Academic literature on the topic 'Typhoons Pacific Area'
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Journal articles on the topic "Typhoons Pacific Area"
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Tan, Ji Qing, Hui Qi Li, and Zhao Xia Zheng. "New Climate Diagnostic Method of Activity of Typhoons over the Northwestern Pacific Ocean." Applied Mechanics and Materials 71-78 (July 2011): 3118–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.71-78.3118.
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A new conception, called the Most Direct Impact Area (MDIA) of typhoons, is put forward in this paper. After the computational method is explained in detail, the databank of 1955 typhoons of China Meteorological Administration (CMA) have been calculated on the Linux operational platform with a Fortran compiler in a computer. The results via calculating the geographic distribution of the MDIA of typhoons show that the characteristic of typhoon activity in a year can be easily identified in quantity. A most interesting feature has been found that typhoon activity is abnormally active over the ocean to the south of Japan in three typical El Niño years.
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Bo-yu, Chai, Xu Feng, Xu Jian-jun, Han Li-guo, Chen Si-Qi, LI Ya-jie, JI Qian-qian, Yang Jin-yi, Zhang Shao-jing, and LI Jia-jing. "The influence of radiation flux in Northwest Pacific on the Western Pacific warm pools and typhoons over the past 170 years." Environmental Research Communications 3, no. 12 (December 1, 2021): 125004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ac3ef5.
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Abstract Based on various statistical methods and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, this study analyzes the correlation of radiation flux of Northwest Pacific in the 100 years scale with the western Pacific warm pool and typhoon development. The key results are as follows. First, the surface downwelling longwave radiation (SDLR) received by key areas in Northwest Pacific significantly increased over the past 170 years. The surface downwelling shortwave radiation (SDSR) decreased, and TOA (Top of Atmosphere) incident shortwave radiation (TISR) slightly fluctuated and increased in the 11a (11 years) period. Second, there was the strongest correlation between the Western Pacific warm pool and SDLR, and both increased continuously. Third, since 1945, there has been a tendency of increasing after decreasing in the annual frequency and the share of severe typhoons, and the formation area distribution of typhoons has turned more even. Taking 1998 as a cut-off point, before 1998, there was no obvious correlation between the strong typhoon frequency and SDLR. However, such correction became stronger after 1998. They were affected by the changes of SDLR, SDSR, TISR, vapor, vorticity, vertical velocity, SST and h 100. Forth, the SDLR and TISR are major factors influencing the Western Pacific warm pool, typhoon motion and other varieties. While SDLR mainly increases in the tropical areas, TISR tends to fluctuate and increase slightly. Their changes are consistent with the change general characteristics of strengthening of typhoon.
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Wu, Liguang, Huijun Zong, and Jia Liang. "Observational Analysis of Sudden Tropical Cyclone Track Changes in the Vicinity of the East China Sea." Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 68, no. 12 (December 1, 2011): 3012–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010jas3559.1.
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Abstract An observational analysis of observed sudden typhoon track changes is conducted with a focus on the underlying mechanism and the possible role of slowly varying low-frequency flows. Four typhoons that took a generally northwestward track prior to sharply turning northeastward in the vicinity of the East China Sea are investigated. It is found that the sudden track changes occurred near the center of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO)-scale cyclonic circulation or at the bifurcation point of the steering flows at 700 hPa, and they were all associated with a well-developed quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBW)-scale gyre. Calculation of vorticity advection suggests that the peripheral ridging resulting from the interaction between the typhoons and the flows on the MJO and QBW scales can compress the typhoon circulation, leading to an area of high winds to the east or south of the typhoon center. The enhanced synoptic-scale winds shifted the typhoons northward and placed them in a northeastward orbit under the steering of the flows associated with the Pacific subtropical high. The sudden track change can be likened to the maneuvering of satellite orbit change in that the enhanced synoptic-scale winds act as a booster rocket to shift the typhoons northward to the southwesterly steering flows.
