesoscale eddies. In turn, the cold wake caused by the first typhoon, Neoguri, induced different feedback effects on different subsequent typhoons.
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Wang, L. C., H. Behling, T. Q. Lee, H. C. Li, C. A. Huh, L. J. Shiau, and Y. P. Chang. "Late Holocene environmental reconstructions and their implications on flood events, typhoon, and agricultural activities in NE Taiwan." Climate of the Past 10, no. 5 (October 22, 2014): 1857–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1857-2014.
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Abstract. We reconstructed paleoenvironmental changes from a sediment archive of a lake in the floodplain of the Ilan Plain of NE Taiwan on multi-decadal resolution for the last ca. 1900 years. On the basis of pollen and diatom records, we evaluated past floods, typhoons, and agricultural activities in this area which are sensitive to the hydrological conditions in the western Pacific. Considering the high sedimentation rates with low microfossil preservations in our sedimentary record, multiple flood events were. identified during the period AD 100–1400. During the Little Ice Age phase 1 (LIA 1 – AD 1400–1620), the abundant occurrences of wetland plant (Cyperaceae) and diatom frustules imply less flood events under stable climate conditions in this period. Between AD 500 and 700 and the Little Ice Age phase 2 (LIA 2 – AD 1630–1850), the frequent typhoons were inferred by coarse sediments and planktonic diatoms, which represented more dynamical climate conditions than in the LIA 1. By comparing our results with the reconstructed changes in tropical hydrological conditions, we suggested that the local hydrology in NE Taiwan is strongly influenced by typhoon-triggered heavy rainfalls, which could be influenced by the variation of global temperature, the expansion of the Pacific warm pool, and the intensification of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events.
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Hsiao, Shih-Chun, Tien-Hung Hou, Tai-Wen Hsu, and Chia-Cheng Tsai. "Using multiple-resolution data in an adaptive simulation for typhoon-induced waves in northwest Pacific Ocean." Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part M: Journal of Engineering for the Maritime Environment 234, no. 1 (February 13, 2019): 284–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1475090219826756.
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Due to the very large expanse of warm water in the northwest Pacific Ocean, typhoons are stronger and occur more frequently than hurricanes. In addition, there is usually a lack of unified high-resolution data of wind fields and bathymetry since multiple countries can be influenced by a typhoon. Therefore, we use multiple-resolution data in an adaptive simulation for typhoon-induced waves. Higher-resolution data are obtained from the government of Taiwan and are used for the area around Taiwan. In the other area, lower resolution data are adopted from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States. An adaption criterion is implemented such that the highest resolution numerical grids move with the typhoon in a large-scale simulation. The numerical results obtained by the large-scale simulation with multiple-resolution wind fields are improved over those obtained by a smaller scale simulation with the higher resolution wind field at buoys near Taiwan. In addition, the large-scale simulation also provides results for buoys where the higher resolution wind field is not available. In addition, a speedup of fourfolds by the dynamic adaption model over the partially uniform grid one is demonstrated.
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Satake, Yuya, Masaru Inatsu, Masato Mori, and Akira Hasegawa. "Tropical Cyclone Tracking Using a Neighbor Enclosed Area Tracking Algorithm." Monthly Weather Review 141, no. 10 (September 25, 2013): 3539–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-12-00092.1.
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Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) tracking is essential for calculating TC statistics from gridded datasets. A new method for TC tracking is presented here using neighbor enclosed area tracking (NEAT), which is based on the temporal overlap of enclosed areas above a vorticity threshold and differs from the widely used neighbor point tracking (NPT) method. The parameters of cyclone intensity, vertical-shear, and warm-core criteria were intensively tuned for NEAT and NPT. When these criteria were optimized for the typhoon tracks observed in the western North Pacific based on the Japanese 25-yr Reanalysis Project (JRA-25)/Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Climate Data Assimilation System (JCDAS) dataset, the NEAT and NPT algorithms captured approximately 85% of typhoons with little qualitative distortion in the spatial distribution and temporal variability of the TC track density. The grid system dependency of the algorithms was tested by applying NEAT and NPT to a high-resolution general circulation model output. The method presented here can also provide realistic statistics on the TC size, the extratropical transition timing, and the meridional heat transport.
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Wang, L. C., H. Behling, T. Q. Lee, H. C. Li, C. A. Huh, L. J. Shiau, and Y. P. Chang. "Late Holocene environmental reconstructions and the implications on flood events, typhoon patterns, and agriculture activities in NE Taiwan." Climate of the Past Discussions 10, no. 3 (May 5, 2014): 1977–2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cpd-10-1977-2014.
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Abstract. In this study, we reconstructed the paleoenvironmental changes from a sediment archive of the floodplain lake in Ilan Plain of NE Taiwan on multi-decadal resolution for the last ca. 1900 years. On the basis of pollen and diatom records, we evaluated the record of past vegetation, floods, typhoons and agriculture activities of this area, which is sensitive to the hydrological conditions of the West Pacific. High sedimentation rates with low microfossil preservations reflected multiple flood events and humid climatic conditions during 100–1400 AD. A shortly interrupted dry phase can be found during 940–1010 AD. The driest phase corresponds to the Little Ice Age phase 1 (LIA1, 1400–1620 AD) with less disturbance by flood events, which enhanced the occurrence of wetlands (Cyperaceae) and diatom depositions. Humid phases with frequent typhoons are inferred by high percentages of Lagerstroemia and high ratios of planktonic/benthic diatoms, respectively, during 500–700 AD and Little Ice Age phase 2 (LIA2, 1630–1850 AD). The occurrences of cultivated Poaceae (Oryza) during 1250–1300 AD and the last ~400 years, reflect agriculture activities, which seems to implicate strongly with the environmental stability. Finally, we found flood events which dominated during the El Niño-like stage, but dry events as well as frequent typhoon events happened during the La Niña-like stage. After comparing our results with the reconstructed proxy for tropical hydrological conditions, we suggested that the local hydrology in coastal East Asia were strongly affected by the typhoon-triggered heavy rainfalls which were influenced by the variation of global temperature, expansion of the Pacific warm pool and intensification of ENSO events.
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Wei, Chih-Chiang, and Tzu-Hao Chou. "Typhoon Quantitative Rainfall Prediction from Big Data Analytics by Using the Apache Hadoop Spark Parallel Computing Framework." Atmosphere 11, no. 8 (August 17, 2020): 870. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos11080870.
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Situated in the main tracks of typhoons in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean, Taiwan frequently encounters disasters from heavy rainfall during typhoons. Accurate and timely typhoon rainfall prediction is an imperative topic that must be addressed. The purpose of this study was to develop a Hadoop Spark distribute framework based on big-data technology, to accelerate the computation of typhoon rainfall prediction models. This study used deep neural networks (DNNs) and multiple linear regressions (MLRs) in machine learning, to establish rainfall prediction models and evaluate rainfall prediction accuracy. The Hadoop Spark distributed cluster-computing framework was the big-data technology used. The Hadoop Spark framework consisted of the Hadoop Distributed File System, MapReduce framework, and Spark, which was used as a new-generation technology to improve the efficiency of the distributed computing. The research area was Northern Taiwan, which contains four surface observation stations as the experimental sites. This study collected 271 typhoon events (from 1961 to 2017). The following results were obtained: (1) in machine-learning computation, prediction errors increased with prediction duration in the DNN and MLR models; and (2) the system of Hadoop Spark framework was faster than the standalone systems (single I7 central processing unit (CPU) and single E3 CPU). When complex computation is required in a model (e.g., DNN model parameter calibration), the big-data-based Hadoop Spark framework can be used to establish highly efficient computation environments. In summary, this study successfully used the big-data Hadoop Spark framework with machine learning, to develop rainfall prediction models with effectively improved computing efficiency. Therefore, the proposed system can solve problems regarding real-time typhoon rainfall prediction with high timeliness and accuracy.
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Jiang, PhD, RN, Li-Ping, Lan Yao, PhD, Eleanor F. Bond, PhD, RN, FAAN, Yu-Ling Wang, MSN, RN, and Li-quan Huang, MSN, RN. "Risk perceptions and preparedness of typhoon disaster on coastal inhabitants in China." American Journal of Disaster Medicine 6, no. 2 (March 1, 2011): 119–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.5055/ajdm.2011.0051.