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Kim, Jong-Suk, Anxiang Chen, Junghwan Lee, Il-Ju Moon, and Young-Il Moon. "Statistical Prediction of Typhoon-Induced Rainfall over China Using Historical Rainfall, Tracks, and Intensity of Typhoon in the Western North Pacific." Remote Sensing 12, no. 24 (December 17, 2020): 4133. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs12244133.
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Typhoons or mature tropical cyclones (TCs) can affect inland areas of up to hundreds of kilometers with heavy rains and strong winds, along with landslides causing numerous casualties and property damage due to concentrated precipitation over short time periods. To reduce these damages, it is necessary to accurately predict the rainfall induced by TCs in the western North Pacific Region. However, despite dramatic advances in observation and numerical modeling, the accuracy of prediction of typhoon-induced rainfall and spatial distribution remains limited. The present study offers a statistical approach to predicting the accumulated rainfall associated with typhoons based on a historical storm track and intensity data along with observed rainfall data for 55 typhoons affecting the southeastern coastal areas of China from 1961 to 2017. This approach is shown to provide an average root mean square error of 51.2 mm across 75 meteorological stations in the southeast coastal area of China (ranging from 15.8 to 87.3 mm). Moreover, the error is less than 70 mm for most stations, and significantly lower in the three verification cases, thus demonstrating the feasibility of this approach. Furthermore, the use of fuzzy C-means clustering, ensemble averaging, and corrections to typhoon intensities, can provide more accurate rainfall predictions from the method applied herein, thus allowing for improvements to disaster preparedness and emergency response.
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Mitobe, Yuta, Hitoshi Tanaka, Akihiro Suzuki, Makoto Umeda, Daisuke Komori, and Yoshiya Touge. "BEACH MORPHOLOGICAL CHANGES ON SENDAI COAST BY TYPHOON LIONROCK." Coastal Engineering Proceedings, no. 36 (December 30, 2018): 34. http://dx.doi.org/10.9753/icce.v36.sediment.34.
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In 2016, a few typhoons attacked Tohoku Area of Japan, and one of them, named Typhoon Lionrock, approached and hit Tohoku Area from the Pacific Coast, which is the first observed typhoon to have such a course in the observation history of Japan. In order to know magnitude of the storm surge and high waves induced by the typhoon and their influence on the coastal area, field surveys were conducted on the day of the typhoon arrival and also the next day. The target of the survey was Sendai Coast, which is a part of the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Area. The coast was severely affected by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Tsunami, and its effect on the beach morphology still remains according to shoreline change analysis with aerial photographs by Hoang et al. (2016). In this paper, the shoreline changes by and after the typhoon were analyzed with the aerial photographs taken in every one or two months to understand its effect on the beach processes. And the results were combined with the shoreline data after the 2011 tsunami to see the impact of the typhoon on the beach processes under the recovery from the tsunami event.
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Song, Dan, Lulu Xiang, Linghui Guo, and Bo Li. "Estimating Typhoon-Induced Sea Surface Cooling Based upon Satellite Observations." Water 12, no. 11 (November 1, 2020): 3060. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12113060.
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Typhoons frequently occur in the summer in the northwestern Pacific Ocean, and the responses of the upper ocean to typhoons have drawn extensive attention for decades. In the present work, a modified grid-based maximum response (GMR) method was proposed to estimate the sea surface cooling (SSC) caused by typhoons. The current algorithm (CA) is different from the original GMR method mainly in two aspects: (1) it uses a 5 day average rather than a 2 day average of the sea surface temperature (SST) before the typhoon as the reference temperature; (2) it modifies the fixed radius of 400 km to the level-7 Beaufort scale wind-force (~17.1 m/s) radius to determine the area where the SSC should be calculated. Then the MW-IR OISST data derived from satellite observations were used to compare the SSC estimated by different algorithms in four typhoon cases, Megi, LionRock, Trami and KongRey. The results show that, in all cases, maximum response methods have approached similar results, while the others seemed to have underestimated the SSC in degrees. In the slow-moving LionRock case, grid-based methods were found to have better performance, while in the successive typhoon cases, Trami and KongRey, CA showed an improved result in representing the pre-existing sea surface status before the typhoon KongRey by using the pentad mean SST as the reference temperature. In addition, the use of level-7 wind-force coverage made the results much livelier. In a word, the algorithm proposed here is valid in general. It has advantages in estimating the SSC caused by both slow-moving typhoons and successive typhoons, and should be further applied to related research.