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China is highly vulnerable to natural disasters. Southeastern China situated on the Pacific Ocean experiences severe and devastating typhoons and hydrogeological disasters every year. Although respondents are highly aware of the typhoon outbreaks, they do not have necessary precautionary actions.This retrospective study evaluates the inhabitants’ sociodemographic characteristics with risk perceptions and preparedness. Subjects (434 adults) were recruited from two rural areas in coastal south-eastern China, both with high typhoon exposure. One area (landfall area [LA]) was more severely affected than the other (surrounding area [SA]) by the 2006 typhoon “Saomai.” Subjects were interviewed using a structured questionnaire with items addressing sociodemographic characteristics and exposure to public education related to emergency preparedness, risk perception, and coping strategies. Overall, most residents (92 percent) were aware that they lived in a high-risk area. About 54.6 percent respondents chose media as the first approach to obtain preparedness education, and 32.4 percent of respondents thought that personal experience is an important tool to defend themselves from typhoon. In LA, residents perceived themselves to be at higher risk than those who lived in the SA. More than 66.5 percent of respondents were terrified by typhoon, and 62.2 percent of respondents were afraid of its recurrence. Respondents emphasized that their life style (61.4 percent), property losses (54.5 percent), and threat to life (52.4 percent) were influenced by typhoon attack. Coping behavior most likely to be adopted was “anticipatory food, water storage and residents in LA is significantly higher than SA (p 0.01). Risk perception with Spider Map analysis depicted that the item of disaster information is similar in both familiarity or dread associated with the risk axes (p 0.05). However, in rescue and recovery of typhoon items, the score of familiarity with risk and dread with the risk axes is below 2.5. Regression analyses indicated that poor coping behavior was positively associated with age, risk perception, residential location, and knowledge of preparedness. The results indicated that risk perceptions and precaution activity were strongly related with inhabitants’ sociodemographic characteristics and vulnerability of disaster-affected zone.
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Freeshah, Mohamed, Xiaohong Zhang, Erman Şentürk, Muhammad Arqim Adil, B. G. Mousa, Aqil Tariq, Xiaodong Ren, and Mervat Refaat. "Analysis of Atmospheric and Ionospheric Variations Due to Impacts of Super Typhoon Mangkhut (1822) in the Northwest Pacific Ocean." Remote Sensing 13, no. 4 (February 11, 2021): 661. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs13040661.
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The Northwest Pacific Ocean (NWP) is one of the most vulnerable regions that has been hit by typhoons. In September 2018, Mangkhut was the 22nd Tropical Cyclone (TC) over the NWP regions (so, the event was numbered as 1822). In this paper, we investigated the highest amplitude ionospheric variations, along with the atmospheric anomalies, such as the sea-level pressure, Mangkhut’s cloud system, and the meridional and zonal wind during the typhoon. Regional Ionosphere Maps (RIMs) were created through the Hong Kong Continuously Operating Reference Stations (HKCORS) and International GNSS Service (IGS) data around the area of Mangkhut typhoon. RIMs were utilized to analyze the ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) response over the maximum wind speed points (maximum spots) under the meticulous observations of the solar-terrestrial environment and geomagnetic storm indices. Ionospheric vertical TEC (VTEC) time sequences over the maximum spots are detected by three methods: interquartile range method (IQR), enhanced average difference (EAD), and range of ten days (RTD) during the super typhoon Mangkhut. The research findings indicated significant ionospheric variations over the maximum spots during this powerful tropical cyclone within a few hours before the extreme wind speed. Moreover, the ionosphere showed a positive response where the maximum VTEC amplitude variations coincided with the cyclone rainbands or typhoon edges rather than the center of the storm. The sea-level pressure tends to decrease around the typhoon periphery, and the highest ionospheric VTEC amplitude was observed when the low-pressure cell covers the largest area. The possible mechanism of the ionospheric response is based on strong convective cells that create the gravity waves over tropical cyclones. Moreover, the critical change state in the meridional wind happened on the same day of maximum ionospheric variations on the 256th day of the year (DOY 256). This comprehensive analysis suggests that the meridional winds and their resulting waves may contribute in one way or another to upper atmosphere-ionosphere coupling.
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Hsiao, Ling-Feng, Der-Song Chen, Ying-Hwa Kuo, Yong-Run Guo, Tien-Chiang Yeh, Jing-Shan Hong, Chin-Tzu Fong, and Cheng-Shang Lee. "Application of WRF 3DVAR to Operational Typhoon Prediction in Taiwan: Impact of Outer Loop and Partial Cycling Approaches." Weather and Forecasting 27, no. 5 (May 30, 2012): 1249–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-11-00131.1.
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Abstract In this paper, the impact of outer loop and partial cycling with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model’s (WRF) three-dimensional variational data assimilation system (3DVAR) is evaluated by analyzing 78 forecasts for three typhoons during 2008 for which Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau (CWB) issued typhoon warnings, including Sinlaku, Hagupit, and Jangmi. The use of both the outer loop and the partial cycling approaches in WRF 3DVAR are found to reduce typhoon track forecast errors by more than 30%, averaged over a 72-h period. The improvement due to the outer loop approach, which can be more than 42%, was particularly significant in the early phase of the forecast. The use of the outer loop allows more observations to be assimilated and produces more accurate analyses. The assimilation of additional nonlinear GPS radio occultation (RO) observations over the western North Pacific Ocean, where traditional observational data are lacking, is particularly useful. With the lack of observations over the tropical and subtropical oceans, the error in the first-guess field (which is based on a 6-h forecast of the previous cycle) will continue to grow in a full-cycling limited-area data assimilation system. Even though the use of partial cycling only shows a slight improvement in typhoon track forecast after 12 h, it has the benefit of suppressing the growth of the systematic model error. A typhoon prediction model using the Advanced Research core of the WRF (WRF-ARW) and the WRF 3DVAR system with outer loop and partial cycling substantially improves the typhoon track forecast. This system, known as Typhoon WRF (TWRF), has been in use by CWB since 2010 for operational typhoon predictions.
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Desquitado, Aaliyah Marie S., Marianne Roselle R. Perez, Rein Simoun R. Puchero, and Ernest P. Macalalad. "A climatological study of typhoons over the Philippine Area of Responsibility from 1989–2018." E3S Web of Conferences 200 (2020): 02001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202020002001.
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The Philippines is in the Western North Pacific region, where it is a recipient of several weather disturbances such as tropical cyclones. This study aims to determine trends and periodicities of typhoons (TY) within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), and the rainfall they brought in a 30-year period (1989–2018) for future forecast and disaster risk mitigation efforts of these TY. These TYs are raised when TC’s sustained winds are 118 kph and above. Frequency analysis of TY is done to determine the trends and periodicities in terms of the yearly total occurrence, number of TY that made landfall, distribution of TY classification, and their seasonal variation. The results showed that with PAR the yearly total occurrence of TY seems to have an approximately 12-year periodicity where maximum occurrence was observed around the years 1994, 2004, and 2014 while minimum occurrence was observed in years 1989, 1999, and 2010. Also, track data shows that only 32 % of these TY made a landfall within PAR. Out of the three regions in the Philippines, Luzon Island is the region where most of the severe typhoons made landfall at 80 %. Moreover, TYs occurred mostly during September to November where the transition period between the northeast monsoon and south west monsoon usually occurs. Also, rainfall during which these TYs have occurred were obtained from five synoptic stations across the Philippines. It showed from 1989 to 1998, the total yearly rainfall brought by these TYs ranged from 804 mm to 1 912 mm. But from 1999 to 2018, these TYs brought more rain where their total yearly rainfall ranged from 2 844 mm to 4 941 mm.
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Monjardin, C. E. F., K. M. Transfiguracion, J. P. J. Mangunay, K. M. Paguia, F. A. A. Uy, and F. J. Tan. "Determination of River Water Level Triggering Flood in Manghinao River in Bauan, Batangas, Philippines." Journal of Mechanical Engineering 18, no. 3 (September 15, 2021): 181–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.24191/jmeche.v18i3.15425.
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Flooding is one of the problems experienced by many countries no matter what their economic status is. Even rich and developed countries experience it too. Flooding is mainly caused by natural events such as typhoons and monsoon rains even anthropogenic causes that sometimes could not be stopped even if there are flood control structures in place. The Philippines is located in the Pacific Ring of Fire and is visited by an average of 20 typhoons each year. People are used to experiencing flooding and it is about time that we somehow do something about it. There have been many technologies available right now that could aid us to improve our capability to adapt to such phenomena. Heavy precipitation is usually experienced during the monsoon season that leads to severe flooding in a specific area. The application of HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Centre’s River Analysis System) Modelling Software was used in the study in Manghinao River for comprehensive hazard mapping and risk assessment in the downstream area of the Bauan River for 100-year return period flood. 2D flood hazard simulation was done and the river water level that would trigger flooding downstream was identified. At 0.5 m of flood height, people are considered immobilized to move from one place to another so the best time to evacuate people is before the flood reaches that level. Results showed that LGU has 4 hours to evacuate people starting when the river water at the gaging station reads 0.5 m, this gives them enough time to give warning and ask people to move to evacuations sites to prevent them being stranded in their houses. This study can support future planning and for the development of flood control plans and flood mitigation measures to minimize the losses due to flood disasters in Batangas Province, Philippines particularly in the Bauan area.
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Zhao, Xin, and Pao-Shin Chu. "Bayesian Changepoint Analysis for Extreme Events (Typhoons, Heavy Rainfall, and Heat Waves): An RJMCMC Approach." Journal of Climate 23, no. 5 (March 1, 2010): 1034–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli2597.1.
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Abstract A hierarchical Bayesian framework is developed to identify multiple abrupt regime shifts in an extreme event series. Specifically, extreme events are modeled as a Poisson process with a gamma-distributed rate. Multiple candidate hypotheses are considered, under each of which there presumably exist a certain number of abrupt shifts of the rate. A Bayesian network involving three layers—data, parameter, and hypothesis—is formulated. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm is developed to calculate posterior probability for each hypothesis as well its associated within-hypothesis parameters. Based on the proposed RJMCMC algorithm, a simulated example is designed to illustrate the effectiveness of the method. Subsequently, the algorithm is applied to three real, rare event time series: the annual typhoon counts over the western North Pacific (WNP), the annual extreme heavy rainfall event counts at the Honolulu airport, and the annual heat wave frequency in the Chicago area. Results indicate that the typhoon activity over the WNP is very likely to have undergone a decadal variation, with two change points occurring around 1972 and 1989 characterized by the active 1960–71 epoch, the inactive 1972–88 epoch, and the moderately active 1989–2006 epoch. For the extreme rainfall case, only one shift around 1970 is found and heavy rainfall frequency has remained stationary since then. There is no evidence that the rate of the annual heat wave counts in the Chicago area has had any abrupt change during the past 50 years.
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Hung, Chih-wen, Ming-Fu Shih, and Te-Yuan Lin. "The Climatological Analysis of Typhoon Tracks, Steering Flow, and the Pacific Subtropical High in the Vicinity of Taiwan and the Western North Pacific." Atmosphere 11, no. 5 (May 23, 2020): 543. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos11050543.
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Taiwan frequently suffers from typhoon hits in the boreal summer and fall. The location of Taiwan makes it vulnerable to the pathways of typhoons mainly determined by the position of the Pacific subtropical high. In order to clarify the linkage between typhoon invasion and associated large-scale environments from a climatological perspective, this study counts the historical typhoon invasion days for each month in the typhoon season to establish analyzed cases and then categorizes them with statistical thresholds. Besides, the categorized cases with less typhoon invasion are further sorted to distinguish different movements of tropical cyclones. Therefore, corresponding composites are applied for each category. The results reveal that when the subtropical high retreats eastward, the accompanying steering flow guides typhoons to make an early recurvature toward Japan and South Korea. While the subtropical high further extends its property to the west covering Taiwan, the steering flow on the south transfers typhoons moving westward to the South China Sea. However, when the subtropical high lies in areas between the above two scenarios, the steering flow along the periphery of the subtropical high continuously sends typhoons toward Taiwan and the vicinity, which greatly increases the threat to the island.
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Shalyi, E. E., L. V. Kim, S. N. Leonovich, and A. V. Stepanova. "PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF DEPTH AND CARBONATION FRONT DEVELOPMENT IN CONCRETE OF MARINE STRUCTURES." Science & Technique 17, no. 2 (April 13, 2018): 106–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.21122/2227-1031-2018-17-2-106-113.
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On the coast of the Russian Far East the climate is monsoon, which is most pro-nounced in the south and northeast waning. Seasonal change of oceanic and continental influence is reflected in the nature of the climate: summer is moderatelywarm and rainy, winter is cold and snowy. On Sakhalin winters are less severe than on the mainland. In Kamchatka, where the winters are milder, the influence of the continental monsoon less. In the southern part of Primorye snow is so small that there is in the rivers spring flood. In the north of the Amur region, Sakhalin, Kamchatka rainfall and snowpack increases. In the summer is dominated by southeast wind, which spread to the continent moist Pacific air. During the year, between the Pacific Ocean and the south of the Far East there is an intensive exchange of air masses. Seasonal change of air currents is determined by the thermal contrast between the continent and the ocean. During the year passes over the area to an average of 100 cyclones (3–6 per month during the cold period, and up to 3 – warm), which are ac-companied by increased wind, cloudy weather with precipitation, and in late summer and early au-tumn, typhoons observed outputs. Typhoons are accompanied by stormy winds reaching speeds of over 40 m / sec. and heavy rains. A wide variety of observed in the distribution of precipitation. The Chukchi-Anadyr area for the warm period falls to 200–250 mm in the north of the Sea of Okhotsk – 400–500 mm, in intermountain basins up to 250–300 mm. To the south the amount of precipitation increases to 500 to 600 mm in the Amur region and 900–1000 mm on the western slopes of Sikhote Alin. In the course of the annual maximum rainfall in the second half of the summer, but there are rainy June and September. No wonder that in such conditions, corrosion, material of hydraulic structures is most intense. Concrete and cement stone reinforced concrete structures exposed to corrosive attack, particularly the aggressive action of CO2 common acid gas, which is to neutralize the surface layer of concrete and the formation of the compounds that affect its properties. The article discusses the impact of the environment model south of the Far East, mainly due to the impact on hydraulic reinforced concrete structures of carbon dioxide in the environment, with subsequent corrosion of concrete and reinforcement.
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Chu, Kekuan, and Zhe-Min Tan. "Annular Typhoons in the Western North Pacific." Weather and Forecasting 29, no. 2 (April 1, 2014): 241–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-13-00060.1.
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Abstract Annular hurricanes, characterized by annular structure, are a subset of mature-stage intense tropical cyclones, and they tend to be stronger and persist longer than average tropical cyclones. The characteristics of annular hurricanes in the North Atlantic and eastern-central North Pacific Oceans are well documented by Knaff et al. However, little is known about the annular typhoons in the western North Pacific (WNP). This study investigates the general features of annular typhoons in the WNP based on a 20-yr analysis (1990–2009) of global storm-centered infrared brightness temperature and passive microwave satellite datasets. Similar to annular hurricanes, annular typhoons also only form under a specific combination of environmental conditions, resulting in a quite low occurrence rate (~4%), and only 12 annular typhoons occur during this period. The concentric eyewall replacement is one effective pathway to annular typhoon formation. Three annular typhoons experienced the concentric eyewall replacement within 24 h prior to their annular phases during this period. There are two seedbeds, located east of Taiwan and in the central WNP, for annular typhoon formation within a narrow zonal belt (20°–30°N). The former is conducive to the landfall of annular typhoons, in particular six of the nine annular typhoons that formed in this region eventually made landfall. Because the average time interval between landfall of the annular typhoons and the end of their annular phase is relatively short, about 30 h, they can maintain near-peak intensities and hit the landfalling areas with record intensities. They present a unique threat to eastern Asia but have received little attention from the scientific community so far.
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Li, Jiawen, Zhenni Li, Yichen Jiang, and Yougang Tang. "Typhoon Resistance Analysis of Offshore Wind Turbines: A Review." Atmosphere 13, no. 3 (March 10, 2022): 451. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos13030451.