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Hsu, Po-Chun, Chung-Ru Ho, Shin-Jye Liang, and Nan-Jung Kuo. "Impacts of Two Types of El Niño and La Niña Events on Typhoon Activity." Advances in Meteorology 2013 (2013): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/632470.
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The HadISST (Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature) dataset is used to define the years of El Niño, El Niño Modoki, and La Niña events and to find out the impacts of these events on typhoon activity. The results show that the formation positions of typhoon are farther eastward moving in El Niño years than in La Niña years and much further eastward in El Niño Modoki years. The lifetime and the distance of movement are longer, and the intensity of typhoons is stronger in El Niño and in El Niño Modoki years than in La Niña years. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy of typhoon is highly correlated with the Oceanic Niño Index with a correlation coefficient of 0.79. We also find that the typhoons anomalously decrease during El Niño years but increase during El Niño Modoki years. Besides, there are two types of El Niño Modoki, I and II. The intensity of typhoon in El Niño Modoki I years is stronger than in El Niño Modoki II years. Furthermore, the centroid position of the Western Pacific Warm Pool is strongly related to the area of typhoon formation with a correlation coefficient of 0.95.
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Wei, Chih-Chiang. "Development of Stacked Long Short-Term Memory Neural Networks with Numerical Solutions for Wind Velocity Predictions." Advances in Meteorology 2020 (July 23, 2020): 1–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/5462040.
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Taiwan, being located on a path in the west Pacific Ocean where typhoons often strike, is often affected by typhoons. The accompanying strong winds and torrential rains make typhoons particularly damaging in Taiwan. Therefore, we aimed to establish an accurate wind speed prediction model for future typhoons, allowing for better preparation to mitigate a typhoon’s toll on life and property. For more accurate wind speed predictions during a typhoon episode, we used cutting-edge machine learning techniques to construct a wind speed prediction model. To ensure model accuracy, we used, as variable input, simulated values from the Weather Research and Forecasting model of the numerical weather prediction system in addition to adopting deeper neural networks that can deepen neural network structures in the construction of estimation models. Our deeper neural networks comprise multilayer perceptron (MLP), deep recurrent neural networks (DRNNs), and stacked long short-term memory (LSTM). These three model-structure types differ by their memory capacity: MLPs are model networks with no memory capacity, whereas DRNNs and stacked LSTM are model networks with memory capacity. A model structure with memory capacity can analyze time-series data and continue memorizing and learning along the time axis. The study area is northeastern Taiwan. Results showed that MLP, DRNN, and stacked LSTM prediction error rates increased with prediction time (1–6 hours). Comparing the three models revealed that model networks with memory capacity (DRNN and stacked LSTM) were more accurate than those without memory capacity. A further comparison of model networks with memory capacity revealed that stacked LSTM yielded slightly more accurate results than did DRNN. Additionally, we determined that in the construction of the wind speed prediction model, the use of numerically simulated values reduced the error rate approximately by 30%. These results indicate that the inclusion of numerically simulated values in wind speed prediction models enhanced their prediction accuracy.
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Chan, Johnny C. L. "Decadal variations of intense typhoon occurrence in the western North Pacific." Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 464, no. 2089 (October 30, 2007): 249–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2007.0183.