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A typhoon is a tropical cyclone in the western Pacific Ocean and the China seas. Typhoons are some of the most destructive natural disasters on Earth. In China, typhoons have had major impacts on the stability and structural integrity of offshore wind turbines in the complex and harsh marine environment. In this research, first, the main causes of wind turbine damage were analyzed based on the characteristics of a typhoon and a wind turbine structure for typical typhoon-induced accidents. Second, the research progress of the anti-typhoon design of offshore wind turbines and the anti-typhoon strategy of wind farms operation and maintenance was summarized. Finally, the problems to be further solved in these research fields were presented to provide references for the development of offshore wind turbines, in particular, floating wind turbines in typhoon-prone areas.
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Kuo, Yi-Chun, Ming-An Lee, and Mong-Ming Lu. "Association of Taiwan’s Rainfall Patterns with Large-Scale Oceanic and Atmospheric Phenomena." Advances in Meteorology 2016 (2016): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/3102895.
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A 50-year (1960–2009) monthly rainfall gridded dataset produced by the Taiwan Climate Change Projection and Information Platform Project was presented in this study. The gridded data (5 × 5 km) displayed influence of topography on spatial variability of rainfall, and the results of the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) analysis revealed the patterns associated with the large-scale sea surface temperature variability over Pacific. The first mode (65%) revealed the annual peaks of large rainfall in the southwestern mountainous area, which is associated with southwest monsoons and typhoons during summertime. The second temporal EOF mode (16%) revealed the rainfall variance associated with the monsoon and its interaction with the slopes of the mountain range. This pattern is the major contributor to spatial variance of rainfall in Taiwan, as indicated by the first mode (40%) of spatial variance EOF analysis. The second temporal EOF mode correlated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In particular, during the autumn of the La Niña years following the strong El Niño years, the time-varying amplitude was substantially greater than that of normal years. The third temporal EOF mode (7%) revealed a north-south out-of-phase rainfall pattern, the slowly evolving variations of which were in phase with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Because of Taiwan’s geographic location and the effect of local terrestrial structures, climate variability related to ENSO differed markedly from other regions in East Asia.
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Comiso, Josefino, Gay Jane Perez, and Larry Stock. "Enhanced Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperature and Its Relation to Typhoon Haiyan." Journal of Environmental Science and Management 18, no. 1 (June 30, 2015): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.47125/jesam/2015_1/01.
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Typhoon Haiyan, which devastated the Visayan Islands in the Philippines on November 8, 2013 was recorded as the strongest typhoon ever-observed using satellite data. Typhoons in the region usually originate from the mid-Pacific region that includes the Warm Pool, which is regarded as the warmest ocean surface region globally. Two study areas were considered: one in the Warm Pool Region and the other in the West Pacific Region near the Philippines. Among the most important factors that affect the strength of a typhoon are sea surface temperature (SST) and water vapor. It is remarkable that in November 2013 the average SST in the Warm Pool Region was the highest observed during the 1981 to 2014 period while that of the West Pacific Region was among the highest as well. Moreover, the increasing trend in SST was around 0.20ºC per decade in the warm pool region and even higher at 0.23ºC per decade in the West Pacific region. The yearly minimum SST has also been increasing suggesting that the temperature of the ocean mixed layer is also increasing. Further analysis indicated that water vapor, clouds, winds and sea level pressure for the same period did not reveal strong signals associated with the 2013 event. The SST is shown to be well-correlated with wind strength of historically strong typhoons in the country and the observed trends in SST suggest that extremely destructive typhoons like Haiyan are likely to occur in the future.
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Fang, Yong, Yanhua Sun, Lu Zhang, Gengxin Chen, Mei Du, and Yunxia Guo. "Stochastic Simulation of Typhoon in Northwest Pacific Basin Based on Machine Learning." Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience 2022 (February 17, 2022): 1–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/6760944.
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Typhoons have caused serious economic losses and casualties in coastal areas all over the world. The big size of the tropical cyclone sample by stochastic simulation can effectively evaluate the typhoon hazard risk, and the typhoon full-track model is the most popular model for typhoon stochastic simulation. Based on the advantages of machine learning in dealing with nonlinear problems, this study uses a backpropagation neural network (BPNN) to replace the regression model in the empirical track model, reestablishes the neural network model for track and intensity prediction in typhoon stochastic simulation, and constructs full‐track typhoon events of 1000 years for Northwest Pacific basin. The validation results indicate that the BPNN can improve the accuracy of typhoon track and intensity prediction.
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Li, Xiaofeng, Jun A. Zhang, Xiaofeng Yang, William G. Pichel, Mark DeMaria, David Long, and Ziwei Li. "Tropical Cyclone Morphology from Spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 94, no. 2 (February 1, 2013): 215–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-11-00211.1.
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In 2008, the Canadian Space Agency sponsored the Radarsat Hurricane Applications Project (RHAP), for researching new developments in the application of Radarsat-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data and innovative mapping approaches to better understand the dynamics of tropical cyclone genesis, morphology, and movement. Although tropical cyclones can be detected by many remote sensors, SAR can yield high-resolution (subkilometer) and low-level storm information that cannot be seen below the clouds by other sensors. In addition to the wind field and tropical cyclone eye information, structures associated with atmospheric processes can also be detected by SAR. We have acquired 161 Radarsat-1 SAR images through RHAP between 2001 and 2007. Among these, 73 images show clear tropical cyclone eye structure. In addition, we also acquired 10 images from the European Space Agency's Envisat SAR between 2004 and 2010. Both Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific typhoons are included. In this study, we analyze these 83 (73 Radarsat-1 and 10 Envisat) images with tropical cyclone eye information along with ancillary tropical cyclone intensity information from the archive to generate tropical cyclone morphology statistics. Histograms of wave-number asymmetry and intensity are presented. The statistics show that when the storm has higher intensity, the tropical cyclone eye tends to become more symmetric, and the area of the tropical cyclone eye, defined by the minimum wind area, tends to be smaller. Examples of finescale structures within the tropical cyclone (i.e., eye/eyewall mesovortices, arc clouds, double eyewalls, and abnormally high wind or rain within eyes) are presented and discussed.
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Lin, Jianmin, Sunke Fang, Xiaofeng Li, Renhao Wu, and Hong Zheng. "Seismological Observations of Ocean Swells Induced by Typhoon Megi Using Dispersive Microseisms Recorded in Coastal Areas." Remote Sensing 10, no. 9 (September 8, 2018): 1437. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs10091437.
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Typhoons in the western Pacific Ocean can generate extensive ocean swells, some of which propagate toward Taiwan, Luzon, and the Ryukyu Islands, impacting the coasts and generating double-frequency (DF) microseisms. The dispersion characteristics of DF microseisms relevant to the propagation of ocean swells were analyzed using the fractional Fourier transform (FrFT) to obtain the propagation distance and track the origins of typhoon-induced swells through seismic observations. For the super typhoon Megi in 2010, the origin of the induced ocean swells was tracked and localized accurately using seismic records from stations in eastern Taiwan. The localized source regions and calculated wave periods of the ocean swells are in good agreement with values predicted by ERA5 reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). However, localized deviations may depend on the effective detection of dispersive DF microseisms, which is tied to both coastline geometry and the geographic locations of seismic stations. This work demonstrates the effectiveness of seismological methods in observing typhoon-induced swells. The dispersion characteristics of DF microseisms recorded by coastal stations could be used as a proxy measure to track and monitor typhoon-induced swells across oceans.
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Zhang, Zhongwu. "Impact of Typhoons of Different Intensities on Short-Term Precipitation in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River in Summer." Advances in Meteorology 2022 (May 31, 2022): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/6227798.
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According to China’s reanalyzed meteorological dataset (CN05.1), a 6-h track intensity typhoon meteorological dataset in the Western Pacific, three types of short-term precipitation are described to study the impact of typhoons on summer rainfall of different intensities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River: short-term extreme precipitation (95% quantile), short-term heavy precipitation (75% quantile), and normal precipitation (below the lower limit of the 75% quantile threshold). The results show that the amount of short-term extreme precipitation is 1.8 and 3.7 times that of normal precipitation and short-term heavy precipitation, respectively. Considerable interannual and interdecadal fluctuations in the proportion of short-term heavy precipitation and extreme precipitation during summer are affected by typhoons, with a wide range of changes occurring between 1980 and 2000. The areas with high amounts of short-term heavy precipitation and extreme precipitation are distributed mostly in the middle and southern parts of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, whereas areas with a high amount of normal precipitation are distributed mostly in the southeastern parts of the river. The spatial distribution of the three intensities of rainfall affected by typhoons is consistent, with a gradual decrease from southeast to northwest; in addition, the spatial distribution of the proportion of total summer rainfall has similar characteristics. The three intensities of precipitation are affected by the spatial distribution of the typhoon path frequency, and the distribution of the high-value areas is essentially the same as that of precipitation. This indicates that most of the typhoons that affect summer precipitation pass through the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.
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Woo, Hye-Jin, and Kyung-Ae Park. "Estimation of Extreme Significant Wave Height in the Northwest Pacific Using Satellite Altimeter Data Focused on Typhoons (1992–2016)." Remote Sensing 13, no. 6 (March 11, 2021): 1063. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs13061063.
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The estimation of extreme ocean wave heights is important for understanding the ocean’s response to long-term changes in the ocean environment and for the effective coastal management of potential disasters in coastal areas. In order to estimate extreme wave height values in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, a 100-year return period were calculated by applying a Peak over Threshold (PoT) method to satellite altimeter SWH data from 1992 to 2016. Satellite altimeter SWH data were validated using in situ measurements from the Ieodo Ocean Research Station (IORS) south of Korea and the Donghae buoy of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) off the eastern coast of Korea. The spatial distribution and seasonal variations of the estimated 100-year return period SWHs in the Northwest Pacific Ocean were presented. To quantitatively analyze the suitability of the PoT method in the Northwest Pacific, where typhoons frequently occur, the estimated 100-year return period SWHs were compared by classifying the regions as containing negligible or significant typhoon effects. Seasonal variations of extreme SWHs within the upper limit of 0.1% and the PoT-based extreme SWHs indicated the effect of typhoons on the high SWHs in the East China Sea and the southern part of the Northwest Pacific during summer and fall. In addition, this study discusses the limitations of satellite altimeter SWH data in the estimation of 100-year extreme SWHs.
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Wang, Yizhi, Ting Yang, Yuechu Wu, Dan Liu, Xinfeng Huang, Jun Wang, Weixing Zhong, Haitao Shou, Yong Zhou, and Yongshun Chen. "A new broad-band ocean bottom seismograph and characteristics of the seismic ambient noise on the South China Sea seafloor based on its recordings." Geophysical Journal International 230, no. 1 (March 3, 2022): 684–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggac092.
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SUMMARY The ocean is the primary source of seismic ambient noise. Therefore, seismic recordings at seafloor stations should reveal noise characteristics more directly than land stations. However, due to a lack of broad-band seismic instrumentation, seafloor noise studies using seafloor stations have been inadequate compared to land-based instrumentation. In this study, we use seismic data collected at the South China Sea (SCS) seafloor by newly developed ocean bottom seismographs (OBSs) to analyze the ambient noise features in this marginal sea. The broad-band OBS, dubbed ‘Pankun’, has unique shielding to isolate its sensor from the influences of bottom currents. A side-by-side land test between the OBS sensor unit and a standalone seismometer showed that the self-noise caused by the gimbal and the pressure case is insignificant. The recordings on the SCS seafloor have distinct noise spectra. The double frequency microseisms (DFMs) have a single instead of double peak like that seen for Pacific stations. The peak appears in a lower period range (1–5 s) than in the global noise model, indicating that the primary source region for the DFM is the SCS itself. The high-frequency content of the DFM is attenuated more as it propagates from its source region (seafloor) to land stations. The single frequency microseism (SFM) peak on the spectrum is weak, reflecting that SFMs, generated in shallow water along the coast, have difficulties propagating back into the deep ocean due to the substantial increase in seafloor depth. A long-period Earth's hum signal is also identifiable on the vertical component at periods greater than 50 s, probably due to the anti-current design of the OBS. Although the seasonal sea state mainly affects the noise level, extreme events such as typhoons can produce short-term abnormally high DFMs in the basin. However, the DFM highs caused by such events exhibit complex patterns, depending on the wind speed, duration, and area covered by the events.
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Murata, Hiroki, Toyonobu Fujii, and Chinatsu Yonezawa. "Evaluating the effect of the incidence angle of ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 on detecting aquaculture facilities for sustainable use of coastal space and resources." PeerJ 11 (January 6, 2023): e14649. http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.14649.
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Background Driven by the growing world population, aquaculture plays a key role in meeting the increasing demand for food. However, aquaculture facilities in Japan are widely installed in coastal waters where natural disasters, such as typhoons and tsunamis, might wash these facilities away, thereby interfering with maritime navigation safety. Therefore, it is imperative to efficiently monitor the state of aquaculture facilities daily, particularly after a disaster in real time. To this end, several new space-borne L-band synthetic aperture radars (SARs) continue to be launched now and in the future, whose utilizations are expected to increase nationally and internationally. An example is the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, currently operating a SAR that can be operated day and night, and even under cloudy conditions, called ALOS-2 PALSAR-2. Methods Based on the above facts, this study evaluated the effect of the incidence angle of ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 HH single-polarization data, using 3 m spatial resolution, on aquaculture raft detection. As the study site, we selected Ago Bay, located on the Pacific coast of Mie Prefecture in central Japan since the Nankai Trough Megathrust Earthquake and tsunamis have been predicted to occur in the future around this area. Then, we analyzed the sigma zero (backscattering coefficient) of aquaculture rafts and their surrounding sea surfaces, including the relationships between satellite orbits and aquaculture raft directions. Results Investigations revealed that the optimum incidence angle for detecting aquaculture rafts in this study was 33.8°–45.1°. Differences in the sigma zero values existed between the ascending and descending orbits. However, the incidence angles differed on the orbits. Then, differences in the median sigma zero values across a range of incidence angles were evaluated under the descending orbit. In addition, when the directions of the aquaculture rafts were closely perpendicular to the satellite orbit, aquaculture rafts tended to show the highest values of sigma zero due to Bragg resonance scattering. Hence, this knowledge may allow for the rapid detection of aquaculture rafts during an emergency without going on-site.
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Ramos, Gloria N., and Annie Melinda Paz-Alberto. "Patalan River Basin Flood Plains Exposure and Vulnerability Assessment of Buildings Extracted from Lidar Derived Datasets." International Journal for Research in Applied Science and Engineering Technology 10, no. 2 (February 28, 2022): 1001–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.22214/ijraset.2022.40429.
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Abstract: Philippines, as it is known to be a stopover for Pacific typhoons, is frequently threaten by flood and landslide that endangers the lives of many Filipinos. Great amount of monetary resources are being used up annually because of incidents by annual heavy downpour in this country. The population, their source of revenue and the area are the ones affected by these unfortunate events that causes the country for millions of peso every year. In this regard, there is an obvious need for methods and strategies that will alleviate adverse situations and which will protect human lives, properties and social infrastructure against disaster phenomena. Different important parameters in disaster risk management such as earth observations, Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and Geographic Information System (GIS) were integrated and utilized in this study. This study dealt with mapping and assessment of buildings that might possibly be exposed and vulnerable to flooding based on the simulated flood maps at different rainfall scenarios in Patalan River Basin, Pangasinan, Philippines. The assessment was done through GIS overlay analysis of the CLSU PHIL-LiDAR 1 Project outputs, the 3D building GIS database and flood hazard maps. The 3D building GIS database was generated through processes and analysis of various datasets that include 1m resolution LiDAR Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), geo-tagged video captured data and high resolution images in Google Earth. The flood hazard maps with different hazard levels were generated with the use of flood models developed using the combined HEC HMS and HEC RAS. Results of this study were series of flood exposure maps and vulnerability maps with statistics at different rainfall scenarios. The number of houses, businesses and other types of building at risk of being flooded was quantified. It was observed that buildings exposed and vulnerable to flood are highest at 100 year return period. With the total of 129,800 building features extracted, results show that at 100 year return period there will be 61,377 buildings, 16,806 buildings and 23 buildings at low, medium and high hazards, respectively. Moreover, also at 100-year return period, a total of 12,569 buildings, 8,628 buildings and 17,795 buildings were identified that had high vulnerabilities to flood in terms of height at low, medium and high hazards, respectively. These produced maps can provide valuable information to the local government units and the communities around Patalan river basin in their flood disaster management through appropriate and riskconscious development in order to prevent further build-up risks. Through these maps, it is easier to disseminate information that is more realistic to the residents about the hazardous areas and to help them act on warning and evacuating measures. Keywords: Geographic Information System, flood, database, exposure, hazard
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Jeon, Jonghyeok, and Takashi Tomita. "Investigating the Effects of Super Typhoon HAGIBIS in the Northwest Pacific Ocean Using Multiple Observational Data." Remote Sensing 14, no. 22 (November 9, 2022): 5667. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs14225667.