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The causes of one of the two major oscillation periods, 16–32 years, identified through a wavelet analysis, of the time series of the frequency of intense typhoon (categories 4 and 5 in the Saffir–Simpson scale) occurrence for the period 1960–2005 in the western North Pacific (WNP) is studied in this paper. By dividing this period into sub-periods during which the frequency of intense typhoon occurrence was above or below normal on this time scale, various thermodynamic and dynamic factors in each sub-period are examined. During the above-normal periods, the sea surface temperature in the southeastern part of the WNP (5–20° N, 150–180° E) is found to be slightly higher. Within this area, the moist static energy (MSE) is also higher and the vertical gradient of saturated MSE in the lower troposphere is more negative. At the same time, the low-level streamfunction anomalies tend to have a negative maximum and the vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa is also relatively small. Thus, both the thermodynamic and dynamic conditions within this area are more conducive to the development of tropical cyclones (TCs). As these cyclones move northwestward, the favourable dynamic conditions continue to be present so that they can intensify further. The steering flow is such that many of these typhoons will stay over water for an extended period of time through low-latitude recurvature. As a result, they can intensify to become category 4 or 5 typhoons. The conditions during the below-normal periods are generally opposite. A major conclusion from the results of this study is that the frequency of intense typhoon occurrence undergoes a strong multi-decadal (16–32 years) variation due to similar variations in the planetary scale oceanographic and atmospheric conditions that govern the formation, intensification and movement of TCs. These latter variations are largely contributed by the El Niño and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on similar time scales.
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Cui, Ting Ting, Yong Liu, Yin Tang Wang, and Zong Zhi Wang. "Analysis of Relationship between Characteristics of Typhoon Affecting the Taihu Basin and the early Sea-Surface Temperature." Advanced Materials Research 550-553 (July 2012): 2498–504. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.550-553.2498.
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A standard was proposed to define the typhoon affecting the Taihu Basin (TATB) based on the typhoon source, landing location, moving path, typhoon-affected area and precipitation in the Taihu Basin. According to the definition, 230 typhoons were extracted from the 62 years observation data (1949-2010) to analyze the relationships between the characteristics of typhoon which affacted the Taihu Basin and the early relevant regional sea-surface temperature. The results showed the tendencies of the TATB frequency and the earliest affected time were no significant change throughout the long series of statistics; the latest affected time was postponed obviously throughout the long series of statistics; the change of typhoon frequency had two notable periods (21 years and 7 years), and the 21years period was relatively stable throughout the long series of statistics; when the spring of the sea-surface temperature (SST) of the west Pacific Ocean raised and the SST of the east Pacific Ocean near the equator decreased, easy to cause the frequency of the TATB might increase and vice versa TATB frequency decrease. The research results have a certain significance on the Taihu Basin flood control.
Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Typhoons Pacific Area"
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Wang, Po-Yuan, and 王柏元. "A Study of the Relationship between Western Pacific Warm Pool and Typhoon Generating Area." Thesis, 2012. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/80831442486417495882.
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碩士國立臺灣海洋大學
海洋環境資訊學系
100
In this study, the data of typhoons in the western North Pacific and the monthly mean sea surface temperature data from 1982 to 2008 were used to investigate the relationship between typhoons’ generating locations and the variation of western Pacific warm pool (WPWP). The generating locations of typhoons in each year were averaged to obtain the yearly means. The longitudes and latitudes of yearly mean generating locations of typhoons were then analyzed by the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method. The monthly mean sea surface temperature data from AVHRR Pathfinder V5 were used to calculate the centroid of WPWP. The longitudes and latitudes of monthly centroids were also analyzed by EEMD. The results indicate a trend that the centroid of WPWP moved northwest. It means that the centroid of WPWP moves closely to Taiwan. A similar trend is also found in the generating location of typhoon. Both have a significant positive correlation. This could be a reason why the warming rate of sea surface temperature near Taiwan is higher than that of global oceans. It also provides a possible explanation of the number and intensity variations of typhoon’s hitting Taiwan in recent years. Keywords: Western Pacific warm pool, Typhoon, EEMD, Trend, Sea surface temperature
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Holt, Christina. "Testing a Coupled Global-limited-area Data Assimilation System Using Observations from the 2004 Pacific Typhoon Season." Thesis, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/ETD-TAMU-2011-08-9928.