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Various multi-source observational platforms have enabled the exploration of ocean dynamics in the Northwest Pacific Ocean (NPO). This study investigated daily oceanic variables in response to the combined effect of the 2019 super typhoon HAGIBIS and the Kuroshio current meander (KCM), which has caused economic, ecological, and climatic changes in the NPO since August 2017. During HAGIBIS, the six-hourly wind speed data estimated a wind stress power () which strengthened around the right and left semicircles of the typhoon, and an Ekman pumping velocity (EPV) which intensified at the center of the typhoon track. As a result, firstly, the sea temperature (ST) decreased along a boundary with a high EPV and a strong cyclonic eddy area, and the mixed layer depth (MLD) was shallow. Secondly, a low sea salinity (SS) concentration showed another area where heavy rain fell on the left side of the typhoon track. Phytoplankton bloom (PB) occurred with a large concentration of chlorophyll a (0.641 mg/m3) over a wide extent (56,615 km2; above 0.5 mg/m3) after one day of HAGIBIS. An analysis of a favorable environment of the PB’s growth determined the cause of the PB, and a shift of the subsurface chlorophyll maximum layer (SCML; above 0.7 mg/m3) was estimated by comprehensive impact analysis. This study may contribute to understanding different individually-estimated physical and biological mechanisms and predicting the recurrence of ocean anomalies.
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Matthews, J. Brian. "Physics of Climate Change: Harmonic and exponential processes from in situ ocean time series observations show rapid asymmetric warming." JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN PHYSICS 6, no. 2 (December 2, 2014): 1135–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.24297/jap.v6i2.6960.
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Analyses of rare ocean timeseries in the top few meters show logarithmic and exponential processes control anthropogenic global warming (AGW) of which 93% is in the oceans. Processes result in asymmetric heat capture in the North and South tropical Pacific. A new Lagrangian paradigm established a global ocean surface freshwater and heat conveyor. Climate research wrongly assumed atmospheric pan-evaporation at sea as over land, a 10m well-mixed surface layer, and ignored that seawater density depends on both salinity and temperature. In situ observations show two different heat-capture and evaporation regimes exist dependent on surface temperature and salinity. The tropical North Pacific is temperature dominant, but other tropical oceans are salinity dependent. Incident solar radiation is cyclical and greenhouse gas (GHG) heat-capture is exponential and cumulative. The rate of GHG-caused climate change is disputed and not quantitatively evaluated. A target limit of total atmospheric temperature rise of <2°C is forecast from 30 to 100 years, or not at all. It is based on doubling of total carbon emissions from the long-term stable 280ppm to 560ppm. Here we show solar cycles became less significant compared to exponentially rising GHG heat capture after the 1957 solar maximum Keeling Point. The doubling time for exponential warming is ~20 years at -0.030-0.037°Cyr-1. GHG warming of is now ~1°C. At present rates, exponential increases add +1°C in ~20yr, +2°C in ~40yr, +4°C in ~60yr, 8°C in ~80yr above existing levels. Post-1957 carbon dioxide concentration GHG forcing is also doubling in ~20yrs at 0.0268ppmyr-1. It rose from 1957-1976 by 17.1ppm, and from 1977-1996 by 34.4ppm. A further doubling by 68.4ppm would bring total emissions to 435ppm by 2017. It exceeded 400ppm in 2014. Carbon dioxide accounts for three quarters of the GHGs. Of the others, methane and HCFCs already may be out of control. Ocean surface temperature anomalies are close to the proposed +2°C limit. Century-long records in 5yr anomalies in the North Pacific show peaks of +1.6°C at the surface in 1995, and +1.3°C at 5m. North Atlantic peaks were +1.12°C in 2005 consistent Arctic freshwater fluxes. Central England temperature (CET) 5-yr peak air anomaly was +1.3°C in 2004 consistent with a rapid response in air due to low heat capacity. 2014 is a record year for temperatures and carbon dioxide total emissions. Pacific sub-surface water warmed faster than at the surface. The freshwater lid that thickened limits heat loss. The annual cycled heat increased by 3MJm-3 over 100yr at Isle of Man, by 1MJm-3 over 88yr at Scripps Pier surface, and by 4MJm-3 over 78yr at 5m. The post-1986 annual Arctic ice heat cycle decreased by -2,633MJm-3. Before 1986 tropical heat was offset against polar melt and runoff at Port Erin. After, exponentially decreasing Arctic ice reduced thickness from 1.9m-1.4m but surface area decreased more slowly than volume. This accounts for the observed increased polar ice formation surface layer at <4°C and <24.7‰ in Polar Seas. Process rate differences derive from the ~3000x greater heat capacity of water to air (3.9x106: 1.3x103Jm-3°C-1), and the ~1000x greater density (1023: 1.2 kgm-3). The top 10m operates on decadal timescales. Heat is trapped under a surface freshwater lid. Sub-surface heat penetration is on centennial and millennial timescales. It takes ~250yr since the industrial revolution for two thirds of AGW to reach ~300m. The flux of heat and freshwater through Bering Strait doubled from 2000-2007. It accounts for one third of surface layer meltwater fluxes into the Labrador Current at a rate of ~0.85Sv. The Atlantic inflow of ~8.5Sv accounts for the remainder with an Arctic residence time above the halocline of ~2.5-6 years. This is consistent with the three and half years at the Isle of Man between the seasonal 1959 October high and the record 1963 February low. The Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) compensates the land-locked Pacific surface layer bringing warm salty water under the Panama freshwater warm pool. We suggest the doubled warming of the North Pacific led to a quasi-permanent loop in the sub-polar jet stream. Warm air driven over Beringia displaces cold polar air to the North American mid-west. This resulted in continuous extreme weather over central North America in 2013-2014. In the southern hemisphere high evaporation resulted in record precipitation that temporarily reduced sealevels in 2012. Changed ocean ecological systems have been reported. The Pacific warming led to enhanced hurricane frequency from the Panama warm pool as well as super typhoons in the western North Pacific. North America now has hurricane seasons on both coasts and Hawaii, and extreme weather year-round. The warm tropical Gulf Stream/Columbus and Viking polar gyre boundary shifted northwards in the mid 1990s. It shows at Port Erin in a 1990s high seasonal salinity. After the millennium until records ceased in 2006, a seasonal freshwater layer was observed, consistent with a thickened freshwater lid over high salinity tropical water. Most long-term continuous records in the top 5m ceased in the mid 1980s. We suggest the ocean layer is warming exponentially and freshening. Global Ocean warming is known as the tragedy of the commons. Solutions include individual ownership and responsibility through, for example, managing fisheries by individual transferable quotas. The Zero Marginal Cost Society, the adopted goal of the UN and world leaders, requires a painful paradigm transition from a Newtonian to a Thermodynamic stable sustainable no-growth system. The option of population control cannot succeed in time. The EU leaders‟ commitment to reduce GHG requires reduction of ~8.9ppmyr-1 for the next 16 years to 2030. It is the only viable solution. However, it requires binding global commitments to a new paradigm conserving thermodynamic principles of maximized use of Earth‟s natural resources. In economic terms this means narrowing the gap between rich and poor and deflation to stability of zero growth. Without immediate implementation, we suggest the exponential growth will continue, and may already be beyond control. Our work needs further experimental verification in the near-surface ocean on short space and timescales especially along meridional transects. The Isle of Man and Galapagos Islands, with both tropical and polar water, are ideal to establish constant monitoring of temperature, salinity, pH currents, and sealevel at 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, and 10m along with standard Met observations including pan evaporation and precipitation on purpose-build piers. Ocean-side measurements allow data to be collected efficiently with calibrated instruments if part of well-funded independent University–level research. This way a new generation of young scientists well trained in classical physics can establish the scientific truth through experimental verification. This could proceed as part of a crash program to develop alternative natural energy resources based on geothermal heat exchange, pumped storage, tides and tidal currents, solar, winds and renewable carbon until nuclear fusion comes online as the ultimate solution.