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Tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity forecasts have improved in recent years due to increased model resolution, improved data assimilation, and the rapid increase in the number of routinely assimilated observations over oceans. The data assimilation approach that has received the most attention in recent years is Ensemble Kalman Filtering (EnKF). The most attractive feature of the EnKF is that it uses a fully flow-dependent estimate of the error statistics, which can have important benefits for the analysis of rapidly developing TCs.
We implement the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter algorithm, a variation of the EnKF, on a reduced-resolution version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) model and the NCEP Regional Spectral Model (RSM) to build a coupled global-limited area analysis/forecast system. This is the first time, to our knowledge, that such a system is used for the analysis and forecast of tropical cyclones. We use data from summer 2004 to study eight tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific.
The benchmark data sets that we use to assess the performance of our system are the NCEP Reanalysis and the NCEP Operational GFS analyses from 2004. These benchmark analyses were both obtained by the Statistical Spectral Interpolation, which was the operational data assimilation system of NCEP in 2004. The GFS Operational analysis assimilated a large number of satellite radiance observations in addition to the observations assimilated in our system. All analyses are verified against the Joint Typhoon Warning Center Best Track data set. The errors are calculated for the position and intensity of the TCs.
The global component of the ensemble-based system shows improvement in position analysis over the NCEP Reanalysis, but shows no significant difference from the NCEP operational analysis for most of the storm tracks. The regional component of our system improves position analysis over all the global analyses. The intensity analyses, measured by the minimum sea level pressure, are of similar quality in all of the analyses. Regional deterministic forecasts started from our analyses are generally not significantly different from those started from the GFS operational analysis. On average, the regional experiments performed better for longer than 48 h sea level pressure forecasts, while the global forecast performed better in predicting the position for longer than 48 h.
Books on the topic "Typhoons Pacific Area"
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Tan, See Seng. The Responsibility to Provide in Southeast Asia. Policy Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1332/policypress/9781529200720.001.0001.
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Are the sovereign states of Southeast Asia responsible actors that care and provide for their own as well as their neighbours? Do they act hospitably towards each other? This book examines an embryonic ‘ethos’ of intraregional responsibility among Southeast Asian countries. Unevenly distributed and more apparent in some states than others, the ethic has been expressed as acts of hospitality shown to victims of earthquakes, typhoons and other natural disasters, and increasingly in conflict situations. This sovereign responsibility to provide, or the ‘R2Provide’ as this book calls it, has manifested as forms of assistance – mediated through ASEAN but also bilaterally – given to neighbours coping with economic difficulties, problems of militancy and terrorism and the like. But unlike the global norm of the responsibility to protect (R2P), the R2Provide is noninterventionist in practice. More indirectly, it has also materialised as a mutual reliance by regional states on pacific and increasingly rules-based approaches to manage and, where feasible, resolve their disputes with one another. The contention is not that Southeast Asians have never, whether by commission or omission, behaved irresponsibly or unethically – the region’s belated and deficient response to the Rohingya refugee crisis is but one of many tragic examples – but that they are misrepresented as void of responsible conduct. By way of Emmanuel Levinas’ concept of ‘responsibility for the other’, the book provides an ethical-theoretical explanation for the R2Provide and sovereign responsibility in Southeast Asia.
Book chapters on the topic "Typhoons Pacific Area"
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Wu, Zhiyuan, and Mack Conde. "Response of the Coastal Ocean to Tropical Cyclones." In Current Topics in Tropical Cyclone Research. IntechOpen, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.90620.
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The Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea region are the birthplaces of most monsoon disturbances and tropical cyclones and are an important channel for the generation and transmission of water vapor. The Northwest Pacific plays a major role in regulating interdecadal and long-term changes in climate. China experiences the largest number of typhoon landfalls and the most destructive power affected by typhoons in the world. The hidden dangers of typhoon disasters are accelerating with the acceleration of urbanization, the rapid development of economic construction and global warming. The coastal cities are the most dynamic and affluent areas of China’s economic development. They are the strong magnetic field that attracts international capital in China, and are also the most densely populated areas and important port groups in China. Although these regions are highly developed, they are vulnerable to disasters. When typhoons hit, the economic losses and casualties caused by gale, heavy rain and storm surges were particularly serious. This chapter reviews the response of coastal ocean to tropical cyclones, included sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, storm surge simulation and extreme rainfall under the influence of tropical cyclones.