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Ng, Kelvin S., and Gregor C. Leckebusch. "A new view on the risk of typhoon occurrence in the western North Pacific." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 21, no. 2 (February 16, 2021): 663–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-663-2021.
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Abstract. To study high-impact tropical cyclones (TCs) is of crucial importance due to their extraordinary destructive potential that leads to major losses in many coastal areas in the western North Pacific (WNP). Nevertheless, because of the rarity of high-impact TCs, it is difficult to construct a robust hazard assessment based on the historical best track records. This paper aims to address this issue by introducing a computationally simple and efficient approach to build a physically consistent high-impact TC event set with non-realised TC events in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archive. This event set contains more than 10 000 years of TC events. The temporal and spatial characteristics of the new event set are consistent with the historical TC climatology in the WNP. It is shown that this TC event set contains ∼100 and ∼77 times more very severe typhoons and violent typhoons than the historical records, respectively. Furthermore, this approach can be used to improve the return-period estimation of TC-associated extreme wind. Consequently, a robust extreme TC hazard assessment, reflective of the current long-term climate variability phase, can be achieved using this approach.
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Sato, Shinji, Keisuke Murakami, Kunihiro Watanabe, Yuuichi Okamura, Shin Hashimoto, and Masahiro Ohno. "ECO-SYSTEM BASED BEACH EROSION CONTROL BY BERM NOURISHMENT COMBINED WITH BURIED SAND TUBE." Coastal Engineering Proceedings, no. 36 (December 30, 2018): 102. http://dx.doi.org/10.9753/icce.v36.risk.102.
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Miyazaki Coast is a 10 km stretch sandy beach between the Miyazaki Port and the Hitotsuse River, located south of Japan facing the Pacific Ocean. Significant beach erosion has been observed owing to the entrapment of sand in the harbor area and the blockage of longshore sand transport by the river mouth jetties. Sato et al. (ICCE 2010) estimated that the direction of the long-term longshore sand transport is to the southward on the basis of thermo-luminescence measurement of beach sediments. Continuous bathymetry surveys indicated the southward longshore sand transport rate at 200 thousand m3/year. However, a large variability of the incident wave direction suggested the variability in the direction of the longshore transport. Occasional attacks of typhoon storms appeared to accelerate the erosion. As a countermeasure to mitigate the erosion, sand nourishment has been introduced since 2008 with the amount of 50 to 80 thousand m3/year. Three groins were constructed to decrease the longshore transport. However, further erosion has been observed by typhoon storms even on the nourished area. This paper describes the results of on-site monitoring of waves, currents and topography change to understand the role of typhoon storms in beach erosion and to investigate the performance of eco-system based erosion control works.
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Li, Qinglan, Zenglu Li, Yulong Peng, Xiaoxue Wang, Lei Li, Hongping Lan, Shengzhong Feng, Liqun Sun, Guangxin Li, and Xiaolin Wei. "Statistical Regression Scheme for Intensity Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific." Weather and Forecasting 33, no. 5 (September 27, 2018): 1299–315. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-18-0001.1.
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Abstract This study proposes a statistical regression scheme to forecast tropical cyclone (TC) intensity at 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, and 72 h in the northwestern Pacific region. This study utilizes best track data from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute (STI), China, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), United States, from 2000 to 2015. In addition to conventional factors involving climatology and persistence, this study pays close attention to the land effect on TC intensity change by considering a new factor involving the ratio of seawater area to land area (SL ratio) in the statistical regression model. TC intensity changes are investigated over the entire life-span, over the open ocean, near the coast, and after landfall. Data from 2000 to 2011 are used for model calibration, and data from 2012 to 2015 are used for model validation. The results show that the intensity change during the previous 12 h (DVMAX), the potential future intensity change (POT), and the area-averaged (200–800 km) wind shear at 1000–300 hPa (SHRD) are the most significant predictors of the intensity change for TCs over the open ocean and near the coast. Intensity forecasting for TCs near the coast and over land is improved with the addition of the SL ratio compared with that of the models that do not consider the SL ratio. As this study has considered the TC intensity change over the entire TC life-span, the proposed models are valuable and practical for forecasting TC intensity change over the open ocean, near the coast, and after landfall.
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Yamada, Seiji, and Absalon Galat. "Typhoon Yolanda/Haiyan and Climate Justice." Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness 8, no. 5 (October 2014): 432–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2014.97.
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AbstractThe extreme weather events that the world is experiencing are consistent with the effects of anthropogenic climate change. The western North Pacific is the area of the world with the most intense tropical cyclones. Increased sea surface temperatures directly contribute to the wind speed of storms. The 2013 Typhoon Yolanda/Haiyan was the strongest tropical cyclone in recorded history to make landfall—causing more than 6000 deaths in the Philippines, mostly from storm surge. This event represents a climate injustice. On one hand, disaster prevention and preparedness were inadequate for impoverished populations in the Philippines who lived in poorly constructed housing. While the international community assisted with the response, recovery was hampered by inadequate and inequitable investment. On the other hand, climate change has been driven by the carbon emissions of industrialized states. Those who call for climate justice argue for more robust measures to control carbon emissions responsible for climate change and worsening global health security. As global citizens and as health professionals, we examine the implications for all of us as moral actors. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2014;0:1-4)
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Yen, Kuo-Wei, Chia-I. Pan, Chia-Hsiang Chen, and Wei-Hsiang Lien. "Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Fish Larvae and Juveniles in the Waters around Taiwan from 2007 to 2019." Animals 12, no. 15 (July 25, 2022): 1890. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ani12151890.
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Taiwan is located at the intersection of tropical and subtropical islands in the western Pacific Ocean. This area is an important spawning and breeding ground for many economic and noneconomic species; however, little is known about the long-term dynamics of fish larvae and juveniles in these waters. In this study, we conducted an in-depth exploration of their spatial characteristics using 2007–2019 field survey samples. Our results demonstrated the seasonality and spatiality of the larvae and juveniles of different fish species. We also found that the continental shelf and offshore distance were key factors affecting fish larvae and juveniles. Changes in community structure were temporally correlated with the extreme rainfall of Typhoon Morakot (the worst typhoon ever recorded in Taiwan). These data can be used as a management reference for fisheries’ policymaking and provide key insights into nearby marine ecosystems and the early life history of fish.
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Larsén, Xiaoli Guo, and Søren Ott. "Adjusted spectral correction method for calculating extreme winds in tropical-cyclone-affected water areas." Wind Energy Science 7, no. 6 (December 14, 2022): 2457–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/wes-7-2457-2022.
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Abstract. A method is developed to calculate the extreme wind for tropical-cyclone-affected water areas. The method is based on the spectral correction method by Larsén et al. (2012) in connection with the use of numerically modeled data, where an enhancement coefficient is derived as a function of wind speed to reflect the large wind fluctuation during tropical cyclones. This is done through calibration with the estimates from Ott (2005), who used the best track data and Holland model to estimate the extreme wind over the typhoon-affected area in the western North Pacific. The method is applied in the current study to three regions where the 50-year winds with an effective temporal resolution of 10 min are obtained at 10, 50, 100 and 150 m. The results are in agreement with Ott (2005) over their study domain, though with much more spatial details of the extreme wind distribution.
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Weissmann, Martin, Florian Harnisch, Chun-Chieh Wu, Po-Hsiung Lin, Yoichiro Ohta, Koji Yamashita, Yeon-Hee Kim, Eun-Hee Jeon, Tetsuo Nakazawa, and Sim Aberson. "The Influence of Assimilating Dropsonde Data on Typhoon Track and Midlatitude Forecasts." Monthly Weather Review 139, no. 3 (March 1, 2011): 908–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010mwr3377.1.