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Inoue, Yukiko, and Suzanne Bell. "Guam and Micronesia." In Teaching with Educational Technology in the 21st Century, 1–23. IGI Global, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-59140-723-2.ch001.
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Pacific means “peaceful.” Ferdinand Magellan named it when he became the first European to sail across the ocean in 1521. Since it was so calm, he called it the Pacific Ocean. Magellan never saw one of the Pacific typhoons. A few years before Magellan, a Spanish explorer named Balboa was the first European to see the ocean when he walked across the Isthmus of Panama. Since he was facing south, he named the ocean the South Seas. Actually, most of the ocean was to the west of him. If you look at a globe of the Earth, you will notice that the Pacific Ocean is the single largest feature on Earth. All other oceans and all continents are smaller than the Pacific. (Ridgell, 1995, p. 3)
Conference papers on the topic "Typhoons Pacific Area"
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Ho, Chung-Ru, Yen-Hsuan Tsao, Nan-Jung Kuo, and Shih-Jen Huang. "Estimation of Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential From Oceanic Measurements." In ASME 2011 30th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. ASMEDC, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2011-50086.
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The primary purpose of this study is to estimate the tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) in the western North Pacific Ocean using in-situ measurements and satellite remote sensing data, as well as to explore the influence of TCHP on the genesis and intensification of typhoon in this region. The TCHP is defined as the integration of heat content from the depth of 26°C isotherm to the sea surface. Sea surface height and sea surface temperature data are used to estimate the TCHP based on a two-layer reduced gravity model. Totally 35 typhoons from 2006 to 2009 are analyzed in this study. The result shows that the typhoon is dramatically developed when it goes through the area with more TCHP than surroundings. From the result of regression analysis, the correlation coefficient between typhoon intensity and accumulated TCHP is above 0.8. It implies that the typhoon intensity changes might be controlled by the TCHP conditions of tropical cyclone formation region.
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Shi, Jian, Antoine Joly, Jinhai Zheng, Jisheng Zhang, Tian Chen, and Guofei Chen. "Development of a Sea-State Database in the Northwest Pacific Ocean by Long-Term Numerical Hindcast Modelling." In 2017 25th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/icone25-66281.
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In the Northwest Pacific zone, all the active nuclear power plants are located in coastal areas. The extreme typhoon waves, which occur in summer and autumn, pose great risks on the nuclear facilities and related coastal infrastructures. To facilitate the assessment of the impact of typhoon waves over the whole Chinese coastal line, detailed data of the sea state over this region is necessary. For this reason, a numerical sea state data base, which includes the North-West Pacific Ocean is under construction. It will range over several decades, to provide long-term wave data in this area. An oceanic wave model with a triangular mesh covering the whole Pacific Ocean has been set up by using the third generation spectral wave model TOMAWAC. The model is calibrated by comparing the simulation results over the period of January 1999 and during typhoon Muifa (1109) to buoy data. The numerical result of significant wave height (SWH) shows an excellent agreement with the oceanic buoy observations. The minimum values of the average bias between prediction and measurement is around 2–3 cm. The prediction of mean period (MP), however, is less accurate than the results of SWH. The model underestimates the mean period with amplitudes of around 0.6–1.2 s. Five different configurations of the source terms in TOMAWAC were tested during the calibration to find the best results. The comparisons show that the BAJ configuration can provide most accurate results of SWH. The predictions for configurations JKD and JWD show best results of MP. However, the SWD configuration provides the worse results for both of SWH and MP.
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HUNG, R., Y. TSAO, D. JOHNSON, A. CHEN, and C. LIN. "VHF radar observations of mesospheric density distrubance caused by Typhoon Susan and tropical storms in the western Pacific area." In 27th Aerospace Sciences Meeting. Reston, Virigina: American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.2514/6.1989-765.