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Abstract A unique dataset of targeted dropsonde observations was collected during The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) in the autumn of 2008. The campaign was supplemented by an enhancement of the operational Dropsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR) program. For the first time, up to four different aircraft were available for typhoon observations and over 1500 additional soundings were collected. This study investigates the influence of assimilating additional observations during the two major typhoon events of T-PARC on the typhoon track forecast by the global models of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and the limited-area Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Additionally, the influence of T-PARC observations on ECMWF midlatitude forecasts is investigated. All models show an improving tendency of typhoon track forecasts, but the degree of improvement varied from about 20% to 40% in NCEP and WRF to a comparably low influence in ECMWF and JMA. This is likely related to lower track forecast errors without dropsondes in the latter two models, presumably caused by a more extensive use of satellite data and four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) of ECMWF and JMA compared to three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-Var) of NCEP and WRF. The different behavior of the models emphasizes that the benefit gained strongly depends on the quality of the first-guess field and the assimilation system.
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Montgomery, M. T., L. L. Lussier III, R. W. Moore, and Z. Wang. "The genesis of Typhoon Nuri as observed during the Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008 (TCS-08) field experiment – Part 1: The role of the easterly wave critical layer." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 10, no. 20 (October 20, 2010): 9879–900. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-9879-2010.
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Abstract. An observational and real-time model forecast study of the genesis of Typhoon Nuri during the Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008 (TCS-08) field campaign in the western North Pacific sector is presented. Analysis and observational data show that the surrounding base state is an easterly trade wind flow and the precursor disturbance to Typhoon Nuri is an easterly wave that originates in the ITCZ in the Central Pacific. This disturbance can be tracked more than 10 days prior to tropical storm formation. An overview of the field data is presented here using a newly proposed dynamical framework for tropical cyclone formation within the critical layer of an easterly wave. Despite propagating through a hostile environment ripe with strong vertical wind shear and relatively dry air, the easterly wave critical layer protects the proto-vortex and allows it to gestate until it reaches a more favorable environment. Within this protective "Kelvin cat's eye flow" located within the wave's critical layer existed a sweet spot, defined as the intersection between the wave trough and critical latitude, which is the preferred location for tropical cyclogenesis. Global Forecast System Final Analyses and IR satellite imagery, which shows convective bands wrapping around the sweet spot as genesis nears, confirm that this sweet spot is the location where Typhoon Nuri's dominant low-level circulation emerges. United States Air Force C130 and Naval Research Laboratory P3 research flights on 16 and 17 August collected flight-level, dropwindsonde, and Doppler radar data that allowed an evaluation of the dynamic and thermodynamic processes within the cat's eye circulation. The dropwindsonde analyses identifies the precursor easterly wave disturbance on 16 August and identifies an area of weak low-level cyclonic circulation on 17 August. Real-time forecasts were produced using operational global prediction model data to support scientific missions during TCS-08. These forecasts were found to be useful in flight planning discussions and predicted Typhoon Nuri's eventual genesis latitude within 1.5 degrees 72 h in advance.
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Nan, Qingyun, Tiegang Li, Jinxia Chen, Rajiv Nigma, Xinke Yu, Zhaokai Xu, and Zaibao Yang. "Late Holocene (~ 2 ka) East Asian Monsoon variations inferred from river discharge and climate interrelationships in the Pearl River Estuary." Quaternary Research 81, no. 2 (March 2014): 240–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2013.12.004.
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AbstractA sediment core from the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) was analyzed for grain size and organic geochemistry parameters (TOC and δ13Corg). The results showed that high mean grain-size value and increased sand content were correlated with the high TOC and negative δ13Corg. These results indicated high river runoff in the PRE area. Peak river discharge occurred during the periods 1900–1750, 1500–1600, 1400–1200, 1000–900 and 750–600 cal yr BP. The main changes recorded in grain-size distributions, TOC contents, and δ13Corg variations appear to be directly related to monsoon precipitation in the sediment source area. An increased East Asian summer monsoon rainfall (EASM) and/or an enhanced East Asian winter monsoon rainfall could result in the increasing of monsoon rainfall. Typhoon related rainfalls could act as positive influence on precipitation levels. The study of the correlations between the rainfall records and ENSO activities revealed a close relationship between the monsoon rainfall in the PRE and the tropical Pacific variations. The frequent occurrence of ENSO might result in the southern migration of the EASM rain belt and lead to more typhoon-derived rainfall in the PRD during the late Holocene.
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Aberson, Sim D. "The Impact of Dropwindsonde Data from the THORPEX Pacific Area Regional Campaign and the NOAA Hurricane Field Program on Tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the Global Forecast System." Monthly Weather Review 139, no. 9 (September 2011): 2689–703. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2011mwr3634.1.
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Four aircraft released dropwindsondes in and around tropical cyclones in the west Pacific during The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Area Regional Campaign (T-PARC) in 2008 and the Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR); multiple aircraft concurrently participated in similar missions in the Atlantic. Previous studies have treated each region separately and have focused on the tropical cyclones whose environments were sampled. The large number of missions and tropical cyclones in both regions, and additional tropical cyclones in the east Pacific and Indian Oceans, allows for the global impact of these observations on tropical cyclone track forecasts to be studied. The study shows that there are unintended global consequences to local changes in initial conditions, in this case due to the assimilation of dropwindsonde data in tropical cyclone environments. These global impacts are mainly due to the spectral nature of the model system. These differences should be small and slightly positive, since improved local initial conditions should lead to small global forecast improvements. However, the impacts on tropical cyclones far removed from the data are shown to be as large and positive as those on the tropical cyclones specifically targeted for improved track forecasts. Causes of this unexpected result are hypothesized, potentially providing operational forecasters tools to identify when large remote impacts from surveillance missions might occur.
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Bao, Xuwei, Noel E. Davidson, Hui Yu, Mai C. N. Hankinson, Zhian Sun, Lawrence J. Rikus, Jianyong Liu, Zifeng Yu, and Dan Wu. "Diagnostics for an Extreme Rain Event near Shanghai during the Landfall of Typhoon Fitow (2013)." Monthly Weather Review 143, no. 9 (August 31, 2015): 3377–405. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-14-00241.1.
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Abstract Typhoon Fitow made landfall south of Shanghai, China, on 6 October 2013. During the following two days, precipitation in excess of 300 mm day−1 occurred 400 km to the north of the typhoon center. The rain-producing systems included (i) outward-spiraling rainbands, which developed in the storm’s north sector in favorable environmental wind shear, and (ii) frontal cloud as a result of coastal frontogenesis. Over the rain area, in addition to enhanced ascent, there were increases in low-level moisture, convective instability, and midlevel relative vorticity. There is evidence of a preconditioning period prior to the rain when midlevel subsidence and boundary layer moistening occurred. From analysis of low-level equivalent potential temperature the following observations were made: (i) after landfall, a cold, dry airstream wrapped into Fitow’s circulation from the north, limiting the inner-core rainfall and producing a cold-air boundary, and (ii) an extended warm, moist airstream from the east converged with the cold-air intrusion over the rain area. The heavy rain occurred as the large-scale flow reorganized. Major anticyclones developed over China and the North Pacific. At upper levels, a large-amplitude trough relocated over central China with the entrance to a southwesterly jet positioned near Shanghai. Back trajectories from the rain area indicate that four environmental interactions developed: (i) increasing midlevel injection of moist potential vorticity (PV) from Fitow’s circulation; (ii) low-level warm, moist inflow from the east; (iii) midlevel inflow from nearby Typhoon Danas; and (iv) decreasing mid- to upper-level injection of PV from the midlatitude trough. The authors propose that the resultant PV structure change provided a very favorable environment for the development of rain systems.
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Joshi, Drumil, Fawzan Sayed, Harsh Jain, Jai Beri, Yukti Bandi, and Dr Sunil Karamchandani. "A Cloud Native Machine Learning based Approach for Detection and Impact of Cyclone and Hurricanes on Coastal Areas of Pacific and Atlantic Ocean." Journal of University of Shanghai for Science and Technology 23, no. 07 (July 7, 2021): 394–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.51201/jusst/21/07149.
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Tropical Storms are one of the most dangerous natural disasters known to man. The concept of predicting these has been around for as long as they have existed. Improvements are made to reduce the error using newer techniques or better processes. In this research paper, we are trying to predict the occurrence of storms from the Pacific and the Atlantic Oceans on American land. The data is used to train various machine learning models and comparison is drawn between them to conclude the best for our application. The results are then shown on a map to get a visual representation using the folium library. The entire project is also deployed using Microsoft Machine Learning Azure to help with deployment over the web service. This paper hopes to present a system that accurately predicts and efficiently presents everything regarding the real-time occurrence of hurricanes and typhoons.