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Kidoura, Yusuke, Ryota Wada, and Takuji Waseda. "On the Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty of the Wave Resource Assessment in the North West Pacific." In ASME 2014 33rd International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2014-24496.
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This paper presents the results of quantifying uncertainty associated with the wave resource assessment in the North West Pacific. This study classifies uncertainty into 2 types: aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty. We defined the source of aleatory uncertainty as inter-annual variability of wave power and the source of epistemic uncertainty as difference between a model and an observation. Spectral analysis of inter-annual variability and correlation coefficient analysis between inter-annual variability and climate index such as Arctic Oscillation are conducted to quantify aleatory uncertainty. The results revealed that aleatory uncertainty in North West Pacific differs from that in North Atlantic. Regarding the cause of inter-annual variability, seas surrounding Japan can be classified into 4 regions: the sea of Okhotsk and Eastern Japan with high correlation with the North Pacific Index, the Japan Sea with Arctic Oscillation and Southern Japan with the typhoon frequency. These results provide the characteristic of uncertainty in wave power assessment in the North West Pacific, and they are helpful to establish standards of wave resource assessment in Japan.
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Paik, Jeom Kee, Jung Kwan Seo, Jae Myung Lee, and Jae Hyung Park. "Ultimate Limit State Assessment of the M.V. Derbyshire Hull Structure." In 25th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering. ASMEDC, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2006-92384.
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The Capesize bulk carrier, M.V. Derbyshire, sank in the North West Pacific during typhoon Orchid in September 1980 when she was on a voyage from Canada to Japan carrying fine iron ore concentrates. Since then, extensive investigations of the vessel sinking have previously been made in the literature primarily by the formal safety assessment (FSA) technique to explore the loss causes, but serious speculation on the failure of hull structures has been lacking in such investigations. The present paper investigates the possibility of the vessel sinking initiated by the failure of hull structures rather than by other loss scenarios such as hatch cover failure subsequent to water ingress into the cargo holds. Ultimate limit state assessments of individual stiffened panels and hulls of the M.V. Derbyshire under extreme bending moments during the last voyage in storm are made using ALPS/ULSAP and ALPS/HULL computer programs. It is concluded that the M.V. Derbyshire could have sunk by hull girder collapse with or even without unintended water ingress into cargo holds. Important insights and findings developed from the present study are summarized.
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Aurelio, Mario, Kristine Joy Taguibao, Edmundo Vargas, Maria Visitacion Palattao, Rolando Reyes, Carl Nohay, Roy Anthony Luna, and Alfonso Singayan. "Geological Criteria for Site Selection of an LILW Radioactive Waste Repository in the Philippines." In ASME 2013 15th International Conference on Environmental Remediation and Radioactive Waste Management. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/icem2013-96127.
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In the selection of sites for disposal facilities involving low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste (LILW), International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recommendations require that “the region in which the site is located shall be such that significant tectonic and surface processes are not expected to occur with an intensity that would compromise the required isolation capability of the repository”. Evaluating the appropriateness of a site therefore requires a deep understanding of the geological and tectonic setting of the area. The Philippines sits in a tectonically active region frequented by earthquakes and volcanic activity. Its highly variable morphology coupled with its location along the typhoon corridor in the west Pacific region subjects the country to surface processes often manifested in the form of landslides. The Philippine LILW near surface repository project site is located on the north eastern sector of the Island of Luzon in northern Philippines. This island is surrounded by active subduction trenches; to the east by the East Luzon Trough and to the west by the Manila Trench. The island is also traversed by several branches of the Philippine Fault System. The Philippine LILW repository project is located more than 100 km away from any of these major active fault systems. In the near field, the project site is located less than 10 km from a minor fault (Dummon River Fault) and more than 40 km away from a volcanic edifice (Mt. Caguas). This paper presents an analysis of the potential hazards that these active tectonic features may pose to the project site. The assessment of such geologic hazards is imperative in the characterization of the site and a crucial input in the design and safety assessment of the repository.